Moin from Germany,

Moin from Germany,

we have a new winner in the race for the biggest taxpayer bailout in Germany…

WEST LB

The owners of WestLB AG have reached an agreement to ring-fence substantial risks in the Bank´s structured portfolios. Securities with a nominal volume of roughly € 23 billion will be ring-fenced off the Bank´s balance sheet in a special purpose vehicle.

The financing of the special purpose vehicle will be secured by a guarantee from the owners of up to € 5 billion to cover any payment defaults.

The owners will meet any possible losses from these securities portfolios in line with their shareholdings in WestLB up to an amount of € 2 billion, in compliance with their statement of January 20, 2008. Any further losses up to € 3 billion will be borne by the State of North Rhine-Westphalia

Paulson, Bernanke, King & Co have every reason to be jealous…..

Bill - great topic today! I hope we can get some good discourse on the subject. It amazes me sometimes to see some of the games played by the "players" (i.e. - algo-traders) of the market. I find them exceptionally good at taking shares from the weaker hands, including myself! Sometimes I sit there in awe in how they get me out of a position that was well executed. It makes it extremely difficult at times to hold a good position. Simple price patterns and volume help me with confirmation of these indicators and their signals. From there seeing there deceptive behaviors reoccurring regularly and being able to identify it. This all from an intra-day time frame.

And speaking of Quants Bill, you have to wonder what chance do we have. Yesterday's DOW futures were -100 just before the open, then suddenly turned positive, without any BS news. This seems to imply that futures are useless - when the algorithms are engaged. Cisco was -8%, then goes up +9%? It's the electronic casino controlled by crooks.

Caraistas power may not be fast enough to counter this, I think we need to develop our own counter quant algorithms that gives us instant indications of when these things are engaged. Surely there must be indicators to watch that show this.

Speaking of talking heads, the DOW being up 40pts is noise since the DOW is at stratospheric levels 12,000+. That is just 0.3%.

BTW, for those of you tho think your bank deposits are insured, the FDIC is revising the way claims work! Good luck accessing http://www.fdic.gov. Not even Google has a cached version. How is the FDIC going to cope with bank failures for banks who owns millions of customers? Wishful thinking.

Today is a straddle day. Will make the math later.

Hi Bill,

here is a bpi for the gold shares that I follow.I find bpi's pretty usefull the tse bpi has been helpfull for bottom fishing and coincident with gold stock bottoms mostly

http://www.technicalwatch.com/bpi/goldbpi.htm

You can also make up your own bpi at stockcharts, just make a list of stocks and do a p&f buy signal scan. Use a list of 30 I believe is what they recommend. If you have 15 on a current p&f buy signal (15 x 100 divided by 30) gives you your bpi reading of 50/neutral.

looking at the dow bpi over the long term I find it suspicious that it had not been below fifty since mar 2003, recently it hit 13
cheers

I just did a buy signal scan for 100 jrs (being math adverse) and the bpi for these 100 stands at 30 today, fwiw

I am currently reading Murray Rothbart's book, "America's Great Depression" (5th ed.), which can be read online at:
http://www.mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf

This book is highly recommended by Jim Puplava at financialsense.com to give investors an understanding of monetary inflation, its causes and repercussions. It is written from the "Austrian" school of economics view.

For those interested, I would advise skipping the multiple introductions for the various editions, and go directly to Part I on Business Cycle Theory. Where Rothbart describes typical historical government and central bank interventions in the "free market" his descriptions would appear to be "spot on" for the interventions we see today. He also points out these interventions can only delay an economic downturn, and make the ultimate "depression" worse than if no intervention had been taken.

Why am I thinking of Allan Greenspan and water boarding at the same time?

Many banks are in trouble, perhaps deservedly so, for their actions in lending and selling questionable mortgages and commercial loans, but apparently there's even more questionable actions coming into the light.

From a NYTimes article entitled: Papers Show Wachovia Knew of Thefts, by CHARLES DUHIGG

" ... But newly released documents from that lawsuit now show that Wachovia had long known about allegations of fraud and that the bank, in fact, solicited business from companies it knew had been accused of telemarketing crimes. ..." --more at link--
http://tinyurl.com/2lh5m8

These referenced telemarketing crimes were purportedly commited by outfits that paid millions to the bank but cost customers multi-millions.

Is there a need for any bank whomsoever in which there can be no trust?

SiO2, you're spot on with regard to the futures. It is almost always a losing trade to go with the direction of the futures at the open. Price invariably pulls back once all the overnight and panicky early market orders get cleared.

What I find most telling about the BPI is that, while it's volatile, it is moving in a stready downward trend. Take a look a the daily $BPSPX at StockCharts.com, for example. After months of smooth, level sailing above the 70 (overbought level), it plummeted down to 32 with barely a pause. Then it recovered back to 70 again in October and has been stair-stepping its way down since then. The most recent rally only brought the index to 38 from a low of 13.6 -- which may be why some were calling for a resumption of the bull? In any case, that just where the trend line resistance is, and where it turned down again this week.

Turning back to the futures, I see they indicate another weak opening. And Bloomberg provides the reason for this is "concern over widening credit losses"?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXjC_yesIH3I&refer=home

I say, duh? No one saw this coming? Or should it be, huh? As in, is the market playing games with us again?

Good morning all,

OG,
Thanks for skype info yesterday.

Now, How do I get accepted?? I signed on and can see a list of names but no converse. Message about cannot post until host's acceptance. What to do now??

Anyone else has this or what am I doing wrong??

TIA

The bond dad blog recently commented on Market Breadth and concludes market technicals are deteriorating. The $NAAD chart is an eye opener.

http://tinyurl.com/295k52

looks like the spike down in the BPI on january 22 pretty accurately marked the beginning of the counter-trend rally...usually we open (ST) positions on the basis of a perceived edge, and naturally, because we perceive one does not mean we have one (LOL)...following indicators on a daily basis and noting extremes/spikes, combined with the collective thinking that goes on here, can really inform/inspire a trade and give you what amounts to more than a perceived edge...

Nexalogic,

I can see your message but can't reply.

How do I contact you?

TIA.

PS. I will check out help section and read instruct for now.

Trying a small straddle on DELL.

Buy signal yesterday

Feb 19 strike should be profitable if underlying moves to 20.05 (+3.2%) or drops to 17.95 (-7.67%)

we shall see :-)

Long time lurker, first time poster... today's Bill commentary on indicators dragged me out of my cave :)

IMO, the very role of indicators is often misunderstood, and Bill's approach hits this misunderstanding right on the head. Here is the way I see it:

Indicators always work - in a sense that they indicate what they intended to (unless your computer is broken that is). They don't always bring profitable trade because this is not what they are designed for. When thermometer shows outisde temperature -20C it doesn't indicate whether you are going to be cold - that depends on how you dress yourself, and that's the decision its indication helps you make. It's about how you incorporate the indication in your trading approach.

Good trading to all.

You really have to wonder whether our system is focused on protecting the innocent and prosecuting the guilty. The Courts continue to throw a wrench in how regulators can deter acts of fraud. Certainly the risk v. reward balance is skewed in the wrong direction

Court: NY Can't Enforce $1 Million NASD Fine Against Stock Broker

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -- New York's top court ruled Thursday that lower state courts can't enforce a $1 million fine for improper trading levied by a national regulator against a stock broker and his firm.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/169

2nd, As usual.....the "signal" that marked the last buy/bounce was 87% of NYSE stocks under the 200 DMA.

We are currenly (according to Bloomberg) at 84%.
So I would think this would happen again and indicate very oversold conditions where buy programs would kick in.

I would balance this view with technical support levels on the indices.

IOW, the prop desks in Europe push/pull, they continue in the futures here driving prices up or down, then they buy or sell when they have it where they want it.

Extreme negative sentiment is a buy signal.

Patterns and levels I am watching for a clue to todays action:

What my imagination sees as a triangle formation from tuesdays highs and yesterdays higher lows.

$NYSE breadth has seen higher lows for last three days though price levels dont reflect the short term breadth improvement.

I will trade the triangle formation on the FXI EEM and the QQQQs off the trendlines in the direction of the market.

Market will let me know if the trendlines are broken and we go down or up.

QQQQs seem to have led the market recovery yesterday.The traingle formation is not visible on the XLE.

SiO2 and everybody,

Re large algorithmic player detection

I suggest that everybody takes a look at the work that our friend Pascal Willain at http://www.willain.com has been doing in this respect.

He is one of the 16 traders interviewed by Dr.Alex Elder in his 'Entries and Exits' book, and he has posted yesterday here for the first time. That interview grew into a book on the subject at Dr.Elder's suggestion.

As this is a small world, to quote Bill's favorite quote of mine, I can say that both Bill and g034 have recently reviewed it and like the concepts.

Pascal's ideas are based on money flow analysis at the intraday level and reasonable assumptions about trade RoI and human behavior as affected by it, constructively woven together.

Having been fortunate enough to learn in advance about his work and use part of it - first as introduced in Entries and Exits and later via private communications - I can attest that it detects a lot of 'shadowy deeds'. I had in mind to document and post a few examples of relevant plays on Cara 100 stocks but did not manage, to date.

Occasionally, Pascal's posting of yesterday suggests that bond selling as Bill has called it in the context of The Trade of the Generation may be already underway.

Strategically speaking, I think that in order to keep up in this game without wasting too much adrenaline, we have to focus on the larger (inter-day, inter-week) timeframes. The bulk of ebb and flow, as Bill describes it. As long as the market is not totally rigged, there will be a timeframe where market dynamics are larger than any array of black boxes. No distortion survives contact with reality at the end of the day. That's where we will be most successful placing our bets).

(ok, ok, 2nd_ave, Craig and co. excluded, of course)

Good morning. Sorry, I'm running late today.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

KO - to Outperform @ Bear Stearns
MBT - to Outperform @ Bear Stearns
OXPS - to Outperform @ BMO
WAG - to Buy @ UBS

Target Price Lowered:

DELL - $27 to $26 @ BMO
CTSH - $48 to $43 @ Stifel Nicolaus

Target Price Raised:

ATVI - $32 to $34 @ Sterne Agee

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

Vadym- absolutely...if temperature readings have vacillated between 0 and 50 for 8 months, and then spikes down to -20, a motivated trader who follows the numbers on a daily basis will certainly find a way to profit from the steep drop...

March Wheat plus 30 (limit up I think) six days in a row at 1093. Wow!

Case: I think we could buy a few positions in ultra shorts or shorts for the key indices and wait until we get close to 10000/2000 to sell them and just ride the ups and downs in the meantime. Maybe not as exciting!

Windstream up .65 I watched it go across the TV ticker last night with a $10 handle too.....

Good dividend on this little phone co. Another to put on the list with IWA if you're interested in income/dividends.

Re overnight futures:

here's a little something I came across a year ago while running some market studies (I have some A-R tendencies.)

Since about Jan 2002 (actually shortly after 9-11) the NDX returned:
close to open: 65.2% overnight action)
open to close: -35.3%
close to close: 29.3%
So all of the long profits for NDX are accounted for by overnight activities.

Prior to that time (since 1985) this was reversed with:
close to open: -52.4%
open to open: 338.9%
close to close: 286.7%

I see this as strong evidence of the power of overnight activities, and also why I wouldn't follow the intial open vs. previous close.

Freedom57, thanks for posting the information on Murray Rothbard's book, "America's Great Depression."

It reminded me that I actually HAVE the hard copy and should read it. But whether read on-line or off, the work is worth reading. Rothbard was a clear-minded thinker.

Again, thanks for the posting.

Here's a summary of a section from the Financial Services Regulatory Relief act of 2006 that effectively abolishes the 3% & 8% reserves required by the Fed.

"This section provides the Federal Reserve with greater flexibility to set the ratio of
reserves a depository institution must maintain against its transaction accounts, allowing a zero
reserve ratio, if appropriate. "

http://tinyurl.com/38czzg

Hope I'm reading this wrong... I'm not a lawyer but to me it sounds like they ditched a ton of controls in this act... and banks still weren't happy.

"This section eliminates a cap on the valuation of purchased mortgage servicing rights at
90% of fair value and thereby permits savings associations to value PMSRs, for purposes of
certain capital and leverage requirements, at more than 90% up to 100% of fair market value, if
the banking agencies jointly find that doing so would not have an adverse effect on the insurance
funds or the safety and soundness of insured institutions, consistent with section 475 of FDICIA"

Other snippets...

"
This section permits banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System to count as
reserves the deposits in other banks that are “passed through” by those banks to the Federal Reserve as required reserve balances. Nonmember banks already are able to use such pass-
through reserve accounts. "

There are also changes to FDIC process.

Complete amendments are here.
http://tinyurl.com/2zw2j2

My fav.. get out out jail free card.

"Section 720. Elimination of criminal indictments against receiverships

This section amends the Federal Deposit Insurance Act to require that
any criminal indictment against a bank be dismissed if the FDIC is appointed
receiver of that bank. This section also amends the Federal Credit Union Act
to require that any criminal indictment against a credit union be dismissed if
the NCUA is appointed receiver of that credit union. "

Banking law prof blog has more notices and postings around banking rules & regs.

http://tinyurl.com/32d52z

The US is just a big monopoly board... minus the free parking, and with more Baltic Ave's showing up every day...

And then I see this today.

"Release Date: February 7, 2008

For immediate release
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday requested public comment on proposed changes to Regulation D (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions) and Regulation I (Issue and Cancellation of Federal Reserve Bank Stock) to incorporate provisions of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act of 2006. The proposed amendments would remove certain restrictions on the way depository institutions maintain required reserves and clarify and update other provisions of the regulations. "

http://tinyurl.com/2s5jps

According to my understanding, a savings account has a reserve limit while a chequing account can be borrowed out multiple times. Is this act looking to change that to do the following...

" simplifying the restrictions on certain types of transfers and withdrawals that may be made from savings deposits, clarifying the definitions of "time deposit" and "vault cash" to incorporate the substance of previously issued written staff guidance, reorganizing the provisions relating to deposit reporting and to the calculation and maintenance of required reserves"

DaveB: you are a mega stud! I have a "When to hold overnight strategy"..works only during rising trends though regretfully....been playing around with a downtrend on the dailies ...not working so well- inconclusive..too much intervention or whatever.

Have you tested strategies as when to hold during downtrends to play gap downs with inverse ETFs? I dont have enough data on downtrends and not willing to gamble with my money for real time tests.

If you find a strategy for knowing when to hold in downtrends..maybe we can swap strategies? :>)

QQQ breaking out of that triangle...

EEMTrader - thanks - so I'm an anal-retentive mega-stud! Quite a combination...

I haven't looked at what you mentioned, but likely will this weekend!

If people find this sort of data study valuable I'll post some of it occassionaly.

Dave B..remember its the strategy the day before that matters..look at last hour action on price and volume and closing prices off its ATR...:)

hedging LT positions in SNDK/INTC/CSCO with a little QID at 51.73...

NOT over $5.

NOT on a run.

Correction: TESTING the triangle. Haha.

PM stocks and energy strong out of the gate. All green here. PAAS, SWC, and PAL are the scalded dogs.

Looks like they are rotating into tech today.

Technical Indicators:

An interesting book is "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems" by J. Welles Wilder Jr..

His work is definitive.

Wow! Platinum up to $1874/Toz and Palladium at 435.50!

SLW and SDRG hot.

SPY, DIA, and QQQ Straddles updated below.

Buying SPY straddle, needs 3.3% next week.

http://nexalogic.com/istrangles.html

Thank you for the NOT heads up guys!

I'm getting a little giddy on this one!
My IRA is up 30% on NOT.

maromatics -

When did you say you are exiting your long gold positions?

A little into tech, mostly basic materials and energy. Banks still have a bad limp...

NIce one Craig - feels good doesn't it?

I caught 5 minutes of Mad Money last night while feeding one of our 7 week-old twins. Speaking of cars from yesterday, I think my 12 year old Integra coupe is very much in the distribution zone :).

Anyway, was very surprised to hear Cramer warn not to touch tech until the fall. Claims that tech is entering a seasonally weak period (something to do with Europeans vacationing?). He thought it might be good for a trade for the next two weeks, leading up to some tech conference, but claimed the institutions always take that opportunity to offload positions.

Anyone have any stats on how frequent or infrequent intraday reversals occur for PMs/GDX?

Fed Non-Borrowed Reserves,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a7EAJelhvLh0&refer=home

craig- congrats...no more than 2 drinks on the plane...

exiting appl and QQQQs for now

craig, add frp to that telecom list. I have had my hand over the buy button on this one several times this week...still hesitating.
gray

craig, your NOT doing as well as my PAL...:)

does feel good!

market up nicely this morning, so now we must see if the afternoon weakness strikes again....

exiting EEM FXI

watch for when the euro markets close...we're learning bill :)

Photogray, re FRP, I have this note from 1/18/08:

Attention FRP shareholders. Just received word that management has killed the dividend. This is not commonly known as yet. Time to get out? Posted by: Bull Hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 18, 2008 2:35 PM Re: FRP dividend Slashed from $1.59 to $1.03. Posted by: Bull Hunter [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 18, 2008 2:40 PM

BH - any follow up on this - I don't see anything public from FRP

Thanks cyderman.... I had not seen those posts nor read any news on that.
peace
Gray

re FRP SEC filing Form 8-k filed yestetday......
"(iii) a 35% reduction in the Company's anticipated annual dividend rate following the Merger until such time as the Company satisfies certain financial conditions set forth in the Stipulation; "
so its a fact jack.
gg

USD down about 0.30%, @76.622. Interesting thing is the eight currencies on my screen are all up vs. the USD. Usually there's one to three on the other side, not across the board like today.

On another topic, notice Bill's past comment about RSI moves in a bear market has merit. I notice opportunities on good companies on an upturn thru 20 on the daily RSI 7 and time to sell when 60 daily RSI 7 broken on the downside. No guarantee they'll reach that 70 RSI

Europe must be closing . . . moving down now?

leaning towards pressing the short side...adding to QID here...

Apology to the board. Too busy this am to post GDX trade as I bought it this am and sold this am for a nice day trade profit.
Remaining position is UNG and holding. Balance in MM cash, US gubmint savings bonds, and some American Eagle gold & silver coins.

Getting ready to run...
Gotta Thank Bill and the Caraistas for the profitable day and returns on my IRA with NOT.
Many eyes beat two.

"Proof of Concept" that the community works as intended. We could add JCP/CSCO/SNDK/YHOO (and more) in the last week or two as well.

Took profits on today's QID trade (Thanks 2nd) and leaving my longs on the table.
No worries 2nd, it's business so I'm not partaking of the drink. Know I'm happy drunk inside though!

Give em' hell for me while I'm out and have a great weekend. I'll be here bright and early Monday.

How does one find the current market price for NOSOF or NOSOF.PK? My Yahoo and Etrade accounts don't give a price til the end of the day, and IB doesn't allow me to trade it. Any one know the USD price currently? thanks.

Allen...

Etrade..will give you current bid and ask on nosof...

How does one find the current market price for NOSOF or NOSOF.PK? My Yahoo and Etrade accounts don't give a price til the end of the day, and IB doesn't allow me to trade it. Any one know the USD price currently? thanks.

Posted by: allen [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 8, 2008 12:37 PM

finance.google.com - CVE:NOT

You can use yahoo finance as well, just use not.v as the ticker

Adding to HND.to, 1/2 position (natural gas 2x down). Target is April contracts.

Allen...USD

Can be found at www.kitco.com

Bottom right side

cuurent 76.69 -17

allen - IB will let you trade NOT on Venture exchange. They will advise against if you don't subscribe to data feed, but you don't have to. Once you are in a position, the recent price (in $C) will be shown in the account valuation data screen. Use NOT as ticker, and select Venture as exchange.

yahoo.com will give you a slightly delayed price if you use NOT.V as the ticker.

Thanks everyone.

USD can also be found at

www.ino.com

upper right corner. If you click on it, chart will appear with last trade, bid, ask, etc.

Here's a jolly bit of news about what OUR government is up to with their corporate whores.

If this doesn't curdle your blood, then you're already dead.

http://www.aclu.org/privacy/spying/15740prs20040809.html

Closed out position in UNG. Looking for a correction as there is a developing RSI 7 negative divergence.
Good trading to all.

2nd_ave,
What's your take on the last hours worth of activity on the dow?

ALOHA !!

cyderman ... I just saw a Yahoo Financial that Alcatel is scraping its dividend due to losses. Amazing how GM can have huge losses but still pay a dividend, is that magic or just poor management or is it a con job? Too many people remember the old saying, "As goes GM so goes America"! As a shareholder I would sell on such notices ...

ON THE EU
Earlier this morning I went to the home page for Yahoo and I saw a "teaser" on an article about how European Banks are going against each other on how best to fight inflation. I thought I would come back in a few minutes and it would still be there but it was gone from the home page. I searched through Yahoo News and did not find it. Anyone out there see that article? If so please post a link. Thanks ...

I watch for such articles that send red flags up about the EU, especially banking, because when EU banks or EU governments are in disarray about economic and monetary issues then it bodes badly for the Euro. I mean how can you have a "union" when there is no union of direction?

What "imf" posted today about the German bank West LB and the "ring fenced" manuever is a joke and German Taxpayers will bite that one. Such are the red flags for the Euro. The Euro is basically nothing more than a German Mark. Naturally if anything ever happened to crack the supposed "strength" of the Euro it would drive currency traders out of the Euro and irrationally give the US Dollar some strength and even a sustained rally. I also believe gold and silver would benefit ... Eventually trading FIAT becomes a game of jumping from one sinking ship to another in the hopes one of those ships won't sink!

Remember all paper money was originally intended to do was to be a receipt for "real money" ... gold and silver. To make it "convenient" instead of lugging around those heavy gold coins! OH SO HEAVY those one ounce coins are! OH MY BACK!!! Thanks to those ever so kind banks I now don't have to worry about a big chiropractor bill! This whole "receipt" thing has gotten out of control. Give 'em an inch ...

MORE GIVE EM AN INCH
Perspective ... When Social Security was started in 1935 the retirement age was 65 because the government knew life expectancy was less than 65. Back then there were 90 workers paying in for every retiree. By 1950 it was down to 16 and now it is down to 3 and before 2030 it will be lower than 2! The way jobs are fading away it may be down to 1. Can it go to zero?
FROM: "Funding Crises In Social Security" by John A Svahn(Commissioner Of Social Security 1982)

ON FDIC
wavesmash ... Thanks for the update on the FDIC regs. As you guys know I posted in the past about the shaky ground the FDIC would be on. Changing the rules to put the burden onto deposit holders by creating loopholes is a red flag! I suggest finding a private bank or a mint! You will find that "promises" in FIATLAND are not worth the paper the money is printed on, especially since all FIAT is made from is political ego and the human condition. Not something I want to hang my financial future on!

Over three years ago I faxed a list of the TOP 25 US banks with the greatest derivatives exposure to my parents. They scoffed at the idea, yet neither could even tell me what the hell a derivative is and neither had even heard the word. Now look how times have changed!

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ... and that's not very honest!!!!!

Took 1/3 long position in BQI based on chart.

Opened puts on IYT and XLF.

Reopened M50 COF put yesterday for +16% today.
Soon to be in my wallet.

Is there a reason the government will be waiting 5 months to begin handing out the tax rebates? I'm thinking the administration knows the economy is headed for another downturn and if issued now, the rebate will not serve it's purpose. Also, if the rebate is meant to induce spending, why wouldn't rebates be given only to people who actually spend this money....buy a tv, government gives you $100 back....buy a car, government gives you $500 back...etc....

ALOHA !!

Old Goat ... I agree with you and I do the same with IB.

Interesting!

Althought NDX is down about 0.3%, right now both QID and QLD are up for the day!

Clearly these "ultra" shares sometimes trade significantly off their fair values!

QID- scaling out at 52.96...

exiting shorts.

will renenter shorts if we break the weeks lows on the $SPX..

Critical Dow support at 12,120. Triggers triple nested H&S patterns; dominos. At 12,119 as I post.

QID- off the table at 53.32 (undoutedly early, as usual, but safer surfing)...

ALOHA !!

stev1183 ... Here is some insight as to how any rebates will spent!

READ ON:
Stores post disappointing January sales
AP - Fri Feb 8, 7:23 AM ET

NEW YORK - Here's a sign of how shaky the economy has become: Wal-Mart says its shoppers are redeeming their holiday gift cards for basic items — pasta sauce, diapers, laundry detergent —instead of iPods or DVDs.

A few days ago I posted about "value" and I said there will be a return to value. Guess what? WalMart cannot sell pasta sauce and diapers and laundry detergent without mining and oil companies providing the "basics" for human survival. WalMart cannot even sell IPods or DVDs without mining and oil companies. That is REAL VALUE!

onlineaces,

I am looking to sell the long gold positions if, as and when 930 spot is reached, as I am looking for a retest of this week's low before we move on to greener pastures.

If the POG corrects again before going to 930, I will be stopped a bit below 915, just as a profit protection measre.

Of course that this is my "ideal master plan", which may not materialise, as Mr. Market tends not to behave as we wish most of the time...

:-)

But here is a rationale to this. My point is that I do not see enough technical momentum to support breaking out 930, 970 and 1.000 before establishing clearly that the line is drawn at 890 / 896 spot, and to tha end I would like to see a retest of those levels.

Mind you that other notable members of the community are looking for a wider correction for gold, aiming for 780 / 790 as the ideal entry.

Of course that, if as and when those low prices appear, i will be a fabulous buy. My only point is that it seems that the train has left the station already...

This is merely TA. Large pockets are accumulating at these levels, and that can also be seen by he bad media that gold is geing lately.

Keep your eye on the ball, not on the news.

Enjoy.

Opened M121 DIA puts at 4.17. Need luck here.
Good luck with all the volatility!!!

132 is support on the SPY. If we hold again we might go up for another shortable rally.

Well I must be having too much fun trading. Now I will get to learn about sufficient settled funds. I just got off the phone with my broker about my trading being frozen for 90 days due to sufficient funds. (But there were still checks left). I didn't wait for a prior trade to clear the settled fund date before using the money again.
As usual looking forward to getting Bill's book and thanks for all the learning going on here.

You can get around the settled funds issue by adding margin to your account. No way around in IRAs to my knowledge.

gold is rising in all currencies - this means it continues to be viewed as currency and as all currencies are debased, gold will continue to rise in all currencies. This is fundamentals, not ta. At some point fundamentals will trump technicals and, IMO, missing out on this generational bull that may still have years of life left by trying to be "cute" and liquidating total positions is not in my best interests.

There is a difference between taking gains into strength and selling total position into strength. Just sayin'.

What did Jesse say? Be right and sit tight? To me, that means to trade around core position with core amount being just the right amount to allow future purchases into weakness without being "scared" out of your core and enough to profit from unexpected major rallies.

Aurator,
Yes it is a retirement account that will not let me do margins. I am transferring Mo Money in the interim and consider it a lesson well learned. Thankfully there are no fines attached. That would be Painful or should I not say that too loud as someone may here me.

FETV talking up munis and one individual talked up corporate bonds. Must be time to sell.

Selling 1/2 of my SKF position at $111 (I bought it at $101 on the day of the last rate cut) and still keeping the SRS position that I bought at $111 on that day (I will sell half of it when SRS hits $121). This is the same scaling-in and scaling-out method that 2nd_ave uses intraday but applied to a medium time horizon (I "scaled into" another bunch of SKF shares when it hit $92 and "scaled-out" at $97). This is a great concept, and if you start "scaling in" after a large drop in price into sector ETFs (or into stocks that you believe have a solid future, such as Cara 100 stocks), then you pretty much cannot lose, as 2nd_ave said.

quent- really have no take on the last hour...plan to close flat (ST positions)...in 48 hours HK and Shanghai reopen for trading (at least, as far as i know), and i would hate to try gaming what might happen->china could easily raise or lower margin requirments, raise/lower rates->they know exactly where they want the market to go, and we don't...as for DJIA 12,100, it could be either support or resistance right now, depending on your POV...

but we still have 2 hours of trading left->anything can happen...if it spikes either way, could easily change my mind about holding a position over the weekend...

David,

Not to quibble, but do you mean that you've got a limit in to sell at $111?

SKF has hit 111 in the last hour, but is just under $110 as I type.

JB

INP:
I have been wondering why the India fund INP recently does not track the indain market well.
The answer is here:
http://www.ipathetn.com/pdf/MSCI_prospectus.pdf

ECU Sivler:

Still waiting for that X-mas present.

KRY:
Still waiting for that permit.

Billcara.com
Still reading every day.

I'm with g034 with respect to gold and fundamentals. The fundamentals for gold are in tact and gaining strength not weakness. Today, gold in Euro terms made a new all-time high.

When this thing gets going, gold and gold stocks are going to fly. It will be like trying to drink at the end of a firehose.

I intend to keep all gold related holdings and add on weakness. The strength of the trend is worth the risk to me.

long golds and base metals

TRA looks interesting...support at $41.90..intraday charts look like a bullish flag...anyone still hold fertilizer?

david- exactly...when you're buying into weakness and against the crowd, you automatically have quite a safety margin...when you open a position lower than 90-95% of players (adjusted for time horizon), you've already eliminated X amount of risk...bill's opening comments re CSCO yesterday a great example->after selling off from 34 to 23, Chambers announces essentially good news and it sells off another 10% to 21...at that point, who's left to sell? probably not the sharpest traders..thus giving you confidence that the opposite trade is worth a shot...

Increasing my UXG holding by 20% at $3.35, as I sold 1/3 of my UXG last week for $3.81. Based on the price action in the last couple of months, $3 seems to be a local "floor" for UXG, and buying it near that floor should be relatively safe. If gold price crashes in the near future, then I'll buy the rest of the UXG shares that I sold last week. I am learning, 2nd_ave :), and trying to buy in smaller chunks on the way down, thereby allowing me to buy over a greater range of prices.

Kaimu
That's just the tip of the walmart iceberg.
I was reading a while back that gift cards at Christmas time were a double high five and gut chuckle for Walmart management.
It gave the percent of the unredeemed gift cards. Right now the number doesn't come to mind, but it was way off the charts (maybe 60% or something in that area).
Can you imagine selling a box of imported diapers that cost little or nothing because of unenforced foreign child labor violations. Not only do retailers make a large percentage profit on the sale, but now you can tack another 60% profit on top just by doing an electronic IOU to the consumer that previously never used the IOU (gift card)!
In the past, retailers used that unredeemed percentage the quarter after the Christmas holiday to boost their revenue numbers. From what I read, consumers are cashing in a huge percentage of those once unused IOU's on staples this year. Watch where retail revenues go in the next 2 quarters. Can you say MORE LAYOFF'S in the works.
When those talking heads start pumping retail shortly, read between the lines first!

quent- although i have no take on the final hour of today's trading, i do have a take on the next broad move->down...

trying hard not to trade LT positions (CSCO/INTC/SNDK) right now in spite of the downward bias, as once i mentally remove them from LT status, i end up trading them too often and can caught not holding when the stocks go on to big moves...holding 30% allocations, plan to add on spikes down (or maybe i'll start selling puts), and looking more for the 2-baggers i expect them to be...

JB:

Yes, I placed a limit order at $111 on SKF as soon as I bought it at $101. I don't follow the tape closely, and limit orders work very well for me. The price point at which I place the limit order depends on my perception of the volatility of the stock and on how good my entry is. I know SKF is VERY volatile and I sold the last bunch of SKF at $120 (right before the surprise rate cut). So I figured that my re-entry at $101 was a good one and $111 was a safe target, and I was ready to wait several weeks for it to get hit. However, when I bought more SKF at $92, my position in SKF was already a bit larger than I wanted it to be, and so I placed a limit order at $97 because I viewed that as a "speculative" short-term buy, and so I was happy to take just a 5% profit on it the next day.

Bill:
I’m just now reading your opening commentary and am responding to the following:

"With this background in hand, I noted a deviation between the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) and the BPI for the index ($BPCOMPX).

Using Weekly $BPCOMPX with W-RSI-7 and MACD 50/200, you can see from the StockCharts.com chart that the W-RSI-7 of the BPI bounced to 39.5 this week whereas the W-RSI-7 of the Nasdaq Composite Index itself had dropped to 27.94.
Maybe some of you avid chartists would care to offer an explanation as to why traders turned more bullish (as seen by P&F) than the Index. In fact, from the more important Weekly chart, the Index, and the RSI and the MACD of the Index show little signs of reviving the dead Bull. The Daily chart shows that recent bullishness is likely to soon fizzle. But then, I have been accused of tea leaf reading."

Well, Bill, if you describe yourself as being in primary school, I’m still in the womb (or even a gleam in some forefather’s eye)…but I’m going to attempt an explanation…

I don’t see a deviation or inconsistency.
I stand to be corrected – but isn’t $COMPX the Nasdaq Composite INDEX – weighted.

$BPCOMPX is the number of the components of the Nasdaq Composite Index - expressed as a percentage – which are on a buy signal, as defined by PnF methodology. So, one component; one ‘vote’, if it’s on a buy signal.

So, I believe you’re comparing apples and oranges, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers; and if there’s a deviation, it’s because they’re different.

Regards.

Any news on CNU today? Large drop.

stv

Always wondered what happened to former commodities future traders.

Former trader ordered to pay $11.6 million

(Crain’s) — A former commodities futures trader, reduced to delivering pizzas with his parents’ car, has been ordered by federal regulators to pay $11.6 million in federal fines and restitution to investors the agency says he defrauded.

http://tinyurl.com/yq8nls

FIAT MONEY TAX REBATE

Tax rebates will be based on 2007 Tax Returns

That's the reason they won't begin until May/June 2008

For those who actually pay taxes, they will just endorse it and send it back to the IRS for their 2nd qtr estimated payment.

Incidentally, GROW will be posting their financial results today after the market closes. So this is your last chance to get cheap GROW. :) I already got mine today. :)

Trading GROW is actually a very simple matter long-term. You can easily infer its fundamental value since the net asset value (NAV) of each of their funds is updated every month on all financial web sites. Morningstar updates it first (and currently has it as of Jan 31), while Yahoo is still providing the old data as of 12/31. This is very helpful, as the GROW website www.usfunds.com has the quarterly reports on their funds with the data as of 9/30/07. So you can just look at that data and see that the total NAV of all GROW funds grew by about 5% during 4Q. More importantly, their funds had a dip in August and a hump in October, and since GROW collects their revenue continuously throughout the quarter as a percentage of the NAV of their funds, their revenue for 4Q should be much larger than that for 3Q. If you are concerned that people withdrew money from GROW funds in January, look at the current Morningstar data and compare it with the Yahoo data – the total NAV of their funds increased during January.

Finally, we know that people had large expectations for GROW at the beginning of 2007, and when its EPS stopped growing in 2Q, GROW started selling off. It continued to sell off at the end of 2007, being a small cap company, as investors where shorting small-cap indices and going long DOW. To summarize, GROW seems to have found a technical price floor at around $17 after falling from a high of $34, the expectations for GROW are very low now, its 4Q EPS should be much higher than 3Q, and their long-term prospects are very good (they are in the right business of managing natural resource and emerging market mutual funds that consistently outperform their peer funds and Bill spoke highly of their CEO). Make your own conclusions. Disclosure: GROW is currently 1/3 of my portfolio.

Another "proof of concept".

I'm surprised no one has brought up CTSH today.

Buy alert on 1/16 @ 22.20
Up 15+% today.

Got in on 1/24 & out this morning. Can't resist a 20+% return in 2 weeks. Thanks Bill....

nice one newlearner!

re the tax rebate, does anyone know if the income cut-offs are based simply on adjusted gross income (AGI), or have they made it more complicated?

Is anyone buying the new ETF GCC ?

Up over 3% today and up 9% since Jan 24.

All aboard or wait for a correction?

Opinions welcome.

Individuals with adjusted gross income of up to $75,000 would be eligible for a $600 rebate, while married couples filing jointly with an AGI up to $150,000 would receive $1,200. After those income levels, the rebates start phasing out. Taxpayers with children would receive an additional $300 per child.

http://tinyurl.com/yryjfc

http://tinyurl.com/25yg9a

all - where can I get historical intraday data on the various indexes?

likely that I'll exit my ultralong NDX at eod today, holding the ultralong XAU through Mon

I'm guessing all this buying is short covering for the weekend.

Zenob..I think the only thing holding up this market is short covering...

Just shaking out the week put holders, so they can take this market apart...

out of ultralong NDX - getting a nice exit

DaveB..try yahoo..I heard they have data..or your broker...

First bite RRPIX done. Starting to put on the "trade of a Gen" a bit early in stages.

I'm selling puts on companies that I would like to own in my LT taxable portfolio. My goal: dividend growth and low (or no!) turn over.

If I'm put, fine. I wanted the company and bought in at a lower price. If not put, I'll resell at expiration.

I figure this is the only way that I can make money during this rocky period, i.e., via the put premiums.

Companies on my list include: GE, XON, PEP MCD, EV, ECL, PG, BDX, NUE, JWN, KO. All have rising dividend histories and foreign exposure and are well off their highs.

All comments on the wisdom of this approach are not only welcome, but appreciated.

Thank you!

(And Kaimu: thank you for all your comments.)

Thanks David, I've been trading in/out of the ultrashorts - including skf - for the last 6 months to varying degrees of success.

I have found that I do best to restrain myself from taking profits and try to trade on weekly or longer basis. Of course this means getting in at favorable entry points (that's been the harder part for me).

Did your limit go through at $111? Nice call if it did!

I'm not sure that this rally was all short covering. GOOG, AAPL, RIMM were all solidly up on the day from the beginning and even with the S&P down 1%. S&P 1320 has been tested several times which will make traders more comfortable with defining risk. The banking index has made a higher low (so far). Seems like the chances for another swing up into options expiration are decent, although particularly bad news might break the support.

JB:

My limit order of $111 on SKF did go through. That would be a nice call for an intra-day trader who purchased SKF today, but I fully expect to sell the remaining half of my SKF at $19.90 (which is where I placed my next limit order) within the next few weeks, and so if my limit order would not have been executed today, then it might have been executed on Monday at an even better price. :)

I'll probably place a buy limit order on SKF now at $105, since I always want to keep some ultra-shorts as a hedge on my longs, and so if SKF falls below $105 I wouldn't be very concerned -- it will still be a very good entry price.

Live money show videos from Orlando now and into the weekend.

http://tinyurl.com/2xtp6d

Should have found earlier...

David,

I'd recommend selling your remaining SKF before it get's to $19.90.

Re. the NOT spike.

McFauld's Lake, McNugget, it's all McEwen. He is is scooping up in shares and warrants in both NOT and BMK. In the case of NOT, he gets shares at $4, plus warrants at $5.

After the BMK announcement was made last October, the shares jumped to over $1, to then drop to the current $0.60. Perhaps the same will happen with NOT, which spiked up today and made many here happy.

My approach with these is to keep a small core position and keep trading in and out to reduce the ACB. So far, so good.

NOT:

Each unit was priced at $4.00 and consists of one common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share of Noront at an exercise price of $5.00 for a period of two years from the date of issue.

Bought by Rosseau Asset Management; Pinetree Capital Ltd.; Robert McEwen, President, Evanachan Limited; Pierre Lassonde, Chairman, Franco-Nevada Corporation; Sprott Asset Management; and Northfield Capital Corporation

BMK:

Gross proceeds of $10,000,000, through the sale of 25,000,000 units of the Company. A total of 15,625,000 units of the Company will be sold on a "hard dollar" basis (the "Hard Units") at a price of $0.40 per Hard Unit for gross proceeds of $6,250,000. A further 9,375,000 units of the Company will be sold on a flow-through basis (the "FT Units") at price of $0.40 per FT Unit for gross proceeds of $3,750,000. Each Hard Unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant (the "Hard Warrants"). Each FT Unit will consist of one flow-through common share and one-half of one non flow-through common share purchase warrant (each whole warrant an "FT Warrant" and collectively, with the Hard Warrants, the "Warrants"). Each Warrant will entitle the holder thereof to acquire one common share at a price of $0.50 for a period of 24 months from the date of issuance.

Bought by Sheldon Inwentash - Chairman & CEO, Pinetree Capital Ltd., Robert McEwen - Chairman & CEO, US Gold Corporation, Pierre Lassonde - Chairman, Franco-Nevada Corporation, and Randall Oliphant - Chairman, Western Gold Fields Inc.

ALOHA !!

Continuum Resources-CNU
Yes based on the last NR CNU gave up Natividad to prior Mexican management and sometimes doing biz in Mexico and other countries it's like that. Didn't Stelco in Canada get heisted? It can happen anywhere so long as corruption is permitted to flourish! Lets hope former managment doesn't need CNU help!

What did I do? I held ... A look at insider info shows management is buying on Feb 5. I also watch for any moves from Agnico Eagle(AEM), Sprott or Fortuna, which are the BIG DOG shareholders of CNU. They did not sell one single share through all this! CNU still has a huge property and still has valuable deposits and past producers. I am not selling ...

PRIVATE COMPANIES
I also invest in "private" companies. I usually choose ones that are paying dividends as a rule but not always. Sometimes I buy based on some sort of exclusivity or because a company recognizes a trend and is essentially doing what I'd be doing if I was a multi bazillionaire! This means I also get burnt. One company I bought into way back was Radiology.com. They had a great idea of storing x-ray and other types of fil data digitally. That way through doctor approval you could access such data without having to go through the mail or delivery delays. Long story short GE beat them to the punch. After that the CEO went to another venture via medical connections in Los Angeles called California Health Scan using PET etc. I put $20,000 into the venture and it fizzled because insurance companies would not approve the procedure. I looked into what I could do. I did a search on the internet for "fraud" and came up with some info about CEASE AND DESIST ORDERS on the CEO and the company. SO I called the State and reported I had purchased shares after the orders were in force. With any large bureaucracy I was out in a waiting line that lasted for three years. Today while going through my mail I got a reply. The State of California sued California Health Scan and got a settlement for 80% recovery. The first check will be paid on March 31st and I will get more checks each quarter until it is paid off in about three years. For me it works out close to $450 a month. If the company and the CEO fails to pay then a stipulsated judgement will be filed for 100% of the entire market cap of the company which is some $3mil or 1000% higher. The bottom line is my complaint did not fall on deaf ears. I just assumed it did since I never was contacted until the settlement was made on Jan 9th. The State Of California works in mysterious ways. At the letterhead was Arnold Schwarzenegger's name ... My old Malibu party buddy from the early 70s! HA!!!!

While I have lost money in both public and private sectors you can never really give up or lose hope. Sometimes, not all the time, you can prevail even if it takes three years. When you are knocked down ... always get up!

Fiero Sues FINRA Over $1M Fine After Court Takes His Side

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
February 8, 2008 3:59 p.m.

By Carol S. Remond
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

One day after New York State top court sided with him, former broker John Fiero is suing his former regulatory organization to make sure he'll never have to pay a $1 million fine levied against him and his firm some eight years ago.

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/170

> David, I'd recommend selling your remaining
> SKF before it get's to $19.90.

> Posted by: telenetworxx at February 8, 2008 5:31 PM

Why do you say so? Do you think all the bad news for the financial companies have been seen and only better times are ahead? December has seen record numbers of home foreclosures, and these foreclosures have not propagated yet into writedowns for the banks holding these loans. The maximum number of ARM resets will be in May 2008, and consequently bank writedowns should be steadily increasing until the end of the summer.

Also, if Bill's "sixth sense" is right and new talk about inflation will start in 2008, then financials will fall a lot, as they don't like inflation, rising bond yields and the chance or rising interest rates.

Or are you expecting some good news for financials in the short-term and are just advising selling SKF now and re-entering at a lower price some time later?

telenetworxx -- I am sorry, I didn't realize that I have mistyped my price limit on SKF. Naturally, it is $119.90 and not $19.90. :)

2nd_ave,

Would you please explain your method of scaling into and out of trades?

Thanks.

naples-

i start with a predetermined (but somewhat flexible) dollar amount (or percentage of portfolio) to allocate to the position. the greater my perceived edge (and how each of us makes that determination is of course a highly personalized process), the greater the amount/% allocated and the greater the fraction i use for scaling in...

will also risk higher amounts when trading sector funds than individual stocks (a single stock can easily go to zero [even widely-owned 'blue-chips' like Enron, right], whereas a sector will not (at least not for the 'lifetime' of the trade)...

fractions- typically 20-25% of allocation with each trade (entry or exit)-> this is b/c:

a) no one can time the bottom or the top, and
b) timing the bottom is especially hard for me, as my preference is to trade against negative sentiment, which makes my entries invariably early...but i'm used to it, and if a trade does NOT initially go against me, i'm always [pleasantly] surprised...

this week my trading was 'off,' so in general my positions maxed out at 35-40% of normal...the first two weeks of january, i was fairly confident we were overdue for a steep drop (and my confidence seemed to carry over/accelerate with each passing day)->therefore went to the upper range(s) of allocation...intra-day, if/when i sense the likelihood of a major move or imminent reversal, i will sometimes press the trade by spiking the position to 125-200% of normal)...

table games- absolutely not recommending anyone spend serious time in a casino...however, a few hours at the craps table can (apparently) hone your day-trading instincts...you learn to play against or with the crowd, when to press your bets and when to walk away, money management, and how to recognize certain set-ups that seem to also occur when trading capital markets...(i've mentioned this before, but i really think the line used by lynch to pitch the old magellan fund [investing, not gambling] was hilarious...will hasten to add i also think highly of lynch's trading acumen)...

finally, i should add that i've only been day-trading for about a year, and only b/c it fits the current environment...ie, volatility rewards frequent trading and punishes buy-and-hold positions...when the next bull starts->i'm back to buy-and-hold ...(and i suspect if i were to continue day-trading at that time, i will be taught a few fast lessons and/or end up missing the bulk of upside moves...in fact, i ended up missing the entire move in gold/miners from 750 on for that very reason...)

good luck...

GemmaStar,

I really like what you are doing there. If I had the capital to be put those stocks (if need be), I would definitely allocate a part of my portfolio to a very similar strategy with similar, if not some of those very same companies.

That's where the Cara 100's would come in handy. Ahhh, to trade prices in round lots of companies over $2.00.... I can see it now.

For now, because I'm young enough to make some mistakes, have conviction, and the prices are right, I'm venturing wholeheartedly into the junior gold arena.

Thanks for the support, Eric.

In my IRA, I plan to do some buy-low; sell-high trading a la Cara. (I can't wait to buy Bill's book. I keep checking for its availability.)

I am following the strategy I learned from Lowell Miller's book, "The Single Best Investment" for my taxable portfolio. I highly recommend the Miller book, especially if you're young.

You don't know me. I try to suggest areas of reserach. I started posting maybe a week ago.

I kicked arse , royally.

Re: Buying bullion and the Tulving Company

Anyone have any experience buying bullion from them? Positive or negative would be very appreciated.

SteveC, goldmoney.info, a site which formerly was a quite useful metals discussion forum and now is something different, has a dealers discussion section, grouped by vendor. "PM Dealer Feedback"

I believe the word on Tulving is they are pretty good, if you can swing the large minimums. If you check them out, check the Apmex postings. It's just page after page of excellent reviews of Apmex. You'll see why I'm a fan. And make sure to read the Northwest Territorial Mint section to learn why you should never, ever, ever, buy silver from NWT. Page after page of nightmare stories.

In a related note, there are now stories of counterfeit PCGS graded slabbed coins coming out of China. This is really bad news.

typo: it's goldismoney.info

Thanks MikeNYC.

Heard about the counterfeits several months back. I figured if the dealer can't tell a non-slabbed Eagle or Krugerrand is a counterfeit, I have no chance so why worry about it. Definitely staying away from the fancy stuff.

2nd_ave,

Thanks for explaining your method of scaling stock trades.

What indicators do you watch during the day to determine market direction, and what method(s) do you use to determine that a market reversal either up/down is occurring?

Any insight will be appreciated.

ALOHA !!

From the GREAT DEPRESSION to the GREAT SCAM ... Run for the hills and look who was instrumental in overturning Glass-Steagall in 1999! This is why I keep saying we need a Constitutional amendment to seperate banks from the State!

READ ON:
Oct.-Nov. 1999
Congress passes Financial Services Modernization Act

After 12 attempts in 25 years, Congress finally repeals Glass-Steagall, rewarding financial companies for more than 20 years and $300 million worth of lobbying efforts. Supporters hail the change as the long-overdue demise of a Depression-era relic.

On Oct. 21, with the House-Senate conference committee deadlocked after marathon negotiations, the main sticking point is partisan bickering over the bill's effect on the Community Reinvestment Act, which sets rules for lending to poor communities. Sandy Weill calls President Clinton in the evening to try to break the deadlock after Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the Banking Committee, warned Citigroup lobbyist Roger Levy that Weill has to get White House moving on the bill or he would shut down the House-Senate conference. Serious negotiations resume, and a deal is announced at 2:45 a.m. on Oct. 22. Whether Weill made any difference in precipitating a deal is unclear.

On Oct. 22, Weill and John Reed issue a statement congratulating Congress and President Clinton, including 19 administration officials and lawmakers by name. The House and Senate approve a final version of the bill on Nov. 4, and Clinton signs it into law later that month.

Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weill's chief lieutenant. The previous year, Weill had called Secretary Rubin to give him advance notice of the upcoming merger announcement. When Weill told Rubin he had some important news, the secretary reportedly quipped, "You're buying the government?"END

The people now running for President and yelling out the word "C-H-A-N-G-E" are the ones that created the debt landscape of today. The last thing these candidates ever want to see is CHANGE!

I was reading where Warren Buffet is saying the banks don't have a liquidity problem they have a "sucker problem"! They cannot find any more suckers to buy their fraud like they did a year ago! I would have to correct Warren Buffet by saying he needs to use the "C WORD" and I am not talking about CHANGE, but instead "C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E" ... CONFIDENCE is what is on the line here and the US Banks are losing that battle. Once the US Banks fail then so goes the US Dollar and then the US government and all its worldwide military operations and foreign aid. I return to the concept of government finance and there is only three ways the US government can finance its day-to-day operations. TAX ... BORROW ... COUNTERFEIT(print). Without a tax base and without "confidence" in US paper what's left? The lost confidence in the US Dollar will put every other major fiat currency under the microscope. People holding paper in Europe and even China will have to ask themselves, "What good is a World currency if it collapses and becomes worthless?" Then they will consider the odds their country's paper is just as worthless. That will be the day when the "barbarous relic"(gold)will start looking a lot less "barbarous"!!

Gold supply has been declining over the past six years and now that South Africa has shut down production due to power shortages recently there will be ever more limited supply. Under conditions of limited supply and increasing demand where will the historical gold supply spigots be? That would be gold miners in production as well as the junior explorers that control future gold supply. GLD or SLV do not own production or the rights to future production. These bank owned entities have no direct claim to production and produce nothing except paper receipts, which is exactly what a US Dollar used to be. A receipt for real money(gold)stored in a warehouse somewhere and who is the custodian? Its the bank with the largest exposure to derivatives in the World and a court documented agent for the US Federal Reserve who is immune from prosecution or audit ... JP Morgan. Now that's what Warren Buffet calls "dumb money"!

Arrrggghhhh, you hit hard, Kaimu.

And thank you.

There is one word in our lexicon which is synonymous with "whore", and that word is
L-O-B-B-Y-I-S-T !! These people, who operate solely for their own aggrandizement and totally without regard for the viability of society, need to be OUTLAWED ! K Street in Washington needs to be shut down and turned into massage parlors...that would at least be an improvement over the totally vapid current occupants.

Seriously, though, there needs to be a national campaign to outlaw the seeking of legislative favor by persons with a vested financial interest in a given outcome. Step one could easily be to change the tax code to make "lobbying" a NON-deductible expense; that in itself would give corporations pause to consider.

As I read Kaimu's post (thanks, Kaimu) I could not help but reflect on the solid logic which undergirded most of those depression-era legislative efforts. We need to get back to that kind of logical thinking which BALANCES the needs of the society with the often-unrestrained desires (read: greed) of corporations.

Dear Bill and Company,

Hello there! Just saw Kaimu's post re: Glass Steagall and I think this is one of your best. By the way, I think Anooraq resources MAY be finding a bottom here at 3 bucks and preparing, perhaps, to make another run at it.

I have been busy trading the markets of course, and I do check in to see what's happening. I caught a FANTASTIC ride on Taseko mines yesterday (TGB). And (PAL) N.A. Palladium has been my pal. Has it been yours?

I am of course more isolated now but that has it's advantages and disadvantages. Not being able to post regularly was a big change, but my development has been great in isolation. The only time I see another human being is at the supermarket or when I order a pizza (any single females in the Westport area feel free to email). I have, in the year since my first post to BILLCARA.COM become a much more competent market player. Much more competent. And I look forward to fulfilling my destiny, which is to turn 25 large into oh, 3 or 4 million and marry a woman 17 years younger than myself (go John McCain, you 'ol dog!) So she doesn't love me " for me"? Oh, that's too bad:)

Make a lot of money next week people!!!!!!