Is there any new info on the book?

bill- great article, and the recognition is well-deserved...hope the blog continues to grow, and the concept continues to evolve..

cheers

FXF/FXY weak PM. Gold weak, USD must be stronger.

I know they have it looking like a weak open now but the currencies are favorable.

I took profits on QID/SKF this AM. Still have a bit of FXP...waiting.

QID- partial profits pre-market at 49.60->(what david now also refers to as) money mgmt...

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

YHOO - to Buy @ Canaccord Adams

Downgrades:

GS - to Perform @ Oppenheimer
YHOO - to Neutral @ Banc of America Sec.

New Coverage:

OXPS - to Sell @ Merriman Curhan Ford

_________________________________________________

Congratulations, Bill, on your National/Financial Post story.

ISM down, knocks USD....

Now we're negative.

Glad I'm holding the FXP.
Back in QID. I may re-enter SKF but will wait for the open to see if i can get a better entry.

Also, the ICSC-UBS store sales report is out and it shows that retail is still floundering:

http://reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSNAT00367120080205

Oh, and congratulations on your well deserved recognition, Bill!

Wow, that will look absolutely brutal on that Econoday chart when they put this month's bar on there.

Consumer spending restraint & its impact on business is now finally beginning to show up and be publicly recognized in data. Furtheromore, ISM non-manufacturing comprises 90% of the economy.

Gonna be a fun day or two...

Hi,

Re Price of Gold, look here:

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/wfs/2008/html/fs080129.en.html

Quote:

In the week ending 25 January 2008, the decrease of EUR 51 million in gold and gold receivables (asset item 1) reflected the sale of gold by one Eurosystem central bank (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004).

And,

Same source:

In the week ending 1 February 2008, the decrease of EUR 160 million in gold and gold receivables (asset item 1) reflected the sale of gold by one Eurosystem central bank (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement that came into effect on 27 September 2004) and a net purchase of gold coin by another Eurosystem central bank.

At an average price of €620 an ounce or $917 an ounce, this equals an amount of 8.026 tonnes of gold being sold.

OK for you traders I have Jeffrey Saut
http://tinyurl.com/2ev3z7
[ed: replaced link with TinyURL -- please try to avoid long links]

Also, BIDU's target at around $310
http://wallastoninvestments.com/bidu-goldman-with-310-price-target

BUT,

http://metalsplace.com/news/?a=17349

Huge rally in bonds. 2y 1.95%.

Rob W: longurls cause problems, you can fix it with http://tinyurl.com

FXP- out at 90.80...

isaiah- congrats (why do i feel like i'm talking to someone who had bets on the pass line for a 6, pressed the 6 for 3x odds, and threw chips on the hard six for the hell of it->and the dice just came up 3-3...life is like that sometimes)...;)

QID- balance out at 50.25...

As we suspected and wrote about last week (1/31), as soon as the State of the Union, the FOMC meeting and month-end were out of the way the market downtrend would begin to renew itself.

We will be watching to see if today's action causes the number of weak stocks to expand again which would confirm that the upside is once again capped and the downside is in play.

JW
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Cool! Tell Jeffrey to send me his money and I'll invest here at his bottom.....

Grabbing a lil' GFI. Rough open.

Bill,
It is a privilege to be able to read this blog everyday. It is the first thing I do everyday.
Eagerly awaiting the book. Thank you

Good article, Bill.

And, yes, Jonathan Ratner, did a good job of summing up what you do for all of us.

Bravo!

AMEX net gainers....all ultras this AM.

Losers on all exchanges....financials/mortgage lenders.

Bill
Nice to have a little recognition especially with the book publishing but I think he missed what seperates you from the pack. You are a tireless educator that is totally accessable. Those are rare qualities in todays me, me, me world. (Look at pay packages for US Bank boys as proof) I can't imagine many with your stature that would be willing to walk around the PDAC with 2 or 3 dozen of us in tow.

Bill & Co:

Why are market gaps allowed? Has it always been this way?

It seems foolish, and lets say someone trades...well, its no different than going into halftime at 10-10 and returning to the field and its 20-10.

SS

Well Bonds and stocks are behaving normally again. Notice that the 10 year yield is down while the market is down, meaning people are buying bonds as they dump stocks.

Maybe we'll never know why they were trading inversely for three days. Maybe it wasn't important. Or it could have been some kind of signal to the big money out there.

My DIA and NEM puts are looking great now. I'm looking for a break below Thursday's low in the next couple of days. That would be great.

Rob.

I bet bonds were up while the market was up last week because the buying was mainly short covering, not a sudden enthusiasm for stocks.

stockershock: ITs a futures led tape..doesnt leave much for us stock guys ...:(. Watch for wave 2 of selling or attempt to soften the blow...its only 7:30AM.... mind those gaps...

2nd........

My piggishness...finally paid off HUGH...QID out at 50.43 and SDS @62.73 but I got nervous with FXP @91. Might jump back into FXP and play the peaks and dips. Been a great 2 months for me.

[To the Overseers: Hear that?]

Thanks, Bill. Thats great. I ordered a copy for my
brother and brother-in-law. I want them to see that
that you don't have to just follow the herd.

isaiah- re FXP- keep in mind the markets in Shanghai and HK may be closed the remainder of the week for new year's...

EEM, thanks for the input,
I just wonder what level playing field might do for the little guy, if there werent these gaps.

I dont wake up and go to work with my office furniture changed around ;-)
I just think it should be always trading
or no gaps, b/c that only benefits the few

2nd

Thanks.... you truly are a man of the world...I didn't know that. If I do jump back in on a dip, I will be flat by the end of the day.

Thanks again and .....

"HAPPY NEW YEAR ! 2nd_sun"

Bill,
Thanks for the bearish outlook this week. Last weeks rally had everyone like Cramer saying buy buy buy. I took Friday as a big day to go short. I am up over 50% on ever put I bought on Thursday/Friday. I am leavig for Chicago for a week on vacation, so I am closing out all positions today -all puts/shares of ETF-shortfunds(COF,NVDA,INTC,FXP,QID).Up big on everything, going 100% cash, taking the quick profits. Thanks again, and good luck on everyone's shorts. I will be back next week for more trading.
I think the market will keep going down, but I need to be watching it to play.

Finger Lakes,

Re: "Bonds and stocks are behaving normally again"

The way I see it, there are 4 corners to this game where money can flow:

1. equities
2. bonds
3. commodities
4. sidelines

If money was simultaneously fleeing out of bonds and equities last week, then it was necessarily going to commodities or to the sidelines. If I had to guess, I'd say the cautious money was going to the sidelines, while the smart money went long calls in PM / oil and long puts in the stock market.

If I've read Bill correctly over the past few days, any $USD rally will be short-lived, especially with this morning's disastrous ISM report. If the ECB leaves rates where they stand on Thursday this week, as expected, then $USD should turn south again soon. Coupled with recent sales of bullion by CBGA (as pointed out by maromatics) which may have helped to cap gold, the smart money will be well-positioned as PM's start on another bull leg up. At that point, the cautious money on the sidelines plus that which fled to bonds today will likely jump onto the PM train. Meanwhile, equities are in the penalty box until a bottom at 10000 for the DJ, as Bill has said.

I'd keep a close watch on Forex this week as an indicator of gold / $US. Excellent site here: http://www.dailyfx.com/

It seems like the market thinks the worst is over for the homebuilders & commercial real estate. Anyone know what the best analysts are saying?

From what I read, the last quarter for the homebuilders was not terrible as backlog was worked off, but the next quarter will be really bad as there will be no backlog to work off and no significant new sales. It will be all about cash levels and staving off bankruptcy. Anyone have a different view?

MBI and ABK are up solidly today. They have been solid tells recently. Beware of a short squeeze later today.

FYI:
Royal Dutch Shell [RDS/A] is down 2.25 [69.27][11:48EST] from the opening.

Tomorrow [6th] is the ex-divident date and the 8th is the record date. Shell pays a divident of 0.71/share per qtr and has a big buy back program.

Moab,
I think you're onto something with short-covering explaining Thursday and Friday.

French Canuck,
You're onto something too. Base metals were up alot last week I think. And maybe alot of people parked their cash in money markets since bond yields were already so low.

And you think the big money will be positioned in PM's for the next leg up on GOLD. I can see that scenario, especially with further weakness in the mortgage market.

Moab,

I've been looking into puts on XHB for a few days now. I would think there still has to be more downside for the homebuilders.

Rob.

Heard a report from San Diego yesterday that commercial real estate is rolling over big time.

Play this with SRS or puts on IYR. Both have just pulled off the bollinger band and are at a reasonable entry point for a portion of the position IMHO.

or maybe at least a few funds started buying on garzarelli's call...

macro: is there some discrepancy between those two reports, or am I reading them wrong?

Although dollar up today, Everbank’s Daily Pfennig mentions “Aussie and kiwi currencies and their high yields are really on a tear VS the dollar . . . . Simply because of their yield differential to the U.S. and for that matter the rest of the industrialized world!”

One of the reasons I parked some IRA money in FAX last week @ 5.74. Another, Australia is finally getting some movement on its exports to China. Realize carry trade unwind may have some impact, but like the trend here. Not a recommendation, please dyodd.

Great job Bill..... Financial Post article

Your a GREAT teacher

sv

Isiah, is 64v4 a skylark? I'm tempted to remain silent but...my addict advice to you was intended to help you play the market and not get played. If you are like me, after the big wins, we decide we know it all and cannot lose. Therefore the big emotional swings are really what we need to be careful of and to attempt to moderate. I suppose after big losses we tend to give up and beat ourselves. Then too, we need to not play by our feelings, but by our system.
Mutual benefit to all. charlie

Here's the list of AMEX percent gainers.
Thought you might find the symbols useful.
These are all ultrashort ETF's.

EEV Emerging Mkts
FXP Xinhua China
EFU MSCI EAFC
SKF Financials
SSG Semis
EWV Japan
SJH RTH 2000 value
SDK RTH 2000 midcap
SIJ Industrials
RSW S&P 500
SJF RTH 1000 value
SFK RTH 1000 growth
RRZ RTH 2000
SCC Consumer Services
RMS S&P midcap 400

Sign of the Times: Homeless indicator?

Over the last few years during the real estate boom, homeless would have their hand out on the street and ask for a dollar. Actually recall one incident where someone gave a quarter or two to one, only to have the homeless person discard it into the street gutter with a look of disgust.

Today: While running to the cleaners this a.m., there was a homeless person asking for a quarter! Over the weekend, another actually said "spare a dime!"

Writers,

Yes, there is. That's the point.

Don Harrold's Tuesday Commentary:

Good morning.

I just watched an exchange with Charlie Gasparino (CNBC good-guy) and Becky Quick (CNBC "anchor" - the term used loosely, here). And, well, it got me thinking.

The topic was about all the recent bailouts, write-downs, charges, and "stimulus packages". Among the comments was a true gem from Charlie: He opined that it might just be a good idea to let some people lose "their" house.

Because...

Gasp.

Some people LIED on their mortgage applications. The truth is, some people LIED about their income, job status, or even, (no way) their citizenship. And, furthermore, Charlie intimated that the system needs a flushing out to get right again.

Becky Quick was, ahem, "quick" to respond that Charlie made "blanket" statement that did not apply to everyone. There are some people who don't "deserve" to lose "their" house.

That's when I turned to the keyboard to type this.

Someone needs to pass this on to Becky. The truth is that there are NO HOMEOWNERS in danger of losing THEIR homes. The only people in "danger" of "losing" "their" homes are people who DON'T own "their" home. Those people are under contract to pay off a MORTGAGE.

Until such time as the mortgage is paid off, they are glorified RENTERS.

As such, they don't have a "right" to "their" home.

The US is full of people, though, who believe they have a "right" this or are "entitled" to that. Problem is that the country is OUT OF CASH. And, without the extra money to fund the "rights" of your "entitled" neighbors, city, state, and federal governments are at the end of a long, long rope.

The President's "trillion dollar budget" (released yesterday) is proof of that. Looks like we're gonna carry $450,000,000,000 in deficit spending this time around. That's 450-BILLION.

Even Larry Kudlow couldn't get up for that last night on his show. And, Larry is usually a shill for the Whitehouse.

But, somehow, we are going to dig deep. Find a way to continue to fund a war that sucks a billion dollars a day from our children's future. We'll discover some method of extracting cash to bailout banks, mortgage companies, and investment firms who lost billions in the "subprime" meltdown. And, there will surely be some left over to "fund" all those rebate checks and tax refunds.

How will this happen? Easy. "Helicopter Ben" will continue to crank up the money-press.

More rate cuts. More "injections of liquidity". More indebtedness and inflation.

That's the legacy of this sad, debauched generation.

Instead of the right choices we allow our "leaders" to choose wrong - time after time. The error of the current choices will be strapped to the backs of our children. They in turn, will look at us the same way I look at my parent's generation: With sadness and anger that the printing presses weren't taken from "the fed" decades ago.

Thomas Jefferson said, "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

The children are more homeless now than ever. Less homes are owned by the citizens each day. More homes are owned by banks, foreigners, and corporations. All thanks to a monetary system that rewards debt with more debt, inflation with more inflation, and usury for usury's sake.

Dear Becky, that's a "blanket statement" you can take to the bank.
Sincerely,
Don Harrold

Naz crumbling.below morning lowws...

Craig - Thanks for the list of UltraShorts. I don't know of an UltraShort for the $US, but PowerShares has:

UDN US Dollar Index Bearish.

With the Dollar going up now, we might hit a buy point on UDN for the return down. Who knows?

Thank you Spot.
As the USD gets stronger I'm buying more gold and FXF (Swiss Franc).

Last time FXF was around 86. Been near 92 now 91+/-.

I jumped into the BCE bandwagon at 34.86. Go teachers, go.

Let's face it, Larry Kudlow is the shadow president.

Junior PM sector comment:

Yellow Caution Light "Official"

We have moved from an emergency red light decline to a yellow caution light in the junior PM sector. Our indicator on the speculative money flow is the Silver/Gold ratio, or the inverted Gold/Silver ratio chart, as it matches stock prices in the junior PM sector.

The next move would be an advance in the Silver spot price against Gold. Since we are seeing almost exactly the same activity as 2005- 2006, all things being the same, Silver should advance against gold at this juncture due to seasonality.

Comparing any junior PM stock against this chart would give you the status of speculative activity in the share price. A green light for our junior PM stocks would be that the Silver/Gold ratio crosses over the 89-week EMA and the 13 - week EMA crosses the 34 - week EMA definitively.

Note the extreme "buy" indication in the Wilder's ADX, which is no different from excessive lows in the PM sector, so this would indicate an opportunity for the junior PM's very much like several years ago in the gold majors, which had avanced multiples since then.

The company is awaiting drill results from known high grade deposits, but is also awaiting favourable market conditions before the green light occurs. Note that drill results have been delayed up to four months, so I presume the timing of the release of drill results will co-incide with favourable speculative activity in the junior PM market, and Silver well advanced against Gold by that time.

Biggie Silver/Gold Chart:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/11747277@N07/2244837606/sizes/l/

Stunningly sharp decline ($19) in POG in the last half hour.

Sorry, more like $13.

Fred,

Re POG decline: it is getting real close to a 38,2% FIB line from the Nov. 30th low.

SiO2,

Lots of time decay to worry about with BCE...

You know that 2-3 days before the deal goes through it will tank so relatives of the merger parties can get in on the deal...

Perhaps the deflation panic is approaching as Stephanie Pomboy predicted?

Fred,

Apparently 885 held for the second time today, or the trader executing the order on behalf of entity dumping gold is instructed to stop selling at that level...nobody knows.

Fred, gold has a long ways to go to reach Bill's target. I am patiently waiting with an empty truck.Assuming no further Fed rate cutting.

wavesmash: I hope you are right, that will be my other truck backing up. From what I heard and read BCE's fair valuation is around $28, so risk reward is good, and I get paid dividends for waiting (I hope).

Why is Larry Kudlow the shadow president you ask? Its because he darkens the door of our television set.

Here's the same ratio chart close up:

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/2st4tf

WOW!! You have to love these down days when you're on the right side of them!!!

DOW 300 down. I'm thinking we'll have to break through 12K again soon to test the lows.

What's to stop it? The FED can't come out and emergency cut again, unless the bond insurers get downgraded. Then they'll do an emergency 1 point cut but it won't help.

And look at LIBOR, banks are tightening to each other. Yesterday it was 3.18 and 3.14 and today it's 3.22 and 3.16. Fear is dominant once again.

If the bond insurer bail-out plan becomes implemented you can expect a sharp turn-around and some huge short-term gains on the long side. Be ready to jump for sure.

Rob.

maromatics and SiO2,
Aside from absolute values what I find most interesting is the shape of the daily chart and the slope of big moves. In this case, POG was recovering gradually all day and then the bottom dropped out. I don't trade gold or gold ETFs. However, it's an interesting day when equities are getting creamed because of recession fears and gold and oil are sold off. Yes, Bill did call it! Any guess as to what might happen to POG when Asian markets open?

Price hit target. Out of QID and taking profit at 51.28.

Bill, thanks for this comment:
"In other words, I don’t think it’s appropriate for us to be making remarks about top quality people like Jeff and Elaine. They have a job to do that’s different than ours. Ours is just to manage the little basket of eggs we’ve managed to accumulate. To us that’s all that should matter."

You hit the nail on the head when you point out the difference between them advising big capital pools managing billions of dollars and me managing my little basket of eggs - it's an entirely different set of goals and disciplines.

My little basket of eggs was 100% cash for the past 2 weeks till eod yesterday when I went ultra short the NDX. Planning to hold this position for a while. I doubt that the big capital pools Jeff or Elaine advise could ever take such positions.

Fred,

The morphology of the charts in the minor timeframes (1 and 5 minutes) for gold show a pattern composed of vertical falling lines, followed by the immediate resumption of the uptrend as soon as these lines stop.

This means that someone institutional is dumping gold in large quantities, thereby supressing the price.

The charts also show that once those orders are processed, the bullish pattern immediately returns. This has been going on for several days and is extremelly bullish, IMHO.

Actually, today the upwards reaction in prices has been more bullish than yesterday as these vertical lines stop, FWIW.

Reports today account for the ECB having sold 8 tons of gold by last Friday, and that may have been part of the phenomenon.

Nevertheless, selling proceeded yesterday and today.

As for the coming future, of course nobody can predict how much longer these "vertical lines" will keep showing up, and especially if bullish brhavious will immediately resume as soon as these sales stop, as they have been doing for now.

From a TA standpoint, the goal prices suggested by Bill appear to me as too far off (please excuse me Bill), as they would imply a near 100% correction from the last move, which would not be tipical of the bullish environment that Gold is living, unless these large sales keep going through.

However, Bill is far more experienced and knowlegeable than me...so the odds are that he is right.

If these current levels hold (around 885 spot), the bullish sentiment for gold has not yet been hurt, and gold prices will recover as traders can notice that a near 38,2% FIB correction from the large November upswing is almost in, which in regular bull markets is already a "decent buy".

Mind you that this is a bull market in which the large holders of the asset regularly intervene to suppress the price...so not all rules apply as in other bull markets.

Traders may also notice that this is happening on a very bearish day for equities.

Cheers,

Bill, Thank you for all you do. Respect and recognition are well deserved. The article is one proof of that. The Caraistas respect is living proof.
Enjoy the beach
peace from north Puget Sound
gray

Bloomberg reporting Bernanke will report to Congress Feb 14th.

I suspect they will report the bond insurance co re-ratings and such around then.

Ben testifying may be needed to jawbone bad news.

Bill, sorry if my take on Saut was too extreme.
Even today we're not seeing capitulation or a bottom. As has been said, calling bottoms is a mugs game. Aren't we all subject to muggery?

reversal

Bill,

:-)

Thanks.

Cheers,

"Jeff Saut, Tom McManus, Don Coxe, Marc Faber, Elaine Garzarelli, and Michael Panzner are all people I'd love to be sitting around a table with, chatting about markets."

Bill, when you do, please have a podcast!

What's to stop banks with large GOLD holdings from selling it back and forth to each other until the price falls to what they like? They wouldn't lose any money or have any less GOLD if they worked out terms in advance of the sales like at DAVOS.

Rob.

Podcast - what a great idea Seamus! I'm sure the response would be huge!

Not taking it as a knock Bill, you've always been very fair to me.

I was just expressing my uninformed doubt...LOL!

Colin Twiggs has opined that a close below last Thursday's low (about 12,250) would signal that the rally has failed. We currently stand roughly 100 points above that level.

Any thoughts on whether: a)it holds; and b) if so, is there a bounce-back tomorrow???

Seamus, nice exit on QID I'm still in it from monday
gray

Actually was thinking over the last month or so of sending Bill an email suggesting a subscription weekly or monthly Carista podcast to supplement the WIR.

(Maybe even an occasional telecom via Skype. That would be great if one was arranged at PDAC)

Just brainstorming in between monitors.

Re: Gold Spot

Our lowish low should be somewhere between the 13 - week EMA and the 34 - week EMA, $867.- for March 24, 2008.

But bear in mind that bullion may be in accumulation in the banking sector.

Moves in the dollar are relevent on a daily basis, but since gold is now currency, strength in the $US and support in the bullion will mean insurance against negative bond yields.

anyone speculating whether the 3 o'clock buying machine will kick in today?

Forex is something I have been studying lately, which seems to provide rational insight into broad market fundamentals.

An excellent global economic calendar is at: http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/

Here is an analysis of today's ISM Non-Manufacturing index, by David Rodriguez, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com. It confirms Bill's sentiment from 9:00 AM today.

I don't see how $USD can continue to rally on this news while 2-year tresury yields are below 2%.

" Commentary ISM Services Plummets to Lowest on Record

The ISM Non-Manufacturing index was unexpectedly released ahead of its scheduled time this morning, with the Institute of Supply Management citing a "possible breach of information" ahead of the release. The headline index plummeted to the worst in its four-year record, as we saw Employment levels fall significantly below the neutral 50 boom/bust mark. Indeed, the data was almost universally bearish for the domestic services sector, as other notables include a 10+ point plummet in the New Orders index to its lowest on record. Net Business Activity dropped 12.5 points to 41.9--slipping below its 2002 trough at 46.3. Of the very few indices to remain afloat through the month, the Prices Paid index remained elevated near 12-month highs of 70.7. Of course, a slowdown in activity and a pickup in prices is hardly bullish for the broader sector. Such data confirms that the broad economy may very well be in a recession through the first quarter of 2008, as an undeniable slowdown in key sectors may make for negative GDP results through the medium term." - David Rodriguez, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

I am just glad to be here...

It would be great if we could quantify the returns of the individuals here...

I think it would be up with some of the best money managers on Wall Street...If not better :^)

Maybe Jeff Saut was speaking to the bigs, but my guess is that he would like to have that column back.

WWatermelon - I'm not speculating, but I sure am watching this last hour!

Homebuilders - did someone say they had bottomed? Wish it were so. I am a small homebuilder which I consider the same as unemployed, although without benefit of the unemployment insurance. Here in NC there are tons of $1M houses vacant. I personally do not see a bottom for a couple years. As such I have taken to purchase my own unemployment insurance (I hope) in the form of DIA puts, so if everything goes to hell in a handbasket I might just make enough to keep floating. Alternately if things rocket higher and the glut of unsold homes dissipates I can go back to work, at least that is my "logic"

QLD- taking a shot at 71.77...
UYG- 36.99...

new lows breaking now

Got mighty quiet here....think everybody's watching 2nd up on the high wire.....looking good

I have been getting a few fills over the last week (and today!) on some of the water related stocks that I wanted to pick up. If you are interested in what I think is a fairly low risk play (at 3-5year support levels with a stop about 3-5% lower), then take a look at the following:

AMR (at 33ish), CWCO(23-23.5), SJW(29-29.5), CWT(34-34.5)

Each of these do pay a dividend and are sitting at or near multi-year low support. Beware that several are thinly traded and all are small cap. My stops are around 5% below those levels. Take a look, who knows if water actually is resession-resistent (not proof!) but the risk is fairly well defined and has a good potential upside if the market recovers or rotates more defensively.

Note, do your DD, I may have positions, don't be stupid, etc.

Karl

Hi Bill,
Great job and kudos on your being featured in the Fp this AM. Am curious if you are planning on having your book available outside of Booksonbiz.com ?
The cost of shipping puts the total cost of the book at $55.51!!! Will it be available to bookstores in Vancouver?
Keep up the good work.

2nd - are you leaving that QLD trade overnight?

Ack, turn that M upsidedown, AWR.

Global Oil Politics Update

The Saudi's oil production is 200-250,000 bpd in excess of their current OPEC quota, enough to not totally rebuff Bush's request for more oil. OPEC meets in March to consider future production levels for 2008. They are unlikely to willingly do further damage to their economies by creating a large drop in the price of oil. They are already taking a beating by their dollar peg. Calls for a basket of currency approach to trading oil grow.

Here's the latest from the US Dept of Energy.
Bush wants to double the SPR buying up to an additional 700 million barrels...that's about $63 billion at $90 a barrel.

WASHINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The Energy Department plans to spend $584 million by the end of September to buy millions of barrels of crude oil to add to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Bush administration said on Monday.
The money comes from the roughly 11 million barrels of oil the government sold to refiners in autumn 2005 to offset disruption in petroleum supplies caused by Hurricane Katrina. At the department's projected average oil price around $85 per barrel, the funds will not be enough to replace that oil, which the government sold for an average price of $54 per barrel.
In its new government 2009 budget, the White House said the Energy Department would use those funds in the current spending year, which ends this Sept. 30, to keep filling the reserve to its current capacity of 727 million barrels, which would be reached in the following budget year.
The White House then is proposing to expand the stockpile to 1.5 billion barrels.
Oil settled on Monday at $90.02 a barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Energy Department forecasts that crude will average above $85 at least through the first half of this year.
"We will run the risk of not getting back the 11 million barrels," U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman told reporters at a briefing on the department's budget. "We intend to use the money to buy the oil."
Bodman said the department may hold off purchasing the replacement supplies if oil is too expensive. "If (bids) aren't reasonably priced we won't proceed" with the plan, he said.
The department will first study the potential market impact of buying oil and then put out bids to actually purchase the crude, Bodman said.
The reserve was created by Congress in 1975 in response to the Arab oil embargo that cut U.S. oil supplies and caused long lines at the gasoline pump.
The stockpile now holds 698 million barrels of crude at four storage sites in Texas and Louisiana. The department is in the early stages of boosting the reserve to 1 billion barrels by expanding two existing sites and creating a new one in Mississippi.

I'll wager that there are some deeply unhappy people out there now that are regretting listening to all the talking heads that told them to buy buy BUY.

On the plus side my SKF and SRS are coming along nicely. :-)

We're going to be mighty close to CT's call of closing below last Thursday's low which indicates the rally failed.

I'm wondering why Colin Twiggs identifies last Thursday low as the defining point? Appears that the prior Tuesday was considerably lower...

oops - meant "prior Wednesday"

MBIA and AMBAC

Insured loans $1.1 trillion

Combined net tangible assets $12 billion

The proverbial sh*t that has yet to hit the fan.

Just coming over the CNBC wire....BHP to make offer for Rio Tinto ... may sweeten offer 20-30%.

Bill,
Fantastic blog! Saw it in the Financial Post (Canada).
Please feel free to forward to your technical people:
I'm new to financial blogs and email subscriptions. How do I get your blog entries to my email Inbox? My blog reading is typically off-line. Other options, for off-line reading?
I have not had success with your RSS feed links. No option to send straight to email.
Many thanks.
Nathan

charlieatthelake,

"Isiah, is 64v4 a skylark?'

No it is a Bible verse go look it up, and it is Isaiah.

"I'm tempted to remain silent "

I wish you would remain silent in fact I wish you would not even read my posts.

"my addict advice to you was intended to help you play the market and not get played."

Well Mr S&P500 show me a post of mine that has given you the impression that I got played?
Funny for someone who is getting played.... 2007 was a great year for me and so far Jan & Feb
has been even better.

'If you are like me, after the big wins, we decide we know it all and cannot lose"

That is where you missed the mark again.... I am NOT LIKE YOU! I am a
humble person because of the things I have seen in life. I know pride goeth before the fall.
I have seen too many people tumble from high positions to make the same mistake.

'Therefore the big emotional swings are really what we need to be careful of and to attempt to moderate"

charlie... I write my posts to be some what entertaining. I love to kid and joke around... even when I take a hit on a bad trade I will post "Ooooooo the humanity".... I don't take all this very serious. I hold everything in life with a lose grip because I know everything and anything can be taken from you at any moment.

"I suppose after big losses we tend to give up and beat ourselves. Then too, we need to not play by our feelings, but by our system.
Mutual benefit to all.'

If this advice is for all charlie...fine ! ! ! Just don't put my @%#* name on the post ok?????????

Astral, if that doesn't give you chills, look at this chart. http://www.investmenttools.com/thefed/fed_borrowing.htm

yvrapx

I'm in Victoria and ordered the book in early January. The price was listed as 39.95 + 20 for shipping but the invoice discounted the book by 10 and the shipping by 10 putting the total with gst at $42 and change.

Not sure if the discounts still apply but you may want to check.

stv

Golfer... the other overseer...

Where ever you are... the same goes for you....

online->yes

Getting warm in here....can you open a window, Bill?

Isaiah64v4..

I don't think Charlie was trying to offend you. I think he may just have a different trading strategy.

I sometimes find it hard to keep up with the big boyz here, Some seem to be in and out of a trade before I can even look up the stock symbol.

That is what makes this site great...We have long term, Itermediate term and SHORT TERM Day traders...

I enjoy your posts, and I do not think Charlie was trying to upset you in anyway..

Jaketh

On January 17, 2008 you can to my defense against these two clowns...

T H A N K S !

2nd_Ave...

You still in SNDK...?

It held up quite well today, if I may say...

I am long and wrote a few covered calls today for a little protection, but I think 30.00+ is the next stop..:^)

Basketguy

Go back to to Jan 17th.. He wrote this...

"you are playing as an addict. ..... all addicts end in the gutter"

So someone show me how I trade as an addict??? I have made very...very..very... nice gains...and my losses so far are... insignificant.

Hi stvh,
Did you order it off of the Booksonbiz.com site?
Thanks for the assistance.
:-)

I thought covered calls in a bear market was a bad idea?

By the way, I'm still curious about that. Can anyone explain that trading rule to me? Bill presented it a while ago, but I never saw a good explanation of why it is.

Isaiah64v4,

Well, I can't answer for him, I know that most of Bill's reader's are more intemediate to longer term type traders...

I think it is great to have you, Craig, 2nd_Ave and the others that day trade...

I have been known to add a few day trades in my life, and most of them were because of posts here.

I can see how that comment offended you, I do not remember reading it. I just think he was comparing his trading style to yours...JMO...

On the lighter side....

Innovation is not dead. I might toss one of these in my bag for emergencies.

http://tinyurl.com/2e3b49

(Blind link safe for work.)

Isaiah,

Think Band of Brothers and Sisters. Peace, Brother.

MikeNYC...Re:Sndk

I bought in around 25.50 and am hoping to make this one of my longer term holdings...

The stock has already ran up 10% in a short amount of time...

So, I don't mind having the stock that I covered called away from me at this point, because if that happens I will gain another 1.00 per share or an additional 4%...

Just being a little more aggresive in a bear market, with a position I want to build for the long term...

Congrats on the article Bill!

Now if I can only rid myself of this cold that seems to have infected all of Southern Ontario.

That sounds about right. Set a target at which you don't mind getting called and pocket the premium. And in this market, if it gets called away you'll probably get another entry point two days later.

I think I have an idea about the "rule." That is, in general calls are worth less in a falling market, so you face falling prices on securities and get less for the calls, so maybe that's why the rule.

I'm still curious about it and hope someone can flesh it out for me. Maybe I gotta buy the book to find out.

Congrats on the SNDK.

yvr

yes - I ordered from the booksonbiz site - it did not mention the discount any where on the site before I ordered so you should send them an email to confirm

I think Bill had mentioned something about a discount before a certain date...

Stv

Isaiah64v4,

I tend not to post here, as I do not have the time throughout the day, and am not as skilled as you regulars. But, I thoroughly enjoy this community and am increasingly impressed with how few flames get posted towards others...I think this is due to Bill's leadership and the strong commitment by the rest of the community. We've all seen too many sites full of that kind of trash.

I too enjoy your enthusiasm and comments on this blog. You addressed the comments from the 17th already, and demonstrated to the concerned folks that there was no need for their concern. And others from the community supported you. While their comments may not have been tactful, I believe they were well intentioned.

Regardless, you continue to reference the "overseers" - as if you cannot get over it. If they were intentionally malicious, then they aren't worth your time for response...if it was a well-intentioned error on their part, then forgive and move on.

I encourage you to move on and continue to enjoy the dance. Peace.

No...this isn't right. Isaiah, you know we all *care* about one another here.

Please take this chance to rethink the intentions of those who were trying to *help* you. Wouldn;t it be far worse if they said nothing and you ended up having a problem? They're not overseers, their just people with *good* intentions responding to your posts. You were pretty underwater and worried as I recall.

These guys have the best of intentions based on their own experience. They're not big brother. So if the show fits, wear it.

Then when you have big gains, *and we want you to get filthy rich*, you could gloat like mad and we could join in instead of getting dragged into a flame fest. JMO.

I hate when I misspell they're and goof up punctuation. lol.

Be careful what you ask for...

After asking me to do it for months and months, I agreed and I'm being provided some trading capital for a friend. It's not a lot, but it's enough to get started.

I'm pretty nervous and excited. Mostly nervous. I'd rather lose $1000 of my own than a dollar of anyone elses. That's probably a good feeling to have and keep.

I've been thinking through some guidelines. I want to make my rules clear, for managing the money and risk and every other aspect of it. For myself and to be clear with the guy who's capital I will be allocating.

If anyone has seen or even created some guidelines on discretionary trading a staked account, I'd love to see them. My public secondary email account is under the little man icon below my post.

Isaiah64v4 and others,
I approach everyone on this site from a place of respect and have so far had no reason to question that. I believe that your "overseers" have good intentions. I also respect your right to your perception. I believe that henceforth your "overseers" will let you be. It's wonderful to be able to come to a place where we can exchange facts, opinions and ideas without getting flamed. Peace and prosperity for all.

Re: Super Bowl Indicators:

After two sessions of watching the averages and indexes ski downhill, I cannot help but think
of Tom Petty singing "Free Falling" at halftime on Sunday night.

Can't get this '10 and 2' thing out of my head!

Disclosure:
shorts: skf, qid and dug
various long term equities and spec plays.
Lotsa cash!

Craig

Are you serious?

After waking from a long nap, trying to kick the bug that I've got, I see a little "flaming" in the blog. Not used to that here.

The great thing about this blog is the "community" feeling here. That is what brings us together. I'm not sure what is on other people's minds, but for the most part, I don't see a lot of negativity here towards others. Bill has stifled that in the past.

Isaiah has always spoken from his heart. This has led others to think that he has a trading addiction. I don't think so, but I don't know. I do know that publishing bad trades can be a learning experience that we all should learn from.

I also know this; the killer in trading is your emotions. Trading against your emotions can be profitable because it allows you to; sell greed, buy fear, buy weakness and sell strength, cutting losses short. The greatest trading strategy will go for naught if a trader can't control emotions. The greatest trading experiment ever was the Turtles - they all had the same rules, yet some couldn't stick to them and they failed. Others stuck to them like glue and made millions.

Hope all Caraistas are doing well in this market. I am going to the doc tomorrow to, hopefully, get over my flu like symptoms that have been with me too long...bad timing, oh well. Wish me luck.

CBG missed their number. Might be a down day for CRE tomorrow.

Hope so. My GGP short needs a little juice.

Another great trading experiment was when one of the Turtles, or was it the Turtle mentors (?) tried a completely random entry system.

With proper money management (how many times in the Market Wizard books do we read "don't trade too big" and "cut losses, run winners?") this system made money.

Read that again - a completely random entry system made money with proper risk and money management.

If that doesn't say a lot about what is important, I don't know what does. And the thing most traders worry about is the entry. This shows it's not the most critical part of the trade at all.

bg- no, i sold SNDK a few days ago...

but i'm starting to think, even if the 10/2 scenario unfolds, some companies will be moving counter-trend, and well into the recovery stage->SNDK may be one of them...what's the downside here? when the Naz drops to 2000, SNDK may prove to have already have seen its low for the year, and you won't be picking it up for much less than 24...when it peaks again at 55, won't matter much whether you bought at 24 or 27, right?

the real question is which sectors/stocks within those sectors will recover first?

the other scenario to consider is that if/when we bottom, it may take the form of a "V," in which case you would need a) lots of cash, or (even better) short positions that can be converted easily into cash, b) nerves of steel (how many of us can honestly say we bought into the august 16th '07 sell-off with no qualms whatsoever), c) to be able to trade at the exact day/time it happens (what if you're on vacation, and you can bet a few brokers will once again be inaccessible)...

Bought some DIS at 30.12 today. Notice they did fairly well after hours. Anyone want to take a stab at what might happen to it tomorrow?

C'mon Isiah, anyone that regularly reads this blog knows that you basically just trade on Craig and 2nd's coattails. While you three may be the only regular posters of your day trades, those two are the only ones that consistently explain why they are making the trades they make.

I do recall someone here about a month or so ago - just after you hit the hard eight to make up for betting the wrong way on FXP (or was it QID?) - asking you to post something to do with your trading strategy. I have probably read about 80% of the discourse in the last 2 months, maybe I missed your response.

Based on your intial posts several months ago, I had to assume that you were a teenager. There's nothing wrong with joking around on a blog discourse, but this blog has many contributors that post insight and not just right/wrong day trades with no basis (at least no explicit basis).

Either way, you've got to chill out.

isaiah's made it pretty clear where he stands, and we should take what he says at face value...no one here knows anything about his situation (or anyone else's) apart from what he/(we) decides/(decide) to reveal here, so i suggest we leave conjecture at the blogging door...

a 3% sell-off may of course be a precursor to a 20% sell-off...but if not, it's likely to be an over-reaction to the ISM news, so betting (small) against the reaction...if it leads to a 20% sell-off, then i guess we'll be buying...(still think we need to at least test the lows)...

Don't hold it against me Isaiah....just think about it. What would be their motivation to do you harm?

"suggest we leave conjecture at the blogging door"..
Posted by: 2nd_ave

Amen. As they say in my prior business---Next case!

N225 off by 4%? if EWJ/JOF open around 12/8.25, will be buying...

I might be a hair early on this but list blow-ups so far have coincided with substntial sell-offs. It's the blog sentiment indicator.

Everyone take a deep breath, count to ten and be nice.

I hope you feel better soon go34.

2nd, you may be right. Some of the deals of last week may not be deals again unless there is a real panic/capitulation.

2nd,

You are correct, but based solely on his public record here you can see that he's not making well-thought out decisions. I don't post very often (this makes 3), but I've read most of the discourse here since last summer.

I may be thinking of Craig here, but either you or he called him out not too long ago for seeming to have too large of a position in one of the ultrashorts. I don't recall him responding to those inquiries.

I don't care to speculate further on Isiah's situation, I just wish that he'd post something worth reading.

craig- the ultimate play is the "V..."

would wager no one's looking for it right now (who saw the ISM numbers coming?)...HSI is off 5.4% (1300 points) at the open...N225 down 4%, Shanghai closed...i've heard of black monday, tuesday, friday->wednesday?...

not saying it will happen, but what better time than to hit us right before they start celebrating the new year...buying anything in the (DJIA) 10,000 range->nice to have that target in mind...

ISM and big Selloff today,

Is it just me or does anybody else think today felt just a little fishy.

For starters I'm having trouble believing the ISM number, normally fairly stable, now huge change, released early ?? and hearing something about they changed how they calculate it, anybody else heard that.

Stocks drop out of the gate, but as I checked a couple of times thru the day I noticed broad sell off but volume was mostly lower than average. Checking at the end of the day most index's and stocks managed to only get up to about the 60 day volume average, not a huge volume day as I would have expected.

Bill congrats on the great FP interview, every little bit has got to help.

Little levity . . . Chicago on this election day.

An election judge arrested for assault on another election judge. Victim taken to hospital, another judge breaking up brawl injured hand.

http://tinyurl.com/2tcad9

Still handing out receipts. I've voted on the East and West coasts and places in between over the years. Chicago is the only place where I am aware you receive a small paper voting receipt. Why? I think it goes back to the "old days" when, after voting, you would bring your receipt to a nearby hall or bar for free drinks if you proved you had voted and presumably for the right candidate(s).

Always entertaining. . . reminds one of that slogan from the past . . vote early, vote often.

Isaiah64v4 - The person who inquired about you wrote about a previous addiction issue, so there is every reason to believe that he was well-meaning whether or not his inquiry was misplaced.

There are regrets on all sides.

Onwards and upwards.

Glad Quasi pointed out the lack of large volume today. Most prior 2-300 point drops characterized by large volume.

Is somebody trying to create impression of fear? Does low volume mean traders simply not show up for work today? Does it mean that people who are going to sell already sold? Does it mean not that many buyers, many people on sidelines?

I know it seems natural based on past technical support/resistance levels that the indexes drop from here, and likely more bad news to come, but last two days dropping on low volume make more difficult to this novice trader to guess market direction. After hours trading on most of financials is up...should be interesting first hour or two tomorrow.

Luckily, we trade prices, manage risk, etc.

this has to be one of the greatest trading environments we will see (in our lifetimes)->maybe we should stand back and note that...will certainly be the subject of case studies and many books (which i look forward to reading)...

the housing/mortgage crisis is playing out in our neighborhoods, with reverberations around the globe...china is flexing some serious muscle for the first time since maybe the Qing Dynasty...money is pouring into sub-saharan africa as the advent of off-shore drilling hints at new sources of oil...SWFs (only on this blog do we know we're not talking about personal ads) are buying up blocs of US financial institutions...gold is sprinting towards 4 digits...and we have no incumbents running for president this year...

when you look back in two years, hope you won't be asking yourself how you slept through it....

2nd
That would truly be a "random" event fooling most, if not all, if it happened. Don't think so simply because of the lighter volume as noted by Quasi. Volume did seem puzzling . . . did the institutional crowd step out to vote and hit the bars? . . . or is it the proverbial calm before the storm?

Closing prices on Asian indexes and European opens may warrant closer attention tomorrow.

Smells fishy?

"On January 18, 2008, ISM announced a revision in the formula for calculating the PMI (composite index for the manufacturing sector). The new formula for the PMI includes the same five indexes as the past formula (New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories) but at equal weights, instead of the previous weighted formula. The new formula more closely predicts the gross domestic product (GDP) for the past several years. As a result, the PMI index numbers have been revised back through 2001. The PMI numbers prior to 2001 will not be revised. "

"14:39 ET The ISM has announced two changes that will commence with the January releases of the ISM and ISM non-manufacturing surveys. First, the formula for calculating the composite ISM headline index has been changed to more closely line-up with swings in GDP. The new formula includes the same five components, but at equal weights. Second, a composite headline index will now be released for the non-manufacturing survey (up until now, the headline figure was the correlate of the manufacturing production component). The non-manufacturing composite will be made up of equal weights of the following four components: 1) business activity (production), 2) new orders, 3) employment, and 4) supplier deliveries. Note that annual seasonal factor revisions for both reports will be released about a week before the ISM release."

I wonder if the formula was changed to reflect lower #'s - who benefits from this if so?

Or maybe there is no conspiracy theory here... just like 4 boat anchors cut 4 internet cables around the world in the last week...

"First, the report was released about an hour early "due to a possible breach of information." Second, the plunge in the index headline composite index number, from 53.9 to 44.6 stunned even the most grim-faced bears. Third, a recently announced change in the composition of the index mistakenly led a few "We're Out of the Woods" optimists to conclude that perhaps the numbers aren't' as bad as they seem. Well, everyone can run back into the woods, because they are as bad as they seem."

http://tinyurl.com/3cstle

Something tells me I should have held HGD for another week. Glad I ditched KRY though... aye carumba!

One suggestion for the site would be to categorize individual stock comments vs running commentary. Perhaps a weekly posting just for listing trades (in @ / out @ ) and one-liners. I like following the coattails of 2nd & Craig. :)

Not that I would touch this market with a 10-foot pole...

Timothy Silvers has posted a good discussion of factors indicating that gold and silver are pulling back toward excellent reentry points: http://tinyurl.com/3ex9b6

Just did a few scans in Stockcharts to get a better handle on what I was seeing and feeling re volume. I used both the 60 day average and also the 20 day average to avoid the lower volume Christmas period.

S&P 500 today
# stocks above 20SMA volume, 106 / 500
# stocks above 60SMA volume, 258 / 500
# stocks above 1.5*60SMA volume, 55 / 500
(11 of these 55 closed up)

DJIA 30 today
# stocks above 20SMA volume, 5 / 30
# stocks above 60SMA volume, 20 / 30
# stocks above 1.5*60SMA volume, 3 / 30
(all these 3 closed lower)

Pretty low percentage with any kind of volume.

I've just got this feeling we need a better bounce before we tank again, and I'm sure HB&B would still like to unload some stock higher and then go short.

thanks Wavesmash for the link, I'll do a little more reading on the ISM changes.

wavesmash- (and with all due respect to the venerable author of the dow theory letters)- mish's commentary kinda flies in the face of the " ain’t goin’ to be no stinkin’ recession" cover story theory...

(just setting the record straight after readi