It is hard keeping your funds in Cash (near cash). This has been my main holding since the end of September 2007. I still remember the rapid fall and rise of August/September 2007. Not repeating this has been the main strategy for the last few months. Well, for four months. It is almost unbearable not being in the market. The postings in this blog have kept me calm and collected. The panic feelings of August are something that I want to avoid. So far so good. With the remaining 10% of equities my accounts are up for January by under 1/2 of 1%. The NOT.v purchase at the end of December is now above my purchase price. In hindsight I 'should' have bought more in mid January, but I am following a rule to not average down in this market. Now the thinking is to average up in the next month in NOT.v. CUQ.to, mentioned in this blog, is a stock I have been watching. It was purchased last Thursday for my investment account. The RRSP may find another 10% in equities being bought in the next few weeks. Short-term strength appears to be arriving in February.

Yahoo/Microsoft:

I thought the Fed was the rescue agent for HB&B. Now it appears that MSFT is helping out the 'big boys'. What a hit to those who sold calls or bought puts.

The content on Yahoo is disappointing and I fall to understand the additive value to MSFT. My belief is that content, not advertising, is important. MSFT and Yahoo are up against those who have specialty web sites. You are not going to find the content of a BCara Blog on either MSN or Yahoo. When I 'listen' to those who use the internet, these two properties do not come up often. It is other focused web sites that I hear users mentioning in their daily conversations.

And speaking of MSFT I think of Bill's adventure with the Mac computer. Needing something to keep my mind off the market, I picked up an HP laptop with Microsoft Vista. This is my first laptop. I've sliced the hard drive and installed two partitions with Vista and not being a fan of new Window operating systems, another partition with XP. So far I give HP a nod for excellence in product so far and a bigger nod to the store that I bought it from. A large US firm starting with the letters 'Stap'.

Well, I am giving a moderate nod to MSFT. I like Vista to the point I am not booting up to the XP partition. Vista does a lot that I like (so far). There is a learning curve here as a number of changes have once again entered my life with an updated operating system. I have now delayed my plans to also install Linux on this laptop. This is my third HP product. Had a used Compaq desktop with Windows 2000, then a year ago bought an HP multi-media tower with Windows XP and now the laptop. Computers are no longer the hobby that I once enjoyed. Like everyone else, I want something that works and which needs an instruction manual of 4 pages. So with this equity market, lets also keep investing simple too.

Last Saturday I attended the Financial Forum in Toronto. The buzz of the stock market was not visible as I recal from the late 1990's. Went there with the perspective of what I am learning from the BC bloggers. Found it educational this year and ignored the hype and focused on prices. Came back with a list of ideas. Freewest was there, but I found the venture based exhibitors not attracting very much interest. The whole show on Saturday did not seem to attract much interest. Which makes me think that the markets may not be so bad afterall in Canada.

The BC crystal ball has me attending PDAC in Toronto. I wasn't planning to attend, but my registration will be going in shortly. I'll be able to make it on Sunday, but alas I am a wage slave for the other three days. If you can attend, you will have a great learning opportunity. I feel like 'such a rookie' for even thinking of going. But if I can go, you can too. And in my penny pinching ways the price is right - free.

A question for you: Does anyone here use CIBC Investors Edge where you pay a pro-rated annual fee and get a number of "free" transactions. I really don't want to change brokers but like to have options. I am using InterAcive Broker's WEB platform which meets my longer-term needs and commissions are solid in favour of the small guy. I spoke to a rep at the Interactive Broker booth at the Financial Forum and mentioned that the fees to buy stocks under $2.00 were a bit "expensive". Remember, in mid 2007 IB reduced the cost of buying from .005 to .002 and then changed it back to .005 of the purchae cost. Last September when I sold my WGI.to shares I had bought in both my cash and retirement accounts, IB charged me $60.00 and E*Trade charged me $9.99 for the same trade. The rep did give me an answer that was believable - that the cost of doing the trade covers the cost of exchange fees and that the other Bank brokerages lose money on the trade because they can make it up on the trades for stocks trading at higher prices. I wonder if this is true? If it is, then we need competition for the stock exchange or we should put our money to work by buying shares of the exchanges. I did make some money on the shares of the TSX - Toronto exchange [X.to] a while back in the retirement account.

Although I don't post too often, I do read the commentary each day and am still learning. From the snow bound Canada, have a great weekend everyone. [029]

Thanks Bill!

Something very important happened last week in my view, we had the strongest overall breadth in the markets by various measures I take since March 23, 2007. That week led us out of a nasty early March selloff and led to 2 months of solid price advance in the markets. Additionally I am seeing well over 100 sectors with extremely strong breadth for the week. Things are looking up, let’s see how long that lasts lol…

Good Trading,
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

Debt is what makes this recession extraordinarily
dangerous.
One of the indicators that I construct had been calling for recessions months ahead of most analyst.
Looking at Durable Goods Consumption relative to PCE and Non-Durables, these series continue to deteriorate.
It seems that a nasty recession is inevitable despite the Fed's efforts.
See "Durable Goods Consumption Deterioration"

Bill, one of the things I wonder about is if we bring in an Administration that wants to add more taxes to the mix, for example doing away with the Bush tax cuts, or even adding on more taxes, doesn't that inhibit growth? Or what if inflation is raging and they try wage and price controls? Could we get something worse than the '70's stagflation, since the U.S. is now a debtor nation rather than a creditor nation? I was a kid then, so I'm curious about the similarities and differences.

Hi, Bernard !

Your favorable comments on Vista are the first I've heard. Maybe the herd it too pessimistic.

I look forward to seeing you at PDAC.

Denny:
As long as this country wants crap like "the Bush tax cuts" it will continue to down spiralling downward into a growing sea of debt...ad infinitum...ad nauseam...ad bankruptcy.

This country...and its idiot people...must learn that when you want something, you MUST pay for it, whether it be retirement or healthcare or a new car or house or......etc., etc., etc.

Sooner or later...hopefully the former...it must learn that if it is to spend useless billions and trillions of dollars on WAR, then it must sacrifice the basic necessities of life.

It should also be apparent that you cannot trust corporations to police themselves...they will screw you, and the system every time (save for a very few who are actually responsible).

Untile those lessons are learned, the road leads directly DOWNHILL !!

david:

From your post on yesterdays discourse.

Check out the 'Analytics' item at the top of this page for ideas on how to educate yourself. Others have also mentioned Dr. Alexander Elder's books as worthwhile starting points to "trading".

short-term traders- Colin Twiggs->supplies resistance and support levels:

http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

seventies-> nixon/ford/carter...francis ford coppola/scorsese/lumet/friedkin...pacino/deniro/hackman...

joni mitchell/leonard cohen/tom rush/greg allman...hancock/barbieri/mangione/jarrett...

nasa/apple/

what's really wrong with a recession? great time to dispense with debt/speculation/corruption/partying, and invest in creativity/introspection/art/music/relationships...

i'm all for a recession...let's elect a few politicians who can clean house and/or put our house in order, eliminate the national debt/trade deficit, refocus the country on education, (realistic) wealth accumulation/distribution/standards of living, and long-term solutions...

how many top graduates in the seventies aspired to careers on wall street, where they would (waste their time and intellect) creating financial derviatives and amassing personal fortunes? there is an entire universe of challenges/problems/dreams upon which the US could and should be focusing its intellectual and creative captial->hate to say it, but inventing and selling packaaged and repackaged financial instruments while earning billions in fees, arbitrage, and trading add little of value...there are environmental/health-care/economic/technological challenges that could benefit the citizenry far more->maybe a prolonged recession will help to take investment banking off the top ten list...we could use a few more (talented) scientists/public policy administrators/researchers/health-care providers....

Request: If anyone has a recent RBC Capital Markets report on gold stocks would they please share it? Thanks!

"gregg allman"
"nasa/apple/emi"

Jock, with regard to Vista, maybe you've been listening too much to the herd? It's a solid O.S., just not the quantum leap that was Win2K to XP.

Did anybody notice the Transports have rallied 19% from the January 22 bottom? The Russell 2K is up 12%? And the SPX, NDX, DAX, FTSE, all up over 9%.

The volatility in these markets is simply amazing. And yes, I also see the same strengthening in the internals as Ralph. But this is in direct contrast to the weak fundamentals of the economy and of almost every company reporting this season. What to make of the market's embrace of such ugly employment numbers, or home builders that rocket up 30% in the face of multi-billion dollar writedowns, deteriorating balance sheets, the real prospect of bankruptcy for several major builders, and no reasonable prospect for an end to their misery anytime soon?

Can a drop in interest rates really be what pulls this market out of the fire? Well, the S&P bank index is up an incredible 28% since the first "emergency" Fed rate cut. So I guess the easy answer is "yes"! But I don't like easy answers.

I'm staying clear away from this market until thing make sense again. The discussion here helps me in that quest. Thanks to Bill and all for making this forum so very worthwhile.

doug, Thanks I will start there. David

One more observation for the technicians in the audience. I noted that the SPX retraced almost to it's 38% fib line during the '98 correction. Well, guess what, 1270 is the 38% fib on the bull leg that began back in 2002.

The other parallel is that '98 correction only lasted a month or two.

FWIW, the 2000-2002 correction ran a lot longer and deeper.

I just don't see how this is simply a repeat of the '98 correction. And I expect this rally will break through the recent lows and continue downward. In the meantime, you can get burned badly if you try to position yourself too soon or too aggressively.

And in response to 2nd's point about getting back to productive activity, wouldn't be swell if we could invest our money in companies working in those areas you like and not have to worry about losing 50% of that investment in a week?

We live in awful times when men must spend all their waking time watching their money, to the great detriment of what makes life truly worth living.

Just heard this on another site and HAD to share this link, It's a theme song for today:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37pal-PYTUQ

Just got back from a 10 mile run/walk. Thanks Bill, it is always nice to have your comments on the weekend. I love how you were talking about the Bahamas. I have a friend, Amanda Seymour, that works as VP of supply chain management for Atlantis in Paradise Island(she hooks me up). I go every December to get away from the cold of TN. I am heading to Chicago in a few days because it is not cold enough for me here.
I was short USO from oil prices $99 to 90. I am thinking that I might go long if it falls a few more to the mid-80's. I don't think OPEC has any more free resources to increase production. But if the market really tanks it might bring the oil/gold down with it. But with the spring driving next month, demand should increase. I always enjoy everyone's thoughts and links and where prices are headed. I have all puts/shares of ETF-shortfunds(COF,NVDA,INTC,FXP,QID) which I added to at the end of the day Friday. I am 75% cash looking to buy next week. Here's to the markets going down!

Fellow "FXP" holders...

"Global guru Nicholas Vardy says the Chinese stock market resembles Japan in the 1980s and the Nasdaq in the 1990s, and it may have topped out already"

He recommends shorting the Chinese market using FXP.

http://tinyurl.com/3cm3t6

Don Coxe's January 2008 Basic Points has been posted at

www.mylot.com

its kind of confusing to find, if you perform a search of the site for "basic points January" you should find it.

its very informative and confirms much of what people have posted on this site regarding gold/commodities.

Junior miners: How do you guys manage to research these things? I love gold but have been sticking with GLD and GDX, and a few big names, but the juniors scare me. My experience w/ small stocks on Canadian exchanges has not been positive. Lots of pump and dump scammers out there. Plus I notice when I go to Kitco to check the market, there are all these banner ads from juniors. Given how careful US equities are w.r.t. forward looking statements and such, there is no way I want to touch any little junior advertising its forward earnings on a banner ad. I keep remembering the definition of a gold mine as a hole in the ground with a liar standing on top. Somebody please enlighten me.

WOW!

Let me just say that the commentary lately is unbelievable. I'm not able to read throughout the day as I have in the past and now it is overwhelming when I open the site to 240+ comments at the end of the day (which no doubt will grow). I have been bookmarking every single day, but there is just no way I can spend the time I'd like to reading through it all a couple times.

Anyways, all commentary is much appreciated, this blog is amazing. Hope to meet some of you at PDAC.

dr.cosa - please post the complete url, I am not able to find the Don Coxe post at www.mylot.com - Thanks

Beware ETNs. I just read that, in addition to ETFs there now exist a new breed of "investment" called Exchange Traded Notes. They seem to differ in an important way. Whereas ETFs are backed by their respective equities or commodities, this new breed is only backed by the underwriters creditworthiness. Barclays for example is selling some of these "things". Does anyone but me smell a rat in a business suit here, a bankrupt bank peddling its newest slime?

Don Coxe:

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp

Bill,

Would you consider posting / publishing information focusing on an asset allocation portfolio ? Something a little broader than individual securities ? I know your forte / expertise is stocks, trading, etc. But I’d love to get your input on an on-going asset allocation model say for an investor with moderate risk tolerance, 10+ years to invest and so on. I'm thinking it would be your best input on when and whether to overweight stocks, u.s. & intl, styles and cap sizes or underweight, etc., etc. I read you daily and i think a lot of this can be picked out from your posts and weekend wrap-ups.... Anyway, I'd love to see a Cara Model Portfolio with an ongoing adjustment to the allocation as you saw fit. Please consider it as an idea. Thanks much either way. rk

JRPauley,
As Bill has said many times (and I whole heartedly agree) start with the jockey. You're right that there are a lot of liars out there. I start by looking at juniors who's management and/or board members are respected in the mining industry. For me the first acid test is where have they worked and what have they done before.

I am thinking of attending the PDAC in March. I see it runs from March 2nd to 5th. Any comments on whether to plan to attend each day or is a day or two enough? If a few days are enough any comments on which days? Thanks in advance.

I am looking for natural gas to move up, perhaps to new highs as seasonals are favorable for it during February. I own UNG. Gold, on the other hand, seems to be heading South (negative divergences GLD vs HUI and XAU) and I am looking to short GDX on any rally next Monday or Tuesday. Gold could reach $750 before bottoming and heading back up.
Now is an excellent time to be debt free if you can possibly do so and keep your money close to the vest. Avoid using margin whenever possible. More financials to blow up. Energy may be close to an IT bottom. XLE gave me a buy signal end of day Friday on daily chart.

IMO, Don Coxe's 2/1 Webcast is really informative and perceptive.

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/code/eventframe.asp

Regarding Pinetree Capital: I found this information at Canadian Investor - Jan 23/08 Inwentash, Sheldon Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Disposition in the public market -850,000 shares at $2.960. Probably not that big of a deal because I believe that Mr. Inwentash owns about 11 million shares.

johngeorge, may I ask why do you think natural gas prices will go up? Contracts for March 07 were under $8. Believe the current price of UNG based on March contracts.

I believe prices may still go up next week if storage drops belows 2Tcf, but with the recent mild weather plus the drop in oil prices I am not sure. I have heavy positions in UNG and HNU. Thanks.

ALOHA !!

Bill ... I guess "doom and gloom" is in the eye of the beholder. I agree that probably most who read my posts see it as "doom and gloom" for the reasons you state. Really all I am talking about is "change". People, especially the younger generations, have been conditioned to believe life is static. If you have it good it will always be good, is how such people perceive life and believe me the US government and FED want more than anything to keep that game going. You have to ask yourself ... "Why do they want this game to continue?" Yes, the young ones were not alive to see a US Dollar worth less than an Australian Dollar back in the early 1970s. They were not alive or of age for Vietnam and the turmoil of the 1960s. They are alive now to see gold over $900USD, which is higher in nominal terms than the highs of the 1980s. All this boils down to is that those in power who use "paper" to maintain their power are being threatened by CHANGE ... A CHANGE to real value and not a value based on corruption and fraud ... a power based on a "fiat monetary system". Its that simple to me ... And just what lengths will those in power go to in order to stay in power? We are now seeing what they will do. We saw what they did in 1933 when the US government confiscated gold. Once again those in power and those who were irresponsible sought to maintain their power by stealing from those who were responsible and clear thinking. I believe politcians and their banking bosses who lead the current "democracy"(mob rule)will not hesitate to take the same action and then some to stay in power. The signs are there ...

Another important point is that Americans are too isolated. You have to travel to see the World and how others live and how other governments operate. Here in Australia the news in the Sydney Herald estimates at least 300,000 homeowners face foreclosure in 2008. Right now there is a long news interview on TV with Mr. Swan, the equivalent of Hank Paulson in the US Fed, regarding inflation and government spending and the pain of rising interest rates. The Australian Fed wants to raise rates to get inflation under control below 3%. The Australian government has a surplus of some $30bil AUD due to mining revenues tied to China and India growth. Australia supplies what China needs. During WW2 the Japanese attempted to occupy Australia for the same reasons ... its resources.

The biggest beneficiary of this wealth is Western Australia and Perth. If you are in mining or looking to get into mining I can think of no better place on Earth to do so. Jobs are very plentiful and they are high paying even by US standards. I interviewed execs of Straits Resources last week. I drove to their offices on Ventnor Street in West Perth. As I walked around the area I walked passed building directories with every large resource company you can name. WHen I got tot their buiding I walked up to the elevator and there were three floors. On the first floor was Straits. On the second floor was Barrick Australia and on the third floor was Teck Cominco Australia. I will write more in-depth on this later, but you can see mining is a BIG deal ... Country risk has a lot to do with foreign corporations investment in Australia.

Yet real estate in Perth is some of the highest in the World so earning high pay will be required to live there. It is interesting that there is no property tax so long as you live in your listed principal residence. I mentioned that we in the USA get a tax write-off for home mortgages. No such write-off exists in Australia. Must be a good feeling to know your home cannot be confiscated by the local government for failure to pay property taxes.

Yesterday my wife and I walked around Walsh Bay near the hotel we are staying at, the Seibel Pier One. If you want a three bedroom condo with a view of the Sydney Harbour it will cost you between $2mil to $4mil AUD. Commercial space sells for $550AUD per sq meter and rent ranges between $1000AUD per week to $4000AUD per week. There is no doubt this is an opulent area to live in and in some instances it would be cheaper to stay here at our hotel for $370AUD per night.

All that said Australia still exists within the framework of a fiat monetary regime. Money is printed out of thin air. Money has no backing other than "confidence" in the Australian government and the assets of Australia. Government here spends as freely as the US government, but there are lesser amounts spent because the Australian government does not have Iraq or 300mil citizens or trillions of debt. Per capita the spending is there and there is socialized medicine costs. Now it is a game of which fiat regime will survive the longest. Which fiat will have the greatest value. Those are the values of those who invest in fiat and government intervention. Unfortunately those are the realities, even her in Australia, where the POG is $1000AUD. Fiat is fiat ...

I leave later tonight on Qantas headed for Honolulu ... We will be at the Outrigger Reef right on Waikiki Beach. In 1970 my family first stayed there when an oceanview room was $18USD. Now we are paying $420USD ... Is that due to hedge funds and speculators too? Believe me "high prices" are everywhere! Its not just the USA or Australia. So what's the common denominator? Hummmmmm-m-m-m???? Yeah ...

I had a great trip and established a better network than I had. I also have a better vision of the World and its people. That's something you cannot get by staying home ... I will come back to Australia for sure.

SiO2
My reasons for natural gas prices going higher are two.
1) Seasonals show February is an up month going into April. Seasonal charts available @ http://www.seasonalcharts.com

2) Natural gas is nearly 1/2 the price of oil per million BTU's. IMO that gap will get help closing by gas going up in price http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp
Best to you.

johngeorge, thanks.

For prices I use http://tinyurl.com/yrh4o2
I am not sure seasonalcharts.com refers to contracts futures prices (for example current price is March price). It does not match well with the historical chart at the link above.

As for the price of oil, there is a small correlation between the two, and oil is heading down. However, natural gas and oil are not exchangeable energy sources. I would not put much weight on equivalent BTUs usefulness.

I think price is influenced mostly by the storage, and we still have a major glut in NA.

I am still long but will go short soon.

Bill/All,

Really good news folks. At last there is some light at the end of the tunnel!

"The banks, which include Citigroup and UBS, are considering injecting capital into Ambac and assuming some of the risks associated with guarantees written by the company, these people said."

It's good to know that Citi & UBS are coming from a position of strength to help out crippled bond insurers.

http://tinyurl.com/3dq67k

Bill, Did Elaine Garzarelli have anything to back in the fall about the likelihood of a collapse in the markets? As you did?

Bill,
I don't expect Keevil to leave Teck, Goodman to leave Dundee, Inwentash to leave Pinetree .... These are entrepreneurs and their business is their life blood. There is more to life than money!

Bill and everyone, hello. Kevin Depew wrote the best blog that I have ever read - he speaks to the separation of reality in today's markets as a manifestation of the process in the culture at large. I yell about pigs trading at 300 multiples, but Kevin puts it into the grand context. 2nd, I think you will also enjoy it very much, as well as Kaimu.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/15724

calvino- thanks for the link...i think baudrillard is(was) on to something...

how often have you found yourself at work saying nothing, but getting a surprisingly good reception anyway because of (or in spite of) the way you said it, or because people pretended to read something (profound) into it?

we all know in the back of our minds that image sells, counterfeits work, good looks/connections/money/chutzpah trump substance/character/hard work/patience any day...and chafe at politicians/coworkers/celebrities who succeed on the basis of the former...we all hate it, but we put up with it...

are people really 'revolting?' against debt, consumption, and super-models? (interesting word, actually, as it can signify both rebellion against, and disgust for...)

well, i'm happy to hear of any shift in the 'social mood' that might take us back to...the seventies? ;) seriously, if we can get back to the days when we only bought what we could afford, when 'keeping up with the joneses' was more a joke than a compelling necessity, when we at least tried to impeach/expose liars and thieves, when you could understand a balance sheet/annual report, when the news was meant to inform rather than entertain, and when adults acted like mature role models...that's good enough for me!

addendum to the above- what have we been teaching our kids anyway? borrowing to sustain an unsustainable (and ultimately unsatisfying) lifestyle, rewarding those who succeed on well-crafted (rather than well-earned) credentials, and leaving Gen Y/Z the task of cleaning up our excesses while earning half the income their parents did...boomers and Gen X->we really outdid ourselves...

Dear Mr.Bill Care
I am a new comer from China, what all you write these days I read atract me a lot! I admire your talent and in-depth watch.
Besides, I am planning a attendence to PDAC for our company,if possible,it's a great honor for me to meet you at the convention spot!

Yours Faithfully
Jason
Xi'an,
China

sorry for my poor English and wrong spelling!
I am a little excited to post here first time.

Jason - I'm not sure Bill reads every post every day on this list. You might drop Jock and email, I think he works very closely with Bill, and perhaps he can fwd your request. Just a thought. Jocks email:

jock@billcara.com

jongeorge, SiO2,

I tend to agree with jongeorge. Since I am in the industry (reservoir engineer) and understand the uses of each (one for autos, the other for heating and power) think that the differential will begin to normalize, based on the long life prodcing oil assets and the relatively short life gas assets. Most gas wells in the US anyways are in steep decline since they are first put on production. Since the shipping of LNG isn't a well developed market yet, it is entirely dependent upon relatively local production. I believe we could see another 2001-2002 where gas went up and oil was pretty flat.

Anyway just my 2 cents.

Dear Mr. Jacksoo：
Thank you so much for your advice and warm-hearted help, which moved me deeply even though we distance so far!
Thanks again!
Please tell me what can I do for you about anything in China.
My MSN: jx950@hotmail.com

Hi

we here in Germany are starting to see what we call "Zweitrundeneffekt" (second round effect?). The unions are asking for wage increases between 8% and up to 30%! Justification is a healthy economy and the high prices for food and energy.

Kevin Depew article quite interesting. Makes me think about gold vs fiat currency, and which of the 2 is really "real"

What "real"ly matters most this weekend for the markets, of course, is the super bowl outcome. I know my March DIA puts are betting on the Patriots. I only hope the PPT is not sitting on the sidelines interfering

Scratchy, thanks for your perspective, much appreciated. I agree with you medium/long term price prediction. From what I read production will be declining as the price is not advantageous for the gas producing companies right now, once production declines the situation reverses. My post referred to short term (1 to 2 months out).

Can someone please answer a question for me about the Proshare Ultra ETFs (QLD, SSO, DDS, etc.)? These are designed to double (up or down) the move of common indices. I've looked at charts of SPY vs. SSO, QQQQ vs. QLD, etc. for 3-6 month periods and they don't even come close to performing as designed. For instance, for the last six months, the SPY is down about 5%, while SSO (which, if I understand the product correctly, should be down 10%)is down about 17%. It seems this is the case since prices don't go straight up or straight down (particularly with recent volatility). So, for example if on day one, the SPY drops from $10 to $8, it's lost 20%. At that point, SSO would be down 40% (to $6). So far so good. But on day two, if SPY goes up 25%, it's back to $10, or flat on the two day trip, while SSO goes up 50% (from $6 to $9)and therefore underperforms it's stated benchmark by 10% ($10 vs. $9). These products would seem to work only for day-trading or where markets go literally straight up or straight down over a period of time (obviously an absurdity). Am I missing something in how these products work? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Bill, following up on my own question about E. Garzarelli's track record, here it is:

http://www.garzarelli.com/edit/track_record.php

It looks like she was bullish throughout 2007.

Earnings:
Difference of about 157 billion dollars between earnings in Q2 and earnings in Q4.

http://tinyurl.com/2a86uj

Buying and selling pressure on these products at the highs/lows cuts off the tops and bottoms which affects how they perform against the indices. These are mainly used as hedging vehicles and as such they are bought heavily at index highs and sold at the lows which cuts off tops and bottoms compared to the indices they supposedly track.

In the middle they track fairly close.

Ruh roh, repeating myself in posts...too much coffee.

I'm liking posts from Kaimu, Ronbon and 2nd. A reversal of course is required.

You have to interpret.
"I'm for making the Bush tax cuts permanent" is political talk for "I will continue to run record deficits and issue more debt to your children and grandchildren to assure the wealthy get theirs while devaluing your dollar". They will pay lip service to medicare and SS but it is clear, you can lie a country into an illegal war but you can't do anything about the entitlements.

Best to turn Iraq back to it's rightful owners and use those funds to rebuild America.

2nd, first sign of the 70's returning....

The Dead is reuniting (sans Jerry of course)to tour...Deadheads for Obama.

Tradersquest,
I was in the army in Germany in 1970. Stationed in Munich during the Olymics. The army moved out all personnel except a necessary 500 for security purposes. Spent several months in Permisans/Muchweiler area. Sorry for the spelling. Do all young men still have to serve in the army there in one form or another? At least they got to wear their hair long back in my days there.

Yahoo finance,
I have not been able to load the page the last two days. The front page seems to not change either for a few days. Are others experiencing the same thing?

Came across this on another site. Interesting. Think the guy lives in Michigan. We certainly live in interesting times.

"I told you guys I've been out looking at real-estate here . I got an email this morning from a local broker with an up-date on his repo list . On today's list was a 2600 sq ft colonial (25 years old) just a few blocks away from my condo . The asking price was $230,000 , get this , the property taxes were $7,600 a year . In case you don't have a calculator handy , that's $633.33 a month just for property taxes . (FYI this home would have had an asking price of $340,000 at the peak a few years ago .)

New hires here in the auto plants will be getting $14 an hour , that is if he or she is lucky enough to get in . That means that an auto worker , would have to pay 38% of his before tax income just for property taxes to live in this home . Today a $230,000 home is right there at the median price home in this country . As you well know a manufacturing job is higher paying than most other kinds of jobs . Bottom line here is this simple fact , top paying jobs , can no longer afford even the median priced home in the good old U.S. of A. .

IMO the banks are going to be brought down , trying to pay the carrying cost on all these homes they are getting back . When I look at properties here , the property taxes are the single biggest deterrent for me as an investor . We are now at the point dear reader where the vast majority of our citizens , can no longer afford to live in the country they work in . The Republicans are out and the Democrats are in ?

When we look at taxes today we have to look at total taxes , not just income taxes . People like Vangel want us to believe that the rich pay all the taxes in this country . But the fact is the poor pay far more as a percentage of their incomes . Workers and especially the working poor , which is most of our work force now , pay more as a percentage of their incomes in taxes than ever before . Even the absolute cheapest properties here , are now out of reach for most workers . I might add here that our housing is amongst the cheapest in the country .

It makes sense to me at least , that the median wage worker should be able to afford the median home . The Federal government has cut taxes for upper income individuals , while at the same time has turbo charged their spending . Over the last couple of decades , the Federal Government has put more and more mandates on states , while at the same time cutting federal funding for them .
This means states have to raise taxes on every thing , this is why hidden in every thing from your electric and phone bills , are more and more taxes . These taxes fall on every one , but are most damaging to those who earn the least .

Along with the mortgage resets , property taxes have now caught up with peak home values here , but at the same time these real home values have been falling like a rock . The states home valuations are now in many case , twice what the property can be sold for , but on average at least over taxed by a third . It is interesting to note here that our states coffers are empty , even at these extraordinarily high rates of taxation .

While the billionaire class does better and better , the poor are getting poorer and poorer . Lowering taxes at the federal level on the richest , while raising them at the state level on the poorest , is a shell game or a slight of hand trick at best . Recently I read an article about a retired widow who's total income was $6,000 in the form of S.S. . Her property taxes on the home she raised her family in was a whopping $12,000 a year . So before any thing else , her property taxes were 200% of her income . Some might suggest that this woman sell her home and move into something more affordable . But at her income she really only qualifies for her local tent city .

Today every thing is coming together and forming a perfect storm , the mortgage resets , the extraordinarily high property taxes , and the ever falling returns to labor due to trade agreements , the high cost of retiring the boomers , and ever increasing health-care cost etc etc . The world's banking system is now insolvent and near collapse . Actually it would have all ready collapsed had it not been for a global central bank intervention .

The Reagan / Volker solution to the early 80's recession and ramped inflation , was to lower overall returns to labor . Without real cost of living allowances , labor has for nearly 3 decades absorbed the fed's inflationary ways . While the well protected will get theirs , the not so well protected will and are paying dearly .

The working poor , formerly know as the middle class , have reached their breaking point . They are now walking away from their homes by the millions . One thing we can be sure of at this point , is that many millions more will follow . But it's not just their homes they are walking away from , it's their cars and their credit cards too .

This dear reader is not a credit problem , it is end the result of the biggest transfer of wealth that this country has ever seen . I was there through the entire post WW2 era , I entered the work force as an adult in the early 1960's and witnessed the entire transformation .

While the children of the boomers like to put the blame for our S.S. problem on the boomers , it's actually the boomers parents and the richest of us who are to blame . The boomers have paid trillions into S.S. thinking it was for them , but in reality they were paying for lucrative retirements for their parents and tax cuts for the wealthy . The so called S.S. fund is over a trillion dollars negative today , which proves that all the money went to the boomer's parents and those tax cuts for the wealthy . The so called "Greatest Generation" was great ,,,,,,,, great at embezzling from their children . Today's Greatest Generation paid about $2 a week into S.S. and mostly nothing into Medicare , but yet take thousands per month .

We the boomers and our children and grand children have been had , by our parents , and by the wealthy . Like I wrote above , it's the perfect storm."

SCratchy
My thanks also for your learned commentary (you certainly have the credentials). Both SiO2 and myself were referencing shorter term direction and that is what makes a market. 8^)
Regards the longer term it makes me pleased to know a credentialed engineer sees things in a similar fashion to myself. Personally I cant help but think in the not too distant future natural gas will not be taken for granted as it seems to be at this time.
Best to you

Minyanville reported that banks are pulling in HELOC's over the weekend and tightening lending standards as the Fed eases....

http://tinyurl.com/2nsb47

Liquidity is vanishing....

off-topic:

"Do all young men still have to serve in the army there in one form or another?"

Theoretically yes. But the army has positions (i.e. money) only for about 35% of each one-year age group. Lawsuits pending against conscription. Long hair not allowed anymore.

reenzo, and home mortgage rates actually increased last week. Ironic, is it not?

Maggy:
Hold on there, Pilgrim! I'm not sure where the quote stops and Maggy re-enters, and maybe the entire thing is by the guy from Michigan.

My point (as a member of the "Greatest Generation") is that what we receive today, we paid for throughout our working lifetimes. If you take our Social Security contributions and add the matching amounts paid by our employers, then add compound interest at then-prevailing levels, and then annuitize that amount, our benefits are consistent with expectations.

The problem is what Congress did in the interim. They consistently lacked the courage (you might also call it "honesty") to be fiscally responsible stewards and invest the Soc.Sec. trust fund in a conservative manner.
Instead, they raped and pillaged it, and wrote IOU's against its assets.

For the past 27 years, Americans have placed their "faith" in charlatans like Reagan, Bush I and Bush II...and, yes, Clinton, too. The true fact is that the privileged class (as well as their lackeys) do not really believe in, or even like, democracy. They view the vast majority of the people as being akin to their servants.

When Reagan took office the National Debt stood as just UNDER one trillion dollars...and it had taken over 200 years to reach that level. Anyone with an elementary knowledge of arithmetic should have been able to smell a large rat when Reagan promised to, a)lower taxes, b)vastly expand military expenditures, and, c)reduce the National Debt. It didn't add up at the time and it certainly doesn't now. Consequently, that Debt now stands at 9.2 trillion. Anyone who has voted for any Republican presidential candidate during that period HAS ONLY THEMSELVES TO BLAME!!!!

If it wasn't for the members of the "Greatest Generation" this country would have fallen under the heel of a Nazi conqueror's boot....SOONER THAN NOVEMBER OF 2000!

maggy
No doubt there is much truth in what you write. I too entered the workforce in the 60's with four years in the military first. Much has changed. Growing up with next to nothing our family struggled mightily in the 50's and then my father was felled by polio. Mom and 5 kids with little of nothing. Thank goodness for the kindness of family, neighbors , and friends as they kept us fed and warm.
Evidently most folks never learned that you dont buy things unless you have the cash to pay for them and that the world owes you nothing. I live in a small town in Central Wisconsin and we recently had the misfortune of being informed that one of the local paper mills is shutting down. 500 people thrown out of work. Devastating for these parts what with the losses in jobs over the past ten years here amounting to over 1000. Talk about adding insult to injury. Those were nearly all manufacturing jobs that brought money into the community and was spent locally. Now we have many homes sitting empty and many more with for sale signs in the front yard. Things are so bad here people want to bring in a slaughter house to create jobs.
So yes, people hurting all across the USA thanks to big government run by and for the wealthy on an unprecedented scale. Our president was handpicked to be the puppet for the powers that be and they did their job oh so extremely well.
My final rant is Microsoft's perspective purchase of Yahoo. All those billions and billions of dollars used to gain more position and power and throw more people out of work. Cant help but think what just a couple million of that unfathomable amount of money would do to help the people who have lost their jobs and their homes. Yes, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. And as long as the gubmint keeps them fed they wont rise up in rebellion. I am afraid it is going to be a long time before things even begin to turn around.
Best to you

prieur- thanks for your latest:

http://tinyurl.com/2jz32v

comment on the richard russell quote:

'On this score, Richard Russell, octogenarian author of the Dow Theory Letters, refers to the cover of the latest Newsweek magazine, blaring out “Road to Recession” in large letters. He remarked: “Really, let’s turn to the magazine cover rule – when an item becomes so widely accepted that it makes the cover of a national magazine, the odds are that the item is either not going to happen or it’s over. There ain’t goin’ to be no stinkin’ recession. The magazine (contrary reading) says so, the stock market says so, Richard Russell says so.”'

are recessions 'subject to' the cover rule? i can understand, for example, how a cover story on AAPL may signal (temporarily, at least) a top in the stock price->who's left to buy? a recession, however, is probably going to occur whether or not someone points it out...how does a cover story lessen the odds?

Tradersquest,
Why does Germany put up with a US military presence there? I know that the German population does not like it, other than as an economy boost due to retail/home rental purchases. I don't believe that the 3rd block is a threat anymore, or is it?

have to agree with ronbon re social security...

wilbur cohen, who helped draft the social security act (and went on to head HEW under Kennedy and Johnson before ending his career at the University of Michigan) is a perfect example of the kind of intelligent and forward-thinking leadership we need in washington today...personally met cohen through my dad when he was at michigan, and can assure you he remained a very approachable, humble and idealistic public servant to the end->what a contrast to some of our 'leaders' today...

has anyone else also noticed the contrast between members of the Greatest Generation and the Boomers? i can only speak for myself, but i do not feel at all like the person my dad was at my age->perhaps heightened maturity comes with the kind of hardship/deprivation at a young age most of us never experienced...

...or should i say the kind our parents made sure we never had to experience?

Tradersquest and stktrader -

Chalmers Johnson, ex-cold-warrior, wrote Blowback (wherein he coined that word) and the Sorrows of Empire (wherein he asked why the US needs 750 military bases overseas).

All this occasioned by an invitation by the governor of Okinawa to speak there. He was amazed to find the island a virtual US officers' country club.

He concluded that US society has become so militarized that we don't even question why Japan or Germany need thousands of US troops.

With the US spending more on "defense" than the next 25 countries combined, no nation would be stupid enough to challenge the US in conventional warfare. (China & Russia might defent themselves "conventionally"against invasion. But, I HOPE the US has learned that invansions aren't easy or quick or cheap!)

The sorrow of empire !

Social security is a blessing to all who are lucky to live long enough to draw from it. Of course, there are a lot of problems with it. But, for an historical view....in the early 60's my husband then was a Special Education teacher and earned $5,200/yr. That's about $2.50/hr and I'm sure the Greatest Generation of the 1940s earned a lot less. In fact in the late 50s I earned just under a dollar an hour (before college etc) as a drugstore clerk. My point is to have paid only $2.00 a week into social security was geared to the wages back then. My present husband is on the leading edge of the Boomer generation (1946-1964) and all my kids are Boomers. The real problem is in population numbers. The Boomer are a huge number of people who are now entering the social security system this year. However, the next generation, Generation X and forward are not huge in numbers and therein lies the problem. Obviously, it will have to be fixed. But, to blame former generations for todays mess is quite fair.

Isiah,
If you are considering buying FXP:
on the weekend, China has approved two mutual funds to be invested in A shares and a small portion in bonds. This is the first such approval since last August. Banks are also requested to loosen lending requirements, and lend money as appropriate. A departure from previous policies.

Market expects the changes will be a boost to the current pessimistic mood.

Historically, the Chinese market always react to the direction that government wants it to go.

http://www.mpfinance.com/htm/Finance/20080203/News/ea_eaa1.htm

:-) Oops...last sentence should read "But, to blame former generations for todays mess is not quite fair.

riteside- thank you...that's exactly the kind of news/take we need to hear from china..even if it's not the news i want to hear right now ;)

2nd,Re: your thread since 10:33p.m. last night.

Let me 2nd that emotion.
Boomers, Gen x, y, z...we're all the same creatures, always undone by avaraice, pride, envy, anger, gluttony, lust and laziness. The best of cultures have always identified these tendencies as "vices" and promote their opposite behaviors: virtues like charity, justice, humility, mildness, moderation, chastity, diligence, patriotism.
Formerly (Greatest Generation) it was the case that virtuous behavior was promoted by cohesion of message among church, community, school, family and peers. Once media was thrown into the mix, however, the game changed considerably. The greatest purveyors of vice roost there, protected by the freedom (read "license")we confer. The imperative of virtue, now openly scorned by multitudes, driven from schools, is relegated to the churches and increasingly fragmented family influence. Their message is outweighted by the all-pervasive noise of the media.
We should expect no spontaneous reversion or ascension to altruistic behavior, as it is not within the nature of man to ascend unless motivated by an overarching ideal. The new morality is no such ideal. It is merely the codification of the lowest acceptable standards of behavior; it will be ever adjusted downward, along with the culture, to ruin.
Then we start again. This cycle is easily seen in the life of individuals we all know (ourselves) Societies are no different, just bigger and harder to fix.

2nd - the pavlovian dogs are used to betting against Joe Public and that helps them to think they are smarter. Actually, it is the Fed that is always gaming Joe Public: the dogs are obviously salivating now. At some point, the contrarian trade becomes mainstream, and far less clever than once thought. George Soros points out that the time is fast approaching, another cut here, another cut there, and the foreign money propping up our debt is leaving. At that point, the Fed's ability to game Joe Public is finished. There are two Fed auctions coming this week, which should give a clue to us. I find it completely incredible that foreign money earned with brutal hard work is coming here to prop up financial asset prices, rather than going to build the woefully inadequate infrastructure in 75% of the world. That will also stop, along with the Fed's ability to prop up its friends, who are now a hardened carapace of crap sitting on top of this country and crushing it.

Credit Bubble Bursting and Social Chaos Ahead

Jim Cramer in a recent interview: “There are a group of insurance companies that insure all these bad mortgages,” . “And I think they’re all about to go belly up. And that will cause the Dow Jones to decline 2,000 points. They have got to be shut down. This is going to happen in maybe two, three weeks. It’s going to be on the front of every paper. And no one in Washington is even willing to admit it. I am telling you these companies do not have the capital to make good. And, when they do fall – I believe it is when – if the government doesn’t have a plan in action, you will not be able to open the stock market when they collapse…No one is even talking about it.”

From panic, offers Gerald Celente, will arise almost overnight an era of social and political upheaval and plain awfulness. Self storage will finally “live up to the meaning of its name. Down and out, thrown onto the streets, homeless Americans will empty out storage lockers of useless junk…to store themselves.” He predicts wage riots and anti-government street protests and intensified anti-immigration movements looking to scapegoat the “aliens” among us. Toward the 1 percent of Americans who received 50 percent of all income gains in recent years – those same 1 percenters, roughly 3 million people, who took in 22 percent of all income in 2005 – there will be growing rage. “Kidnappings for ransom will become common, as they were in the Depression and as the poor strike out against the rich,” Celente predicts. Lawlessness will be met, as in most third rate nations, with violence from an increasingly sophisticated and brutal police state. A different type of violence from the ground up, tax revolts, will also develop in strength, targeting a tax-ravenous federal government that Celente charges has failed “to protect food, win wars, clean the environment, upgrade infrastructure, improve living standards, provide health services or advance education.”Note that this is no fringer veering into conspiracist phantasm: Celente consults for hundreds of large and small corporations, addresses government bodies worldwide.

Don Coxe mentioned that during a recent dinner, participants were discussing the social chaos that may evolve from the mortgage mess. Apparently 50% of bad mortgages are held by black Americans and 36% by Hispanics. Those members of the working underclass received mortgages based solely on the value of the real estate.... if using conventional mortgage, criteria, these folks would never have received a loan. Now they are just walking away from the home which is worth less that the original sale price. Coxe comments they are acting correctly, choosing to take care of themselves instead of bailing out the lender on a deal which they were never part of from the beginning.

In Saturday's edition of the Arizona Republic, a photo on the front page of the paper captures an agent of the Sheriff's office Tasering
a renter who became enraged at being evicted as his landlord was being foreclosed on. He was cuffed and taken to jail. The chaos begins.

so who's to blame (for the mortgage meltdown)? sunday chronicle runs down the list:

http://tinyurl.com/22c2j6

excerpts:

"..the perpetrators are not a cadre of easy-to-finger folks in the executive suite.

Instead, they're everywhere in the mortgage food chain. Borrowers who lied about their income, mortgage brokers who flogged risky loans, appraisers who inflated home values, lenders that originated dicey mortgages, Wall Street firms that packaged them as securities and sold them, ratings firms that said those were safe investments - many participants in the market pushed the envelope, or, in some cases, may have committed outright fraud.

The one clear culprit is greed, a culture of consumerism that led countless people to seek a quick buck in the go-go real estate market of the past decade."

"One Oakland woman, who asked not to be identified, explained how she exaggerated her income - with encouragement from her mortgage broker - when she refinanced her home.

"He didn't say anything illegal out loud," she said. "He didn't say 'lie,' he just made a strong suggestion. He said, 'If you made $60,000, we could get you into the lowest interest level of this loan; did you make that much?' I said, 'Um, yes, about that much.' He went clickety clack on his computer and said, 'Are you sure you don't remember any more income, like alimony or consultancies, because if you made $80,000, we could get you into a better loan with a lower interest rate and no prepayment penalty.' It was such a big differential that I felt like I had to lie, I'm lying already so what the heck. I said, 'Come to think of it, you're right, I did have another job that I forgot about.' "

"According to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance, 63.3 percent of all subprime mortgages in 2006 were originated by brokers.

"These were people who maybe didn't have a college degree, who were new to the industry. In a few months, if they could get five to seven loans a month, they were making a quarter million dollars a year," said Frank McKenna, co-founder and chief fraud strategist at BasePoint Analytics, a Carlsbad (San Diego County) firm that helps lenders detect fraud. "The commission structure created a lot of greed."

"Mortgage brokers and bankers don't come up with money unless the Wall Street investment banks say they'll buy it," Hanson said. "All the big Wall Street investment banks would put out guidelines on what they would buy. The mortgage brokers originated loans based on what those guys said they wanted. They never told anyone to lie. But they said, 'We don't need this documentation (of borrowers' income and assets); we won't do any due diligence to check it out.' "

"With all this paper we pushed to Asia and Europe, I hear they have hired thousands and thousands of manual auditors to get their hands on this collateral (lending documents) to go through it and find one thing that's wrong," Hanson said. "If you said you had $12,000 in your bank account and you actually had $11,000, the investment bank that securitized the deal has to take it back. The whole thing is going to the finger-pointing phase."

Re: Mortgages
"they have hired thousands and thousands of manual auditors to get their hands on this collateral (lending documents) to go through it and find one thing that's wrong."

One of my kids is part of a temp crew hired by Citi to do just the kind of nit-picking described above.

@stktrader

"Why does Germany put up with a US military presence there? I know that the German population does not like it,"

That was the case way back in the 80th in the context of the deployment of Pershing II. Today we have our own problems ;-) and noone really cares except some antiwar demonstrations in 2003.

Bill and Kaimu,
I'm proud to say that my wife and I have had the same vision as you when we first bought our house in 98. Everyone was trying to upsell us into the fancy neighborhoods over our limits, where we would have felt the pressure to keep up with the joneses.
Instead we bought what we wanted, an older country house with plenty of land. Immediately I drew up a plan to have the house paid off by 2010. We stayed in a 30 year fixed mortgage and made pre-payments of principle.
We are currently on-track with out plan and will have saved $186,000. on interest we didn't pay and have saved 18 years of time.
I wholehearedly agree with Kaimu that there is no greater feeling of freedom in today's world than being debt free. Especially in the face of the current turmoil people have gotten into by not paying off their debts.

We aren't there yet but I can see land and it's glorious. This year I'm dramatically expanding our farm to be a source of income. We already grow enough to eat for most of the year and have uncles who raise our meat. In the next couple of years we're buying an outdoor wood burner that is environmentally sound called a "Greenwood" to heat the house and to heat a greenhouse we're building as well.
Eventually we plan to be nearly 100% off the grid and will only have to afford our taxes every year to stay in our self-created paradise.

I encourage everyone to at least try and get debt free so you can follow your dreams as well, instead of funding the bankers' dreams.

Rob.

Hey 2nd, did you see the other article in the Chron about how Countrywide has rated certain counties for creditworthiness? For example, my county, Alameda, is rated 4 while San Francisco is rated 2.

I doubt CW is alone in this practice.

This means it will be much harder for folks to get an affordable mortgage in these lower-rated counties. BTW, virtually nothing is selling in my neighborhood. And what is selling is coming down noticeably in price.

It's going to get much worse before it gets any better, I'm afraid.

@stktrader

"Why does Germany put up with a US military presence there? I know that the German population does not like it,"

I can't remember where I saw it but apparently the U.S. is planning on moving their bases from Germany to one of the former Soviet republics and the Germans are upset due to the hit their economy will take. I believe Puerto Rico is experiencing the same thing. I'll try to find the link.

il- suspect when home prices bottom, we'll be in an inflationary environment, in which case higher rates will make monthly payments on lower-priced homes still difficult to afford for many...it's been a once-in-a-lifetime (speculative) mania for some areas, which may take a generation to work out...don't envy the homebuilders right now->as bill has pointed out, the financial/homebuilding industries will survive, but the landscape could be quite different...

btw-garzarelli's buy signal->anything can happen in this market, and she undoubtedly thought long and hard about her call...but as you point out, anyone who stayed fully invested in 2007 was put to the test last month (unless she issued a sell signal sometime in january...and it's not clear whether her buy signal january 31 was to return to being fully invested, to increase exposure, or whether it's a short- or long-term signal...)

Globalised China has two glaring needs
By Richard Spencer in Beijing
Last Updated: 12:57am GMT 02/02/2008

In not much more than two decades, globalisation has changed China from basket case to economic power, but has left its present-day leaders with two glaring needs.

One is to protect its industrial base, which has raised the expectations of so many millions of its people, from those same global winds of change as the credit crunch turns them into more of a gale.

The second is to employ its savings to project its influence and allow it to become more than a low-cost base for other nations' manufacturers.

Both needs met neatly when BHP announced its bid for Rio Tinto.

http://tinyurl.com/23msrp

ALOHA !!

Guys, we are where we are simply because of "fiat" ... a corrupt fiat monetary system. Return to thinking about the USA as a corporation and study the fallout of excessive dilution. Printing stock certificates is the same as printing US Dollars. In order to fund the AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE touted by every politician and even SUPERMAN the US government has to continuously make up "short falls" in ways that the average citizen cannot understand or see. Stealing funds from the Social Security Trust Fund is just one of many ways US citizens and taxpayers are defrauded. Both of the two party artistocracy are to blame because both parties spend endlessly and make no effort to expose the fraud and bring the truth into the light for all to see. These are PUBLIC atrocities and these people in power today are the furthest from US Constitutional principles as one can get. These people are not PUBLIC SERVANTS as they profess profusely ...

For the corporation USA with such extreme dilution they need to get funding more and more often to supply the same level of AMERICAN WAY lifestyle as last year. As the share price(USDX)drops there is ever larger dilution and more debt. The amount of debt needed to finance the building of the Golden Gate Bridge in the 1930s cannot be raised for the same debt today. The politicians and bankers know all too well that if the AMERICAN WAY starts slipping away then so will their power. All they have to do is look what happened to the USSR. What government was more ruthless than the Russian Communists, especially FDRs pal Stalin? Yet even with all that ruthlessness for many decades the powerful Communist party fell, first in Afghanistan then in Moscow. The Communists fell because they lost "confidence". With all their incepant propaganda the truth still triumphed. Like the truth will here in the USSA some day. Whenever the masses are very mad things change and usually those in power are the ones that feel the anger of the masses most. Why do you think each US administration keeps bulldozing the debt crap into the next generation? It really irks me to hear people argue about which party Dems or Reps, has the best track record ... which is the best? Nobody perpetuates this crap more than Rush Limbaugh and now he's one rich bastard for creating a radio show that caters to that game of BS. All that does is divide us ... it is highly divisive and that is just what the elite politicians and bankers want. It is a concerted effort by the few elite to control the masses. This strategy was first divised by the elite banking dynasty ... the Rothschilds. The strategy is easy ... PLAY BOTH SIDES! That way you are guaranteed to win! This strategy is older than the War Of 1812! It has been in the elite "playbook" right up to today ... Right through WW1 and WW2 the global bankers, who now push for a ONE WORLD, and more importantly a ONE WORLD CURRENCY, were even financing Hitler as they were also financing Churchill! Ethics were not the highest of priorities during and after WW2 ... study history and tell me what happened to all Hitler's top scientists? My point is that had people operated under the same corrupt fiat regime as we have today it would have been just as hard to decipher who is wearing the white hat! Who are the good guys? Are there really any good guys during war? I tend to defer to the US Constitution and our Founding Fathers who believed in LESS government and LESS war. The chances of LESS war are enhanced when we have LESS government.

Look ... I do not blame people who run the same squirrel cage mentality in voting. I do not blame Bin Laden or even Bush1 or Bush2. Most people just want to be left alone and live in a peaceful World, but the same people who came in during the 1920s and drew boundaries all through the Middle East and Africa that continues igniting tribal wars are the same people that draw the imaginary boundary between Republican and Democrat that divides this country even today! Such false boundaries fog truth and as long as the truth is unknown and the masses war with themselves then the elite bankers of the World can pilfer the real wealth of Nations using corrupt fiat paper IOUs. The same IOUs that reside in the US Social Security Trust Fund and the European Central Bank. Its a World of global IOUs ...

"60 Minutes Legitimizes Walking Away" (from your mortgage):

http://tinyurl.com/2vgyk5

"Bank Reserves Go Negative"

http://tinyurl.com/2qsy2g

"Not Your Father's Recession" (at this point, commentary and 'predictions' made 1/28 are somewhat dated, but the bigger picture still holds):

http://tinyurl.com/2opfoh

excerpts:

"“While Mr. Bernanke is clearly a very smart man, he seems to lack the market savvy of Paul Volcker in an era gone by.” To wit, if Mr. Volcker were still at the helm of the Fed, we think he would have let the markets plunge 500, 800, or even 1000 points so that they would reach a downside “cleaning price” on their own accord. When they hit that low, stabilized and started to “lift,” then and only then would Tall Paul have cut interest rates to “seal in” that low and put the wind at the back of the markets for a sustainable rally. What Mr. Bernanke did was best summarized by one old Wall Street wag who exclaimed, “He’s used the last aspirin in the bottle, yet we still have the headache!”

'As John Stuart Mill wrote in 1867, “Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed into hopelessly unproductive works.”'

N225 up 3%, Shanghai up 5%, HSI up 3.7%...but as well all know, it could all go south in the next few hours...

protect your gains, keep position sizes small, and adjust your trading to fit the environment...the fact that i ended up on the wrong side more times last week than in the previous four weeks tells me to scale back and wait for better conditions (ie, conditions where my trading style has an edge)...

"as we all know..." guess i don't look back either when typing...

riteside-> reference your 1230pm post: so far the SSE is moving exactly as scripted...

what a finish by the giants...

just back from SB party.....good movie script...pleasant dreams to all

I was hoping but not believing until it was over. The Giants were giants on defense.

When I read advice to "get rid of your debts for the coming environment", I'm puzzled.

I deliberate maximized my debt in US Dollars and put the money into Gold and HTE. I make the minimum payments, and plan to close the debt when the dollar index is at 40. Carrying at under 6%.

Why on earth whould I want to "get out of US Dollar debt"?

Has anybody used chartsmart.com ?

Does it have good info on canadian junior mining stocks? real time quotes?

TIA

2nd

Speaking to you from the pointy end of the Boomer Generation. My parents lived through the Great War (my father remembered, as a boy of 5 or 6 in London, England seeing Zeppelins dropping bombs on his neighbours). They lived through the Great Depression. They lived through the second world war. They were hardened by these experiences and, yes, they matured. The cost to them was a loss of inner peace, damaged health, and a sense that disaster was always lurking.

Let us never forget that the events that made the Greatest Generation great were the results of greed, arrogance and deceit on the part of people with power. Achieving "social equity" is also a matter of establishing freedom from fear.