Microsoft bids $44.6b for Yahoo.

Do you Yahoo?

http://tinyurl.com/3ytxmk

The timing was surprising.

I bought 3000 contracts of
the 22.50 YHOO FEB calls at .12c

[in my dreams]

Uranium - part 2. No sooner did I post that rumor about China wanting to buy an AUS copper miner than I see todays story that Chalco & Alcoa buy a $14B stake. Now if you buy into the rumor it was as much about RTPs little known Uranium reserves as anything else. I had been watching RTP's volumn hoping to see a glimpse of a deal in the making, but alas ..

YAHOO up more than 10pts in before market trading.

Craig... some news to wake up to uh?

This is a very tricky market. You can not lean too much on any one side. However, Bill, remember, if you are patient, it will come to you. You said that.
Now everyone check out what I say about Rick Rubin,Julian Roberts and the markets today..
http://wallastoninvestments.com/first-rally-day-since-first-capitulation-day-julian-roberts-and-rick-rubin-on-the-economy

LOL, so much for the nibblets of QID I bought at the close yesterday! Good thing I decided on a tight stop.

Although looking at it now, the bid/ask have stabilized PM, so I am wondering if the GOOG sell off will outweigh the YHOO uptick....on the broader QQQQ's

Oh yeah, just perfect.....

Do not follow me!!!!!
In my impatience I sold YHOO and of course went long QID for GOOG.....

So I'm down on QID and missed a huge move in YHOO. Sheer genius.

I see the response ends up correct for GOOG (down this AM) but I clearly have no crystal ball and I am dumb enough to not listen to the guy that does.

Jobs report may take some energy out of this push but you know how the street loves to run on this kind of news.

Here's an article from the New York Times explaining why we may be paying more in the near future for things from China.

http://tinyurl.com/3cfoky

Excerpt: " 'Companies are now ordering for the spring of 2009,” ' says Nate Herman, director of international trade at the American Apparel and Footwear Association, based in Arlington, Va., that represents some big clothing and footwear makers. “Factories are coming back and asking for 20, 30, 40, 50 percent price increases.” '

The article gives some mention but not much to the additional impact of the Yuan rise. You know, it really steams me how Paulson and some of our senators have been pushing China to let the Yuan rise, but did you EVER hear them say how this would lead to higher prices in the U.S.? I didn't.

Bill has taken me to task for being long on CCJ when the trend is against, and he is right. My biggest problem is being antedelluvian and a Buffett-ista. I need to learn that trading trumps fundamentals. I'm trying, really. This week I turn 50 so I will need to fast-track my education. Please don't cancel my "membership" just yet ...

Happy Birthday JR, I'm 5300 years old today.

I hope you get a better trade for your B'day than I did!

Now to go check the buy alerts on the Cara 100....

craig- the measure of a trader is how you handle trades that go against you->suspect you'll do fine...

finally have a tradeable open...positions->40% of normal allocation in QID, 20% in SKF...adding a little QID pre-market around 47, o/w will be trying to time a short-squeeze to complete positions...

This probably isn't the right day to admit I sold YHOO yesterday for a small profit.
CRRRR...RAP

KRY: hate to bring this up but ..

== The stock is beaten down by more than 50%

== why syndicated underwriters invest Cd $60 million ? it is a lot of money, are they crazy?

yahoo scenario?

long KRY

adding a little more QID on payrolls report...

YHOO - I bought 1 FEB $20 call earlier this week for $.55. WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Congrats Billy - now don't pile pressure on yourself wondering why you didn't buy 100 ;)

Isn't this a very bad deal for MSFT? Yahoo has some great products (my.yahoo It is my home page) but my impressions is that they are no match for Google in terms of profitability and potential growth. I see Yahoo declining not growing.

Bad job reports out, futures took a dive.

personally, don't see how/why YHOO bid changes anything market-wise...and certainly does not trump the drop in payrolls...completing a position in QID...

I think the job numbers will win the momentum war. I'll use any push to add to short positions.

Colin Twiggs call for a sharp reversal is very interesting. I know some here refer to TA as Pseudo-science, but just look at the results and how it plays out.

I'll accept my defeat on YHOO but I still think the trend is down with jobs.

Added to QID as well.

Exactly 2nd. My plan was to wait and go heavily short later in the AM, but the job reports threw that up in the air.

FXP- scaling into a position at 94.61...

Hi Craig - where did you get the Colin Twiggs info from?

You're reading my mind 2nd....

colin twiggs:

http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

Hi Jaketh,
From last nights trading diary.
http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

You can sign up to have it sent to your email for free.

Aussie and others:
Thanks for the posts last night about GIX and other juniors.
Following up on the query and comments about Eastmain Resources (ER.TO) and the Goldcorp connection…
GG bought in last spring and owns about 9.5% of the shares – also, some warrants, if exercised, raising the stake to 12% +.
Also, of note, is considerable institutional support, including Dundee Precious Metals, Sprott Asset Management (I was told that Sprott has participated in most financings),Anglo Pacific Group(recall, Aussie, these guys are big supporters also of Firestone Ventures -10%+), other European institutions, at least 5 Quebec institutions – at least 22 in all.
Also, there has been unflagging insider support – annual flow through share issues taken up by staff/insiders; CEO Don Robinson, who bought another 100,000 in the market in December, owns about 1.5million shares , some derived from exercise of options, NONE OF WHICH HE”S EVER SOLD.
And, ER has requisite cash for their 2008 program…
As you know, Grandich promotes ER; but, as far as I know, there has not hitherto been analyst coverage, until a few weeks ago…Genuity Capital… recommending…

I own some shares in ER.

Greetings from the ice covered Amish countryside.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

BMY - to Outperform @ Cowen & Co.
DIS - to Outperform @ Oppenheimer
ERTS - to Buy @ Broadpoint Capital
GRMN - to Buy @ Needham & Co.
GSK - to Neutral @ HSBC

Downgrade:

GOOG - to Hold @ Jefferies & Co.

Target Price Lowered:

BC - $23 to $22 @ RBC
ERTS - $66 to $58 @ Lazard Capital
GOOG - $725 to $675 @ Stifel Nicolaus
GOOG - $725 to $675 @ RBC
GOOG - $714 to $644 @ Lehman Bros
GOOG - $775 to $650 @ Citigroup
GOOG - $850 to $715 @ Oppenheimer

MSFT v AAPL: Long time I have thunk AAPL a far superior co. If I had the patience I would arbitrage, long AAPL & short MSFT. MSFT is a very weak tech co, but a very good marketing and strategy co. Maybe it's my former 20 yrs as a software developer, but nothing MSFT does impresses me. Buying YHOO is just another example of their true lack of innovative potential

2nd,
check your email....

Thx Craig. Re FXP you see China falling?

Craig,,,,think that was supposed to go to my cousin Jacksoo....I know, all us jacks look alike...

interesting PM QID action on ARCA and CINN exchanges.

Both are active and bid/ask moving back and forth from about 47.88-47.92 / 47.92-48.02

adjusting stop on QID down to 47.50

craig- behind a firewall this morning...

Clearly I don't know Jack....LOL!

Again, follow me at your own peril!

I think we sell off today on jobs and China goes with it. Lots of noise though, they will beat this MSFT/YHOO drum until it breaks, and it will.

I see Jim Rogers is short MSFT. Looks like his morning is going right.

Just a warning from BR that the jobs # will roil the market and overcome the YHOO noise.

Sent to both addy's so Mrs. 2nd likely has it.

Craig, QID/GOOG shows just goes to show how even when you are right you are wrong in this market.

For me, now everything I touch turns to dreck in this market. Today I tallied up my performance in January -- until the last two weeks I was having a great month. And then three very bad trades wiped out the last 3 months worth of steady improvement.

It's that sort of thing that makes you sick to your stomach.

To add insult to injury, this morning I woke up to find that my tight stop on QID didn't get executed yesterday afternoon because I made a simple error on the order. When your stars are properly aligned, you benefit from such mistakes. Not me, though. And I'm wondering what god or goddess I have offended as I have 0 winners in the last two weeks.

Hence my moniker. And maybe it's time for me to give the market a rest for awhile as that may be what the gods require.

All:

$spx 1387 and $spx 1406 are are worthwhile watching for market turning points ...

:) Will we sell off into the close ...? Something else to watch....sentiment/marketdirection after we enter a congestion zone today...seems like we sold off thru fridays on january twoards the close, will it continue?

craig- thanks..'confirmation' of any kind helps...

Bill,
I truly appreciate the effort you made to give me $5000 on the YHOO call. (500 shares).

For the record, I learned something. Again. When a stock is already hammered down, be patient and don't worry about further small losses because you already have the buy point. Writing it on my forehead with a sharpie.

Spot Gold futures and S&P futures all over the place. Should be interesting day.

SKF- opens in the green....

Simple. Watch FXY/FXF.
Both strong, we'll be weak.

Silver a little ahead of gold in terms of percentage gain. Seasonality should take hold here, so a confirmation of this would be an advance of Silver against over Gold.

I think we end down today. I think there's still too much fear of financials' holdings for Softie buying Yahoo to inspire many people to go long.

I think I read in the Hussman report or somewhere else yesterday that most market-timing hedge funds are on the sidelines because of the uncertainty.

Besides, I don't think Yahoo will help Softie beat Goog in the battle to take over the world. Goog has already killed Yahoo many times over and Softie is wasting their money in my opinion.

Rob.

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40029

this is an interesting article...he has been pounding the table on "minor metals" for a long time...perhaps some juniors that focus on these, that have projects in politically stable areas, could be smart additions to the cara 100 juniors.

Pressure on FXF a little on FXY....gold holding but not advancing...where is Ben and Hank?

Anyone keeping an eye on the PPT?

What if Yahoo's board rejects the offer because they somehow think they can get their stock up on their own. Just wondering if Yahoo's share price would collapse then.

Here are the 8 banks joining to rescue ABK and MBI. You can bet these banks must have the most to lose if the bond insurers go belly-up

CNBC said the banks include Barclays Plc (LSE:BARC.L - News), BNP Paribas (Paris:BNPP.PA - News), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News), Allianz's (XETRA:ALVG.DE - News) Dresdner Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (LSE:RBS.L - News), Societe Generale (Paris:SOGN.PA - News), UBS AG (VTX:UBSN.VX - News) and Wachovia Corp
(NYSE:WB - News).

http://tinyurl.com/3cck5n

Rob.

THANK YOU BILL CARA!!! I am a NEW ally willing to help. Looking to enter SKF at 91.50. Walmart prices on grocery up. Example .72 pasta on sale for .97. Sale? Yeah right. I have photographic memory, will post Walmart information regularly. Will find out if Walmart 30% price reduction is true tonight. Will answer any questions regarding Walmart or music industry. Lets go make some $$$$...

bg- are you buying?

FXP- adding at 92.60...

palladium at 400/oz. PAL ramping back up...any ideas why, other than the SA power outage? More importantly, how much more do the Russians have to dump on the market...

2nd...

I am already knee deep in way too many bullish positions...

I am looking to unload above 1400 in S&P Futures...

AND THEN GO SHORT SHORT SHORT...

I think this rally has a little more to SQUEEZE

Etrade was been beat up for a good reason,(subprime exposure/loss) but I think the company can start turning their loss around if given enough time. So far the equity has been under selling pressure, but the price has been inching it's way back up this week.
I'm buying now.

Gee, glad to see no conflict of interest there

"Here are the 8 banks joining to rescue ABK and MBI. You can bet these banks must have the most to lose if the bond insurers go belly-up

CNBC said the banks include Barclays Plc (LSE:BARC.L - News), BNP Paribas (Paris:BNPP.PA - News), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News), Allianz's (XETRA:ALVG.DE - News) Dresdner Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (LSE:RBS.L - News), Societe Generale (Paris:SOGN.PA - News), UBS AG (VTX:UBSN.VX - News) and Wachovia Corp
(NYSE:WB - News)."

Sorry Guys We got 12" of SNOW here in Chicago...

I will be in and out most of the day...Gotta plow out my parents, inlaws...and anyone that waves me down as I pass...

Sorry I have a good heart...And a plow truck :^)

Watchin my SNDK...FLY FLY AWAY...

It is good to be here with all of you

Delayed quote on NOT.to shows 4.42.
Any current out there? TIA.

Agriculture moving up this a.m.

breadth is 4:1 positive...and heading north...revisit short potential at resistance.....$SPX 1405 area.....

Check it out, cnbc has all these new etrade commercials showing 1000 new users a day, it seems like a way to sucker in new accounts before they go under. Anyone agree?

man, is this some tough trading or what...

QQQQs are flying with GOOG down 48?

Re: NOT $4.47 last trade

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:11 AM EST
Last Price: 4.47 CAD
Market: CA
Change: +0.19
Last Traded: 01 Feb 2008 at 10:10 AM EST.
Tick: Stock/option has positive growth and is 'up'.
Bid / Size: 4.45 / 71
Ask / Size: 4.47 / 26
Open: 4.35
Previous Close: 4.28

2nd ave: Trade with it...not against it...jobs number suck..market moving north ..so what? trade with the trend till it reverses..

FXP- adding part 3 at 91...

For the second day in a row GOLD price is up and NEM is weak. I haven't checked any others but I have June 45 puts on NEM. It seems like one of the weaker majors if you watch it.

Rob.

EEM- wish i'd taken your advice about 30 minutes ago ;)

Rob...

Check again GOLD GETTING HAMMERED

Is that right? GOLD at 910 right now? Where do you guys go for live gold prices?

And with the dollar down?

Rob.

feel like i'm walking my positions up a sand dune and into the wind...

feel like i'm walking my positions up a sand dune and into the wind...

Denny,
Re: China
I have a contact in China that works for a manufacturer. Late last year the "owner" manager insisted he start billing the American accounts in Canadian dollars! He talked him out of it of course. Since then their exports have dropped slightly due to the price increases, but their domestic sales have increased! While the west is busy putting out the fires of their own making China is increasing domestic consumption and preparing for the time North Korea will be accepted in the world community. Guess who will be at the forefront of industrializing that nation and supplying China and the West with cheap goods? Just a thought... Cheers

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:29 AM EST
Last Price: 4.38 CAD

Is that right? GOLD at 910 right now? Where do you guys go for live gold price.

Oh, I see the reason. The dollar bounced hard off 75 and is now at 75.35

Rob.

wavesmash- HGD up 4%...

2nd AVE:

MArket looks like stalling...never never trae the first 20-30 minutes...too much emotion and carry over from last nite...wait for the market to settle down..the 700 am catalyst to kick in then FOLLOW THE TREND...

Marke is stalling now as I type though...it looks like reversing..so you may redeem those QID FXP and be highly profitable. Time to revisit short fules..if this reversal holds

FORGET the PPT, FOCUS on PTTV- Price, Trend , Time, V0lume - sorry ...it pays to be dumb and play follow the leader ...

Figer Lakes:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

uh oh!!

Sorry softie DOW just went negative :):):)

Rob.

Kaimu,
Regrading Australian miners: Do you have an opinion on Mcarthur Minerals (iron ore)?
$26 million marketcap and thinly traded. Thanks.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 15, 2008) - Macarthur Minerals Limited (TSX VENTURE:MMS) today announced it has completed the second tranche of its C$2.8 million non-brokered private placement to help fund the Company's Lake Giles magnetite iron ore and base metals project in Western Australia.
Each unit is comprised of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant is exercisable into one common share at a price of C$2.00 per share and has a term of 18 months from date of issue.

First Apollo Capital Limited 1,000,000 units
Pinetree Capital Limited 500,000 units
Longview Strategies Inc. 500,000 units

Pinetree and Longview are each classified as an insider of the Company by virtue of holding greater than 10% of the Company's issued and outstanding shares upon completion of the financing. Current price is $1.58
http://tinyurl.com/37fdu7

Rob,

You can get live spot gold price from kitco
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Or follow the Gold ETF: GLD
if you have real-time quotes...

Tim

French_canuck,
Thanks!!

Rob.

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:29 AM EST
Last Price: 4.38 CAD

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:30 AM EST
Last Price: 4.40 CAD

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:33 AM EST
Last Price: 4.43 CAD

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:34 AM EST
Last Price: 4.45 CAD

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:40 AM EST
Last Price: 4.40 CAD

NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:37 AM EST
Last Price: 4.40 CAD

Hi,

Volatility....

marketwatch still has the YHOO bid headlined, and the jobs drop boxed off to the side...when that switches, we'll definitely be in negative territory...

tailwind kicking in...

Hi again,

The cliff dive this morning looks like someone is liquidating, because if is happening across several asset classes.

Can be just a portfolio, or something else, nobody knows.

Re gold: it appears not to be a tipical "supression" move, as the fall in prices is also happening in equities and other asset classes.

If this was a supression move, then gold wold fall, but not equities.

Finally, equities go on falling at this point, and the fall in gold seems to be contained for the time being.

Do not trade this emotionally.

Cheers,

Bloomberg is saying that the loss in jobs in the US implies that the FED will be cutting again.

Another gold bullish fact.

This movement smells like distribution all over...

tailwind kicking in...

Close your shorts for now.

maromatics- OK, taking 60% of QID off here..

2nd AVE: I put up the support resistance zones for the $SPX...you can see where FXI turned around at prior peaks on a 5 day..that will be a good short entry..

dont like to give advice on when to short or when to go long...no one can read the market..but you can see with your eyes in real time...:)

Always prefer to fish than to be fed...makes me more self reliant and no one to blame...:) personal philosophy..

Bought Juggernaut MSFT at 30.75 couldnt resist, looking to sell at 33. With Halo 4 and Bungie's Marathon games in the works/pipeline for xbox, couldnt resist.

"Fed Announces Auctions Totaling $60 Billion in February to Combat Credit Crisis"

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve said Friday it will provide $60 billion in fresh cash to commercial banks in two auctions in February and will keep holding auctions every other week for as long as needed to ease the credit crisis."

As long as needed. This is one reason I have been hesitant to go short right away. It just seems like they are throwing everything at this they can.

I only need about ~$250m. CDN. for development cash.

ONE HAS TO WONDER WHY...

denny
The Fed is throwing everything they can at the banks.
The stimulus package is nothing more then moratorium on taxes for the banks stupid gambling losses. They are just smart enough disguised the stimuli as a $300.00 welfare check to working person. In 2008, those working people will pay federal and state taxes on their free money. The banks will NOT!

Not that I like to trade charts, but...

Anyone else see a nice inverse H&S forming in NORONT...NOT...

All we need now is a fall back to about the 3.75 level...Am I nuts?

Oh, boy...get ready the short positions...GWB is speaking on the economy soon.

2nd,
I'm using a 5 min 1 day chart w/RSI/Stoch/macd/williams%r.

If I'm in the XLF or related, I use DJIA 5min/1day chart with same studies side by side.
These days the financials seem to be tightly correlated to the DJIA so I use to confirm before I move.

Used with EEM's resistance/support (where he is right we see the turns) it gives you a really nice look.

Fed is definitely throwing what they can on the fire. I'ts a doozy of a blaze. I'm just surprised the bulls still want to party with the house burning down

2nd...

don't want to talk about HGD or YHOO... lol. I had both... plus I had USO @ $43 last year and was putting in stink bids (that didn't get hit) on POT at $86 before it split at $150+. Picked up some GLD at $58 a couple years ago... blah blah..

I am happy, don't care about this market and in cash.

Awaiting delivery of Bill's book.

I'll probably start testing some option strategies later this year, but for now things are too wierd... too much obvious manipulation, election year politics, and too many big dinosaurs stepping around squashing stuff.

MSFT's down 6%. I wonder how the 60,000 employees feel about the YHOO bailout?

"That's a lot to pay for flickr."
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/

I think they should have bought a bank instead... better value & synergy since MSFT is really just a bank anyway.

Yahoo Founder resigned yesterday too.

Semel had the chance to buy Google for a couple of billion... so I don't feel so bad now with my investment decisions.

Here's an interesting play for those who didn't Get Yahoo? yet. Buy Microsoft. (I had it at $24... dumped it at $31... will buy in again at $22 maybe)

"US Bank spending on Basel II-related risk management IT will increase by 30% over the next two years to exceed $1b in 2009, according to Aite Group."

http://tinyurl.com/37fo8z

Of course, this comes from a risk software company so take it with a grain of salt. Should be good for MS though.

This won't be...

Release the justice department hounds!
http://tinyurl.com/3clxzl

Holding tight onto my ultras. If they manage to rally it, I'll just ride it out. They can't keep this up forever. :-)

Zenob - They don't have to keep it up forever; just until you can't stand it anymore.

question - if 125 bp cut can't get gold past recent high range (900-940), then is the good news already priced in? anyone thinking gold is going down for the time being?

All..while we wait for market to get out of this congestion zone..test this

Trend indicators:

whatever security you trade, have a fast trend indicator. I offer one here, as RSI seems popular, for those who wish to experiment, remember I watch mainly 3/10/30 min charts. Play with it

in the same indicator panel..set an RSI 5 and a RSI 45 set RSI 5 to green and the other red, watch the trend indication and the pullback to the trend, and then trend continuation...

test it...its an easy one to set to your strategy test or strategy alert if you use one...

While we wait for the market to resolve what seems like a congestion zone...here is something to experiement with to test if we are trading with the trend.

since RSI is popular,in the same panle..rsi (7-Green) and rsi (45 - red.)REmember I use 3/10/30 min charts..it works on daily..kinda slow.

Watch if its a good trend indicator for you, and a pullback within a trend..and when trend reverses.

I put in some stink bids on GLD and miners on sale. They will pound it down and it will be our chance. I'm torn between Bill's upper 700's call and CT's support in the 870's area (as I recall offhand).

SLW didn't come back as much as I thought but there were some decent chances at GFI today and I'm sure more to come.

Great comment, OldGoat. Old, but wise.

"Thus I eventually discovered that it was all very well not to lose your bear position in a bear market, but that at all times the tape should be read to determine the propitiousness of the time for operating. If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight."

"...there is no profit in being wrong at any time."

-- Jesse Livermore

Anyone interested in uranium should take a look at the Uranium Participation fund - U.TO. It is a fund that has holdings in physical uranium inventories. The 5-day chart looks interesting, might be setting up for a nice pop later today.

Did anyone hear about the GCC?
It's a new commodity ETF that opened today.

I've heard that some mutual funds/hedge funds can only enter a stock above the $5.00 and $10.00 mark. But can they enter on a stock hitting this price intraday or only if the stock closed at this price the previous day? Looking at ETFC, if funds can buy based on previous days close then looking to take small position if it appears that it will close above $5.

You know I'm no fan of GW, but it is amazing how he can turn a stoch signal south by talking.
I feel sorry for the SOB now. How will he and Cheney look in history? It's sad for all involved.

This is the second day in a row where the Treasury Bond yields have gone down while the market goes up.

This means people are buying bonds the same time they're buying stocks??

Something is fishy here which makes me want to load up on more shorts!!

Rob.

As always when Bush speaks there is a clever talking point post behind him. Today it was, " Boosting The Economy". Someone correct me, when you boost something doesn't also mean to steal it. How fitting.

$spx1385 - watch it..

EEM- great real time tutorial..

Re: GW

Forget about how posterity might view the Bush adminstration. I doubt if any of these people are truly held in high esteem by their peers, let alone historians.

1385 goes down. Did you see how low the RS line was at 1385? right between 30 and 70.

Rob.

No idea whether this will happen...

but prepare for an equidstant move from the opening high..to the mid.range..and from the mid range...no idea up or down...but we will know when it breaks the range...either way

Getting tired watching these wild swings. Echoing Bill's commend yesterday about straddle, I will be looking into that on the weekend. Happy trading, everyone.

QUOTE - "Traders need to be in straddles because these moves are extreme.

Posted by: Bill Cara at January 31, 2008 4:04 PM"

LOL! A fund guy holding 145,000 shares of YHOO is trying to whip the price to $35.

What are the chances of GOOG bidding just to F with Mr. Softy?

RSI/stoch/W%R/macd all turned south at 1383 or so. Right after the speech.

GW in History: Lincoln, Truman, most generally unpopular presidents, thought to be headed to dustbin of history, turn out to be among most revered. Bill Clinton, revealed as oval office philanderer,formal liar, emerges as champion of his party. Only thing as unpredictable as tomorrow's history is this afternoon's market.

Any thoughts on using a strangle instead of a straddle?

Did someone post a Genuity mining exploration report a few days ago. I couldn't find it via the search on the site and was wondering if it could be posted again.

Preparing for the PDAC.

Thanks - RS

Rob d - thanks for the heads up on minor metals juniors.

ANYONE interested in JUNIORS needs to read the "golden" posts from Aussie, Fred, and Kaimu of yesterday's discourse. Also Joey's recent posts. Reinforcement for the juniors that have been recent favorites within this community and much more.

One critical theme: regulatory risk, with Kaimu asking: why add regulatory risk on top of exploration and economic risk. Aussie asking whether Ecuador (Aurelian) will tip towards Venezuela or towards pragmatism.

These posts are "nuggets" right on the surface!

I don't agree.
The discussion is of Presidents, meaning leadership and administrative ability.

From most accounts all of the above named were good Presidents and administrators.

They all had personal foibles as did/do all Presidents.
Do we put BC in the same class as Nixon? Nixon was a good President, a bad man. Overthrow the government kind of bad, not BJ bad. GW is in the Nixon camp. Do I think BC was an idiot? No question. It doesnt rise however to the level of incompetence or level of alarm we should be at now. Adultery is in a different category and is a distraction from real BAD MEN. Kill people/overthrow government bad. We have every right to ask those questions and absolutly none about Mr. or Mrs. Clinton's private sex life.
Instead of lying about it he should have told the investigators it was none of their business.

I voted for Bill twice and would not vote for him or his wife now. That and $3 gets me a Starbucks coffee.

All I care about now is competence and honesty in *government*.

green arrow
You mighty of already looked at insider trading on ETFC, but just incase you didn't click on the link below.
9 directors bought into the etrade hype wednesday.
Maybe they think there is hope, or may just be it is a smoke screen.

http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001015780&ticker=etfc

re gold, on jan 22 I mentioned the ihs that was about to breakout with a po of close to 940, the low today has touched the neckline, we now have 2, 4 hr candles on top fwiw
Gld is testing the top rail from nov 2006 and has bounced a bit.

Euro action was crazy today wow!

Forgive my correction, Jaketh, but the three presidents whom historians view as the best are (in order of preference): Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Washington; they are followed by Teddy Roosevelt and Truman.

Source link:
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/presrankings1.html

I was privileged to grow up under F.D.R. and to have him as my Commander-In-Chief during WWII. To say that I "revere" him would be an unforgivable understatement. He brought us through the worst times in the last 150 years, not by threatening or fear-mongering, but by pure Inspiration. Would that we might be privileged to again see such a giant of leadership...certainly not the midgets and dweebs of the past 50 years.

Correction: make that "last 40 years". Kennedy never had time to make his lasting presence felt, and Eisenhower would be my second choice for best of my lifetime.

And FDR had a mistress.

GREAT leader, but a man.
They just never asked.

Q: How can the market go nowhere for hours after all the recent volatility?
With billions of dollars and millions of decisions, it seems strange

So did Eisenhower.

RE: $SPX..keep an eye on the 30 min/ 10 move ave as support

I am behind the news curve today but is this 8 banks to the rescue of the monolines serious or is this SuperSIV all over? Fake HB&B news to crush shorts and buy time?

Other than MSFT buying Yahoo what else is news worthy?

thanks.

So did Kennedy.

It definitely seems like someone doesn't want this market to drop. Maybe they're trying to squeeze it up until after Super Tuesday?

Anyone got any play on ABK or MBI?

I'm seriously thinking about shorting ABK but with all the promises of bailouts I'm fearful. Maybe that's the best time to pounce though.

Rob.

I've followed and invested in Aurelian. No position now; the political risk is too concerning. Ecuador is working on a new mining law which may have an "excessive profits" tax. Who knows how they will define this. They are also considering setting up a state mining company. However, they have also indicated they want to mold their mining laws on Brazil's. Who knows what is going to happen and you can bet the small investor will be the last to know.

The news agencies have a habit of hyping every negative word on mining out of Ecuador which knocks the share price momentarily and then gets bought back up.

One junior to look at in my opinion is Exmin. They just started producing small scale at the Morris mine in Mexico and will be cash flow positive which they will use to further exploration on their other 12 properties.

1:00 buy programs kicking in.

Bill,

Thanks for your confirmation of a positive long-term outlook for uranium this morning. I decided to make a re-entry into CCO this morning and am prepared to scale into it with any further decline in price. To comment on the use of new cash by Goldcorp, I can only say that I would pay serious money to have a peek at the flight log on their executive jet. If it has been to VZ recently I know where I would be putting my speculative money based on all that has been said here over the past two years. Be well!

Thanks bigwad! I heard about the insider buying, didn't know if was over 350,000 shares at market value. Guess they plan on a nice bounce from super bowl ad. Add to that short covering, funds that can enter at $5, might be enough to push it to $10 where even bigger fund are allowed to enter. Will be buying more calls today. Hopefully on a dip between 2-3:30. Any one know if funds can buy when a stock reaches $5 during the day or only if a stock closed at that price the previous day?

So did GW Bush...

http://www.thingstolookat.com/calendar/

Craig,
Interesting that you've changed your mind about BC, but my point was only that contemporary popularity is not a good indicator of historical judgement. Historians haven't really begun to assess BC as a president, as all that depends mostly on 20-20 hindsight, and his administration may really just be in mid-term. He may very well rise long term above his indiscretions. As to whether he is a good and honest man, Hillary knows best about that. I have the feeling that sooner or later, she is going to tell us.

So did Bush senior?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-1268535,00.html

Basketguy: You still holding GLD south of $90?

Back at 1385.

Craig, RE: GFI - given the volume, this must be some huge position being liquidated today. I just find it hard to believe that the power situation (which looks to be restored to 90%), plus the price target change could generate this much action. ANyone have any news?

I would also doubt the the drop in the pog would do it, either.

Writer,

"To comply with this instruction, and in the interest of safety, production at Gold Fields’ operations is being pulled back to the 80% power level."
..according to resource investor....maybe the extra 10% means something to somebody?

GFI, no news. Power back to 90%.

I notice we bounced off 1385/12690 again.
It's pretty cool to watch my stoch start to roll over and the W%R go with it.

Anyone entertaining buying GOOG or MSFT?

GS- Check that chart out...pointing to market direction?

EEMTRADER...

Todays strong leg down..knocked me out of a few positions...

I think there is more short term downside ahead after a nice run...I am targeting the 890.00 level for a possible bounce, but watching very close..

The $$$ seems to find A LOT of support around this 75 level, I have been looking for a spike down in the dollar and spike up in GOLD which has not happened yet...

GFI: the low is 13.28.
My truck and trailer are waiting....

EEM
GS looks just like Bear Stearns Chart.

Thanks, Jaketh, and Craig - RE: truck - me, too.

Jaketh...GS broke a downtrendlie on dailies...look at difference in price movement today and on the dailies....that is some stock on gas

Craig,

just for clarity on GFI, order restoring to 90% was withdrawn, if that makes a difference.

BG: Ok..big move down for GLD ...curious..whaddup..my gurus in the currency world..agree with you ...more downside..lower before higher. Me know nothing about gold

Jaketh, it was again restored to 90% last night.

Craig, but reversed his morning.

I just go to my trusty news headlines from all sources and it tells me 90% in the last two stories.

Still down 10% which would acct for price.
With lower POG expected no surprises.

Really? Okay ... it's a double reverse reversal, I guess.

GS selling off

EEMTRADER...Re GOLD

Lots of things happening in the gold market..

Commercials are short WAY SHORT..They seem to be throwing the kitchen sink at getting the price down.

Dollar coming down to support area (Which I don't think will hold)

Weak hands getting scared after such a run up

Article in WSJ by GATA..??Re Gold

Some talk that CHINA is proping up dollar because they know their dollars will be worth wooden nickles soon...

I am turning out the news and still looking for a thrust to 1000...Always CHOPPY towards the top and bottom...

Craig -- RE GCC: Ashmead Pringle of GreenHaven Commodity Services was on FastMoney recently to discuss GCC. LINK = http://www.cnbc.com/id/22934551. [incl VIDEO] I think RJI is perhaps better.

Fozziebear...

I love that...You would'nt happen to have a child under the age of 5?

My son is a Muppets junky...He is 2 1/2

Craig,
You're correct. . Yahoo lists reversal headline as most recent posting, but looks like an issue of international time versus u.s. time.
Price drop may have more to do with "Gold Fields Tgt cut to $18 from 20.5 by Natl. Bank." this morning before opening.

Anyone see MU in the last 2 weeks?

Up 10% today alone...

I know it was pulled as a Cara 100, but my god..

Disclosure (I sold some puts awhile back)

So I said on Jan 22/23, they wont let the market crash w the NY Giants in the SuperBowl, well...
What happens on Monday? hehe

Looks like da boyz is makin' a run on Dow 12800 and SP 1400.

February 1, 2008: Vancouver, British Columbia: Continuum Resources Ltd (TSXV: CNU) announces that it has entered into a Letter of Intent (“LOI”) with Mr. Raul Diaz, Continuum’s former General Manager in Mexico, for the sale of Continuum’s 70% interest in the claims constituting the Natividad Mine (the “Natividad Property”), along with a further 100% of the surrounding Natividad properties wholly-owned by Continuum (collectively the “Surrounding Properties”). All of these properties will be vended into a private Mexican company (“Privco”) to be formed by Mr. Diaz. Disclosure: Long CNU.
http://tinyurl.com/2e7xz2

Someone check this out...
JCP has a neat little intraday flag/triangle at 48.32.
The downside support is 47.81

Carl Icahn is involved.

Is Continuum's deal with Privco a good thing for Continuum?

Long CNU.V following the recent buy alert.

There is a real dis-connect between QID and the $NDX. NDX is up .75%, and QID is down 3.14%.

Wo' hoppen?

ronbon: QId inverse of QQQQ not the composite

anybody know why TCK is up almost 9% today? They issued a comment on their reddog mine and lowered production estimates on Highland Valley copper production, so what gives?

Those of you playing a possible airline merger involving DAL-----now at 18 handle, up 7.55%.

Long Feb 17.5 DAL calls

SteveC,
IMO, it's not good. They messed up bad with Natividad in terms of environmental stewardship.

The WSJ has reported that Carl Icahn has been amassing a stake in J.C.Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP). Unfortunately, the WSJ is citing "people familiar with the matter." Those people are not always clear and not always perfect, although we'd be under the opinion that the WSJ wouldn't have run this based solely on "people" if it hadn't gotten confirmation from unrelated sources that may know.

We don't know the size of the stake taken if this really occurred, although one noted that the holding may be on of the larger holdings. As J.C.Penney has a $10+ Billion market cap, there is a lot of stock that could be acquired.

We'll probably get to find out if this is real or if this isn't tonight, because Carl Icahn is scheduled to appear briefly on CNBC's FAST MONEY at 5:00 PM EST.

So far J.C.Penney shares are up a bit over 1% at $48.00, although the stock has traded as high as $49.14 today. The 52-week trading range is $33.27 to $87.18. While many retail stocks were punished hard, JCP shares are actually up so far in 2008.

CEO Ullman is one of Jim Cramer's favorite CEO's as well so we'd expect Cramer to be discussing this tonight on CNBC's MAD MONEY as this is a retail stock and within his current trends.

Jon C. Ogg

Sorry, EEM, but QID is inverse of Nasdaq 100. ($NDX)

I have been nervous about shorting this market (and will continue to be so as long as others continue to short) because I believe that the issues surrounding the credit market could be close to disasterous if not contained. Therefore, the current administration, including the Fed and Treasury will do anything in their power to curtail a disaster. What does that mean? Liquidity in various forms, some visible, some by the invisible hand of the Working Group (PPT) will be brought to the market. Simply look at who is running the Treasury and the Fed. Wall Street big wig and an economist who, up to now, must be viewed as politically driven by his actions. If the President knew the credit issues that were in place, what better replacement for Greenspan than an economist who had a firm belief that a "helicopter drop" of liquidity would stave off any negative issues that may occur. He has published papers on the subject, so there will not be any "convincing" to be done.

What does my view have to do with trading? IMO, the ability to squeeze equity shorts will be used at every opportunity. If the economy slows, and the equity market falls, where will future tax income be raised? This has to be on the administrations mind.

This is not to say that the PPT has the ability to push markets where they want, simply that they will be working overtime to try.

How does the typical trader with a longer term timeframe manage a diversified portfolio with that view? The same as always, with a few adjustments. Use buy and sell alerts in a more prudent manner. Buy less equities than normal and take profits on major moves, keeping your overall equity position underweighted. Sell/short equities in larger than normal trades. Buy gold at oversold levels. Stay consistent, keep risk levels low and don't let your emotions come to the forefront of decisions. Watching the tape is the best way to go. For the first time that I can recall, Bill has been mentioning straddles on a fairly consistent basis for making money in this type of market. He also mentions using buy alerts as places to sell - basically selling rallies. There is nothing wrong with closing out trades at small losses if you were wrong - you need to do this as always. I am rambling now (I'm under the weather, still), I guess I'll post it anyway.

Maybe the best action for most readers here is to wait for weekly and/or monthly buy/sell alerts or do nothing at all.

$spx cleared resistance level that eemtrader and I have been mentioning as well as the 38.2% fib. If it continues to run up, it will meet the 50% retracement with RSI 7 possibly over 70 at the time. Tough to rally at those levels.

$gold is rolling over on the RSI. If gold falls abruptly, the uptrend line and the November high may end up close to overlapping with the trendline forming first support on the way down.

Good luck to all. I am fighting a bug, so I feel a little "woozie" and may not be making alot of sense but I hope this helps anyway.

ronbon....the QQQQ is nasdaq 100...
see

http://www.proshares.com/funds

Oh no!

Is this the Cramer contrarian indicator?
And FM too?

It was a Cara 100 buy alert a while back.
All that changes is the possible timeline if a whale gets involved.

BUYING SOME SKF...

Rob D, thanks for that. Everything Jack Lifton writes is exceptional. Another guy who is interesting is "Mark Anthony" from Seeking Alpha / http://stockology.blogspot.com/. He comes across a little like a nut case, except his analysis is deep and his calls are spot on over the long run.

Palladium is undervalued anyway, but is getting a bump as a Platinum substitute. However, the hydrogen economy = Palladium, because of its affinity to hydrogen. For instance, cold fusion uses palladium as the catalyst, and is a chemical process with nuclear outcomes, not the other way around. PAL is an exceptional buy still IMHO.

basket - maybe you should check the latest COT data on gold shorts. Last weeks report did not show a historically high NET short position in the Commercial category. This weeks report will give us a good view on how they reacted to the recent rally. Sure they are short, they always are, but not more than normal. We will soon find out.

EEM:
...and the benchmark index shown is the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is $NDX....or am I really turned around???? However it turns out, thanks for caring.

ronbon...if you want to watch price differentials...then watch QQQQ they match up as inverse..if you want to watch index they dont match ..just like the $spx and spy. Thought your question was why the QID price % dont match...they match the QQQQ..but bid n ask can change.

BasketGuy: No kids. Been a Muppet junkie since mid 1970s. As I've pointed-out to anyone who remarks about the big poster on the wall behind me right now, The Muppet Show was WRITTEN for adults. Most kids couldn't understand 75pct of the jokes.

g034...Thanks, I know not a high number...I should have said a number that are WAY UNDER WATER...

I will be looking at the new data ...Thanks

g034 - thank you for your "rambling". I couldn't agree with you more. I'm sitting on ~70% cash, and my emotions (read: greed) are making for hairy trigger to buy the ultra shorts. But you are right - trade small lots, take profits on rallies. Buy another day if you missed anything, because the prices will always come to you.

Based on the last couple weeks of movements, I'm going to do some number crunching on straddle/strangles. There are also some good names to be picked up, so watch the RSI's of Cara 100.

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but there is no such thing as cold fusion yet. At best their are a few experiments with ambiguous results that may or may not be repeatable. I wouldn't factor in cold fusion to my investment strategies. More info here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion

Thanks, EEM. They both correlate, but today the QQQQ is up .55% and QID is down 1.49%. Still a disconnect? or is there another explanation???

Sorry; QID down 1.39% and QQQQ up 1.22%. Much closer; thanks.

There seems to be an imbalance in the 44bil bid msft has offered for yhoo.
Exxon revenue for 2007 tops out at over 400bil....

What a joke this Iraq war has turned out to be. Is all the death worth all those $billions?

An Electro Magnetic Perpetual Motion engine may put a damper on those $billions.

Another error (my specialty today): QID down 3.31%; QQQQ up 1.22%; and $NDX up .83%. Still a disconnect with QID from both.

Out of FNC.V at 1.78. Will reenter on a significant pullback.

RON: I think the Profunds prospectus points to better correlation for EOD prices..during the day..market bids can be all over..the market makers gotta make their cut...try the EEV and FXP....they really take a chunk out...

Out of SLB....

Loaded up QID/FXP/SDS

Still holding RDS.A/SA/SLW

and of course the widow maker "UXG"

Adding to SKF.

IMHO, the world financial structure is a house of cards.

It is BH. BTW, if C is one of the banks on the rescue plan of ABK/MBI, where are they coming up with money for that?

IB wouldn't fill a last min purchase of 10 shares of SKF- oh yeah I'ma big spender- showed error msg saying I was showing day trade pattern. Anybody had that happen before?

re TCK - zinc problems in China seem to be the only catalyst...zinifex in australia up big as well...

Photogray

I think that you will get that message on IB if you use a trading account with balance of less than $25,000 when you try to do 3 round trips on the same stock, in the same week.

I have had this happen before. It is due to "day trading" restrictions for accounts w/ less than $25,000.

I have also found that there absolutely no restrictions for trading Canadian stocks. I.E. you can buy/sell the same (canadian) stock all day long without incurring any restrictions.

Anyone get in on the U.TO? It broke out of its triangle this afternoon and started climbing nice and steady into the close. I think the spot uranium price will be stabilizing here in the $75 range.

TCK and other miners are up on the Rio Tinto deal - Chinese and Alcoa taking a minority stake in RTP.

Photogray/Billy:

I believe it also applies to accts >$25K; however you can get margin permission(but never use it) which allows you unlimited RTs. At least that applies to my rollover IRA acct (which I trade).

SiO2,

Q: "if C is one of the banks on the rescue plan of ABK/MBI, where are they coming up with money for that?"

A: http://tinyurl.com/3x5j5b

:^)

Regards

Bill...Nice one...

I found another source

Q: "if C is one of the banks on the rescue plan of ABK/MBI, where are they coming up with money for that?"

http://tinyurl.com/383oy4

This article really drives the point home about Teck and why the price serge today as it may relate to Chinese demand for zinc.

"..You can buy Teck Cominco, one of the top 10 mining companies in the world and one of the top two zinc-producing companies today for five times earnings and less than three times cash flow with a 3.5% dividend! Are you kidding me?"

"..Three billion people are improving their standard of living and they will be consuming more of everything. Make sure we own what China needs, not what China produces! Emerging markets consumption is now the driver!"

http://preview.tinyurl.com/28d4gx

Is there anywhere I can find a list of the canandian miners that trade on the pink sheets here in the USA.?

Just wondering...

oops that url does not work. If you want to read the full article, go to tdwaterhouse.ca and you will find it under news for tck symbol Jan 23 Talkback. The url for tdwaterhouse does not change from one page to the other. Sorry I did not know that.
Bill thanks again to you and your contributors for creating this most amazing site. cheers

secondary metals, rare earth elements - thx, RobD

The article flagged by Rob D this morning is the most intelligent article on these subjects I have ever seen - this from a TRADE journal ! -

I delved into rare earths last year and concluded NO investment made sense until the US gov't did something strategic to counteract China's dominance of these minerals - crucial for myriad high tech applications.

The real reason that Occidental/Molycorp's Mountain Pass rare earth facility is shut down has MUCH more to do with geopolitics and cartel interests than with (smokescreen) environmental issues.

Every time any project anywhere starts to move to production, the Chinese drop the price, or threaten new supply of the particular key minerals from that project.

And here comes a concrete, strategic proposal which does that (counter foreign resource nationalism in this area) and more ! -

This article suggests that secondary industrial metals and rare earth minerals (rather than gold) are the true long-term stores of value for the new century.

I suspect that's true for a healthy, growing global economy, but perhaps not for this particular global economy where demand for industrial and even military applications may fall off in the next few years' recession.

If economies do go weak, and if HB&B must pay the bills that are coming due, gold and gold miners are the likely financial "comfort food" for Middle Easterners, Indians, Chinese, and even Westerners until a recovery (in the teens?) leads to healthier minerals in the world's "economic diet" .... FWIW

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40029

ALOHA !!

This one act speaks volumes to what the Bush administration really thinks about rebuilding Iraq and the future of democracy in the Middle East. No infrastructure exists for rebuilding Iraq much less infrastructure for democracy.

Keep thinking of the USA as a corporation. Imagine any shareholder supporting the current business model of the Iraq War! Is there anyone who would not have voted to get out? Only the US Taxpayers could shoulder such massive losses. The US Taxpayers are the most unrepresented shareholders the World has ever seen! The US government is the most oppressive management and the least innovative I have ever seen. Oh ... and they keep two set of books! Look at that GOLDEN PARACHUTE ... in one word "immunity"!

READ ON:
Iraq not using oil cash to rebuild
By Sharon Behn
Washington Times
January 30, 2008

Increased Iraqi oil revenues stemming from high prices and improved security are piling up in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York rather than being spent on needed reconstruction projects, a Washington Times study of Iraq's spending and revenue figures has shown.

U.S. officials and outside analysts blame the collapse of the country's political and physical infrastructure for Baghdad's failure to spend the money on projects considered vital to restoring stability in the country.

Out of $10 billion budgeted for capital projects in 2007, only 4.4 percent had been spent by August, according to official Iraqi figures reported this month by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). The report cited unofficial figures saying about 24 percent had been spent.

Meanwhile, some $6 billion to $7 billion from last year's budget is "being rolled over" and invested in U.S. treasuries, said Yahia Said, director of Iraq Revenue Watch, part of the private watchdog group Revenue Watch Institute.

"The government is broken," said Mr. Said, speaking by telephone from Baghdad. "The country's midlevel bureaucracy has either fled the country or been purged in de-Ba'athification, [and] a lot of ministers are politically appointed and not professional."

The result is that orders go out from the ministers in Baghdad, but there is no structure or staff at the middle level to carry out the instructions.

"It's like they lost the manual for driving the government," said Mr. Said, who is working to put that blueprint back together. "They lost the landing instructions for landing the airplane."

A quarterly report to be released today by Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the U.S. special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, says rising production and high prices could produce a revenue windfall for Iraq this year, according to the Associated Press. END

Jock ,

Then article from the resource investor compares the value of holding gold if one had purchased once at the peak in 1980 and then sold it 28 years later. The chart clearly shows that in inflation adjusted terms this would have been a poor investment. However when you look at the chart it appears that even adjusted for inflation today's POG is higher than the majority of points on the chart.If one had used a dollar cost averaging approach say by purchasing 1 oz. of gold per month throughout the period of the chart I would venture to guess that one would have beaten the inflation problem at today's current gold price. It would be interesting to able to do the calculation. Anyone?

ALOHA !!

Jock ... That's why I am staying in gold and silver companies, mainly gold. I am only working on Australian gold juniors and miners. Australia is a wealth of all metals and especially iron ore and many of the base metals, but I believe "real money" will be the most demanded metal in the future with a World overwhelmed by mindless BIG spending governments and stock markets overrun with paper shuffling elite fraudulent bankers.

I met up with my brother in Perth, West Australia last week. He was just back from Dubai and Qatar where his interior architectural company(RYA Intl)has a few projects there. The rate of building there is phenomenal but you have to know someone to get in or have a World Class reputation. All the sheiks are trying to out do each other by building ever taller buildings and more oppulent surroundings. Oil money is flowing and so are sheiks egos!

Many people, especially Americans, think that leaders and top CEOs make expert decisions based on the best research available. I believe many decisions,especially political ones, are highly based on ego and selfishness. Are our leaders and bankers and corporate CEOs that much different from the rulers of Dubai or Qatar?

I believe in the US Constitution and the vision of our Founding Fathers or LESS government. They understood the effects of the human condition and the ego and corruption of power. Too bad the US Voters cannot grasp that principle and vote accordingly. Only one man would be elligible ... RON PAUL! Still no metion of Ron Paul here in Australia.

BillySundance

Long on U.TO and appreciate your heads-up.

All,

Now that I've finally gotten Typekey to work for me, let me thank you all for astute comment, useful info and guidance, and an occasional laugh.

Bill,
You know me as In It For My Children. I thank you once again.

A question for our experts or anyone that can help me out. I've had fun and made a few bucks trading the GLD and GDX for the past few years, but I'm ready to begin building a basket of Jr.s. I can't seem to get quotes or reseach from Schwab ( my main platform ) on many of the Canadian firms discussed here on the board. What's the best way to add some of these companies while trading in the States ?

Bill,

I bought a few shares of MPEL last November. I have seen various pictures of the Crown Macau Hotel Casino and they are impressive to say the least. Mr Lawrence HO is only 31 and is co-chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Thanks for taking the effort to keep us informed.

Jack

Whadyadoin...No idea on "best". I have an IB acct. Have to pay 13.50 per month to trade canadian stocks. Signed up this morning and paid for the month subscript in 1st trade
peace from north Puget Sound
Gray

the market closed up today on the jobs report?

talking heads may (eventually) give the january negative employment report the attention it deserves when looking back in a few months, and referring to it as the first of many in a row...

this is the first week i've had/heard multiple conversations at work with colleagues about what many believe will be a serious recession...one that could influence what our kids decide to study in college, whether/how soon they'll be able to afford to buy a house, (how soon we as parents will be able to retire), and the economic outlook in general for the next generation...whereas most of us were able to earn (adjusted) incomes equal to or greater than our own parents, i don't that will be true for Generation Y...

kudos to anyone who traded the upside today...but there's no way i'd be buying into this market for any kind of extended time horizon...

Another bank failed in KC last week.

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

With the new owner ponying up $50 mil for the bank...

"McDonald admitted that he knows little about the Kansas City area and has had to navigate with the help of a Global Positioning System device in his car.

“It’s a Garmin,” McDonald said, not yet knowing that Garmin Ltd. is based in Olathe

Looked at the TD article about 'buying what china needs, not produces'. And take issue with one of his conclusions. Sorry, has to do with importance of US consumer to global economy again, which we've alread beat pretty good around here on occasion:

"The death of the U.S. consumer has been shouted from the rooftops. The U.S. consumer is about 19% of worldwide consumption. According to Louis Gave, 85% of U.S. consumption is noncyclical and recurring, such as medicine, water, electricity, gasoline, groceries, housing, etc. Only 15% of U.S. consumption is volatile-cyclical, so that translates to approximately 2% of worldwide consumption! Is it really a big deal? "

Something about this analysis doesn't sit right with me. Firstly, I'd call the 15% discretionary consumption, not volatile-cyclical. After all fuel and food are also volatile-cyclical, but you don't have a choice but to buy. And fuel and food going up means less money for discretionary spending. True, the 85% wouldn't contract much, but it probably hasn't in the past either, but we still had global contagion.

So discretionary may only be 2% of worldwide TOTAL consumption, but shouldn't we consider how it fits into global discretionary consumption? Afterall, china and other export dependant countries aren't exporting water, electricity, housing, medicine and gasoline.

Hasn't it been the discretionary component that has been driving growth? Isn't the US the biggest consumer of discretionary components?

I dunno, but it seems to me that if times get tough enough, people could cut back on their discretionary purchases by up to 50% (if not more), so that's 1% of global GDP gone (on US consumers alone). You hear about british, spanish, aussie, canadian housing implosions as well, which is bound to hit their discretionary spending.

Shaving a just a few percent off the top of global discretionary spending is bound to hit manufacturing exporters the hardest. And it's hard to imagine it not trickling down from there.

Roubini has a much deeper analysis on this subject here:

http://tinyurl.com/34ofbx

whadayadoin - Canadian Juniors via Schwab

No real-time quotes for now, although schwab says they will have them in a few months.

You CAN buy juniors from schwab.com, but not from Streetsmart.com.

You can get symbols (usually) from their quotes ad research area. They normally have you key in a special symbol, which buys the stock in Toronto.

What they DON'T tell you is that they charge beyond the regular 9.95 commission 1 US cent per share for prices under 1.00, and 2 US cents for prices over 1.00.

Not a big deal on a Junior that costs 3.00 but amounts to a 6% load on a junior that costs 0.19.

write me at jock at billcara.com if you want more detail.

Thinking about my above post on the drive home and here's something else that occured to me:

China export $300 billion to US.
China probably exports a good chunk more to other countries that export to the US.
China surely exports a good chunk more to other western 'consuming' economies.

So say it about $500 billion of chinese exports are destined for discretionary consumption. Their GDP (per Wiki) is $3.4 trillion. So 15% of Chinese economy tied to discretionary spending?

Using other stats from wikipedia:
total exports: $1.2 trillion (35% of GDP)
primary exports ($US billions):
Office machines & data processing equipment (134.5)
Telecommunications equipment (123.6)
Electrical machinery (101.7)
Apparel & clothing (95.4)
Miscellaneous manufactures (55.5)

I dunno, but I don't see how a slowdown in the US and other credit driven western economies isn't going to impact China and the like for the worse.

marketwatch's Rex Nutting posted the kind of commentary i was expecting in response to january payrolls: ("Last pillar of denial is gone"):

http://tinyurl.com/2g26d4

unfortunately, the link to it is buried in the small print...while headlines (and radio sound-bites) prefer the take "Stocks post[ed] solid gains after struggling
for direction, as Microsoft's bid for Yahoo trump[ed] a bleak payrolls report..."

let's see how asia reacts to job losses in the US...

basket guy - Canadian juniors trading in US

I dont know of any comprehensive list, but frankly I dont know why you'd want that. When they do, volume in US (and therefore fills) are often lower than in Canada.

I'd look for the best juniors and then figure out how and where to buy them. I posted something earlier today on how to buy Canadian juniors in Canada via Schwab.

Often, the best juniors tend to list in Canada, then in Frankfurt, and seem not to mess with the US.

FWIW

Jock: re gold and inflation in the resource article. True, gold has not been a hedge if you average back to 1980, but that misses the point. Take a look at the last chart on this link

http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

You have to scroll to last chart on link, sorry -- titled stocks vs hard assets. You see very long term trends that favor stocks for an average 17 yrs and then favor hard assets - gold, oil, commodities for the next ~17 yrs. From 1980 to 1999 we accelerated from a peak of gold vs DOW near 1:1 price parity to the 1999 low, then turned the corner and have been in a commodity uptrend ever since. So if history is any guide gold/DOW, oil/DOW, CRB/DOW will continue for years to come, until we once again get close to parity between gold and DOW. Cycles are not perfect and are certainly influenced by external forces, but the underlying patterns are impressive. I think its fair to also label the 1980-1999 half-cycle as greed and the 1999-2015 (guess on the date) as greeds opposite, fear. I dismissed cycle theories in the past but I do see the potential of human greed/fear that provide the underlying energy for cyclic tendencies to exist, so on this basis I have come to reconsider them. For my money, since 1999, the trend favors gold over stocks, and nothing to do with inflation

JR Pauley - fascinating chart! -

Bill - Thanks for the cold hard truth on US broker dealers. We can't expect the SEC to crack down on them, because they're not cracking down on ANYTHING ... lol

_____________________________________________

Now for something completely different. What is all this commentary about the wonderful MSFT move?

MSFT+YHOO = LAME+lame?

MSFT has never really succeeded big-time in anything but DOS to Windows to dominance with “Office”.

Yahoo bet heavily on “media content” approach rather than (Google’s) “breakthrough web services” approach, and YHOO lost.

I don’t see how putting the two together really helps either. Sure, MSFT buys “customers” – who don’t PAY anything, btw. And I don’t think MSFT or YHOO has cracked the code on today’s web advertising.

The essence of Google is not just search, but super-elegant, creative web-based services, some not even announced!

Try keying into the google search page “movies” and your zip code. The results come up SO well organized - by what movie is playing where - and displayed - click on the movie and up pop LOTS of reviews. I’ll never use AOL Moviefone again.

And there’s Google news, Google finance – the best way to get a quick read on a stock – Google maps on a cellphone (dynamite). Last night I was searching a topic, and up came a page from a “google book” (remember their scanning of major world libraries?)

Not to mention their ability to provide services globally on a super efficient basis from server farms around the world.

But, none of that's the the essence of Google either! It's all that information they collect about me and you. (As we “use THEM", they are actually “using US”.)

An update on the "free TV" model. We THINK we're the "customers" of the TV networks, but we're really the PRODUCT, sold to the real customers - the advertisers. Well, Google can slice and dice its product in ways TV never dreamed of.

With the years, they’ll figure out LOTS of ways to monetize the information they have collect about who we are and what we do with our money, our free time, our work, .... our lives.

And I can’t see how lumbering MSFT plus failing YHOO = anything more than lame no. 2 without a clue ! -

FWIW

I agree, Jock.

Good analysis.

Regards

Bill,

Something to further consider on the challenges that HB&B have dropped on us:

Gold and Deflation: A Dissenting Dissection

http://www.goldensextant.com/Gold&Deflation.html

SEC:
In my job I have access to more information about big deals than 99% of people on the planet. But I can honestly say I've never crossed the line into data I shouldn't be wading. To the point that I've stared at right at files, etc., with my name on them, that dealt with me in ways I would probably want to know about, and never caved.

I know that when a person crosses an ethical line, it gets easier and easier, until they aren't just doing something 'bad,' they've become something bad. That's not where I want to go in life.

My point is: The SEC seems to show very little interest in stopping what, in THEIR OWN WORDS is 'rampant' insider trading. Just knowing that they are doing nothing certainly makes it just that little bit harder to stay on the straight and narrow. A little voice in my head HAS said "Hey, man, they don't care and aren't looking. They wouldn't even notice a few hundred shares, or a couple of options contracts. They'd never see a couple of option bets in other firms across the same sector as this big deal, and they often get a bounce when deal is announced. Hey, who's going to know?" (Of course, the answer to myself is "I'LL know, so STF up, stupid little crooked voice!")

I don't expect crooked broker-dealers to EVER get cleaned up. Sorry if that sounds cynical. Until we get rid of the ridiculous notion that people in this industry can be inherently trusted to do the right thing with billions of dollars of OPM and can therefore self-regulate themselves, nothing will change.

It seems like everyone in a position to do something about it is also in position, or angling to be in a position, to engage in the crookedness and get theirs. When I describe some outrageous unethical behaviors in capital markets to friends, co-workers and/or family, the answer is either "Hey, if that guy runs a fund or a company, he's supposed to do whatever it takes to make money for the investors." (I swear, that was an actual argument I had. I gave up, exasperated and very disapointed in the person with whom I was speaking.) Or I get a "Everyone does it" said in a tone that makes it sound like it's OK.

It seems so fruitless to fight something so endemic and so seemingly accepted. "The man's too big, the man's too strong."

=

"I have legalized robbery, called it belief
I have run with the money, I have hid like a thief
Re-written history with armies and my crooks
Invented memories, I did burn all the books

Oh father please help me
For I have done wrong
The man's too big
The man's too strong"

MikeNYC - You're making LOTS of sense - esp.

quoting Mark Knopfler ! His new music is just as good. Do you know the Trawlerman's Song, Back to Tupelo, and his tune about Sonny Liston?

Maybe it takes a Brit to write those kinds of songs about America !

Great calls lately with the RSIApp on AHR and SNDK.

AHR +30% in a week
SND +10% in two days

Although AHR is still a buy at this price.

Bill and Korvus thanks alot. I am finally getting what you are talking about, even though now it is a tough market to be trader.

What is everyones thoughts on GS lately. I got in it at 198 although the RSIApp didn't trigger a buy alert.

I am just getting into this trading stuff, what would be the technical levels for break-out? What about bottoms? Or is the market just to crazy right now for technicals on GS?

As for another observation....

It seems the posters on this board are getting to where I was about 2 months ago with the doom and gloom, especially the forwarded post by Bill today about the "Bank" situation with HB&B.

In the end we all die and we can't take any money with us. So, put in a hard days work, say your prayers and have faith. We are not in control, but must keep on keepin' on. If not, then what are we here for.

Everyone, relax. If the s$&@ hits the proverbial fan, pretty much all of us will be in the same boat. Just be glad you live in the US and there are people still around that survived the great depression, we might have to learn something else from them, becuase if this happens we certainly didn't learn how to stay out of that kind of mess.

Anyway, everyone keep your head up and be positive.

Scratchy - you might be right with your thoughts but wouldn't it be nice to be in a big mother of a boat as opposed to small dinghy!?

ALOHA !!

Okay ... What's valuable in the World today? What has true value? Does searching on Google have great value? I would say YES, but can I live without it? I would also answer YES! Do I need the latest Blackberry or IPod every year? I would answer NO! Do I need a camera that takes photos? NO! Do I need a wireless phone to survive? NO! Do I need a microwave to survive? NO! The fact is we are now addicted to "convenience" and we buy these products in the belief that we will save time and feel better about ourselves because we have high tech status. I own a new Dell Inspiron 1521 laptop that I bought before I went on this Aussie trip. The last laptop I owned that was still working and I used was a Compaq I bought back in 1997. I still use a Sharp Wizard to keep important phone numbers and addresses. I have a Palm Pilot from 2001 that I have never opened and is still in the box. I have never owned an IPod. I own no Blackberry. We use a TrakPhone from WalMart and it has no camera. We use dial-up for our business and home computer internet connection. Its slow but we have adapted. We have no TV or even cable. We have no home theatre and in fact last year went out to see only three movies(two of them were with my visiting nephews). Even when we lived in the San Francisco Bay Area for 20 years I only saw one pro baseball game and one pro basketball game. In other words we are a complete NIGHTMARE to the US GDP Consumer Nation. We now live in Hawaii and grow a lot of our own food. We still buy the majority of our food from various Farmers Markets and Malama, but we have extra resolve to go off the food grid and every other grid we are on. We definitely never need to buy water and the air is some of the cleanest on Earth in Hawaii, especially in the jungles of the Big Island. Our best vehicle is a 2002 Mazda MPV van with 62,000 miles on it. We have a 2003 Massey Fergussen 23hp tractor and a 2007 Kawasaki Mule and own two 2006 Honda Ruckus scooters we use for business. By most people's standards we are backwards and without status of any kind except we live in Hawaii! So what? Well, to be honest ... Being a grand consumer in the hopes of having status is a worthless pursuit. When you're laying on your death bed the last thing you will say is, "I sure am glad I bought that IPod back in 2007!" WE HAVE ALL BEEN CONNED! The AMERICAN DREAM has gone awry ... The AMERICAN DREAM went wrong when it was founded on "credit". I see it happening here in Australia now. It's an exact copy of our "dream"!

Let me get back to "value" ... The most valued things in the World today are the same things that were valued ever since caveman days. Food, water, warmth and shelter. We have lost sight of that ... In a World of worthless paper this is the truth ... this is where the real value is. Many in the Third World know this all too well ... we Americans do not! I dare say the Aussies and Europeans and other "paper wealthy" Nations do not either.

What's the truth? Here it is from James Turk and historically speaking it is a return to real wealth and real "value"! In this article there is mention of the CRB Continuing Commodity Index since the "weighting" of the CRB was changed in 2005. Remember "weighting"? That's the hallmark of fiat indexes ... they're always changing on a whim! Where is stability? Gold prices are rising against all currencies. The truth is trying to speak to you. The signs are there if you know where to look.

READ ON:
The Flight From The Dollar
James Turk
Feb 1, 2008

It is clear that the flight out of the dollar continues. But are commodities still a safe haven?

In my view, the answer is a resounding yes. First, commodities are a tangible asset and therefore do not have counterparty risk. A pound of copper, bushel of wheat or ounce of gold is not dependent upon any bank's or government's promise. The value of a commodity arises from its usefulness, for example, copper in wiring, wheat in bread and gold as money. The absence of counterparty risk makes commodities an increasingly valuable form of wealth today because so many of the promises underlying financial assets are becoming unreliable. But commodities are still a safe haven for another reason.

Despite the big increase in prices in recent years, commodities are still undervalued because much of the price increase results from inflation. I use a number of models to determine relative value, but here's a simple one.

Let's start with the November 2003 prices. One ounce of gold could buy the CRB Index 1.5-times ($383.30/251.03). At yesterday's closing prices, one ounce of gold bought the CRB Index 1.8-times ($922.70/503.27), so clearly relative valuations have changed. But at the January 1980 peak, one ounce of gold bought the CRB Index nearly three times, and we are still far away from that level of relative valuation, which is one signal that gold prices have much further to rise. The following chart is also pointing to that same outcome.END

The US Banks are in trouble and so are the markets they command. As the trouble deepens expect more corruption and less SEC until the system breaks down. The US Bank version of the FDIC will become selective and then obsolete ... That's when "confidence" is non-existant globally. Europe and the Euro are in trouble underneathe the veil of higher rates that won't last much longer. If the German's could remove themselves from the EU and go back to the German Mark I believe they would do so in an instant. In all great monetary schemes there are always those who are responsible carrying those who are not. The USA is no longer responsible and its banks are no longer credible. This will lead to global credibility of paper currencies and the banks that back them. We as a global community need to return to sanity and true wealth and what is most valuable. There is an endless list of what has no real long lasting value and a very short list of what is. You know what "is" as well as I do. Invest in long term VALUE and don't get yourself caught in the game of "leverage" and "debt" ...

Time to get REAL!!!

Kaimu
Nice post, agree with you as to what really matters are the simple things. As for gold and CRB there is a strong historical correlation going back to at least 1900 that I pointed out in my last post from this link

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/dow_gold_oil_crb1900-current_rev.png

Not 100% correlation, but they trend in the same direction, for sure

Dear Mr. Google: You have some truly innovative ideas to conquer the world, but many of your plans scare the crap out of me. All this background surveillance you do to me, every web site I visit is constantly being tracked for targeted ads, my gmail is sniffed for patterns as well. In the interest of privacy -- a truely heretical, anti capitalistic concept for which you will have to pardon me -- I have decided to fight back and develope my own browser plug-in for self defense. My software will (in the background, quietly), make constant low level searches for things at random, occasionally doing background click-throughs on ads it encounters as well, all with the purpose to mask your evil attempts to discern any patterns out of my real search attempts. Up until now I routinely performed this "masking" manually while I browse anyway. I force myself to ignore ads that really interest me, choosing instead to randomly click on irrelevant links, just to see how it affects the future ad-links I encounter, a fun little game. Anyway, this privacy masking that I have been doing manually I have decided to automate as I really do not like big brother, and wish to fight back. I also will develope additional software to send anonymous, random emails back and forth from fictitious gmail accts to my real gmail acct. to mask my email traffic patterns as well. In short I will invalidate your entire business model. The more I think about this idea the more I favor it, strictly on privacy protection grounds. You Mr. Google won't like this, but in the interest of my privacy I think you will not beat me in court. I will give away this technology to all internet users and it will quietly go to work in their background to anonymize their internet usage as well. Then again I probably will not have to give away my software for free at all. I might even sell this concept to YHOO, or MSFT. Who knows, you yourself Mr. Google might even be the high bidder. Excuse me now, Mr. Google. I have to go see Mr. Wall Street and see if I can raise any VC money to fund this idea.

... rant off, sorry, but am serious at the same time

Im new to the site and quickly realize that I need serious education to participate. Can anyone put me on the right track for a technical education. I can not find the area on this site for the basics or maybe I am need a more basic education to start with any direction will help. Thanks

basketguy at February 1, 2008 2:04 PM
and g304

Yes the commercials short pos have fallen for 3 weeks now,here is an interactive cot chart(click on a bar for the # of positions.You can go back in yrs if you like as well.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/cotcharts/GC

Thanks Bill, for that 10:19 on Jr golds.

David,
Don't know if you made it back here for an answer, but check the links at the top of the page. Most everything is explained there.
It will take some time to read all of the topics or those that apply to you but it is well worth it as is reviewing now and then.
If you need more info please ask, the listers and Bill are here to help.