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February 1, 2008
Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Feb. 1, 2008, 7:22am ET
Who was it that said there’s no such thing as a crystal ball?
Here is more proof of concept?
Reuters headline today: European shares extended gains by midday on Friday after news of Microsoft's (MSFT) proposal to acquire Yahoo (YHOO) in a $44.6 billion cash and stock deal.
That was preceded by my remark in Wednesday morning's Discourse:
Is anybody else getting the feeling that this negative Yahoo story is overdone, and is probably HB&B loosening up the YHOO Bulls in order to buy in large blocks of stock to turn over to Microsoft? Can't we all see that the next five years at least is going to be a business war between Softie and Google? Posted by: Bill Cara at January 30, 2008 10:44 AM
Rock on Wall Street. Today will be a big one in the market. Some day there will even be a fair market.
That day will come when integrity returns to the SEC, if ever.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on February 1, 2008 07:22:52 AM | Category: Community Chat
Discourse
The timing was surprising.
I bought 3000 contracts of
the 22.50 YHOO FEB calls at .12c
[in my dreams]
Posted by: stockershock ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
February 1, 2008 7:27 AM [link]
Uranium - part 2. No sooner did I post that rumor about China wanting to buy an AUS copper miner than I see todays story that Chalco & Alcoa buy a $14B stake. Now if you buy into the rumor it was as much about RTPs little known Uranium reserves as anything else. I had been watching RTP's volumn hoping to see a glimpse of a deal in the making, but alas ..
Posted by: JRPauley at
February 1, 2008 7:41 AM [link]
YAHOO up more than 10pts in before market trading.
Craig... some news to wake up to uh?
Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at
February 1, 2008 7:50 AM [link]
This is a very tricky market. You can not lean too much on any one side. However, Bill, remember, if you are patient, it will come to you. You said that.
Now everyone check out what I say about Rick Rubin,Julian Roberts and the markets today..
http://wallastoninvestments.com/first-rally-day-since-first-capitulation-day-julian-roberts-and-rick-rubin-on-the-economy
Posted by: Rob Wallaston at
February 1, 2008 7:59 AM [link]
LOL, so much for the nibblets of QID I bought at the close yesterday! Good thing I decided on a tight stop.
Although looking at it now, the bid/ask have stabilized PM, so I am wondering if the GOOG sell off will outweigh the YHOO uptick....on the broader QQQQ's
Posted by: reenzo at
February 1, 2008 8:00 AM [link]
Oh yeah, just perfect.....
Do not follow me!!!!!
In my impatience I sold YHOO and of course went long QID for GOOG.....
So I'm down on QID and missed a huge move in YHOO. Sheer genius.
I see the response ends up correct for GOOG (down this AM) but I clearly have no crystal ball and I am dumb enough to not listen to the guy that does.
Jobs report may take some energy out of this push but you know how the street loves to run on this kind of news.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 8:02 AM [link]
Here's an article from the New York Times explaining why we may be paying more in the near future for things from China.
Excerpt: " 'Companies are now ordering for the spring of 2009,” ' says Nate Herman, director of international trade at the American Apparel and Footwear Association, based in Arlington, Va., that represents some big clothing and footwear makers. “Factories are coming back and asking for 20, 30, 40, 50 percent price increases.” '
The article gives some mention but not much to the additional impact of the Yuan rise. You know, it really steams me how Paulson and some of our senators have been pushing China to let the Yuan rise, but did you EVER hear them say how this would lead to higher prices in the U.S.? I didn't.
Posted by: Denny at
February 1, 2008 8:03 AM [link]
Bill has taken me to task for being long on CCJ when the trend is against, and he is right. My biggest problem is being antedelluvian and a Buffett-ista. I need to learn that trading trumps fundamentals. I'm trying, really. This week I turn 50 so I will need to fast-track my education. Please don't cancel my "membership" just yet ...
Posted by: JRPauley at
February 1, 2008 8:17 AM [link]
Happy Birthday JR, I'm 5300 years old today.
I hope you get a better trade for your B'day than I did!
Now to go check the buy alerts on the Cara 100....
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 8:20 AM [link]
craig- the measure of a trader is how you handle trades that go against you->suspect you'll do fine...
finally have a tradeable open...positions->40% of normal allocation in QID, 20% in SKF...adding a little QID pre-market around 47, o/w will be trying to time a short-squeeze to complete positions...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 8:24 AM [link]
This probably isn't the right day to admit I sold YHOO yesterday for a small profit.
CRRRR...RAP
Posted by: bigwad at
February 1, 2008 8:27 AM [link]
KRY: hate to bring this up but ..
== The stock is beaten down by more than 50%
== why syndicated underwriters invest Cd $60 million ? it is a lot of money, are they crazy?
yahoo scenario?
long KRY
Posted by: jk484 at
February 1, 2008 8:33 AM [link]
adding a little more QID on payrolls report...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 8:36 AM [link]
YHOO - I bought 1 FEB $20 call earlier this week for $.55. WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: BillySundance at
February 1, 2008 8:37 AM [link]
Congrats Billy - now don't pile pressure on yourself wondering why you didn't buy 100 ;)
Posted by: jacksoo at
February 1, 2008 8:41 AM [link]
Isn't this a very bad deal for MSFT? Yahoo has some great products (my.yahoo It is my home page) but my impressions is that they are no match for Google in terms of profitability and potential growth. I see Yahoo declining not growing.
Bad job reports out, futures took a dive.
Posted by: SiO2 at
February 1, 2008 8:41 AM [link]
personally, don't see how/why YHOO bid changes anything market-wise...and certainly does not trump the drop in payrolls...completing a position in QID...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 8:45 AM [link]
I think the job numbers will win the momentum war. I'll use any push to add to short positions.
Colin Twiggs call for a sharp reversal is very interesting. I know some here refer to TA as Pseudo-science, but just look at the results and how it plays out.
I'll accept my defeat on YHOO but I still think the trend is down with jobs.
Added to QID as well.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 8:46 AM [link]
Exactly 2nd. My plan was to wait and go heavily short later in the AM, but the job reports threw that up in the air.
Posted by: SiO2 at
February 1, 2008 8:47 AM [link]
FXP- scaling into a position at 94.61...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 8:47 AM [link]
Hi Craig - where did you get the Colin Twiggs info from?
Posted by: jacksoo at
February 1, 2008 8:55 AM [link]
You're reading my mind 2nd....
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 8:55 AM [link]
colin twiggs:
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 8:57 AM [link]
Hi Jaketh,
From last nights trading diary.
http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r
You can sign up to have it sent to your email for free.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 8:59 AM [link]
Aussie and others:
Thanks for the posts last night about GIX and other juniors.
Following up on the query and comments about Eastmain Resources (ER.TO) and the Goldcorp connection…
GG bought in last spring and owns about 9.5% of the shares – also, some warrants, if exercised, raising the stake to 12% +.
Also, of note, is considerable institutional support, including Dundee Precious Metals, Sprott Asset Management (I was told that Sprott has participated in most financings),Anglo Pacific Group(recall, Aussie, these guys are big supporters also of Firestone Ventures -10%+), other European institutions, at least 5 Quebec institutions – at least 22 in all.
Also, there has been unflagging insider support – annual flow through share issues taken up by staff/insiders; CEO Don Robinson, who bought another 100,000 in the market in December, owns about 1.5million shares , some derived from exercise of options, NONE OF WHICH HE”S EVER SOLD.
And, ER has requisite cash for their 2008 program…
As you know, Grandich promotes ER; but, as far as I know, there has not hitherto been analyst coverage, until a few weeks ago…Genuity Capital… recommending…
I own some shares in ER.
Posted by: joey at
February 1, 2008 9:00 AM [link]
Greetings from the ice covered Amish countryside.
Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:
Upgrades:
BMY - to Outperform @ Cowen & Co.
DIS - to Outperform @ Oppenheimer
ERTS - to Buy @ Broadpoint Capital
GRMN - to Buy @ Needham & Co.
GSK - to Neutral @ HSBC
Downgrade:
GOOG - to Hold @ Jefferies & Co.
Target Price Lowered:
BC - $23 to $22 @ RBC
ERTS - $66 to $58 @ Lazard Capital
GOOG - $725 to $675 @ Stifel Nicolaus
GOOG - $725 to $675 @ RBC
GOOG - $714 to $644 @ Lehman Bros
GOOG - $775 to $650 @ Citigroup
GOOG - $850 to $715 @ Oppenheimer
Posted by: Bull Hunter at
February 1, 2008 9:00 AM [link]
MSFT v AAPL: Long time I have thunk AAPL a far superior co. If I had the patience I would arbitrage, long AAPL & short MSFT. MSFT is a very weak tech co, but a very good marketing and strategy co. Maybe it's my former 20 yrs as a software developer, but nothing MSFT does impresses me. Buying YHOO is just another example of their true lack of innovative potential
Posted by: JRPauley at
February 1, 2008 9:01 AM [link]
2nd,
check your email....
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 9:02 AM [link]
Thx Craig. Re FXP you see China falling?
Posted by: jacksoo at
February 1, 2008 9:02 AM [link]
Craig,,,,think that was supposed to go to my cousin Jacksoo....I know, all us jacks look alike...
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 9:03 AM [link]
interesting PM QID action on ARCA and CINN exchanges.
Both are active and bid/ask moving back and forth from about 47.88-47.92 / 47.92-48.02
adjusting stop on QID down to 47.50
Posted by: reenzo at
February 1, 2008 9:07 AM [link]
craig- behind a firewall this morning...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 9:10 AM [link]
Clearly I don't know Jack....LOL!
Again, follow me at your own peril!
I think we sell off today on jobs and China goes with it. Lots of noise though, they will beat this MSFT/YHOO drum until it breaks, and it will.
I see Jim Rogers is short MSFT. Looks like his morning is going right.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 9:13 AM [link]
Just a warning from BR that the jobs # will roil the market and overcome the YHOO noise.
Sent to both addy's so Mrs. 2nd likely has it.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 9:16 AM [link]
Craig, QID/GOOG shows just goes to show how even when you are right you are wrong in this market.
For me, now everything I touch turns to dreck in this market. Today I tallied up my performance in January -- until the last two weeks I was having a great month. And then three very bad trades wiped out the last 3 months worth of steady improvement.
It's that sort of thing that makes you sick to your stomach.
To add insult to injury, this morning I woke up to find that my tight stop on QID didn't get executed yesterday afternoon because I made a simple error on the order. When your stars are properly aligned, you benefit from such mistakes. Not me, though. And I'm wondering what god or goddess I have offended as I have 0 winners in the last two weeks.
Hence my moniker. And maybe it's time for me to give the market a rest for awhile as that may be what the gods require.
Posted by: I_Loser at
February 1, 2008 9:19 AM [link]
All:
$spx 1387 and $spx 1406 are are worthwhile watching for market turning points ...
:) Will we sell off into the close ...? Something else to watch....sentiment/marketdirection after we enter a congestion zone today...seems like we sold off thru fridays on january twoards the close, will it continue?
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 9:23 AM [link]
craig- thanks..'confirmation' of any kind helps...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 9:27 AM [link]
Bill,
I truly appreciate the effort you made to give me $5000 on the YHOO call. (500 shares).
For the record, I learned something. Again. When a stock is already hammered down, be patient and don't worry about further small losses because you already have the buy point. Writing it on my forehead with a sharpie.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 9:27 AM [link]
Spot Gold futures and S&P futures all over the place. Should be interesting day.
Posted by: BruceThomas at
February 1, 2008 9:29 AM [link]
SKF- opens in the green....
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 9:31 AM [link]
Simple. Watch FXY/FXF.
Both strong, we'll be weak.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 9:32 AM [link]
Silver a little ahead of gold in terms of percentage gain. Seasonality should take hold here, so a confirmation of this would be an advance of Silver against over Gold.
Posted by: FranSix at
February 1, 2008 9:33 AM [link]
I think we end down today. I think there's still too much fear of financials' holdings for Softie buying Yahoo to inspire many people to go long.
I think I read in the Hussman report or somewhere else yesterday that most market-timing hedge funds are on the sidelines because of the uncertainty.
Besides, I don't think Yahoo will help Softie beat Goog in the battle to take over the world. Goog has already killed Yahoo many times over and Softie is wasting their money in my opinion.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 9:41 AM [link]
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=40029
this is an interesting article...he has been pounding the table on "minor metals" for a long time...perhaps some juniors that focus on these, that have projects in politically stable areas, could be smart additions to the cara 100 juniors.
Posted by: rob d at
February 1, 2008 9:41 AM [link]
Pressure on FXF a little on FXY....gold holding but not advancing...where is Ben and Hank?
Anyone keeping an eye on the PPT?
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 9:41 AM [link]
What if Yahoo's board rejects the offer because they somehow think they can get their stock up on their own. Just wondering if Yahoo's share price would collapse then.
Posted by: SiO2 at
February 1, 2008 9:46 AM [link]
Here are the 8 banks joining to rescue ABK and MBI. You can bet these banks must have the most to lose if the bond insurers go belly-up
CNBC said the banks include Barclays Plc (LSE:BARC.L - News), BNP Paribas (Paris:BNPP.PA - News), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News), Allianz's (XETRA:ALVG.DE - News) Dresdner Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (LSE:RBS.L - News), Societe Generale (Paris:SOGN.PA - News), UBS AG (VTX:UBSN.VX - News) and Wachovia Corp
(NYSE:WB - News).
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 9:46 AM [link]
THANK YOU BILL CARA!!! I am a NEW ally willing to help. Looking to enter SKF at 91.50. Walmart prices on grocery up. Example .72 pasta on sale for .97. Sale? Yeah right. I have photographic memory, will post Walmart information regularly. Will find out if Walmart 30% price reduction is true tonight. Will answer any questions regarding Walmart or music industry. Lets go make some $$$$...
Posted by: ShredHulk at
February 1, 2008 9:47 AM [link]
bg- are you buying?
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 9:49 AM [link]
FXP- adding at 92.60...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 9:49 AM [link]
palladium at 400/oz. PAL ramping back up...any ideas why, other than the SA power outage? More importantly, how much more do the Russians have to dump on the market...
Posted by: rob d at
February 1, 2008 9:52 AM [link]
2nd...
I am already knee deep in way too many bullish positions...
I am looking to unload above 1400 in S&P Futures...
AND THEN GO SHORT SHORT SHORT...
I think this rally has a little more to SQUEEZE
Etrade was been beat up for a good reason,(subprime exposure/loss) but I think the company can start turning their loss around if given enough time. So far the equity has been under selling pressure, but the price has been inching it's way back up this week.
I'm buying now.
Posted by: bigwad at
February 1, 2008 9:59 AM [link]
Gee, glad to see no conflict of interest there
"Here are the 8 banks joining to rescue ABK and MBI. You can bet these banks must have the most to lose if the bond insurers go belly-up
CNBC said the banks include Barclays Plc (LSE:BARC.L - News), BNP Paribas (Paris:BNPP.PA - News), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News), Allianz's (XETRA:ALVG.DE - News) Dresdner Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (LSE:RBS.L - News), Societe Generale (Paris:SOGN.PA - News), UBS AG (VTX:UBSN.VX - News) and Wachovia Corp
(NYSE:WB - News)."
Posted by: cfsteak at
February 1, 2008 10:02 AM [link]
Sorry Guys We got 12" of SNOW here in Chicago...
I will be in and out most of the day...Gotta plow out my parents, inlaws...and anyone that waves me down as I pass...
Sorry I have a good heart...And a plow truck :^)
Watchin my SNDK...FLY FLY AWAY...
It is good to be here with all of you
Delayed quote on NOT.to shows 4.42.
Any current out there? TIA.
Agriculture moving up this a.m.
Posted by: Seamus at
February 1, 2008 10:06 AM [link]
breadth is 4:1 positive...and heading north...revisit short potential at resistance.....$SPX 1405 area.....
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 10:08 AM [link]
Check it out, cnbc has all these new etrade commercials showing 1000 new users a day, it seems like a way to sucker in new accounts before they go under. Anyone agree?
Posted by: ShredHulk at
February 1, 2008 10:08 AM [link]
man, is this some tough trading or what...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:10 AM [link]
QQQQs are flying with GOOG down 48?
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:12 AM [link]
Re: NOT $4.47 last trade
Posted by: FranSix at
February 1, 2008 10:13 AM [link]
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:11 AM EST
Last Price: 4.47 CAD
Market: CA
Change: +0.19
Last Traded: 01 Feb 2008 at 10:10 AM EST.
Tick: Stock/option has positive growth and is 'up'.
Bid / Size: 4.45 / 71
Ask / Size: 4.47 / 26
Open: 4.35
Previous Close: 4.28
Posted by: DancingWithBulls/Bears at
February 1, 2008 10:13 AM [link]
2nd ave: Trade with it...not against it...jobs number suck..market moving north ..so what? trade with the trend till it reverses..
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 10:13 AM [link]
FXP- adding part 3 at 91...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:14 AM [link]
For the second day in a row GOLD price is up and NEM is weak. I haven't checked any others but I have June 45 puts on NEM. It seems like one of the weaker majors if you watch it.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 10:17 AM [link]
EEM- wish i'd taken your advice about 30 minutes ago ;)
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:19 AM [link]
Is that right? GOLD at 910 right now? Where do you guys go for live gold prices?
And with the dollar down?
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 10:26 AM [link]
feel like i'm walking my positions up a sand dune and into the wind...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:26 AM [link]
feel like i'm walking my positions up a sand dune and into the wind...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:28 AM [link]
Denny,
Re: China
I have a contact in China that works for a manufacturer. Late last year the "owner" manager insisted he start billing the American accounts in Canadian dollars! He talked him out of it of course. Since then their exports have dropped slightly due to the price increases, but their domestic sales have increased! While the west is busy putting out the fires of their own making China is increasing domestic consumption and preparing for the time North Korea will be accepted in the world community. Guess who will be at the forefront of industrializing that nation and supplying China and the West with cheap goods? Just a thought... Cheers
Posted by: yaba at
February 1, 2008 10:29 AM [link]
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:29 AM EST
Last Price: 4.38 CAD
Posted by: DancingWithBulls/Bears at
February 1, 2008 10:32 AM [link]
Is that right? GOLD at 910 right now? Where do you guys go for live gold price.
Oh, I see the reason. The dollar bounced hard off 75 and is now at 75.35
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 10:32 AM [link]
wavesmash- HGD up 4%...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:32 AM [link]
2nd AVE:
MArket looks like stalling...never never trae the first 20-30 minutes...too much emotion and carry over from last nite...wait for the market to settle down..the 700 am catalyst to kick in then FOLLOW THE TREND...
Marke is stalling now as I type though...it looks like reversing..so you may redeem those QID FXP and be highly profitable. Time to revisit short fules..if this reversal holds
FORGET the PPT, FOCUS on PTTV- Price, Trend , Time, V0lume - sorry ...it pays to be dumb and play follow the leader ...
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 10:32 AM [link]
Figer Lakes:
Posted by: French_Canuck at
February 1, 2008 10:36 AM [link]
uh oh!!
Sorry softie DOW just went negative :):):)
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 10:36 AM [link]
Kaimu,
Regrading Australian miners: Do you have an opinion on Mcarthur Minerals (iron ore)?
$26 million marketcap and thinly traded. Thanks.
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 15, 2008) - Macarthur Minerals Limited (TSX VENTURE:MMS) today announced it has completed the second tranche of its C$2.8 million non-brokered private placement to help fund the Company's Lake Giles magnetite iron ore and base metals project in Western Australia.
Each unit is comprised of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant is exercisable into one common share at a price of C$2.00 per share and has a term of 18 months from date of issue.
First Apollo Capital Limited 1,000,000 units
Pinetree Capital Limited 500,000 units
Longview Strategies Inc. 500,000 units
Pinetree and Longview are each classified as an insider of the Company by virtue of holding greater than 10% of the Company's issued and outstanding shares upon completion of the financing. Current price is $1.58
http://tinyurl.com/37fdu7
Posted by: Fred at
February 1, 2008 10:37 AM [link]
Rob,
You can get live spot gold price from kitco
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Or follow the Gold ETF: GLD
if you have real-time quotes...
Tim
Posted by: TimG at
February 1, 2008 10:39 AM [link]
French_canuck,
Thanks!!
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 10:39 AM [link]
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:29 AM EST
Last Price: 4.38 CAD
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:30 AM EST
Last Price: 4.40 CAD
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:33 AM EST
Last Price: 4.43 CAD
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:34 AM EST
Last Price: 4.45 CAD
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:40 AM EST
Last Price: 4.40 CAD
NOT (CDN) as of 01 Feb 2008 at 10:37 AM EST
Last Price: 4.40 CAD
Posted by: DancingWithBulls/Bears at
February 1, 2008 10:41 AM [link]
Hi,
Volatility....
Posted by: maromatics at
February 1, 2008 10:42 AM [link]
marketwatch still has the YHOO bid headlined, and the jobs drop boxed off to the side...when that switches, we'll definitely be in negative territory...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:42 AM [link]
tailwind kicking in...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:47 AM [link]
Hi again,
The cliff dive this morning looks like someone is liquidating, because if is happening across several asset classes.
Can be just a portfolio, or something else, nobody knows.
Re gold: it appears not to be a tipical "supression" move, as the fall in prices is also happening in equities and other asset classes.
If this was a supression move, then gold wold fall, but not equities.
Finally, equities go on falling at this point, and the fall in gold seems to be contained for the time being.
Do not trade this emotionally.
Cheers,
Posted by: maromatics at
February 1, 2008 10:47 AM [link]
Bloomberg is saying that the loss in jobs in the US implies that the FED will be cutting again.
Another gold bullish fact.
This movement smells like distribution all over...
Posted by: maromatics at
February 1, 2008 10:52 AM [link]
tailwind kicking in...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:52 AM [link]
Close your shorts for now.
Posted by: maromatics at
February 1, 2008 10:54 AM [link]
maromatics- OK, taking 60% of QID off here..
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 10:58 AM [link]
2nd AVE: I put up the support resistance zones for the $SPX...you can see where FXI turned around at prior peaks on a 5 day..that will be a good short entry..
dont like to give advice on when to short or when to go long...no one can read the market..but you can see with your eyes in real time...:)
Always prefer to fish than to be fed...makes me more self reliant and no one to blame...:) personal philosophy..
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 11:00 AM [link]
Bought Juggernaut MSFT at 30.75 couldnt resist, looking to sell at 33. With Halo 4 and Bungie's Marathon games in the works/pipeline for xbox, couldnt resist.
Posted by: ShredHulk at
February 1, 2008 11:00 AM [link]
"Fed Announces Auctions Totaling $60 Billion in February to Combat Credit Crisis"
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve said Friday it will provide $60 billion in fresh cash to commercial banks in two auctions in February and will keep holding auctions every other week for as long as needed to ease the credit crisis."
As long as needed. This is one reason I have been hesitant to go short right away. It just seems like they are throwing everything at this they can.
Posted by: Denny at
February 1, 2008 11:02 AM [link]
I only need about ~$250m. CDN. for development cash.
Posted by: FranSix at
February 1, 2008 11:10 AM [link]
ONE HAS TO WONDER WHY...
Posted by: jacksoo at
February 1, 2008 11:10 AM [link]
denny
The Fed is throwing everything they can at the banks.
The stimulus package is nothing more then moratorium on taxes for the banks stupid gambling losses. They are just smart enough disguised the stimuli as a $300.00 welfare check to working person. In 2008, those working people will pay federal and state taxes on their free money. The banks will NOT!
Posted by: bigwad at
February 1, 2008 11:15 AM [link]
Not that I like to trade charts, but...
Anyone else see a nice inverse H&S forming in NORONT...NOT...
All we need now is a fall back to about the 3.75 level...Am I nuts?
Oh, boy...get ready the short positions...GWB is speaking on the economy soon.
Posted by: reenzo at
February 1, 2008 11:22 AM [link]
2nd,
I'm using a 5 min 1 day chart w/RSI/Stoch/macd/williams%r.
If I'm in the XLF or related, I use DJIA 5min/1day chart with same studies side by side.
These days the financials seem to be tightly correlated to the DJIA so I use to confirm before I move.
Used with EEM's resistance/support (where he is right we see the turns) it gives you a really nice look.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 11:23 AM [link]
Fed is definitely throwing what they can on the fire. I'ts a doozy of a blaze. I'm just surprised the bulls still want to party with the house burning down
Posted by: JRPauley at
February 1, 2008 11:25 AM [link]
2nd...
don't want to talk about HGD or YHOO... lol. I had both... plus I had USO @ $43 last year and was putting in stink bids (that didn't get hit) on POT at $86 before it split at $150+. Picked up some GLD at $58 a couple years ago... blah blah..
I am happy, don't care about this market and in cash.
Awaiting delivery of Bill's book.
I'll probably start testing some option strategies later this year, but for now things are too wierd... too much obvious manipulation, election year politics, and too many big dinosaurs stepping around squashing stuff.
MSFT's down 6%. I wonder how the 60,000 employees feel about the YHOO bailout?
"That's a lot to pay for flickr."
http://minimsft.blogspot.com/
I think they should have bought a bank instead... better value & synergy since MSFT is really just a bank anyway.
Yahoo Founder resigned yesterday too.
Semel had the chance to buy Google for a couple of billion... so I don't feel so bad now with my investment decisions.
Here's an interesting play for those who didn't Get Yahoo? yet. Buy Microsoft. (I had it at $24... dumped it at $31... will buy in again at $22 maybe)
"US Bank spending on Basel II-related risk management IT will increase by 30% over the next two years to exceed $1b in 2009, according to Aite Group."
Of course, this comes from a risk software company so take it with a grain of salt. Should be good for MS though.
This won't be...
Release the justice department hounds!
http://tinyurl.com/3clxzl
Holding tight onto my ultras. If they manage to rally it, I'll just ride it out. They can't keep this up forever. :-)
Posted by: Zenob at
February 1, 2008 11:28 AM [link]
Zenob - They don't have to keep it up forever; just until you can't stand it anymore.
Posted by: OldGoat at
February 1, 2008 11:32 AM [link]
question - if 125 bp cut can't get gold past recent high range (900-940), then is the good news already priced in? anyone thinking gold is going down for the time being?
Posted by: rob d at
February 1, 2008 11:34 AM [link]
All..while we wait for market to get out of this congestion zone..test this
Trend indicators:
whatever security you trade, have a fast trend indicator. I offer one here, as RSI seems popular, for those who wish to experiment, remember I watch mainly 3/10/30 min charts. Play with it
in the same indicator panel..set an RSI 5 and a RSI 45 set RSI 5 to green and the other red, watch the trend indication and the pullback to the trend, and then trend continuation...
test it...its an easy one to set to your strategy test or strategy alert if you use one...
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 11:35 AM [link]
While we wait for the market to resolve what seems like a congestion zone...here is something to experiement with to test if we are trading with the trend.
since RSI is popular,in the same panle..rsi (7-Green) and rsi (45 - red.)REmember I use 3/10/30 min charts..it works on daily..kinda slow.
Watch if its a good trend indicator for you, and a pullback within a trend..and when trend reverses.
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 11:39 AM [link]
I put in some stink bids on GLD and miners on sale. They will pound it down and it will be our chance. I'm torn between Bill's upper 700's call and CT's support in the 870's area (as I recall offhand).
SLW didn't come back as much as I thought but there were some decent chances at GFI today and I'm sure more to come.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 11:39 AM [link]
Great comment, OldGoat. Old, but wise.
Posted by: RDR at
February 1, 2008 11:39 AM [link]
"Thus I eventually discovered that it was all very well not to lose your bear position in a bear market, but that at all times the tape should be read to determine the propitiousness of the time for operating. If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight."
"...there is no profit in being wrong at any time."
-- Jesse Livermore
Posted by: OldGoat at
February 1, 2008 11:44 AM [link]
Anyone interested in uranium should take a look at the Uranium Participation fund - U.TO. It is a fund that has holdings in physical uranium inventories. The 5-day chart looks interesting, might be setting up for a nice pop later today.
Posted by: BillySundance at
February 1, 2008 11:50 AM [link]
Did anyone hear about the GCC?
It's a new commodity ETF that opened today.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 11:52 AM [link]
I've heard that some mutual funds/hedge funds can only enter a stock above the $5.00 and $10.00 mark. But can they enter on a stock hitting this price intraday or only if the stock closed at this price the previous day? Looking at ETFC, if funds can buy based on previous days close then looking to take small position if it appears that it will close above $5.
Posted by: Green arrow at
February 1, 2008 11:54 AM [link]
You know I'm no fan of GW, but it is amazing how he can turn a stoch signal south by talking.
I feel sorry for the SOB now. How will he and Cheney look in history? It's sad for all involved.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 11:54 AM [link]
This is the second day in a row where the Treasury Bond yields have gone down while the market goes up.
This means people are buying bonds the same time they're buying stocks??
Something is fishy here which makes me want to load up on more shorts!!
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 11:58 AM [link]
As always when Bush speaks there is a clever talking point post behind him. Today it was, " Boosting The Economy". Someone correct me, when you boost something doesn't also mean to steal it. How fitting.
Posted by: franvan at
February 1, 2008 12:07 PM [link]
$spx1385 - watch it..
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 12:07 PM [link]
EEM- great real time tutorial..
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
February 1, 2008 12:10 PM [link]
Re: GW
Forget about how posterity might view the Bush adminstration. I doubt if any of these people are truly held in high esteem by their peers, let alone historians.
Posted by: FranSix at
February 1, 2008 12:11 PM [link]
1385 goes down. Did you see how low the RS line was at 1385? right between 30 and 70.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 12:13 PM [link]
No idea whether this will happen...
but prepare for an equidstant move from the opening high..to the mid.range..and from the mid range...no idea up or down...but we will know when it breaks the range...either way
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 12:14 PM [link]
Getting tired watching these wild swings. Echoing Bill's commend yesterday about straddle, I will be looking into that on the weekend. Happy trading, everyone.
QUOTE - "Traders need to be in straddles because these moves are extreme.
Posted by: Bill Cara at January 31, 2008 4:04 PM"
Posted by: Dave at
February 1, 2008 12:14 PM [link]
LOL! A fund guy holding 145,000 shares of YHOO is trying to whip the price to $35.
What are the chances of GOOG bidding just to F with Mr. Softy?
RSI/stoch/W%R/macd all turned south at 1383 or so. Right after the speech.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 12:15 PM [link]
GW in History: Lincoln, Truman, most generally unpopular presidents, thought to be headed to dustbin of history, turn out to be among most revered. Bill Clinton, revealed as oval office philanderer,formal liar, emerges as champion of his party. Only thing as unpredictable as tomorrow's history is this afternoon's market.
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 12:19 PM [link]
Any thoughts on using a strangle instead of a straddle?
Posted by: MikeNYC at
February 1, 2008 12:22 PM [link]
Did someone post a Genuity mining exploration report a few days ago. I couldn't find it via the search on the site and was wondering if it could be posted again.
Preparing for the PDAC.
Thanks - RS
Rob d - thanks for the heads up on minor metals juniors.
ANYONE interested in JUNIORS needs to read the "golden" posts from Aussie, Fred, and Kaimu of yesterday's discourse. Also Joey's recent posts. Reinforcement for the juniors that have been recent favorites within this community and much more.
One critical theme: regulatory risk, with Kaimu asking: why add regulatory risk on top of exploration and economic risk. Aussie asking whether Ecuador (Aurelian) will tip towards Venezuela or towards pragmatism.
These posts are "nuggets" right on the surface!
I don't agree.
The discussion is of Presidents, meaning leadership and administrative ability.
From most accounts all of the above named were good Presidents and administrators.
They all had personal foibles as did/do all Presidents.
Do we put BC in the same class as Nixon? Nixon was a good President, a bad man. Overthrow the government kind of bad, not BJ bad. GW is in the Nixon camp. Do I think BC was an idiot? No question. It doesnt rise however to the level of incompetence or level of alarm we should be at now. Adultery is in a different category and is a distraction from real BAD MEN. Kill people/overthrow government bad. We have every right to ask those questions and absolutly none about Mr. or Mrs. Clinton's private sex life.
Instead of lying about it he should have told the investigators it was none of their business.
I voted for Bill twice and would not vote for him or his wife now. That and $3 gets me a Starbucks coffee.
All I care about now is competence and honesty in *government*.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 12:33 PM [link]
green arrow
You mighty of already looked at insider trading on ETFC, but just incase you didn't click on the link below.
9 directors bought into the etrade hype wednesday.
Maybe they think there is hope, or may just be it is a smoke screen.
http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001015780&ticker=etfc
Posted by: bigwad at
February 1, 2008 12:36 PM [link]
re gold, on jan 22 I mentioned the ihs that was about to breakout with a po of close to 940, the low today has touched the neckline, we now have 2, 4 hr candles on top fwiw
Gld is testing the top rail from nov 2006 and has bounced a bit.
Euro action was crazy today wow!
Posted by: Tbar at
February 1, 2008 12:41 PM [link]
Forgive my correction, Jaketh, but the three presidents whom historians view as the best are (in order of preference): Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Washington; they are followed by Teddy Roosevelt and Truman.
Source link:
http://www.infoplease.com/spot/presrankings1.html
I was privileged to grow up under F.D.R. and to have him as my Commander-In-Chief during WWII. To say that I "revere" him would be an unforgivable understatement. He brought us through the worst times in the last 150 years, not by threatening or fear-mongering, but by pure Inspiration. Would that we might be privileged to again see such a giant of leadership...certainly not the midgets and dweebs of the past 50 years.
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 12:44 PM [link]
Correction: make that "last 40 years". Kennedy never had time to make his lasting presence felt, and Eisenhower would be my second choice for best of my lifetime.
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 12:48 PM [link]
And FDR had a mistress.
GREAT leader, but a man.
They just never asked.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 12:49 PM [link]
Q: How can the market go nowhere for hours after all the recent volatility?
With billions of dollars and millions of decisions, it seems strange
Posted by: stockershock at
February 1, 2008 12:52 PM [link]
So did Eisenhower.
Posted by: OldGoat at
February 1, 2008 12:52 PM [link]
RE: $SPX..keep an eye on the 30 min/ 10 move ave as support
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 12:55 PM [link]
I am behind the news curve today but is this 8 banks to the rescue of the monolines serious or is this SuperSIV all over? Fake HB&B news to crush shorts and buy time?
Other than MSFT buying Yahoo what else is news worthy?
thanks.
Posted by: geckojb at
February 1, 2008 12:58 PM [link]
So did Kennedy.
Posted by: bigwad at
February 1, 2008 12:59 PM [link]
It definitely seems like someone doesn't want this market to drop. Maybe they're trying to squeeze it up until after Super Tuesday?
Anyone got any play on ABK or MBI?
I'm seriously thinking about shorting ABK but with all the promises of bailouts I'm fearful. Maybe that's the best time to pounce though.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes at
February 1, 2008 12:59 PM [link]
I've followed and invested in Aurelian. No position now; the political risk is too concerning. Ecuador is working on a new mining law which may have an "excessive profits" tax. Who knows how they will define this. They are also considering setting up a state mining company. However, they have also indicated they want to mold their mining laws on Brazil's. Who knows what is going to happen and you can bet the small investor will be the last to know.
The news agencies have a habit of hyping every negative word on mining out of Ecuador which knocks the share price momentarily and then gets bought back up.
One junior to look at in my opinion is Exmin. They just started producing small scale at the Morris mine in Mexico and will be cash flow positive which they will use to further exploration on their other 12 properties.
Posted by: moab at
February 1, 2008 1:03 PM [link]
1:00 buy programs kicking in.
Posted by: OldGoat at
February 1, 2008 1:05 PM [link]
Bill,
Thanks for your confirmation of a positive long-term outlook for uranium this morning. I decided to make a re-entry into CCO this morning and am prepared to scale into it with any further decline in price. To comment on the use of new cash by Goldcorp, I can only say that I would pay serious money to have a peek at the flight log on their executive jet. If it has been to VZ recently I know where I would be putting my speculative money based on all that has been said here over the past two years. Be well!
Posted by: TerryC at
February 1, 2008 1:06 PM [link]
Thanks bigwad! I heard about the insider buying, didn't know if was over 350,000 shares at market value. Guess they plan on a nice bounce from super bowl ad. Add to that short covering, funds that can enter at $5, might be enough to push it to $10 where even bigger fund are allowed to enter. Will be buying more calls today. Hopefully on a dip between 2-3:30. Any one know if funds can buy when a stock reaches $5 during the day or only if a stock closed at that price the previous day?
Posted by: Green arrow at
February 1, 2008 1:07 PM [link]
So did GW Bush...
Craig,
Interesting that you've changed your mind about BC, but my point was only that contemporary popularity is not a good indicator of historical judgement. Historians haven't really begun to assess BC as a president, as all that depends mostly on 20-20 hindsight, and his administration may really just be in mid-term. He may very well rise long term above his indiscretions. As to whether he is a good and honest man, Hillary knows best about that. I have the feeling that sooner or later, she is going to tell us.
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 1:10 PM [link]
So did Bush senior?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-1268535,00.html
Basketguy: You still holding GLD south of $90?
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 1:14 PM [link]
Back at 1385.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 1:22 PM [link]
Craig, RE: GFI - given the volume, this must be some huge position being liquidated today. I just find it hard to believe that the power situation (which looks to be restored to 90%), plus the price target change could generate this much action. ANyone have any news?
Posted by: writersblock at
February 1, 2008 1:29 PM [link]
I would also doubt the the drop in the pog would do it, either.
Posted by: writersblock at
February 1, 2008 1:30 PM [link]
Writer,
"To comply with this instruction, and in the interest of safety, production at Gold Fields’ operations is being pulled back to the 80% power level."
..according to resource investor....maybe the extra 10% means something to somebody?
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 1:39 PM [link]
GFI, no news. Power back to 90%.
I notice we bounced off 1385/12690 again.
It's pretty cool to watch my stoch start to roll over and the W%R go with it.
Anyone entertaining buying GOOG or MSFT?
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 1:41 PM [link]
GS- Check that chart out...pointing to market direction?
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 1:43 PM [link]
EEMTRADER...
Todays strong leg down..knocked me out of a few positions...
I think there is more short term downside ahead after a nice run...I am targeting the 890.00 level for a possible bounce, but watching very close..
The $$$ seems to find A LOT of support around this 75 level, I have been looking for a spike down in the dollar and spike up in GOLD which has not happened yet...
GFI: the low is 13.28.
My truck and trailer are waiting....
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 1:44 PM [link]
EEM
GS looks just like Bear Stearns Chart.
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 1:45 PM [link]
Thanks, Jaketh, and Craig - RE: truck - me, too.
Posted by: writersblock at
February 1, 2008 1:46 PM [link]
Jaketh...GS broke a downtrendlie on dailies...look at difference in price movement today and on the dailies....that is some stock on gas
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 1:49 PM [link]
Craig,
just for clarity on GFI, order restoring to 90% was withdrawn, if that makes a difference.
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 1:51 PM [link]
BG: Ok..big move down for GLD ...curious..whaddup..my gurus in the currency world..agree with you ...more downside..lower before higher. Me know nothing about gold
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 1:51 PM [link]
Jaketh, it was again restored to 90% last night.
Posted by: writersblock at
February 1, 2008 1:57 PM [link]
I just go to my trusty news headlines from all sources and it tells me 90% in the last two stories.
Still down 10% which would acct for price.
With lower POG expected no surprises.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 2:00 PM [link]
Really? Okay ... it's a double reverse reversal, I guess.
Posted by: writersblock at
February 1, 2008 2:00 PM [link]
GS selling off
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 2:04 PM [link]
EEMTRADER...Re GOLD
Lots of things happening in the gold market..
Commercials are short WAY SHORT..They seem to be throwing the kitchen sink at getting the price down.
Dollar coming down to support area (Which I don't think will hold)
Weak hands getting scared after such a run up
Article in WSJ by GATA..??Re Gold
Some talk that CHINA is proping up dollar because they know their dollars will be worth wooden nickles soon...
I am turning out the news and still looking for a thrust to 1000...Always CHOPPY towards the top and bottom...
Craig -- RE GCC: Ashmead Pringle of GreenHaven Commodity Services was on FastMoney recently to discuss GCC. LINK = http://www.cnbc.com/id/22934551. [incl VIDEO] I think RJI is perhaps better.
Posted by: FozzieBear at
February 1, 2008 2:12 PM [link]
Fozziebear...
I love that...You would'nt happen to have a child under the age of 5?
My son is a Muppets junky...He is 2 1/2
Craig,
You're correct. . Yahoo lists reversal headline as most recent posting, but looks like an issue of international time versus u.s. time.
Price drop may have more to do with "Gold Fields Tgt cut to $18 from 20.5 by Natl. Bank." this morning before opening.
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 2:18 PM [link]
Anyone see MU in the last 2 weeks?
Up 10% today alone...
I know it was pulled as a Cara 100, but my god..
Disclosure (I sold some puts awhile back)
So I said on Jan 22/23, they wont let the market crash w the NY Giants in the SuperBowl, well...
What happens on Monday? hehe
Posted by: stockershock at
February 1, 2008 2:22 PM [link]
Looks like da boyz is makin' a run on Dow 12800 and SP 1400.
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 2:25 PM [link]
February 1, 2008: Vancouver, British Columbia: Continuum Resources Ltd (TSXV: CNU) announces that it has entered into a Letter of Intent (“LOI”) with Mr. Raul Diaz, Continuum’s former General Manager in Mexico, for the sale of Continuum’s 70% interest in the claims constituting the Natividad Mine (the “Natividad Property”), along with a further 100% of the surrounding Natividad properties wholly-owned by Continuum (collectively the “Surrounding Properties”). All of these properties will be vended into a private Mexican company (“Privco”) to be formed by Mr. Diaz. Disclosure: Long CNU.
http://tinyurl.com/2e7xz2
Posted by: Fred at
February 1, 2008 2:28 PM [link]
Someone check this out...
JCP has a neat little intraday flag/triangle at 48.32.
The downside support is 47.81
Carl Icahn is involved.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 2:34 PM [link]
Is Continuum's deal with Privco a good thing for Continuum?
Long CNU.V following the recent buy alert.
Posted by: SteveC at
February 1, 2008 2:34 PM [link]
There is a real dis-connect between QID and the $NDX. NDX is up .75%, and QID is down 3.14%.
Wo' hoppen?
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 2:35 PM [link]
ronbon: QId inverse of QQQQ not the composite
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 2:38 PM [link]
anybody know why TCK is up almost 9% today? They issued a comment on their reddog mine and lowered production estimates on Highland Valley copper production, so what gives?
Posted by: proudPapa at
February 1, 2008 2:40 PM [link]
Those of you playing a possible airline merger involving DAL-----now at 18 handle, up 7.55%.
Long Feb 17.5 DAL calls
Posted by: Seamus at
February 1, 2008 2:41 PM [link]
SteveC,
IMO, it's not good. They messed up bad with Natividad in terms of environmental stewardship.
Posted by: Fred at
February 1, 2008 2:42 PM [link]
The WSJ has reported that Carl Icahn has been amassing a stake in J.C.Penney Co. (NYSE: JCP). Unfortunately, the WSJ is citing "people familiar with the matter." Those people are not always clear and not always perfect, although we'd be under the opinion that the WSJ wouldn't have run this based solely on "people" if it hadn't gotten confirmation from unrelated sources that may know.
We don't know the size of the stake taken if this really occurred, although one noted that the holding may be on of the larger holdings. As J.C.Penney has a $10+ Billion market cap, there is a lot of stock that could be acquired.
We'll probably get to find out if this is real or if this isn't tonight, because Carl Icahn is scheduled to appear briefly on CNBC's FAST MONEY at 5:00 PM EST.
So far J.C.Penney shares are up a bit over 1% at $48.00, although the stock has traded as high as $49.14 today. The 52-week trading range is $33.27 to $87.18. While many retail stocks were punished hard, JCP shares are actually up so far in 2008.
CEO Ullman is one of Jim Cramer's favorite CEO's as well so we'd expect Cramer to be discussing this tonight on CNBC's MAD MONEY as this is a retail stock and within his current trends.
Jon C. Ogg
Posted by: Jaketh at
February 1, 2008 2:44 PM [link]
Sorry, EEM, but QID is inverse of Nasdaq 100. ($NDX)
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 2:45 PM [link]
I have been nervous about shorting this market (and will continue to be so as long as others continue to short) because I believe that the issues surrounding the credit market could be close to disasterous if not contained. Therefore, the current administration, including the Fed and Treasury will do anything in their power to curtail a disaster. What does that mean? Liquidity in various forms, some visible, some by the invisible hand of the Working Group (PPT) will be brought to the market. Simply look at who is running the Treasury and the Fed. Wall Street big wig and an economist who, up to now, must be viewed as politically driven by his actions. If the President knew the credit issues that were in place, what better replacement for Greenspan than an economist who had a firm belief that a "helicopter drop" of liquidity would stave off any negative issues that may occur. He has published papers on the subject, so there will not be any "convincing" to be done.
What does my view have to do with trading? IMO, the ability to squeeze equity shorts will be used at every opportunity. If the economy slows, and the equity market falls, where will future tax income be raised? This has to be on the administrations mind.
This is not to say that the PPT has the ability to push markets where they want, simply that they will be working overtime to try.
How does the typical trader with a longer term timeframe manage a diversified portfolio with that view? The same as always, with a few adjustments. Use buy and sell alerts in a more prudent manner. Buy less equities than normal and take profits on major moves, keeping your overall equity position underweighted. Sell/short equities in larger than normal trades. Buy gold at oversold levels. Stay consistent, keep risk levels low and don't let your emotions come to the forefront of decisions. Watching the tape is the best way to go. For the first time that I can recall, Bill has been mentioning straddles on a fairly consistent basis for making money in this type of market. He also mentions using buy alerts as places to sell - basically selling rallies. There is nothing wrong with closing out trades at small losses if you were wrong - you need to do this as always. I am rambling now (I'm under the weather, still), I guess I'll post it anyway.
Maybe the best action for most readers here is to wait for weekly and/or monthly buy/sell alerts or do nothing at all.
$spx cleared resistance level that eemtrader and I have been mentioning as well as the 38.2% fib. If it continues to run up, it will meet the 50% retracement with RSI 7 possibly over 70 at the time. Tough to rally at those levels.
$gold is rolling over on the RSI. If gold falls abruptly, the uptrend line and the November high may end up close to overlapping with the trendline forming first support on the way down.
Good luck to all. I am fighting a bug, so I feel a little "woozie" and may not be making alot of sense but I hope this helps anyway.
Posted by: g034 at
February 1, 2008 2:50 PM [link]
ronbon....the QQQQ is nasdaq 100...
see
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 2:51 PM [link]
Oh no!
Is this the Cramer contrarian indicator?
And FM too?
It was a Cara 100 buy alert a while back.
All that changes is the possible timeline if a whale gets involved.
Posted by: Craig at
February 1, 2008 2:55 PM [link]
Rob D, thanks for that. Everything Jack Lifton writes is exceptional. Another guy who is interesting is "Mark Anthony" from Seeking Alpha / http://stockology.blogspot.com/. He comes across a little like a nut case, except his analysis is deep and his calls are spot on over the long run.
Palladium is undervalued anyway, but is getting a bump as a Platinum substitute. However, the hydrogen economy = Palladium, because of its affinity to hydrogen. For instance, cold fusion uses palladium as the catalyst, and is a chemical process with nuclear outcomes, not the other way around. PAL is an exceptional buy still IMHO.
Posted by: WPeyton at
February 1, 2008 3:02 PM [link]
basket - maybe you should check the latest COT data on gold shorts. Last weeks report did not show a historically high NET short position in the Commercial category. This weeks report will give us a good view on how they reacted to the recent rally. Sure they are short, they always are, but not more than normal. We will soon find out.
Posted by: g034 at
February 1, 2008 3:07 PM [link]
EEM:
...and the benchmark index shown is the Nasdaq 100 Index, which is $NDX....or am I really turned around???? However it turns out, thanks for caring.
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 3:07 PM [link]
ronbon...if you want to watch price differentials...then watch QQQQ they match up as inverse..if you want to watch index they dont match ..just like the $spx and spy. Thought your question was why the QID price % dont match...they match the QQQQ..but bid n ask can change.
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 3:11 PM [link]
BasketGuy: No kids. Been a Muppet junkie since mid 1970s. As I've pointed-out to anyone who remarks about the big poster on the wall behind me right now, The Muppet Show was WRITTEN for adults. Most kids couldn't understand 75pct of the jokes.
Posted by: FozzieBear at
February 1, 2008 3:14 PM [link]
g034...Thanks, I know not a high number...I should have said a number that are WAY UNDER WATER...
I will be looking at the new data ...Thanks
g034 - thank you for your "rambling". I couldn't agree with you more. I'm sitting on ~70% cash, and my emotions (read: greed) are making for hairy trigger to buy the ultra shorts. But you are right - trade small lots, take profits on rallies. Buy another day if you missed anything, because the prices will always come to you.
Based on the last couple weeks of movements, I'm going to do some number crunching on straddle/strangles. There are also some good names to be picked up, so watch the RSI's of Cara 100.
Posted by: Dave at
February 1, 2008 3:14 PM [link]
Not to rain on anyone's parade, but there is no such thing as cold fusion yet. At best their are a few experiments with ambiguous results that may or may not be repeatable. I wouldn't factor in cold fusion to my investment strategies. More info here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion
Posted by: Zenob at
February 1, 2008 3:16 PM [link]
Thanks, EEM. They both correlate, but today the QQQQ is up .55% and QID is down 1.49%. Still a disconnect? or is there another explanation???
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 3:17 PM [link]
Sorry; QID down 1.39% and QQQQ up 1.22%. Much closer; thanks.
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 3:20 PM [link]
There seems to be an imbalance in the 44bil bid msft has offered for yhoo.
Exxon revenue for 2007 tops out at over 400bil....
What a joke this Iraq war has turned out to be. Is all the death worth all those $billions?
An Electro Magnetic Perpetual Motion engine may put a damper on those $billions.
Posted by: bigwad at
February 1, 2008 3:23 PM [link]
Another error (my specialty today): QID down 3.31%; QQQQ up 1.22%; and $NDX up .83%. Still a disconnect with QID from both.
Posted by: ronbon at
February 1, 2008 3:30 PM [link]
Out of FNC.V at 1.78. Will reenter on a significant pullback.
Posted by: Fred at
February 1, 2008 3:31 PM [link]
RON: I think the Profunds prospectus points to better correlation for EOD prices..during the day..market bids can be all over..the market makers gotta make their cut...try the EEV and FXP....they really take a chunk out...
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
February 1, 2008 3:33 PM [link]
Out of SLB....
Loaded up QID/FXP/SDS
Still holding RDS.A/SA/SLW
and of course the widow maker "UXG"
Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at
February 1, 2008 3:37 PM [link]
Adding to SKF.
IMHO, the world financial structure is a house of cards.
Posted by: Bull Hunter at
February 1, 2008 3:58 PM [link]
It is BH. BTW, if C is one of the banks on the rescue plan of ABK/MBI, where are they coming up with money for that?
Posted by: SiO2 at
February 1, 2008 4:05 PM [link]
IB wouldn't fill a last min purchase of 10 shares of SKF- oh yeah I'ma big spender- showed error msg saying I was showing day trade pattern. Anybody had that happen before?
Microsoft bids $44.6b for Yahoo.
Do you Yahoo?
http://tinyurl.com/3ytxmk
Posted by: wavesmash![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
February 1, 2008 7:25 AM [link]