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January 13, 2008
Week in Review #2 (2008-01-13)
Traders are concerned that the Bear is madly destroying wealth in US equity markets, but the same situation in occurring most everywhere in the world, save China and India, at least so far.
The Nikkei 225 and TOPIX are down -7.8 pct and -6.6 pct so far in 2008, which takes the important Japanese equity market back down to November 2005 – yes 2005 -- levels.
The Pound Sterling has just set a record low against the Euro, despite the much higher interest rates set by the Bank of England. Traders are calling it the European Dollar.
Confidence in the international domestic economies is down most everywhere, including once robust Ireland as well as other European markets like UK, Belgium, France and Spain. European retail sales are down, perhaps worse than the US.
While the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite were down this week by -1.5 pct and -2.6 pct respectively, there were losses of -5.2 pct in the Australian index, -4.4 pct in Singapore and South Korea, -2.4 pct in Hong Kong and -2.3 pct in the UK.
A consequence is that the Japanese Carry Trade is winding down. The Yen has lifted from 87.27 the day after Christmas to 91.82. As the topping out process advances in global equity prices over the past four or five months, there have been wild gyrations in the Yen trade – from 88.28 to 84.80, up to 92.77, down to 87.27 and now back to 91.82. Some traders are projecting a 98-100 level during the course of this Bear market in equities as investors are selling off equities and repaying loans made in Japan.
During the summer of 2007, with the Nikkei index trading at highs of about 18300, I opined that the Japanese equity market would be the first to collapse in a global Bear for the reason, I stated, that the Bank of Japan was keeping rates too low for too long and this was leading to increased debts as traders were taking out loans to invest abroad. The policy, I figured, was to depress the Yen in order to help Japanese exporters. I called that a dubious policy at best.
In any case, the slowing of the global economy, the liquidity crisis among the major banks and the need for Humungous Bank & Broker to obtain cash infusions is now a reality that is painfully obvious.
Although there may be pockets of Bull support, the resistance of the Bears will win the day, and equity prices will continue to seek lower levels.
The process of writing down assets and, without printing money excessively, rebuilding capital to once again lead to global economic expansion will take some time. Whether traders will decide to hang in and ride their portfolios slowly down from the top or perhaps sell off the riskier positions quickly, causing another October 1987 scenario, is still unknown.
Global Economics Review
US Economic Calendar for next week.
It is important to review the following reports this week on the US economy. On balance, this is not a healthy picture. It is in fact a worsening condition.
Econoday Report on US International Trade for November.
Econoday Report on US Import and Export Prices for December.
Econoday Report on US Pending Home Sales for November.
The economy is rapidly slowing and inflation surging in many countries of the world. The economic ills of the world are every bit as bad as the US.
Besides, except for the Shanghai Composite (+4.2 pct in 2008), the international stock market indexes have pulled back as far as the US markets.
Econoday International Report (Jan 11).
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.
“Jock” reports:
THIS WEEK closed with 2 GREEN industry and 23 RED, compared to last week’s 1 green, 23 Red. While ENERGY slipped from green to neutral, HEALTH services advanced from neutral to green. DRUGS moved all the way from RED to GREEN.
Among the Cara100, 14 were green, while 63 were red. This is a significant improvement over last week’s 8 to 83.
Ticker Name Score
-5wksScore
-4wksScore
-3wksScore
-2wksScore
-1wksScore
-0wksABB ABB Ltd. +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 ABV COMP DE BEBA AM ADS +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 +2 ABX Barrick Gold Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 +2 ADBE Adobe Systems Inc. +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 AET Aetna Inc. +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 +2 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 ATVI Activision Inc. +2 +2 +2 +2 +0 +0 BA Boeing Co. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 -2 BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 -2 BC Brunswick Corp. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 BDK Black & Decker Corp. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 BHP BHP Billiton Ltd. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. +2 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 CCJ Cameco Corp. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 CCL Carnival Corp. -2 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 CEO CNOOC Ltd. +0 +0 -2 -2 +0 +2 CHA China Telecom Corp. Ltd. +2 +0 -2 +0 -2 +2 CHL China Mobile Limited +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. +2 +2 +2 +2 -2 -2 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 -2 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. -2 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 CVX Chevron Corp. +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +0 DB Deutsche Bank AG +2 +2 -2 +0 -2 -2 DELL Dell Inc. -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 -2 DEO Diageo plc -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 DIS Walt Disney Co. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 DOW Dow Chemical Co. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 DNA Genentech Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +2 ECA EnCana Corp. +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 +0 ERJ EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. -2 +2 -2 +2 -2 -2 ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. -2 -2 +2 +2 -2 -2 EXC Exelon Corp. +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +2 GE General Electric Co. -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 -2 GFI Gold Fields Ltd. -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +2 GG Goldcorp Inc. +0 +0 -2 +0 +2 +2 GGB Gerdau S.A. +0 +0 +0 +2 +0 +2 GOL GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. +0 -2 -2 +0 -2 -2 GOOG Google Inc. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 GRMN Garmin Ltd. +2 -2 -2 +0 -2 -2 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 GSK Glaxosmithkline plc +2 +2 -2 -2 -2 +2 HBC HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS -2 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 HDB HDFC Bank Ltd. +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 +2 IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBN ICICI Bank Ltd. +0 +0 -2 +0 +0 +2 IMO Imperial Oil Ltd. -2 +0 +0 +2 +0 +0 INFY Infosys Technologies Ltd. +0 +0 +0 +2 -2 -2 INTC Intel Corp. +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 -2 JCP J. C. Penney Company, Inc +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 JNJ Johnson & Johnson +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 +2 KB Kookmin Bank -2 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 KO Coca-Cola Co. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 KSS Kohl's Corp. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. -2 +0 +2 +2 -2 -2 LLTC Linear Technology Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 MBT Mobile Telesystems OJSC +2 +0 +0 +2 +0 +0 MFC Manulife Financial Corporation -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 MICC Millicom International Cellular SA +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 NKE Nike Inc. +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 NOK Nokia Corp. +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 NTES Netease.com Inc. +2 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 NUE Nucor Corp. +2 +2 +0 +2 -2 -2 ORCL Oracle Corp. +2 +2 -2 +2 +2 -2 OXPS optionsXpress Holdings, Inc. +0 +2 +2 +2 +0 +0 PAYX Paychex Inc. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO +0 +2 +0 +2 +0 +0 PDA Perdigao S.A. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 +2 PG Procter & Gamble Co. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 PTR PetroChina Co. Ltd. +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 QCOM QUALCOMM Inc. -2 +2 -2 -2 -2 +0 RIO COMPANHIA VALE ADS +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 RIMM Research In Motion Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +2 -2 -2 RY Royal Bank of Canada -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 SBUX Starbucks Corp. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. +0 +0 -2 +2 +2 +0 SNDK SanDisk Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 STO StatoilHydro ASA +0 -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 SU Suncor Energy Inc. +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 +0 SWK Stanley Works -2 +0 -2 +0 -2 +0 TCK Teck Cominco Ltd. -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 TEF Telefonica SA +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 TGP Teekay LNG Partners LP. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +2 TGT Target Corp. +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 TM Toyota Motor Corp. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 TOT Total SA +2 +2 -2 +2 +2 +2 TS Tenaris SA -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 TT Trane Inc +2 +0 +2 +2 +2 +2 UBS UBS AG +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 +0 UTX United Technologies Corp. +2 +2 -2 +2 -2 -2 VCP Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A. +2 +0 -2 +0 -2 -2 VIP Vimpel-Communications +2 +2 +0 +2 +0 +0 WAG Walgreen Co. -2 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 WBK Westpac Banking Corp. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 WFMI Whole Foods Market Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 WHR Whirlpool Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. +2 +2 +2 +0 -2 +0 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 -2 YHOO Yahoo! Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 Summary: (+2/-2/other) 29/29/41 20/26/53 9/56/34 23/30/46 10/69/20 18/60/21 Net: (+2)-(-2) +0 -6 -47 -7 -59 -42 ÂAmong the major indices, only the CRB, Shanghai and Bombay were GREEN. All the major US stock indices are RED – the exact same reading as last week. (This week, I’m not able to provide the breakdown of index components, due to time commitments on the Junior Miners project.)
Also like last week, GOLD and SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.
BOTTOM LINE: Improvement was concentrated in two sectors: Drugs, and Health Services.
Jock
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA=12606, down from 13450 three weeks ago Friday. That’s a loss of -844 points in three weeks in 13 trading sessions. When I saw the initial reaction to the inflation and econ slowdown data, I said I wouldn’t sugar-coat it, and that I was expecting significant downside action.
“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, DJIA=13,895.63)
Two weeks and -760 Dow points ago, I wrote: “I do not think the US major market levels are sustainable. Inflation is too high and also on the rise, which is hurting buying power of consumers, which in turn is leading to lower corporate profits. I do not believe that money by decree of the US Administration and the European Union is any solution. It is merely putting off the day of reckoning for HB&B and providing a longer window for insiders of these distressed financial institutions to be selling their shares.”
This week, HB&B in the form of XLF was one of the US sectors that actually gained, but all of the gain (+0.62 pct) happened on Friday and it was relatively small.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Nasdaq=2440 down -234 points from a week ago Friday at 2674.
“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, Nasdaq=2701.5)
This week, the most damage was done by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small cap stocks, and the XLF was actually higher, which indicates that traders were mostly focused on the economy this week. But what I think may have been just as big a driver was the fact that the ECB and BoE did not drop rates on Thursday, which gave some hope to the Financial Bulls that maybe the liquidity crisis is over, and so there was some short covering in the Financials on Friday versus the continued sell-off in the Techs and Small Caps based on a continuing stream of negative economic reports.
I look at these Nasdaq stocks and see that while QCOM (+4.3 pct) was up, most were down, and some of the losses were severe. CTSH, RIMM, SNDK, ADBE, ADSK and INFY were all sold down over -5 pct W/W, and CTSH plunged -9.6 pct on Friday and -12.6 pct W/W. AAPL dropped -4.1 pct W/W and GOOG -2.9 pct.
That was quite a pullback after the Cara RSI-7 system generated a Sell Alert on GOOG 2007-12-11 at $699.20. GOOG is now trading at $638.25. Then again, the system generated a Buy Alert on Nortel and Bed Bath & Beyond right before NT and BBBY tanked in recent days.
This is a simplistic alert system. Work is being done to improve it in terms that most of you can still understand what the model is doing. I hate the Black Box thing unless of course I built it for my own use.
Traders need to be confident in any system they use, which means they must fully understand it and recognize its weaknesses and nuances.
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
This week the scoreboard reads 4 up and 6 down.
Presently there are just 2 of the Cara 100 in the Distribution Zone and 8 in the Accumulation Zone. In recent days, there have been six Sell Alerts and five Buy Alerts.
Barrick (ABX +51.20) has been in the Distribution Zone for seven days M-W-D RSI-7 at 76.03 : 77.55 : 80.47. To trigger a Sell Alert, ABX would need to fall below 70 on the Daily (for short-term traders) and the Weekly and Daily for Intermediate-term traders.
Goldcorp (GG/G), which is the ABX peer, btw gave a Sell Alert three days ago after just one day in the DZ (2008-01-09 at $37.15), but since then GG has gained +2.45 pct to close the week at $38.06.
ICICI Bank from India (IBN) is another in the Distribution Zone. The BSE 30 Sensex index has been on a tear recently, and IBN has been very strong. This is a well run bank that is attracting considerable foreign buying of its shares because it is a major player in the stable and rapidly growing economy of India.
If I recall correctly, the other Indian bank I follow (HDB) gave a Sell Alert in December.
A feature I hope to implement will be a table that tracks the gains and losses of this simple RSI-7 system.
The Daily Report tables can be helpful in other ways. For instance, by tracking the changes, you could see that SNDK ($28.58) is rather over-sold (M-W-D RSI-7 at 26.01 : 15.21 : 12.95). If you are monitoring the stock of a quality company whose RSI-7 on the Daily and maybe the Weekly drops to about 10, sometimes it’s best not to wait until the RSI-7 jumps back to a cross-over at 30, but to wait until the peer group appears headed for a rally – even a mini-rally – and then write puts and buy calls.
That approach btw is used by day traders, but is not recommended for others.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:
XLE Weekly data:
XLE Daily data:
The Energy sector ETF (XLE), in two weeks, has dropped from 80.31 to 75.61, a loss of -2.44 pct W/W. Also, West Texas Intermediate Crude ($WTIC) moved up from 96.00 to hit 100.09 just seven sessions ago before dropping down to a current 92.16.
Two weeks ago, the XOM closed at 95.00, and I opined that once again the market was giving you an opportunity to make money by selling it. XOM closed this week at 90.30.
I wrote, “A week ago, I wrote, “Isn’t the market terrific? It’s possibly giving you yet another chance to sell XOM at 94 or better. You’ll look back in six months and say thank you, Mr. Market.” You’ll be even happier selling at 95 for all the reasons I gave off the top.”
With Crude at 96, I added, “I have been saying that I think $WTIC is going lower and that in time will work itself down to about 75. In the interim, this is a day trader’s market, so you can expect hour to hour changes.” Now it’s at 92.16, and I still believe the price is in a down cycle.
The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is at 77.65, which continues to rise. The 50-day MA is now at 93.60, and rising, but I believe it will now start to fall.
“As I wrote a few weeks ago when the 200d-MA was down at 70) in a month or two, the 200-day MA will likely move up through 75, which is where I think the current price will eventually intersect it.”
Big Oil had a bad day Friday as the Japanese Carry Trade was in an unwind, evidenced by a sharply higher Yen. CNOOC of China (CEO -5.1 pct W/W and -2.3 pct on Friday), PetroBrazil (PBR +1.2 pct W/W but -2.5 pct on Friday) and Statoil (STO -5.9 pct W/W and -3.7 pct on Friday) were big losers on Friday.
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:
XLB Weekly data:
XLB Daily data:
XLB (Basic Materials) lost more ground, dropping -1.96 pct W/W, including -1.02 pct on Friday, closing the week at 39.98.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:
XLI Weekly data:
XLI Daily data:
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) lost more ground, down 3.66 pct W/W, which was the worst sector performer, to close at 36.37.
As I wrote five or six weeks ago, with XLI at 39.40, “the econ data is still coming through quite soft and this week the same thing is likely (which happened). So I wouldn’t go chasing the Industrials unless there is a definite reversal in the data.”
There were some major losers this week, and Friday was a very big sell-off day.
Boeing (BA -6.2 pct W/W and -2.2 pct on Friday) was a leader to the downside. Several weeks ago I warned that the fundamental and quant data could not look better for the company, which had been fully priced into the stock, which was then probably a good time to sell. BA is down -16.4 pct over the past quarter (13 weeks).
In the same time frame, CAT is down -16.9 pct, GE -15.5 pct, MMM -17.8 pct, and FDX -21.0 pct. These are serious losses in “blue chip” portfolios.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:
XLY Weekly data:
XLY Daily data:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) continues to ring up losses. XLY dropped -1.95 pct W/W and -2.45 pct on Friday. Friday was the day following Super Thursday the 10th that I had alerted you to.
I wrote in the previous WIR, “I think the focus ought to be on the US Retailers now. The January 10th reporting by the majority of them will indicate the results of the important December period as well as set the important guidance for 1Q08. I remain skeptical that the consumer can handle more spending with more challenging borrowing conditions and higher prices as the fuel pump.”
I can’t see US shoppers returning to the stores and malls until the gasoline price drops at the fuel pump. Right now, they are tapped out according to the credit card companies. American Express (AXP) just reported the humungous write-offs of bad debts this week and BAM!! The stock dropped -10.0 pct on Friday and -18.6 pct over four weeks.
You have been getting the message.
This week, Starbucks was grinding down the shorts after the Chairman returned to the CEO position. The stock rocketed up +9.3 pct W/W.
But, most of this sector was thrown out with the grinds, including EBAY and CCL (-5.2 pct), and WHR -2.8 pct. DIS also dropped -2.6 pct. Friday was a tough day for these stocks because the US news of huge imported inflation, growing international trade deficits and a drop in Pending Home Sales was not a positive for the average American, who is now going into a protective shell.
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:
XLP Weekly data:
XLP Daily data:
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLP (consumer staples) gained +0.53 pct to 28.27, but was down -1.91 pct in Friday’s sell-off.
Altria (MO +5.5 pct) was a winner this week due to a strong recommendation by the Goldman analyst. Wal-Mart (WMT +4.4 pct) managed a gain based on a not too shabby December sales performance.
But there were many losers, including big hits on Friday: DEO -4.4 pct W/W and -3.9 pct on Friday; PG -2.6 pct W/W and -3.2 pct on Friday; and WAG -1.7 pct W/W and -2.4 pct on Friday.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:
IYH Weekly data:
IYH Daily data:
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |