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January 6, 2008
Week in Review #01 (2008-01-06)
ABBREVIATED VERSION --
Consistency is the hallmark of any professional, which is certainly the case when it comes to portfolio management. Another is the ability to boil down all the ‘stuff’ of the market to its essence so that when conditions do change you can be early to recognize that decisions will have to be made.
There is a big difference between awareness and pulling the trigger on buy or sell trades. The best traders are ALWAYS aware, but SELDOM pull the trigger.
Having said that, I regret, as I have pointed out on occasion, that markets today, for several reasons, have become volatile in the extreme, which has forced us to trade much more frequently and with even less comfort than usual.
Traders are under continuous pressure from multiple sources to change their opinions on important matters so that they take action of some kind or other. To fall into this trap is a mistake. Once you have committed to a portfolio, the only thing that does matter is the reversal of price trends and cycles. Unless you are a day trader interested in scalping fractions, you need to be patient for the price motion to unfold to the point where a trend and cycle reversal does occur. Only then do you need to take action.
With that in mind, and a long-term reversal from Bull to Bear having occurred a couple months ago, I will repeat my position on markets.
Overall, my take on the market as ready to fall under the weight of inflation and a stagnating economy in North America, Europe and Japan is unchanged.
…America cannot go from $50 to $100 oil in a year and avoid a massive recession. Oil prices and pump prices must come down or else. In fact, the point I have been making is that the damage has already been done, and only by interventionist moves from the US Treasury Department and Federal Reserve Bank, causing a lower USD, has the equity and debt markets remained pumped. But, for how long before inflation creep starts to push bond prices down and yields higher and the weekly Treasury auctions have to become bigger, also pushing bond prices lower and yields higher.
Then the share buyback game is over too. Same for the private equity deals. And with higher yields, the housing market crisis will worsen as rolling over ARMs will force even greater numbers of homeowners out of their homes.
But as long as commodity prices remain high, the cost of gasoline at the fuel pump will keep consumers at home and away from the stores, which will then cause bankruptcies among the retailers and the mall owners, which in turn will further depress manufacturing and shipping.
The US economy is in a corner and XOM a good case study in how it works through the mess. Everybody wants theirs. Exxon needs higher prices for crude and also at the fuel pump. The retailers hate it, which is why I have been pointing you to study the retailers and consumer spending and new unemployment claims data.
As far as the bankers at Humungous Bank & Broker go, the ones with the credit derivatives problem, JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup, will have to resolve those issues. But that’s the tip of the iceberg. The ones with the dubious quality Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) on their books, like Citi and Merrill Lynch, among others, also have serious problems. Then there are the banks and near-banks that delved into the sub-prime lending business, like HSBC, and the banks, asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds that bought them and are still holding them marked to cost and not true value. Then there are the big bond players like Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns who will start taking a major hit to profits should the bond market tank.
In fact, the outlook for HB&B is not a rosy one. Foreign investors from the Middle East and Asia are laying in wait, and could end up owning the great money center banks of America and Europe before all the dust has settled.
That’s the state of the world as I see it at the close of 2007.
As to my outlook, which was summed up in the prior couple weeks, it remains unchanged: “The calamity in forex and precious metal markets will continue for several weeks and probably months before gold falls to probably 730, possibly as low as 650, and the $USD moves higher to at least 82, which will relieve some pressure on the US inflation front. At that point, I anticipate Crude Oil to be priced in the 75 range. During the liquidity crisis and tightening process, I anticipate the US equity markets to possibly fall back to 10 and 2, which is to say to 10,000 for the DJIA and 2000 for the Nasdaq Composite.”
This was another terrible week for the Bulls. This was a week where 30 of 30 Dow stocks were down (over five sessions) and 10 of the 10 industry sectors I follow were down over the past four. Five of the ten industry sectors have a Daily RSI-7 value under 30.
A week ago I advised not to be misled by the data that showed a five day week in a holiday week that only had four trading sessions. The previous Friday had been very strong, and it had been reported in the previous week’s totals, so I was saying that the actual week’s report was dismal although the data looked good:
“So, when you see Table 1 showing 5 sectors up and 5 down on the week, the “week” is 5 sessions, whereas THIS week had only four sessions and in that time 9 of 10 sectors were down. For the same reason, Table 14 shows that 23 Dow stocks were up and just 7 down, but in fact in the four days of trading this week there were just 9 of the 30 up and 21 down.”
That loss of -566 points in the DJIA, and the collapse in the Russell 2000 Small Caps, in the past eight sessions is leading some of you to opine that a recovery is due. We’ll soon see, but I doubt there will be much of a rally here. The broad picture is shaping up like mid-November when a rally attempt soon fizzled into another selling wave. But this one is different in that this is the third pull-back to the 12800 level, completing a head-and-shoulders pattern (more noticeable in the Nasdaq). If this support level fails, I believe the DJIA will fall quickly to the March-07 lows (about 12000). That actually is the first point where I think the Bulls will try to regroup.
But this is a Bear market in any case. That simply means that the primary trend is now down and each cycle will have lower lows and lower highs until the Bear is finished.
Global Economics Review
US Economic Calendar for next week.
It is important to review the following reports on the US economy. On balance, this is an unhealthy picture, which now indicates the US has fallen into recession.
Econoday Report on US Employment for December.
Econoday Report on US Non-Manufacturing Business Activity for December.
Econoday Report on US Manufacturing Business Activity for December.
The analysts at Econoday opined:
Recession is on people's lips after the jobs report showed only an 18,000 rise in December payrolls. Construction jobs were lost as were more jobs from the manufacturing sector which, in light of job losses and also Wednesday's dismal report from the ISM, may no longer be a support for the economy. The key support of the economy has been the jobs market, but the thin payroll gain, and a stinging 3 tenths jump in the unemployment rate to 5.0 percent, puts this too into question. Adding to policy maker troubles was a 0.4 percent jump in average hourly earnings, indicating that wages are rising as economic growth is slowing and as energy prices are climbing.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.
“Jock” reports:
THIS WEEK closed with 1 GREEN industry and 23 RED, compared to last week’s 9 green, 9 Red – bringing the net sector tally from NEUTRAL to -22 RED industries.
The net RED industry count was the same as at the November low. (At the August low, the count was -27.)
8 of the Cara100 were GREEN to 83 RED.
Ticker Name Score
-5wksScore
-4wksScore
-3wksScore
-2wksScore
-1wksScore
-0wksABB ABB Ltd. +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 ABV COMP DE BEBA AM ADS +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 ADBE Adobe Systems Inc. -2 +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 AET Aetna Inc. +2 +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 AMAT Applied Materials Inc. +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 ATVI Activision Inc. +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +0 BA Boeing Co. +0 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. -2 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. +0 +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 BC Brunswick Corp. +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 BDK Black & Decker Corp. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 BHP BHP Billiton Ltd. -2 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. +2 +2 +0 -2 -2 -2 CCJ Cameco Corp. -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 CCL Carnival Corp. -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 -2 CEO CNOOC Ltd. +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 +0 CHA China Telecom Corp. Ltd. +2 +2 +0 -2 +0 -2 CHL China Mobile Limited +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 -2 COST Costco Wholesale Corp. +0 +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. -2 -2 +0 -2 +0 -2 CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 CVX Chevron Corp. -2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 DB Deutsche Bank AG +2 +2 +2 -2 +0 -2 DELL Dell Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 DEO Diageo plc +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 DIS Walt Disney Co. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 DOW Dow Chemical Co. -2 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 DNA Genentech Inc. +2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 ECA EnCana Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 ERJ EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronutica S.A. -2 -2 +2 -2 +2 -2 ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. +0 -2 -2 +2 +2 -2 EXC Exelon Corp. +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 GE General Electric Co. -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 -2 GFI Gold Fields Ltd. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 GGB Gerdau S.A. -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 +0 GOL GOL Linhas Areas Inteligentes S.A. -2 +0 -2 -2 +0 -2 GOOG Google Inc. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 GRMN Garmin Ltd. +2 +2 -2 -2 +0 -2 GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc. +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 GSK Glaxosmithkline plc +2 +2 +2 -2 -2 -2 HBC HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS -2 -2 +0 -2 +0 -2 HDB HDFC Bank Ltd. +0 +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 IBKR Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBN ICICI Bank Ltd. +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 +0 IMO Imperial Oil Ltd. -2 -2 +0 +0 +2 +0 INFY Infosys Technologies Ltd. -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 -2 INTC Intel Corp. +0 +2 +2 +0 +0 -2 JCP J. C. Penney Company, Inc -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 JNJ Johnson & Johnson +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 KB Kookmin Bank -2 -2 +0 +0 +0 -2 KO Coca-Cola Co. +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 KSS Kohl's Corp. +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 LEH Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. +2 -2 +0 +2 +2 -2 LLTC Linear Technology Corp. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 LYO Lyondell Chemical Co. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +2 MBT Mobile Telesystems OJSC +2 +2 +0 +0 +2 +0 MCO Moody's Corp. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 MFC Manulife Financial Corporation +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 MICC Millicom International Cellular SA +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 MU Micron Technology Inc. -2 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 NKE Nike Inc. +2 +2 +0 +0 +0 -2 NOK Nokia Corp. +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 NTES Netease.com Inc. +0 +2 +0 -2 -2 -2 NUE Nucor Corp. -2 +2 +2 +0 +2 -2 ORCL Oracle Corp. -2 +2 +2 -2 +2 +2 OXPS optionsXpress Holdings, Inc. +2 +0 +2 +2 +2 +0 PAYX Paychex Inc. -2 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO +0 +0 +2 +0 +2 +0 PG Procter & Gamble Co. +2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 PTR PetroChina Co. Ltd. -2 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 QCOM QUALCOMM Inc. +2 -2 +2 -2 -2 -2 RIO COMPANHIA VALE ADS +0 +0 +0 -2 +0 -2 RIMM Research In Motion Ltd. +0 -2 -2 -2 +2 -2 RY Royal Bank of Canada -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 SBUX Starbucks Corp. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 SLW Silver Wheaton Corp. +0 +0 +0 -2 +2 +2 SNDK SanDisk Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 STO StatoilHydro ASA +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 +0 SU Suncor Energy Inc. -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 SWK Stanley Works -2 -2 +0 -2 +0 -2 TCK Teck Cominco Ltd. -2 -2 -2 -2 +0 +0 TEF Telefonica SA +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 TGP Teekay LNG Partners LP. -2 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 TGT Target Corp. +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 -2 TM Toyota Motor Corp. +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 TOT Total SA +2 +2 +2 -2 +2 +2 TS Tenaris SA -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 TT Trane Inc -2 +2 +0 +2 +2 +2 UBS UBS AG +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 UTX United Technologies Corp. +2 +2 +2 -2 +2 -2 VCP Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A. +0 +2 +0 -2 +0 -2 VIP Vimpel-Communications +2 +2 +2 +0 +2 +0 WAG Walgreen Co. +0 -2 +0 +0 +0 -2 WBK Westpac Banking Corp. +0 +0 +0 -2 -2 -2 WFMI Whole Foods Market Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 WHR Whirlpool Corp. +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -2 WMT Wal-Mart Stores Inc. +2 +2 +2 +2 +0 -2 XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. -2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 YHOO Yahoo! Inc. -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 Summary: (+2/-2/other) 23/39/37 29/28/42 20/25/54 9/55/35 23/31/45 9/70/20 Net: (+2)-(-2) -16 +1 -5 -46 -8 -61 Components of major indices (green/red) were as follows:
In all indices, the number of GREEN components went way down, and RED components went way up ! The RUT took out both its August and November lows !
Among the major indices, only the CRB, Shanghai and Bombay were GREEN. All the rest are RED.
GOLD and SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.BOTTOM LINE: This was NOT an auspicious first week of trading for 2008 !!
Jock
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA=12800; down from 13366 a week ago. That is a drop of -566 in four sessions.
“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, DJIA=13,895.63)
At 12800, which is crucial support to the Bulls, the market level is dangerously close to the precipice.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Nasdaq=2504 down from a week ago at 2674.
“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, Nasdaq=2701.5)
After I saw a short-term bottom of about 2550 in December, supported by strength in the Nasdaq 100 (non-financials), I wrote, “I think we’ll see a lift, but not for long, and this 2350-2400 level will be tested again in December.” Last week I added, “Clearly that did not occur, save for a crash on (part-day) Monday, but I still believe there will be a major sell-off in the next couple weeks…A clearly defined head-and-shoulders pattern is in place for the Nasdaq Composite, and a similar but lesser defined one for the Dow 30. I believe that without higher corporate profits reported for 4Q07 and higher guidance for 1Q08, the average share price will sink as interest rates cannot be forced any lower due to the inflation situation.”
I think the Nasdaq Composite will test the 2350-2400 support level this week. On Friday, while the Composite dropped -98 points or -3.77 pct, the non-financial (ie, the mostly tech) Nasdaq-100 dropped -4.30 pct. Traders who had been previously focused on the deplorable state of the financials have now turned their attention to the Tech sector.
Among industry groups, the worst hit on Friday were: Computer Hardware (-5.8 pct), Disk Drives (-5.2 pct), Semi-conductors (-4.7 pct), Computer Tech (-4.6 pct), and Internet (-4.1 pct). That was just Friday.
Shock and awe. More to come, I think.
I say that because each recovery is less spirited, and the declines more powerful. Traders have moved in outlook from nervous to concerned.
Btw, the Nasdaq website resource is a world best, as I see it.
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
This week the scoreboard reads zero up and 10 down in another four-session week. The previous week was 1 up and 9 down, also over four days.
Presently there are 8 of the Cara 100 that have given Sell Alerts as they dropped out of the Distribution Zone and 14 in the Accumulation Zone, up from 3 a week ago.
Now, the Accumulation Zone is not a time to be buying. It is a time to think about rapidly falling prices of the affected companies as the price-to-value is narrowing. A Buy Alert is set off after the Daily and Weekly RSI-7 rise above the 30 line. For the day traders in the community, a Buy Alert would be an intraday RSI-7D that has lifted above 30.
In practice, traders can use this simple measure to study the trading behavior and price series patterns of the stocks in their portfolio. You will also note that early in a Bull or Bear the 70-30 lines might be extended to 75-25 or 80-20. In my algorithms, I also account for Rate of Change because a powerful move in the market will affect decisions.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N [THROUGH THURSDAY ONLY].
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
CHARTS THROUGH THURSDAY
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
. . . . .
The charts and tables are not updating correctly, so I will cut short this report. Sorry, but a good systems administrator I am not.
I shall return this evening (i) if I’m in satisfactory shape after the On In (LOL), and (ii) the sys admin is able to fix the program.
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Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Value Line Report(s) this past Friday
This week, Value Line reported on Home Depot (HD) and (Cara 100) Procter & Gamble (PG).
Home Depot (HD)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
There are still portfolio managers who think today’s Home Depot is like your father’s Home Depot, just starting out with the world as its oyster. Ain’t true. Today’s Home Depot is tired and worn, like your father perhaps.
Same store sales have fallen -6.2 pct Y/Y. Sales that grew at an annual clip of +18.0 pct for the past ten years are expected to grow at maybe 8.0 pct per year through 2012. And annual earnings growth of +22.0 pct over the past ten years will be maybe +4.5 pct each of the next five years, which is about the true rate of inflation.
Other than firing the grossly overpaid Bob Nardelli, the only thing this company seems to focus on that some traders like is the huge share buy-back program. Maybe some of that capital should be used to brighten up their warehouse stores.
If there is one store I “hate” visiting, it’s Home Depot. The last time I was there, the cashier had me return to an unmarked bin for a non-existent part number of a single screw. The line-up grew longer. After I returned with no bin number, she then told me she couldn’t ring up my purchase. I offered to pay ten times its value just to get out of the store with my needed screw and my other purchases. She declined. Thinking to myself, “screw you,” I put everything down and walked out.
We all have days like that, but truly, I don’t like these stores.
And, I don’t like share buy-backs timed at the top of the market cycle.
Oh, there is a price I might be interested in buying Home Depot. I’d write a combo of Jan-09 15 and 20 puts to acquire the stock at 1997 prices. That’s not $19.97 btw, but maybe $19.
If the company paid down some debt and increased its operating margin, I’d buy even more. The company is not as bad as I make out. After all, it was a Cara 100 at one time.
:-)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Cara 100) Procter & Gamble (PG)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Procter & Gamble is one of my favorite companies. Management should relocate down I-75 to Atlanta and run Home Depot.
This company is financially strong, and every year the revenues, cash flow and dividends per share all grow. For the past three years, the dividends have grown from $1.09 to $1.21 to $1.36, and probably $1.55 for 2008. Other than the present share price, what’s not to like?
Late in 1999, the PE on this stock became so high I was choking. But, in a short three months to start 2000, the price collapsed to under 50 pct its then recent highs.
Traders don’t place much faith in hope, but I’m hoping the same thing happens so that I can back up the truck again. I don’t think it will. There is, however, a chance it could spike down to 60 in an emotional Bear market sell-off. If it does, just remember: b-u-t-t !!
At a price of 60, the PE would be about 17.4 and the dividend yield would be about 2.6 pct, which could be supplemented by put option writes. That would fit well within my comfort zone for a new acquisition.
The Dow 30 Company links
Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)
Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)
American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)
American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)
AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)
Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 21)
Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)
Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)
Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)
Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)
Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)
ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 14: next one is due Mar. 14)
General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)
Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jan. 11: next one is due Apr. 11)
Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)
JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)
McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 7: next one is due Mar. 7)
3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)
Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)
Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)
Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)
Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Jan. 4: next one is due Apr. 4)
United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)
Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)
Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)
Wrap up:
Jist a reminder…
December 16, 2007
Week in Review #50 (2007-12-16)I won’t sugarcoat this: Goldilocks died. Inflation is surging in the US for both producers (PPI) and consumers (CPI), which has brought an end to the 2002-2007 Bull market. The market topped out in October. From that point, global equity markets will experience a series of lower lows and lower highs, which is the definition of a Bear market.
Traders who remain bullish ought not ignore the significance of this move. The DJIA is now at 13340, off its 52-week high of 14198 on Oct 11. The line in the sand for the Bull-Bear struggle is 12800, but that measure of support could be easily taken out in a day or two as we saw in October 1987. Other major equity markets, like Japan, have already caved in.
That was three weeks ago when the DJIA was 13340. It is now 12800. Are you listening?
I am now off to my run with the Nassau Hash House Harriers. If you're in town why not join us for a run.
Today we start and finish at the Red Cross Building. Some of us may need to stay there. :-)
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on January 6, 2008 03:18:40 PM | Category: Cara Week in Review