The signs were clear: plunging US equity futures, which were being hammered, reversed; the European bourses appeared to be opening much stronger than their Asia-Pacific counterparts, and precious metal spot prices bottomed out.

The smell of a rally attempt is in the air.

All eyes are on Prof. Bernanke. After all, the only headline in the global business press yesterday seems to have been that the US economy was going into the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Even Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist David Rosenberg seems to support that argument.

In Asia-Pacific markets earlier today, the Hang Seng of Hong Kong plunged -8.65 pct, Shanghai -7.22 pct, the Nikkei 225 of Japan -5.65 pct, BSE 30 of India -3.69 pct, and the All-Ordinaries of Australia -7.26 pct.

But by 5:00am ET, early action on European bourses was muted. The FTSE 100 of the UK was down -0.94 pct, the DAX of Germany over -3.00 pct, and the CAC 40 of France -0.81 pct. Then by 6:00am, the reversal was complete with all bourses in or headed to positive territory: FTSE +0.46 pct, DAX -1.83 pct, and CAC +0.37 pct.

DJIA futures, which had been crushed by well over -500 points earlier, were down just -28 points at 5:00am ET, and at 6:00am are up +6.

US Treasury interest rate futures indicate higher prices for the instruments and lower for the yields as traders seek safety from falling equity prices. Trading is erratic. The yields may improve here and prices come off as there appears to be a reversal of capital into equities in the early hours of the day.

Spot gold, which hit a low of 848.90 at 3am ET, bounced to 863.20 at about 4am, back to (5:00am) 858.40, and now (6:00am) 864.00.

Spot silver, which hit a low of 15.16 at 3am ET, bounced to 15.61 at about 4am, back (at 5:00am) at 15.48, and presently (6:00am) at 15.60.

So the reversal is obvious. How long it persists is dependent on many factors.

On the economics front, this morning at 9:00am, the Bank of Canada will announce its monetary policy changes and guidance, which may strengthen the Canadian Dollar some. The FOMC starts its meeting next Tuesday and will announce the Fed’s decision at 2:15pm on Wednesday, Jan. 30.

In the interim, there is not much economic data coming from the US other than Existing Home Sales (10am Thurs) and New Home Sales (the following Monday at 10am).

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Comments & Outlook

Success at trading comes to those who are patient and can outlast the Nervous Nellies. The best results come to those who trade mechanically, apparently with blood in their veins. Today we are going to see a little of that.

The US equity market will be a slingshot that the interventionists called the Plunge Protection Team will put into action. Soon to come will be announced policy change as well as open market operations designed to cause short sellers to cover their positions.

The reversal in equity prices here could be significant – certainly enough for a large trading gain in carefully selected stocks.

Perhaps, and this is a possibility, but clearly not a likelihood, a significant rally here could stop the Bear in its tracks, and commence a new Bull market. The attempt will be made – these bankers are desperate – but I feel, at this point, the rally attempt will fizzle.

Should the Fed policy change be too much of a lower rate, then Gold will zoom and the recent strength in the $USD will immediately deteriorate, and then continue its destructive decline. Inflation and trade deficits in the US will worsen and the equity market will panic.

So, in my opinion, today is the start of the interventionist plan to reverse market momentum. Traders ought to close shorts and the most nimble of you look to buy new long positions in carefully selected stocks. I’ll give you names.

If you look to the Cara Accumulation Zone and the Buy Alerts in the recent Daily Report tables, you will see the following:

Buy Alerts (with latest closing price): BC ($15.09), KSS ($40.00), BBBY ($27.05), JCP ($40.93), WAG($33.71), TM ($99.70), PAYX ($33.71), BDK ($65.75), BA ($78.40), DELL ($21.08), CTSH ($26.00), YHOO ($20.78) and WHR ($71.53)

AZ: SNDK ($27.74), HBC ($74.53), CCL ($38.26), and DIS ($28.51).

Now, also look to the recent Wall Street analyst upgrades to Buy or Out-perform. You will see BBBY and RIMM among others. BBBY also had a Buy Alert on my system.

Now, if you have the time and interest, look to those stocks who have a flat or reversible MACD, and a Stochastics chart that has been depressed for several days. That is like a coiled spring.

Moreover, HB&B cannot start a rally attempt without their research analysts on board. Since they all have jobs and pensions to protect, and are part of the club, they will come through with more ratings upgrades. Watch for those this morning and tomorrow, particularly those for stocks in the Cara Accumulation Zone.

Run your own portfolio list through this same protocol and you may be surprised to see how many are in the same favored circumstances. Pounce on these because you will, if there is a rally attempt here, be in a good position to make some portfolio gains.

In the gold and silver miners, the list is too long to repeat here. I’ll leave it to you. But, you will note that ABX, GG, GFI, TCK and SLW are in the Cara 100, and their share prices have been hammered down as precious metal prices pulled back from record highs. These will all be candidates to Buy because FOMC policy change at this point can only be at least -50 basis points, and possibly -75 or -100bp, which will weaken the $USD, and send the goldminer stocks higher.

It could be that the 3am ET low of 848.90 was the short-term cycle low for Spot gold.

In the juniors, possibly the best bet on the board is GIX.V (Geologix Explorations). The GIX closed yesterday in Canada at C$2.10. I think it has the potential, based on excellent drill results, to run to C$3.00 here. The company is getting very high grades of mineralization (gold, silver, lead and zinc) at the San Agustin property in Mexico. I know that the most knowledgeable stockbrokers in Toronto have GIX.V at or near the top of their list.

I also like Western Goldfields (WGI), as you know because of the property, the people, the new production of gold coming onstream.

All in all there is no reason to panic. You can all learn from this period of extreme market trading. You don’t have to throw the babies out with the bathwater.

To conclude, however, that is not a statement on my part that the Bear is dead. What I see happening now is a change in course from south (like 1987) toward south-east (like 2000-2002). At the end of the Bear run, I still am inclined to call a Dow=10000 and Nasdaq Composite=2000 long-term bottom.

Yes, I still see economic problems (recession and inflation) plus skeletons in the closet at HB&B and in many companies who have taken huge positions of little value in so-called alternative Money Markey Funds.

But, often we have to wear two hats: one for the winter season and another for the occasional sunny day that seems to come out of nowhere.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Knobias Cara100 Tables

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

At least one RSI value >70:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
KO	60.74	81.49	46.03	28.95	Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-01-11 at $63.77, -4.75% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
MBT	88.78	79.71	47.90	36.71
ATVI	26.90	77.14	60.97	40.61
TEF	94.39	76.48	48.30	38.93
ABX	46.73	75.29	60.41	45.43	Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-01-15 at $50.25, -7.00% chg], after a 8 day DZ)
VIP	33.96	74.48	44.05	24.08
HDB	118.62	73.45	45.42	35.28
IBN	62.34	70.35	51.83	37.44	Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2008-01-15 at $66.03, -5.59% chg], after a 3 day DZ)
ORCL	21.58	70.14	51.56	47.40
AMAT	18.02	39.14	47.22	73.40

At least one RSI value <30:

Ticker	Last	RSI-7M	RSI-7W	RSI-7D	Zone
BC	15.09	13.17	15.16	30.93	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-18 at $15.09, +0.00% chg], after a 3 day AZ)
SBUX	18.66	14.23	25.77	37.63
KSS	40.00	14.90	22.57	43.22	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-16 at $39.57, +1.09% chg], after a 9 day AZ)
BBBY	27.05	17.77	29.79	50.40	Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-01-14 at $26.66, +1.46% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
UBS	40.00	20.29	21.72	20.39	Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
JCP	40.93	20.49	33.99	61.33	Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2008-01-10 at $37.55, +9.00% chg], after a 5 day AZ)
WAG	33.71	23.58	27.43	39.48	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-16 at $33.24, +1.41% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
SNDK	27.74	24.65	14.35	29.00	Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
LLTC	27.37	25.00	19.97	28.40	Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
HBC	74.53	25.84	16.99	18.50	Accumulation Zone (for 3 days)
TM	99.70	26.89	21.51	33.61	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-18 at $99.70, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
PAYX	33.21	27.04	15.19	34.56	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-16 at $33.64, -1.28% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
CCL	38.26	27.98	18.18	20.56	Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
INFY	38.02	28.70	32.36	20.13
KB	67.39	29.24	36.22	51.31
BDK	65.75	29.31	21.18	44.69	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-16 at $65.99, -0.36% chg], after a 9 day AZ)
WFMI	35.08	29.35	17.53	30.46
DIS	28.51	29.37	16.81	12.75	Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
BA	78.40	29.92	23.38	32.35	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-16 at $79.87, -1.84% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
DELL	21.08	30.45	25.45	36.79	Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-01-17 at $20.86, +1.05% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
CTSH	26.00	30.62	24.87	27.30	Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-16 at $26.20, -0.76% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GOL	18.77	30.92	19.78	10.11
DOW	34.94	31.27	14.04	25.65
INTC	19.00	31.79	18.63	17.38
YHOO	20.78	31.92	25.12	23.65	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-18 at $20.78, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
WHR	71.53	32.57	27.37	33.31	Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-18 at $71.53, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
TS	36.52	33.06	15.29	19.98
DB	114.75	33.56	27.87	19.14
CSCO	24.30	34.20	20.27	21.29
TGP	29.05	34.23	35.49	24.69
ADBE	35.33	34.28	20.78	12.28
BMY	24.48	35.68	25.54	21.94
TCK	29.57	35.90	24.50	19.48
GE	34.31	37.15	23.38	38.22
CCJ	34.29	38.23	28.11	22.06
GRMN	62.99	39.02	23.76	17.40
ERTS	49.42	39.59	27.83	19.98
RY	46.28	40.12	21.29	18.67
MFC	35.43	42.04	21.75	8.44
ERJ	42.09	42.06	29.72	25.36
UTX	68.05	42.17	20.62	15.49
DEO	77.62	42.85	22.36	26.22
STO	26.56	43.06	26.74	28.47
BHP	60.72	49.80	23.61	24.82
SU	90.49	50.10	32.52	16.64
PTR	155.16	50.22	29.65	27.04
NKE	56.50	51.21	26.52	22.78
CVX	83.46	52.05	32.07	20.94
XOM	85.08	52.61	31.62	26.83
VCP	25.83	53.24	28.73	26.10
EXC	75.86	54.06	37.07	21.18
PG	67.15	54.35	29.88	9.24
GGB	25.20	54.75	35.50	25.53
ABB	23.68	55.19	32.52	25.90
OXPS	28.38	55.23	39.64	26.56
BBD	26.94	55.25	34.55	24.84
ECA	62.22	55.78	35.75	24.07
PDA	42.56	56.00	36.94	24.18
MICC	94.57	57.34	37.00	26.29
NOK	32.60	58.21	31.76	26.36
RIO	28.83	58.75	33.25	28.44
IMO	49.16	59.44	41.48	28.36
RIMM	88.58	59.66	37.25	28.56
CEO	150.01	60.58	39.19	28.44
GOOG	600.25	60.85	35.20	23.07
PBR	94.37	68.40	43.36	24.57
VIP	33.96	74.48	44.05	24.08
KO	60.74	81.49	46.03	28.95	Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2008-01-11 at $63.77, -4.75% chg], after a 2 day DZ)

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HD	26.28	0.03	0.11%	6.35%	5.29%	0.15%	0.65%	-17.05%	-34.37%	-35.70%
IBM	103.40	2.30	2.27%	5.87%	2.24%	-3.49%	-1.23%	-9.93%	-6.91%	3.97%
GM	23.52	0.68	2.98%	0.09%	-0.55%	-11.78%	-3.65%	-41.04%	-34.67%	-23.64%
WMT	47.58	0.10	0.21%	-0.29%	4.07%	-1.04%	1.45%	3.68%	-0.96%	-1.67%
AXP	43.61	0.94	2.20%	-0.89%	-11.25%	-15.99%	-14.56%	-25.66%	-32.96%	-26.08%
JNJ	66.29	-1.54	-2.27%	-2.34%	0.68%	-1.53%	0.58%	2.14%	6.58%	-2.10%
GE	34.31	1.10	3.31%	-2.45%	-4.80%	-6.18%	-6.66%	-15.89%	-15.18%	-9.71%
BA	78.40	-1.12	-1.41%	-2.63%	-8.65%	-9.49%	-9.49%	-19.13%	-23.00%	-10.91%
HON	55.30	-0.27	-0.49%	-2.64%	-5.11%	-9.48%	-7.68%	-8.88%	-8.66%	22.78%
MSFT	33.01	-0.10	-0.30%	-2.65%	-3.98%	-5.12%	-6.27%	5.94%	6.76%	6.52%
HPQ	43.75	0.75	1.74%	-2.78%	-6.66%	-14.47%	-12.17%	-17.25%	-7.19%	3.33%
MMM	74.91	-0.05	-0.07%	-3.44%	-8.38%	-11.80%	-9.43%	-20.92%	-18.11%	-4.95%
MCD	52.40	0.42	0.81%	-3.53%	-8.15%	-10.96%	-9.81%	-7.73%	0.38%	17.52%
JPM	39.40	-0.64	-1.60%	-3.57%	-3.74%	-10.41%	-6.57%	-14.16%	-19.16%	-18.17%
PG	67.15	-0.92	-1.35%	-4.32%	-6.76%	-7.99%	-7.14%	-5.29%	7.29%	2.46%
DD	42.70	-0.10	-0.23%	-4.39%	-1.57%	0.28%	-2.38%	-11.32%	-19.96%	-15.28%
MO	75.42	-1.38	-1.80%	-4.56%	0.69%	-1.64%	0.65%	6.39%	7.28%	14.26%
KO	60.74	-1.30	-2.10%	-4.75%	-1.79%	-3.36%	-0.57%	2.32%	13.68%	25.63%
CAT	62.81	0.34	0.54%	-4.85%	-8.35%	-11.34%	-11.07%	-19.12%	-27.16%	4.86%
UTX	68.05	-0.04	-0.06%	-5.06%	-9.29%	-10.22%	-9.52%	-12.11%	-9.94%	4.84%
T	36.11	-1.19	-3.19%	-5.47%	-11.69%	-9.59%	-11.93%	-13.63%	-8.88%	3.11%
XOM	85.08	1.17	1.39%	-5.78%	-7.60%	-6.95%	-9.02%	-10.49%	-6.66%	18.23%
DIS	28.51	-0.26	-0.90%	-5.97%	-8.42%	-11.62%	-10.46%	-18.03%	-17.60%	-20.47%
PFE	22.51	-0.45	-1.96%	-6.29%	-1.40%	-3.27%	-1.75%	-8.27%	-10.43%	-17.15%
VZ	39.09	-1.82	-4.45%	-8.02%	-8.24%	-10.45%	-9.53%	-13.08%	-6.86%	4.05%
AA	29.10	0.31	1.08%	-8.29%	-16.55%	-15.63%	-19.46%	-24.18%	-37.35%	-3.96%
AIG	52.05	-2.22	-4.09%	-9.76%	-5.88%	-8.51%	-7.55%	-19.77%	-25.11%	-26.63%
MRK	53.32	-1.55	-2.82%	-11.94%	-6.21%	-10.14%	-7.06%	-0.13%	6.77%	16.57%
INTC	19.00	-0.33	-1.71%	-13.60%	-16.19%	-27.45%	-25.05%	-29.55%	-24.18%	-7.99%
C	24.45	-0.51	-2.04%	-14.39%	-15.75%	-19.07%	-15.46%	-44.22%	-52.62%	-55.05%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	27.91	0.38	1.38%	-1.03%	-4.58%	-13.75%	-11.00%	-23.99%	-30.74%	-15.83%
XLY	29.52	-0.14	-0.47%	-2.38%	-4.28%	-10.27%	-8.32%	-19.74%	-25.98%	-25.49%
XLP	27.15	-0.40	-1.45%	-3.96%	-3.45%</