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January 5, 2008
Daily Report for Sat, Jan 05, 2008
Markets Re-cap
The equity market Bulls took a hammering on Friday, not just in the US, but for most of the world.
While the major US indexes were down between -2.0 pct and -3.8 pct on the day, many international equity markets like the UK FTSE (-2.0 pct) dropped a similar amount. The Tokyo market was closed. There were some pockets of strength in Hong Kong (+2.4 pct) and India (+1.7 pct) however, so we will have to watch the opening there on Monday for possible follow-through with other falling markets.
In the US, the leaders on the downside were: Technology (XLK -3.90 pct), Energy (XLE -3.65 pct), Consumer Discretionary (XLY -3.14 pct) and Basic Materials (XLB -3.02 pct).
Three so-called defensive sectors were not badly hurt, and one even gained on the day: Healthcare (XLV -1.02 pct), Consumer Staples (XLP -0.42 pct) and Utilities (XLU +0.76 pct).
Among industry groups, the worst hit were: Computer Hardware (-5.8 pct), Disk Drives (-5.2 pct), Semi-conductors (-4.7 pct), Computer Tech (-4.6 pct), Paper (-4.4 pct), Internet (-4.1 pct), Broker-Dealers (-3.9 pct), Retailers (-3.9 pct), REITs (-3.8 pct), Transports (-3.6 pct) and Banks (-3.3 pct).
Clearly, the selling was inspired by concerns that the US economy is probably now in recession. The econ data is deteriorating at a rapid pace in the US and elsewhere, and traders know that there is a timing delay with the reporting of econ data.
Goldminers ($XAU) dropped -2.2 pct, while $GOLD contracts were down only -3.40/oz to 865.70 (-0.39 pct). Crude Oil fell -1.27/bbl (-1.28 pct) to 97.91.
US Treasury Bonds rallied as yields fell again. The yield on the 10-year is now at 3.854, and the 2-year down to 3.115 pct.
The Yen is up to 92.24 and the Euro to 147.72, while the trade-weighted $USD dropped only -0.06 pct to 75.82. The weakest currencies on Friday were the British Pound and the Canadian and Australian Dollars.
Comments & Outlook
I try to provide content in what I do. Wiki says that “Content from the perspective of media and publishing may be thought of as information and experiences created by individuals, institutions and technology to benefit audiences in contexts that they value.”
Proof of concept of my content occurs when in an instant I can point you to the clear evidence.
Consider the following discussion.
The DJIA closed the week at 12800. At what point does a market move from nervousness to fear? Some of you think that fear has already set in, but I beg to differ. That process, in my thinking, will not start until the DJIA falls below the line-in-the-sand at 12,800 that I have written about since July 13.
For the proof, simply enter the number 12800 in the Search window on the right sidebar of this website/blog, and click to find the multiple instances of my writing.
If you wish, I’ll make it easy by having you click here.
Do you recall in early August, the equity market was looking very shaky? I recall hearing people talking about “fear” then too and so I wrote in the Week In Review of Aug-05-07, “Yes, I do believe that the DJIA could possibly trade in this 12800 to 14000 range for several months as opposed say to dropping like a stone to 10500, 9350, 8750 or numbers like that.”
If you re-read that August 5 blog, you will see that not only did I think there would be an end to the precipitous decline of the markets at that point, but I also opined that the DJIA would likely “be range-bound between 12800 and 14000 for a while.”
The actual limits turned out to be a spike low of 12456 (week of Aug-13) to a spike high of 14280 (week of Oct-08), with almost all trading in the range of 12800 to 14000.
So, today, while we can see that the DJIA is sitting on the precipice of a potential sheer drop to (in my words) “10500, 9350, 8750 or numbers like that”, it hasn’t yet happened and until the process begins, bullish traders are nervous, which is my point. I don't yet see fear.
Here is the Comment & Outlook section of the Daily Report for Thursday Jan-03. It speaks volumes. I call it “content”.
Dow = 12800 is the apparent line in the sand between the Bull-Bear stand-off.
There are still many Bulls standing (at Dow 13044), but the weight of the evidence for the Bear side is building, with: (i) head-and-shoulders top formation unlikely to be broken, (ii) banks breaking up deals previously announced by Private Equity and presumably loans for LBOs and massive share buy-backs and dividend increases, (iii) worsening US, UK and Japanese economic data, (iv) length of time since US Treasury yield curve went inverted, which is almost always followed by a Bear, and (v) length of the Bull (from 4Q02).Should the US employment data that is being reported today and tomorrow not hold up, then, following yesterday’s report of a badly slumping US manufacturing sector, it will be difficult for economists to deny the onset of recession in the US. As you know, I say we are already in it, but the data is slow to be reported.
Share prices will likely not rise unless corporate profits rise and balance sheets strengthen. But there is an illiquid credit market and banks are tightening. US retail sales reports for the important Christmas period are going to flood in on January 10, with guidance set for 1Q08, and will probably be quite weak. In addition, the massive lending by central banks to HB&B to get them through the year-end liquidity crisis will have to be repaid. If there is no repayment or the cb’s roll-over these loans, I believe we will see oil zoom to 120 and gold to 1,000.
In other words, the market is at a crossroads here. Paulson and Bernanke have no rope left. If the US Jobs data is not strong, and it is unlikely to be, then I believe there will be a huge safe-haven flight to bonds, which will drive the yields to extreme lows, and the next wave down for equity prices will be the big one.
Day traders will be able to make their year in a couple days. That is how volatile I expect the market to be in the days ahead.
In the two days since I wrote that piece, the US Jobs Report produced a horrific number and there was a save-haven flight to bonds, while the DJIA fell -244 points. I now believe “the next wave down for equity prices will be the big one”.
Will it come on Monday? We don’t yet know. But I believe (i) it is soon to happen, and (ii) the European market opening on Monday will be the ‘tell’.
One final point for today: Some of you have placed too much confidence in the stability of your dividends or in the share prices of currently high dividend payers. Here is a link to an article you need to read and ponder.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIP | 40.73 | 94.98 | 74.16 | 46.37 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2007-12-27 at $42.68, -4.57% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| PBR | 109.89 | 91.80 | 64.51 | 42.94 | Sell alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2007-12-31 at $115.24, -4.64% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| MBT | 95.51 | 89.33 | 63.88 | 39.64 | Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-02 at $100.07, -4.56% chg], after a 3 day DZ) |
| ATVI | 27.84 | 88.83 | 67.98 | 45.69 | Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-01-02 at $28.43, -2.08% chg], after a 8 day DZ) |
| KO | 61.85 | 83.11 | 60.27 | 43.65 | |
| AET | 55.97 | 81.68 | 53.62 | 31.93 | |
| TT | 45.22 | 76.54 | 71.63 | 57.42 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-04 at $45.22, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| OXPS | 31.92 | 76.00 | 69.43 | 43.77 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2007-12-27 at $32.45, -1.63% chg], after a 4 day DZ) |
| XOM | 92.08 | 74.52 | 58.57 | 43.31 | |
| TEF | 94.12 | 74.22 | 48.63 | 27.49 | |
| TOT | 84.07 | 74.11 | 65.88 | 63.52 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-04 at $84.07, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| EXC | 82.03 | 73.71 | 54.64 | 49.65 | |
| PG | 72.02 | 73.45 | 51.43 | 27.30 | |
| CVX | 93.35 | 73.21 | 63.69 | 51.87 | |
| HDB | 121.53 | 71.28 | 48.86 | 34.97 | |
| GOOG | 657.00 | 70.85 | 49.01 | 24.46 | |
| NOK | 35.98 | 70.82 | 42.88 | 29.69 | |
| RIO | 31.76 | 70.61 | 44.02 | 33.80 | |
| CHA | 76.26 | 70.55 | 49.71 | 46.27 | |
| SLW | 17.67 | 70.45 | 65.70 | 57.08 | |
| SU | 109.40 | 70.41 | 66.06 | 57.51 | Sell alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-01-04 at $109.40, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| GFI | 16.21 | 44.13 | 48.09 | 71.19 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 15.74 | 10.62 | 17.33 | 10.30 | Accumulation Zone (for 7 days) |
| SBUX | 18.11 | 14.20 | 9.92 | 19.13 | Accumulation Zone (for 3 days) |
| MU | 6.40 | 15.35 | 16.34 | 7.66 | Accumulation Zone (for 9 days) |
| JCP | 37.64 | 15.81 | 18.61 | 20.98 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| BBBY | 26.19 | 18.10 | 20.62 | 16.74 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| WAG | 34.29 | 20.47 | 28.98 | 21.79 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| KSS | 40.90 | 20.90 | 15.31 | 16.90 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| DNA | 66.38 | 22.73 | 31.77 | 28.64 | |
| MCO | 33.24 | 25.59 | 17.94 | 16.13 | Accumulation Zone (for 4 days) |
| UBS | 43.79 | 25.74 | 26.22 | 21.40 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| SWK | 44.35 | 25.77 | 23.10 | 15.71 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| SNDK | 30.42 | 26.37 | 17.43 | 9.25 | Accumulation Zone (for 5 days) |
| BDK | 66.36 | 26.52 | 21.15 | 17.25 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| TM | 103.94 | 28.63 | 28.35 | 29.36 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| TGT | 48.08 | 28.79 | 29.04 | 23.13 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| DOW | 36.99 | 30.89 | 18.87 | 14.33 | |
| PAYX | 34.01 | 30.99 | 17.13 | 13.64 | |
| WHR | 75.64 | 32.44 | 33.86 | 22.22 | |
| KB | 67.08 | 32.96 | 32.22 | 28.41 | |
| DIS | 31.13 | 33.64 | 29.94 | 23.16 | |
| DELL | 22.09 | 34.42 | 26.23 | 15.35 | |
| LLTC | 30.13 | 34.48 | 31.67 | 23.31 | |
| WFMI | 37.92 | 34.65 | 23.46 | 20.97 | |
| AMAT | 16.77 | 34.71 | 22.03 | 21.71 | |
| CTSH | 31.00 | 34.92 | 35.87 | 28.47 | |
| HBC | 81.25 | 34.97 | 27.70 | 25.07 | |
| GOL | 22.19 | 37.81 | 30.30 | 18.45 | |
| CCL | 41.71 | 37.93 | 27.89 | 21.35 | |
| QCOM | 37.03 | 38.18 | 34.10 | 21.65 | |
| LEH | 58.35 | 38.27 | 41.13 | 27.77 | |
| BMY | 25.75 | 39.91 | 26.72 | 11.72 | |
| BA | 85.82 | 40.31 | 33.84 | 29.91 | |
| CSCO | 26.12 | 41.55 | 26.95 | 22.34 | |
| TS | 43.21 | 44.77 | 28.70 | 31.65 | |
| INTC | 22.67 | 45.47 | 29.09 | 13.57 | |
| ADBE | 40.36 | 46.36 | 34.62 | 27.56 | |
| NUE | 54.82 | 47.54 | 43.70 | 24.84 | |
| WMT | 45.72 | 48.21 | 44.22 | 22.57 | |
| ERTS | 54.51 | 51.66 | 41.42 | 24.11 | |
| CHRW | 49.97 | 51.74 | 45.70 | 25.70 | |
| DEO | 83.68 | 54.66 | 34.74 | 25.15 | |
| MFC | 38.94 | 54.91 | 35.33 | 22.65 | |
| GRMN | 88.45 | 57.09 | 37.55 | 23.64 | |
| JNJ | 65.84 | 59.74 | 45.94 | 20.03 | |
| COST | 65.65 | 64.78 | 45.28 | 21.53 | |
| ABB | 26.70 | 65.73 | 44.48 | 27.19 | |
| NKE | 61.74 | 66.00 | 43.90 | 24.31 | |
| BBD | 29.15 | 66.87 | 42.88 | 27.69 | |
| NOK | 35.98 | 70.82 | 42.88 | 29.69 | |
| GOOG | 657.00 | 70.85 | 49.01 | 24.46 | |
| PG | 72.02 | 73.45 | 51.43 | 27.30 | |
| TEF | 94.12 | 74.22 | 48.63 | 27.49 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 3.09 | 3.11 | 3.01 | 2.96 |
| 6 Month | 3.09 | 3.15 | 3.29 | 3.13 |
| 2 Year | 2.72 | 2.81 | 3.09 | 2.93 |
| 3 Year | 2.66 | 2.73 | 3.04 | 2.91 |
| 5 Year | 3.18 | 3.25 | 3.49 | 3.32 |
| 10 Year | 3.87 | 3.89 | 4.07 | 3.95 |
| 30 Year | 4.38 | 4.37 | 4.49 | 4.43 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 2.85 | 2.92 | 3.11 | 3.13 |
| 2yr AAA | 2.94 | 2.99 | 3.12 | 3.14 |
| 2yr A | 3.24 | 3.29 | 3.37 | 3.26 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.15 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 3.33 |
| 5yr AA | 3.09 | 3.17 | 3.35 | 3.24 |
| 5yr A | 3.44 | 3.50 | 3.51 | 3.43 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.67 | 3.65 | 3.87 | 3.69 |
| 10yr AA | 3.62 | 3.41 | 3.76 | 3.56 |
| 10yr A | 3.90 | 3.87 | 4.10 | 3.92 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.30 | 4.35 | 4.59 | 4.37 |
| 20yr AA | 4.44 | 4.49 | 4.72 | 4.17 |
| 20yr A | 4.25 | 4.30 | 4.60 | 4.74 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.10 | 4.09 | 4.28 | 4.11 |
| 2yr A | 4.29 | 4.29 | 4.46 | 4.41 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.30 | 4.38 | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| 5yr AA | 4.59 | 4.59 | 4.91 | 4.66 |
| 5yr A | 4.51 | 4.63 | 4.79 | 4.59 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.03 | 5.04 | 5.03 | 5.11 |
| 10yr AA | 5.29 | 5.29 | 5.32 | 5.40 |
| 10yr A | 5.45 | 5.46 | 5.45 | 5.59 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.24 | 5.26 | 5.32 | 5.38 |
| 20yr AA | 5.72 | 5.64 | 5.76 | 5.62 |
| 20yr A | 6.06 | 6.02 | 6.19 | 6.12 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Feb-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:









