A collection of speculative Gold juniors:

ARU.TO BUF-U.V BVG.V CBR.V CAN.V GBS.TO GCX.TO GBN.V ICI.TO ITH.V LSG.TO MJS.V MMM.TO NGG.V PGR.V PRZ.V R.V SLI.V TLG.V UXG WGDF.OB

To this list I would add Augen Gold.

Here is the RBCCM selection of gold juniors published last year:

ANO.TO AXM.V BLRTF.PK BAA.TO BGOMF.PK CMF.TO KRY.TO CLG.TO DMM.V EET.TO EGU.TO EPM.TO FAN.TO GBU.TO GRZ.TO GBG.TO GSL.TO IMZ.TO KBR.TO KGI.TO LSG.TO LRR.TO MVG.TO MR.TO MFL.TO MAE.TO MGL.TO MUN.TO NSU.TO OZN.TO OSK.V SEA.V SWG.TO SAGDF.PK WGDF.OB

Another place to look would be under Sprott mutual funds in the SEDAR.COM, or Van Eck ETF:

http://www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=3192&cGroup=ETF&tkr=GDX&LN=3-02

These sources would provide the necessary comparison and contrast. What's missing are quality silver juniors here.

"Anything as good in life as learning to trade with confidence takes time to master. Give it time. Day by day, you will see the results."

right on...is this blog not like the ultimate trading tome, where new chapters are written each day in real time, and you actually live the book? virtual classes with a daily lecture followed by laboratory and discourse LOL...

thanks, bill

2nd...

The ruse is up...They ran it down as far as they could last night...

IMO...let the crazy rally resume...

Some short covering in gold on the TOCOM yesterday...They are trying like H-ll to keep this thing from exploding...

I still think they will loose..The final push will be so much fun...

Heh, I second that, 2nd!

Four months ago, I thought a "straddle" was something you do.... uh, wrong blog....nevermind, and now I have a minimal understanding of the risk/reward, and my first low risk position playing out and my friends here guiding me through it.

Four months is a short time, but my goal when I started this has a five-year learning curve, i.e. I want to end my first year on the plus side (or very minimally down), be making steady trading income my second year, and within five years be producing as much income from trading/investing as I have from my day job.

As Bill says, day by day, I learn more and become a better trader :-)

....and that would be thanks to all here!

What a fade yesterday! LOL, Cramer was on C 'N B Sold TV SAYING "MARKET CAN ONLY GO HIGHER"
Wow, is he crazy?

Anybody able to make big money on puts I commend you. It seems futures are the way to go in these times, as bulls slowly walk up the stairs and the bear gets tossed out the window ...hence major put %'s

By the way, Bill, I agree with you about the future in alt energy and the like, great points as we must invest in the next leaders...however, I see Japan as a better case for an investment than most.
They have savings, and have take American created technologies and make them better in the past - electronics, cars, etc - and that may happen soon with biotech, greentech, and the internet.

SS

The following from this morning's Globe & Mail :

Toronto-based zinc producer Breakwater Resources Inc. was among the top gainers in the mining sector yesterday, rising 10.3 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Mr. Davidson, however, said the gains were in part owing to increased speculation that Winnipeg copper and zinc producer HudBay Minerals Inc. could bid for its smaller rival

Bill,
TM is going to turn in good results from the buy signal. They may want to look at their profits today. If folks had factored in the general market direction and more recently the sell off in tech, then YHOO might not have been a buy at the time of the signal but after earnings.
As it was, yesterday you brought our attention to it's oversold condition and possible arbitrage and that, so far, was a good buy point.
The jury is still out on that call but the buy alert was just one bit of info.

I don't know about anyone else but I have lost more money trying to game earnings rather than waiting for equites to come to me at much better prices afterward.

Anyone seeing the story on Bristol Myers and their subprime exposure? Apparently they invest in notes for additional income on capital....oops.

I wish I could join Bill to work too. In the meanwhile I have to type at home. Check what Raymond James and W.D. Gann project for the economy here
http://wallastoninvestments.com/wp-admin/index.php?page=stats

EEMTRADER,

Thank you for the advice; I welcome it and appreciate the generosity.
Still on a steep learning curve here with technical analysis. I can day trade only a few days per week; need to tread carefully.
Bill's AZ/DZ method has kicked in for me, after twenty odd years of 'emotional' trading/investing. I'm learning daily from the community here; it's as if I've learned how to breathe again.

Stu

bg- are you saying you're buying the pull-back?

Initial jobless claims reported @ 8:30 are up more than expected, (DJIA now down 120 @ INO, was down 20 in Bill's morning report earlier)

The numbers in jobless claims have seasonally adjusted and unadjusted numbers. the adjusted numbers showed the increase in claims, and it seems as if Bloomberg's article quotes the seasonally adjusted although it's not exact. Bloomberg's jobless claims number is closer to that than the unadjusted, (which actually posted a decrease in claims) So I assume everybody follows

Bah - oh well. looking to get rid of my ultra shorts on any morning drop. Now the DJIA futures are down 134...

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes at this moment:

Downgrade:

ADBE - to Underperform @ Jefferies & Co.

New Coverage:

NOK - Above Average @ Caris & Co.
RIMM - Average @ Caris & Co.

Target Price Raised:

BA - $64 to $66 @ AmTech Research

Target Price Lowered:

BA - $87 to $78 @ Citigroup
BA - $112 to $105 @ Lehman Bros.
ERTS - $62 to $58 @ Kaufman Bros.
PAYX - $47 to $43 @ Lehman Bros.
SBUX - $27 to $25 @ Lehman Bros.
SBUX - $22 to $21 @ RBC

-------------------------------------------------

New Research Report on Vimpel-Communications (VIP):

http://tinyurl.com/2ejzbb

Stu: Those support and resistance zones on the $SPX are short term accumulation and distribution zones...

In a downtrend..Bill mentioned adjusting RSI to accomodate a change in trend..adjust accordingly...55-65 may be high in this current market environment..for the indices anyway..each stock is different.

On second thought, given the pessimistic news atmosphere, maybe I'll just up my sell stop to lock in some profits from yesterday. Then see how far today's hemorrhage goes.

Speaking of small, growing companies and alternative energy, I still like ESLR even though I traded it badly this month. I still have some shares in my retirement account that I expect will grow significantly in the years ahead.

Last night they reported earnings that surprised to the upside. Nothing to bring out the band about, and there are still skeptics. But they remain on track and, given these "interesting times", it's good to see confirmation of my long-term view.

BTW, the solar stocks trade as a group. Sooner or later, we'll see a few of them decouple positively.

2nd,
I may be wrong but it feels pretty negative today...much fear of bond insurers and monolines.

I'm holding my one ultra and looking for extreme buying opportunities. Hoping to profit from SKF.
Waiting on most everything else. Cash is still money, right?

What's your take?

craig- all in cash and looking to go short...waiting for good entry points in the right sectors (look at DUG pre-market)...

2nd ave...

Yes I am looking to buy...Sounds crazy, but the futures S&P 1325 level looks good...

If that fails then I will hold out to 1310.00

IMO the easy trade is to short at this level...I like to go against what is easy...and will look to go long...

2nd, FXP hitting key support, if it breaks here look out below... May be a buy opportunity.

What's missing are quality silver juniors here.

Posted by: FranSix at January 31, 2008 6:50 AM

ECU.to (ECUFX) is a silver junior first mentioned by Kaimu if memory is correct. Speculative like all jrs so please doydd.

Disclosure: Have a position in ECU

Basketguy...wait for employment report tommorow....?

QID- scaling in at 50.97...

HGD.TO at 9.44 (USD)...

2nd_ave...

sndk..seems to be holding up well after earnings...

Looking for a nice POP(Coiled spring) to the upside..

BSC still looks like a good short candidate here. As mentioned yesterday, bumped right up to upper resistance channel and is turning down, stop is pretty well identified. Lower support extends down to 70.

sndk- all the bad news specific to its business has to be priced in by now, right->what's uncertain is how much collateral damage it would suffer during a broad market drop...

Don't know if this got posted yet...

You will want to be sitting when you read this and no sharp instruments around

http://tinyurl.com/3b6d46

Out of SKF.
Into UYG.

Early GFI is paying off.
Looks like miners coming back...

Thought I'd share a quick story for some humour. I work for big company, and have a Defined Contribution Benefit Plan. I proactively moved approx 70% of my Retirement into GIC's over the last 6 months from various equity based funds that I was previously holding. (this is a lot as i'm 34 yrs old) Anyhow, with all the turmoil in last 6 months I haven't lost anything, nor gained much. (thanks to all here for the knowledge I've picked up, I moved into a defensive position). I get a form-letter note yesterday in the mail from the Canadian Insurance company that oversee's the Benefit plan recommending that I diversify into more equities. Anyhow, I thought there was a lot of irony there. Don't get me wrong, I will certainly go back into equities.

The slogan on the letter reads "mix it up: Make your money move with a diversified portfolio" Beautiful charts showing various returns on $100 invested 5 years ago etc etc.

"Make your money move" .. priceless... sure would have moved, would be down -10% in the last 30 days.

Sadly I'm sure we're paying for this "advice" somehow.

Thanks to basketguy for link to story on derivatives. I can hardly breathe.

craig/bg- nice call->you guys are making some fast moves...

adding to QID at 50.60...

basketguy, Try $516 trillion!

Here is what Sinclair has to say on this.

Posted On: Tuesday, January 29, 2008, 7:00:00 PM EST

BIS Notes $516 Trillion In OTC Derivatives As Notional Value In Effort To Depreciate Number

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

I have spent my day studying the report from the Bank for International Settlements that states the size of the mountain of special performance contracts called over the counter derivatives. That category is 96% of all reported derivatives.

I am in shock when I see a total of $516 trillion dollars worth of these weapons of mass financial destruction. That number is still growing exponentially. I also note that the BIS has done hand stands to label this number as notional value in a clear effort to depreciate the number. It is that effort that has caught most of my attention. It is in itself a form of spin doctoring the facts.

The reason I say this is the axiomatic fact that when the losing side of the special performance contract called a derivative fails to perform, as is the case now, notional value becomes full value.

If you fail, defined as going belly up because your debits have eaten all you have, say on soybeans futures, on the day of delivery what is it that you owe. That amount is determined by the market value of all the soybeans being delivered to you. No one on the profit side of the OTC derivative can see it coming because there is no clearing house that pays in to the winner and takes money from the loser daily as in the listed commodity futures markets. Notional value then becomes real value out of the blue, which is now expressed as the marking down of a losing position. Then as Societe Generale is attempting to do, the next step is to be taken over quite quickly or as in the US investment bank’s case, selling yourself to China, Singapore and the Middle East to stay afloat.

Conclusion:

1. There is no limit to the amount of liquidity that will be created by unified actions of all Western central banks in an attempt to prevent the conversion from notional to full value of the mountain of OTC Derivatives.
2. There is no point at which central banks will fail to attempt to drop rates by unified action of all Western central banks in an attempt to prevent the conversion from notional to full value of the mountain of OTC Derivatives.
3. Inflationary concerns take a back seat to the unified action of all Western central banks in an attempt to prevent the conversion from notional to full value of the mountain of OTC derivatives.

This condition places gold at a minimum of $1650 and the US dollar at the major .5200 magnet as a pull from the front will be realized.

This tells me that good gold shares free of problems on the ground, as well as all other types of commodity shares, will NOT fail in the final analysis to go in the direction of the underlying commodity and multiply the gains because of inherent leverage.

The geeks would have you believe that if you can stay in the OTC derivative spreads all markets will return to normal over time and all will be well. They still can't understand all the fuss.

What they in that rarified air of pomposity have forgotten to take into account is:

1. Long can be an awfully long wait, like a lifetime.
2. Notional Value becomes full value when the performance side of an OTC derivative fails financially.
3. Because of bankruptcies and near bankruptcies still struggling, OTC derivatives are now worthless and will remain worthless even when and if the market in question returns to normal; whatever normal is in the first place. Full value has to be written off, rendering notional value meaningless. There is no question in my mind about this. Full value of bankrupt OTC derivatives, according to the correctly given definition of bankruptcy, has NOT been properly written off and much more from many more financial entities is still to come.

The bottom line is the BIS has gone far out of their way to label the $516 trillion dollars worth of derivatives as $516 trillion in notional value, which needs a qualifying statement. The qualifying statement is the reported number is $516 trillion dollars in notional value, but that any or all of that number can and might become full value should the side that must perform become financially unable to do so.

The real problem is that there is no solution once the bankruptcy occurs.

All Western central bank unified efforts are to bull the equity markets and recharge business activity in order to bury the bodies so deeply no one will ever know. Since the grease of the wheels of the equity market is LIQUIDITY, not fundamental business performance, there is no limit to how far unified Western central banks will go in supplying liquidity or trying to force interest rates lower. It is this effort getting out of hand that will give us, to the degree it gets out of hand, the Weimar Republic Shock.

Just don't peek into the holdings of your GIC fund there steele73. You may not like what you see if yours is managed like the others I see.

Hi,

The lows for the day seem to be in...

I know there are plenty of holders of SLW here as I am as well. Does anyone have an opinion to Goldcorp considering selling of their stake in SLW?

uyg: holding for XLF target of 28.39, then will tighten stops. 28.39 is support/resistance for XLF. If it breaks through I'll hold my winner with the stop. If not I sell UYG with XLF at or near 28.39.

Looks like we're hitting that point now...

Peter...

I almost jumped out my window after I read the article...

Steele...I have almost the same story...

Lat year in early Aug my wife came home from work with her 401K statement. Her boss pulled her into his office and told her that there are people that could help her DIVERSIFY her portfolio to maximize her return.. She was about 75% in the money market because we pulled her out of the market right before the Feb crash...

Then two days before the bottom in AUG..We went ALL IN and rode it to Late Oct..Sold all around 14000...

Last week her boss came to her and said "Can you believe what has happened to the market?"

Her reply was "I have been out of the market since October of last year"

He was silent...Almost could not believe what he had just heard...Now everyday since he has been asking my wife for advice...HOW IRONIC...

UYG: out here. Maybe early but the mo is turning against me.

Again from Sinclair.

The following definitions are relevant (taken from www.investopedia.com)

Notional Value

The total value of a leveraged position's assets. This term is commonly used in the options, futures and currency markets because in them a very little amount of invested money can control a large position (have a large consequence for the trader).

For example, one S&P 500 Index futures contract obligates the buyer to 250 units of the S&P 500 Index. If the index is trading at $1,000, then the single futures contract is similar to investing $250,000 (250 x $1,000). Therefore, $250,000 is the notional value underlying the futures contract.

Credit Derivative

Privately held negotiable bilateral contracts that allow users to manage their exposure to credit risk. Credit derivatives are financial assets like forward contracts, swaps, and options for which the price is driven by the credit risk of economic agents (private investors or governments).

For example, a bank concerned that one of its customers may not be able to repay a loan can protect itself against loss by transferring the credit risk to another party while keeping the loan on its books.

Credit Default Swap

A swap designed to transfer the credit exposure of fixed income products between parties.

The buyer of a credit swap receives credit protection, whereas the seller of the swap guarantees the credit worthiness of the product. By doing this, the risk of default is transferred from the holder of the fixed income security to the seller of the swap.

For example, the buyer of a credit swap will be entitled to the par value of the bond by the seller of the swap, should the bond default in its coupon payments.

2nd_ave...

I like to watch the RUT..or IWM..

We are now positive...

Like I said this morning...The Ruse is up...Go against the flow...The news could not have been more negative and we are in rally mode off the lows...

Large drop in natural gas inventories.

2,262 Bcf vs 2,536 last week: -274Bcf (estimate was -256Bcf)

1 year ago storage was 2,598Bcf.

The previous record drop was 267Bcf in 1977.

Basketguy....I dont know about Rally mode...$SPX tried to fill the gap and failed and looks like reversing.., cant even clear the 10 min 10 move ave....I say we go lower and test the lows...and maybe even break the low..

I do not believe we have seen the lows for today...and...wil da boyz be buying before tommroows job report?

bg- still think yesterday's post-FOMC rally was a classic bull trap- and that bulls expended serious ammo buying into it...

YHOO: stopped out. Oh well. Such is trading...

Re: SLW

I believe HB&B crooks are hard at work stealing shares. The recent news releases all smell of manipulation. Such as “ quoted from a reliable source” or “gg has said they may want to sell”. All inuendos from those trying to drive the price down. One poster on the yahoo message board has observed that investment bank Macquaire started shorting around 19 when rumors started circulating that gg “may be” talking to investment banks about selling their shares (seems they may have talked to Mac about floating the shares). When the recent news releases started flooding the wires Mac covered about 250,000 shares. It looks really crooked to me and I am pissed. No official word from either gg or slw, except slw says don't go for the mini tender at $16 CAD. Doesn't matter, fear is rampant and people are selling.

2nd, yep. The one word warning from go34 was the clue. The word?

Distribution.
That's Wall St. gibberish for SELLING which is what they were doing, starting about a half hour before the fed yesterday.

The whisper # must have made the rounds.

Jesse - thnks. The chart on SLW is still in tact as of this minute even with today's 4% decline. Should the stock break below this 15.5 mark I might be out as the uptrend would be broken which started in late August.

I hope this is the only time I am not following you guys...Up until today I have been 100% with you 2nd, Craig, EEMtrader...

I just had that funny feeling...

I will resume my normal riding of the coattails after this fake rally is over...

On the other hand if 15.5 can hold this could represent a nice entry point for long termers. Volume has declined on this latest downturn.

BAsketguy...you are definitely the sweetest guy I hardly know....:)

Speaking of 401k's, the State of California has removed the ability of being able to put your funds into a cash account that uses the LIBOR interest rate to calculate earnings as of January 22, 2008. The reason was it was not generating enough income.

My question is "Who was is not generating enough income for"?

EEMTRADER...

You sound like my wife...

Now if I could just put the toilet seat down and pickup my dirty clothes...slight ADHD

That would be NIRVANA for you and my wife..:^)

BG, I'm good if you are right, we keep hitting resisitance at 12,400 DJIA/28.30 XLF.
The two charts are nearly identical.

If we can break through 12,400 I'm joining the party.

I'm holding a small amt of SLW and would look to get more in the 14's. I expect to be in a bit of pain on what I have until then.

geckojb,

I knew they would be able to push it below the trendline, they can see it also and to them it looks like a fat juicy stop order. Same thing happened a few months back when gg did sell some shares. It was a great buying opportunity then, just as it is now. IMHO slw is the cream of the crop and they ain't gettin my shares. Fockers!

Wow has anyone been keeping an eye on WAMU (WM)? I expected a nice recovery once the balance sheet had some more transparency but this is an impressive run up. I wonder if the sharks are already circling here?

BG: OK..u r happy..and making money..breadth is turning positive ....ok the 30 min RSI wins today..the futures guys/gurlz are not leaving much for us stock folks...

WM is a takeover target...

SLW: the daily has set up a triangle pattern that should get resolved one way or another soon. I think it might break down, at which point I'd be interested in buying. The MACD has given the best buy signals for this stock and it is still recycling downward.

Back on the UYG train....we're through that little resistance. Amazing.

Good work BG!

Thanks guys...

I only want to hold this torch for one day...Then I am giving it back...

I AM NOT WORTHY....

Everyone have on their rally hats?

Just got stopped out of QID. I have greatly scaled down my trading as this market volatility will eat you alive.

I may reenter later in the afternoon as I expect GOOG will disappoint tonite. But again, small positions only.

dang..that bond conference call is turning the tape...

craig
yhoo didn't even drop a whole percent yet.
How tight do you set your stops?
I'm not even thinking of selling yet.

FWIW, might be wrong, but recall a year or two ago, SLW sold off similarly due to GG. Seemed to take more than a day, but then recovered nicely.

Last day of the month . . . someone mentioned possible window dressing by mutuals yesterday

Brazilian ag companies positive

Entered SLW at $15.50, and picked up some SlumBurger.

Yeah, I know. I look at it this way, I was in at what I thought was a decent basis, took half a position based on value/arbitrage. Amazon beats but disappoints on guidance, GOOG earnings coming today (?) into which I think it gets sold more....taking the sector (YHOO) with it and giving me a better entry. So I lost .50 a share, cut my loss (which I suspect may get bigger) and lie in wait for further opportunities. If not it was just another trade that didn't work.

Aurator

I beat you to the SLB...holding a nice position from earlier this morning @73.53.

Let's enjoy the ride...

Good Morning. Bill, you're allowed a little gripe here and there, we'll let ya as you have other good qualities. I will second the thanks from kp84. I can trade some mornings before out to work. Having a system...even a semi system gives me breathing room instead of the emotional trading system I used to use. Of special value is having pro's and talented amateur traders in the (chat) room who don't mind letting the apprentices know whats the thought behind the trade.
So thanks also to BG, Craig, eemtrdr,Sio2, 2nd, gecko.

To todays market....
ETFC is on fire
peace
Gray

2nd ave..are you seeing a bearish divergence on the QQQQ's? 5 min chart

Look at how SKF reacts here....

Very interesting as it finds support VS financials.

Lots of lies and misdirection happening on both sides of the Amabc/MBIA story. The potential hazard and losses keep going up to infinity while the company says things are fine, no worries. I can't believe the CEO and CFO are setting themselves up ala Lay and Skilling. What's the truth here? The public and shareholders deserve to know who's lying.

bg- congrats, that was as good a call as anyone i can remember...

fransix, seamus - quality silver juniors?

If the world lacks quality silver juniors, why does ECU keep falling after a PR doubling its resource?

Why is GIX also in a relative funk?

I don't get it ...

Your right on the high flyer GOOG.
I think long time investors are waiting for a chance to exit this one. Any bad news, and an equity as over valued as GOOG will hit the ground hard.
Good short candidate though.
I'll be shocked if yesterdays negative sentiment carries yhoo much lower. It still could follow to a downward market though.
As far as msft being interested in yhoo, there has been very little mega merger/acquisition going on lately unless your a bank trying to prop up a failing lender. Soft money is becoming harder so-ta-speak.

definitely congrats on a nice call, bg!

Missed the switcharoo working....
Craig, 2nd, EEMTRADER, what levels are you fellas looking to scale back on the opposite side of the hill?

SKF- opening a position at 97 and change...
QID- adding at 48.83...

Jock,
Here you go, little Grandich to cheer you up.
http://www.grandich.com/docs/alert_01-31-08.pdf

You may want to look EWM - Malaysia ETF. Nice chart and stop easy to define on 10d 10m. Maybe EEMtrader has a thought here.

reenzo..$SPX 1370 intraday low on aug 16th...is one spot...but watch the breadth for a heads up turn ..whatever you are trading ..

if it only pulls back to the 10 move ave...stay in the original direction..that will be long for the last hour..

Right about where 2nd called it. I sold the uyg there but haven't reloaded the ultras yet.
Missed a good shot at SKF. Can't see them all or act on all at once...

Stephanie Pomboy has a rare article for Minyanville.

She is expecting a market event soon to trigger deflation fears:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/gold-euro-Fed-ECB-bonds-yield/index/a/15736

Bill, good afternoon, and thanks, as always. Lying Hank warned yesterday in his little cheerleading post Ben session that the PPT was going to meet today. They apparently coordinated their moves in the futures markets through Treasuries trading accounts at Goldman and Morgan to coincide with MBIA's lying session today. There is no other explanation for the indexes running 1% in half an hour when we had a lousy jobs report, MBIA's numbers, not lies, mean that they are insovent, and when everyone inside that Banks are only lending off their anonymous Taffy credit 'facilities'. I call them tax payer subsidies.

RE: EWM...I echo geckjob..best looking chart of all the asian countries..great swing trading stock.

I grew up in Malaysia.among some other countries. love the beach and the roasted crab.

watch those election aftermath though.but it was a great swing trading stock for me last year.

have not followed it since..too much volatility in the states...

EEMTRADER - yeah, in the S&P 500, I'm watching that resistance as well (March and August lows of 2007). Also, on a monthly, the S&P is fighting to get above the 23.6% fib from the 2000 top and 2002 bottom. Amazing how these are overlapping, but then again, it's not the first time or will it be the last.

basketguy....you watching the 30 min chart of the IWM..think we have turned?...looked at the RSI....

Hi all. After my amateurish analysis of insider trades using canadianinsider.com, i tried to cleanse my soul by trying some more thorough analysis using SEDI.

I decided to use the juniors from Cannacords 'wish list' pdf posted last night, and made a few observations. Note that I skipped over some juniors where I didn't care for geopolitical exposure or the chart.

Seems that for the most part insiders just exercise their options and sell them. Kind of disappointing really. But occasionally a company has a savvy insider though who buys and sells regularly on the open market. From Cannacords wish list I found two such examples:

Grayd Resource Corp: gyd.v
--------------------------
Director John E. Robins, P.Geo, a principal of Hunter Exploration Group, has acquired almost 300K shares in last year in open market
trades, avg. price around $0.85, hit low of $0.38 at start of december, had a run up to $0.75 2 weeks ago, now at $0.58.

Hasn't Hunter Exploration group come up on this site before as being a very influential mining venture cap type company? Might lend this insider even more credibility.

Crosshair Exploration: CXX.v
----------------------------
Morabito, Mark Joseph, President and CEO, appears to have a lot of capital markets experience. Keeps a float of about 700K to 1,300K shares invested in the company and trades trends. Seems to know how to buy low and sell high in his company: steady selling up till last june around $3/share, started buying august 7th till end of august for total of 111K shares, avg price prob around $1.45. When share price hit $2, started selling all the way up to $2.85, and sold a little bit down to $1.75 about 2 weeks ago. Currently trading at $1.46. Currently holds about 700K shares, at the low end of his range.

I would be interested in Bills comments regarding this type of insider trading activity. Not quite the same as just buying in for the big news release and deep belief in the success of ones company. But it does feel like the CXX CEO believes $1.40 represents a sort of floor to the share price.

Jock, until recently i had been swamped with work and thus didn't sign up to the junior mining team. But if you are still looking, I'd be interesting in joining your crew.

g034: Looks like the resistance nailed it again...:)see the time on the $vix and the time it hit the resistance? and the breadth peak....

those computer programs are just amazing...

ProudPapa - I'd be PROUD to have you pitch in on the juniors project. I was just asking myself how to handle those new goodies on the Cannacord wish list. Pls. send me an email. Thanks in advance.

Jock at billcara.com

MBIA has concealed their exposure to CDO's and misled their investors when credit issues first surfaced. In one of their previous conference calls they only talked about subprime and said their exposure to it was low while not taking questions. Now they say they saw weakness in prime loans too and took steps to preserve capital. Why anyone believes these people is beyond me. I think there is a campaign to pump the markets before the truth can no longer be concealed.

What MBI has in its favor is that payouts just replace the payouts of the defaulting bond. So they have the capital to stay in business for a while and deny the reality that they will run out of capital.

Oh yes, there's also Bralorne(BPM.V):

http://www.bralorne.com/s/StockInfo.asp

And SanGold SAN.TO

Took a while to collect those, so take a look at all of them. Its a small list. RBCCM means Royal Bank Of Canada Capital Management.

Some of the problem in the junior space in the PM's is because the last cycle you had over-exaggerations of the PM content. That was prior to BRE-X. There are much stricter regulations now. Even so, Northgate ran into problems with their grade and regional interests when it came to permitting in B.C. B.C. has been a pro-mining province since 2001.

Many junior companies are now left with the legacy of the costly re-assessment of those deposits. By now, nobody wants those deposits because they are known not to have the next great dicovery, even though some of them could operate for 20 years profitably on a small scale.

Mines had gone into production with as little as 300k oz. @$500/oz and big companies like Barrick paying 10s of millions for a stake. All you needed on hand was a minor discovery and your share price would be sitting at $7. Now Barrick seems to be calling the shots, sitting back until major corrections and buying in to NovaGold. Barrick and Goldcorp. are clearly in a position to cherry-pick and RBCCM came up with the list of "most likely to be bought out."

Just the same, we are still seeing a tendency to exaggerate the importance of a deposit or the overall grade in the PM's. The companies which have scrupulously avoided making exaggerations on their claims or those which have run into the brick wall are now ignored. Their floats have greatly expanded in the process, making them even less attractive.

Companies like Red Back mining are doing well in the PM space, regardless of incredibly low grades.

EEM, Craig, g034 - Thanks, been watching and planning and testing the waters working on a swing trade plan w/ a mix of 1-2 day windows and a nibble here & there on longer term opportunitys.

EEM - you mention "watch the breadth" , what do you use to measure breadth?
(my wooden ruler stops at 12 inches ;-p)

g034,

S&P 500 (weekly) lows of 7/26/02 (776) to highs of 10/12/07 (1576) shows SP bounced off 38.2% retracement of 1268.

If 1268 breaks 1174 area seems a reasonable area of support.

Seamus, I think talked about SFD.

Jan 30, 2008 04:43PM

Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) Director, Paul Fribourg, continues his buying spree of the stock. Fribourg disclosed purchases of another 109,000 shares after the close.

Fribourg now owns 10,218,141 shares of Smithfield Foods. The purchases were made through a 10b(5)-1 plan.

Moab, the muni bonds are just as much in peril as the subprimes. Houses got reappraised the last four years and municipal budgets were drafted to count on the fat tax rises. This is the lie that they are desperately trying to hide. This is why the PPT, the New York insu commis are dancing the veils. Wilbur Ross will not ever in this lifetime buy MBIA or AMBAC - billionaires are not stupid. He will however play lying Hank's charade because he thinks that is helping America. It is hurting us. These bloodsuckers need to be flushed out - their greed has outgrown their meager talents many years ago.

Breadth : the way I use it for Intraday trending is the $NYAd..NYSE advancing issues / declining issues. ITs the water in the desert for mean.

I use it for intraday trend more than the actual numbers...its the first chart I watch.

If you are a swing trader...you may want to watch market overbought/oversold indicators . Remember in a declining daily trend..oversold can be more oversold..so watch whther it gets to a 2 or 3 standard deviation event before you jump...watch the intraday reversal..then enter.

Whether you use % of stocks above moving averages or the McClellan ocscillator...it helps when to enter trades..or up/down ratio..you have to pick your poison.

see the following:

www.indexindicators.com
www.mcclellan oscillator.com

Tom is good with posting data on the free section. Watch for small moves on the McClellan oscillator , a small change..less than 7 forewarns of a large trending day. Good time for day traders.

Index indicators..has breadth numbers and standard deviation.

Telestar - yes sir, it did, we have basic overlap on the 2000 highs and 2007 highs on a monthly. Overlaps can have more strength, so the fibs should work pretty well for a while.

Moab.. another thought.. Bill Ackman rode MBIA down from 80 to twenty with his short. MBIA says Ackman is a liar in their conference today. I say MBIA are liars, and Ackman is honest. The numbers are with Ackman.

Fransix -

GREAT candidate juniors you're posting. And VERY helpful historical perspective on pre-BRE-X.

Any chance you could help cover some of these new candidates for the "juniors project" .... the "family" of candidates for the Cara100 Juniors just keeps GROWING like weeds!

ProudPapa,
Prompted by your comment, I just did a little reading on Crosshair (CXX.V) and came across this NR. Though it's a uranium explorer, the news of finding gold in Newfoundland lends some excitement to this company IMO. I'm not interested in uranium explorers. However, Crosshair is planning on spinning off the gold play as a dividend. I have no position but, I'm thinking of buying it for the gold dividend shares and then selling (CXX.V). Just thinking about it.
http://tinyurl.com/2jjtw6

For a graphical look at weapons of mass financial destruction, check out this link:

http://www.geocities.com/arthurcutten/jesse.html

McClellan summation is also a nice comfort indicator in combination with the oscillator.

Telestar3d

Re SFD Was looking at it a few days ago and noticed Director purchases, but not today’s posted amount. SFD has had a nice 3 day move, RSI7 daily now 68.8. It was 12 on Jan 25th.

SFD one of the few, if not the only one, that has sold pork to China. As previously mentioned in the past here, China literally has a Pork Protection Team (PPT), is the 2nd largest consumer of pork lbs. per person, etc.

Just conjecture here, but in addition to challenges of blue swine disease, perhaps winter storms in China impacting production? No evidence, just thinking out loud.

May be worth watching during any pullback.

Re: Insider trading in TSX juniors

Having previously worked in venture capital in Silicon Valley for a number of years benchmarking fund performance for Canada's Thomson Corp, I recall the law firms always cautioned company management to set up distribution schedules, in order that there would be no claims of opportunism. These distribution plans are to sell a prescribed amount each quarter, lets say, and in Bill Gates case the market plans for...it provides liquidity in MSFT stock. That was the mid 90s, and I'm surprised that over 10 years later in Canada these insiders can seemingly act with impunity in an area where, if you were in California, you'd be running the risk of a shareholder suit.

Thanks again EEM, copied & pasted into my "study after work" items!

re MBIA: blogger Karl Denninger has obtained permission to republish Bill Ackman's 20 page letter on his blog. http://tinyurl.com/ytn8ru
Within the letter is a detailed summary of Ackman's research. Technical but informative.

Here's an interesting story.

There's a clear perception that Canadian mining companies are there to exploit local resources and manpower:

Govt won't issue permit for French Guiana project - Iamgold

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/article.php?a_id=125863

Capital One COF is up close to 50% from its lows. Its running into a ceiling on its 100 day moving average. I shorted it here. Defaults are not going down soon.

Moab...Thanks for the link to Ms. Pomboy. Question to all is...if we are entering a deflationary environment, then what would be the best investment? Deflationary environments are the worst scenario. Gold may not retain its value. Invest in food (soybeans, corn, sugar)? Cash?

Charlie Gasparino just called on the SEC to investigate the ratings agencies. Him and Rick Santelli are the only people on bubblevision that get the volume turned on my TV.

MOAB re: Capital One.. the most predatory of the credit card issuers. Dead man walking now.

Why are most of the gold stocks down, including the majors when the price of gold is still up today?

Are they just overbought and taking a breather or is this the start of the sector rotation out of gold for awhile.

Rob.

Deflation: seems to me cash will be king for a while then physical gold (not ETFs) as reflation debases everything paper. Gold miners will do well and their stock prices will catch up to that after the initial panic.

Mish has some views on this on his blog.

COF does look like a good short right now. What do you think about the daily momentum and relative strength? It looks strong right now. The %K stochastic looks like a triple high that could easily turn lower or shuffle in the high range?

Are you using any technicals or just the gut feeling that COF will be allowed to tank because they aren't involved in derivatives as much as the major investment banks?

Rob.

COF is certainly in serious trouble and the chart is straight up on short covering. The RSI(7) daily is at 80 and the weekly is oversold too. The odds look pretty good to me on this one.

Charlieatthelake, did you try skype again? I just got back in..after a few failed attempts. I had to click on Nexalogic header in the chat room before I got in.
Gray

Hi Bill,

Just read that GRMN is bringing out the Nuviphone - another contender in an increasingly crowded market. I am excited about this because I recently bought a handhold/auto Nuvi350 and found that despite many terrific attributes within the navigation capability it seems that it is still necessary to enter a street number and address, rather than the name of the locale ( e.g. Miller Hill Mall, Skydome, JFK airport etc.). I find myself going to my wireless laptop ( enter PDA phone with browser here if you have one ) and googling the site and getting the street address, then entering data into the Nuvi. I thought to myself, what if Garmin had a cellphone with their navagation interfaced with a browsable search tool that would cut and paste or otherwise transfer the address info on command into the navigation - presto, you hit GO and you are on your way! As I see it, navigation is a much more valuable tool than a camera or MP3 player and GRMN has a leg up on others in being positioned to create useful interfaces with a phone and creating huge revenue streams for such services. Go Garmin!

Interesting tidbit on Capital One. I have a Capital One rewards card that I am going to be using for all my monthly bills. I put all my recurring bills on a credit card then have the credit card setup to automatically pay off it's balance from my checking every month so I don't carry a balance. It lets me "double dip" on my credit that way. I get a positive hit for the bills being paid and another positive hit for the credit card activity. Anyways, I have all of this setup on a non rewards card at present and have been planning on switching it all over to the Capital One rewards card. I hadn't used the Capital One card since I had gotten it(a few months) and I got one of the "why aren't you using our card" letters in the mail. I called them up to make sure they wouldn't suspend my account for inactivity and instead the guy on the phone was throwing all kinds of incentives at me to keep ME from canceling the account.

I called to make sure my card wouldn't get suspended and before I hung up the phone I had gained +25% to the rewards I earn with my card. It was like they were desperate to keep people from canceling their cards.

3-month T Bills are plunging today to under 2%. This doesn't jibe with the equity markets.

Jock:

If you want I have access to Ink Research via TD Waterhouse and can send you pdf files of insider buying.

There's no way of telling which ones will ultimately provide, except that I follow simple rules of thumb.

1. Insider buying.

2. Infrastructure.

3. Primary exposure should be to gold. (I know - I have a base metal play in there, but that was because PGR.V optioned its gold property to Crosshair. Its an accident, I no longer wish to invest in PGR.V)

4. Responsible management of the float is probably key.

5. No hint of exaggeration of the deposit in any of the news releases and estimates.

6. Sustainable practises - meaning they're in for the long haul and don't intend to exploit resources and manpower and leave a garbage heap of drunken unemployed locals and poisonous leach pads.

7. Should have an overall grade of 6g/t or higher.

8. Employees are all from a mining background.

You take a couple of hundred million in capital and buy out all of the gold juniors with those qualities and create an intermediate gold company worth billions.

EEMTRADER...

Sorry had to run downtown...

I am swing trading this market right now...Off the lows I have been looking for a rally to about 1400-1410 in the S&P's

I watch the RUT, because I believe it is less manipulated like the other indexes...

Trying to follow the bouncing ball day to day would give me an ulcer...

At that 1400 level I will be looking to add some longer term short positions...

Finger Lakes at January 31

I don't understand it one bit. Minera Andes has gone down 30% roughly since announcing it doubled it's reserves at gold 780ish a while back? Annother I have cyp is down from .70 at the may high to .22 and Goldcorp bought 9% of the company back then for .65 I think? This is really nuts, is it manipulation via naked short selling or just doubt of gold continuing at these levels? I haven't a clue.

BG..IWM is leading the market..approaching the days high..si...1400....today? dang ...you must have faith in those job numbers....

EEMTRADER...

Not today, but in due time...:^)

No faith in the number, just faith in HB&B to run up this HUGE wall of worry...

Look at how NEGATIVE the news was today...and what happened..

I have learned to tune out the news ...and go against my gut...

BG...ah ok...that MBIA news is supposedly good...

I put in reruns of HBO ROME....always preferred Atia to that CNBC money honey..or

Gladiator..something dashing about "father to a murdered son, husbad to a murdered wife and I will have my revenge in this life or the next.."

Strength and Honor.

Moab, bond traders know that the markets are being run up today by PPT in coordination with MBIA, as lying Hank announced they would be meeting today. Also, the fund boys need to mark up the numbers on the last day of the month. Watch what happens tomorrow - bonds don't lie.

Paul Volker endorsing Obama. Says we need a fresh start.

EEMTRADER..

MBIA news not good, but the perception is "Oh Don't worry somebody will bail them out...They have too....

When that bailout does not come That's when it will fall...Or the downgrade, which has not happened yet

This is what I think people are focusing on...Officer Edward Chaplin said the bond insurer has sufficient cash on its balance sheet to cover its needs over a two-year period..

Thank you for the clarification Bill.

Very helpful.

Basket, Chaplin is lying. Their offshore protection is on the books for 40 bil - nonexistent in real life - Channel RE. They have reinsurance lines with Ambac - two snakes eating each other from the tail.

The real scandal and the one they want you to miss - Municipal bonds are going to start defaulting! This is the red herring lie that 'sub-prime' has been for the past year. Everyone who bought their home the past two years is now underwater - this is not a sub prime issue! The municipalities are counting on taxes on those inflated valuations - they will not get those taxes. The house of lies is there, if you want to see it.

Jock: If you are interested, you can measure every gold junior against this long term chart. Simply place all of the variables into Stockcharts.com in exactly the same way:

Biggie chart posted on flickr

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=2221382592&size=o

The chart is indicating a growth spurt once treasury yields decline against 2yr. bonds.

I could be 180˚ wrong on this issue, because it runs contrary to the consensus opinion that gold will outperform silver, and that a steepening yield curve means a decline in this market.

Homebuilders and their relateds such as Cemex and USG are flying high today. However, SRS is just modestly down. Isn't SRS a proxy for shorting real estate? It doesn't seem to be too closely correlated to it to me. Not today at least.

Scaling into QID here. (48.55)

cptc announced the sale of 40 turbines to a repeat european customer. texas now is cheap manufacturer. the shareprice has not moved on the news - and it should.

I hate days like today where I'm too busy to monitor this site continuously. Came back to find an incredible amount of good material that I could only scroll through. I know what I'll be doing tonight! Thanks everyone.

eemtrader...I like that ...Strength and Honor.
Is that like Social equity thru free markets?
gg

"To re-state my earlier point, I expect the central bankers to be dropping rates during Bear markets. I am not encouraged by it."

The cheap money is the engine that has driven all the markets. Stockmarkets. Housing. Auto.

Its just more out in the open since Paulson took over the Treasury. Almost obscenely out in the open.

By the way, Bill......

Thanks.

Sold half of my FNC.V at 1.78 to get back to single weight.

...may I second Maggy's thanks? All the best to you, Bill.

Photogray...you have a great website.Strength and honor is a line from the movie Gladiator.

I grew up ..in various countries that have serious social inequities.When I came back to the states...this is stil the best system. ( Uh ..it has slightly shifted off center, but change is coming and my money and volunteer work is supporting that change )

I have learned to thrive despite the inequities...from being a busboy in college ..to peddling my company to venture capitalists...to investment bankers that were more interested in fees and exercisisng their green shoe, rather than supporting the stock with research.

Throughout all that..I look for an edge..to learn the system, not whine about it, capitalize on it, and when the time is right..do what I can to change my part of the world in it.HB&B will get their billions, I just want my millions

Markets...due to human nature...may never be fair..fairer is a good improvement already. :)

I dont believe money = power like the posts from the other day...or filthy rich..I hear that often from people who have not sacrificed, worked, gambled their life savings, lost and recovered and moved on to a better position, and a better appreciation of what wealth can achieve.

I have been broke and wealthy is better.

Money is not bad, its the meaning we attach to money , wealth or freedom or taking it personally when we are trading. :)

I like this site..beacuse it was the first site that showed me anything useful in self directed trading. All the EBITDA and EV in mergers and acquisitions didnt help me manage my own money effectively and consistently. Imagine that!

I am not one for intellectual discussions , just not good at it and find nothing practical in it.

What I respect and admire..is the willingness of practical individuals to take responsibility and capitalize on it. And for that ..I am more than willing to support where I can in these efforts.

I harbor deep suspicion of people that do not invest their personal money directly, but dispense advice. Thats what makes this site uniquely useful to me.

I offer what little I have on this site beacause the growing pains are huge..and the time to master it...too long. and its a race between capital and experience.

I am way too chatty today...cheers and nice to meet you..just introducing myself a little more in this world of monnikers. :)

Thank you EEMTRADER. I recognized the quote. I like the meaning even if part is just hopeful. I like the system here also. And, while never wealthy in things or money - and a dollar ain't nothing but a tool- I can look out the window and see water, I mostly like my work and I can appreciate people across economic strata based on their personal attributes. We do not hear gunfire. We do not search for water. My children have a good work ethic and are good people. Man, heres a full blown gratitude list if I ever heard one. I too am too chatty at times.
Thanks Bill. I read and mostly understand. The various suggestions about a pay option or donation button come-at least from me out of gratitude and the unwillingness or distrust of "free advice". Anybody recognize TANSTAAFL?
took profit closed out of ETFC and GLW. Looking to close WAG, GE and scaling back into skf
peace

I'm no TA expert, but looking at the Dow's recent head & shoulder pattern, shouldn't we see it rally back to the neckline that was broken? Then likely a resumption of the downtrend?

I cant remember the name of the little dude on CNBC who reports on tech earnings...but no matter what GOOG reports after the bell...im going to count how many times he uses the words

BLOW OUT

SENSATIONAL

IMPRESSIVE

INCREDIBLE

Someone has to buy that dude a Thesaurus....

I have a short position in GOOG not sure if Ill hold into the close...still looking wounds on short in AMZN and CME today :(

I have been following CAE Inc ( CAE.TO , CGT.N)for a long time. It will report its 3rd quarter earnings shortly and I anticipate earnigs of 0.15-0.17 for the quarter giving a fiscal year end EPS growth of 25%+.
This gives a peg of 0.7 and an end March 2008 stock price of Cdn $16.00.( curently Cdn$11.40)
CAE is the world leader in flight simulator design and manufacturer and pilot training.
I read this blog daily and feel I owe this community what I believe is beneficial to you.I am long CAE and not a day trader. Please do your own due diligence.

Regards

So the short-term positives for the market are almost all behind us now:
--the State of the Union speech and more debt
stimulus package
--the typical rally into & just after the FOMC
announcement
--the asset managers' committees who meet
after the FOMC decision and buy the next day
--the typical month-end rally that occurs

While the major averages all show nice upmoves today, the number of very weak stocks is expanding once again--a stealth deterioration in the underlying strength of the market. With the number of very weak stocks outnumbering strong stocks, the upside is once again capped. My estimate is that the existing market downtrend will begin to renew itself by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Stay tuned!
JW
http://www.2globalmarkets.com

p.s. the 3-month U.S. T-bill rate has dropped 20 basis points today to under 2.00%!

L O N G time reader of this board, first post. Thanks to all especially Bill for the continued education. I'm an EX HB&B bond trader who finds it much more interesting to trade for myself than the institution. This community has really helped me to start off 2008 in the right direction.

Comment: The trade for me is usually 2 days out to 2 weeks.

Scaling into shorts now DXD,SDS,QID,SKK

LONG: GLD

the $SPX is approaching yesterdays high again..watch what happens..and trade accordingly and keep an eye on the clock...still have time for anything to happen..:)

Photogreay:
No such thing as a free lunch
Robert Heinlein
Moon is a Harsh Mistress
Right?