Bill, great points.I believe we are going to see a selloff after the Fed. Then we will watch the support/resistance points. Check out Byron Wien's view on here, it leaked in the press yesterday, just scroll down, I posted it on my morning market update.
http://wallastoninvestments.com/byron-wien-on-gold-oil-and-cotton

Good morning.

It's a busy one for the Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

DIS - to Buy @ Pali Research
ERTS - to Outperform @ Bear Stearns
NKE - to Overweight @ JP Morgan

Downgrades:

YHOO - to Hold @ Oppenheimer
YHOO - to Hold @ Citigroup

New Coverage:

SNDK - Neutral @ UBS

Target Price Lowered:

GS - $265 to $260 @ Sandler O'Neill
GS - $250 to $235 @ UBS
YHOO - $30 to $20 @ Cantor Fitzgerald
YHOO - $36 to $26 @ UBS
YHOO - $30 to $24 @ RBC
YHOO - $41 to $33 @ AmTech Research
YHOO - $34 to $31 @ BMO

-------------------------------------------------

"Luck is the meeting of preparation and opportunity."

Hi,

Yesterday I came across an interesing post at Mish's Website, in which he shows that the US banks reserves are in the tank.

Recommended reading:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/01/bank-reserves-go-negative.html

Cheers,

Etrade looking good this AM.
Maybe people believe the company hype of "positive change."

CTSH is also trying to stay above the red line for the last 2 weeks. I suspect the short interest has tempered some what.

Yahoo taking it on the chin, although not as bad as pre-market.. yet.

Bill, be careful!
Even though freedom of speech is a "given" in the USSA. Education of the working poor about the inner workings of the chosen elite is a no..no..

Bill, let's hope your site doesn't have a meltdown about the same time the financial system does. Come to think of it, I had to choose one to keep it would be yours.
Question, is there anyone who is perceiving a positive outcome to all this? All this being banks in trouble, Fed seemingly on an inflationary course and the U.S seemingly addicted to asset bubbles and inflation? What I mean to ask is, okay, the Fed is about to ride to the rescue (or at least that's what we think). In the end, is there any positive result from it?

FXP - went short at $100. Strange gap up if you ask me.

The positive outcome for all this mess may be an America with less hubris, using less of the world's precious resources with citizens adjusted to use what they need and focus more on values other than their pocketbooks....it will not be a pretty adjustment, true, but necessary. Think of our children, their children, etc.

Hello All:

Whatever the 'market's' reaction to the FOMC decision...watch for the immediate reaction, the counter reaction..and then another reaction to the counter reaction.

Count 3 moves if you decide to trade. Let volume be the guide, and...there is always tommorow.Plenty of opportunities to trade...after 11:30AM PST ..yes?

No Cut .25 cut .50 .75...

I does not matter...The market has had a nice run off the lows..I am taking some profit off the table and adding a small number of short positions..As Bill has stated It does not matter...This gives everyone a reason to sell..

Now the sale I believe will be short lived and we will rally back...A nice head fake to bring new bears on board then crush them

Traders market..Anyone care to Dance?

Excuse me BBCmoney: How well someone brings up their children, really has nothing to do with how much money they have ..you think?

2nd,
Sorry, systems failure. Thanks for the update last night.

I still hold SKF (hedged this AM) and sold my miners except WGW.

Dabbled in MOS on this AM pullback, also SGP.
A few GLD on the dip.

Hi,

Regardless of each person's investment strategy, in light of the toal absence of remaining reserves in US banks (cfr. fed data), I am convinced that, once again, Bill is absolutely right:

"Is there any doubt that the gold price is going to advance (...)?"

That is why I am long gold and will not be surprised to see 1.000 US wooden nickels for gold during the course of this week.

Have a good one,

Cheers,

Reposting something I put on yesterday's discourse for today's general commentary:
-----------------------
sio2,
Thanks for the details. I was hoping it was as simple as that.

Here is a trade I did yesterday as a test.

Let's see if my math is correct.

BZH - up 60% in last week or so, so I figured another big move down or further up is likely around the FOMC

Trading at 8.68, Feb 10 strike chosen.
Premium paid: 2.05 (.65 for C, 2.05 for P)
Sure profit +/- 2.05 (23.6%)?

Seems too big an expectation?

However, the stock dropped 0.40 / 4.6% and position showing 25.00 profit so far. To get in and out of trade (1 contract), I will pay $11.80 in commissions, so total outlay is $216.80.

So, check me if I am wrong, but it looks to me like at $25/$216.8, the position is showing an 11.5% profit in one day off a 4.6% move in the underlying?

If so, me likey likey.
If no, I need to go back to the Shrek school of math.

EEMtrader, there is another popular trade making the rounds. You would go long a high quality broker like GS and short the weak sister say BSC or C. Once the Fed decision is made, close out the loser and ride the winner. Has anyone tried this?

Bill has commented on occasion about a possible retracement in the price of Gold, perhaps to the mid-$700s. In the light of recent price movements (and yet another generous Fed rate cut this afternoon), do other readers of this blog also expect a retracement sometime in the next 2-3 months, or will it be a vertical stairway to heaven from now on? What do y'all think?

GEckojb..good morning...GS is one of my favorite stocks to trade... I am going to stay neutral till some time passes after the FOMC announcement..there will be opportunities to trade when GOOG reports as well...

Wasnt Finerman on fast money long GS, short LEH ? Never understood buy and hold GS no matter what price...the way she describes it...

Tupperware got a nice bounce this morning. Guess the advance is based on an expectation that we'll all be eating more leftovers in the foreseeable future.

bg- staying neutral sounds good->at djia 12,500 it's too hard to call...capital preservation trumps playing with no edge, so i guess i'll be sitting this one out...

Of the emerging markets India is the one and only chart that remains in an uptrend. FXI continuing to breakdown and in downtrend. I have been very interested in India for some time and in longer term accounts have been overweighting India and underweighting most other developed and developing markets. I will maintain India overweight until such time that the chart breaks down.

Schrott.

Gold is going to get thrown out like the rest of equities...When the selling kicks into high gear...The old throw the baby out with the bath water...

I have been saying for a few days now..Bear market rallies are short but brutal..You could say the 800 plus points off the lows already is pretty impressive, but I think WE AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET.

Aftet the market spasam today, I believe the market will resume it's rally and so will gold...

I have a 1000.00...Maromatics looking for 1050.00..From 975.00 and up I will be lightening up on my gold positions...

Remember what Bill has been saying for years..Who is the last to dance? One more push higher then bar the doors...

New buying opp ahead

EEMTRADER, how well someone brings up their children does - to some extent - depend on their social/economic environment in most cases. I appreciate the point you are making, but I would hope that you appreciate my point as well....trade well, BBC

reenzo,

Your original position when the stock was $8.68 will be profitable if the stocks goes over $12.65 or below $7.35 (strike +-2.65). It required a move of 46.3% to be profitable (too high for me). Keep in mind that you must use the worse price between bid/ask to make your calculations. For example, currently for the C10 you must pay $0.30, but you only get $0.20 if you sell (33% loss right away). The spread is too high on BZH. Daily fluctuations will be normal. If the stock does not move, you will lose most or all premiums paid, at least the time component. Stick with highly liquid stocks.

I would not personally be seeking a consensus opinion on gold spot prices right now.

BNN interviews an analyst from Kronus Futures. He says the headlines for tomorrow will be:

- if the Fed cuts .25, "Market disappointed with Fed cut, stocks sells off"

- if the Fed cuts .50: "Market does not believe Fed can fix market, stocks sell off".

SiO2,
Thanks again - back to Shrek math school!

bigwad,
etrade, a former cara 100 until it was disclosed they were into to the subprime game, is up over 10% just today... pretty good for a business that will be lucky to break even this year...
almost looks like a pump and dump... but of course it isn't because that would be illegal, right? I noticed Credit Suisse lowered their target to $2.50 down from $4 at the end of last week.

SiO2

Sell off in gold stocks also?

Can someone explain to me why govt's need to supress the pog? What's the issue at hand if Gold keeps rocketing up? Is it simply inflation expectations rise amongst the public?

WGW

Leisa’s site (theperplexedinvestor) earlier this week reference the Nasdaq beta site, where among other things, you can see institutional holdings percentage in a stock. I’ve checked this information in the past from other sites, but not recently.

Interesting to note WGW only has 1% institutional ownership. Little more promotion there could go a long way. A quick check of some other juniors showed ownership of 8% to 62% (NG). Majors of course have a lot more as they certainly offer more liquidity. Quick check showed figures of 55%-97% for some majors.
******************
bigwad, watermelon, re Etrade rumors on the street about buy out by one of the competitors

geckojb, one reason I can think of off the top of my head to suppress the price of gold is that it is competition for the fiat money.

Current straddle plays from earlier today for QQQQ, SPY, and DIA, for Feb, March, and June.

Lowest cost today, pre-Fed mega news:

SPY: 4.57%
DIA: 4.75%
QQQQ: 5.99%

List at: http://nexalogic.com/istranglesjan.html

"Can't we all see that the next five years at least is going to be a business war between Softie and Google?"
Bill, I believe that content is king and innovation trumps invention from a profit perspective. Television and the internet will become one. Softie and Google will compete for the strong media brands. Long-term, I see Softie and Google gobbling up whole or part media assets from Disney, Time-Warner, and News Corp. It wouldn't surprise me to see Westinghouse and GE also relinquish their media holdings to this game. It's a battle for our eyeballs.

Was that a pump and dump on Yahoo or what? From 23 to 34 to 19 in the space of a few months. Looks like it is in the accumulation zone.

Re: raising the margin requirements on gold

http://tinyurl.com/2q658s

On Nov. 5, 1987, both sides agreed, the customers were given one hour to increase their cash deposit with the broker to $15,000 from $2,600 for each of dozens of gold option contracts. When the customers failed to do so, the broker liquidated their positions, which the customers said led to heavy losses. Customers are ordinarily given at least a day to meet a sudden change in margin requirements.

LIBOR is only pricing in a .25 rate cut today. The one month is at 3.28 and the three month 3.24 and also be aware that the term Auction yesterday came in at 3.12%. The term auction is supposed to be a discount to market rates to help the banks.

With this information it looks like a .25

In that case GOLD may top out soon for the near-term.

And the Dollar is showing strength too, dipping to 75.34 this morning and currently up at 75.52.

It may all just be a ploy to lower our expectations so that if they do cut another .5 or .75 the market and GOLD will rally hard.

Rob.

Bill,
I'm really glad you have excellent traffic. You deserve it because you tell it like it is. Very rare in today's world of spin. Congrats!!

Rob.

Bill,
Why would a cash rich company like msft want to by yhoo's search engine and click advertising?
Wouldn't they be dollars ahead to complete the development of their own mega search engine rather then buy a developed search engine and merge the two?

I just speculated 100 shares on yhoo just in case your scenario, and many others on the internet, is in the cards.

And why wouldn't goog step up and make the mega search engine if regulators would permit it?

It seems to me, the only companies msft bought in the last 2 years are just little tech companies they can mold into their company with out much business/accounting flex.

YHOO
from Seeking Alpha site.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/62255-yahoo-too-late-to-dump-no-reason-to-buy

It's looking less and less likely that my last limit order for SKF is going to fill. *sigh*

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Jan. 30, 2008) -
Geologix Explorations Inc.(TSX VENTURE:GIX)(FRANKFURT:GF6) is pleased to announce that it has arranged a private placement offering (the "Offering") of up to 6,000,000 units (each a "Unit") at a price of $2.40 per Unit. Disclosure: No position.
http://tinyurl.com/3xnkq3

re GOLD trend, what I keep revisiting in my own mind are the longer term cycles of hard assets vs paper assets (last chart on the following link)

http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

The trend from 1980 to 1999 was bearish for gold and other commodities but reversed course and has been trending back from its 1999 lows toward 1:1 parity vs DOW (ala 1980). If the trend continues gold will climb much higher and the DOW will likely fall to meet it or at least come somewhere close, say 3:1 ratio or less sometime in the next ~5 yrs. So I am trying hard to ignore the current high value of gold and the daily ups and downs and focus on the trend. I'm guessing this toxic deriviative sludge reported by bis.org has the potential to cause a much larger downside than a simple recession would indicate, which seems to fit the trend just fine.

Examples of define risk for day traders...

see AAPL 5-day 5 min chart, Ebay 10-10

bigwad,

Re Yahoo and Microsoft 'synergy'.

In fact, they (MSFT) potentially have a *very* good reason. Established market share. Customers. It's not about the search engine. That war is over, and Google won. It's about the next turf war, wherever that may be fought....and the potential that a marginalized (relatively speaking, of course) Yahoo may end up being a Google target itself in the future, with grave repercussions for Microsoft in terms of perception.

Oracle has been successfully doing a similar thing - extending its customer base and eliminating the competition via acquisitions. the BEA acquisition is just the latest example. We are talking 100% product overlap...but it still made business sense purely for the customers brought on board.

geckojb,

Re the supression of gold price go to www.gata.org

Fred, Aussieontop, et. al. re GIX.V Geologix

Private placement warrants seem less generous than other private placement deals I've seen (usually 1/2 warrant per share bought). Is this because they are farther along in development of San Augustin than are other juniors?

"Each Unit will consist of one common share (each a "Common Share") and one-quarter of one Common Share purchase warrant (each whole warrant being a "Warrant"). Each Warrant will be exercisable to purchase one Common Share at a price of $3.20 per Common Share for a period of 24 months following the closing of the Offering. Should the average closing price of Geologix's Common Shares after the four month anniversary of closing equal or exceed $5.00 per Common Share for a period of 10 consecutive trading days, Geologix may give the warrant holders notice that the Warrants must be exercised within 20 trading days or the Warrants will terminate."

JRPauley at January 30
I agree and look at the platinum, copper, and rhodium charts for an example of how overbought gold might become at times. Re the dow:gold ratio, yes I follow it well and note that there was an hs top in the ratio back at the dow 2000 peak,so far the price objective for the ratio has followed fib from the breakout point very well.

Jock,
I'm beginning to become a fan of GIX based on its long-term prospects. I'm gunshy however because it hit a low of 1.25 in September and is relatively thinly traded. I tend to bottomfish as opposed to trade momentum so, I'm looking for a significant pullback before I can bring myself to pull the trigger. I don't mind if I miss this train and if it goes up forever. I hope everyone here prospers on their trades.

Speaking of GATA...
GATA's advertisement in The Wall Street Journal
http://www.gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal
This advertisement, sponsored by GATA and costing $264,426.26, is scheduled to appear in The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, January 31, 2008.

Fred - best of both worlds in buying juniors?

I'm finding there are quite a few juniors which are cheap on a valuation basis AND on a technical basis.

The ultimate is being below its monthly bollinger band, while undervalued on a value basis.

It seems stocks don't stay below their monthly BB's for long. Find a basket of such buys, each being a small % of your portfolio of "juniors" and maybe one can buy and then relax and wait !

(GIX is nowhere near its monthly BB.)

Or so I hope -

The 35th G8 summit is to take place in Toyako, Japan 7 - 9 th of July 2008.

ps re dow gold

There is an hs top that formed from 1962 - 1972 which looks very similar(fractal) of what has happened since 1998 using the 98 and 200 lows for a neckline.

http://www.chartsrus.com/chart.php?image=http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/Dowau1970.gif

If anyone notices any website problems today, let me know via jeff at billcara.com. I've found a few problems so far, but more eyes will certainly help. Thanks!

Opened puts on COF and LEN. Hold puts on XHB and XLY. Ticking off the shopping list.

"What in YOUR wallet?"

That should have been "What WAS in YOUR wallet?" as a salute to Capital One. The emphasis I used was removed due to HTML.

Bought FRO and TNP for energy sector holdings that are out of the USD with great dividends, near the recent lows. TNP popped 8% today.

Yesterday it was the refiners. The situation with oil supply is far worse than generally accepted, IMHO, due to high decline rates of the major oil fields.

Read bicycles are now prohibited in parts of Shanghai. India's TATA brings out $2500 new car. The demand is rising strongly and the supply will flatten as peak extraction rate is reached. Perhaps 2008 will be the year peak oil replaces the smoke smoke screen of global warming has the hot topic.

Aurator: In the wallet: Straddles on DIA and SPY, plus puts on BAC, ABK, AMD, tons of natural gas.

Now, getting the popcorn ready and will just watch the show.

Our research note on today's FOMC rate announcement has been published on the GlobalMarkets' website. You can check it out at:

http://tinyurl.com/yuxpxh

regards,
JW

Bill - I know that you probably have already thought of this, but perhaps GATA's computer specialist might be willing to share system attack solutions with yours? Surely, they have been under attack for some time now.

"You might want to be scouring the insider trading filings to take note of the companies whose management is buying at this point."

Still learning here..where would I look?

isiah: edgar-online.com

Bill-

Political implications can be broad if/when things really hit the fan. Of course the outcome does not always meet the voters expectations

http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/3476271.html

I have been stretched and have not been able to keep up with your thoughtful market commentaries as much as I'd like. Good work as always.

Trying to avoid 'disaster myopia' myself AND avoid becoming overly negative... balance. Good luck.

www.secform4.com - is also a great one to track insider trades.

EEMTRADER

Thanks!

Thanks to Bill and Maromatics on Gold Suppression. Here are a few things I found from various websites.

"To be blunt, government suppresses Gold for the same reason that the East Germans - under orders from the USSR - built the Berlin Wall in 1961. This was not done to keep people out - it was done to keep them IN - inside the system which the East German powers that be needed to exist, that is".

"The motive to suppress gold is to keep interest rates low by deceiving the bond market about actual inflation levels. Lower gold price=lower inflation=lower bond prices=higher stock market. It also means the supporting of the US dollar".

pog is short for????????????

thanks sv

pog=price of gold

SV,

Price Of Gold.

Fed policy statement should be at this link around 2:15EST:

http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080130a.htm

or maybe here:

http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080130b.htm

My bet is that the statement will be posted to one of the links above before a reference to it appears on the page below:

http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/2008monetary.htm

Choose one:

Gold is to central bankers as sunlight is to:

a)beach babes
b)houseplants
c)cockroaches
d)big fat cats stretched out on the carpet

Seriously, you can see from comments by the Fed that their view of managing inflation is really managing the "perception" of price inflation. Gold reveals what's going on with a currency. Central bankers HATE gold.

where is a good easy site easy for canadian companies

thanks sv

Mike

I want to say cock roaches....But I got a picture of the BEACH BABES in my head...Thanks for taking my mind somewhere warm and BEAUTIFUL...

HELLO

DOES ANYBODY KNOW OF A WEB SITE FOR INSIDERS OF CANADIAN COMPANIES BESIDES SEDI

THANKS SV

sv,
You can try Canadian Insider for insider trades. http://tinyurl.com/ysev4t

Bill

Thanks!

Can anyone suggest how I can learn about the FOMC decision in real-time? Their web site is so overloaded I cannot even get a single page refreshed there...

Thanks!

Looks like a 0.5% cut.

More gold production news.

Production down.

Expenses up 15% (article says expenses up 8% but then says costs went from 395/oz to 455-470. I'm no math genius, but that seems like more than 8% to me.)

From the AP:

NEW YORK - IAMGold Corp. said Wednesday its gold production climbed sharply last year, though it said several joint ventures performed poorly and provided an outlook for less production and higher costs in 2008.

IAMGold's production rose 50.1 percent to 965,000 ounces of gold in 2007, up from 642,000 in 2006. The company had forecast higher full-year production of 1 million ounces last February.

The Canadian precious metals company said its Sadiola, Yatela, Tarkwa and Damang operations produced almost 20 percent less gold last year than in 2006. It expected some of those losses, but also blamed poor grade and recovery and bad weather for the declines.

IAMGold also noted that its largest operation, Rosebel, posted a 10 increase in production during the fourth quarter over the previous one. It did not say how well Rosebel performed for the full year or compared with the year-ago quarter.

IAMGold expects its gold production to fall 4.7 percent in 2008 to 920,000 ounces. It also said it expects about an 8 percent increase in costs due to oil prices, royalties and a stronger Canadian dollar.

The company forecast costs of $455 to $470 per ounce this year, compared with its outlook of $395 per ounce in 2007. It did not provide actual cost figure for 2007.

David,

I know my broker (ThinkOrSwim) sends out a message via the trading software when it comes out. While it's probably slower, money.cnn.com always puts a banner up after a rate cut, and that's probably only delayed by a minute or two. Otherwise, any financial TV or radio station should have it (Bloomberg TV/Radio, CNBC, etc.). I know all these sources are second-hand, but they are all probably faster than an overloaded FOMC website. :)

Jeff

Korvus,

nice, CNN just posted confirmation of
a half point cut in rates to %3

Gold has hit 930 again according to Kitco.

FRED

THANKS FOR INFO

SV

sv:
canadian quotes - lots of links for news, charts, financials, watchlist, etc.,
check out
www.globeinvestor.com

There must be either alot of trades going through now or alot of manipulation because the live feed is coming through choppy.

Anyone else experiencing this?

Rob.

Rob...

Lotsa shorts trying to cover and run

To quote Kaimu, "the dollar is the stock of the USA" and gold is the only clear way to judge the worth of that stock in real terms.

Looks like we are headed to 1440 on the S&P. IMO this is setting up a tremendous shorting opportunity as speculators are re-emboldened. The Fed will be out of ammunition soon and the Bernanke put will be history. Let's hope the markets recover before then otherwise it will get really ugly.

Confidence in markets, the oligarchy, the stock of the USA, and the Fed to save speculators is the key.

Gold rockets to $932.50 on the cut.

Well, there goes the SP through the H+S neckline that's been holding for the past few days.

JOEY

THANKS FOR INFO

SV

All,

Re gold: keep your hands off the keyboard and wait for the Asians and Europeans to come into the market and start buying gold as hedge against the USD tonight.

Target for this movement is 1050, of which 1.000 can be reached this week.

Then, take proffits.

Cheers,

All,

Re gold: keep your hands off the keyboard and wait for the Asians and Europeans to come into the market and start buying gold as hedge against the USD tonight.

Target for this movement is 1050, of which 1.000 can be reached this week.

Then, take proffits.

Cheers,

From Reuters:

The cumulative 1.25 percentage point reduction in the benchmark overnight rate in less than two weeks ranks among the most abrupt rate-cutting sprees in the modern history of the U.S. central bank.

(Reporting by Mark Felsenthal and David Lawder)

What a roller coaster...into SKF @ 99.70 and SRS @ 106.70.

RISING COSTS FOR MINERS

A wise move by Barrick....gold for tires

JOHN PARTRIDGE
Globe and Mail Update
January 30, 2008 at 1:36 PM EST

Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. is so concerned about the worldwide shortage of the giant tires it needs for its massive mining trucks and loaders that it is lending a Japanese tire maker $35-million (U.S.) to help it finance a plant expansion.

Barrick, the world's largest gold miner, said Wednesday that it is lending the money to Yokohama Rubber Co. Ltd. as part of a 10-year agreement to secure the supply of “potentially more than $200-million” worth of off-the-road tires, at the rate of some 1,300 tires a year starting in 2009.

The tires retail for as much as $60,000 apiece, but the global shortage has seen them sell for as much as $300,000 each in Internet auctions, according to Barrick.

(That's the equivalent of more than 325 ounces of gold at today's price of $920 an ounce.)

Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. is so concerned about the worldwide shortage of the giant tires it needs for the massive trucks and loaders it uses at its mines that it is lending a Japanese tire-maker $35-million (U.S.) to help it finance a plant expansion.
Barrick Gold shares are up 53 per cent over the last 52 weeks.

Yokohama will use the loan to help finance a $50-million expansion of its Onomichi plant, near Hiroshima, including a new building, production line and related equipment, the mining company said in a news release. The tire maker also will deliver the tires directly to Barrick's mines and provide technical assistance to each site to make sure the tires being used there will have the proper rubber compound, tread pattern and so on.

“This is an innovative response to a worldwide tire shortage now facing the mining industry,” Barrick chief executive officer Greg Wilkins said in a news release.

With the mining and construction boom, demand for the giant tires has boomed, doubling since 2004 alone, Barrick said. But production has not kept pace, leading to shortages and price increases, and major manufacturers are projecting that the shortages will persist until at least 2011, the company added.

The shortages can be costly, according to Barrick spokesman Vince Borg.

“You've got these humongous trucks worth not $38,000 but $2.4-million or $3-million and if you don't have a tire, you park it, and that's capital just sitting there,” he said in a telephone interview. “You can put a used one on for a while, but you have to get a new one.”

Barrick also said that it spent a total of about $80-million on tires of all types in 2006, and that it currently buys about 3,000 of the giant variety each year. It said it expects that number to grow to about 4,500 a year by 2012.

Barrick expects to save money on its tire purchases from Yokohama, because it will be getting them at “direct-from-manufacturer pricing.”

Here is a link to the latest report on Gold activity sales and reserves worldwide from Societe Generale. Found it on www.bulliondesk.com
http://tinyurl.com/25mlcd

sorry for the typo www.thebulliondesk.com

Good day to all!

Ah, the volatility. Holding to the thesis of
more weakness in financials > looking for entry
into SKF > target price in my head was 95.00 after the 'immediate reaction' suggested by EEMTRADER > SKF to 96 then it rockets up 3 (is that the counter reaction?) > no justifiable reason to pick 95; just pure gut(this can be dangerous, I know)

So does that qualify as a 'stink bid'? ;^)

Stu

Out of HGD... out of the market.

I've been buying SKF in small chunks since about 115. I took a BIG bite at 100 and a second good sized bite at 97. I'm full now. I'll wait for reality to smack the market back down now.

Out of ctsh again....
Still in yahoooooooooooooooo

Can anyone explain why GTU is acting counter to the other Gold indexes GLD/DGL?

Wishing I had the gusto to fatten up that FXP short from this morning. Still holding short on FXP though - probably into tomorrow.

Also sold a portion of the CSCO Feb 25 calls I bought on Monday when CSCO was $24. Still holding some until closer to earnings (Feb 6th).

Because gold is not going up in CAD. It is the USD that is going down. Gains are in part an illusion. CAD jumped today after the announcement of the USD devaluation.

Watch for a big run up during the last 30 mins.

To make the Feds happy...

Anyone have a bid/ask on NOT.V?
Thank you!

NOT.V
4.28/4.31 CDN

NOSOF 4.31 4.37

Bid = 4.28 , Ask = 4.31

Re:
Because gold is not going up in CAD. It is the USD that is going down. Gains are in part an illusion. CAD jumped today after the announcement of the USD devaluation.

Posted by: SiO2 at January 30, 2008 3:09 PM

-----------------------------------------------

I don't expect Canadian interest rates to stay where they are for long. When they fall, gold/CAD ratio should rise, assuming all other factors remain neutral.

See Bloomberg piece here: http://tinyurl.com/2r83el

'The Bank of Canada lowered its main interest rate a quarter-percentage point to 4 percent on Jan. 22. In an emergency move the same day, the Fed cut its federal funds target by three-quarters of a percentage point, pushing the rate lower than Canada's for the first time in three years.

Policy makers will cut Canada's benchmark overnight lending rate to 3.25 percent by June, according to median estimate of 17 economists in a Jan. 22 Bloomberg survey. Borrowing costs will fall to 3.75 percent in March and 3.5 percent by April, according to the survey.'

Thank you Doug.

Hi all
report on bubblevision @ 3:10 about rumors circulating re bond insurers getting downgraded as earlier as today by Moody's etc.
accounting for pullback here

s/b "as early as"

Here's a couple of paragraphs from Henry C K Liu. He is writing a 5 part article titled: The Road to Hyperinflation.
As the dollar drops........

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JA30Dj02.html

"What has happened is a global devaluation of all currencies with the dollar as the lead sinking anchor in terms of purchasing power. The sharp rise of prices for assets and commodities around the world has been caused by the sinking of the purchasing power of all currencies. This is a trend that will end in hyperinflation while the exchange rate regime remains operational, particularly if central banks continue to follow a coordinated policy of holding up inflated asset and commodities prices globally with loose monetary policies, ie releasing more liquidity every time markets face imminent corrections."

"Fighting deflation with negative rates
Low and frequently negative real interest rates over long periods of time had created the debt bubble, the bursting of which resulted in the credit crisis of August 2007. Central banks are now responding to the bursting of the debt bubble by cutting interest rates yet again. Central banks seem to be letting unreliable incoming raw economic data on the previous month to drive interest rate policy which at best can only have longer-term effect. The addiction to negative real interest rates to sustain the debt bubble will eventually lead to a toxic financial overdose.

Lessons of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the protracted Japanese recession of the 1990s have left all central banks with a phobia about asset deflation, against which monetary policy of zero nominal interest rate can have little effect. Since nominal rates cannot go below zero, deflation, or negative inflation, implies positive real interest rates even as nominal rate is zero, causing central banks to lose their ability to provide needed economic stimulus by monetary means.

In a deflationary environment, borrowers will find it more costly to repay loans of even zero interest rate. The history lesson learned by central bankers is that when an asset-price bubble bursts with threats of deflationary recession, monetary policy therapy has to be dramatic, timely and visible to be effective."

Thanks BG!

Hey 2nd....what's your take?

I'm selling into this except SKF and my recent bargains (YHOO and SGP). Letting the BRK/B run. Added at 96.

Still have WGW/SLW and gold.

Sorry, added SKF at 96, not BRK/B. Dang....

Posted by: SiO2 at January 30

Gold:cdw has gone from 3.91 in 2001 to 9:41 to date,pretty much in line with the usd run, although lagging in % but is the descrepency an issue?
Otherwise it has broken out of a great looking ascending tringle 1.3/4 yrs old with a po of 10ish

Looks like the rally is over. Hope everybody got in/out as needed.

ZENOB..Rally not over..Just a little off the top of a 1000 pt rally off the lows in the DJIA futures..

Can't let us know it is that easy...Gotta make everyone feel like we are going to CRASH so they can run it up...

Freezing us...So we think IS THAT IT? Do we go down now?

The bullion price must not be allowed to get out of hand, because it represents a certain long standing geopolitical interest which has long been lost on the world at large. Much of what the credit expansion represented in the last 20 years is unravelling, though and the gold price advances as credit markets lose influence.

What purpose it serves to attempt to reduce any returns to junior gold companies by resorting to diebold-type controls on any appreciation is another question completely.

A sharp rise in gold along with a decline in the $US takes us to the very edge of disintermediation, that international settlements agreed upon many moons ago are no longer easily settled.

We are perhaps at a turning point which was set in motion not long after 1900, with the discovery of ~100m oz. of gold in Ontario and the great power and influence this would have lent the British Commonwealth so long ago. The math probably starts there, with the ensuing inflation and gold rush at the end of the deflationary boom of the 19th century. We are at the end of yet another deflationary boom, fortunate for not having a gold standard and an ugly depression.

At the moment, we are witnessing the emergence of gold bullion as a currency:

¥/$ daily

Stockcharts.com:

http://tinyurl.com/2wpfej

¥/$ weekly

Stockcharts.com:

http://tinyurl.com/2q8c3x

Short term outlook: the momentum should drop off in the gold spot price in the next couple of weeks, but silver is just starting into its seasonal strength. So I would watch out for silver to outperform as a confirmation.

Minyanville says there are reports that bond insurers will be downgraded after the bell. MBI is getting killed.

skf chart shows a perfect w from time george w started talking until market closed.

Stu/kp84:

Hope you did well going long the SKF...:).

Gasparino on CNBC said his gut tells him they may be downgraded as early as today. This is beyond bizarre. Why is he speculating? And why would the market sell off on what Gasparino thinks?

Just a brief note of appreciation for this site and the community it represents. I am a new trader and am delighted to begin my study in such good company. Thanks Bill.

Because for some reason people tell him stuff.
He breaks a lot of stories. I have no idea why.

Distribution

Hey All,

As per Bill's comments I dug round in my juniors bin and did a quick lookup of insider trades. I used www.canadianinsider.com which only gives last 10 trades, and am listing only those that showed some kind of trend (though 10 trades hardly makes a trend). I ignored options and warrants activity, paid most attention to open market transactions. Also note that i went down a list of miners i've had on my list for a long time, some of which i haven't followed much recently and am not endorsing.

Insiders more net Buying
Azimut, AZM.V (enough activity that i opened a position myself :)
Acadian Minerals, ADA.TO
Valgold, VAL.V, lots of buys by pinetree
Denison Mines, DML.TO

Insider more net Selling
Guyana Goldfields, GUY.TO
Pinetree Capital, PNP.TO
Continuum Resources, CNU.V
Alamos Gold, AGI.TO
IAM Gold, IMG.TO

This was a very basic analysis, and may not indicate anything. Just offered as a starting point.

Special mention: Nautilus Minerals (NUS.TO) had tons of options issued with strike price of $4-5.35 range (total value of $8.5 million), trading at $2.70 which it hasn't seen since 2006. Also has recent news release that they have $312 million cash in the bank which works out to $2.15/share.

Does such a large option issue indicate anything? Anybody follow Nautilus and have any comments on it?

If that was the rally then it was pitiful. Gotta give Bernanke something for his effort. I think that markets go slightly down in Asia tonight and gold goes up to $949. Then it gets reeled back to $931 tomorrow in the U.S. market. The U.S. market spins its wheels tomorrow (slightly down) until afternoon. Then HB&B steps in and buys financials giving Bernanke his payment. No science in my prophecy just thinking out load.

loud not load

I follow Nautilus but haven't looked at the options issuance. The thing with Nautilus is it actually has the discoveries and four major partners plus tons of cash. The market seems to doubt that they can put together the technology to get the ore off the bottom of the ocean, or just don't want to speculate in general.

Teck recently exercised 3 million $5 warrants, even though the market price was under $4 at the time.

The hoopla over Ben's rate cut was short lived, now we can get back to reality where we can ponder what bad news Ben and his pack of lapdogs know that would justify a 1.25 rate cut over a 9 day period. My guess it that things must suck more than the rest of us believed.

Thank you go34...love the one word warnings!
Hard to type while hitting buy or sell buttons....

I'm just being patient now. Rode up XLF by shorting a slighty heavier weight of the SKF and going long a good allocation of UYG. Covered the short, sold the UYG and bought a few more SKF at about 15:15 and now waiting for more financial selling and bond insurer downgrades.

Took profits into strength.
Long WGW, SLW, CHSCP, BRK/B and YHOO.

The Fed has no control over these unfree global markets anymore. The huge brokerage houses disguised behind the walls of banks are in control of the fiat dollar. With out computers these huge banks would have a lot harder time getting peoples retirement savings.
I'd almost wager, every CEO of every bank would love to hang a portrait of Bill Gates on every office wall in those ivory towers.....right next to those egotistical portraits of themselves.

Go home Ben, the banks will call again when they need another welfare check from the taxpayers. You've been moooooned Benjamin!

EEMTRADER,
wish I could say I rode that leg up on the SKF
from 95ish to the close.
Unfortunately, I couldn't stay in front of the screen, hence the limit order. Not a good time to walk away!

The past several weeks for me have been a lesson
in pyschology - the market's and mine.

Until tomorrow..

Stu

Tbar, not sure what CDW is or what context you are referring to. For gold in CAD, I was referring to 2007. I have plotted this many times, there has been little or no gain for CAD holders, and if you held GLD you pretty much lost money. This really depends on which day you do the math vs the exchange rate. GLD is a very bad investment for Canadians (or Brazilians).

Straddles: sold both SPY and DIA Calls sides after the announcement, had lots of difficulty getting the real-time feeds. I am keeping the puts just because there is nothing that will convince me that this market is going up. Risky, yes.

Stu: If I may..dont guess the market direction.!!

Just trade with the trend between support and resistance zones. Let the market tell you direction...dont guess...trade with a 'no mind' (thats from the last samurai movie):).

i.e.e dont think too much, think when you are doing your homework at night or pre-market, not during trading.

Try This. On your monitor...put up 3 charts.
1) $SPX
2) Breadth chart like $ NYAD or $NYSE advancing issues, add a 10period moving ave on a 3 or 5 min chart.
3) The chart of what you are trading, I guess the XLF.

Before market moving events. take the $SPX chart ..start with the weekly time frame . Draw all key resistance and support zones. the nearest resistance zone today was around $spx 1385ish.

Go to your dailies..nearest resistance..1380ish, go to a 5 day 5 minute chart, and draw a line connecting the two most prominent pivot lows. Hopefully the line extends as you trade, dont know your platform.
That tells you resistance 1380ish, support 1350ish. No worries with market direction, or size of rate cut.

Now you know 2 potential reversal points. now trade within it by following the trend of the rbeadth chart.if the breadth is trading above the 10moving average..go long. if below go short.

if the 10 moving average is flat on the breadth chart..stay out..its likely to be a congestion zone.low reward to risk.

FOMC announces...irrelevant..market direction matters ..follow your market breadth chart. The first reaction..look at your breadth chart dont look at prices. look at MARKET DIRECTION.

3 steps FOMC announcement..1)knee-jerk..2)counter knee jerk...then 3)trade direction . market trends up and reverses at $SPX 1380 ish.which coincides with XLF reversal ( there is also a RSI bearish divergence, AND a long red bar).sell your UYG, go long SKF.... 2 large directional moves.

Now you have your lines markng $SPX resistance, the trendline from the last two lows, RSI bearish divergence on XLF and a red candlestick at resistance on the $SPX..confirming exit LONG.

Why isnt it just a pullback ?..the candlesticks stays below the 10EMA with 2 long cascading long bars( as opposed to inisde bars) .Layer your Short trades in.

Stay in the trend as long as it stays below the 10 moveing ave...add to your position if any pullback does not cross the 10 move ave..

Sell at $SPX support. I didnt..I got out at todays lows...

I have a few other ETFs..they follow $SPX support n Resistance...XLF is one of them.

P/s It helps if you use candlestick reversal patterns . which is showing a reversal on the daily $SPX..lets see what the market says tommorow.

Good luck ..this is a friendly tape for day traders...just stay out of congestion zones.

FGIC Loses AAA Rating at Fitch After Missing Deadline
http://tinyurl.com/32nz2r

Uh oh:

S&P Lowers or May Cut Ratings on $534 Billion of Mortgage Debt

By Emma Moody

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Standard & Poor's lowered or may cut ratings on $534 billion of residential mortgage securities and collateralized debt obligations.

The securities represent $270.1 billion, or 6,389 classes, of mortgage securities rated between January 2006 and June 2007 and $263.9 billion, or 1,953 classes, of CDOs, S&P said today in a statement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM4dOmbQIYTk&refer=home

SiO2 at January 30, 2008 4:23 PM

sorry, the stockcharts.com symbol for the canadian dollar is $ cdw

This chart shows the cad priced against gold, it does show gold going up priced in canadian dollars. I have no idea why the canadian gold jr's have not moved much on this historic gold price?

http://xs.to/xs.php?h=xs223&d=08053&f=gc535.png

ProudPapa at January 30, 2008 4:00 PM

Re insider buys, I don't like canadian insider, just too little info. Try the following at sedi, the link below should take you right to the insider transaction search selection page.

https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/SVTItdController

I punched in Azimut and yes as the Canadian insider showed there was some buying by a couple of insiders and yes it does look interesting. But when I look at the sedi data, ie total holdings and pattern of buying / selling over the years it helps put those last 10 transactions in context.

I think its still interesting but a bigger picture than what you see in the short term summary.

Its nice you can download the whole thing in a PDF file, just wish I could get it into an excel spreadsheet, also nice you can see the options, warrants etc, with strike and expiry dates.

just another one for the toolbox

Thanks TBar. Interesting. I wonder if that CDW is being priced in USD and there is a currency conversion embedded there. Please take a look and click on the second graph in http://tinyurl.com/2hxfmj I did that last year around October (after getting tired of losing money with GLD). That is from a CAD perspective.

proudPapa,
Here is the reason Teck exercised the 3mil options at $5 six months early,(must be in a hurry) it was part of a joint venture agreement with Nautilus. I do own some shares and even though I bought some more at $2.40 recently, I am still underwater; LOL
"Teck Cominco has also committed to pay US$12 million as part of an option to form joint ventures with Nautilus. US$2 million of this will be used to fund acquisition and maintenance of tenements. US$10 million is for research and development of exploration techniques and tools as well as exploration on Teck Cominco approved tenements. To exercise the option Teck Cominco must before June 1, 2008 purchase an additional US$15 million of shares by, at its election, either exercising all of its US$5.00 warrants or subscribing for a private placement of US$15 million at market. Upon exercise, Teck Cominco will have the exclusive right for a term of five years, to form joint ventures on tenements acquired by Nautilus in certain countries since October 20, 2006 ("New Tenements"). Teck Cominco can earn a 40% interest in New Tenements in each of the following four areas: Bismark Sea Papua New Guinea, Solomon Sea Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Tonga, by spending US$25million in each selected area within two years of such election. To earn a 40% interest in all four areas, US$100 million is required to be spent within two years. For each area selected Teck Cominco must spend a minimum of US$12.5million before it can withdraw with no residual interest. Upon earning a 40% interest in an area, Teck Cominco may earn an additional 10.1% in each selected Project Area (defined as an area 100sq km to 200sq km) within the New Tenements by spending US$10 million on each Project Area."

Big selling of SPY after hours.

Jock

AMZN is getting killed afterhours...looks like drinks are on me...

Think I might be getting a little greedy now...AAPL, VMW, AMZN worked out very well...tempted to go short hard GOOG into earnings tommorrow...

Any thoughts guys?

TBar, SiO2,

Yes that $CDW on Stockcharts is the Canadian dollar index, basically the exchange rate US$/CAD$.

I've plotted the same graphs many times myself over the past year, Gold US$ / $CDW in order to get gold charts in CAD and yes there is a discrepency or is there.

Yes in the last 12 months US investors have made money on GOLD and Canadian investors well much lower. But you also have to look at the real value, US$ down in value, so buying power is less so they'll need that increase just to break even on goods purchased.

Now in Canada gold investors did about the same as putting the money under the mattress, no increase, but the value of the dollar went up so buying power is up. In the whole picture I think net start to end buying power change was about the same.

Quasi, thanks for pointing me to sedi, definitely more info there and you are right, recent buys are chump change compared to held positions. Maybe some attempts at averaging down?

yaba, thanks for the backgrounder on Teck's involvement. Still, seems odd they'd exercise their warrents when they are out of the money and still have 6 months left. If they waited and share price stays below strike of $5 just before expiry, couldn't they have picked up more shares for same money? I must be missing something.

From the Financial Times:
Darling backs limited covert bank rescues

http://tinyurl.com/2tjvvr

craig- sorry for the late post->meeting i couldn't get out of at work...obviously no take if unable to watch market reaction (although my wife made a great 5 minute play, buying QLD @ 73.60 at 211pm- she must have read the tape, as that would be 4 minutes prior to the announcement?, then selling at 75 at 216pm)...looking at the charts, had to be pretty exciting->a 4-part move that would have drained anyone playing all 4...

bg- i can see you're thinking two steps ahead most of the time, which is probably good...right now, i just think anyone who bought the rally (and the fact that it rallied again [and higher] after the first reversal probably drew in more than the usual number of buyers [who were primed for a 3 part move]) feels like a trapped bull...you could be right about a continuation of the rally, but i don't think it's going to be this week...

Long time reader first time poster.

I enjoy the education and insight the site has to offer. No doubt many put in countless hours to make it possible.

Headed for a career in market regulation and must commend Bill's work.

Looking forward to meeting many at the PDAC in T.

We could be taking the rollercoaster back up tomorrow:

MBIA Announces Closing and Funding of $500 Million Investment from Warburg Pincus

http://tinyurl.com/2oqnbl

Rob.

DOW futures were down over 100. Now they're coming back only down 71.

Kudos to all of you who can trade this craziness successfully. I still need more sparring time before I'm ready to fight with the big boys.

Rob.

Here is a sobering thought: what can Fed do NOW, after they have used up almost all their bullets? I don't think they can lower their rate much more, as the inflation will kill the economy. In a couple of months the effects of this 1.25% rate cut will be seen in all prices. Up until now, any bad economic news were often interpreted as good news by the market, as they increased the probability of Fed's rate cuts. I have seen the number 3% predicted by some economists last summer. However, each successive rate cut will be harder and harder to make, and so the bad economic news now will have less and less "optimistic side." Combine this with the fact that the market has rallied for the past week, and we can see that this is a very good shorting opportunity (or hedging, whichever way you look at it), especially in the light of the turn-around we saw in the market today. I closed all my shorts on market indices (SKF, FXP) on Friday before the surprise rate cut (taking profits at the end of several weeks of market decline) and stayed away from shorting indices until today, as I didn't believe that the rebound rally could dissipate before today's Fed meeting. I opened a medium-sized position in SKF and SRS today as soon as I saw DOW in the red. I also opened a medium-sized short on ABK at $11 on Monday, after reading John Mauldin's analysis of monoline bond insurers, which he thinks will be the next to go bankrupt (after subprime mortgage lenders), and I hope I will have the strength to hold my ABK short until it falls below $1. :)

There was a comment that mutual fund monthly figures will be generated tomorrow, implying that there will be a rally attempt to pad the numbers.

Finger Lakes, "The stock sale is part of Warburg’s previously announced commitment to invest up to $1 billion in MBIA. In connection with its investment, Warburg has received 16.1 million warrants". These mag infusions carry a heavy price for those companies. And don;t ABK and MBI insure Trillions of dollars?

It's awfully difficult to day trade these markets, I'd say nearly impossible (unless you are GS and know what will happen before hand). That is why straddles make it so much easier. You just need to know what is the final market direction, which I think in this case is easy. You just need to read a great daily commentary by the host of billcara.com, for which we are so grateful.

I think straddles will work great on gold too. I am not convinced it will go up, but with the right straddle it doesn't matter.

proudPapa

Teck had to exercise at $5 in order to fulfill their part of the joint venture agreement. They could buy more shares in the open market but they would not qualify for the joint venture. Very positive in my view. Teck has now commited to the exploration and development of deep sea mining along with Nautilus. Cheers

Think about it.

British Commonwealth discovery of ~100m. oz. of gold in the former British North America called Canada. So in America after WWI, we see an alcohol prohibition to generate ~$20b. $US per year, much of which gets invested in the Weimar Republic in money laundering. They have a hyperinflation. American banks are sympathetic to the new regime. The British, when tipped off, will react against the newly formed Soviet Navy.

Si02,
I think anything that keeps these insurers afloat will