Walgreens (NYSE: WAG) downgraded to Sell at Cititurd.

Looks like we are near a bottom in WAG.:^)

I was caboosed---here is a repost.

Two things.

Thing 1: I was intrigued by the Elder Impulse Model. For metastock users, you can add this indicator to your charts. Go here. http://trader.online.pl/MSZ/e-w-Elders_Impulse.html

I was able to add it easily to my Metastock.

Thing 2: Don Coxe. Worth listening to. http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0003/# (I've not back blogged, so this may have been given already.)

Classic Cara.
Here's the music accompanyment by my favorite Canadian musician:

The Candyman's Gone. Bruce Cockburn

"Sun climbs toward high noon,
Glints metallic off the bowl of the spoon
Sliding through the air toward parted lips
Watch the expression when the straight taste hits
Face crumples, tongue's quickly withdrawn
I hate to tell you but the candy man's gone

Oh sweet fantasia of the safe home
Where nobody has to scrape for honey at the bottom of the comb
Where every actor understands the scene
And nobody ever means to be mean
Catch it in a dream, catch it in a song
Seek it on the street, you find the candy man's gone
I hate to tell you but the candy man's gone

In the bar, in the senate, in the alley, in the study
Pimping dreams of riches for everybody
"Something for nothing, new lamps for old
And the streets will be platinum, never mind gold"
Well, hey, pass it on
Misplaced your faith and the candy man's gone
I hate to tell you but the candy man's gone

(NYC, Boston 3/12/81)

Dollar is weak this morning against the euro & pound. US dollar declines to 1.4752 against euro ... Gold looking very strong this morning & GDX is up over 2% in premarket...

Anyone see any articles over the weekend about GOLD reaching new highs last week?

Anyone, Anyone?

I did not...Looks like those articles will hit when gold hits 1000.00....

Then it will be time to sell...

Good morning.

The only Cara 100 Ratings Change has been reported by bg:

WAG - to Sell @ Citigroup

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

Bill

You have a refreshing, balanced insight. I especially like the emphasis on social equity which is all too absent from the unbridled greed of mainstream economic journalism. We need more balance between greed and good. It is unfortunate our elected officials and business regulators do not share this view. Kudos.

8:39 AM - EuroStoxx down 1.1%; Nikkei, HK down 4%; China down 7%. 10 yr at 3.56%; gold up, crude down; ES futures down almost 6 pts.

In the New York Times this AM there is an article about the French HB&B giant SocGen that reminds me of the old saying, "you reap what you sew."

Good trading against the HB&B everyone.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/business/worldbusiness/28trader.html?th&emc=th

Found in Bill's WIR -

"Gold & Precious Metals Review

The $GOLD contract rocketed from 881.70 to 914.12 in the four-session week.
That’s what happens when the FOMC declares an emergency -75 bp drop in the Fed Rate, and the Administration was simultaneously explaining its $150 billion econ stimulus package.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 834.69, up from 829.09, and the 200d MA is 733.05, up from 728.68.

As I wrote in this space a week ago, “I think $GOLD is at a crucial point right now. There could be a rally or the price could collapse. A short straddle might be effective.” Wow, how good was that?

I also wrote, “There are indications from the price chart of gold, platinum and palladium (but not for silver) that the price might break downward. Watch the silver for the key.”
As usual, I’m trying hard to please.
The gain for $GOLD on Friday was a remarkable +3.67 pct.

Traders can now leg out of that straddle, I think. Maybe g034 can explain this?"

Bill has two concepts here, a straddle and legging.

A straddle is a "Delta Neutral" options strategy that is bi-directional where the trader can make $ without forecasting the direction of the trade. Here is how it is laid out:

A straddle is placed by the simultaneous purchase of calls and puts at the same strike price and expiration. The risk of this trade is the premium that you pay for both the calls and the puts. You want to use a strike close to the current price of the underlying security. The reward is unlimited.

Example:

XYZ trading at $50.

Buy 50 calls

Buy 50 puts

If at expiration XYZ is trading at exactly $50 (what are the odds of that happening?), you make no money, usually one of the options will be in the money and you hope that XYZ has moved enough to offset the premium that you paid for both positions. So if XYZ rallies to $60, your calls have done really well, your puts will expire worthless. This can be an expensive position to put on, so a good time to use this would be during a period of consolidation - like in our symmetrical triangle example a few weeks ago. As the price movement narrows, the volatility declines as the coil is winding - then the coil is sprung and the price shoots either way for big gains on one side of your trade.

Please note that in general you want to use options from around 45 days to 120 days to expiration as a starting point, definitely don't use long dated options like leaps because they are too expensive. In Bills case, he wanted to use even shorter expirations.

In Bill's strategy, he thought that gold was going to get volatile within a few days, but had no definitive direction in mind, so why not get set up for the big move not caring about direction? His strategy was to put on a straddle which has worked out on the calls side of the trade with the big rally. Now he has a decision to make - how does he get out of the trade? The trade was put on simultaneously, but it doesn't have to come off simultaneously. This is where the term "legging" comes in. Legging is putting the position on (or taking off) in two parts, not as a spread. Bill, why don't you "leg" out of the trade by selling your calls at a profit now and taking your puts off later? You've locked in the gains on your calls, your puts are basically worthless now, but why get rid of the puts? They can act like a lottery ticket - if the price of gold falls from here, your puts could be in the money also. That would be a grand slam and the proper way to manage this position.

Bill talks about managing your portfolio like a business. Here he is giving you a simple tool to add to your toolbox to help your business prosper.

(hope that made sense :-) )

Herb Greenberg on being respectful of risk:

"Tell people the stock market will be going up, even if the logic is flawed, and they think you’re a hero; suggest it might be going down, and they consider you part of some dark alley conspiracy."

http://tinyurl.com/25npvt

Good morning Bill & friends

The past week witnessed an extraordinary set of events on the financial front, a rogue trader creating havoc at Société Générale, and wild swings on global stock markets as mounting concerns about a recessionary US economy and the implications for global growth continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Read all about this in my regular weekly article highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

Here is the link to the "Words from the Wise": http://tinyurl.com/yt3fle

Nobody said it was going to be easy ...

Basket,

Re Gold: 1.000 can come by as late as this week.

Then you will see the news.

Here is the follow up article on Mr. Kerviel from the Times. Note; Kerviel made the bank $2 billion as of Dec 31.
My point is, the bank never prosecuted Kerviel before the alleged loss.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/28/business/worldbusiness/28bank.html?th&emc=th

Seabridge Gold [SA]

Is reporting today....
'SA' News -- Gold Resources Increase 14% at Seabridge's Noche Buena project located in Sonora, Mexico"

This maybe a swing trade some of the Caraistas may want to look at. I have done well with it in the past and currently back in.

Disclosure:In 2007 I pickup up SA around 15 and sold at 34 a few months later. Last week I picked up SA @21 & 22.

basket - Last week I mentioned that gold was up $30 on the day, yet not a mention on CNBC...not even "highlighted" at the top of the screen like any other moving market.

never ceases to amaze me how far sentiment can move in eight hours in the absence of any news...now it looks like they want to try to take it up...

isaiah- thanks for the heads-up on SA...

Seabridge Gold [SA]

Opened up 10% higher at the bell

Seabridge Gold [SA]

Opened up 10% higher at the bell

Sorry.. it was 5%

For those that wonder about Bill's comments this morning or his public worry about the price of gold falling due to something like margin requirements being raised (which has been done in the past to curtail "speculating" in various commodities), I'd like to remind you of August 2006.

In August 2006, Goldman Sachs "arbitrarily" changed the unleaded gas component of its index from 8.45% to 2.3% at a time when specs were heavily long. This blew up some hedge funds and made index linked funds sell 73% of their unleaded gas futures. At the time, this dropped the price of gas, as Labor Day demand was actually UP 5.4%. It killed the inflation story at the time, helping the housing market. If I recall correctly, Goldman Sachs made a statement that the change was documented in advance on their website, but not many saw it. BTW, I pulled this from my journal, so it may not be exactly what happened, but you get the point. Feel free to comment on this.

g034...

Great comment...And to add fuel to that fire GOLDMAN IS HEAVILY SHORT GOLD...

AND WAY WAY WAY UNDERWATER on the short side..

A couple of thoughts on Bill's WIR -

Lot's of head and shoulders being built.

Did I miss any comments on South African Energy shortage causing the government to ask business to slow usage? HMY and GFI had to stop working some mines last week.

"Doctor Copper" - Bill mentions copper price movement which has been historically a good "tell" of the health of the economy.

IMO, the Rogue Trader story has a good chance of being bs. Risk managers are on top of all trades.

Bill's RSI method is simple in nature. I add simple trendlines for confirmation of trend changes. A trader friend of mine wrote an excellent non-published book on the application of various ta trading patterns. He would razz me about my simple methods because he said that everyone looks at "that stuff", which was true. What he failed to grasp, is that it is not the method, it is the consistent execution of the method. Psychology comes into play and traders make mistakes. Many methods work, find one that is comfortable for you and get good at it.

WOW...Great housing sales numbers

And downward revisions...

Must mean the market has got to rally, the fed has got to cut...BUY BUY BUY

NOT....

I missed the numbers they were good or was that sarcasm?

Dec home sales DOWN 4.5%...

THEY WERE HORRIBLE....

Dec home sales DOWN 4.5%...

THEY WERE HORRIBLE....

DEC NEW HOME SALES: 604K V 647KE; Lowest since Feb 1995. With the way the markets are going, a crooked poker game provides more honesty!

Here is another simple option trade that I should have posted a couple of months back when some community members were talking about their gains in some stocks and what to do with the position.

To protect gains, keep position and not incur cap gains taxes you could simply buy a put on the position, but I'd rather use a collar to protect the position.

Example:

You bought XYZ at $30 and now it is trading at $50. Due to the run up, it is technically way overbought with a low probability of a much higher run before a period of consolidation or outright decline sets in. So to protect the position you (in a perfect world) execute a zero premium collar that looks like this:

XYZ at $50

Buy $50 puts for $7

Sell $65 calls for $7

The premiums offset, so the risk is the opportunity cost of the capital in the position.

Max return is $15 if the stock rallies to $65, but you could take off the trade and "roll" into another collar with a $65 put and $80 call and still have more upside. In the real world, this will probably be a debit spread, but the debit will be lower than a simple put buy.

Add this to your toolbox.

morning drop works off the nervous nellies...

7% drop in shanghai?- plenty of time tuesday to short asia...right now, great set-up for a short-covering rally...

Yahoo reporting NOT.v trading halt pending news.

http://tinyurl.com/yqwajr

Good morning!

NOT/Noront shows a trading halt on "pending news".

I'm patient.

what kind of set-up is "w" going to want->just enough gloom for an indignant tone when addressing the senate, or enough of a rally to suspend disbelief when he says rate cuts/money in your pocket will turn things around?

MACD(24,48,9) on 10-min SSO chart working nicely as a directional indicator. Long SSO.

Hello 2nd.Re:
7% drop in shanghai?- plenty of time tuesday to short asia...right now, great set-up for a short-covering rally...

Are you looking at FXP for a BUY tomorrow Tuesday "our time"????

I won't be home tomorrow but I can check in with quotes if it might be worth my while.

Noront Resources Ltd. ("Noront") (TSX VENTURE: NOT) is pleased to announce the receipt of assays on hole NOT-07-27 and 29 on its 100%-owned Eagle One occurrence within Noront's Double Eagle Project in the McFauld's Lake Area of northeastern Ontario. "The results from hole 27 are the highest grade ...

NOSOF Showing 4.00 ask here in US

mg- if we rally to the area of DJIA 12,500+, planning to scale back into shorts...

SSO - Exited (probably too soon, but I have an errand to run....)

2nd,
See yesterday's daily. He's in "bail out my Presidency" mode. IE: as sucked-up as W gets. Read moderately stupid looking.

From Daddy: Read my lips, our economy is "funadmentally sound".

Hear: "I'm as close to Hoover as you will see".

watch the 300 Spartans battle it out at FXI $148.50 ish and AAPL at $132...a breakout....or a breakdown...?

I read somewhere....pump and dump....
I vote breakdown.

Leisa,
Thankyou for link to Don Coxe webcast,
Definitely worth listening to.

NOT.V bid and ask 4.04 in Canada

A lot of talk about the sub-prime issues hitting main street American homeowners the last week. I think 60 minutes had a segement on it last night, like CNBC is having today.

This is setting up for lawsuits and Government intervention with helicopter liftoff.

Where is that gold trading at???

Up another 16.00...

SHORTS ARE DEAD...GS WALKING DEAD IN THE GOLD MARKET

NOSOF NOW AT 4.50 CLIMBING FAST AND HARD

TORONTO, ONTARIO -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 01/28/08 -- Noront Resources Ltd. ("Noront") (TSX VENTURE: NOT) is pleased to announce the receipt of assays on hole NOT-07-27 and 29 on its 100%-owned Eagle One occurrence within Noront's Double Eagle Project in the McFauld's Lake Area of northeastern Ontario. "The results from hole 27 are the highest grade encountered to date. This hole is quite significant as it contains high gold values within the massive sulphide zone not seen in earlier holes, and it extends the high grade massive sulphide zone to depth on this section. Results include thirty-five meters of massive sulphide averaging 7.91% nickel, 3.45% copper, 1.66 grams per tonne platinum and 12.79 grams per tonne palladium, along with 3.87 grams per tonne gold and 9.27 grams per tonne silver. Our immediate drill objectives are to complete infill drilling as required for resource estimate calculations and to begin drill testing several high-priority geophysical targets within the Double Eagle project area" states Richard Nemis, President and CEO of Noront.

http://www.sys-con.com/read/491610.htm

Checking miners which historically do well in FEB: bhp, auy,grs

http://tinyurl.com/3xguzg - BYP up 5 years out of 6, avg. gain 7.1%

http://tinyurl.com/yte8q5 - In 4 years, AUY has gone up each Feb, by an average of 8.7%

http://tinyurl.com/2kr5o5 - GRS up sharply 4 years of 4 in Feb and Mar. 12.8 and 14.9% respectively.

I checked about a dozen; this site doesn't do juniors :-(

FWIW, no GTY's, just educated guesses ! - Jock

Hi did a ranking of the solar stocks on a 5-day price % and also analysis of all industry groups in order to scoop out the best candidates.Check it out
http://www.WallastonInvestments.com

NOT.V trading resumes. Up 21%

What's NOT up to now?

NOT.V is 4.15/4.17 hit high 4.30

basketguy: Do you have a reference (link or otherwise) for GS short gold figures? Also, it seems like $1000 is a nice round number for resistance but also a very strong support level. Considering the general public has not necessarily perceived inflation as a problem, it seems like it would be prudent to hold the majority of a position and take only minor profits at such a point.

Thoughts?

I know the trading day is barely half over...... but does anyone think there will be a sell off near the end of the day or will it finish up for the President's speech tonight.

Bert -
http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

OG,
thanks for that link again. Note that GS is actually net long in near months, massively short further out. Wonder if there's offsetting positions on other exchanges. Perhaps Gordon Brown has offered them a deal on the BOE :>)

g034: I see two paths this can take. First Mish has a nice writeup about something Calculated Risk has been talking about and that is the socially acceptable aspect to just walking away (Thanks 60 minutes for enabling here!).

If this attitude truly becomes acceptable the unwinding will get much worse than what anyone can currently comprehend. So either the gov't stands back and watch's the continuing massive unwinding of this deflationary credit spiral or it steps in and guarantees the mortgages. Interest rate cuts, tax rebates and anything else they have done will not penetrate the publics growing aversion to future credit and current ignoring of debt. At some point it's psychology of the masses that matters not valuations, charts, or interest rate cuts.

Just my current thinking which is subject to change in the next 10 minutes.

g034
Thanks for option info.
Question does your choice of 65 price, being $15 above current price have any significance to the cost of the calls and puts? Or was it just an arbitrary number. thanks in advance

mikede -

It was arbitrary. Each situation should be looked at on an individual basis. Look for the best ROI on the possible trades. Also, look at the charts to see where the stock could go - e.g., a ta price target.

geckojb,
I watched the 60 Minutes show last night. My takeaway is that the real psychological threat is that many people don't want to be paying off a $400,000 mortgage on a house which is now market priced at $280,000. It's not an issue of carrying costs. It's an issue of valuation. Therefore, I don't see rate cuts keeping people in these homes if walking away is an option that they can live with. In Canada, if you walk away then your credit rating is shot for seven years and you may have to liquidate all of your assets and turn the proceeds over to the creditor. You can't even get acredit card. I don't know how much pain U.S. defaulters are subjected to. I think that the real turning screw is that most people live in this dreamworld where they believe that house prices will appreciate for ever. In my part of Canada (White Rock, B.C) everyone feels smuggly insulated as their wealth increases with real estate appreciation. I hope for their sakes that the're right.

UXG breakout.
Any news?
~S

srolaser...Re: UXG

Yes...Gold going to 1000.00 :^)

Yes, but UXG up 13.5%.
Other juniors are doing OK but not up 13.5% after a long languishing fall.
~S

Yes, but UXG up 13.5%.
Other juniors are doing OK but not up 13.5% after a long languishing fall.
~S

Bill your discussion today was spot on right.

I have been quietly reading your discussions for a year now and your insights are very keen.

As Taoist Master I watch the market like a fractal pattern in which humanity reveals its fears and expectations within. It also reveals quite a bit about the power structure of the world.

You are right that instead of smart financial choices we are now seeing fundamental power shifts occurring. The Bank of America decision was such an event. In that I suspect this current administration will cut them a deal for helping to "save" the market from a short term panic... Gads it makes one ill and it all comes at a social cost to each of us.

The bigger question is always how do we make a difference for our lives to be better. I only teach people how to be themselves. In this I have no wisdom how to handle the financial market as money is about power and not really about how to be yourself. In Taoism we detach from money due to the attachment issues it creates. And detaching from money is not an acceptable path from a modern American perspectiv. So another way has to exist also.

Which leads to my question to you:
How would you propose making a difference socially while working as an intelligent day trader?

That is a very difficult question and one I have yet to see a good answer for.

I always imagine creating smart investment communities or socially active corporations which focuses its investments towards social gains. But the existing socially aware groups almost always either get trapped by the power of money and then absorbed into the general power structure. Or they don't have enough of understanding of the market inter dynamics to truly make a difference.

So I applaud your statement today. But you need to follow it with more than just the words, what would the action be to support your words?

I hope this makes sense? I would love to see your answer.

Thanks and excellent blog!

srolaser...UXG

Think Coiled spring...Take a look at RSI and MACD...Remember what Bill has said about a coiled spring....

What happens when it POPS?

srolaser

UXG...at last! Great news... Srolaser...

Good to see UXG get some bids. I sold today for a small gain at 3.65. I'm usually early out of winners. For those still long, I wish you good fortune.

Whats NOSOF at now? I only see the closing price unfortunately. Are you going to hold onto it or sell? I'm inclined to hold it but I'd like to see what the more informed are thinking. TIA

Bill,
Great comments as always. I don't think there's anything about you that's like a socialist. My understanding is that you have no desire to "take the riches wealth and give that to the poor". Instead I see you as someone who wants everyone to possess the knowledge and experience to be as rich as they would like thereby enabling us to compete more effectively with the professionals and interventionists running the world financial system.

I think your philosophy is much closer to Ralph Waldo Emerson and Ayn Rand than Karl Marx.

Anyone who can't see that obviously isn't reading your words.

Thanks again for all you give us.

Rob.

Bill and Rob:
Excellent comments, but what in the world is wrong with some Socialism.
Every time your children go to a Public School, that is Socialism.
Every time you drive your car on a Public Highway, that is Socialism.
Your mail system is Socialism; airports which are publicly owned are Socialism, etc., etc.

Socialism is nothing more...or less...than Public Ownership for the Public Good.

Socialism has gotten a bad rap from the very crooks, cheats and power brokers who we so roundly hate on this blog; and, of course, THEY are the very ones who do NOTHING for the public good....GREED is their ONLY mantra.

Long live Socialism!

Interesting coincidence: last night I have finally received a reply from Rob McEwen to an e-mail I sent to him in early December, asking why UXG was going down. This e-mail was actually forwarded to me from someone else in US Gold, who said that Rob had a problem with my e-mail and hence the response came so late. Anyway, today UXG is on the move, and I haven't even shared Rob's response with anyone yet. :) Here it is:

******

Hello David,
Sorry for the lengthy delay. As you have probably observed some of the junior explorers have lost considerable value between mid-August and Year end. Large institutional speculative money left the sector as cheap credit dried up. Those stocks that had strong runs were hammered if they didn't have speculator drill results, such as our own stock. Our results have been good and typical of most deposits in Nevada,
however we have not yet discovered a higher grade occurrence like the neighbouring Cortez Hills deposit. That is what we are looking for in
Nevada.

The positives of US Gold are a strong treasury, large land package with numerous targets in an area near big deposits. In addition, we have a
large property and mine in Mexico that is very intriguing. The mine was closed when gold was $450/oz and it had a high grade zone that we are
exploring currently to see if this zone and others exist.

Regarding the gold share market, so far it's the seniors that are moving with the climbing gold price. Some time later this year the juniors
will begin to perform well, assuming the gold price holds up which I believe it will.

Sorry you had to wait so long for a reply,

Rob

Certainly we need some socialism to survive as a community and society.

My main disagreement with adherents to socialism is their philosophy of equalizing everyone. Thus in a purely socialistic society, we wouldn't have any Bill Gates' or Michael Jordan.

I do not support people in power stealing what rightfully belongs to "we the people" but I also don't support limiting how high anyone can reach. I applaud ultra-succesful people who have gotten there with integrity and think we should look at them as an example of the heights anyone can achieve.

If I'm not wrong, freeing us through knowledge and experience to be as successful as we desire is Bill's main passion in writing this blog.

Well the crucial 2PM hour is here. What will happen today?

Rob.

Basketguy: Not seeing it in the UXG RSI and MACD. Would you elaborate?

Bill: I have considered the same. It seems to me that our business of business, trading and banking is wholly owned and dictated by the HB&B and powers that be. How to do what you say and still trade seems to be the puzzle to solve. It seems like you are suggesting a paradigm along the lines of J Turks gold money coupled with income producing assets. Are they not still ultimately owned by the powers in their ability to tax and/or take? I was kind of thinking that their power lies more in the general public as a consumer. But the mob does not necessarily share our view.

Bert...Re;UXG

If it were clear as day..We all would be trading for a living...

Take a look at UXG chart I am looking at a one year on stockcharts.com..

The stock seemed to want to base in the 4.25-5.00 range in Oct, We also got a buy trigger when RSI broke above 30 around Oct 24th. BUT, the lows were taken out about a week later and news that Rob was not happy with Gold findings added fuel to the fire and the stock pulled back to beginning of DEC. When Rob increased his stake in UXG.

We got a second buy signal shortly after. Since then there were about 4 attempts to take the stock back above the 3.5-3.60 level.

All the time RSI was BUILDING (RISING)and MACD was BUILDING (RISING). Then this week gold broke out to all time highs and that to me (at least short term) was a nice catalyst for a breakout above the 3.50-3.60 level

Now look at a one day cart and the volume now that we have broken that 3.60 level.

Now it should rally back to the 4.25-5.00 level and try to hold there again...At least that is what I am looking for...

But I think gold will only make it to about 980.-1000 on this run...At which time I will look at uxg and make a decision to hold or lighten up.

UYG/FXI/SNDK/INTC-> taking half off the table (money mgmt)...

congrats to NOT/UXG holders...

Bill,

As you're commenting on the big banks a lot recently I was wondering if you could comment on this video titled "Money As Debt" (http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279) as it really opened my eyes on the working of banks and the franctional reserve system that they are operating under (which I wasn't even aware of until recently.) Is the fractional reserve model completely broken (as this video suggests) or do you see other solutions to the whole credit problem?

Thanks,
Corey

FranSix,

Now that gold has achieved your $930 objective, what next?

Is anyone looking at Commercial REIT's?

BXP and SPG both hit 50 day resistance on the 24th and 25th and both are trading below the 50 day currently.

They look like good short plays if they can't get above the 50 day soon.

VNO is currently above it's 50 day.

Rob.

Jeffrey Saut posted an insightful comment today.

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

CSCO calls on sale as it closes its gap from last week. Earnings coming in a few weeks. Should be good for a trade. Just bought Feb $25 call for $0.59.

Correction: CSCO earnings Feb. 6th

OldGoat - Thanks for the info on the TOCOM. I couldn't find the same for the NYMEX. Do you know if one exists?

Interesting site which tracks performance of guru's recommended stocks (via Kirk Report)

http://www.gainerstoday.com/FAQ.aspx

Bert - No idea myself; perhaps someone else knows. TOCOM is one place where the kimono is opened; and, as you must know, "a peek in the hand is worth two finesses."

Jock: thanks for the excellent link, and for others in the past.

I didn't think anything of buying UXG for 3.20 yesterday. Amazing. Wish I still had all the shares I traded between 3.10 and 3.50.....LOL!

Bert

Reference individual company short/long interest, it is my understanding only the Japanese authorities (TOCOM) require it. Other exchanges do not and you can be assured GS (among others) will fight any attempts to have this kind of transparency. If you play in Japan, you have to play by their rules, not GS' rules.

Kaimu may have more information on this as I am completely going by memory FWIW.

re socialism vs. capitalism:

Generally, only one kind of animal is equipped to win the rat race!

US-style unbridled capitalism becomes what it has become - dominated by HB&B and corporate lobbies.

Mexican-style unbridled capitalism leads to the richest man in the world owning 1/3 of the value of the stock market -- while millions of countrymen have to risk their lives leaving the country to feed their families.

Communism was an abject failure.

So, doesn't that leave W. Europe's mix as the winner? - strong market regulation, a strong public sector, but set up so the average man won't starve when out of work, won't end up bankrupt from a catastrophic illness, be unable to afford sending his kids to the best universities, or unable to afford retirement?

Did you know the minimum wage in UK was 80% higher than in the US ? (last time I checked a couple of years ago)

bg- things looking good for SNDK after-hours...

2nd...

Would have loved to see a bigger pop...But lets wait for the conference call...

Excellent, Jock; that's the way the U.S. operated from 1932 to 1968. We really had a good country going then. Too bad LBJ was so "over the top" on Vietnam; his ardor let Nixon beat Humphrey in 1968, and it's been all downhill since.

In spite of Nixon, Ferd, Reagan, Bush and, yes, even Clinton (who signed NAFTA and GATT when he had the votes to sustain a veto, the fecal matter didn't find the geographical center of the fan until a genuine, certified (and certifiable) moron arrived. Hmmm, wonder who that could be.

Not impressed by the volume, I guess everybody's waiting to hear what's going to happen tonight, & Wednesday. I don't think the Fed is going to cut by the amount currently priced in by the market...

if at all!! (please, please, ben)

regardless, picked up some SKF @ the close and will pick up some more tomorrow at some point. Was debating if I should dump my IAU but now that 1,000/oz is within reach... eh. I guess I'll hang on.

SNDK..

Chief Executive Eli Harari said in a statement the company expects to grow revenue and profits in 2008, despite "current uncertainties in the worldwide economy and a challenging industry pricing environment in the first quarter."

I like that that statement. Eli has a lot to prove and I think he will not steer us worng.

Has any CEO come out to say they are expecting to GROW revenue and profits in 2008?

VMW...Vmware getting crushed after hours...This may be weighing a little(LOT) on SNDK...

Ronbon and Jock,
Points well taken. I do agree that we need a safety net for the poor, including minimum wages.

But if somone earns their money honestly then who are we to say that their pay should be limited? What if Bill's trading service takes off and he becomes a multi-billionaire? Should we begrudge him that reward for his effort because he has so much more than other people? I don't think so.

I don't know the Mexico example specifically but I've heard of him. I think I read an article in Fortune about him. I would think to some he is a hero for providing jobs. It would be great if he would try and move Mexico further ahead with his riches and stem the outflow of people but he, like everyone should, has free choice.

Anyway, we'll never agree fully but I respect your views as I hope you do mine.

For the record, I'm not a Bush lover at all.

Speaking of the W, what does everyone think about the State of The Union? Usually when he speakes the market tanks. Does anyone think there's any chance of a Capital Gains tax cut? Or maybe suspending the alternative minimum tax or maybe lowering marginal tax rates on everyone.

It's probably just wishful thinking but those changes if enacted would actually stimulate the economy instead of just pandering.

Rob.

Alright, I LOVE you guys, but let's keep it straight.
Finger, No one said anything about taking someone's money. We're talking about paying your fair share of the upkeep of the machine.

Warren Buffett makes a simple point. He is LUCKY to live here and he is HAPPY to pay taxes to live in this country. As he points out, if he lived in Bangladesh his talent for asset allocation would be of little use.

Secondly, please, unless YOU are independently wealthy, STOP making the wealthy arguement unless you have no need for respect or you want the crowd you are standing in to turn on you.

Most of us are NOT in the top 2% of earners or unearners as the case may be, and if you don't know where you fit and with whom you stand, we do. Right wingers, stop with the short-sighted one dimensional crap. We don't want your guns and we don't care if you have an abortion or pray to your God in school. None of it will matter if you don't wake up and realize what is really being taken from you while you fight the unwinnable fight. Only your freedom and your resources. You did not get tax cuts from GW. WAKE UP. You got MORE DEBT. The tax cuts did NOT go to you. No, the supposed money you think you got or are getting is a BILL sent to your kids and grandkids. You are NOT paying your fair share and the wealthy you defend surely aren't paying their fair share.

Stop saying we limit anyone. We clearly have no wealth limit. What we don't limit is poverty. We don't give a crap about those on the other end of the spectrum, in fact, we blame them and the 8blame* is unlimited.

Why, Finger, does Warren Buffett only pay 15% tax on his "unearned" income while you pay withholding of at least 25%? (plus SS) Why don't you get to adjust your income for "business expenses"? Isn't a household a business?

NO, no one has said anything about income or wealth redistribution. We just want those with the greatest benefit to recognize their good fortune and PAY THEIR WAY. Maybe lighten the load on the little guy so he can buy some shelter, some gruel and gas, maybe marginal care from the local witch doctor while we provide our wealthy bankers and politicians all the luxuries of this world so they can not only rip us off but our kids and grandkids.

What am I supposed to respect? That rich folks don't like to pay their way?

Basket,

The technical target for this run up in gold is 1050.

Gold and Oil are very different....

Take your hands off the keyboard and let it fly, (but stay close to the sell button, just in case)

We may see 1.000 this week.

Cheers,

Maromatics...Re GOLD

What's 50.00 among friends..:^)

All we know is that we are close..Lets hope BEN gives us what we need...

Anyone see VMW afterhours...down 25%!! About time we get this fluff out of the market.

bg- SNDK- personally, not hearing anything i don't like...of course, we trade prices, and maybe i should have cleared the position on the initial pop...but that's water under the bridge, and now i'm thinking instead about replacing the half i sold this afternoon if/when it drops below 24 (wasn't fast enough to catch the momentary drop below 23)...

mg- today's move takes us close enough to 12,500 that i took half my longs off, but still leaning towards another rally tomorrow->at which time i plan to scale into FXP (before the close)...but hey, who knows...

I liked some of the points made in the discussion posts.

But clearly:
No one system is perfect, also, society shouldn't determine who or what we are: it's the reverse, we in our actions end up defining Society. A fine difference many people have forgotten.

This point is important since all of our actions in trading make a difference to the world.

This discussion shouldn't be a point about which system is best. Because then it just becomes an argument. In fact the discussion is a question on how can we make a difference in our current system to be better. What actions can we do, how to apply trading in such a way to also be beneficial to who we are? In other words in working so hard to live and make money we forget that we make money to support life and those around us who we care about.

This why I am curious to hear Bill's idea's on how to merge the two together. Is it possible to add social responsible actions within a purely capitalistic process?

We all know it's easy to disconnect the two. It's also clear from the way the United States is going, the overall process does come with hidden social costs when left to its own.

Likewise a purely social system also fails for the very same reason. Greed is greed no matter what economic system you use.

What I have yet to see is a system or a proposal of actions that permits full freedom of a capitalistic ideal with more positive social benefits than negative. Intrinsically a capitalistic system is neither negative nor positive. Yet that doesn't take into account the businesses supported thru capitalistic actions. That then typically pushes the social equation negative, since there isn't typically profit in social equality in business or to those controlling the process and larger cash flows.

Usually what happens is someone gets filthy rich, and then afterwards they go... Oh heck I need to make up for this and some of the mess I made, then they create some foundation to do positive work...

However, I really don't think that is a good answer either.

I am curious if anyone has thought about ways to resolve this within their own practice? This is something I have been watching for 30 years having revolved around wall street for a good portion of my life through connections. Yet has anyone here seen a good answer for Bill's original post?

I agree: Interventionists are destroying our wealth in order to meet their own goals and objectives. For the sake of a better society, it’s got to stop.

But what is the answer? We do all want a better society, and if it can be based upon our actions (since our actions clearly define society):
But now here is the trick part: what actions as traders can we do to make a difference in this?

NYMEX gold futures margin increased.

http://tinyurl.com/2kf78v

Remember Bill warned us about this possibility at least twice recently?

As I read this (less than widely publicized announcement), when gold futures re-open for trading in about 15 minutes, it will be on the increased margin rates. It will be interesting to see if it makes any difference in the overnight trading.

Is it just coincidence that the gold margin rate changes just before the State of the Union address? Maybe I'm overly paranoid, but I smell a rat. Would it not be helpful to Helicopter Ben to lower interest rates if gold took a dive?

VMW- opening a (small) position AH at 60.85...purely a trade...

VMW- opening a (small) position AH at 60.85...purely a trade...

Ted Butler has an article discussing the huge short position in gold and silver held by the "4 or less" and "8 or less" traders categories.
http://tinyurl.com/29jdsc

2nd_ave...SNDK and VMW

I also like what I heard, maybe they are being a little overly cautious? The jury is out, but lets see how market reacts in AM. If it gaps down in AM I believe that gap will be filled by days end..

VMW...I like the company. I will trade it by buying EMC when the dust settles...That way I have less capital to put to work...

I have to run some numbers, but if I can recall when VMW was at 80.00 the bottom line addition to EMC was about 12.50 a share. Now with VMW around 60.00 that should still add about 9-10.00 to EMC bottom line...SO the rest of EMC is only being valued at about 5.00 share...

To me a pretty good risk/reward on EMC under 15.00. I will monitor...

Are there concerns of a meltdown? Do people belief this is a strong possibility?

N225 opens up 2.5%...

Are there concerns of a meltdown? Do people belief this is a strong possibility?

"Intrinsically a capitalistic system is neither negative nor positive. " I think that this statement is an idealization of capitalization that is not true. I think that a purely capitalistic system gave us child labor and sweatshops among other things.

And don't discount go34's warning on the GS gold allocation. As he said, they did some damage to oil traders by having Hank simply change their oil allocation with the ensuing index and broker allocation fallout.

Bill...

Have you gotten any more word from the
"Shanghai Fly"?

Posted by: Craig at January 28,
Maybe I don't understand, but do you fellows realize that gs is at 2 yr lows in their short positions for gold?

The red graph is G.S's short position.Data compliled by Adrian at Midas I believe.

Daily or weekly data sometimes obscures the bigger picture imo

http://goldtent.com/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/adrian2.gif

Thanks Bill and Jeff for the server adjustments that fixed my login issue.

Started taking some weaker gold juniors off today. Agree with the short term target of 1050, based on a flag flying at half mast.

Planning to short some of the lofty large cap miners at the turn and look for a bottom near 850. Probably will take a few months to stabilize and build a base.

On the next leg up will use bullion and maybe a junior or two, but I think the long term game in equities is over, as well as all real estate. There will be trading ops long/short, but the trend will be lower.

Secured a portion of physical bullion holdings that I've been meaning to do but waited until it got much more expensive. A Bar in the hand is worth two in an ETF.

"funny"??
try reading aloud.

Global financial system

The history of financial institutions must be differentiated from economic history and history of money. In Europe, it may have started with the first commodity exchange, the Bruges Bourse in 1309 and the first financiers and banks in the 1400–1600s in central and western Europe. The first global financiers the Fuggers (1487) in Germany; the first stock company in England (Russia Company 1553); the first foreign exchange market (The Royal Exchange 1566, England); the first stock exchange {the Amsterdam Stock Exchange 1602).
History
The first reference to the Fugger family in the Swabian Free City of Augsburg is the arrival of Hans Fugger recorded in the tax register of 1357. He married Klara Widolf and became an Augsburg citizen. After Klara's death, he married Elizabeth Gfattermann. He joined the Weaver's Guild, and by 1396 he was ranked high in the list of taxpayers.
His eldest son, Andreas Fugger, was a merchant in the weaving trade, and was nicknamed 'the rich Fugger', buying land and other properties.
Andreas's son, Lucas Fugger, was granted arms by the Emperor Frederick III, a golden deer on a blue background, and he was soon nicknamed 'the Fugger of the Deer'. However, he was too ambitious and went bankrupt.
Hans Fugger's younger son, Jakob the Elder, founded another branch of the family, This branch progressed more steadily and they became known as the 'Fuggers of the Lily' after their chosen arms of a flowering lily on a gold and blue background. Jakob was a master weaver, a merchant, and an alderman, and married Barbara Basinger, the daughter of a goldsmith. His fortune progressed, and by 1461, he was the 12th richest man in Augsburg. He died in 1469.
Jakob's eldest son, Ulrich, took over the business on his father's death, and in 1473 he provided new suits of clothes to Frederick, his son Maximilian I, and his suite on their journey to Trier to meet Charles the Bold of Burgundy and the betrothal of the young prince to Charles's daughter Maria. This started the very profitable relationship between the Fugger family and the Habsburgs. Ulrich died in 1510.
Ulrich's youngest brother Jakob Fugger (illustration, below) was born in 1459, and was to become the most famous member of the dynasty. He married Sibylla Artzt in 1498, but they had no children. He was elevated to the nobility of the Holy Roman Empire in May 1511, and in 1519, led a consortium of German and Italian businessmen that loaned Charles V 850,000 florins to procure his election as Holy Roman Emperor over Francis I of France[1]. The Fugger's contribution was 543,000 florins. Jakob died in 1525. He is considered to be one of the richest persons of all time and today, he is well known as Jakob Fugger 'the rich'.
Jakob's successor was his nephew Anton Fugger, son of his elder brother Georg. Anton was born in 1493, married Anna Rehlinger, and died in 1560.
In 1511, Jakob deposited the large sum of 15,000 florins as an endowment for some almshouses. In 1514, he bought up part of Augsburg and in 1516 he came to agreement with the city that he would build and provide a number of almshouses for needy citizens. By 1523, 52 houses had been built, and the Fuggerei had come into existence. It is still used today.

http://tinyurl.com/255fqh

2nd.

Thanks much. Will have to pass. Don't like trading on phone.

Good luck!!!

Bill:
re: when the prez speaks:

If you don't count President Bush's Tax Rebate speech just before lunch on 1.18.08 when the 'Market' dropped almost 60 points at the close with Hank and Dick by his side, you are correct.

Well tonight it will be dial a hope again....
The word's out.

Google (Marketwatch) "In a speech largely devoid of new ideas, President Bush will sound a hopeful note in his State of the Union speech Monday night, even as he acknowledges a "period of uncertainty" in the economy ..."

2nd,
Did you catch BMD today? Would have made your year. That and UXG would have been quite a pair.

Craig,
I'm sorry that my words have offended you. Of course, I'm not super-rich. I'm not even rich. And I'm certainly not a "Right-Winger".

And I know that no one was talking about taking Bill Gates' money and spreading it among those who make less that 10K per year. I was merely stating one facet of Socialism I disagree with.

Obviously, I think we should stop HB&B from stealing our wealth and stop government from spending us into debt just like you do.

And we should take care of our poor better, like my parents who live on less than 10K per year and often do need to turn to us for money to make ends meet. The world is a very cruel and miserable place for many people and it should be different.

In the future I'll watch my words more carefully and try and stick to discussing the market.

Rob.

Please excuse my ignorance. How do I purchase certificates that are 100-pct backed by proven physical gold, as Bill has advised?
~S

Leisa:

Child sweatshops existed long before capitalism. However, it got applied within capitalism to such a larger degree that something had to be done to correct the issue at that point.

To use the child sweat shops as an example, indicates that the answer to Bills question in part does involved applying some rules of decency for business underneath the overlaying economic system.

Honor systems don't won't, likewise a purely legal system as our culture is becoming, also doesn't work.

This is why Bill's question caught my eye. It is far more important than I think many realize, since in many respects our economic systems at a crux. From many different directions. I think we will be seeing many changes in the way we do business over the next 5 to ten years. Questions like Bills will help influence how we as a culture begin to apply change to our business models now.

If this truly is a time of change, a time of historic crux. Then that also means its a time of great opportunity indeed. And that opportunity cuts in many directions including helping make some difference to improve society. Hence why Bills Question is so important to me.

Here is an article by the pro’s pro Charlie Maxwell on peak oil timeframes.

http://tinyurl.com/34arpu

Odds and ends: just came back from enjoying the incredible beauty of British Columbia’s mountains, always a treat. What a beautiful country. It is good to be back in the warmth of the Hawaiian sun.

I missed a lot of turbulence while away from the screens. I noticed that live mini gold quotes have been revoked. Does any one know of a source for live gold quotes or do we all need to pay the exchange $55.00 per month for the privilege of seeing prices? A fellow member listed usgold.com as a source, but the link no longer exists.

Increased margin rates for gold are not a negative to me, it will shake out weak players who are over leveraged, that’s ok. The price of gold has moved quite a bit and it is probably justified. I would object to changing the percentage make-up of indexes to screw the longs such as Paulsen pulled on us before.

I’m looking forward to Bill’s book being released in February. After perusing the sites discourse and Bill’s comments since I’ve been away, I can only say I now know why its one of my two favorite sites on the web.

Thank you Bill and thank you all other contributors.

Aloha T3d

Here is an article by the pro’s pro Charlie Maxwell on peak oil timeframes.

http://tinyurl.com/34arpu

Odds and ends: just came back from enjoying the incredible beauty of British Columbia’s mountains, always a treat. What a beautiful country. It is good to be back in the warmth of the Hawaiian sun.

I missed a lot of turbulence while away from the screens. I noticed that live mini gold quotes have been revoked. Does any one know of a source for live gold quotes or do we all need to pay the exchange $55.00 per month for the privilege of seeing prices? A fellow member listed usgold.com as a source, but the link no longer exists.

Increased margin rates for gold are not a negative to me, it will shake out weak players who are over leveraged, that’s ok. The price of gold has moved quite a bit and it is probably justified. I would object to changing the percentage make-up of indexes to screw the longs such as Paulsen pulled on us before.

I’m looking forward to Bill’s book being released in February. After perusing the sites discourse and Bill’s comments since I’ve been away, I can only say I now know why its one of my two favorite sites on the web.

Thank you Bill and thank you all other contributors.

Aloha T3d

Bush is delivering his address to the nation right now. I bet he doesn't mention the following:

David M. Walker, the nation's top accountant, has warned Americans about the consequences of a federal debt he says is on an unsustainable course.

Walker, who heads the Government Accountability Office (GAO), says that the federal debt has soared during the last two decades -- from $2.13 trillion in 1986 to $5.22 trillion in 1996 and $8.51 trillion in 2006. The federal debt now stands near $9 trillion.

The government will incur an additional debt of $50 trillion during the next 20 years, according to GAO figures. The federal debt increases every time there is a budget deficit at the end of the fiscal year. A budget deficit occurs when the government spends more than it receives in revenue, as it has for the past five fiscal years and 16 of the past 20, according to the Office of Management and Budget.

Walker said it is necessary to balance the budget within the next five years, make a down payment on the $50 trillion imbalance and begin reforming government programs.

Craig, 2nd

Yes I also saw that BMD move today, unfortunately I'm not currently in it. But the charts look interesting and will watch more closely.

Its a pain when you have to work during the day.

Here's a copy of the chart w/ notes I posted a couple of weeks ago, currently stalled at the downtrend resistance line, but divergences and indicators showing promise.

BMD.to chart +22% Jan 28th 2008
http://tinyurl.com/246m6b

Activedollars thinks that the next 2 weeks will be the most important weeks in the financial markets in over 20 years.

Commodities are trying to reassert themselves in uptrends as the US dollar falls... everyone is quite fascinated by gold and soft commodities.
Will the US dollar stabalize?

Will the Central Bankers throw in the towel and allow these inflationary and stagflationary pressures to build - to counter the fallout as the paper money pyramids unwind?

Or will they let nature take its course?

Inflate or die?

Activedollars hopes the Central Banks do the right thing.

Société Général faces legal action after share disposal
By Iain Dey
Last Updated: 1:11am GMT 29/01/2008

Société Générale faces legal action after it emerged that a member of the French bank's board sold shares worth €95m (£71m) just days before the "rogue trader" scandal emerged.

Robert Day, one of America's richest men, dumped the stock in three separate transactions on January 9 and 10, according to documents filed with the French market regulator, the AMF.

News of the share sale prompted a group of 130 SocGen shareholders to file a legal complaint against the bank in Paris yesterday.

Frederik-Karel Canoy, a lawyer acting for the shareholder group, said the complaint was not related to the rogue trader scandal, but to the €2bn write-down the bank has taken to cover its exposure to sub-prime losses. He said the group questioned the "precision and sincerity" of the bank's financial disclosures about its exposure to underperforming American home loans.

The shares were sold at prices between €95.2 and €95.9. SocGen's shares plunged to a three year-low yesterday, falling almost 4pc to €71.05……

http://tinyurl.com/2m2ctg

craig- BMD/UXG/NOT would have made it a pretty good day...actually, thanks to bill and all of you, could wrap it up after 4 weeks in january and call it a good year ;)

spent the weekend reading a little about oil in africa->specifically, John Ghazvinian's Untapped...what a great read...

picked up a little GFI/SLW late this afternoon...

if the strength in asia helps to rally the US tomorrow, will be looking to sell and/or short, but with an eye on possible reactions to fomc on wednesday...

thanks for your continuing support, see you tomorrow...

Tbar may be correct with that GS short gold graph. For some reason, my recollection of the TOCOM listing of GS gold short interest from last summer, early fall, was it was more than what is currently reflected. Unfortunately, I did not record the numbers for reference and did not check it this winter. Don't know if any others followed this or recall.

g034, I remember GS changing their commodity index gas component percentage that affected the price in the past. According to Wikipedia, GS has gold at 1.89% and silver at 0.24% of the GSCI index. Seems too small to have a big impact if percentages changed.

http://tinyurl.com/2d8w7l Scroll down to see the component weights.

Looks like the margin change noted in an above link is the first move.

Fed risks 'blood on the floor' on rate cuts
Last Updated: 1:11am GMT 29/01/2008

The Federal Open Markets Committee may want further rate cuts but inflation fears limit their options, writes David Litterick

The Federal Reserve building is just one grand government building among many that line the Washington Mall.

Yet eight times a year, a functional room on the second floor of the Beaux Arts structure plays host to a meeting that has the potential to do nothing less than shape the course of the entire world economy.

http://tinyurl.com/2pgxx8

Craig,

Leave it to you to uncivilize a discussion.

Is activedollars a professional athlete?

gold not moving down on the news.

Seamus - The gas story was just an example that I remembered to solidify Bill's comment on surprises that may change prices. I felt sorry for those traders that were caught on the wrong side of that trade. It wouldn't surprise me if a few lives were "ruined" that day - I've known a few who took their lives in similar circumstances. What a shame.

Is activedollars a professional athlete?

gold not moving down on the news.

Seamus - The gas story was just an example that I remembered to solidify Bill's comment on surprises that may change prices. I felt sorry for those traders that were caught on the wrong side of that trade. It wouldn't surprise me if a few lives were "ruined" that day - I've known a few who took their lives in similar circumstances. What a shame.

Shell sparks fears over oil reserves
By Russell Hotten
Last Updated: 1:10am GMT 29/01/2008

Royal Dutch Shell is to delay publication of key data about its oil reserves that it would normally have released alongside profits figures being published on Thursday.

The decision has disappointed some analysts, who have been told that the subject will not even be "up for discussion" and which has sparked concern the reserves numbers could be poor.

http://tinyurl.com/2zs87k

ECB aid to Spanish banks matches Rock rescue
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 1:27am GMT 29/01/2008

Spanish banks are issuing mortgage securities and asset-backed bonds on a massive scale to park at the European Central Bank, using them as collateral to raise money at favourable rates from the official credit window in Frankfurt.

The rating agency Moody's said lenders had issued a record €53bn (£39bn) in the fourth quarter, yet almost none of the securities have actually been placed on the open market. Most have been sent directly to the ECB for use in "repo" operations.

"The market has shut down," said Sandie Arlene Fernandez, the author of the report.

"Few, if any, of the transactions in the RBMS market (mortgage securities) have been placed since September. Some of the banks are hoping that the market will open up again but most are just preparing these deals to use as repos, which they can do since the ECB accepts AAA-rated securities," she said.

The total volume of securities issued since the credit crunch began to bite in July has reached €63bn……..

http://tinyurl.com/yplcss

Somebody was asking just what I thought aboot $930 gold. Well, we're "there," man, but the breeze did not blow back our collective mane. We have arrived in L.A. with a pair of sunglasses, but no convertible yet. More like a peacenik style volkswagen van.

But just the same, there should be a debate going on between the draughts of marijuana smoke we are all smoking, on the subject of whether gold outperforms silver during a credit crisis. I have my doubts. More precisely, if bullion the circus master is to outperform its poor ringling cousin, silver, then I would say that it has a daunting task set out before it.

We could see a couple of more weeks of aggressive buying in the gold bullion, but the higher it gets, the more painful the downer, dude. And that in the same period Gold goes into seasonal weakness. They will strike up the band in New Orleans and march bullion's regrettable funeral before we see price appreciation again in the ensuing weeks.

But Greg Silberman, ever the patient accountant, is busy ciphering away:

Just How Undervalued Are Junior Gold Stocks?

http://blog.goldandoilstocks.com/2008/01/junior-miners-just-how-undervalued.html

(I rented "The Big Lebowski" and the documentary "Bukowski" in the same week, man.)

"Craig, Leave it to you to uncivilize a discussion."

Posted by: Jaketh at January 28, 2008 10:15 PM

Yeah, but look at how Fred came along, added some excellent information and civilized my mess.

Sorry Jaketh, but I've had enough of the low/no tax-income redistribuion whitewash. Politicians saying they are going to cut taxes means they really are saying they are going to borrow more and hide the deficit by issuing treasury debt.
Someone better start responding, and a bit forcefully, or we are as good as bankrupt. When a person exhausts the limits on their credit card, it's time to double up on the payments and pay it off, not cut the payments to the minimum and charge more on another card. It's time for politicians to tell the truth. Something has to give.

Thanks for noticing my unique talent.

well, we can all breath easy now, because Bush said he is putting his foot down on politicians pet projects (excluding the ones he approved last week of course):

"Last night, in the domestic centerpiece of his final State of the Union speech, Bush decided to let Romney keep its money but vowed never to allow it again. In the eighth year of his presidency,