Glad you're back up, Bill.

I'm sure we all missed the community chat today.

Thanks for all that you do.

Good job Bill
Looks like I get to be the first to post on your new bandwidth expansion under taking.

Bill thanks for the work in getting back up and running. And thanks to SI02 for getting me into skype . I was jonesing my cara fix. TRY Skype. Its a good thing
Sold UNG at 7% gain. And it was in my broker acct that I am reducing permanently.
Bought small pos in WAG and GE
peace

I really enjoyed this commentary, Bill, so much so that I just printed it out.

Bill, thank you, again, for all you do, and for hanging in there, through all your computer problems. We really appreciate your work. And we miss you when you're gone. :-)

I'm glad to see the migration went well.

Great commentary as always. HB&B must fume when they read your comments.

Today I sold my MELI and UYG into the morning strength for a nice profit.

I wasn't brave enough to short anything and am mostly in cash for the weekend.

Cheers to excellent trading next week. It should be a crazy one with everything going on next week.

Rob.

Bill!

Great that the blog is back.

All,

Enjoy the weekend.

Cheers

Bill
Excellent summary of trading, I enjoy your blog every day and greatly appreciate the pearls of trading wisdom

Exceptional summary of the goals and the process, Bill. Thanks!

Truely impressive comments today at Roubini's blog. http://tiny.pl/lhrc
I will partially quote one here..... "Rose Wilder Lane, an expert on how power centers have changed throughout history, wrote a revealing take on the subject in the 1940s. IMO, if Lane were here today, she would warn those who love free enterprise, capitalism and respect for individual rights of the dangers of a transfer of power beyond America’s borders which ultimately could smash her control of her destiny. Wrote Lane:

Do you assume that this new world can not vanish? This world that your grandfather could not imagine, and that your children now take for granted, do you think that your grand-children must sure inherit it?

Do you imagine that the planes can not be grounded, the factories close, the radio be silent and the telephone dead and the cars rust and the trains stop? Do you suppose that darkness and cold and hunger and disease, that have never before been so defeated and that now are defeated only on this small part of the earth, can never again break in upon all human beings? Do not be so short-sighted.

The energies of living individuals must constantly create these defenses of human life and these extensions of human owners.

Relinquish the free use of individual energies, and these defenses must vanish as the Roman galleys vanished. This whole modern world must disappear as completely as the Saracens’ swift, clean, healthy and luxurious world disappeared. Every effect ceases when its cause no longer operates.

This whole modern civilization, that is not fifty years old, that is not yet established on any large part of the earth, can cease to exist. From “The Discovery of Freedom: Man’s Struggle Against Authority”

Ok, I have come to depend so much on the Community here for thoughts, news and ideas, that after two of my stops were taken out this morning, I was more than happy to just sit back and watch everything hustle and bustle itself about!

Great week for learning indeed!

Thanks again, Bill and all!

long side looking better after the sell-off today...

back into a full position with SNDK, reopened (minor) stakes in INTC, FXI, UYG...back into GFI on (yet another) excuse for a gap down...

if anyone bought the opening drop in FXP, congrats->thought about it, but didn't do it...

hope the weekend weather looks better for you than it does here, as another storm moves into the bay area...

I almost bought back UYG at a lower basis at the close but didn't. I'm definitely interested in SNDK but what if earnings leaves them like it left Softie?

I just don't trust direction enought to hold much over the weekend except for my long term options.

Rob.

Even the press thinks the market is a casino these days.

"Wall Street ended a tumultuous week with a sharp decline Friday, backtracking following two days of stunning gains as investors turned cautious and cashed in some of their winnings."

http://tinyurl.com/yv7y47

Rob.

Glad to see you made it through the upgrade and everything is "contained".
Looking forward to the book being published.

US slides into dangerous 1930s 'liquidity trap'
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Davos
Last Updated: 12:29am GMT 25/01/2008

The United States is sliding towards a dangerous 1930s-style "liquidity trap" that cannot easily be stopped by drastic cuts in interest rates, Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz has warned.

Get full coverage of Davos 2008
The Fed did not panic. It has a disaster to avert
"The biggest fear is that long-term bond rates won't come down in line with short-term rates. We'll have the reverse of what we've seen in recent years, and that is what is frightening the markets," he told the Daily Telegraph, while trudging through ice and snow in Davos.

Stiglitz is worried about the level of long-term interest rates
"The mechanism of monetary policy is ineffective in these circumstances. I'm not saying it won't work at all: it will help the banking system but the credit squeeze is going to go on because nobody trusts anybody else. The Fed is pushing on a string," he said.

The grim comments came as markets continued to suffer wild gyrations, reacting to every sign of contagion spreading to Europe, Asia, and emerging markets.

Wall Street has begun to stabilize on talk of a rescue for the embattled bond insurers, MBIA and Ambac.

The Fed's 75 basis point rate cut allows the banks to replenish their balance sheet by borrowing at short-term rates and lending longer term, playing the credit 'carry trade', hence the 9pc rise in the US financials index yesterday. But confidence remains fragile.

advertisement

Professor Stiglitz, former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said it takes far too long for monetary policy to work its magic. This will not gain much traction in the midst of a housing crash.

"People have been drawing home equity out of the houses at a rate of $700bn or $800bn a year. It's been a huge boost to consumption, but that game is now up. House prices are going to continue falling, and lower rates won't stop that this point," he said.

"As a Keynesian, I'd say the biggest back for the buck in terms of immediate stimulus would be unemployment assistance and tax rebates for the poor. That will feed through quickly, but set against the magnitude of the problem, even a fiscal stimulus package of $150bn is not going to be enough," he said

"The distress is going to be very severe. Around 2m people have lost all their savings," he did.

NASDAQ president Bob Greifeld expressed a rare note of optimism at the World Economic Forum, predicting a swift rally as the double effects of the monetary and fiscal boost lift spirits.

"I think the stimulus package that's been proposed by the President, to the extent that this is passed in rapid fashion by Congress, has the ability to forestall a recession," he said.

"At the moment, our business is doing better than it ever has because the volumes have been incredibly high. So, it's been very good for us," he said.

There were scattered signs of improvement across the world today, with Germany's IFO confidence index defying expectations with a slight rise in January. Japan's quarterly export volume held up better than expected.

Even so, the global downturn may already have acquired an unstoppable momentum, requiring months or even years to purge the excesses from the bubble.

Professor Stiglitz blamed the whole US economic establishment for failing to regulate the housing and credit markets adequately, allowing huge imbalances to build up.

"The Federal Reserve and the Bush Administration didn't want to hear anything about these problems. The Fed has finally got around to closing the stable door (on subprime lending), but the after the horse has already bolted," he said.

http://tiny.cc/IhRUV

Bill, fantastic comments. The points you made about using options as a "stink" bid or "stink" ask are particular useful. I still have not delved into options, but I think (through reading this blog) that I've finally wrapped my head around it and am ready to start augmenting my profits with options contracts.

This community is really of the highest tier. One of its greatest strengths is how little "bashing" and "spamming" occur. This sort of crap greatly detracts from other public realms, but due to insightful posts such as today's you've managed to attract a fantasticly focused crowd. Thank you for everything.

Bill,

When might we expect you to offer managed accts? I thought you were anticipating the Jan-Feb timeframe.

ROTH IRA's provide the unique opportunity of earning tax-free interest/captial gains. However, many of you probably have not been able to take advantage of this because you earn too much, while other's cannot take full-advantage because there is a per year contribution cap. Well, both groups should keep the following in mind.

In 2010 the $100,000 adjusted gross incoming limitation on converting traditional IRA's to ROTH IRA's is being lifted. This is very important if you already have a traditional IRA because you can convert to a ROTH, pay the taxes, and once you earn enough interest/capital gains (less than 3 years at 10% per year) to cover the tax paid (plus a bit more in opportunity costs) then the rest of the gains for the remainder of your life are tax free. Great huh!

... and why does this matter if the yearly contribution cap is holding you back? Well, 401K's (often matched up to a point by employers) can be converted to ROTH IRA's when you leave the job starting this year (you used to have to convert to a traditional IRA and then from a traditional to a ROTH if you qualified). So if you contribute the $15,000K max to your 401K and get a company match of +-$3000, then when you quit your job/get laid off you can convert that money to a ROTH and effectively increase your yearly contributionto ($18000-taxes)+$5000 or about $17600 per year.

Contributing that much to your ROTH while making less than $100,000 AGI isn't that easy, but after 2010 there are many that could easily do this. I'm astounded at this revelation. Being only 23 years old, it means that I could put anywhere from $100,000 to $176,000 in my ROTH IRA over the next decade (depending on yearly contributions to the plan and my willingnes to switch employers) and let that compound tax-free until I'm 59 1/2 and am able to withdraw. Further, if I make enough in that account over the years then I could just start living off of it because the early withdrawal penalty is only 10%. So I would effectively get taxed at 10% on the post-tax money plus tax free gains that I withdrew. Not bad!

What a terrific, instructive discourse today, Bill. Thank you for writing it. We really appreciate it.

Ohh, I should mention that for non-U.S. residents/citizens I have no idea what sort of retirement plans there are. So my discussion of ROTH IRA's and the tax implications probably don't apply.

Photogray, thank you so much for posting the detailed quote from Rose Wilder Lane's book. I've
heard of Lane's work; now that I got a taste of it, I'm going to see if I can get a copy from the library.

Again, thanks for taking the time to post the detailed quote from her book.

~ Gemma Star

PS: I loved the photographs on your site!! Did you take all of them??

saddleb,
I think you can withdraw from a Roth IRA before 59 1/2 without tax by limiting your withdrawal to the money you contributed and leaving the profits there to continue compounding until you're over 60. BUT I'm not an accountant, so do check with the IRS. Actually, the law may have changed a bit before you start taking money out unless you're an exceptionally successful 23:>)

Gemma Star. Thank you. Yes they are my photos.

I was intrigued by the quote also. She was a remarkable woman. I searched and came up with the following:

In 1917 I became a convinced, though not practicing communist. In Russia, for some reason, I wasn't and I said so, but my understanding of Bolshevism made everything pleasant when the Cheka arrested me a few times.

I am now a fundamentalist American; give me time and I will tell you why individualism, laissez faire and the slightly restrained anarchy of capitalism offer the best opportunities for the development of the human spirit. Also I will tell you why the relative freedom of human spirit is better -- and more productive, even in material ways -- than the communist, Fascist, or any other rigidity organized for material ends.

peace
Gray

Correction as follows

Gemma Star. Thank you. Yes they are my photos.

I was intrigued by the quote also. She was a remarkable woman. I searched and came up with the following quote:

"In 1917 I became a convinced, though not practicing communist. In Russia, for some reason, I wasn't and I said so, but my understanding of Bolshevism made everything pleasant when the Cheka arrested me a few times.

I am now a fundamentalist American; give me time and I will tell you why individualism, laissez faire and the slightly restrained anarchy of capitalism offer the best opportunities for the development of the human spirit. Also I will tell you why the relative freedom of human spirit is better -- and more productive, even in material ways -- than the communist, Fascist, or any other rigidity organized for material ends."

peace
Gray

Bill,
Wondering if your Guyana gold mine project is anywhere near the GUY.TO Aurora property, and/or whether you're familiar with this area. Guyana seems to have a lot of the promise of Venezuala without the overburden of Chavez. Sounds quite promising, but the chart looks like its rolling over and headed down.
Amazing how empty the day was without your blog - thank you again, and also the rest of the Caraistas, for my continuing education.
Chris

Risk Awards 2008:

Equity Derivatives House of the Year - Société Générale

LOL

http://tinyurl.com/2ucod2

"At the moment, our business is doing better than it ever has because the volumes
have been incredibly high. So, it's been very good for us."

NASDAQ president Bob Greifeld at the World Economic Forum