Bill,
In the meanwhile, I did a small Cara-like analysis of the market and it seems like there will be mind-boggling, earth-shattering changes in the asset allocation prefference this month,check it out, Rob
http://www.WallastonInvestments.com

Anyone know where one can go to get info on actual foreign holdings of $ or teasuries. Including soverign investment opools. I see statements that China holds XXX and Saudis hold XXX but where can one go to see the real numbers?

CapitalStreetGroup: You had a question yesterday at 1:13 p.m. on HXD.TO, why it doesn't seem to track the underlying market index.

Just before market opening yesterday I noticed the bid/ask on HXD both spike up to $26.00, having been roughly $24.50 to $25.00 only minutes before. I entered a market order to sell just after opening, and the order was executed at $25.50
(09:34).

In the first minute of trading (09:34 to 09:35) the price dropped from $25.50 to $24.75. I interpreted the price spike as an order imbalance, with excess buyers, but there may be other explanations. My chart on IB shows a little
over 150,000 units executed in the first minute.

On Tuesday I had a similar experience with HEU.TO. I had limit buy orders in at $13.00 and $12.75, and had both filled at $12.74 at opening, the low of the day.

It seems to me that there has been considerable panic buying/selling over the last few days on the opening, which produces short term price anomolies. Hope this helps.

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

GRMN - to Outperform @ Oppenheimer
STO - to Buy @ Citigroup

-------------------------------------------------

Other Stocks of Interest:

AAUK upgraded to Buy @ Citigroup

-------------------------------------------------

Jim Cramer has called a bottom.

"What do you call a 600-point swing to the upside after retesting a low?" Jim Cramer asked viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Wednesday. "A bottom!"

Those of you who use Cramer as a contrarian indicator take note.

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

Looks like a French bank is getting it on the nose today.

"LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Societe Generale has uncovered a massive 4.9 billion-euro ($7.1 billion) fraud linked to a single rogue futures trader, France's second-largest bank said Thursday."

http://tinyurl.com/yuxuac

Wonder if I should get off the HGD tracks to avoid this train...

How should this affect the markets?

"The cost of insuring against five-year debt of MBIA Inc., the world's largest bond insurer, reached over 700 basis points this month from under 100 in mid-October, according to data company Markit -- more than $700,000 for $10 million of debt."

I remember seeing a couple years back that it was less than $60k to insure many of these CDOs... doesn't that mean the insurance companies are robbing the banks?

Craig, sorry to hear about your loss. There's something true about man's best friend. You have my sympathy.

Fertilizers on fire in the premarket after POT reports earnings and sees strong earnings ahead.

Thank You Seamus. Today I celebrate Belle. I'm really trying to live like a dog. No ladies, that's not what I mean! Ever notice how dogs are always in the moment? Always have time to play? Always loyal and committed? How gracefully they handle injury, illness and even death? Just look at how they handle our inability to understand them and the ensuing cruelty. I respect dogs a lot.

Belle lived a great life. I celebrate that and hope I can live up to half of her abilities in the art of life.

Craig,

Ditto Seamus's sentiments. I too was sorry to read of your loss. I'm a dog lover and know how hard it can be.

Regards

Craig...

I sometimes envy people like you. I have major allergies and my one dream has been to have a dog sometime in my life. My wife has said my only flaw is the fact that I am so allergic to pets.

My goal ( Buy some land somewhere warm, where I can build a separate house for me (my wife will live with the dog at that point) and have all the joys that a pet brings...

My sympathies...

Hi,

As equities gradually recover, I am now looking at gold.

True that we have seen gold do some of a retracement, but it does not seem enough for long entries at least before 850 is tested again.

I would like to hear the Community's comments re this.

Cheers!

Cara 100 Update:

GOOG - downgraded to Hold @ Stanford Research

"where I can build a separate house for me (my wife will live with the dog at that point)"

bg- ??

WGW up 8%...
NOT.v up 6%...

bg Have heard about non allergenic cats being bred and studied. Maybe they'll try (or have done)the same with dogs. Perhaps Craig would know.

2nd Ave...

Just making a joke...My wife says that when I die..She is buying a dog...

She loves me, but sometimes I think she would rather have a dog :^)

WGW- partial sales at 3.57->opening an HGD.TO hedge at 9.47 (USD)...

trading halt on ecu silver...
estimates out soon i guess?

Was trying to do some DD on ECU Silver but unable to to bring it up on optionsxpress. Anyone know the otc ticket symbol? Maybe I can find it that way.

Gold price forecasting:

http://tinyurl.com/ywbd3n

Looking for Silver to outperforn Gold, possibly dropping the Gold/Silver ratio to 40 vs the current 55. On it's way to 31:1 long term mean ultimately, with overshoot to 16:1 possible.

Gold has seasonal weakness in summer.

Note Platinum hitting all time high overnight.

Platinum may see increased industrial use as clean Diesel vehicles are produced. Gasoline powered vehicles can use Palladium catalysts.

My estimates of near term Gold is 1050 and for Silver 17.50, based on the flag chart patterns. Possibly +30% by early 2009.

They say that poodles (great dogs actually--the full-size ones--unshaved) and labradoodles & golden-doodles (bred as cross between lab or golden retriever & poodle), which are becoming established as separate breeds that breed true, don't shed and are easier on people w/ allergies. Good dogs--smart & playful (smart part comes from the poodle).

FXI- sold out AH last night in the 150 range->thought briefly about re-opening this morning...hope some of you did...may well revisit 163+ if/when a sustainable rally takes shape...

ECUXF in the states; ECU.to (TSE)

SNDK- up 4%...

2nd_ave...

Wish I would have sold more puts in SNDK yesterday...

This baby is going to fly...Did you see the FEB 30 calls yesterday...Take a look at the volume...Something is up...

maromatics...

I Think the gold train has left the station for now...Been watching the TOCOM..the place where the big boys can't hide...

THE shorts in gold 90+% of them are getting killed with gold above 900.00...They will have to make a decision and add to the shorts or COVER....

I bet they cover and send gold higher in the short term...Don't think you will see that pullback to 850.00 until broad market starts to sell off again...

Thanks Seamus!

BG - I grew up with big dogs (mutts mostly) and with a daughter with asthma and husband with allergies I had to find a dog they could live with. Through word of mouth and research I found a great “little dog with a big personality” in the Tibetan Terriers. We have two who love to walk and play with the kids. Downside is that they are expensive and need to be groomed every other month since they have hair instead of fur.

Craig – sorry for your loss, our older dog is 11 and I am dreading the day.

Thanks to Bill and all on the board, the discourse has been invaluable this week.

Miggs

Aurator Platinum big jewelry play in Asia (Japan, China) Think that plays into it as well.

Don't have live price feed on ECU or NOT so certainly appreciate some occassional price/move updates. Thanks!

Addendum Have positions in both ECU & NOT

I question whether the lack of significant XAU retracement / consolidation matters significantly given an environment of ever-closer (and more extreme) rate cuts, central bank activities, bailouts, etc. We might be at a point where price deviates somewhat from traditional fundamentals. Personally I doubt we're at any blow-off point yet, and lack of significant consolidation can be seen as a weakness. Given the environment, I've been long with tight stops, (not as tight as when we first topped $880). And I'll be tightening them as we approach what basketguy noted, a broad sell-off.

bg- hope you're right, man...wife loaded up on SNDK yesterday...

Bill,
Your comments today are the best ever. Of course, the past couple of days they have been incredible as well but I wasn't here until late yesterday so I missed most of the fun :(

Craig,
Sorry to hear about your loss. We have a cat that's about 15 and I fear we'll lose her soon too.

Market,
A 50 point cut is pretty much priced into LIBOR now with the 1 month at 3.28 and the 3 month at 3.24.

Is the jump in Gold today pricing in that fact or will it jump even further after they cut?

And what about the stimulus package? If we just get tax rebates I would think it would weaken the dollar and strengthen Gold but what if they cut or eliminate the capital gains tax? That would strengthen the dollar and weaken Gold I would think.

Any opinions?

Rob.

FXI- looking for a pullback to reopen a position...

2nd_ave...

I am almost confident enough to cover your losses if I am wrong. O.K. I can't go that far, but there is something up and we will know by Monday....

starting to get our pullback...

Rally losing steam.

From Bubblevision:

Rumors that the economic stimulus package is now down to $300 from $800.

-------------------------------------------------

Truth be told....the US Treasury can't afford to dispense coupons for Big Macs. IMHO.

For allergies, it's the dander that is usually the problem.

The poodles, Briards and Bichon are some of the breeds that don't shed or have the dander of some of the other breeds. Regular (once a week) bathing/grooming makes a huge difference for some people. It all depends on your specific allergy.

Finger Lakes: Didn't mention it here, but we just had to euthanize one of our old cats...was 23 years old and lived outside for all but the last 6 mos of his life. Everything is old around here....LOL!

Wow...looks like my SKF is working/coming back.
I wonder if this rally has legs?

Craig and basketguy, I have long history of allergies myself. I have a chihuahua/terrier mix and have no problems with allergies at all. In fact, the little fellow is sitting in my lap as I tap away.

Oh, btw, existing home sales came in lower than expected. But builders are not giving back any of their outsized gains over past few days. They will collapse again, but not today it seems.

Good morning!

Now I know what it's like to have one's trading platform fail; my TD ameritrade access is kaput.
Anyone experiencing this now?

Good trading to all;

I am trying to get my streamer in Ameritrade to function. This is the second time this week I have had a problem. I can get into my account today, but my real-time quotes are crap!

Re: Silver Price Advances

Given that the gold/silver ratio is an expression of how credit markets are faring, then the assumption is that gold will advance against silver for the long term. The outlook on silver is that it is the quintessential speculative metal.

However, compared with a lack of advance in the gold/silver ratio, which would indicate an absence of speculative capital relying on credit, our silver price has been faring quite nicely.

Why? Who knows.

But this puts the test on the assumption that gold alone will advance in a deflation. This is now proven quite wrong. Yes, silver advancing against gold denotes a speculative market, and a decline in the gold/silver ratio can pick out your top in gold prices, but so far, the idea that the gold/silver ratio demonstrates anything to do with the velocity of money in and out of silver itself is now proven wrong.

A better indicator of performance in gold and by relation to the precious metals markets, silver, is how major currencies fare against the $US and whether bullion prices track along it.(for now, it will be the ¥/$ cross.)

Once that trend is over and bullion decouples from the currency cross it trends along with now, that will be a better indicator of 'where we are.'

I believe that once the market clues in to how silver will continue to outperform, and that this makes an excellent vehicle for returns, then we will see a major push into speculative junior miners with exposure to silver and gold.

not sure if it will get any better than this->scaling back into FXI at 148 and change...

I would think miners like NEM would be rallying more today with Gold at 909 presently. Could this be a sign of a short-term top in Gold?

Rob.

An interim high for the $US gold price would be ~$930.- Seasonality should not be ignored here, since we are trending into the seasonal lows by March. So sideways trade for a few weeks once that is accomplished.

Little help here....

What is the downside of selling jan 09 17.5 puts on INTC if you don't mind owning at 17.50.

Just want to make sure I'm not missing something.

Thanks

Our dramatic correction on Monday/Tuesday:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHjFxJVeCQs

(this had been going around on the net)

re: ameritrade Streamer quotes:
They're working on it according to the recorded message, played while I wait in queue for fifteen minutes.....

ABK and MBI in freefall again after Fitch cuts Security Capital to A from AAA after Security Capital abandons plans to raise 2 Billion.

If they want this rally to have legs some banks will have to step up soon and save these insurers, otherwise we're going to Bill's prediction for a low sooner rather than later.

Rob.

Anyone planning trades on the "stimulus package"?

Financials not the greatest today, do they bounce on "stimulus" or tank when the fed does nothing or only .25 basis pts?

NOT.V alert...

2nd, Give it to me, I'm sans data.

Jan 24, 2008 11:16 ET
ECU Silver Doubles NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate and Highlights Significant Potential Resources
Highlights

- Measured & Indicated Resources have increased by 116% to 38 million ounces of silver equivalent.

- Inferred Resources have increased by 121% to 179 million ounces of silver equivalent.

- Potential Resources have increased by 1,300% - 1,365% to 465 - 807 million ounces of silver equivalent.

ECU.TO still halted, bid/ask at 2.11

Jan 24, 2008 11:16 ET
ECU Silver Doubles NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate and Highlights Significant Potential Resources
Highlights
- Measured & Indicated Resources have increased by 116% to 38 million ounces of silver equivalent.
- Inferred Resources have increased by 121% to 179 million ounces of silver equivalent.
- Potential Resources have increased by 1,300% - 1,365% to 465 - 807 million ounces of silver equivalent.
http://tinyurl.com/259dh5
Disclosure: No position in ECU

ECU

ECU Silver Doubles NI 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate and Highlights Significant Potential Resources
Thursday January 24, 11:16 am ET
Highlights
- Measured & Indicated Resources have increased by 116% to 38 million ounces of silver equivalent.
- Inferred Resources have increased by 121% to 179 million ounces of silver equivalent.
- Potential Resources have increased by 1,300% - 1,365% to 465 - 807 million ounces of silver equivalent.

http://tinyurl.com/2ma8jm

I'm looking at $2.12 bid on the TSE, not sure when it will reopen.

The state of the union will probably have all sorts of 'stimulus' announcements. Financials should rally after that, which might be a good time to short again.

Can someone give me a real time quote for NOT?

Craig, my last tick shows 3.38 on NOT.V

ECU

TSE site states resumption at 11:45 AM

bid now 2.15, but most bid action in the 2.00 range

ECU

TSE site states resumption at 11:45 AM

bid now 2.15, but most bid action in the 2.00 range

server crash error

Watching the NDX/QID relationship all morning -hovering around 1:1 versus targeted 1:2 - indicating traders skeptical of continued NDX increase even with 8 of top 10 NDX up

Similarly FXI:FXP, XLF/SKF shorts not betting on continued decline

DIA/DXD and SPX/SDS maintaining 1:2

Other interpretations?

ecu.to / ecuxf will start trading at 11:45...fido showing bids at 2.12 (closed yesterday at 1.85 CAD)

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/080124/200801240438193001.html?.v=1

Thanks Billy, 2nd must mean it's a buy alert.

ecu.to 2.36 - thank you kaimu!

RobBoss: Not sure I udernstand your post. Are you trying to determine relative strength among the indices? Using price relative to intraday pivots and a price rel strength comparison will tell you that, and which to go long or short.

Are you trying to determine which indices is more popular today? Look at volume

All 3 are consolidating in a tight range above yesterdays high..a short term bullish sign...lets see what happens after 12:00 PST

Silver is a contender in the precious metals markets and a speculative runner. It does appear that silver will make some headway against gold prices in the near term.

But the one thing that would favour gold against silver in the long term is a major silver discovery in the billion ounce range.

Maggy,

You asked: "What is the downside of selling jan 09 17.5 puts on INTC if you don't mind owning at 17.50."

Very simply, if you sell 1 $17.50 put and if INTC falls to $12.00 (for example), you stand the risk of being "assigned". This means, you would be forced to purchase 100 shares of INTC in your account at the cost of $17.50 when INTC is trading at $12.

If you were not aware of the above, before you sell options, especially naked ones, you should familiarize yourself with the potentially huge losses you could incur.

paulson +/- bernanke fly to zurich today or tomorrow...obviously, market rally must show signs of longevity to enusre a pleasant stay...

bill

socgens fraud man- jerome kerviel

my best anagram is

er...me? evil joker?
------------------------------

thanks for sparklng analysis recently, esp SNDK

Where are the markets hopes? Well, since financials and homebuilders are leading the way up I'd say that the market has placed its hopes in another rate cut by the Fed, and a bail out of the bond insurance companies, and the stimulus package. I was thinking, $800 would just about cover many peoples rent. Could it be that the administration is trying to get this stimulus package out so that the people who are more than a month behind on their mortgages can pay a month? That would sure boost the default statistics.

Looks like the stimuli package has focused on lowering the corporate tax rate for business, the rate cut is still being debated. The working poor will be tax reprieved $300 in 2007, to be added to 2008 adjusted gross income.
The stimulus package should help the corporations deduct any weekend golf outings from the now 100% allowable deduction to a new rate of 150% total deduction.
The middle/low income working tax payers will feel cheated when they see their stimuli has shrunk, through deflation, from the $800 initial figure to the $300 real number.

Bill,

A. your recent "buy" call on retailers like KSS and BBBY was great and should be studied by all newbies like myself...the decision making illustrates all you've preached here: 1. quality company 2. RSI emerging from below 30 3. MACD approaching 0 from negative territory 4. trade the technicals, not emotion (whole market in fear) 5. assess fundamental environment, not just technicals (possible intervention by PPT due to panic, and assessing which sectors will benefit most). In retrospect, it's spot on in every way. Thanks!

2. Sector rotation is in full force, just like you called it a week or two ago... The RSI of all of those "recession proof" sectors (utilities, health care, and staples) are down below 30--look at BMY, JNJ, KO .... now getting dumped after being pumped the last few months....ditto tech. proof of concept, as you say.

Craig - really sorry to hear about your loss, and touched with your note this morning. Dog simply are the best, and Belle's lessons of joy and understanding could be well shared throughout our world. My wife and I almost lost our 6 yr old border collie a few months ago (hit by a truck after breaking his leash to chase a motorcycle) and frankly were devastated at even that glimpse of life without him.

Cheers and safe trading :-)

As reported here two days ago :-), natural gas down to 2,536Bcf, down 155Bcf (I said 150Bcf) from last week, and down from 2,783Ncf one year ago.

UNG up 1.7%, HNU up 2.1%.

Selling 50%, and making up for the MBI and ABK fiasco and rip-off.

Craig,
Condolences. Remember, All Dogs Go to Heaven.

I must say, that the quality of the comments and the depth of knowledge by all the participants on this blog is 1st rate...

I have a question regarding market action around emergency rate cuts, I was hoping someone may be able to address...

Would it be true to say that markets don't usually reach "real" bottoms on emergency rate cuts??

thx

Thank you all.
As usual, I am honoured to be included in this community.

You are the best.

Bill...

"Once again, however, the US equity market rallied after Europe had closed"

Several times you have warn us in advance to watch what happens at the close of the European markets.
Why always after the close?

I'm trying to post for the first time in many months , TypeKey has never worked for me....we'll see .If it does work then a round of good cheer and a hearty thanks to all , esp Bill of course .
For a little perspective on the $ 800 rebate ; just learned today that our health insurance , ( for 2 ) , will go up nearly 40% starting in Mar. That's $400 more a month !

correction:warned

"Would it be true to say that markets don't usually reach "real" bottoms on emergency rate cuts??"

ad,

Without having any evidence in front of me, I'd guess that it's probably true, at least in most cases.

Emergency rate cuts, by their nature, come in times of economic trouble that most likely foretell deteriorating market conditions.

EEM:

Thanks for the comments. I am just trying to gain an intraday feel for the more liquid Ultrashorts for trading/hedging purposes.

Still (obviously) learning...Thanks to you and others.

Re: Rate Cuts & Market Bottoms

The bear market has to get going in earnest before we even discuss a market bottom. A market bottom would conceivably be reached with rates at or near zero.

Rate cuts follow short term treasuries down. The prognosis for treasury rates, is that in a deflation, they go to zero, or possibly into negative territory against depreciation.

Gold makes a good investment when it appreciates against currency, which is good insurance against declining treasury rates along with declining currency.

RobBoss...no worries..regarding the ultras..take a look at the IWM/TWM..seems to havenarrower spreads than the rest when I trade it .

Trade less....live longer...never outlive your money. :)

Craig - Should've added my condolences earlier. Sorry for your loss.

Dog Heaven = Squirrel Hell

Maggy:
Responding to your question and following up on jragusa's reply...

if you don't mind owning INTC at $17.50,
bid for jan17.50P is $1.60.
If shares get put to you, your cost is $15.90 + commission.

If shares are trading at $12.00 as in jragusa's example, your loss is $3.90 + commission - not as much as the $5.50 + commission, which you incur if you had purchased the shares. You don't get the 2.7% dividend which the shareowner would have received but the interest earned on the unexpended purchase price makes up for it.

Have you a view about INTC shares? bullish? bearish? mid term ? long term?

If I were considering selling Intel 17.50 puts, I would consider the July contract, bid at 94c.

If I were bullish on INTC, I would consider buying the shares at, say, $20.30 and writing JUL 20 calls - bid $2.23.

Ignoring dividends, and assuming 1.5% commission on share purchase and 3% commisiion on option sale,
call return 9.9%
annualized call return 20.447%
static return 9.9%
annualized static return 20.447%
downside protection 10.5%

I am no expert...this is just my humble view.

regards
joey

Bill...

Thanks ! Some level playing field....uh?

jragusa and Maggy - mitigating dangers of naked puts

"Maggy,

You asked: "What is the downside of selling jan 09 17.5 puts on INTC if you don't mind owning at 17.50."

Very simply, if you sell 1 $17.50 put and if INTC falls to $12.00 (for example), you stand the risk of being "assigned". This means, you would be forced to purchase 100 shares of INTC in your account at the cost of $17.50 when INTC is trading at $12."
______________________________________

when I sell naked puts, I force myself buy a much cheaper call at the same time, which protects against extreme losses. Maybe you spend 10% of the put premium, but you thereby protect against the extreme losses jragusa alluded to.

PS: This really CAN happen with Cara100's. I was assigned GG shares last year - after which GG plummetted!

Bloomberg is reporting that there could be some issues for the bond insurers. I didn't catch the who, but someone in New York said that any bailout of the bond insurers would take time, and that there were questions whether or not they could even handle a bail out.

I take this board's advice to heart. If you are not sure of what you are doing, you better stop. Today I seem to be trading against pro's - slipping slightly and getting frustrated. When I am outmatched, it seems better to walk away and come back to play another day.

Careful with those Globetrotter/Generals mismatches!

jsax - It's tough trading the afternoon chop. Like being in a small boat on big water in a high wind. Prices swing back & forth just enough to take out my stops, then reverse in "my" direction--with me overboard!

Jock at January 24, 2008 1:05 PM

"...when I sell naked puts, I force myself buy a much cheaper call at the same time, which protects against extreme losses. Maybe you spend 10% of the put premium, but you thereby protect against the extreme losses jragusa alluded to...."

Jock, you lost me on this one? or did you mean buy a much cheaper Put at the same time.?

thanks

ECU
Anybody looked at the results on ECU, the initial sell the news seems to be slowing and now seeing a few bids coming back in.

Basketguy,

Thank you for your comment re gold.

You have a point.

By the way, where do you check the TOCOM data?

Cheers,

"House leaders Pelosi, Boehner and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are going to hold a news conference on the economic stimulus plan at 1:30 ET, according to Reuters"

I guess any moment now, we'll see what the market thinks???

Maromatics...

Here you go...Re: Gold Where the big boyz can't hide...

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

Take a look at Goldman Sachs...Thet are like 90% short gold and getting killed...This is just one market..Imagine their other positions around the world...

still waiting for the much anticipated recession. What a joke. Have the financials aided and abetted this stock crash to force Bernankes hand? Whats a few bill in stock losses compared with total failure?
IBM,INTC,GE see no weakness anywhere. The only weakness seems to be caused by the daily drumbeat of doom,gloom,and the recession on CNBC.

Gold testing double top prediction.

NOT.V- partial sales at 3.52 USD

Good article from John Kaiser on the current environment for investing in juniors:

http://tinyurl.com/yowhbu

Bottom line: he is expecting a washout this year with a spectacular bull market next year.

[Ed: Replaced link with TinyURL]

Moab: "Bottom line: he is expecting a washout this year with a spectacular bull market next year."

He predicted a wash out the end of 2007 and the bull is 2008.

That is why I've started accumulating the Jr's, especially Tue and Wed this week. I sold the GLD and took positions in GDX and the juniors, along with Silver and Platinum.

Dear Caraistas.....hope all are well ....Craig, your words regarding your loss touched me and rang so true about our beloved pets. I hope my Cona gets to meet your Belle in "squirrel hell"...and really old goat I think the squirrels love running from the dogs as much as the dogs love to chase them ,so maybe it's really heaven for both of them ;)...basket guy,your words banged the ol' funny bone...guess your a guy who gets sent from the doghouse instead of to it, lol

NOT (CDN) as of 24 Jan 2008 at 02:15 PM EST
Last Price: 3.54 CAD

ECU (CDN) as of 24 Jan 2008 at 02:16 PM EST
Last Price: 2.01 CAD

never ____ a dull market?

Moab: "Bottom line: he is expecting a washout this year with a spectacular bull market next year."

He predicted a wash out the end of 2007 and the bull is 2008.

That is why I've started accumulating the Jr's, especially Tue and Wed this week. I sold the GLD and took positions in GDX and the juniors, along with Silver and Platinum.

Sorry for the double post. After hitting the Post button, the site hung for minutes. Next time I will copy to clipboard first to have a backup in case it bombs.

FXI-> last call...

Aurator -

He has a followup article that the washout hasn't happened yet and he doesn't know if it will happen but he is waiting for some resolution to the financial issues for the next upleg in the juniors to start.

I am seeing some juniors coming back big time since gold hit $900 but I think there is more downside to come when the bear really bites in.

OG- do you know where 'never short a dull market' originated, was it JL?

Moab: Agreed. Expect the next leg down in early March. And a big one at that. Tough to decide what to hold; maybe just use some stops.
90% green today.

Feeling under the weather - still.

Have CNBC on to hear what the knuckle heads have to say as usual. Maybe I missed it, but I haven't heard ONE comment on the move in gold today and it's up $30. Gee, I wonder why not?

Aurator,

Do you mind sharing how you arrived at the conclusion of early March?

Re gold
The ihs I spoke of yesterday broke out this morning and po's to 940ish. I expect a drop here off 912.75 spot to test the neckline around 998 where it will build another right shoulder for a much larger ihs if that pans out.
jawag (grin)

FXI/EEM testing day's highs...

SNDK also...

Sold my NOT.V at 3.50. Holding double weights in FNC.V and BMK.V in the black for now.

correction "998" should have been 898 of course.
and it could go lower,like the 1980 high for atest and accomplish the same right shoulder

p.s.Not.v looks like a falling wedge about to break out.

CNU.V holders will want to read this. Disclosure: overweight CNU.V and deep underwater. http://tinyurl.com/3b5amx

Steve C: Early March is the next calculated turn date based on Fibbonaci time series. One of my data subscriptions calculates this.

Another idea to guess a turn is the Fib retrace amounts. Fib series attempts to fit the psychological effects driving market movements. A retracement to 0.5 (of the last down leg) is Dow 12,707, and 0.618 is 12,960. I think we will visit one of these.

Assuming this plays out, then we have a battle between a huge Elliot wave leg 3 down, and the Keystone Cops trying to make the economy look good into the elections.

In fact I've planned my holdings for the down leg as follows: 33% foreign currencies (FXY,FXF (carry trade unwind)); 15 - 20% Gold & silver bullion via ETFs, maybe a junior or two; 15 - 20% Energy (Canadian royalty trusts and RIG, VLO, etc); and the remainder ultra short ETFs and Puts.

http://tinyurl.com/2fxbnw

bg-> partial sales on SNDK, and closing (buying to close) 1/2 of the feb 27.50 puts sold yesterday->just money mgmt...

Quasi - selling puts, while buying cheaper calls

Yes, I do this simultaneously. Such that: I sold puts, stock was put to me, and keeps falling. Then, GAINS on the cheap call mitigate losses on the falling stock price.

I can estimate your worse case, cap the risk I am willing to take, and figure risk to reward.

Obama's nightmare - HillBilly !

For those who haven't seen their blended pic, it's worth a peek! - Just don't look at it TOO long....

http://tinyurl.com/2qqn5y

Today, it seems the spot market closed and there is no trade on the NY access market, so the spot price is $907.- The near futures price is 912.-

That means the gold basis closed wider than seen in quite some time, though its only ~$5.-

We are very near the interim top, so I expect the gold basis to widen little by little and the price advance remain weak or show some turmoil up until the end of March.

Really depends how the Eurozone looks at inflation, and whether they cut rates against the decline in short term treasuries.

Aurator - re: fib turn date, is that Mchugh? That could be a bottom or top, won't know until a few weeks out, correct?

Hi Bill,

Agree with your statement that this week was one that sets certain traders apart. Looking forward to getting your book in Feb.

I was a bit ticked off that my holdings in CC and KRY were taken out at the open because of my stops on Tuesday (which I never usually use). Basically the next day would have brought me a few more $$$ out of the hole. I need to put my "10:30am is the start of real trading rule" on my wall, and get some after-hours access through IB or OptionsExpress.

I realize that the whole thing is just a shell game anyway... and I'm sure many people who don't necessarily follow the markets are going to feel the same way when they get their monthly statements. (if they even get monthly statements) Since Finance is the chief export of the US, the game will continue to be played...

If Goldman is 90% short in gold, I'm sure they have 91% long somewhere else to offset... unless they're following the Societe Generale model of portfolio management.

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on the top 10 holdings of the TSX 60...

Still don't see any X's going on there... though I can see that my call on CNR a couple of days ago would have been a good one. Seems to be the strongest performer. I'm staying out of this market though...

SU
http://tinyurl.com/33cxmb
MFC
http://tinyurl.com/3a8w5p
RY
http://tinyurl.com/2l95ht
RIMM
http://tinyurl.com/2o7o5l
ECA
http://tinyurl.com/34uwqk
TD
http://tinyurl.com/388djw
BNS
http://tinyurl.com/33cupa
POT
http://tinyurl.com/3czll8
CNR
http://tinyurl.com/2kc2zt
ABX
http://tinyurl.com/3dm48y

BTW, agree that poodles are very smart dogs... my friend's poodle can count to 10. My poodle managed to setup his own facebook page. :)

Craig, sounds like your dog was an incredible one too. My sympathies to you.

2nd_ave...SNDK Sorry you had to hold this one more than 5 minutes :^)

Good call, I am long and strong through earnings...No Fear...

Wish it would pull back a little..Wanted to increase my position, but I will not chase...

HNU.to up 5.4% +2% for the CAD vs USD gain today, UNG up 2.4%.

Spoke too soon. NY access market picked up the slack.

Basketguy,
So you and 2nd are betting on SNDK having good earnings?

What do you think about softie tonight?

Rob.

g034: Fib date - yes McHugh does an excellent calculation on that. If the wave count is right, it can't be a bottom. You can hear McHugh in the TA section of Puplava's audios this week, here:

http://tinyurl.com/2c5ja6

Go to "first hour", right click the MP3 hot link and save the audio file to hard disk.

PS: Platinum at $1606/Toz, Gold $912.

2nd...

If you are still holding FXI, will you hold over night or sell today?

FranSix, does that mean your interpretation vis a vis approaching interim top changes, then? Also, how does one make a prediction, when Fed intervention can blow the usefulness of analysis out of the water?

I'm looking at the dow charts, and 12400 seems to be a line of resistance. That line was a support line on the way down. In the past 5 trading days we've bounced off of the line either up or down 5 times. The dow seems to also bouncing between the EMA(50) on the 5 minute chart, and the 12400 level.

Now, what is coming up either tonight, or tomorrow that will either break the dow out to the upside or downside?

FingerLakes..

FWIW..I think MSFT will have good results...I do not follow the stock, but I like the fact that GS gave it a big thumbs up...

Since I do not watch MSFT I can't tell what has been happening with the stock...Before earnings I like to watch the action and it looks good today...

The stock has had a nice run from last year, I would be selling if any good news comes out Just wish I would have bought some SUB 30.00 last year

isaiah- FXI->inclined to hold (watch position size, right?)

2nd

I went flat with FXI @150.13

I'm thinking about buying calls on it before the close. With the market in a good mood for today, they could rally hard on good news.

Rob.

Fingerlakes

Look at Calls for 35 strike 128,000 traded today...Strike that 135000 Cahnged in just minutes

DO YOU THINK SOME INFO WAS PRE-RELEASED???

Maybe. It may be a good ship to ride on for awhile.

Rob.

Finger

Can't go wrong with a company with SOO MUCH $$$$$$$$$$$$$

NOW ALMOST 150,000 on the calls 35.00 Strike

Amazing to watch...

BG: MSFT chart looks sweet...it pops above 33.20 ish ...wheeee...its gonna fly...look at the volume and the battle right now at that price level

BG: MSFT can pop this market..beautiful 20-30 min chart and the battle at 33.20 !!! wheee

i noticed the $vle value line index is showing more strength than the large caps. Since that is equal weighted doesn't it mean that overall market is doing better (better than what, I don't know, but...)?
I'm definitely of the wuss variety. Watching yesterdays market made me nauseous and I had to leave the computer. But i'm back at it today, with a good deal more respect for bear markets....

Well I didn't jump fast enough and missed buying the calls. I had my order in but it was at the bid and not the ask so it didn't fill. So now they better not shoot to 40 or I'll be pissed.

Rob.

EEMTRADER...

Now I know who was buying all those MSFT calls...:^)

Thought you were being sneaky...I am on to you...

Next Pi turn date is March 27, 2008 (if I remember correctly). These turn dates usually coincide with lows in gold, among other things. Something always seems to change on a turn date. The last Pi turn date was February 27, 2007, when subprime hit the papers and the stock market had a mini-crash out of nowhere.

Ha Ha....Good Laugh Bill

Inspector Clouseau...Gotta Good Laugh..

BG..me praying for strong business side guidance, VISTA is a bomb....hope they are not touting Zune..dont even remember seeing one...:)

MSFT >35 in the AM. reedemed myself for AAPL...

EEMTRADER...

You and Finger Lakes are buying the drinks tonight...

I want a lobster tail with my Opus 1

moab

Stupid question I guess...

What is a "Pi turn date " ?

I've had the best 2 days in quite a while.
Been trading around my SKF position which I'm slowly building when we run. Missed 102 today though, darn! Have paid for it several times over though with relatively large positions (for me) in UYG which I was in and out of today with great results.

Can't seem to time FXI these days but the financials are in focus so lots of chances there.
I'm waiting for my chance to short China again.

Good luck MSFT players.

BG : ok,,,big island sweet kona lobster....bring your own grass skirts...or club Roxa...me sleep well tonight...

Basketguy,

Thanks again for the TOCOM link. I have calculated the overall Put / Call ratio and it is around 1,16, which should be higher than usual, I guess.

The short squeeze theory makes some sense, but I wonder if it is a good idea to go long against GS???

All,

The several comments re gold here during the day are worth being summarized so that we can all get a perspective of our own positioning as a community.

Gold recap on the community's opinion:

- Aurator is gold bullish targetting 1050 short term, much more to come later on;

- Basketguy is gold bullish using hard data to hint a possible short squeeze coming, and expecing a remaining uptrend untill the broad market starts to seel off again

- Fatty is moderately gold bullish suggesting that the overall environment is at this time more relevant than the technical need to consolidate, and may explain a continued move higher

- Rob is also moderately bullish and has pointed out that a 50 bp cut is cooked into Libor and is suggesting that the stimulous package may impact the USD negatively.

- Meanwhile, I note that Fed fund futures show a 60% implied probability of that 50 bp cut.

- FranSix has suggested that the moneyflow into silver is a signal of a continued speculative rally in metals, whch may include goal in it at this time, but is calling for an interim top at 930 due to seasonality coming in by March.

- G034 neutrally noted that gold is testing a possible double top.

- Tbar is bullish calling for an inverted head and shoulders to be tested at 898.

- Fransix is calling for an interim top soon.

Wrap:

The majority of members in this community is at least moderately gold bullish, and that includes me.

I do however fear consensus....

Bill,

Wold you like to shed some light here?

Cheers!

The Baltic Dry Index continued downward today almost another 5% to 5948 from over 11,000 two or three months ago. With most new tonnage not coming on line for at least a couple of years. This seems to indicate a continuing slow down in demand for bulk carriers, which in turn may be a sign of a continuing downturn.

PHI turn date (I believe), 1.6 the amount of time of the last measured move.

Gold - government intervention = helicopter drop + gov cap ex. This is bullish on gold.

If stock market rallies and margin calls don't start again, I am looking for a rally in gold.

How many traders want the chance to buy at $850 level? Too many I am guessing.

Long gold and some shares.

Maromatics...

Always hardest to hold on for that last push...When most of the money is made..

NEVER in history that I can remember have the commercial shorts been wrong, BUT I feel this is a different time with a lot of support for the yellow brick..

We are going against the grain, but is that not what we do here...???

GONNA go find me that copy of THE WIZARD OF OZ...

I need to see that yellow brick road...

LOL!!!!!

Guys, its great to trade together with you.

Thanks for the input.

Cheers,

Oh and to add...

Did not Dorothy expose that joker behind the curtain...

Well we are here to expose the HB&B trying to manipulate Gold and get their lunch handed to them...

How Ironic with all the dog talk today. I am off to go see a Clifford the Dog exhibit with my son..If I am going to own a dog it would be Clifford. That way my wife would have a hard time living in that house...:^)

Can't wait till tomorrow...BYE ALL

Bill,

You will be able to add SNDK..To that list after Monday...

Thanks I caught the nice run in BC and am sitting on a nice lot of puts I wrote in SNDK...

Noted: Brazilian Ag plays PDA (Cara 100)and SDA both crossed above 30 on the daily RSI7 and stayed above 30 at the close.

Disclosure: long PDA position from Tuesday
Si02, do you still have SDA?
******************************
Last October before MSFT earnings bought a straddle (NOV expire) that paid off with a nice profit for the calls that offset the smaller loss on the puts.

Going into this evening's earnings release, only bought the FEB 35 MSFT calls (no straddle). (Haven't seen all the numbers yet, but wasn't xBox doing gangbusters at Christmas?)
Lucky, but I'll gladly join EEMtrader at the 19th hole.

EEM- nice call on MSFT->collateral moves in QLD, SNDK, even FXI after hours...

Pi cycle is pi * 1000 = 3141 days, and is divided in smaller cycles of 1/8 days = 393 days. Martin Armstrong claims it coincides with the business cycle going back several hundred years. March 25/6 is the next date.

I don't know why it works but it seems to. I suspect there is a relationship between pi and the fibonacci ratio that traders like to use, but I haven't looked into it yet.

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

A month or so back, Korvus' RSI app virtually called the top on AAPL at $188. I think it went up a few bucks shortly after, but it definetly hit the nail on the head as far as risk reward/management is concerned. I should have listened and bought a put!

I did have success this week with PDN.to, collecting a large amount just over $4 earlier this week. Korvus' RSI app called a buy on this one earlier this week - I found that out after I'd already bought but it sure was reassuring.

Thanks again Korvus for building the app - I click a few google ads now and again as all who use it should!

did the recession happen yet? msft says no weakness anywhere. this recession is starting to look a lot like y2k,man made global warming,and the bird flu.

Bill,

Thank you.

Cheers,

Bill

Before I forget, kudos to you!

Many thanks for the great work this week, especially your unique Tuesday insights and thoughts on the intervention that hit the global equity market sell-off in the morning.

You really laid it out and it was educational for all. That was Classic Cara during a challenging time. It would make a great chapter in your second book. Thank you!

Cheers to everyone who got microsoft calls. I didn't get any but did pick up softie for 33.25 in the afterhours, so I'll be moderately happy tomorrow :)

Have a great night everyone.

Rob.

Still holding SDA Seamus, but only a small position. Me not convinced this market not crashing sometime, financial problems have not gone away, but not fighting the ticker.

Bill, the server move will be great, congratulations. I have seen the crashes first hand and knows its due to traffic, which we greatly alleviate with Skype. There are about 65 people using it.

On the sad side, given the huge volume on MSFT C35s ahead of the close, it is obvious that someone knew about the earnings. And with all the Billions that are been used and created out of thin air to protect HBB, to be honest, I am starting to feel uneasy to be in this market with so many crooks controlling it, and seeing what they do to mom & pop's money. It is not just a casino to gamble, as my wife puts it, it is more to the likes of criminal activity. This is not investing anymore.

Disclosure: I am neither long nor short on QQQs.

g034 FWIW, posted a few thoughts on municipals last night in response to your comments from others. Hope you are feeling better and will be healthy by tomorrow.

moab

Thanks for the Pi cycle explanation.

re goldman shorts
As I understand it they are at 2 year lows.I think this data was compiled by gata?

http://goldtent.com/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/adrian2.gif

Re gs shorts

As I understand it they are a two yr lows in their gold short positions. Data was compiled by gata I believe?

Of course they recoed shorting gold recently lol

http://goldtent.com/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/adrian2.gif

Etrade up 10% afterhours because they say they'll be profitable this year, even though they still hold an 11 billion dollar home equity portfolio.

They only estimate 1-2 Billion of losses on that portfolio over the next three years.

That seems very optimistic to me. It's looking like the financials will take another ride down after this enthusiasm wears off. If the deal to save the bond insurers doesn't happen, that will be when to buy SKF.

Rob.

"did the recession happen yet?"
jaketex, you seem dubious. we are on the cusp if not already there. so many indicators have been pointing at that outcome it's not funny and we may already be in a recession if you throw out the government's bogus GDP deflator. Hope you aren't thinking it's not coming or even here. now how that will be managed is a different story.