US Gold-Mexico Regional Exploration Update: Early Results-0.033 Opt Gold, 1.787 Opt Silver Over 118.1 Ft., Including 0.224 Opt Gold, 14.69 Opt Silver Over 9.8 Ft.

Tuesday January 22, 7:17 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080122/0351697.html

By Mr Henry To
William Poole: Understanding Inflation

A must-read for those who want to study the 1970s inflationary spiral. This speech discusses the lessons learned from the 1970s inflationary spiral as well as the causes - and argues why a "policy regime" is necessary for a sound monetary policy (i.e. one in which we can achieve price stability) going forward.

http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2007/04_02_07.html

"When policy departs from usual practice, it is incumbent that policymakers communicate the change—its nature and rationale—carefully to the public. Monetary policy is more powerful, and better able to achieve its goals, if the forward-looking behavior of consumers and businesses is consistent with the forward-looking behavior suggested by the policy rule or regime. For several years, I have referred to this as “synching” the markets and monetary policy. The fundamental mechanism for making synching work is communicating the policy regime or rule—but rule-like behavior must be adopted by policymakers in the first place before it can be communicated to the public.

During the latter 1970s, the FOMC’s minutes, transcripts and public statements suggest frustration with an economy in which inflation increased with ease but decreased reluctantly; the Committee’s response was the monetary policy reform of October 1979. Two years ago, we held a special conference at the St. Louis Fed, on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of reform, to reflect on that monetary policy change. The papers from the conference are available in a special issue of our Review. In the conference opening remarks, Chairman Alan Greenspan noted that by 1979 the inflation situation had deteriorated to such an extent that “if the Fed had not opted to initiate a sharp interest rate increase in this country, the market would have done it for us.” He emphasizes that the 1970s inflation experience reinforces the role of price stability as a prerequisite for the efficient allocation of resources in the economy and for fulfilling the Fed’s goal of promoting maximum sustainable economic growth.

Allan Meltzer, in his paper for the conference, considered a wide variety of explanations, including political business cycles, dynamic inconsistency in policymaking, and the use of incorrect economic theories and data. He concludes that the policy failure was so large that no single theory can account for it—multiple, mutually reinforcing failures are required. Among these was the failure of FOMC members to distinguish between the corrosive effects of more rapid inflation as a cause of slower economic activity, because inflation increased uncertainty, and their fear that seeking to reduce inflation would, itself, further slow economic activity. Today, we appreciate that slowing inflation in the absence of a clearly defined and well-articulated policy regime will be costly—the concerns of these Committee members were well-founded. We also understand, however, that a clear policy regime focused on price stability can sharply reduce, if not eliminate, the likelihood of finding ourselves in such a situation."

A link to Alan Meltzer's paper entitled "Origins of the Great Inflation":

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/05/03/part2/Meltzer.pdf

Bill, I'm seeing the DOW emini accelerate down from -148 to -202 in minutes...

Onlineaces,,,

Could it have been the MBA purcahse news..

439.9 was the number

Good morning Apocalypse survivors. :^)

The ANALysts are working overtime this morning, (probably trying to save their jobs), and there is a lot to sift thru. Hope I didn't miss anything.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

EXC - to Buy @ Citigroup
PTR - to Outperform @ Bear Stearns

Price Target Lowered:

ERTS - $62 to $56 @ UBS

-------------------------------------------------

Other Stocks of Interest:

Upgrades:

AAUK - to Buy @ Citigroup
FCX - to Buy @ Friedman Billings

------------------------------------------------

New research report on Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY):

http://tinyurl.com/33yrrm

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

Correction:

FCX upgrade to Buy should read to OUTPERFORM.

Sorry.

Dollar Falls Below Y105

Thanks for the commentary, Bill. Boy, those GATA ads should get some tongues wagging. i see a golden highway stretching out.... Very perplexing environment for this novice investor. Hope you'll offer some guesstimates on market direction (pump up your score... rrrright.) With the differential between East and West, makes me wonder if Mr. Market has gone from manic/depressive to schizophrenic. Is this a sorting process of who is going to make it in a new type of economy? still holding LT to energy and gold, right or wrong.

I think this is the gata ad,its a big pdf file to upload.

http://www.gata.org/files/GATA-AD-01-14-2008.pdf

Getting killed on my EEM trade in pre-market. Down almost 5% overnight. It seems that at least once per quarter I make a trade that goes disastrously wrong.

The key now is to not try to make up for that by taking on more risk and compounding the mistake.

I have VIX calls as a hedge, which should help, but I doubt they will compensate for the loss I'll be taking in EEM.

Bill,

Re GATA: very, very important that they succeed.

How could our community help them?

All,

As I came back from lunch, my Bloomberg terminal was showing DAX Futures @ -5,7%.

There seems to be no floor in Germany.

How's the mood?

- Margin calls go on flying out to Clients.
- Traders are really nervous
- Several clients already wiped out.

Nice.

Enjoy.

Cheers!

Denny,

I have found something that works pretty well for me...

If I feel the market is going to rally I SHORT IT.

If I feel the market is going to Fall or continue to fall I BUY IT.

Kinda wierd, but I have found to trade against my emotions has made me a lot more money.

Last night I said to myself I would be comfortable going home long the market. After a nice rally off the lows. SO I should have shorted and would have picked up 200 pts in the DOW.

Try it...Paper trade against your gut reaction and tell me what happens...You may be surprised

I couldn’t resist the temptation to review that quote in full - “best of times” and it seems very appropriate. Now back to work!

IT WAS the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way- in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
Charles Dickens, Tale of Two Cities
http://tinyurl.com/yssrfg

number2son: Hang in there...recovering a bit here though still below yesterdays lows. Choking myself on some rotten AAPLs and EEM...

This could be one heck of a trending day...so we can recover some....which direction...no idea..but keep an eye out for it..

number2son

Same with me on FXI. After hours trading last night it did very well, Asian markets rallied up over night. But in pre market trading this morning,FXI dropped. Will hold firm at least for the first 30 mins of today's open.

basketguy, that's funny you said that because that's exactly how I've had to survive in the gold and energy markets these past few years. Problem is...other than gold....I have no clue about the broad market. I don't know enough to even have a wrong reaction at this point. Have you ever tried to make sense of what a schizophrenic person is saying?

Nice ad.

Thanks for the link, Tbar.

I'm out on FXI, QID after the morning plunge.

The worst market crisis in 60 years

By George Soros
The Financial Times
January 22 2008

The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing
market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the
end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years.

However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of
an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve
currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The
current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more
than 60 years.

Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit and always involve a bias
or misconception. This is usually a failure to recognise a reflexive,
circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the
collateral. Ease of credit generates demand that pushes up the value of
property, which in turn increases the amount of credit available. A bubble
starts when people buy houses in the expectation that they can refinance
their mortgages at a profit. The recent US housing boom is a case in point.
The 60-year super-boom is a more complicated case.

Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities
intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the
economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral
hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so
successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald
Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism.
Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common
interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their
self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the
intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from
breaking down, not the markets themselves. Nevertheless, market
fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial
markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current
account deficit.

Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world
and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached
6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets
encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated
instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the
process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk.
Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have
practically disappeared.

The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated
that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying
on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the
rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of
synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility.

Everything that could go wrong did. What started with subprime mortgages
spread to all collateralised debt obligations, endangered municipal and
mortgage insurance and reinsurance companies and threatened to unravel the
multi-trillion-dollar credit default swap market. Investment banks'
commitments to leveraged buyouts became liabilities. Market-neutral hedge
funds turned out not to be market-neutral and had to be unwound. The
asset-backed commercial paper market came to a standstill and the special
investment vehicles set up by banks to get mortgages off their balance
sheets could no longer get outside financing. The final blow came when
interbank lending, which is at the heart of the financial system, was
disrupted because banks had to husband their resources and could not trust
their counterparties. The central banks had to inject an unprecedented
amount of money and extend credit on an unprecedented range of securities to
a broader range of institutions than ever before. That made the crisis more
severe than any since the second world war.

Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because
some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and
unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the
economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to
accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping
that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession,
because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to
realise that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food
and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster,
the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered
beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and
long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is
impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to
stimulate the economy comes to an end.

Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable,
China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong
countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a
global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a
relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the
developing world.

The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US
protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into
recession or worse.

The writer is chairman of Soros Fund Management

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

craig- GFI pre-mkt 14.85...

Denny,,,

I don't think It is Schizo...Broad markets are hard to trade IMO because of the manipulation.
ETF's make it even harder to know what's going on

If you are looking for an index to follow I like the RUT. IMO tends to be more reliable as to how the economy is doing.

Then you can apply Bill's RSI and MACD indicators as to when to go long and when to sell

Yurp down:

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

So Sallie Mae reports a .36 cent loss instead of a .55 cent gain and the XLF ask goes up..... ?

2nd,
Looks as if it may come to us (GFI).

Are you still holding UYG?

Cara 100 Addition:

JNJ gets the upgrade to Buy @ Stanford Research.

Wow, thanks for the link, FranSix. Madrid is the only exchange up: 1% in a sea of red. Wonder what went on over there today...

Bill and everyone , good morning! Great thoughts, without free markets, there can be no political or personal freedom!

QLD-buying at the open...

Craig,

If they want to buy the financials, let them. It just means we get a better entry into SKF. ;-)

UYG- i have about 1/4 of my position left->planning to trade around that position for the next few days, as i suspect the financials could rocket at any time...

GFI- took the 14.85 pre-market..

QLD- two positions with an average basis of 68 and change...

Zenob- here's hoping you get an great entry into SKF ;)

Sold some 25.00 April puts in SNDK...For 2.60

Let'm put it to me....

What a day.
I just ran a ranking of the homebuilders (5-day % change) and 1-month % change and included a few other thoughts on which stocks held best besides the retail and financial's. Check it out
http://www.WallastonInvestments.com
Rob

Looks like I am totally out of sync with the market. Home builders are going up on a day when the rest of the market lies in ruins. Sorry, but lower mortgage rates are not going to help the likes of RYL or CTX or any other builder.

RYL reports today after the close. CTX next week.

But the charts say the market doesn't care they are will report awful earnings. And given my recent track record, trying to front run this market is a huge risk.

No more trades for me this month.

i know the downside targets we have in mind (10 and 2) and have no disagreement with either one, but i'm having a hard time detecting any anxiety with any of the companies i picked up/add to the either friday or tuesday (TM/SNDK/INTC/AAPL last night/even the Japan Fund), even with the caveat that we trade prices, not companies->think they may be OK for a couple of weeks...(in addition, have to say i like the companies, the mgmt, the products, the prospects for all of them)...fwiw

-'addED to friday'

Still holding HGD... stay on target...

Yahoo's below $20... might be worth a look.

n2s- that just means you're not schizophrenic ;)

2nd_ave...

Just riding your coat tails :^)

Comfortable knowing your are also holding SNDK...

Please don't sell it in the next 5 seconds...

During the last three market days, we've gotten a reassurance speech from Uncle Ben, an economic stimulus proposal from Bush, featuring free money for taxpayers, and last but not least, a 3/4% cut from the Fed.

Look at the result.

Stick a fork in this market......it's done.

All IMHO.

Weather last week has been the coldest this season so far. Natural gas inventories will be released tomorrow.
UNG and HNU.to reflect next month (February) prices. This is likely the last chance to play ng going up, then it's natural gas going down till the Fall. JMO, do your DD please. And best of all, is mostly independent of stock market direction.

anyone else sense we may get the 'rally' we were cheated out of yesterday?

basketguy,

I am slowly writing puts as well. Wrote SMH today, XLF & HBC a few days ago. I am writing puts further out (5+ months) because I don't expect current market issues to get resolved fast. Just wondering what your rationale for writing April (i.e. shorter) puts is.

Bull Hunter, what's going down, besides the stock, with FRP? Was it that dividend news you mentioned Fri? Major haircut yesterday.

n2s- the last time this happened (think it might have been HL and/or PD), you came back a few days later to massive rallies in both...so pretty confident that you will be very happy with EEM in a few days...

Bull Hunter: SEctor rotation...into financials / and home builders out of Tech...thats the new favored sectors..look at the screen...XLF is on viagra.....

they need to save the banks....still 20% of S&P..a gap down...and if it doesnt drop below yesterday's lows..is more a bullish sign than a bearish sign..

ITs still early...but sector/country rotation after a shakeout is what I am paying attention to ...and shake off what worked last year...

Denny,

I believe it's the dividend cut, plus a general tanking of the telecom sector in combination.

Regards

Good luck, EEMTRADER.

I'm out of the market save for QID, SKF and long term holdings ALTI and MNTA.

Regards

watch yesterdays highs for potential reversal...

picked up some more FXI on the last dip 141.76

This train to Shanghai is running late. FXI has a lot of ground to make up.

great looking ihs in gold about to break out, 938ish for a po.

SEED on the move again off its low of 6.55, now in the 7.80s. Disclosure: Long

BH- do not disagree with you at all->let it run a couple of weeks..they might even try pumping it a little more at next weeks FOMC..(and was it stockshocker that said no one wants the downturn in the headlines going into Super Sunday)...then it go down..

GFI- out at 15.55..how hard was that?

BH- do not disagree with you at all->let it run a couple of weeks..they might even try pumping it a little more at next weeks FOMC..(and was it stockshocker that said no one wants the downturn in the headlines going into Super Sunday)...then it go down..

GFI- out at 15.55..how hard was that?

Craig

You still holding FXI?

2nd you sold last night...right?

jragusa..Re Options..

I have been using options with Bills method writing only the options that I want to own If they get put to me.

Re: SNDK. There are a couple of reasons I chose this stock. I saw some unusual activity in the options on SNDK back in early January. Was also mentioned by NAJARIAN owner of option monster.com. At that point it went on my radar screen. I have been watching since then looking for an entry. I wanted to buy it beofre earnings on Jan 28th.

Then INTC earnings release and INTC management had the following to say:

Intel's management said its chips were selling like hotcakes, and blamed the shortfall on flash memory, where unit volumes are in a perpetual climb to the stars, but average selling prices are in an equally permanent free fall.

That's certainly bad news for memory specialists SanDisk (Nasdaq: SNDK), Micron (NYSE: MU), or Spansion (Nasdaq: SPSN), but apparently it was bad enough to hurt even mighty Intel as it dips a toe in the memory waters.

Pricing pressures yes, but DEMAND CLIMBING TO THE STARS...I like that

THIRD and Final straw..The mention of SNDK in Bills commentary from yesterday...Sealed the deal as they say...Also a CARA 100...

I look at each stock on an individual basis and these were the reasons I sold some puts on SNDK

Hope it helps..

isaiah- LOL->ever ride the bullet trains in japan? not worried about this late train...

I had the chance to listen in on the Ivy Asset Strategy (WASAX) conference call last night. If you have never checked this fund out you should, it's remarkable and unique. I am not aware of a fund other than this one that has such a wide mandate in the assets it can buy or the asset allocation of those assets.

Anyway, to piggyback on the Soros article. The lead manager was ion Kansas City while his team was on the call from Shanghai. His basic point is this.

There are two areas of connectivity, if you will, to the US market. First is Financial - meaning that global stock markets are still connected to some extent to our stock markets.

Second is Financial - meaning the economies. He was adamant that a sea change is occurring right now and that within the next six months China and India will prove to decouple. He made a point that was shocking and frankly not sure if I heard it right but said that Exports from China only make up 10% of the Economy and India even less.

He mentioned that India is the most self-contained emerging country out there.

The fund is hedged 45% US, 40% German DAX and long China, India along with 10% physical Gold, Alternative Energy and Global Infrastructure stocks.

Anyway, I found their call very interesting.

So with that in mind...Is now the time to start to overweight China and India and stake up long term positions?

Different play, fixed income closed fund FAX.

Asian currency play, mostly Australian dollars which although not the main unwind of the carry trade (NZ, Iceland, etc.) moved down as the yen strengthened.

Picked up some this a.m. on sale @ 5.74 for the IRA. NAV this weekend was -11.6 at a price of 5.95 per Barron's so today's purchase is double digit below NAV. Monthly dividend yield @ 6.33%.

Long term (not day trade) thought is Aussie $ will do better vs. USD this year along with other currencies in the fund. FWIW. Please doyodd.

UYG- out of (this morning's) position at 34.62...

Adding SKF at 118

Scratch that, adding SKF at 117.84. Gotta love limit orders lol

Adding SRS at 119

CC spiked today. Too bad I got stopped out yesterday... at the open.

Could have been worse I guess... could have sold HGD too... buncha crooks...

If SKF get's below 115 again I'm going to back the truck up.

The trade I'm considering is waiting until about 30-60 minutes before the close of the markets and buying some DIA(dow index fund) puts. With the plan to most likely sell them first thing tomorrow morning as the market opens lower.

"Absolutely shocking to me is the divergence between this morning’s US equity futures (showing a double digit Dow decline at the open) and the stunning rally overnight in some of the Asia-Pacific markets, particularly Hong Kong."

Bill, would you be willing to expand on the possible causes and implications of this?

Is it time to overweight China?

geckojb: the ave per capita income among China's city dwellers...is US $4000 a year...there are 40 cities over a million people..we have 10...take a trip there...in the cities they are earning , saving and spending..in the villages they are surviving and want to thrive.

Lot of room to grow there...FOOD, Education, travel...worthwhile investment themse for the long term.

Just be careful with the banks, food is not the only thing that is cooked...

As to when to invest for the long term..sorry ..cant help you there.

Basketguy,

Re SNDK

I think you made a good call re put writing.

Memory makers' extreme lows in December and January were likely a big shakeout at attractive price levels.

There is a site, www.dramexchange.com, that tracks the composite DRAM/Flash prices, via which the fair inventory value of these guys (Ex-Cara 100 MU, among others) may be assessed.

In general, memory makers and this memory-price index, DXI, are highlu correlated *with the exception* of DXI bottoming, at cash-costs value, in 26 November 2007 and then double-bottoming at 15 November 2007.

Those days where DXI bottomed have been the starts in furious drops in many memory makers, SNDK, MU and QI most notably. Stocks and physical disconnected then and are only now correlating again, with the stocks much lower, some of them 50% off.

In December 18, just as inventory prices had double-bottomed, HB&B (LEH or GS, can't recall) came out with announcements that these stocks (MU) are 'dead money' for 2-3 quarters etc. For a month following that announcement, memory stocks were pummeled while the physical was leveling off...and recovering slightly as of today.

I think they are accumulating with a distribution time horizon to of 1 to 2 years. Maybe less, if 'skyrocketing demand' drives prices up in 1H of 2008 instead of the traditional 2H. If so, we could see some doubling or tripling of prices among this group.

Add to that Bill's view that when the new Bull arrives, the Semis are to be at the forefront, and that's all I need to consider a trade.

Basketguy,

Re SNDK

I think you made a good call re put writing.

Memory makers' extreme lows in December and January were likely a big shakeout at attractive price levels.

There is a site, www.dramexchange.com, that tracks the composite DRAM/Flash prices, via which the fair inventory value of these guys (Ex-Cara 100 MU, among others) may be assessed.

In general, memory makers and this memory-price index, DXI, are highlu correlated *with the exception* of DXI bottoming, at cash-costs value, in 26 November 2007 and then double-bottoming at 15 November 2007.

Those days where DXI bottomed have been the starts in furious drops in many memory makers, SNDK, MU and QI most notably. Stocks and physical disconnected then and are only now correlating again, with the stocks much lower, some of them 50% off.

In December 18, just as inventory prices had double-bottomed, HB&B (LEH or GS, can't recall) came out with announcements that these stocks (MU) are 'dead money' for 2-3 quarters etc. For a month following that announcement, memory stocks were pummeled while the physical was leveling off...and recovering slightly as of today.

I think they are accumulating with a distribution time horizon to of 1 to 2 years. Maybe less, if 'skyrocketing demand' drives prices up in 1H of 2008 instead of the traditional 2H. If so, we could see some doubling or tripling of prices among this group.

Add to that Bill's view that when the new Bull arrives, the Semis are to be at the forefront, and that's all I need to consider a trade.

TRIN looks pretty bad on this rally attempt. Anyone else see that?

There is going to be a big move either way.

Basic question for the community about exit points:

I bought kss yesterday morning (reasons talked about yesterday). I also think that Kohl's is one of the retail chains that could do better in a slowing economy (low prices, nicer merchandise than a KMart or WalMart). I'd like to keep it as a shorter term trade rather than holding it for a few months. What are the signals I should be looking for as far as an exit point goes? I know to look at RSI and right now I am looking at the daily which is 63. So I wait until it gets above 70 then drops back below.

But what else can I look at? What other indicators can the community recommend I look at being a novice? Do most of you set a target price or some target condition (like the daily RSI condition described above)?
TIA

Quentusrex..

Be careful with that PUT strategy...Holding overnight can kill you if news comes out from overseas like an ECB rate cut

I feel the ECB will have to cut and it will happen VERY SOON. Within the next 48 hours I feel....

That will send our market and world markets on a HUGE SHORT SQUEEZE....IMO...

What I am looking at for a near term trading bottom -

Top in Yen (newbies can view the yen ETF - FXY) signifying that the yen carry trade unwinding may be done for the short term. This unwinding correlates with an equity selloff. May be in the next few days.

Top in bonds - (can view SHY and IEF). This flight to safety trade ending will signify traders willing to put money to risk in equities. May also be in the next few days.

Technical bottom signs - RSI, Stochastic crossovers rising, trendlines broken to upside.

$VIX falling off spike highs.

Financials rising.

All the above happening at the same time.

Some other stuff as well.

This is all short term stuff. In the long run, if this is the bear market that I think it is, we'll probably find that as the Monthly RSI's fall below 30, that will signal the end of the profitable "sell the rallies" trade at higher probability profits. That will also be the time to start outright buying stocks or writing puts (lower strikes) and buying calls on high quality stocks that you want to own in the long run. The funny thing is that I am guessing we will look back at this time and notice that when the monthly RSI 7 moves above 30 that the bear market ended and it will look in hindsight as pretty darn simple.

signed, the Simpleton

btw, feeling under the weather, so good luck to all if I don't return today.

"There is going to be a big move either way."

Posted by: moab [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 23, 2008 11:17 AM

While I was taking note of the mid-morning trading range in SDS between 68.40 and 69.20 and looking up the JL quote below (very apropos), I missed the 11:30 breakout above 69.20.

"In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be up or down. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get-nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the price breaks through the limit in either direction. A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him. Never argue with it or ask it for reasons or explanations. Stock-market post-mortems don't pay dividends."

-- Jesse Livermore

All we need now is disappointing earnings or guidance from GOOG next week, and we can fly to the Bahamas for a QID party.

Drinks are on me. :^)

I just wanted to comment that this market is acting more and more like a casino...

With everyone playing all the leveraged bull/bear funds or running into and out of the Emerging market ETF's

It doesn't help that that the program sellers have been having a field day.

Individual stocks making 10% moves up and down.
They all pile out of one and into another (out of AGU --> into CNR)

How can anyone seriously invest in this kind of environment?

It is more suited for day traders.

Still waiting for a confirmed bottom....

New here...

Added SSO, JAG, SEED, URRE, PAAS, RIO
Sold SKF, SRS.

New puts on the Euro. Looking for an ABC
reversal and an ECB rate cut.

Interesting blog entry by Dr. Brett Steenbarger this morning entitled "Do Individual Day Traders Make Money?"

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/01/do-individual-day-traders-make-money.html

An excerpt:

"Trading lore has it that the average trader loses money in the markets. Some estimates put the proportion at 80% or even higher. When we think of all the potential disadvantages of the individual day trader, it's not hard to believe those numbers. After all, the individual day trader as a whole:

* Does not participate in the long-term upward drift in stock prices exhibited by equities;
* Does not have a team of analysts providing researched trade ideas;
* Does not have a dedicated IT and programming staff to support and automate trading;
* Does not have a rich array of colleagues to share ideas and learn from;
* Does not have access to the best trading software and news services;
* Does not enjoy preferential commission rates available to exchange members."

We Caraistas are perhaps exceptional in that we do indeed have "a rich array of colleagues to share ideas and learn from".

Those of us who use IB also have "access to the best trading software", and enjoy "preferential commission rates", though certainly not so low as enjoyed by exchange members.

As to not having "a team of analysts providing researched trade ideas", whose analysis would we prefer over Bill's and the collected wisdom and experience of our colleagues here? The shills at (insert specific HB&B name here)?

I feel the ECB will have to cut and it will happen VERY SOON. Within the next 48 hours I feel....

That will send our market and world markets on a HUGE SHORT SQUEEZE....IMO...

Posted by: basketguy at January 23, 2008 11:29 AM

That makes alot of sense. An ECB rate cut is indeed the next logical chapter in the playbook. UK rates were held up by the BOE, and the FTSE is paying the price. I think it's written into the script that Hank & co emerge from Davos to take the credit for convincing the EU to lower rates, propelling a rally just in time for next week's State of the Union address.

Don't forget HB&B's long-term playbook :

"And when the game of Asset Transfer to the Connected Rich and Powerful (CRAP) is drawing to a conclusion, the Admin, Fed, and HB&B will pull the plug they will tell us they have to clean up the excessive liquidity in the system!). Then (just wait for it as equity prices fall), everybody will scream bloody murder that interest rates are too high, so they will then be pulled down by the Friends of CRAP, which will complete the circle. You see, the debts taken on by HPEC today is really, in the future, your debt and their asset."

"As and when rates/yields plunge (following a collapse of the equity market), the value of HPEC's present debt will soar, after which they will securitize it and sell it back (in the form of a debenture) to We The People in America, and (they hope) abroad. The possible fly in the ointment of course is if, in the interim, interest rates in the US rise, like they are in Europe."

Bill Cara July 4, 2007

As to "not participat[ing] in the long-term upward drift in stock prices exhibited by equities", a great portion of that "upward drift" is attributable to a downward drift in the value of our currency. Moreover, that upward drift is sporadically interrupted by precipitous plunges which induce a great many buy-and-hold investors to sell in panic at the bottom; those who hang on may have to wait many years to recover, if they ever do at all.

Case said: "Add to that Bill's view that when the new Bull arrives, the Semis are to be at the forefront, and that's all I need to consider a trade."

Case, basketguy, in my original post, I wanted to find out not why basketguy chose SNDK (although that explanation was very helpful) but why April puts as opposed to futher out. Personally, I would choose to sell puts that expire when I think the market will likely bottom. Consequently, I would be more comfortable selling puts 5+ months out. I would also sell OTM rather than ATM. I collect less premium, but my cost basis is lower.

basketguy...do you see that triangle forming on the DJI...we are at the bottom of that triangle...3-min chart...looks ominous....

Bull Hunter

QID kills again????

http://tinyurl.com/32obbx

Isaiah,

I wonder how many investors are buried beneath that headstone? :^)

Regards

Trichet just implied that he is not going to cut rates soon and the Euro markets tanked. If not, what happens?

Bull Hunter...

I believe they call it a...........

"Mass Grave"

EEMTRADER,

China also uses a lot coal. The Chinese government is planning to shut down most of the several hundred small coal companies due to safety and economic consideration. So there will be consolidation in the Coal sector. Any investment idea in the Chinese coal companies?

tia

jragusa,

Re premium, the best deal is at-the-money, assuming you pick the bottom. It's all about risk-reward profile you feel comfortable with.

If the stock's condition is indeed oversold during a high-volatility (therefore high premium) period, therefore bound for a reversal, then going ATM on the shorter time-frame can pay off better; Faster time decay, helped by (hopefully) quiesced volatility volatility some time later; Therefore, the potential to compound faster.

The downside of this is that you may be put the stock too early if there is more downside, but, in basketguy's words, he'd be ok with this.

Personally, I just sold a partial ATM batch (i.e.strike 25) Jan 09 puts, but I'm lucky here in that SNDK just collapsed. If it tanks again at earnings, I'll go for a second, equal ATM (or OTM if not applicable) batch at a lower strike... and so on, until my maximum cap% for this trade is exhausted.

jk84: YZC...nasty looking chart though...

If the ECB isn't going to cut rates, then what could save the market from dropping another 1000 points in/over the next couple weeks?

Let's figure out where the market has put it's hope. That way we'll know when they'll freak out.

Re: ECB

Trichet can't be seen as bending too easily to Hank.

From Bloomberg today:

"European bonds rallied on speculation the ECB will be forced to follow the Fed and cut interest rates. The yield on the two- year note fell as much as 24 basis points, the biggest decline since the day after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and was at 3.22 percent at 2:49 p.m. in London.

``Trichet's warning about inflation risks today does not mean that he won't cut interest rates in three months,'' said Marco Kramer, co-head of European economics at UniCredit MIB in Munich. ``It's only rhetoric to fight inflation expectations.''

BNP Paribas SA today said it now expects the ECB to lower its key rate to 3.75 percent in June rather than September. Barclays Capital said the central bank will reduce rates twice this year instead of keeping them unchanged."

We are less that 100 points off of the low point from Tuesday. If we break below that, who is the next superman to save the market?

"Let's figure out where the market has put it's hope."

Now that's a damn good question, Quentusrex.

The talk on FETV is always about more rate cuts but no matter how much the Fed gives them, they're never satisfied.

Uncle Ben only has so many rate cut chips left to play, unless he intends to pay banks to borrow from him. :^)

Regards

I will step in and short this market on the next bounce higher. Because this looks like it just broke through the low from yesterday...

In the Brett Steenbarger excerpt above, I should make it clear that he, himself, does not necessarily subscribe to the "trading lore" cited; rather, he presents the "lore", and then describes a recent scholarly study of actual results achieved by daytraders.

I was just thinking that the Fed did a good job with that rate cut. Atleast if they were trying to stop a market crash. They've added just enough confusion to the market that the bears who knew the market was going lower now don't know where that 'lower' is. Is it at 11700? or still below that?

TRIN is exploding up - much worse than yesterdays levels yet many stocks are rallying. Anyone think they can hold the line?

RE: GOLD - THE NEXT LEG UP

Today, we have John Embry interviewed by Victor Adair:

http://tinyurl.com/2y4gee

The €/$ cross trade Victor refers to is this one:

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/25o6lp

The ¥/$ chart is probably the next one to follow in this same currency context.

RETHINKING THE GOLD/SILVER RATIO

I am very perturbed at the lack of movement in my gold junior since August while we see the gold price improve weekly. I have had trouble discerning why, I assumed it was a negative market appreciation of its assets.

One thing that I assumed was that it would simply follow moves in the $C gold price, as it had for years. But there is a temporary hiatus from this tracking. The cause of this is the lack of credit for speculation in gold juniors. There is no lack of money for massively liquid ETFs or the Majors. In fact, K.TO has tracked the $C gold price exactly.

So I had to go back to the indicator of credit in the markets, which is the gold/silver ratio. Its there that we see the effect of the ongoing credit crunch. I did not realize that trade in the gold juniors could be so affected.

Its only by chance I came across my gold junior, and it took quite some time to figure out its chart followed not the $US bullion price, but the $C bullion price.

Now, we are looking at the $US bullion price and saying that it will repeat the performance of Q1-Q2 2006. In order to do that, conditions must be the same. I speculate that the sudden inversion of treasuries over medium term bonds provides and escape hatch for a moderate expansion of credit here.

So I refer to the Gold/Silver ratio, since its such a good indicator of activity in the credit markets and rethink some of the assumptions and redraw the charts.

It has long been held by expertise in the gold & precious metals sector that Gold will outperform Silver in a deflationary scenario. But I beg to differ, as Silver has clearly outperformed Gold, thus under similar credit condition, Silver must outperform once again.

In Jan. 2006, Silver began to outpeform Gold, so if we are to have a resumption of the upleg a sign would be a decline in the Gold/Silver ratio, not a sharp rise. (long awaited change.) For our purposes, it makes things simpler to invert the ratio to Silver/Gold as it compares with moves in my gold junior stock.

So at least we have an explanation and a way of determining when the move is on by watching the Silver/Gold chart. Any move of Silver over Gold at this juncture (should be by mid-February) says that we are repeating the run-up once again. Gold should be into its seasonal weakness by that time and trading sideways, but Silver should be into seasonal strength.

The Parabolic SAR is the earliest indicator of a runup:

Stockcharts.com

http://www.tinyurl.com/2y4gee

It also seems technical indicators have begun to turn after an indeterminate result in the ratio for months.

"These changes in economic conditions reinforce each other. The long period of relative economic and financial stability has reinforced expectations of future stability, reducing implied volatility and risk premia, increasing comfort with higher leverage, and encouraging flows of capital into riskier assets. The low level of real interest rates that has prevailed in much of the world through this expansion has contributed to relatively accommodative financial conditions. The high levels of reserve accumulation by governments with heavily managed exchange rate regimes put downward pressure on forward interest rates, potentially distorting asset prices. The increase in size of sovereign wealth funds, the shift in assets to hedge fund and private equity managers, and the possible reduction in home bias among private savers have increased the amount of mobile capital in search of higher returns. The resilience of the market in the face of the latest shocks has increased confidence in future financial resilience. In these conditions, market participants face more acutely the classic dilemma of deciding whether to follow the market, or to buy more insurance against the risk of a reversal at the expense of near term returns."

http://www.ny.frb.org/newsevents/speeches/2007/gei070515.html

“University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart and Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff agree. They say the current crisis appears on track to be at least as bad as the five most catastrophic financial crises to hit industrialized countries since World War II.

If those past experiences are any guide, the economy is in trouble, they argue in a recent paper. Indeed, "if the United States does not experience a significant and protracted growth slowdown, it should either be considered very lucky or even more 'special' than most optimistic theories suggest," they write.”

Quoted in the WSJ 1/21/08. See paper- http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Is_The_US_Subprime_Crisis_So_Different.pdf

I am watching the volatility index very closely. Its continuing to rise after a huge early morning spike yesterday followed by a pullback. Looking at the chart of the VIX I could not find a single time a spike in the VIX had a rising VIX from a lower level the next day. I have to guess we are going to attempt at taking out the high of the VIX yesterday 37.57 or set a new precedent I could not find elsewhere in the last 999 days of the VIX chart.

I covered my AAPL short this morning but followed by adding back another 1/4 of my typical QID position and now am 1/2 in on my QID trading position. If the VIX starts to fall im dropping the entire QID postion and holding off a couple days...remaining short GME, SYUT, CME, AAPL (leap puts), VMW, AMZN...

If the market pushes through yesterdays spike lower on the DOW look out below...I will put on the entire QID postion.

Does anyone here trade HXD.TO? I have a question

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p11200957214
http://www.hbpetfs.com/fundSummary.asp

This is an inverse ETF fund on the TSX

At today's open, when the TSX was approx 12500, HXD.TO was $25.50. Now, TSX is 12220, HXD is $25.35. $25.50 is HOD, but TSX isn't LOD

Doesn't seem to provide the correct exposure

So much negativity about the economy and homebuilders are up across the board. I'm lost!

Below DJIA 11640 intraday bigboyz?

Fred,

It looks to me like HB&B are trying to keep the chain from snapping and they are focusing their attention on the weakest links, namely the financials and homebuilders. Course I could be wrong, but I don't see any other valid reason for those two sectors to be holding up in this sell off.

I was noticing that Fred. And fertilzers are getting their heads handed to them.

It's always interesting to run the most actives/net gainers/losers on the exchanges.
The Icy veined are thinking they see a bottom in homebuilders. I've only got blood.

Financial shorts...SKF is coming back to us.
I want that 114 handle (or lower) again.

G034,

Simplicity works.

Allways a pleasure to read your posts.

Cheers!

I think lower interest rates, and the expectation that this will lead to more home sales, coupled with high short interest is rallying the home builders.

Craig - yea...if we take out that im just not sure what helps to support the DOW short term...

The VIX has been trending higher the entire day...I dont understand how this can trend higher all day after the spike yesterday...you would think peoples fears would ease after a huge spike and it would trend lower unless we have not made our spike...

Very exciting nonetheless...

bigboyz....use the vix next to a breadth chart...that will help explain what is happening today....

CapitalStreetGroup Re: TSX & HXD

You are probably better comparing XIU, the TSX60 ETF to HXD & HXU rather than the index, that you can't trade. This morning both the TSX and TSX60 indexes show opening up and then immediately dropping to basically the low, in the first three 3 minute bars. The XIU opened down and continued down for 3 bars before turning up. The HXD hit the high the 1st bar and then started down. There are minor differences sometimes when there hasn't been a trade in one of the ETFs for a period, and especially when the closing prices don't quite jive.

Bill - nice call on GOOG yesterday...FranSix thanks for the silver/gold info

jragusa...Just have a shorter time frame...Re Options..I am looking for a bounce within the next month...Or if the market continues to fall...Have it put to me...

EEMTRADER...I saw the breakdown in DJIA...I am building a position for a possible bounce. And if that does not happen...Have lots of good stocks put to me at great prices...

If they are put to me, I can start being aggressive by writing covered calls...

Bill - nice call on GOOG yesterday...FranSix thanks for the silver/gold info

i don't know, man...still think we rally...

basketguy..it bounced...off todays lows..wish I could test how firm that double bottom is...

I don't think I would look for these rate cuts to turn around the home builders. The rate cuts won't undo all the damage that is already out there. A lot of people are stuck in homes they can barely meet payments on that are now worth less then they owe. Not to mention the glut of foreclosed and otherwise available houses that are just sitting idle now. I don't think there will be any great boost to the homebuilders until this backlog of overpriced vacant homes gets cleared out. Right now this backlog is increasing not decreasing plus the value of the homes is decreasing at the same time. I imagine most home buyers right now who have the credit to get a home will simply sit back and wait for the home they want to come to them at the price they want. This isn't a good scenario for the "sell side" of the equation. Just my two cents for what it's worth. ;-)

Good point Zenob. BNN is commenting that another 50bp is already expected at the Fed's meeting next week. What if the cut is only 25bp (or 0)? Do traders trash the market, or do they think things aren't so dire then? Either way looks grim.

Thanks for RYL n2son!

Yeah Zenob, estimate is 50 biilion in ARM resets per month....more defaults, growing inventories of repos....hard to see the silver lining.

Zenob -

I agree with you. I was just explaining the current sentiment, however wrong it may turn out to be. However, cancellation rates are going down for some home builders which may portend modest improvement in their bottom line. The question in my mind is will lower interest rates boost the demand for houses? I don't think so, not when the consumer is pulling back, scared of the future and out of credit. There is a trade their if you are confident.

It takes forever to learn to reverse your emotions and buy the plunge. I am good at it for PM stocks that I am familiar with but not for anything else that I believe it heading lower. I shorted SKF nears the lows today and am riding the monster rally. Guess I am learning how to daytrade, although I would prefer swing trading over several weeks or months.

We may close positive today.

Is the buying program kicking in like yesterday?

honestly, if anyone [opened] any shorts in the past two hours, i would close and get out of the way...

selling INTC @ 19.20->rotating funds into QLD @ 67.44...

moab- agree with your last post

SNDK- writing feb 27.50 puts against my position...

Bill - nice call on GOOG yesterday...FranSix thanks for the silver/gold info

I've been slowly scaling into SKF all day but it looks like I might be getting a good enough price to back the truck up if this rally continues into the close. I was happy to see 115, but now I'm thinking I might get away with grabbing it at 110 or even 108.

2nd,
Nice Call.

sndk-> opened feb08 27.50 puts at 3.50...

TypeKey really does some weird stuff...I posted that comment and got a 500 internal server error. didn't try to repost, but it has now appeared 3 times!!

zenob - Fifth Third Bancorp agrees with you... see #3 on the list

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=15629

last comment under #1 is pretty funny too...

Hi Gang -

I've been enjoying the dialog for some time, and learning a lot.

I've been in and out of SKF a lot, and have noticed that SRS (Ultrashort Real Estate) usually runs about 10 points ahead of SKF. ATM they are three points apart which suggests that the Real Estate rally is stronger than financials.

If we revert back to recent norms, SRS may be the better play.

ANYONE watching cara 100

BC...Nice higher highs and lower lows over the last few days...

Something brewing?

it's getting kinda 'popular' to be a bear (obviously referring to the media, and not the early bears here)->it's the ones that jump on board when it nears an [intermediate] bottom that get trapped and taken out, so i would be careful pressing the short side...

When articles like this one start showing up on yahoo, at least a near term bottom must be around the corner, right?

How to Sell a Stock Short
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/080121/16673.html?.v=1

SHORT COVER SHORT COVER...

Since this rally is being lead up by financials and housing, when will the next large company report earnings and forcasts?

You'd think they would vary the time of the automatic buying so as not to arouse suspicion. lol

Panic buying! It is nice to trade with da boyz!

Thanks Fransix for your gold/silver post. I am going to ruminate on it when I have a clearer mind. I have taken for granted that this ratio shows either credit expansion (silver leading) or credit contraction (gold outperforming). That silver/gold ratio might be making a low.

You'd think they would vary the time of the automatic buying so as not to arouse suspicion. lol

Posted by: Zenob at January 23, 2008 3:10 PM

Why bother. The average Joe who went short this morning is stuck at work or in traffic by mid-afternoon. Easy pickings for HB&B.

The 500 server error seems to happen when two people post at once.

basket guy....a pullback here to form a handle of a cup...and tommorow ..rip and roar..or am I smoking dope and imagining things?

Anyone who trades GFI, and has level IIs: On my screen, thousands of buys are going by in 100 share lots, all at about the same price, but the Ask side never moves, and in fact, is much lower than the current sale price. What does this mean? Program buy? Liquidation? Either way, where are the shares coming from if the Ask side doesn't move?

Shaking the money tree now! Jesus, we are going from oversold to overbought on the 60 minute chart in 3 bars! These bear rallies really are extraordinary.

Seems odd that PMs are lagging and falling behind as the rally lifts. It seems the money flow is being sucked directly out of safe-haven treasuries into equities, bypassing PMs (for now).

EEMTRADER....

I stand on the long side..Which scares me because that uaually tells me to go short...

Turn and burn sounds good and we may get that pullback..

They are shaking the tree hard right now to get all those weak hands to fall...

200 pts down every morning seems to be doing the trick..

Re silver:gold, I use it as gold:silver because of the positive correlation to hui:gold
I sure miss the leverage,maybe these past few wash outs are the final tree shaking before a leveraged run?

http://tinyurl.com/2nns43

I am still looking for that rate cut from the ECB to come through by Friday....

I just don't understand the action on GFI - there are a lot of sellers lined up to sell lower, but the MM has jumped right over them. WTF meter is off the charts. Anyone? Anyone? Craig? Long GFI.

This is bang the shorts time and PM's have little short interest, I bet, since they are in a bull trend with fundamentals. PM's will probably get bought tomorrow on the open since the pressure has been let off the market (for now). No?

"The powers that be" may actually want the stock market to fall like it has. This has driven money into bonds, pushing yields lower and increasing refinancing activity. Maybe they feel that fixing the housing market is more important than an equity bear.

Sorry if someone has mentioned this before.

Naked And Ashamed? Rule Change Could Curb Shorting Practice

■ The SEC is considering changing a rule that exempts options
market makers from a bar on naked short selling. If that
comes, it could lift stocks of heavily shorted companies.

BY JOSEPH CHECKLER
DowJones Hedge Fund Trades

The controversial practice of selling stock in a company without owning it, known as “naked” short selling, could be curbed by a change in securities regulations now under discussion.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is still unofficially accepting comments on a proposed amendment to Regulation SHO, the rule that regulates short selling, which would remove the “options market maker” exemption from the rule. An SEC spokesman said a final decision on the amendment is expected in the first half of 2008. The exemption allows options market makers on U.S. options exchanges to sell stock they don’t own at the same time they short positions by selling put options, which confer the right to sell a stock at a predetermined price.

Read More.....

http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/node/150

writersblock

I just pulled up GFI level II and see what you mean. Comparing Level II to transactions just doesn't match. And why all the 100 share transactions? Somebody's keyboard stuck?

I'm tempted to load up even more on my ultras but I have a feeling I'm going to be able to buy some even cheaper in the next couple of days.

Thanks, bobj - so it's not just me! Looks like someone was dumping a big position and tried to hide it in small transactions, but I can't tell. Why today? Going down tomorrow? !! That MM always torques the stock around, every morning, but that was ridiculous. On the charts, it shows up as a very tall price line, all at one price, all at one time, even though it took about 15 minutes to play out. Er, I should say, even though it appears that it is still playing out. Sheesh!

Hi,

Please allow me to post a comment that Brian Shannon from alphatrends.net has just posted on his website. www.alphatrends.net

"Addictive Trading

Are you an addicted gambler who attempts to puchase the market or a stock because it appears cheap after being "down too much"? Or do you trade only when you have a perceived edge. Trading for the sake of trading is a dangerous addiction which can lead to massive losses in a bearish environment. The path of least resistance is lower which means any rally should be viewed suspiciously. This is not a new message, I'm just typing it instead of saying it in a video. I remember the last bear market, and this one seems no different in terms of the psychology of the average participant. Confidence becomes temporarily bolstered by phrases like "don't fight the Fed" and CEOs who say "we are looking at weakness in the first half, but expect things will pick up in the second half of the year." In July and August, those same CEOs will say "we are seeing a bit of a rough patch but expect things will pick up in the first half of next year" and on and on... The market is broken, it will take time to heal before it can sustain a move higher again. Do not listen to people who boldy say "that was the bottom", listen to the market. It is said that the average bull market lasts for 39 months and the average bear market lasts 18 months, we could be in for a much longer stretch of selling than most people want to admit. Maybe this one bottoms in just six months, we will only know when prices turn, not when PE ratios get to a certain level or when the Fed cuts by a certain amount. A bear market is the time when the phrase "suspend what you believe and trade what you observe" means the most. Look at Apple Inc (AAPL), they have great products, management, etc. For a long time it has been a great stock and now it too is broken. In bear markets all stocks fail, all stocks."

Cheers,

Or maybe someone's buying a big position ahead of either ECB cuts, or rumor of another 75 in the US next week, hence rocketing gold?

Zenob, I'm waiting on the Ultra shorts. After the .75 rate cut Tuesday with more coming I suspect SKF and SRS to be major deals towards the end of next week.

Then reality will once again slowly reassert itself.

For what it's worth that is what I'm thinking.

Days like today make me want to slit my throat.

Gotta scale into SKF here.

Been offsetting it with UYG and having some fun.

GFI...traded it fr