Black Cygnet arrives...

Included are volatility bands coming in and some DeMark TD Absolutes (tm)...verify independently...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/01/black-cygnet-arrives.html

Bill,

I appreciate the heads up and watch list. I'm sure you will be proven right yet again. It reminds me of your analysis and call during the August panic.

back at the Hotel Cara, where the trading is 24/7 and you can never leave...

i can see they're struggling to keep it green in europe- they'll need to keep it down until ben speaks...what kind of theatre would it be to jump the gun...

We wish to remind viewers that these sessions are automatically streamed to you via Skype. Receive them in the comfort of your desk or phone. You can join at http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

Bill: Thanks for the time you are putting in during these volatile market moves. I am reminded Michael Douglas playing the Gordon Gekko character in the movie "Wall Street" where he's on the beach in the early dawn, telling his young protege "Money never sleeps, Pal!"

Have been trading the e-mini futures on gold (YG) and the DOW index (YM) with moderate success in the overnight sessions.

Maybe DJ futures are up compared with Monday but down big compared with last Friday.

The ZD.H08.E (DJIA) CBOT values from INO: 11650 @ 6:50 AM, the DJIA future on Bloomberg is 11,649 @ 6:47 AM.

INO lists it as a gain of 58 pts,
Blmbrg lists as a loss of 457 pts.

As Steve said, I guess they have different inital points of reference.

Another place for live futures on the minis

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,432,00.html

Good Morning and best of luck to everyone.
Stick with your charts, RSI and buy alerts and kryptonite can't harm you.

2nd, check your mail if you haven't yet.

Oz pilgrims, Colin Twiggs has a new report out this AM on gold and currencies.
http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

Has anyone noticed the BIG SALE at the Wall Street stores? LOL!

They're offering major discounts on all my favorite products!
Where else do thay scare the crap out of you when they throw a big clearance sale? Isn't it crazy?

Oh, wait, have to watch Henry talk about the sale.

Anyone hear...

Paulson Speaking @ 8:00....

So many up SOO early...Wonder who could not sleep...

Thank you Bill...Covering my shorts and will wait to reload.

2nd_Ave...Glad to hear you are taking a longer term view of the market. Maybe now I will be able to keep up with you...Always appreciate your comments

craig- pre-market is open->7-8% moves in most of the ultras, almost twice that in some of the emerging market ultras...

FXI- looks a little stretched->picking up a little at 134.85 (shorting FXP more your style and may give you more bang..)

Hi Bill,

What do you think banks will do if they need to shore up reserves? Will they be more interested in having their traders out there on the floor or their risk management teams? Doesn't feel very staged to me... but I'm not a professional trader.

Gold doesn't feel too manipulated right now either... who will be buying gold when they're just trying to go to cash? Gold's going to be gapping down today. Will it go positive by the end of the day? Not sure that anyone needs to keep the price down.

Wasn't it DOW 8000 you were looking for?

Wile E. Coyote moment indeed. Did anyone get a chance to take a look at TSX 10 yesterday and see where the next levels of support are from a technical standpoint, and then take into account the current market irrational de-exuberance? I'm curious to know where people think the next levels are for the largest holdings that could move the emotional indexes.

So we'll get some serious panic selling today, then a bounce to cover shorts by HB&B - or an intervention bounce, then some more selling, then a smaller bounce... is that the way a bear market usually works?

Wasn't 1987 a computer glitch? This doesn't feel like a computer glitch. This is a user error - dumb users thinking they can be insured from losses in stock market speculations by paying a small (growing larger) percentage of the price. But this is not even with their own money, it's insurance against loans of loans.

I wonder how confused the quant trading systems will get today, or will people just turn them off?

Are the leveraged buyouts that were supposed to happen with record DOW highs still going to happen with these lows?

"Bank of America Corp, the second-largest U.S. bank, said on Tuesday fourth-quarter profit sank 95 percent, hurt by more than $7 billion of losses tied to poor trading decisions and mounting credit woes.
Net income for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company fell to $268 million, or 5 cents per share, from $5.26 billion, or $1.16, a year earlier.
Analysts' average forecast was a profit of 19 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Bank of America shares fell $1.97, or 5.5 percent, to $34.00 in pre-market trading."

http://tinyurl.com/2qcbwx

That's not so bad... they still made money.

Maybe there will be a big range swing today... or maybe just a gap down and then flat. Does the US have to catch up with world markets before pumping any directional changes through?

bg- longer term can certainly work->sounds like you (and maybe BH also) finally cashed in the QID you opened last fall...(the FXP you picked up at 75 is about halfway to your target of 150 this morning)...

3/4 percent cut just announced

75 bp rate cut

WTH- my WTF list just lit up...

Bloomberg just mentioned that this rate cut could spark more panic selling. Hmm...

822- just 8 minutes early->it was a good beard day LOL

Let them panic sell...

I got some $$$$$$$$$ to put to work...

FXI- out at 141.50...

I stand corrected. Need to get one of those crystal balls lol.

Too bad. Wish they would have waited till after the market opened to see what bargains we could have gotten this AM.

Like I said yesterday, I bought 3 Canadian small caps yesterday and got good prices (unless there is an economic meltdown)). You have to start buying into this mess, because you're not going to pick the exact bottom and then put all your money to work on that day.

craig- new record, my man->5% in 19 minutes->it's too early, or i'd down one for ben LOL...

"Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced a fourth quarter 2007 net loss of $3,255.6 million, or a net loss of $31.85 on a per share basis. This compares to fourth quarter 2006 net income of $202.7 million, or net income per diluted share of $1.88."

http://tinyurl.com/38gbnm

Maybe the whole plan was to unlock these CDOs and credit swap insurance schemes by having companies default... and it backfired?

Bill,

Is your house in Canada for rent?

I gotta get out of the US..For some sanity...

I am willing to pay anyprice :^)

AMBAC is seeking a suitor after $3.26 billion loss:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoQISj8w4Z90&refer=home

BofA just had massive losses in the 4Q:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTiuQYFFgAo4&refer=home

craig- new record, my man->5% in 19 minutes->it's too early, or i'd down one for ben LOL...

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

ABX - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
KSS - to Outperform @ Bernstein

Downgrade:

MBT - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

-------------------------------------------------

Advice from Don Harrold:

"I think you should stand back unless you have a specific set of criteria around which to make a trade (see below). There is no reason to try to catch this market on the hope of a bounce today. This includes day traders. The only reason - and this is a departure for me - to trade today is if you find a stock you like for the long-term that's been beaten down badly.

What does "badly" mean? "Badly" means a stock that's got daily, weekly, and monthly stochastics oversold, AND, the stock is down for the day, AND, the stock is down on a percent basis MORE than the market as a whole.

If you can find stocks that meet those criteria, you've found stocks to buy. The caveat I place on any buys today is this: You should NOT expect today to be "the bottom". ANY buys you make on this decline MUST be seen as ENTRIES to SCALE INTO. If you try to trade today in hopes of making a quick buck, you may be sorely disappointed. ANY stock you buy today should be bought in share sizes NO LARGER than 1/4 of what you'd normally buy.

Yes, I believe there are entries that will open today. No, I will not make a call on what stock it will be in. You must use what I've tought you about momentum indicators to find your own way today. I'll tell you this, though: If you break the rules I've outlined above you will pay a severe penalty if your guess is wrong."

-------------------------------------------------

"Luck is the meeting of preparation and opportunity"

Have a great and profitable day.

"One member of the committee, William Poole of St. Louis Fed, voted against the move."

no kidding?

full link:

http://tinyurl.com/35ycff

Alright, it's breaking news that the rate cut went through. Everyone be happy for free money.

Now, back to business. I've delayed the account transfer to IB. I'm able to trade today. I'm not hoping to pull 2nd's 5% in 20 min, but where are the trading opportunities? Junior gold miners going up due to weak dollar pushing gold up? Double down on DOW puts? Short the financials?

What will be the tell that this temp rally is over?

Alright, it's breaking news that the rate cut went through. Everyone be happy for free money.

Now, back to business. I've delayed the account transfer to IB. I'm able to trade today. I'm not hoping to pull 2nd's 5% in 20 min, but where are the trading opportunities? Junior gold miners going up due to weak dollar pushing gold up? Double down on DOW puts? Short the financials?

What will be the tell that this temp rally is over?

DOW futures are falling back down a bit. They were only down by 200-250 just a moment ago. Now they are down buy 300.

down 375 now.

Quentusrex...

I think the tell will be margin calls that will go out today and need to be satisfied in how many days???

Bueller, Bueller....Never had this problem, but I believe it is THREE DAYS...

I vote for Bernanke as the dumbest Fed chairman ever. He could have averted this whole mess if he cut .50 a couple of weeks ago and calmed the markets. Instead, he waited too long and now has to cut .75 just to avert a worldwide crash.

premarket for SPY DIA IWM QQQQ are all trading down over 3% right now....GLD down over 1%, but at the same time I see the futures up....

If the exchange sends out the margin call you have 2 days. The brokers can give from two to five days for a margin call.

http://personal.fidelity.com/products/trading/Commissions_Margin_Rates/Margin_Borrowing_Margin_Calls.shtml.cvsr

Well.. something stands corrected... maybe not me... a rally and then back down eh?

Let's see where this goes... in the meantime how long does your book take to ship to Toronto, or should I wait and get a signed copy at the Cambridge show?

Anyone going to Financial Forum in Toronto this week?

http://tinyurl.com/3aysqf

So if people aren't buying the dips, what's next?

Alright, so what is the best trade here? Buy or sell as soon as the market opens? or wait for a bit to let the market determine which direction it'll go?

Bill,

I'm a regular reader of your weekly review and if time allows your daily as well. My apologies for not contributing to your community but building a small asset management firm takes a lot of my time.

My weekly saturday run let me pass this time by a small village which might make you smile which helps in those markets. My apologies for the bad quality but I took the pictures with my phone. I learnt that you are going to expand your activities into the Bahamas but haven't been aware of your set-up on the swiss-french border near Geneva.

Not to make you to proud as you can see this tiny village has max 10 houses but a perfect view into the Alps and the Montblanc (when weather is better). You will not find this place via Google Maps because of its small size but it exists!

Best regards and to you and all members of the community

p.s. i tried to send the pictures to Bill via email but not sure if it works and i have no idea how to bring them in here. Perhaps someone can help?!

Thomas

Alright, so what is the best trade here? Buy or sell as soon as the market opens? or wait for a bit to let the market determine which direction it'll go?

Dow futures down 425 from Friday now. That's almost 200 point drop from the peak after the rate cut was announced.

weak follow through

Thomas, you could put them up on www.flickr.com then post the link here.

Thomas you can post it on www.flickr.com and post the link here.

Typekey.... :(

I'm actually glad they did the rate cut. I sold most of my ultra shorts Friday. Now if they have this bulltrap setup right I'll get an opportunity to re-load and ride this puppy down some more.

Congratulations 2nd! Glad your back.

I bought some GFI premkt

Couldn't buy FXI or GLD as I didn't transfer to IB yet fearing what Quentusrex was experiencing.

Stuck with ST premkt...
Sooooo, can't buy GLD with an 85 handle premkt or FXI at 133. Am I pissed?
Just imagine....

More opprotunities later, but it would have been nice.

You got the posts, right?

is it possible the train just backed up for more passengers...

The text of the Fed statement announcing the emergency cut makes no mention of the crash in the markets yesterday. Who do they think they are fooling?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahMktVQB_Ays&refer=home

Craig, you can wire transfer your account from any broker to IB, and as long as the wire transfer goes through before 2pm, you'll be able to trade on IB the next business day. So, basically if you take an early afternoon you can trade the next day with IB. I canceled the account transfer, and I'll start the transfer over either this afternoon, or some afternoon between now and friday.

if memory serves, the call Bill made was DOW 9800, about a year or so ago. now i gotta go find some stuff to buy!

Dow futures (on www.ino.com) briefly went negative...hmmm, looks like this market is going down w/a rate cut.

Here is the link. Did it with flickr.com. hope it works.

Regards

The text of the Fed statement announcing the emergency cut makes no mention of the crash in the markets yesterday. Who do they think they are fooling?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahMktVQB_Ays&refer=home

http://www.flickr.com/photos/23066159@N02/

Bank Of Canada Cuts Benchmark Overnight Lending Rate To 4%

That market genius, Jim Cramer, was already on BubbleVision demanding even more rate cuts.......and there's the rub.

No matter how much you give them, the bulls can't be satisfied.

Beware.

craig- yes, thanks..

i don't think a fizzled rally is going to do it->J6P (on the west coast) isn't even up yet, and it's over? they'll need to call a few desks to start placing sizeable bids...if that doesn't work, then i would cut my losses and start from scratch...

man, this type key bouncer is working over every post today...

there are two (or more) sides to every story, but my take is that brokers took calls from a large number of nervous investors who wanted out on the announcement, and supply came on line in strength...the 'real' effect of the rate cut remains to be seen...

Gold will be over 1,000 soon
I heard 50 more BPs?

I expected the 75bp this AM

cardinal rules should in fact rule, right: sell strength, buy weakness->doing the opposite just isn't going to turn out well...

Zenob,
Absolutely, ride any rally, sell into strength and then reload ultras and shorts.

I won't be daytrading the next down leg.

.75bp cut won't put people back to work so they can feed and cloth their children.
Today there will be another announcement of a few thousand people getting laid off some where, this has been happening for way to long now. .75bp cut will help the HB&B, but do nothing for the working poor that do make up an economy.

Zenob- i like the fact that bill likes your thinking...;)

Bill,

We agree, silver will be better IMO as well.
SS

From Bubblevision:

"The bull is not dead, he's just bleeding..."
"We're off our lows"
"There is NO recession"

What bunch of pathetic pollyannas and corporate shills.

nasdaq down 117 points 5% on my streamer. Can that be right?

I'm glad I held my FXP position over the weekend. It's up 23%...

A rate cut in Japan seems a rather comic gesture.

BC Bouncing around even...

Take a look at the stocks Bill mentioned today

more apparent by the minute DB sellers not the only ones who got ripped off...

nice move on GFI, craig...

Zenob- i hope you sold it...

2nd Ave said "there are two (or more) sides to every story, but my take is that brokers took calls from a large number of nervous investors who wanted out on the announcement, and supply came on line in strength...the 'real' effect of the rate cut remains to be seen"...

I can verify this is correct. I am fielding calls from the least sophisticated requesting a hatchet job.

2nd Ave said "there are two (or more) sides to every story, but my take is that brokers took calls from a large number of nervous investors who wanted out on the announcement, and supply came on line in strength...the 'real' effect of the rate cut remains to be seen"...

I can verify this is correct. I am fielding calls from the least sophisticated requesting a hatchet job.

NOW BC AND bBBY ARE POSITIVE

BAC ALMOST POSITIVE>>>>

BAC almost even. Time to short ?

There was some discussion of margin calls earlier. Those using IB should be aware that IB liquidates holdings in real time (no 2 or 3 days) to satisfy margin deficiencies. See their website for details:

http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/marginRequirements/margin.php?ib_entity=llc

basketguy, you beat me to it!

The vix hit 37.57 which is in line with the panic of Aug 07.

Wow, a lot of people robbed blind in the first minutes of trading.

BAC (and UYG) just went green (and back)...

home depot and wal mart are positive. vote of condfidence for the us economy going forward?

Gold spot is ~$4 over the near futures price right now.

Robbed of my KRY & CC shares this morning... don't really care.

Still holding HGD...

I tried to sell it. There were too man sell orders and it just sat there unfilled until it was even again. I had to cancel the order.

watch for the probe lower....

Took a position in UYG this AM and am now out.
XLF reversed and is now falling.

BAC conference call not a help.

Took profits on GFI, look to reload if given the chance.

BRK/B halted as was GFI for a bit.

Scaled into PGH at 13.99. Please come back to me at $13!!!

Morpheus Trading has an article detailing their trading rules for gap opens. Good & useful.

http://morpheustrading.com/education_article_gaprules.htm

if the entire '06-'07 rally was paulson's pride (as bill puts it), then i think they try their best to close green...and if not today, certainly by thursday..how would you like to land in zurich on friday->striding and fiving with ben after single-handedly turning around the global melt-down, or->there is no other option, man...might even be a 'beard bet' at stake here...LOL

Considering that Pacific Rim markets are down ~14% in the last two trading sessions, today's rate cut is probably the best thing available to attract dollars into the U.S.

Considering that Pacific Rim markets are down ~14% in the last two trading sessions, today's rate cut is probably the best thing available to attract dollars into the U.S.

I know, it sounds completely absurd that a rate cut somehow attracts dollars.

that may be it for the probe->adding to UYG at 30.66...

Gold spot in positive territory making up for losses, still in backwardation this morning.

playing with fire 2nd?

Wow they are throwing the kitchen sink into this one.

Fido is having issues. I'm getting "order status unavailable" on my trades now. Don't know if my orders are going through or not.

My SKF order just went through. Took 5 minutes. This is crazy.

Brazilian (Cara 100) company discussed here before . . . ag play . . . opening position in PDA @ 39.40

UYG: out at 32.27

Zenob,

Any time volume spikes, Fido's web site gets overwhelmed. I have an account with them and after experiencing this problem twice last year, I chose to take my stock trading to ETrade, leaving just a few mutual funds with Fido.

They do have good customer service, although I do not understand why they will not fix this recurring problem.

If it wasn't for their monthly minimum, I would suggest IB.

Anyone else having issues trying to log on to their account at TD Ameritrade?

can't even log into TD Ameritrade....possibly system overoaded?

AdamG, TDAmeritrade is have web access issues for sure. Their strategyDesk app tho is working fine...

Another round of selling?

Re: CDE- I think it finally makes its move soon.
Silver hasnt even "spiked" yet and the insiders loaded up in the 3's and 4's so far.
The dilution has been as issue as well as poor management in the past, but nonetheless, I feel its overpessimistic analysis, and the day will come for this silver stock.
GL

/

This is the way I see it: Ben had no choice but to cut this morning. BofA earnings down 95%. Ambac earnings loss of $31.45 per share, and on the verge of bankruptcy. "They" could not wait until the Fed meeting next week. Paulson's speech was just the placeholder, so "They" could get everyone's attention. This had to be done in time for the market to shake it all out and settle down by this Friday. Next Monday, January 28th, two days before the Fed's Jan. 30th meeting, Junior has to be able to appear before the nation and say, "The state of our union is strong," and not get booed or laughed off the podium.

Re: CDE- I think it finally makes its move soon.
Silver hasnt even "spiked" yet and the insiders loaded up in the 3's and 4's so far.
The dilution has been as issue as well as poor management in the past, but nonetheless, I feel its overpessimistic analysis, and the day will come for this silver stock.
GL

Look at all the buying in XLF. It's crazy. It's like someone thinks that the rate cut is going to magically fix everything. I'm SOO going to load up on SKF today.

Zenob,

Thinking the same thing here. Time approaching to add to SKF. It's a lay-up, IMHO.

with online brokers like TD Ameritrade overloaded, so much for "nimble" traders.....sigh....

Buying more FNC.V. Yesterday, BMK.V came out with a lackluster drilling report which helped drive down all of the McFauld's Lake plays. Still waiting for Fancamp's first report.

with online brokers like TD Ameritrade overloaded, so much for "nimble" traders.....sigh....

Bill said: "If you look to the Cara Accumulation Zone and the Buy Alerts in the recent Daily Report tables, you will see the following:

Buy Alerts (with latest closing price): BC ($15.09), KSS ($40.00), BBBY ($27.05), JCP ($40.93), WAG($33.71), TM ($99.70), PAYX ($33.71), BDK ($65.75), BA ($78.40), DELL ($21.08), CTSH ($26.00), YHOO ($20.78) and WHR ($71.53)"

And Later: "look to those stocks who have a flat or reversible MACD"

And: "they will come through with more ratings upgrades. Watch for those this morning"

Looked at the charts, Bull Hunter Posted the upgrade and KSS up close to 9% from when I bought it. I looked at BAC and WB to look for the beginning of the move up.

You know sometimes it just all clicks - thanks Bill and Community!

watch for reversal after the indices fill the gap...like NOW...

"Considering that Pacific Rim markets are down ~14% in the last two trading sessions, today's rate cut is probably the best thing available to attract dollars into the U.S."

FranSix, do you mean in the sense of "sovereign wealth fund A gives cash infusion to Bank B?" That sort of thing? By the way, why do Middle Eastern countries want banks who's shares are plummeting and have unknown derivative losses? I'm not being facetious--I really want to know.

Fred: How's NOT.V looking? No real time...

Canadian carry-trade anyone?

"With the 75 basis point reduction by the Fed this morning, the Canada/US interest rate gap has gone from zero to plus 50 basis points. This positive Canada/U.S. interest rate gap will, in itself, put upward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Global Insight expects more reductions from the Fed than from the Bank of Canada going forward, further widening the Canada/US gap."

http://tinyurl.com/2uc78o

Will CAD go above par by next week?

Craig,

NOSOF in US BID 2.90 Ask 2.94 Close Friday 3.10

wavesmash- playing with fire indeed->flying blind with Fidelity right now (quotes are fine, but order status is hit or miss)...cutting back the daytrades, but can't complain->the market could be going the other way....

Herb Greenburg puts this morning's rate cut into perspective:

http://tinyurl.com/29edb2

Hi Denny, I'm anticipating a major shift in the flow of investment funds out of markets and into currencies. The fed cut seems to favour the long euro/short dollar trade - this should reverse course at some point with a long dollar/short euro trade.

Craig,
I got shut out of BillCara and couldn't get back in. NOT.V at 2.98 cdn. Bid 2.98 ask 3.00.

"Morpheus Trading has an article detailing their trading rules for gap opens. Good & useful."

I just went long EEM. Looking for a strong close here and rally overseas tomorrow. We should get a retest of the 200 ema (@~137), which is my profit target.

Tight stop, however, as the market is clearly unpredictable.

Sold my ZOLT shares for a slight gain. I had been sweating being long all weekend when I was short going into Friday.

After my trades settle I'll look for timing to go into double short ETF's again. Being long this market is just too damn scary. It appears I got lucky on this one.

I had been using SKF and SRS..any opinions on other double short high performers?

Had no problems with Scottrade this morning while I was watching and selling my ZOLT shares.

Thank you for the quotes guys.

I day traded this pop like a caffeinated monkey.
UYG has been very good to me this AM, a few times. Wish I had been paying closer attention when SKF was at 117, congrats on those that struck quickly.

I'm back to my opening positions and waiting for any op to add to short positions (which I should have been seeing with SKF....DUH).

If this is all .75 basis pts does then we're gonna get several more of these.

Why go all out when the rates will go lower?
As will the market...

Good morning!

My actions thus far today: scaled into SKF, sub 121. Waiting, watching in awe at volatility.

Financials will likely show further bleeding. I believe the future quarters of earnings releases will be full of writedowns, e.g. Citigroup still with a 37billion dollar exposure to CDO's.

Fortunate so far with online broker today.

Stu

JVS3

Today I made a monster killing with my FXP from last week. I planned to reload again in the future when the markets rallies up.

Here are some of the ETFs shorts I have had good success with... FXP,QID,SDS,RWM

Greenspan, in his book said that they were planning an 'insignificant' $100B relief package after 9/11. (from what I can recall, can't find the exact quote)

Apparently inflation puts that up to $150b today.

"I'll be glad to answer a few questions. QUESTION: Mr. President, can you achieve funding for the military and homeland security without dipping into the Social Security and Medicare accounts?

And, Chairman Greenspan, if I could...

BUSH: Well, wait. I promised him that he could come. He's an independent soul, he can have a press conference elsewhere. But one of the things we're not going to do is drag the chairman into a press conference, otherwise he won't come back to the White House.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

BUSH: Well, you can find him in his place of business.

Sorry to tell you how you do it. It's a new year.

(LAUGHTER)

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

BUSH: I plan to be much more assertive with the press.

(LAUGHTER) "

http://tinyurl.com/ytys8g

"BUSH: Well, first in terms of monetary policy, I'll leave that in the hands of our chairman, Chairman Greenspan. He's done a fabulous job in running the Federal Reserve, and for that America should be grateful. "

Indeed.

Thanks Isaiah. I have a couple days while trades settle to research those.

Fidelity seems to be executing market orders in a timely fashion, but reporting is delayed up to 13 minutes or so (at least in the case of my last order). It's disconcerting to not know where your money is.

So where's the revenge of the apocalypse nerds now?

craig- UYG- a (partial) sale finally went through at 33.37 on a 33.35 limit->of course, it was placed at 1118am EDT...LOL...(have another limit order at 33.80 placed even earlier that remains (apparently) unfilled...

Translation, go long FXI?

Bill

What's your gut feeling on Shanghai Fly's comments?

isaiah- congrats...so you were the one sleeping like a log monday night ;)

Ugh.
Left my long positions (INTC, EXPD, WCG calls) on with widened stops planning to ride things out and watch for entry points....so far not much fun today.

WCG stops have been activated on mild volume, but still working. Since it is in a intra-day consolidation pattern now, I am assuming that just after my sell order fills to maximize my loss it will start a parabolic move upward, LOL.

Bill, you're making me wish my FXP sell order had went through this morning...

2nd,
It's not the UYG trading desk....my orders clear immediately. And that's with ST!!!!

This morning I was getting delays galore. A bit scary, but I was buying.

If you look at the XLF 5 min/daily you can see exactly where I was in and out. Nice chart to trade on, well defined trends. Up with UYG and down with SKF.

I'm just waiting for it all to come to me again.
Sure wish I could have gotten into FXI at 133 premkt....

Looks like another shot coming for UYG, gotta go!

woot. Sell order on WCG filled...may look to jump back in at lower basis...

Ket etfs are in congestion zones, breadth is still 2:1 negative given the strong move. Waiting for a break of congestion zones, either way for a trade.

Believe prices will make a lower low than where it is right now..though may not test the low of the day.

IF so , and with afternoon strength...will reload LONG the last minute on AAPL, GS, CHL, FXI and EEM for 2-3 days tll price targets are hit..

Not shorting at these levels, and too much pressure on US markets to show leadership, better opportunities for shorts later.

craig- holiday worked in our favor this time->and yogi came through for us (again) in the clutch...how many times has hanging in there till the final play vindicated a trade->nothing beats throwing a hail mary after the crowd has started to thin out...and it really ain't over till it's over...

Citi analyst Craig A. Ellis expects just 1.2 percent U.S. GDP growth and sees unemployment reaching 6 percent in early 2009 amid a mild but prolonged recession.

"Ellis said the implications are clearly negative for finished-goods consumption and therefore for the chip market. Indeed, the more upbeat tone on global hardware end demand from original equipment manufacturers Apple, IBM and Seagate as well as component suppliers such as Intel, Linear Technology, Skyworks Solution and Xilinx this reporting season elevates risk that a more cautious tone could emerge as the year progresses."

could have just bought bill's entire buy list at the open->and be up 8% right now...who's to say where it will be thursday close...

time horizon stops going into the davos summit this weekend, right->too many pundits/no shortage of groupies...

Anybody calling a bottom here?

http://tinyurl.com/2gge6t

"Following Monday's torrid action in Asia and Europe, the loss of world equity value for 2008 to date is now put above $5 trillion."

http://tinyurl.com/yvaewr

Wavesmash,
"Anybody calling a bottom here."
Yahoo Finance Poll....66% say we're going deeper. FWIW

wow... spike back on HGD... been hovering between $10 & $10.50

We'll have to wait and see how market psychology takes hold in Asia-Pacific markets before deciding whether we are visited by 'The Big Kahuna' and assorted calamities.

2nd,
We should have been more confident in Ben rescuing friends and family.

We just happened to be standing in the right crowd! All around I'm much better than when we opened.

I'd like a couple more shots like we had at the open....and I think, unfortunately, they will come to us.

In the meantime just watching, waiting.
Oh, playing the financials, where the action is bound to be.

World Indexes page at INO.com have the Asia-Pacific indexes down, while all others are steady:

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=WORLD

Why there's probably a bigger train coming... from the previous article I posted.

"In Frankfurt this morning the cost of insuring against bond-default by European companies shot to new record highs, with credit default swaps on investment-grade debt rising 8% in price.

High-yield bonds became 6.4% more expensive to insure using CDS."

That seems like a lot. Wouldn't that cause bonds to sell off?

This is either the deal of the decade or something else.

I guess I'm looking for next couple of weeks. Don't think it's worth looking at macro picture this year.

wavesmash No wonder Buffett wants to get in that business.

UYG- scaling back in at 32.07...

Tried to order your book. Figured it would be a better investment than anything else today.

Fatal error: Call to a member function MoveNext() on a non-object in /u2/home/booksonb/public_html/estore/includes/modules/pages/pubs_product_book_info/main_template_vars.php on line 237

Looks like they need to implement friendly error handling.

Just not my day... :)

The large move down in the market averages since mid-October 2007 has removed some but not all of the price risk in this bear market. We are waiting for a number of the sentiment and technical indicators we follow to reach extreme readings to declare a more bullish tone to the market. And the only way to reach those extreme readings will be for the market to move further down. So, in the meantime we wait...

For those that missed our January 8th bear market call, you can visit our website at www.2globalmarkets.com for the full research report.

Bank of America's debt is under review by Moody's.

Traffic details for billcara.com:

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/billcara.com

3PM -4PM

Sell off...or...Rally?

Anyone want to stick out their neck and make a call?

isaiah- your turn, man ;)

Out of my FXP at 98.64. I'm still steamed that I couldn't get my fido order to execute this morning when it was 108. :-(

:^)

Can't ...the overseers will get up set with me again.

Zenob

Don't worry.... you and I are going to ride the FXP express train again very soon... let it pull back again...and this time you and I will buy a 1st class ticket Zenob!

Make the call! We don't have overseers, except one. As long as you are polite no one cares.

Several anecdotes from Minyanville today that credit issues are starting to affect small businesses, which is new since most previous news concerned the consumer.

Economically, it seems we have a ways to go before bottom.

Anyone think the PM juniors are going to rally convincingly now, especially if the Fed cuts again in a week?

Bill,

I think you'll be best served with Google Analytics (http://www.google.com/analytics). You just have to register and then insert a small amount of HTML code in the source code of the site.

Thanks,

Re: Alexa

Ok, BC, was just not aware.

F6

Pay very close attention to this last hour.The bulls need a firm last hour to regain some sort of momentum for the very short term. In October of 1987 it was the relentless downward price action of the last 90 minutes that caused a panic. No need to be a hero-keep tight stops on all bids and offers.

i'll try to explain how i attempt to game it, although these kinds of explanations fall short->think paulson/bernanke want it up (and they have influence), think the public wants it up, think longs who held on this morning definitely want it up...media is confused, but sound like they want it down, large number of vocal timers with audiences want it down, shorts want it down, and anyone who sold this morning wants it down...

it took cajones, but paulson/bernanke pulled it off->they mananged to reverse momentum (see bill's opening comments), and it will be hard to stop...

last hour will test bears' mettle, but difficult to see them standing firm in the face of a possible short-squeeze...if i were short, would be asking myself how much more i can expect than 8 down days capped by a spike down this morning->why hold overnight and risk an overseas relief rally?

JMHO

Long into the 3PM - 4PM close, will hold overnight as long as the DJIA doesn't fall below 11,880.

For the more experienced traders here, given the recent negative sentiment: How many times can an index safely bounce around narrow support & resistance levels as the Dow has done since this morning before the basement floor rots away? Or, put this way, does the chance of a positive breakout diminish the longer this bouncing continues? In addition to market breadth, (advances / decliners) what other indicators help in deciding?

Thanks.

JMHO

Posted by: 2nd_ave

A very good one at that. I'll look for the rally!

Actually, it looks like wavesmash's problem is with the http://www.booksonbiz.com/ site (I'm looking into it). But the billcara.com site was overloaded, so I disabled commenting for a while. If anyone had trouble posting a comment in the last 20 minutes, my apologies. I think I've worked around the problem now, so feel free to try now. We will be addressing the root issues here in the coming months, but until then there may be some temporary downtime.

also like the huge amount of skepticism/absence of hope->contrarian play is to climb the wall of worry...

I would say that if Asian markets continue to decline, then the market psychology will be the same in the west. The rate cuts in the U.S. alone might not be enough, imo, because rate cuts may be in order in the euro zone. One really strange effect was the rally in the Bovespa and the IPC. All of the BRIC countries should be experiencing the same rout as Asia.

But that would also require a sectoral comment on how bullion might perform, and whether gold miners are to remain stable with minimal losses. There would certainly be an inflow of capital into short term liquid investments, and out of the emerging markets story.

Still looking for a interim target high of ~$930.- for bullion.

Here comes the last hour rally.

anyone disagree with the idea that that gold has been voting on the rate cut all day? that's just how I'm looking at it, from a novice's point of view.

No matter...I'm watching financials and indices and plan to be flat trades excepting the few select longs I would add to on these dips.

I like the financial trade into the close, either up or down. I think the market follows.

Any thoughts on gold? Everybody's been so focused on the major market move today that gold has kind of gotten the back seat today. I'm still planning to start buying physical metal soon but I wanted to wait for as much of a pull back as I could get. With this emergency rate cut, is this going to put the breaks on gold's slide or does anybody think the CBs will attack and push it lower?

Current S&P level implies FXP retreat to 94.80 or so--not scientific, just eyeballing chart.

Here comes the last hour rally.

Hi Bill,

I agree about alexa,my virus scanner(pc cillen) pegged it as a danger so I do not use it.

A few things to consider as we see if we have an interim bottom at 11,500area. If the BushCo syndicate change the capital gains tax code and do enact a bailout for the bond insurers, things might be getting better as far as sentiment, i.e. we may be heading towards some light IMO, at least see some.
AAII Bear to bull at record levels this AM.

I told you they wouldnt allow a crash via 75bp with the NYGiants in the SuperBowl :-)

GL.

/

If PPT is in business they should bounce this baby up a bit to lubricate Asia. Most of my holdings are on the Venture Exchange which seems to be strongly correlated to the Dow when the Dow goes down and inversely correlated when the Dow goes up.

Bill,
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but the Paulson Pride, and credit cycle may have been delayed in part so they could get their bought out ducks in a row for the Primaries.
Ron has no chance now really, but imagine if we did have a huge market drop this summer/fall.

/

The link to Bill's book on the main page should be working again now.

If PPT is in business they should bounce this baby up a bit to lubricate Asia. Most of my holdings are on the Venture Exchange which seems to be strongly correlated to the Dow when the Dow goes down and inversely correlated when the Dow goes up.

With a rally in the loonie, its hard to accept a strong rally in the TSX. It could only be the very same market psychology that they expect a bounce and the PPT is going to save people's bacon with U.S. taxpayer money.

isaiah- (continuation)

longs are extremely motivated today (ie, much to lose, and not just dollars)...shorts are pushing their luck

paulson/bernanke clearly won a round this morning (who knows how much of the battle went on behind the scenes, but with capital markets->don't think anyone cares how you pull it off, as long you do it, and they pulled it off)...that makes for strong headwinds and i would pick a better time to fight that battle...

I have just read that the present Dow P/E is 44.0

This really surprised me so I thought I would pass it on.

Regards

2nd

you nailed it... I jumped in a little while ago
FXI @ 144.37 and it taking off now. Whether to hold over night is going to be a nail biting decision in hopes of an Asian rally with a BIG bounce tomorrow.

how do you all like the synchroxicity of these ETFs arrriving at the days high .together....isnt it cute?...took a screen shot for memories....:)

Hi guys, been away with my back acting up, but listening to the puppets on tv. There is a lot of noise that wall street is looking for another half point cut next week. So to get there it would seem to me that any rally will be short lived and we will see some more pain before next weeks meeting. Anyone else see it the same way? I'm looking at buying puts in abk, mbi and other financial stocks over the next day or two. I think hrb and slm are going down over 50% but that could take a couple of quarters

EEMTRADER...

Guess you won't get that chance to load up at the close like you wanted to do...

Da Boyz always working against us :^)

you already have a large (and unexpected) gain holding FXP through the weekend->you walked up to the table with a stack of reds/greens and they ended up coloring up for you->nothing wrong with leaving a couple of blacks on FXI overnight, my man (for me, it will be UYG)...good luck...(and apologies if comparing investing in the current environment to table games offends anyone, but [unfortunately], it fits)

you already have a large (and unexpected) gain holding FXP through the weekend->you walked up to the table with a stack of reds/greens and they ended up coloring [it] up for you->nothing wrong with leaving a couple of blacks on FXI overnight, my man (for me, it will be UYG)...good luck...(and apologies if comparing investing in the current environment to table games offends anyone, but [unfortunately], it fits)

basketguy...I am one of DA BOYZ...:)

'coloring [it] up for you'

2nd
Tried to sell FXI at 146.68 using market order...it took... honest... 50 sec for the order to go through and finally at 146.10 it sold.

As Craig would say WTF?

Now..I'm flat

that's OK, man...you can pick it back up where you originally jumped in (or not)...no advice here...

aapl reports after the close...

i'll do it for you, man...(adding) FXI at 144.60...

It's a good thing the casino is closed for the day... with a last spike of buying for good measure. HGD just moved on me almost a buck downward.

Let's see what tomorrow brings...

Yes more "active dollars" put to work on the requisite plunge through 11700

Soros - worst since WWII
Big picture of a Bear on the Globe and Mail

blah blah

Won't add anymore until bottom is proven and tested.

Behaviour so far is bouncelike shortcovering - with the wrong sectors (ie: gold) responding to the rate cut.

good trading all

btw C hit 22 as expected.

"I am one of DA BOYZ...:)"
Posted by: EEMTRADER [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 22, 2008 3:46 PM

i believe that...

EEMtrader..

I knew there was a reason I liked you so much...

You are not a market specialist are you?

Yes more "active dollars" put to work on the requisite plunge through 11700

Soros - worst since WWII
Big picture of a Bear on the Globe and Mail

blah blah

Won't add anymore until bottom is proven and tested.

Behaviour so far is bouncelike shortcovering - with the wrong sectors (ie: gold) responding to the rate cut.

good trading all

btw C hit 22 as expected.

2nd

Put in a low ball bid on FXI @143.90 around 3:55PM

Woooow ...it's my day.... it took... then closed out at 144.50.

Mmmm... looks like some of your trading "MOJO" is finding me. Thanks!

Looks like markets with strong energy producing sectors outside of the conflicted middle east did well.

Although I read this blog hourly and probably one of the more regular readers...I hardly ever comment but how can I not comment on a day like today...

Im not going to attempt to predict what will happen tommorrow...too many unknown variables...however, today in my opinion was not copitulation...nobody ever panicked the market opened and from nearly the first tick the market only provided relief to the longs...

I sold my QID position in full near the open...I bought back 1/4 my position at 15:46:18 at 49.877...this is the position I trade...

I am bearish with currently no net long positions
Short AAPL (right into earnings :) might hurt)
Short CME
Short GME
Short SYUT (wish i could add to this)
Short VMW (put options)
Short AMZN
Long QID (trading position)

I appreciate the discourse this blog provides and a big thanks to Bill for all the work you do...

Hey bigboyz, none of that dirty "copitulation" talk on this blog :.)

2nd

correction...still holding FXI...meant to say it closed today @144.5

I guess I'm still flying high from the FXP sell earlier today.

I have no insights to share - just wanted to say thank you to Bill for his insights. I played the bounce buying several positions this AM, sold them after some reasonable gains, then shorted a couple that went down from their daily peak. Closed those shorts as the market started to meander around 2pm. Stayed out of the unknown rollercoaster to the close. The market is slowly teaching me (or I am slowly learning) not to be greedy.

Thanks Bill - I had a decent day - looking forward to the next dance.

bg- if i recall correctly, EEMTRADER retired at 40 and now trades professionally for his own account...put the two together and you get a profile of someone who fits in that category...

I have no insights to share - just wanted to say thank you to Bill for his insights. I played the bounce buying several positions this AM, sold them after some reasonable gains, then shorted a couple that went down from their daily peak. Closed those shorts as the market started to meander around 2pm. Stayed out of the unknown rollercoaster to the close. The market is slowly teaching me (or I am slowly learning) not to be greedy.

Thanks Bill - I had a decent day - looking forward to the next dance.

2nd:
Holding UYG looking alright aftermkt.
Holding FXI We'll see.

What the heck.
My longs and trades were nice to me today.

I'm liking the Bernanke put.....LOL!

Thanks 2nd_ave...

When I use Da Boyz I am referring to the market Specialists...

Not usually the professional traders...

40 and Retire...Sounds good to me, I have a few years to go :^)

AAPL getting bids after hours about 1.5% higher...i see the earnings announcement has been delayed until 1700 EDT, but is Steve Jobs the kind of guy who would do that if he had bad news?

I'm willing to expand my statements with a broad brush to include any markets in countries with an energy producing sector, presumably no exposure to the housing sector derivatives sold by HB&B, and no leadership role in regional conflicts in the middle east and Afghanistan are attracting the capital that would otherwise be repatriating into the U.S. out of Asian markets.

Ruh Roh..APPLE not Looking good

135.00 and change

aapl disappointing guidance....looks like the Q's open down in the AM.

Basketguy....no...not a market specialist, ust used to hang out with a bunch of investment bankers and makret makers that showed me how they really make money.

Just useful to be contrarian when the pucker factor is high.I retired when I sold my company....decided to find more useful ways to manage my money.

Gave some to a broker in Hong Kong to buy Chinese IPOs, some to train myself how to trade, some to women I hardly know.... :) So here I am in the thick of it...learning and growing a whole different game..

pro trader does not=mkt specialist
neither does 40 + retired
but add the two together->approximate the mentality (maybe even the means) of a market specialist...

AAPL is falling more than 12% after hours due to future estimates ($6.8 Bln) below analyst expectations ($6.9 Bln).

It looks like Apple beat estimates and none-the-less took a 12% thrashing after hours. Methinks this rally is going to be a short with this kind of investor psychology.

AAPL- 0.94 vs 1.09 forecast for Q2...

"some to women I hardly know...."

I know lots of people that did this....
If only they had done the former they could have afforded the stupidity.

PBR was up 10.6% today in Brazil on the new discovery of the huge gas field, yet it was up only 2.6% in the US.

EEMTRADER...

Great to have you here. Would love to read your book someday...

I am sure the stories would be amazing...

I hope you were not offended by my comment. If you were I apologize

moab- maybe, but i'm willing to take a chance on AAPL at 139-small position only (that's another 5% below today's trading low)->not making recommendations for anyone else...

Basketguy...no offense taken at all...in good humor...if u r ever in vegas, hong kong, hawaii or southern cal...we can go golf and i can introduce you to some women I hardly know if you like...:) Feast on abalone when we stink at trading...and humble ourselves on bread and jam when we do well ..:)

Basketguy...no offense taken at all...in good humor...if u r ever in vegas, hong kong, hawaii or southern cal...we can go golf and i can introduce you to some women I hardly know if you like...:) Feast on abalone when we stink at trading...and humble ourselves on bread and water when we do well ..:)

craig- over 16 hours to market open...going to wait until 915 EDT to call opening direction for the Q's (LOL)

craig- over 16 hours to market open...going to wait until 915 EDT to call opening direction for the Q's (LOL)

Furthermore, the Russian market should see the exact same moves at the TSX. I suppose this would mean a rally in oil prices to support the idea of energy producing countries remote from subprime.

http://www.rts.ru/?tid=690

Now, I think oil and the euro are done in their respective bull markets, but the fundamentals favouring them are renewed temporarily until either a rate cut in the eurozone changes the whole scenario, or perhaps some kind of conflict in the middle east heats up.

activedollars posted:

"Behaviour so far is bouncelike shortcovering - with the wrong sectors (ie: gold) responding to the rate cut.

Posted by: activedollars at January 22, 2008"

I am curious as to your agenda. A drop in rates, unless baked in the cake, would drop the dollar and rally gold. Why would gold be in the "wrong sector" to rally on today's rate cut? Maybe I am reading your post incorrectly?

"I am bearish with currently no net long positions
Short AAPL (right into earnings :) might hurt)
Short CME
Short GME
Short SYUT (wish i could add to this)
Short VMW (put options)
Short AMZN
Long QID (trading position)

I appreciate the discourse this blog provides and a big thanks to Bill for all the work you do..."

Posted by: bigboyz [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 22, 2008 4:07 PM

it can really change on a dime...congrats...

EEMTRADER...

Hawaii...My favorite place on earth..Been there 3 times in the last 5 years...

Hoping to visit Kaimu one of these days..

Golf and Abalone sounds great, throw in some cheap beer and you are on. We may need to leave the women out...My wife may not approve...

isaiah- not a recommendation, but keeping in mind the potential correlation btw FXI and the Q's, will point out that AH bid/ask on FXI still above your last basis...haven't acted on it yet, but considering trading a little FXI for AAPL or QLD, both of which are getting hit...

Bill--

I'm a trading newbie who's trying to learn as much as possible, as quickly as possible.

In the meantime, let me just say that your "classes" are a lot less painful than Mr. Market's lessons--and I like the price of your tuition a hell of a lot more. ;-)

Thanks for all you do.

Bill,

267 comments here on one day + all the chat wih skye.

The communiy is alive and kicking!

Once more: thank you and congratulations.

Cheers,

Comments by Mr Henry To:

"There is no doubt that folks at the Fed have already called Bank of America in advance to get a sense of where earnings will be and what the likely market reaction will be. The buck stops here, and the Fed would ease by 75 bps if they have to Tuesday morning.

I have said this many times before and will now say it again. The Fed, Treasury, FHLB, FDIC, GSEs, etc, can stop all this at will. Unlike the aftermath of the technology bubble during 2000 to 2002 - when all the excesses had to be cleansed out before the bottom - the Fed and the US government can come in and nationalize/socialize all the losses at will, ease the credit crunch, and flood the street with liquidity and credit. In other words, inflate, inflate, and inflate.

That is why liquidity crises generally do not last that long, unless one goes back to the days of the 19th century "gold standard" or the Great Depression days of the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s (think of the aftermath of the 1982 LDC debt crisis, the 1984 insolvency of the Continental Illinois Bank, the 1990s S&L crisis, the 1998 LTCM/Russian crisis, etc.). Before this develops into a wider credit crunch, the yield curve will again be significantly normalized, the GSEs limits will be raised, and the world's major central banks will coordinate and lower interest rates as well as flood the global markets with liquidity. Where that money ultimately goes they don't care - but what matters now, in the short-term, is that the banks' balance sheets will be repaired and the consumer will again be saved.

Even if the Feds Funds rate go all the way to zero, there are other ways to ease further, a la the "quantitative easing" policy of the Bank of Japan which began in 2001 and which only recently just ended. For example, the Fed can print money and actually use the excess funds to buy Treasuries all across the yield curve, not just on the short-end. Failing that, the Fed - in coordination with the Treasury (since the Fed is restricted to do so directly) - can buy "riskier" assets, such as Federal Agency debt, general mortgage-backed securities, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and even corporate bonds - in essence, handing out money at excessively low rates to all those who want to borrow. Even the Japanese did not have to go that route - but as Bernanke has mentioned before, there are many non-traditional tools available to the Fed and they will use them before we experience a general deflationary credit crunch/recession.

I think the "bottom" is now a done deal.

I am now moving on and will try to get a sense of whether this "bounce" will be sustainable going forward, and for how long. The one thing that is worrying me right now, especially since it's not on many folks' radar screens, is the potential of higher taxes on dividends and capital gains once the new President comes on board in 2009.

Obviously, I will continue to monitor my other leading economic indicators, but for now, the stock market (especially consumer discretionary and financials) has more than discounted the possibility of a recession sometime this year."

2nd_ave...yea it sure can change on a dime...AAPL will be a nice short for me tommorrow...

If I understand the modified capitalization-weighted methodology of the QQQQ I believe the weight of AAPL is about 4x that of the next greatest component or 12.31% of the total weight of the index. Can someone confirm this? If that is correct with aapl down 15% after hours wouldnt this be roughly a 1.8% drop in the QQQQ from AAPL's drop alone...I must be missing something or have bad information regarding this...

xlnt discussion in the latter part of the article about historic lows in the bullish percent indicators for equities (which craig has also brought up)-

http://tinyurl.com/32jwfc

bigboyz- no idea about the math, but if changes in the AH prices of AAPL and Q's are indicative, you're in the right ball park...

bigboyz- no idea about the math, but if changes in the AH prices of AAPL and Q's are indicative, you're in the right ball park...

g034:

My agenda is to make money and learn from those like yourselves who are more experieced.

By saying "gold" was the wrong sector to go up - I meant from a Central Banker's perspective.

They want to get the economy going - not drive all the money into gold, metals, oil wheat and fertilizer.

The fact that the stongest sectors were either (a) those that were the most heavily shorted, or (b) those that carry trade speculators run into everytime there is perceived US dollar weakness
in the US dollars

..Indicates to me traders mentality has not changed - they are simply treating this as a reflationary bounce.

If the US economic situation is going to improve - the US dollar should strengthen on a rate cut - and the economically sensitive sectors would respond - not gold.

For these reasons I did not pursue the QQQQ/QLD trade today - but remain in all the TSX positions stated yesterday - with energy positions partially hedged by a short and with NCX.

Anyone have any advice on what to do with AGU ahead of POT's earnings (on thurs I think)
I am considering selling the rest out off of today's bounce tomorrow - we seem to be on a "sell the news" agenda.

thx

active - we've had a few "illegal short of gold miners" on this board before and thought I'd sniff you out before it got out of hand...that is if you were in that camp - guess you are not.

You'll find this blog is full of well meaning, intelligent traders of all levels who feel strongly about this "community". The growth has been tremendous over the last few years and can't wait to see how it continues to grow.

Welcome!

Good luck and good trading!

Vorlon,

My read of the situation is that it is a solvency crisis. I am not familiar with Mr. Henry To, but I would challenge his assertion that the crisis is a liquidity crisis that will soon be over. There are a number of solvency issues waiting in the wings - credit card defaults, Alt A and prime mortgage defaults, commercial real estate downward spiral, write downs related to municipal and other bond down grades, junk corporate bond defaults and the banks holding pier loans that they cannot unload. The lower rates certainly help, but they will be more careful about lending standards and risk premiums. Trouble is just starting for the banks and consumers have a huge debt load. I think it is a bit early to call a bottom and call off a recession.
I hope we have bottomed out temporarily, but there is a lot of pain ahead.

craig/isaiah- FXI-> bid/ask 147/148.50 on the back of a 472 point opening gain in the N225...you can unload now (20 minutes left in extended hours) at a 3% profit, or continue to hold....

2nd

I'm not set up for after hours trading. But I did check the lastest[7:22 EST] FXI bid @ 147.75 & ask @ 148.00 .

The bid & ask on QLD was down a little from the close.

So as of now I'll sleep good tonight. Hopefully Asia will bounce upwards tonight and I can take another mega point ride up tomorrow like today.
Time will tell.. alot can happen between now and then.

Looks like you had a stellar day trading today!

See you tomorrow.

ALOHA !!

You guys already know my view on GLD and SLV, the gold and silver ETFs. I have written a published article on the subject nearly a year ago. Recently I have mentioned here the lack of "supply" that will undo GLD and SLV. Well here is an article by Richard Greene who documents the supply issue is now happening. Now it is just a game of musical chairs. When the music stops the last holding you need in your portfolio is GLD and SLV or any ETF for that matter.

READ ON:
The following example a second grader should be able to follow. Yesterday GLD traded at a price of $87.05 while gold futures were $882.00 and spot gold was at $881.00. I called my best sources and the best quote I could get for purchasing one ounce of physical gold was $897.00. So here is the question: If you were buying ownership of gold at an effective price of $870.50 for an ounce of gold by buying the gold ETF at $87.05, how does the gold ETF turn around and purchase real physical gold for you when the spot price is $11.00 higher, the futures price is $12.00 higher and the physical price is $27.00 higher? That is a neat trick. I wonder how they do it. YOU SHOULD START WONDERING TOO! Do you really believe the GLD ETF can survive loosing $27.00 for every ounce of gold that they buy for you? Now you know why the custodian and sub-custodian’s agreements for these ETFs are so complicated and un-auditable. It would make sense that the GLD would have to trade at least $4-$5 higher than the price of gold if they were actually buying it, insuring it, guarding it, and delivering it. They say there is a sucker born every minute. This should help to prove that point.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/3djnl4

kaimu,

I appreciate your responses and always look forward to your posts. Are you also against stock ETFs like GDX? It seems GDX wouldn't have the same problem purchasing stock as GLD would have purchasing bullion.

ALOHA !!

SteveC ... I also wrote an article on the Powershares ETFs Ultra Shorts etc where I point out that a large part of their funds are in "illiquid investments"(up to 15% by prospectus), also credit swap derivatives and index derivatives and cash(money market fund)... This is not a stable investment in my mind simply because no average investor can understand or know exactly where or what their money is being used for at any given day. Warren Buffet has one major rule for investing ... If you cannot understand the business model and its structure then do not buy it! These days nobody even knows where their cash is or what it is doing. In my mind these ETFs are yet another game of "musical chairs". A game where HB&B plays with your money ... READ THE PROSPECTUS for the details. Most people do not!

ALOHA !!

SteveC ... I also wrote an article on the Powershares ETFs Ultra Shorts etc where I point out that a large part of their funds are in "illiquid investments"(up to 15% by prospectus), also credit swap derivatives and index derivatives and cash(money market fund)... This is not a stable investment in my mind simply because no average investor can understand or know exactly where or what their money is being used for at any given day. Warren Buffet has one major rule for investing ... If you cannot understand the business model and its structure then do not buy it! These days nobody even knows where their cash is or what it is doing. In my mind these ETFs are yet another game of "musical chairs". A game where HB&B plays with your money ... READ THE PROSPECTUS for the details. Most people do not!

Thank you 2nd, I was out and got back in a couple minutes too late. I did set-up a fantasy limit sale in the aftermarket for a third of my position and darned if it didn't sell.

Good luck on the aapl, down $25? I see it already was coming back from oversold.
Should be an interesting day tomorrow.

I said earlier that their are too many variables to forecast how the market will open tommorrow but due to AAPL I dont see how this market can do anything but fall tommorrow. AAPL effects the QQQQ more than any other component. Really wish I would of added my entire QID position back on at the end of the day...

Bernake, Paulson, and Bush are probably trying to figure out if their is any way to purchase 30 million iPODS in AAPL's just announced 2nd quarter.

"The one thing that is worrying me right now, especially since it's not on many folks' radar screens, is the potential of higher taxes on dividends and capital gains once the new President comes on board in 2009."

Vorlan, I absolutely agree with you.

I diversify my portolio according to possible future tax scenarios. One example: I've moved more money into my Roth, taking the tax hit for 2007. While the IRA rules can always change, I think there is likely to be more of a stink if suddenly Congress starts talkling about the idea of taxing Roths after all.

Anyone else have thoughts on this matter?

~ GemmaStar

TSX 60 top 10 holdings from yesterday if anyone's interested. Doesn't look like the pattern has changed.

SU
http://tinyurl.com/33cxmb
MFC
http://tinyurl.com/3a8w5p
RY
http://tinyurl.com/2l95ht
RIMM
http://tinyurl.com/2o7o5l
ECA
http://tinyurl.com/34uwqk
TD
http://tinyurl.com/388djw
BNS
http://tinyurl.com/33cupa
POT
http://tinyurl.com/3czll8
CNR
http://tinyurl.com/2kc2zt
ABX
http://tinyurl.com/3dm48y

To me, CNR, Manulife, and possibly RY seem to be the only interesting buys, though I'm not planning on buying much in this market, and probably not for a little bit longer.

Most are double-bottom breakdowns, some are triple.

Waiting for the X's to reappear. HGD still seems to have them. Berkshire Hathaway seems to have a Bearish Signal Reversed pattern, which is supposed to indicate demand outstripping supply.

Not sure how precise these P&F charts are... since it's a historical indicator.

QID is on an Ascending Top Breakout as is FXY, FXP is a Double Top Breakout.

hello,

Has anyone done dd or have an opinion on the near future prospects of GUYANA GOLDFIELDS??

TIA

Guyana Goldfields: Aurora Exploration Update-190m @ 5.09 g/t Au
Tuesday January 22, 1:54 pm ET

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 22, 2008 -- Guyana Goldfields Inc. (Toronto:GUY.TO - News) is pleased to announce the latest assay results of the diamond drilling program of two mineralized zones in the Golden Square Mile of its 100%-owned Aurora project. The project is located in the Cuyuni Mining District in the northwest of the Republic of Guyana, South America…….

http://tinyurl.com/2afv2n

How do folks feel about taking a short position on first thing in the morning on AAPL?

I thought I'd do a 115 put, but with the AH drop and the general 4H status of the stock, I am worried about a rebound after opening. Especially should the market as a whole go north.

I got my WCG back on at a lower basis for a small retrace this afternoon to come back on my losses, and I am guessing that the long EXPD & INTC should do ok tomorrow.

Soooo, I think I will put a tight stop on the AAPL position and leave the rest to run.

TIA!

NOTE: FOR PERSPECTIVE PURPOSE ONLY.

The world where only necklines plummet
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 23/01/2008

The stock market crash means nothing to the women who can afford to indulge in the ultimate fantasy of haute couture, says Hannah Betts

As the Masters of the Universe steel their collective nerve in the wake of the biggest stock market plunge since the September 11 attacks, there is one sector that appears to be suffering not one iota. Haute couture, Paris's system of "high dressmaking", is flourishing despite its death knell being sounded season after season.

This week's shows have so far been more enthusiastically supported than for years. Armani's audience on Monday was up by 15 per cent on last season, flooded by new initiates from Russia and the Middle East.

"Newer customers are changing the profile of the couture client," explains Harriet Quick, fashion features director of Vogue. "Ten years ago, they tended to be aristocrats, or Texan wives. Now there's a new generation of the super-rich from Russia and Eastern Europe. They have their wealth invested over so many different degrees of risk that the risk of failure is minimal - they're making money in their sleep."

And where husbands express their connoisseurship via an Aston Martin or a Klimt, so their wives thrill to building collections of this wearable form of art. They are also spurred on by the democratisation of luxury: if designer clothing is within the grasp of many, the super-rich don't want it.

As Nicolas Topiol, president of Christian Lacroix, remarked recently, the ultra-wealthy are seeking out ever more recherché indulgences. "Couture is very alive," he observed, "probably even more than 10 years ago."

Indeed, Le Figaro recently reported that sales were up 40 per cent at Lacroix and 30 per cent at Givenchy; since 2006, production at Chanel has apparently risen by 20 per cent. For years, couture's demise has been predicted, with cynics dismissing its biannual shows as the self-indulgent parading of fashion's famous egos.

Couture may be sold at a price, but it is made at a price, too. Its exquisite craftsmanship must be conducted in accordance with such Byzantine regulation as only the French can muster. The number of fittings, employees and outfits per collection are all regulated by the Chambre de Commerce et d'Industrie de Paris. Consequently, only a handful of houses can afford to meet these requirements - including Chanel, Dior, Gaultier, Givenchy and Lacroix, with Valentino, Armani and Elie Saab as foreign members - where once there were more than 30. In its postwar heyday, haute couture employed 46,000; today there are a mere 4,500 such artisans.

And yet couture's clutch of true believers, currently about 200 of the world's wealthiest women, seems to be growing. They signal their status by deeming it good value to commission day dresses for £12,000 and evening pieces for £100,000……

Couture may have disappeared from the street, but it is still to be witnessed on the helipad. And while the mass market buttons its coat against the chill bite of recession, for the ultra-moneyed life will continue to be ornamented by this most dazzling form of obsessionalism.

As Kroell rhapsodises: "What I've come to notice is that couture is appreciated by everyone, and the result never leaves people untouched. There is an aura to couture that creates dreams, astonishment and marvel."

http://tinyurl.com/2juaqs

Tonight BBC television news reported Indian investors protesting outside the financial market because it went down. (This is from the market drop on Tuesday)

Headline: Indian investors despair as shares fall

"It doesn't make sense for markets to fall so much," one investor said as he looked up at the flashing red arrows.

"We are the worst affected out of all the regional markets, but we were performing the best before this. It just doesn't make sense. “

Found this link on their news web site.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7202045.stm

Bill, I gotta say, when i first opened that link to Richard Wilsons blog I was taken aback. Him and I look so similar we could be brothers! I gotta dig through my photo's to find one to share. It's eerie...

As for the Indian investor: "why'd we fall so much after we rose the most?" Um... seriously?

Happy to be mostly cash going into this weekend and took a few small positions yesterday and today. Gotta say making the decision to buy is almost as nerve racking as watching holdings plunge (but not quite :)

Is Google dropping 1 or 2% afterhours really that big a deal? I thought afterhours action is on such thin volume it needs to be taken with grain of salt, no? Thought I've seen big AH moves vaporize on the open before...

I some times wonder how the "un-sophisticated" investors of the emerging nations will react when huge chunks of the savings are wiped out - rioting in the streets perhaps?

hi bill,

this is what cxoadvisory.com says about you: "Bill Cara's fairly persistent belief in a pending bear market decline has resulted in poor stock market forecasting accuracy since the beginning of 2005". See
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Cara/

how do you see your stock market forecasting accuracy?

Re index impact of stocks and Bill's Google-hammering point yesterday,

I think that the short hedgies who feel they got duped yesterday now *have* to focus on the few big names that can take the indexes down.

- INTC's huge drop the last 2 weeks helped a lot in reaching/tearing support on all Dow-30,SP-500 and Nasdaq-100;

- AAPL getting hammered has the same effect on SP-500 and Nasdaq-100.

- Ditto GOOG, CSCO and their kin.

- Dow's resurrection yesterday was largely on the back of a HD short-squeeze, shooting up 7 or 8%, until buying (or short covering) built up in others, too.

Of course we have been witnessing the same thing in reverse, on the way up, all these months.

As 2nd mentioned, the shorts are pushing their luck, and my take is that the stocks with the largest index 'signature' will be the main pressure points.

Fade after fade after fade, this week is great education, here and onscreen.

Best of luck to all today.

Tyrone - "Better than most" is a good simple answer but you have missed the whole concept of this site. Either stay around and learn what it is all about, or just move on. 8^).

Tyrone,

Take no offense, but your question to Bill sounds suspiciously close to trolling. Let's put this cxoadvisory or whatever thing aside... there are more constructive issues to discuss here. If you have some relevant point, please make it. Otherwise, I'd suggest that you read the past blog entries and draw the conclusions yourself.

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Since I have been travelling using my laptop I have noticed it is harder to get onto your site due to TypeKey mishaps.

So far I have to bow out of PDAC due to numerous reasons, but mainly an injury to my shoulder that I need to fix as soon as I return to Hawaii! It is very disappoitning for me as I look forward to meeting the Caraistas.

Tyrone ... Welcome! You obviously have not been here long and cxo completely misses the more complex monetary issues that lurk behind the CNBC and MAD MONEY and Bernanke spin. Try measuring the US markets in gold or Euro terms and not US Dollar terms. If you do that you would see a vastly different BIG PICTURE that would make anyone calling the US markets a "bull" look like kindergarteners! There's a store you need to start shopping at ... CLUES-R-US!! Really please ... prices are one thing but we here at this site are more interested in THE BIG PICTURE and something other sites rarely mention ... THE TRUTH! Think outside their bun for a change and let go of the bull and bear thing. Its all in the eye of the beholder! Start getting educated more on the paper fiat stuff you get if you make a profit not to mention what you have been wasting your time voting for! Best Regards ...

Expecting the market to fall and actually investing money based upon those beliefs are two totally separate things, Tyrone. Most of the regulars here know that and invest accordingly. You can be "wrong" and still make money. Also, do a search for Paulson's Pride on this site. Forget what CXO's guru page has, read the archives of this page to get the real info on BC's market calls.

Calling the market right at the right time is incredibly difficult. If you make a bearish call, you are very likely to be wrong since the market goes up most of the time. That does not make you wrong about the problems that the market has. It just makes you early. Return OF capital is more important that return ON capital.

That said, CXO has some good research stuff and is very informative...but the guru page is not helpful. Otherwise, you can follow Luskin's advice (Gold 450, anyone?)

Expecting the market to fall and actually investing money based upon those beliefs are two totally separate things, Tyrone. Most of the regulars here know that and invest accordingly. You can be "wrong" and still make money. Also, do a search for Paulson's Pride on this site. Forget what CXO's guru page has, read the archives of this page to get the real info on BC's market calls.

Calling the market right at the right time is incredibly difficult. If you make a bearish call, you are very likely to be wrong since the market goes up most of the time. That does not make you wrong about the problems that the market has. It just makes you early. Return OF capital is more important that return ON capital.

That said, CXO has some good research stuff and is very informative...but the guru page is not helpful. Otherwise, you can follow Luskin's advice (Gold 450, anyone?)

don't know if prieur is going to post this here, but it is a good list of ideas for the year ahead (from Don Coxe)

apologies for not using tinyurl, it is blocked at work.

http://investmentpostcards.wordpress.com/2008/01/23/the-year-of-the-rat-how-to-invest/