Black Cygnet arrives...

Included are volatility bands coming in and some DeMark TD Absolutes (tm)...verify independently...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/01/black-cygnet-arrives.html

Bill,

I appreciate the heads up and watch list. I'm sure you will be proven right yet again. It reminds me of your analysis and call during the August panic.

back at the Hotel Cara, where the trading is 24/7 and you can never leave...

i can see they're struggling to keep it green in europe- they'll need to keep it down until ben speaks...what kind of theatre would it be to jump the gun...

We wish to remind viewers that these sessions are automatically streamed to you via Skype. Receive them in the comfort of your desk or phone. You can join at http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

Bill: Thanks for the time you are putting in during these volatile market moves. I am reminded Michael Douglas playing the Gordon Gekko character in the movie "Wall Street" where he's on the beach in the early dawn, telling his young protege "Money never sleeps, Pal!"

Have been trading the e-mini futures on gold (YG) and the DOW index (YM) with moderate success in the overnight sessions.

Maybe DJ futures are up compared with Monday but down big compared with last Friday.

The ZD.H08.E (DJIA) CBOT values from INO: 11650 @ 6:50 AM, the DJIA future on Bloomberg is 11,649 @ 6:47 AM.

INO lists it as a gain of 58 pts,
Blmbrg lists as a loss of 457 pts.

As Steve said, I guess they have different inital points of reference.

Another place for live futures on the minis

http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,432,00.html

Good Morning and best of luck to everyone.
Stick with your charts, RSI and buy alerts and kryptonite can't harm you.

2nd, check your mail if you haven't yet.

Oz pilgrims, Colin Twiggs has a new report out this AM on gold and currencies.
http://tinyurl.com/7fw5r

Has anyone noticed the BIG SALE at the Wall Street stores? LOL!

They're offering major discounts on all my favorite products!
Where else do thay scare the crap out of you when they throw a big clearance sale? Isn't it crazy?

Oh, wait, have to watch Henry talk about the sale.

Anyone hear...

Paulson Speaking @ 8:00....

So many up SOO early...Wonder who could not sleep...

Thank you Bill...Covering my shorts and will wait to reload.

2nd_Ave...Glad to hear you are taking a longer term view of the market. Maybe now I will be able to keep up with you...Always appreciate your comments

craig- pre-market is open->7-8% moves in most of the ultras, almost twice that in some of the emerging market ultras...

FXI- looks a little stretched->picking up a little at 134.85 (shorting FXP more your style and may give you more bang..)

Hi Bill,

What do you think banks will do if they need to shore up reserves? Will they be more interested in having their traders out there on the floor or their risk management teams? Doesn't feel very staged to me... but I'm not a professional trader.

Gold doesn't feel too manipulated right now either... who will be buying gold when they're just trying to go to cash? Gold's going to be gapping down today. Will it go positive by the end of the day? Not sure that anyone needs to keep the price down.

Wasn't it DOW 8000 you were looking for?

Wile E. Coyote moment indeed. Did anyone get a chance to take a look at TSX 10 yesterday and see where the next levels of support are from a technical standpoint, and then take into account the current market irrational de-exuberance? I'm curious to know where people think the next levels are for the largest holdings that could move the emotional indexes.

So we'll get some serious panic selling today, then a bounce to cover shorts by HB&B - or an intervention bounce, then some more selling, then a smaller bounce... is that the way a bear market usually works?

Wasn't 1987 a computer glitch? This doesn't feel like a computer glitch. This is a user error - dumb users thinking they can be insured from losses in stock market speculations by paying a small (growing larger) percentage of the price. But this is not even with their own money, it's insurance against loans of loans.

I wonder how confused the quant trading systems will get today, or will people just turn them off?

Are the leveraged buyouts that were supposed to happen with record DOW highs still going to happen with these lows?

"Bank of America Corp, the second-largest U.S. bank, said on Tuesday fourth-quarter profit sank 95 percent, hurt by more than $7 billion of losses tied to poor trading decisions and mounting credit woes.
Net income for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company fell to $268 million, or 5 cents per share, from $5.26 billion, or $1.16, a year earlier.
Analysts' average forecast was a profit of 19 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
Bank of America shares fell $1.97, or 5.5 percent, to $34.00 in pre-market trading."

http://tinyurl.com/2qcbwx

That's not so bad... they still made money.

Maybe there will be a big range swing today... or maybe just a gap down and then flat. Does the US have to catch up with world markets before pumping any directional changes through?

bg- longer term can certainly work->sounds like you (and maybe BH also) finally cashed in the QID you opened last fall...(the FXP you picked up at 75 is about halfway to your target of 150 this morning)...

3/4 percent cut just announced

75 bp rate cut

WTH- my WTF list just lit up...

Bloomberg just mentioned that this rate cut could spark more panic selling. Hmm...

822- just 8 minutes early->it was a good beard day LOL

Let them panic sell...

I got some $$$$$$$$$ to put to work...

FXI- out at 141.50...

I stand corrected. Need to get one of those crystal balls lol.

Too bad. Wish they would have waited till after the market opened to see what bargains we could have gotten this AM.

Like I said yesterday, I bought 3 Canadian small caps yesterday and got good prices (unless there is an economic meltdown)). You have to start buying into this mess, because you're not going to pick the exact bottom and then put all your money to work on that day.

craig- new record, my man->5% in 19 minutes->it's too early, or i'd down one for ben LOL...

"Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today announced a fourth quarter 2007 net loss of $3,255.6 million, or a net loss of $31.85 on a per share basis. This compares to fourth quarter 2006 net income of $202.7 million, or net income per diluted share of $1.88."

http://tinyurl.com/38gbnm

Maybe the whole plan was to unlock these CDOs and credit swap insurance schemes by having companies default... and it backfired?

Bill,

Is your house in Canada for rent?

I gotta get out of the US..For some sanity...

I am willing to pay anyprice :^)

AMBAC is seeking a suitor after $3.26 billion loss:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoQISj8w4Z90&refer=home

BofA just had massive losses in the 4Q:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTiuQYFFgAo4&refer=home

craig- new record, my man->5% in 19 minutes->it's too early, or i'd down one for ben LOL...

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

ABX - to Outperform @ Credit Suisse
KSS - to Outperform @ Bernstein

Downgrade:

MBT - to Neutral @ Credit Suisse

-------------------------------------------------

Advice from Don Harrold:

"I think you should stand back unless you have a specific set of criteria around which to make a trade (see below). There is no reason to try to catch this market on the hope of a bounce today. This includes day traders. The only reason - and this is a departure for me - to trade today is if you find a stock you like for the long-term that's been beaten down badly.

What does "badly" mean? "Badly" means a stock that's got daily, weekly, and monthly stochastics oversold, AND, the stock is down for the day, AND, the stock is down on a percent basis MORE than the market as a whole.

If you can find stocks that meet those criteria, you've found stocks to buy. The caveat I place on any buys today is this: You should NOT expect today to be "the bottom". ANY buys you make on this decline MUST be seen as ENTRIES to SCALE INTO. If you try to trade today in hopes of making a quick buck, you may be sorely disappointed. ANY stock you buy today should be bought in share sizes NO LARGER than 1/4 of what you'd normally buy.

Yes, I believe there are entries that will open today. No, I will not make a call on what stock it will be in. You must use what I've tought you about momentum indicators to find your own way today. I'll tell you this, though: If you break the rules I've outlined above you will pay a severe penalty if your guess is wrong."

-------------------------------------------------

"Luck is the meeting of preparation and opportunity"

Have a great and profitable day.

"One member of the committee, William Poole of St. Louis Fed, voted against the move."

no kidding?

full link:

http://tinyurl.com/35ycff

Alright, it's breaking news that the rate cut went through. Everyone be happy for free money.

Now, back to business. I've delayed the account transfer to IB. I'm able to trade today. I'm not hoping to pull 2nd's 5% in 20 min, but where are the trading opportunities? Junior gold miners going up due to weak dollar pushing gold up? Double down on DOW puts? Short the financials?

What will be the tell that this temp rally is over?

Alright, it's breaking news that the rate cut went through. Everyone be happy for free money.

Now, back to business. I've delayed the account transfer to IB. I'm able to trade today. I'm not hoping to pull 2nd's 5% in 20 min, but where are the trading opportunities? Junior gold miners going up due to weak dollar pushing gold up? Double down on DOW puts? Short the financials?

What will be the tell that this temp rally is over?

DOW futures are falling back down a bit. They were only down by 200-250 just a moment ago. Now they are down buy 300.

down 375 now.

Quentusrex...

I think the tell will be margin calls that will go out today and need to be satisfied in how many days???

Bueller, Bueller....Never had this problem, but I believe it is THREE DAYS...

I vote for Bernanke as the dumbest Fed chairman ever. He could have averted this whole mess if he cut .50 a couple of weeks ago and calmed the markets. Instead, he waited too long and now has to cut .75 just to avert a worldwide crash.

premarket for SPY DIA IWM QQQQ are all trading down over 3% right now....GLD down over 1%, but at the same time I see the futures up....

If the exchange sends out the margin call you have 2 days. The brokers can give from two to five days for a margin call.

http://personal.fidelity.com/products/trading/Commissions_Margin_Rates/Margin_Borrowing_Margin_Calls.shtml.cvsr

Well.. something stands corrected... maybe not me... a rally and then back down eh?

Let's see where this goes... in the meantime how long does your book take to ship to Toronto, or should I wait and get a signed copy at the Cambridge show?

Anyone going to Financial Forum in Toronto this week?

http://tinyurl.com/3aysqf

So if people aren't buying the dips, what's next?

Alright, so what is the best trade here? Buy or sell as soon as the market opens? or wait for a bit to let the market determine which direction it'll go?

Bill,

I'm a regular reader of your weekly review and if time allows your daily as well. My apologies for not contributing to your community but building a small asset management firm takes a lot of my time.

My weekly saturday run let me pass this time by a small village which might make you smile which helps in those markets. My apologies for the bad quality but I took the pictures with my phone. I learnt that you are going to expand your activities into the Bahamas but haven't been aware of your set-up on the swiss-french border near Geneva.

Not to make you to proud as you can see this tiny village has max 10 houses but a perfect view into the Alps and the Montblanc (when weather is better). You will not find this place via Google Maps because of its small size but it exists!

Best regards and to you and all members of the community

p.s. i tried to send the pictures to Bill via email but not sure if it works and i have no idea how to bring them in here. Perhaps someone can help?!

Thomas

Alright, so what is the best trade here? Buy or sell as soon as the market opens? or wait for a bit to let the market determine which direction it'll go?

Dow futures down 425 from Friday now. That's almost 200 point drop from the peak after the rate cut was announced.

weak follow through

Thomas, you could put them up on www.flickr.com then post the link here.

Thomas you can post it on www.flickr.com and post the link here.

Typekey.... :(

I'm actually glad they did the rate cut. I sold most of my ultra shorts Friday. Now if they have this bulltrap setup right I'll get an opportunity to re-load and ride this puppy down some more.

Congratulations 2nd! Glad your back.

I bought some GFI premkt

Couldn't buy FXI or GLD as I didn't transfer to IB yet fearing what Quentusrex was experiencing.

Stuck with ST premkt...
Sooooo, can't buy GLD with an 85 handle premkt or FXI at 133. Am I pissed?
Just imagine....

More opprotunities later, but it would have been nice.

You got the posts, right?

is it possible the train just backed up for more passengers...

The text of the Fed statement announcing the emergency cut makes no mention of the crash in the markets yesterday. Who do they think they are fooling?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahMktVQB_Ays&refer=home

Craig, you can wire transfer your account from any broker to IB, and as long as the wire transfer goes through before 2pm, you'll be able to trade on IB the next business day. So, basically if you take an early afternoon you can trade the next day with IB. I canceled the account transfer, and I'll start the transfer over either this afternoon, or some afternoon between now and friday.

if memory serves, the call Bill made was DOW 9800, about a year or so ago. now i gotta go find some stuff to buy!

Dow futures (on www.ino.com) briefly went negative...hmmm, looks like this market is going down w/a rate cut.

Here is the link. Did it with flickr.com. hope it works.

Regards

The text of the Fed statement announcing the emergency cut makes no mention of the crash in the markets yesterday. Who do they think they are fooling?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahMktVQB_Ays&refer=home

http://www.flickr.com/photos/23066159@N02/

Bank Of Canada Cuts Benchmark Overnight Lending Rate To 4%

That market genius, Jim Cramer, was already on BubbleVision demanding even more rate cuts.......and there's the rub.

No matter how much you give them, the bulls can't be satisfied.

Beware.

craig- yes, thanks..

i don't think a fizzled rally is going to do it->J6P (on the west coast) isn't even up yet, and it's over? they'll need to call a few desks to start placing sizeable bids...if that doesn't work, then i would cut my losses and start from scratch...

man, this type key bouncer is working over every post today...

there are two (or more) sides to every story, but my take is that brokers took calls from a large number of nervous investors who wanted out on the announcement, and supply came on line in strength...the 'real' effect of the rate cut remains to be seen...

Gold will be over 1,000 soon
I heard 50 more BPs?

I expected the 75bp this AM

cardinal rules should in fact rule, right: sell strength, buy weakness->doing the opposite just isn't going to turn out well...

Zenob,
Absolutely, ride any rally, sell into strength and then reload ultras and shorts.

I won't be daytrading the next down leg.

.75bp cut won't put people back to work so they can feed and cloth their children.
Today there will be another announcement of a few thousand people getting laid off some where, this has been happening for way to long now. .75bp cut will help the HB&B, but do nothing for the working poor that do make up an economy.

Zenob- i like the fact that bill likes your thinking...;)

Bill,

We agree, silver will be better IMO as well.
SS

From Bubblevision:

"The bull is not dead, he's just bleeding..."
"We're off our lows"
"There is NO recession"

What bunch of pathetic pollyannas and corporate shills.

nasdaq down 117 points 5% on my streamer. Can that be right?

I'm glad I held my FXP position over the weekend. It's up 23%...

A rate cut in Japan seems a rather comic gesture.

BC Bouncing around even...

Take a look at the stocks Bill mentioned today

more apparent by the minute DB sellers not the only ones who got ripped off...

nice move on GFI, craig...

Zenob- i hope you sold it...

2nd Ave said "there are two (or more) sides to every story, but my take is that brokers took calls from a large number of nervous investors who wanted out on the announcement, and supply came on line in strength...the 'real' effect of the rate cut remains to be seen"...

I can verify this is correct. I am fielding calls from the least sophisticated requesting a hatchet job.

2nd Ave said "there are two (or more) sides to every story, but my take is that brokers took calls from a large number of nervous investors who wanted out on the announcement, and supply came on line in strength...the 'real' effect of the rate cut remains to be seen"...

I can verify this is correct. I am fielding calls from the least sophisticated requesting a hatchet job.

NOW BC AND bBBY ARE POSITIVE

BAC ALMOST POSITIVE>>>>

BAC almost even. Time to short ?

There was some discussion of margin calls earlier. Those using IB should be aware that IB liquidates holdings in real time (no 2 or 3 days) to satisfy margin deficiencies. See their website for details:

http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/marginRequirements/margin.php?ib_entity=llc

basketguy, you beat me to it!

The vix hit 37.57 which is in line with the panic of Aug 07.

Wow, a lot of people robbed blind in the first minutes of trading.

BAC (and UYG) just went green (and back)...

home depot and wal mart are positive. vote of condfidence for the us economy going forward?

Gold spot is ~$4 over the near futures price right now.

Robbed of my KRY & CC shares this morning... don't really care.

Still holding HGD...

I tried to sell it. There were too man sell orders and it just sat there unfilled until it was even again. I had to cancel the order.

watch for the probe lower....

Took a position in UYG this AM and am now out.
XLF reversed and is now falling.

BAC conference call not a help.

Took profits on GFI, look to reload if given the chance.

BRK/B halted as was GFI for a bit.

Scaled into PGH at 13.99. Please come back to me at $13!!!

Morpheus Trading has an article detailing their trading rules for gap opens. Good & useful.

http://morpheustrading.com/education_article_gaprules.htm

if the entire '06-'07 rally was paulson's pride (as bill puts it), then i think they try their best to close green...and if not today, certainly by thursday..how would you like to land in zurich on friday->striding and fiving with ben after single-handedly turning around the global melt-down, or->there is no other option, man...might even be a 'beard bet' at stake here...LOL

Considering that Pacific Rim markets are down ~14% in the last two trading sessions, today's rate cut is probably the best thing available to attract dollars into the U.S.

Considering that Pacific Rim markets are down ~14% in the last two trading sessions, today's rate cut is probably the best thing available to attract dollars into the U.S.

I know, it sounds completely absurd that a rate cut somehow attracts dollars.

that may be it for the probe->adding to UYG at 30.66...

Gold spot in positive territory making up for losses, still in backwardation this morning.

playing with fire 2nd?

Wow they are throwing the kitchen sink into this one.

Fido is having issues. I'm getting "order status unavailable" on my trades now. Don't know if my orders are going through or not.

My SKF order just went through. Took 5 minutes. This is crazy.

Brazilian (Cara 100) company discussed here before . . . ag play . . . opening position in PDA @ 39.40

UYG: out at 32.27

Zenob,

Any time volume spikes, Fido's web site gets overwhelmed. I have an account with them and after experiencing this problem twice last year, I chose to take my stock trading to ETrade, leaving just a few mutual funds with Fido.

They do have good customer service, although I do not understand why they will not fix this recurring problem.

If it wasn't for their monthly minimum, I would suggest IB.

Anyone else having issues trying to log on to their account at TD Ameritrade?

can't even log into TD Ameritrade....possibly system overoaded?

AdamG, TDAmeritrade is have web access issues for sure. Their strategyDesk app tho is working fine...

Another round of selling?

Re: CDE- I think it finally makes its move soon.
Silver hasnt even "spiked" yet and the insiders loaded up in the 3's and 4's so far.
The dilution has been as issue as well as poor management in the past, but nonetheless, I feel its overpessimistic analysis, and the day will come for this silver stock.
GL

/

This is the way I see it: Ben had no choice but to cut this morning. BofA earnings down 95%. Ambac earnings loss of $31.45 per share, and on the verge of bankruptcy. "They" could not wait until the Fed meeting next week. Paulson's speech was just the placeholder, so "They" could get everyone's attention. This had to be done in time for the market to shake it all out and settle down by this Friday. Next Monday, January 28th, two days before the Fed's Jan. 30th meeting, Junior has to be able to appear before the nation and say, "The state of our union is strong," and not get booed or laughed off the podium.

Re: CDE- I think it finally makes its move soon.
Silver hasnt even "spiked" yet and the insiders loaded up in the 3's and 4's so far.
The dilution has been as issue as well as poor management in the past, but nonetheless, I feel its overpessimistic analysis, and the day will come for this silver stock.
GL

Look at all the buying in XLF. It's crazy. It's like someone thinks that the rate cut is going to magically fix everything. I'm SOO going to load up on SKF today.

Zenob,

Thinking the same thing here. Time approaching to add to SKF. It's a lay-up, IMHO.

with online brokers like TD Ameritrade overloaded, so much for "nimble" traders.....sigh....

Buying more FNC.V. Yesterday, BMK.V came out with a lackluster drilling report which helped drive down all of the McFauld's Lake plays. Still waiting for Fancamp's first report.

with online brokers like TD Ameritrade overloaded, so much for "nimble" traders.....sigh....

Bill said: "If you look to the Cara Accumulation Zone and the Buy Alerts in the recent Daily Report tables, you will see the following:

Buy Alerts (with latest closing price): BC ($15.09), KSS ($40.00), BBBY ($27.05), JCP ($40.93), WAG($33.71), TM ($99.70), PAYX ($33.71), BDK ($65.75), BA ($78.40), DELL ($21.08), CTSH ($26.00), YHOO ($20.78) and WHR ($71.53)"

And Later: "look to those stocks who have a flat or reversible MACD"

And: "they will come through with more ratings upgrades. Watch for those this morning"

Looked at the charts, Bull Hunter Posted the upgrade and KSS up close to 9% from when I bought it. I looked at BAC and WB to look for the beginning of the move up.

You know sometimes it just all clicks - thanks Bill and Community!

watch for reversal after the indices fill the gap...like NOW...

"Considering that Pacific Rim markets are down ~14% in the last two trading sessions, today's rate cut is probably the best thing available to attract dollars into the U.S."

FranSix, do you mean in the sense of "sovereign wealth fund A gives cash infusion to Bank B?" That sort of thing? By the way, why do Middle Eastern countries want banks who's shares are plummeting and have unknown derivative losses? I'm not being facetious--I really want to know.

Fred: How's NOT.V looking? No real time...

Canadian carry-trade anyone?

"With the 75 basis point reduction by the Fed this morning, the Canada/US interest rate gap has gone from zero to plus 50 basis points. This positive Canada/U.S. interest rate gap will, in itself, put upward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Global Insight expects more reductions from the Fed than from the Bank of Canada going forward, further widening the Canada/US gap."

http://tinyurl.com/2uc78o

Will CAD go above par by next week?

Craig,

NOSOF in US BID 2.90 Ask 2.94 Close Friday 3.10

wavesmash- playing with fire indeed->flying blind with Fidelity right now (quotes are fine, but order status is hit or miss)...cutting back the daytrades, but can't complain->the market could be going the other way....

Herb Greenburg puts this morning's rate cut into perspective:

http://tinyurl.com/29edb2

Hi Denny, I'm anticipating a major shift in the flow of investment funds out of markets and into currencies. The fed cut seems to favour the long euro/short dollar trade - this should reverse course at some point with a long dollar/short euro trade.

Craig,
I got shut out of BillCara and couldn't get back in. NOT.V at 2.98 cdn. Bid 2.98 ask 3.00.

"Morpheus Trading has an article detailing their trading rules for gap opens. Good & useful."

I just went long EEM. Looking for a strong close here and rally overseas tomorrow. We should get a retest of the 200 ema (@~137), which is my profit target.

Tight stop, however, as the market is clearly unpredictable.

Sold my ZOLT shares for a slight gain. I had been sweating being long all weekend when I was short going into Friday.

After my trades settle I'll look for timing to go into double short ETF's again. Being long this market is just too damn scary. It appears I got lucky on this one.

I had been using SKF and SRS..any opinions on other double short high performers?

Had no problems with Scottrade this morning while I was watching and selling my ZOLT shares.

Thank you for the quotes guys.

I day traded this pop like a caffeinated monkey.
UYG has been very good to me this AM, a few times. Wish I had been paying closer attention when SKF was at 117, congrats on those that struck quickly.

I'm back to my opening positions and waiting for any op to add to short positions (which I should have been seeing with SKF....DUH).

If this is all .75 basis pts does then we're gonna get several more of these.

Why go all out when the rates will go lower?
As will the market...

Good morning!

My actions thus far today: scaled into SKF, sub 121. Waiting, watching in awe at volatility.

Financials will likely show further bleeding. I believe the future quarters of earnings releases will be full of writedowns, e.g. Citigroup still with a 37billion dollar exposure to CDO's.

Fortunate so far with online broker today.

Stu

JVS3

Today I made a monster killing with my FXP from last week. I planned to reload again in the future when the markets rallies up.

Here are some of the ETFs shorts I have had good success with... FXP,QID,SDS,RWM

Greenspan, in his book said that they were planning an 'insignificant' $100B relief package after 9/11. (from what I can recall, can't find the exact quote)

Apparently inflation puts that up to $150b today.

"I'll be glad to answer a few questions. QUESTION: Mr. President, can you achieve funding for the military and homeland security without dipping into the Social Security and Medicare accounts?

And, Chairman Greenspan, if I could...

BUSH: Well, wait. I promised him that he could come. He's an independent soul, he can have a press conference elsewhere. But one of the things we're not going to do is drag the chairman into a press conference, otherwise he won't come back to the White House.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

BUSH: Well, you can find him in his place of business.

Sorry to tell you how you do it. It's a new year.

(LAUGHTER)

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

BUSH: I plan to be much more assertive with the press.

(LAUGHTER) "

http://tinyurl.com/ytys8g

"BUSH: Well, first in terms of monetary policy, I'll leave that in the hands of our chairman, Chairman Greenspan. He's done a fabulous job in running the Federal Reserve, and for that America should be grateful. "

Indeed.

Thanks Isaiah. I have a couple days while trades settle to research those.

Fidelity seems to be executing market orders in a timely fashion, but reporting is delayed up to 13 minutes or so (at least in the case of my last order). It's disconcerting to not know where your money is.

So where's the revenge of the apocalypse nerds now?

craig- UYG- a (partial) sale finally went through at 33.37 on a 33.35 limit->of course, it was placed at 1118am EDT...LOL...(have another limit order at 33.80 placed even earlier that remains (apparently) unfilled...

Translation, go long FXI?

Bill

What's your gut feeling on Shanghai Fly's comments?

isaiah- congrats...so you were the one sleeping like a log monday night ;)

Ugh.
Left my long positions (INTC, EXPD, WCG calls) on with widened stops planning to ride things out and watch for entry points....so far not much fun today.

WCG stops have been activated on mild volume, but still working. Since it is in a intra-day consolidation pattern now, I am assuming that just after my sell order fills to maximize my loss it will start a parabolic move upward, LOL.

Bill, you're making me wish my FXP sell order had went through this morning...

2nd,
It's not the UYG trading desk....my orders clear immediately. And that's with ST!!!!

This morning I was getting delays galore. A bit scary, but I was buying.

If you look at the XLF 5 min/daily you can see exactly where I was in and out. Nice chart to trade on, well defined trends. Up with UYG and down with SKF.

I'm just waiting for it all to come to me again.
Sure wish I could have gotten into FXI at 133 premkt....

Looks like another shot coming for UYG, gotta go!

woot. Sell order on WCG filled...may look to jump back in at lower basis...

Ket etfs are in congestion zones, breadth is still 2:1 negative given the strong move. Waiting for a break of congestion zones, either way for a trade.

Believe prices will make a lower low than where it is right now..though may not test the low of the day.

IF so , and with afternoon strength...will reload LONG the last minute on AAPL, GS, CHL, FXI and EEM for 2-3 days tll price targets are hit..

Not shorting at these levels, and too much pressure on US markets to show leadership, better opportunities for shorts later.

craig- holiday worked in our favor this time->and yogi came through for us (again) in the clutch...how many times has hanging in there till the final play vindicated a trade->nothing beats throwing a hail mary after the crowd has started to thin out...and it really ain't over till it's over...

Citi analyst Craig A. Ellis expects just 1.2 percent U.S. GDP growth and sees unemployment reaching 6 percent in early 2009 amid a mild but prolonged recession.

"Ellis said the implications are clearly negative for finished-goods consumption and therefore for the chip market. Indeed, the more upbeat tone on global hardware end demand from original equipment manufacturers Apple, IBM and Seagate as well as component suppliers such as Intel, Linear Technology, Skyworks Solution and Xilinx this reporting season elevates risk that a more cautious tone could emerge as the year progresses."

could have just bought bill's entire buy list at the open->and be up 8% right now...who's to say where it will be thursday close...

time horizon stops going into the davos summit this weekend, right->too many pundits/no shortage of groupies...

Anybody calling a bottom here?

http://tinyurl.com/2gge6t

"Following Monday's torrid action in Asia and Europe, the loss of world equity value for 2008 to date is now put above $5 trillion."

http://tinyurl.com/yvaewr

Wavesmash,
"Anybody calling a bottom here."
Yahoo Finance Poll....66% say we're going deeper. FWIW

wow... spike back on HGD... been hovering between $10 & $10.50

We'll have to wait and see how market psychology takes hold in Asia-Pacific markets before deciding whether we are visited by 'The Big Kahuna' and assorted calamities.

2nd,
We should have been more confident in Ben rescuing friends and family.

We just happened to be standing in the right crowd! All around I'm much better than when we opened.

I'd like a couple more shots like we had at the open....and I think, unfortunately, they will come to us.

In the meantime just watching, waiting.
Oh, playing the financials, where the action is bound to be.

World Indexes page at INO.com have the Asia-Pacific indexes down, while all others are steady:

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?e=WORLD

Why there's probably a bigger train coming... from the previous article I posted.

"In Frankfurt this morning the cost of insuring against bond-default by European companies shot to new record highs, with credit default swaps on investment-grade debt rising 8% in price.

High-yield bonds became 6.4% more expensive to insure using CDS."

That seems like a lot. Wouldn't that cause bonds to sell off?

This is either the deal of the decade or something else.

I guess I'm looking for next couple of weeks. Don't think it's worth looking at macro picture this year.

wavesmash No wonder Buffett wants to get in that business.

UYG- scaling back in at 32.07...

Tried to order your book. Figured it would be a better investment than anything else today.

Fatal error: Call to a member function MoveNext() on a non-object in /u2/home/booksonb/public_html/estore/includes/modules/pages/pubs_product_book_info/main_template_vars.php on line 237

Looks like they need to implement friendly error handling.

Just not my day... :)

The large move down in the market averages since mid-October 2007 has removed some but not all of the price risk in this bear market. We are waiting for a number of the sentiment and technical indicators we follow to reach extreme readings to declare a more bullish tone to the market. And the only way to reach those extreme readings will be for the market to move further down. So, in the meantime we wait...

For those that missed our January 8th bear market call, you can visit our website at www.2globalmarkets.com for the full research report.

Bank of America's debt is under review by Moody's.

Traffic details for billcara.com:

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/billcara.com

3PM -4PM

Sell off...or...Rally?

Anyone want to stick out their neck and make a call?

isaiah- your turn, man ;)

Out of my FXP at 98.64. I'm still steamed that I couldn't get my fido order to execute this morning when it was 108. :-(

:^)

Can't ...the overseers will get up set with me again.

Zenob

Don't worry.... you and I are going to ride the FXP express train again very soon... let it pull back again...and this time you and I will buy a 1st class ticket Zenob!

Make the call! We don't have overseers, except one. As long as you are polite no one cares.

Several anecdotes from Minyanville today that credit issues are starting to affect small businesses, which is new since most previous news concerned the consumer.

Economically, it seems we have a ways to go before bottom.

Anyone think the PM juniors are going to rally convincingly now, especially if the Fed cuts again in a week?

Bill,

I think you'll be best served with Google Analytics (http://www.google.com/analytics). You just have to register and then insert a small amount of HTML code in the source code of the site.

Thanks,

Re: Alexa

Ok, BC, was just not aware.

F6

Pay very close attention to this last hour.The bulls need a firm last hour to regain some sort of momentum for the very short term. In October of 1987 it was the relentless downward price action of the last 90 minutes that caused a panic. No need to be a hero-keep tight stops on all bids and offers.

i'll try to explain how i attempt to game it, although these kinds of explanations fall short->think paulson/bernanke want it up (and they have influence), think the public wants it up, think longs who held on this morning definitely want it up...media is confused, but sound like they want it down, large number of vocal timers with audiences want it down, shorts want it down, and anyone who sold this morning wants it down...

it took cajones, but paulson/bernanke pulled it off->they mananged to reverse momentum (see bill's opening comments), and it will be hard to stop...

last hour will test bears' mettle, but difficult to see them standing firm in the face of a possible short-squeeze...if i were short, would be asking myself how much more i can expect than 8 down days capped by a spike down this morning->why hold overnight and risk an overseas relief rally?

JMHO

Long into the 3PM - 4PM close, will hold overnight as long as the DJIA doesn't fall below 11,880.

For the more experienced traders here, given the recent negative sentiment: How many times can an index safely bounce around narrow support & resistance levels as the Dow has done since this morning before the basement floor rots away? Or, put this way, does the chance of a positive breakout diminish the longer this bouncing continues? In addition to market breadth, (advances / decliners) what other indicators help in deciding?

Thanks.

JMHO

Posted by: 2nd_ave

A very good one at that. I'll look for the rally!

Actually, it looks like wavesmash's problem is with the http://www.booksonbiz.com/ site (I'm looking into it). But the billcara.com site was overloaded, so I disabled commenting for a while. If anyone had trouble posting a comment in the last 20 minutes, my apologies. I think I've worked around the problem now, so feel free to try now. We will be addressing the root issues here in the coming months, but until then there may be some temporary downtime.

also like the huge amount of skepticism/absence of hope->contrarian play is to climb the wall of worry...

I would say that if Asian markets continue to decline, then the market psychology will be the same in the west. The rate cuts in the U.S. alone might not be enough, imo, because rate cuts may be in order in the euro zone. One really strange effect was the rally in the Bovespa and the IPC. All of the BRIC countries should be experiencing the same rout as Asia.

But that would also require a sectoral comment on how bullion might perform, and whether gold miners are to remain stable with minimal losses. There would certainly be an inflow of capital into short term liquid investments, and out of the emerging markets story.

Still looking for a interim target high of ~$930.- for bullion.

Here comes the last hour rally.

anyone disagree with the idea that that gold has been voting on the rate cut all day? that's just how I'm looking at it, from a novice's point of view.

No matter...I'm watching financials and indices and plan to be flat trades excepting the few select longs I would add to on these dips.

I like the financial trade into the close, either up or down. I think the market follows.

Any thoughts on gold? Everybody's been so focused on the major market move today that gold has kind of gotten the back seat today. I'm still planning to start buying physical metal soon but I wanted to wait for as much of a pull back as I could get. With this emergency rate cut, is this going to put the breaks on gold's slide or does anybody think the CBs will attack and push it lower?

Current S&P level implies FXP retreat to 94.80 or so--not scientific, just eyeballing chart.