2nd

You got mail [special delivery]...

isaiah- firewalled at work...

craig- plan to use any reversal(s) to scale out of my (early) longs->LUV/WAG/JOF...FJPNX will need to wait till EOD (how did the fund industry get away with once daily redemptions, anyway), but no worries->based on pre-market indications, guessing i'll take a 2-3% hit on the port, which will indeed dent '08 performance but certainly does not cause it to veer off its double-digit course right now...

QID- what do you think? i sense some kind of reversal this morning with indexes in europe off the lows...damage in HK already reflected in yesterday's run up in FXP...

HBC- taking a look at bill's suggestion...

Craig

"Glad you stayed off the tracks RE FXP Isaiah!"

Late yesterday afternoon I could not access Scottrade. So I found myself stuck on the FXI Express [downwards?]. This is not going to be pretty.

craig- financials seem almost poised to rally this morning...

Bill,
Had the same idea yesterday at the close. I said to myself, "Self, the banks are getting slaughtered and JPM isn't Citibank....why don't you display your obvious trading genius by not only taking a position in the financials, but let's make it a double and short a few shares of the SKF." Apparently genius HATES company and I covered my sorry ass at a small loss at a more than lucky buy to cover in the premarket.

Also thought I was smarter than Mr. Market dipping my toe in GFI/SLW/WGW only to watch my toe get eaten. If you plan to paint the bottom, it helps to wait until you start to get close to the bottom. Sheer genius.

Oh yeah, so smart....

Just for perspective sakes, I sold my FXP yesterday and I'm MR. buy'em and hold'em. lol

Hopefully I didn't jump prematurely.

with true inflation in the double-digits, and costs of credit default swap insurance increasing dramatically, why would monopolistic Canadian banks accept a rate cut for a short-term stimulus of the economy?

Here's hoping HGD gives me an exit today or tomorrow... looks like there was some serious selling of margin calls after options expiry this month.

isaiah-

FXI->down only 2.5% pre-market...don't think you have a big problem...it should reverse to some extent this morning (and if you're lucky, maybe even make some money)...

needless to say, find yourself another broker...

This is indeed a weir...rrrrd morning. Even though the futures are soundly down, QID is trading in the pre-market right where it went out yesterday.

??????????????

LOL! Honestly 2nd, I can use all the help I can get. I think I need to put myself on a trading restriction ALA 2nd Ave. sometime back. I think I sat on my mojo.

I had the same feeling about the financials and felt a little better hearing JPM and WFC news which was my plan. It might be I was too early in and out. Just like all my other holdings it seems.
The blog will bear witness today.

Seamus: Thanks for the heads up on EGLE. Watched it to a 19 handle but in view of the overall environment and the Baltic Dry I resisted. That will probably mark the bottom.

I'll try and help really find the bottom today. If I'm forced to sell it almost always is at the bottom where I should have been a buyer.

Good Morning Punters.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrades:

DEO - to Overweight @ Lehman Bros.
SLW - to Sector Perform @ RBC

Price Target Lowered:

INTC - $33 to $29 @ Stifel Nicolaus
INTC - $29 to $24 @ Caris & Co.

Price Target Raised:

IBN - $62 to $87 @ Jefferies & Co.

-------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

QID-> ronbon, maybe the QID jumped the gun last night? QID closed up 7.17% yesterday, vs a QQQQ drop of 2.76%...this morning QQQQ set to open down 0.8%...multiply that by 2, and it accounts for the 1.65% outperformance in QID relative to QQQQ last night...

wavesmash- feeling better about HGD this morning? ;)

I definitely got caught in that mess... went long QID in the premarket looking at the futures and current QQQQ prices... forgetting that the price increase of QID was disproportionate last night! At a small loss right now.

Thanks, 2nd; good explanation. And I'm with you, Fazeli; should resolve itself soon...hopefully.

we may just rally out of the gate...in which case, chalk up another one for 'discipline over conviction'...

Bond insurer Ambac Financial (ABK) will cut dividend by 66%, raise $1B. Stock down 20% in PM. Sayonara to CEO.

This going to piss me off.

Discipline. That's the missing ingredient.

Let's count now...
Call AAPL don't short it.
Call financials and panic out early because Asia/Europe sell off.

Maybe I should lay off the coffee.

Anyone trying to play the contrarian on the financials has been getting their butt handed to them.

That said, JPM might cheer market because they reported a mere $1.3B writedown. Yipee!

the trading landscape's looking complicated, so my plan for the day will be simple->if it goes up big, plan is to reopen the shorts...if it goes down big, plan is go long...

I'm guessing we get a drop at the open followed by a rally attempt. Here's my thinking:

The P&F chart of the SPX shows longterm support at 1380. I don't think the market will be allowed to fall through this longterm support line just yet. All the alarmist headlines in the financial media are just theatre in preparation for a scripted rescue by the administration to be dramatically unveiled at the next State of the Union address on Jan 30, coincidentially timed with the FOMC meeting. The FED knows that a 50 point rate cut alone won't keep the bull alive, but a massive FDR-style package of tax-cuts might, with the added benefit of rescuing the Republicans and GW's legacy.

The short-term smart money may be on top of this, as signaled by this comment: "Big buying in XLF Jan 28 calls today ~130,000 traded, which is just about the entire open interest." Posted by: moab at January 14, 2008 1:14 PM

The SPX closed yesterday at 1380 on the nose. I could be very close to being proven wrong if it falls significantly lower today.

Yep, I should have held the FXP overnight. Oh well.

Craig,
I think you and I trade the same lately. If I would just learn to do the opposite of what I think I should do I'd be up 500% but instead I just feel like I'm in the ring with Mohammed Ali.

For example, A couple of weeks ago I was holding some June QQQ puts. I made 20% in three days and sold thinking I was such a genius. I took that money and bought Feb QQQ calls thinking we were at the bottom. Boy was I wrong!! Now I'm under water huge. If I would have kept the June puts I'd be up at least 500% now!!! Hopefully I'll start getting this right before I run out of money.

Rob.

Why are QID and the QQQQ both down? Aren't they opposites of each other?

Rob.

Rob,

I think QID is down from people taking profits. Lot of red volume on my chart.

Re: QID

2nd_ave has a post above that explains the action.

WAG/LUV- out at 33.25/12.08...
QID- in at 45.55
FXI- isaiah- why not take it here?

Rob..

From A chart perspective on QID...

Bumping its head on downward trendline from Aug ust spike...That trendline is just under 46.00 and a close above that level would be very bullish for QID...

We may need a little more ammo to make the push

Alright, aside from jumping out of my SKF short like a scalded chimp, it seems my spidey sense was alright and my feeble little brain was overcome with fear at the sight of all that red in Asia and Europe. These can be great indicators but from now on I'm waiting for the open to tell me what is really going on.

That SKF short would have done exactly what I planned. It takes discipline to stick to the plan in the face of substantial losses.

2nd.....

Think I should dump FXI? Don't think it will rally any today?

Two small additions:

Price Target Lowered:

INTC - $32 to $29 @ UBS
INTC - $30 to $27 @ AmTech Research

2nd: awesome QID trade... huge gains here from your entry.

isaiah- why not take the hit on FXI and free your mind to focus on more profitable trades?
taking hits myself right now on JOF/TM...another time...only remaining long is FJPNX->hands are tied until EOD...
HGD.TO- thinking about adding...

Sold FXI

OUCH!

Or better put.....

"Oooooooooooo The Humanity!"

don't worry, man->the pain goes away fast...especially when you start looking at FXI in the 140s...

wavesmash- slow start on HGD, but it's taking off now...added more at 9.83 (USD)...

French_canuck -

My take is that fear and margin calls are overcoming the jawboning of a potential stimulus package or rate cuts.

This weekend is a three day weekend in the US. If we continue to fall tomorrow and Friday, small investors will have three days to mull over the losses. There could be some big selling on Tuesday.

Anyone playing options today? After so many down days, seems like a good time to grab companies you'd want to own.

I've played some SBUX mid and long term 12.5s and 15s, SNDK 22.5s, HBC 60 and 65, and INTC 12.5s!

QID- another blogger noting that QID broke out of short term pennant and watch for it to come back to upper support line which I estimate to be 44.50. If it does and that holds feel good about adding more.

I haven't done the analysis myseld just noting something I read five mintues ago.

Fazeli -I have PCU put options..me likey today.

Barrick Gold (ABX) is Zack's Bull of the Day.

Research report here (pdf):

http://tinyurl.com/26c3j9

Seems like a good day for PUTs... some of my more aggressive prices just got hit with the quick breakdown of the NASDAQ.

fazeli- thank you...glad to see it's turned green for you also...

wavesmash- i don't usually chase strength, but adding again to HGD here at 10.01 USD...if gold is in fact the last dance, let's pull out the stops and enjoy the hell out of it...

GDX and XGD starting to crack...hoping to hear from moneygenie...

RTH up 1%, good for puts too.

INTC being crushed. Guess you can't eat computer chips after all. :^)

Sold my Jan 90 XOM put and sold a small porion of my DUG when XOM was at around 87. I think it still goes lower but re-adjusting part of my position to look for a higher short entry. Will be looking at Feb 85 puts if XOM can bounce back a couple dollars on a short covering rally.

Agree puts the way to go.

However, bought some speculative 17.50 Feb calls on DAL . . . thinking merger may be announced by then . . . looking at the 15 strike also . . .

$SPX 1370...the line in the sand

Minyanville has an article that points out that Intel's CEO said eight days ago that there is no sign of a global slowdown. So when they came out with a conservative forecast the market punished them severely.

SBUX just announced a deal with Pepsi to sell a new product. Don't have the details or a link yet...

Seamus,
I played the Airline thing a bit differently...bouncing between DAL and NWA (most likely target, given the mgmt players involved) so as to avoid "pattern day trading" rule.

First I went into DAL, got that bounce, stopped out and jumped into NWA. Got yesterday's bounce and looking for a good point to go back into DAL. So far, so good!

Good luck!

er, meant to say got yesterday's NWA bounce and stopped out this morning

craig- who would have guessed the open was a last boarding call? enjoyed the ride on QID, but out for now at 47.62...will be looking to re-enter...

Hey 2nd,

My GDX puts are Mar.49, so am watching. Thanks for caring. Hope you're doing well too.

Does anyone recall if Bill gave a downside limit for XOM?? I'm holding Apr. puts and being tempted to sell today..... but can use advise on holding if that would be more prudent???

TIA

Solar stocks are getting crushed like none other lately. Most are down over 12% today.

Either a large number of funds are liquidating or this is very aggressive attack by short sellers. In any case, it's bloody.

I'm getting stung on my ESLR. And here I had it hedged fairly well ... or so I thought.

HGD-> partial sales at 10.28 USD...

Thank you 2nd, I'm out also.
Ditto on SDS. Just moments ago.
Also made a few $ on FXP, but missed the big run. Where did I buy that? $67. Grrrrr.

WAY underwater on WGW and sold half TM which is still smarting.

Keep the posts coming, apparently I need a hand holder!

Seamus: Get a load of the 18 handle for EGLE.
52 wk low is $17.23

Solar stocks are so far overvalued that they rival tech stocks at the peak. Forward P/E for FSLR is near 100, with PEG above 3. Throw in lower oil prices and these are ridiculously valued.

Gold is collapsing in the last half hour.

Hopefully my 45June puts on Newmont Mines will start gaining soon too.

Rob.

Wall Street darling MON getting crushed on no news that I can find. This doesn't bode well for the market, IMHO.

Craig

I held a bunch of FXP on the 9th @73.26
Then sold it for chump change the same day.

So as "Slick Willie" would say..."I feel your pain"

Licking my wounds today ..

QID- take two at 47.03...

What's going on with currencies?
Franc and Yen taken to the woodshed....gold smacked around. Where's Ben and Paulson?

Shall we issue an APB?

Commodities are getting dumped now too. The yield on the 10 Year treasury is down 1.11% so that's likely where the money is going. I feel like the whole thing is ready to fall over a huge cliff any time now.

Rob.

Isaiah,
You and I had the same trade on FXP and we both took chump change. Oh well.

MON explains the cratering in MOO at any rate.

Craig........

My pain is great.... I held a 1000 shares..that would of been 24 grand in 7 days. Now that SUCKS!

From LT perspective, I would be thrilled and buy as much as I can if S&P down to 1150 and Nasdaq down to 2000.

I doubt it will go that far. If we look at the corporate cash on balance sheet and the price to free cash flow ratio, current price level certainly is cheap. Even if the forward earning and cash flow are cut to half, if one normalizes the earning level, another 10% down will give a fantastic entry point, I would argue (just my opinion).

Looks to me like HB&B is transferring money from certain sectors into financials and techs in an effort to plug the dike.

Oh, I'm sorry. My pain was a ***very*** small profit on a small holding, but it could have been a bigger small profit!

BH -
When it comes to Intel (and to some degree AMD) I am actually looking for an entry point. May write puts at 15 or 17.5. Yes we can't eat chips yet but based on my assumption (possibly wrong) that China middle class will survive this turmoil there will be steady and possibly growing demand at least for the lower end chips.

Moreover philosophically speaking this is one of the very few products a post-industrial society like US can still sell to industrializing Asian countries without excessive fear of stolen IP (well at least for few more years LOL).

Financials are up a few percent. Seems like a rotation from tech to financials.

isaiah- i hear you...but compared to, say, losing 24 grand in 7 days...move on to the next trade, which is just around the corner...

Cara 100 BA gets the sell call @ AmTech Research.

re BA, I thought Bills comments were a sell call, regardless of the RSI app
any thoughts on MU?
peace
Gray

Re: Gold

Chart suggests short- to intermediate-term "tweezer top" like the one in November that kicked off the consolidation. Ugly candles in GDX were a tell:

http://tinyurl.com/yu68v7

Look at the US dollar go! Already surpassed the target of what looks like a tiny inverse head and shoulders on the intraday chart:

http://tinyurl.com/2c7wff

Wow, the VIX is unchanged today and only at 23 and change. Anybody have any ideas why?

I thought the VIX level was unusual too, moab.

There are lots of strange indicators on my screens today making me think that something big is about to happen, or then again, maybe it's just the machinations of a bear market?

Two days ago I sold DIG at a small profit @104.15
today low was 88.68....

What a plunge....

Today's action in the stock market is nothing compared to Commodities. Everything is off by 1.5-4% except livestock and Natural Gas.

I wonder if this is signs of massive margin calls or just s short-term top in commodities.

I don't remember seeing a day recently where commodities dropped this much.

Rob.

QID- should have played it like bob 'one take' dylan...keeping it on as a hedge against FJPNX for now->should (hopefully) cancel eachother out...

Isaiah64.4,
Good thing you got rid of that when you did!!!

Rob.

Is this morning a bounce? Short squeeze? Reversal? I just noticed that my puts have gotten much less profitable in the last half hour.

At the close yesterday bought ag play ANDE @ 45.70 which hasn't had quite the move of others in the ag sector and has a lower P/E. Not my favorite overall, but showing some strength today while others decline.

See Zacks added it to the buy list, but I wouldn't use that as an indicator. Do your own DD.

Finger Lakes,

Dollar squeeze hitting most currencies, too. Aussie, loonie, euro, kiwi, swissie down big. Even the yen is weakening, although sterling is holding up for some reason.

No inter-meeting rate cut? ;^)

Well what does the list think?

Are financials going higher or is this a ST push?

Should we be thinking of buying financials or shorting/ultras? Or is this HB&B moving their furniture out?

Goldman Analyst Anthony Noto To Become CFO Of NFL

Last update: 1/16/2008 10:21:04 AM (Dow Jones NewswiresJanuary 16, 2008 10:21 ET (15:21 GMT)

Bill,
Is there anywhere we can see which calls or puts the public are buying? How do you tell which ones the public are buying and which ones HB&B are buying.

That would be some serious information so we could trade against the public just like HB&B.

Thanks for the awesome blog!!
Rob.

Finger -- Look here:
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm

Hello anyone, everyone,

Re: The Shanghai Fly,

He showed me a chart of the average PE of the Shanghai Composite. Incredibly, it peaked at over 70 in October. That market has a long way to fall.

Posted by: Bill Cara at January 16, 2008 12:23 PM

Ultra shorts ?? Which one? When?

TIA

Just when you thought it was the end of easy credit. Introducing 401K debit cards!!

http://tinyurl.com/3yvxfy

My favorite line:

This is a tool," he says. "Just like a hammer can be used to build a house or smash your finger, you really have to trust folks that they're using this hammer' to build their retirement savings, not to smash it."

How funny is that?

Rob.

HGD-> adding back at 9.82 USD
FXP->isaiah, thinking about it...

OldGoat,
Thanks alot. That link looks like it has some great information.

I'll report anything interesting I decipher.

Rob.

Sold Apr 90 puts on MON.

FXP-> in at 91.95...a little late, probably

QID- adding at 46.21...

Bought HNU.to (Natural gas 2X ETF) today, ahead of inventories tomorrow. You can play the other way around with HND.to

ETF for 2x oil up: HOU.to
ETF for 2x oil down: HOD.to

Also got a tiny amount of Quebecor World IQW.TO for .22, already up 20% (pure speculation).

2nd, Scaling into FXP. Piquito.

MoneyGENIE: Look at FXI..mostly NYSE ADRs and H-shares on Hong Kong Exchange..you may also want to check out shorting CAF, if its available to short, thats Morgan STanleys closed end fund that tracks the A shares in Shanghai and Shenzen.

Just remember FXi trades during our hours and in europe...as its an index....thus FXP...as well

Hi,

Options expiration is around the corner.

Short interest is significant.

What would you do if you were a market maker?

Cheers,

CAF is trading at a 30% discount to NAV. Be careful shorting that.

MNTA up 8% on no news.

$7.50 strike options expire Friday. This stock moved up in a similar manner for last months $7.50 options.

Disclosure: Long MNTA common stock.

After watching my profits erode in WGW yesterday, I sold out at about 1.50 profit. I realized the down move was because we really are going to have a slow down, and it is not going to be rescued by an inflationary bump from the fed. (Not that rates won't decline) Point is: commodities, fuel, gold, etc. are reflecting less demand. It's that simple. There will of course be bounce backs in all products. I enjoy the day trade chatter here and hope that my long term outlook is of some mutually beneficial help. Sometimes I can see the forest through your trees. Bill's weekly t'bill chart, (major rounding top), really told me all I needed to know. Direction is down, patience will provide profits.

Posted by Bill Cara on December 29, 2005 06:27:12 AM

December 29, 2005

Shanghai stocks to fly says the Fly, Thurs., Dec. 29, 2005, 6:30 AM

The Shanghai Index perked up today (+1.11 pct) to 1169.86. Shanghai Fly advises that local trader sentiment has turned bullish and that he expects to see a bullish run here (about +4.5 pct) to about 1223, which is the cycle high reached in September. I am in agreement on this one.

The way to play it is via the two China ETF's FXI and PGJ.

http://tinyurl.com/28eqmb

My friends I found this doing a search.. I aim to reverse game plan but would really appreciate any discuss RE. timing. TIA

Thanks EEMTRADER

XLF: All indicators pointing south. rsi 44, stoch down, macd down, williams %R down, money flow rolling over, vol down.

LOL. so much for THAT....re: XLF.

HB&B is clearly out to get me!

FXI/FXP- in that case, i'm out of FXP...

Me too at 93+/-

Lots of messages today, especially after missing past few hours. I am not following the FXP/FXI dialogue here. Why is everyone closing out FXP if China might fall?

I am missing something....why is Bill's 2005 post driving the warriors out of FXP??

As I watch this go up and down, but basically sideways I start to wonder if this is another monday? Is this traders just not knowing which way things should go, or is this HB&B propping the market before another blow? Or is this just a squeeze into options expiring?

It seems like we're putting in a short-term bottom.

Or we're just coasting until the next wave down.

The put/call ratio was at 1.05 yesterday. The last time it was that high was the August lows.

Rob.

Talk about moves in a sea of liquidity. Just looked at the BIDU chart.

Jan '08 high, this month, is 397.70; it hit 288.23 this morning but has bounced back up to @ 300.

No position.

Also, what economic news would this market be waiting to hear? Where is the market placing it's hope, and where is it's fear?

Rob,

That ratio is especially relevant if you consider options expiration is Friday.

What would you do if you were a market maker?

Also, what economic news would this market be waiting to hear? Where is the market placing it's hope, and where is it's fear?

Can someone from HB&B 'splain this to me?

XLF all pointing down except money flow.
How do they do that?

Now it looks to go negative, BUT that just means they would rally it on me. LOL!

FXI/FXP: Geckojb....trading in wait of a real pullback to enter. right now FXP is in the middle of the intraday and frankly could aid or kill you and we don't know which ST.

If WE bounced (or at least stopped gushing money like a broken water main) on Asia and Europe, what could China do overnight on NO positive news? Enough to seriously injure me if I'm careless.

Using Fidelity, 3-minute MACD(24,48,9) does a nice job of indicating good intra-day buy/sell points on all the major indices and their respective long/short ETFs. Timing is not quite as good as 2nd's, but it's close, and close enough (at least for me).

For SDS today:
10:09 Long @ 61.23
11:12 Short @ 61.55
01:00 Long @ 60.85
Now 61.16

Note: I did not take all of the above trades, but an currently long SDS.

Jaketh, yes that was my confusion too. One minute I see China chart to be downhill ski slope the next a 2005 blurb by Bill saying China to rocket and next everyone running out of FXP. Just want to make sure I am on page here.

FXP/FXI-> (LOL)->i have so little time to read the posts carefully at work i didn't notice the date the shanghai fly repost (12/29)...sorry for the confusion...

but hey, it worked out->back in FXP at a lower basis (LOL)...

2nd,
Bill can even help from out of the past......

Macromatics,
I would rally the indexes hard and make all the puts expire worthless.

That's if HB&B bought calls and sold puts this month.

What if HB&B bought puts and sold calls instead. Then they would want it to keep tanking.

Does that make sense?

Rob.

Anybody else's Scottrade screen reporting in Chinese? An omen? Takeover??

INTC Call 15 LEAPS for Jan 2010 trading at 6.90. Since the stock is trading at 20, the cost is $1.90. In other words, you make a profit if INTC trades above $21.90 by Jan 2010, with possibility of big leverage.

TD Waterhouse's voice response system...

Press 1 for mandarin, 2 for cantonese, 3 for english.

They have their high value customers in order.

My apologies guys....

I should have posted this,

"My friends I found this doing a search.. I aim to reverse game plan but would really appreciate any discuss RE. timing. TIA"

at the top instead of bottom. Guess no one reads the complete posts in the rush. Sorry.

SiO2, and Feb 08 $20 call is bid at $.86. This would drop the cost significantly if you bought the leaps, and sold the Feb's. This would nearly half the cost of the leaps.

Jaketh....

ScottTrade account fortelling the future....

I meant the cost of the premium, not the total cost.

i love how some people suggest gold is down because crude oil is off its highs, yet a minute later suggest mining costs are high due to energy costs... even if costs are less w/ cheaper oil,
if cheap oil means cheap gold along with it then is there a net benefit?

Looks like PPT got started a minute early....

Bill's post reference Hong Kong Shanghai info from the "Fly" . . .

"That market has a long way to fall."
Posted by: Bill Cara at January 16, 2008 12:23 PM

FXP->adding (cautiously) at 90.60...

Follow up to earlier post re MACD and SDS
Shorted at 60.81 (small loss from 60.85)
Covered @ 60.08 (too soon and MACD has not crossed back up, but wanted to book profit & perhaps reload on a bounce)

Q, good point. Selling 20s is a little dangerous though, is it not?

SiO2 / Quent:
Sorry for the beginner question...why do you call the Jan 2010 15 calls "leaps"??

isaiah- i'm clearing the shorts, going long FXI/QLD, and hope to take FJPNX off the table at the close in the green...how's that for changing my mind ;)

Too soon...Always too soon...waaaay too soon.....SDS now 59.70....#$%@&*!

2nd -- You really are the BOS-man! My primitive little charting technique is telling me "wait!" on FXP.

FXI and EEM....making a beeline to clear its 200dma...if it clears that 200dma and closes higher than the open...a nice green hammer formation at support...otherwise......

IMF today claims some of the subprime players haven't come clean yet, and the problem may be worse than anticipated. They must have finally started reading Bill's blog because everyone here already knew that.

reenzo - LEAP, which stands for Long-term Equity Appreciation, is an option that expires in 18 months or more.

OG- you could in fact be right...i'm changing my mind more today than any time in recent memory->traps both ways...;)

EEMTRADER

"a nice green hammer formation at support...otherwise......"

Could you translate that to me in english EEMTRADER!
:^)

2nd
Been to hell and back....will update you later.

2nd, Isaiah, Well let's confuse the issue.

Scaling into SKF near the intraday low.
Holding small bite of FXP, currently UW but reversing.

Seamus: bought 200 EGLE. Now up.

right now it looks like you're right...i should just clear the table and walk away before i confuse the hell out of everyone->out and done for now...FJPNX will be off by EOD also...

thx, OG!

heheh, I guess LEAP just sounded better to the acronymicist (I just made that up) that came up with that...as opposed to L-TEA

moab - Feel free to ignore this remark....

Today I had several suboptimal entries, which brought to mind Jess Livermore's thoughts on "beginning right" and "sitting tight":

"I have always found it profitable to study my mistakes. Thus I eventually discovered that it was all very well not to lose your bear position in a bear market, but that at all times the tape should be read to determine the propitiousness of the time for operating. If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight."

Isiah..thats a bullish candlestick formation on the 200dma...it hasnt crossed the 200 dma though..just fell back..but so did the market..maybe mustering another attack....maybe not...good place for a low risk high reward trade...

if it falls apart ..a good short..if it closes above 200dma...a good high probability long trade...for a while anyway...

BTW ...I think MER reports tommorow....those financials are shure settingup bullish formations though...and GS is kicking butt all day...so becareful of them thar puts in the XLF...

isaiah- glad to readr the "and back" portion of your post->i'm going to follow my own advice and not force any trades...we may get a nice opportunity in the last hour, but if not, we're all doing fine and why not sit back...

SDS - Back long @ 60.25

EEMTrader - thanks for the FXI "hammer" note - definitely looks interesting, plus some positive divergence on daily RSI there.

My current short on XAU feeling like it may have run its short-term course by eod today.

EEMTRADER..... Thanks for the explanation.

2nd...
Spoke to soon.... back in the furnace...

EEMTRADER..... Thanks for the explanation.

2nd...
Spoke to soon.... back in the furnace...

2nd,
Maybe....still wrong FXP, sitting on SKF but itchy finger...

isaiah- maybe you should cut your position size(s) so you only get 1/2 way to hell and back each time ;)...

OG- shorted at 60.81 and covered at 60.08? would say you did well...

2nd

you don't know the half of it... will sent you a FedX later...

Craig
Good to see your beating the streets! Go For It!

EEMTrader you're using the EMA not the SMA correct?

reenzo DAL up over 16 again

Craig have order in to sell Mar 17.50 EGLE puts @1.50 (not a lot of volume there)

WGW coming back up (Long)

Established MOO position @ 54.50

Current price on NOT? (no access Canadian mkt)

Huge buying in the XLF JAN 26 puts. I checked this earlier today and the volume was small then. I believe MER is reporting tomorrow.

Overall put/call ratio is above 1.0 which likely indicates a short term button. I will wait to S&P gets nearer 1420 to initiate new shorts.

Huge buying in the XLF JAN 26 puts. I checked this earlier today and the volume was small then. I believe MER is reporting tomorrow.

Overall put/call ratio is above 1.0 which likely indicates a short term button. I will wait to S&P gets nearer 1420 to initiate new shorts.

EEM - yeah but even if you get the hammer 144 is resistance are you really going to go long EEM for that little of upside?

NOT.V-> 3.58/3.59 (CAD)

3:59 Seamus, as reported on Skype :-)

Seamus...yes I am using EMA...seems to work with these two both the 50 and 200..check where FXI fell apart a few days ago..right at the 50EMA..

conversion rate->0.9837 for USD...

conversion rate->0.9837 for USD...

GEckjob...I have been long EEM all day...exited only when it poked the 200and fell apart..yes I would take the trade...because i know my downside..thats more important to me..where I get stopped .

SKF offed it near 113, partial reload at 111.36.
Would load up with a 110 handle.

Thank you for the option data on XLF.

2nd - For the record, I exited my last SDS long (from 60.25) at 60.53...again, too early, as no signal was given on chart. My "premature" exit did, however, let me avoid that nasty little run back down to 59.93 (since reversed). I am uncomfortable holding a double-short ETF into the close, given HB&B's penchant for painting the tape, so have no re-entered long.

that little ?..geckjb..its based on risk and time that my capital is exposed to the market..the way this thing moves...i could be out in under 30 mins...if it crosses....that 200 ema..check out how it gets stopped out at the 50 and 200 for either ETF...$1200 in 30 mins...yes..I would..I am a day trader remember..GS and AAPL..high volume expensive stocks..otherwise it doesnt work..

Reuters reporting a MN congressman Jim Oberstar confirming DAL-NWA merger talks. He said the NWA execs he spoke with thought there would be a benefit in a merge.

Jumped back in on Feb 08 DAL 17.5 calls

Exiting 1/2 of my XAU short at eod today.

Thanks 2nd . . . lots of rollercoaster out there . . . with all the excitement missed the move on SEED again, but it always seems to come back FWIW.

SDS - Nasty fluctuation in trade prices moment to moment: 60.80, 60.34, 60.80....stuff like that. Somebody's getting screwed. Oh, and once again I exited way, way too soon.....Some things never change.

Thanks 2nd & Si02

rollercoaster out there

Hhhmmm, mkt does not seem to like the DAL news...

Any thoughts on a rally at the end of the week?

Zenob,
Yes. I'd be in favor of it. Could even start now. I'm tired of holding my derriere which was handed to me this morning

reenzo patience is a virtue . . . I expect it to take two weeks if it will haappen . . . lots of noise between now and then

Market tanking into the close. No one wants to hold overnight. We'll probably see another 200+ down day tomorrow on the Merrill Lynch news.

Rob.

Market tanking into the close. No one wants to hold overnight. We'll probably see another 200+ down day tomorrow on the Merrill Lynch news.

Rob.

Hands are still falling asleep from sitting on them...

HGD looks like it will close strong.

Ok, sold some Jan'09-15 puts on INTC and Jan'09-2.5 puts on AMD, will add some more is the market crashes.

Ahh, much better. I sold into strength this morning and got good re-entry points on the bounce. It's a slow process but I am getting better at this. ;-)

Still holding all my SKF though. I'm going to wait for this puppy to combust before I let it go.

Seamus, patience indeed! The EOD action was interesting on both DAL and NWA.

I expect lots of "confirmation rumors" and "no comments" between now and next Wed's earnings conference call. Earlier reports had indicated they want to be able to give some preliminary

I've put a skin tight stop on the DAL position, and prepared an NWA entry to hold for the final run into the DAL conference call. I'm not sure which has more upside potential, but I am thinking it is the "merge-ee" rather than the "merge-or"...

IMHO HBB always tries to remove the largest amount of money from the most people. I expect a rally just in time for the options expiration. Regardless of fundamentals or technicals.

Everyone:
I sure appreciated your help and input today.
I was in serious trouble this AM (at least mentally) so it was really nice to be able to check in and get your collective take.

Held my WGW (thanks again Seamus) which was about $3000 UW this AM. 3.16 was a heck of a buy. Kudos to those that got em'.

I got some back with the SKF, short in the AM and then long in the afternoon. FXP was kind to me as well. I was able to make a little shorting GLD in the AM and covered when it reversed.

Not an easy day. I learned a lot about letting all that AM red get to me. I watched the Asian markets and the Euro open and had a hard time sleeping after seeing some down over 5%.
My mind was too quick to do the math and I expected the worst this AM.

Glad it didn't play out that way!

I hope you all either did well or stayed out of the way and had no harm done.

Anyone see the volume on the Nasdaq today. It was higher volume than the August low. Only one day since then was higher volume. It was Nov 8th, when the Nasdaq dove through it's 50 day moving average.

I don't know if that means we dive hard tomorrow or if it means nothing.

Rob.

Re "He showed me a chart of the average PE of the Shanghai Composite. Incredibly, it peaked at over 70 in October."

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange offers the average PE ratio (dropped to 74.28 from 76.13 yesterday) and other interesting information (e.g. the number of "investors" reaching 69,287,978 today)

http://tinyurl.com/3aduk7

I'm positioned for it.

Held FXP and SKF.

12,466 DJIA and NDX and S&P not healthy looking.
Of course the last time I was this certain was the beginning of December......remember the DOW sell signal? It takes time to get here and can kick you in the butt in the meantime.

Sooooo, I'm riding shotgun with Bill. I hope he knows where we're going! LOL!

Don't look now but gold today was mirroring the stock market on each swing.

Interesting that financials were rallying while commodities and tech were being dumped. Bill is right again - HBB is dumping each sector in a rotation so the indexes don't fall too fast.

Ah, down 10% in two days. Was worse earlier today, all because I didn't adhere to my stops. I got greedy, then desperate, and it burned me.

Intra-day, I had to hit the emergency button and eject. Liquidated all positions, went out to lunch, refocused on what's important, general outlook, and most important, RULES! Then I jumped back in during the afternoon. Recouped some losses.

Looking forward to tomorrow...

I am positioned massively short in Financials, Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary. Most of this goes to 2009 and some to 2010. Currently, my only long is Shanda Entertainment (SNDA) in China. I am waiting to go long with precious metals and miners.

I am long DUG since the middle of November with a cost basis of $42.50. I kept believing even when it recently dropped to $35 plus. Today it climbed back above $43 plus. Phew! Now I can continue to watch oil prices drop.

Scott

I am in all cash over night. I'll wait until tomorrow to look for another entry.

Rob,

Your thoughts are correct in theory.

In practice, the counterpart for most of the short interest is assured by market makers.

True, some traders sell puts, but not the majority. The most part of all puts are sold by market makers, which may or may not decide to hedge their positions.

Anyway, the open short interest is enormous here. The people selling those puts are loosing big time. Some, probably the majority, of those people are... HB&B.

And you are right, if I was in their shoes, I would try to do something about it.

So, I would not be surprised by a short term up move here, as we currently have a mix of:

- oversold TA conditions
- excessive short interest into options expiration day
- important chart levels which should not be breached lower if the gates of hell are to be kept closed.

That is why I am long here, and feel quite comfortable about it.

Cheers,

WSJ: Hackers at Wi-fi hot spots. (subscription may be required)

http://tinyurl.com/yu2288

We've discussed this here before, but just a reminder and heads-up to the newbies when they're on the road.

maromatics

I hope you are right.

Craig, I will second that....Not an easy day. As my losses mount in the iras I feel pressured to make some money on the days I am online. I just couldn't get my "timing" together today to do that. As I am learning the IB platform way too slowly, I see opps yet don't execute to my liking, or make small stupids to block the execution entirely.
I have to say that all the chatter here actually helps me to focus even if I don't put out a call for help
keep posting and protect that principle
Thanks Bill for this sight and your comments throughout the day.
peace from north puget sound
Gray

I would not be long in this market... next week is earnings for BAC & WB.

More weapons of mass destruction being blown off.

http://tinyurl.com/2keqlw

"Bank of America (nyse: BAC - news - people ), Wachovia (nyse: WB - news - people ) and other big lenders report next week and are also expected to write down billions of securities holdings."

Missed the 7% pop in ETFC today though. If the markets are going crazy with volatility, doesn't that mean more commissions for brokers?

Citigroup is continuing to have another bad year. Fire must have gone out in the wood burning fireplace on the 50th floor.

http://tinyurl.com/3bcejo

Did anyone catch Carter Worth on Fast Money?

Nice cursory analysis of the S&P and the triple bottoms, all within a few pts of one another, lower highs, and exactly five mos apart in the middle of the month. Sound argument for the further move down.

Contrarian argument: Larry Kudlow has turned into a street hawking stockmarket ragman.
Way over the top. Nothing about Goldilocks yet, but he's almost in a panic trying to get viewers to buy.

Macromatics,
It makes sense to me. We'll have to see how it plays out. Even though I've been losing money lately it's been extremely interesting and educational.

Rob.

http://www.billcara2.com/ without the comma added works

Hi Bill,

Sounds like a New Deal plan you got there... :)

I think fixing worn out briges & Katrina damage in the US beats setting up checkpoints overseas in the desert too, though kicking around sacks of hundred dollar bills like footballs must be fun. And what about the Boston Big Dig?

The US doesn't have any savings... and here's what I found came out of the last New Deal.

"The largest programs still in existence today are Social Security and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) - the primary regulator of publicly traded U.S. firms."

This blew me away... and it's still missing 2007.

http://www.crunchweb.net/87billion/

$315 billion could fix a lot of bank balance sheets right now, though there would still be a ways to go to top up the Social Security deficit. I would take the rounding errors on that one.

I'm reading a really interesting book right now called "The World's Money" by Michael Moffitt.

I see it is on Amazon for $0.02 which is $0.98 less than what I paid. :)

Talk about deflation.

http://tinyurl.com/38fum5

It's incredible how little has changed since the book was written, in 1982. Citigroup's still in trouble, the world still hangs on the words of the Fed, and the US is still causing problems with world financial markets.

Bill, how does yesterday and today compare with your feelings about the markets in late 1987 & in the late 70's? Anything changed or is the same game happening?

I'm definately getting better at the game but I still need more education. I'll stay tuned.

Cheers everyone!!

Rob.

one look at today's DJIA chart says it all->can't trade that kind of pattern...

craig- took the hit on FJPNX (and the N225 is up as i type, of course)...only position right now is HGD...driving will be easier without the excess baggage...

Bill,

thanks for the response. Always enjoy your insight.

If Congress has less than 24 hours to read thousand-page bills that are passed, not sure how the US is not already an authoritarian dictatorship with mass jails, wire-tapping campaigns, protest crackdowns, and the seizure of property by the state (or HB&B, same thing?). Hmm...

Apparently Nixon reneged on Bretton Woods in 1971, with no input or votes from Congress, and no input from the banking community, so maybe not much has changed since then either.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Shock

Bush's visit to Israel is already being compared to Nixon's visit to China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_China_policy

Search any countries name and adherence One China beside it in Google, and you will see the same binding statement that is required to do business with the country that Nixon approached with in 1972.

What if it all came down to something that happened over 30 years ago, and is coming back as the world focuses on China again in 2008, with it's trillion-dollars of US money in hand.

http://tinyurl.com/2kszrk

Today the market is more interesting to trade.... reminds me of an old saying I was told.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

I think that many people will prefer boredom after this week... maybe this year.

Caraistas living in the Vancouver area might be interested in attending the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, January 20 and 21. Lots of mining juniors and newsletter gurus will be there selling their wares. The conference is free if you pre-register.
http://tinyurl.com/27hglk

This dictatorship-style of governance goes back even further... remember a certain protest against Bush stacking judges in US supreme court?

By 1934, the Supreme Court began declaring significant parts of the New Deal unconstitutional. The programs were quickly fixed to pass muster, but in 1937 Roosevelt stunned the nation by a surprise proposal to pack the Supreme Court by adding five new justices. The proposal failed, and Roosevelt permanently alienated many conservative Democrats; however the Supreme Court started upholding New Deal laws. Justices then started retiring, allowing Roosevelt to select a majority of the Court. After 1942, the Court had become more passive in challenging New Deal laws. The Supreme Court ruled in Wickard v. Filburn that the Commerce Clause covered almost all such regulation allowing the necessary expansion of federal power to make the New Deal "constitutional".

Also in Vancouver, Roundup 2008. $300 admission but some say this is the more interesting conference
http://www.amebc.ca/rdupregistration.htm

Going back even further, to "National Treasure Book of Secrets" time... (Google is amazing with what it finds!)

"Pondering such an embarrassment to the Lincoln administration, the distinguished lawyer Richard Henry Dana, Jr., wrote to Charles Francis Adams: "Contemplate, the possibility of a Supreme Court deciding that this blockade is illegal! ... It would end the war, and how it would leave us with neutral powers, it is fearful to contemplate!" (35)

Given these circumstances, the Lincoln administration was enormously relieved when the Court sustained the acts of the President, including the blockade. A civil war, the Court held, does not legally originate because it is declared by Congress. It simply occurs. The "party in rebellion" breaks allegiance, "organizes armies, and commences hostilities." In such a case it is the duty of the President to resist force by force, to meet the war as he finds it "without waiting for Congress to baptize it with a name." As to the weighty question whether the struggle was an "insurrection," or a "war" in the full sense, (as if between independent nations), the Court decided that it was both. (36)

The Court then held Lincoln's acts valid. The blockade was upheld, and the condemnation of the ships sustained. But it was a narrow victory. The decision, handed down on March 10, 1863, was five to four, with Chief Justice Taney among the dissenters. Again, Lincoln was not Don Quixote; he could count popular votes, congressional votes, as well as judicial ones. He had stacked the Court in his favor, and his appointments cast the deciding votes. The three Lincoln appointees, Noah H. Swayne, Samuel F. Miller, and David Davis, joined Justice Robert C. Grier, who wrote the majority opinion, and the loyal Justice James M. Wayne of Georgia. "

http://tinyurl.com/3dhhmb

I wonder how far back you have to go to see that government is inherently corrupt?

Ok I'm done with that if we're done with the Livermore quotes.... Ron Paul for Pres... :)

Ok now how far does this really go back...

"After his praetorship, Caesar was appointed to govern Hispania Ulterior (Outer Iberia), but he was still in considerable debt and needed to satisfy his creditors before he could leave. He turned to Marcus Licinius Crassus, one of Rome's richest men. In return for political support in his opposition to the interests of Pompey, Crassus paid some of Caesar's debts and acted as guarantor for others. Even so, to avoid becoming a private citizen and open to prosecution for his debts, Caesar left for his province before his praetorship had ended. In Hispania he conquered the Callaici and Lusitani, being hailed as imperator by his troops, reformed the law regarding debts, and completed his governorship in high esteem."

Apparently Livermore has a blog too! And he's talking about sunspots as trading signals.

http://www.jesse-livermore.com/blog/

"Finally, today, Hypo admitted a writedown of $580m (390 million euros) on debt it had bought. Given that Hypo’s total profit last year was 429 million euros, there’ll be little if any profit this year. In today’s trading, Hypo’s shares promptly lost one third of their value.

Somewhat incredibly, Hypo’s CEO, Georg Funke commented that Hypo’s management had “not made any mistakes”. In fact he said they had done a “fantastic job”.

Jesse's blog also talks about Edison's invention...

3. During the 1890s, Emperor Menelek II of Ethiopia was told about electric chairs, and he promptly ordered 3 as a neat way of disposing of undesirables. Unfortunately, he didn’t realize that before you could kill people with them, you needed an electricity supply – which Ethiopia hadn’t quite got round to. The ever-resourceful Menelek put one of the chairs to use as his new imperial throne.

lol. Need to lay off the beer I think.

ALOHA !!

G'DAY GANG !!! From the Land Down Under!!

Yesterday I met with a local GATA group here in Perth, West Australia. I was very impressed and envious that these Aussies are so much more ahead of the curve than the average American. Yet they also pointed out that they also see the lack of interest in gold and precious metal shares even here in Perth amoung the average Australians. I find it very strange indeed since anywhere you go here there is constant mention of mining and the money being made in the mines.

I recall when I was a contractor in San Francisco and was doing the first Cisco installation of a VoiP system at Menlo College. Back then tech was super hot and I even heard students talking about their hot stocks dujour!

Aside from the meeting I attended in Subiaco yesterday the only other mention of precious metal shares was the bus driver on a tour of Broken Hill mine!

I believe the group of "gold nerds" I met up with are on the cutting edge of Australian gold stocks. We spoke at length about barriers set up by governments from trading foreign shares. We also spoke at length about how similar the Australian and American governments are in terms of "two party" dominance. I pointed out that throughout recent history the Australian government goes along with whatever the American government does. They immdeiately retaliated ... "Where were you blokes in Gallipoli?" Well ... you got me! But we have certainly had our own Gallipolis over the years and still are!!! We also spoke about the monetary systems and fiat's global dominance. In reality what wwe are seeing is not "economic" but "monetary" which those in power want to disquise as "economic". Even here in Australia the same "fiat based" issues dominate the struggle of the average Australian. In one word "inflation" ... Jumping from one paper currncy to the other is just shuffling the deck. The only "real" money is gold. So far the Average Joe or in Oz the "Average Ian" cannot fathom that even here in GOLD COUNTRY!

One of the companies they all seemed to agree would perform well in the long run was "CitiGold"! Ironically I told them I was going to meet with Citigold in Sydney at the end of the month. They informed me what and who they view needs "changing".

I also brought up the issue of dilution. Seems a lot of Australian shares have larger dilution than American and Canadian shares. Strange as it may seem I was told that the reason is that Australian banks were very reluctant to fund mining. Also options were issued rather freely to attract the better management talent, which in the past as it is today, is extremely limited. The fact is that the drought in spot prices all through the 1980s and 1990s has created this excess dilution and still has ripple effects even today in terms of shortages in lab work, equipment and labor. In other words mining is behind the perverbial "eight ball"! Not like the dotcom era ... you cannot just click a mouse and create a CAT 979 and its much easier to find "mouse clickers" than miners!

A very informative meeting all around and I have definitely expanded my "network" into one of the greatest mining countries on Earth! I might add one of the most mining friendly states in the World is Western Australia. COUNTRY RISK = MINUS 100!!!

ALOHA !!

One more factor that is constantly present here about mining difficulties ...

Its bloody HOT here ... 39C !!!! YIKES !!! What's the temp in a Cisco or IBM cubicle?

In the "Outback" there are no shade trees!

ALOHA !!

One more factor that is constantly present here about mining difficulties ...

Its bloody HOT here ... 39C !!!! YIKES !!! What's the temp in a Cisco or IBM cubicle?

In the "Outback" there are no shade trees!

Lack of 'interest' in precious metals could be construed as a 150% margin on borrowing, which is the going rate for retail accounts since 2002.

Did not see the action today, but gold still in backwardation at this hour, so I stick with $930 in the first week of February or before.

FranSix,

Can you point us to a source of up to the minute prices for the nearest gold futures contract? Gold futures on Yahoo are quite delayed. Thanks.

Re backwardation

I don't see it. Yahoo says February contract at 882.40 at 9:51pm EST, and my spot price chart shows 881.60 for the same time.

How is it in my broker's interest to have NITE trade against me, to the point that my broker would pay NITE part of my commission to do it?

I can see why NITE would pay my broker for the order flow. I don't see how the opposite works.

BTW, it's amazing how many people don't even realize that their broker lends out their shares for shorting, whether the client wants that or not. I imagine far fewer know that their broker gives their order information to some company in JC, to help that company trade against retail customers? I can't imagine there wouldn't be some sort of angry response to this.

Awesome posts today everyone!

These sure are turbulent times. Amidst the current financial, geo-political, economic and monetary environment, I find myself reading Gold Wars by Ferdinand Lips, my homepage (Bill's blog), and listening to the financialsense radio show.

It's really great to be able to see so many things for what they truly are. I learn many new things each day and can't help but have further conviction in those I respect greatly, and the decisions they have led me to come to.
Staying away from trading but keeping on open ear on the gold price...which hurts to hear them talk about on TV...a historical measure of confidence, etc...
Many of my juniors have shown signs of life recently, off the top of my head WHY which someone mentioned...I think CNU had some volume the other day, GIX just kind of floating, MOR still low, etc..
Are there many others in the same boat? Does the accurately depicted rise in Gold excite anyone else? Thank you all for sharing your knowledge and insights. When Bill said that blogs are taking over from mainstream media (to paraphrase), it really amazed me to think what of value this 'community' is. Not only the sector analysis, stocks recommended for due diligence, etc. but some of the discourse is truly fantastic.

Cheers from ol' Steel City.

SteveC:
Here is link to Kitco's gold price quote:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html

Gold may hit $1,000 in third qtr, Goldman says
By Emma Thelwell
Last Updated: 1:24am GMT 17/01/2008

Gold may smash the $1,000 barrier as soon as this summer should the dollar continue its slide and the woes of the US economy deepen, Goldman Sachs said today.

Goldman now expects average gold prices for 2008 to reach $915 - a notable increase on the bank's previous prediction of $800.

Analyst Oscar Cabrera, said: "Further credit events and increases in oil prices can create a 'spike' past the $1,000 level in the near term."

Gold has surged almost 10pc in 2008 as traders bet the US Federal Reserve will slash interest rates, weakening the dollar and boosting the investment appeal of the precious metal. Banks including HSBC and Wall Street both believe the Fed will now cut interest rates by 50bp to 3.75pc this month.

Goldman, which expects gold to average $1,100 during the course of 2010, expects demand to be bolstered by demand from US and Asian investors, and from the central banks of emerging markets seeking to diversify their reserveso.

Mr Cabrera said: "Thoughts of hard landing continue to creep into the market's psyche."
Goldman warned that weak results from Wall Street banks and further inflation fears could trigger a further upward leg in gold prices over the next few weeks.

The bank said the two best shares to buy to take advantage of their rally in gold are Barrick Gold and Gold Fields.

Mr Cabrera said that Barrick Gold, listed on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges, offers the best risk/reward ratio in Goldman's precious metal coverage, with 31pc upside potential.
Meanwhile, Goldman's said Gold Fields shareholders could reap a 44pc return - by taking advantage of the South African producer's leverage to gold in an improving price environment.

http://tinyurl.com/2sudvb

ronbon,

Thanks, Kitco is one of my sources for live gold spot prices. Backwardation occurs when the spot price is more expensive than the futures price. I don't have a source for live gold futures prices. Right now I only know of delayed gold futures prices such as Yahoo. I'd greatly appreciate someone pointing to any website that has live gold futures prices.

Add another exchange!

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong's local stock market operator is planning to launch trading in gold futures and options later this year, according to reports. A spokesman for Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. 0388.HK said no time table for the introduction of gold futures trading has been established, according to newswires reports. HKEx's announcement follows the inauguration of gold futures trading in Shanghai last week.

Last night I said "it looks like the Nikkei has been a wild ride tonight." Tonight's Nikkei action makes yesterday's look sedate. What's in the water in Japan?

Shanghai currently down over 4%, -225 to 5064

SteveC

For real time POG, try this site.

http://www.ino.com/