Bill,
What is really interesting is that, despite inflation clearly being a threat, the fact that investors are putting more money into bonds
suggests that investors are expecting a meaningful economic slowdown.
I have posted a chart of Retail Sales(RS) deflated by the CPI illustrating how Real RS is below the line of what was considered a slowdown in 1995.

Thanks Bill.

I'm seeing the broadest buying last week in defensive sectors as well such as Health Care, Utilities, Pharmaceuticals, Biotech (Big and Small); broadest selling (and more severe) showing up in technology related sectors such as Semiconductors, Software, Telecom; also Energy issues got very broad selling such as OIH, the Oil Services Trust HOLDRS and XLE, the SPDR Energy ETF’s....

Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

For a larger dose of cynicism on HB&B, I am reading
Traders, Guns & Money by Satyajit Das. He lived in the derivatives world for decades and 'tells it like it is' re derivatives and HB&B. Some paragraphs make my blood chill.

Volatile is the word so far this year with the (Canadian) stock market. The 10% stock holdings in both the cash and retirement accounts shot up 10% putting my overall gains so far this year at just under 1%. Now my goal for the year is 12% or 1% per month and so far this month has hit the mark. Further gains are quite possible as the stock charts are showing strength. But beware as this market takes what it gives very quickly. If you don't have a trading plan and day trade this market by the roll of the dice, then HB&B is waiting to take your cash.

Recession - The train is now approaching this station. We might be there for a while.

Interest Rates - The HB&B via the media wants you to believe that lower rates are good for us. Not. Good for HB&B with the mess they created. Lowering interest rates is a sign of warning not of relief. Things are bad - the US Dollar is going down; oil is up; gold is up; retails sales are down and inflation is disguised. What other signs do we need to see that the patient is sick?

Oil - Anyone expecting the price to come down drastically is dreaming (there will be up and down movements by traders). Oil sells for 15 cents a cup. Since 2005 there has been a deficit in oil production. The dirty, oil sands in Canada are a ticking bomb with the wasteful use of clean natural gas to produce this resource. The destruction to the environment and clean up is beyond belief. Short-term "get-what-you-can" for profits and the USA's need for this oil is the reason for this mess. There is no way that the USA is going to reduce oil consumption and the emerging countries are not going reduce consumption - they consume too little vs the improvements required for a rise in their standard of living.

HB&B - Watch out for these guys. The talk will be that inflation is okay, but the market outlook is weaker. They will tell you to buy stocks in defensive plays. There are no defensive plays in this market as they do not preserve capital, only commissions for HB&B and spin stories for the media.

There are challenges ahead for all of us. But this is not a dooms-day scenario. There are opportunities. [028]

Cash Inflows and Outflows are reported wkly at this link:
http://www.amgdata.com/

and this week's report is here:
http://www.amgdata.com/newsline.php?id=1578

Please answer for me these two statements below can be both true:
1. The US has negative savings; and
2. "Money Market funds report net cash inflows totaling $47.779 billion, as total net assets in the sector reach a record $3.2 Trillion; ..." [from link above].

Aren't Money Markets at least short term savings with some portion thereof at least long term savings? I know I have some savings in Vanguard US Gov Money Market.

Why should we pay any attention when the Gov says we aren't saving, and that is causing ??? [fill in the blank]?

"Scary view from Bill Gross:"
http://tinyurl.com/2mmw3z
Posted by: onlineaces at January 11, 2008 11:28 PM

not surprised that it's gone to "shadow banking," as all that 'wealth' had to come from somewhere. no one batted an eye when every J6P in the bay area started leasing new cars/SUVs, bidding up median home prices to 700K, and running up tabs at sushi bars every weekend. we'll need at least a 'recession' (maybe more) to unwind it all (and what's wrong with having one?). if bill gross can go back to his college years for analogies, we all can. remember the guys in your class->some have gone on to hb&b, and i am absolutely certain that making money trumps business ethics at every level of the game...

FT's John Dizard on GOLD says essentially:

Some gold investors follow Summers-Barsky historically-based theory (yes, Larry Summers) that people hold gold when returns from other asset classes are down. Lower official interest rates and sovereign wealth funds crowding into attractive investments are pushing down returns.

Still, many buyers in gold's current 5 year up-wave are leveraged momentum players. If they bail out - or must unwind their profitable investments to gain liquidity, gold could top and decline, although not likely as far as the general stock market.

How could short-term caution on gold prove unwarranted? - if Europe moves more rapidly towards lower interest rates than the market now expects.

Per an EC report, Spain, Portugal, and Italy have lost up to 20% of their relative competitiveness since Euro entry. He even speculates on their leaving the eurozone and devaluing to regain competitive advantage.

While this last speculation may be far-fetched, Dizard helped me understand stresses and strains surrounding gold's short-term prospects!

...but complaining about it will have little impact on our lives. panzner's 'armageddon' provides a few ideas for surviving a breakdown in the financial system (as we now know it), but i doubt it comes to that.

craig- would agree there has been no capitulation (at least, i haven't sensed one). themes running through my mind right now:

- dance never really stops. sector rotation, intervention, exchange rates, etc->it all sloshes around, and to really make money the port needs to constantly change.

- buying gold/foreign currencies. both sound good, but i don't want to be buying them now, right? i think buying the USD/Japanese stocks/maybe even the financials works for a few weeks...you could even pair those trades with shorts on gold and oil...->as the USD rises, would then buy gold/oil on the pullback(s), bail (momentarily) on Japan, short financials, and either buy foreign currency ETFs or open the Everbank account...

- emerging markets. think they go down this year (but up LT)...no take on when they go down or how far, other than to say we all know the P/Es on the BRIC indexes are pretty high and will come down...

- out of favor sectors. REIT/financial services will eventually (once again) be the place to go->of course, who wants to be the first to go long in the face of uncertainty? will be overweighting these sectors when the bull resumes, but that could be quite a while...ST,hoping for a bounce, as the news has been so overwhelmingly bad even bill miller is probably second-guessing himself...

Longer term I believe the financials are going much lower. But short term, does anyone else believe we may get a rally in XLF - which would likely bounce the markets? XLF had a pretty strong move the end of the week. I see no fundamental reason financials should rally, but the charts seem to be giving other indications.

Also, any thoughts on DBA and whether we finally have a climax of selling at the top and now can expect a pullback or does this rise continue? I have been waiting for a pullback for quite a while and, like gold, it has continues to move up. Like gold, I don't know if a bounce in the dollar (which I am expecting) is going to clip these commodities or whether the flight to safety assets will continue to push commodities higher. TIA - Green

green- your point(s) about skepticism re the XLF, and seeing no fundamental reason financials should rally->may act as bullish ST indicators, as most bear-market rallies seem to come out of nowhere...no positions, but wouldn't want to bet against them right now...

Here's a bit of levity, "$2100 a barrel Frappucino":
http://tinyurl.com/2jkzkk

On the Bill Gross theme, here's an article witten by Paul McCulley, of PIMCO, in March, 2007 entitled "The Plankton Theory Meets Minsky". Minsky distinguishes between hedge, speculative, and Ponzi finance units, and how they react to boom and bust credit cycles. I remembered this article for McCulley's statement: "[Y]ou are born short a roof over your head, and must cover, either by renting or buying."
http://tinyurl.com/2v4xbo

Barry Ritholz recently had an article on Seeking Alpha where he discussed the Kubler-Ross model of 5 stages of grief as it relates to markets:
http://tinyurl.com/2p4bqv

Here's a more humorous and succinct video of the Kubler-Ross model:
http://tinyurl.com/create.php

spot- maybe investors are simply transferring money out of stocks/equity and bond funds into MMFs...which would have no effect on the savings rate...

Sorry, the link to the Kubler-Ross video should be:
http://tinyurl.com/2da39u

Ritholtz's use of Kubler-Ross is right-on, as market downturns/recessions are always associated with grief...Todd Harrison's denial-migration-panic continuum also works...

speaking of Harrison, the 'path of maximum frustration' is the one to watch for when trying to predict future moves...

he's also fond of saying 'never short a chart you can't ski,' so maybe i jumped the gun on HGD...;)

2nd, I also hold HGD (and puts on XGD.TO, and am short 3 gold e-minis in the futures market). On those positions, and others I perhaps unwisely continue to hold, I am reminded of Jesse Livermore's statement:

"Of all speculative blunders there are few
greater than trying to average a losing game."

On the other hand, I have been rewarded lately by scaling into positions that seem to be near a turning point, even when they go against me short term, rather than selling at a small loss. My short-term trading account is up 27% in the past two weeks. Unfortunately my registered accounts are down 5% over the same two weeks, so overall it's roughly break-even.

I guess I need to follow the Dennis Gartman thesis of doing more of what's working, and less of what isn't.

Bill, we have upgraded the web site www.investigatethesec.com and have recently created a spot where the Anthony Elgindy sealed documents are being posted as these documents become unsealed. Soon we will also have some critical documents showing the insight into his fraud operations.

Please feel free one and all to peruse these court documents....http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/Elgindy

Dave

Bill,

We have also obtained information regarding two felons convicted of securities fraud. Sam Antar and Barry Minkow. Both have now taken up teh cause as "white collar criminal investigators" but a recent SEC ruling now make it appear that these two may be involved in other more criminal activity. In fact, in a deposition taken, Minkow had to admit that Antar was a major contributor in his operations.

at the end of this article is an attachment of that minkow admission. http://investigatethesec.com/drupal-5.5/StockgateToday

Bill said:
"if not, the legislators in most countries will take action"

Unfortunately, in the US the legislators are bought and paid for by the HB&Bs. Things will really need to get desperate before these hired hands revolt against the HB&B's I fear a more nefarious senerario will be the HB&Bs and their gov't pals will attempt get the HB&Bs out of debt with cheap dollars created by driving the dollar down and by goosing the inflation throttle.

2nd - regarding rotation into REITs for the time being...O and PLD seem like good candidates. Held up well on Friday and really all week. Also, PLD recently called "best bargain" by Barron's on Jan 8, which gave it a good week. could be some momentum building there.

I would stay out of financials until Merrill and Citi CONFIRM the amounts they are going to write down...rumors of $15B for MER and $24 for C floating around. Now that I think of it, why would these rumors be "floating around?" Maybe they would put out #'s like that, then "beat" them, so to speak, so there would be some massive up moves. Plus, they could then sucker SWFs into committing more capital...hmmmm.

I see you know Borden Rosiak from the olden days. I too knew him in the mid 70's at Coopers and Lybrand. Actually saw him at Kelsey's York Mills, this afternoon.

2nd_ave -
re:
spot- maybe investors are simply transferring money out of stocks/equity and bond funds into MMFs...which would have no effect on the savings rate...
Posted by: 2nd_ave [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 12, 2008 2:33 PM

I see what you are saying, but I didn't express myself very well in my original post. What I was trying to get at was this:
1. The Gov from time to time says that the US has a negative saving rate and that that neg savings rate has a negative impact on various Gov statistical data; but in fact if the statement in 2 (stated below is correct,
2. "Money Market funds report net cash inflows totaling $47.779 billion, as total net assets in the sector reach a record $3.2 Trillion; ..."; then,
3. There must be at least $3.2 TRILLION (with a T) plus whatever is left in bonds and equities in SAVINGS; but then, how could statement 1 above be correct.

Investopedia says this about "savings", which to me means that all bonds, equities, and money markets that are bought by individuals are "SAVINGS"; so, how does the Gov get away with saying that WE don't save in the US?

" Savings

What does it Mean? According to Keynesian economics, the amount left over when the cost of a person's consumer expenditure is subtracted from the amount of disposable income that he or she earns in a given period of time.

Investopedia Says... For those who are financially prudent, the amount of money that is left over after personal expenses have been met can be positive. For those who tend to rely on credit and loans to make ends meet, they will have negative savings. Savings can be turned into further increased income through investing. ..."
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/savings.asp

So, it would appear that at least in one definition, SAVINGS includes investments in bonds, equities, and MM of which MoneyMarkets have at least $3.2 Trillion - hardly a negative; so why does the Gov get away with saying there is no savings in the US?

Sorry - The above sounds like I am on a soap box, but the original post was not intended to be that way - just meant to be a simple puzzlement.

Thanks.

"Of all speculative blunders there are few
greater than trying to average a losing game."

Freedom57- know exactly what you (and Livermore) are referring to. However, i prefer (under qualifying circumstances) your strategy of "scaling into positions that seem to be near a turning point, even when they go against me short term, rather than selling at a small loss..." That strategy has worked for me->scaling into positions 20-25% at a time on the way down.

Livermore was undoubtedly referring to individual stocks, and not asset classes. Averaging down into ETFs (long or short) is a different ball game->note that he refers only to "trying to average a losing game." Difficult to imagine an asset class going to zero.

Secondly, unless you are very good at calling bottoms, your only options are to a) commit your entire allocation to a specific position at one time (NOT recommended), b) averaging up, or c) averaging down. Going all in is not an option for me- just don't think it's good money management, and you'd have to be more sure of yourself than I am. Averaging up is probably safest, and what I would recommend in general. However, my preference is to average down for the very reason you point out->well above-average gains most of the time.

spot- i'm wondering exactly how 'net savings' is defined. anecdotally i have NO problem believing americans borrow more than they save...so would posit the following:

using the 80/20 rule: is it possible that the top 20% of earners do in fact save (how could they not), and since they're responsible for 80% of the wealth, you see net positive inflows into all funds? WHEREAS the government defines net savings along the lines of % of population with net increase in savings?

incidentally, you may be interested in reading the below link comparing the amount of money in MMFs vs the amount in equity mutual funds:

http://tinyurl.com/yt43xu

actually, i should say "the CHANGE in % of population with net increase in savings," which would then be a negative number...

Spot: You have to factor both sides of the ledger. When you factor all deficits and unfunded obligations and private debt levered to falling RE it becomes easier to see we are debters, not savers. Use real inflation and it gets ugly.

Freedom57 and 2nd: Imagine if Livermore traded electronically for $7-$9 flat fee and they had ETF's!

Couldn't flows into MMF's be the result of selling equities? It's not really saying it's a net gain is it? It could simply be the transfer of capital from one instrument to another.
As in flight to safety.

craig- we've already ruled out the transfer of capital from equity funds to MMFs...but i see your point re inflation->of course, washington is not known for owning up to the real rate of inflation (core rate->who cares? we all live and die by the inflation rates that include food and energy, right?)

The Pyramids At Giza:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=2188872778&size=l

I think I just fixed a bug where people subscribing to billcara.com via Atom/RSS who use the content in the feed as opposed to loading the web page for each article were not seeing tables or charts. Let me know if anyone still sees this problem.

Hi,

At these levels the question appears to be if the gates of hell will open right now, or if we will still have some stracement before that happens.

So far, the lows of March 07 (1363 SPX) and August (1370 SPX) have not been violated. If these levels do not hold, then the gates of hell will be wide open, no question about it.

Nevertheless, after Friday's close, we are about 2,8% above it, and some signs are of the attempt to form a short term bottom can be witnessed:

- The daily stochastic is printing a buy signal, which is a sign that the selling is subsiding and money is coming in on the long side. This is a leading indicator that the bulls are trying to regroup at these levels.

- The MACD histogram is starting to show light signs of positive divergence.

- We had a "death crossover" (50 EMA crossing 200 EMA) on the SPX, but not on the NDX or DJIA.

- One can argue that an inverse head and shoulders can be seen forming at the 15 minute time frame with a 1430 SPX neckline. If this is to be confirmed, the target on the upside for this is our well known 1490 SPX strong overhead resistance.

Further, the kind of news coming out over the weekend regarding bank's reslts forecasts are clearly paving the way for "good surprises" during the week, as the reports come in with "better than expected results".

We are well advised to be aware that all of this is manipulated, and that there is plenty of downside risk to come around.

However, a short term fibonacci retracement can be forming, and so this may well be a good short term buy. Soon it will be time to seel again.

Looking forward to the WIR.

Cheers,

2nd_ave/Craig - Thanks for the comments. In any case, that link in my original article gives some insight where money is flowing and is worth tracking to determine trends for certain types of investments. Right now, inflation protected Treasuries (TIP) and MM are getting a lot of inflow.

Maromatics - Nice TA summary. Some pundits are referring now to the 400dsma in addition to the 50 and 200dma's. SPX fell through the 400dsma this week, so that might be resistance OR it might be a springboard for squeezing the shorts BWTHDIK.

Great stuff, gang.

"Sunday Morning Coffee" up with accusations of me being too bullish. I guess I want to trade against the crowd...

but not own too many financials or any housing-related plays...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2008/01/sunday-morning-coffee-permabullish-not.html

Regards to all.

Ron:
Last week and again this week, I tried, unsuccessfully, to post a comment...perhaps navigating the 'TYPEKEY' challenge is beyond me...
Anyway, I just want to say thatI appreciate your work and your writing style and your humility...
BSC chart inscrutable for this neophyte...
And what is a DeMark'ish play?

regards
joey

rob d- adding PLD to the watch list, thanks...both O and DDR (more into shopping centers/mini-malls) both yielding >7%->buying either one at the bottom of the last recession->4-5 baggers...

Joey,

Tom DeMark (many find his writings unintelligible)...emphasizes buying or selling exhaustion (search under DeMark Sequential)...

For those 'believers' in Fibonacci, the BSC chart looks for some confluences of multiple price areas using Fibonacci retracements off highs and lows.

I've never made any money off fundamental analysis, which is why I have to try to use TA and risk management.

"Even a blind pig finds an acorn some day." Oink.

What is the general consensus of the group...

Question: Will gold correct back to the mid 600's to low 700's, or has the train left the station for news highs with future "higher-lows'?

Craig, and All charts guys (people)

I read your post yesterday on the chart of the NY new lows and agree with you. I also look at something similar but I use the "percent of stocks above their 50 MA" along with a couple of other indicators. Unfortunately Stockcharts only has this data back 6 years, I would like to have plotted it thru the last bear just to see how it would look.

Anyway the charts below cover the last 4 years, all are still in the channel, (at the bottom), all have signs of turning back up in the channel and that is my short term position, bulls still fighting to keep this trend going at least a while longer. Also the Down Crowd is just becoming too vocal right now, time for a good bounce, mid point of channel but below recent highs, then I will look to re-enter the bear side.

$COMPQ chart
http://tinyurl.com/2e2vqo

$NYA chart
http://tinyurl.com/yop737

$SPX Chart
http://tinyurl.com/2f6edh

Great discussion and references

Fransix thanks for the chart . . . wish I had one of those giant printers . . .chart would make great wallpaper above the screens

Maromatics thanks for the TA as I tend to think the dance may step up in the very S/T before it steps back again

Robd and 2nd ave already had O on the list, will add PLD, thanks. Think we still have some time before pulling that trigger, but worth bookmarking.

Patchie, familiar with Minkow and his prior antics in So. Cal . . . not surprised to hear a reformed con man accepted as creditable by the WSJ was shorting the company he was accusing of fraud . . . great links, thanks

Oil pulling back reminds me to recheck g034’s prior play on chemical company DOW.

prieur's latest:

http://tinyurl.com/2s4335

note that gold (+) and oil (-) were the bookends to investment performance last week...

Maromatics:

Many thanks for excellent observations; your lesson on TA is seeping into my 82-year old brain remnant; that may well prove that there's hope for us all.

Qua

Fred - CNU.V Continuum

Pls. let me know the answer to your query on CNU.V's negotiations over Navidad. I'll feed it into the juniors' project team.

Kaimu is a huge believer in CNU, and has opined that negotiations with the big guys often drag out.

Quazi,

Very cool charts.
I'm a newbie chartist here, but some observations:

1. The three indices look ripe for a bounce.
2. As part of the topping pattern, one could imagine a one long bearish divergence dating back to Jul '06--extend your downward "5-%MA" lines from 7/06 to present.
3. One could argue the charts looked similar before (bearish divergence, oversold CCI, lower lows, lower highs, head and shoulders, but went on to continue bullish long term rally (First half of '04, possibly '06)
4. So based on the TA alone, you could still argue continuation of secular bull rally from here as before....I suppose that's where one's assessment of economic fundamentals comes in...in our case in '08, poor market fundamentals.
5. If a new downward trend channel, established (not drawn),we're quick to sell rallies...I'd get nervous at 50 on the "%above 50MA:....depends on how much fight left in bull, but who can tell?

...cool charts.

Macro,
interesting observation about the "positive less bad" news over weekend and how that sets up the "spin" for the next week....

Thanks everyone for the contri's...Party on, Carasitas!

fwiw - was just glancing at the BooksonBiz.com site to see when the pre-ordered Trader Wizard Cara book would likely be shipped. Site currently indicates the book is expected to be in stock Feb. 8

Jock,
I'll certainly let you know when I receive a response from CNU.V. I was really bummed to see them reprice 400,000 executive options, which expire in 2012, from .55 to .30. It sends me a message that management doesn't expect to see a .55 share price again in the near future. I've communicated that to CNU via email. Disclosure: I hold a significant number of CNU shares.

If fed funds hit 3.5% as "others" have implied what would that equate to in mortgage rates on jumbos?

stktrader: Jumbo rates more a function of 10-yr ( market determined not fed dependent), the state and credit history and lender.

stktrader- the last time the Fed brought (short-term) rates down, LT rates more or less followed, which brought 30-year fixed rates (both conforming and jumbo) down to 40 year lows...not so sure long bond holders will be willing to settle for the same rates this time around...

The fun has only started!

Cleveland's lawsuit against investment banks may prompt other cities to pursue action

Cleveland seeks retribution in foreclosure epidemic
Sunday, January 13, 2008Henry J. GomezPlain Dealer Reporter

Cleveland's lawsuit against 21 investment banks is likely to inspire similar efforts from cities and even homeowners who feel they have been hurt by foreclosures.

That's the prediction from attorneys and others who follow real estate and finance, given the national attention the city has received with its novel argument that the banks created a public nuisance.

Two lawyers -- one who believes in the city's position, and one who does not -- each described the case Friday as "just the tip of the iceberg."

Brian

Fred - CNU.V repricing options

That seems outrageous to me, since their stock was at .75 just a few months ago. I'll let a few other holders know that. Maybe you all can mount a protest! - Jock

Shanghai now positive, Hang Seng will soon follow...
Nymex Feb NG up 2.4%...

..should say, Shanghai back above water/HK about to do the same...

Asian Stocks Fall, Led by Shipbuilders, on Global Trade Concern
By Chua Kong Ho and George Hsu
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) –

Asian stocks fell to a three-week low, led by shipbuilders, after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecasts for the region's expansion on expectations a recession in the U.S. will curb economic growth.

Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., the world's biggest shipyard, posted its worst decline in a month after the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of transportation costs, plunged the most since June 1989. PetroChina Co. led a decline among oil-related stocks as crude traded near a three-week low on concern slowing global growth will trim demand.

``A recession in the U.S. is unthinkable for most investors, but the evidence is pointing to one,'' said Ashley Kang, who helps manage $1.7 billion at IBT Securities Co. in Taipei. ``The falling U.S. economy will have widespread implications for Asia, hurting exporters and all related companies.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan Index slipped less than 0.1 percent to 511.38 at 12:12 p.m. in Hong Kong. Benchmarks fell across the region apart from Taiwan, Australia, China and Indonesia. Japan is closed for a holiday.
Taiwan's Taiex index gained 1.4 percent, the biggest advance in the region, on speculation the opposition Kuomintang party's landslide victory in parliamentary elections will herald lower tensions with China and ease restrictions on Taiwanese investments in the world's fastest growing major economy.

In the U.S., the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 1.4 percent on Jan. 11, after forecasts from American Express Co. and Tiffany & Co. heightened concern the world's largest economy is shrinking.

U.S. Recession

Goldman Sachs last week joined Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch & Co. in forecasting that the U.S. will slip into recession this year for the first time since 2001 amid fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis. The U.S. is the biggest market for most of Asia's export-dependent economies.

Asia ex-Japan's economies will grow 8.3 percent in 2008, down from an earlier estimate of 8.6 percent, Hong Kong-based economist Michael Buchanan said in a Goldman Sachs report today. Next year's growth will be 8.5 percent, compared with a prior prediction of 8.6 percent.

Hyundai Heavy, based in Ulsan, South Korea, declined 4 percent to 393,000 won, the biggest drop since Dec. 17. Samsung Heavy Industries Co., the world's second-largest shipyard, fell 4.2 percent to 34,400 won.

Cosco Corp. Singapore Ltd., the shipbuilding and repair unit of China's biggest shipping line, fell 4.7 percent to S$5.24, set for its lowest level since Sept. 21. Keppel Corp., the world's largest rig-builder that also constructs other vessels, retreated 1.9 percent to S$12.54.

Bulk Shipping Costs

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, dropped 4.6 percent to 7,949 on Jan. 11, the steepest fall since 1989.
``With bulk-shipping rates falling, bulk carrier prices could decline and prices of other kinds of ships could follow,'' said Hwang Kyoung Shik, who helps manage the equivalent of $530 million at KTB Asset Management Co. in Seoul.

PetroChina, the nation's largest oil producer, slid 2.1 percent to HK$13.40. Cnooc Ltd., China's biggest offshore oil explorer, declined 1.3 percent to HK$13.92.

Crude oil for February delivery fell 1.1 percent to $92.69 on Jan. 11, the lowest close since Dec. 20. The contract was recently at $92.68.

http://tinyurl.com/2t5v5r

Anna Schwartz blames Fed for sub-prime crisis
Last Updated: 12:47am GMT 14/01/2008

As rebukes go in the close-knit world of central banking, few hurt as much as the scathing indictment of US Federal Reserve policy by Professor Anna Schwartz.

The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.
"They need to speak frankly to the market and acknowledge how bad the problems are, and acknowledge their own failures in letting this happen. This is what is needed to restore confidence," she told The Sunday Telegraph. "There never would have been a sub-prime mortgage crisis if the Fed had been alert. This is something Alan Greenspan must answer for," she says.

Schwartz remains defiantly lucid at 92. She still works every day at the National Bureau of Economic Research in New York, where she has toiled since 1941.

Her fame comes from a joint opus with Nobel laureate Milton Friedman: A Monetary History of the United States. It revolutionised thinking on the causes of the Great Depression when published in 1965. The book blamed the Fed for causing the slump. The bank failed to use its full bag of tricks to stop the implosion of the money stock, and turned a bust into calamity by raising rates.

"The book was a bombshell," says British monetarist Tim Congdon. "Until then almost everybody thought the free-market system itself had failed in the 1930s. What Friedman-Schwartz say was that incompetent government bureaucrats at the Fed had caused the Depression."

http://tinyurl.com/2un345

One guru's reason for expecting junior miners now to gain vs. seniors ...

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1200318000.php

Sovereignty Taxation Democracy. All Things Bright And Beautiful
My Attempt To Prove To You That With Todays Technology, There Is No Reason Why Anyone Should Submit To Taxation As Demanded By Any Government. It Is Time You Changed Your Ways And Working Agreement. Then You Tell The Government What Taxation You Are Going To Pay. End Of Story.

http://tinyurl.com/34jr3b

He has a blog link from this site

For the past few hours IB have been flashing alerts that Globex are busting some futures and options trades done on various equity indexes done between 1:01 and 1:05 Chicago time. It seems there was an order imbalance and trades were made outside an acceptable range.

Does anyone have further insight into this?