Rumor Washington Mutual is being taken over by JPM.

Look for the financials to rally and WM to do what CFC did yesterday....although I'll bet the shorts are covering like mad as I write this.

Good morning 2nd. Nice move on FXP yesterday, playing out today. Very nice. I hope everyone was paying attention and took action.

Another romp in the killing fields today.

Be careful out there...

LOL! The rumors are flying Bill. Did you see the big headline about Best Buy sales up 7%?
And the CNBC report on WM. Desperate.

I was watching Fast Money and Cramer last night.
Cramer says the bottom is in on certain financials. Great, let him buy them with his money. It reminds me of the RE/builder bottom we were supposed to have for the last year or so.

On day trading this market....I have been cutting my losses even faster then previously.
In this market a few seconds can turn a winner into a loser, and a little loser into a monster loser. Better to hit the parachute and think of reversing your trade. Lots of whipsawing going on. It's usually a sign I didn't pick the proper entry or like yesterday, rumors and HB&B deals changed the dynamic.

I may just move my checking and savings accounts out of BAC now. I'm afraid I might become dumber by association. ;)

Do we see FXP pre-trading at 72.90?!! and CFC at 6.90? Wasn't the deal at 7.73? Shaping like a very good day today.

And check out the trade deficit news. Inflationary, says I.

Quasi,
Thanks for the clarification. I'm expecting us to rally up to the upper channels by the next FED meeting and then crashing down to the lower channels after the FED announcement, just like we did in December. I think it will work one more time but then they'll change the game plan for the next FED meeting. Or, if the FED doesn't lower rates at the next meeting I would expect the rally to continue.

Rob.

FXP: Better than expected, no? LOL!

Bill, Don't think the early reports are not noticed. You must be up very early these days as I'm up at 4:30 or so PST and the last few days the daily is waiting for me when I turn my computer on. Many Thanks....but please don't overdo it! The Crystal ball needs it's beauty sleep.

Okay, this is dumb luck....I bought SKF in the premkt with a 115.96 ask and a 114 bid. My buy was filled at 114.56 and when the news on WM hit I put in a sell at 115.
Damned if it didn't sell at 115 and then fell to 113 bid/133.98 ask. THAT's what happens in this goofy mess of a market. Rumors. They can kill you or you can get lucky. That's two lucky's for me in the after and premarkets with SKF...best to sit back now. This is where I usually get slaughtered.

TimG- thanks for the link...

Oops, 113.98 ask...not 133. That wouldn't have been good if I sold at 115. Now I see the bid/ask is back where it was. No matter, more opportunities.

Indeed Craig, almost too good to be true.
And Feb natural gas is up to 8.33.

Bill,
Great point!! No one could afford to run their family budget the way our government overspends our money. They would be locked out of their home and their car would be repossessed. I'm writing an article now on interest we pay on the National Debt.

Some highlights are that our Government in FY2006 spent 16.9% of their revenue on interest payments. Does anyone know someone carrying that kind of interest burden successfully? If you do they're probably close to foreclosure. The government operates on the same false premise people losing their houses did. People assumed their houses would always rise in value faster than their debt and the government assumes people will always buy as many bonds as they need to sell.

Based on the July 2007 estimate that there are 301 Million people in the US, every American's yearly interest burden is $1348. For FY2006, in order to just pay the interest on the debt and not run any deficits the government would have had to cut spending by $654 Billion Dollars which equals 24.6% of outlays that year. You see why it's critical to cut spending now and maybe even raise taxes to pay down this debt before there is no hope of us ever honoring our obligations.

Rob.

craig- yes, it's deja vu all over again...(should google yogi berra and find out if someone's written 'investing with yogi' or something->every one of his quotes resonates with trading)...

can't decide whether to sell the FXP or let it ride->maybe it's time for the big drop->what better time than a friday after two manufactured rallies? watch and wait...

Good morning.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes at this moment:

Upgrades:

DELL - to Overweight @ Lehman Bros.
NOK - to Outperform @ RBC

Downgrade:

GFI - to Sell @ Deutsche Securities

Other Stocks of Interest:

AU - downgraded to Sell @ Deutsche Securities
DROOY - downgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities
GBN - downgraded to Hold @ Deutsche Securities
HL - upgraded to Market Perform @ BMO
HMY - downgraded to Sell @ Deutsche Securities

-------------------------------------------------

Have a profitable day and a great weekend.

Bill the early reports are definitely noticed , and appreciated,over here in the UK and Europe,its after noon before I read your report.This is a globally connected community.

Why all the downgrades in GOLD STOCKS?

Do you think some banks are short up to their ears and praying for a pullback?

Or do you think Big banks want a major pullback so they can LOAD UP?

I feel a little of both is playing out...

Quest Uranium, QUC on the TSX begins trading today. Many of you should have this in your accounts as a spin-off of Freewest.

2nd,
Maybe a trailing stop? The darned thing swings like a door so you never know.
As I'm cutting losses almost immediately I'm also taking profits a bit quicker too.

I'm not getting caught out again like I did with SBUX. Speaking of SBUX, I see it's pulling back again. It will be worth looking at when our wagon stops at the bottom of the hill.

Sure a ton of rumors, deals, BS in BAC and the financials today. They are saying they got no government support for the CFC deal. That was a big part of yesterday's rumor. that the Fed had brokered the deal and guaranteed the CFC debt.
I'm with Bill, I wouldn't touch these with any pole. Sure was a huge push on CNBC last night on buying financials. Maybe it's hitting GE financial? LOL!

I'm waiting for my down 1000 day....

"Why all the downgrades in GOLD STOCKS?"
Posted by: basketguy at January 11, 2008 9:03 AM

come on, man->wavesmash and i need a break on HGD...;)

ever since i worked for a bank for a short period of time 8 years ago i developed a dislike for them, at least the canadian ones.

i always found it interesting how much respect canadian banks claim they recieve in international financial arena's for prudent management and sound leadership.

banks in canada are textbook definitions of Oligarchy, accept that as usual such words aer reserved for the boogie man states like Russia.

Canadian banks have only a limited set of competitors, with many carving out their own areas of specialization to enhance their participation in convincing canadians that this is the way to go.

somehow canadian banks have managed to charge us fee's well beyond what american banks have for years, all while spending millions in advertising telling us how fantastic they are.

watching BMO and CIBC's plunge to multi year lows, while their CEO's appeared on television in $4000 suits proclaiming the "sub-prime" fiasco would only minimally impact their business provides the kind of irony i think canadians can really enjoy, (if it werent for all the canadians who invested so heavily in the bullet proof banks, with their attractive yeilds and doubling of value in only a few short years.. they were conservatvie large cap stocks that gave returns of growth stocks, and a healty dividend... it was heaven on earth for a time)

now TD bank proclaims its stock price has went down simply because they are the baby being thrown out with the bath water, they have virtually no subprime exposure. i wonder if this is no different from their august claims that sub-prime was less than %1 of their total mortgage portfolio's and thus not a worry.

at what point will these banks admit their errors and spend less money advertising their way out of this mess and come clean?

i hate to see people loose their money, but i hate to see crooked institutions loose people's money for them, while still holding their thrones as kings of canadian finance.

this is why i began investing in gold.

good luck to everyone today.

2nd...

I think you will get that break, but I feel a push above 900.00 first ti really scare the shorts out of the way...

Then DA BOYZ can take gold apart, feel you need a little more pain...:^)

Just sell that FXP you picked up at 68...NICE..

One month LIBOR is now 1 basis point below the FED funds rate. What does that mean? Are the banks already pricing a FED rate cut into LIBOR?

Rob.

Gold better come down soon. I need help on my NEM puts. Especially if the market keeps tanking and I have to get rid of my QQQ calls at a loss.

Rob.

Dr. Cosa
Do you really believe that Ed Clark is a lying when he say TD Financial has no subprime exposure?
It is the great Canadian pastime to complain about Canadian banks. If they are an oligarchy and that makes them such great businesses, why not stop complaining and own them?
Wayne
Disclosure: Long some members of the oligarchy.

OT:

Fox News viewers voted Ron Paul the winner of last night's Republican Debate.........by a wide margin.

This fact seems to have been lost on the Fox News website. IMHO, the media will do anything to keep this man from getting his message out.

Some highlights from the good doctor:

Paul said he does believe the U.S. is in a recession.

“I think it’s going to get a lot worse if we continue to do the wrong things that we’ve done in the past, that it’s going to be delayed, just as what happened in the Depression,” Paul said.

Paul said he would not use the government to appropriate money to prevent a recession, but he would support a reduced tax burden. He added that the Federal Reserve propping rates helps create and prolong recessions, and is responsible for the housing market “depression.”

“Artificially low interest rates is the artificial stimulus which causes the bubble, which allows the inevitable recession to come,” he said. “So what we need to do is deal with monetary policy and not pretend that artificial stimulus by more spending is going to help. That won’t do you one bit of good.”

Re: Canadian Banks

Some of my co-workers were sold into taking loans they could not afford to invest in an RRSP to --- get this --- invest in their bank.

Gold

Looks like the basis is still very tight, that means cash is going into gold. No major price corrections for the near future, though seasonality will eventually take over in February - late March. Still expecting ~$930$US as seasonal high.

$C bullion breaking out:

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/dailyshort2000.html

$C bullion clearly breaking very long term channel:

Stockcharts.com $GOLD:$CDW

http://tinyurl.com/2t259k

Oil prices are what concern me here. They have gone so far beyond fundamentals and ignored seasonality, that a very serious correction is in order. I expect that oil should see $104 in early Feb.

Funny AMD and INTC updates:

04:25 AM EST UPDATE: Big Losses Projected At Struggling AMD
04:25 AM EST UPDATE: Intel Expected To Post 12% Jump In Revenue

Thus, AMD up 4% and INTC down 2%...

SEED on fire again . . . in at 8.88

How do I double short HGD... this market is killing me... :)

Don't bet against China in anything...

What's wrong with Canadian Bank stock prices right now?

MBI up 8% on rumors that buffet may annouce some kind of partnership

BullHunter - Ron Paul has consistently won the Fox opionion polls on each debate. I don't think it's genuine as Ron Paul has a huge passionate internet following that have come out full force during these debates voting him the winner. I have no position on Paul, I think he is genuine but the voting is not is all I am saying.

S&P TSE Financial Services Index:

Stockcharts.com

http://tinyurl.com/346uae

Its just a little stubborn.

Think gold shorts are close to covering...

Lets watch the SQUEEZE...

Stop hit on SEED . . . out at 9.70

wavesmash . ." Don't bet against China in anything."

SEED is a Chinese company . . . lately ramps up, then later in the day recedes . . . don't leave the screen with this one .. . I returned and it has bounced all over . . . may go higher but I'll take it

If the Dow gets back to 12,720-730 and hangs out for a little bit, I'll be going long. Otherwise, out for the weekend. My nerves need a rest.

wavesmash- i picked up some more at 8.99 (again, not sure how that happened, as bid/ask->9.12/9.14 at the time, unless purchase price and quote are denominated in different currencies)->just sit back and let it play out...

Sold my FXP and EEV this morning just after the open.

Put in an order for some URE (Ultra real Estate) which I am playing as a helicopter Ben bear rally play. Put bids in at 28.30 and 28.40. They both executed at 28.20 - nice!

Feb 90 puts on XOM looking attractive right here. Anyone else agree?

If AXP is having losses on its CCs, and they have a greater share of well-heeled customers than other CCs, how about shorting MA (Mastercard)?

The puts are so expensive though, unless looking at deep OTM, something like 150's.

Any opinions on shorting MA?

Billy,,,

Agree on the XOM, but I am waiting for a little more of a squeeze to possibly 93.00...

We shall see...I want the advantage when I buy some puts...Will be looking at March..90.00 strike

All these write downs are a bunch of smoke and mirrors.
Merrill is set to write down 15 billion in bad paper now. It would be nice if investors could write down their total investment losses per year instead of being limited to $2,000 each year. What gives these banks the opportunity to write off billions of dollars with the stroke of a pen?

Keep in mind that Thain is nothing more then an ex-Goldman Sachs'er just like the other appointed (NOT ELECTED) self serving individuals in high economic positions in this Republican controlled government.
One big happy family this HB&B web of power!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/11/business/11wall.html?th&emc=th

I wouldn't go short here for the short term. Merrill is trading up on reports of a $15B writedown and Bear Sterns is way up.

I feel like there will be better setups for shorting in the future.

AKAM is coming ever closer to a accumulation zone. If it merely reverts to the 50 day moving average, that would be a 20% return.

NOT.V on the move....breathing a sigh of relief

Anyone else see the stat on Bloomberg last night..

Some took a survey of investors..

THE MOST BEARISH IN 17 YEARS....

THIS TO ME SAYS WE GO HIGHER???? HOW CAN THE MARKET FAIL BEING SOOOOOOOOOO BEARISH

ANYONE PLEASE SAVE ME BEFORE I BUY CALLS

NOT.V on the move....breathing a sigh of relief - wasn't looking forward to UXG redux!

Mastercard doesn't provide credit, they are just the middleman taking 1.5% of the transaction. I wish I understood that when they went public. They have no potential losses to book on bad credit. However, if transactions decline, their profit will decline too.

Here is a link to the Bloomberg article

http://tinyurl.com/2g8lb9

moab, thanks a lot. So it's not the same potential. Still, it is falling hard.

You can short it on momentum, but on fundamentals it is not as bad as AXP or COF.

Guess that BEARISH sentiment is only 100-200 individual investors out of 170000 members...

Not much of a survey to hang your hat on...

Lets do our own survey...WHO IS BEARISH...

BASKETGUY = BEARISH 1 vote

Bill:

Re Horowitz article about BofA/CFC

great article...tx for posting it.

I turned my interest in CFC to 'off' the other day when CFC was at $5.02 and I close out my puts.

My interest is back 'on'...watching to see whether the merger will be called off...

regards
joey

Been short 2X EWJ (proxy for Nikkei). Down more today. Appearing to be testing low weekly close from July 2006, with a lot of air underneath that level.

If people have time please take a look at the chart & let me know any good thinking you may have on direction over next 2+ weeks.

Whoa, COF is really looking bad. Minyanvile just said they put out a press release at midnight referencing SEC filings that have not been filed yet; significant changes to disclosure format; says liquidity is strong but moves non-bank assets into the bank.

BMK.V just popped big as well - wish I'd bought more yesterday. Looks like the "Ring of Fire" is suddenly back in style.

GOLD FUTURES PRINT ABOVE 900.00

Wayne:

re oligarchs,

i believe TD's big boss is honest w/ respect to subprime, but knows full well sub-prime is but one of the toxic instruments that has killed so many banks, and TD bank is not immune.

their stock price has taken it on the chin as well, and i refuse to buy into the idea that it only is due to other crappy banks dragging them down, this may be part of the problem but it sidesteps banks taking any sort of responsibility in shady dealings. i think even TD bank will reveal losess related in some way to faulty derivatives.

i wouldnt want to own any bank stocks myself hence my complaints are justified, good luck watching the XFN (canadian financials ETF),

Many traders use fibaonacci retracements.

I never cease to be amazed at how often these ratios work.

How about PHI, the Golden Ratio - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio

If you take the max height of the symmetrical triangle and multiply it by 1.618, you get a price target of roughly $898 which is $4 higher than the triangle target. Gold is currently trading at $898 and I wouldn't be surprised to look back at this as the top of this move, short term.

If you are not familiar with PHI and fib ratios, see link provided above.

The ANALysts are busy today.

Here are some Cara 100 Target Changes:

Target Raised:

GG - $38 to $41 @ BMO
SLW - $18 to $19 @ BMO

Target Lowered:

JCP - $58 to $56 @ Lehman Bros.
KSS - $62 to $56 @ Lehman Bros.
KSS - $57 to $46 @ BMO

Anyone in GSS...

I have a few hundred shares up about 12% and wodering where we may be headed?

The Baltic Dry Index (dry bulk shipping) is down another 288 point.
A fall in BDI is usually considered a sign of a global slowdown. It was around 11000 in mid-Nov. and is now 8333. On the other hand, the dry bulk shippers are up today - DRYS +5.1% DSX +4% NM +2%
DRYS is down 40% in the last couple of months.
Several analysts are pushing these stocks right now... but it doesn't make sense to me until the BDI heads back up... But boy did they have a great run in 07!

g034 at January 11,

fwiw I am giving more weight to the flag scenario from 650(aug low) to 848 being the mast added on the the breakout around 820 giving a po of 1020 for this move. That pause at 848 was significant to me because it allowed the consolidation flag just below the all time high so that the jump above might have some steam.jmo it looks good to go

GSS -

I bought some at $3 a month ago. I am holding for higher prices. Management was buying their own shares aggressively all last year at under $4, and the market is valuing their reserves at $60 an ounce. An analyst put a $6 price target on it yesterday (forget which firm).

Its hard not to take a 33% return in a month but I am holding this for the medium term. They are also takeover bait as the area they are in in Africa is primarily owned by majors like AngloGold.

who the heck is buying banks today? It's been a long time since I've seen the XLF hold out during a sell off. Normally it leads the charge down.

Hi,

Bottoms are not events, but they are a process.

Technicals are showing the first signals of a short term bottom approaching here.

Bought March NDX calls @ current levels, strike 1.800, for the time being. This is a conservative play here. Will add more risk as the market recovers.

Also am monitoring gold for a short term pullback at any time in the near future, and will short it intraday when it develops.

Time to buy the fear.

Cheers,

If you're buying into XLF you're buying into 2004/2005 levels.

If you're selling XGD you're selling 2008 prices.

Could this be the reason XLF is holding up?

Q: "who the heck is buying banks today?"

A: http://tinyurl.com/y86jvf

:^)

That explains it. ;-)

Birch Mountain, BMD.to for the followers here.

Nothing new here, just looking at the charts while I'm playing around and noticed this one may be getting interesting, Not yet but maybe. Longterm and short term charts below.

Currently at long term resistance, possible double bottom forming, might consolidate sideways in the mid $0.50 -1.00 range for a while, making for a nice short term trade ? The other nice thing I like is we are close to the exit, ie say a close below $0.54

No position currently but one of many on the list.

http://tinyurl.com/297hze

SiO2 and Moab:

Re: Shorting MA

I was contemplating a short as well.

Coincidentally, yesterday,on BNN after hours -4pm segment, at about 16:39 - Cameron Webster of Sandstone Asset Management distinguished MA from Am Express...he said that MA had a global reach; and it has benefitted from its growth in emerging markets...but, he said, if the chart breaks...he thought it more likely that the chart would break.

There was a dbl bottom break in the PnF chart yesterday.

So, I ponder...about shorting - a general question - but having regard to MA:

the YAHOO stat's on MA -

-98.30% of float held by institutions
-as of dec11, 14.4% of float is short(up from previous month; and I feel certain up more by now)

with the float so 'tied up', does one risk a short squeeze?

as an aside, last weekI identified several retail candidates to short (which dropped 20% in the ensuing couple of days) but I didn't act because I felt vulnerable about the short %age and the free float.

Please, you guys or anyone else with tips and guidance in this area, I am open to education.

regards

joey

Fred thanks for your reply, but I need a bit more of an answer. I will repost my question from yesterday and then pose another question...................................................
I was wondering if someone on this site would be able to provide an answer to a terrible trading mistake I made today. Today I sold 22,500 shares of UXG on a market order ( I now realize that all orders MUST be limit orders). The trade occurred right at the open. I saw the current "ask" price was $3.36. I had assumed the "bid" price would be 1-3% lower. The first share did sell at $3.31. When the last share was sold, it was sold at $3.02. I was very mad. About 30 seconds after my last share was sold, I bought 1 share and it went through at $3.35. Overall, my question is if the "buy" price was lowered by 10% from my first sell to my last sell, why didn't the "ask" price lower by a somewhat equivalent amount. Did the market maker pocket this extra money? Thanks in advance for any insight you can give me on this...................................................
Here is a possible, but unlikely scenario.
I put in a market sell of one Berkshire Hathaway share. I am the only person selling shares of Berkshire Hathaway on this day. There is another person that has a limit buy for one Berkshire Hathaway share at $10.00. Will this order actually be filled. In other words will I have actually sold my one Berkshire Hathaway share (normally $100,000) for $0.01. Once again, thanks for any information.

For those of you who missed the boat on SKF, another opportunity is just around the corner.

Cramer, Kudlow, Moe, Larry and Curly will all be pounding the table to buy financials, reasoning that BAC offering CFC shareholders dog doo-doo for their shares has solved all our financial problems.

See you in Aruba.

All IMHO.

stev1183
I think there is a "price reasonableness" test performed prior to execution of orders to test if ask/bid is in reasonable range( say 10-20%). I use IB

Bull Hunter

Yes all this financial hype and excitement over a buy out at a DISCOUNT in the open market.

What are we coming to, this type of thing usually only happens with Vulture Capitalists scavaging companies in bankruptcy.

Re: shorting MA

I don't look at the short percentages much. I look more at fundamentals and support/resistance. The time to short is when a stock breaks major support as the fundamentals deteriorate - see AXP at $52. If you are shorting on support your odds are not as good even if the fundamentals deteriorate because there usually is a bounce at the least on support. I've made that mistake.

Another strategy is to wait until stocks with bad fundamentals bounce back to the breakdown point as that will now be heavy resistance. I think this will set up on certain stocks as the market rallies here.

I've heard of research that overall market short interest is not particularly high.

FranSix:

a question for you and/or anyone else willing to elucidate:

"would say that a decline in the $US against major commodities such as oil is the culprit of unprofitable gold mines. Then again, those base metals credits are not helping any, either.

Posted by: FranSix at January 10, 2008 2:19 PM"

Why might base metal credits be a culprit?

regards
joey

Interesting blog post on a Canadian small-cap called Belzberg Technologies (BLZ.TO). Can anyone explain the steady deterioration in share price, despite their healthy financials? Only thing I can come up with is some uncertainty re: patents.

http://tinyurl.com/3xed5x

Base metals mixed in with gold production are looked upon as credits, but they have declined in price against the $US so that means they cannot cover the cost of mining, thus a loss must be expressed.

The primary metal to be mined should be gold, with very little base metals mixed in.

Posted by: stev1183 January 11, 2008 11:54 AM

Yes I hear ya, been there done that and learned a long time ago the market will not protect you, its up to you to do that. My lesson years ago was much worse than yours.

The problem with UXG is that it's fairly thin trader, check the market order flow on Quote.com and you will see that most trades are only a few 100 shares at a time. The average daily volume is in the 500K range. I don’t have bid depth on the NYSE but I would bet that all the bids are not in parallel at the front of the line, they are in series backing down from the front bid.

Now as the front bids are chewed up, some others will move up to the front of the line. But in your case a market sell order for 22.5K shares at the open, in context that was a single market sell for 5% of the average daily volume at the open!!. The order would just be filled from the existing bids as best as possible. Now even if you had made it a limit order I'm sure you would have scared the bidders into backing up when they see a larger order on the sell side. But I think you would have eventually been filled thru a bunch of partials.

Buyers and Sellers, supply and demand, move prices and if you have to move a large portion of the average daily volume, in one day !, be careful how you do it.

Just some humble thoughts on the subject.

Good afternoon Bill, and everyone! I was thinking about the Shrub in Chief's excellent new adventure in the Holy Land last night at dinner. Coincidence! Well, I have not read anyone's posts, but I did think that the moron has already started two wars in the middle East and gotten Bhutto killed. Can't the cretin just stop trading already??!!

Re: GSS, they are planning to release their Q4 production numbers next week. It will be important to see if they've worked out the issues with their new BIOX plant and if they've been able to increase production (thereby lowering costs per ounce). A lot of insider buying, including by the outgoing CEO, suggests that good news may be coming IMO.

Hi Stev, I was also run over by that bus, I since learned NEVER place an order to buy/sell at market, their are people that make a living on those type of trades! Also I never trade in the first 30 min of the market opening.
Brian

Unloaded the BMK.V that I bought yesterday at $.465 today at $.61. A one day gain of over 30%! I still think it could run up to $.70 near term easily but the risk/reward is no longer favorable in the extreme short term (unless some unexpected news were to hit - which is out of my control). Will be looking to buy back sub $.50 again.

Also unloaded half of my NOT.V position on the pop above $4 and have subsequently bought back a portion of that around $3.93. Had an order for more in at $3.80 but did not get filled.

Still thinking XOM looks awful and could come crashing through $90 at any moment. It is underperforming on market rallies and failed to make a new high when oil hit $100.

Seamus, are you familiar with MOSAIC (MOS): Phosphates, Potash, Offshore, and Nitrogen. UP 400% in 12 months. Unfortunately our friend JC seems to have just recommended it though :-(

Also, JC says about CFC and BAC: "a shotgun marriage".

It almost seems like sector rotation out there. Big Tech is in the dump and Financial is flying. But big tech may get a bid next week with the MacWorld conference.

Will we climb again after Europe closes? Do our traders try and fake out their traders? There must be something to that and also why the FED releases decisions after their market closes.

Rob.

Bill Hunter, LMAO, ROFL!!!!!

Steve 1183: It depends on the liquidity, cause of the selling, and your own temperament.:)

When the market gaps down as well as the stock...if there in no specific news that you can find about UXG that is causing the gap down, you might want to wait till the stock fills the gap..if its a highly liquid traded stock..which it doesnt seems to be...you can then sell at higher prices if it fills the gap.

Regards to limit or market..if there is a market plunge...( LArge TRaers sell then ask questions later..capital protection is paramount then )market orders may actually make sense...if it isnt a market plunge ( where all indices and stocks in that sector are simultaneously falling apart)...limit orders makes more sense to get a better fill and you dribble your orders out under limit orders.

Under what conditions you decide which type of orders to use...may actually end up depending on your temperament and disposition about the stock...

Billy, I have been doing the same with NOT and UNG. Sold UNG at 40.40, have been buying back at 39.40s. Storage of NG has been coming down. Analyst on BNN thinks that with current weather, storage will come down further and to watch if storage drops below 2 Tera CFs in February (currently 2.75 Tcf).

BTW, this was one case where averaging down worked. Started buying UNG at 39 last month, kept buying with every point drop, until 34. Now it is returning a big profit. UNG is not your average stock though, IMO.

Craig - NOOOOOOOOO!!!! Pleawe no 1000 point drops. That will set up a huge bottom and a bounce and how many of us will be able to scale in to that sort of drop. I'm on the short side, you know that, but let's do this right.

Wave - Chinese stocks are high end trading! They will beat you, but they will teach you. Do not give up if you want to take your trading to the high level!

FXP- out at 73.49...market may keep on tanking, but feels right taking profits here->who knows what 2pm brings today?

Si02

Yes, I'm familiar with MOS. Great company .. . it's had a good run RSI7 daily dipped below 70 on the 4th, now (66.7)headed back up . . recently announced booming earnings . . to questions about North American slowdown, they responded about China, India . . I like it on pullbacks . . .

Others in this area on the list CF, AGU, TRA related TNH (check the chart & dividend--woulda, coulda, shoulda) SQM (not as liquid, big bid/ask spreads)and the big one POT considered best of breed by some. POT could be an acquirer of some smaller companies.

No present positions in any of the above at this time, but monitoring. Looks like opportunity missed with AGU bouncing off the 20 SMA this a.m., but my attention was elsewhere.

Continuum Resources (CNU) kicking me in the chops again. What's up with this company?

Faded rally in CMA a little while ago. As soon as it touched the upper resistance line I placed a put. Let's see if it drops back to support now.

Seamus don't forget he ETF's MOO and DBA. DBA having a fine day.

Si02 - also had a similar run with UNG, started buying in 37s, averaged in another portion in 34s, made a sale on the pop to 38, and averaged in again on the next day swoon down to mid-36s.

Cleared the table on UNG at $39.10 yesterday before storage numbers. Just didn't want to risk a negative reaction and I figured upside was limited and don't want to be part of any reversal. Looking to get back in on a dip but not going to chase a commodity for sure.

Happy trading.

AGU has tender offer pending on UAPH

Craig CHSCP reported RECORD earnings

http://tinyurl.com/2e9sex

Disclosure: Long CHSCP
Note: illiquid preferred stock paying @ 8% dividend

geckojb I see it as well as ETNs RJA & JJG, JJA discussed yesterday here w/ jasper

Long: RJA

Si02 - as far as averaging down works for trading, I've found its best to set some ground rules for myself. When I begin a position, I try to set a target on 1) time and 2) price for my first allowable average down.

For instance with UNG I might make a rule that if the trade initally turns against if I buy in at $39, that I am not allowed to add to the position until either 1) one week has passed or 2) the price has fallen below $37. This kind of rule will keep me from thinking I am a genius and load the boat too full in the short term.

----------

XOM teetering on the brink, sub-90 will be the kiss of death this time! Still waiting for the powers that be to do a pump job on FSLR so I can short it into smithereens!

QLD-> WTH, 83.10 for a trade...

Finger Lakes,

Been thinking the same thing. Tech seems to be grudgingly giving it up and the money flowing into financials.

Finally being rewarded for my patience with QID. Soon time to replace those sold SKF shares.

Regards

Billy, I have been short fslr three days. The pump job was done this morning when it went green vs - 100, -19, -8 on the market.

Just got back from my run and to my surprise it looks like everything is still trending south. I wonder what the people that bought some of those "on sale" banks this morning are thinking now. ;-)

Wow, if people are reigning in spending at McDonalds then we maybe we are in for much worse then most people imagine. I would think consumers would switch from Applebees to Mickey D's.

Calvino,

Nice work on FSLR. After taking the ride down from the $271 to $228, I missed my opportunity the next day to sell short again in the low $240s, thinking it would get bid up closer to $250. With the market seeming to tread along support here, I will not be looking to sell it short until we see some significant strength.

These bear market rally's will continue to be fast swift and unforgiving to overleveraged shorts.

Buyers showing back up....off the lows..and here they come..

Is anyone holding anything over the weekend?

today's close will be a tough call->rally into the green (very possible), or steep drop (ditto)...if i had to bet, would go with a rally, but smart money will stay on the sidelines->...

Going to keep the Gold Miner Short... long term.. until next week.

And Circuit City's going to $10... heard it from me.. :)

I am holding both HGD & CC.

Sold 1/3 of my BMK at .65. Still hold a full position.

Fred - CNU Continuum Resources

I could find NO news on CNU, which is a favorite of Kaimu and Aussieontop. CNU is nearing its weekly lower Bollinger Band!

If you're a shareholder, why not phone the company's IR and ask what's up?

We'll fold any answer into the the current project: "panning for golden juniors" ....

jockATbillcara.com

Stayin short...

And will sleep well this weekend...Not worried a bit...

FranSix, g034, Tbar,


Re: Gold


How about the following scenario?

-> Short-term pullback from $898-$900 (golden-ratio and round-number resistance)


-> Medium-term target of $930ish (top of long-term channel) -- see second chart at

http://tinyurl.com/2as3ny


-> Longer-term target of $1,020 (flag)


It's no coincidence that the golden ratio works as well as Fibonacci retracements do:

"Johannes Kepler observed that the ratio of consecutive Fibonacci numbers converges. He wrote that 'as 5 is to 8 so is 8 to 13, practically, and as 8 is to 13, so is 13 to 21 almost', and concluded that the limit approaches the golden ratio, phi."

http://tinyurl.com/29ntlf

-- which I found by following g034's link above.

Keeping short position in CFC Feb08 5 puts;
Keeping a small long position open, with tight stop, in NWA (they are the slightly more likely merger target for Delta);
Keeping a long position in EXPD (international freight forwarder just upgraded today by JPM)

XLF is reversing. Looks like the crowd from this morning are having buyer's remorse.

Jock,
I prefer to use email and just sent CNU the frollowing message: "I am a shareholder. I have XXXXXX shares at an average cost of .XX per share. Frankly, I'm quite concerned with the steep decline in share price and the absence of any news from the company. Today the stock touched its 52 week low. I would like to know when shareholders can expect a resolution to the negotiations with Minera and an update from CNU on drilling and other operational progress?

that would be following not frollowing

Re: Gold

I am counting on seasonality to confirm those numbers, franklin. They look very good, its just the timing of those numbers. But keep in mind that oil prices ($wtic) have completely ignored their seasonality in the fourth quarter, so it may very well be that bullion prices may do the same.

Out of FXP @74.90 and QID @ 45.05

Still waiting to dump DIG...maybe a Monday rebound will allow me.

FXP->not spiking much on this downdraft, which leads me to hesitate opening any new shorts...

nice move(s), isaiah...

2nd

consider a Monday bounce in FXI?

XLF volume almost double the daily avg. It sure does not look like the normal crowd.

This is one broken market.

But look at the volume in the past 15 minutes. Looks like they're doing their darndest to pull it out of its tailspin.

QID breaking down as VXN chills.

The PPT is in the building.

Verrrrry small position FXI @171
will sell before end of day for gas $ :^)

Last exit out of Vegas for those who are vertically challenged . . .

QLD- alright, out at 83.31 and staying flat (except for LT positions) for the weekend...

Opened a small short position in RandGold (GOLD) as I feel the sector is momentarily overbought.

This just came across the newswire regarding CNU repricing executive options. Doesn't send a very optimistic picture to me. http://tinyurl.com/2skmvs

Well, well, well. Run out of gas so soon?

isaiah- no, i'm going to call it a week (may have been my best week ever on a ST basis)->no need to tempt fate...all flat except for LT positions (which include HGD)...

Isaiah,
Look for FXI to bounce at 163. That's where it tends to go to so no point in buying in beforehand.

I did alright but my timing was not the best today and lots of outside noise/influences.

Very interesting interplay between the XLF which the powers that be were trying like hell to rally and the SKF which was trying like hell to rally and the DJIA that was pressuring both.
An interesting standoff.

Glad you had a good week 2nd. I'm glad the weekend is here. It will take a couple days to get my shoulders right and to figure out where the heck we're going from here.

As Bill said, there's nothing wrong with seeing the glass half empty in a bear market.

To all posters:

My appreciation for all of you posters today... glass 1/2 empty to be sure as I watch and admire your ins and outs and comments.

Went to all cash last week and ACATing from Scottrade to IB this week.

Anyone with IB: let me know your favorite features, tips, etc.

Jock: I would be happy to participate/help with the jr miners project but am ever so cognizant of what I don't know. Is there a template of info that a "grunt" could use to gather info/contribute?

Bill: Kudos and thanks for all you do to help this community learn to fish.

Rob

My timing hasn't been the best lately either. This week was tough. But I bought some APPL calls into the close so Steve Jobs can save Tech once again next week. It will be interesting to see whether the good news from him will offset the bad news from the banks. I also wonder if some of the banks scheduled their earnings for next week for that reason.

If Steve Jobs fails to impress, that may be the final nail in the coffin for the market and we'll see Craig's 1000 point down day.

It sure was an exciting week!! I'll bet next week will be just as great and hopefully more profitable.

You intra-day traders out there are amazing. If I ever attempted any of that I would lose big.
Good luck next week everyone. Time for a cold one!!

Rob.

RobBoss
IB allows a paper trade account. It is good for a beginner to get to know all the features. IB is very efficient and no non sense once you get used to it
IB has archived web seminars on how to use TWS
I am using IB for 4 years, no problems during EST trading hours
Good Luck

Anyone encouraged that the financials were strong today while the broader market cratered? Aren't the financials supposed to lead a recovery?

or are we looking at a CFC induced blip?

Financials were firm all day. XLF is 8% off the lows. Looks like a surprise rate cut is coming. It is dangerous being short or long here.

Yes, I watched it all day.

Whenever the market was starting to really tank the XLF would get gassed. While materials, industrials, tech, and energy were getting sold XLF was being used to bouy the market.

It was obvious there was rotation into financials, but late in the day they gave most of it up. I expect this is where we would see any assault by the bulls if there is to be a rally.

Not encouraging so much as verification of manipulation/HB&B at work. Do you think J6P and Mom and Pop were buying the financials today?

FL, personally there is now way I'd go long on thus market, unless on a straddle. It can crater at any time (and it could also be temporarily rescued by some Paulson/Bush/buyout scheme). I do not think this market can possibly rally, but what do I know. Still, it is dangerous to stay overnight. As with 2nd, had my best week ever, actually, my best day in quite some time. I unloaded most of my puts and FXP calls in late PM, just kept some profits running.

BTW, I made a bit of a mistake yesterday and bought an FXP Jan 65 Call for 5.50. I was already holding 75s and did not look at the open interest of the 65s. It turned out there were only 21 of them! There were no bids on it today (bids were 0), but it still sold for 9.70, which meant the buyer paid almost no premium on it. So, did well, but taught me to pay more attention.

franklin at January 11,

A pullback is sure possible,what bothers me is this new high has touched the trendline running from the oct 1999 high through the MAy 2006 high. This being the third touch,and it is a paralell trendline with the nov 2001 and May/July 2005 lows.

Yet another set of trendlines uses the 2 lows in 2001 that began this bull market.When this gradient of line is used off the may 2006 high it intersects with the nov 2007 high at 848 and this weeks low appears to be a test of that trendline.This trendline alsoholds the 2001 highs and 2004/5 lows so I think it is important.
So many ways to look at it, perhaps this trendline will be support now at 857ish but that flag breakout out has not been tested yet and the gold market seems to like to test all breakouts.

G.S. is at or near record lows in it's short position for the past 2 yrs I beleive, so it's tough to imagine to much weakness and they just told the public to short gold a few weeks ago. Shame on them and the sec. On the other hand cnbc was pretty vocal on the gold bull this week,not something I like to see.The risk as a long is much higher now but that flag po is sure attractive.

That probably doesnt help at all

Si02 - regarding FXP, I would hedge with options on FXI, i.e. instead of buying a call on FXP, buy a put on FXI (adjusted for position size). As you have already realized, the last place you want to be trapped is in an illiquid options market and forced to hold close to expiration for the market to be liquid enough. For others out there who are new to options, its better than learning the hard way (like many of us did).

Also I would never use a market order to buy or sell an option. Might as well just snail mail the check right to the market maker and save brokers fee on top!

Yes, I like it when Ron Paul challenges Bernanke on the Fed policies. However, he does have other aspects to his character background.

New Republic magazine online had this story on
Ron Paul

http://tinyurl.com/3caypg

Seamus,
First, I'm Canadian so my opinion is moot. CNN broadcast most of the New Republic material throughout the day yesterday. Ron Paul's response is that he didn't write the stuff, wasn't aware of it at the time and that this it is just an ugly propoganda campaign being used to smear him. I know that if a newsletter was published with my name on it my friends would inform me of any controversial content. Thus, I might like Ron Paul's economics but, I believe that he was fully aware of the content in his newsletters whether he wrote the content himself or not.

My goodness can this be correct?

"Charlie Gasparino reported on CNBC that sources inside the firm have told him the Citigroup write downs could be $24 billion when earnings are announced next Tuesday".

News cycle for a Friday night sure seems busy..

"Former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin and several prominent economists Thursday backed a temporary fiscal stimulus of around $100 billion designed to spur job growth and consumer spending as the economy flirts with recession.
Supporters said Congress should move quickly to enact precisely targeted tax cuts and spending to jump-start the flagging economy. Among the ideas discussed: one-time individual tax rebates and an extension of unemployment insurance beyond the current 26 weeks".

"The New York Stock Exchange on Thursday said it has contacted Countrywide Financial Corp to make a statement due to unusual activity in the mortgage lender's stock.

Countrywide declined to comment, the NYSE said in a statement".

Nothing new here, and I am not a Beck fan, but nice to see someone bringing up these issues... "Financial Tsunami" from 01-09-08:
http://tinyurl.com/2f7cgf

I have been home all day with a viral lung infection. It hurts to move but really I am just bored so I have decided to post news tonight.

P.S. Congrats 2nd Ave on a great trading week.

"Citi getting funding from China Development Bank and Prince Alwaleed bin Talal".

They probably are only confessing up to whatever reserve capital requirements are and the write off in a perfect world would be much higher.

Sio2,
I know I'm crazy. But sometimes crazy makes money.

Rob.

It's an election year. They have to save the economy and the market. Or else they won't like the results of the elections. The head of Bank of England even stated that his Deficit is 3% of their GDP and he can do no more but ours is only 1.5% of our GDP so we have plenty of wiggle room.

Rob.

RobBoss - Sure, you can help us "panning for golden juniors". And, yes I am working on a template which will make it easy and fun to "adopt" a few juniors, and rate them.

If we can cue up juniors well, Aussieontop, Kaimu and others with in-depth knowledge can specialize, and we can really "break new ground" ...

Just drop me an email at:

jockATbillcara.com

Thanks !

Fransix -

Good point about the base metals'impact upon gold miners. Can you spell out which gold miners are suffering - i.e. which have lots of base metals in their production? their reserves yet to be mined?

thanks in advance.

jockATbillcara.com

Fred

I agree with you. I tried to present it in a neutral way even though there are positions of his with which I definitely disagree.

Bill and fellow Caristas,

Tonight, toasting a glass to New Zeelander Sir Edmund Hilary who passed away. Famous for being the first one to climb Everest, he really brought a great deal to the Nepalese people establishing clinics, schools, teachers. A class act all the way. Here's to you Sir!!!

He always shared credit with sherpa Tenzing Norgay who was with him on the climb and was a lifetime friend.

http://tinyurl.com/ypn4dy

thank you, geckojb- and congrats SiO2->bill really nailed it when he predicted serious gains in january...

2nd_ave

GO 2ND ! ! !You're beat "The Man" [HB&B] this week. Good job!

Sounds like I need to be looking over your shoulder next week. So I can make some of that "MAD MONEY" too. Enjoy your weekend my friend.

:^)

RE: underlyig bid today in the financials...

WSJ reporting more cash infusion , sorry wise investment, by Alaweed and CDC into C.

Good stuff 2nd, well done. Thanks for all the ideas.

BTW...

Bank of America Credit Risk Increases on Countrywide Purchase

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of Bank of America Corp. defaulting rose to the highest since at least November 2001 after the biggest U.S. bank by market value said it will rescue Countrywide Financial Corp.

Credit-default swaps tied to the bonds of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America increased 9 basis points to 89 basis points, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group in New York, suggesting deteriorating perceptions of credit quality.

Bank of America may take on too many liabilities in its $4 billion acquisition of Countrywide, the money-losing mortgage lender besieged by bankruptcy speculation, the contracts show. Bank of America would inherit the ``heightened'' credit risk of Countrywide's home equity loans and option adjustable-rate mortgages, analysts led by David Hendler at bond research firm CreditSights Inc. said in a report today.

``There's probably a little doubt here,'' Brian Yelvington, a strategist at CreditSights in New York, said in an interview. ``They say the due diligence is done, but is it?''

Moody's Investors Service today said it may cut Bank of America's A financial strength rating. Countrywide's ``volatile mortgage asset valuations'' and pending litigation may weigh on the company's already-strained capital position. The ratings company said it may raise Countrywide Home Loans' Baa3 ranking.

RobBoss
I opened an IB account this week. I can't say whats best but the chat help feature works for me. And I do like the archived web classes. Was undecided today whether to sell the st positions i took. I'm not a day trader but in one week am up $130. I bought WAG, WM on the rumour and PDA.
ns6010 can you explain "IB allows a paper trade account".
peace from north puget sound
Gray

Scary view from Bill Gross:
http://tinyurl.com/2mmw3z

Photogray

IB allows you to set up Paper Trader, their simulated trading program. This can be done only after an account is funded as the simulation mimics the same permissions, data feeds, etc that you have signed up for.

Info at IB Menu Bar "Software" - 'software highlights', then scroll down to Paper Trader

Regards

Good Morning and happy Saturday to all.
Thought you all might find this interesting if you haven't seen it already.
http://tinyurl.com/37hkh3

Interesting situation with the financials.
According to the Stockcharts.com market summary, the XLF closed Friday up .33% and broker/dealers up .21%, while the bullish percentage for financials $BPFINA was up 23.08%. You could sure see the volume coming into the XLF on Friday, especially during or just after big pushes down. At one point we were 300 down and it was in part the XLF (or certainly large components of the XLF) that was rallying back up.

Another interesting point is the $NYLOW. It has dropped from a near 70 RSI to 47 and the chart has fallen through the 50DMA and stopped right on a trendline drawn off the previous two lows.
Note also the MACD has turned down at a rather extreme turn, intersected, and looks ready to cross down. Remember, down on the low chart is up to us.
See http://tinyurl.com/2f78g9

How interesting that while we are at or below the August lows the $NYLOW shows us NOT making new lows but in fact rallying. I don't' think we've seen any capitulation or panic, so how do you think this happened?

How does $NYLOW show a rally and the indices show us at or near the previous lows after something like 8 negative sessions?

If we are to test 12,000 then the little dogleg developed at the lower trendline will be respected and we will see even more new lows.

It appears we are at a crossroad.

I encourage discussion and critiques.

Craig to add don't forget the vix hasn't been able to break thru the mid 20's showing no capitulation there either. I wouldn't mind seeing a little relief rally here happen for two days then the selling begin all over again.