Bill, if the Fed does a 'surprise' .50 bps rate cut and another one at the end-of-month meeting, what does that do to your market breakdown scenario? Or are rate cuts impossible right now given the rise in inflation?

Good morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

Have a fun time on the rollercoaster.

NOT.V alert-> ST traders may wish to take at least partial profits at the open...

FXP->bid/ask both back below 80 (craig appears to have correctly called FXI 163 as a ST bottom)...

Reposting this call for interest -

"Many of us make New Years Resolutions to improve ourselves. The improvement may be in the form of a habit, health improvement or work related. I tend to hit all three, results vary ;-) . So, with that in mind, I'd like to remind everyone of Bill's search for traders to join his Trading Group. This is an opportunity to trade with some excellent traders.

From his December 24th Daily Report:

"Trading Group

It is the responsibility of the Cara Virtual Trading Group to ensure that the best ideas from the Research Group and proprietary trading signals are implemented on a 24/7 basis. As traders, our main job is to maximize alpha through execution and proper risk management with the end result providing client accounts with significantly enhanced returns on a risk adjusted basis.

Trader Recruiting

To satisfy global coverage on a 24/7 basis, we are currently looking for 5 traders in the Americas, Europe and Asia/Pacific regions. As the group grows, our goal is to have traders in Chicago/NY, Singapore/Hong Kong and London/Dublin or other cities with major trading activity. Trading support will also come from Vivian Watts, head trader at EFG Bank, Nassau, Bahamas.

The key attributes that we are seeking include:

• First and foremost, we are looking for traders from within the community. Cara Trading Advisors (Bahamas) Ltd. is comprised of high quality individuals from within the Cara Community. CTAB is unique in that the trading, research and technology groups will be working much closer than traditional money management firms in meeting our common goals.
• The second key attribute is reliability. The trading group works as a team, handing off the portfolio from one team to another as the clock turns through the regions. All team members must trust the others to trade the portfolio during their designated time, this is mandatory.
• Traders must be proficient in equity trading. They must also have a solid foundation in option and futures trading in order to “get up to speed” in a day or two.
• The traders must have experience in managing risk within the portfolios. Proper risk management will be paramount to the success of the portfolios.

The challenges of handling order flow with stealth, maintaining a reasonable workflow, seeking out hidden liquidity in dark pools for best execution, accessing geographically diverse markets and post trade analytics to instantly access portfolio allocations will be met through the CTAB technology group, Interactive Brokers, EFG and others."

I am helping Bill with this, so if there is any interest please contact Bill in confidence at bcara [at] billcara.com and I will get back to you.

Posted by: g034 at January 2, 2008 9:36 AM

Good Morning 2nd, Do you have realtime bid/ask for NOT.V? I see we have positive drill results, is that the news you are looking at?

Seems like they want to rebound this week, but tech still looks puny.
Feels like December. Will play the bounce and look for opportunities to re-enter ultras.

Hope your connectivity issues are resolved, I'll need your help!

NOT.V- pre-mkt bid/ask ranged from 4.07 to 4.24 if using fidelity...

Good morning everybody

This could be a key week as far as the direction of the stock market is concerned. The problems related to the housing market and the subprime implosion seemed to be coming to a head. A number of long-term charts are also beginning to turn down.

I have just published my regular weekly article highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

Here is the link to the "Words from the Wise": http://tinyurl.com/27pfzw

Thank you, no real time data for me on NOT.

If you see it make a big push please post.

This bounce doesn't have the feel of any real strength. We'll see....

If interested, we can provide you with real time quotes of NOT over the public skype chat if you wish, just ask and someone will reply in real-time http://nexalogic.com/skype.html

FXP- scaling into a new position at 78.61...

Does anyone have any idea how long this 'bump' by the ppt might last? Should this be able to scare me to take profits is what I'm asking in a nutshell.

Being away from trading for a few months really doesn't help your nerves.

taking a position in LUV (11.56/11.68), adding to MU (6.43/6.49)->not thinking ST here...

Bringing all the boys out. Fed speaker schedule this week:

Mon Atlanta Fed Pres. Lockhart

Tues Phil Fed Pres. Plosser

Wed STL Fed Pres. Poole

Thu Fed Chairman Bernanke
KC Fed Pres. Hoenig

Fri Fed Governor Mishkin
Boston Fed Pres Rosengren

Hand sitting again pays off.

dropping below 12,800

Geez I leave for a few weeks and all hell breaks loose. Saw the cover of Barrons proclaiming worst start to the year since 1932. Tried trading a little from Puerto Rico but that was difficult with a supposedly cutting edge system running 24 minutes behind on Thursday and Friday.returned this morning to find my computer crashed. Guess gold and oil are the only things not crashing. Anyway just wanted to quickly note that a very reliable indicator is warning not to get to carried away shorting. Being at a important support zone, I could see the PPT jamming futures beneath this area and then BUY BUY BUY to create a spike reversal. The 5day average of the TRIN has reached a level not often seen and can lead to significant short term upside action. Sellers beware.

Having a good morning so far. Looks like Friday offered a good opportunity to clear some shorts and scale back in on todays bounce. Ended up covering half of my short on FSLR near Friday close at $244. Shorted it all again today at $253.

Also added to DUG at $36.43 this morning and opened a position in EEV at $77.6.

PNP.TO (PNPFF)- taking a position at 4.10...

FXP- out at 81.27...

That bounce is looking like a flop. It did offer a little bit of a re-entry into FXP but I'm already stuffed full of FXP.

I'm a bit surprised at today's market action, thinking that the financials and techs would bounce off Friday's selloff.

All the King's horses and all the King's men ..........

Wow FSLR already down to $235 from my short at $253 this morning. Down with all this solar power buffonery.

FXP-> looking for another entry, as i suspect we now shift into temporary rally mode...

Traders are starting to focus on derivative counterparty risk, as we have been talking about here for months:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/C-jpm-bac-WB-wfc/index/a/15423

My take on his "driving force" comment is panic is possible if enough participants focus on this issue.

This reminds me of Goldman's $4 billion profit on CDS trading. Who is on the losing end of that trade and will Goldman ever collect on it?

For those who are unsure which way the markets will be moving in the short term, here are some index straddles i computed this AM, showing the max. move required to make the position profitable in January. Moving either way up or down by the percentage shown makes the position profitable.

IWM C72/P71 4.55%
XLF C27/P27 6.51%
DIA C127/P127 3.60%
QQQQ C48/P47 4.46%
SPY C141/P141 3.74%

The actual move required is less as there will be residual value on the wrong side and if you cut that side early.

GLD/WGW sold this AM on projected pullback/USD strength (temporarily).

Traded/shorted SKF, traded QID. I think Bill's call of 12,000 then 10 looks to be playing out.

I expect to use dramamine on the trip.

I'm surprised the market can't seem to rally at all. It makes me think the whole month of December was just window dressing so fund and pension managers could have respectable 2007 returns. And now they're letting it go because they have plenty of time to make a good 2008 return.

If the market can't rally in the next couple of days, we may see the huge selloff, where the circuit breakers stop trading, this week.

The will also make the 7th down day in a row if everything stay down. I think it could go either way from here.

Rob.

Looking at the intraday chart, how much of a tell will it be if we bounce down off of 12800? If the support line fails, and then we even bounce down off of it...

What happened to GROW on no news? Has the rollercoaster left the tracks?
peace
Gray

craig- FXP->back below 80...

This morning's trade looks familiar to me - suck in the shorts with an accelerating selloff and then build a rally off support. Hopefully they pull it off for a few days so we can add to shorts at more favorable prices.

FXP- scaling back in at 79.67...

CROX is one of the leaders going down the tubes. Since Thursday it has dropped from 37 to 28. There is news about the EU rejecting it's unique patent on it's design.

That doesn't seem like big news though. there have been plenty of look-alike Crocs around for awhile.

Rob.

Photogray

RE: GROW

I think many would agree the US Global Investors has had a great run with its metals and resources funds - as the size of the funds grows, so did the management fees that GROW collected. Bill has also been complimentary on the management skills of Frank Holmes

But, in a bear market, a fund manager like GROW will see increasing redemptions - good fund or bad fund, money will likely be flowing out of mutual funds and into safer assets (cash/bonds) and make net assets under investment shrink and this management fees will also shrink.

I would take a wait and see approach with GROW. Could be a great value pickup after some dust settles but too risky and vulnerable to overall market conditions right now.

2nd - Be careful. FXP 10-min EMA(25) has crossed below SMA(50) and is approaching SMA(100). Suggests possible shorting opportunity, especially if it gets back up to 81 or so later on today.

What is so good about SLM's new chairman to send it's stock up 13%?

Trading seems like the sellers still have alot more strength than the buyers currently.

everytime the Dow and Nasdaq run above 12,800 and 2500 they get quickly sucked back down.

Maybe too many of us retail traders were expecting a bounce so HB&B is putting the screws to us.

Rob.

Grabbed some MCD 57.46 as it went thru 30 RSI7 daily. More competition for SBUX w/ barrista program.

Si02 thanks for the straddle info .... timely

Photogray:
Re: GROW

see news on Jefferies Group JEF

http://tinyurl.com/2l4bq3

Sitting on hands,

Stu

OG- thank you->maybe i'll just play it back to 81...

The new Energy Bill requires that consumers must buy "compact flourescent light bulbs" by 2014 and bans incandescent bulbs. I am seeing some "push" for buying Philips and/or GE stocks as the benefactors, but I think there is another yet-to-be-heard side of the Electorate on the basis of guidelines from US Environmental Protection Agency (as published in ConsumerReports):

"What to do if a CFL breaks or smokes:

Compact fluorescent bulbs contain small amounts of mercury, a neurotoxin. If a bulb breaks, follow these instructions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency:

* Open the windows and leave the room for at least 15 minutes.

* For hard floors, don't vacuum or sweep the mess. Instead, wear disposable rubber gloves and use cardboard or stiff paper to scoop up the debris. Then clean the area with a damp paper towel.

* For rugs, use sticky tape to pick up any compact fluorescent bulb fragments and powder. Then vacuum the area if necessary.

* Place the debris and cleanup materials into a plastic bag and seal it. Put that bag into another plastic bag and seal it.

* If your area allows it and no other disposal or recycling options exist, place compact fluorescent bulbs in the trash outside. Wash your hands.

* After vacuuming the area for the first time, remove bag or empty and wipe bin. Put bag or debris into a plastic bag and seal it. Then put that bag into another plastic bag and seal it. Place in the trash outside. Wash your hands."

Additionally, I have seen that it is recommended by some for the consumer to physically take the waste to a Hazardous Waste site - mine is 45min up the road from me.

Now, if one has small children in the house, or cats, or dogs who just might knock things over - ? Eventually, parents and/or pet owners will be heard on the issue. -jmho-

SEED big range today 9.23 to 11.24 and still bouncing around.

No position.

Seamus..RE SBUX

I don't think that the Starbucks customers are the same customers that frequent MacDonalds...

IMO,,,the starbucks crowd is eating at Panera bread and Corner Bakery...

MacDonalds will hurt Dunkin Donuts in the short term...

IMO...More people addicted to caffine at Macdonalds will lead those people to search for other coffee choices and some may migrate to Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts...

All I see are new customers addicted to a caffine fix...I LIKE SBUX AT THIS LEVEL and that is why I sold some puts...

FXP-> out for a loss at 78.70...

FXP-> out for a loss at 78.70...

Can someone explain why QQQQ Bid 48.36 > Ask 48.31 Few minutes ago the spread was as much as 25 cents

FXP- taking another swing at 78.44...

2ndave
Now a sporadic reader, at best...but personally, did take a small position in the canadian gold bear etf. Figured that Bill's guidance was early and the pog has gotten ahead, and worth something of a hedge. Nice liquidity in this etf.

Are you still holding...thoughts on this etf?
thanks!

Spot,
So it seems one of the solutions to people using too much power, Compact Fluorescent bulbs, pose a greater environmental danger than the benefits we receive from conserving power.

It reminds me of the scandals over the gas additive MTBE that replaced leaded gas. It leached into ground water at far higher levels than the lead in leaded gas ever did.

The yo-yo market is back up again. Today's low may be the short-term bottom if we can close higher.

Rob.

jasper- still holding HGD.TO with a basis of 11 and change->no intention (at this time) of selling at a loss...

The mercury issue with CFC bulbs isn't new or really that troubling IMO. Fluorescent bulbs have been around for a long time. They are still used all the time in business, hospitals, daycares, schools, etc. I don't remember hearing about anybody being poisoned by four foot fluorescent bulbs breaking, so I kind of doubt if it's that big of a concern with a 4 inch one. I personally use CFCs and have dropped one before. You just make sure the area has ventilation(the mercury will vaporize when the tube breaks)and clean up the mess with a damp cloth/paper towel to get any traces that are left. The glass going everywhere is harder to clean up in my opinion. When those suckers shatter they go everywhere.

Eventually CFCs will be replaced by LED bulbs. They are just a bit pricey at the moment. I will likely switch to them slowly over the next year. Aside from the price, getting the light from an LED "spread around" is the only other problem. They tend to emit light in just one direction so you have to use dispersing lenses. The energy break down is pretty impressive:
incandescent bulb 60W
CFC 15W
LED 1-3W

It's just a matter of the price per bulb coming down to make it affordable.
http://www.ccrane.com/lights/led-light-bulbs/index.aspx

Geologix has made a new discovery in Peru and has immediately moved it to project status based on potential:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/080107/200801070434778001.html?.v=1

Trading range for FXP/FXI has become extremely tight...

might that be it for today's rally?

Sanity provided by Zenob.

We've only had flourescent lighting for decades now.....

These are just COMPACT versions with bulb/ballast to fit standard socket.

There is no new environmental threat from flourescent lighting.

Thanks for the link to the LED bulbs. I do think they are much more promising than compact Fluorescent. I have a couple of LED flashlights and they are alot brighter than regular bulbs.

This rally is pretty weak so far. It seems like the big traders are still on the sidelines or short the market.

Rob.

Bill

What's your thoughts on this...

“In Faber’s opinion, ‘the gold bull market will come to an end when Sovereign Wealth Funds – sick and tired of their investments in financial stocks – will finally purchase gold – probably at above $3,000 per ounce.’”
from
Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog

Holding HGD @ 11.07...

2x inverse = 2wice the fun.

isaiah- take a look at the 1-minute intraday chart for QQQQ->volume seems to favor the sellers->opening a position in QID at 42.50...

The Dow and S&P both nearly hit their November lows today. But where is the strong buying?

Rob.

2nd_BOS - Nice re-entry on FXP. Might consider taking profits at/near 80.40, confluence (right word?) of EMA(25) & SMA(100), should it rise that far.

2nd

Thanks for the heads up.... will be watching for a good entry point...

Just about ready to sell off the FXP. Took a little ride up from 78.50

Basketguy . . . just returned, actually stepped out and ran down the street to pick up a coffee at where else but SBUX!

Don’t disagree with your theory.

I think there will be some more downside, so I’m also looking at SBUX puts to sell. Can see it dropping to 15 (possibly lower), but as a long term position at a level like that, it would be hard to beat and a great entry level IMO.

I'm in FXP at 79.45 as this rally seems dead in the water

Rob.

Zenob/Finger Laks - Yes, I agree with most of what you say. Yours are very rational responses. The real issues in consumer purchases, I think however, are the issues of price, convenience, and safety. Price for CFL's is high (very), convenience is a question mark (outdoor lights are slow in cold weather/closet lights must be replaced more often than the advertised lifetime for the bulbs), and safety is not often rationally approached by the American consumer when children are involved (especially with lawyers lurking about).

Time will tell. I too use CFL's in select locations, but not in all. I have no positions in mentioned stocks.

seeing some wide/wild swings in bids...

Seamus...

Stopped at MacDonalds for my FREE MONDAY COFFEE...

Coulda saved yourself 3.00 today..:^)

I currently use alot of CFl's as well but really want to switch to LED's when they become more affordable.

If I was building a new house I would wire it with fiberoptics which would be lit with LED's. There are quite a few houses run like that in the Corning, NY area. I know one retired engineer from Corning who runs all the light for his house on one hundred watt bulb with the light projected through the entire house with Fiber Optic tubes.

That would be some serious energy savings.

I don't think the market can dip down to 12,800 and 2500 too many more times before it really drops.

Rob.

Could Lockhart's speech in a few minutes be the catalyst for the strong buying everyone was looking for?

basketguy

Not quite. It was a gift card someone gave me for the holidays! LOL!

CFCs do suck if you use them outside in the cold. It's just like the old lights in the garage, you throw the switch and they flicker and shine real feeble until they build up enough warmth to brighten up. Also another thing to watch for is the color of the light. You can get them now in either that sickly fluorescent white or a nice subdued yellow like a normal incandescent. The white color was a big turn off for me when they first came out.

I don't know if I'd bank on CFC bulbs being that widespread though. As I said I firmly believe that LEDs will totally replace "regular" light bulbs in the next decade or so. As such the CFCs will end up as the red headed step child as it were of the light bulb family. I could be wrong and the price on the LEDs may stay high, but if that price does come down, the CFCs are in trouble.

2nd

Have you entered QID yet?

Bush speaks at 2PM and some are speculating that he may unveil some kind of stimulus package. It could incite buying interest.

How about ETrade? It went below three bucks today and is currently at 3.05. It seems like they must be worth more than that as an acquisition target but I'm still not buying it.

Rob.

Same story as last few weeks: market's technicals are still very weak (comparing strongest stocks to weakest stocks) so any rallies should be limited in scope and time.

Value players in today buying after Friday's big declines so may take a bit before the downtrend renews itself.

Has anyone thought about buying DIG today?

If any sort of rally occurs I would expect it would be led by the engery sector.

Anyone disagree or agree?

QID- adding at 42.10...

Zenob:

Re LED -

investment ideas -

Cree Inc.: A Shining Example of LED Industry Efficiency
http://seekingalpha.com/article/56113-cree-inc-a-shining-example-of-led-industry-efficiency

Wow, is there a transcript for the Atlanta's Fed 'speech'? I want to check if I heard him right.

Isaiah,
I think oil has to come down to take off some inflationary pressure. If the government is really trying to save the economy they need to focus on bringing commodities down and the dollar up. They may not have enough ammo to accomplish it but I think it's what they'd like to see happen.

Rob.

Isaiah,
I would think oil has to drop here if the government really wants to save the economy. So I'm assuming they are focusing their ammo on lowering commodities.

Otherwise the FED will have to raise rates instead of lower them to ward off the inflation from $90-100 oil.

Rob.

Sorry about the double post. I got the server error.

What did he say in the FED speech? I don't have cable or Satellite so I missed it.

Rob.

Lockhart speech:

http://tinyurl.com/2p52p8
8777777

Lockhart speech:

http://tinyurl.com/2p52p8

Rob

But it's things like this which could sent it soaring at any given moment.

"Iranians 'Harass' U.S. Navy

Oil prices initially rose past $98 Monday after reports emerged that three U.S. Navy ships were involved in a tense standoff with Iranian military vessels in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, but they recently pulled back"

And of course there is that wonderful neighborhood that Israel lives in [Middle East].

It turns out that it was an analyst not the actual Fed speech. He was speaking much more frankly about inflation and the problem of printing money than I thought I Fed could speak on the record.

I think the CFC's already are widespread. They come in most configurations and color temps now including outdoor lamps which warm up faster.

LED's show much promise but still in development stage with configurations and color temps still to be determined.

Flourescent lighting has some applications that cannot be replaced by other bulb types.

Look at the new legislation, Cf's are in the law.

I'm looking at Phillips and Feit.

SBUX/MCD: Will buy MCD coffee on the road with no other choice. We've had drive through esspresso from all outlets including Burger King. All old Photomats are esspresso drive throughs here. All competition in coffee has already happened here.
None has replaced SBUX and I don't expect they will. SBUX still has a small portion of the total coffee market, so I'm not so sure MCD will cut into SBUX. For instance, is Dedrich hurting from MCD? How about SBC? Tulley's? NO they aren't. MCD will be a player but not a specialty player. And NO ONE is going to MCD to sit on the couch in the back, use broadband and study or meet socially.

Like em' both but MCD will only net those who already are customers.

Bill, thanks for your analysis on interest rates cuts. The Fed is obviously between a rock and a hard place. If they stand pat, this market will just continue to selloff due to a weakening economy. If they cut too much, you're right that traders will bail on a weakening economy and a likely weaker dollar. I was thinking they have to do at least .50 bps to calm the markets, and maybe another .25 at the Jan meeting. The bond market has already done the heavy lifting for them. I'm expecting a cut shortly, but I guess I'm the only one.

Isaiah,
I agree that politics could at any time send oil charging through $100 a barrel. But with recession on the world's mind and the FED wanting to control inflation so they can lower rates, I think the path of least resistance is down for commodities for the short term.

On the other hand there are at least 10-15 countries that could attack other countries and send the whole world into war. Then we'll be wishing for $100 oil.

Rob.

FYI: Compact flourescent bulbs...Cara 100 COST sells a card of 4 bulbs, about $6.

I just replaced a three way CFC that was over 10 years old.

Other types to make inroads, T-5's, T-8's.
Sylvania will always be a player as well.

DIG is the opposite of DUG. DIG not doing well but DUG had approx $2.00 move going into luchtime. Quick fingers can probably do well either way in day trades - just go with the "flow" --- gg.

You know I'm bore... I been toying with the ups & downs of FXP today... only 100 shares..

Buying below 78.5 and selling at or above 79.1

So far today I made $287...it'll buy a tank of gas. :^)

Not bad while waiting for the bulls or bears to enter the room.

BA @ 82.0

long BA

Informal market research:

Q: "Honey, MCD says they are adding coffee stands with Barristas, would you go to MCD to buy your latte?"

A: "Only if I'm already there and they have good coffee."

That's what I thought.....

Man you guys are crazy. I bring up CFL bulbs and LED two times in the past three weeks, the most current being a few days ago and also mention Phillips and CREE and no one bats an eye and suddenly this is the talk of the forum?

Geesh your giving me a complex here or maybe my posts are not showing up. Anyway CREE's chart isn't bad looking either.

P.S. I entered long into GILD and OMG this am. This is not a solicitation, do your own DD or consult with Financial Advisor.

2008 Equity Market Forecasts

Aside from HB&B, several well respected organizations are also predicting that the markets will end 2008 higher than they started.
Peter Gibson, at Desjardins Securities expects the TSX to be some 10% higher by the end of the year.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute is forecasting an economic slowdown in the US, but no recession.
Martin Barnes, at the Bank Credit Analyst is bullish for the next year.
They seem to generally agree that an extended drop in US Bond yields and aggressive cutting of Federal Reserve interest rates will serve to keep the bull alive. They appear to believe that the rate of inflation will remain in check, which will allow the Fed to continue to lower rates. They also believe that stock valuations are still reasonable, and the non OECD economies are continuing to expand strongly.
Personally, I don’t think that we have seen the full effect of the solvency crisis in the US banks yet, and I fear it may be worse than expected. However, the track record of the guys above is better than mine. I guess we will see.

isaiah- rapid swings, indeed->opened/closed positions in FXP a half dozen times in the past 45 minutes...

Environment: Humanity will buried under its own trash

Are There Really 'Continents' of Floating Garbage?

One plastic patch is estimated to weigh over 3 million tons and covers an area twice the size of Texas.

http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/12/are-there-reall.html

2nd
I know...."chump change"..........

But I'll TAKE IT !

Nah, when we are looking at bottoms and opportunities these things come up.

All these energy co's are going to come into play with a change in government. Just looking forward.

It doesn't seem that the dow likes the preview of the upcoming speech. 50 point drop in 2 minutes after the speech previews were released.

Geckojb,
I must not have seen your posts or I probably would have contributed my 2Cs.

And thanks for the CREE info jk484.

FXP- clearing the table on all of it for now at 79.96->thank you...

that was thank you to Old Goat...

Hello Bill, and everyone, just got here, did not read anone's post. WAJ just ran Hammerhead Hank's excerpts from the 2 pm speech. It sounds full of moral hazard - market turning. Most prob already read it, but just in case.

Hello Bill, and everyone, just got here, did not read anone's post. WAJ just ran Hammerhead Hank's excerpts from the 2 pm speech. It sounds full of moral hazard - market turning. Most prob already read it, but just in case.

Geckojb,
I added phillips and Cree to my watchlists when you mentioned them. I'm adding Sylvania as well.

Rob.

Value of Gold Over the Ages

http://tinyurl.com/3dn2k6

There is an interesting chart showing the value of gold from 1450 to 2007

Agree MCD will impact Dunkin more. Different customer base. Have to admit the last time I had coffee at a MCD was when they had those Big Mac spoons that junkies would use to cook up their heroin. MCD got rid of those years ago because Big Mac on the street meant something other than a hamburger sandwich. Long time ago.

With that said, just heard a business radio comment about average available income per SBUX customer is down. Think this will set up opportunity during the recession to make long term buy commitment. Patiently waiting for the big drop.

Barron’s online (subscription) has article today re dividend paying dry-bulk shippers DSX & GNK on “sail”. Key words are “barring a U.S. recession and global slowdown.” Think I’ll wait (patience again), but acknowledge those current iron ore and ag demands.

Bill, everyone back to work , guessing you’ll be over 200 posts today.

Value of Gold Over the Ages

http://tinyurl.com/3dn2k6

There is an interesting chart showing the value of gold from 1450 to 2007

CBS radio reporting two F-18s down in the Persian gulf. No further info.

Straddle update

Showing for both Jan 08 and Feb 08:

For January:

DIA C128/P128 3.09%
SPY C142/P142 3.46%
QQQQ C48/P48 4.45%
IWM C72/P72 5.08%
XLF C28/P27 5.67%

For Febuary:

DIA C128/P128 5.74%
SPY C142/P142 5.90%
QQQQ C48/P48 7.83%
IWM C72/P72 8.16%
XLF C28/P27 9.67%

This means that you make money if DIA moves by at most 5.74% by February 15, either way up or down.

FXP- back in @ 79.95 ;)->sentiment shifts rapidly

FSLR new low of the day, looks ready to go sub-230 after opening the day above $250. Sitting tight and being right (trying my damndest anywho).

Sio2,
Those looks like some great straddles. It seems like you could make money on both sides by Feb with the current volatility. I may open some for FEB on SPY depending on what Bush's speech does to the market.

Rob.

Keep in mind that a move of the dow to 12000 would be a 6.25% move down.

Bill, catching up with comments. You did not mention oil as a repository of wealth - everything else I agree. Sure Helicpoter can give american peso away if you can sign your name, but who is going to want to hold it?

Seamus,

CNN reporting that the the F-18s had a mid-air collision.

Bimbo tv is calling for a fiscal stimulus? This is after they helped their oil goon pals wreck the Democrats renewable energy bill. Good grief..

FL and Q, agree. I think it does look quite attractive, and risk is limited and, and you have fun either way.

Paulson fresh remarks:

"The first step has been to contact troubled borrowers. In its first two months, the HOPE NOW alliance sent over 450,000 letters to at-risk borrowers who had not previously contacted their servicers. Servicers estimate that, as a result of this effort, approximately 10 percent, or 45,000 homeowners, have called their servicers to see if foreclosure can be avoided. "

Pilots ejected and safe. No word of any enemy fire.

2nd

FXP has some crazy bid and ask spreads. And they can swing wildly in a split second... Once I get up again ... I'm out....

Are there any charts that show a precentage on the rt. side instead of price?

QID- out at 43.06...

All of this churning today is making me nervous. It makes me think the buyers will give up soon and sell.

Out of FXP at 80. A miniscule gain is better than a loss anyday.

Rob.

isaiah- the traders working for Profunds are the ones having a great day...

Tha latest from Jeffrey Saut

“Certainty or uncertainty; you pick it!”
January 7, 2008

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

kp84, why do you think the news about Jefferies group has any relation to GROW? The main GROW funds are energy (PSPFX), gold (UNWPX) and Eastern Europe (EUROX), so they are not in the same space as other US Equity funds, and when other funds see redemptions, GROW funds may see inflow of capital when investors flee to commodities. IMHO, only when the future of commodities and emerging markets will become bleak, will that be the time to sell GROW.

You may be concerned about PSPFX and EUROX in the light of the slowing US economy, so let's look at the data. www.usfunds.com states that PSPFX had $1.49b of assets as of 9/30/07, EUROX had $1.46b and UNWPX had $0.979b. Yahoo currently states that as 11/30/07, PSPFX had $1.74b, EUROX had $1.58b, and UNWPX had $1.14b. So unless the investor's mood changed radically in December, the average amount of assets in these funds over 4Q should be higher than that over 3Q, and hence GROW's profit should be much higher (a small increase in AUM results in a huge increase in profits for GROW).

kp84, why do you think the news about Jefferies group has any relation to GROW? The main GROW funds are energy (PSPFX), gold (UNWPX) and Eastern Europe (EUROX), so they are not in the same space as other US Equity funds, and when other funds see redemptions, GROW funds may see inflow of capital when investors flee to commodities. IMHO, only when the future of commodities and emerging markets will become bleak, will that be the time to sell GROW.

You may be concerned about PSPFX and EUROX in the light of the slowing US economy, so let's look at the data. www.usfunds.com states that PSPFX had $1.49b of assets as of 9/30/07, EUROX had $1.46b and UNWPX had $0.979b. Yahoo currently states that as 11/30/07, PSPFX had $1.74b, EUROX had $1.58b, and UNWPX had $1.14b. So unless the investor's mood changed radically in December, the average amount of assets in these funds over 4Q should be higher than that over 3Q, and hence GROW's profit should be much higher (a small increase in AUM results in a huge increase in profits for GROW).

FXP came up and kissed the 10-minute SMA(100) and then reversed.

FXP- bulking up...this is a bet...

FXP- whoa...out at 80.60, not back in at 79.81?

"now back in..."
bet is DJIA closes below 12,800...

FOOD:

In case anyone missed it, a new Agricultural ETF (COW) started trading in December on TSX.

Si02 and Others:

Does anyone know of companies that are poised to take advantage of India's increasing appetite for lamb and poultry?

Anyone knows why NVIDIA is down 10% today? Bear Stearns had just said Nvidia Corp. can gain market share and investors should stay with the company in 2008. ;-)

Northvan, SDA is exporting to China, I will have to check for India, but India and Brazil have been developing very good relations lately.

FXP- scaling out at 81.09...

I couldn't sit tight any longer. Covered my short on FSLR. One of my best intraday shorts of all time, sold 253.07 @ 08:42:28 CST and covered 228.21 @ 14:03:23 CST. Roughly 10%!!!

2008 looking much better for me than a lackluster '07.

Looking to put back the FSLR short on some strength, just thought the risk/reward ratio had changed too rapidly. Didn't wan't to get caught in a bear market rally backdraft.

2nd,
It looks like you called it. I can't see the DOW closing above 12,800 today. And all the 4 horsemen are below their daily 50day simple moving averages. It could be a trap to make us sell our longs and go short but it looks more like there's just no buying interest.

Rob.

Put some funds to work in Uranium Participation Corp which is a fund holding physical uranium (ticker U.TO).

I like LT fundamentals in the U market as well as a lack of correlation to the overall equities markets. The chart looks pretty good and I think downside risk is fairly limited.

DJIA fighting back to 12,800...would clear any shorts at this point...

Wow. PPT just showed up to prevent a close under support. I like how they wait until the last minute to make sure they can get the most manipulation for their (our!) buck.

Whoa, did Bernanke cut 50 bp while I was in the can?

Whoa, did Bernanke cut 50 bp while I was in the can?

David,
Re: GROW and Jefferies Group JEF

Good points; well taken. I was remiss in not
presenting my arguments; here's what I know:

As per AP wire news this am, JEF "...predicts a quarterly loss due to weak results in high yield and asset mgmt. business, as well as losses in two principal trading efforts. In addition, weak credit markets led to delay some deals."

So their prop desk blew some trades, the employees got axed and the market kneecaps the stock.

As per their Nov 8 10-Q, JEF does have material exposure to commodities, forex and emerging markets. While obviously not mutual fund managers/advisors, JEF acts in the capital markets and asset management space.

The markets show that traders/investors will dump these stocks as the bad news comes forth.

No position in either, but GROW is on my watch list.

Good trading,

Stu

Looks like the PPT is back.

Today showed a morning and an afternoon test of November closing lows by Dow and SPX. 3 strikes and your out???

isaiah- i would clear the table and stay in cash overnight...

NOt yet Billy, it is preternatural, these bounces. After shrub in chief gave his pepe talk on eliminating inheritance taxes - that boosted sentiment didn't it. They must have found a new rumor.

Billy,
I also closed my fslr short and am looking for a good bounce before shorting again...

Billy,
I also closed my fslr short and am looking for a good bounce before shorting again...

2nd

I am out of all shorts..... but I BLEW the call on DIG........ I was going to load up at 102.xx and chicken out.
&*^@#%^& !

I'm hacked.........

"ABU DHABI—Officials from France and the United Arab Emirates signed a $525 million deal to bring the Louvre to the Persian Gulf on Monday, the Agence France-Presse reports."

http://tinyurl.com/ynsbkg

Guess they need a reason for people to fly through the world's largest airport...

Interesting that the deal was originally touted as $900 million back in March.

http://tinyurl.com/22fadp

Must be currency conversion...

A $27 billion cultural center is nothing to sneeze at...

Long art.

This seems like the 2nd trading session in a row where the line in the sand was supported by a last minute pump.

2nd

Looks like you had a fair day with FXP.... I took about 5 rides with it... I found it nerve racking at times.... the spread kept changing so quickly today.

Are you still in QID? You got in at 42.10 a great level.

PPT

moneygenie posted information over the weekend (last night?) of a Friday meeting in the White House with the PPT.

Have to see if this rollercoaster with PPT influence keeps up (12800) the rest of the week.

Here's some interesting numbers.

From 12/27 until today's close:

Dow - 724 points or -5.3%
S&P - 79 points or -5.3%
Nasdaq - 218 points or -8%

Talk about tanking fast. And today's wild ride was no exception. The Nasdaq crossed the 2500 line 8 times. The DOW crossed the 12,800 line 7 times. I can't even imagine what will happen tomorrow. But I bet it will be just as exciting as today.

Rob.

WOW! That was some video game!

Sold out of the PM's, see they and Franc/Yen weakening while USD gains for a bit.

Was long and short the SKF all day and traded FXP and QID as well. I would just wait for a good buy pt and then set a sell point, repeat.

There were some deals on the dry shippers as Seamus noted. I watch EGLE and it was at the Nov low so I nibbled. Also PGH, just a very small bite. I don't know if I'll hold them long enough for the Dems to goof with the divs or not.
Both pay very good dividends.....presently.

Holding just a few QID (100) and SKF (50). Took profits on the rest.

Still puny market action. Remember when the Bulls could jam up 200 points in five mins into the close?

Me thinks they ran out of hay.

isaiah- QID off (much earlier in the day) at 43.06...
FXP->took a hit on my last move (hit the sell button as soon as DJIA started closing in on 12,800)...
final tally appears to put the port up 0.8% for the day...

glad to see you closed flat...

Marc Faber sees a correction in gold starting within days and a stock market rally into resistance at the 1480 - 1550 mark on S&P:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vw1GsscBsGL0.asf

moab...

Thanks for the link. GREAT interview of Marc Faber.

Starbucks Announces Strategic Initiatives to Increase Shareholder Value; Chairman Howard Schultz Returns as CEO

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080107/20080107006564.html?.v=1

I love Marc Faber and Bill. They both tell it like it is. The interviewers get nervous when Marc calls US infrastructure a disaster. They also ask if Bernanke should give in to political pressure, and Marc says no, he should resign because the Fed is supposed to be independent. That exchange made the interviewers look idiotic.

At the end of the Marc Faber interview he says this...
1.Next 3 months best to be in USD

2.Gold & commodities should peak this week and
then have a meaningful correction.

3.Then buy gold and cotton after correction

moab

Ditto... on your last post

Bill,

What is your opinion of the interview with Marc Faber? You have been saying that gold will crash sometime soon, but you have also been saying that the general market will crash as well, while Faber says that only commodities will crash and the market will rally for 3-6 months. Is this a probable scenario?

Maromatics: I think it is you who have been saying that gold is just another asset and it will be sold off if the market crashes. Do you think gold can crash if the market rallies?

Thanks!

I think Marc said that US stocks will outperform emerging markets in the next 3 to six months, not that there will be a rally for that duration. His call for a rally was to 1480 - 1550 S&P in the context of a bear market rally. Had to play it twice to get the nuance.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Bill,

what release will be happening on the 10th, as mentioned in your previous post, chain store sales? do you follow retail sales (1/15 release) as an indicator?

JW

Faber also said something I have said here several times. In Euro terms or gold terms, or CAD, or Real , there has been no US rally. The currency is devalued. All make believe for US investors.

Warren Buffett email reply:
I emailed WB during the holliday through his email at Berkshire Hathaway and asked him if he thought reading Graham's "Security analysis" and the "Intelligent Investor" would be a good start at beginning a study in fundamental analysis. He emailed back today that he recommended both books. Security Analysis is basically a textbook and the Intelligent Investor is a study of very conservative investing and buy low and sell higher through fundamental quality companies. But the book I have enjoyed the most on W.Buffett is a book by Mary Buffett called " The New Buffettology". I have not got the book yet but you can download the audio version as well at Audible.com for about $8. (since CDN and the USD are near par, I do not see the reason any longer to differenciate). It is 3 1/2 hours long but a complete breakdown on his trading style with examples. I listen to it while driving to the job when I am tired of listening to the business talking heads on CNBC/Bloomberg through Satilite radio. That happens a lot.

Ah ha....nice call.

I wonder if Chairman Bernanke will comment on retailers' weakness in/at his speech on the 10th.

NOt yet Billy, it is preternatural, these bounces. After shrub in chief gave his pepe talk on eliminating inheritance taxes - that boosted sentiment didn't it. They must have found a new rumor.

If the world's central banks continue to create fiat money at an excessive rate .... a financial or exteraneous event could provoke a change in global investment psychology towards a further flight to safety...out of fiat currencies and into gold. Gold at $3000 -- $4500 an ounce? If the financial destruction spirals down out of control.....who knows......maybe.... if we have a global economic implosion.

Some thoughts on Gold:

Current Value Global Investments $150Trillion USD (excluding derivitives)

Current Existing Supply of Gold
5 Billion oz (Estimated total gold in existence)

Current Market Value of Gold $ 4.315 Trillion (at $863 oz)

Gold % Total Global Investment 2.87%

Growth in Supply of Gold per year
Flat to > 1.5%

If Global Investment shifts to an allocation of 15% gold, that equals $22,5 trillion
or 26,07 billion ounces......exceeding current global supply by a factor of 5.2 x

A 10% allocation to gold would equal demand for 17.8 billion oz ...exceeding global supply by 3.6 x

$863 oz x 5.2= $ 4,487 oz

$863 oz x 3.6= $3,106 oz

Current World Population 6.642 Billion people

Gold per person/Existing Supply 0.75 oz per person

If 10% of the world's population... 664,2 million are potential owners of gold...... all the world's gold evenly divided (5b oz)
equals 7.5 ounces per person. Not much.

A coin dealer friend of mine said if the dung hits the fan, physical gold won't be available, period. Demand could rapidly outstrip supply if fear gets out of the box........We wait and watch.

Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters,
(subscription only) comments today on the third phase of the gold bull market.

"The third phase of the gold bull market lies somewhere ahead. The third speculative phase will be signaled by a gradual rush by the public into gold. Interestingly, the third phase will be underscored by both fear and greed. There will be fear of loss of purchasing power in paper money, there will be greed to possess gold as it rises ever-higher in terms of paper currencies"

cnnmoney.com story on Martin Feldstein of NBER: said he expects President Bush to lay out fiscal stimulus plans in his State of the Union speech (scheduled for Jan.28)...Feldstein is close to a number of Bush Admin's economic team.

Bush commented earlier to Reuters that he won't make up his mind on a stimulus package until the speech.

Interesting discussion with George Vasic, Chief Economist and Strategist at UBS.

http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?sid=205&vid=25840

US recession is already here, warns Merrill
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 12:05am GMT 08/01/2008

The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Merrill, itself one of Wall Street's biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world's biggest economy is now underway.
David Rosenberg, the bank's chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.

Mr Rosenberg, who is well-respected on Wall Street, argues: "According to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality."

His comments are the strongest sign yet that the gloom on Wall Street over the US economy is deepening as the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the credit rout show little sign of easing.....

http://tinyurl.com/2lex8m

Bill,

I agree that Bernanke won't stand up to political interference with the Fed. Just found it interesting that conventional wisdom welcomes intervention as a good thing and conveniently ignores or forgets the fact that the Fed is supposed to be independent of political meddling.

Article from a Chinese perspective. From 2005!

http://tinyurl.com/2u9jcr
US-led global recession
A Chinese perspective on America's Economic Crisis by Lau Nai-keung
Global Research, October 19, 2005
China Daily
It's time to take seriously a US-led global recession I think it is time that we should take a serious look at the possibility that the US is going to take us down towards a worldwide recession in one or two year's time. It is well known that the US is the world's biggest economy, taking up about 30 per cent of global GDP, but it is now also the world's biggest debtor country. According to the most authoritative person on this subject, the US Comptroller General David Walker, who audits the federal government's books, the tab for the long-term promises the US Government has made to creditors, retirees, veterans and the poor amounts to US$43,000 billion, US$145,000 per US citizen, or US$350,000 for every full-time worker....

If you are nvesting in India and/or India ETFs then I think that this is a must read.

By Will McClatchy, ETFzone Editor
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
The top gaining exchange-traded fund of 2007 is going out in style. Indian securities regulators have shut the door on all exchange-traded products, and Barclays' iPath MSCI India Exchange Traded Note (NYSEarca:INP) is likely on the way out. Shareholders made out splendidly with 88% gains last year, but it's a gentle reminder of how dependent exchange-traded products are on open capital markets.
http://tinyurl.com/2cptgf

any way to sort a Google site search by date? If not maybe Bill can look into adding this feature...

Bill
If you are looking for ideas a search by poster poster would nice. For quick refernce to a certain posters thoughts

Ctrl-F. As Judge Reinholt said, "Read it... Learn it... Live it."

Gold spiked overnight, 875/oz. We'll see how long this lasts.

Sergio,
After your search you can click on advanced search and select 1-month, etc to limit to date, but I dont know how to sort by date.
Tim

SBUX: One, I lost $$$ when I stopped out the other day. If I had held a day I would have been good with the Howard Schultz announcement.

Now for the meat of the issue.

Those thinking MCD will cut into SBUX don't know the details. As reported last night on Coffeeland TV (Seattle News) MCD reported hiring "Baristas" to compete with Starbucks.

Surprise! This is MacDonalds!!!!

The "Barista" is the same high quality individual that pushes the button on the coke machine and the shake machine that gives you strawberry when you want chocolate.
YES, the "Barista" pushes a button on an automated machine that is every bit as much a "Barista" as the coffee machine serving "lattes" at your local tire shop. (Yes of course, Canadian Tire).

Folks, this is NOT lattes. mochas or esspresso.
This is machine coffee. Like they have been serving at COST for a while. You can't go in and order *your* drink, you get MacDonalds.

Hint: Machine made coffee drinks 1) SUCK, and 2) can't be personalized/cutomized like SBUX drinks.
No one will be able to walk into MCD and order their skinny, double latte with extra foam, or in my case a triple grande breve no whip mocha.
No, that will not be happening and investors should know it.
In short, MCD will get some business from drive through customers there for a cheeseburger and fries who is NOT coffee savvy and doesn't have a clue about coffee or Starbucks, Tully's, Seattle's Best, etc. etc. Like all of their business, it will be based on convenience and consistency in one product.

You can't get it "your way".

MCD franchisees are ticked that they are forced to buy a coffee shop.

http://tinyurl.com/2bceza

Well, the opposite to me trade is working out for everyone else... is CC in the "accumulation zone" still or the dead zone?

wavemash...you might want to wait on CC till the market goes thru its wash out.....BSC issued an ugly report on Best Buy..and thats the creme de la creme of the electronic retailers....cheers...

Good call EEMTRADER...

Buy alert on CC... anyone taking the bait?