The tables in this report show that Energy stocks (XLE +3.63 pct W/W) boomed, and Basic Material (XLB +1.03 pct W/W) were strong as well.

When reviewing stats, you have to know the “W” may refer to Week and sometimes to 5 sessions, which in holiday weeks incorporates previously recorded data.

So if we take a look at XLB for example, I wrote that the gain was +1.03 pct and over 5 sessions, that’s correct. But if you recall, the previous week, XLB was on a downer all week until Friday where a gain of +1.68 pct on the day produced a gain on the week of 1.20 pct. With the holiday for Christmas when there was no trading, we double counted the Friday +1.68 pct gain to produce our +1.03 pct gain W/W. Hence, XLB lost on the four days of this week. A check of the prices shows that XLB closed this Friday at 42.00 and the prior Friday at 42.27, which is a loss of 27 cents.

I see this situation frequently where data is misconstrued to represent something it is not. Unfortunately, the lazy media are not as sharp-minded as the large capital pool traders who can skew these “results”. In other words, when the game is about serious money, you should expect these tricks. Having been around a bit, I know that every trick in the book is used to confuse the average trader.

So, when you see Table 1 showing 5 sectors up and 5 down on the week, the “week” is 5 sessions, whereas THIS week had only four and 9 of 10 sectors were down. For the same reason, Table 14 shows that 23 Dow stocks were up and just 7 down, but in fact in the four days of trading this week there were just 9 of the Dow 30 up and 21 down.

The winners this week were the commodity-sensitive Exxon (XOM), Alcoa (AA) and Caterpillar (CAT), the latter because it makes heavy duty mining equipment, plus General Electric (GE) and Honeywell (HON), which are heavy into military, which seems to be ramping up with US forces apparently being readied to move into Pakistan, AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), which are fairly safe large dividend payers, and Procter & Gamble (PG) and Microsoft (MSFT) which have strong and stable cash flow that becomes a safe haven situation when markets get nervous.

Overall, my take on the market as ready to fall under the weight of inflation and a stagnating economy in North America, Europe and Japan is unchanged.

Exxon (XOM) had a terrific week in the market, moving from $93.43 to $95 for a gain of $1.57, which if you add the prior Friday’s gain of $1.30 is a gain of almost $3 in five sessions. Now you know I say that six months from now your having sold XOM at 94 will have proven to be a great trade.

Two weeks ago, the Value Line analyst Robt Mitkowski, who I think is pretty good, wrote a report that concluded, from a price at that point of $88.12, Annualized Total Returns through 2010-2012 would be just +7 pct on the high side to $110 to as low as +3 pct on the low side to 90. The dividend yield at the time was +1.7 pct and expected to grow each year by +7.0 pct. The stock is now $95, so where’s the upside, meaning that if you are a buyer today you are holding a lot of risk. Risk management is our business.

Give this some thought: the price of crude oil has risen from the low 50’s to about 80 in the first three quarters of 2007, and yet, in the words of Mitkowski, “Despite higher oil prices, ExxonMobil’s net profit was slightly lower in the first nine months of 2007 than it was the previous year.” He goes on to add, “The added spending in recent years to raise oil pumping capabilities has worked, in theory. Exxon Mobil would have increased its production by about 3% in 2007 if it were not for less output from production-sharing contracts due to higher prices. The loss of control over Venezuelan assets also hurt results, contributing to a 2% decline in production. The company has put the work in to provide for about a 4% annual rise in volume for the next few years. However, it’s not clear to what extent circumstances will allow that potential to be realized. Expansion downstream is more selective. Competition is fierce to get in on promising new refining and chemicals facilities, with venues largely limited to up-and-coming Asian nations, such as China and Singapore. Exxon Mobil has its hand in a couple of such projects, but refining and chemicals product sales are likely to continue advancing by around 1% a year, on average.”

So Exxon has issues to deal with. What has been driving the stock is the +19 pct earnings growth due to, in Mitkowski’s words again, “formidable stock-buyback program enhances results nicely. The repurchase of $8.5 billion worth of common stock in the most recent quarter lifted share net to the same level as the prior year, despite 10% less net profit. For all of 2007, ExxonMobil is on track to top $30 billion in share repurchases. That would bring the three-year total to a likely $80 billion. Exxon feels that stock buybacks are a better use of capital than acquisitions.” That rapid per share earnings growth is now over, and the company is relying on crude prices and pump prices to continue to increase.

Therein lies the rub. America cannot go from $50 to $100 oil in a year and avoid a massive recession. Oil prices and pump prices must come down or else. In fact, the point I have been making is that the damage has already been done, and only by interventionist moves from the US Treasury Department and Federal Reserve Bank, causing a lower USD, has the equity and debt markets remained pumped. But, for how long before inflation creep starts to push bond prices down and yields higher and the weekly Treasury auctions have to become bigger, also pushing bond prices lower and yields higher.

Then the share buyback game is over too. Same for the private equity deals. And with higher yields, the housing market crisis will worsen as rolling over ARMs will force even greater numbers of homeowners out of their homes.

But as long as commodity prices remain high, the cost of gasoline at the fuel pump will keep consumers at home and away from the stores, which will then cause bankruptcies among the retailers and the mall owners, which in turn will further depress manufacturing and shipping.

The US economy is in a corner and XOM a good case study in how it works through the mess. Everybody wants theirs. Exxon needs higher prices for crude and also at the fuel pump. The retailers hate it, which is why I have been pointing you to study the retailers and consumer spending and new unemployment claims data.

As far as the bankers at Humungous Bank & Broker go, the ones with the credit derivatives problem, JP Morgan, Bank of America and Citigroup, will have to resolve those issues. But that’s the tip of the iceberg. The ones with the dubious quality Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) on their books, like Citi and Merrill Lynch, among others, also have serious problems. Then there are the banks and near-banks that delved into the sub-prime lending business, like HSBC, and the banks, asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds that bought them and are still holding them marked to cost and not true value. Then there are the big bond players like Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns who will start taking a major hit to profits should the bond market tank.

In fact, the outlook for HB&B is not a rosy one. Foreign investors from the Middle East and Asia are laying in wait, and could end up owning the great money center banks of America and Europe before all the dust has settled.

That’s the state of the world as I see it at the close of 2007.

As to my outlook, which was summed up in the prior couple weeks, it remains unchanged: “The calamity in forex and precious metal markets will continue for several weeks and probably months before gold falls to probably 730, possibly as low as 650, and the $USD moves higher to at least 82, which will relieve some pressure on the US inflation front. At that point, I anticipate Crude Oil to be priced in the 75 range. During the liquidity crisis and tightening process, I anticipate the US equity markets to possibly fall back to 10 and 2, which is to say to 10,000 for the DJIA and 2000 for the Nasdaq Composite.”

Maybe I should have stressed more in the past the point I am about to make: I trade by analysis of price series data (adding volume analysis for the micro-caps). The nuances of the trading tactics are affected by my mind-set. Some people incorrectly think that I trade like my mind-set, which for two and a half years has been bearish. No, the analysis of price trends (MACD) and cycles (RSI/STO) determines my tactics. I may buy something based on analysis, but if my mind-set is bearish, my finger is close to the sell button. As a manager of risk first and reward second, my primary job is to cut my losses off before they damage the portfolio.

I picked up a habit from a trader (unfortunately I cannot recall his name) whom I worked with almost 25 years ago, and it has always served me well. In his daily and weekly set ups, he listed his portfolio with current prices beside each name. Beside the price he drew two arrows starting from the same point, one pointing up and the other down, to where he believed the price would be a week or a month from then. If the potential upside (in his mind) was bigger than the downside, the upward pointing arrow was longer, and vice versa. Whenever he changed the length of those arrows, he would write the reason that changed his outlook.

This asset manager was constantly focused on price and causal factors. His set-up sheets were like a diary he would review. Traders, I think, need discipline like this because the world is always pushing and pulling you to do this or that. There is so much hot air that, if you don’t have a system of some kind, you will find yourself spinning in the breeze.

My system is a little different in that I use a simple Accumulation/Distribution Zone system with Buy/Sell Alerts based on RSI. It is not meant to be precise, but serve as a guide. If you are patient, and don’t over-commit to a new Buy or Sell, but simply change your tactics based on the signals, then eventually you will reduce your risk and increase your reward. And, over time, you will enhance your analytics (say by adding MACD to the RSI) and your tactics (say by using put and call options) and, undoubtedly, even your strategies (say by trading forex/gold or foreign stocks). In time, if you stick to your knitting, you will become a good trader, certainly superior to most of your friends and associates, and possibly better performers than the majority of professional asset managers.

The last point needs explanation. Asset managers are severely handicapped by (i) committees (ii) full investment or short-selling restrictions (iii) having to stick to a marketing theme that was used to build the Fund (iv) just plain never having been properly trained (v) personal greed or interest that is in conflict with the job mandate (vi) stress from competition pressure that often leads to mistakes, (vii) the time it takes to move into and out of humungous positions, and (viii) numerous others.

In other words, I am not taking an unfair shot at asset managers; I am merely pointing out to the rest of you that trading is not like driving in a Formula One race where you would never get off the starting grid much less have any chance whatsoever of beating a professional race driver. Trading is something you can all excel at if you apply yourself, knowing that the best pro traders may have advantages, but they are also handicapped.

So for this New Year’s Resolution, please add the one that you are going to apply yourself to better trading techniques, and we can then all look back at the end of 2008 with an air of satisfaction and growing confidence.

May you have a happy and prosperous new year.

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Global Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

It is important to review the following reports this week on the US economy. On balance, this is not a healthy picture. It is in fact a worsening condition.

Econoday Report on US New Home Sales for November.

Econoday Report on US Durable Goods Orders for November.

Econoday Report on US New Unemployment Claims.

Inflation is surging in many countries for both producers and consumers as shown by this Dec 21 report by Econoday. Ignore the Global Stock Market Recap and Currencies, which is a week old, but review the Indicator Scorecard to take note of the inflation creep and economic slowing around the world.

Econoday International Report (Dec 21).

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

THIS WEEK closed with 9 GREEN industries and 9 RED, compared to last week’s 7 green, 12Red – bringing the net sector tally from -5 industries to NEUTRAL.

Of the Cara 100 components, are 27 GREEN (last week: 27) 32 are RED - (last week: 32) – exactly the same as last week !

(note: this table is slightly different from the one Jock uses, and uses 5-day lookbacks instead of weekly data)

Ticker	Name	Score -5wks	Score -4wks	Score -3wks	Score -2wks	Score -1wks	Score -0wks
ABB	ABB Ltd.	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	+2
ABV	COMP DE BEBA AM ADS	-2	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2
ADBE	Adobe Systems Inc.	-2	-2	+2	+0	-2	-2
AET	Aetna Inc.	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2	+0
AMAT	Applied Materials Inc.	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
ATVI	Activision Inc.	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2
BA	Boeing Co.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	+0
BBBY	Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2
BBD	Banco Bradesco S.A.	-2	+0	+2	+0	+0	+0
BC	Brunswick Corp.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
BDK	Black & Decker Corp.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
BHP	BHP Billiton Ltd.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	-2	+2	+2	+0	-2	-2
CCJ	Cameco Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
CCL	Carnival Corp.	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
CEO	CNOOC Ltd.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
CHA	China Telecom Corp. Ltd.	-2	+2	+2	-2	+0	+0
CHL	China Mobile Limited	-2	+0	+2	+0	+0	+0
CHRW	CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2
COST	Costco Wholesale Corp.	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0	+2
CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2
CTSH	Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+2	+0
CVX	Chevron Corp.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
DB	Deutsche Bank AG	-2	+2	+2	+2	-2	+2
DELL	Dell Inc.	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2	+0
DEO	Diageo plc	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
DIS	Walt Disney Co.	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
DOW	Dow Chemical Co.	-2	+0	+0	+2	-2	-2
DNA	Genentech Inc.	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
ECA	EnCana Corp.	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
ERJ	EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeron�utica S.A.	-2	-2	+2	+2	-2	-2
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	-2	+0	-2	+2	+2	+2
EXC	Exelon Corp.	+0	+2	+2	+2	+0	+0
GE	General Electric Co.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
GFI	Gold Fields Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
GGB	Gerdau S.A.	-2	-2	+2	+0	+0	+2
GOL	GOL Linhas A�reas Inteligentes S.A.	-2	-2	+2	-2	-2	+2
GOOG	Google Inc.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
GRMN	Garmin Ltd.	-2	+2	+2	+2	-2	-2
GS	Goldman Sachs Group Inc.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
GSK	Glaxosmithkline plc	-2	+2	+2	+2	-2	-2
HBC	HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	+0
HDB	HDFC Bank Ltd.	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0	+0
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
IBN	ICICI Bank Ltd.	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
IMO	Imperial Oil Ltd.	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
INFY	Infosys Technologies Ltd.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
INTC	Intel Corp.	-2	+2	+2	+2	+0	+0
JCP	J. C. Penney Company, Inc	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	+2	+2	+2	+0	+0	+0
KB	Kookmin Bank	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
KO	Coca-Cola Co.	+2	+2	+0	+2	+0	+0
KSS	Kohl's Corp.	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
LEH	Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.	-2	+2	+2	-2	+2	+2
LLTC	Linear Technology Corp.	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
LYO	Lyondell Chemical Co.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+2
MBT	Mobile Telesystems OJSC	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0	+2
MCO	Moody's Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
MFC	Manulife Financial Corporation	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
MICC	Millicom International Cellular SA	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0	+0
MU	Micron Technology Inc.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
NKE	Nike Inc.	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0	+0
NOK	Nokia Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
NTES	Netease.com Inc.	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2
NUE	Nucor Corp.	-2	+2	+2	+2	+0	+2
ORCL	Oracle Corp.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
OXPS	optionsXpress Holdings, Inc.	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2
PAYX	Paychex Inc.	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2
PBR	PETROLEO BRASILEIRO	+0	+0	+2	+2	+0	+2
PG	Procter & Gamble Co.	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0	+0
PTR	PetroChina Co. Ltd.	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2
QCOM	QUALCOMM Inc.	-2	+2	-2	-2	-2	-2
RIO	COMPANHIA VALE ADS	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
RIMM	Research In Motion Ltd.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	+2
RY	Royal Bank of Canada	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2	+0
SBUX	Starbucks Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
SLW	Silver Wheaton Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+2
SNDK	SanDisk Corp.	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2
STO	StatoilHydro ASA	-2	+0	+2	-2	-2	+0
SU	Suncor Energy Inc.	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
SWK	Stanley Works	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
TCK	Teck Cominco Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
TEF	Telefonica SA	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
TGP	Teekay LNG Partners LP.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
TGT	Target Corp.	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
TM	Toyota Motor Corp.	-2	+0	+2	+0	-2	-2
TOT	Total SA	+2	+0	+2	+0	-2	+2
TS	Tenaris SA	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
TT	Trane Inc	-2	+2	+2	+0	+2	+2
UBS	UBS AG	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
UTX	United Technologies Corp.	-2	+2	+2	+2	+0	+2
VCP	Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A.	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0	-2
VIP	Vimpel-Communications	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2
WAG	Walgreen Co.	+0	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
WBK	Westpac Banking Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+2	-2	-2
WFMI	Whole Foods Market Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
WHR	Whirlpool Corp.	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0	+0
WMT	Wal-Mart Stores Inc.	-2	+2	+2	+2	+0	+0
XOM	Exxon Mobil Corp.	-2	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2
YHOO	Yahoo! Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
Summary:	(+2/-2/other)	3/71/25	28/28/43	40/19/40	22/28/49	12/48/39	27/31/41
Net:	(+2)-(-2)	-68	+0	+21	-6	-36	-4

Components of major indices (green/red) were as follows:

In all indices, the number of red components increased; in none did the green components increase. The deterioration within the Russell 2000 was most impressive.

Among the major indices, only the CRB, NDX, and Shanghai composite were GREEN.

The DJIA, COMPQX, Russell 2000, SP-500, Wiltshire 4500, Bombay Composite, and the US$ index were neutral. Hang Seng stayed RED.

GOLD and SILVER stocks both rose from neutral to GREEN.

BOTTOM LINE: This week, the market sectors rose to fully neutral – that’s the headline! Index components saw more REDs, and GOLD and SILVER stocks strengthened to GREEN.

Jock
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NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

As I pointed out a week ago, Caraistas can ask Jock to explain the nuances of this system. Essentially it is the system I use with the exception that I use RSI instead of EMA. I also combine the use of three time horizons (based on monthly, weekly and daily price series data) in my analysis. I use the RSI for cycle studies and MACD for trend studies. I do this for individual stocks, then stocks in correlated groups (eg, gaming companies, gold producers, US retailers…), stocks in industries and sectors (using GICS coding) and across regional markets (actual domestic price data in international markets rather than $USD denominated and traded ETFs).

Once I can see how the market is acting, I use confirmation techniques by studying the relationships between equity prices and economic data (eg, lower US Industrial Production ought to negatively impact FDX), commodities (eg, hurt the buyer and help the seller), yields on fixed income (vs high dividend yield stocks), and international currency trends (eg, lower $USD helps US exporters and hurts US importers, ie, foreign exporters).

I see the market as a system, like the human mind and body. Watching cash flow into and out of stocks, industries and sectors is, to me, like watching a person breathe. If I were a medical clinician instead of a portfolio manager, I would be studying the data in order to improve the work-flow of patient care. For each patient, I would be watching for signs of stress, anxiety, change so that I could diagnose problems and recommend therapies.

For technical analysis study and approaches to trading, I do recommend Dr. Elder’s books and those of Martin Pring. But trading success will come quickest to traders who also use corporate fundamental and quantitative studies and economic studies.

As I very much believe that traders need a thorough grounding in all aspects of trading, in 1Q08 I shall compile a list of recommended books on all aspects of the subject.

And, I’ll ensure that Jock’s report is fully automated too.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

DJIA=13366, down from 13,450 a week ago Friday.

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, DJIA=13,895.63)

I do not think the US major market levels are sustainable. Inflation is too high and also on the rise, which is hurting buying power of consumers, which in turn is leading to lower corporate profits.

I do not believe that money by decree of the US Administration and the European Union is any solution. It is merely putting off the day of reckoning for HB&B and providing a longer window for insiders of these distressed financial institutions to be selling their shares.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Nasdaq=2674 down from a week ago Friday at 2692. “Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, Nasdaq=2701.5)

After I saw a short-term bottom of about 2550 in December, supported by strength in the Nasdaq 100 (non-financials), I wrote, “I think we’ll see a lift, but not for long, and this 2350-2400 level will be tested again in December.” Clearly that did not occur, save for a crash on (part-day) Monday, but I still believe there will be a major sell-off in the next couple weeks.

A clearly defined head-and-shoulders pattern is in place for the Nasdaq Composite, and a similar but lesser defined one for the Dow 30. I believe that without higher corporate profits reported for 4Q07 and higher guidance for 1Q08, the average share price will sink as interest rates cannot be forced any lower due to the inflation situation.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week the scoreboard reads 5 up and 5 down using a five-session week, but 1 up and 9 down based on the calendar week. The latter is the same as the result from two weeks ago. Energy XLE remained as top performer.

A week ago, I wrote, “On Friday, all my ETF’s rallied except for Utilities XLU, which dropped -0.58 pct on the day. XLE (+1.80 pct) was by far the best, setting a new record close of 79.30. This is high-risk territory, however, for XLE. The XLE Monthly RSI-7 is 79.4, but the Weekly and Daily RSI-7 are just above 70 and could give a significant Sell Alert with a single bad market session.”

Presently there are 7 of the Cara 100 in the Distribution Zone and 3 in the Accumulation Zone. In recent days, there have been two Sell Alerts and five Buy Alerts. This week was soft, but did not set off the alarm bells. Yet.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	80.31	0.63	0.79%	3.63%	3.37%	9.83%	41.94%	7.17%	16.81%	35.61%
XLB	42.00	-0.05	-0.12%	1.03%	-1.73%	1.74%	21.35%	-0.28%	4.35%	19.73%
XLI	39.35	-0.03	-0.08%	0.77%	-1.38%	0.36%	11.69%	-4.02%	1.16%	11.66%
IYZ	29.85	-0.01	-0.03%	0.74%	0.37%	3.22%	0.64%	-11.82%	-11.69%	0.91%
XLP	29.03	0.11	0.38%	0.24%	-1.19%	-0.07%	10.46%	3.90%	7.44%	10.59%
IYH	71.25	-0.03	-0.04%	-0.29%	-1.56%	-1.86%	7.21%	0.65%	1.98%	6.84%
SMH	32.63	-0.11	-0.34%	-0.58%	-1.63%	-0.06%	-2.80%	-14.80%	-14.89%	-3.35%
XLF	28.86	-0.15	-0.52%	-0.62%	-3.83%	-4.60%	-21.83%	-15.61%	-20.67%	-21.94%
XLY	32.93	-0.03	-0.09%	-0.66%	-2.66%	-3.54%	-14.51%	-10.35%	-16.17%	-14.60%
XLU	42.92	0.32	0.75%	-0.74%	-2.45%	0.89%	16.57%	7.49%	9.29%	16.85%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) remained best performer, moving from 79.30 to 80.31. Of course, West Texas Intermediate Crude ($WTIC) moved up from 91.31/bbl to 96.00.

A week ago, the XOM was up +2.5 pct W/W to 93.43. This week it closed at 95.00.

A week ago, I wrote, “Isn’t the market terrific? It’s possibly giving you yet another chance to sell XOM at 94 or better. You’ll look back in six months and say thank you, Mr. Market.” You’ll be even happier selling at 95 for all the reasons I gave off the top.

“I have been saying that I think $WTIC is going lower and that in time will work itself down to about 75. In the interim, this is a day trader’s market, so you can expect hour to hour changes.”

The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is at 76.09, up from 75.33 the previous week. As I say, this average is “moving”. The 50-day MA is now at 92.29, up from 91.41 and obviously still rising, “so (as I wrote a few weeks ago when the 200d-MA was down at 70) in a month or two, the 200-day MA will likely move up through 75, which is where I think the current price will eventually intersect it.”

Most of the Oil stocks were up on Friday by +1 to +2 pct, which I attribute to the crisis in Pakistan and to the $USD drop.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	117.62	1.65	1.42%	8.91%	6.36%	21.82%	136.04%	55.79%	94.16%	131.22%
IMO	56.51	0.87	1.56%	8.13%	9.45%	14.97%	58.47%	14.02%	22.48%	53.39%
STO	31.00	0.65	2.14%	7.68%	1.77%	-5.08%	20.67%	-8.61%	2.62%	17.11%
SU	110.19	2.10	1.94%	5.39%	6.90%	12.55%	49.09%	16.22%	24.59%	39.32%
TOT	83.71	1.63	1.99%	5.34%	2.79%	4.21%	17.95%	3.31%	5.01%	16.41%
CEO	165.09	0.35	0.21%	4.80%	1.56%	-11.13%	75.12%	-0.81%	46.02%	78.49%
XOM	95.00	1.33	1.42%	3.12%	2.46%	7.24%	28.19%	2.64%	13.64%	22.85%
CVX	94.86	1.11	1.18%	3.05%	1.91%	9.59%	33.66%	1.37%	12.69%	27.71%
ECA	69.21	0.77	1.13%	2.50%	2.40%	5.78%	52.65%	11.90%	13.55%	47.54%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) lost ground W/W, falling from 42.27 to 42.00.

A week ago Friday, after XLB gained +1.68 pct on the day, I wrote, “Friday made the week for XLB, which it did for most of these sectors. The rest of the week was a loser. Now we have to see if the gains are sustainable.”

Alcoa (AA) was a winner this week. On Friday some of the steelmakers had big gains (MT +2.1 pct) (PKX +1.9 pct), but prices through the sector were mixed, except for the goldminers on Friday which boomed from +2 to over +6 pct for most of the majors except GFI, which gained just +0.8 pct on the day.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MT	77.80	1.58	2.07%	8.96%	5.36%	7.06%	90.69%	-0.71%	24.18%	84.10%
TCK	36.81	0.33	0.90%	8.91%	3.31%	2.59%	-46.84%	-22.85%	-13.20%	-50.76%
PKX	154.25	2.89	1.91%	4.65%	-6.07%	-1.32%	94.20%	-13.72%	30.23%	85.62%
BHP	71.36	0.18	0.25%	4.18%	-4.01%	-5.42%	83.59%	-9.21%	20.44%	79.30%
AA	36.86	-0.13	-0.35%	4.15%	1.46%	0.85%	25.67%	-5.78%	-6.21%	22.78%
RTP	421.00	-5.40	-1.27%	4.04%	-3.89%	-8.68%	106.27%	22.60%	38.93%	96.74%
GGB	29.40	-0.25	-0.84%	3.96%	4.44%	7.18%	79.05%	12.13%	14.75%	80.48%
NUE	60.85	0.31	0.51%	3.00%	0.15%	5.99%	11.65%	2.32%	4.57%	10.08%
RIO	33.38	-0.23	-0.68%	2.83%	-0.63%	-2.85%	15.82%	-1.62%	-24.15%	11.49%
TS	44.78	0.33	0.74%	2.75%	-2.50%	-4.70%	-7.71%	-14.90%	-8.56%	-9.43%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	29.13	0.33	1.15%	7.85%	2.68%	1.60%	63.47%	11.06%	29.70%	63.74%
CAT	73.16	0.43	0.59%	2.31%	-1.43%	2.01%	19.62%	-6.72%	-7.50%	19.33%
GE	37.34	0.15	0.40%	2.25%	-0.64%	-2.10%	-1.66%	-9.81%	-2.05%	-0.37%
BA	88.25	-0.63	-0.71%	1.22%	-0.34%	-5.32%	-1.03%	-15.94%	-7.26%	-0.84%
HON	61.20	0.01	0.02%	0.84%	0.91%	11.52%	35.70%	2.91%	8.55%	34.62%
MMM	85.09	-0.31	-0.36%	0.71%	-2.11%	1.77%	8.73%	-9.07%	-2.03%	8.87%
UTX	76.87	0.03	0.04%	0.62%	-0.95%	1.90%	22.38%	-4.49%	8.13%	22.38%
ERJ	46.20	-0.74	-1.58%	0.54%	-1.32%	5.41%	13.29%	5.19%	-4.49%	12.24%
FDX	90.62	-1.28	-1.39%	-3.21%	-6.76%	-5.79%	-17.45%	-13.49%	-19.36%	-16.05%

XLI (Industrials) lost ground W/W using the calendar week, from 39.47 to 39.35.

As I wrote four weeks ago, with XLI at 39.40, “the econ data is still coming through quite soft and this week the same thing is likely (which happened). So I wouldn’t go chasing the Industrials unless there is a definite reversal in the data.”

GE, HON and CAT were winners this week.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) lost ground from 33.19 to 32.93.

I think the focus ought to be on the US Retailers now. The January 10th reporting by the majority of them will indicate the results of the important December period as well as set the important guidance for 1Q08. I remain skeptical that the consumer can handle more spending with more challenging borrowing conditions and higher prices as the fuel pump.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CCL	44.61	0.12	0.27%	1.36%	-0.40%	0.00%	-12.44%	-7.89%	-8.10%	-10.17%
EBAY	33.78	0.13	0.39%	1.23%	-0.91%	0.69%	11.97%	-13.43%	5.69%	11.45%
TM	106.60	-0.92	-0.86%	0.70%	-3.47%	-5.38%	-21.21%	-8.78%	-14.49%	-20.60%
JCP	43.77	0.51	1.18%	0.62%	0.41%	-1.71%	-43.93%	-30.93%	-39.98%	-43.62%
DIS	32.42	-0.01	-0.03%	0.28%	-1.04%	-1.19%	-5.20%	-5.73%	-4.22%	-6.08%
WHR	80.79	-0.69	-0.85%	-0.93%	-3.18%	1.81%	-4.57%	-9.33%	-28.22%	-2.67%
BC	17.55	0.11	0.63%	-1.63%	-6.40%	-11.45%	-45.02%	-23.23%	-46.74%	-45.09%
SBUX	20.13	-0.33	-1.61%	-1.95%	-6.37%	-12.63%	-42.89%	-23.17%	-23.89%	-43.65%
NKE	64.31	-0.69	-1.06%	-2.58%	-1.00%	-0.62%	31.70%	9.63%	10.33%	29.66%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WAG	38.62	0.24	0.63%	6.54%	5.38%	3.57%	-16.17%	-18.25%	-11.28%	-16.17%
ABV	72.79	0.37	0.51%	1.68%	-1.89%	-1.64%	48.25%	-0.46%	4.91%	48.13%
PG	74.25	0.36	0.49%	1.45%	-0.20%	0.13%	15.04%	5.56%	21.01%	15.15%
DEO	86.21	-0.16	-0.19%	0.85%	-0.35%	-6.24%	8.40%	-1.73%	3.62%	7.92%
PEP	77.03	0.33	0.43%	0.71%	-2.11%	0.64%	22.82%	5.15%	18.05%	21.79%
WMT	48.08	0.31	0.65%	0.48%	-0.52%	1.14%	1.11%	10.15%	-0.27%	4.50%
KO	62.27	-0.03	-0.05%	-0.02%	-2.84%	-0.83%	28.18%	8.35%	18.32%	28.29%
BUD	52.85	-0.11	-0.21%	-0.15%	-1.20%	3.10%	7.38%	5.72%	2.15%	7.03%
WFMI	41.55	0.20	0.48%	-0.50%	0.12%	-1.54%	-8.64%	-15.13%	7.95%	-11.50%
MO	75.96	-0.27	-0.35%	-2.14%	-2.31%	-0.03%	17.01%	9.25%	8.64%	17.39%

XLP (consumer staples) lost ground over the present calendar week, falling from 29.34 to 29.03.

PG was a winner this week.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NVS	54.83	0.39	0.72%	1.22%	-2.52%	-4.44%	-5.69%	-0.24%	-2.04%	-5.02%
UNH	58.28	-0.08	-0.14%	0.29%	2.19%	6.43%	10.86%	20.34%	11.86%	8.61%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
JNJ	67.38	0.05	0.07%	0.07%	-0.72%	-1.49%	1.48%	2.56%	9.56%	1.45%
GSK	50.75	-0.57	-1.11%	0.04%	-5.90%	-2.82%	-5.69%	-4.61%	-3.24%	-3.41%
AET	57.87	0.09	0.16%	-0.38%	-0.14%	3.91%	34.96%	6.63%	16.09%	33.25%
DNA	67.51	0.38	0.57%	-0.66%	-3.20%	-11.45%	-17.47%	-13.47%	-10.74%	-16.77%
AMGN	47.06	-0.30	-0.63%	-1.05%	-4.78%	-15.15%	-31.20%	-16.81%	-14.92%	-31.34%
PFE	22.90	-0.02	-0.09%	-1.38%	-3.13%	-2.97%	-12.89%	-6.26%	-10.65%	-12.16%
BMY	27.17	-0.22	-0.80%	-2.58%	-5.69%	-7.59%	2.99%	-5.73%	-14.10%	3.27%

IYH (healthcare) this calendar week had a loss from 72.30 to 71.25.

MRK and PFE were losers.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	211.94	-0.01	0.00%	4.57%	1.66%	-5.54%	5.59%	-2.21%	-3.21%	5.55%
LEH	64.66	0.53	0.83%	3.74%	5.36%	4.81%	-17.77%	4.75%	-14.83%	-17.10%
MS	53.22	-0.10	-0.19%	3.60%	6.02%	1.68%	-34.80%	-15.52%	-37.30%	-34.77%
DB	129.70	0.88	0.68%	3.42%	-1.34%	-0.61%	-4.17%	1.02%	-9.69%	-3.21%
CS	60.17	0.57	0.96%	2.61%	-2.45%	-0.18%	-14.18%	-9.29%	-14.75%	-14.04%
UBS	46.10	0.45	0.99%	1.74%	-4.42%	-6.62%	-24.91%	-13.43%	-22.51%	-23.70%
HBC	83.89	-0.18	-0.21%	0.71%	-1.97%	0.24%	-9.77%	-9.41%	-8.91%	-8.63%
JPM	43.26	-0.38	-0.87%	-0.16%	-5.46%	-0.89%	-10.01%	-5.59%	-11.64%	-11.57%
C	29.29	-0.27	-0.91%	-2.01%	-5.55%	-9.29%	-46.99%	-37.24%	-43.47%	-47.58%
MER	52.97	-0.23	-0.43%	-2.81%	-8.40%	-7.73%	-43.41%	-25.69%	-38.42%	-43.38%

Traders are still not too interested in the plans to bail out bankers. XLF (Financials) dropped on the week from 29.28 to 28.86, including a loss on Friday of 0.15 or -0.52 pct.

The big losers on Friday were C (-0.91 pct) and JPM (-0.87 pct). UBS and CS were up +1.0 pct each on Friday.

Watch for the share dilution to come in this sector. Balance sheets will need to be shored up to maintain reserves before the full SIV losses are taken.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ORCL	22.97	-0.07	-0.30%	3.94%	6.29%	12.16%	31.18%	6.10%	15.72%	33.55%
INFY	45.55	-0.07	-0.15%	2.57%	6.18%	10.45%	-18.40%	-5.87%	-11.43%	-17.05%
ADBE	42.93	0.59	1.39%	1.80%	-2.19%	0.42%	7.54%	-1.67%	6.21%	3.37%
INTC	26.76	-0.07	-0.26%	1.33%	-1.47%	1.59%	31.50%	3.48%	11.87%	31.05%
QCOM	39.57	-0.11	-0.28%	1.15%	-0.73%	-4.47%	5.63%	-6.37%	-8.95%	5.02%
SAP	51.67	0.22	0.43%	0.72%	-1.75%	0.62%	-2.88%	-11.93%	1.29%	-2.73%
ADSK	50.26	0.41	0.82%	-0.48%	-0.14%	5.90%	23.92%	0.58%	5.21%	23.98%
CTSH	34.92	0.46	1.33%	-0.54%	4.11%	10.61%	-10.19%	-12.48%	-8.83%	-10.32%
CSCO	27.56	-0.23	-0.83%	-2.55%	-5.16%	-2.10%	-0.65%	-16.81%	-1.04%	0.51%
SNDK	33.54	-0.31	-0.92%	-7.07%	-10.42%	-11.97%	-19.61%	-39.13%	-31.04%	-21.06%

SMH (semi-conductor) dropped from 33.12 to 32.63. Three weeks ago it was 33.42.

On Friday, ADBE and CTSH had solid gains of +1.39 pct and +1.33 pct respectively.

I continue advising traders to watch the Big Ten of Nasdaq in order to get a feel for where the market is headed.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) dropped from 30.26 to 29.85 this calendar week.

T and VZ were both up on the week. On Friday, T jumped +1.0 pct and VZ was up +0.54 pct on the day.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU (Utilities) dropped only from 42.99 to 42.92 on the calendar week thanks to a gain of +0.32 (+0.75 pct) on Friday in a safe-haven move like I saw for Cons. Staples (XLP).

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.01	2.98	2.86	2.93
6 Month	3.29	3.26	3.19	3.24
2 Year	3.09	3.20	3.19	3.18
3 Year	3.04	3.15	3.13	3.11
5 Year	3.49	3.61	3.59	3.49
10 Year	4.07	4.20	4.18	4.03
30 Year	4.49	4.61	4.58	4.43

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.11	3.09	3.01	3.21
2yr AAA	3.12	3.10	3.11	3.24
2yr A	3.37	3.58	3.59	3.36
5yr AAA	3.35	3.37	3.27	3.33
5yr AA	3.35	3.37	3.28	3.28
5yr A	3.51	3.53	3.53	3.43
10yr AAA	3.87	3.87	3.81	3.71
10yr AA	3.76	3.78	3.40	3.56
10yr A	4.10	4.10	4.04	3.94
20yr AAA	4.59	4.44	4.61	4.38
20yr AA	4.72	4.57	4.41	4.59
20yr A	4.60	4.65	4.62	4.74

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.28	4.34	4.47	4.35
2yr A	4.46	4.57	4.53	4.68
5yr AAA	4.60	4.72	4.71	4.62
5yr AA	4.91	4.99	4.96	4.82
5yr A	4.79	5.00	4.87	4.70
10yr AAA	5.03	5.24	5.31	5.10
10yr AA	5.32	5.52	5.44	5.51
10yr A	5.45	5.79	5.74	5.59
20yr AAA	5.32	5.40	5.48	5.60
20yr AA	5.76	5.85	5.85	5.74
20yr A	6.19	6.31	6.26	6.06

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This week, US Treasury yields dropped a bit more as Bond prices lifted. The yield for the 2-year dropped -10 basis points to 3.09 pct; the 5-year yield dropped -10 bp to 3.49 pct; the 10-year -11 bp to 4.07 pct and the 30-year -9 bp to 4.49 pct. That’s a two week rally in what I think is a combined safe-haven and Yen rally play (ie, Carry Trade unwind).

I am still somewhat surprised that the short-term liquidity boost by central banks didn’t have a stronger impact on US bond prices. We’ll just have to watch for what happens after New Year’s when these funds need to be repaid to the central bank lenders.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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This week, TLT gained from 91.67 to 92.48 while TIP moved only from 105.10 to 105.11.

After year-end, I am expecting some fireworks as central bank funds have to be repaid the massive short-term borrowing they made to banks to avert a year-end liquidity crisis.

If the cb’s are repaid, without apparent difficulty, then Bond prices will likely rally because the economy is slowing. But if there are problems in settlement (even possible failures at financial institutions) or if the central banks extend these emergency loans, then I have to believe rates are going to rise and bond prices fall.

The charts are showing the opposite picture though. Looking through the squiggly Stochastics for the Daily and now the Weekly data, it appears that bond prices could rally a bit more. If so, maybe that’s an indication the central banks will extend the loan window an extra couple weeks. That wouldn’t be good for equities though.

Let’s wait a week or two before discussing this any deeper that that.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	38.34	-1.27	-3.21%	7.55%	10.30%	18.37%	-35.95%	-36.95%	-41.49%	-36.21%
FRE	32.76	-0.94	-2.79%	4.07%	0.92%	11.01%	-51.75%	-44.48%	-46.11%	-52.08%
AGG	101.14	0.54	0.54%	-0.04%	0.48%	-0.64%	1.23%	1.12%	3.03%	1.43%
CFC	8.750	-0.290	-3.21%	-0.23%	-13.19%	-5.91%	-79.22%	-53.97%	-75.90%	-79.58%
SHY	82.06	0.10	0.12%	-0.34%	-0.02%	-0.49%	2.52%	0.98%	2.57%	2.65%
IEF	86.61	0.69	0.80%	-0.39%	0.74%	-0.97%	4.75%	3.25%	7.36%	5.01%
TLT	92.48	1.42	1.56%	-0.59%	1.59%	-2.49%	3.83%	4.24%	9.70%	4.54%
TIP	105.11	0.63	0.60%	-0.60%	0.61%	-1.56%	5.93%	3.02%	6.83%	6.39%

The whole issue of Countrywide (CFC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) could become a red alert at any moment. On Friday, CFC and FNM were both down -3.21 pct and FRE was down -2.79 pct. Yes, there has been some recent buying, but I prefer to call that short-covering to book some profits before year-end, and some bottom-fishing, which I think is stupid (but it’s not my money!).

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB was higher this week +4.28 (+1.21 pct) W/W from 354.23 to 358.51, almost a carbon copy of the previous two weeks.

I recall saying that when the 320 threshold was broken, the US economy would be broken. Maybe it died, and we just can’t hear sounds? Do you think?

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is presently at 348.07 (up W/W from 344.61) and the 200-day MA is now 324.50 (up from 323.43), and still rising.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) jumped from 91.31 to 96.00, which is a gain of +4.69/bbl (+5.14 pct).

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 92.29, up W/W from 91.41, and the 200d MA is 76.09, up W/W from 75.33. The current price is well above the 50-day MA.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD gained +31.29 W/W (+3.86 pct) to close Friday at 842.70 up from 811.41. It lifted on Friday +1.31 pct, just like the previous two Friday’s.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 803.06 and the 200d MA is 713.74.

And this week the gold stocks rallied a lot again instead of pulling back as they had done two weeks earlier after the bullion started rallying. What this means to me is that the traders are nervous that bullion prices could be cut on a heartbeat and so they are reluctant to power up the shares.

I still think this sector is in trouble, but I did explain a week ago, right before this huge rally week that something was up and that I didn’t want you to miss a rally if in fact it came.

What I wrote in this space four weeks ago still applies, “So, yes, I do believe that any pullback to the mid to low 700’s would only be a temporary phenomenon. The reason is, as I wrote two weeks ago, “Only the central banks like to give the stuff away, and pretty soon they will be switching their selling habit for a buying habit because the price of gold is going a whole lot higher. (And) As and when that gold price soars, there will be a return to goldminer equities, and that will be the time to look seriously at the juniors and the miners that are steeply levered to higher gold prices. However, I think that most likely the options and futures on the gold physical will be the next great market play after the cycle has dropped to a bottom. Now I don’t know where that bottom will be, other than by looking at the continuous RSI and MACD data series, and the MA prices I give you, but I do expect it to be much lower than the current price… (This) is my thesis: Fairly soon, there will be a purging of all speculative accounts at HB&B -- both theirs and the clients -- and all goods go on sale. In terms of gold and silver, that means a blow-out to come to clean out the weak hands and lay the groundwork for the Gold Bull to return… Nobody knows today how the cycle will play out tomorrow. It could be in harmony with the broad equities market or it could run counter-cyclical. Right now, I’m thinking the latter because I foresee higher $USD prices as the economy slows, and the broad market falls. Moreover, I think most traders now realize the overspending by government problem is not just an American phenomenon. It is all over the world, and all currencies are being depreciated. That means any weakness in the gold market may be short-lived, and a move to the cycle bottom could happen quickly, so don’t stray too far from the Buy button.”

A week ago I added, “As kaimu points out, there are some good speculative values in the market. I am more hesitant because having been the executioner before, I know what happens when margin calls go out to over-leveraged traders. It isn’t pretty to see babies go out with the bathwater.”

Kaimu will be aussie down under for the next five weeks or so. Hopefully he’ll make it to PDAC 2008 on March 2-5 in Toronto. We’ll probably have about 3 dozed Caraistas in for that. That’s when I will do some book signing too.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.57 (+3.98 pct W/W) to close at 14.90.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is 14.49 and the 200d MA is 13.49.

A week ago at 14.33, I wrote, “It will be interesting to see if $SILVER can take out the 50-d MA in this rally or if the usual resistance will force the price back. You know my thoughts, but the jury is still out, and this is a jury of millions.” Everybody, it seems, is a silver bug these days.

Seven weeks ago, I wrote, “On August 17, the price hit a low of 11.06, so the move to 15.55 in twelve weeks is a gain of +40.6 pct.” Then I added, “I don’t think we’ll see that again for a while.”

The longer the price doesn’t get back to that Aug 17 $15.55 cycle high, the more likely sellers will come in and knock it down to a lower base from which to try a major rally. That still is what I am anticipating.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT gained +2 7.30 this week to close at 1539.50, which means the price is now much higher than five week’s ago (1482.50), which means I really missed a good rally. Ah, but I am catching the sun, the average day is 82 degrees, and life is junkanoo.

The 50d MA for $PLAT is 1469.77. The 200d MA is 1345.40.

As I wrote here four weeks ago, “the charts for Platinum and Palladium show they are entering a bottoming pattern, which might be an indication that gold and silver are ready to bottom as well.” Yes, I saw it happen but didn’t believe it. As you know, I also wrote back then, “But I don’t think so because gold and silver are taking their cue from the strengthening $USD, which is going to push those prices lower.”

For a while, that’s what happened to the $USD and gold & silver as plat and pall lifted.

I could beg off but twice wrong doesn’t make a right. Good traders never use the word ‘hope’.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL gained 11.85/oz to move from 358.20 to 370.05.

The 50d MA is 366.84 (which is falling for a third straight week) and the 200d MA is 364.67.

The $PALL is now trading between both MA’s, which is, in tennis, no man’s land.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained another bit +7.10/contract to close at 307.20. The week was held back by a loss of -1.92 pct on Friday.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 317.66, down from 328.81 just two weeks ago, and the 200d MA is 338.39, up from 337.82 a week ago, so the current price (307.20) is still below the 50MA and 200MA, and may, despite the small rally of the past two weeks, continue pointing traders to a recession.

In fact, the $COPPER price started selling off as soon as it hit its falling 50d-MA, which is a distinct negative. That is consistent with the Bear market in equities and the slowing economy.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	18.77	0.88	4.92%	14.52%	5.21%	4.74%	64.36%	25.30%	63.36%	56.55%
ABX	42.88	2.60	6.45%	14.29%	12.19%	4.46%	43.75%	6.45%	48.94%	38.46%
AEM	54.50	3.07	5.97%	12.72%	13.02%	11.18%	40.03%	9.44%	51.85%	30.66%
GG	34.80	1.33	3.97%	12.11%	6.65%	3.63%	27.29%	13.87%	48.15%	21.55%
AUY	12.98	0.32	2.53%	11.99%	0.62%	-1.07%	5.27%	10.19%	16.62%	-1.07%
BVN	59.17	2.55	4.50%	11.60%	6.08%	1.20%	114.31%	23.84%	60.53%	112.00%
MDG	36.08	0.69	1.95%	9.17%	1.81%	-0.69%	37.24%	9.00%	30.96%	29.92%
GFI	14.55	0.12	0.83%	6.91%	-4.96%	-14.36%	-20.62%	-19.57%	-6.91%	-23.14%
NEM	48.99	1.04	2.17%	3.38%	0.35%	-4.67%	10.84%	9.52%	26.69%	7.74%

This week, $XAU (the Philadelphia Exchange goldminer index) gained +8.37 (+4.98 pct) to move from 167.96 to 176.33. No big deal; it’s back to where it was three weeks ago.

The goldminer ETF’s (the US’s) GDX (+2.89 pct) and (Canada’s) XGD (+3.26 pct) joined the party.

The 50d MA for $XAU is 174.48 down from 175.85. So the 50d-MA has dropped again! Two weeks ago I opined, “The 50d MA for $XAU is 175.94 and the 200d MA is 151.56, which are both up on the week. I venture one of them (the 50-d MA) will be down next week.” That happened, and happened again this week.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained!

The 200d MA is 153.14.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The following data is a simulation of M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates.”

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Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

This week the $USD dropped -1.54 pct to fall from 77.74 to 76.20 (-1.97 pct).

A week ago, having called the bottom, I wrote that “I didn’t like some of the trading I saw in the $USD from late Monday through the rest of the week. We’ll have to keep our eye on it.” Sure enough, the US Dollar plunged this week.

Where to from here, I don’t have a feel for yet. It’s obviously falling, but the US authorities might be in the mood to take some corrective post holiday action.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) this week jumped +3.55 (+2.47 pct) to close at 147.12, up from 143.57. Who says it’s always quiet over Christmas?

The Euro’s 50d MA is 145.61 and the 200d MA is 138.68.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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After the Pound dropped for four weeks, it rallied +0.83 (+0.42 pct) this week to close at 199.28.

The 50d MA is now 204.74, and the 200d MA is 201.42.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

After the Japanese Yen ($XJY) had three consecutive losing weeks, this week it gained +1.11 pct to close at 88.63, including a gain on Friday of +0.75 pct.

After the previous Friday’s loss of -0.87 pct, I wrote: “(Previously) “I thought the Carry Trade was beginning to unwind. Maybe the Bulls can keep it going?” I think Friday, they did.” That was that week, and this is now. It does look like the Carry Trade is unwinding, which is not good for equities.

The 50d MA of the Yen is 89.07 and the 200d MA is 85.36.

“As the Yen falls, the money flow is into US and Japanese equities.” And vice versa.

But you heard that already. :-)

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Loonie (Cdn Dollar) jumped from 100.80 to 101.90, for a gain of +1.09 pct, which is consistent with the rally in oil and gold this week.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 102.14, and the 200d MA is 95.64.

It may have rallied again this week, but is still a far cry from 110.17, just a few weeks ago.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

I have added another 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together.

The domestic equity markets are, of course, quite different than ETF and closed-end fund securities that are $USD denominated and trade in the US.

The international markets were mostly weak this week with the exception of Russia (which had a super Friday) and Canada. The very weak $USD this week has maintained a boost to the oil and gold powered markets, but it didn’t have much impact on the rest of the world, which could be an omen.

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWC	32.22	0.12	0.37%	3.94%	-0.15%	0.91%	30.45%	-0.46%	10.53%	29.45%
EWZ	81.77	-0.34	-0.41%	3.22%	-0.76%	2.92%	75.10%	10.37%	34.14%	74.87%
QQQQ	51.86	-0.07	-0.13%	1.89%	0.70%	0.31%	19.94%	0.88%	9.13%	20.27%
TRF	72.10	1.85	2.63%	0.88%	-7.43%	6.11%	-18.58%	4.99%	8.18%	-17.34%
IEV	115.76	0.96	0.84%	0.51%	-3.28%	-3.44%	9.62%	-2.55%	-0.41%	10.38%
SPY	147.30	-0.37	-0.25%	0.34%	-1.18%	0.08%	4.19%	-3.46%	-2.05%	3.58%
EWJ	13.26	0.15	1.14%	0.30%	-3.91%	-5.62%	-6.62%	-7.40%	-7.72%	-6.55%
FXI	171.30	-0.80	-0.46%	-0.81%	-2.70%	-7.36%	47.16%	-4.83%	32.26%	52.40%
EWU	24.39	0.04	0.16%	-1.45%	-4.47%	-4.01%	3.57%	-5.47%	-4.05%	3.39%
IFN	62.20	2.33	3.89%	-1.89%	-5.63%	5.39%	37.19%	14.55%	44.52%	34.78%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The major US stock indexes were all down this week, but the losses were not significant and the trading volume was quiet, so I take nothing from that.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
T	42.44	0.42	1.00%	5.41%	1.53%	11.60%	21.43%	0.31%	4.17%	19.55%
AA	36.86	-0.13	-0.35%	4.15%	1.46%	0.85%	25.67%	-5.78%	-6.21%	22.78%
XOM	95.00	1.33	1.42%	3.12%	2.46%	7.24%	28.19%	2.64%	13.64%	22.85%
CAT	73.16	0.43	0.59%	2.31%	-1.43%	2.01%	19.62%	-6.72%	-7.50%	19.33%
GE	37.34	0.15	0.40%	2.25%	-0.64%	-2.10%	-1.66%	-9.81%	-2.05%	-0.37%
AIG	57.94	-0.07	-0.12%	2.11%	1.56%	1.06%	-19.70%	-14.35%	-17.76%	-19.39%
VZ	44.62	0.24	0.54%	1.83%	-0.89%	5.04%	17.98%	0.77%	8.64%	19.56%
MSFT	36.12	0.15	0.42%	1.69%	2.56%	7.53%	20.96%	22.61%	21.09%	20.48%
PG	74.25	0.36	0.49%	1.45%	-0.20%	0.13%	15.04%	5.56%	21.01%	15.15%
HD	26.62	-0.15	-0.57%	1.33%	-3.70%	-4.52%	-35.19%	-17.94%	-32.64%	-33.00%
INTC	26.76	-0.07	-0.26%	1.33%	-1.47%	1.59%	31.50%	3.48%	11.87%	31.05%
BA	88.25	-0.63	-0.71%	1.22%	-0.34%	-5.32%	-1.03%	-15.94%	-7.26%	-0.84%
MCD	59.50	0.31	0.52%	1.21%	-3.27%	1.97%	35.63%	9.23%	17.01%	34.13%
IBM	110.09	0.49	0.45%	1.15%	1.77%	2.41%	13.18%	-6.54%	3.91%	13.53%
HON	61.20	0.01	0.02%	0.84%	0.91%	11.52%	35.70%	2.91%	8.55%	34.62%
MMM	85.09	-0.31	-0.36%	0.71%	-2.11%	1.77%	8.73%	-9.07%	-2.03%	8.87%
UTX	76.87	0.03	0.04%	0.62%	-0.95%	1.90%	22.38%	-4.49%	8.13%	22.38%
WMT	48.08	0.31	0.65%	0.48%	-0.52%	1.14%	1.11%	10.15%	-0.27%	4.50%
HPQ	51.36	-0.25	-0.48%	0.39%	-1.93%	0.61%	23.40%	3.15%	15.13%	24.18%
MRK	58.71	0.14	0.24%	0.29%	-1.81%	-2.02%	33.37%	13.58%	16.30%	34.81%
DIS	32.42	-0.01	-0.03%	0.28%	-1.04%	-1.19%	-5.20%	-5.73%	-4.22%	-6.08%
DD	44.30	-0.10	-0.23%	0.25%	-4.15%	-3.88%	-9.67%	-10.61%	-13.02%	-9.65%
JNJ	67.38	0.05	0.07%	0.07%	-0.72%	-1.49%	1.48%	2.56%	9.56%	1.45%
KO	62.27	-0.03	-0.05%	-0.02%	-2.84%	-0.83%	28.18%	8.35%	18.32%	28.29%
JPM	43.26	-0.38	-0.87%	-0.16%	-5.46%	-0.89%	-10.01%	-5.59%	-11.64%	-11.57%
AXP	50.84	-0.26	-0.51%	-0.37%	-5.57%	-10.63%	-15.77%	-14.37%	-16.96%	-16.85%
PFE	22.90	-0.02	-0.09%	-1.38%	-3.13%	-2.97%	-12.89%	-6.26%	-10.65%	-12.16%
C	29.29	-0.27	-0.91%	-2.01%	-5.55%	-9.29%	-46.99%	-37.24%	-43.47%	-47.58%
MO	75.96	-0.27	-0.35%	-2.14%	-2.31%	-0.03%	17.01%	9.25%	8.64%	17.39%
GM	25.30	-0.76	-2.92%	-4.46%	-6.12%	-12.09%	-14.09%	-31.06%	-33.68%	-17.37%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ).

(T: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)

(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)

A week ago, I wrote, “On the 28th, Value Line will report on AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), both of which have had extreme trading moves in recent weeks.” Both stocks were up again this week, which I see mostly as a safe haven play into high dividend stocks.

Sorry but I really haven’t had the chance today to review the Value Line reports. I think that VL is rather more bullish with T than VZ, which I agree with.

If you get the chance to pick either of them off on a pull-back, I am sure the annualized Total Returns for the next couple years would be rather satisfactory to income oriented accounts.

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 14: next one is due Mar. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 7: next one is due Mar. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Dec. 28: next one is due Mar. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)

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Wrap up:

Regarding the delays in publishing the “Lessons from the Trader Wizard”, this has been my fault in moving countries and switching computer platforms and back again. A lot of stuff fell between the cracks. But everything is stable now, and we move on.

Be sure to complete the order at the special rate by January 2 at 9am, if you plan to.

Regarding the costs of shipping, I will have a discussion this week with the publisher to see if we can do an electronic version. The publisher has control at this point, and contracts are involved, so all I can do is try.

The publisher did send me this encouraging note on Saturday, “We are seeing a very steady and healthy stream of orders and fielding a great many calls asking for release dates, we will send an email blast out to all those who have bought it pre pub as soon as we are on the presses to keep them in the loop as to when they can expect it. As soon as this is in production, we can focus on finalising a marketing plan. I have had preliminary discussions with Chapters on Bloor re a signing, ps let me know if that will be of interest. I had a retired (anon major HB&B) CEO call just yesterday wanting signed copies if at all possible, I think he may fly in from (anon city) for it!”

On Monday, I get to do the final sign-off with the latest graphic they added. Finally.

Btw, this is a personal book that answers what I feel every trader should know as a foundation for trading. I threw in the kitchen sink in terms of what I think anyone can understand. The personal touch, as you would expect, makes it an easier read, but, make no mistake, this is a serious book with the intention of teaching, and it’s over 400 pages long. My opinions are restricted to methodologies and markets and trading instruments rather than market prices.

I do intend to write two more books in 2008, one of them on how to select quality companies for your portfolio, which I do in the Cara X00 series, and the other is the detailed trading tactics I use to trade the shares of those companies.

These two books may end up having multi-media interactive electronic versions as well as hard copy.

Speaking of copy, that’s it for WIR #52-07. It’s been a slice. Enjoy your party. I will be joining the US Embassy staff to watch the Junkanoo on a rooftop overlooking Bay Street here in Nassau. Now, that will be a party!

Today, I’m skipping the run and heading to Shoal. Bahamian grouper and snapper the way it should be cooked. Mmm hmmm.

Ciao.

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