Not having a Santa hat means, I hope, I'll just be forced to chug another beer or two. Tough life. Now I have to get out of my swim suit and into a pair of jogging shorts.

Back to the market.

Last week I wrote: “I won’t sugarcoat this: Goldilocks died. Inflation is surging in the US for both producers (PPI) and consumers (CPI), which has brought an end to the 2002-2007 Bull market. The market topped out in October. From that point, global equity markets will experience a series of lower lows and lower highs, which is the definition of a Bear market.” Same old.

Despite a +205 point rally in the DJIA on Friday, taking the index to a 13450 weekly close, up from the prior week’s 13340, nothing has changed in this market other than international central banks are throwing fiat on the fire. Inflation is now the grinch.

The DJIA is off its 52-week high of 14198 on Oct 11. As I say, the line in the sand for the Bull-Bear struggle is 12800, but every time the market threatens it, the interventionists decree additional printing of money to stave a price collapse. Instead, we now have a value collapse.

The problem is inflation, and has been since Hank Paulson took over as US Treasury Secretary and his former chief economist at Goldman Sachs as head trader for the FOMC.

Just remember; Paulson is a Pied Piper and Cara the Rat Catcher.

These people in government and Humungous Bank & Broker never seem to accept the fact that the market is bigger than all the abusive power and insider trading they can load on it. It is their arrogance that pulls them down time and again, as it will this time.

As previously opined, traders know that the Fed will have great difficulty lowering rates again, which would further weaken the $USD and lift the price of imported goods, including commodities such as oil. The US public cannot afford it, and they are fed up with the constant lies and misrepresentation from authorities regarding this issue.

The lower $USD policy had been in effect by the US authorities to raise the price of foreign currencies in order to make US Treasury securities more attractive, which was driving up the price of bonds and the yields lower, which was relieving the pressure on the stressed mortgage and housing market in the US.

The problem with a lower dollar policy is that it invites inflation. If pushed to extreme limits, that inflation will become extreme. It now has.

The collateral positive through this period was that non-US investors were experiencing a wealth effect, and lower domestic inflation, which also encouraged them to buy equities, which drove these markets to record highs.

The $USD rallied hard and the gold price dropped sharply on Friday as traders expected a worsening liquidity crisis. The calamity in forex and precious metal markets will continue for several weeks and probably months before gold falls to probably 730, possibly as low as 650, and the $USD moves higher to at least 82, which will relieve some pressure on the US inflation front. At that point, I anticipate Crude Oil to be priced in the 75 range.

During the liquidity crisis and tightening process, I anticipate the US equity markets to possibly fall back to 10 and 2, which is to say to 10,000 for the DJIA and 2000 for the Nasdaq Composite.

You all know that corporate profits are the single key factor in determining stock prices. So how much profit increase, in the aggregate, do you think the US has seen this past year? Does anybody here know?

If you listen to the Administration and HB&B you would have to believe that corporate profits are close to +20 pct Y/Y, and certainly not less than +10 pct. You have been lied to and totally misled as usual.

Without adjustment for inflation, US corporate profits are up just +2.1 pct year-over-year. Adjusted for inflation, they are DOWN.

Moreover they are sinking FAST. In the aggregate, corporate profits in the 3Q fell to a $1.410 trillion annual rate from $1.441 trillion in the second quarter. This will get worse.

If you check the records, the same thing happened, except for two quarters, every quarter from 1Q1995 to 2Q1999. It was only through the massive printing of fiat money under the Clinton regime (Goldman Sachs Bob Rubin then as Treasury Secretary) that pumped up equity prices until they broke.

From 1Q2003, except for about eight quarters, total corporate profits, on a Y/Y basis, have been falling. Interventionists with their money printing habit and HB&B’s encouragement of corporate share buy-backs has given the public a totally different impression.

Inflation now has stopped that game. Interest rates will have to rise; credit expansion will have to be curtailed; financial institutions and corporations will have to fail; and the losses written off before the next Bull cycle can commence.

Anybody who sugarcoats this situation is either incompetent or refusing to act in a fit and proper manner, and ought to be held accountable.

What I am suggesting here is not a typical Christmas message: traders must be aware that the next drop in the market could be the big one. One of these days could be another October 19, 1987, when traders could not reach their brokers because their brokers were too busy selling stocks for Friends & Family or jumping from windows. You can trade the market day to day on the long side for gains, if you will, but your time horizon must be short and your stops tight.

Friday’s rally was not unexpected. “Maromatics” in this community called it early in the week, saying that quadruple witching would shake up the market. I too told you I didn’t like the turn in the $USD in the closing hour on Monday. As the Dollar weakened after that, oil and gold strengthened, and I could feel the market’s arteries start pumping money back in.

An attempt to revive the dead, as I see it.

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Global Economics Review

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Inflation is surging in many countries for both producers and consumers as shown by the following report.

Econoday International Report.

It is important to review the following reports on US corporate profits and price inflation, and CPI. This is not a healthy picture.

Econoday Report on US Corporate Profits.

Econoday Report on US PPI.

Econoday Report on US CPI.

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals.

“Jock” reports:

Of the Cara 100 components, are 27 GREEN (last week: 19) 32 are RED - (last week: 40)

Cara 100 red/green chart

Ticker	Name	Score -5wks	Score -4wks	Score -3wks	Score -2wks	Score -1wks	Score -0wks
ABB	ABB Ltd.	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
ABV	COMP DE BEBA AM ADS	-2	-2	+2	+2	-2	-2
ADBE	Adobe Systems Inc.	-2	-2	-2	+2	-2	-2
AET	Aetna Inc.	+0	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2
AMAT	Applied Materials Inc.	+0	-2	+0	+0	-2	+0
ATVI	Activision Inc.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
BA	Boeing Co.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	+0
BBBY	Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
BBD	Banco Bradesco S.A.	+0	-2	+2	+2	+0	+0
BC	Brunswick Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2
BDK	Black & Decker Corp.	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
BHP	BHP Billiton Ltd.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
BMY	Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	-2	-2	+2	+2	-2	-2
CCJ	Cameco Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
CCL	Carnival Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
CEO	CNOOC Ltd.	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2
CHA	China Telecom Corp. Ltd.	-2	-2	+2	+2	-2	+0
CHL	China Mobile Limited	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
CHRW	CH Robinson Worldwide Inc.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
COST	Costco Wholesale Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0
CSCO	Cisco Systems, Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0
CTSH	Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+2
CVX	Chevron Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2	+2
DB	Deutsche Bank AG	-2	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0
DELL	Dell Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
DEO	Diageo plc	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
DIS	Walt Disney Co.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
DOW	Dow Chemical Co.	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2	-2
DNA	Genentech Inc.	-2	+0	+2	-2	-2	-2
ECA	EnCana Corp.	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0
ERJ	EMBRAER - Empresa Brasileira de Aeron�utica S.A.	+2	-2	-2	+2	+2	-2
ERTS	Electronic Arts Inc.	+0	-2	+0	-2	+2	+2
EXC	Exelon Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+2	+2	+0
GE	General Electric Co.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
GFI	Gold Fields Ltd.	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2	-2
GGB	Gerdau S.A.	+0	-2	+0	+2	-2	+2
GOL	GOL Linhas A�reas Inteligentes S.A.	+2	+2	+0	+2	-2	+0
GOOG	Google Inc.	+0	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0
GRMN	Garmin Ltd.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
GS	Goldman Sachs Group Inc.	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	-2
GSK	Glaxosmithkline plc	-2	+0	+2	+2	+2	-2
HBC	HSBC HLDGS PLC ADS	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2	+0
HDB	HDFC Bank Ltd.	+0	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0
IBKR	Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
IBN	ICICI Bank Ltd.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
IMO	Imperial Oil Ltd.	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0	+2
INFY	Infosys Technologies Ltd.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2
INTC	Intel Corp.	+0	-2	+2	+2	+0	+2
JCP	J. C. Penney Company, Inc	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	+2	+2	+2	+2	+0	+0
KB	Kookmin Bank	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
KO	Coca-Cola Co.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
KSS	Kohl's Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
LEH	Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.	+2	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2
LLTC	Linear Technology Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
LYO	Lyondell Chemical Co.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+2
MBT	Mobile Telesystems OJSC	+0	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0
MCO	Moody's Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
MFC	Manulife Financial Corporation	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
MICC	Millicom International Cellular SA	+2	+0	+2	+2	+0	+2
MU	Micron Technology Inc.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2
NKE	Nike Inc.	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0	+2
NOK	Nokia Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
NTES	Netease.com Inc.	+0	+0	+0	+2	+0	-2
NUE	Nucor Corp.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
ORCL	Oracle Corp.	-2	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2
OXPS	optionsXpress Holdings, Inc.	+2	+0	+2	+0	+2	+2
PAYX	Paychex Inc.	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
PBR	PETROLEO BRASILEIRO	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+2
PG	Procter & Gamble Co.	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0	+0
PTR	PetroChina Co. Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2
QCOM	QUALCOMM Inc.	+0	-2	+0	-2	-2	+0
RIO	COMPANHIA VALE ADS	+0	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0
RIMM	Research In Motion Ltd.	+0	+0	+0	-2	+0	+2
RY	Royal Bank of Canada	-2	-2	+0	-2	-2	-2
SBUX	Starbucks Corp.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
SLW	Silver Wheaton Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+2	-2	+2
SNDK	SanDisk Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0
STO	StatoilHydro ASA	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
SU	Suncor Energy Inc.	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0	+2
SWK	Stanley Works	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
TCK	Teck Cominco Ltd.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
TEF	Telefonica SA	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0	+0
TGP	Teekay LNG Partners LP.	-2	-2	-2	+0	+0	+0
TGT	Target Corp.	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2	-2
TM	Toyota Motor Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+2	-2	-2
TOT	Total SA	+0	+2	+2	+2	+0	+0
TS	Tenaris SA	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
TT	Trane Inc	+2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
UBS	UBS AG	-2	-2	+0	+0	-2	-2
UTX	United Technologies Corp.	-2	-2	+0	+2	+2	+2
VCP	Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A.	+2	+0	+2	+2	+0	+0
VIP	Vimpel-Communications	+0	+0	+2	+2	+2	+2
WAG	Walgreen Co.	+0	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0
WBK	Westpac Banking Corp.	+0	-2	+0	+0	+0	-2
WFMI	Whole Foods Market Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	+0
WHR	Whirlpool Corp.	+0	+0	+0	+2	+0	+0
WMT	Wal-Mart Stores Inc.	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2	+2
XOM	Exxon Mobil Corp.	-2	-2	+2	+2	+2	+2
YHOO	Yahoo! Inc.	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2	-2
Summary:	(+2/-2/other)	9/49/41	5/54/40	27/24/48	38/19/42	19/40/40	27/32/40
Net:	(+2)-(-2)	-40	-49	+3	+19	-21	-5

Components of major indices (green/red) were as follows:

In all indices, the number of red components decreased. In all but the DJ-65, the number of greens increased. The increased greens in the Russell 2000 was most impressive.
DJIA, NDX, COMPQX and Russell 2000 were GREEN. SP-500, and Wiltshire 4500 were neutral. Hang Seng stayed RED. The Shanghai composite rose from red to neutral. Bombay stayed neutral

The CRB commodity index rose to GREEN, while the US dollar index stayed GREEN.

GOLD stocks remained neutral, while SILVER stocks rose from red back to neutral.

BOTTOM LINE: This week, there was significant improvement.

Jock
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NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).

When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

Caraistas can ask Jock to explain the nuances of this system. Essentially it is the system I use with the exception that I use RSI instead of EMA. I also combine the use of three time horizons (based on monthly, weekly and daily price series data) in my analysis. I use the RSI for cycle studies and MACD for trend studies. I do this for individual stocks, then stocks in correlated groups (eg, gaming companies, gold producers, US retailers…), stocks in industries and sectors (using GICS coding) and across regional markets (actual domestic price data in international markets rather than $USD denominated and traded ETFs).

Once I can see how the market is acting, I use confirmation techniques by studying the relationships between equity prices and economic data (eg, lower US Industrial Production ought to negatively impact FDX), commodities (eg, hurt the buyer and help the seller), yields on fixed income (vs high dividend yield stocks), and international currency trends (eg, lower $USD helps US exporters and hurts US importers, ie, foreign exporters).

I see the market as a system, like the human mind and body. Watching cash flow into and out of stocks, industries and sectors is, to me, like watching a person breathe. If I were a medical clinician instead of a portfolio manager, I would be studying the data in order to improve the work-flow of patient care. For each patient, I would be watching for signs of stress, anxiety, change so that I could diagnose problems and recommend therapies.

For technical analysis study and approaches to trading, I do recommend Dr. Elder’s books and those of Martin Pring. But trading success will come quickest to traders who also use corporate fundamental and quantitative studies and economic studies.

In 1Q08, I shall compile a list of recommended books on all aspects of trading. I very much believe that traders need a thorough grounding in all aspects of trading.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA ino.com chart

DJIA stockcharts.com chart

DJIA=13,450 after a gain of +205 points on Friday.

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, DJIA=13,895.63)

The bearish trend direction must be confirmed in the Nasdaq-listed big cap tech stocks of which only MSFT and INTC are in the Dow 30 as well as by the Russell 2000 Small Caps. The R2000 started to pop on Thursday and the Techs as well. On Friday, however, the leaders were Energy and Gold as the $USD sank.

On the surface, I do not think Friday’s rally is sustainable. Inflation is too high and also on the rise, which is hurting buying power of consumers, which in turn is leading to lower corporate profits.

I do not believe that money by decree of the US Administration and the European Union is any solution. It is merely putting off the day of reckoning for HB&B and providing a longer window for insiders of these distressed financial institutions to be selling their shares.

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NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart

NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart

Nasdaq=2692. “Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, Nasdaq=2701.5)

Later, after I saw a short-term bottom, supported by strength in the Nasdaq 100 (non-financials), I wrote, “I think we’ll see a lift, but not for long, and this 2350-2400 level will be tested again in December.”

Clearly that did not occur, but I still believe there will be a major sell-off in the next couple weeks. A triple top is now in place. Without higher corporate profits, the share prices will sink as interest rates cannot be forced any lower due to the inflation situation.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

On Thursday, the shares of Oracle (ORCL) took off on corporate results. Then on Friday, the shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) did the same. Then eBay (EBAY) and Qualcomm (QCOM) prices followed suit. Despite the enthusiasm, however, prices of these stocks are just recovering to early November levels. Traders have to watch the resistance from the Bears as this Tech group attempts to set new higher price levels.

As you know, I am betting against it. Time will tell.

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week the scoreboard reads 7 up and 3 down, which is quite a change from the previous week’s 1 up and 9 down. Energy XLE remained as top performer with Telecom IYZ moving from #4 to #2.

On Friday, all my ETF’s rallied except for Utilities XLU, which dropped -0.58 pct on the day. XLE (+1.80 pct) was by far the best, setting a new record close of 79.30. This is high-risk territory, however, for XLE. The XLE Monthly RSI-7 is 79.4, but the Weekly and Daily RSI-7 are just above 70 and could give a significant Sell Alert with a single bad market session.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	79.30	1.80	2.32%	3.32%	3.96%	7.09%	40.16%	4.76%	12.64%	34.04%
IYZ	30.26	0.63	2.13%	2.82%	0.77%	6.18%	2.02%	-10.61%	-10.95%	3.52%
SMH	33.12	0.30	0.91%	1.38%	-0.90%	4.18%	-1.34%	-14.15%	-14.75%	-0.78%
XLB	42.27	0.70	1.68%	1.20%	-1.54%	6.96%	22.13%	1.68%	3.07%	22.06%
XLP	29.34	0.38	1.31%	1.10%	-0.41%	2.80%	11.64%	6.07%	7.87%	12.46%
IYH	72.30	0.84	1.18%	0.82%	-1.12%	3.06%	8.79%	2.22%	2.67%	8.49%
XLI	39.47	0.42	1.08%	0.03%	-2.06%	3.41%	12.04%	-2.86%	0.23%	12.04%
XLY	33.19	0.04	0.12%	-0.39%	-4.49%	-1.07%	-13.84%	-10.54%	-16.29%	-13.25%
XLU	42.99	-0.25	-0.58%	-0.44%	-2.69%	2.55%	16.76%	6.62%	8.95%	17.14%
XLF	29.28	0.24	0.83%	-0.64%	-6.30%	0.03%	-20.69%	-15.38%	-20.86%	-20.24%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) remained best performer (+3.32 pct), for whatever reason other than the huge move Friday (+2.32 pct) that occurred as the Japanese Yen cratered (-0.87 pct on the day). So, let’s call it the Carry Trade at work.

On Friday, I didn’t see evidence of dramatically higher crude oil prices (+0.27 pct on the day, but down as much on the week) or supply shortages and interruptions or evidence of economic growth.

The XOM was up +2.5 pct W/W to 93.43. Isn’t the market terrific? It’s possibly giving you yet another chance to sell XOM at 94 or better. You’ll look back in six months and say thank you, Mr. Market.

Canada’s SU and IMO were up +3.2 pct and +3.5 pct respectively W/W.

Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed this week down -0.24/bbl (-0.26 pct) to 91.31. But Friday, it was up +0.27 pct

“I have been saying that I think $WTIC is going lower and that in time will work itself down to about 75. In the interim, this is a day trader’s market, so you can expect hour to hour changes.”

The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is at 75.33, up from 74.58 the previous week. As I say, this average is “moving”. The 50-day MA is now at 91.41, up from 90.36 and obviously still rising, “so (as I wrote a few weeks ago) in a month or two, the 200-day MA will likely move up through 75, which is where I think the current price will eventually intersect it.”

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	113.20	5.20	4.81%	5.47%	6.08%	12.32%	127.17%	54.86%	83.77%	130.50%
IMO	54.00	1.74	3.33%	3.53%	4.33%	1.98%	51.43%	7.70%	15.48%	49.79%
SU	106.59	2.04	1.95%	3.22%	4.25%	4.14%	44.22%	11.12%	17.79%	35.49%
XOM	93.43	1.30	1.41%	2.47%	2.11%	5.82%	26.07%	1.21%	10.83%	23.14%
CEO	163.22	5.69	3.61%	2.27%	-8.79%	-6.03%	73.14%	5.43%	39.56%	84.24%
CVX	94.04	1.99	2.16%	2.20%	3.39%	8.50%	32.51%	-0.84%	13.51%	28.42%
TOT	80.46	0.99	1.25%	1.07%	-2.86%	-1.22%	13.37%	-1.20%	1.40%	11.94%
ECA	68.15	0.63	0.93%	0.78%	1.29%	0.32%	50.31%	8.85%	3.62%	43.26%
STO	29.39	0.60	2.08%	-1.08%	-2.71%	-9.09%	14.40%	-15.11%	-1.54%	13.26%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) gained +1.20 pct W/W, including +1.68 pct on Friday. So, Friday made the week for XLB, which it did for most of these sectors. The rest of the week was a loser. Now we have to see if the gains are sustainable.

Gerdau Steel of Brazil (GGB) closed the week up +6.6 pct. Like the other steels and base metals, the shares are priced to reflect a rapidly growing global economy, which is no longer the case. Check the RSI/MACD of these stocks to see the risk you hold.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	29.46	1.18	4.17%	6.58%	-1.50%	9.60%	79.42%	17.84%	15.44%	87.88%
AA	36.35	0.96	2.71%	3.30%	-1.52%	3.41%	23.93%	-2.81%	-9.89%	24.06%
MT	73.24	1.84	2.58%	2.75%	-0.93%	2.51%	79.51%	-3.77%	10.45%	74.80%
RIO	33.30	0.84	2.59%	1.22%	-8.77%	2.27%	15.54%	9.36%	-27.62%	14.12%
TCK	35.63	1.83	5.41%	1.08%	-8.48%	-5.84%	-48.55%	-25.80%	-21.12%	-50.99%
NUE	60.43	1.35	2.29%	0.83%	-2.50%	13.53%	10.88%	1.56%	-2.94%	8.59%
TS	44.57	0.99	2.27%	0.04%	-4.83%	-2.98%	-8.14%	-14.04%	-8.12%	-11.57%
RTP	420.33	15.67	3.87%	-0.51%	-10.19%	-3.61%	105.94%	27.92%	36.21%	102.38%
BHP	70.69	2.19	3.20%	-0.53%	-8.19%	-2.93%	81.86%	-2.54%	17.06%	81.30%
PKX	153.00	5.60	3.80%	-1.77%	-9.77%	-0.31%	92.62%	-15.94%	22.65%	82.49%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UTX	77.83	1.43	1.87%	1.49%	-0.31%	5.95%	23.91%	-2.01%	8.17%	24.01%
HON	60.71	0.02	0.03%	1.22%	3.76%	11.05%	34.61%	3.44%	7.68%	35.63%
ABB	28.00	0.99	3.67%	1.16%	-5.08%	3.13%	57.13%	9.46%	25.00%	59.18%
BA	89.07	1.88	2.16%	0.74%	-4.39%	-0.52%	-0.11%	-13.18%	-8.36%	-0.97%
GE	37.14	0.62	1.70%	0.62%	-0.24%	-1.41%	-2.19%	-9.96%	-4.28%	-1.67%
MMM	86.05	1.56	1.85%	0.14%	-0.16%	3.99%	9.95%	-6.14%	-1.56%	9.19%
CAT	72.73	1.22	1.71%	-0.90%	-1.98%	5.97%	18.92%	-6.95%	-10.73%	19.60%
FDX	94.29	0.66	0.70%	-1.70%	-5.92%	0.74%	-14.10%	-9.42%	-14.99%	-13.13%
ERJ	45.87	-0.08	-0.17%	-2.82%	-3.63%	3.66%	12.48%	4.13%	-8.75%	12.98%

XLI (Industrials) was flat (actually a penny gained +0.03 pct) W/W, after gaining +1.08 pct on Friday, to close at 39.47.

As I wrote three weeks ago, “the econ data is still coming through quite soft and this week the same thing is likely (which happened). So I wouldn’t go chasing the Industrials unless there is a definite reversal in the data.”

BA gained +0.74 pct W/W after a Friday move of +2.16 pct. Likewise, ABB lifted +1.16 pct W/W after Friday’s +3.67 pct heavy lifting. The previous week, BA and ABB were both losers, down -5.1 pct and -6.2 pct, respectively.

Fedex (FDX -1.7 pct W/W) closed Friday at 94.29, for a tough two weeks (-5.92 pct). Two weeks ago I wrote, “(despite the big gain this week) the stock (at 100.22) is still down -14.2 pct Y/Y, and the economic data, which drives Fedex, is not robust.”

FDX is down -15.0 pct over just six months, which is a reflection of the US economic slowdown, particularly in Industrial Production, which started to hit the retailers in July-August.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) lost -0.39 pct W/W, to close at 33.19. Even Friday’s gain (+0.12 pct), on a red hot market day, was nothing for the Bulls to be pleased about.

eBay (EBAY) was the big winner (+4.9 pct), while Brunswick Corp (BC) dropped -1.4 pct W/W.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	34.30	0.93	2.79%	4.89%	1.69%	7.39%	13.69%	-12.05%	10.18%	11.08%
JCP	43.85	0.35	0.80%	3.13%	-8.49%	6.17%	-43.83%	-34.04%	-40.37%	-44.04%
NKE	66.27	0.26	0.39%	3.03%	1.33%	3.95%	35.72%	15.74%	23.68%	32.14%
WHR	82.57	1.02	1.25%	1.57%	-3.74%	6.02%	-2.47%	-10.45%	-28.06%	0.94%
TM	107.40	1.54	1.45%	1.03%	-5.96%	-1.83%	-20.62%	-6.66%	-14.07%	-17.43%
CCL	45.33	1.32	3.00%	0.69%	0.73%	6.08%	-11.03%	-7.88%	-6.21%	-7.60%
DIS	32.94	0.61	1.89%	-0.21%	0.46%	3.45%	-3.68%	-4.80%	-3.66%	-4.63%
SBUX	21.06	0.53	2.58%	-0.89%	-6.90%	-8.71%	-40.26%	-23.33%	-19.80%	-42.13%
BC	17.95	0.11	0.62%	-1.37%	-11.97%	-6.80%	-43.77%	-19.76%	-47.05%	-43.27%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WAG	38.47	2.22	6.12%	5.14%	3.66%	-3.17%	-16.50%	-15.28%	-14.23%	-16.30%
WFMI	42.58	0.82	1.96%	4.93%	-1.09%	4.49%	-6.38%	-5.44%	11.03%	-11.55%
BUD	53.44	0.51	0.96%	1.29%	1.23%	6.48%	8.57%	5.68%	0.64%	9.17%
WMT	48.21	0.36	0.75%	1.22%	-1.65%	5.42%	1.39%	9.00%	-0.37%	5.47%
DEO	86.33	0.85	0.99%	0.94%	-0.67%	-3.35%	8.55%	-0.46%	2.52%	11.31%
MO	77.43	-0.19	-0.24%	0.79%	-0.22%	6.11%	19.27%	12.97%	12.90%	20.36%
ABV	72.11	0.52	0.73%	0.60%	-5.29%	4.37%	46.86%	-0.48%	2.66%	48.31%
PG	74.08	0.89	1.22%	0.24%	-0.05%	1.67%	14.78%	6.76%	19.72%	15.66%
KO	63.07	0.79	1.27%	-1.16%	-0.13%	1.24%	29.83%	11.53%	21.08%	29.61%
PEP	77.35	0.86	1.12%	-1.41%	0.45%	2.44%	23.33%	8.27%	17.41%	22.02%

XLP (consumer staples) gained +1.10 pct W/W to close at 29.34, but Friday’s gain (+1.31 pct) made the week.

Walgreen (WAG +5.14 pct W/W) had quite a week on Friday (up +6.12 pct). Just like most of the other exaggerated moves on Friday, I attribute this to quadruple witching where the hedge funds are squaring the books. Let’s see what next week brings.

Coca-Cola (KO) and Pepsi (PEP) were losers, -1.16 pct and -1.41 pct respectively. Not even a big day could put the fizz back in the bottle.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	58.99	0.88	1.51%	3.98%	4.13%	9.10%	12.21%	18.19%	13.95%	9.38%
AET	58.55	0.46	0.79%	1.21%	-0.64%	8.15%	36.54%	11.86%	18.59%	34.60%
JNJ	68.03	0.70	1.04%	0.65%	0.52%	1.72%	2.45%	4.47%	9.53%	3.08%
PFE	23.24	0.02	0.09%	0.61%	-4.75%	1.13%	-11.60%	-5.49%	-10.34%	-10.86%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
BMY	27.98	0.09	0.32%	-0.36%	-4.28%	-0.36%	6.07%	-3.52%	-12.62%	7.41%
DNA	67.90	-0.06	-0.09%	-0.77%	-0.86%	-9.25%	-16.99%	-14.46%	-10.62%	-15.62%
AMGN	48.02	0.46	0.97%	-0.79%	-7.83%	-10.68%	-29.80%	-13.35%	-16.15%	-30.60%
NVS	54.11	-0.06	-0.11%	-1.58%	-5.85%	-3.34%	-6.93%	-1.80%	-1.90%	-6.48%
GSK	50.91	0.18	0.35%	-3.94%	-4.43%	0.24%	-5.39%	-6.12%	-2.56%	-2.36%

IYH (healthcare) this week had a gain of +0.82 pct to close at 72.30, after Friday’s gain of +1.18 pct.

Whenever the market has a bump, and the Healthcare sector moving in step, I usually find the institutions United Health (UNH +4.0 pct W/W) and Aetna (AET +1.2 pct W/W) along for the ride.

The losers here this week were British-based GlaxoSmithKline (GSK -3.9 pct), mostly because the Brit pound took a nosedive this week and the FTSE was flat while most other markets were quite strong at the end of the week. Swiss-based Novartis (NVS -1.6 pct) was the other loser.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MS	54.37	3.00	5.84%	8.09%	5.18%	8.98%	-33.39%	-15.63%	-37.71%	-32.70%
LEH	64.57	2.24	3.59%	3.74%	1.73%	6.10%	-17.88%	2.98%	-18.51%	-16.48%
HBC	84.64	1.34	1.61%	0.38%	-2.62%	-0.12%	-8.96%	-8.56%	-9.38%	-6.96%
DB	127.62	2.21	1.76%	0.03%	-3.00%	2.63%	-5.70%	-1.28%	-14.76%	-4.31%
GS	209.60	6.93	3.42%	-0.51%	-3.80%	-3.18%	4.42%	-0.18%	-7.62%	5.81%
CS	59.43	0.79	1.35%	-0.90%	-3.99%	3.95%	-15.23%	-10.48%	-19.18%	-13.72%
C	30.24	0.35	1.17%	-1.50%	-11.86%	-4.61%	-45.27%	-36.35%	-43.65%	-44.78%
MER	55.54	1.04	1.91%	-2.29%	-9.57%	3.74%	-40.67%	-25.68%	-36.38%	-38.97%
JPM	44.11	0.78	1.80%	-2.41%	-4.28%	5.15%	-8.24%	-6.41%	-11.50%	-9.33%
UBS	45.28	-0.03	-0.07%	-4.37%	-10.30%	0.09%	-26.24%	-16.23%	-26.43%	-24.65%

Traders are obviously not too interested in all the plans to bail out bankers. XLF (Financials) dropped -0.64 pct W/W to close at 29.28, following a gain Friday of +0.83 pct.

MS (+8.1 pct) and LEH (+3.7 pct) were the best of the group I follow.

UBS (UBS -4.4 pct), JP Morgan Chase et al (JPM -2.4 pct) and Merrill Lynch (MER -2.3 pct W/W) were the losers.

Watch for the share dilution to come in this sector. Balance sheets will need to be shored up to maintain reserves before the full SIV losses are taken.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CTSH	35.83	0.72	2.05%	9.50%	7.40%	17.63%	-7.84%	-5.56%	-6.33%	-7.46%
ORCL	22.71	0.61	2.76%	7.12%	7.43%	11.82%	29.70%	3.32%	15.40%	32.81%
INFY	45.14	0.73	1.64%	5.99%	0.83%	15.45%	-19.13%	-3.17%	-12.84%	-15.66%
ADSK	50.99	0.49	0.97%	2.89%	5.79%	11.36%	25.71%	4.66%	8.10%	26.24%
INTC	26.96	0.55	2.08%	2.55%	-2.78%	7.54%	32.48%	4.21%	10.99%	32.35%
QCOM	39.96	0.84	2.15%	1.47%	-0.40%	-1.41%	6.67%	-2.13%	-8.26%	3.66%
SAP	51.42	0.12	0.23%	0.57%	-1.78%	-0.35%	-3.35%	-12.31%	0.72%	-2.28%
ADBE	42.18	0.01	0.02%	0.17%	-4.94%	0.64%	5.66%	0.55%	1.57%	1.98%
CSCO	28.60	0.32	1.13%	-0.17%	4.19%	-0.31%	3.10%	-11.46%	4.69%	4.80%
SNDK	35.67	-0.42	-1.16%	-1.84%	-7.71%	-1.22%	-14.50%	-33.40%	-26.51%	-15.97%

SMH (semi-conductor) was up +1.38 pct W/W, closing Friday at 33.12. Two weeks ago it was 33.42.

Intel (INTC) jumped +2.08 pct on Friday, to move the stock to a W/W gain of +2.55 pct.

(Cara 100) Micron (MU -10.0 pct W/W) is continuing to get crushed though, as did SanDisk (SNDK -1.84 pct) this week.

MU (7.53) gave us two bad Buy Alerts (late Oct at ~10, and in late November at ~8.50, using only the Weekly and Daily RSI-7 system, which is why I advise you to be also use the Monthly and to be cognizant of the MACD. Over the long-run, this system works, but you must use it in the short-term in combination with other tools and techniques, like trading stops, for example. Moreover, since the end of September, my opinion has been generally bearish on market trends and cycles, and I have been advising traders to be patient as prices will come to you.

Except for a brief sell-off of this stock in Feb 2003, the price has not been so low since the early 1990’s. Think of the mega-billions of USD invested in this company at higher prices. If the Company is not broken – and maybe it is and shouldn’t be in the Cara Global Best 100 – then buying stock at these low levels would probably look awfully good in five or ten years. But let’s study it first. If any of you have broker-dealer research, please send me the pdf. I am starting to rebuild my research files now that I am preparing to publish a private report to our community (ie, no web crawlers will have access).

I continue advising traders to watch the Big Ten of Nasdaq in order to get a feel for where the market is headed.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) gained +2.82 pct W/W to close at 30.26, following a gain of +2.13 pct on Friday.

A week ago, AT&T (T) was lifted by a Houston rocket booster. T hit a moonshot of +6.9 pct W/W. This week, the gain was just +0.83 pct, but Friday’s lift was +3.03 pct.

Single Stock Futures trading has gained a significant foothold, and trading prices is now more volatile as a result, I think, although I have no proof of that.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU (Utilities) lost -0.44 pct, closing at 42.99, after Friday’s loss of -0.58 pct.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	2.86	2.81	2.76	2.97
6 Month	3.19	3.14	3.13	3.16
2 Year	3.19	3.09	3.30	2.99
3 Year	3.13	3.02	3.25	2.89
5 Year	3.59	3.45	3.62	3.34
10 Year	4.18	4.05	4.23	4.01
30 Year	4.58	4.48	4.66	4.46

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.01	3.02	3.06	3.23
2yr AAA	3.11	3.07	3.08	3.27
2yr A	3.59	3.56	3.39	3.39
5yr AAA	3.27	3.31	3.32	3.38
5yr AA	3.28	3.26	3.31	3.31
5yr A	3.53	3.52	3.42	3.49
10yr AAA	3.81	3.77	3.80	3.80
10yr AA	3.40	3.36	3.63	3.68
10yr A	4.04	4.00	4.03	4.02
20yr AAA	4.61	4.38	4.41	4.44
20yr AA	4.41	4.18	4.20	4.59
20yr A	4.62	4.60	4.65	4.78

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.47	4.30	4.52	4.15
2yr A	4.53	4.48	4.97	4.28
5yr AAA	4.71	4.62	4.78	4.53
5yr AA	4.96	4.86	5.00	4.72
5yr A	4.87	4.78	5.13	4.55
10yr AAA	5.31	5.19	5.41	5.13
10yr AA	5.44	5.40	5.64	5.54
10yr A	5.74	5.68	6.03	5.54
20yr AAA	5.48	5.38	5.73	5.54
20yr AA	5.85	5.75	5.88	5.73
20yr A	6.26	6.18	6.47	6.00

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This week, US Treasury yields dropped a bit as Bond prices lifted. The yield for the 2-year dropped -11 basis points to 3.19 pct; the 5-year yield dropped -3 bp to 3.59 pct; the 10-year -5 bp to 4.18 pct and the 30-year -8 bp to 4.58 pct.

I am surprised that the short-term liquidity boost by central banks didn’t have a stronger impact on bond prices. We’ll just have to watch for what happens after New Year’s when these funds need to be repaid to the central bank lenders.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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This week, TLT and TIP gained +1.17 pct and +0.74 pct respectively. Prices are back almost but not quite where they were two weeks ago.

The bond market will likely be a non-starter until after year-end. That’s when I am expecting some fireworks as central bank funds have to be repaid. If they are, without apparent difficulty, then Bond prices will likely rally because the economy is slowing.

But if there are problems in settlement (even possible failures at financial institutions) or if the central banks extend these emergency loans, then I have to believe rates are going to rise and bond prices fall.

Let’s wait two weeks before discussing this any deeper that that.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	36.99	1.34	3.76%	6.66%	-0.13%	14.88%	-38.21%	-41.02%	-45.06%	-38.72%
TLT	91.67	-1.36	-1.46%	1.17%	-0.09%	-2.20%	2.92%	4.30%	10.06%	1.77%
TIP	105.10	-0.64	-0.61%	0.74%	0.62%	-1.49%	5.92%	3.44%	7.17%	5.35%
IEF	86.32	-0.63	-0.72%	0.70%	-0.02%	-0.68%	4.40%	3.46%	7.62%	3.45%
SHY	82.20	-0.14	-0.17%	0.39%	0.04%	-0.24%	2.70%	1.26%	2.88%	2.39%
AGG	100.74	-0.44	-0.43%	0.36%	-0.12%	-0.50%	0.83%	1.03%	2.95%	0.14%
FRE	30.96	-0.52	-1.65%	-2.79%	-12.89%	16.96%	-54.40%	-48.70%	-50.64%	-54.72%
CFC	8.770	0.000	0.00%	-10.51%	-24.00%	-9.12%	-79.17%	-55.28%	-76.87%	-78.66%

Two weeks ago, I wrote,

“For the week, the share prices of Countrywide (CFC +6.65 pct), Freddie (FRE +1.34 pct) and Fannie (-3.59), were all over the map. But after watching the Bush/Paulson Project HOPE lunacy, the Big Three mortgage lenders on Friday all had bad days on Friday: CFC -4.63 pct; FRE -4.20 pct; and FNM -4.39 pct…When I first heard about the prospects of such a plan coming together, I wrote,

It boggles the mind that when HB&B need desperately to pull themselves out of the hole they dug for themselves they would stoop so low as to actually support such a plan. …From frying pan into the fire... No, actually, I wouldn’t touch CFC, FNM or FRE with your ten foot pole because I think they have serious problems in getting to the bottom of their problems. Should interest rates stop being pushed lower, which is killing the $USD, and making all Americans pay for the shambles that HB&B and Henry Paulson have left the credit markets in their quest for billion dollar bonuses, then these mortgage lenders are finished. ..What that means is that their shareholders are finished.

So two things come to mind: (i) when bond yields pop like they did on Friday, CFC-FNM-FRE prices are going to be cooked, (ii) if bond yields ever reach proper risk-adjusted levels, then CFC-FNM-FRE shareholders are going to be cooked, which means their bankers are cooked, and (iii) Henry Paulson was sent to Washington to convince the President and Congress to get the Govt sponsored agencies (Fannie and Freddie) to take the hit for HB&B, which means the American taxpayer will pay the price. How sad.

Last week Countrywide (CFC -15.1 pct), Fannie Mae (FNM -6.4 pct) and Freddie Mac (FRE -10.4 pct) cost its shareholders a bundle. Combined with the previous Friday losses, these stocks were down from -11 pct to -20 pct IN SIX SESSIONS. I remarked, “Thank the people in charge of your govt! If you had any margin, you got wiped out in six sessions. Paulson’s friends btw will still get their $38 billion. How much again for John Thain who used to report to him as COO of Goldman Sachs who went to the NYSE and then to Merrill? Yes, how many millions in bonuses does John get for what three weeks of meeting people at their festive holiday occasions? Fiction writers would not get away with this stuff. It is just too far removed from reality.”

The reality this week is that Countrywide (CFC -10.5 pct) and Freddie Mac (FRE -2.8 pct) were hammered again. Fannie Mae (FNM +6.7 pct) was strong, however. Could it be that Fannie doesn’t have to backstop the mortgage-backed securities problems of HB&B? I don’t know why Fannie got to kick up her heels. Maybe a half-trillion from ECB’s Monsieur Jean-Claude Trichet helped relieve the threat!

Btw, isn’t France bankrupt? Why not cut those rates and hand that country a life-line? Oh, I see, it’s because Trichet doesn’t want to attempt reviving the dead.

If the dead would only speak up and tell us who they are. LOL

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB was higher this week +1.62 pct W/W from 348.60 to 354.23, almost a carbon copy of the previous week.

I recall saying that when the 320 threshold was broken, the US economy would be broken. Maybe it died, and we just can’t hear sounds? Do you think?

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is presently at 344.61 (up W/W from 344.53) and the 200-day MA is now 323.43 (up from 322.39), and rising.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) dropped slightly -0.24/bbl (-0.26 pct) from 91.55 to 91.31.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is now at 91.41, up W/W from 90.36, and the 200d MA is 75.33, up W/W from 74.58. The current price is close to the 50-day MA.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

$GOLD gained +13.41 W/W (+1.68 pct) to close Friday at 811.41. It lifted on Friday +1.02 pct, just like the previous week, but this week the gold stocks rallied a lot instead of pulling back as they had the week earlier.

I still think this sector is in trouble.

The 50-day MA for $GOLD is now 797.37 and the 200d MA is 710.06. $Silver dropped on Friday –0.04 pct. On the week $SILVER gained +2.51 pct to 14.33.

What I wrote in this space three weeks ago still applies, “So, yes, I do believe that any pullback to the mid to low 700’s would only be a temporary phenomenon. The reason is, as I wrote last week, “Only the central banks like to give the stuff away, and pretty soon they will be switching their selling habit for a buying habit because the price of gold is going a whole lot higher. (And) As and when that gold price soars, there will be a return to goldminer equities, and that will be the time to look seriously at the juniors and the miners that are steeply levered to higher gold prices. However, I think that most likely the options and futures on the gold physical will be the next great market play after the cycle has dropped to a bottom. Now I don’t know where that bottom will be, other than by looking at the continuous RSI and MACD data series, and the MA prices I give you, but I do expect it to be much lower than the current price… (This) is my thesis: Fairly soon, there will be a purging of all speculative accounts at HB&B -- both theirs and the clients -- and all goods go on sale. In terms of gold and silver, that means a blow-out to come to clean out the weak hands and lay the groundwork for the Gold Bull to return… Nobody knows today how the cycle will play out tomorrow. It could be in harmony with the broad equities market or it could run counter-cyclical. Right now, I’m thinking the latter because I foresee higher $USD prices as the economy slows, and the broad market falls. Moreover, I think most traders now realize the overspending by government problem is not just an American phenomenon. It is all over the world, and all currencies are being depreciated. That means any weakness in the gold market may be short-lived, and a move to the cycle bottom could happen quickly, so don’t stray too far from the Buy button.”

As “kaimu” points out, there are some good speculative values in the market. I am more hesitant because having been the executioner before, I know what happens when margin calls go out to over-leveraged traders. It isn’t pretty to see babies go out with the bathwater.

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Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.35 (+2.51 pct W/W) to close at 14.33.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is 14.40 and the 200d MA is 13.45. It will be interesting to see if $SILVER can take out the 50-d MA in this rally or if the usual resistance will force the price back.

You know my thoughts, but the jury is still out, and this is a jury of millions.

Six weeks ago, I wrote, “On August 17, the price hit a low of 11.06, so the move to 15.55 in twelve weeks is a gain of +40.6 pct.” Then I added, “I don’t think we’ll see that again for a while.”

The longer the price doesn’t get back to that Aug 17 $15.55 cycle high, the more likely sellers will come in and knock it down to a lower base from which to try a major rally. That is what I am anticipating.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT gained +33.00 (+2.23 pct) this week to close at 1512.20, which means the price is now higher than four week’s ago (1482.50), which means I missed the rally.

The 50d MA for $PLAT is 1458.48. The 200d MA is 1337.38.

As I said three weeks ago, “the charts for Platinum and Palladium show they are entering a bottoming pattern, which might be an indication that gold and silver are ready to bottom as well.” I saw it happen but didn’t believe it. I also wrote back then, “But I don’t think so because gold and silver are taking their cue from the strengthening $USD, which is going to push those prices lower.”

For a while, that’s what happened to the $USD and gold & silver as plat and pall lifted.

I could beg off by saying trading plat and pall is not my strength. I could also jump from a high building too. I have some thoughts on this but will keep them to myself. Twice wrong, doesn’t make a right.

I have to think hope the plat and pall will play like their precious metal counterparts. Good traders never use the word ‘hope’. I’m getting weak and my run today hasn’t even started.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL gained just +0.80/oz (+0.22 pct W/W) (with a loss of -0.80 pct on Friday!) to close at 358.20.

The 50d MA is 368.51 (which is falling for a second straight week) and the 200d MA is 364.31 (which only gained a penny, meaning next week the MA could be headed south). The $PALL is staying below both MA’s, which is a negative.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained a bit +4.45/contract (+1.51 pct W/W) to close at 300.10. The week was made by the gain of +1.20 pct on Friday.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 321.56, down from 328.81 and the 200d MA is 337.82, up from 337.36, so the current price (300.10) is well below the 50MA and 200MA, and may continue pointing traders to a recession.

With the economies of the world slowing, how can copper prices stay high?

Remember, the Metal Men of Zug (Xstrata) have agreed to be taken over by a major miner. That could be a classic “tell” that the equity market has reached the peak.

Maybe the Metal Men will move to Nassau? Do you think?

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AEM	50.56	2.21	4.57%	5.93%	3.42%	-3.18%	29.91%	1.51%	37.17%	26.62%
KGC	17.79	1.40	8.54%	3.31%	-3.42%	-4.46%	55.78%	14.92%	38.88%	54.70%
ABX	39.08	1.56	4.16%	2.84%	-1.78%	-9.33%	31.01%	-2.45%	32.12%	30.22%
NEM	48.70	1.31	2.76%	1.86%	-2.66%	-6.51%	10.18%	2.40%	21.90%	7.81%
GG	32.20	1.16	3.74%	-0.09%	-3.97%	-7.10%	17.78%	6.48%	31.97%	19.44%
MDG	34.91	1.86	5.63%	-0.23%	-4.70%	-8.23%	32.79%	1.87%	34.53%	29.63%
BVN	53.77	0.75	1.41%	-0.83%	-2.54%	-1.84%	94.75%	17.20%	47.15%	100.93%
AUY	12.28	0.69	5.95%	-2.15%	-8.01%	-11.91%	-0.41%	-2.62%	-3.69%	0.00%
GFI	14.15	0.54	3.97%	-4.65%	-9.41%	-19.69%	-22.80%	-21.78%	-15.17%	-23.14%

This week, $XAU (the Philadelphia Exchange goldminer index) gained +2.16 (+1.30 pct) to close at 167.96. No big deal; a week ago, it lost -8.59 (-4.93 pct).

The goldminer ETF’s (the US’s) GDX (+2.46 pct) and (Canada’s) XGD (-0.89 pct) told a mixed story. Maybe the Canadians went home early Friday. With the ice on the roads, late Christmas shopping and all might have made them do it, and miss the party on Friday for Agnico-Eagle +4.6 pct, Kinross +8.5 pct, and Barrick +4.1 pct. Quite a day.

But AEM and ABX were still DOWN on the week, and KGC gained only +3.3 pct despite that gain on Friday of +8.5 pct.

You can tell I will be running the streets of south Nassau this afternoon, and not the Yellow Brick Road (PI).

The 50d MA for $XAU is 175.85 and the 200d MA is 152.32. So the 50d-MA has dropped! Last week I opined, “The 50d MA for $XAU is 175.94 and the 200d MA is 151.56, which are both up on the week. I venture one of them (the 50-d MA) will be down next week.”

Nothing ventured, nothing gained!

How good does it get.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

The following data is a simulation of M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates.”

What the central banks have to do is get control of this monster !!

As NowAndFutres.com opines, “11/30/2007 - Note that much of the large growth in M3 lately has been in flows into CDs and Money Market Funds, a normal occurrence during financial turmoil.”

The CB pumping in December is even bigger. That Jean-Claude is a wild and crazy guy. He must really figure that some of the ECB member states and some of their Humungous Banks & Brokers are bankrupt !!

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Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

This week the $USD lifted +0.31 (+0.40 pct) to close at 77.74. Thank you Jean-Claude!

“When it had a 74 handle a couple weeks ago, I opined that we’d soon see 75, then 76, then 77.” But you heard that already. Now I figure it could run to 82, which would hammer gold, and give you the buying opportunity that I have been addressing for some time.

Now I didn’t like some of the trading I saw in the $USD from late Monday through the rest of the week. We’ll have to keep our eye on it.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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The Euro ($XEU) this week lost -0.60 (-0.42 pct) to close at 143.57.

The Euro’s 50d MA is 145.31 and the 200d MA is 138.41.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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The Pound has now dropped for four weeks. This week the loss was -3.13 (-1.55 pct W/W) to close at 198.45.

Four weeks ago I wrote here, “This week, the Pound lifted +0.89 (+0.43 pct) to 205.98. I take that as a corrective bounce and not the start of another Bull move. This currency too is near the end of a three-month Bull run.”

How good is that.

The 50d MA is now 205.13, down from 205.51, and the 200d MA is 201.31, up from 201.14.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) had a third consecutive losing week.

The Yen this week, dropped -0.49 (-0.56 pct) to close at 87.66. The big loss was on Friday, down -0.87 pct in one day !!

(Previously) “I thought the Carry Trade was beginning to unwind. Maybe the Bulls can keep it going?” I think Friday, they did.

The 50d MA of the Yen is 88.88 and the 200d MA is 85.31.

As the Yen falls, the money flow is into US and Japanese equities.

But you heard that already. :-)

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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You know, do you, that the windows of the Royal Bank of Canada towers are made of gold. So with $GOLD up this week 13.41/oz, it figures the Canadian Dollar rallied back by 2.63 (+2.68 pct!!) W/W, including Friday’s gain of +0.69 pct, to close at 100.80.

The new Bank of Goldman Sacks Governor – I mean Bank of Canada Governor – is hoping to crank that C$ up so Johnny Canuck can take all those bankrupt Florida condos off the hands of HB&B.

Of course there are some Canucks who would prefer the Turks & Caicos Islands for some reason. Maybe they think sovereignty is going to give them tax-free status. Think again.

Maybe Canada would like to take over Musha Cay here in the Bahamas. No, with the size of the federal debt, I doubt Canada could afford it. Fox Hill maybe.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 102.18, down from 102.36, and the 200d MA is 95.31, up from 94.94, so the current price is below the 50d MA.

It may have rallied hard this week, but is still a far cry from 110.17, just a few weeks ago.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

I have added another 16 country index charts from StockCharts.com (with their formal approval btw as long as I don’t publish too many) because I think it is important to be watching these markets move through a trend juncture together.

In addition, I added the $CDNX, which happens to be the Toronto Venture market. Enthusiasm for many of these stocks will wane during 2008. In a Bear market, some will drop by -80 pct or more from peak to trough. Don’t shoot the messenger. I do think there will be another bull move before the full Bear sets in. Operating costs and tight money by traders are at fault. Not enough big discoveries for the billions of funds going into exploration and holidays for the promoters. :-)

So, what I advise if you are playing these Toronto Venture stocks is to (i) track the volume and get nervous if and when you see flat prices on higher volume (which means the promoter is selling), and (ii) track the share prices of your stocks against the index, which will give you a comparative picture.

The domestic equity markets are, of course, quite different than ETF and closed-end fund securities that are $USD denominated and trade in the US.

The international markets enjoyed an across-the-board rally at the end of the week. Can that process continue? I doubt it because it strikes me that the gains so far at least are nothing comparable to the ones traders witnessed as these stocks rallied off cycle lows the past couple times. So far, the action is rather tame.

I previously wrote here, “ I advise watching the MACD and RSI indicators closely in the next month as I believe we are seeing the topping process work out since the end of September. The next down-draft could be a big one, although it will probably hit unexpectedly.”

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Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

Brazilian Bovespa stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

Toronto 300 stockcharts.com chart

Toronto CDNX stockcharts.com chart

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

FTSE 100 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

DAX stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

CAC 40 stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

Italian Milan Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

Swiss Market Index stockcharts.com chart

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

Singapore Straits Times Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

Shanghai Composite Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

Hong Kong Hang Seng stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Mumbai BSE 30 Sensex Index stockcharts.com chart

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

Sydney All Ordinaries Index stockcharts.com chart

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Russia (RTS) stockcharts.com chart

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (in $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FXI	178.04	5.34	3.09%	3.81%	-6.00%	3.34%	52.96%	5.67%	37.03%	73.65%
EWZ	81.75	2.53	3.19%	2.19%	-4.58%	5.57%	75.05%	17.93%	31.14%	80.30%
IFN	66.84	3.44	5.43%	2.06%	2.12%	20.98%	47.42%	31.42%	55.48%	45.46%
QQQQ	51.85	0.95	1.87%	1.73%	-0.92%	4.03%	19.91%	2.96%	8.61%	19.53%
EWC	31.98	0.68	2.17%	1.69%	0.13%	2.47%	29.47%	-0.56%	6.42%	27.36%
EWJ	13.44	0.22	1.66%	1.36%	-5.68%	-1.47%	-5.35%	-2.47%	-7.88%	-4.55%
SPY	148.13	1.33	0.91%	0.65%	-1.84%	2.78%	4.78%	-2.53%	-2.51%	4.60%
IEV	116.85	1.68	1.46%	0.15%	-3.62%	-1.13%	10.65%	-0.47%	-0.20%	12.28%
EWU	25.06	0.31	1.25%	0.04%	-3.50%	0.20%	6.41%	-1.42%	-1.84%	8.16%
TRF	70.62	-0.85	-1.19%	-8.99%	-1.37%	6.52%	-20.25%	9.20%	2.82%	-22.20%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

The major US stock indexes were all up this week by +0.8 to +2.1 pct. A week earlier they had been down -2.1 to -4.0 pct, so the big rally on Friday (+1.6 pct to +1.9 pct on the day) failed to do much. So far.

Actually I think that was a Quadruple Witching Day rally off some huge earnings reports from Oracle and Research In Motion. Will it continue? It can, but I don’t think it will.

Another item, noted earlier by Jock, is that the Russell 2000 took off on a moonshot on Thursday. I think that was manufactured off the previous Friday pull-back in the R2000, when that index was down -2.0 pct.

The more I see of this market closing in to year end, the more I believe that the algo traders playing Single Stock Futures are having an impact.

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IBM	111.05	2.21	2.03%	4.99%	2.01%	6.73%	14.17%	-4.91%	4.17%	15.79%
AIG	58.33	1.59	2.80%	4.82%	-5.08%	9.99%	-19.15%	-13.24%	-19.04%	-18.93%
AA	36.35	0.96	2.71%	3.30%	-1.52%	3.41%	23.93%	-2.81%	-9.89%	24.06%
INTC	26.96	0.55	2.08%	2.55%	-2.78%	7.54%	32.48%	4.21%	10.99%	32.35%
XOM	93.43	1.30	1.41%	2.47%	2.11%	5.82%	26.07%	1.21%	10.83%	23.14%
MSFT	36.06	0.54	1.52%	2.12%	4.43%	5.72%	20.76%	25.86%	19.32%	20.28%
UTX	77.83	1.43	1.87%	1.49%	-0.31%	5.95%	23.91%	-2.01%	8.17%	24.01%
DD	45.35	1.16	2.63%	1.39%	-3.90%	1.48%	-7.52%	-8.73%	-13.21%	-7.41%
WMT	48.21	0.36	0.75%	1.22%	-1.65%	5.42%	1.39%	9.00%	-0.37%	5.47%
HON	60.71	0.02	0.03%	1.22%	3.76%	11.05%	34.61%	3.44%	7.68%	35.63%
T	41.48	1.22	3.03%	0.83%	7.82%	10.23%	18.68%	-2.47%	4.77%	17.94%
MO	77.43	-0.19	-0.24%	0.79%	-0.22%	6.11%	19.27%	12.97%	12.90%	20.36%
BA	89.07	1.88	2.16%	0.74%	-4.39%	-0.52%	-0.11%	-13.18%	-8.36%	-0.97%
JNJ	68.03	0.70	1.04%	0.65%	0.52%	1.72%	2.45%	4.47%	9.53%	3.08%
GE	37.14	0.62	1.70%	0.62%	-0.24%	-1.41%	-2.19%	-9.96%	-4.28%	-1.67%
PFE	23.24	0.02	0.09%	0.61%	-4.75%	1.13%	-11.60%	-5.49%	-10.34%	-10.86%
GM	26.64	0.16	0.60%	0.45%	-6.92%	-1.91%	-9.54%	-23.76%	-25.92%	-9.85%
PG	74.08	0.89	1.22%	0.24%	-0.05%	1.67%	14.78%	6.76%	19.72%	15.66%
MMM	86.05	1.56	1.85%	0.14%	-0.16%	3.99%	9.95%	-6.14%	-1.56%	9.19%
HD	26.66	0.39	1.48%	0.11%	-9.60%	-7.91%	-35.09%	-22.66%	-33.27%	-31.48%
VZ	44.32	0.50	1.14%	-0.11%	-2.16%	3.94%	17.19%	-0.14%	4.43%	20.83%
HPQ	52.03	0.87	1.70%	-0.21%	0.37%	5.82%	25.01%	2.97%	14.35%	27.52%
DIS	32.94	0.61	1.89%	-0.21%	0.46%	3.45%	-3.68%	-4.80%	-3.66%	-4.63%
AXP	51.95	0.92	1.80%	-0.65%	-8.80%	-6.62%	-13.93%	-12.37%	-17.09%	-14.64%
MRK	59.15	0.61	1.04%	-0.71%	-2.51%	2.58%	34.37%	14.15%	19.98%	36.70%
CAT	72.73	1.22	1.71%	-0.90%	-1.98%	5.97%	18.92%	-6.95%	-10.73%	19.60%
KO	63.07	0.79	1.27%	-1.16%	-0.13%	1.24%	29.83%	11.53%	21.08%	29.61%
C	30.24	0.35	1.17%	-1.50%	-11.86%	-4.61%	-45.27%	-36.35%	-43.65%	-44.78%
MCD	60.03	1.24	2.11%	-1.85%	-0.22%	4.00%	36.84%	9.54%	17.54%	36.84%
JPM	44.11	0.78	1.80%	-2.41%	-4.28%	5.15%	-8.24%	-6.41%	-11.50%	-9.33%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

This week, Value Line reported on Boeing, calling the stock technically over-priced (Dec 7 rating change) despite the fact BA has fallen hard in recent months. On the 28th, Value Line will report on AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), both of which have had extreme trading moves in recent weeks.

With respect to Boeing, the weak dollar policy of the US Administration in recent years has led directly to the filling up of its order book. Therein lies the problem. New orders may affect 2011 operations. In the meantime, factors like price and wage inflation, supply breakdowns, and so forth will weigh heavily.

In any case, I think the Value Line analyst has covered all this. The stock is now on the slide where I anticipate a series of lower lows and lower highs through 2008. That does not mean I will drop Boeing from the Cara 100.

Boeing has thrived after James McNerney was recruited from 3M (MMM) as CEO to replace the terminated Harry Stonecipher (who I railed about in his final year). McNerney is so good, in my books, that I instantly dropped 3M from the Cara Global 100 in favor of Boeing.

Boeing [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100] $89.07.
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 21)

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Dec. 21: next one is due Mar. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Dec. 14: next one is due Mar. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Feb. 29)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Dec. 7: next one is due Mar. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Nov. 23: next one is due Feb. 22)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)

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Wrap up:

Today, I will be out with the Hash House Harriers of Nassau. That’s a running group with a drinking problem advantage. http://nassauhash.com/

The Hash does its thing on Sunday afternoons in the winter and Mondays during the rest of the year. Today will be weekly Run Number 1370. As the website says, if you're in town visiting - on a vacation or for business - why not join us for a run!

Today the Hashers are required to wear Santa hats, but leave their reindeer at home. I'm more likely to show up with reindeer.

To all, enjoy the holidays if you can. Many of you, I know, can’t. To the soldiers and families of military men and women, we honor your sacrifice and pray for the safe return of your loved ones.

Best wishes for peace, joy, prosperity and love.

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