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December 16, 2007
Week in Review #50 (2007-12-16)
I won’t sugarcoat this: Goldilocks died. Inflation is surging in the US for both producers (PPI) and consumers (CPI), which has brought an end to the 2002-2007 Bull market. The market topped out in October. From that point, global equity markets will experience a series of lower lows and lower highs, which is the definition of a Bear market.
At the end of the week, after the US PPI and CPI data was released, equity markets moved much lower, although the major drop is yet to be experienced.
Stocks were crushed on Friday as traders also see that global banks could write down potentially trillions in bad real-estate mortgages, which due to the fractional reserve system of banking will have a crippling economic effect.
The share prices of lending banks and near-banks are being flattened around the globe. In fact, bank companies are failing everywhere, and the evidence is sitting at the end of your nose. This weekend, for example, the government of Taiwan paid HSBC $1.5 billion to take a small bankrupt bank off their hands, and that bank apparently deals in Chinese trade, not US sub-prime debt. Even at that, HSBC states the acquisition (sic) would not be accretive to earnings. Hopefully, the brainiacs who run HSBC understand the extent of the liability this transaction brings to their balance sheet.
By the close Friday, 30 pct of the Dow 30 stocks were down at least -5.0 pct on the week, and 20 pct of them had plunged -7.34 pct or more. Citigroup shares dropped -10.5 pct, AIG -9.4 pct, and American Express -8.2 pct.
Traders who remain bullish ought not ignore the significance of this move. The DJIA is now at 13340, off its 52-week high of 14198 on Oct 11. The line in the sand for the Bull-Bear struggle is 12800, but that measure of support could be easily taken out in a day or two as we saw in October 1987. Other major equity markets, like Japan, have already caved in.
Traders know that the Fed will have great difficulty lowering rates again, which would further weaken the $USD and lift the price of imported goods, including commodities such as oil. The US public cannot afford it, and they are fed up with the constant lies and misrepresentation from authorities regarding this issue.
The lower $USD policy had been in effect by the US authorities to raise the price of foreign currencies in order to make US Treasury securities more attractive, which was driving up the price of bonds and the yields lower, which was relieving the pressure on the stressed mortgage and housing market in the US.
The problem with a lower dollar policy is that it invites inflation. If pushed to extreme limits, that inflation will become extreme. The collateral positive through this period was that non-US investors were experiencing a wealth effect, and lower domestic inflation, which also encouraged them to buy equities, which drove these markets to record highs.
The $USD rallied hard and the gold price dropped sharply on Friday as traders expected a worsening liquidity crisis. The calamity in forex and precious metal markets will continue for several weeks and probably months before gold falls to probably 730, possibly as low as 650, and the $USD moves higher to at least 82, which will relieve some pressure on the US inflation front. At that point, I anticipate Crude Oil to be priced in the 75 range.
During the liquidity crisis and tightening process, I anticipate the US equity markets to possibly fall back to 10 and 2, which is to say to 10,000 for the DJIA and 2000 for the Nasdaq Composite.
Anybody who sugarcoats this situation is either incompetent or refusing to act in a fit and proper manner, and ought to be held accountable.
Global Economics Review
US Economic Calendar for next week.
Inflation is surging in many countries for both producers and consumers as shown by the following report.
Econoday International Report.
It is important to review the following two reports on US inflation.
Econoday Report on US CPI.
Econoday Report on US PPI.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals. (Screenshots will return after I get a new webmaster/techie)
“Jock” reports:
THIS WEEK’s close saw 2 GREEN industries and 15 RED, compared to last week's 20 green, 0 Red – the largest weekly decline of the year!
Of the Cara 100 components, are 20 GREEN (last week: 40) 43 are RED - (last week: 20) Teck Cominco is RED, but does not appear below for lack of historical data:
Components of major indices (green/red) were as follows:
In all the above indices, the number of GREEN components has at least HALVED, and the RED components at least DOUBLED from last week!
Among the indices themselves, the DJIA fell from GREEN to neutral. The S&P500, NDX, Nasdaq COMP, and Wiltshire4500 fell from GREEN to RED. The Russell 2000 and Hang Seng fell from neutral to RED. The Shanghai composite remained RED. Bombay stayed neutral
The CRB commodity index stayed neutral, while the US dollar index rose to GREEN. GOLD stocks remained neutral, while SILVER stocks fell from neutral to RED.
BOTTOM LINE: This week, the party ended abruptly! – This was the largest weekly deterioration of the year.
Jock
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.
Jock’s work will soon be automated and put directly into the MT html script, after which you will see the charts and tables.
Also, for newbie traders, I do recommend Dr. Elder’s books or those of Martin Pring.
US Equity Markets Review
DJIA=13,340. “Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, DJIA=13,895.63)
The bearish trend direction must be confirmed in the Nasdaq-listed big cap tech stocks of which only MSFT and INTC are in the Dow 30.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
Nasdaq=2635. “Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, Nasdaq=2701.5)
“I think we’ll see a lift, but not for long, and this 2350-2400 level will be tested again in December.”
Although the time frame is short, I believe there will be a major sell-off in the next couple weeks.
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
This week the scoreboard reads 1 up and 9 down. Energy XLE remained firm until this Friday when it dropped -1.21 pct in a day.
On Friday, all my long-side ETF’s dropped. Basic Materials XLB (-2.27 pct) was the worst.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) remained best performer, based on higher crude oil prices that were caused by supply shortages and interruptions as opposed to economic growth.
The CVX was up +1.2 pct W/W. Canada’s SU and IMO were up +1.0 pct and +0.8 pct respectively W/W.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed this week up +3.27/bbl (+3.70 pct) to 91.55. However, XLE lifted just +0.62 pct W/W, closing at 76.75. But Friday, it was down -1.21 pct
“I have been saying that I think it’s going lower and that in time will work itself down to about 75. In the interim, this is a day trader’s market, so you can expect hour to hour changes.”
The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is at 74.58. But, as I say this average is “moving”. The 50-day MA is now at 90.36 and still rising, “so (as I wrote a couple weeks ago) in a month or two, the 200-day MA will likely move up through 75, which is where I think the current price will eventually intersect it.”
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) dropped -2.70 pct W/W, including -2.27 pct on Friday.
Stocks like NUE, PKX and RIO that had up strongly in recent weeks dropped hard. NUE (-3.3 pct) was the best of them. RIO (-9.9 pct), RTP (-9.7 pct), TCK (-9.5 pct), PKX (-8.2 pct) and BHP (-7.7 pct) were hit bad.
Inflation alarm bells, tight credit and a slowing global economy will do that.
W/W), the stocks were hammered. $XAU (-4.93 pct) and GDX (-4.50 pct) reflectedthe widespread losses.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) lost -2.08 pct W/W, including -1.10 pct Friday, to close at 39.46.
As I wrote two weeks ago, “the econ data is still coming through quite soft and this week the same thing is likely (which happened). So I wouldn’t go chasing the Industrials unless there is a definite reversal in the data.”
BA and ABB were losers, down -5.1 pct and -6.2 pct, respectively. HON climbed +2.5 pct.
Fedex (FDX -4.3 pct W/W) closed Friday at 95.92. A week ago I wrote, “(despite the big gain this week) the stock (at 100.22) is still down -14.2 pct Y/Y, and the economic data, which drives Fedex, is not robust.”
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) lost -4.12 pct W/W, to close at 33.32.
A week ago I wrote: “The biggest gainer a week ago, JCP (+6.8 pct), gained a further +8.6 pct this week. But the previous three weeks, there were W/W losses of -6.8 pct, -7.9 pct, and -12.0 pct, so maybe this is a corrective rally in a Bear phase, or maybe its just time to roll the dice.” Well, this week JCP plunged -11.3 pct and BC -10.7 pct.
“Clearly the market has become a crapshoot for long-term oriented traders, and a joy for daytraders. I suspect that the hugely advantaged prop traders at HB&B are having a profitable time cleaning the Street, and most of you are getting fed up.“
Three weeks ago, I wrote, “JC Penny has had a tough go of it for such a superior company. The stock has been hammered down for a long while now and some of the senior management replaced. I think that so goes the US retail economy, so too with JCP.” Last week I added, “I hardly think that JC Penny resolved their issues this month or that the market cap deserves to be up +16.03 pct in ten sessions.” I guess you agreed!
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLP (consumer staples) lost -1.49 pct W/W to close at 29.02, but Friday’s loss (-1.23 pct) made the week.
PEP bubbled up +1.9 pct W/W, but ABV (-5.9 pct) lost its head. The food at WFMI wasn’t up to par, down -5.7 pct W/W.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
IYH (healthcare) this week had a loss of -1.93 pct to close at 71.71.
Nothing looked good here. AMGN took a loss of -7.1 pct.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Traders are obviously not too interested in all the plans to bail out bankers. XLF (Financials) dropped -5.70 pct W/W to close at 29.47.
JPM and LEH were the best of the group I follow and they both lost -1.9 pct. C plunged -10.5 pct, MER -7.5 pct and UBS -6.2 pct. That’s a tough week for banks the size of Citi, Merrill and UBS.
Watch for the share dilution to come. Balance sheets will need to be shored up to maintain reserves before the full SIV losses are taken.
Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)
Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |




