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December 9, 2007
Week in Review #49 (2007-12-09)
With the events of this week, I feel that the world of Financial Armageddon is beginning to unfold before us. History is being made, but how many are even aware?
The Report of the US Comptroller of the Currency, Administrator of National Banks in Washington provides data that needs to be studied and explained by independent and objective experts. What I see here is that the financial system is built upon a base of $160 trillion in credit derivative contracts that are not recorded on the balance sheets of banks because of a principle called “bilateral netting”.
As I understand it, however, bilateral netting only works as long as the credit ring remains unbroken. But it happens to be breaking up, ie, one financial company may not be able to pay another, which leads to others in a mushrooming process. What then?
Two years ago we should have been thinking what happens if the credit ring is deliberately broken, for example when Party A creates a $1 million mortgage on a property worth $200,000, then sells it to an accomplice Party B who puts up no capital, and who walks away from the deal, causing Party C (the mortgage holder) to sell it to Party D (SIV Fund). Party D soon discovers they are bankrupt so they go to the swap market to lay it off to Party E, who in turn does it to Party F, and on and on. Hello Ponzi.
A $200,000 value btw is one where, as an investor, you can find a renter to pay at least $1300/month plus taxes plus maintenance costs plus all utilities. $2500/month ought to cover you. If you can’t easily find a renter to pay you at least $2500/month, net of real estate fees and ignoring taxes, then your million dollar investment is worth $200,000 tops, in economic terms. Anything above that is inflation and/or speculation driven.
In the summer of 2005, at the peak of the real estate market, I warned everybody about real estate markets about to crash, fraud about to be discovered, the credit ring about to blow up and the VIX showing me that nobody was aware of the problem. Some people said I was ranting. They should have been listening. Re-read one of those articles.
So where we are today is that Party E and Party D have discovered they can no longer contain the damage or hide the fact they were defrauded, but went along with it, possibly for a while at least, unwittingly, for the sake of the humungous fees involved.
As I wrote in the Saturday Review, I will simplify my concern here. The total Credit Derivative Swap Market is about $160 trillion, give or take some trillions. A trillion btw is a thousand billions. Even I don’t know the name of a four-digit trillion, but 160 seems to be getting close.
There are just three players who hold over 90 pct or about $145 trillion of these contracts. All three, the history will show, have had previous brushes with insolvency, and have needed bail-outs.
But, the last time I looked, JP Morgan Chase et al (JPM) were not good for $80 trillion, which is its total derivatives contract obligation. And I suspect Citigroup (C), having to reach out to Abu Dhabi last week for an emergency handout of $7.5 billion isn’t good for $35 trillion. Moreover, I don’t think anybody should be holding their breath for Bank of America (BAC) to stand behind its $30 trillion.
The Big three are the ones who tried and failed to raise $100 billion in a so-called SIV Super-Fund, and so HB&B has turned to something called a MLEC --Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit and BlackRock is the anointed savior.
A Bloomberg article states:
Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which created special investment vehicles (SIVs) in the 1980s, Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) are heading the large-scale effort that is supposed to help SIVs sell hard-to-value paper without further unnerving jittery credit markets. As manager of the fund, BlackRock will be in charge of deciding what to do with the assets sold into the portfolio.
Unfortunately, as the world witnessed by the dog and pony show at the White House, the Bush/Paulson Mortgage Relief (HOPE) Plan is their scheme to get us to pay for it. They called it a 100 pct private sector deal, but the plan was unveiled by 100 pct politicians and zero pct bankers (if you no longer call Henry Paulson the most powerful banker in the world). As the call went out by the President for Congress to get onboard, I wondered why given he and his Treasury Secretary were telling us this is a 100-pct private sector deal.
The bottom line is that the global financial system is hanging on a thread. That thread by the way is now held by a company called BlackRock, which is a name most of you don’t recognize.
According to wiki, the BlackRock founder was the person who initiated these mortgage-backed securities, which are at the heart of the problem.
Throughout the piece, Goldman Sachs (Paulson)/Merrill Lynch (BlackRock/Goldman) is clearly in the middle of it all.
It seems to me to be 12 people sitting around a boardroom table scheming ways to get themselves out of bankruptcy and us to pay for it. I can only conclude that Financial Armageddon has started, and that the Goldman Sachs call for $600 gold was a fraud, and that we need to be jumping aboard the yellow brick road, which we can do by buying gold physicals (bullion and coins) and the shares of the goldminers and prospectors that hold proven and probable in situ gold reserves that are highly leveraged to higher gold prices.
When the price of gold is going to rise sharply will be the day that the White House and Fed decide to stop selling whatever gold is remaining in Ft. Knox, unencumbered that is. But if they continue to sell it, my guess is that HB&B, the buyer, still needs more to cover themselves for the MLEC work-out to come from BlackRock.
What ticks me in all this is that all of us have been forced by HB&B to be daytraders, which is playing in their court, where they hold all the advantages in a one-sided game. I’d much rather be writing about corporate fundamentals and quant stats, stock price analysis and economics, in other words all the stuff that should matter.
Politics and the plight of HB&B cannot be ignored because the shocking truth is they are about to pull off by far the biggest transference of wealth in world history. Those who hold the gold will be on the winning side.
International Economics Review
US Economic Calendar for next week.
Econoday International Report.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .
Regarding the Cara Global 100, I am going to remove Moody’s (MCO) later today because of the concerns I have that regulators and litigants will play a major role in their future. I think its a dead company ticking.
I haven’t yet decided on the replacement but it will be (i) non-US and (ii) in a defensive sector like Consumer Staples or Healthcare.
I like Perdigao (PDA), a Brazilian food processor, mostly meats and poultry, that it also sells abroad. The stock is over-priced right now, but the company looks to be a good one. I’ll let you know this week as I am reviewing all the international Cara 100 series at the moment.
Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review
Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals. (Screenshots will return after I get a new webmaster/techie)
“Jock” reports:
THIS WEEK saw 21 GREEN industries and 0 RED, compared to last week’s 9 green, 6 Red.
(insert weekly impulse chart)
Of the Cara 100 components, are 40 GREEN (last week: 28) 20 are RED - (last week: 24) Teck Cominco is RED, but does not appear below for lack of historical data:
(insert Cara 100 tables)
The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis, were (green/red):
(insert table: index components green-red)
The DJIA, S&P500, NDX, Nasdaq COMP, and Wiltshire4500 all rose from neutral to GREEN. Bombay and Hang Seng stayed neutral. The Russell 2000 rose from red to neutral. The Shanghai composite remained RED.
The CRB commodity index and US dollar index stayed neutral. GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed NEUTRAL.
BOTTOM LINE: This week the industries and indices continued to strengthen impressively. Although there was dire news, the expectation of a rate cut kept the market buoyant. America parties on !
Jock
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.
Jock’s work will soon be automated and put directly into the MT html script, after which you will see the charts and tables.
Also, for newbie traders, I do recommend Dr. Elder’s books or those of Martin Pring.
US Equity Markets Review
“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, DJIA=13,895.63)
I happen to think the answer to trend direction will come out of the Nasdaq-listed big cap tech stocks of which only MSFT and INTC are in the Dow 30.
NASDAQ Composite ino.com chart
NASDAQ Composite stockcharts.com chart
“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29, Nasdaq=2701.5)
“I think we’ll see a lift, but not for long, and this 2350-2400 level will be tested again in December.”
No change in my outlook.
Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY
This week, AAPL +6.63 pct, MSFT +2.77 pct, GOOG +3.16 pct, INTC +6.33 pct, and ORCL +4.76 pct were the ones HB&B used to do the heavy lifting.
Thank you, thank you. I know that since the end of September this pumping action can only go on for so long as for each pull-back the profits on the puts are being added to the next round after prices get pumped again. Pretty soon, the Bears will be playing this market with free money.
Now we have to see what these interventionists can do with QCOM, RIMM, CSCO, GILD and EBAY to try to string this top out through year-end. Watch for the positive “news” stories to hit the wires.
Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
This week the scoreboard reads 10 up and 0 down. A week ago, Energy XLE went W/W from first to last and so this week it was not surprising for XOM to be up +2.62 pct, while the S&P 500 was up just +1.59 pct. And, a week ago, the only losers in the Dow, MSFT, HD and KO, this week were up +2.77 pct, +3.26 pct and 1.69 pct respectively. This rotation is keeping the train on the track, so far.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Individual Sector ETF Review
Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

A week ago, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) was the only loser W/W. Of course, the Crude Oil price had dropped almost -10 pct. This week, Crude Oil was up until Friday’s loss of -2.2 pct took the contracts down -0.5 pct on the week. But XLE was pushed into #1 sector performer with XOM going up +2.62 pct, and CVX up +3.63 pct W/W.
XLE lifted +3.92 pct W/W, closing at 76.28.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed this week down -0.43/bbl (-0.48 pct) to 88.28. I have been saying that I think it’s going lower and that in time will work itself down to about 75.
In the interim, this is a day trader’s market, so you can expect hour to hour changes.
The 200-day Moving Average of $WTIC is at 73.85. But, as I say this average is “moving”. The 50-day MA is now at 89.30 and still rising, “so (as I wrote a couple weeks ago) in a month or two, the 200-day MA will likely move up through 75, which is where I think the current price will eventually intersect it.”
Brazil’s PBR jumped +10.8 pct W/W, and, from Canada, the leaders were SU +6.8 pct and IMO +5.6 pct.
Norway’s state-controlled StatoilHydro (STO) dropped -11.6 pct on Friday alone, for a loss of -6.5 pct W/W. The Company raised its capex costs and cut its production output forecast considerably.
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) started to rally two weeks ago on Friday when it was up +1.49 pct, carrying on a week ago, up a further +5.72 pct W/W. This week, XLB lifted +2.75 pct to close Friday at 42.93.
I still believe this was a short-covering rally since XLB had been down -10.5 pct in the 20 prior sessions. It was also a response to the chemical stocks of companies that had to benefit when their raw material costs dropped so much as oil prices have dropped, and to the resurgence of the steelmakers.
A week ago, the big mover was Nucor Steel (NUE +11.2 pct). This week, NUE lifted a further +4.7 pct. In addition, PKX the South Korean steelmaker gained +7.41 pct and GGB, Brazil’s large steelmaker, gained +6.40 pct.
The Gold stocks fared a little better this week, depending on the index/ETF, but Gold Fields dropped -5.1 pct W/W, and generally look unimpressive.
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLI (Industrials) gained +2.28 pct to close at 40.30.
As I wrote a week ago, “the econ data is still coming through quite soft and this week the same thing is likely (which happened). So I wouldn’t go chasing the Industrials unless there is a definite reversal in the data.”
GE was a loser, down 2.77 pct, whereas UTX climbed +4.41 pct.
ERJ is the big winner here, up +9.9 pct W/W. If you recall, a week ago I wrote, “ Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ) needs watching.” I wrote that because for the prior two weeks, ERJ had dropped -9.2 pct inexplicably.
Fedex (FDX +1.78 pct W/W) had a good week because of Friday’s gain (+1.76 pct). The stock (at 100.22) is still down -14.2 pct Y/Y, and the economic data, which drives Fedex, is not robust.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) gained +0.23 pct W/W, to close at 34.75, but was up +1.76 pct the previous Friday.
The biggest gainer a week ago, JCP (+6.8 pct), gained a further +8.6 pct this week. But the previous three weeks, there were W/W losses of -6.8 pct, -7.9 pct, and -12.0 pct, so maybe this is a corrective rally in a Bear phase, or maybe its just time to roll the dice.
I say that not with tongue in cheek. Clearly the market has become a crapshoot for long-term oriented traders, and a joy for daytraders. I suspect that the hugely advantaged prop traders at HB&B are having a profitable time cleaning the Street, and most of you are getting fed up.
Two weeks ago, I wrote, “JC Penny has has a tough go of it for such a superior company. The stock has been hammered down for a long while now and some of the senior management replaced. I think that so goes the US retail economy, so too with JCP.” I hardly think that JC Penny resolved their issues this month or that the market cap deserves to be up +16.03 pct in ten sessions.
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
XLP (consumer staples) gained +0.92 pct W/W to close at 29.46, but Friday’s gain (+1.06 pct) made the week.
WMT jumped +2.34 pct. Diageo (DEO) dropped -4.1 pct.
Cons Staples have been #7 performer the past two weeks, following a period of leadership in the market when prices had been looking bleak. Now, however, traders appear to want to take more risk, so, this week at least, the riskier Energy and Tech/Semi stocks are leading.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Following a robust prior week, IYH (healthcare) this week had a strong gain of +0.54 pct W/W to close at 73.12.
AET +5.5 pct and UNH +3.0 pct were strong. United Health, apparently, is recovering hundreds of millions in claims against previous senior executives.
Although Genentech (DNA) dropped -10.2 pct W/W, on Friday there was a gain of +2.9 pct.
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:
XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
