Congrats Bill!

time to bury the bonds?:

http://tinyurl.com/362dgd

in spite of one or two missteps, hulbert's sentiment timing systems have worked well for traders who like the 2-3 month time horizon...

Repost from yesterday's comments...

2nd...

I agree that there is a guarantee the market will correct from this week and so will QID... just can't guarantee the timeframe, price, rate, or volatility!

Unless you know Isaiah's situation & are his advisor though, guarantee needs to be backed up with something! How about some long calls? Send him an email money transfer? Some insurance? :)

I'd rather lose 'what if' paper gains in this market than real dollar losses. Though I'm putting my foot in my mouth here with KRY, I don't have much to lose relative to a guy I met last week who lost $600k in Nortel with the "buy, hold & prosper" approach. His best investment was buying a bare-bones pre-fab home (no kitchen or bathroom), dropping it on the foundation on a Friday, putting in the plumbing, fridge & a bbq on Saturday, and sitting on the porch of his new cottage on Sunday night drinking beer with some shocked neighbours who hadn't seen a house go up in 3 days before.

Like Bill, I smell a rat in this market, though I'm not about to bet against it just yet. There's unlimited upside and limited downside here, so to speak. You can only go to $0. What happens to QID when it hits $0? :)

Perhaps it is all the bonuses from HB&B getting paid out that are flowing into the market. I hear some of the Canadian banks are paying out a few more $$$ than last year.

Jock,

Thanks for your insight into Venezuela. I hope that buying or holding in fear makes sense in KRY's case... rather than dumping it just yet. Don't see a long-term play here either but things should get interesting after this weekend. I'll stay at the table to see what this turns into.

I tried to get a ValGold order filled on Friday but it didn't hit my "1/2 the price of a postage stamp" stink bid.

Hi Kaimu,

Do you have a blog? I liked your story about buying the painting for $4k at an auction and looking at a huge paper gain. Gotta lose the caps on your posts though... it's starting to sound like end is nigh! :) Though I think in real life you're an optimist. Why else would you sell flowers and live in Hawaii?

Do you pay taxes on $4k sale price or the >$50k that the art is worth? How about real estate? Do you pay taxes on how much you think your house is worth or how much it is actually appraised at? What about stock? Gold? I think taxes also have something to do with what the market is doing and where money is flowing. Do pension funds pay taxes? How about commissions? What's the commission on selling $8B worth of stock, even a money market? HB&B is laughing all the way to Hong Kong I think....

Do you think people bought Hummers because the price of gas was cheap, or because they could get one for less than a Toyota with a tax break?

http://tinyurl.com/create.php

I see a rise in the sales of bikes over the next year in Canada. They just announced a PST cut on all bikes under $1k.

Do you think that art, and real estate are a better investment than gold? Your experience and comments seem to indicate this between the lines, though as with many people on this blog you could be defined as a true 'gold bug', or at least a 'gold miner bug'. Gold is really "supposed" to be just insurance against inflation, but with ETFs and internet trading it has turned into a speculative position, as currency has with FOREX trading. Same with Uranium, Moly, Silver, Nickel, Copper, etc. etc. Bubble has to burst on these sometime... as it has with Real Estate in the US.

I hear it's easier than ever to get a mortgage in Canada these days though, and the 55 year mortgage may be back soon.

What happens with deflation? At least with art other people can admire it too. That is the kind of paper that doesn't devaluate. Though I could admire a stack of gold bars sitting in my closet, it would be hard to hang them on the wall for others to see. They could let me buy more art though. I could borrow against the gold maybe? Choices choices... wish I had some gold bars...

I just ran some quick numbers with Christie's auction site. For 2007, they sold $7.5B worth of stuff. Their two best months? May & November. November was their best month of the year, with a 25% gain over May.

Their biggest location? Hong Kong. 2nd biggest? NY. New York in May had about 60% of HK's sales. In November, NY had 50% of HK sales. That works out to over $1 billion dollars that was earned in HK vs. NY in November.

November was still their best month of the year.

In November of 2000, they sold $643M.
November 2001 - $375M
November 2002 - $288M
November 2003 - $353M
November 2004 - $923M
November 2005 - $1.7B
November 2006 - $2.8B
November 2007 - $3.2B

I guess people are not too worried about shipping costs going up. If that's not a bubble I'm not sure what is.

In this market, I would feel comfortable doing a buy-and-hold on QID, as long as I'm not betting the farm or buying on margin. Perhaps it will be an early Christmas present?

(Disclaimer - I will probably be buying Christie's or Sotheby's stock early next week. The CEO exercised some options so he has less to worry about with the stock price! Perhaps he bought some art or wine!)

Congratulations to Bill on the Forbes mention.

I used to have over 4000 blogs in my feed reader. After a couple of weeks that got old really quick, and I couldn't keep up with this guy, who wrote the book on blogs.

www.scobleizer.com

So now I just focus on a Bill's blog, and few of the blogs of the members here, and whatever links they may post.

To me having fresh opinions, even if they do go against the theme of the group, are the most valuable reads.

Congratulations for the recognition Bill. With most financial sources providing misleading and/or sensationalized spin, it's a breath of fresh air to follow someone who works to be honest. Thanks for the continued passion in providing guidance to Joe Sixpack and friends.

wavesmash- thank you for pointing that out...

what's at stake is really my (our) view of the world and the way "it" (collective human nature) works...which, of course, is not dollar-denominated (as it may be for some)...delivery may be unconventional, but the underlying wisdom is not...

if i may repost my appreciative response to jaketh: faith, doubt, and the ability to reach a goal/handle a loss->in sports, in love, in war, and in the mundane activities of everyday life...

all's fair in love, war, and the capital markets...isaiah no doubt listens to all voices, mainly his own...

("UNLESS you know Isaiah's situation & are his advisor though, guarantee needs to be backed up with something!" i (we) in facat "know" isaiah to the extent we share experiences/emotions in the market, and "advise" one another to the extent we
post- i could talk my way into an "out" here, but i won't ;)

i stand by my earlier posts...

Bill,

Your recognition is well deserved.

Congratulations.

Best,

As to whether art can be a good investment I can say that it can be but, as with anything, you had better be very sure of what you are doing. I am partnered with an expert who has a gallery and we have done some very good deals. I wouldn't think of buying something without his approval. As to the comment that art can't deflate, I would strongly disagree. Any collectable has risk. I deal in rare guitars and have done well with it but, for a non expert it would be a great way to lose money. I used to sell a lot to Japan but, that market collapsed literally overnight a number of years ago and it has not come back.

2nd, you're probably right about the short term direction of the market (you seem to have a good feel for this), but even Bill is willing to allow for the option of the Bull Market starting up again.

Good luck with your trading.

From today's Blog...
"Should the broad market resume a strong bull phase at this point, the VL rating change would likely work out as a profitable trading signal if the two stocks were hedged. However, should the broad market become very bearish in the months ahead, and the consumer economy continue to retract, I believe VL has made an ill-timed ratings change."

By the way, anyone else having trouble getting the link to Bil''s award to work? I'd love to see this, but it keeps coming up blank.

kry--venezuela reform vote sunday a yes vote----effect kry? a no vote effect kry? bill have a wonderful weekend. also all of the dat traders.

Maybe we can put this to bed. I first used the word “group think” on 11/28. The blog had a number of repeated bearish remarks over a period of time and Hammer1 came up with a comment about a possible “short term” Bull. He was refuted, but one reply had an edge of an “ad hominem” personal remark. (Hey, we all do it at one time or another, hitting that send button before we give it one more look.) Although I didn’t at the time agree with Hammer, I thought it healthy to see a contrary posting espousing the other side.

I’ve worked in a number of group dynamic settings and for some reason, I thought of the Bay of Pigs 1961 invasion. (For those born later in life, click on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink and scroll down to the Bay of Pigs.)

I then mentioned the dreaded “group think” words in a post simply to not discourage other credible viewpoints. When I say credible, I’m not talking Don Luskin here. My use of groupthink was not to say we were there as I truly believe Bill and all of us do critically analyze and evaluate ideas. Just that it’s a place out there we won’t visit.

Maggie picked up on the words and followed up with a posting @ 91 minutes later. She provided a list not a comment about group think. I saw no harm or intent in her post listing.

Unfortunately, as Bill stated some “jerks in the world who invite themselves in” picked up on the term with allegations. Sorry about that.

Let’s move on. Next case.
**************************

2nd, reference “sell the news” . . . Think they’ll sell the news unless it’s 50 points. If it is a 50, maybe they wait a day or two; then there’ll be some real selling.
**************************

Sounds like the jackals are in VZ.
A prior book recommendation, but in lieu of this morning’s discussion (on yesterday’s commentary), I recommend again reference VZ and U.S. intervention discussion:

An insiders view how the U.S. works thru the World Bank to influence, control other countries: “Confessions of an Economic Hitman” by John Perkins. Not saying you’ll like the author, but the message is enlightening and Perkins lived it. Easy, quick read.
*************************
wavesmash wrote: “I smell a rat in this market” . . . .

Remember, they don’t call Bill the rat catcher for nothing.
*************************
Finally, Bill, congratulations on the recognition. Before you know it, you’ll be at that 1000 daily post number. As always, thanks for all your efforts and insights.

Assuming no stupid questions..., why is gold selling off and I might add why is the usdollar going up when bond prices are coming down? Ultimately, for whatever reason about the usd and interest rates are just noise? Yep, Bill said that gold would move south..but seemed unsure as to far south/my interp when a few weeks ago pog seemed stubbornly strong.

fwiw, roger and bill are the only blogs I read...and darn...i thought that i was in a more exclusive group than the favorite of the masses. :)

Franco-Nevada

Anyone here participating in the Franco-Nevada re-IPO?

Be interested in hearing your comments as to what the value is you see here.

I think it is brilliant of you to position yourself as a populist Robin Hood. Fill your blog with verbose rhetoric against the brokerage industry that is every bit as good as Hugo Chavez's anti-American rants. Bravo!

Of course, had you actually succeeded at Canaccord and QTrade, you would now be revelling in your position at the inner sanctum of HB&B with the boys of Bay Street instead of being the self-appointed Champion of The Little People.

Exploitation of The Masses is done here the same way as it is done at HB&B. Same difference, except BillCara.com is more insidious because you are here to offer the personal touch, micro-managing "democratization" of investment advice a.k.a. "social equity" a.k.a. build groupthink by positioning your followers as part of an in-group working against an outgroup opposed to their goals in order to lever Bill Cara to take another shot at the big time: Trader City. Bahamas. IPO Bill Cara.

You can fool most of them most of the time, but you can't fool all of them all of the time.

jasper, as for weakness in the pm's, this could be a necessary correction or, as some are speculating, the beginning of a deflationary trend. Those making the deflation argument point to a bottoming dollar and the bond market witnessing declining yields.

And not many folks are paying attention to the drop in home prices.

I'm not sure sure where this ultimately goes, but I do know that for now at least this is not a good place to take the long side of the trade.

As for KRY and the VZ elections, I would tend to believe that anything that checks Chavez's power grab is good for outside investment.

But at this juncture, no matter what happens it appears that KRY is doomed.

FWIW, I usually perfectly reflect market sentiment when it comes to despair and euphoria, so that could mean KRY is about to blast off. ;)

number2son, and anyone...re price of gold

Ok, i might be catching on, deflation is definitely what is in the wind, and that is trumping threat of inflation? If so, big problem for the pms....and until hard numbers repeatedly affirm one of the other, could be volatile???? What the heck happen to "stagflation"? Home prices may be coming down, but not everything else. And, the credit crunch where it is harder and more expensive to get money...where does that fit in? I really would like to understand but in the absence of this, trading prices is where i come back to. Kicking myself, as much as I read this blog...I still managed to start accumulating gld...and went further than intended. FWIW, emerging mkts continue to shine, as well as bonds...new is rotation into health...we will see if this one has legs.

Piker,
Your post should lay to rest any criticism that this blog tolerates no divergence of opinion.
Your remarks ARE sigular in their lack of charity and class. If I was the editor, I would have asked you to rephrase for goodwll; guess Bill tolerates criticism better than most.

Cheers!

Bill,

Thank you once again for doing all that you do. Comments like the above illustrate for me why you get stressed occasionally. To come online every single day of the week, multiple times a day and post your thoughts about the markets... (your current thoughts transparent for all to see and comment), is truly saint like. All those who attack Bill Cara and those who post here, please be so kind to point to your blog and daily market thoughts and predictions. We'd like to see your record... and possibly comment.

I don't think there is group think here. I think there is a version of reality, and those that come here have sensed or seen the reality that Bill and others discuss here daily.

That was a personal attack on Bill. Really bad. Piker should take a hiker.

pik·er (pkr)
n. Slang
1. A cautious gambler.
2. A person regarded as petty or stingy.

I'm not sure we need pikers in this community!

About consensus: Bill is SO not the boss of me!

Deflationary points:

The collapse of housing prices has been a deflationary event throughout history, but it doesn't control others, such as the oil market.

I believe the oil markets and their runup were merely a way of undermining the Euro, which failed as a strategy. But what has been introduced is inflationary pressures to various markets affected by oil.

The whole idea is that "expensive" social programmes and a high currency would undermine the euro, but it hasn't. Instead, we are seeing costly military keynesianism in the US and its negative effects in misguided, disastrous foreign policy.

Bullion is in trade against currency crosses to do with the $US, so that is likely to be the pattern for the next while. In fact, bullion is favoured, as interest rates decline in many countries.

"had you actually succeeded"

we've all had the experience of delivering such a line (in straight-forward fashion, tacitly, or simply to ourselves on the drive home), so we all recognize the state of mind (or circumstances) from which it springs...it's just not a good state of mind to be in, my friend...

I first found BillCara.com last winter as a link on the (Jim) Kingsland Report. Does anyone know what has become of Jim?

bb

Have you partaken in an IPO before?

Bill:

Any comments on Claude Lamoureux's retirement party?

Would he be a good candidate to lead the OSC?

jasper- by the time everyone catches on to what's happening/happened and we can explain it in a textbook, the "play" is over...you're correct in trying to catch "what's in the wind" and which way it's blowing, but no one is going to be able to clearly delineate the what is largely a subconscious process...

This morning I wrote:

"To me having fresh opinions, even if they do go against the theme of the group, are the most valuable reads."

That doesn't include personal bashing of course... especially of our gracious host who spends way more time, money, and effort than the poster takes to spam this blog. Give me a break. That's like spraying graffiti on the guys house.

I have learned a lot from this blog and any comments like Mr. P's above are something I would prefer not to read. Opinions on markets are one thing... personal attacks are another.

2nd ave, agree with everything you said in your post. Just don't want everybody shorting themselves into disaster if this speculative burp turns into a belch... some people are more sensitive to suggestion than others, me being one of them. Nobody can guarantee the future... and stocks don't have money-back guarantees... unless you have a lot of stock and the government or banks decide to bail you out.

No need to be afraid to take losses if there is little expectation of gain. All depends on your situation & risk preference....

woolybear1 - I overheard a couple of guitar collectors talking at the art & antique show I went to a couple of weeks ago in NY. They mentioned that there is a lot of problems nowadays with counterfeits, and people who change fret boards & key components of guitars and still pass them off as original. Do you think this caused the Japanese market to die?

When I was in China a couple of years ago I went to a small museum owned by a key backer to PRC army. They had the originals of the vases and figurines that were being sold as clones in the markets. People over in China seem to be focusing more on original goods now, since they know that most counterfeits are garbage. They really liked my Calvin Klein jeans in the Pearl Market. The "CK Jeans" I bought from them lasted about a week. Maybe that's why Christie's is doing better in HK? Luxury is a necessity in China...

I agree totally with what you say about art and knowing what you're getting into, which is why most of my art is of the photocopied kind, unless its an original gift from one of my art-loving family members.

Piker just go to hell!!

Jaketh,

I also found this place from one of Jim's links.

Last I communicated with him, he was back to work in the financial media. He mentioned that he wanted to do a private newsletter for his former blog readers, but that was some time ago.

Regards

2nd ave,
No tell me it aint'so no one can explain;
Yes, I'm letting go of half and giving it to someone else to execute close to the exact same strategic process.The deal will be closed by the end of the week. Paying big bucks to do all this. Crazy but I will get back to kayaking some kentucky back waters and reclaiming some roots in nola before all the old ones pass on. But, I still have to figure out what to do with the other half. Strangely, I've come to the conclusion that for some of us, it may be harder to invest one's own hard earned assets versus someone else's money. Counterintuitive, to me. Now, I have to figure out how long I want to be what with the wrong side of the trade with gld. I hate the long underwater hold.

Bill must have known "Pikeslur" was going to be posting today.

Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 12/01/2007 11:33 AM ET

"Let no idiot divert our focus. At the end of the day, we are doing the right thing, and we will all be better off for it."

"If I was the editor, I would have asked you to rephrase for goodwll"

If I was the editor, I'd have my tech team trace Piker's IP and publish the results. :^)

BH:
Thanks for reply on JKingsland, another gentleman of the financial blogosphere.

Love the idea of a good, original art piece. We have some originals, but of no one too famous yet.

Art as an investment: Caveat Emptor!

Reminds me of the Dali art fraud case (late 80’s-early 90’s) which was tried years ago in Honolulu, HA. Thousands of Dali and celebrity print forgeries were sold to unsuspecting buyers. A federal jury convicted the perps and it was upheld by the 9th Circuit of Appeals. The Supreme Court refused to consider overturning the convictions.

Have a vague memory looking at a print or two in So Cal and must admit they were pretty good.

The federal government seized thousands of the counterfeit paintings and believe it or not, sold them off in an auction in 1995. All the auctioned prints bore small stamps indicating the prints were counterfeit, unauthorized and fake. But art is truly in the eye of the beholder.

http://www.pixi.com/~hicatt/part3.html

wavesmarsh,

I deal in classical and flamenco guitars. There are fakes but, not that many and are usually easy to recognize (for an expert). The collapse of the Japanese market coincided with the real estate and market collapse. The electric guitar market is very tricky and there are a lot of fakes. It is a completely different ballgame. I went to an auction at Christies in New York recently and prices were a bit weak.

Jasper
Kayaking, Kentucky... ever run into the infamous Joe "the raven" Knoepfler from Kettle, Kentucky? He is actually a C-1 guy, paddles an open canoe. I did a thirty day winter trip through the Grand Canyon with Joe (I rowed a 16' cataraft) and was amazed at his paddling abilities. Also did the Gates of Ladore on the Green with him. He is a hoot. Has a working farm in Kentucky and shares Kaimus view of the world.
Getting back on the river should be good for you, clears the mind. Maybe you should keep the other 1/2 in cash until then.
Great therapy. Good luck.

Congratulations, Bill.

I believe there is a serious risk of a deflationary collapse in the offing.

I was not in this camp until fairly recently. I am firmly there now.

What has changed?

The credit market seizure, which The Fed has not fixed - nor can it.

Why not?

Because the problem is loss of trust in the credit markets.

Without the issuance of credit (debt), the velocity of money spirals downward.

That's deflation - the destruction of money.

The problem here is that nobody's being honest in the credit markets. E*Trade is the latest - "we will remain well-capitalized with even $1 billion of writedowns" - two weeks later, they sell $3 billion "worth" for $800 million - a $2.2 billion loss.

There is no solution to the "credit crunch", nor will it go away, until this stops.

It will stop one of two ways:

1. The Government will step in and stop it. No more off-balance-sheet games - period. Right now, fix it, end of discussion.

2. We will suffer a deflationary collapse (aka the 1930s) and the market will take care of it by putting all the liars out of business.

The government can either do #1 or its going to GET #2.

And just like in '99/00, no, the administration will NOT be able to keep it under control until after the elections. Clinton tried that and it blew up in his face.

Such it will be again.

We've got major problems folks.

This isn't going to be your father's recession.

It might be your grandfather's depression, however, especially if the "hide the bad news" game keeps going on.

My Dear Piker,

The burden of that kind of Resentment for another must be Hell to bear. I cannot imagine the psychic pain you must feel. But I can assure you Sir/Maam that it does not hurt Bill Cara in the least. He is living a full life and sharing what turns out to be real valuable to a lot of people.

I pity you. Hope your posts brought you some relief. Misery loves company, you came to the wrong place. We don't do that here. Sorry.

Love and Light

Isaiah ,Isaiah,

Come out and play!!

You don't have to hurt alone. We will sit on the stoop with you and hold your hand. Just say hello so we don't have to worry, OK?

Love and Light

Bill
Regarding our JNJ options trade do you mean 'buy' a put rather then write - assuming you are long the stock. New to options so was wondering?

There sure is a lot more to this site than just opinion and crystal balling. I think back to the first WIR I reviewed from Trader Wizard. Even though I am well educated, successful and consider myself knowledgeable about business, I never could make much money in the stock market and numbers would show I probably never did. I tried hard, reading the WSJ, Barron’s, subscribing to thousands of dollars of newsletters. I read books, talked to stockbrokers and tried my best…but I never really even had a good overview of the world financial and capital systems until that first WIR. Then, in the beginning I could only understand small parts of what was there. As I read the WIR week after week and started studying small parts of it, little light bulbs started going off in my head and more relationships started to make sense.

During my lifetime, I have studied many subjects and when I begin to understand them I can feel the light bulbs lighting. The bulbs have really started lighting because of Bill Cara and I sense that big bulbs will soon light as I become more knowledgeable and study more aspects of capital markets using the WIR as a basic outline.

My stock portfolio has taken a big increase in value this year and I attribute it to this blog.

Before Trader Wizard, I did not even understand where to focus energy and relied more on opinions from the newsletter guys, stockbrokers and TV personalities…now I rely on the facts.

Bill Cara is a very generous man and I thank him for sharing the lifetime of knowledge he has gained by working in the capital market arena.

Most of all this blog has taught me to make my own decisions and not rely on the opinion of others.

The coming year will be the best I have ever had in the capital markets and thank you Bill for helping me understand the dance….a complicated relationship situation…..like an octopus dancing with a centipede.

You Go Bill!

Thank you very much for teaching me and providing this blog for others to teach me even more.

Sincerely,

A Humble Man

Genesis, appreciated your remarks

RE

"The problem here is that nobody's being honest in the credit markets. .....

There is no solution to the "credit crunch", nor will it go away, until this stops."

I was just thinking that way wondering which other state money funds will have runs like Fla or Montana. How many are on the edge? How about govt pensions or union pensions or ? Wonder where it will stop and how the Govt. will handle it.

Chavez & Venezuela -

Kaimu's main point was, I think, that Chavez has good reason to fear US interference.
Although Kaimu's source on CIA current actions may be uncorroborated, there is SUCH a long history of US intervention in Latin America. And ...

After all, John Negroponte, now no. 2 at the State Dept., was deeply involved in the Central American wars in the '80s, and later turned up as US ambassador to Iraq.

Then, there's Elliot Abrams, convicted of withholding Iran-Contra information from Congress, and then pardoned by George Bush Senior. He's now on W's National Security Council.

Otto Reich, former US ambassador to Venezuela, and Asst. Secretary of State for Latin American affairs in 2002 had met in the White House with the coup plotters against Chavez. The morning of the coup, Reich summoned ambassadors to Washington from around the region to trumpet US support for the coup. (per Wikipedia)

In such a context, I'd be surprised if the CIA HADN'T been pulling out all the stops to bring down Chavez.

laugh of the day

http://consumerist.com/consumer/errors/wachovia-tells-man-he-owes-21101002825730300-328863.php

apparently the bill should have gone to HB&B's derivatives traders!

New York Times December 1, 2007

"The new report concluded that personal income from wages and salaries grew at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter, far below the 4.5 percent that had previously been estimated."

"...he expected the government would revise its estimate of the number of jobs created in the quarter, to as little as 50,000 a month from 126,000 a month. That would indicate that the economy was much weaker than had been thought."

http://tinyurl.com/yt3ko8

The discussion of the hiker wrapped while I was still editing my note. My topic is related but hopefully more general.

I have followed this blog for over a year, Most days, I read every comment. The civility of this site is a great tribute to Bill and others. While posts are still open to misinterpretation, we are mostly an understanding group. If we have occasionally been too aggressive in policing the discourse on Bill's behalf, it only shows how much we value what Bill offers us: without this space and without Bill's contributions, we would all be much poorer (and in more ways than one).

Before I saw Bill's last post, I could only wonder if Piker was so new to the site that he or she had seen some rough edges without understanding the larger whole. I know of no other financial blog that has done so much to build community. Those sites that have begun to follow suit are still very early in their evolution. On one level, we are are a community of like-minded individuals; but on other levels, I am sure, we could not be more diverse. Although certain ideas will be regarded with skepticism, no viewpoint is unwelcome if the basis is thoughtfully provided.

I know that feelings have been hurt at times; but we are all just human after all. It is surprising that we do not misinterpret each other more often than we do. Some of us probably know occasional posters better than Bill does. Despite warnings about group-think, there is no reason for the community not to police itself in matters of protocol and respect. It is true that we have not always met the mark; but our intentions are stellar. If this is a mob, I could not ask for a more considerate one. I am extremely grateful to this forum for the benefit that it provides.

Bill,

Mazel Tov! Another year of awards for your great educational blog.

I'm glad you edited Piker out, it was disruptive.

I'm an infrequent blogger but an avid daily reader. Because of the
education I've received from Bill I made money in the PM's last month and most important I'm keeping my profits. I vowed the last time I was down 20% on my portfolio it would never happen again. Bill has opened my eyes to the games the" Street" plays.

Thanks again for your superior work.

Sarah-Hadassah

Did Peter Piker pick a peck of pickled peckers?

RE: “Chavez & Venezuela -
Kaimu's main point was, I think, that Chavez has good reason to fear US interference.
Although Kaimu's source on CIA current actions may be uncorroborated, there is SUCH a long history of US intervention in Latin America. And ...

Posted by: Jock at December 1, 2007 9:20 PM

“March 7, 1997
Cheddi Jagan, Guyana's Founder, Dies at 78
By LARRY ROHTER
Cheddi B. Jagan, the firebrand who led Guyana to independence and was one of the Caribbean's most contentious political leaders for half a century, died yesterday in Washington, where he had been hospitalized after a heart attack. He was 78.
Dr. Jagan had undergone heart surgery at Walter Reed Army Hospital after being flown to the United States on Feb. 15.
A dentist by training, Dr. Jagan rode the aspirations of Guyana's downtrodden Indian majority to power at a young age. But he was also a Marxist-Leninist of the pro-Soviet mold, which led to clashes with Churchill, who thought him a Communist puppet, and John F. Kennedy, who feared he aspired to install a ''second Cuba'' on the northern coast of South America.
Both those confrontations ended badly, with Dr. Jagan losing the post of Prime Minister to which he had been elected. But his popularity in his small country never faded, and he returned to power in 1992, nearly three decades after Washington engineered his ouster, with a softened outlook of his own and, ironically, the support of the United States.
Prime Minister Samuel Hinds, 53, was sworn in to succeed Mr. Jagan until elections can be held, probably this year. Mr. Hinds proclaimed six days of official mourning for ''the greatest son and patriot that has ever walked this land.''
Cheddi Jagan was born on March 22, 1918, on a sugar plantation near Port Mourant, in the eastern part of what was then British Guiana. His grandparents had migrated there from India as indentured laborers, and his father worked as the foreman of a work crew on the estate, giving the boy early exposure to poverty and exploitation.
The eldest of 11 children, he studied first at his village school, which was the extent of the education available to most young Indians at that time. But his parents made considerable financial sacrifices in order to send him to secondary school in the capital, Georgetown, where he excelled as a student, debater and cricket batsman.
At the age of 18, armed with his family's $500 life savings, he enrolled at Howard University in Washington, and entered the pre-medical program, majoring in dentistry. To help meet expenses, he worked as an elevator operator and, during the summers, as a patent medicine salesman in Harlem, experiences he would later say taught him bitter lessons about racism and inequality in capitalist societies. “

http://tinyurl.com/2rk72r

I KNOW what I’m talking about because I am Guyanese by birth. The massive “Brain Drain” of the end of the 50’s until the 1970’s, crippled the country for generations still to come. Innocent people are now scatterd around the world living as 3rd class citizens. The machinations of the CIA and the tyranny of the World Bank is immoral at best. Perhaps, Americans are simply not interested in “ what” it is their government do in “their “ names.

"fwiw, roger and bill are the only blogs I read...and darn...i thought that i was in a more exclusive group than the favorite of the masses. :)"

I'm with Jasper. Bravo Bill!

Piker? I appreciate the fact that he or she is blocked. People displaying bad manners should be limited in their displays to their own four walls.

Congrats Bill on the Forbes award, it just keeps getting better.

With respect to the banter over a few posts the last couple of days I was very surprised by some of the reaction posts. There were obviously many different interpretations of the same text and it reminded me of a quote on my office wall years ago. Not sure of the exact wording or the source, but went something like this;

"I know you think you understood what you thought I said. Unfortunately what I said is not exactly what I meant. "

Effective communication on a blog in simple B&W text is a challenge and can easily be misinterpreted. In normal life we expand on the words with facial and body language along with our tone of voice and maybe a wink. In person we know immediately if something is being received in way that was not intended and can take immediate action. We don't have immediate body language feedback on a blog, nor do we have the option to change our choice of words or spelling after pushing the post button. I'm sure every one of us has at one time or another wished for a 10 min grace edit period.

With respect to bullies looking for a fight, my experience on other boards has been to ignore them and they'll go elsewhere for satisfaction. However in disruptive cases sometimes action is required and based on what I read (my interpretation) I support the action Bill has taken.

Back to the data and looking for opportunities or at least a place to hide & protect some value.

"Perhaps, Americans are simply not interested in “ what” it is their government do in “their “ names."

moneygenie,

It's not that we aren't interested or don't care, it's just that the way the system is rigged, there is little we can do about it, short of another American Revolution and guess who has the big guns?

Many of us vote for alternative candidates, which makes us feel better, but in the end is an effort in futility.

The Republicrats and Demopublicans are all beholden to special interests, whom they depend upon for campaign contributions (bribe money).

Until enough voters are willing to support a viable third party, I suspect that little will change.

I'm not holding my breath.

Regards

I don't know If I accidentally helped the piker.

On November 29, I had a comment to Sharkie about how to change his IP with a link to a website.
The link also had help on how to hide your IP address.
The Piker appeard on Nov 30 and Dec 1.
Is it possible that one of the previosuly banned persons..?

Seems like the gang's got your back, Bill. Nearly 12 bells and all's settled back down in the hood. Good Night all.

JogyP,

It's possible, but I wouldn't worry about it. The information on how to do this sort of thing was already out there, and the immediate pages off your link don't seem to come close to pointing to that site.

What I find really entertaining is that I have reason to believe that The Piker's computer is infected with malware. So maybe he's just posting inflammatory messages here because he is so upset that his computer is having problems. ;)

Jeff

I offer this link to an interview of John Embry:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/55866-john-embry-on-gold-i-can-t-think-of-a-better-time-to-buy-juniors

regards
joey

Hi,

From a technucal perspective, I would feel inclined to call this already a bear market, and would also call for prices falling next week based on the fact that the last week´s rally failed when reaching the 200 DMA (SPX) and 50 day DMA (NDX).

Further, we all know that credit markets remain seized up, and that sooner or later this house of cards will fall apart.

However, something in my intuition tells me that HB&B will go on pumping this market between now and Dec. 11th (+ 1 or 2 more days, depending on how deep the cut is).

So, here is my trading strategy;

- As of Friday, I am 100% in cash or cash equivalents (but not money market funds).

- Get away from bonds, because a surprise can be in the making for the next couple of weeks.

- Get away from the EUR / USD cross, as I expect some USD pumping could occur in the days before Dec 11th.

- Get away from gold for the ime being, wait for a retracement before an entry

- Get away from commodiies, as these markets have already started to correct, as these traders have already noticed that the market will deflate

So, what o do?

- Dance the dance. Using only 10% of my portfolio, I am buying deep in the money calls over the broad market, with January maturity, with a 50% return goal on thece calls, which should mean a 5% total return for my portfolio.

- If I see the market failing to overcome the 200 DMA (SPX) and 50 DMA (NDX), these calls immediately convert into Puts.

This strategy implies a very nimble mental atitude towards this trade, and the willingness to lose a large percentage of this cash.

Looking forward to read the WIR later today.

Bill: simply ignore that guy's comments, you are above that.

Cheers from a lovely European morning.

maromatics- thank you for sharing your strategy, appreciate it...still in the planning stages, but you certainly have me thinking more along the lines of VaR (value at risk) and transitioning to options...it should be an interesting two weeks..

"the implication that winners in the securities industry are those that stay in the club"

well said- think about it->in any profession, don't find the truly talented, forward-thinking leaders in the clubhouse for long...not what life's about and not where true fulfillment lies...i'll let you think about those you admire in your own fields and why you admire them...

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/12/nine-ways-to-sunday-morning-coffee.html

Bill,

Ordered your book a couple of weeks ago. Any idea on average delivery time?

Thanks,

Ron

Maro,

Thanks for the post...very enlightening to me.

Bill: Unchalleneged slander most always achieves its intended effect: to damage a reputation. However distasteful, we usually do well to set the record straight in the minds which have been cast into doubt by the detraction.
Happily, Piker's post occassioned the release of autobiographical info which was unknown to most of us. The effect: all positive, thanks to your heckler.

“- If I see the market failing to overcome the 200 DMA (SPX) and 50 DMA (NDX), these calls immediately convert into Puts.

Posted by: maromatics at December 2, 2007 5:18 AM”

Macromatics, everyone,

Hello ,

What do you mean by convert? Sell the calls @ loss and buy Puts thereafter? Or is there a way to convert?
And how to do? I already have some Puts which were profitable but are now in the red. I was thinking I’d sell @ loss on Monday’s open but if I can convert for less then I’d really appreciate all the help.

TIA

good morning Bill,

A clear crisp San Francisco morning. I live on the embarcadero across from the Ferry Building. The port of San Francisco recently
finished a revitalization of the area. A great place to live.

I read this blog because of your integrity, secondly, your knowledge. I expect you to deal with angry bloggers. I can go to other financial blogs for other views.

Sorry for another entry about this Piker situation, but it annoyed me.

Sarah-Hadassah

Jaketh,
I'm happy to read the responses here proving that isn't always the case.

One misled angry statement doesn't overcome years of work and service.

The ratio is good though. In politics it takes seven positive statements to overcome one negative statement. Weird how humans tend to put so much stock in the negative.

Craig,
Yeah...when you're in the public eye, damage control is just part of the necessary housekeeping.

NYT today: Time for investigation? “ . . .it’s not the Vatican!” LOL! THIS IS HB&B.

Best article yet IMO on “peddling C.M.O.’s, and then shorting the junk on a titanic scale through index sales — showing . . . how horrible a product it believed it was selling.”

“The Goldman Sachs spokesman said that the company routinely shorts the securities it underwrites and said that this is disclosed. He noted candidly that Goldman is much more short in this sector than usual. “

http://tinyurl.com/3742gl

Goldman a little arrogant in their admission?

New York Times 12-02-2007

"The point to bear in mind, as Mr. Sloan brilliantly makes clear, is that as Goldman was peddling C.M.O.’s, it was also shorting the junk on a titanic scale through index sales — showing, at least to me, how horrible a product it believed it was selling."

"The Goldman Sachs spokesman said that the company routinely shorts the securities it underwrites and said that this is disclosed. He noted candidly that Goldman is much more short in this sector than usual."

"HERE is a query, as we used to say in law school: Should Henry M. Paulson Jr., who formerly ran a firm that engaged in this kind of conduct, be serving as Treasury secretary? Should there not be some inquiry into what the invisible government of Goldman (and the rest of Wall Street) did to create this disaster, which has caught up with some Wall Street firms but not the nimble Goldman?"

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/02/business/02every.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

Sometimes in these cases, .

Responding to everything as if they are all equal can be counter-productive.

Some remarks are out of bounds from the get go and they warrant a fatal counter blow. Is there any doubt if this comment were made in Bill's living room or place of business that this cretin would have been shown the door or been forcefully ejected?

I've seen Bill deal with actual criticism and debate quite gracefully. I think he respects a real debate. Does he dress it up a bit? Would you read here if it were boring, bland, run of the mill fiscal dregs? No, the guy can write too. That's what makes Bill Cara dot com special. Premium comprehensive content, entertaining engaging presentation, meaningful and enlightened discourse.

Piker could be Peter. Seems like his comments about the Bahama plans remind me of Peter. If that is so, then he could come back again under another alias. Just my 2 cents.

Dang. My beginning sentence didn't work. Apparently typekey doesn't like arrows and equals symbols. Maybe if I put it in brackets?

I meant:
Sometimes in these cases, () less is more.

Regarding trolls and unchallenged slander: I was surprised to read a couple of posts that seemed to require some sort of rebuttal or confrontation of troll-like behavior. "On whose behalf?", I must ask.

On behalf of Bill? I hardly think that Bill is required to challenge any troll. To do so only gives greater weight to the transgression than it deserves.

On behalf of the blog? I'd like to think that most people here are savvy enough to recognize malevolent behavior and have enough self control to ignore. With great shame, I must admit to be failing in the latter as to offer a reprobation or two if incensed enough.

Well crafted challenges to malevolents and buffoons is an accepted art form and in fact is the basis for social change--one only has to read any of the great political/social commentaries (J. Swift, P. Henry two examples). It is time consuming, though, and I'd rather Bill ignore such behavior than spend his precious time and energy crafting such.

Naturally, unsavory and salacious comments should be expunged. I certainly do not wish to see the naming of body parts or worse the description of body parts engaged in uncivil activities. That's just vulgarity, and vulgarity serves no purpose whatsoever. I do expect Bill to protect the board from vulgarity--though personally, I have no need for such protection.

I'm an advocate of leaving malevolent comments up so long as they are not vulgar. Keeping such posts ups serves as the equivalent of putting up the reputation of the witless offender in stocks for public display. No rebuttal that any of us could craft could be more shame inducing than the naked display of a troll's poor behavior for all to see.

I don't quite follow the logic that Bill's ignoring goof-ball posts in anyway impugns his integrity unless I misunderstand the meaning. As to reading someone first for integrity and then for knowledge, I would only offer that I'm glad that Bill has both. But there are plenty of folks who are long on integrity and short on knowledge, and I doubt that I would spend much time with them.

2nd,
How do you enter less than and greater than arrows in your posts? Mine are in invisible photons.

Jaketh,

I'm still around, but doing some special editorial projects that prevent me from blogging. Thanks for asking. -jimk

jimkingsland@gmail.com

Moneygenie,

Thanks for the question: indeed my text was not entirely clear.

What I meant was that if I see that the 200 DMA on the SPX and the 50 DMA on the NDX stop the bulls, then I will sell my calls and buy puts immediately.

The reason for this tactic is simple:

1. Apparently, there will be some pumping going on, albeit the technical signals are mixed across different time frames.

2. A breakout above those levels projects the indexes to test the market tops.

3. A failure to breakout will mean that the indexes print a lower high, and accordingly will most likely print a lower low upon a breakout failure.

In a well established bear market, and considering that these resistence levels were tested out last friday with no success, I would be certain to buy puts right now.

HOWEVER, as Bill has pointed out, we are at a trend juncture, and technical analysis is not as credible on time like this, than it is when the trend is clearly defined.

Think about it: it may be the case (in theory) that we are not quite yet in a bear market, and that the market is trading in a lateral trading range.

Remember that considering that money loses value over time, a lateral trading range, in reality, is one form of market correction.

If that is the case, then the indexes will appear to soar up to the previous highs but will most certainly not be able to break them.

If you are not comfortable with trading options, please accept the prudent advice: sell into strength whatever long positions you have and watch from the sidelines.

Again, as Bill has rightfully taught us, there is nothing wrong with skipping the last dance before you start shorting the bear market.

Actualy, if you think about it, that is what most traders are doing: the low upside volume on the equity indexes, and the influx of cash into treasuryes is a signal that smart money is already out of long equity positions.

Why bother trying to be different that the smar money?

Hope this has helped...

>> I first noticed that the greater than and less than symbols cannot be used in the comments because the hyml treats them differently. Sorry, but, not being a techie, I cannot help. <<

You just need to HTML encode those symbols: &gt; or &lt;

http://www.w3schools.com/tags/ref_entities.asp

P.S. - Yay, I finally get to teach Bill something!

That makes the score about 100 to 1, Bill. ;)

Another banned Piker?

http://forums.macrumors.com/member.php?s=6526b3eab0d365b45f362dc3fee30f05&u=33020

Leisa,

"I don't quite follow the logic that Bill's ignoring goof-ball posts in anyway impugns his integrity unless I misunderstand the meaning."

May not seem logical, but the fact is that such postings, in fact, can have negative effects.
"On whom?" you ask.
Who can know. But, in my experience, you don't leave it to chance. And, if you can turn it into a teaching moment, all are served.

Bill, Leisa is a woman who does not take fools kindly but knows restraint. I guess that is part of her willingness to see quite a bit from both sides, but still walk softly with a big stick. I'm chuckling. Blogging can be an adventure in perception. Anyway,her position on trolls resonates with me.

I sent shark information about changing his IP a while ago. SixApart also has a problem reporting link on their web site, where login problems can be submitted, which I suggested he use. I also sent him several other suggestions for things to check that can affect login. I don't know if he has done any of that. I really think submitting his problem to SixApart is the best thing to do at this point.

Shark?!

maromatics - Looking at the reasons for your tactics, with which I agree, I wondered how I might add in a tactic for addressing the possible impact of the upcoming FOMC rate cut this month.

I found a very helpful discussion/charts of impacts on stocks from previous cuts in an article by Chris Ciovacco at this link (I have no connection to the author or to his service.)
http://tinyurl.com/2uc8kd

Since this last cut, the S&P made a higher high, but then dropped into a Bear step down mode until the last three days which by my interpretation of the Ciovacco work means at least to me - unclear at this point.

My additional tactic will be to look for the market to "quick step" in a series of twirls with possible good day trades on select stocks until the announcement. Within a few days after the announcement (forget rumors!) is made, I think we will see the next true IT move develop and that will be the time for deciding which: puts or calls to buy/write.

jmho

Often times any member of a board whose opinion conflicts with the consensus would become a troll, because there is an inherent need to build a consensus by singling somebody out. This is how collective experience builds up and how it works.

One person's opinion is of limited impact, that's what the internet is about. You can express any thought you like. The only danger is that the internet can be used like any other media in telling people what they want to hear in the attempt to control perceptions.

That's probably worse than having someone calling attention to themselves and ruining any chance of being respected on an internet forum.

I'm very against scapegoating on the web.

I have to agree with you Jaketh. As the blog gets bigger, the newer readers might not be as familiar with Bill's history. Many might think of him as just another trader running a blog, because they only read the daily posts and have not familiarized themselves with the content listed in the pages above. The stories from his experiences that occasionally come out, however, show how much more accomplished he really is, and it shows new readers why there are so many who post here frequently with heartfelt thanks.

Piker, if you are still reading, success is not making it to the "top" of your profession, especially if it involves questionable behavior. It is accomplishing the goals that you set out for yourself and living by the rules that you deem important. There is little else in life that you can control. Do you have any standards? I am not sure you do based upon your post. Challenging Bill's methodology or opinion on the market is one thing, ad hominem attacks on a rather gracious host are another. But thanks anyway. We all had the pleasure of reading another good story.

Spot,

Thank you for your comment and for the link.

Very interesting information there.

Of course I agree with your opinion for the day after the FOMC cut: wait and see.

For the time being, it is indeed quickstep, mixed with some Tango (adding a little bit of drama), I guess...

Cheers,

Jasper, I appreciated yesterday's comment at 12:26 on weekly trade signals. Is this a signal you produced and tested or one that was by someone else? I reviewd the signal on a few indexes and would like to look into it further.

thank you.

“I'm very against scapegoating on the web.”

Posted by: FranSix at December 2, 2007 2:21 PM

But Fran Six, within the context , are you suggesting THE PIKER is being scapegoated here,? (if that’s not a word then it is now).

I am not so stupid as to think for a moment that Bill Cara is manna from the God’s whom I will follow blindly no matter what. I read this blog to learn from the info and insights of others. I trade prices from the first and last. What I read here helps me to make choices and that is a lot .

Regardless of the missing body language and all the rest , it is clear that Piker meant to influence the opinion held by the participants here of Bill Cara. What else do you suppose it means?

Posted by: maromatics at December 2, 2007 12:41 PM

Thanks much.

I love this blog. Me, a lowly factory worker, trying to improve myself and my condition able to access the thoughts and ideas of folks of whom I would never otherwise have the chance. This blog is usually so well behaved that the "piker" thing kinda came as a shock out of the clear blue. I agree with Jaketh that in the final analysis it was not altogether a bad thing in that gave Mr. Cara a chance to set the record straight with more of his highly entertaining,informative and impressive back story. Again I feel highly priveledged to be able to access all of this absolutely free of charge and without obligation. Is Bill a winner or loser for doing this thing. I don't know. He maybe even asks himself the same question sometimes. From what I have been able to gather over the many months of reading is that he has all the hallmarks of a winner.That is that he doesn't give up when the chips are down or the tide turns. He soldiers on. I would never have the courage to talk so openly about my health,family , plans, likes ,dislikes etc. as he does. He puts everything out there. I mean all the investment advice is superb and obviously well appreciated but there is something much more coming through as well.I think this is something very rare. I can't see how anyone would fear that readers of this blog are in danger of giving up their own autonomy in favor of some predefined consensus that must be followed.In fact the opposite is true. The consensus changes with the circumstances. If nothing else this blog demonstrates a healthy evolution and adaptation to changes in the environment. Survival individually and collectively depends on being able to identify and face the challenges before us.I would say to anyone who feels that there is a threat to their interests from reading what is presented here,they should go ahead and follow their own instincts.If it's to fight. Then to do so fairly. If it's to flight, then , good luck and God bless.

Re: HTML characters, less than, greater than etc.

Yes we all see this blog as text but really its and web page composed of HTML coding to generate all the bars, lines, hyperlinks and symbols etc. The angle brackets are one of the basic html coding symbols so if you use just one, or the same one twice it will usually appear, but as soon as you use two (left and right side) you are enclosing something which your browser then tries to translate as code. The results are not always what you expect and using the preview prior to posting does not always show what will actually appear.

As number2son said its an HTML encoding issue, and provided the link to W3Schools, one of my favorite html learning sites on the web.

Many forums etc often have a test page for users to place practice posts to see what they really end up looking like. Excellent spot to learn how to make the angle brackets show up or how to embed linked charts if allowed, etc. Blogs and forums use different software and many handle the input post text in slightly different ways, so what works on one site may not on another. Now the practice posts will build up there, but nobody except those practicing will be looking at them. Also the administrator can program the site to delete posts older than say 30 days just to keep it cleaned out.

just another couple of ideas that might be available in MT4

(In Canada) "The C$33 billion ($33 billion) ABCP market has been frozen since mid-August as a blue chip group of investors and banks tries to craft a workout under a standstill pact dubbed the Montreal Accord."

"Hoping to avoid a wholesale liquidation of ABCP assets, Banks and corporate holders have already taken some C$1.2 billion in writedowns on the opaquely structured paper that is backed by bundles of mortgage, credit-card and other payments."

Stephen Jarislowsky, the octogenarian billionaire and pre-eminent Canadian investment counselor, steered clear of ABCP. He left it, rather, to the market "alligators" to gobble up what was supposed to be triple-A short-term investment.

"It's all part of the greed and performance measurement syndrome in this country," Jarislowsky told Reuters.

"They thought that it was perfect, solid, sound paper, but how they came to that conclusion I will never understand."

http://tinyurl.com/2dzykv

maromatics December 2, 2007 5:18 AM
RE TA on the S&P etc.

Thanks for the detailed input and your analysis behind it along with the further explanation of the put / call option play.

My feelings are much the same, we are at a crossroads here with a change to the bear side based on the fundamentals of the US markets in general.

But from my limited playing around with TA, if I look at the 5 year trend on the SPX we are still within the trend at the bottom of the channel and we've been there before. I see the TA trend as fragile but not yet broken and we could see a little rally here, maybe to the mid point not the top, then roll over and fail out the bottom. But it hasn't happened yet and if the USD just keeps going down this trend channel could continue for some time.

If I look at a limit analysis, if the USD approached zero, stock prices (in USD) would approach infinity, but at that point you still haven't increased your real portfolio value, as you would need an infinite number of wooden nickels just to buy a loaf of bread.

Chart 5yr SPX trend
http://tinyurl.com/2lg6go

Now if I look at the same product and chart, but from a different point of reference, say in Canadian dollars which are not being debased at the same rate. The story looks very different, maybe some support here, maybe a little bounce, but certainly no uptrend channel, maybe an expanding wedge with increased volatility. This is volatile risky chart that I would not enter, except on the very short term and for me helps to confirm that the uptrend on the USD chart is not likely sustainable.

Chart 5yr SPX trend in $CDN
http://tinyurl.com/2sslhl

One thing I've learned in looking at charts over the years, is that I can often predict what will usually happen, until it doesn't.

The discussions here from Bill and all of you, help to keep me focused on the bigger picture.
Thankyou

No, moneygenie,

I think the Piker may suppose he can shine one on over gullible and fearful readers.

Malaysia's Genting builds stake in Rank
By Ben Harrington and Iain Dey
Last Updated: 12:45am GMT 02/12/2007

One of Malaysia's richest families has bought a secret stake of more than 10 per cent in Rank, the bingo and casino operator. The shareholding, which was amassed in the past few days, could spark a bidding war for Rank. The UK operator has been tipped as a take­over target ever since a profit warning last month sent its shares crashing to their lowest level in seven years.

http://tinyurl.com/2lh97t

Quasi,

That is pretty much it, I suppose.

As 2nd ave has commented above: really interesting days are ahead.

Have a good week.

Cheers

Festive welcome for Russian voters As Russians vote in parliamentary elections, two BBC correspondents report on the mood at polling stations in different parts of the country.
At a polling station in Moscow's poor suburb of Butovo, there was full-scale election razzmatazz - Soviet style.

Patriotic music blaring out of loudspeakers rang across snow-covered streets, reflecting from the walls of post-Soviet apartment blocks.

Polling stations provided food and refreshments at low prices
And the selection of songs was anything but random - not a single track failed to remind voters they belong to "a great historic nation".

Inside, a buffet offered meat pies at eight roubles ($ 0.30) apiece and tea at one rouble ($0.04) a mug. This is about one-tenth of what most Muscovites would expect to pay on an ordinary day.

All of this was deeply reminiscent of the way Soviet elections worked. Perhaps, the only difference was that prices in the buffet were higher - and the choice of parties was wider.

But then again, just like in the Soviet days, there was never any doubt about who would win.

President Putin's party, United Russia, is set for a landslide victory across the country.

http://tinyurl.com/38jv4k

PS: As you might guess, I'm reading . Just sharing links , may be ignored as deemed necessary.

Love and Light!

Bill, congratulations! Forbes takes their own stands, and it is good to see them with you. It is to our detriment that we ignored Steve Forbes' flat tax proposals, instead allowing the barrister class to maintain their choke hold on the tax code. If that domino were to fall, many of their other unwelcome interpositions into our lives would follow. Ireland, Russia and Estonia are disparate examples of the economic boon from the flat tax rate.

I do not like the spike on the Dow in the last 15 minutes of Friday. The manipulators may have more dry powder in store. Perhaps they can disregard the depressing jobs restatements that just emerged since they are using other people's money to bid the positions. The insider buying ratio is also very bullish. However the other side of the buy is the unwillingness of the insiders to sell into a bad market. They have time to wait, and imho, that is a biases the ratio. Jim Rodgers actually called out the statistics about a month ago: 'fraudulent' was his term for the employers survey job numbers. I don't have the link, but if you search for it on Utube, it is hilarious. He and Betty Lu are on Bloomberg, riding Helicopter Ben in ways that even Ron Paul did not. I am entering Monday with short positions on the most overpriced high beta pigs that the manipulators love. I do not set stops, but if I see any more vertical ascent slopes, I will know that I am playing with a marked deck of cards and cover into cash. Just what the heck is Hanky Panky trying to accomplish at the Treasury except save the hides of those about to get marked to market. Fannie and Freddie.. unbelievable on Friday.

Bill.....Jock, 2nd ave et al who have been tuned into future developments:

Bill's Global list of stocks is brilliant as, in my estimation, the S&P no longer represents "the market". Bill covers both the world and sectors.

Is the U.S. Cara 100 already here and I've missed it?

Are there any other lists to start studying? What's on the menu for future dining here?

Am I a greedy Cara blogee? Guilty.

I'm soon to be ready to get stressed out by having time to concentrate on stocks and theme investing. But, still have time for "therapy"....paddling those still wintry waters...the quiet quenches my thirst for nature as much as anything.

One of the biggest operators in the booming dry bulk shipping market has warned that conditions where charter rates for ships have nearly tripled in a year, were “insane” and “unsustainable”.

http://tinyurl.com/3ylvq3

"At present, soaring shipping rates threatened to create inflation in every economy in the world, he added."
...

"Howard Bright, director of Dry Bulk at Braemar Seascope, a London-based shipbroker, said: “We’re quite convinced there’s no need to panic in the next couple of years”."

Nothing to see here... move along...

Quasi 5:03pm on the $USD charts.

Thanks for mentioning the $USDollar and sustainability of its current upmove. Just a point of chart clarification for the $USD: The monthly chart (in StockCharts) still shows $USD in the RSI(7) AZone, below the 30_ line, but both the weekly and the daily charts show $US have crossed above the 30_ buy line, and both of those charts further show a cross upward through significant downtrend lines of about 16wks length for confirmations in those time frames.

According to my understanding of Bill's guidelines, the $USD is currently in a "Buy" status in two of three timeframes. As to sustainability of the move, I guess the applicable rule is "It works until it doesn't." I must use my own "stops" to guide me until I receive Bill's book, in which I hope to see futher guidelines on what to do when and if price doesn't reach a SellZone (if covered in earlier posts, I've missed it).

For myself, I plan to use the $USD chart by not to looking for a Buy signal in Gold, Canadian Miners, or Currency ETF's until $USD drops back below its current (but broken) daily/weekly downtrend lines - but that's just me. Good trading!
*************
wavesmash - I believe the rule is: If panic comes, then panic early.

Bill,

Re: "Piker"
Sticks & stones may break my bones , but words can never hurt me!

Keep up the excellent work. My day is never complete until I have read your daily comments.

Posted by: spot at December 2, 2007 6:36 PM
Re $USD charts

Yes I agree the $USD charts are currently overextended to the downside of the current trend and banging off the lower Bollinger bands. With respect to the RSI 7, yes the daily and weeklies have crossed the 30 line, monthly still below but with some bias I could say its ready to turn up, but I'd be leading the monthly chart data.

Agree the 16 week downtrend line from mid Aug 07 has just been crossed on the daily and weekly charts, I would expect a little rally, say maybe to the mean of the downtrend, around high 70's low 80's. This would also correspond to some previous support areas which now may be resistance.

So if the $USD did rally a little this would price US stocks in $USD lower, (if all other things remained constant), and drop us out of the bottom of the uptrend channel on say the SPX. At that point the rollover would be confirmed and we start playing the bear full tilt, until it changes. But at this point I still read the long term chart for the SPX as in consolidation (sideways, transition ?), and a new downtrend channel has not yet been established. Time will tell and it will probably start with a bang.

Now it could just as easily go the other way, $USD rising and US stocks rising as investors don't want to miss the next boat. Then the financial entertainment TV analcysts who change their spin daily, will drive it up to greater fool levels and we'll start all over again.

These are certainly interesting times, as I'm mostly a longer term player I'm standing aside for the most part although trying to be nimble once in a while for a low risk short term play.

Oooops
Posted by: Quasi at December 2, 2007 8:39 PM

Spelling mistake second last par, "analcyst" should read "analyst".

Or in some cases maybe not, subconscious taking over here, probably too much Merlot with Sunday dinner.

Quasa - Given the context of that para, "analcyst" might be Freudian but it fits all the same - gg

Enjoy the wine with a smile.

Shipping rates aren't creating inflation all over the world.

Shipping rates are the RESULT of inflation all over the world.

ALOHA !!

Bill ... You deserve the FORBES award no matter what!!!

Jock ... Exactly! The USA has been throwing down the GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY card since forever against just about any Third World country! What were the last ones? Panama and Grenada! Now Venezuela ...

MikeNYC ... PERFECT !!! Shipping rates are just a reflection of monetary inflation caused by excessive US government spending and money supply. Monetary inflation is not just reserved for the US Peso though, so shipping rates are rising globally because the underlying cost of oil is rising. Oil prices rise because of monetary inflation. It has nothing to do with supply and demand. This is strictly monetary inflation!

If you go to this website you will see numerous charts showing supply and demand and clearly there has been little to no change over the past three years yet the price has gone up from some $40USD to $90USD, or over 100%, since 2005.

We continuously hear about how the emerging markets are driving demand sky high! So is it China? Or is China just compensating for falling demand from other countries whose economies and manufacturing have shifted to emerging markets. Global government militaries are also a factor keeping demand sustained at current levels. You cannot just go on a road trip to Beijing and assume that all Chinese cities are the same. The vast portion of China's population are not in the major cities and the vast majority of Chinese are not prosperous car driving middle class!

Monetary inflation and government excise taxation are to blame for higher oil and pump prices. There is no credible evidence that higher oil and gas prices are due to higher consumption and lower supply ...

Long ago in the early 1980s the US government under the Carter administration decided to increase taxes on oil producers via the "Windfall Profit Tax". My Father who was with Chevron Oil then said the major US producers were just capping US oil field production because it was cheaper to buy oil from Saudi Arabia and ship it to the USA than to produce oil domestically and they could avoid the "Windfall Profit Tax". Those government lawmakers always a "brick short of a load"!

Whenever there are high prices or supply problems or economic malfunctions you can always rely on government(US and foreign)to be the source of the problem.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2l95np

Craig,

If you could please give me the contact information to your coin dealer who sells gold American Eagles $10 above spot, I'd greatly appreciate it. noviceemail@gmail.com Thanks.

Mining costs are front and center in the Junior mining sector, since the wheels have come off the cart on many plays in the past year.

I find it curious that larger companies with hedge books and profitable operations are typically held in contempt when optimistic forecasts/numbers manipulation were the primary reason for share price collapses in the junior sector.

Junior Mining Company Credibility in Question

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8943.htm

Fransix - thanks for the URL.

VZ -

Looks like Chavez has lost his referendum, which I believe is GREAT news. Maybe he'll "curb his enthusiasm", think about why he lost, and spend more time running his gov't than initiating "wars of words" with other heads of state.

I think his best "revenge" (against his opposition, and BUSH) is governing well. Because the basic task of finally giving the VZ people basic health, education, and employment has been neglected for too many decades of oil wealth!

A half century of oil and half the population still live in abject poverty! And it's not as if VZ has a huge population to contend with like Iran VZ=25M. Development is a doable task there. And if he really did the tough work of creating development socialist style .....

for one thing he'd leave the mining to miners!

Bill is always talking about "paid for talking heads on CNBC." If you find Bill overly cynical, try reading Hussman's letter this week (gotta respect his response to CNBC):

"I appeared briefly on CNBC last week to discuss recession risk, but beforehand, I was asked to put a positive tone on my comments, to which I responded – “Look, my interest is in making sure that investors have positions that they are able to hold through the complete market cycle, including a potential 30% bear market loss off the highs, without having their financial security endangered. If they're carrying more risk than they could endure through the course of a bear market, they should cut back now. I'm not going to wave my arms around about doom and gloom, but I think it's a crucial time for investors to think about the risk they're taking, and if you don't want me to say that, please don't have me on.” Well, I went on, and though we ran short of time, that's still my message."

source:
http://tinyurl.com/yvnjjo

LOOK AT ALL THE GREAT NEWS TODAY...

From...http://www.247wallst.com/

Reuters "the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 100 basis points before June to help the housing market, Citigroup's (C) chief economist, Lewis Alexander, said on Monday."

"Bank of America downgraded online discount brokerage firm E-Trade Financial (ETFC) to sell from hold, saying it no longer believes the value of its retail brokerage business can offset negative value at the bank." E*Trade may have to take another $1 billion in new reserves according to the report.

A Huge Bail-Out for Citigroup (C) Based on the E*Trade math, Citi cold face a total of $26 billion in after-tax write offs.

It is never good news when a home-builder sells a big portion of its real estate. Lennar (LEN) sold 11,000 home sites for $525 million. A company controlled by Morgan Stanley (MS) will take control of the land. Lennar will be able to buy-back some of the properties.

FedEx (FDX) Chief Looks For Big Down-Turn
Fred Smith, the long-times CEO of FedEx (FDX) thinks that the global recession can't be avoided. The American economy is not growing, and its multinational companies won't find enough business outside the US to offset problems at home.

Shoppers Wait Out Retailers On Price Cuts
Over 50% of holiday shoppers are wandering through malls baiting retailers. They are saying "We are here, but we ain't buying yet."

NEWS LOOKS GREAT TIME TO PRIME THE PUMP FOR ANOTHER 300 POINT RALLY...Hold your nose and BUY BUY BUY...Things are GREAT...

Greetings from the Garden Spot!

Here are your Cara 100 Changes for today:

Target Raised:

ATVI - $26 < $27.50 @ Broadpoint Capital

-------------------------------------------------

As previously pointed out, former Cara 100 member, ETFC has been downgraded to sell @ Banc of America Sec.

Have a great day.

Fed's Rosengren says 20% of subprime borrowers have good credit.

That would mean.....80% DON'T. Add to Moody's wonderful news of downgrading $105 billion in SIV's.

Usually when we get this kind of stellar news the market will rally a few hundred points.