Bill Cara: Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 12/01/2007 11:33 AM ET

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December 1, 2007

Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 12/01/2007 11:33 AM ET

Forbes Magazine in their Best of the Web Week of November 26, 2007 reviewed Random Roger’s Big Picture. Congratulations to Roger Nausbaum. Forbes also reiterated BillCara.com blog as their favorite investing blog. Until I hear otherwise, then, since these reviews are quite infrequent, I’ll take that as a Star for 2008.

Blogging is that wonderful space where like unfettered children we get to speak our mind while still being accused of being of one mind.

stktrader: You asked, "Have you been reading on the newswires the Chavez rants; cut off oil to the US on Monday, nationalize Spanish banks, expel foreign journalist, military guarding the oil fields. He's getting nervous that he might lose the vote. What a nut. How did he ever get so far up the ladder?"
Maggy posted the symptoms of groupthink a couple of days ago, but her comment was ignored, blown off. It seems to me that leaders rise to power by establishing a personality cult. They maintain their hold on the people by being populist and promoting groupthink. In time, they are proven wrong, discredited and thrown out, but not until their supporters are thoroughly bankrupted. Not just in Venezuela, but everywhere, including the financial blogosphere....
Posted by: The Piker at December 1, 2007 12:07 AM

Pike, I have inferred your meaning. It is true, we are a bitter mob, foaming at the mouth. I am not claiming to speak for others, however, in groupthink, as you and Maggie astutely pointed out, there is no other. Being subsumed in groupthink, I can speak as a group, not as an individual. And your comparison of Bill Cara and Hugo Chavez is uncannily perceptive, both are prehensile, ambitious dictators, aligned not in ideology, but in their lust for power. I will try to individuate, to break the mental chains that I have willingly worn, as Bill's disciple. However as a groupthinker, is it in my power to do so, to be free?
Posted by: calvino at December 1, 2007 1:37 AM

Apparently though, the Blogosphere and MainStreamMedia are starting to think alike with respect to securities regulation. Today, the Toronto Star, Canada’s largest circulation newspaper, has started a series on market regulation. We agree that it is in a pathetic state and in need of a complete rebuild.

In a front page, top of the fold article today, headlined “Why the OSC so rarely gets its man”, this article continues for two full pages (10 and 11) quoting from industry leaders, former regulators, academics, and the public, in language every bit as colorful and pointed as I have used in this blog.

The best we can say is that the regulatory system doesn’t work, particularly with regard to the Ontario Securities Commission. Although the mandate is to serve and protect the public, there are many, like me, who believe it does precisely the opposite.

Traders who still harbor the notion that markets are fair ought to read this article and follow the series in thestar.com.

Tables

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

XLF 31.05 0.80 2.64% 6.08% 1.17% -3.21% -15.90% -6.90% -18.29% -12.95%

XLB 41.78 0.50 1.21% 5.72% 3.67% -1.32% 20.72% 7.82% 2.65% 19.37%

IYH 72.73 0.13 0.18% 3.68% 3.10% 2.65% 9.43% 6.63% 0.82% 10.20%

XLY 34.67 0.53 1.55% 3.34% 1.85% -3.02% -9.99% -5.07% -13.30% -7.99%

XLI 39.40 0.19 0.48% 3.22% 1.55% -1.15% 11.84% 1.47% 1.23% 12.19%

IYZ 29.25 0.33 1.14% 2.63% -0.61% -6.49% -1.38% -11.20% -15.22% 2.56%

XLP 29.19 0.14 0.48% 2.28% 2.64% 4.81% 11.07% 8.80% 5.04% 13.98%

XLU 42.73 0.19 0.45% 1.93% 2.54% 2.74% 16.05% 10.58% 2.47% 16.30%

SMH 32.32 -0.33 -1.01% 1.67% -1.16% -5.14% -3.72% -13.58% -10.64% -6.45%

XLE 73.40 0.28 0.38% -0.88% 3.67% -1.77% 29.73% 6.53% 6.92% 21.30%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

CEO 184.57 -1.19 -0.64% 6.26% 10.89% -8.63% 95.79% 57.62% 99.79% 107.73%

CVX 87.77 1.21 1.40% 1.27% 4.29% -1.43% 23.67% 0.67% 6.71% 21.36%

XOM 89.16 0.57 0.64% 0.99% 5.53% 0.75% 20.31% 4.40% 6.14% 16.08%

STO 32.32 -0.34 -1.04% -0.03% 6.00% -0.74% 25.81% 14.57% 18.78% 15.84%

TOT 80.92 0.59 0.73% -0.65% 3.76% 4.62% 14.02% 9.78% 7.46% 13.24%

ECA 65.25 -0.18 -0.28% -3.95% -3.13% -7.70% 43.91% 12.40% 5.48% 24.98%

PBR 96.30 -0.25 -0.26% -4.45% -3.49% 2.77% 93.26% 62.42% 78.04% 104.55%

SU 95.76 -2.14 -2.19% -6.44% -4.02% -9.79% 29.56% 9.82% 10.03% 21.18%

IMO 49.03 -0.12 -0.24% -7.40% -6.16% -7.07% 37.49% 14.77% 4.05% 30.50%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

NUE 59.21 1.80 3.14% 11.23% 16.14% 2.24% 8.64% 14.13% -12.77% -1.07%

RTP 467.48 6.48 1.41% 7.21% 6.01% 29.60% 129.04% 76.81% 61.12% 117.85%

RIO 34.58 0.22 0.64% 6.20% 0.23% -5.08% 19.99% -27.91% -22.52% 24.57%

GGB 28.11 0.68 2.48% 4.58% -2.97% -7.26% 71.19% 22.64% 24.55% 78.48%

BHP 75.83 0.38 0.50% 4.13% 2.33% -8.01% 95.09% 22.68% 46.00% 83.03%

AA 36.37 -0.18 -0.49% 3.47% 0.11% -4.04% 24.00% 0.61% -11.81% 16.68%

MT 73.82 1.15 1.58% 3.32% 6.14% -1.98% 80.93% 14.54% 25.84% 79.13%

PKX 157.87 1.55 0.99% 2.86% 0.80% -4.89% 98.75% 6.60% 36.11% 100.19%

TS 47.18 0.19 0.40% 2.70% 0.43% -8.67% -2.76% 1.31% -1.50% 0.36%

TCK 38.21 2.33 6.49% 0.98% -8.74% -20.36% -44.82% -6.87% -8.13% -49.02%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABB 29.38 0.71 2.48% 8.21% 5.87% -1.34% 64.87% 22.16% 38.39% 80.47%

FDX 98.47 2.28 2.37% 5.20% -2.86% -2.71% -10.29% -9.64% -9.50% -14.69%

CAT 71.90 0.18 0.25% 4.76% 3.11% -1.92% 17.56% -3.70% -8.38% 15.91%

HON 56.62 1.74 3.17% 3.57% -0.94% -4.10% 25.54% 0.59% -1.92% 31.74%

BA 92.54 -0.67 -0.72% 3.35% 1.31% -4.20% 3.78% -4.45% -7.97% 4.53%

UTX 74.77 -0.67 -0.89% 1.78% 1.11% 0.07% 19.04% 1.26% 7.69% 15.87%

GE 38.29 0.15 0.39% 1.65% -0.05% -5.08% 0.84% -0.29% 1.48% 8.53%

MMM 83.26 -0.35 -0.42% 0.62% 4.53% -0.76% 6.39% -6.83% -5.31% 2.21%

ERJ 43.58 -0.25 -0.57% -1.51% -9.13% -8.62% 6.87% -0.91% -10.35% 4.66%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

JCP 44.12 -0.41 -0.92% 6.83% -0.47% -18.16% -43.48% -33.14% -45.24% -42.95%

BC 20.39 0.57 2.88% 5.87% -3.87% -6.98% -36.12% -18.05% -41.02% -37.01%

CCL 45.12 0.51 1.14% 5.59% 0.94% -3.59% -11.44% 0.27% -10.51% -7.90%

EBAY 33.53 -0.02 -0.06% 4.98% 4.36% -4.20% 11.14% -0.21% 0.93% 3.58%

DIS 33.15 0.34 1.04% 4.11% 2.31% -1.92% -3.07% -0.96% -7.69% 0.30%

WHR 80.96 1.61 2.03% 3.95% 3.33% 4.12% -4.37% -14.91% -27.60% -5.09%

NKE 65.65 0.94 1.45% 2.98% 4.12% 2.87% 34.45% 17.74% 17.80% 32.71%

TM 112.45 -0.21 -0.19% 2.79% 1.78% -1.75% -16.89% -0.74% -6.33% -6.33%

SBUX 23.39 0.35 1.52% 1.39% -2.95% -9.45% -33.65% -14.48% -18.50% -33.72%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABV 75.08 1.08 1.46% 8.67% 2.12% -7.09% 52.91% 11.36% 11.99% 62.83%

MO 77.56 1.58 2.08% 6.29% 7.32% 7.90% 19.47% 12.00% 8.49% 22.72%

WFMI 43.01 0.81 1.92% 5.55% -6.09% -8.90% -5.43% -2.58% 4.62% -11.86%

BUD 52.72 1.46 2.85% 5.04% 5.84% 4.58% 7.11% 8.93% 0.08% 10.97%

WMT 47.90 0.36 0.76% 4.75% 3.68% 8.79% 0.74% 10.57% 1.66% 3.90%

PEP 77.18 0.64 0.84% 2.21% 4.89% 6.62% 23.05% 13.73% 12.56% 24.54%

PG 74.00 -0.15 -0.20% 1.56% 3.02% 7.89% 14.66% 13.83% 15.90% 17.85%

DEO 90.58 -1.37 -1.49% 1.41% 1.86% 0.31% 13.89% 8.28% 6.46% 17.19%

KO 62.10 -0.69 -1.10% -0.32% 0.24% 1.97% 27.83% 16.29% 17.06% 32.61%

WAG 36.59 -0.70 -1.88% -7.90% -7.58% -6.25% -20.58% -18.00% -19.14% -9.63%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

BMY 29.63 0.23 0.78% 5.52% 6.77% 1.61% 12.32% 2.88% -1.63% 19.33%

GSK 52.68 0.46 0.88% 3.72% 6.90% 3.68% -2.10% 2.85% -0.08% -0.85%

PFE 23.76 0.16 0.68% 3.39% 2.02% -0.79% -9.62% -3.22% -13.32% -13.57%

AET 55.88 0.19 0.34% 3.21% 1.88% 1.56% 30.32% 10.72% 5.31% 35.27%

AMGN 55.25 -0.21 -0.38% 2.77% 0.84% -3.48% -19.23% 10.32% -0.02% -22.18%

DNA 76.25 0.01 0.01% 1.91% 2.31% 4.29% -6.78% 3.70% -3.16% -6.73%

UNH 55.00 0.24 0.44% 1.72% 3.73% 13.29% 4.62% 12.13% 0.79% 12.06%

JNJ 67.74 -0.66 -0.96% 1.29% 1.29% 4.76% 2.02% 9.97% 7.15% 2.78%

NVS 56.52 -0.86 -1.50% 0.96% 7.07% 6.90% -2.79% 8.21% 0.37% -3.24%

BMET 45.99 0.06 0.13% 0.24% 0.31% 0.48% 10.90% 1.05% 8.47% 41.68%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

MER 59.94 2.53 4.41% 11.95% 4.61% -3.62% -35.97% -16.96% -35.52% -31.44%

UBS 50.48 1.11 2.25% 11.58% 5.72% -0.53% -17.77% -2.09% -22.22% -16.17%

JPM 45.62 1.97 4.51% 8.75% 4.80% 2.93% -5.10% 3.75% -12.37% -1.43%

DB 131.75 1.25 0.96% 5.95% 7.09% 3.70% -2.65% 8.35% -13.25% 1.85%

MS 52.72 0.38 0.73% 5.67% -1.03% -15.54% -35.41% -12.37% -38.57% -30.78%

CS 60.32 0.04 0.07% 5.51% 0.12% -6.19% -13.96% -6.70% -19.65% -8.84%

C 33.30 1.01 3.13% 5.05% -3.70% -13.53% -39.73% -27.97% -39.67% -32.85%

GS 226.64 2.26 1.01% 4.69% -0.17% -5.65% 12.91% 32.24% -2.31% 16.34%

LEH 62.63 0.94 1.52% 2.91% -0.54% 3.52% -20.35% 16.48% -14.44% -14.99%

HBC 85.50 1.81 2.16% 0.90% -2.03% -10.49% -8.03% -4.03% -8.19% -8.06%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

INFY 42.15 0.91 2.21% 7.80% 2.21% -15.56% -24.49% -9.24% -14.47% -21.26%

INTC 26.08 -0.26 -0.99% 4.03% 2.15% -1.58% 28.16% 3.16% 18.12% 22.15%

SNDK 37.44 -0.66 -1.73% 3.68% 0.46% -14.70% -10.26% -31.50% -13.23% -15.68%

ADSK 47.09 -0.37 -0.78% 2.84% -0.78% -1.49% 16.10% 3.72% 4.57% 14.35%

CTSH 31.10 -0.47 -1.49% 2.10% 0.03% -21.54% -20.01% -13.54% -21.21% -23.74%

QCOM 40.78 -0.64 -1.55% 0.62% -0.07% -1.24% 8.86% 4.35% -4.76% 11.45%

ADBE 42.14 -0.61 -1.43% 0.55% 3.23% -10.19% 5.56% -0.19% -2.50% 5.01%

ORCL 20.18 -0.30 -1.46% -0.64% -1.18% -7.26% 15.25% -0.15% 3.91% 6.04%

SAP 51.22 -0.13 -0.25% -0.74% 1.15% -2.99% -3.72% -2.94% 8.15% -1.91%

CSCO 28.02 -0.13 -0.46% -2.34% -4.37% -12.93% 1.01% -10.85% 6.18% 4.24%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 3.05 2.85 3.10 3.77

6 Month 3.23 3.16 3.23 3.92

2 Year 3.01 3.04 3.07 3.94

3 Year 2.96 2.99 3.01 3.91

5 Year 3.39 3.40 3.41 4.16

10 Year 3.94 3.94 4.00 4.47

30 Year 4.38 4.34 4.42 4.74

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.19 3.16 3.22 3.36

2yr AAA 3.26 3.23 3.31 3.35

2yr A 3.38 3.36 3.43 3.37

5yr AAA 3.35 3.29 3.53 3.44

5yr AA 3.35 3.30 3.45 3.42

5yr A 3.46 3.40 3.64 3.61

10yr AAA 3.71 3.70 3.76 3.78

10yr AA 3.56 3.60 3.82 3.74

10yr A 3.93 3.93 3.99 4.01

20yr AAA 4.41 4.41 4.23 4.39

20yr AA 4.20 4.20 4.79 4.59

20yr A 4.83 4.83 4.77 4.40

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 4.22 4.25 4.37 4.73

2yr A 4.35 4.59 4.49 4.83

5yr AAA 4.53 4.54 4.54 4.91

5yr AA 4.70 4.76 4.78 5.13

5yr A 4.59 4.63 4.63 5.14

10yr AAA 5.03 5.06 5.24 5.34

10yr AA 5.32 5.43 5.46 5.63

10yr A 5.39 5.55 5.66 5.77

20yr AAA 5.65 5.57 5.72 5.76

20yr AA 5.75 5.68 5.91 5.94

20yr A 6.11 6.03 6.17 6.10

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

FRE 35.07 5.56 18.84% 32.49% -16.22% -29.05% -48.34% -41.62% -47.73% -47.78%

FNM 38.42 6.03 18.62% 19.32% -10.73% -29.50% -35.82% -39.40% -40.05% -32.63%

CFC 10.82 1.52 16.34% 12.12% -11.38% -25.02% -74.31% -44.91% <