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December 27, 2007
Daily Report for Thu, Dec 27, 2007
Markets Re-cap
The DJIA (+2) and Nasdaq Composite (+10.9) managed gains in thin trading. Particularly noteworthy was the plunging $USD and Treasury debt market and the power rally in oil and gold commodities. Among stocks in the US market, the focus has been on Retailers.
With oil prices skyrocketing and shopping malls not packing in consumers over Christmas, retail sales are down, hence rents paid to shopping mall holding companies are suffering and the REITs are down. Of course, with high Crude Oil prices, the cost of jet fuel is up and the price of airline shares down.
So, in yesterday’s abbreviated, low volume session, not much happened except generally prices were moderately higher, with Gold ($XAU +2.28 pct), Oil Services ($OSX +1.45 pct), Oil ($XOI +1.06 pct) and Commodities ($CRX +1.26 pct) were the leaders, but the Airlines ($XAL -2.05 pct), REITs ($DJR -1.74 pct) and Retailers ($RLX -1.24 pct) held the market in check.
Many of the big name Retailers were very soft on Boxing Day, the day after Christmas. Shares of Guess? (GES -4.37 pct), The Buckle (BKE -6.30 pct), The Gap (GPS -2.51 pct), and Limited Brands (LTD -2.42 pct) were weak. The dollar stores, Family Dollar Stores (FDO -3.90 pct), Dollar Tree (DLTR -2.16 pct), Fred’s (FRED -1.55 pct), 99 Cents Only (NDN -2.74 pct), and department stores, Dillards (DDS -5.47 pct), Macy’s (M -3.92 pct), JC Penny (JCP -3.05 pct), Nordstrom (JWN -2.95 pct), Saks (SKS -2.95 pct) and The Bon-Ton Stores (BONT -9.26 pct) also underperformed. Kohl's (KSS -2.48 pct) was down. The big box discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT -0.74 pct, Target (TGT -2.50 pct) and Sears/KMart (SHLD -1.60 pct) were also down and little box retailer RadioShack (RSH -3.67 pct) was hit.
(Cara 100) Silver Wheaton (SLW + 8.0 pct) has been on a moonshot. In four days, from a low of 14.17 on Dec 20 to yesterday's high of 17.84, closing at 17.68), that is a +25 pct move. When you are on vacation, you usually miss these kinds of moves. Actually, the Silver Wheaton move from the 20th is a combination of much higher silver prices and a well-timed agreement to buy between 45 pct and 90 pct of the life-of-mine silver to be produced by the Rosemont Copper Project of Augusta Resources (AMEX and TSX: AZC)
Elsewhere, the China-play, Ag-play and Energy-play rewarded traders who loved a good Christmas story.
Comments & Outlook
There are so many stories in the market these days; you don’t know who or what to believe. When in doubt, watch the money flow. Yesterday, the large majority of US Retailers were hammered even though Financial Entertainment TV was telling us that this was an outstanding year for retailers… and if the weather hadn’t been so bad (yada, yada) the season would have set records.
Traders in the futures pits were telling us that with supply concerns in the US, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) would rally well through $100/barrel. So why was European Brent just as high?
What this market is telling us is that oil producers must increase the price to cover cost inflation, which is the outcome of a weak $USD policy. So, whenever the $USD plunges as it did early yesterday, the price of Oil and Gold zoom.
Who recalls the $51 oil price back in January?
Yes, for the moment, I have been wrong on the prices of the $USD-denominated commodities because I have anticipated that the US authorities would end the cheap dollar nonsense before inflation breaks the backs of the average wage-earner.
Herein lies the lesson that there is often a big difference between what you think ought to be happening and what actually is happening in markets. It pays to focus on price and not words and opinions.
Today, the few traders around will focus on two key US economic reports, Durable Goods (8:30am ET) and Consumer Confidence (10:00am ET). Like a Limbo contest, the question is ‘How low can they go?’
I always love the media spin, but the data and the charts tell the real story.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| SLW | 17.680 | +1.310 | +8 | 2.2M |
| IBN | 63.340 | +2.060 | +3.4 | 927.7K |
| MICC | 124.340 | +3.540 | +2.9 | 361K |
| CCJ | 40.700 | +0.980 | +2.5 | 1.4M |
| GRMN | 103.320 | +2.450 | +2.4 | 1.8M |
| GFI | 14.420 | +0.310 | +2.2 | 5.9M |
| BHP | 72.370 | +1.420 | +2 | 1.9M |
| NUE | 61.760 | +1.130 | +1.9 | 3.4M |
| OXPS | 33.900 | +0.590 | +1.8 | 1.4M |
| BBD | 32.720 | +0.530 | +1.6 | 1.9M |
| ERJ | 47.560 | +0.720 | +1.5 | 556.9K |
| TM | 108.870 | +1.620 | +1.5 | 449.7K |
| TCK | 37.270 | +0.550 | +1.5 | 473.3K |
| HDB | 134.320 | +1.920 | +1.5 | 299.6K |
| GOOG | 710.840 | +10.110 | +1.4 | 2.5M |
| IBKR | 33.010 | +0.450 | +1.4 | 274K |
| CEO | 169.470 | +2.250 | +1.3 | 158K |
| ATVI | 29.680 | +0.380 | +1.3 | 2.4M |
| PTR | 184.030 | +2.310 | +1.3 | 322.4K |
| ABB | 28.760 | +0.360 | +1.3 | 2.7M |
| XOM | 94.810 | +1.150 | +1.2 | 15.3M |
| TOT | 81.840 | +0.910 | +1.1 | 877.8K |
| RIO | 34.260 | +0.380 | +1.1 | 8.2M |
| GS | 216.690 | +2.370 | +1.1 | 4.3M |
| ERTS | 60.020 | +0.630 | +1.1 | 1.7M |
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| JCP | 44.450 | -1.400 | -3.1 | 2.2M |
| MCO | 36.730 | -1.000 | -2.7 | 2.7M |
| TGT | 51.160 | -1.310 | -2.5 | 9.7M |
| KSS | 45.250 | -1.150 | -2.5 | 3.2M |
| TGP | 30.050 | -0.730 | -2.4 | 69.6K |
| SBUX | 20.820 | -0.400 | -1.9 | 5.5M |
| BBBY | 29.430 | -0.530 | -1.8 | 2.4M |
| DIS | 32.820 | -0.420 | -1.3 | 5.1M |
| NKE | 66.080 | -0.800 | -1.2 | 1.9M |
| CSCO | 28.380 | -0.340 | -1.2 | 35.5M |
| BC | 17.900 | -0.190 | -1.1 | 742.1K |
| WAG | 38.620 | -0.400 | -1 | 3.8M |
| MFC | 40.660 | -0.410 | -1 | 383.3K |
| BDK | 71.160 | -0.650 | -0.9 | 523.5K |
| CCL | 45.410 | -0.390 | -0.9 | 1.4M |
| WMT | 48.380 | -0.360 | -0.7 | 9.3M |
| SNDK | 35.100 | -0.260 | -0.7 | 4.9M |
| MU | 7.500 | -0.050 | -0.7 | 9.7M |
| DELL | 24.990 | -0.160 | -0.6 | 15M |
| RY | 50.810 | -0.320 | -0.6 | 177.9K |
| LEH | 65.280 | -0.370 | -0.6 | 5.7M |
| DOW | 40.920 | -0.200 | -0.5 | 4.3M |
| KB | 77.480 | -0.370 | -0.5 | 480.2K |
| UTX | 77.820 | -0.360 | -0.5 | 2.5M |
| JNJ | 67.560 | -0.310 | -0.5 | 6.4M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| OXPS | 34.650 | 33.900 | +0.590 | +1.77 | 1.39M |
| ATVI | 29.810 | 29.680 | +0.380 | +1.30 | 2.40M |
| ORCL | 23.001 | 23.000 | +0.240 | +1.05 | 24.29M |
| MBT | 100.830 | 99.870 | +0.420 | +0.42 | 479.70K |
| TT | 46.650 | 46.340 | -0.070 | -0.15 | 1.13M |
| VIP | 45.480 | 44.910 | -0.070 | -0.16 | 2.70M |
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| NONE FOUND. | |||||
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| TGP | 30.050 | -2.4 | 69.6K | +27 |
| OXPS | 33.900 | +1.8 | 1.4M | +25 |
|
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEF | 98.66 | 96.59 | 62.21 | 54.33 | |
| VIP | 44.91 | 96.52 | 85.96 | 77.49 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| KO | 63.01 | 94.33 | 74.23 | 51.87 | Sell alert (trig. 8 days ago [on 2007-12-14 at $63.81, -1.25% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| MBT | 99.87 | 93.81 | 80.02 | 68.41 | |
| PBR | 116.91 | 93.04 | 82.61 | 71.51 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| HDB | 134.32 | 91.71 | 63.61 | 59.80 | |
| LYO | 47.97 | 90.01 | 81.68 | 75.51 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| COST | 70.59 | 90.00 | 71.85 | 66.81 | |
| NOK | 38.82 | 89.22 | 59.84 | 58.33 | |
| VCP | 30.44 | 88.69 | 53.71 | 39.07 | |
| RIMM | 118.94 | 86.62 | 62.58 | 72.99 | |
| MICC | 124.34 | 86.05 | 67.45 | 65.79 | |
| GOOG | 710.84 | 86.04 | 67.04 | 67.53 | |
| PG | 74.04 | 84.60 | 73.83 | 58.33 | |
| RIO | 34.26 | 84.33 | 56.64 | 58.76 | |
| IMO | 54.86 | 81.64 | 68.65 | 74.68 | |
| ABB | 28.76 | 81.37 | 57.14 | 61.02 | |
| EXC | 81.86 | 81.31 | 54.59 | 40.59 | |
| OXPS | 33.90 | 79.58 | 88.08 | 83.29 | Distribution Zone (for 4 days) |
| ECA | 69.17 | 79.03 | 65.99 | 69.26 | |
| SLW | 17.68 | 78.15 | 68.21 | 71.01 | |
| IBN | 63.34 | 77.76 | 61.32 | 63.15 | |
| NKE | 66.08 | 77.65 | 68.73 | 59.23 | |
| AET | 58.82 | 77.54 | 81.18 | 65.07 | |
| ATVI | 29.68 | 76.21 | 83.15 | 87.91 | Distribution Zone (for 4 days) |
| SU | 108.01 | 75.89 | 71.60 | 77.43 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| TT | 46.34 | 75.47 | 77.77 | 88.02 | Distribution Zone (for 7 days) |
| CHL | 91.45 | 74.82 | 61.34 | 61.15 | |
| CEO | 169.47 | 74.81 | 52.62 | 57.33 | |
| XOM | 94.81 | 74.79 | 68.33 | 73.90 | |
| INTC | 27.45 | 74.33 | 64.67 | 65.44 | |
| CVX | 94.84 | 74.02 | 69.61 | 71.59 | |
| GGB | 29.91 | 73.48 | 59.72 | 66.65 | |
| ORCL | 23.00 | 72.50 | 68.96 | 73.26 | Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2007-12-24 at $22.76, +1.05% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| BBD | 32.72 | 72.47 | 59.27 | 60.51 | |
| TOT | 81.84 | 71.76 | 62.27 | 62.72 | |
| WBK | 122.58 | 71.54 | 49.86 | 49.68 | |
| CHA | 76.39 | 70.18 | 54.63 | 53.95 | |
| JNJ | 67.56 | 66.91 | 70.19 | 47.36 | |
| ERTS | 60.02 | 66.54 | 68.83 | 74.75 | |
| CHRW | 54.49 | 59.84 | 66.37 | 73.59 | |
| INFY | 46.64 | 49.48 | 55.44 | 73.08 | |
| CTSH | 35.75 | 46.97 | 53.31 | 73.34 | |
| LLTC | 32.38 | 46.61 | 53.62 | 78.38 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 17.90 | 14.81 | 23.05 | 29.39 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| MU | 7.50 | 17.15 | 22.47 | 23.31 | Accumulation Zone (for 3 days) |
| KSS | 45.25 | 18.51 | 25.92 | 30.89 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2007-12-21 at $46.16, -1.97% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| SBUX | 20.82 | 19.53 | 14.03 | 41.29 | Buy alert (trig. 4 days ago [on 2007-12-20 at $20.53, +1.41% chg], after a 5 day AZ) |
| BBBY | 29.43 | 20.00 | 29.81 | 40.28 | Buy alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2007-12-17 at $29.36, +0.24% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| JCP | 44.45 | 21.70 | 29.81 | 49.35 | |
| MCO | 36.73 | 23.31 | 31.70 | 37.73 | |
| TGT | 51.16 | 25.13 | 29.67 | 38.82 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2007-12-21 at $50.68, +0.95% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| UBS | 45.66 | 27.69 | 31.11 | 36.34 | |
| DNA | 68.06 | 30.13 | 24.70 | 39.07 | |
| SNDK | 35.10 | 33.60 | 23.90 | 30.99 | |
| BDK | 71.16 | 34.05 | 22.98 | 30.48 | Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2007-12-21 at $70.91, +0.35% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| GFI | 14.42 | 36.42 | 24.25 | 41.33 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 3.19 | 3.15 | 2.76 | 2.99 |
| 6 Month | 3.42 | 3.40 | 3.19 | 3.14 |
| 2 Year | 3.29 | 3.24 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| 3 Year | 3.24 | 3.18 | 3.05 | 2.81 |
| 5 Year | 3.71 | 3.63 | 3.43 | 3.20 |
| 10 Year | 4.28 | 4.21 | 4.03 | 3.83 |
| 30 Year | 4.67 | 4.62 | 4.45 | 4.29 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.08 | 3.00 | 3.04 | 3.15 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.11 | 3.10 | 3.07 | 3.22 |
| 2yr A | 3.59 | 3.59 | 3.56 | 3.34 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.35 | 3.34 | 3.32 | 3.29 |
| 5yr AA | 3.38 | 3.36 | 3.27 | 3.24 |
| 5yr A | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.53 | 3.40 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.87 | 3.85 | 3.78 | 3.78 |
| 10yr AA | 3.46 | 3.44 | 3.48 | 3.75 |
| 10yr A | 4.10 | 4.08 | 4.01 | 4.01 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.42 | 4.39 | 4.40 | 4.39 |
| 20yr AA | 4.56 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.79 |
| 20yr A | 4.65 | 4.65 | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.50 | 4.47 | 4.37 | 4.05 |
| 2yr A | 4.74 | 4.58 | 4.51 | 4.30 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.86 | 4.75 | 4.59 | 4.38 |
| 5yr AA | 5.16 | 5.04 | 4.91 | 4.61 |
| 5yr A | 5.22 | 4.91 | 4.87 | 4.42 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.43 | 5.20 | 5.14 | 4.91 |
| 10yr AA | 5.73 | 5.46 | 5.43 | 5.36 |
| 10yr A | 5.95 | 5.74 | 5.79 | 5.52 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.47 | 5.53 | 5.25 | 5.40 |
| 20yr AA | 5.95 | 5.93 | 5.70 | 5.59 |
| 20yr A | 6.46 | 6.29 | 6.23 | 5.86 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap-up: I'm linking the Discourse to the Daily Report until January 2nd. This is slower to download and harder on the server, but so many of you are on vacation, I don't think it will be a problem.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 27, 2007 07:36:04 AM | Category: Daily Report
Discourse
Bill,
I think you are right on the Crude comments. This time I will probably lose on my oil puts for May. This should be the weakest time for oil and we are at 96.35. We are going higher.
Posted by: stktrader
at
December 27, 2007 9:23 AM [link]
Season Greetings.
Several Cara 100 components have received target price haircuts:
Piper Jaffray lowers:
TGT - $55 to $53
KSS - $66 to $56
JCP - $63 to $58
also Jefferies & Co. lowers:
YHOO - $35 to $32
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
December 27, 2007 9:24 AM [link]
What's up Doc!
Gold has been trading with the stock market. IMO, if the stock market falls and gold decouples and rises, that will be a tell. I have stated here that I took some gains off the table in gold due the fact that gold may get pulled down with the stock market on trading concerns only, the fundamentals haven't changed. Then, when gold bottoms off that move, that will be the next great buy. If the breakout above the trendline is confirmed with another higher close today, that may be telling us that gold is sniffing out something that we don't know yet, or it may simply be a short term rally due to the rally in stocks. It's possible that we won't see a '7' handle again.
So doc, would you care to give us the upside price target for either gold or gld should the symmetrical triangle be confirmed? Anyone else care to give us that calculation? (this is a real time learning experience/lesson that is worth the time spent).
Posted by: g034
at
December 27, 2007 9:26 AM [link]
g034:
Am I remembering correctly from one of your posts a few days ago?
(Top of Triangle-Bottom of Triangle)+ Top
848-773=75+848=923
Posted by: RobBoss
at
December 27, 2007 9:46 AM [link]
FXP- partial sales at 72.60..
NOT.V- adding at 4...
UNG- adding to january calls/opening a few february calls...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 9:48 AM [link]
Scaling into CVP (and its 15% annual divy, paid monthly)@ $10.00, in my Roth.
Anyone looking for high monthly income may want to do some DD on this one. It appears to be dirt cheap.
Regards
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
December 27, 2007 9:49 AM [link]
GSS- opening a position at 3.23...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 9:52 AM [link]
BH, Ran a four year chart (all they have) on CVP and you need to see the cliff on that chart.
You are also at 52 wk low....
Be careful!
Posted by: Craig
at
December 27, 2007 10:17 AM [link]
Rob - close, but you add to the breakout point of the triangle (though I like your calculation better ;-0)
long gold
Posted by: g034
at
December 27, 2007 10:25 AM [link]
Thanks, Craig.
BlackRock recently sold huge blocks of this, driving the price down.
The underlying assets of the company are probably worth more than the market cap at this point.
I've been in and out of CVP many times and have seen this sort of price action before. One of these days I may get caught with my pants down.
Appreciate the advice.
Regards
Posted by: Bull Hunter
at
December 27, 2007 10:26 AM [link]
FWIW, pm's and energy have shown surprising strength, so is this just a story or is it a message? I think it's a message about 1)inflation and 2)the outlook for energy. I'm sure it is frustrating for people who have been waiting to hop on the bandwagon. But there is a danger in chasing prices higher, so the only real alternative is to have been in them and been buying and holding (unless you are an adept trader, which I am not). The next alternative is to wait until they get hammered again, which they will, faster than you can say, "down twenty percent." Another alternative, which I prefer, is to buy on a regular basis, but buy more when they are on sale. This method has served me well over the last few years. I started doing it only as an inflation hedge and a hedge against possible higher energy prices from peak oil. If you think we are going to have the same problems going forward, then it makes it easy to take the long view and not be so befuddled by daily moves. That's my take on it--it's more a hedging view because of the impact that inflation and energy prices have on my daily life, i.e., I have to work more and have less money because of them. But the sectors take some patience because they can be so volatile and can go into long sideways consolidations. So those moves have to be planned for, whether that means deciding to wait it out or trade in and out. That's why, even though people I know will agree with the basic geologic and economic premises, they are too squeamish to buy these sectors. I can't seem to convince anyone to buy even though they think they should.
Denny
Posted by: Denny
at
December 27, 2007 10:31 AM [link]
Good morning from a perfect day for the beach in Cape Town.
True to form, just as traders were bargaining on a quiet Christmas period, gold again startled with a $15 jump, taking the price well clear of the $800-level. Interestingly, gold has never in its history recorded a month-end price above $800. It would seem that gold bulls may very well have reason next week to toast bullion saying good-bye to 2007 having achieved the $800 month-end milestone.
I have just posted a new blog article entitled "Gold bullion - a belated Christmas gift" Here is the link to the story: http://tinyurl.com/2vp6fe
Pakistan's Bhutto assassinated at rally:
news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071227/ap_on_re_as/pakistan
Posted by: sergio
at
December 27, 2007 11:15 AM [link]
FXP- taking a little more off at 73.53...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 11:17 AM [link]
My take on the rally in gold and oil is that it is mostly $USD weakness related, and the reason for that has a lot to do with the Chinese Yuan, which is strengthening as the Chinese authorities are doing what they can to stifle price inflation in that country.
My reasoning is that Platinum and Palladium were moving higher, but gold was not keeping pace. For the past month, I anticipated that these precious metals would start to sell off, but the upward pressure on oil and gold/silver as well as plat/pall is now unrelenting.
The assassination of the former Pakistan Prime Minister did cause a $5 bump in gold, which later came off. This was, although unfortunate for world peace, not an event that would sustain higher gold/oil prices.
However, as China continues to step up its inflation fight, such as higher reserve requirements at the banks, the Yuan will get stronger and the $USD weaker. Such a result will enable the Chinese authorities to keep interest rates from zooming, but it will also make it harder for the US consumer to fight inflation with higher oil and other imported commodities.
Regarding the gold price, China now has control or at least a large measure of it. The domestic market price of precious metals in China will remain affordable and active whereas Americans will increasingly be paying through the nose.
Since nobody knows how far the Chinese authorities are prepared to go with respect to a strong Yuan policy, the future gold price in $USD is an unknown.
The only thing we know is that a US foreign policy that requires so much capital linked to a fiscal system that high tax bracket friendly has led to this situation. It is a cruel joke on the average working American that low taxes will cause wealthy Americans to put more capital back into America. It is a fact that most Americans live, work, eat and invest whatever is left in America. The wealthy have second homes and multiple annual vacations abroad, and they place their funds with wealth managers who invest abroad where the best opportunities lie.
From where I sit, I think America's leaders are milking the average American. But at the end of the day, there is only so much the people can take in terms of costs of fuel, etc..
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
December 27, 2007 12:17 PM [link]
FXP- last of it off the tablet at 74.45...may well keep going, but i'm playing the swings as best i can...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 12:26 PM [link]
Help!
Can someone please repost the link to the reboot solution for windows which removes any nasty intrusions. Thanks in advance, much appreciated!
Posted by: yaba
at
December 27, 2007 12:48 PM [link]
hmmm...will the Hong Kong market close higher or lower tonight based on todays news.....? or will a bounce off the 50ma support ?
Posted by: EEMTRADER
at
December 27, 2007 12:51 PM [link]
Nice recovery in MacDonald Mines (BMK) today, up 40% on 3.4 million shares.
Posted by: Fred
at
December 27, 2007 12:54 PM [link]
Right on, Bill. This cow is about milked dry and a lot of people I know have very sore teats.
And then what's this I see on the front of the NY Times today? An article about a ruling which says employers can cut health benefits completely if you are 65 and eligible for Medicare. I don't know if this is "bad" or "good" in the long run, but I love the spin put on it: “This rule will help employers continue to voluntarily provide and maintain these critically important health benefits.â€
The benefits that will be cut--love that logic.
U.S. Ruling Backs Benefit Cut at 65 in Retiree Plans
The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission said Wednesday that employers could reduce or eliminate health benefits for retirees when they turn 65 and become eligible for Medicare.
The policy, set forth in a new regulation, allows employers to establish two classes of retirees, with more comprehensive benefits for those under 65 and more limited benefits — or none at all — for those older.
More than 10 million retirees rely on employer-sponsored health plans as a primary source of coverage or as a supplement to Medicare, and Naomi C. Earp, the commission’s chairwoman, said, “This rule will help employers continue to voluntarily provide and maintain these critically important health benefits.â€
Posted by: Denny
at
December 27, 2007 1:00 PM [link]
Yaba
Look into the windows restore option, pick a restore date prior to when the problems started to happen.
Not sure what your problem is, but this may help.
Posted by: Quasi
at
December 27, 2007 1:11 PM [link]
Here's an article about Sallie Mae that shows how they totally underestimated risk.
My favorite quote from the article:
Sallie Mae's chief executive, Albert Lord, was widely criticized last week after a contentious conference call in which he dismissed several analysts' questions and ended the call with an expletive.
How funny. All the options, perks, and bonuses weren't enough to keep this CEO cheery. Too bad he forgot that risk existed.
I'll bet most of us would be 10X the CEO most of these shells of men are nowadays.
I can balance my accounts. I can be honest. And I never forgot that risk exists. Sounds like I'm qualified.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
December 27, 2007 1:40 PM [link]
isaiah-unloading the UNG i bought this morning...keeping the rest
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 2:01 PM [link]
2nd
I'm still stuck at 37.59.
Where is "Jack Frost" when you need him?
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
December 27, 2007 2:05 PM [link]
UNG has just gone vertical
Posted by: OldGoat
at
December 27, 2007 2:07 PM [link]
A gold FYI
According to the World Gold Council's Official Gold Holdings..
GLD [EFT]is ranked #8
1.USA
2.Germany
3.IMF
4.France
5.Italy
6.Switzerland
7.Japan
8.GLD [ETF]
9.Netherlands
10.ECB
11.China
....
....
....
100.Kaimu
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
December 27, 2007 2:12 PM [link]
For those who have been on extended vacation:
-Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) may need to slash its dividend 40 percent to preserve capital, and with Merrill Lynch & Co
may write off $33.6 billion of debt this quarter as the global credit crunch deepens, a Goldman Sachs & Co analyst said.
-Citigroup, Merrill and JPMorgan to write off a respective $18.7 billion, $11.5 billion and $3.4 billion for collateralized debt obligations this quarter, up from a respective $11 billion, $6 billion and $1.7 billion.
-after the projected write-downs, Citigroup would still be exposed to $24.5 billion of CDOs, Merrill $7.7 billion and JPMorgan $5 billion.
-Financial companies including Bank of America Corp and Switzerland's UBS AG have already announced more than $70 billion of write-offs tied to the credit crisis.
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
December 27, 2007 2:21 PM [link]
2nd_ave:
I am wondering, why were you taking some FXP off the table at 72 and 73, given that this is the first real sign of market weakness after a week-long rally? I also bought some FXP yesterday, feeling that the rally has ran out of steam. However, I am thinking of holding it at least until tomorrow, since the "correction" from the recent rally should be of a similar proportion to the rally itself (and maybe even greater, if we are in a bear market), and a single 100 pt drop in DOW won't do it. Are you assuming that we are still in a period of market strength? Do you think this is just a one-day drop and the market will resume its climb tomorrow until early January?
Thanks...
Posted by: David
at
December 27, 2007 2:50 PM [link]
Denny,
Charts at Bespoke are showing energy at near extreme over-bought levels, which they define as 2 std deviations from the 50-day Moving Ave.
Posted by: TimG
at
December 27, 2007 2:55 PM [link]
David...
As Bill Has stated We need to Dance...
2nd_ave...Is just doing the Mamba while some of us are doing the 2 step..:^)
Not speaking for 2nd, but this market can turn on a dime, and 2nd's time horizon is usually shorter than most...
He entered the position at a lower level and was happy to take some profits off the table...
David- at this point, there is absolutely no way to predict short-term direction, so simply taking profits when i have them...still think fund managers have incentive to run the market up anytime between now and monday's close, so playing it safe->longer term, i think you'll be quite happy having that FXP in your portfolio (and it looks like you picked it up at a good price)...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 3:13 PM [link]
Thanks for the link Tim, that's very interesting. That tells you that when it gives, it could be in a big way--and I think Big BC has been calling for the broad market to give way soon, if I'm not mistaken, and then energy might fall even harder, as it is wont to do. So, what with the energy supply picture as constrained as it is, it might make sense to pick up some deals at that point. no? The supply picture seem so precarious that I don't see how energy companies could not do well going forward. And many are still reasonably valued and will do well even if oil itself falls. So I'm very bullish on energy long term, but short term...?
Posted by: Denny
at
December 27, 2007 3:27 PM [link]
Denny
You may find this article intersting about the future of energy [oil].
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
December 27, 2007 3:35 PM [link]
David
FXP is closing strong.
Wonder how the Asian markets will react to the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. This could send FXP higher tomorrow.
I am holding my FXP.
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
December 27, 2007 3:44 PM [link]
thx for the breakdown Bill, and others for their usual well worded analysis.
Richard Russell's latest piece on gold, right along the lines of what the TA folks were speaking to:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell122707.html
Posted by: dr.cosa
at
December 27, 2007 3:53 PM [link]
b-guy -- Some of us do what I used to call the "lumbar shuffle" after my back surgeries....
Shuffled my way into an MGPI short and an SDS long earlier today, using my typical EMA(25), SMA(50), SMA(100) 10-minute charts. Happy with both at the moment. Stops & targets in place. Nothing to do but sit back and (here's the hard part) WAIT.
"I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, "Well, you know this is a bull market!" he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
"It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance. The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."
-- Jesse Livermore
Posted by: OldGoat
at
December 27, 2007 4:00 PM [link]
It's been a miserable year and BMK gave me my first market smile in several months. I unloaded a truckload today at 69 cents for a sweet gain. Now, I'm back to a full weighting.
Posted by: Fred
at
December 27, 2007 4:05 PM [link]
So, was yesterday the lower high and now we're headed to the lower low? Or maybe we have to take market action with a grain of salt this week because of most traders being on vacation. The four horsemen are either up or only marginally down today. I just don't know what to make of trading this week.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
December 27, 2007 4:06 PM [link]
OldGoat,
That Jesse Livermore quote could be describing me perfectly. I always seem to buy to early/late or sell to early/late. If I would just sit tight and let it ride, I would do much better. I am getting more patient though and hopefully I'll start making some real money in 08.
Rob.
Posted by: Finger Lakes
at
December 27, 2007 4:11 PM [link]
FXI selling off after hours...think hong Kong will close below 3% tonight?
Posted by: EEMTRADER
at
December 27, 2007 4:18 PM [link]
I guess Richard Russell has been following the comments here ;-)
Posted by: g034
at
December 27, 2007 4:43 PM [link]
Quasi, thanks for the info it resolved it for now. I removed Norton and have only the MS firewall enabled. I do not want any anti virus programs on my computer. In response to Bill's computer troubles, someone had posted a link to a site that offers a program that restores the settings automatically everytime you turn off the computer thus purging any viruses, malware etc. I have scrolled through this blog back to May to try and find it. A mind numbing exercise to say the least.
Otherwise it has been a great day lots of green on my screen! Cheers
Posted by: yaba
at
December 27, 2007 5:08 PM [link]
Yaba, I wouldn't run a MS machine without any AV software. You're asking for trouble doing that.
What specific problem were you having that made you uninstall it?
Posted by: Zenob
at
December 27, 2007 5:47 PM [link]
Yaba,
I think you might be talking about DeepFreeze by Faronics. I've used it for a long time as I also dislike running AV software, and it has served me well for over 5 years.
Posted by: proudPapa
at
December 27, 2007 6:01 PM [link]
Yaba,
Here is one of the suggestions from that time period, maybe the one you are looking for. Of course, Zenob is on the case now and I think he really knows this stuff.
Bill,
I have worked with Deepfreeze before. It is an extremely powerful tool. That said here's the basics for how it works:
Deepfreeze software locks your hard drive from any permanent changes being made. So, when Deepfreeze is locked, you can make any changes: you can download spyware/virus/worms etc and delete any files it doesn't matter. As soon as you reboot it is back to EXACTLY how you had it before. If you want to make a permanent change you reboot and tell deepfreeze to unlock your hard drive. You make the changes, then reboot and lock your hard drive. It's really simple once you get the hang of it.
It is possible to setup deep freeze to leave one directory unlocked always. Like if you want to be able to store files in your 'My Documents' when everything else is locked.
-William
proudPapa,
Thank you!
Posted by: yaba
at
December 27, 2007 6:05 PM [link]
Daughter of tragedy
By Kamran Rehmat in Pakistan
Bhutto may have been the first woman prime minister of a Muslim country but was twice ousted as premier on corruption charges, which she fought for the rest of her political life.
Ironically, it was only recently that corruption cases against her were "washed" clean courtesy of a controversial ordinance passed by Musharraf on the premise of national reconciliation but effectively seen as a means to win her support for his continued stay in power.
Regardless of what modus operandi appealed to her - and she took many that surprised even her family not to mention, her political adversaries - Bhutto remained a force to reckon with right until the end.
In her death, Pakistan may have lost its most potent political player, who remained at least for its vast moderate and secular population, their best hope.
Given the vitiated international climate vis-a-vis the war-on-terror for Islamabad, deep polarisation within the country and the institutional instability, her loss is colossal not just for Pakistan but for the rest of the world as well.
Posted by: moneygenie
at
December 27, 2007 6:37 PM [link]
geckojb
Last night you posted this comment.
"I just want to add that I closed out my SOLF trade today for a 42% gain in 3 trading days. It was my most profitable trade of the year. I set trailing stops along the way and it triggered early this morn. The stock closed below my stop at the close. I learned the art of trailing stops right here in this forum."
Q: I'm curious on your trailing stop, what % or
$ amount did you set to trail by?
Posted by: Isaiah64v4
at
December 27, 2007 6:52 PM [link]
"It would seem that gold bulls may very well have reason next week to toast bullion saying good-bye to 2007 having achieved the $800 month-end milestone."
Posted by: prieur [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 27, 2007 10:45 AM
either way, i'll be toasting sharkie for having made the '800' call way back when...;)
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 7:10 PM [link]
geckojb- congrats on the SOLF trade...
Posted by: 2nd_ave
at
December 27, 2007 7:15 PM [link]
Bill,
You are never wrong when you have the depth of conviction to state your beliefs and analysis in public and the courageous heart to accept and learn from the outcome. I believe you know that already. It is what draws me to your blog everyday. Your sharp mind and big heart. Cheers
Zenob,
I am not very computer literate so I was looking for a simple solution, I could not even begin to describe what the problem was, but my techie friend solved it. Then I decided to uninstall it all. Deepfreeze seems to offer a method of dealing with viruses which is more akin to my character. I will try it and see how it goes. I am clearly in a "they make you sick and they make you better" frame of mind. I have an aversion to the whole anti virus business. Much like the pharmaceuticals piling on, one antibiotic after another, instead of finding the true cause and cure of disease. Anyway, I am babbling a little bit now... thanks for all your responses. Much appreciated.
Posted by: yaba
at
December 27, 2007 10:56 PM [link]
Isaiah64v4: With SOLF I knew I was riding a wild animal and usual rules of 10-12% stops were thrown out. I do not look at 5 minute charts to find trends as I am just learning and feel more comfortable with weekly, monthly and longer term trends. Point is after I recognized the bull pennant I bought it after it broke out. After that since I don't follow (yet) shorter time charts I used common sense to keep what was mince. Really though, once the trade moved up 8 points over cost I set stops a point below it, the next day it went up a few more buck I moved up my stop. I wish I could show you some fancy chart with lines and squggly Q's but in the end it was my head.
I have learned the hard lesson of not trying to get too greedy. That has presented problems for me in the past.
Posted by: geckojb
at
December 27, 2007 11:13 PM [link]
Hi,
Re Gold: actually what I am thinking here is that the price of gold has been related to liquidity excess / shortage by financial institutions.
Let me be clearer: whenever we see liquidation of assets going on, gold price falls along with all other asset classes. Whenever liquidity issues are more or less reduced, gold rises.
That is why, IMO, there seems to be no real rationale in gold trading these days.
Then what next?
- Gold will rise untill mid January, as global banks are awash with liquidity.
But,
- It should not breakout over the all time maximum of 850 USD, so there really is little upside here.
SO?
As liquidity issues sink in again, gold will fall, and go on falling untill the system as a whole stops deleveraging (deflating).
I am looking for gold at aroung 650, but could be lower.
If, as and when that happens, AND, if signs around suggest that the reflation has finally started, then gold bets a re surefire.
For the time being, keep tight stops and low values at risk.
Cheers from a sunny cold European morning.
Posted by: maromatics
at
December 28, 2007 5:51 AM [link]
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hope the holidays were good and continue to be good for everyone,
back at work this morning to an office w/
only %10 of the staff, so its nice and quiet,
and im quietly enjoying gold's moves the past few days, wondering if this is a head fake, or the start of another upleg.
of particular significange at least to me is gold's upward move in the loonie and the euro.
if the mining shares get back on the horse, im wondering if Jim Sinclair's prediction that "this is it" may be coming true sooner than later.
Bill if you are still on the board this morning, I would appreciate any comments you have about the idea that one big wash out for gold is still in the books before we look to load up again. is there a price point where gold can pass that would nullify this?
thx and happy holidays.
Posted by: dr.cosa
at
December 27, 2007 8:56 AM [link]