« Cara Trading Advisors Logo | Main | Week in Review #51 (2007-12-23) »
December 22, 2007
Daily Report for Sat, Dec 22, 2007
Best wishes for peace, joy, prosperity and love.
Preceding today’s Daily Report, I wish to extend my heartfelt wishes to members of the Cara community in over 100 countries for a festive holiday season. Working together, anything is possible.
May peace, joy, prosperity and love be yours today and throughout the New Year.
Beannachtai na Nollag agus na hAthbhliana (Gaelic)Boas Festas E Feliz Ano Novo (Or) Feliz Natal E Um Prospero Ano Novo. (Portuguese)
Boldog Karacsonyl es Ujevl Unnepeket (Hungarian)
Buone Feste Natalizie Buon Natale e Felice Anno Nuovo (Italian)
Cestitamo Bozic (Yugoslavian)
Chung Mung Giang Sinh (Vietnamese)
Felices Pasquas Y felices ano Nuevo (Argentine)
Feliz Navidad y prospero Ano Nuevo (Spanish)
Frohliche Weihnachten und ein Glueckliches Neues Jahr (German)
Gajan Kristnaskon (Esperanto)
Gezuar Krishtlindjet! (Albanian)
Glædelig Jul Gledlig jol og Nyar (Icelandic, Danish)
God Jul and (Och) Ett Gott Nytt Ã…r (Swedish)
Gun Tso Sun Tan'Gung Haw Sun (Cantonese)
Happy Hanukkah (Hanukkah/Channukah)
Harambee (A Kwanzaa Greeting "Let's all pull together")
Hauskaa Joulua (Finnish)
Hristos se rodi (Serbian)
Hyvaa Joulua (Finnish)
Hyvää Joulua ja Onnellista Uutta Vuotta! (or God Jul och) (Finnish)
I'D MIILAD SAID OUA SANA SAIDA (Arabic)
Idah Saidan Wa Sanah Jadidah (Iraqi)
Il - Milied Ferriehi, u is - Sena it - Tajba. (Malta)
Joyeux Noël & Bonne et heureuse Année (France and Canada)
Kala Christouyenna! Kala Khristougena kai Eftikhes to Neon Ethos (Greek)
Kellemes Karacsonyi unnepeket (Hungarian)
Kung His Hsin Nien bing Chu Shen Tan (Mandarin)
La Maunia Le Kilisimasi Ma Le Tausaga Fou (Samoan)
Linksmu sventu Kaledu (and) Laimingu Naauju Metu (Lithuanian)
Maligayang Pasko (Filipino - Tagalog)
Maligayang Pasko At Manigong Bagon Taon (Philippines)
Mata-Ki-Te-Rangi. Te-Pito-O-Te-Henua (Rapa-Nui - Easter Island)
Mele Kalikimake me ka Hauloi Makahiki hou (Hawaiian)
Merry Christmas (English)
Mitho Makosi Kesikansi (Cree)
Mo'adim Lesimkha. Chena tova (Hebrew)
Nadelik looan na looan blethen noweth (Cornish)
Nadolic Llawen. Blwyddn Newdd Dda (Welsh)
Nathaal Vaalthukal (Tamil)
Nolag mhaith Dhuit Agus Bliain Nua Fe Mhaise (Gaelic - Irish)
Nollaig Chridheil agus Bliadhna Mhath Ur (Gaelic - Scot)
Nathaal Vaalthukal (Tamil)
Naya Saal Mubarak (Urdu and Hindi)
Noeliniz Ve Yeni Yiliniz Kutlu Olsun (Turkish)
Nollaig Chridheil agus Bliadhna Mhath Ur! (Scottish Gaelic)
Nollaig chridheil huibh (Scots Gaelic)
Nollaig Shona Dhuit (Irish)
Ojenyunyat Sungwiyadeson honungradon nagwutut.Ojenyunyat osrasay (Iroquois)
Ollick Ghennal Erriu as Blein Feer Die. Seihil as Slaynt Da'n Slane Loght Thie (Manx)
Pozdravlyayu s prazdnikom Rozhdestva i s Novim Godom (Russian)
Prejeme Vam Vesele Vanoce a stastny Novy Rok (Czech)
Rõõmsaid jõulupühi ja Head uut aastat! (Estonian)
Sarbatori vesele Sarbatori Fericite. La Multi Ani (Rumanian)
Sawadee Pee Mai (Thai)
Seasons Greetings (English)
Selamat Tahun Baru, dan, Selamat Hari Krismas (Malaysia - Bahasa Malayu)
Shana Tova (Hebrew)
Shenoraavor Nor Dari yev Pari Gaghand (Armenian)
Shinnen omedeto. Kurisumasu Omedeto (Japanese)
Shub Naya Baras (Hindi)
Shubha Naba Barsha (Bangla)
Solstice Blessings (Pagan, Wicca)
Sretan Bozic Vesela Nova Godina (Croatian)
Srozhdestvom Kristovym (Ukrainian)
Sung Tan Chuk Ha (Korean)
ubha nath thalak Vewa. Subha Aluth Awrudhak Vewa (Singhalese - Ceylon/Sri Lanka)
Tchestita Koleda; Tchestito Rojdestvo Hristovo (Bulgarian)
Tezze Iliniz Yahsi Olsun (Azeri - Azerbaijan)
Vitaiu iz svyatom Rizdva ta Novim Rokom (Ukrainian)
Vesele Bozicne. Screcno Novo Leto (Slovene)
Veseleh Sviat i scaslivoho Novoho Roku (Ukrainian)
Vesele Vianoce. A stastlivy Novy Rok (Slovak)
Vrolijk Kerstfeest en een Gelukkig Nieuwjaar! Zalig Kerstfeest en een Gelukkig Nieukjaar (Dutch)
Wesolych Swiat Bozego Narodzenia (Polish)
Yeni Yilnizi Kutar, saadetler dilerim (Turkish)
Zorionak eta Urte Berri On! (Basque)
If you would like to reply please do so in the Discourse. I’d love to hear from you. Also, if you would like me to make a correction to the above, please send me mail. BCara [at] BillCara.com
There are, of course, many views on this subject. I received the following parody of Christmas greetings on Christmas Day 2004.
Saturday Markets Re-cap For Fri. Dec. 21, 2007
“Roll up the rim to win” is a famous Canadian marketing campaign for Tim Horton’s (THI), but on Friday the boost belonged to another Canadian company, Research in Motion (NDQ:RIMM, TSX:RIM).
While Research In Motion was truly in motion, up almost +11 pct after reporting after the bell Thursday that 3Q net income more than doubled to $370.5 million vs $175.2 million a year earlier, on booming sales of BlackBerrys, it is a fact that at the very moment of the news release I was in Marathon Mall in Nassau purchasing the new BlackBerry 8300 Curve.
I could say Ballsie threw me a curve, but the guy came clean about his improper backdating of insider stock options, so that act of contrition and the fact that this company is becoming a global communications powerhouse earned its way back into the Cara 100.
So RIMM/RIM provided Friday’s bull tech momentum, but tech was not the reason the equity market rocketed on Friday. That was due to news of the $5 billion Merrill Lynch cash infusion from Singapore, which was important but not as much so as the confidence-booster that Humungous Bank & Broker will get through its mess with emergency funding from Asia and the Middle East.
The DJIA (+205.01 +1.6 pct), S&P 500 (+24.34 +1.7 pct), and Nasdaq Composite (+51.13 +1.9 pct) all surged during a session that featured quadruple witching on record volume. The usual suspects in a money-printing rally were the commodity-related sectors. Energy (XLE +2.3 pct), Telecom (IYZ +2.1 pct) and Basic Materials (XLB +1.7 pct) were very strong. Many of the gold stocks were up +5 to +10 pct or more.
So too were the Consumer Staples (XLP +1.31 pct) very strong, aided perhaps by a pullback in livestock and ag markets, but perhaps also just as a hedge trade to counter the bullish energy, chemicals, papers, metals, industrials, banks, brokers and tech. Maybe it was just (Cara 100) Walgreen (WAG +6.3 pct on the day).
The day started in hot fashion after the international markets were all up strongly and it finished strong due to the Witching hour.
Not all was ok in the market, however. Circuit City Stores (CC) reported a net loss of $207.3 million vs a year-earlier net loss of $20.4 million. The Consumer Discretionary sector (XLY) was up only +0.12 pct on the day. Utilities (XLU -0.58 pct) was down as Friday was essentially a liquidity-induced rally where hot money was chasing the Energy and Materials.
Even in the Cons. Discretionary sector, there were lots of big winners Friday -- CCL +2.9 pct as Carnival Cruise Ships to Nassau to meet the Trader Wizard are rapidly filling – and EBAY +2.8 pct on hopes that sales of my book boost their revenues. LOL
In economic news, November US Personal Income rose +0.4 pct, which is a good thing, but spending soared to its highest rate since 2005, up +1.1 pct. Besides, CPI is running at +4.3 pct.
The $USD weakened vs the Euro, and Treasury yields surged (+4.64 pct on the 5-year and +3.53 pct on the 10-year) as traders moved funds in riskier assets, including oil and precious metal contracts, which also surged.
Crude Oil ($WTIC) bounced back from early lows to trade up +2.47 pct to close the week at $93.31/bbl. $GOLD lifted over +1.0 pct to close at 811.40.
Comments & Outlook
Since on balance, the economy is contracting, prices are rising because money is being printed and debt expanded at a faster clip. The result is speculation and more inflation, which is causing a stretch between price and economic value.
This is not just a US and Americas situation. Equity prices throughout Asia-Pacific and Europe also closed higher across the board.
The dilemma for traders is that we trade prices. Short-term, we have ridden the wave as early in the week I noted that the short-term USD rally had failed on Monday afternoon, which indicated a burst rising equity prices to come.
This is an important trading lesson. If you have been observing my Buy and Sell Alerts in the Cara 100, you will have seen that a couple weeks ago virtually all signals turned profitable, but after the $USD rally ended (almost certainly temporarily), the negative market sentiment reversed, and many of those signals lost ground and some became negative performers.
To a trader like me, that’s part of the dance. If the other side wants to lead, I’ll close positions and take small losses. The objective is to win more times than you lose AND to win bigger than your average loss. Observing this table closely can help you do that.
If you recall, I have stated all along that the market doesn’t always (or even often) give you clear-cut trend and turn reversals, but your job #1 is to manage risk. So, after a trade you move trailing stops to take some gains and prevent big losses. In time, you will get to see that the Accumulation/Distribution Zone monitoring and the subsequent Buy and Sell Alerts that are signaled are useful tools. You also have to watch the corporate fundamental and quantitative data, and the economic data, including interest rates and forex market prices.
When I say, stick to your knitting, this is your knitting. Nothing a political leader, media personality or guru (including me if you wish) could say should move you away from your knitting.
All you need to do is pick your own watchlist of stocks – maybe they are conservative high income securities and maybe they are penny dreadfuls, which will require addressing the nuances of your strategies and tactics – but the methodology remains the same.
I think many of you have enjoyed a rather more festive season this year having learned some of these lessons. I will assure you now that 2008 will only get better -- maybe not for market prices, but for sure in your understanding and appreciation of trading.
Learning to trade is a little more difficult than learning to ride a bike, but as they say, once you learn the basics, you will never forget how.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| SLW | 16.840 | +1.780 | +11.8 | 6M |
| RIMM | 118.630 | +11.640 | +10.9 | 56.4M |
| MICC | 122.750 | +11.540 | +10.4 | 2.1M |
| VIP | 41.980 | +2.600 | +6.6 | 4.8M |
| KB | 75.850 | +4.420 | +6.2 | 607.3K |
| WAG | 38.470 | +2.220 | +6.1 | 15.5M |
| HDB | 129.490 | +6.740 | +5.5 | 271.4K |
| TCK | 35.630 | +1.830 | +5.4 | 1.9M |
| PBR | 113.200 | +5.200 | +4.8 | 8.2M |
| TGP | 30.500 | +1.250 | +4.3 | 91.2K |
| GGB | 29.460 | +1.180 | +4.2 | 3.3M |
| GFI | 14.150 | +0.540 | +4 | 8M |
| ABB | 28.000 | +0.990 | +3.7 | 4.3M |
| CEO | 163.220 | +5.690 | +3.6 | 324.2K |
| LEH | 64.570 | +2.240 | +3.6 | 10.8M |
| CCJ | 39.960 | +1.370 | +3.6 | 3.8M |
| GS | 209.600 | +6.930 | +3.4 | 10.9M |
| IMO | 54.000 | +1.740 | +3.3 | 449.4K |
| WBK | 120.830 | +3.850 | +3.3 | 13.7K |
| BHP | 70.690 | +2.190 | +3.2 | 3.5M |
| PTR | 179.400 | +5.400 | +3.1 | 679.1K |
| CHL | 89.570 | +2.650 | +3 | 1.7M |
| CCL | 45.330 | +1.320 | +3 | 4.1M |
| ATVI | 28.770 | +0.820 | +2.9 | 9.8M |
| GOL | 25.500 | +0.720 | +2.9 | 581.9K |
|
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| MU | 7.530 | -0.390 | -4.9 | 25.1M |
| SNDK | 35.670 | -0.420 | -1.2 | 7.8M |
| MFC | 40.210 | -0.240 | -0.6 | 1M |
| ERTS | 58.930 | -0.290 | -0.5 | 5.2M |
| MCO | 37.150 | -0.140 | -0.4 | 4.7M |
| EXC | 82.260 | -0.170 | -0.2 | 6.4M |
| ERJ | 45.870 | -0.080 | -0.2 | 934.8K |
| AMAT | 17.940 | -0.030 | -0.2 | 21.6M |
| BBD | 31.450 | -0.030 | -0.1 | 3.7M |
| DNA | 67.900 | -0.060 | -0.1 | 5.5M |
| UBS | 45.280 | -0.030 | -0.1 | 3.8M |
| DELL | 24.880 | -0.010 | -0 | 39.2M |
|
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| VIP | 42.510 | 41.980 | +2.600 | +6.60 | 4.77M |
| ATVI | 29.021 | 28.770 | +0.820 | +2.93 | 9.83M |
| OXPS | 33.340 | 32.700 | +0.460 | +1.43 | 1.66M |
| TT | 46.420 | 45.990 | +0.070 | +0.15 | 3.70M |
|
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| MU | 7.370 | 7.530 | -0.390 | -4.92 | 25.09M |
| BDK | 69.800 | 70.910 | +0.490 | +0.70 | 1.35M |
|
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| SLW | 16.840 | +11.8 | 6M | +164 |
| PAYX | 37.290 | +0.7 | 6.3M | +109 |
| MICC | 122.750 | +10.4 | 2.1M | +106 |
| DIS | 32.940 | +1.9 | 20.4M | +100 |
| RIMM | 118.630 | +10.9 | 56.4M | +96 |
| TGP | 30.500 | +4.3 | 91.2K | +82 |
| WAG | 38.470 | +6.1 | 15.5M | +81 |
| JNJ | 68.030 | +1 | 20.1M | +78 |
| MU | 7.530 | -4.9 | 25.1M | +72 |
| GE | 37.140 | +1.7 | 76M | +70 |
| EXC | 82.260 | -0.2 | 6.4M | +69 |
| XOM | 93.430 | +1.4 | 34.5M | +64 |
| SBUX | 21.060 | +2.6 | 20M | +62 |
| ORCL | 22.710 | +2.8 | 58.1M | +60 |
| UTX | 77.830 | +1.9 | 6.7M | +59 |
| IBKR | 32.660 | +1.2 | 1.2M | +57 |
| PG | 74.080 | +1.2 | 16.2M | +56 |
| BBBY | 29.150 | +0 | 5.4M | +56 |
| OXPS | 32.700 | +1.4 | 1.7M | +56 |
| TCK | 35.630 | +5.4 | 1.9M | +55 |
| BC | 17.950 | +0.6 | 2.2M | +55 |
| ERTS | 58.930 | -0.5 | 5.2M | +55 |
| CVX | 94.040 | +2.2 | 13.6M | +55 |
| ADBE | 42.180 | +0 | 10.7M | +53 |
| QCOM | 39.960 | +2.1 | 25.7M | +51 |
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| SWK | Raymond James | --- |
|
--- | Mkt Perform |
|
Outperform |
|
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| RIO | Morgan Stanley | --- |
|
--- | Overweight |
|
Equal-weight |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| GOL | Morgan Stanley | --- |
|
--- | Equal-weight |
|
Underweight |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIP | 41.98 | 98.37 | 85.53 | 70.99 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| KO | 63.07 | 94.48 | 76.11 | 53.33 | Sell alert (trig. 6 days ago [on 2007-12-14 at $63.81, -1.16% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| MBT | 97.13 | 90.62 | 80.04 | 61.49 | |
| NOK | 38.53 | 90.42 | 57.66 | 55.29 | |
| LYO | 47.97 | 90.01 | 81.68 | 75.51 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| PBR | 113.20 | 87.57 | 72.90 | 66.61 | Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2007-12-13 at $110.59, +2.36% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| TEF | 97.02 | 87.05 | 64.50 | 45.19 | |
| COST | 70.08 | 86.81 | 64.37 | 64.18 | |
| HDB | 129.49 | 86.50 | 62.13 | 50.97 | |
| PG | 74.08 | 86.29 | 75.09 | 59.45 | |
| ABB | 28.00 | 85.45 | 52.15 | 50.88 | |
| GOOG | 696.69 | 82.53 | 64.33 | 57.95 | |
| MICC | 122.75 | 82.25 | 67.43 | 65.49 | |
| RIMM | 118.63 | 81.55 | 63.27 | 73.87 | |
| RIO | 33.30 | 80.80 | 51.34 | 49.98 | |
| AET | 58.55 | 78.72 | 72.24 | 62.68 | |
| VCP | 30.49 | 78.41 | 51.82 | 38.67 | |
| NKE | 66.27 | 78.29 | 76.52 | 65.42 | |
| ECA | 68.15 | 77.45 | 58.66 | 61.97 | |
| EXC | 82.26 | 77.05 | 57.79 | 42.76 | |
| ATVI | 28.77 | 75.91 | 80.66 | 84.36 | Distribution Zone (for 3 days) |
| IMO | 54.00 | 74.79 | 61.15 | 70.86 | |
| SLW | 16.84 | 74.70 | 62.29 | 68.56 | |
| TT | 45.99 | 74.57 | 77.92 | 88.34 | Distribution Zone (for 5 days) |
| OXPS | 32.70 | 74.36 | 80.75 | 74.94 | Distribution Zone (for 2 days) |
| SU | 106.59 | 74.04 | 61.42 | 72.91 | |
| GGB | 29.46 | 72.74 | 57.58 | 63.07 | |
| CHL | 89.57 | 72.67 | 57.43 | 55.14 | |
| IBN | 60.04 | 72.52 | 55.18 | 49.15 | |
| CVX | 94.04 | 70.40 | 68.61 | 68.42 | |
| BBD | 31.45 | 70.31 | 54.62 | 46.27 | |
| ORCL | 22.71 | 70.21 | 71.83 | 70.67 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| JNJ | 68.03 | 70.20 | 77.94 | 61.69 | |
| CHRW | 54.00 | 58.86 | 61.83 | 70.08 | |
| CTSH | 35.83 | 46.83 | 53.41 | 75.09 | |
| LLTC | 31.98 | 44.12 | 47.69 | 72.64 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 17.95 | 16.48 | 25.56 | 27.19 | Accumulation Zone (for 6 days) |
| BBBY | 29.15 | 18.84 | 26.70 | 30.74 | Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2007-12-17 at $29.36, -0.72% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| MU | 7.53 | 19.17 | 25.28 | 23.24 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| SBUX | 21.06 | 19.38 | 16.51 | 44.70 | Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2007-12-20 at $20.53, +2.58% chg], after a 5 day AZ) |
| KSS | 46.16 | 19.39 | 28.03 | 35.54 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2007-12-21 at $46.16, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| MCO | 37.15 | 22.20 | 28.12 | 39.44 | |
| JCP | 43.85 | 22.40 | 32.20 | 45.84 | |
| TGT | 50.68 | 28.32 | 27.99 | 30.59 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2007-12-21 at $50.68, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| UBS | 45.28 | 29.55 | 32.47 | 30.75 | |
| BDK | 70.91 | 30.21 | 24.16 | 25.83 | Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2007-12-21 at $70.91, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| DNA | 67.90 | 30.66 | 26.18 | 36.71 | |
| GFI | 14.15 | 35.36 | 25.38 | 33.82 | |
| TCK | 35.63 | 41.21 | 29.34 | 52.41 | |
| TS | 44.57 | 46.83 | 29.67 | 45.31 | |
| NTES | 19.16 | 55.99 | 48.54 | 25.77 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 2.86 | 2.81 | 2.76 | 2.97 |
| 6 Month | 3.19 | 3.14 | 3.13 | 3.16 |
| 2 Year | 3.19 | 3.09 | 3.30 | 2.99 |
| 3 Year | 3.13 | 3.02 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| 5 Year | 3.59 | 3.45 | 3.62 | 3.34 |
| 10 Year | 4.18 | 4.05 | 4.23 | 4.01 |
| 30 Year | 4.58 | 4.48 | 4.66 | 4.46 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.01 | 3.02 | 3.06 | 3.23 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.11 | 3.07 | 3.08 | 3.27 |
| 2yr A | 3.59 | 3.56 | 3.39 | 3.39 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.27 | 3.31 | 3.32 | 3.38 |
| 5yr AA | 3.28 | 3.26 | 3.31 | 3.31 |
| 5yr A | 3.53 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 3.49 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.81 | 3.77 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| 10yr AA | 3.40 | 3.36 | 3.63 | 3.68 |
| 10yr A | 4.04 | 4.00 | 4.03 | 4.02 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.61 | 4.38 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| 20yr AA | 4.41 | 4.18 | 4.20 | 4.59 |
| 20yr A | 4.62 | 4.60 | 4.65 | 4.78 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.47 | 4.30 | 4.52 | 4.15 |
| 2yr A | 4.53 | 4.48 | 4.97 | 4.28 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.71 | 4.62 | 4.78 | 4.53 |
| 5yr AA | 4.96 | 4.86 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| 5yr A | 4.87 | 4.78 | 5.13 | 4.55 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.31 | 5.19 | 5.41 | 5.13 |
| 10yr AA | 5.44 | 5.40 | 5.64 | 5.54 |
| 10yr A | 5.74 | 5.68 | 6.03 | 5.54 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.48 | 5.38 | 5.73 | 5.54 |
| 20yr AA | 5.85 | 5.75 | 5.88 | 5.73 |
| 20yr A | 6.26 | 6.18 | 6.47 | 6.00 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:
GDX Weekly data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Daily British Pound Index:
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
All Tables
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 2.86 | 2.81 | 2.76 | 2.97 |
| 6 Month | 3.19 | 3.14 | 3.13 | 3.16 |
| 2 Year | 3.19 | 3.09 | 3.30 | 2.99 |
| 3 Year | 3.13 | 3.02 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| 5 Year | 3.59 | 3.45 | 3.62 | 3.34 |
| 10 Year | 4.18 | 4.05 | 4.23 | 4.01 |
| 30 Year | 4.58 | 4.48 | 4.66 | 4.46 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.01 | 3.02 | 3.06 | 3.23 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.11 | 3.07 | 3.08 | 3.27 |
| 2yr A | 3.59 | 3.56 | 3.39 | 3.39 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.27 | 3.31 | 3.32 | 3.38 |
| 5yr AA | 3.28 | 3.26 | 3.31 | 3.31 |
| 5yr A | 3.53 | 3.52 | 3.42 | 3.49 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.81 | 3.77 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| 10yr AA | 3.40 | 3.36 | 3.63 | 3.68 |
| 10yr A | 4.04 | 4.00 | 4.03 | 4.02 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.61 | 4.38 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| 20yr AA | 4.41 | 4.18 | 4.20 | 4.59 |
| 20yr A | 4.62 | 4.60 | 4.65 | 4.78 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.47 | 4.30 | 4.52 | 4.15 |
| 2yr A | 4.53 | 4.48 | 4.97 | 4.28 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.71 | 4.62 | 4.78 | 4.53 |
| 5yr AA | 4.96 | 4.86 | 5.00 | 4.72 |
| 5yr A | 4.87 | 4.78 | 5.13 | 4.55 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.31 | 5.19 | 5.41 | 5.13 |
| 10yr AA | 5.44 | 5.40 | 5.64 | 5.54 |
| 10yr A | 5.74 | 5.68 | 6.03 | 5.54 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.48 | 5.38 | 5.73 | 5.54 |
| 20yr AA | 5.85 | 5.75 | 5.88 | 5.73 |
| 20yr A | 6.26 | 6.18 | 6.47 | 6.00 |
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 13: International equities perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 22, 2007 09:03:03 AM | Category: Daily Report
Discourse
Mr. Cara,
Once again I thank you and your contributors for this blog. I would like to add a simple anecdotal story regarding my daughter and student loans:
My daughter received a 2 year technical degree 1 1/2 years ago in the medical field. After she graduated she had $20k in student loans for that degree. After a semester off she decided to pursue a formal medical degree at the local university while working at the local hospital.
Thanks in part to THIS SITE I was able to help her with those past loans. As of a few weeks ago she had one loan remaining, an interest free loan from tehschool itself of just over $12,000. Earlier this month I sent her $3000 to apply to that loan which she did.
Yesterday while visiting me she told me astounding news, the school had decided to match dollar for dollar all loan payments made this month. WOW! She inquired and was told tehre was no maximum amount limit but that Friday at 2 PM was the latest additional payments could be made.
She drove back to her school Friday morning while I transfered another $3000 dollars into her account. This allowed her to write a check which (including the school match) pays off her tech school loans completely! Over $12,000 in loans paid off in a month thanks to a lot of luck, Dad having the money instantly available to take advantage of a great opportunity and her tech school gift (for whatever reason that is).
Mr. Cara? Your site touches lives in many, many positive ways. Your contributors do also.
Yes, she is acrueing new debt as she continues her education but now she has new motivation as her tech degree is paid for and she is currently reaping the benefits.
Best wishes to all and may your God bless you!
Posted by: JVS3 ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
December 22, 2007 10:04 AM [link]
This has been a interesting year for the markets. I would like to thank Bill and the community for your efforts in making this blog successful. Congratulations on the recent award as it is a measure of the community's efforts.
Looking forward to the new year and with that in mind I would like to express my good wishes for the holiday season, a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. [025]
Posted by: BernardF at
December 22, 2007 10:06 AM [link]
Happy Holidays and Best Wishes for a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year to everyone in the Cara Community.
I really enjoyed the story about student loans....gets me thinking of how I can help my daughter.
It is not lost on me, however, that there is probably a reason for the school matching loan payments and it isn't likely good news for the school. It makes me wonder how much trouble their investments may be in that they seem a little eager to get ahold of cash at .50 on the dollar. Maybe they are in SIVs,CDO etc. like many other education,retirement and state funds.
Hopefully there will be others that help their kids and schools like JVS3.
Very inspirational!
Oh, and for my Friends in the Commonwealth, Canada, UK, Australia and New Zealand....Happy Boxing Day!!!
Posted by: Craig at
December 22, 2007 10:32 AM [link]
Craig?
They didn't preannounce this wonderful news. My daughter had less than 6 hours to act further on it.
I asked her why they would do this and she could only speculate "Maybe payments are down and they want to boost them by offering an incentive."
I don't see how it could be good news for the school but it was great news for my Daughter.
I posted it as anecdotal financial evidence but so great posters like you and all the others and especially Mr. Cara could share in some Holiday glow! I doubt you all even realize what an impact this site has towards furthering Social Equity.
Hah! Still long SKF at 91 and SRS at 102.5. Took a beatdown yesterday but I think fundamentals will prevail. I will sell before I lose on that trade.
Posted by: JVS3 at
December 22, 2007 10:53 AM [link]
Thank you Bill for your big heart and thanks to all that make this blog so worthwhile.
Merry Christmas and a prosperous 08 to all.
Posted by: woolybear1 at
December 22, 2007 10:53 AM [link]
Happy Holidays to you too, Bill, and to all the many readers and contributors to this site. And Bill, you richly deserved your award. Congratulations.
JV's story resonates with me, too. The entire reason I am an active investor is to better help my children finance their college education. To invest, ultimately, in their future.
Why, I have to ask, is this no longer a priority in the U.S.? When I hear people like Steven Moore appear on CNBC and claim that making the Bush tax cuts permanent are good thing for this country, I want to punch the television screen. The level of unmitigated greed in this country makes me despair.
And I have even less patience with the libertarian nonsense that government has no role in supporting education. It emphatically does, unless we desire a country that produces more store clerks and soldiers than it does doctors and engineers.
Merry Christmas.
Posted by: number2son at
December 22, 2007 11:17 AM [link]
Bill:
I found your "Comments and Outlook" message today of particlar value.
When I read your comments on your methods and rationale I tend to focus on those points that pertain to my situation.
Thus, I highlight those points from today's message that standout to me and may also be helpful to others:
"... we trade prices."
"...I’ll close positions and take small losses."
"The objective is to win more times than you lose"
"... to win bigger than your average loss"
"... your job #1 is to manage risk"
"So, after a trade you move trailing stops to take some gains and prevent big losses"
"When I say, stick to your knitting, this is your knitting."
"All you need to do is pick your own watchlist of stocks... but the methodology remains the same."
I am not so sure that the new investors/traders nor even some seasoned players FULLY UNDERSTAND that your main tenet is TO LEARN HOW TO MANAGE RISK.
Thanks.
JVS3,
Your message had the intended result!
Best of wishes to you and your (temporarily) debt free daughter! By the time she graduates from Medical School who knows what will be possible!
Nice entry on SKF. It was only a couple of points yesterday, no worries. You know, when it really goes against you it makes a decent short.
Posted by: Craig at
December 22, 2007 11:57 AM [link]
Happy Holidays to you Bill and all around the world, and thanks for all that has been offered on this site.
I thought I will share what I have learned from your insight and thru horrific mistakes as a result of not following trading rules in addition to what was mentioned earlier.....
Be ruthlessly self honest and disciplined
Use a framework and a time frame to conduct my analysis. e.g. accum/distrib or support and resistance.
Know the difference between macro forces underlying the economy, versus the psychology behind shorter term price movements within the timeframe I trade in.
Being richer, is much better than being right!! Trade what I see in the charts, not what I believe. My opinion of the economy and the markets( unlike a regular business ) is less relevant to profitable trades than the discipline of applying stops and respecting trendlines and trends. ( e.g. prices can go a lot higher or a lot lower than my opinion )
The market makes me money, I am the one that can lose it. :) When that finally hit home..I have used stops ever since...
Trade the trend. That has kept me out of trouble and my opinions.
Do my homework and turn that homework into a practical daily trading plan based on what actually is occuring in the marketplace. Act in the moment to prices..with both a long and short strategy...and wait.
My own mental state has more to do with recognizing opportunities ...while the stops and alerts cover my rear.
Pay attention to overbought and oversold conditions and dont trade from memory.
Trust that greed and fear will guide market actions..and the alertness and discipline of WHEN and how to switch when the trend shifts!!
Have a disciplined, consistent daily routine to review markets, rules, lessons and personal psychology before trading
Thanks again...let me know when you plan on offering trading seminars to go with the book.
Oh BTW for those who trade FXI / FXP...becareful of comparing it to the Shanghai Composite index. It actually correlates more to the QQQQ and EWH..and it trades when Shanghai is asleep...check out the correlation.. Happy New YEAR!
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
December 22, 2007 12:48 PM [link]
Merry Christmas Bill and Readers.
I have posted an interesting chart showing the
ratio of Non-Durable to Durable Goods Consumption.
This ratio in the past has help to point to recessions.
The consumer has the propensity to spend, but does it have the ability now?
Posted by: Will Rahal at
December 22, 2007 1:03 PM [link]
EEMTRADER:
Here is what I am taking from you... some of them are based on the mistakes I make and some are new and I am adding to my methods.
"... horrific mistakes as a result of not following trading rules
..Being richer, is much better than being right!!
... the discipline of applying stops and respecting trendlines and trends. ( e.g. prices can go a lot higher or a lot lower than my opinion )
The market makes me money: I am the one that can lose it.
... My own mental state has more to do with recognizing opportunities ...while the stops and alerts cover my rear.
... dont trade from memory."
Thanks
Golfer...I concur with your highlights...manage risk. Once I pick a position I have to say to myself..."this is a business, not a horse race where I cheer for my horse/stock...but it has to be part of a plan to sell and re-enter per what my port dictates.
Persoanlly been involved in other duties and not watching this blog as closely as in the past. Quite a job to be on top of this blog.
Will share what my plan is going forward and quite glad to get feedback.
Half of my account is going to follow a strict mechanical program that does tactical asset allocation with efs. Leaders get choosen; this is not a value based strategy. Hard stop losses are built in with purchase loss always tigher than when profit starts climbing a looser trailing high stop kicks in. The most subjective component is when to stop playing and go to all cash and wait. So far, the rule is keep going until longterm trend violated; and this will incur some pain.
The other half is following the guidance of Bill and his colleague Donald Coxe...they have a similar top down view but Bill reveals far more in terms of tactical strategies..a man for all seasons.
This other half will have 3 different groups: cara global 100, agribusiness, and gold pm. Agribusiness stocks are so extended that I will wait for a correction to use this group. Meanwhile, I have been using a full position in the etf/MOO as the more diversified way to capture movment. Unfortunate that I didn't act on my convictions about this theme sooner.
For the cara 100 Bill has served up a wonderful display and organized set of tables. I think of the bottom one (at least one time period less than 70) as the place to go fishing. Since I like my software and will try to integrate it to stay disciplined, anyone of those in the bottom group that have a positive alpha momentum for both 10 and 25 day periods and negative longer term alphas relative to the .rua index are buy candidates. If the larger mkt is ok, if the sector is ok, then I take a position and immediately place trailing stops that are tight at first, then looser once capital safe, and then tighter to protect profits.
I will do this weekly and not put stress on myself by viewing daily.
That leaves the gold pm's. I imagine that I'm not the only here to "hear" Bill....and Don Coxe,too...to believe that big money will be made here. I have gotten inpatient. My sense is that Bill is saying stay in cash, keep your powder dry because when the broad mkt falls the pm's will be much much cheaper. This week, though, I finished filling as much as I'm going to: a basket of juniors and seniors per report from RBC, and used the endeavor stock as proxy for a managed fund of specs/juniors. I'm underwater and the knife keeps falling but my read of the charts is that when these move up, it's a rapid v and it will require very close monitoring to get closer to the bottom.
Last comment is where I really stick my neck out. Bill is passionate in looking behind the curtain and sharing well based fears with us. One might then jump to the conclusion that sky is going to fall...any moment. However, me/jasper thinks it's best to consider Bill's core guidance, while more dispassionate,as is his rsi model and should be seen as the first and final say in guidance. This all comes back to the challenge that Bill has of sharing his most candid thoughts to an audience with so many different investment horizons. Anyway, that's my take from a reader who looks mostly at WIR's and some of the daily intro commentary.
I hope to get feedback from others, particularly about my last comment. Happy Holidays to all. Good health above all.
Posted by: jasper at
December 22, 2007 2:07 PM [link]
I thought everyone would find it interesting that Bill's notion of HB&B unloading their equities at the peak has been confirmed by the Wellington Letter. Have a look at the site: http://www.dohmencapital.com/
Posted by: Student at
December 22, 2007 3:22 PM [link]
Hello Golfer...Isnt Trading like Golf?...its more a mental game ...cant do much about the markets or liquidity or HB&B shennanigans...other than to make it profitable for me...so why not play the turf, the winds and the greens...?:)
The time consuming part is conditioning a philosophy to a profitable habit...what a trip..!! Putt for Dough..opinions are for show...
Merry xmas.
Eric
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
December 22, 2007 3:49 PM [link]
Jasper and EEMTRADER:
Thanks for the replies.
I try to use much of my basketball, football coaching experiences and playing competitive golf experiences in my approach to and methods for investing.
For example, I was very good at preparing my players in the BASIC physical skills and also the systems that we would use in games and developing a game plan. I was not necessarily a good game coach. Thus, as I time went on I had an assistant coach who basically coached the team during a game.
This is what I am fighting in my dealings with taking care of my own investing.
I can do the DD... set my stops (technical and investment) before I determine ny positions, have a trading plan etc. but in the heat of battle usually make the two dumbest mistakes.... hold the losers too long and sell the winners too soon.
It may have something to do with my coaching philosophy in that once a boy/girl made the "team" they were on the team and it would take a major disaster for me to let him/her go.
What I am beginning to see more and more through this blog is that I can apply more of my coaching experiences to the plan... I did rest players during a game and substitute others in for them... I did go with the hot hand until it wasn't hot anymore.... I did have players sit if it wasn't their night...
To paraphrase from one of my grandchildrens shows... "Discourse is good Donkey."
PS... Putt for Dough..opinions are for show may be true but if you have a good caddy it pays to listen to them at times.
Will,
Thanks for the charts regarding consumer spending.
When the dot.com bubble burst, there was a recession due to a drop in Business Capital Spending. If I recall correctly, Business Capital Spending accounted for less than 15% of GDP at the time. If consumer spending is 2/3 of today's GDP, outside of a noticeable growth in consumer debt, I have a hard time figuring out how we can't go into a recession in today's environment. IMO, this has been the big picture for some time now.
Happy Holidays!
g034
Posted by: g034 at
December 22, 2007 4:55 PM [link]
Looks like I got in a bit too early with CC... but Korvus' RSI widget tells me I'm "in the zone..."
Hopefully it's correct. If I see a bit of a pop Monday I'll grab some more.
What does it mean when Yahoo tells me CC is 101% institutionally-owned? Am I looking at some serious volatility here?
How about this quote? "enthusiasm is always a great indicator of an overpriced stock. "
Take a look at this chart and tell me if the opposite is true of CC... I haven't seen this much negative news in such a short timeframe... It's almost like they want the stock to go down...
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=CC
This is kind of funny... they had to give the CFO a bunch of electronics just to keep him around to finish their 10k.
"The options listed above will be exercisable as of July 1, 2007. Mr. Foss may exercise these options, along with any previously vested non-qualified stock options held by him as of the date of the letter agreement, until December 31, 2007. The Board of Directors also waived payment for merchandise held by Mr. Foss and valued at $5,148 under the Company's Officer Evaluation Program"
investing against the headlines worked for ETFC... let's see about this dog.
Hi Golfer...I need to correct myself regarding opinion vs insight.
Insight is looking at something that I havent seen or is not obvious...opinion is posturing on a market direction before it happens or contrary to what is actually happening. A caddy has insight - especially when its not known to the public or seen thru my own eyes..anything to help improve the game.
An opinion is most CNBC commentators ..as most of them dont trade their own money..versus a WIR that offers a methodical , timely approach to money flow versus entertaining opinions about recession or not as the RTH plunge from $107 to the $90s.
A stock is not a person...the potential of a person lies in their own ability..a stock price is represetnative of the masses holding it. Toughest call is to admit that I am wrong and let go of my attachments..better to be richer than right when it eventually rebounds as a shadow of its former self..aka ..csco in 2000.
Still a great company..like my neighbor who works there..that bought a 500SL in 1999 and in 2002 gave up his 500SL and chose to get some exrcise by mowing his own lawn. Bet he wish he sold!!
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
December 22, 2007 5:17 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
MELE KALIKIMAKA to all!
Durable versus non durable ... bear versus bull ... inflation vs deflation? In the past consumers have had a free ride all the way to bankruptcy court. NO REPERCUSSIONS AT ALL! I have posted numerous times here about my bankruptcy court experiences as a creditor. In one word the consumer was always"unaccountable"! FREE SPENDING UNACCOUNTABILITY ... That about sums up how the US government has operated the past 40 years! It was so widely known that bankruptcy was "easy" that rarely did even one creditor show up at a bankruptcy court hearing ... NOT ONE! Now however, things have changed and there is no "easy" bankruptcy any more. That will have an effect on the consumers non-durable goods "spending psyche"! The current boom in delinquencies and defaults in the housing market will also have an effect on the durable goods "buying psyche" ... Beware of buying seems to be the mode now. If any more US Banks crumble the outlook will get even more bleak for credit.
FINALLY ... someone who supports my view of the impending financial mess! I have been saying all along that its MONEY SUPPLY ... Never mind about the consumer. If you have seen a long term chart of M3 it really starts to skyrocket up around 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. By that simple stroke of the pen money printing became an "unlimited" panacea for all our ills. What else can the FED do but print? Let me put it this way ... What else did the FED ever want to do but print? Banks don't make money when there's no debt! Clearly the M3 shows printing is all these guys ever do!
I have said that the coming financial mess will be worse than 1929 mainly from the stand point that technology has put more of us into money inflation mode. It is easy to click a mouse and the FED has $40bil ... "presto"! Money moves around the World in a mouse click! In 1929 money had to be printed on an actual press with ink and paper, but more important money priting still had the GOLD brake on it! Now it does not ...
From Peter Schiff ...
READ ON:
Not Your Father's Deflation
Those in the deflation camp believe that money supply will collapse as a natural consequence of the implosion of the biggest credit bubble in U.S. history. As loans go bad, assets, which collateralize these loans, will be sold at fire sale prices to satisfy creditors. It is also argued that a recession will reduce consumer discretionary spending, causing retailers to slash prices to move their bloated inventories. This is the way the situation played out in the 1930's and this is how many expect it to happen today.
However there are several key differences between then and now, which argue against the classic deflationary scenario. In particular, the Fed's ability to pump liquidity into the market in the 1930's was limited by the gold backing requirements on U.S. currency. No such limitations exist today. This distinction is critical. When credit was destroyed after the Crash of 1929, the Fed was not able to simply replace it out of thin air. Today however, the Fed will likely print as much money as necessary to prevent nominal prices from collapsing. In fact, in the infamous speech that spawned his “helicopter" sobriquet, Ben Bernanke explained how the printing press can be used to stop deflation dead in its tracks.END
You get the gist ...
This is only part of the article the entire article can be read at the following link.
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2gscw3
This is why I am waiting in "real money" gold and not the ETFs. This is why I am waiting mainly in junior GOLD and some SILVER(monetary metals)explorers close to production or on properties within 3 years of production.
I understand Bill's take on "all stocks" will crash when the DOW crashes. I see that as true, but I also believe the potential exists for certain junior explorers to buck the trend. The fact still remains that the junior explorer sector is the smallest of the smallest teency sectors out of all the markets. If you sit out too long you may not get back in on certain companies, especially at the prices they trade at now. Just because the HUI and the XAU are up on an annual basis does not mean the juniors are. The HUI and XAU indexes are made up of more liquid and larger producing companies. For sure those companies that make up the HUI and XAU will fall in a DOW crash, but a lot of the juniors are already down 50% already. Many are in severly oversold territory and not because they have fundamental problems. The sector is out of favor right now and that to me is another indicator for buying not selling. I always make the most money finding sectors that are in the position that the junior explorers are in right now ... You just can't say you're buying in at the top ...
Kaimu,
Could you be talking to me about my post feeling it has been a risk to take my final position with the junior pms? They're already down so hard and the v shaped turn arounds would have me chasing. Then again, I sense that this is not the conventional wisdom here, as it's better to wait for the big correction? Of course, depends on which juniors and I don't have the cajonas to play the under dollar stocks.
Posted by: jasper at
December 22, 2007 7:06 PM [link]
Surprise move this week is?
The CANADIAN DOLLAR GOLD PRICE!!
http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/images/dailyshort_7.gif
'nother chart:
http://goldprice.org/axstone/uploaded_images/trendline_new-713285.jpg
Meh-heh-her-r-r-ry Christmas One And All!!!
Ho Ho Ho Ho!
Posted by: FranSix at
December 22, 2007 9:01 PM [link]
RSI model question..
...from the amount of traffic not likely to get a response..but here goes.
If there's an accumulation buy signal....and the position is bought, it's unrealistic to think that it is a given that one can hold it until it's ripe for a sale with weekly and monthly rsi's going smoothly into the 70's. What happens if the buy signal follows with a 8-10 percent loss in price? One hopes to get a long term hold smooth sailing into multi period ripe development but how do you manage it along the way? Use rsi and macd indicators to trade out, and back in as warranted?
Posted by: jasper at
December 22, 2007 10:34 PM [link]
Bill ,a very interesting article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Sundays london telegraph.It's about the crises of both US and european C.B.s.I have to learn how to pot urls. Bob.
Bill ,a very interesting article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Sundays london telegraph.It's about the crises of both US and european C.B.s.I have to learn how to pot urls. Bob.
Jasper...the RSI model..I believe is intended for the Cara 100 or superior global companies that have solid fundamentals, whether its positioning, brand, balance sheet, leadership or the eventual return of large and growing global demand...not sure how well it works for junior gold mining companies which can be highly speculative and/or thinly traded.
When the RSI 7 on a daily has CROSSED UP from below 30, it gives a signal. Hope you have other compellign reality based reasons or catalysts that the stock will go up for a few days or longer other than RSI alone.
Low can go lower..check out some of the US financial companies like WM,MBI...weak fundamentals and technicals and could quite likely be getting weaker...why would someone want to buy those now when there are other stocks to choose from? They fit the definition of the accumulation zone using RSI only, though whether they are world class can be a patriotic or a waste of time discussion.
You want to incorporate more than RSI in your buy sell decisions..seasonality, sentiment(expectations), strength or weakness..whether the stock is under heavy distribution or starting to base and accumulating or look at some other companies and pass on the juniors....
Isnt the GDX facing resistance about $1 from where it closed on friday? Not sure how that impacts the juniors...
Posted by: EEMTRADER at
December 22, 2007 11:20 PM [link]
BOB B
Try this link and follow instructions to get TINY URL
Crisis may make 1929 look a 'walk in the park'
Last Updated: 11:29pm GMT 22/12/2007
As central banks continue to splash their cash over the system, so far to little effect, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard argues things are rapidly spiralling out of their control
Twenty billion dollars here, $20bn there, and a lush half-trillion from the European Central Bank at give-away rates for Christmas. Buckets of liquidity are being splashed over the North Atlantic banking system, so far with meagre or fleeting effects.
As the credit paralysis stretches through its fifth month, a chorus of economists has begun to warn that the world's central banks are fighting the wrong war, and perhaps risk a policy error of epochal proportions.
"Liquidity doesn't do anything in this situation," says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression.
"It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue," she adds.
Lenders are hoarding the cash, shunning peers as if all were sub-prime lepers. Spreads on three-month Euribor and Libor - the interbank rates used to price contracts and Club Med mortgages - are stuck at 80 basis points even after the latest blitz. The monetary screw has tightened by default.
York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, says the global authorities have just weeks to get this right, or trigger disaster.
Posted by: moneygenie at
December 23, 2007 12:04 AM [link]
Britain has become a 'Catholic country'
By Jonathan Wynne-Jones
Last Updated: 2:30am GMT 23/12/2007
Roman Catholics have overtaken Anglicans as the country's dominant religious group. More people attend Mass every Sunday than worship with the Church of England, figures seen by The Sunday Telegraph show.
This means that the established Church has lost its place as the nation's most popular Christian denomination after more than four centuries of unrivalled influence following the Reformation.
Last night, leading figures gave warning that the Church of England could become a minority faith and that the findings should act as a wake-up call.
Posted by: moneygenie at
December 23, 2007 12:13 AM [link]
Do we have to do the CRUSADES again?? did'nt we lose the last time?? my mind boggles. It's like the middle ages for these guys.
Tony Blair takes final step to Catholicism
By Jonathan Wynne-Jones and Andrew Alderson
Last Updated: 2:15am GMT 23/12/2007
“Mr Blair took into account his faith when making some important decisions as prime minister. In an interview with Michael Parkinson last year, he referred to the role of his Christian faith in his decision to go to war in Iraq, saying that he had prayed about the issue, and that God would judge him for his decision.”
Posted by: moneygenie at
December 23, 2007 12:24 AM [link]
jasper - RSI, etc.
There's lots of good stuff buried deeply in the archives. Searching using terms like "RSI", "MACD", "Stochastics" or "Wm%R" will bring up some interesting and useful posts.
Here's a classic that Bill wrote almost 2 years ago regarding the use of the RSI indicator. http://tinyurl.com/ytdzze
There is also lots of good information mentioned in the "Analytics" pulldown at the main menu - http://www.billcara.com/technical/
Stockcharts site is also useful for trying to make sense out of all the squiggly lines :-)
http://tinyurl.com/2z3b6l
Last posting for a while but possibly someone more versed in the T/A stuff can give some useful perspective about the TRIX indicator and how (IF?) it could be used to advantage in current markets.
Here's what Stockcharts details - http://tinyurl.com/2cxoda
Thanks in advance to any responses. Merry Christmas to all.
Posted by: r. saunders at
December 23, 2007 12:58 AM [link]
Jasper, your recent question re: RSI entries and managing the position following entry seems to be more about "where do I set appropriate stops?"
I've been studying this for a while now, and it appears to me that setting appropriate stops is perhaps the most important aspect of trading. If I know how to set (and reset) appropriate stops then I'm able to truly let my winners run and keep my losses small.
I'm interested in all feedback on setting appropriate stops that anyone may be willing to post.
Dave
Posted by: DaveB at
December 23, 2007 9:44 AM [link]
r.saudners
re trix
Smoothes out the price data but the one I really like is martin pring's kst indicators which stockcharts does not carry and I'm not using metastock anymore
i think best to vary trix periods to find a best fit
here's an example that might apply to current mkt with $cpc...also using another sentiment, $vix
sell at extreme bottoms, buy at extreme tops, use zero crossing in between as trigger signal. Put in different indices long $spx to see how accurate it is...place behind/above the sentiment indicator.
thanks for all the references on rsi; yes the archives is a great resource
fwiw, I am talking about using the rsi model directly to bill's list of global 100...companies that are best of best types that one expects to do well longer term; still this is not a given. It would be informative to see a hypothetical history of buy and sells in the past year using the cara 100. A model in action can speak volumes.
Posted by: jasper at
December 23, 2007 11:22 AM [link]
Hello,
Is anyone having a problem connecting to Korvus app. or is it just me??
http://rsi.korvus.net/RSIApp/RSIApp.html
pls. say one way or the other. Thanks much.
Further, is everyone on vacation already or is tomorrow a working day?? I have some GS calls to sell so I'll be around at least at the open.
So another year has come and gone.
"who knows where the time goes".
My best wishes for Peace of mind, love and JOY to all who read. My Thanks to Mr. Cara and his tech team and all who share for so much of what I am grateful for. May we all prosper and have wealth of health, happiness and abundance now and always.
Love and Light to all.
Posted by: moneygenie at
December 23, 2007 12:32 PM [link]
Jasper,
The Tech Team is working on it.
moniegenie,
korvus is on vacation for a week. He might see your note and do a fix-up. As for me, I couldn't carry his computer bag. :-)
Posted by: Bill Cara at
December 23, 2007 12:36 PM [link]
moneygenie,
I got results from the Korvus link using my own 100 stock watchlist.
Posted by: Fred at
December 23, 2007 12:58 PM [link]
I thought people would appreciate this succinct article on the ABCP fiasco,written by Eric Margolis for SunMedia. The quote on Greed is excellent. It's nice to know that Wall Street & the White House share the same breed of cockroach.
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2007/12/23/4738088-sun.php
Posted by: Student at
December 23, 2007 12:59 PM [link]
FranSix at December 22, 2007 9:01 PM
"Surprise move this week is?
The CANADIAN DOLLAR GOLD PRICE!!
with chart from gold.org ……… "
Yes, HO HO HO, interesting charts, I missed that spike on Gold up to $920 Cdn for a couple of days. Reminds us all to check the data from multiple sources and then I still ask myself "does it make sense?", also the chart on the $Aussie looked strange.
In this case it didn't make sense, nor did it jive with other data sources. So I checked their data used to generate the charts and looks like some errors crept into the data base for both the $C and $A during the week of Dec 3 to 7th. I'll try and send them an email.
Spreadsheet showing database errors at gold.org
http://tinyurl.com/28srtv
Posted by: Quasi at
December 23, 2007 2:33 PM [link]
JVS3,
Your post today also resonated with me. After being a financial planner for the past 24 years I am admittedly a fairly conservative investor. However, this year my son was diagnosed with a medical condition. This condition put him without work for several months, resulting in non payment to me of substantial rent on a home I purchased a few years ago in order that he and his family could someday enjoy all the benefits of ownership. I made a decision to take about 10% of my managed investments and actively trade with the objective of paying off the mortgage when it renews in a few years. I am pleased to report that with the support of the Cara community my YTD performance on my BMO Investorline account is + 24.8%. Thank you Bill and fellow contributors for all of your guidance. Blessings of the season to all!
Posted by: TerryC at
December 23, 2007 3:27 PM [link]
mg- every day is a working day, even if i'm on vacation...staying in sync is essential if you're actively trading...the only 'excuse' i can think of is if you're intentionally walking away for emotional reasons...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
December 23, 2007 4:34 PM [link]
Here are some very interesting quotes from Alan Greenspan’s speech four years ago entitled "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty." It starts with the sentence: "Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape." It then goes on to tell us just how uncertain monetary policy is:
"Despite the extensive efforts to capture and quantify these key macroeconomic relationships, our knowledge about many of the important linkages is far from complete and in all likelihood will always remain so. Every model, no matter how detailed or how well designed conceptually and empirically, is a vastly simplified representation of the world that we experience with all its intricacies on a day-to-day basis. Consequently, even with large advances in computational capabilities and greater comprehension of economic linkages, our knowledge base is barely able to keep pace with the ever-increasing complexity of our global economy."
"Look, guys," he tells us (my paraphrasing), "stop looking at three different trends, running them out ad infinitum and then drawing a conclusion about the wisdom or stupidity of our decisions. The factors affecting your trends are so complex that any number of significant events could change the relationships between your trends and the desired policy."
Further, he points out that the traditional measures of money stock are becoming increasingly meaningless. The obsession with M-2 or M-3 makes for good newsletter copy, but what do such broad aggregates mean in a world where new forms of money (SWAPs, derivatives, mortgages bonds, etc) appear every day? The implication that the old linear relationships between money supply (as measured by some arbitrary and outdated statistic like M-2) and inflation may no longer be valid.
"Recent history has also reinforced the perception that the relationships underlying the economy's structure change over time in ways that are difficult to anticipate. This has been most apparent in the changing role of our standard measure of the money stock.....in the past two decades, what constitutes money has been obscured by the introduction of technologies that have facilitated the proliferation of financial products and have altered the empirical relationship between economic activity and what we define as money, and in doing so has inhibited the keying of monetary policy to the control of the measured money stock."
Not only are past relationships not always linear, but past relationships may change over time. This is the old principle of "past performance is not indicative of future results." Just because things worked in the past does not mean they will in the future, as the world is changing rapidly.
*********
The conclusion I draw from this is that a trader should not make large bets based on his/her *belief* of how the market should behave, as the market can really behave in *ANY* way. The market analysis can provide a preference for a direction of trading (e.g., in-and-out of short positions or long positions), but one should not repeatedly “double down” on a trade or sell short more and more shares as a particular stock rises. For example, the members of this blog are currently leaning towards shorting the market, and I agree with this opinion. I myself have made a lot of money in the last couple of months by going in and out of SKF and CFC, and my portfolio is still at the peak of its gains even though I have been buying GROW on the way down starting at $30 and UXG at $6. However, this tendency can reverse at any point (most likely, when the market will look weakest and we’ll be most confident in taking short positions and not closing them when the stocks rise, thinking that they will definitely fall down again), and it will take only one mistake of this sort (letting a short position explode or adding to a short position as the stocks keep rising) to completely wipe out all the previous gains.
Posted by: David at
December 23, 2007 6:43 PM [link]
Continuing the thought from my previous post about not "fighting the market," here is a possible explanation (George Friedman of Stratfor) for why the market has not crashed yet, and why it might not crash at all and instead follow and orderly route down with lower highs and lower lows:
"The Persian Gulf oil producers and the Chinese have one thing in common -- they are linked to the dollar. As the dollar declines, assets in other countries become more expensive, particularly if you regard the dollar's fall as ultimately reversible. Dollars invested in dollar-denominated vehicles make sense. Therefore, we are seeing two massive inflows of dollars to the United States -- one from China and one from the energy industry. China's dollar reserves are derived from sales to the United States, so it is stuck in the dollar zone. Plus, the Chinese have pegged the yuan to the dollar. The energy industry, also part of the dollar zone, needs to find a home for its money -- and the largest, most liquid dollar-denominated market in the world is the United States.
This provides an explanation for the resiliency of U.S. markets. Every time the news on the subprime situation sounds so horrendous that it seems the U.S. markets will crash, the opposite occurs. In fact, markets in the United States rose through the early days, then sold off and now have rallied again. Where is the money coming from?
We would argue that the money is coming from the dollar bloc and its huge free cash flow from China, and at the moment, the Arabian Peninsula in particular. This influx usually happens anonymously through ordinary market actions, though occasionally it becomes apparent through large, single transactions that are quite open. Last week, for example, Dubai invested $7 billion in Citigroup, helping to clean up the company's balance sheet and, not incidentally, letting it be known that dollars being accumulated in the Persian Gulf will be used to stabilize U.S. markets."
Posted by: David at
December 23, 2007 6:51 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
David ... Greenspan is really not the most reliable source for MONETARY 101 lessons. I suggest you tune into the Mises Institute instead. Greenspan will never admit that HE and his BANKS are the problem! They can never resolve the problem of "monetary inflation" through printing more money. That's like saying lets fix this leak in the sinking MONEY BOAT by drilling a hole to let the water out! That'sthe conclusion to the classic THREE STOOGES episode where all three are in a sinking boat bailing it out by throwing the water behind them so the next guy can bail it out yet the water never ever actually gets bailed out of the sinking boat!
You can't fix inflation and print money at the same time! The whole bank "bailouts" is just like an episode of the the THREE STOOGES!
Besides Greenspan knows the truth ... he's a former GOLDBUG!
The Mises Institute web site is at http://tinyurl.com/23plo
Posted by: johojo at
December 24, 2007 12:01 AM [link]
Re: http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2007/12/23/4738088-sun.php
Posted by: Student at December 23, 2007 12:59 PM
Thank you Student for pointing to this article.
Recognizing the craziness and having to advise people with that in mind while also watching share prices move constantly higher has been a difficult two and a half years for me. Having some brain-dead rating service list me as 2nd worst of 31 so-called guru's is an insult, but if it doesn't bother this community, it sure doesn't me. We are marching to our own drummer.
I can hear the music now...
Lift up your head to the rising sun, Bahamaland,
March on to glory, your bright banners waving high,
See how the world marks the manner of your bearing ;
Pledge to excel thro' love and unity.
Pressing onward, march together, to a common loftier goal ;
Steady sunward tho' the weather hide the wide and treacherous shoal.
Lift up your head to the rising sun, Bahamaland,
'til the road you've trod lead unto your God, March on Bahamaland.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
December 24, 2007 9:37 AM [link]
Re: Canadian Dollar Gold Price
Have been waiting quite some time for that to break out. I believe that the $C bullion price is the least controlled, since there is simply no gold left to lease from the Central Bank. You have to wonder at the archaic banking system that would permit the Central Bank to lease out its $89m cdn. gold holdings so many times over that it could effectively control the gold price in Canada. Just won't happen.
As a matter of fact, this is probably at the heart of how bullion prices will continue to firm up, that attempting to assuage inflation fears by dumping gold leases on the markets becomes increasingly futile. I imagine the confusion will really set in when gold prices remain firm and base metals couldn't be given away.
The great exception to this has been the Euro zone centraal banks that continue to dump bullion, hoping to either liquify markets or fend off inflation in some kind of talismanic waving of a wand in the face of the dire economics of widening credit spreads.
Posted by: FranSix at
December 24, 2007 9:54 AM [link]
The great curiosity about this kind of market action in the bullion is that Doug Embry has long maintained that eventually the ruse of spreading gold leases in the attempt to fix a gold price would tumble, since there simply isn't any gold left in Central Banks to lease.
Well, we were looking for this to occur in the U.S. or perhaps in Europe. But, it's right here in the domestic economy of Canada under our noses. Congratulations, Mr. Embry! Feather in your cap.
Posted by: FranSix at
December 24, 2007 10:08 AM [link]
Sorry, that John Embry.
Posted by: FranSix at
December 24, 2007 11:46 AM [link]
Post a comment
Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
The fly in the ointment obviously remains the derivative-laden, hard to price financial sector. HB&B needs to support the downtrodden (bankrupt?) Ambacs of the world. What are your insured securities worth if the insurer goes under?
My Saturday Morning Coffee offering, including some Cara data, charts, and some Matchbox 20.
http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/12/saturday-morning-coffee-how-far-weve.html
Posted by: Ron![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
December 22, 2007 9:24 AM [link]