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December 15, 2007
Daily Report for Sat, Dec 15, 2007
Markets Re-cap
Stocks were crushed Friday as traders could see that global banks are writing down potentially trillions in bad real-estate mortgages at a time that the inflation data is looking ominous.
The DJIA (-178.11 to 13340), S&P 500 (-20.46), and Nasdaq Composite (-32.75) indexes sank after the CPI report. Just like Thursday's PPI report showed that inflation in the US is surging because the falling $USD is boosting the cost of imports to US producers, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged +0.8 pct in November, which is the fastest monthly growth rate for quite some time and has led to a Y/Y growth of +4.3 pct.
On the earnings front, Black & Decker (BDK) 4Q earnings dropped almost -40 pct to $1.03 from $1.55 - $1.65 a year ago, and to $6 from $6.50 - $6.60 for the full year.
As the $USD surged on expectations of higher interest rates and other action by US authorities to muzzle inflation, the Crude Oil and Precious Metal prices dropped.
The $USD gained +1.12 pct on the day to close at 77.396, off the high of 77.485. It was just Nov 23 that the $USD hit a 52-week low at 74.484.
Spot gold dropped -1.06 pct on the day to close at 794.00, rising in the afternoon from the morning low around 9:45am of 787.70. Spot silver was weak most of the day, falling -2.82 pct to 13.77, close to the low of 13.71.
Earlier in the day, Asian markets finished mostly lower, while European markets remained strong, given that the ECB did not drop rates and will likely not have to raise them either.
Comments & Outlook
The DJIA is now at 13340, off its 52-week high of 14198 on Oct 11. The line in the sand for the Bull-Bear struggle is 12800.
You may argue that the DJIA is headed for 14,000 or 15,000, and I have agreed that with certain govt and central bank policies anything is possible, but you cannot deny that, in the big picture, wealth is being destroyed today.
The list of things you cannot ignore are piling up, such as:
• Stagflation (slowing economy and rising inflation) is rapidly destroying wealth.
• The balance sheets of the largest banks in the world are of dubious, but unknown quality, and requiring massive capital injections to maintain the required reserves.
• The market top was reached for the world’s two most important capital markets, the US (early Oct) and Japan (July), and probably for the next most important, UK and Europe, and China (both Shanghai and Hong Kong) also in October.
Are you prepared for the Bear Market? Have you even accepted my opinions we are in one?
Based on the many communications I have received in recent days and weeks, expressing serious financial concerns, I have started discussions with a private Swiss bank (non investment banking or SIV involved) to develop a “Managing Armageddon” Fund. This Fund will start up in 1Q08. As and when details are agreed, I shall let you know.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Knobias Cara100 Tables
|
Portfolio GAINERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| TT | 37.200 | +1.370 | +3.8 | 4.5M |
| VIP | 38.630 | +0.720 | +1.9 | 2.9M |
| RIMM | 105.980 | +1.680 | +1.6 | 28.3M |
| IBKR | 30.640 | +0.460 | +1.5 | 454.3K |
| LEH | 62.240 | +0.870 | +1.4 | 15.4M |
| MBT | 95.220 | +1.260 | +1.3 | 1.3M |
| ERTS | 58.080 | +0.750 | +1.3 | 3.5M |
| GS | 210.670 | +2.190 | +1.1 | 10.3M |
| IMO | 52.160 | +0.510 | +1 | 216.1K |
| ATVI | 26.720 | +0.220 | +0.8 | 3.9M |
| ERJ | 47.200 | +0.380 | +0.8 | 986.2K |
| DIS | 33.010 | +0.250 | +0.8 | 12M |
| LYO | 47.760 | +0.270 | +0.6 | 4.9M |
| CCL | 45.020 | +0.230 | +0.5 | 5.5M |
| SU | 103.260 | +0.180 | +0.2 | 1.5M |
| MFC | 40.470 | +0.030 | +0.1 | 1.3M |
| MCO | 38.480 | +0.020 | +0.1 | 3.6M |
| ECA | 67.620 | +0.030 | +0 | 1.6M |
|
|
Portfolio LOSERS |
| SYMB | LAST | CHG | %C | VOL |
| BDK | 73.310 | -6.820 | -8.5 | 5.7M |
| BHP | 71.070 | -3.270 | -4.4 | 4.7M |
| WBK | 123.530 | -5.670 | -4.4 | 10.3K |
| SWK | 48.930 | -2.120 | -4.2 | 1.4M |
| ADBE | 42.110 | -1.790 | -4.1 | 9.5M |
| TM | 106.300 | -4.130 | -3.7 | 1M |
| KB | 71.800 | -2.680 | -3.6 | 420.6K |
| VCP | 31.150 | -1.110 | -3.4 | 562.9K |
| ABV | 71.680 | -2.510 | -3.4 | 833.3K |
| INTC | 26.290 | -0.870 | -3.2 | 68.7M |
| SLW | 14.470 | -0.460 | -3.1 | 2.5M |
| TEF | 96.770 | -3.070 | -3.1 | 584.2K |
| GFI | 14.840 | -0.470 | -3.1 | 5.9M |
| PTR | 181.810 | -5.730 | -3.1 | 897.5K |
| TS | 44.550 | -1.380 | -3 | 1.3M |
| DB | 127.580 | -3.880 | -3 | 517.2K |
| PBR | 107.330 | -3.260 | -2.9 | 5.9M |
| SNDK | 36.340 | -1.100 | -2.9 | 6.8M |
| IBN | 61.810 | -1.870 | -2.9 | 1.2M |
| BC | 18.200 | -0.550 | -2.9 | 1.7M |
| DOW | 43.110 | -1.280 | -2.9 | 6.5M |
| BBBY | 29.510 | -0.850 | -2.8 | 2.9M |
| CHA | 72.380 | -1.980 | -2.7 | 240.4K |
| NOK | 37.780 | -1.030 | -2.7 | 9.1M |
| WHR | 81.290 | -2.150 | -2.6 | 2M |
|
|
Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS |
| SYMB | DAY HIGH | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| LYO | 47.850 | 47.760 | +0.270 | +0.57 | 4.92M |
| KO | 64.320 | 63.810 | -0.280 | -0.44 | 9.50M |
|
|
Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS |
| SYMB | DAY LOW | LAST | CHG | %CHG | VOL |
| BDK | 71.950 | 73.310 | -6.820 | -8.51 | 5.68M |
| SWK | 48.150 | 48.930 | -2.120 | -4.15 | 1.39M |
| BC | 17.970 | 18.200 | -0.550 | -2.93 | 1.69M |
| KSS | 46.590 | 46.690 | -1.150 | -2.40 | 3.89M |
| SBUX | 21.050 | 21.250 | -0.250 | -1.16 | 10.48M |
|
|
Portfolio VOLUME |
| SYMB | LAST | %C | VOL | %ADSV |
| BDK | 73.310 | -8.5 | 5.7M | +601 |
| TT | 37.200 | +3.8 | 4.5M | +106 |
| GOL | 24.020 | -2 | 1.9M | +75 |
| EXC | 83.930 | -1.4 | 5.8M | +66 |
| CCL | 45.020 | +0.5 | 5.5M | +48 |
| COST | 68.490 | -0.1 | 7.7M | +46 |
| SWK | 48.930 | -4.2 | 1.4M | +44 |
| WHR | 81.290 | -2.6 | 2M | +44 |
| ADBE | 42.110 | -4.1 | 9.5M | +40 |
| LYO | 47.760 | +0.6 | 4.9M | +38 |
| PG | 73.900 | -0.7 | 13.6M | +28 |
| DIS | 33.010 | +0.8 | 12M | +20 |
| CVX | 92.020 | -1.1 | 11.1M | +18 |
| INTC | 26.290 | -3.2 | 68.7M | +18 |
| MFC | 40.470 | +0.1 | 1.3M | +17 |
| UTX | 76.690 | -1.2 | 5.1M | +16 |
| BBD | 31.440 | -2.3 | 5.9M | +16 |
| RIO | 32.900 | -2.1 | 25.8M | +14 |
| BC | 18.200 | -2.9 | 1.7M | +13 |
| DOW | 43.110 | -2.9 | 6.5M | +12 |
| AET | 57.850 | -0.2 | 3.2M | +11 |
| WAG | 36.590 | -0.2 | 9M | +11 |
| KO | 63.810 | -0.4 | 9.5M | +10 |
|
Analysts UPGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| NONE FOUND. | |||||||
|
|
Analysts DOWNGRADES |
| SYMB | ANALYST | OLD | NEW | BEFORE | AFTER | ||
| EXC | Deutsche Bank | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Hold |
| • PREVIOUS SESSION | |||||||
| QCOM | Merrill Lynch | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
| RIO | Goldman Sachs | --- |
|
--- | Buy |
|
Neutral |
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
At least one RSI value >70:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 63.81 | 95.66 | 88.40 | 66.27 | Sell alert (triggered 1 days ago [on 2007-12-14 at $63.81, +0.00% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| VIP | 38.63 | 89.84 | 80.96 | 61.21 | Sell alert (triggered 4 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $37.08, +4.18% chg], after a 4 day DZ) |
| PG | 73.90 | 86.46 | 74.33 | 51.18 | |
| MBT | 95.22 | 85.35 | 78.29 | 55.70 | Sell alert (triggered 4 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $93.80, +1.51% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| HDB | 131.58 | 85.04 | 65.73 | 43.80 | Sell alert (triggered 6 days ago [on 2007-12-07 at $138.74, -5.16% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| NOK | 37.78 | 83.94 | 52.66 | 35.38 | |
| TEF | 96.77 | 83.27 | 63.93 | 33.27 | |
| PBR | 107.33 | 83.14 | 68.67 | 57.19 | Sell alert (triggered 2 days ago [on 2007-12-13 at $110.59, -2.95% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| CHL | 87.11 | 83.09 | 53.69 | 38.77 | |
| RIMM | 105.98 | 81.47 | 50.86 | 51.51 | |
| LYO | 47.76 | 81.13 | 75.34 | 68.42 | Sell alert (triggered 5 days ago [on 2007-12-10 at $47.41, +0.74% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| GOOG | 689.96 | 80.90 | 62.84 | 45.65 | Sell alert (triggered 4 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $699.20, -1.32% chg], after a 2 day DZ) |
| COST | 68.49 | 79.06 | 59.82 | 45.08 | Sell alert (triggered 4 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $69.96, -2.10% chg], after a 5 day DZ) |
| AET | 57.85 | 78.10 | 69.65 | 56.61 | Sell alert (triggered 4 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $57.92, -0.12% chg], after a 4 day DZ) |
| ATVI | 26.72 | 77.05 | 75.69 | 70.64 | Distribution Zone (for 1 days) |
| WBK | 129.20 | 76.16 | 59.36 | 60.64 | |
| ABB | 27.68 | 75.02 | 49.98 | 32.89 | |
| NKE | 64.32 | 74.82 | 68.02 | 45.37 | |
| MICC | 112.43 | 74.74 | 58.80 | 36.52 | Sell alert (triggered 6 days ago [on 2007-12-07 at $124.14, -9.43% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| JNJ | 67.59 | 73.66 | 75.54 | 48.26 | Sell alert (triggered 6 days ago [on 2007-12-07 at $67.68, -0.13% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| BBD | 31.44 | 73.33 | 54.57 | 39.65 | Sell alert (triggered 5 days ago [on 2007-12-10 at $34.25, -8.20% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| EXC | 83.93 | 73.04 | 65.45 | 51.93 | Sell alert (triggered 4 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $83.51, +0.50% chg], after a 1 day DZ) |
| SU | 103.26 | 71.75 | 56.20 | 59.36 | |
| INTC | 26.29 | 71.67 | 53.92 | 41.56 | |
| RIO | 32.90 | 70.89 | 49.89 | 34.94 | |
| IBN | 61.81 | 70.34 | 61.19 | 48.32 | |
| OXPS | 31.63 | 66.46 | 76.95 | 67.04 | |
| ERTS | 58.08 | 61.29 | 58.79 | 72.03 |
At least one RSI value <30:
| Ticker | Last | RSI-7M | RSI-7W | RSI-7D | Zone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCP | 42.52 | 14.10 | 27.96 | 35.23 | |
| SBUX | 21.25 | 16.83 | 17.15 | 23.71 | Accumulation Zone (for 2 days) |
| BC | 18.20 | 18.86 | 26.58 | 23.47 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| KSS | 46.69 | 22.88 | 29.13 | 28.93 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| WAG | 36.65 | 23.49 | 27.57 | 37.82 | Buy alert (triggered 7 days ago [on 2007-12-05 at $36.46, +0.52% chg], after a 1 day AZ) |
| MCO | 38.48 | 24.60 | 31.55 | 49.54 | |
| BBBY | 29.51 | 24.92 | 28.29 | 28.23 | Accumulation Zone (for 1 days) |
| MU | 8.37 | 25.81 | 31.63 | 37.93 | |
| DNA | 68.43 | 27.29 | 27.42 | 33.78 | Buy alert (triggered 6 days ago [on 2007-12-07 at $68.49, -0.09% chg], after a 2 day AZ) |
| TGP | 29.45 | 29.16 | 32.37 | 38.50 | |
| TM | 106.30 | 33.75 | 36.91 | 29.31 | |
| TGT | 51.56 | 34.85 | 29.54 | 23.51 | |
| BDK | 73.31 | 35.77 | 27.21 | 22.31 | |
| DELL | 23.57 | 37.15 | 27.75 | 31.29 | |
| YHOO | 24.06 | 37.92 | 35.34 | 21.64 | |
| CCJ | 36.18 | 40.84 | 30.00 | 19.15 | |
| GFI | 14.84 | 40.95 | 29.19 | 27.64 | |
| TCK | 35.25 | 42.24 | 24.50 | 34.71 | |
| GE | 36.91 | 48.30 | 29.53 | 41.77 | |
| TS | 44.55 | 49.50 | 29.49 | 28.97 | |
| BHP | 71.07 | 63.11 | 41.28 | 29.71 | |
| CEO | 159.59 | 68.60 | 44.79 | 27.63 |
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section 2007_11_29 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF's) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's.
10 (energy: XLE)
15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)
25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)
30 (consumer staples: XLP)
35 (healthcare: IYH)
40 (financial: XLF)
45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)
50 (telecom: IYZ)
55 (utilities: XLU)
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:
Canada's equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 2.76 | 2.77 | 2.96 | 3.27 |
| 6 Month | 3.13 | 3.10 | 3.12 | 3.52 |
| 2 Year | 3.30 | 3.23 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| 3 Year | 3.25 | 3.18 | 3.09 | 3.45 |
| 5 Year | 3.62 | 3.56 | 3.49 | 3.82 |
| 10 Year | 4.23 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.25 |
| 30 Year | 4.66 | 4.64 | 4.57 | 4.60 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.06 | 3.05 | 3.11 | 3.31 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.08 | 3.09 | 3.10 | 3.31 |
| 2yr A | 3.39 | 3.37 | 3.38 | 3.43 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.32 | 3.30 | 3.28 | 3.44 |
| 5yr AA | 3.31 | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.41 |
| 5yr A | 3.42 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 3.54 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.80 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.86 |
| 10yr AA | 3.63 | 3.61 | 3.64 | 3.90 |
| 10yr A | 4.03 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 4.09 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.41 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 4.46 |
| 20yr AA | 4.20 | 4.16 | 4.16 | 4.65 |
| 20yr A | 4.65 | 4.69 | 4.74 | 4.99 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.52 | 4.36 | 4.26 | 4.47 |
| 2yr A | 4.97 | 4.63 | 4.72 | 4.69 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.78 | 4.67 | 4.60 | 4.67 |
| 5yr AA | 5.00 | 4.89 | 4.83 | 5.09 |
| 5yr A | 5.13 | 4.87 | 4.83 | 4.95 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.41 | 5.33 | 5.22 | 5.18 |
| 10yr AA | 5.64 | 5.59 | 5.45 | 5.76 |
| 10yr A | 6.03 | 5.86 | 5.70 | 5.74 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.73 | 5.60 | 5.52 | 5.62 |
| 20yr AA | 5.88 | 5.85 | 5.78 | 5.87 |
| 20yr A | 6.47 | 6.35 | 6.25 | 6.08 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:
Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:
The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:
GDX Weekly data:
The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:
Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:
Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week's trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
Daily British Pound Index:
Daily Japanese Yen Index:
Daily Canadian Dollar Index:
Other Tables
Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Table 9: Senior technology equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
btw, mail can be sent to me at bcara [at] billcara.com
Have a great weekend.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on December 15, 2007 10:18:02 AM | Category: Daily Report
Discourse
There goes the amerapaso.....Carlos Slim will close his CompUsa stores through out 2008. Bill's Mac will have to be purchased in those Apple outlet stores from now on.
No wonder Michael Dell decided to use Walmart for low end computer distributor......I knew Michael was a smart guy. Look for those low end Dell computers to get an adrenaline boost thru 08 via Walmart's mega retail monopoly.
European's are flocking to the USSA and trading there fiat Euro for the cheap fiat dollar.
Are we headed for the ameraeuro or perhaps the ameramark? Only time will tell.
How do I get tiny url headers?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/15/business/worldbusiness/15euro.html?ref=business
Posted by: bigwad ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
December 15, 2007 11:04 AM [link]
geckojb"
Thursday you wrote:
"golfer, where do you live again?"
Posted by: geckojb at December 13, 2007 11:04 AM"
I am now living in eastern Manitoba but spent most of my life (62 yrs of it) in Windsor, Ontario.
I have a good friend who lives in Cass City and I had a vacation property near Gaylord so I am familiar with the area.
bigwad:
Posted by: RonK at
December 15, 2007 12:17 PM [link]
Posted by: TradersQuest at
December 15, 2007 12:24 PM [link]
bigwad:
Posted by: RonK at
December 15, 2007 12:43 PM [link]
Re: discourse last week on using Korvus' RSI data to set up a "basket of stocks" to buy or sell, go long or short etc.
I set up a Dummy Account based on Alerts given by Korvus' RSI
Set up last weekend Dec 8th
Buy Alerts given on Dec 7
Cl dec14 Pr@Alert
HOV $8.23 $7.62
JCP $42.52 $43.53
MCO $38.48 $37.79
MU $8.37 $8.46
TGP $29.43 $29.04
WAG $36.59 $36.46
tot 163.62 162.90 up .004% vs mkt ???
Sell Alerts Dec 7
EXC $83.93 $85.26
HDB $131.58 $138.74
JNJ $67.59 $67.68
MBT $95.22 $96.83
MICC $112.43 $124.14
NKE $64.32 $65.57
PG $73.90 $74.00
VCP $31.15 $33.93
tot 660.12 686.15 up if sold or shorted
823.74 849.05 if bought the buys and
held the sells
I have done nothing else at this time i.e. haven't looked at the interdays etc to see if there were opportunities to trade them...stops etc
These tables just show where we are today based on the Alerts price on Dec 7th
The one thought that is running through my mind is if there is anything in this idea of utilizing a "basket" than this week's overall market volatilty must be kept in mind.
my apologies... the tables didn't show up as I set them up
The listing of CARA 100 RSI signals is probably a good way to support the argument that bullion related investments will make a good long term investment, as opposed to, lets say, mining companies with no exposure to gold.
Much of what I read lately is becoming increasingly anxiety ridden with a shorter term focus. Just the same, its difficult not to be frustrated if you are invested in gold juniors as I am.
The commodities story has fallen apart, all you need to do is head over to kitcometals.com and look at the historical charts for metals.
The exception is oil, which seems to want to continue its mania. (anywhere were there is a liquid market and price appreciation will be the focus, could be oil or currencies, or anything.)
On the other side of the coin, the credit deflation mania bandwagon is in full swing, where exposure to derivatives is totally exaggerated. You cannot get a fair assessment of what the value of these derivatives are, so what you are getting is a completely egotistical analysis and thus disinformation.
Derivatives are most probably not unlike options contracts or junk bonds at best. So the only real exposure is the original capital. The loss is the opportunity to play in some $500 tr. + if all of those calls were "in the money." But the ACTUAL EXPOSURE is some 10 times less, if you use 10X leverage as a rule of thumb.
The complication comes in when those options contracts(in a manner of speaking) were used as assets.
So what the banks are reporting in exposure to losses are probably the original capital investments.
Posted by: FranSix at
December 15, 2007 12:54 PM [link]
Craig:
9 to 5:30 ... 8 1/2 hrs is a pretty good sleep if it is straight thru
I am trying to stay up later so I do not wake up at 5 like you....slow changes necessary
I actually prefer rising early so I can get much of my reading etc in before distractions begin. But falling asleep at 8 to 9 at night can be a drag.
LOL! 5:30 is sleeping in! I'm up everyday at 4:30 to check international markets and read what the night owls like MikeNYC posted here overnight.
2nd, *Party* is a relative term. My daughter's birthday is tomorrow, she'll be 28. It's been a long time since I've seen a real party. My Friday night excitement was a glass of red wine, my leather recliner and a listen to Feist.
We're on the backroads alright. Stop by in July or we'll all have to go visit Bill or Kaimu someplace tropical!
Posted by: Craig at
December 15, 2007 3:47 PM [link]
2nd_ave
Re. your 9:54 p.m. post yesterday: I, too, follow the adventures of BMD. Bought 1K at 1.56 in September, should have sold a month later and watched it sink to practically nothing. Threw in the towel when it bounced back to 1.05 a week or so ago.
Your equipment is more sophisticated than Yahoo, which groups minute-by-minute totals, but my reading pretty much confirms yours, viz.:
10:04 32,200
10:37 18,600
11:25 10,000
13:39 16,500
14:52 32,200
All of which makes my palms a little sweaty. Sweaty palms frequently cost me money, but I’m thinking about reentering pre-market Monday morning. Sounds as if you’re tempted, too
My apologies for putting you in the Big Apple.
Posted by: jiggstoo at
December 15, 2007 4:00 PM [link]
Re the use of Buy/Sell Alerts, I do intend to elaborate on this system in my next book, ie, if enough of you buy the first one. :-)
But you are on to something here. When the the alert system breaks down on the one side, you obviously have more time to let the market come to you in that direction, and so the decisions you make will tend to be superior. At least, this is a system. Otherwise many of you are flying blind.
btw, really enjoying the break today. Waiting for the pc house doctor to show up to remove my laptop -- the one with all the files on it -- for repairs. Meanwhile I have another system.
Have a great weekend, many of you in the snowbelt I know are wishing you were in The Bahamas today. Your Nor'Easter may even get down here to Nassau. The temp may even drop to 70.
I know for a fact people here don't go to work if it hits the 50's. Too cold. :-)
Posted by: Bill Cara at
December 15, 2007 4:16 PM [link]
Greetings, all.
I have been thinking about taking a position in Pinetree Capital (PNP.TO). As many of you know, it is a small Canadian merchant bank that specializes in buying into natural resource, junior miners, energy (and alternative energy) companies (all small caps) and lending their expertise, capital and contacts. In a sense another Hunter-Dickenson start up. Check out their holdings at www.pinetreecapital.com. I already own a few of their "babies", but thinking of selling those positions to reduce company risk, diversify, and take advantage of their experience and management.
Now here is my question.
Since May (you know sell in May...) this stock has been decimated. Fromm 16 to 4. I can find no news to justify this except the general sell off in the sector.
Globeinvestor.com has their most recent EPS at $2.32 and book value at $4.23, a return on equity of 76% and this stock is selling for under $4. in the space that most of us consider very promising.
Please tell me if I am missing something because, otherwise I am going to start building a position as soon as I see that the knife has stopped falling.
Can't believe I am thinking about this on a Saturday evening. Obviously no party animal here.
Sleep well all, you have friends.
Posted by: Rigdon at
December 15, 2007 6:01 PM [link]
Wasn't Pinetree one of the companies that was singled out when everyone became worried about bad paper? I think some of the miners held paper from Pinetree...
Posted by: northvan at
December 15, 2007 7:27 PM [link]
Re: gold miners.
If gold gets dragged down with the broad stock market, when gold bottoms and starts to rally you can bet that I will be adding mining shares, and if timed correctly, those will probably be the best trades of the year.
Posted by: g034 at
December 15, 2007 9:30 PM [link]
Hello northvan,
I recall that the lender was Conventree or something similar, not Pinetree.
Posted by: kiron at
December 15, 2007 9:42 PM [link]
Pinetree- thought about taking a position back in October when researching Noront, when it was in the 5-6 range...now that it's at the 52-wk low, i'll probably add a position...
jiggstoo- the 'adventures' of BMD is exactly how i feel about it also...how a company sitting on a mountain of high-grade limestone in the midst of oil sands companies who need/will need tons of it can manage to perform so poorly is a real mystery...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
December 15, 2007 10:09 PM [link]
Thanks Kiron. Yes, it was Coventree.
RE: Pinetree
One caveat is that there has been a ton of insider selling over the last year and not a single insider buy.
CEO $-26,503,360
CFO $-773,407
OFFICER $-891,249
DIRECTOR $-3,159,911
Total Selling $-31,327,927
Net Selling $-31,327,927
Whenever options were exercised, the resulting shares were immediately sold.
Posted by: northvan at
December 15, 2007 10:25 PM [link]
Harry Sch.
Jim Snc.
BC.......
Any order: Scout, Warrior, General.
Predict, engage, confirm.
Moon, Sun, Stars.
Majors in alignment.
Don't wait for a truck to hit you.
This is it!
Posted by: Jaketh at
December 15, 2007 11:21 PM [link]
Either I'm so sleepy that I can't make out that last post or Jaketh has been hitting the eggnog too hard. :-)
Posted by: Zenob at
December 15, 2007 11:38 PM [link]
Hope everyone is having a good weekend. I just realized something that is quite important for the 10Q currently avial for HRB.; it's not unaudited.
http://tinyurl.com/3yylor
(look on page 1 under " CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS"
Anyone know more about this? Are they required to have an audited version out by Monday's conf call?
Posted by: NYUgrad at
December 15, 2007 11:50 PM [link]
i meant it is not audited. too much wine
Posted by: NYUgrad at
December 15, 2007 11:54 PM [link]
I would be very concerned with metals prices PRIOR to making any moves on miners or merchant banking in the sector.
My preference would be Quest Capital(QC.TO), though taking on Endeavour (EDV.TO) or another such as Longview(LV.TO) might be something to take a look at.
But generally, I would speculate that the gold sector will be favoured, though this has not proven true in the last year.
Posted by: FranSix at
December 16, 2007 12:22 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
ON POG PREDICTIONS
I read a lot of prognosticators from the 1970s and 1980s talking about a repeat of the 1980 POG price and some base current chart movements on past chart movements. While that may provide a partial view into market action I believe this time will be "apples to oranges"! This is why I am so adamant about a short supply issue with the ETFs like GLD. The number one difference between the gold market now and 1980 I never hear is "the participants" ... Back in 1980 most of the gold market was made up of US-Comex and UK-LME participants, parts of Europe(France, Germany, Swiss, etc) and the Tokyo Gold(TOCOM did not start until 1984). That was it ... None of China, India, Russia and half of the EU(under Communist control)were involved. Now the populations of the "Emerging Markets" and the "revamped" Communist countries are all participating and most are now very eager buyers of gold. To me the dimensions on the demand side have changed drastically while the supply side has made small advances that are now stagnating due to inflationary pressures on costs of mining asidee from strikes and environmental issue shut downs. Its hard to compare the past demand/supply based POG charts of the past to those now days. Look how many days now the POG has closed above $800USD! Right now the average American can't even spell "gold" yet! As close as they come is "G-L-D"! That my friends, as I have said in the past, is NOT GOLD! Food for thought regarding TA charts ...
Rigdon ... To my mind Pinetree Cap is no Hunter Dickenson(HD Group). Pinetree buys mining shares like a Mutual Fund would whereas Hunter Dickenson developes mines from claim stage to prodcution then sells them. The Larry Reaugh Group(LR Group)is more like a mini HD Group ...
Wow, Just took the dog for a quick walk outside, actually it was more of a step outside go 'holy crap' step back inside and telling the dog to hurry up out there,it's 24 degrees fahrenheit, 8 with wind chill, high today is going to be 26 not counting wind chill. Coming here I feel like my education is on an exponential curve that will hopefully allow me to kick back on a sunny island some day. For now, it's sitting in front of the wood stove with the dog watching the snow come down. Enjoy your weekend guys.
Posted by: Green arrow at
December 16, 2007 7:40 AM [link]
kaimu:
I agree with your view of Pinetree.
I use it to see what and how much they are investing in.... almost like a filter
I also look at insider buying in the companies they take a stake in to see if any the principals of Pinetree are putting their own money in them.
I think the principals of PNP are building a "warchest" with all their sells..... If I recall they were big buyers in the past and not just taking their options.... could be wrong but..
Green arrow:
Compared to some of my days at -42 without wind chill you are in the tropics.
This is another reason I do not own a dog.
Correction to "This is another reason I do not own a dog."
The dog referred to is of the 4 legged variety not to be confused with ..... well you get the drift.
:>)
FWIW:
Article on Income Splitting for tax purposes for Canadians on pensions.
Thanks, Kaimu, I will do some more research.
I have a question for you.
I am holding small positions in MOR and CNU that are underwater. Thinking about selling for tax reasons. What is your present view of the prospects for these two?
Appreciate your opinion.
TIA
Posted by: Rigdon at
December 16, 2007 8:57 AM [link]
"For now, it's sitting in front of the wood stove with the dog watching the snow come down." Hey I could think of plenty WORSE things to be consigned to!
2008 election question?
What if those Diebold touch screen voting machines aren't replaced for the upcoming elections, and George Bush mysteriously wins 51% of the vote again. Will he be the first president to serve 3 consecutive terms in office by proxy? Or will those spineless senators have a 4 year inquiry and appoint the runner up as President upon the expiration date of his/her term?
I'd feel more comfortable if my voting machine gave me a piece of paper with a voting # and my SS# with all my votes marked. A voting register could be checked either via phone or internet to see just how my vote was counted.
Posted by: bigwad at
December 16, 2007 10:09 AM [link]
jaketh- making notes to yourself, or something for us to decipher?
if i had to guess, Harry Schultz, who had this to say back in september:
"With an election coming, the Fed went for bandaging a slipping economy which affects votes and sacrificing the dollar, which is harder for the public to measure. Big rate cuts, like this 50 points, are always an act of desperation. Such cuts have usually been followed by recessions. More cuts will follow. It set the future in cement for the U.S. dollar. Cement overshoes. Currency debasement never produces wealth. Fed knows this, but took a political decision. Nothing new about that. Much higher inflation now guaranteed ... My tentative targets (by end of 2008): 14% (inflation), $1,600 (gold) and $45 (silver)."
"Gold is starting into the most exciting part of its long-term bull market, the so-called second (and monetary) phase. Herein we normally see the biggest percentage gains, matched by biggest corrections as we saw in the '70s gold rush: in 1974, gold corrected 25% in 4months (most gold shares fell 50-70%); in 1975-76 gold fell 50% (most shares fell 70-90%) and took 2 1/2 years to get back to old high before then rocketing to new highs. But that makes for great trading opportunities. This is the phase where the BIG money is made, by those who go with the tides."
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
December 16, 2007 10:17 AM [link]
I found an interesting analysis on comparison of hui and gdm from an oz site
http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal29.php
Posted by: ns6010 at
December 16, 2007 10:31 AM [link]
Hi,
Greetings from a cold European moning!
Looking at the charts, the week ahead promises a visit to the August and November lows again on the broad market indices, with the Russell 2000 being the worst looking chart.
However, if, as, and when that happens, I will once more buy the selloff, simply because I feel that it will take something more serious to crack down those resistance levels.
Having said that, I also remind you all that I remain 90% in cash or cash equivalent and that I am trading options over the broad market with a nimble strategy.
So, the summary is: stay out during most of the week, and towards the end of the week buy the dip, if it occurs.
Looking forward to the WIR.
Season's Greetings to all!
Posted by: maromatics at
December 16, 2007 10:35 AM [link]
I am watching Mitt Romney on Meet the Press.
These people are all so sadly disappointing and lacking in leadership and scope.
I'm noticing Jon Stewart and the Daily Show are influencing our news. Tim Russert used several before and after videotapes that revealed Romney for what he is. The tapes make him look less than honest. He showed Russert he could look you in the eye and lie with a big grin on his face. I'm glad to see the press doing their job a little better and becoming more confrontational.
The politicians win and we lose the shell game every time they distract us with guns, abortions and taxes. Tell me the fed and treasury aren't killing us with the worst tax of all, the hidden tax of inflation, and lying about the rate of that. Do wealthy people worry about abortions or their guns? I don't think they do.
Are we easily distracted or what???
Next Sunday on Meet the Press: Congressman Ron Paul.
Posted by: Craig at
December 16, 2007 10:38 AM [link]
Today is the Tea Party donation day for those interested. So far it's getting off to a pretty good start.
Posted by: Hoosier at
December 16, 2007 10:50 AM [link]
As always, Prieur's weekly roundup provides an excellent complement to Bill's WIR.
Required reading for this N2S:
Posted by: number2son at
December 16, 2007 11:09 AM [link]
craig
I seen the Meet the Press segment this am. and my mind was taken back to the C-Span show last week for the Des Moines Register Republican debate.
What caught my attention is a continuous spat between Huckabee(sp) and Mitt. Huckabee got way off his rhetorical question and said something to the effect, Mitt Romney's corporation was 50% owned by some Chinese corporation that is trying to buy out one of America's top defense contractors. There was no reply, and Huckabee was cut short of further comment.
I'd like to know what that statement was all about.
I did read somewhere that Mitt Romney was 10 times richer then any other presidential candidate to date. These so called elections could be made into a good movie before this charade is concluded. The trailer scenes will probably be the most watched though.
Posted by: bigwad at
December 16, 2007 11:11 AM [link]
ns6010 - GDX correlation to HUI
interesting post. It's amazing how indices differ, and how FEW people bother to take a look inside. I wonder how the departures from cap-weighting are justified by the index makers.
Worden's Hemmscott/Media General industry groups are not capitalization-weighted, but "square-root-of-cap weighted" which is a systematic way of ensuring that a few mega-caps don't dominate a group index (as FCX does 21% of XAU!)
ns6010 - 6 stocks >56% of GDX:
ABX, AU, AUY, GG, KGC, NEM.
Hey everyone, I've been lurking here for some time now, but haven't felt like I could contribute much until Rigdon brought up Pinetree Capital. Fransix then mentioned some others, like Longview Capital, which I've traded a little but never sat on, but nobody's yet mentioned Augen Capital (AUG.V), another merchant bank that's similar, which I've held a core position in for over a year. If anyone here's familiar with it, I'd really appreciate your thoughts on it.
northvan mentioned PNP's utter lack of inside buying, whereas the head of AUG, David Mason, has bought on six different occasions, between Oct 26 and Dec 11, with the last insider disposition being on Oct 2.
David's latest interview was on BNN, a few weeks ago, where he mentions two important things: AUG is not involved with the sub-prime mess whatsoever, and AUG has plenty of cash on hand in case there's a fire-sale.
http://broadband.bnn.ca/bnn/?vid=22485
They own 23.8% of Augen Gold too, which should be going public pretty soon.
One negative thing about this company is its lack of transparency when it comes to the portfolio, although some people accept that on the premise that it's better if they can accumulate under the radar. I haven't seen an analysis proving that, however. Also, according to the technical analyst that management has hired to report on Augen's PPS movement, a serious, long-term sell signal has been given (as per his November report). It's now trading between 31-34 cents, down from its 72 cent high in June. It's down on weak volume, though.
Is anyone else here following this company?
Posted by: Leander at
December 16, 2007 12:39 PM [link]
Mish continues to make strong contrarian inflation arguments calling for deflation to happen. I lean slightly inlfatinonary outlook but am going to keep an open mind to this. Here's his latest missive:
"The Fed is trying their best to act as if inflation is a concern. If inflation was a big concern 10 year treasuries would not be at 4.2% nor would LIBOR be 75 basis points above the Fed Funds Rate. Most of all, if inflation was a big concern the Fed would not be cutting rates at all, let alone playing the absurd games they have been playing with the Term Auction Facility (See Fed Knowingly Takes Suspect Collateral in TAF Program).
We can argue all day long about whether deflation is here or is coming, but this is what we know right now.
There has never been a hyperinflation in history where housing prices declined. If anyone can find such an occurrence outside a war zone, please email it to me.
Those who really believe hyperinflation is coming should buy California real estate.
The leverage in real estate is higher than you can get in gold. You can buy a house with 0% down or close to it. It's hard to buy gold on 0% down.
Credit contractions and falling real estate prices are associated with deflation, not inflation.
The ability and willingness of lenders to extend credit is rapidly sinking.
Except in the longest of timeframes, history shows gold is a better deflation hedge than an inflation hedge. The reason is simple: Gold is money. Money does well in deflation. Perhaps there is another big pullback first, perhaps not, but the hyperinflation argument for owning gold does not hold water looking ahead.
Credit hyperinflation has already taken place. Those seeking to find it need only look in the rear view mirror"
Posted by: geckojb at
December 16, 2007 12:48 PM [link]
Rigdon,Kaimu,2nd ave et al
Questions on goldminer strategy, LIHR, pinetree:
Just perusing posts...so many these days,
per pretty much Bill's guidance I think...wait for gold price to go down, and then good chance of miners bottoming.
From late september seeking alpah, re-iterates a link that bill shared from RBC
"
RBC’s top picks and outperform-rated stocks include Anatolia Minerals Development Ltd., Goldcorp (GG), Newcrest Mining Ltd., Lihir Gold Ltd. (LIHR), Jaguar and Greystar Resources Ltd. IAMGOLD is its only outperform-rated gold stock as a leverage play."
...I've been watching LIHR...shot up against the downrtrend of major miners, then plummetted on lowering 2007 forecast...I suppose the tick up were those betting for a better news event. Anymore thoughts on LIHR...anyone?...could become a good buy....what I like is that it's mines are in australia....safe geopolitically.
...re Pinetree capital...do you think there is merit to this one as a way to distribute risk for junior miners...and, wait for it stop going free fall...seems like others are wondering the same..those of us not quite as knowledgeable as kaimu in being able to do dd???
Posted by: jasper at
December 16, 2007 3:13 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
geckojob ... I do not dispute Mish's example of housing prices deflating but is that true "deflation" or is that falling demand based on over speculation and excess supply? The demand is ebbing because job paychecks are not keeping up with inflated housing prices and fewer people are willing to take on a 30year debt commitment in such an environment as falling housing prices. He also does not take into consideration that consumer debt in other areas like credit cards and car loans are at saturation point, but is that deflationary in terms of a money supply? I think it is deflationary in terms of pricing and credit but there is still plenty of spending and credit in the system that is growing which is causing money supply to increase and that is inflationary. Just the interst on US debt is $500bilUSD, half a trillion and growing! When the US government collapses and abandons Iraq and foreing aid and renegs on the baby-boomers and dumps the big US Banks and homeowners and stops pumping the US stock markets and buying its own debt in the Treasuries then I will begin to believe monetary deflation is beginning.
What Mish needs to address in my opinion is the amount of constant monetary inflation that needs to occur to cover this excessive amount of debt that continues to grow. He has to look beyond just housing and consumer debt and he needs to mainly look at government debt! Conversely Mish has to show me a period in history when a War was deflationary!
I do not doubt there could be deflation in our future but not right now. Not while our BIG GOVERNMENT is pumping up spending and our money supply!
What he says about gold not being a hedge during periods of hyperinflation is pure bunk ... study the Weimar Republic and look what an ounce of gold was worth. He also has to explain to me why the US government still counts its gold reserves based on $42 per ounce and not the current spot price? He takes nothing into account regarding government manipulation of all monetary and gold data. When you have a corrupt monetary system then corrupt data and fraud is a given!
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Is there a "tell" on the bear....in addition to Bill's warning...I know someone who has been successful by watching inventory of second homes and for that bullish argument about global growth and sovereign wealth I suggest the following and am ready to be shot down:
JJA (food prices).
and industrial metals/materials..FSDPX(fid select) and XME(metals/mining),
and JJM(etn,industrial metals..
Posted by: jasper at
December 16, 2007 4:02 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
kaimu...
You are verrrrrrrrry intunitive!
You are the first person in over 11 years, to catch [December 14, 2007 9:53 PM]the significance of my user name.
Good job.
Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at
December 16, 2007 4:13 PM [link]
Many of the stocks that I am now out of like WAG, INFY..... all have the same chart of lower highs and lower lows and it looks like that will continue. It just follows into Bill's WIR thinking.
Posted by: stktrader at
December 16, 2007 4:24 PM [link]
OK Isa....,
"For since the beginning of the world men have not heard, nor understood by the ear, nor has the eye seen any God except You, what he has prepared for him who waits for Him"
Posted by: stktrader at
December 16, 2007 4:28 PM [link]
stktrader
:^)
And I wait!
Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at
December 16, 2007 4:34 PM [link]
HB&B,
I know that we can look to the real estate industry, mortgage bankers and Wall Street in concert with the FED for the housing bust, but we must also remember that even though "they" made a lot of money on "the deal", so did millions of homeowners that bought and sold prior to 2005. I can think of a friend that now lives in Colorado and retired as a Teamsters truck driver. He came to California with his wife from Denver and bought a home next to mine for 700K. He sold it two years later for 1.235 million. After home improvements and a broker fee to sale the home he generated enough money to move back to Western Colorado and buy a new 3400 sf home outright. Not bad for a truck driver.
Posted by: stktrader at
December 16, 2007 4:43 PM [link]
Jasper
I don't follow Anatolia, Newcrest or Greystar, but I believe they are pure exploration companies at the moment. Although I own some of these speculations, my present thinking is to restrict future purchases to juniors that have proven reserves, are actually mining, and preferable making money.
I would think the way to re-enter the miners would be to watch the Majors like Lihir and GG. Institutional $ will first flow into these when the correction is over. If you were really nimble I would think you could buy a few, book profits and then roll into junior producers. After a nice ride in these, then might be time to take a swing at the junior explorers. Of course it is all a matter of timing. Diabolical.
As for Pinetree, your thinking is identical to mine. Obviously we have to wait until the sell off is over and indicators and volume look up, but then, I would think PNP might offer diversification + exposure to some great opportunities. An intereting way to play it might be through their warrants (PNP.WT) have a look.
Kaimu's remarks also pointed me to EDV.TO a larger cap merchant bank that might be a safer way to play this trade.
Thanks, Kaimu.... still waiting to hear what you presently think about CNU and MOR.
Posted by: Rigdon at
December 16, 2007 5:30 PM [link]
rigdon:
We do seem to be on the same page. Hope that bodes ok for you...humour attempt. Fransix mentioned endeavor...did kaimu do also? Frank Holmmes is involved. Interesting. I do wish that I had caught this before...I have been accumulating some shares and except for ano.to under water. Most disappointed in LIHR. Thanks again for your reponse..
And Fransix...ag sector is still strong...see JJA..did you say commodities have collapsed?
Posted by: jasper at
December 16, 2007 5:56 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
Rigdon ... Well, I still own them and have not sold any of my shares. My past opinions of them have not changed. This sector is called "junior explorer" not "junior dotcom"! It takes longer to drill holes and get assays than it does to start a website!
MOLYCOR GOLD-MOR.V/MLYFF.PK is part of the LR Group and I expect some assays soon. Larry Reaugh is very qualified to find mines. They have a wide range of properties in gold/silver/platinum/moly ... While copper and the other base metals have sold off this year moly has risen since Jan 2007 and is still in the $30USD range at $32.50USD. Many new uses for moly upcoming and it is being used extensively in the new nuclear power plants scheduled for construction over the coming years.
CONTINUUM-CNU.V/CUUEF.PK still holds a large land position in a past producing mining district. The agreement for Natividad was not cancelled just suspended until further negotiations. Once it is re-negotiated and an agrement signed the price will rise back up double from where it is, but,like KRY, I have yet to find out any info on that subject that is reliable.
Nothing has changed fundamentally about these two except some of the past shareholders have sold.
A Cara 100 selection is Royal Bank of Canada (USA), and the symbol is . It had a long run up and is currently retracing in an relatively ordinary manner but is not an "accumulation" at this point, though it might become so at least on the daily and weekly rs(7)'s in the next few months.
My question for those who can read financial disclosures with ease is whether in fact RY looks relatively solid from mortgage bond risk. In the attached link, I see some mortgage bond exposure which seems to be freely disclosed, and there is of course a statement of reassurance to investors.
Any opinions on RY earnings conference call?
http://tinyurl.com/254dky
Posted by: spot at
December 16, 2007 6:27 PM [link]
Jasper
RE:Lihir Gold
I have been following this stock recently and done a little background research. One of the things I really like is that the company owns 36 MW of geothermal power production and is planning to expand beyond that, which is used to power gold mining operations. They have less exposure to rising fuels and they are able to sell carbon credits.
Posted by: BillySundance at
December 16, 2007 6:29 PM [link]
From Bill's WIR:
"I will give you a heads up. As the price of oil recedes in the next year, the price of the stock XOM will fall too (along with the rest of the equity market), you will start to read all kinds of nonsense that Exxon is a lousy company, yada yada. Laugh at them. Call them clowns. Tell them you sold XOM at 94 and that you still think it’s a world-class company and that you are just waiting for the stock to hit the Cara Accumulation Zone (AZ) before you’ll even venture a peak at it again."
Once again, a great WIR. What he is repeating ad infinitum is that we trade PRICES. I support his opinion of the Bear being here or on the edge of blowing the door down. Hopefully that is true if only for the ability to many of you to start anew. When the daily, weekly and monthly RSI's bottom after a Bear is finished with all the porridge, the Bull will be in the house. Then, that list of world class companies (Cara stocks) should be bought on an individual basis. That is how the big money is made in a way that is has far less risk than others. Buy low, sell high. All it takes is the patience to wait for set-ups, a trait many newbies lack.
After the 2000 bear started, how many community members had their broker tell them not to sell because their stocks were high quality and that they were in it for the long run? Enough said.
Sure, I posted a long trade a few weeks ago (DOW), with my reasons, but when the stock popped and I had a 13% return on the trade, I sold it. Truth be told, I thought to myself; "boy are you one lucky sob! Take the gains and run!" On that trade, Bill even commented that "there is always a bull somewhere". I ask you; why try to sail into the wind when you can have it at your back?
I know many of you are Investors Business Daily disciples of buying high and selling higher, but let me ask you; if the broad market turns down, which stocks are the riskiest to own, those that are in the distribution zone, or those that are in the accumulation zone? Sure, I have bought on momentum many times and the IBD strategy is great in a bull market, but imo, today's environment calls for a focus on return OF capital vs. a return ON capital. If you have been afraid of missing out on a rally, let me ask you this; which has done better this year; the S&P or Long Term Treasury Bonds? If you don't know the answer, you haven't been paying attention.
For newbies, I recommend that you cut and paste this post and read it until it sinks in. Not because of the brilliance of the poster, but because of the brilliance of the strategy that Bill advises. This will be reinforced many times in Bill's daily missives. If you don't have anything else to do but trade, I recommend that you read all of the information that Bill has at the top of his blog. Then read the Pring book on TA that he recommends. I think there is another book that is available also...I'm waiting for my signed copy ;-)
I have also posted that I believe that there will be a liquidity push that may lead the broad stock market higher to year end, but if it does, how large will the return be? Am I nimble enought to trade the move? How large will my losses be if the Big Bad Bear is at our door? Which is the prudent strategy?
So am I correct in being worried about the market? Well, I just think back to watching the President Bush Dog and Pony Show and wondering to myself; did he really just say something like; "just call 1-800-hope that's 1-800-hope..."
Have a great holiday season!
Posted by: g034 at
December 16, 2007 6:39 PM [link]
Re: Inflation/Deflation
Do we know how the totals of outstanding debt compare between US govt debt and the "subprime slime". It seems to me that there is a contraction of credit in the "private" market, as paper is refused as collateral for fresh loans, and it is this contraction that has the CBs worried, because if they can't stop it, it will become self perpetuating and there won't be enough helicopters. Thus I agree with Kaimu if US government debt is greater than private debt, but if Private debt is greater, then I think deflation a distinct possibility.
Also, since much of the subprime slime is denominated in dollars, and is "disappearing" then doesn't that mean that the supply of dollars is decreasing, and perhaps explains the recent dollar strength?
Re: Lihir Gold - I was under the impression their mine was in PNG - can someone who know supply some more details about their operations please.
Posted by: cyderman at
December 16, 2007 6:46 PM [link]
BSundance
Thanks...i'm gonna work on getting more info...thanks for sharing....
slow number of discourses....t'em gunslingers are getting their rest for the week ahead.
Posted by: jasper at
December 16, 2007 6:46 PM [link]
Thanks, kahuna, appreciate your response.
I think the LR Group lends credibility to MOR's story. I listened recently to a webcast by Larry where he expressed frustration at getting lab results back. He sounded very enthusiastic (as he would, of course), I wonder if Bill has any opinion of Mr. Reaugh's reputation/credibility. He seems to be an honest, experienced player (jockey). Bill probably has a story!!
CNU has a number of past producing properties. I like the story of buying proven mines that only closed because PM's dropped to ridiculous values due to (I think) manipulation.
The fact that they are a multiple mine holder is comforting.
Appreciate your input.
Cheers.
Posted by: Rigdon at
December 16, 2007 7:01 PM [link]
jasper- think back to the (many) corrections we had in gold/miners in '05 and '06...every single one took prices way below what i (we) thought possible, right->i'm sticking to trading around one or two positions until the day i'm afraid to jump in->that will be signal to jump in...
until then, why not consider buying a few index puts or putting 10-25% into some of the ultrashorts, and enjoy the ride down?
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
December 16, 2007 8:04 PM [link]
2nd ave, Having never bought puts, I take a huge step backwards. I am poised to buy ultrashorts before buying anything else long. 10%...which is quite a chunk....if it's something to hold for at least one week or more. As always, glad to get your (contrary) thoughts.
Posted by: jasper at
December 16, 2007 8:35 PM [link]
never having bought puts is no reason not to look into it, right->with fidelity you will need to fill out an options trading application...it was maromatics who introduced (to me, at least) the acronym VaR (value at risk) last fall as short-hand for the concept of limiting the amount of capital in play, which fits nicely with your slight-to-moderate risk-averse profile...
if you're going to place 10% into ultrashorts, would suggest diversifying into 4-5 different sectors/regions (the profunds website would be a good place to start), and then (as usual) averaging in 20%-25% at a time on weakness...
but honestly, being in cash right now is not at all a bad idea either...
Posted by: 2nd_ave at
December 16, 2007 9:00 PM [link]
Here are a few interesting points from "Weekly Investor Alert" by US Global Investors (GROW):
"Hedge funds that dabbled in mining stocks have seen significant losses in recent months from a variety of credit related factors. This has prompted several liquidations from distressed sellers. It has been a buyers market, at the right price."
I guess that explains why the mining (especially the junior exploration) shares were falling recently. When this was happening in August, I loaded up on these shares big time and sold them in October for a handsome profit. The current correction seems to be taking longer to unwind, but I am still keeping all my juniors, waiting for the next large move.
Here are a couple of positive points for gold:
" - California Public Employees' Retirement System (Calpers) announced this week it may shift as much as $29 billion out of stocks and bonds and move the proceeds into investments such as commodities. That may offer better inflation protection.
- In an interesting trend, eight of Russia’s ten wealthiest men have shifted assets into gold related investments."
Posted by: David at
December 16, 2007 9:08 PM [link]
ALOHA !!
cyderman ... Why does it matter if it is private or government? Isn't it all US Pesos? Isn't it true that the more US Pesos created the less the purchasing power of the US Peso, thus its value is less and thus monetary inflation causes price increases?
Debt denominated in US Pesos is still US Pesos. It does not matter if citizens own the debt or JP Morgan or the US government? Debt is debt ... Its just that the World is awash in more US Pesos than any other fiat money. We are the KINGS OF DEBT ... Wall Street likes to call DEBT ... "liquidity" now ... Its DEBT! DEBT denominated in US Pesos must be paid in US Pesos! This is why the FED quit reporting the M3. The best we have now is the M3b or some are using MZM, but no matter money supply is expanding not contracting! Would they need to quit reporting M3 if they knew money supply would shrink, which would cause the US Peso to rise in value?
Come on guys ... who is kidding who? My US governemnt has been at War and spending and printing like a drunken sailor ever since I have been alive and that's way over 40 years now! Nothing changes with this two party aristocracy. I am convinced they, the Powers That Be, the elite bankers and politicians, want the US Peso to die a horrible death so that they can buy up what's left of your wealth and my wealth and our Father's wealth and our Father's Father's wealth for centavos on the Peso(pennies on the dollar) ... like Civil War carpetbaggers!
What Mish needs to show us all is historical evidence of a successful FIAT monetary system ... period! If our money fails none of us will give a rats ass about inflation or deflation any more! All our US Pesos are running on now is the fumes of "past confidence" which is vaporizing faster than at any time I have ever known ... The failing major US Banks are a RED FLAG! Where is the confidence in our money if our banks fail? Its all one-in-the-same!
Hello ... we're way past the economics here ... Its all about the MONEY ... FIAT MONEY historically always becomes worthless! Only GOLD ... not GLD ... has value and is never worthless and never defaults and its been that way for 6000 years! Those in charge do not want you to see past your noses much less past the curtains that hide The Wizard!
GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...
Re: AUG.V
Thank you so much for reminding me about something I had forgotten for some time.
AUG.V looks like a good play on the face of it, seems favourable to its peers.
Will add David Mason's commments to the GBN.V thread.
Here are David Mason's comments on GBN.V (its old hat by now)
My comments this week for GBN.V, which is mostly about fundamentals regarding the possible role reversal between the € and the $, but Mr. Mason's comments about the Bingo deposit are turning out to be quite correct:
Posted by: FranSix at
December 16, 2007 9:23 PM [link]
Are commodities a bubble ready to burst?
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:07am GMT 17/12/2007
Peak oil, peak metals, and this year peak food. Every bookshop has a corner warning that mankind will soon outrun the basic resources of the globe.
Posted by: moneygenie at
December 16, 2007 9:28 PM [link]
Re: peak
Looking for a Euro rate cut for some time since the run on Northern Rock and various reports from Germany, Spain, Switzerland about exposure to commercial paper. The Bank of England DID cut rates, which is probably a precursor to Euro zone cuts.
So far, the Euro continues to hold court, though a rate cut would mean dollar competition and thus the inevitable peak of everything would be set in.
Commodities are dependant on debt trade as much as options so any off-warehouse stores of commodities will have to be entered on the books.
Posted by: FranSix at
December 16, 2007 10:01 PM [link]
Asia currently down overnight -
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Hang Seng -2.3%
Taiwan -2.35%
the rest better
Gold +$4.20 usd
Posted by: g034 at
December 16, 2007 10:06 PM [link]
S&P futures down 3.4 (delayed)
Posted by: g034 at
December 16, 2007 10:10 PM [link]
Aim miners power ahead like the big boys
By Ben Bland
Last Updated: 12:06am GMT 17/12/2007
While consolidation among the large-cap mining groups has grabbed all the recent headlines, the junior miners on Aim have motored ahead relatively unnoticed………
“Interestingly though, despite the prominence of the mining sector on Aim, the biggest global market for junior miners is Canada's TSX Venture Exchange.
The Venture Exchange, which is Toronto's junior stock market, has more than 1,000 miners listed on it. In the first nine months of the year, 74 mining companies floated on the Venture Exchange, compared with just 25 new issuers on Aim.
But many of these miners are genuine tiddlers, with just one potential project, according to Dr Williams. "By contrast, to get any attention on Aim, you must already have a decent project as it's a development-stage market," he said.
The key to a successful Aim mining investment is to look for good management, he said. "When you invest in an Aim junior miner you're investing in the management really - it's they who will decide on the right projects."
http://tinyurl.com/26or3f
Posted by: moneygenie at
December 16, 2007 10:29 PM [link]
Asia down sharply. Notably Hang Seng before lunch. looking like a down open tomorrow.
Posted by: NYUgrad at
December 16, 2007 10:58 PM [link]
Re AUG.V,
I know David Mason personally, and have a high regard for his professionalism. When I worked on Bay Street 20 years ago, David was the senior mining analyst for one of Canada's biggest brokerage firms. I know him to be an honest (and prudent) guy. If I have any reservation, it's that the size of his company/Fund is quite small, which may lead to liquidity issues. Would I help him build it up? In a heart beat.
Posted by: Bill Cara at
December 16, 2007 11:39 PM [link]
ALOHA Kaimu,
"Hello ... we're way past the economics here ... Its all about the MONEY ... FIAT MONEY historically always becomes worthless! Only GOLD ... not GLD ... "
Just got to ask how we should configure ourselves if another 1933 occurs: namely, GOLD is confiscated at a fixed price.
If that's indeed the last non-fiat currency left when all-hell-breaks-loose, what's to stop the Feds from looking over my shoulder when I open my safe deposit box?
Posted by: omphalos at
December 17, 2007 12:21 AM [link]
Instead of a safe deposit box, how about a nice sturdy lock box under the bed? Just make sure you don't tell ANYBODY that it's there.
That's where mine will be going. In the fire proof box with the important paperwork.
Posted by: Zenob at
December 17, 2007 12:41 AM [link]
omphalos,
The feds won't need to be looking over your shoulder - they'll have opened it before you get there. Rule #1, don't use a bank safe deposit box - find a private service not subject to bank regulations (note that this is also advantageous in terms of passing on property outside of the probate mechanism).
Kaimu, the "money supply" in terms of what people think hey own must include all the paper "assets" that they own. Those assets are the counterparty's liability. If the counterparty fails to pay, those assets are worthless. If those assets were also pledged as collateral to a third party, the third party's wealth is also now vanishing. My fear is that this paper wealth (which is little more than a bundle of electrons these days) can collapse almost instantaneously. To me, this would be deflationary, and I suspect overwhelms the US government debt. We arrive at a similar conclusion, except perhaps that I favor miners over metal, based upon the last time this happened in the early 1930s.
Posted by: cyderman at
December 17, 2007 12:59 AM [link]
ALOHA !!
omphalos ... You forget one big difference! Back in 1933 Americans had lots of gold and knew the value of it since we were on the gold standard prior to 1933 up until 1913. Now few if any Americans have gold or have even touched a gold coin. The US government via the FED has been busy dishoarding our gold for us. It has been nearly 100 years since we had a taste of the gold standard and none are alive to recall it. In 1933 everyone over 20 new the gold standard and gold and silver coins of the realm still circulated. There would not be enough gold to confiscate to make a difference based on the massive $trillion debt. Let me tell you though ... they wouldn't waste their manpower or time on safe deposit boxes they'd start with GLD, which is why Wall Street designed the ETFs ... easy place to confiscate concentrated American wealth ... one stop shopping!
All that aside what's to stop the US government from confiscating 35% of your earnings? OH wait ... they already do ... its called income tax! Add in all the State and Local excise/property taxes and we're up to some 52%! The US government has been confiscating your wealth since you were born! They don't need gold, besides none of us have any! They'll just keep increasing taxes ... Did you see my post link a few months ago showing a copy of the first 1040 form from 1913 that showed the income tax bracket at 1% ... The first 1040 form had a total of only 7 lines(no schedules at all)and a place for your name and address and no social security numbers were used then! That first 1040 shows you how much inflation has crept into our monetary system since then. The US government has to keep increasing the tax revenues(brackets)because they continually need more tax dollars to get BIGGER and remain solvent.
Link to 1040 for 1913: http://tinyurl.com/3do96m
Why should the 1040 form of 2008 be longer than 7 lines? Perhaps its the CPA and HR&Block lobby! HA!!
If you are worried about gold confiscation then move your gold to known historical safe havens like Switzerland or Bahamas or your backyard!
ALOHA !!
cyderman ... You have to clarify you term "paper assets"? That could mean stock certificates or bonds or just plain cash.
So long as you have a mortgage payment you have no ownership rights. The bank owns your home not you. You only own a bank loan, so how is it Americans have any wealth when they don't really "own" any real estate in the first place? Even if you pay off your loan you then continually pay property tax and if you fail to pay your property tax then the county owns your home.
If you as a mortgage payer decide to not pay your mortgage then your loan becomes unservicable and the bank discharges the asset through auction. Of course with the current fractional reserve banking the bank originates a loan out of thin air creating debt which adds to money supply. The bank sells the defaulted home at auction and retires a portion of the debt from procedes of the sale which reduces money supply. The net balance on the loan does not reduce the money supply. Those mortgage owners defaulting at the height of the real estate bubble, especially in the hotter markets, made it easy for banks to recoup a larger portion of loan value but now auctions cannot support loan valuations and the money supply will expand because net debt will grow larger not smaller. The US government does not pay off its debt. It simply pays the interest and borrows more pushing the liability into the future for future generations to pay.
I fear a currency collapse more. As long as some one(mainly foreigners)will buy our debt this monetary game will go on forever. If our currency is worthless then nobody will buy our debt! Then we're Zimbabwe and everything our Founding Fathers and WW2 vets fought for will be all for nothing! We will be in debt servitude to the fiat masters for many generations.
ALOHA !!
If people believe that prices will rise in the future, even when they do not really understand or care to understand the root cause, won't they spend now instead of waiting inorder to save money, especially on imported goods.
From The Cunning Realist ...
Caffeine High
Wholesale Inflation Surges, But Sales Up
A record jump in gasoline prices pushed up wholesale inflation in November at the fastest pace in more than three decades, while retail sales showed unexpected strength.
The Labor Department said Thursday that wholesale prices rose by 3.2 percent last month, the biggest increase in 34 years. The jump reflected a 34.8 percent surge in gasoline prices. Outside of energy and food, core inflation posted a 0.4 percent jump, double what was expected.
But in more upbeat economic news, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased by a better-than-expected 1.2 percent last month. It was the biggest sales advance in six months and evidence of widespread strength in a number of areas, from department stores to clothing shops and furniture stores.
AP 12/13/07
Germany 1923
A student at Freiburg University ordered a cup of coffee at a cafe. The price on the menu was 5,000 Marks. He had two cups. When the bill came, it was for 14,000 Marks. "If you want to save money," he was told, "and you want two cups of coffee, you should order them both at the same time."
George Goodman (pen name Adam Smith), Paper Money, 1981
Greetings from the Amish Frozen Tundra!
Here is you 8:00am EST Cara 100 Update Report:
Upgrade:
TGP - to Outperform @ Friedman Billings
Downgrades:
WBK - to Neutral @ JP Morgan
UBS - to Sector Underperform @ CIBC
SBUX - to Sector Perform @ RBC
New Coverage:
MU - Below Average @ Caris & Company
Have a great and profitable day.
Posted by: Bull Hunter at
December 17, 2007 8:10 AM [link]
Bill, thanks for the character assessment. And thanks for the blog too, with all it's pointers!
Posted by: Leander at
December 17, 2007 8:31 AM [link]
Futures: Front months
Crude -1.07
USD +.07
Gold -4.30
Posted by: stktrader at
December 17, 2007 8:45 AM [link]
Anybody tried to access Scottrade today? I can't connect via Elite or the website.
Posted by: cyderman at
December 17, 2007 9:14 AM [link]
I spoke to a broker at the Scottrade office here. He said they got notice from the "home office" that the site was "down", but would probably be up by the time the market opens. LOL
Great day to have this happen. Very spooky feeling.
Posted by: Rigdon at
December 17, 2007 9:22 AM [link]
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Isaiah:
Thursday, you posted the following:
"golfer
Thanks.......!
Think I can get an intructor's fee from them. This lesson took5 yrs off my life.. :^)"
Please fill in...What were you thanking me for?
Posted by: golfer![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.billcara.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at
December 15, 2007 10:57 AM [link]