Good morning (as a sunny Cape Town prepares for the New Year celebrations).

I have just published my regular weekly article highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

The link to "Words from the Wise" is: http://tinyurl.com/2zzndj

Here’s wishing you a wonderful New Year. May it be truly joyful and exceptionally rewarding in all respects.

PS: It is almost late enough in Cape Town to start popping the corks!

Good Morning.

There are NO Cara 100 Ratings Changes to report at this time.

-------------------------------------------------

The old Bull Hunter wishes you and yours a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

With the Canadian dollar trading higher than the USD shouldn't the prices we see on the TSX be a higher price in cost than what we should be paying in the USA on the pink sheets; like NOT and PNP?

With the Yuan rising and the $USD falling - what are the best ways for us to profit from such?

The Dec 27, 2007 issue of the WSJ had an article entitled "How to Fix Your Life in 2008", which mentioned the ability to open a foreign-currency account with Cathay General Bancorp, in Los Angeles, and Everbank.com. Has anyone looked into either of these - with respect to the Yuan?

NAR releases its monthly existing home sales numbers, with the expected absurd spin.

http://tinyurl.com/3cqotv

Despite their usual b.s., the NAR can't hide the fact that prices continue to decline.

UXG is bleeding again. Tax selling?
TA wise, I have it as a broadening triangle. Price has not yet broken the bottom of the triangle...which is pretty forgiving. Another reason to just go with a basket.

Not many on board this week here at bc.com but I thought that Bill made a significant statement that compared trading mindset vs prices. By way of this site having a social conscience, discipline and self awareness become that much more important. Personally, I would like to see Merrill and others be humiliated and the brokers get nothing more than the price of a turkey. My biggest regret is not trading the ultrashort to make money off their pain. However, as Bill has said, gotta stick to my knitting. At Merrill I hear that many are spending their xmas holidays learning arabic. Time for me to sign off, happy new year.

stktrader:

It is the reverse.

Say today's trade is $1.02USD to buy $1.00CDN then 1 cdn/1.02 USD means that $0.980392 CDN gets you $1 USD.

Thus, if a stock is selling for say $4 USD then you should get it for 3.92 CDN (approx)

The CDN $ is stronger therefore gets you more USD.

Thanks golfer.

stktrader:

Was my explanation easy to understand?

golfer,
Yes, but since I am buying a Canadian stock to flip "Thus, if a stock is selling 3.92 CDN then I should pay 4.00 USD" fits my decription.

DOWN UNDER GOLD JUNIOR

Barra Resources, a small Australian junior miner
has just posted drill results from a recent exploration on the edge of one of their mines.
I believe they drilled down from the lowest existing mine elevation.

What they found was quite incredible.
462 grams per tonne! Big chunks of gold embeded in quartz. The press release can be found at: http://tinyurl.com/2shotp.

The stock shot from A 0.26 to A0.42 in a few days.

Symbol BAR on ASX... Pink Sheets BRCSF.PK

Perhaps a good spec for 2009.

Happy New Year All

ALOHA !!

To all a Hauoli Makahiki Hou !! HAPPY NEW YEAR !!

As the Old Year ends and a New Year begins once again GOLD has made a stellar performance. The juniors and some of the miners have not done as well but that will change. While the Yuan performs well at a 7% rise against the USD ... GOLD does four times better! I expect the same in 2008 with the usual ups and downs!

My eye is on the US Banks which I have no desire to park my hard-earned cash in! Credit swaps are ahead and with that in mind I can see why Merrill is scrambling to the foreigners! Makes me think this whole "globalization" is a GREAT thing for US Banks who use the globe as a refuse dump for their losses and fraud! Isn't globalization just another term for "hot potato"?

Today I am on a jet to Honolulu for the NEW YEAR. We will be on the beach at Waikiki watching the fireworks from the Hilton ... Then on Wednesday off to Sydney on a Qantas jet! Back to the Land Down Under and the Summer Sun of Perth!

I will keep in touch as best I can ...

Have a "safe and sane" 2008!

XLF acting strong amidst a weak tape in the last 30 mins...XLE, EEM, QQQQ, FXI down...and XLF up? Hmmmmm

On ordering Bill's new book. I remember there were so previous problems with the shipping cost. Has that been resolved and is there anything special that needs to be entered for the special discount?

correction:"some previous problems"

I just ordered the book last week. My credit card was charged $20 for shipping and then credited with $10 back. I didn't use a special code or anything.

Bill and others, party on! I guess we are getting what our government says we want then, a lower dollar against the yuan. I always found it very curious though, that while Paulson has constantly said China should let their currency strengthen, he never mentioned how that would mean higher prices for the U.S. I wonder if Jesse Livermore were alive today what he would think about this "overall condition."

JVS3

So you total cost was
39.95 [book] and
10.00 [shipping]

No, total cost was 29.95 book (Bill had the discount offer going which I think is valid until the 2nd of January) + 20 shipping - 10 off shipping credit to my card the next day.

Charge against my card of 49.95 on Dec 20.

Credit to my card of 10.00 on Dec 21.

I just double checked this on my card account.

JVS3

Thanks for the info.... you been a BIG help.

Have a Happy New Years JVS3.... see you back here in 2008!

Mad to think the public would act rationally
By Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 11:04pm GMT 30/12/2007

“I think people will enjoy this column. I think they will see that it is engaging and interesting. Because what people want is to read fascinating pieces of writing.

Irritating, isn't it? One of the most infuriating of all social peccadillos is when someone with whom you are barely acquainted claims to know better than you what you do or don't like. Worse still is when they spout their opinions about you to others in your presence. We rarely put up with it these days when a husband insists on ordering food for his wife. So why do we as an electorate put up with politicians doing exactly that to us on a daily basis?”…………

http://tinyurl.com/ysj544

Mad to think the public would act rationally
By Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 11:04pm GMT 30/12/2007

“I think people will enjoy this column. I think they will see that it is engaging and interesting. Because what people want is to read fascinating pieces of writing.

Irritating, isn't it? One of the most infuriating of all social peccadillos is when someone with whom you are barely acquainted claims to know better than you what you do or don't like. Worse still is when they spout their opinions about you to others in your presence. We rarely put up with it these days when a husband insists on ordering food for his wife. So why do we as an electorate put up with politicians doing exactly that to us on a daily basis?”…………

http://tinyurl.com/ysj544

KRY:
Seeing a change in direction on decent volume for KRY. Now at 2.3

2nd,

Is that you buying up the banks like there's no tomorrow? :^)

BH- sold everything at the open this morning, so wife and i are holding 100% cash->reason is to make it easy to run the trade(r)log software for schedule d in january 2009...

had a pretty good year and happy with our ending balances, so we just said WTH and sold it all->may end up buying it all back on wednesday, but at least the wash sale/cost basis calculations will be automated...

He must be the one rallying the homebuilders based on that fantastic (sarcasm) existing home sales report.

Yet ANOTHER bottom reached in the housing bust!

XLF and most financials are moving up, but volume is very low compared to daily avarages.

ATVI new 52 week high set on a crappy day. def some choppy trading and less than avg vol.

Learn2Invest -

I have opened accounts at Everbank for my wife and daughter. (their operations for these services is 1 mile from my house). Very interesting products from acts. in foreign currencies, to CD's in a basket of "commodity-based" currencies, to long-term CD's with returns tied to the gold price. All done with conventional futures contracts.

FYI, these creative products were developed some years ago by Mark Twain bank which was sold a few times, and ended up in Everbank.

Their people are knowledgeable, walk-in customer service competent and attentive. I don't know why more sucn products aren't offered retail customers by bigger US banks. --- Well, actually, I DO know. The bigger boys were too busy buying wacko mortgage products! LOL

Noticing stocks that I am following trading up in the last 30 minutes. Is that a trading dynamic due to the last trading day?

Jock,

Are you an STL resident?

I think I answered my own question. Short covering to book profits for the year.

kry------- been a follower for some time now.when big guys start buying won't take long to push the share value up again-- i am holding a wak o this stock. crystallex onlyown gold in the ground----- value will be based on cash folw---me thinks. have a wonderful new year wnd evening russty.

Happy New Year everyone ! Wish everyone good luck and profitable trading in the new 2008 year.

stktrader, Bill, and others.

I managed to get into PNP.TO at 4.26 C$. We shall see what happens, but I like uranium, pms, and oil, so what's not to like about PNP? This price corresponds to at least a 1 year low. Do you have any idea why it declined so much from March? I was thinking Noront would have to be a factor, but that can't explain everything. It would be interesting to have an analysis. At least now I don't feel I have to buy Valgold, WHY, Aurelian, and various uranium stocks. If and when it goes up, I will be buying at higher prices as well (averaging up).

Happy New Year to all and good luck in what promises to be a difficult year. Thanks Bill for your generosity both in setting up this website and in your daily ministrations. You are tops in my book!

stktrader, I think you are right.
Mutual fund managers have made it a habit to push stock prices higher at the close of the last session of the year in order to pad their results and gain higher bonuses.
Bill, thanks again for what you have created here for us all, I send you all my best wishes for the New Year to you and your family. Cheers

Jaketh, Yes live in St. Louis ... beer town, cardinals town, blues town. Are YOU?

BTW, HAPPY NEW YEAR to you, and the entire universe of Caristas !!!!!

Happy New Year everyone!!

Eighth wonder of the world? The stunning temples secretly carved out below ground by 'paranormal' eccentric
by HAZEL COURTENEY -

Nestling in the foothills of the Alps in northern Italy, 30 miles from the ancient city of Turin, lies the valley of Valchiusella. Peppered with medieval villages, the hillside scenery is certainly picturesque.
But it is deep underground, buried into the ancient rock, that the region's greatest wonders are concealed.
Here, 100ft down and hidden from public view, lies an astonishing secret - one that has drawn comparisons with the fabled city of Atlantis and has been dubbed 'the Eighth Wonder of the World' by the Italian government.
For weaving their way underneath the hillside are nine ornate temples, on five levels, whose scale and opulence take the breath away.
Constructed like a three-dimensional book, narrating the history of humanity, they are linked by hundreds of metres of richly decorated tunnels and occupy almost 300,000 cubic feet - Big Ben is 15,000 cubic feet.
Few have been granted permission to see these marvels.
Indeed, the Italian government was not even aware of their existence until a few years ago.
But the 'Temples of Damanhur' are not the great legacy of some long-lost civilisation, they are the work of a 57-year-old former insurance broker from northern Italy who, inspired by a childhood vision, began digging into the rock. ………

http://tinyurl.com/22xc3z

aucourant,
I also bought another 500 shares of Pinetree today at 4.23 usd. I now have 1K averaged at 4.36 usd. I want another 1K. But I see it as possibly an average down situation. As per Bill's comments regarding Gold, if that commodity moves lower so will Pinetree. It bottomed recently at 3.60, so we are not near the low of the period. It really is a longer term play on Uranium and S.W. will modify his fund to that advantage when the time comes. I do believe that we are at a historic low though prior to the next move up in Neclear power plant construction through out the world. It is like getting a second chance to get in low.

Jock,

I'm about 30 minutes east of you in IL. Gonna be fun getting around town for the next several years.
Jason

Happy New Year to all.

Let us hope for a better world and spare a moment to contemplate how fortunate we are compared to so many. To me, the singular most important item of the US Declaration of Independence was the change to "Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" from "Life, liberty and the pursuit of wealth" - thanks to Thomas Jefferson, who's probably turning in his grave.

Jason - telenetworxx

Indeed, getting around StL is going to be NUTS for the nxt 2 years. Fortunately, I can walk everywhere I need to go ! - Jock

For questions on PNP.TO:

Firstly PNP.TO is heavily exposed to base metals. Base metals have declined in the last year as the $US has declined. This should be your indicator of the performance of PNP.TO overall.

Historical charts for base metals prices and official warehouse supply can be viewed at kitcometals.com

Any commodity play is a direct function of the underlying price of the commodity itself. So if the commodity declines, then it follows that any company exposed to these commodities will have the same outlook.

Uranium:

Its important to note that there has been a sharp decline in U308 prices. This does not ultimately determine the success of plays exposed to U308. You must take in the nuclear fuel cycle to understand which fuel supply is in demand, rather than the raw material itself, which is not useable in reactors:

http://www.usec.com/v2001_02/HTML/Aboutusec_swu.asp

Obviously "Special Working Units" in enriched uranium is still in demand, while U308, the raw material has declined.

http://uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx

Should U308 decline further, rather than companies providing SWU, then companies exposed to uranium as a raw material will also decline.

Its very probable that any U308 supply held off market is now being sold outright to reduce losses, while the refining capacity for SWU has remained unchanged.

The way I see it, PNP.TO or any merchant banking interest or investment capital company heavily exposed to commodities will probably finally divest themselves of base metals and uranium.

Gold as a commodity has not yet declined, so this story is still in play. Gold prices are very firm despite Eurozone selling in an attempt to fix prices below $850 US. This is somewhat the reverse of what is occurring in base metals. At some point, no central bank will venture to either lease or sell their gold any longer as the credit system becomes empty of available hard currency.

So companies like PNP.TO will eventually be gold investors with greatly reduced exposure to base metals.

The rule of thumb then, is not to mix your gold with your base metals.

Hello Bill,

Happy new year !

I've got a question about the price of your new book. A couple of days ago you said:
So, I’ll probably leave open any orders until January 2 at the $29.95 price, and then move it to its regular price of $39.95.

Today i tried to order the book but the price is already $39,95 instead of $29,95. How can i order the book today at the special price ?

Mark

Jock,
We're out west in Lake Stl where we are settling in for the Mizzou/Arkansas game.
I have an online E'bank account and I knew E'bank had an admin office here, but I didn't realize it offered walk-in services. That is good to know, as I am interested in some of their currency products and would appreciate live consultation. Do you recommend anyone there in particular?

Happy New Year to you, also!

The Imperial Presidency: the '08 Candidates Weigh In
Posted December 26, 2007 | 01:17 AM (EST)
Looking back over the last year, it's one of the most important issues America faced. Looking ahead, it could turn out to be the "sleeper issue" of the 2008 presidential race.

I'm talking about executive power, the way it is used -- and has been abused over the last 7 years.

In a very revealing piece in the Boston Globe, Charlie Savage lays out the results of a questionnaire the Globe sent to the presidential candidates on the limits of executive power, asking their views on the Bush administration's expansive view of presidential authority.

It's hard to overstate how vital this issue is, or how far off the media radar screen it remains. Indeed, it's hard to think of another issue in which the importance-to-the-public
/attention-paid-by-the-media ratio is as out of whack.

As Savage -- who won a Pulitzer for his coverage of Bush's use of signing statements, and is the author of Takeover: The Return of the Imperial Presidency and the Subversion of American Democracy -- puts it:

"Bush has bypassed laws and treaties that he said infringed on his wartime powers, expanded his right to keep information secret from Congress and the courts, centralized greater control over the government in the White House, imprisoned US citizens without charges, and used signing statements to challenge more laws than all predecessors combined."

http://tinyurl.com/2xv9b8

MONDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2007

Opportunity Amid the Ruins
Richard Pzena, Founder, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pzena Investment Management
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL

IT'S BEEN A DREADFUL YEAR FOR NOTED VALUE MANAGER Rich Pzena, whose funds lost money in 2007, while shares of his newly public management company (ticker: PZN) sank to 12 from more than 22. Blame it in part on the manager's fondness for financial stocks, which had an even more dismal year -- and which account for 40% of Pzena Investment Management's assets. Then there's a shareholder lawsuit, charging Pzena failed to disclose outflows from the John Hancock Classic Value Fund (PZFVX), which he also manages, when the firm went public. Pzena says the suit has no merit.

If the present is trying, the manager's long-term record still stands tall. The firm's assets under management grew tenfold, to nearly $29 billion as of the end of the third quarter, from $3 billion in 2002. The $7 billion John Hancock fund is down 13% this year and has seen outflows of $1.6 billion since Sept. 30, but it sports an average annual return of 11% over five years. Bloodied but unbowed, Pzena explains what went wrong in 2007 and why there's good value now in beaten-up financials and big-caps generally.

http://tinyurl.com/ytlsyd

My Friends,

Happy New Year!!

http://tinyurl.com/khq0

AdamG:

you were asking about the availability of a gold ultrashort ETF?

check out these Cdn Horizons BetaPro products:

http://www.hbpfunds.com/gbepf.asp

regards

joey

joey- thanks for the info->some of the older listed ETFs for Horizons BetaPro are available for trade thru fidelity by adding ".TO" after the canadian symbol and then clicking on "Trade" to find the trading symbol (for example, HGU.TO brings up the BetaPro Gold Bull Plus ETF->trading symbol in the US = HZNSF)...just a matter of time before the Gold Bear Plus HGD becomes available...

I am considering a move to a new broker for some of my ETF/Mutual Fund/Equity trades and have narrowed to Interactive Brokers, Think or Swim and (last and least) Evertrade (an affiliate of Everbank).

Anyone here care to comment with respect to the three on topics such as ease of use, execution quality/accuracy, costs and dispute resolution.

Also, I have considered a separate short-term 100k+ deposit with Everbank due to the present high promotional yield (mid-5%s) but have discovered over at the FDIC site that the latest PD20 category (assets past due 90 days+ but still "accruing") ran approximately 2/3 of core capital as of Sepptember 30, 2007. This seems dangerous for a bank, especially one which is privately held and promotes numerous rather unusual products. Anyone have some insights or comments here?

Thanks.

History repeats perhaps??

http://tinyurl.com/3ao75c

The Economist discusses the "Match King: Ivar Kreuger was the world's greatest swindler. He would have thrived today."

Bull Hunter
on December 27, 2007 9:49 AM: You posted;

"Scaling into CVP (and its 15% annual divy, paid monthly)@ $10.00, in my Roth."

I was going to do a little DD for CVP which keeps comming up as Centerplate Inc. (Yahoo Finance)which pays no divedend.

On StockCharts.com that symbol comes up as Volume Services American Holdings Inc.

Googling that name returned the following:

"Volume Services America Holdings, Inc. ("VSAH"), the parent company of Volume Services America, Inc., today announced that it has filed a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering of Income Deposit SecuritieS ("IDSS")"

Doen't sound like it's quite ready to pay monthly div. yet ;-)

What is your CVP &
What exchange does it trade on?

Thanks in advance & happy New Year

Lazarus,
Centerplate Inc. (CVP.UN) paid hefty dividends (1.56) in 2007 and just announced a 13 cent dividend for the month of December 2007.
http://tinyurl.com/3yuh37
Company Website http://tinyurl.com/3cr7jp

Lazarus,

CVP is Centerplate, I believe. It's traded as Income Deposit Securities on the AMEX. IDS's are part stock and part bond. The dividend is $0.13 a month. They do concessions at stadiums and convention centers. I've owned it for awhile and it's been tanking hard for about a month but I can't see why. They might lose the contract for the new Yankee's stadium but that shouldn't cause this big a drop. Hope this helps.

Oh, for some reason Yahoo never shows that CVP pays a dividend although thats not the case. I think it might do that because it's an IDS but not sure. As Fred said, it paid $1.56 total in '07.

Lazarus,

CVP = Centerplate, traded on the AMEX. Here is their home page:

http://tinyurl.com/3cr7jp

Take a gander at their client list.

Yahoo rarely gets dividends right, especially on IDS securities. CVP pays a monthly dividend which is part bond, part dividend. At Monday's closing price the current annual yield is more than 17%.

There is always lots of short interest in the stock and plenty of rumors. They may very well lose the Yankee Stadium contract at the end of 2008, but that's been priced into the stock for months already. They'll be adding the Washington Nationals this baseball season.

Four of their NFL clients have made the post-season, and two of them will host at least one post-season game.

I really like this business, which should do well even in a recession (will people stop attending pro sporting events?), but would urge you to do your own DD.

Regards

Good Morning!

Just for the fun of it, here is my guess for the first trading day of the year re NDX and Gold.

Be aware that I am still out of the market, and that the comments below are just FOR FUN. Do not trade based on these comments, please.

NDX: A bad first day seems to be coming, but I would expect 2070 to hold (50% retracemtn of last move), albeit we might see some choppy trading, as portfolio allocations are starting to take place.

Gold: A test of the 836 maximum of November seems to be brewing. If it breaks out, the next levels are 840 and 850. If 850 is reached, it will be a perfect short. Again, in order to pave the way for a good year, a gold pullback is to be expected soon.

Please be aware that these first few days are likely to be very choppy, as a lot of reallocation is going on, so let's start by just watching from the sidelines.

Have a profittable new year.

Cheers!

Looks like US doesn't like the new budget for the UN... and voted against it. This is the first time in 20 years this has happened. World politics at work... and perhaps a currency war against the USD is already underway?

The commission on UN corruption that found $600M in misspent funds was axed in the current budget.... as was Baghdad's $160M UN building proposal.

http://tinyurl.com/3x5939

23 December 2007 - Capping off days of intensive negotiations, the General Assembly has adopted a two-year budget of $4.17 billion for the United Nations, with the United States casting the lone negative vote.

Following marathon talks that lasted through the night, the Assembly adopted the 2008-2009 budget early Saturday morning by a vote of 142 to 1. The US, which contributes around 22 per cent of the world body's budget, was the only country to vote against the plan, citing concerns that the actual budget would be significantly higher than what was approved with all the add-ons.

More info here..

http://tinyurl.com/37d5mb

On a different note, anyone see Ron Paul on Mad Money? He got bopped off the Fox bus debate card because he has less than 10% of the 'public opinion'

Here's Cramer & RP bashing the Fed. Looks like Cramer's head is about to explode as usual.

http://tinyurl.com/3xlf6g

Go Ron Paul, with Buffett the bond bailout king as VP. http://tinyurl.com/2fdwal

Sad to say he's probably more likely to be elected in Venezuela with the current media slant in the US...

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

buying into QQQQ and russell on weakness

The 20 years that changed my life... and the face of modern Britain
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 02/01/2008
History is what usually happens to somebody else, while you are quietly trying to get on with your own life. War, strife and famine, the rise and fall of nations, the follies and vanities of politicians - these are seldom milestones in our lives; they are more usually bookmarks, the co-ordinates by which we chart our own, less momentous journeys through our first job, marriage, the birth of a child, the passing of parents or friends.

http://tinyurl.com/yqtv6w

US Ambassador to UN - "You lack discipline!"

http://tinyurl.com/34kejy

Add ons could add more than 15% to the $4.19 billion budget of the UN... that the US pays 23% or so of.

Is it a good thing the US didn't join Kyoto?they'd have to fund that today.. and meet their 7% objective for carbon emissions reduction too.

http://tinyurl.com/2oefen

Interesting times...

The U.S. is hardly one to admonish the U.N. for lack of fiscal discipline; talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

Next they will be scolding the U.N. for trampling on the rights of citizens, or marching forward(?) to Fascism.

Phoney Bastards!

So far today 50,000 June puts on QQQQ have sold for strikes of 49-51, while about 100 calls have sold. I don't know if I'm a sucker or not but I bought 10 with a 51 strike.

Rob.

Hi Bill,

Just came to check out your site after seeing it as a referrer to my Nassau New Years Eve Junkanoo panoramas. Thanks for sharing my photos, it's always great to know more people are enjoying panoramas! Hope you had a great New Years Eve,

John Jr.