« Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Dec. 7, 2007, 8:42am ET | Main | Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 12/08/2007 10:45 AM ET »

December 7, 2007

Cara's Daily Report and Commentary, Fri., Dec 7, 2007

Markets Re-cap


The Bush-Paulson mortgage foreclosure relief plan sparked a rally for stocks on Thursday. Short covering ignited a triple-digit DJIA gain (+174.93). The S&P 500 (+22.33) and Nasdaq Composite (+42.67) also jumped. Housebuilders emerged a clear-cut winner.

Delinquency rates for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties that are at least 30 days past due was 5.59%, the largest total since 1986, with subprime adjustable rate mortgages suffering the most.

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) swung to a loss in its 4Q of $81.8 million, compared with year-earlier net income of $173.8 million, on more write-downs of land values. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) forecasted its 2008 profit would increase up to 14% from earlier estimates for 2007 due to higher sales of drugs for depression, diabetes and erectile dysfunction.

Yesterday, Jobless claims were reported to have decreased W/W by 15,000 to 338,000, yet the 4-week MA increased to a two-year high. The US Jobs Report this morning shows about +94,000 net new jobs, but the higher paying jobs in the Financial sector, for example, are way down.

With the Bush-Paulson Plan, traders fearing inflation pumped Crude Oil almost $3.00/bbl higher to $90.23/bbl. The $USD weakened vs the Euro, which lifted gold and silver. Traders also sold off US Treasurys, sending the 10-year yield rising over +4 pct.

Before yesterday’s market action in NY, the Asian markets had closed higher before European shares ended flat.

Earlier this morning, equity futures slipped ahead of the US Jobs Report.

On the deal’s front, Macrovision Corp (MVSN) has agreed to acquire Gemstar-TV Guide International (GMST)for $2.8 billion in cash and stock.

Except for Hong Kong, Asian markets closed up, while European shares are trading broadly higher. The DJIA is up +26, the 10-year yield is at 4.06 pct, Gold has dropped about -5.50, at this point (9:48am ET)


Comments & Outlook

In a couple days, the Daily RSI-7 70/30 over:under has moved from 7:6 to 22:1. With the stronger futures today, this reading is likely to close the week higher. Moreover going into Tuesday’s FOMC decision to cut rates, probably 25bp for the Fed Rate and 50bp for the Discount Rate, trading bullishness ought to persist.

I surmise that the reaction in the market to the Fed cuts on Tuesday, if they come, will be muted, and we may not again this year see such high over:under readings.

Traders have to realize that Funds that hold these illiquid SIV’s as well as HB&B who sold them, and the Administration that fears the R word, are all motivated to serve and protect themselves. In every case they are using OPM, which is Other People’s Money, or in other words yours, to pump, pump, pump the equity market for as long as possible.

I surmise that the winners of this stock cycle will be the class action litigators. After the previous Bull market peak in 2000, Eliot Spitzer and the lawyers in the private sector who pursued HB&B ended with a multi-billion dollar win. HB&B shrugged that off with a mere blink. This time the litigation numbers will be much larger and the numbers of HB&B left standing will be smaller, I believe.

If I were heading up a unit of HB&B, I’d come clean asap, to try to mitigate legal damages over the next five years. That is a costly exercise as CIBC discovered yesterday, but its the best course for companies to take.

What transparency means, however, is breaking ranks from HB&B.


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

US Consumer Credit Report for October.

US Employment Report for November.


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

RSI > 70 (12 of 22)

RSI < 30 (1)



International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest chart for the London Stock Exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest chart for the German DAX.


Here is the latest chart for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest chart for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest chart for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US and the Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest chart for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart


Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
AIG 61.35 3.20 5.50% 7.01% 19.52% 5.96% -14.97% -5.24% -14.99% -12.68%
C 34.35 0.66 1.96% 6.38% 11.78% 2.81% -37.83% -24.77% -35.59% -32.36%
INTC 27.98 0.76 2.79% 6.23% 13.60% 4.01% 37.49% 7.00% 30.20% 33.88%
HON 58.23 0.50 0.87% 6.10% 8.01% -1.37% 29.11% 2.77% 1.55% 35.73%
JPM 46.21 1.31 2.92% 5.86% 13.59% 9.40% -3.87% 4.52% -8.60% -1.32%
HD 29.49 0.52 1.79% 5.77% 5.13% 0.51% -28.20% -16.27% -23.00% -26.13%
AXP 59.53 1.60 2.76% 4.64% 9.55% 7.51% -1.38% 0.22% -6.60% -0.23%
VZ 44.42 -0.10 -0.22% 4.57% 5.89% 3.06% 17.45% 5.11% 3.49% 27.10%
CAT 74.35 1.64 2.26% 3.67% 9.43% 1.02% 21.57% -1.85% -5.50% 17.92%
WMT 49.27 0.37 0.76% 3.64% 9.83% 12.16% 3.62% 15.22% -2.92% 5.87%
UTX 77.99 1.14 1.48% 3.38% 7.16% 4.74% 24.17% 3.97% 11.54% 20.06%
MCD 60.28 0.77 1.29% 3.31% 5.15% 3.25% 37.41% 21.14% 19.04% 40.32%
XOM 91.44 1.52 1.69% 3.22% 5.06% 4.86% 23.38% 4.51% 9.35% 19.83%
MSFT 34.55 0.40 1.17% 2.86% 0.93% -2.73% 15.71% 19.51% 14.06% 19.18%
DD 47.25 0.55 1.18% 2.52% 6.54% 0.21% -3.65% -2.42% -7.32% 1.31%
PFE 24.17 0.19 0.79% 2.42% 8.14% 3.64% -8.06% -1.83% -9.78% -2.54%
MO 77.80 0.00 0.00% 2.40% 7.44% 8.09% 19.84% 13.96% 9.87% 23.18%
HPQ 52.21 0.55 1.06% 2.27% 6.81% 0.71% 25.44% 4.02% 13.43% 30.07%
T 38.82 0.40 1.04% 2.08% 3.66% 0.41% 11.07% -2.32% -3.86% 11.62%
IBM 109.70 1.54 1.42% 2.05% 7.32% -1.24% 12.78% -6.73% 7.12% 16.55%
MMM 84.82 1.06 1.27% 1.45% 4.41% 1.86% 8.38% -6.41% -2.08% 6.29%
KO 63.07 0.02 0.03% 0.45% 1.32% 5.19% 29.83% 15.39% 21.29% 30.36%
PG 74.18 0.37 0.50% 0.04% 2.66% 6.86% 14.94% 12.21% 17.39% 16.27%
JNJ 68.30 0.09 0.13% -0.15% 1.73% 6.87% 2.86% 10.77% 8.59% 3.44%
DIS 32.72 -0.03 -0.09% -0.27% 3.87% -2.33% -4.33% -4.91% -6.27% -4.05%
GM 28.61 0.51 1.81% -0.59% 8.41% -15.73% -2.85% -7.86% -4.67% -2.59%
MRK 59.50 0.10 0.17% -0.70% 5.27% 9.78% 35.17% 17.89% 17.22% 33.20%
BA 91.78 1.08 1.19% -1.53% 5.00% -5.27% 2.93% -4.59% -6.62% 1.05%
AA 35.86 0.25 0.70% -1.89% 1.96% -4.12% 22.26% -1.75% -10.01% 16.62%
GE 37.26 0.55 1.50% -2.31% 0.24% -4.66% -1.87% -5.43% -0.08% 6.12%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)



The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.



Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section 2007_12_06 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLE 76.65 2.09 2.80% 4.83% 6.24% 2.82% 35.47% 6.75% 11.31% 26.28%
XLF 31.62 0.79 2.56% 4.53% 10.60% 5.19% -14.36% -5.41% -15.50% -12.68%
IYZ 29.89 0.25 0.84% 3.35% 5.92% -0.83% 0.78% -9.83% -12.53% 3.10%
XLU 43.95 -0.26 -0.59% 3.31% 4.74% 6.03% 19.36% 11.44% 9.19% 19.07%
XLB 42.62 0.72 1.72% 3.25% 9.45% 1.48% 23.14% 7.84% 5.10% 20.94%
SMH 33.54 0.47 1.42% 2.73% 6.71% -0.33% -0.09% -13.38% -7.35% -3.62%
XLI 40.00 0.45 1.14% 2.01% 6.19% 0.76% 13.54% 1.29% 3.23% 13.22%
XLY 34.61 0.23 0.67% 1.38% 4.97% -0.55% -10.15% -6.03% -12.82% -9.68%
IYH 73.18 0.40 0.55% 0.80% 5.55% 5.04% 10.11% 5.48% 2.39% 10.49%
XLP 29.15 -0.01 -0.03% 0.34% 3.19% 4.29% 10.92% 8.08% 5.31% 11.81%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)

ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
IFN 65.50 0.76 1.17% 10.98% 22.09% 13.09% 44.46% 39.12% 55.47% 38.19%
EWZ 85.50 2.10 2.52% 7.61% 11.55% 4.43% 83.08% 36.58% 46.08% 86.60%
FXI 197.49 1.75 0.89% 6.81% 20.78% 4.60% 69.66% 30.87% 73.59% 101.93%
TRF 71.61 -0.49 -0.68% 5.39% 9.33% 1.99% -19.13% 14.61% 10.77% -7.53%
SPY 150.94 2.07 1.39% 2.55% 6.52% 2.05% 6.77% 1.90% -0.59% 6.46%
EWJ 14.38 0.18 1.27% 2.35% 7.80% 4.20% 1.27% 4.73% -1.84% 2.06%
EWU 25.80 0.06 0.23% 1.53% 5.95% 0.27% 9.55% 3.20% 2.83% 8.31%
IEV 121.55 1.28 1.06% 1.39% 5.07% 0.76% 15.10% 7.34% 4.95% 16.39%
QQQQ 52.32 0.75 1.45% 1.20% 6.10% -1.93% 21.00% 6.47% 11.15% 18.21%
EWC 31.21 -0.80 -2.50% -6.16% -12.21% -7.72% 26.36% 8.41% 4.70% 22.68%


Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:


Daily EWJ

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:


Weekly EWJ



U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:


Daily EWU Data

Interactive EWU Weekly data:


Weekly EWU Data


Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:


Daily EWC Data

Interactive EWC Weekly data:


Weekly EWC Data


Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 2.95 2.96 2.85 3.59
6 Month 3.14 3.13 3.16 3.74
2 Year 3.01 2.93 3.04 3.70
3 Year 2.98 2.91 2.99 3.68
5 Year 3.38 3.32 3.40 3.99
10 Year 4.01 3.95 3.94 4.37
30 Year 4.47 4.43 4.34 4.67
Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 3.13 3.13 3.16 3.32
2yr AAA 3.11 3.14 3.23 3.31
2yr A 3.38 3.26 3.36 3.33
5yr AAA 3.28 3.33 3.29 3.41
5yr AA 3.24 3.24 3.30 3.41
5yr A 3.39 3.43 3.40 3.51
10yr AAA 3.70 3.69 3.70 3.80
10yr AA 3.62 3.56 3.60 3.70
10yr A 3.92 3.92 3.93 4.03
20yr AAA 4.36 4.37 4.41 4.44
20yr AA 4.15 4.17 4.20 4.63
20yr A 4.74 4.74 4.83 4.45
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 4.20 4.11 4.25 4.60
2yr A 4.47 4.41 4.59 4.76
5yr AAA 4.49 4.50 4.54 4.83
5yr AA 4.75 4.66 4.76 5.15
5yr A 4.69 4.59 4.63 5.08
10yr AAA 5.16 5.11 5.06 5.37
10yr AA 5.43 5.40 5.43 5.71
10yr A 5.59 5.59 5.55 5.89
20yr AAA 5.44 5.38 5.57 5.08
20yr AA 5.68 5.62 5.68 6.08
20yr A 6.19 6.12 6.03 6.11


Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.


Bond Yields Curve



US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For SHY

IEF Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For IEF

TLT Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TLT

AGG Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For AGG

LQD Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For LQD

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds - Daily Data For TIP


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CFC 12.10 1.68 16.12% 30.11% 28.45% -11.23% -71.27% -34.52% -69.00% -71.02%
FRE 37.10 2.43 7.01% 25.72% 42.69% -17.79% -45.35% -37.53% -44.35% -45.81%
FNM 38.74 2.61 7.22% 19.60% 32.54% -22.19% -35.28% -37.59% -39.52% -33.78%
AGG 101.70 0.15 0.15% -0.09% -0.07% 1.38% 1.79% 2.44% 3.24% 0.87%
SHY 82.26 -0.17 -0.21% -0.24% -0.28% 0.83% 2.77% 1.66% 3.13% 2.45%
IEF 86.92 -0.46 -0.53% -0.62% -0.29% 2.08% 5.13% 3.49% 7.23% 3.86%
TIP 104.99 -0.32 -0.30% -1.68% -1.66% 0.84% 5.80% 3.88% 6.23% 3.89%
TLT 92.79 -0.82 -0.88% -2.16% -0.71% 2.28% 4.18% 4.21% 8.65% 2.00%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts


Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts CFC

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FNM

Consumer Finance -USA- Daily Data Charts FRE


Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

CRB Commodities Index - Weekly Chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:


Crude Oil- Weekly Chart

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
PBR 106.68 4.04 3.94% 10.49% 7.71% 15.03% 114.09% 63.29% 94.88% 121.60%
CVX 91.38 2.08 2.33% 5.57% 6.57% 4.39% 28.76% 2.75% 11.73% 24.23%
SU 102.41 1.61 1.60% 4.61% 1.50% -8.06% 38.56% 10.57% 16.19% 28.53%
STO 34.16 1.06 3.20% 4.59% 8.48% 0.65% 32.97% 11.38% 23.86% 23.63%
IMO 51.31 1.20 2.39% 4.39% -1.52% -11.61% 43.89% 13.90% 9.33% 33.27%
TOT 83.69 1.48 1.80% 4.18% 3.50% 1.17% 17.92% 9.66% 11.59% 18.09%
XOM 91.44 1.52 1.69% 3.22% 5.06% 4.86% 23.38% 4.51% 9.35% 19.83%
ECA 67.16 1.66 2.53% 2.64% -0.43% -8.49% 48.13% 12.18% 5.35% 26.17%
CEO 189.69 0.27 0.14% 2.12% 19.30% 2.26% 101.22% 54.29% 87.27% 115.02%



Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:


GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

GOLD EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:


SILVER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart



Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PLAT EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.


Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:


PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

PALL EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.


Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index- Daily Chart


COPPER EOD Continuous Contract Index - Weekly Chart


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.


Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
KGC 18.20 0.44 2.48% 1.56% 2.65% -9.05% 59.37% 37.25% 35.52% 46.89%
AEM 49.12 1.67 3.52% 0.20% -3.27% -12.88% 26.21% 1.85% 32.19% 12.95%
AUY 13.13 0.35 2.74% 0.08% -0.38% -10.38% 6.49% 5.72% -4.58% 1.39%
MDG 36.23 0.66 1.86% -0.28% -0.63% -10.21% 37.81% 14.51% 40.59% 20.29%
GG 33.40 1.19 3.69% -0.54% 1.64% -7.89% 22.17% 29.56% 34.84% 12.46%
NEM 50.52 1.10 2.23% -1.69% -0.08% -6.81% 14.30% 14.56% 23.10% 8.74%
ABX 40.26 0.63 1.59% -1.92% -3.55% -12.93% 34.96% 11.22% 40.08% 32.39%
GFI 16.34 -0.49 -2.91% -3.83% -4.33% -9.72% -10.86% 0.18% -1.57% -11.77%
BVN 55.83 1.60 2.95% -4.52% 4.63% -8.33% 102.21% 29.45% 64.50% 97.98%


To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data


Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index: