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December 7, 2007
Cara's Daily Report and Commentary, Fri., Dec 7, 2007
Markets Re-cap
The Bush-Paulson mortgage foreclosure relief plan sparked a rally for stocks on Thursday. Short covering ignited a triple-digit DJIA gain (+174.93). The S&P 500 (+22.33) and Nasdaq Composite (+42.67) also jumped. Housebuilders emerged a clear-cut winner.
Delinquency rates for mortgage loans on one-to-four unit residential properties that are at least 30 days past due was 5.59%, the largest total since 1986, with subprime adjustable rate mortgages suffering the most.
Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) swung to a loss in its 4Q of $81.8 million, compared with year-earlier net income of $173.8 million, on more write-downs of land values. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) forecasted its 2008 profit would increase up to 14% from earlier estimates for 2007 due to higher sales of drugs for depression, diabetes and erectile dysfunction.
Yesterday, Jobless claims were reported to have decreased W/W by 15,000 to 338,000, yet the 4-week MA increased to a two-year high. The US Jobs Report this morning shows about +94,000 net new jobs, but the higher paying jobs in the Financial sector, for example, are way down.
With the Bush-Paulson Plan, traders fearing inflation pumped Crude Oil almost $3.00/bbl higher to $90.23/bbl. The $USD weakened vs the Euro, which lifted gold and silver. Traders also sold off US Treasurys, sending the 10-year yield rising over +4 pct.
Before yesterday’s market action in NY, the Asian markets had closed higher before European shares ended flat.
Earlier this morning, equity futures slipped ahead of the US Jobs Report.
On the deal’s front, Macrovision Corp (MVSN) has agreed to acquire Gemstar-TV Guide International (GMST)for $2.8 billion in cash and stock.
Except for Hong Kong, Asian markets closed up, while European shares are trading broadly higher. The DJIA is up +26, the 10-year yield is at 4.06 pct, Gold has dropped about -5.50, at this point (9:48am ET)
Comments & Outlook
In a couple days, the Daily RSI-7 70/30 over:under has moved from 7:6 to 22:1. With the stronger futures today, this reading is likely to close the week higher. Moreover going into Tuesday’s FOMC decision to cut rates, probably 25bp for the Fed Rate and 50bp for the Discount Rate, trading bullishness ought to persist.
I surmise that the reaction in the market to the Fed cuts on Tuesday, if they come, will be muted, and we may not again this year see such high over:under readings.
Traders have to realize that Funds that hold these illiquid SIV’s as well as HB&B who sold them, and the Administration that fears the R word, are all motivated to serve and protect themselves. In every case they are using OPM, which is Other People’s Money, or in other words yours, to pump, pump, pump the equity market for as long as possible.
I surmise that the winners of this stock cycle will be the class action litigators. After the previous Bull market peak in 2000, Eliot Spitzer and the lawyers in the private sector who pursued HB&B ended with a multi-billion dollar win. HB&B shrugged that off with a mere blink. This time the litigation numbers will be much larger and the numbers of HB&B left standing will be smaller, I believe.
If I were heading up a unit of HB&B, I’d come clean asap, to try to mitigate legal damages over the next five years. That is a costly exercise as CIBC discovered yesterday, but its the best course for companies to take.
What transparency means, however, is breaking ranks from HB&B.
International Economics Review
US Consumer Credit Report for October.
US Employment Report for November.
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest chart for the London Stock Exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest chart for the German DAX.
Here is the latest chart for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest chart for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest chart for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US and the Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest chart for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section 2007_12_06 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 2.95 | 2.96 | 2.85 | 3.59 |
| 6 Month | 3.14 | 3.13 | 3.16 | 3.74 |
| 2 Year | 3.01 | 2.93 | 3.04 | 3.70 |
| 3 Year | 2.98 | 2.91 | 2.99 | 3.68 |
| 5 Year | 3.38 | 3.32 | 3.40 | 3.99 |
| 10 Year | 4.01 | 3.95 | 3.94 | 4.37 |
| 30 Year | 4.47 | 4.43 | 4.34 | 4.67 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.13 | 3.13 | 3.16 | 3.32 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.11 | 3.14 | 3.23 | 3.31 |
| 2yr A | 3.38 | 3.26 | 3.36 | 3.33 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.28 | 3.33 | 3.29 | 3.41 |
| 5yr AA | 3.24 | 3.24 | 3.30 | 3.41 |
| 5yr A | 3.39 | 3.43 | 3.40 | 3.51 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| 10yr AA | 3.62 | 3.56 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| 10yr A | 3.92 | 3.92 | 3.93 | 4.03 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.36 | 4.37 | 4.41 | 4.44 |
| 20yr AA | 4.15 | 4.17 | 4.20 | 4.63 |
| 20yr A | 4.74 | 4.74 | 4.83 | 4.45 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.20 | 4.11 | 4.25 | 4.60 |
| 2yr A | 4.47 | 4.41 | 4.59 | 4.76 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.49 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 4.83 |
| 5yr AA | 4.75 | 4.66 | 4.76 | 5.15 |
| 5yr A | 4.69 | 4.59 | 4.63 | 5.08 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.16 | 5.11 | 5.06 | 5.37 |
| 10yr AA | 5.43 | 5.40 | 5.43 | 5.71 |
| 10yr A | 5.59 | 5.59 | 5.55 | 5.89 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.44 | 5.38 | 5.57 | 5.08 |
| 20yr AA | 5.68 | 5.62 | 5.68 | 6.08 |
| 20yr A | 6.19 | 6.12 | 6.03 | 6.11 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:








