Bill

I would call it striving to....

"B E C O M P E T E N T"

as seen here in this short 1 min clip....

http://tinyurl.com/yrlomu

Dear Bill,

Thank you for allowing me a forum to discuss ideas about trading and related subject matter. Yesterday you wrote that I seem to be "up to my old tricks", that I had "promised to be nice" and suggested that all of my "book learning" had somehow impeded my common sense. Please don't expect me to get angry or to take those critiques too much to heart. If what you mean by "up to my old tricks" involves telling unpopular truths and providing below-radar info, then I intend, in a democratic tradition, to continue my "old tricks" as long as I am permitted to. I appreciate that this is not a democracy, that you and you alone retain editorial privilege, and that my suffering the slings and arrows of personal insults is a matter wholly out of my control. I will, as I've promised in the past, never stoop to denigrate your opinions or the opinions of others present in this (or any other) forum. If it's ok with you, I plan to make a second post today, describing in some detail facts, not widely appreciated, that are in some measure supportive of my position made here yesterday that the loss of Ms. Bhutto MAY not be the tragedy for Pakistani demococratic hopes that the media is portraying it to be.

Bill,

This site seems to provide everything one needs on computers including free technical support. Hope this helps -

http://www.techsupportalert.com/

I wish everyone a very happy and prosperous new year.

I must say that I share with you the desire of constant improvement! In the long run we all benefit: You, from the stisfaction of doing your best, and the rest of us from your knowledege.

I would like to share with you another chart that indicates that we are at the threshold of a recession. When the y/y change in the Unemployment Rate(UR) surpasses .2% we are typically in the 2nd or 3rd month of a recession. The coming UR is expected to rise to 4.8%. This means a y/y change of .3%(or 6% jump)
This percentage is already higher than any historical(since 1948) number at the start of recession. See "Uneployment Treshold"

The below information is sourced from the New York Times Friday December 28 section A-14.

"A deeply polarizing figure, Ms. Bhutto the self-styled ""daughter of Pakistan"" was twice elected prime minister and twice expelled from office amid a swirl of corruption charges".

Her father was hanged on charges of having ordered the murder of a political opponent. Her younger brother Shahnwaz was, according to French investigators, murdered in a family feud over a multimillion-dollar inheritance from Bhutto's father, Zulfiker. Ms. Bhutto's other brother Murtaza founded a terrorist group that sought to topple General Zia. Murtaza said to the press in 1994 that he and Ms. Bhutto were involved in a "bitter dispute" over monies placed in a Swiss bank when their father was prime minister. He was shot to death and his widow blamed Ms. Bhutto and her husband, Asif Ali Zardari.

"Ms. Bhutto presented herself on public platforms as the standard bearer for Pakistan's impoverished masses, for civil liberties, and for unfettered democracy, while at the same time she often behaved in an imperious manner in private, in her dealings as prime minister, and with government officials, diplomats and reporters. she once rebuked a reporter who was awaiting an interview at the prime minister's residence for having the temerity to look at family photographs on the mantle shelf. ""where do you think you are?, she asked.""

In "Daughter of Destiny" her memoir, sherebuked reporters for clling attention to her dress stylem the traditional loose-fitting robe favored by Pakistani women, saying she didn't care about matters of fashion, calling them a "bourgeois pastime". Yet, she gained a reputation among aids and dilomats who accompanied her abroad for buying expensive jewelry and shoes at elite stores in beverly hills, Paris and London.

"Her critics often attributed her flushes of haughtiness and her expensive tastes to a sense of entitlement as (her father's) daughter and as the pre-eminent menber of a wealthy land-owning family...the egalitariancredo Ms. Bhutto preached as a politician found little echo in the lives of the impoverished men and women, many of them indentured workers, who worked the family's ancestral lands"

After her second dismissal from office in 1996Pakistani officials accused her and her husband of embezzling as much as 1.5 billion from government accounts. The investigators produced thick volumes of documents tracing multimillion-dollar kickbacks paid to the couple in return for the award of government contracts, and a web of bank accounts across the world used to hide the money. Criminal probes of the couples finances were opened in Britain, Spain and Switzerland among other places. But the cases against the couple were ultimately quashed by an amnesty granted by Pakistan's president, Pervez Musharraf.

Sharkie,

You are so self absorbed. You don't suffer slings and arrows when YOU libel and slander *without one fact* people you know little to nothing about. Turn around and look at yourself and what YOU are doing. This isn't about YOU being attacked, it about you spouting crap and trying to justify murder.

Yesterday's post wasn't an airing of fact or position, it was character assasination of two woman politicians. One just murdered and supported by over 70% of the people in Pakistan, and the other fully investigated in *every* respect for eight years at the cost of untold millions of dollars in taxpayer funds by independent prosecutor Kenneth Star.

It contained no factual information of any kind.
Not ONE fact. You will note there were NO prosecutions resulting from any of the allegations you list..... again for the millionth time. Wow, really rare news from Sharkie living the 90's again. What was it, $37 million to investigate whitewater and cattle futures? Do you mind if we just roll our eyes and ignore your HC rant? If there were no charges filed your rant is baseless unjustified accusation. Otherwise known as slander.

Then you go from foot in mouth to ass in mouth.
There is NO WAY possible for you to justify the murder of Benazir Bhutto. Please do not attempt to tell this list that assasination is good for anything, as no matter what insane justification you might dream up, MURDER IS MURDER and there can be NO JUSTIFICATION FOR IT....PERIOD.

The idea that murder could be good for democracy here or in Pakistan is a bankrupt notion, plain and simple. And it's pretty sick.

To even attempt it shows you have no respect for human life and that you may be completely blind to perhaps the bravest leader you have ever witnessed in your life. And your attack revealed just how biased and ignorant you are even when attacking the dead.

Please, save your breath and the bandwidth as I guarantee you will not be met with open arms trying to justify terrorism against politicians risking their lives for their country. We don't see many of those anymore.

We tend to get big mouthed small brained knuckleheads like Governor Huckabee. Take my advice, don't join him.

in somewhat of a defense of sharky, i can say that its always tragic when a political leader is murdered in such as way, along w/ so many innocent people.

but its important to put some persepctive on the issue, prior to her assassination Ms. Bhutto was a controversial figure in pakistan and the global community over the years.

there is by no measure a concensus on Ms. Bhutto's validity as a peacemaker, human rights activist, pakistani vangaurd or any such label the media has affixed to her in wake of her death.

there is a tendency to inflate the virtuous traits of anyone who has passed away, but this only can go so far.

Ms. Bhutto's father is responsible for making Pakistan a nuclear power during his reign. while out of office Ms. bhutto appeared to be the Western worlds answer to a democratic and nuclear free pakistan. once in power this all changed. her stance was often grey or she claimed the matter of nuclear weapons rested with the military chiefs so entrenched in pakistan's politics and not her.

the taliban came to power while she ruled pakistan, and it is widely accepted that pakistan was on the whole complicit in many actions supporting taliban and pashtun militia's during this period of afghanistan's destabilization.

Ms. Bhutto was satisfied to critisize pakistan's leaders when out of office, until in office she claimed it was beyond her power to control the infamous ISI, pakistan's spy agency, blaming them for the bulk of pakistan's problems.

Ms. Bhutto was outsed from office twice on corruption charges, both times she claimed the illegitimacy of the pakistani legal system in trumping up the charges. It was the same legal system Ms. Bhutto defended 2 months ago during Mr. Musharaf's call for martial law, citing their courage and need to keep pakistan from slipping into the dark ages, away from the rule of law. how the judiciary suddenly became the vangaurd of justice and truth in such a short period of time is beyond anyone with even a passing understanding of pakistan's corrupt political and legal system.

people fail to appreciate the nature of a state like pakistan, it is largely poor, over %25 unemployment, with large swaths of the state seeking independance. pakistan has only nominal control over its norther territories bordering afghanistan. its people, the pashtuns associate more a common identity with fellow afghan pashtuns than pakistani country men.

pakistan for all intents and purposes is a 3rd world nation with a 2nd world military, and nuclear weapons. its leader is viewed by its muslim majority as a faulty secular leader. Ms. Bhutto was viewed in much the same light. What she claimed to do in pakistan was never clear consider that all its past leaders, as with most leaders have made grandiose speeches but little else by way of delivering on their promises.

much more will come of this assassination but its not the first attempt on her life, nor was she the only one being targeted. pakistan is a powder keg with its hands in the dealings of india, afghanistan and increasing instability. Ms. Bhutto's assassination is disheartening not just that she was killed but that it is a symptom of much greater problems in that state.

it pains me to say this but the more one studies pakistan the more i cant help but feel sorry for its people because the nation has never known peace or prosperity, and likley never will, by design it cant possibly succeed without major major chage. and it likely will get worse before it gets better. people seem to believe a new president or another election will magically change 60 years of continual corruption and violence. it will not without broader change.

it has failed to care for its own people in the most basic way, yet has spent so much effort ammassing a huge military complex and a world class intelligence agency. as if things werent bad enough they have meddeled in afghanistan and continue to do so, with little protest from NATO nations who's soldiers are at risk thanks to them.

they continue to be at odd's with india, while both nations should prioritize bringing clean water and food to its starving masses not more weapons and military power.

Ms. Bhutto was a cog in a much larger mechanism which made many grandiose promises but failed to deliver time and time again. Her death is a tragedy as is any death, but it is by no means a martyrdom, she did not die for a cause anyone can clearly show was worthwhile with evidence outside of political speeches.

all the best, and comments are always welcome.

J

Speaking of New Year's Resolutions, here is a an excerpt from Newman's "Idea Of A University" which describes a "Gentleman" (or "Gentlewoman" as one may assume)and the manner in which they conduct discourse.

"If he engages in controversy of any kind, his disciplined intellect preserves him from the blundering of less educated minds which like blunt weapons tear and hack instead of cutting clean, who mistake the point in argument, waste their strength on trifles, misconceive their adversary, and leave the question more involved than they find it. He may be right or wrong in his opinion, but he is too clear-headed to be unjust. He is as simple as he is forceful and as brief as he is decisive."

And looky there, you prove it again.

No facts, we get the work of a "journalist" without footnotes or citing of fact. We get rumors and gossip.

The latest post is nothing more than the first unjustified opinionated post written by a newspaper. Again no facts, just allegations and no prosecutions.

I can't imagine why General Musharraf would stop investigations into two military coups and the overthrow of a TWICE ELECTED Prime Minister.

Here's the deal about democracy sharkie....the voters of the country get to choose their leaders. You and the New York Times don't get a vote. The people elected her twice and the military removed her. The investigations don't happen, just like they wont happen into her murder, because it will reveal the truth and those IN POWER will not like that.

We could trump up some "charges" against you too sharkie. And we could print them in the times and post them here.

It simply doesn't make it fact.

shark-

none of the accounts surprise (and i don't know anything about her, so will accept the facts as the Times reports them):

power 'corrupts' all of us...i don't think anyone (myself included) is capable of not abusing it to some degree->even my own kids would have ample reason to criticize me for lapses in judgment and (both apparent and real) contradictory statements...

none of us are one-dimensional->many facets to our personalities...on top of that, every act is a response to (ever-)changing needs/situations/moods->so no surprise to find that one whose statements are publicly followed and preserved will be found to make (apparently) contradictory or rude remarks (but were they only perceived as such, and what was/is the reporter's role/agenda?)....

of course, when it comes to persistent character flaws and intentional acts of abuse (terrorism, embezzlement), then i'm all for exposing "unpopular truths." (and still not surprised ;)

good to have you back....

WM- in danger of dropping below the teens? seems like yesterday i was trading it in the twenties->we have a ways to go before returning to buy-and-hold in the financials, IMO...

isaiah- re the tradelog software for schedule D->did you notice the most difficult part of the program will be entering the "starting line up?" i'm seriously considering going to all cash by monday close to simplify the process...

I would imagine the history of Bhutto is much less relevant then what the RESULTS of her assassination will be. I'm not nearly as concerned over her personal history as I am over what her death is going to bring about in Pakistan. Keep in mind that it is a nuclear armed country now and it is also walking a line between secular government and fundamentalist islam. This situation could turn nasty FAST.

2nd

On the Trader Log software.. I downloaded the 30 day trail version [allows only 20 trades] but have yet to set it up. Are you plan on getting this software?

[U got mail]

Craig,

Mostly, a good post. I certainly agree there is no justification for murder. Just wish you hadn't ended it the way you did.

"We tend to get big mouthed small brained knuckleheads like Governor Huckabee."

How is this slander any more justified and supported with facts than calling HC a crook?

Let's put it in perspective then.

Our President and Vice President have been alleged to commit far greater injustices which we have more verifiable availability of fact than we have for the leaders of countries like Pakistan.
We don't get the top secret documents of the CIA going back to Bhutto's father or how we influenced and corrupted many of the governments of the middle and far east. You don't suppose we were playing the same game in Pakistan we have been playing in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, SA, etc. over the years do you?

If there were to be an attack of some kind on them and they were injured or killed, I can't help but wonder what the discourse here might be.

Would Sharkie and Dr. Cosa try to justify their murder or injury, or would they see it for what it is?

Would they write how GW and Cheney were crooked and corrupt in the present government and as the past heads of oil conglomerates etc. etc. and so their death/injury was somehow justified, or would they be outraged by the attack?

It seems so easy for some people to justify violence and death based on, at best, questionable historical information subject to manipulation by all sides. In response: Where are the weapons of mass destruction?

You see, we don't know the facts and that is a problem in these matters.

I'm not interested in sides. I have no dog in this fight. What I want is decency.

Zenob,

You are correct. The nuclear concerns regarding Pakistan were discussed many months ago, and then were let to quietly smolder. Nothing has changed there, it's just in the news again. Of all the middle east countries, because Pakistan is a nuclear armed country, it is the most coveted by the extremists and the place to watch for major geopolitical events that will move markets. Btw, I read that US troops are going to Pakistan now. Can't find the link.

In truth it probably isn't, but he made similar *public* statements about Bhutto and Pakistan...and he's running for President.

Bhutto's dead, she get's no comment.
Huckabee is campaigning, we can respond and he can defend his positions...or not.

My characterization is completely biased and based on Huckabee's latest public statements which I find.....to be generous, limited in scope and intelligence. His statments are rediculous, my response, perhaps not my best.

There are two things that I don't want to get involved in - religion and politics. No one wins

Read the following article. It Looks a lot serious problem than the murder of Bhutto.

Creeping Fascism: From Nazi Germany to Post 9/11 America

"Americans today are seeing the same sheepish submissiveness that characterized Germany after the burning of the Reichstag."

http://www.alternet.org/story/71881/

Andrew Forrest

Andrew is now Australia's wealthiest person ahead of James Packer due to his iron ore company.

See a protion of my psot from Nov 19 in relation to a discussion on WHY.V

"..... This will be one of those stocks that is hard to judge because it will not be like any others that we can compare with. We will be relying on information from the company itself to make our judgements and this could be dangerous if they have an optimistic promoter.

On the other hand it may need an optimistic promoter to push through any barriers that may come up.

This reminds me a bit of Andrew Forrest from Australia who started Anaconda Nickel and built a very complex lateritic nickel mine in the middle of outback Australia when eveyone said it could not be done. Glencore owned 40%. Well it struggled but Ni price went up at the right time and it survived commissioning problems and is now a cash cow.

In about 2002 Andrew Forrest left the company and it changed its name to Minara.

Since then Andrew started up his own iron ore company and took on Rio Tinto in the courts to gain access to their railway line which was key to his company's deposit being a success.

See below where Andrew made a paper profit of $ 1 billion in one day last week and is now Australia's 2nd richest person behind James Packer.

http://tinyurl.com/24l5fm

So this is a long way of saying that there are some risks but sometimes these risks pay off handsomely."

Andrew Forrest

See link on article I forgot to attach in previous post.

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/11/caras_commentary_community_cha_71.html

Hey Bill, to answer your question, I have one big request: just keep pointing to the big players in the financial game and saying what it is you think they are doing. That has been the most helpful to me, not stock tip or forecasts (though those are always interesting and the forecasting is necessary and inevitable), but knowing what "the markets" and the people who have the most power in the markets are up to. To me, that is part of social equity, because I am powerless. If there is a way you can keep doing that for free, that would be great.

If you get into subscriber areas or paid financial advice, I'm all for that, too, as I regularly subscribe to financial web sites if it's affordable (I'd have to underline that last word).

Other than that, the Cara 100 lists are really useful, and any more thoughts or lists on up-and-coming areas, i.e. juniors or income-producing stocks, or small energy companies would be really useful. I think going forward we (the people) are going to get milked, as you say, and ways to help ameliorate that situation would be very helpful.

Hey, I'm glad for anything you do. It's free right now and I boot my computer every day in gratitude but not with any expectation on how long it will last. There are other resources on the World Wide Web that I find very useful, but I just enjoy the ongoing financial education that I'm getting here right now, for as long as it may last.

Well, gotta get back to work....

Thanks as always for your effort Bill.

In case if you have not seen it.

Mining Industry: Cash Flow is Key to Quality in 2008

http://seekingalpha.com/article/58536-mining-industry-cash-flow-is-key-to-quality-in-2008

Bill,

Just a sincere THANK YOU for all your work in 2007. Count me as one of the many who are deeply grateful for your insight, wisdom and expertise. Looking forward to another prosperous year with you at the Helm!

Cheers,
Ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

Can anyone explain the resiliency of India's mkt, whether looking at the actual country BSE 30 index or the domestic etn/INP? Is the chaos in Pakistan good for India?

CRUCIFIED BY YOUR HOUSE

A good read.

http://firedoglake.com/2007/12/22/cruficied-by-your-house/

this article also has some very interesting comments as well.

" ... now we have free trade with China. They send us poisoned toys and tainted seafood, and we send them fraudulent securities. Who is the winner here?"

Offshoring Interests and Economic Dogma
Shrinking the US Dollar from the Inside-Out

Today capital is as internationally mobile as traded goods, and knowledge-based production functions have the same relative cost ratios regardless of the country of location. The famous Ricardian conditions for free trade are not present in today's world.

In the most important development in trade theory in 200 years, the distinguished mathematician Ralph Gomory and the distinguished economist and former president of the American Economics Association, William Baumol, have shown that the case for free trade was invalid even when the Ricardian conditions were present in the world. Their book, Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests, first presented as lectures at the London School of Economics, was published in 2000 by MIT Press.

While free trade economists hold on to their doctrine-turned-ideology, the US dollar and the American economy are dying.

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts12132007.html

g034 (was that your call sign in the pit?), dr. cosa and other gold-watchers,

The gold miners seem to be leading the metal again, a healthy sign, even as gold approaches important resistance at its recent high.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar ended its headlong plunge this week right on the neckline of the tiny inverse head and shoulders. Should we expect a bounce?

Updated charts at:

http://tinyurl.com/2ktedf

I've noticed that more companies are raising cash by selling off their parts....and these parts are from financial companies. Might even include purchases by Buffett of Marmon.

The fact that smart money is making these purchases would it nor argue that we might be in a consolidation phase rather than closer to a top? Buffett is a patient man...he could wait for cheaper prices, though the deal with the Pritzker family is not the best of examples seeing that there are other considerations and Marmon is not exactly on par with the debt oriented assets.

Others are much better informed here; still it makes sense to me that when the sick assets are being sold then the element of uncertainty is on its way to being lifted.

I wouldn't take any newspaper's news stories as gospel because of their editorial slant. Not the New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune or others. Not even my local newspaper. But, if I know their bias, then I factor that in. Same goes for watching TV news.

Politics are always controversial and there's probably a grain of truth in most accounts. Still, I wouldn't dance on someone's grave.

Isaiah wrote to me on Friday:

> Looks like you put a lot of thought into your game plan, it sounds good.

An alternative plan would be to sell all my longs in miners/explorers (and possibly just play in and out of shorting the financials), as some people on this blog feel that money should be invested into winners rather than into losers. However, I think that the winning sectors can get out of favor at any time, and you will effectively have bought your stocks at the top. So I don’t mind buying an out-of-favor stock and holding it for a year or more if I feel that I can make a 30% annual profit on it eventually (as long as I can do trading in other positions, I will still keep making money from general market fluctuations). Given the deteriorating global economic environment (and hence the downward pressure on the interest rates), and given the current solution trend by central banks of injecting liquidity and causing inflation, I do agree with Bill’s assessment of gold making new highs in 2008, and so a position in miners/explorers that are down by as much as 50% in the last few months has a huge potential upside in my opinion (sectors tend to rotate in being in-and-out of favor, and when miners get in-favor, they will easily make up this 50% loss). If “maromatics” turns out to be right in his prediction (made at the end of Thursday’s discussion) of liquidity drying up at the beginning of 2008 and all asset classes going down including gold, then I expect to compensate the losses in my longs by shorting the financials.

> One question...how are you shorting? Buying puts?

I did buy short-dated puts a few times during the past year on some subprime mortgage lenders, but I closed my positions a few days later with very nice gains. That is, I was using puts as a very short-term play when I felt that a short-squeeze has occurred or when the stock has just broken through its long-term support level. Since October, I was short selling CFC, BZH, and FRE, trying to time my entry right after a short squeeze (or a market rebound) and closing my positions when I felt that the weakness was coming to an end and the next rebound rally was likely to occur (e.g., when the market had a large decline on a low volume before Thanksgiving or at the beginning of the mid-December rally (when the market was expecting the Santa Clause rally, which did occur as a self-fulfilling prophecy)). I was also going in and out of SKF, and more recently FXP (or short selling FXI). I also opened a large position in QID in October when it was $35 (as I was very surprised by the August-October rally in technology in the face of an unfolding financial crisis) and held it until it hit $41 in early November, but then figured that this is a financial crisis, and so I should stick to shorting the financials.

Now about long-dated put options. Let’s say I buy June 08 put on XLF at the strike price of $25 for $1.1, as I would be very surprised if XLF does not reach $25 before June 08. Let’s say it hits $25 in March. At that point, I will be holding a 3-month at the money put, which is now selling for $1.8. This is a very approximate calculation, but I think it suffices given the very subjective timing estimates I am making (if anyone can suggest a better way of estimating a potential upside/downside in options, I am all ears). Now, let’s remember that anything can happen in the market, and let’s assign a 0.5 probability to this scenario. Let’s assign a 0.25 probability to the scenario of XLF staying at 29 in March, in which case my option would be worth $0.6 (based on the current March pricing). The fact that XLF will most likely be between $25 and $29 in March 08 is reasonably well captured by the two extreme scenarios considered above. Finally, let’s say that XLF will be higher than $29 in March with probability 0.25, in which case my option will be worth, say $0.2. The expected worth of $1 invested into this strategy is 0.5*(1.8/1.1) + 0.25*(0.6/1.1) + 0.25*(0.2/1.1) = $0.86. This tells me that purchasing a long-dated put option and holding it for half of its maturity (it is dangerous to hold an option for a longer period of time, as its value generally evaporates at an increasing rate over time) is not as profitable as going in-and-out of shorting XLF (or buying SKF), as I expect many market fluctuations to occur between now and March, and I expect to make at least a 10% profit on each fluctuation, as I was doing it in the past.

If someone can criticize my reasoning above, I would be very thankful and gladly think it over.

Mr. Craig,

i always like a good discussion, even if it gets heated.

you clearly have strong feelings on the issue and take exception to what sharkie has posted and apparently to what i have posted. im not sure if some of your comments were directed only to sharkie to my initial post but it certainly wasnt a newspaper article and im no journalist. most of the geo-political opinions posted on this blog do not contain footnotes.

i didnt post sources because its a subject im quite familiar with and if youd like some actual sources and data id be happy to send them your way, unfortunately i dont think you are in any way interested in said sources because of 2 critical flaws in your arguments:

1. taking the stance that i agree with sharkie
regarding his comments on being happy about
the assassination.

i am not and never implied i was. i was expressing concern that a persons death in the political realm does not make them immune from criticsm of their life, and the accomplishments or labels attached to them immediately following their death.

2. you feel a lack of sources is of concern

you in fact have no real argument, nor have you offered any real counter rationale to the points i have made.

had i posted links to sources you could have just as easily refuted them as biased, or the twisting of facts.

one need only google Ms. Bhutto and read various pieces on her done prior to her death for a painstakingly clear take on the controversies that surrounded her political career. you may come to your own conclusion then.

Aussieontop,
What is your take on Pinetree Capital PNP.TO? I started accumulating it on Friday. I have tried for several days to buy in but it would not come to me. It did on a down day. I like the fact that I can spread the risk over several explorers including WHY. With all of the almost daily news on Uranium/Neclear plant construction, Pinetree will capitalize on the process due to their stock selection heavy on Uranium plays.

Moneygenie, I would like to add something to your post on happiness & meditation at the end of Friday’s discussion. Based on what I heard from many meditation teachers and based on my own analysis of my mind during meditation, it seems to me that unhappiness is purely the result of our current thoughts, and it is sufficient to just bring your mind to the present moment to get rid of ALL unhappiness. That is, you don’t have to think that benefits of meditation are only available to long-time meditators. They are available to EVERYONE at any moment, who is willing to start observing his/her mind and not believing the thoughts come and go of their own rhythm.

Bill,
Thanks for sharing your extensive knowledge and insights. My trading has greatly improved since you "opened my eyes" about 9 months ago to big picture of how the world capital markets function. I'm looking forward to improving my dance steps in 2008 with your guidance.

The main trading points I have learned this year are:

1. World markets really affect the US market.
2. Hope never starts a good trade.
3. Buying options less than 2 months from expiration is too risky.
4. Being 100% short or long is risky.
5. Always buy calls on a day the stock tanks and buy puts on a day the stock soars(only for stocks where I'm buying long-term options)
6. Always have enough profitable positions on hand or cash to take advantage of opportunities.
7. set my profit/loss goal before I open a position and stick to it.
8. Keep emotions out of trading as much as possible.
9. I am not leading the dance.
10. Don't argue with trends or fight the market.

Thanks for everything Bill and Happy New Year!!

On the inflation front, our Health Insurance is going from $355 every two weeks in 2007 to $476 every two weeks in 2008.

How will the CPI account for that increase? It's money coming out of our pocket so it has to be inflation right? Just another obstacle for the consumer to overcome to save the economy.

Rob.

i want to thank bill for everything he has tried to teach me.. i am a senior with very little money to live on for the rest of my life so preservation is more important than big wins. i am now doing my financial stuff my self so any mistakes i make are mine. i am trying to learn. so much further to go. ann

I got a late Xmas present folks.

To my surprise on the 28th I got dividents for my ULTRASHORTS.

DXD .62369/share
FXP .33087/share
QID .47092/share

Mmmmm...sometimes I do better by not selling!

:^)

Franklin,

No, not my acronym, but it was my portfolio manager number once...

#34 Walter Payton - greatest football player to ever play, IMO.

Health Care Delivery...i bought this sector a couple of weeks ago/IHF as a 9percent position and expect to hold it for a while. Personally have a pension with health benefits...knock on wood..but my wife has private and it won't be long until I place her on my insurance plan to get so called group rate, now about what finger lakes is paying for I suppose more than one person.

As us baby boomers age our bucks are going to stop going into second homes and portfolios etc; money will flow like a dammed river into health. An overnight hospitalization with routine testing runs over 20K; personal experience. The question is who/what will be the winners among the usual list: pharmacies, pharma, hospitals, insurers, medical devices? Currently, scams for reversing the aging process are cleaning up in the retirement states of florida and arizona...so I hear. Then there's the future of government.

jasper - countries with economic growth greater than their inflation will perform at the top in 2008, IMO.

Bill,

I'm new to your website and enjoy reading you comments regarding the market. I was in the process of purchasing your book but stopped when it displayed the cost of delivery as $30.00. I do hope you consider offering your book in an electronic format since I would of had it by now.

Thanks,

Wally

Dr. Cosa,
I'm sorry, I must have misunderstood your initial sentence as agreeing with sharkie or in defense of what he said.

I have no disagreement with the content of the rest of your post. As I said, I have no dog in this fight. I'm not interested in building up nor tearing down. Opinion doesn't necessarily rely on fact or footnote, but if it is a character attack, then the poster needs to be challenged on those accusations and provide facts. Sadly we will never know what might have been had Bhutto not been killed, good or bad.

My point is that it *should* have been the decision of the Pakistani people. They should have been the sole judges as to whom would govern them and whether any previous accusations were of concern to them.

I have no illusion that armed with nuclear weapons, we will ever allow the government or people of Pakistan to make such decisions without our constant meddling.

I suspect that Finger Lakes speaks for a lot of us. In addition, here are some of the things that I can thank you for, Bill:

1. I think in terms of managing my risk much more
than I ever did before I found your blog. I think about risk for my portfolio as a whole, for my individual accounts (I have four: a taxable account, an IRA, an inherited IRA and a Roth
IRA) as well as the risk for each new position.

2. I now use RSIs, something I never knew about.

3. I have learned that it really does pay to let prices "come to me". Patience is a gift that really does pay in so many ways, including in cold, hard cash.

4. I bought -- and held -- on to GLD, something I would not have been able to do without your help, insight and encouragement. (I bought GLD before I found this blog.)

5. Be smart: keep cash at the ready to take advantage of buying opportunities.

Thanks Bill!

Happy New Year to you and your family -- and thanks for helping to make my "old" year profitable.

Jasper,
Yes, that is the group family rate. But don't you think that's a sharp increase in cost. It makes me wonder if the New York Insurers: Blue Cross and Preferred Care may have invested some money in CDO's or SIV's.

Rob.

If I had even the slightest leanings towards voting for Ron Paul, those leanings are over now.

For starters, here a video of Ron Paul denying evolution:
http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/2007/12/26/just-in-case-you-thought-ron-paul-wasnt-so-bad/

Secondly here's a massive write up with tons of links of some of the various bizarre behavior he's engaged in. I knew he was a bit wacky but I had NO clue he was this nutty. Some of his ideas are good, but I'll be damned if I'll put up with all of his craziness in order to get the 2 or 3 good ideas he's got:
http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2007/12/ron_paul_quackery_enabler.php

With which part of Ron Paul's statement that "I don't think anyone has absolute truth on either side" do you disagree?

He says he doesn't "believe" in theory. Read Karl Popper if you want to understand the role of theory in scientific thought. It is not a question of "belief" (which is religious or propagandistic claim of emotional affiliation), but rather of whether or not a theory is falsifiable and supported by factual evidence.

Evolution can be a very useful explanatory structure.It either works or it does not in a given context. So is gravity. But even Newton found it difficult to believe in action at a distance. Don't forget that the history of science is the history of discredited theories; they all eventually fall before the quest to find more adequate explanation--unless "belief" has quelled the search!

In the video clip you cite Dr. Paul's main assertion is that evolution is not the defining issue of the US political circumstance.--individual liberty is the crucial matter before us.

The scienceblogs.com site is so over-the-top I find it discredits itself.

My Friends,

The Military and Nukes of Pakistan are paid for by "We the People" and we do not wish to feed the hungry nor enrich the poor of Pakistan or any other stan, plain and simple. But the almighty $ holds no power over tribal revenge philosophy and they are not impressed by the reportage of experts. They kill by divine right, same as we assume we must rule by.

it's the neverending story and right and wrong is in the eye of the beholder.

Perhaps we ought to focus on electing a GOOD woman or man because,only goddness will suffice in this.

moneygenie,
America is a country divided. Whoever becomes the next U.S. President will receive just slightly more than half of the vote just like George Bush did, twice. Interestingly, GW managed to bring a vast majority Americans together to "liberate" Iraq and "legally" lynch Saddam Hussein and kill his offspring (quite biblical really). What goal will the next President use to unify America?

moneygenie,
America is a country divided. Whoever becomes the next U.S. President will receive just slightly more than half of the vote just like George Bush did, twice. Interestingly, GW managed to bring a vast majority Americans together to "liberate" Iraq and "legally" lynch Saddam Hussein and kill his offspring (quite biblical really). What goal will the next President use to unify America?

Posted by: Fred at December 29, 2007 11:34 PM

Fred,

Is that "your truth"? or are you kidding?

Ok..taking a break from polishing trading plan..whew..quite a bit more work than last year...must be all the mistakes i made...oops..still talking politics on this site I see...back to mind, money and markets for me...have a great weekend..better to be rich than right..

For starters, the word theory in science has a different meaning then someone saying "I have a theory as to who stole my sandwich". In science for something to rise to the level of a theory it has to have an overwhelming amount of evidence backing it up. For example, the theory of gravity, the theory of relativity, the germ theory of disease, etc. Evolution is one of the most researched and supported theories in science. There are hundreds of thousands of peer reviewed scientific experiments that all support evolution.

Also the term "absolute truth" has no meaning scientifically. In science there is no such thing as absolute truth. Everything in science is provisional. Anything is open to either being disproven or revised. The catch is that in order for this to happen there has to be some actual scientific evidence involved(creationists skip this part). Also when a better theory comes along it doesn't mean that the previous theory is wrong. The theory of relativity didn't "disprove" Newton. Newtonian physics still works, it just doesn't work as well as relativity. Quantum mechanics doesn't disprove relativity etc. Eventually a new theory will come to be that will tie all three of those together, a Grand Unified Theory of physics. Evolution IS the Grand Unified Theory of biology. Nothing in evolution makes sense except in light of evolution. In 150 years all the evidence has supported it, none has contradicted it.

Karl Popper at one time criticized evolution claiming that natural selection was a tautology. After natural selection was explained to him, he retracted his claim.

As for Ron Paul, even if I was to overlook him being a fundamentalist(let's be honest, there isn't any reason other then religious ones to deny evolution) I can't overlook his associations with racists or his pandering to quack "medical" groups, his desire to basically strip government down to virtually nothing, etc. There is zero way I could support him. The amount of crazy in the man far outweighs the prudent financial sense.

Just reviewed etf folder.
GDX moving up the ranks and technicals make it look ripe for some, and about to be even more ripe for others. January effect includes currencies, namely the usdollar, so odds may favor a bumpy road for gdx.

moneygenie,
I pray for a more peaceful, gentler world. I do believe that the Iraq war was an illegal act of aggression by the U.S. I'm not alone, the UN and Canada were opposed to the invasion. Depending on which statistics you believe, 50,000 to one million Iraqis have now died as a result of the U.S. invasion and I can still vividly remember the corpse of Saddams son indignantly and illegally laid out by the U.S. forces for photographers. I believe that GW wanted Saddam dead. Maybe he was trying to please his father. Sadly, American citizens and the leaders of both parties supported the invasion against the wishes of most of the rest of the developed world.

stktrader,

Thanks for the lead to Pinetree. Also glad to see Aussieontop is back. I was wondering what you envision as the potential for Pinetree? Over what time horizon are you looking to invest in it? I'm concerned, because it had a huge run up in March-April where its stock price got up to around 15 and it is now priced at 4.45. Looking at the weekly Stockchart, the volume since last August has been tremendous as the stock has traded in the 4 to 7 range. I also notice that the MACD histogram is showing positive divergence and the stochastics and RSIs are very low on the weekly chart. I took a long look at Pinetree's website and it appears the stock is now priced at NAV. I noticed that Khan Resources was not in their list of uranium stocks. They do have, among others, Valgold and Aurelian. By the way, what do you think of Laramide?

The most important thing that I have learned this year from all of you here is: "locking in profits" my biggest weakness has been to get too attached. With Bill's "voice" and all your daily "actions" as examples it has finally sunk in and I am richer for it, not only financially but also emotionally. I have seen great progress in my ability to get off and on the rollercoaster of the ups and downs of these lovely PM "stories". The discourse here is so important to someone like me because I learn so much from witnessing everyone's struggle to put the theories into action. The honesty of so many contributors revealing the winning and losing trades here and the quality of the exchanges has been most valuable in my education. This is a living breathing "book". In fact I feel Bill's "book" has already been published! This is it! Congratulations Bill! You have given us the living experience of your book before we get to read it. It is the highest level of education as far as I am concerned!
I wish for everyone a happy and healthy 2008.
Cheers

Isaiah, what you actually received was an annual "distribution". Here's the details for the ProShares ETFs:

http://www.proshares.com/funds/distributions

P.S. - I was pleasantly surprised, too. ;)

number2son....

Call it what you may...but when ever I stumble across free $$$$ ... I feel like I am in a TOYOTA commercial... "Oooooo What A Feeling"

So I take it you got a late Xmas present too?

:^)

Welcome aboard Ann. I'm a senior who has also learned a lot about finances from Bill.

Nell

Posted by: David at December 29, 2007 2:27 PM

David,

Re: “ you don’t have to think that benefits of meditation are only available to long-time meditators. They are available to EVERYONE at any moment, who is willing to start observing his/her mind and not believing the thoughts come and go of their own rhythm.”

My personal experience has been that willingness is not enough since we are creatures of habit for the most part therefore, meditation is a technique to form new habits such as ---- observing your mind so you can notice when you are not dwelling in the NOW. I find that the Quiet experienced in meditation helps me to notice when I am listening to Noise outside of Now.

I thought the article was interesting and shared it so others might become curious and seek. All roads lead to Rome but one must be on the road in order to get there. Meditation is a tool/road. JMHO.

number2son

Were you holding any DIG [Ultra Oil & Gas]?

I saw on that link you posted, it paid 1.17673/share. And it was up $1.71 Friday. Not bad.

Isaiah, yes I had DXD, SDS and UPP at the time of distribution. No DIG, though. BTW, DXD and SDS were losing positions at the time. Sold DXD and SDS for the tax loss -- the distrib. eased the sting. Sold UPP when the $ did an about face for marginal gain.

My friends,

Yes, we trade prices but the trick to trade or not to trade lies in seeing the big picture.
JMHO.
Pakistan's politics to be played out in Britain

By Matthew d'Ancona
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 30/12/2007

……… “To head a government - or to seek to regain high office, in Ms Bhutto's case - is to join a very exclusive global club of human targets: those who risk extinction simply by turning up to work in the morning. On Thursday, each of them thought: there but for the grace of God.
At such moments, all politicians claim that ordinary politics has been suspended by grief, that the world needs time to mourn and heal before normal service is resumed. Scratch the surface, however, and politics is invariably fizzing away: odds are laid, positions tested and action prepared.
In this case, one did not have to scratch very far.
The lead was taken in the US, where Barack Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, said that his candidate had opposed the war in Iraq precisely because it would divert resources from the fight against al-Qa'eda and its affiliates.
"Senator Clinton made a different judgment, so let's have that discussion," declared Mr Axelrod - as close as he could get to saying that Hillary pulled the trigger, without actually doing so.
In Westminster, with no election imminent, the politics is less explicit. But it is there all the same.
On Friday, Nirj Deva, a Tory MEP and spokesman on international development, broke cover on the website conservativehome.blogs.com in order to apportion blame.
"Through their collective failure to crack down on the extremism that is Pervez Musharraf's dictatorship," he wrote, "Western governments have not just Benazir Bhutto's blood on their hands… but that of scores of civilians who have died in terrorist attacks around the world."
The significance of Mr Deva's outburst is that he said in public what many more senior Tories are saying in private. "We are heading towards an appeasement mentality," one shadow cabinet member told me. "I just don't think Brown focuses on this in any sort of systematic way."
In the week before Ms Bhutto's assassination, the Conservatives had been harrying the Prime Minister on the question of prospective negotiations with the Taliban.
Now, in the wake of fresh bloodshed, Gordon Brown faces a much more pressing series of questions about an Islamic nuclear power that may yet become a failed state.
Principally, he must decide how far and with what conditions to back George W Bush's Pakistan policy - which has been, for six years, "Musharraf, right or wrong."
In particular, the PM must decide how intensively, and how publicly, the British Government should now deal with Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League (N): a calculation which has been made more complex by Sharif's pledge to boycott elections if they go ahead on January 8.
Mr Bush's loyalty to Pakistan's president is longstanding and deep, born in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. How Mr Brown handles the Musharraf Question may well be the first real test of the supposedly recalibrated special relationship.
The PM will be mindful that Tony Blair's alliance with Bush over the Lebanese conflict was the proximate cause of the September coup against him in 2006.
While it is hardly likely that Labour backbenchers will rise up against Gordon if he makes the wrong call over Pakistan, the PM will not want to be seen to be supporting a failed presidency in Islamabad merely to placate a failed presidency in Washington.
What has this to do with domestic British politics? Everything. Mr Brown likes to say that "over there is now here" - a more demotic version of Mr Blair's doctrine of global "interdependence". There could be no more vivid illustration of this principle than the fate of Pakistan in 2008........

http://tinyurl.com/3b7ojt

number2son

You are bigger man than me. I held on to my DXD because I must love pain or the color red. :^)

Hopefully verrrrrrrrrrrry early in 2008 the bears will come out and feast a little and I can say goodby to DXD with it in the green.

"Sold UPP when the $ did an about face for marginal gain"

Isn't that a killer! In 2007 I experienced that many times, but the gain was not marginal, in fact at times it was "exceptional". [ooouch]

aucourant,
Pinetree is a favorite of James Dines. The stock can move big whenever Dines talks about it in his newletter. Bill has also had quality comments about Sheldon Wentworth who manages the company. I was trying to get in from $4 usd but it just kept going higher. Maybe tomorrow will be a good day to get a good price as well with tax loss selling. Why should I try to pick the best explorers when someone that spends all of his business life with all of the connections can do it for me? It just makes sense for me. Cameco just seems like a bad choice unless it trades below 33 usd. With the problems at Cigar Lake it just seems risky. PNPFF could easily be back up in the teens in 6-9 months.

And don't forget NOT.V. That stock could take off quickly from the low $4's. Richard Nemis, the CEO, stated last week that the new drill results will be out early January 08. A quality company with an investor relations CEO that knows his business. agoracom.com has a chat board just for that stock with some smart posters there; even a Canadian geologist commenting. Posters talk directly with Richard regularly about the company and the stock price.

stktrader,
A couple of friendly corrections to your posting. I believe that the last day for tax loss selling in Canada was Dec. 24 and in the United States it was Dec. 26. Three business days are needed to clear the transactions. Also, Sheldon Inwentash is Chairman and CEO of Pinetree.

when It comes to taxes, I consider Intuit to be a reliable source.

http://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/top_10_year_end_tax_tips/article

"As far as the IRS is concerned, a gain or loss should be reported on the return for the year the trade occurs, regardless of when settlement takes place. That means profits and losses taken as late as the closing bell on New Year's Eve go on the current year's return."

Anyone care to comment on GLD. What worries me is the declining volume - perhaps this latest move is simply a short squeeze?

JogyP,
I don't know what the correct tax loss selling dates are. Attached is a CBC article with December 24 (Can) and December 26 (US) dates.
http://tinyurl.com/22h8xx

cyderman...re:GLD...if you use the RSI7 daily and weekly model..is GLD in accumulation or distribution? If you use chart patterns....are you trading a breakout or do you see a potential double top in the making...where is prior resistance...what is your exit point and stops?

My random thoughts on the Benazir Bhutto discussion
The danger of forming an opinion on a person or a subject matter based on a New York Times article is that, by the time you get a correction from NYT, it may be too late.
New York Times Corrects Blog About Ron Paul That "Should Not Have Been Published" http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/27/pageoneplus/27correx.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
New York Times admits they messed up on the WMD story
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C06E7DC1E3EF933A05756C0A9629C8B63

I have no personal connection to Pakistan or Benazir Bhutto, but I have read numerous articles from various sources on Pakistan and Mrs. Bhutto over the last 30 years and I for one had a positive opinion on Mrs. Bhutto and her fight for democracy against the military junta which killed her father. I was very saddened when I heard the news about the assassination and even more when I heard people expressing happiness over it.
Benazir’s list of enemies include the military dictatorship in Pakistan and their friends and relatives in US and Canada, Taliban, Al-Qaida, Men who don’t like women on top, and people got ill informed by the propaganda from Bhutto haters.
When people express extremely negative opinion about world leaders in blogs, I wonder what their motivations are, or whose side they are on.
Dr. Naved Musharraf, the younger brother of Pakistan's president, is an anesthesiologist who lives the Chicago area enjoying the freedom and democracy of the west. When contacted by news media about Bhutto assassination he said “It’s a tragedy”. I wonder what he would be writing about Benazir if he is posting anonymously in a blog as “dr.musha”.
When I hear “Benazir was twice expelled from office amid a swirl of corruption charges”, I ask what other explanation the military can give for overthrowing a democratically elected government. What is the best way to prevent your opponent from coming back to power in the next election? Accuse them of corruption, try them in a Kangaroo court, convict them and ban them from future elections.
“Ms. Bhutto was a controversial figure “: Which leader is not controversial or polarizing?
“the taliban came to power while she ruled Pakistan” : It’s as silly as saying 9-11 happened when Bush was in power or 9-11 happened because of Saddam’s support for Al-Qaida.
If you have a bad opinion about a person you can always find additional dirt on them by ‘googling’ them and you will be served by the web pages setup specifically to serve dirt on that person.
There is no single source for fair, balanced and accurate news reports. But by using a variety of sources from around the world and using our own judgment we can get closer to the truth.
Here is what Benazir wrote why she was returning to Pakistan
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/benazir-bhutto/why-im-returning-to-paki_b_62792.html

Thanks for the correction Fred on the butchered name. I also have heard it is the date of the sale and not the settlement date. TD Ameritrade just told me that was correct for stocks in the USA.

Industry observers argue that the price needs to be north of $1,000 to reverse the gradual decline in production.

Damm. Miner stocks could have a hard time until then.

EEMTRADER,
I don't have a position in GLD. I was thinking in terms of $GOLD (using it as a proxy, despite Kaimu's warnings). I'm long miners in various forms, mostly as long term holds, as I don't do well trading, despite reading Bill's blog for many months (my problem Bill, old dog - slow learner, though I'm using RSI now, a tool new to me, and trying to let prices come to me, so I'm trying a slow waltz for now, having tripped over my own feet when I tried to tango). I use trendline breaks for most signals, and all of a sudden I see a lot of buys (often supported by RSI alerts), so I'm hoping that the low volume in GLD is simply seasonal, and not a sign of a double top. The triangle discussed by go34 and others is looking like a continuation pattern, except that to me its suspect without a surge in volume.

Bill,

My resolution for 2008 is simple: no later than December I will leave my current responsibilities working for HB&B and will start my own family desk.

During these 12 months, it is my responsibility to make all the needed preparations to achieve that goal.

Happy new year to all.

With the new yr i am being very cautious but Activision (ATVI) now owns 17% market share for console software and expect 2008 to be a record yr.
http://tinyurl.com/yp9xga.

I too believe the market will be very weak in 08 but feel there is still some juice to squeeze out of ATVI.

Korvus tool indicates its been in distribution zone. I am closely watching the money flow and macd. http://tinyurl.com/34v887

working link to atvi article.
http://tinyurl.com/yp9xga

From:Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog

"Though the market tends to enjoy somewhat favorable seasonality about this time, through about the first week of the New Year, there is little room before the market is again overbought in an unfavorable market climate. Given high bullish sentiment and the continued likelihood of an oncoming recession, I remain concerned about the potential for steep and abrupt losses (particularly as we move into the New Year).”

Source: John Hussman, Hussman Funds, December 24, 2007

Re: declining volume on GLD

cyderman,

It's quite normal for volume to diminish steadily as a triangle develops and then to pick up on the breakout.

GLD's volume has been quite healthy since the breakout on Wednesday -- if you consider that this is one of the quietest times of the year in the markets and that many stocks (e.g. GE) have been trading at not much more than half their 20-day average volume.

EEMTRADER's checklist for the thought process that one should bring to bear when analyzing a potential investment such as GLD is helpful.

When using RSI (particularly useful for stocks in a trading range), it's worth noting that when a strong uptrend begins, the indicator will often enter overbought territory -- and stay there for much of the ensuing trend. (The converse applies to a strong downtrend.)

In the case of GLD, RSI spent practically all of September above 70 as GLD shot up from about $67 to $74. Again, RSI hung around in the overbought zone in the last week of October and the first part of November as GLD went from $76 to over $82.

That being said, predicting the movements of what Vancouver trader Teresa Lo calls the "dreaded yellow metal" is a tricky game indeed.

The resistance that EEMTRADER alludes to at the potential double top could stall GLD's advance for a while, but after that the question remains for the ETF: Quo vadis?

Gold Bugs....

In Prieur du Plessis’s international investment blog tonight
http://tinyurl.com/2zzndj

The following section is worth checking out.

[About 3/4 to 7/8 down the page see]

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Load up on gold

RE: GLD. Cyderman : Check out the divergence in money flow, very different than the move up from August..might want to check out some other indicators...however you trade..you got to have a system, backtested if you prefer....anything can happen..

BTW....anyone here recall Richard Russell ever recommending that Gold is a sell?

In case Zenob and others missed the link (given above by JogyP at 4:49 PM) correcting errors in New York Times reporting about Ron Paul and extremist groups, here it is again: http://tinyurl.com/2orgyn

NYUGrad,

Re Activision (ATVI): in November this price fell significantly. Then, it spiked up.

In January I see a likelihood that the enthusiasm for this stock won't last too long.

Actually, this would be a very decent short.

Cheers,

“The eagerness of Wall Street analysts to hail the moves by the Fed and ECB as important, without even examining or understanding the data, is a discouraging reminder of how willing many investment professionals are to parrot common misconceptions rather than thinking for themselves. We should not be so alone in pointing out these issues.

“At present, the Fed has injected less than $20 billion in total ‘liquidity’ since March - nearly all of which has been withdrawn from the banking system as currency in circulation. Normally, the Fed would have done a ‘permanent’ open market operation by now, to finance this increase in currency demand (which predictably grows by $30-50 billion annually). But by constantly rolling over temporary repos every week or two instead, the Fed can act as if it is ‘doing more’. In short, the Fed is doing nothing more than predictably rolling over its repos, but with great flourish as if something more is going on."

Source: John Hussman, Hussman Funds, December 24, 2007

Maybe this is the reason why all the liquidity injections have not had a large positive effect on the market, as Bill has noted in the latest WIR.

Bill:

another great Week in Review!

thank you.

regards
joey

re India, how does it keep going up with unrest in the region?

"Initial risk perceptions of geo-political concerns after the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto melted down as the day proceeded. The 30-share Sensex of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) lost 9.77 points or 0.05% before closing at 20,206.95 points while the broader S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) lost 1.8 points or 0.03% before closing at 6,079.70 points.

Amitabh Chakraborty president Religare Securities said, "The markets opened on a negative note mainly on back of weak international cues. The news from Pakistan may come as a blessing in disguise to the Indian markets as the money heading into Pakistan may now be routed into India."

However, massive long positions were built in the mid and the small cap companies and they once again managed to outperform the heavy weights. The BSE Small Cap Index actually touched its all time high of 12,909.82 points before finally closing the day for 12,901.29 points gaining 272.55 points or 2.16%. The BSE Mid Cap Index gained 145.71 points or 1.55% to close at 9,574.57 points. Due to heavy buying in the small- and mid-cap companies, the overall market remained bullish with 2,270 companies gaining in price as against 651 companies which fell, while stock of 32 companies remained unchanged.

Interesting how the CSCO (Cisco) chart looks similar to the XLF (Financial ETF) chart on the daily.

Is anyone here playing gold on the short side? Is there an ultra short gold etf? I agree with Bill that gold will retreat before making a significantly higher move. Any thoughts or recommendations would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Adam

AdamG
I don't know of an ultrashort of gold, but there's a Profunds mutual fund - Short Precious Metals Inv (SPPIX)which "provides inverse exposure to the Dow Jones Precious Metals Index­™", so a linear short with all the disadvantages of a mutual fund when compared to an ETF.

Adamg,

You can sell gold futures, gold options, and gold warrants / turbo warrants.

Cheers,

Hmm, just noticed a typo in my science post above. It should read, "nothing in biology makes since except in the light of evolution". That's what I get for posting while sleepy.