A big imbalance in the put/call ratio on the indexes in favor of the shorts. That money will be withdrawn from them, or at least, attempts will be made. This will be a liquidity contest between the cows and the grizzlies. The cows won in the futures so far and are regurgitating their sputum in anticipation of the grizzlies covering.

Bill

Kudos to you on your BESPy award mentioned in the evening on last night's discourse.

Recognition well deserved.

And thank you from all of us.

WAG- LT position just turned into a ST position->out pre-market...

PNP.TO (PNPFF)->will be unloading at the open...

GFI- half off pre-market...

isaiah- don't see too many gap-ups like this (always unexpected, right)->may be a good day to reload your ultra-shorts->sights on FXP/EEV/QID...

good luck...

- reposting some comments I had put by mistake on yesterday's discourse section -

Bill,

Congratulations.

All,

Here in Europe there is almost nobody in the offices. Even trading desks are already half empty. Institutional clients are already out of the office, and to be honest, the mood in trading rooms is can be described as: "who cares about this now. We´ll do it again next year. Enough is Enough".

My trading desk "de facto" closes at tea time today for drinks and finger food. Who cares about prices any more...

Shopping malls, however, are full albeit people are not necessarily shopping. Highways are jam packed, as people drive outside of the big city.

Today is quadruple witching.

If you are not a poker player, stay out and go have som fun. It is dangerous to trade days like this.

Season's greetings to all!

maromatics- btw, want to thank you for your 128pm post yesterday->xlnt signal, and the main reason i exited my afternoon swing on the short side...

Anyone following the moonshot in RIMM shares following earnings. I haven't studied their results yet, but there seems to be an awful lot of optimism priced into this stock.

And did anybody catch Jon Najarian on Fast Money last night talking his book with regard to a rebound in the financials "soon"? Man, these guys are just shameless.

Bill, congratulations on your Bespy! You deserve that and more. Thank you so much for all that you provide. We are all so grateful, even, and perhaps, even more so, in these perilous times. May you and your family have a wonderful holiday.

2nd,

Thank you for your kind words.

We trade as a team.

Enjoy the holidays!

Cheers,

Congratulations Bill. My continued Thanks and gratitude.

The Daily today is spot on.

I hope the beach is particularly nice today!

The money games the ECB and Fed and the Commonwealth banks are playing are perfect except for one flaw. The swill of cash finds its way into meaningless asset classes like shareprices, as they want. However, it also finds its way into meaningful things, like commodities, and particularly, the softs. Its all fun and games until that 10 dollar wheat finds its way onto bread shelfs.

Bill,
Are you seeing the strange action in the TSX premarket? There are huge sell orders in the energy and metals sectors pushing prices down well below the close yesterday. This is particularily perplexing considering futures are up in the US and comparable US stocks are all up 1-3% I've never seen anything like this.

Ok, the PCE numbers are out and maybe someone can explain how income can come in below expectations while expenditures shoot up? Inflation rears its ugly head once again. And hey, aren't consumers strapped enough already?

http://tinyurl.com/2qh97w

Interesting stock: ARAY
High beam radiation therapy on a robotic arm for cancers throughout the body. $15 stock. 100+ mil in the bank, no debt. Trading at a low. Has own sales force in USA and Europe. I'm buying.

number2son, don't forget that on top of all that, savings went negative (as if they weren't already.). Obviously, people are spending more because things cost more, and there's nothing left over to save at the end of the month. This will no doubt be seen by the market as fabulous news.

Let's see what expiration day brings.

I've just come across an interesting article by George Friedman of Stratfor in which he attempts to answer the question: Why are stock markets not tanking against the background of the sub-prime meltdown and an increasing number of "experts" calling for a US recession? He offers an explanation in an article entitled "China and the Arabian Peninsula as market stabilizers".

Ons may quibble with some of the points, but the story makes for interesting reading.

Here is the link: http://tinyurl.com/2kdaa6

Today should provide a very interesting test in the U.S. stock market:

Scenario A has the market opening strong and trying to re-establish the uptrend. Short-term strength from year-end deal announcements, two upcoming holidays and approaching month-end will fuel the bullish tone for the next 2 weeks.

Scenario B has the market opening strong but then reversing course after 11am (9:30-11am usually prices are marked up). The market will then completely give up all of its gains and actually close down for the day.

Scenario B may come into play because the market's technicals are still very weak and because the decline to the market's previous lows of late-November (from a failed rally try, the 12/11 peak) usually occurs very quickly. So if the stock market is indeed in a bear market downtrend from the October highs, then a reversal of today's opening strenth would not be a surprise. If Scenario B does unfold, then we expect the market to take out the late November lows by late next week/early January.

Should make for an exciting day in the markets today. Stay tuned!

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

Unbelievable!!!!
CNQ
COS>UN
ECA
HSE
IMO
NXY
PCA
SU
TCK>B
LUN
Traded from 500,000 - 1,000,000 shares at the open. I've never seen such huge volume for an opening on the TSX.

Today is quadruple witching.

If you are not a poker player, stay out and go have som fun. It is dangerous to trade days like this.

Season's greetings to all!

Posted by: maromatics at December 21, 2007 9:10 AM

Thanks for the advice.

to Bill and everyone who sharess their thoughts on this blog, im gonna be shutting down for the holidays after today so i wanted to say thank you very much for the daily reports and discourse.

im thankful to have found a site like this and
am greatful for the collective effort put in to give small traders a sense of their place amidst the mess of capital markets.

merry christmas, and happy holidays,

sincerly,

dr. cosa

maro, don't hold the shoe, cut the deck and start dealing. :-). the pre-market hypesters are chips out.

NOT.V-> getting ready to spike?

2nd

Thanks been watching them very closely.... waiting for them to come to me. Hope I don't blink!

Thanks...

You still holding UNG?

Out of GFI at 14.32. Yes, you read that right, that little uptick on the chart is lucky me.
Go figure!

Added to QID and looking at SKF and FXP.

JWibbs- thanks for pointing out Scenario B, as well as when the time of day it may play out...

BMD- can it break a 7 day down-trend today? we're starting to call it Bonehead Mining Depository Recepits around the dinner table...

Re WAG combo spread placed yesterday

Out of 37.50 Jan calls with +125%

Retaining 35 Jan puts as expect some pullback from gap and there is another 29 days to expiration.

Pressing my luck...

Short the QQQQ's and adding back some FXP...

Tight stop on the QQQQ's Gonna let the FXP Ride...

bg- going to join you->scaling back into FXP at 74.99...

isaiah- yes, still long UNG as well as January calls...

I am watching the 51.80 level in the qqqq's if it breaks to the upside I am out...

Also Tempted to get back into my short in XOM..I did real well last time at about this level, and Bill has had many coments about this one over the last few weeks...

Some April Puts ought to be a nice xmas gift to myself :^)

2nd,
Did you get your shares of PNPFF? I have an order to buy 500 @ 4.50. Can't get it. This stock will be ripping as Uranium moves higher with all of the neclear plant discussions.

stktrader- took hours for my orders to fill the last couple of days...you've got me second-guessing whether to sell->plenty of upside

NOT.V- adding at 3.93...

doodoo is losing its bid, up ten in premarket now up 3. a good leading indicator for fxp.

HRB showing some much deserved weakness during this rally. I'm thinking next week should be interesting for HRB. I'm thinking about some Feb. puts on the dow but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Also looking at long term calls on MELI, the ebay of latin America.

Rob.

GLD Symmetrical Triangle -

GLD traded up to the top of the triangle this am. MACD (12,26,9) and it's histogram close to turning higher signalling a possible long trade. RSI's 7, 14, 21 close to lining up on the long side, Stochastics lining up for long trade, faster moving averages close to lining up over slower moving averages. Bottom line, if the triangle is broken to the upside, these price oscillators are lining up for a buy signal for the non-thinking black boxes. If I was "with the cash and in the know", and had an interest in keeping gold contained, I would be trying very hard here to keep the triangle intact. Shorts don't want the craze spec black boxes to jump on gold here. The coil is wound.

The actual gold chart is not the same as GLD and I trade off the gold chart. This triangle study is just that, a study. When the triangle is broken, I will continue discussion if warranted, but I don't want my comments to be misconstrued as trade recommendations, so please don't take them as such. My original idea was to try to get newer community members to think like a trader. "Here is a possible technical analysis formation, what could happen if it is confirmed?" Since my first post, gold's price has moved within the triangle, which is interesting to me - how come these formations are fairly predictable? Self fulfilling prophesy? Who knows, but you need to have a game plan for future possible price action on a strategic level and then have a tactical plan in place.

Think strategically, act tactically.

To be continued...

Number2 son--"Ok, the PCE numbers are out and maybe someone can explain how income can come in below expectations while expenditures shoot up? Inflation rears its ugly head once again. And hey, aren't consumers strapped enough already?"

One thought--all the cash from the substanial (untaxed) underground economy that has been set aside for a rainy day may play into this.

Added FXP @ 74.20 and QID @37.35

Now I am waiting for the bears to have lunch !

Any FWR (Freewest) holders out there? As a shareholder, I have been credited today with shares of Quest Uranium, plus some options to buy more at $0.15. Has anyone looked at whether it is worth it to buy these options?

Added to GDX at the close yesterday, as a Christmas gift to myself b'cause it was selling at 20% off.

Server error on last post... this should fix it.

Isiah, you are learning boy.

go34, thanks for the GLD update. You like to have fun? Solarfun that is...check out the bull flag on that baby (SOLF). Seems like you could place a trade with a tight stop. It's going to break one way or the other right? Arch coal is another stock I am watching, waiting for volume to break out.

My learning curve has progressed so much here in the past few weeks. Currently paper trading formations and setups. In the past I was a fundamental kinda guy, as that is my background and education, but feel I have added so much to my toolbox by learning the TA stuff.

Thanks everyone.

g034, do you have any opinion on looking at it against the currencies and seeing a cup and handle pattern, as detailed in this article? I never thought of it this way.
http://tinyurl.com/1w56

Adding to FXP at 74. Looking for more SKF at 100.

Mom&Pop Stuff:

g034 .. So what you are saying mirrors Bill in some ways i.e. it’s not time to back the truck up just yet but one should be sure the tank is full, battery charged, and tires kicked for the signal to start the engine that is surely to come and it may be sooner than later.

Speaking of being ready, has anyone used www.apmex.com for buying and selling gold/silver?

I don't have any good coin dealers within easy driving distance of my location so I'm turning to the web.

calvino

I got my Phd from the "market of hard knocks" !

:^)

GOLFER...

A perfect example of why options are hard to trade..

The puts I Bought in the QQQQ's this morning were overpriced because of the short squeeze conditions this morning...

I exited the put position with a 34.00 loss...

Kept the FXP and looking to add on pullbacks...

BTW, who was it that was buying SLW at 14.20?

Come on out, we bow in your presence!

Bought another 1K NOT @ 3.89. I am topped off with 2K on this spec. Averaged at 3.95. Scaling into PNP at 4.50.

gecko - that's great! Fundamentals + technicals = success. If I can help a few community members and they can help a few community members and so on...it is all worth it.

Denny - when gold in euros broke out a few years ago, that was a great buy because it added a whole bunch of new eyes to the gold market. All currencies are being debased and gold will rise in all currencies bringing global demand. Ratios can be used to improve your trading, see; $gold:$hui or $gold:$xau and ta can be applied to those ratios. Cup with handle formations are very tradable.

C.Note - exactly!

SOLF flag:

I think these patterns are like basing patterns, the longer they work out the more upside there tends to be.

The gold flag has been building for a couple months where the SOLF flag is weeks old.

That and one is funadmentally set to go and the other, while maybe a longterm idea, is very speculative considering it's recent run-up and short history.

Bob Nardelli tells staff that Chrysler is bankrupt: "Technically, no. Operationally, yes". Seeking to sell assets to raise cash ASAP.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119820798310144385.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Zenob, just bought British Sov's from APmex a month ago. Worked out great. Would recommend and use again, in fact maybe next week.

Craig a week or so ago I made some posts about SLW and debated internally about establishing a position. Well I sat on my hands. If someone wants to provide a technical perspective on where SLW might head I am all eyes.

ALOHA !!

Zenob ... I can say that APMEX is reliable based on my past buys. Another one is CNI(California Numismatics Investments) but they do not sell online you have to call in your order at their 800 number.

PC off: A Merry Christmas to All here and a hearty thanks to Bill for this site.

Have unloaded most of my longs over the past three months, holding only two jr. miners and some income generators(Thanks, Seamus).

NPE.V an Oil Sands play that is now under accumulation by insiders.

GWQ.V an B.C. Cu/Au play that is currently proving assets. This one will be SOLD not developed.

Now able to comfortably wind down year to spend valuable time with family. Been able to keep the best years of my life well funded thanks to all here.

Good Holidays, Good Luck and Good Trading to all.

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Yes ... GOOD ONE !! Congrats on the BESPy !!

I have to point out that I looked at the "SUCK MY NASDAQ" website since they too won a BESPy. This is a case where a guy turned his losing portfolio into a winning website!

Suck My Nasdaq
Jefferson Krull has developed this site so that you, the trading public, can watch in real-time as his bottom-line plunges further into the red. Odd but fun. (Rated R)

g034, that's right, I remember now that you mention it, it broke out in the other currencies and had big run after that, right into May of '06.

I can't find where it states in the constitution that education is a state matter. I have a copy of the bill of rights hanging on my wall here as well as a copy of the declaration of independence. I had to google a full copy of the constitution but I am unable to find any reference in any of the 3 to education being a state matter. Where did you find it at?

Bonez, eerrrr.. Zenob...

I'm looking for direction on the same thing - buying PM online.

WAG

What I love about the Cara method of Buy Alerts is that more often than not, you can buy a Cara 100 stock upon the alert and then just wait for it to go. It suits that larger portion of my investments that are swing trades. I didn't catch the absolute bottom a couple days ago, but I'm pretty happy with where I was just able to set my stop loss!

Geckojb
I'd like to hear Bill's take, as it looks like silver, or at least SLW is leading gold and GLD to the upside. Sorry to hear you didn't get in on it.

Thanks for the reassurance on Apmex. I will likely use them as I start scaling into physical metal. Next on my shopping list, a good stout lockbox. :-)

Re: Education in the Constitution

It's supposed to be that any authority NOT directly given to the federal government is a state matter. Except we have allowed Congress and the judges to use the "Necessary and proper" clause recklessly.

gecko:
Let me make an amatuer stab at your SLW question:
It appears to be overbought with RSI @ 86; slow stochastic around 96; histogram positive with slight downward slope.
I would be looking to sell (or sell short) when histogram crosses from positive to negative.

Would appreciate any assessment, positive or negative; trying to upgrade my skills.

Zenob,

Technically, it is a state matter because I don't believe it is a power explicitly given to the federal government in the Constitution. As I understand it, in theory it is a state matter, but the federal government gives out a bunch of funding and all federal mandates are tied to that funding. It's like how they got Louisiana to increase the drinking age by threatening to withhold federal highway funds.

I'm a liberal and generally don't mind education being directed at the federal level. But I think it's pretty crooked how the federal government seems to realize it doesn't have power to control something, so it finds something it can control and uses that to change what it isn't supposed to be able to control. It's a slippery slope, and maybe one day the federal government will control everything that it cares about just by saying it will remove all funding from a state that doesn't comply 100% with it's will. While I think the Constitution Party has horrible policy ("we can't do anything at the federal level because the Constitution doesn't allow it!"), they have a point that there is a legal framework for the separation of power between federal and state/local governments that we completely ignore in practice.

Whenever the law and reality don't match, that has to be fixed or else the law loses all it's power. This applies to things like speeding and, to bring this back to topic, securities laws.

Jeff

The Federal Government was there for defense and interstate commerce.

That's why the states existed in the first place, instead of one federal government....in order to secure states rights for local state matters, which would include education but was mainly about slavery.

This is all basic corporate/constitutional/bylaws structure. We use the same English law system throughout with some variations. Hence the Bill of Rights on your wall which somehow doesn't make it into the Constitution because of states rights versus Thomas Jefferson. Jefferson lost the constitutional battle so came up with the Bill of Rights. Interesting perspective on slavery that one.....

Bill:
Looking at your religion url:
From a strictly pragmatic point of view, soldiers fight harder and longer when they are motivated by the belief that they are on the side of Providence. In the US, patriotism and one of its highest expressions, combat duty, have had a traditional tie to religious belief. Generals have long counted on it. There has been a concern in the military of late that when push comes to shove, soldiers without a strong belief that they are fighting for the moral high ground won't have the staying power: few will walk into fire to defend pop culture alone. Patriotism is perceived to be on the wane. Just finished an interesting bio of T.J. (Stonewall)Jackson: one of his key officers was his chaplain on whom great demands were made to keep the men in their bibles. Ragged, starving,dreadfully armed rebels kept it coming. Again, that's just the pragmatics of it. A shallow, superficial, army-issue faith won't hold up and won't serve, but, however cynical, the military is promoting true believers.

Zenob:
‘No coin shops near by’

A week ago or so, I mentioned eBay as a source for GOLD&SILVER coins. Of course there are a few issues one must overcome if this is a new venue.

Several benefits come your way in this realm, one for sure is the excellent handle you grasp of the ‘real world’ value of AU&AG but it does require access to coinage info. and this is very easy to overcome visa via the internet.

Once you have set yourself up its not only is interesting, profitable, and fun but an outlet to sell your booty when you need some cash. All this can be done from your desk in your pajamas ;)

As I have stated here before, I would be ecstatic to see half a dozen community members post trading ideas and why. The benefit would be learning to be a better trader, keeping your head in the game, managing risk and watching your p&l improve and isn't that what this is all about making money and keeping it?

I did this on a Cara 100 stock, DOW, a couple of weeks ago which worked out great. Frankly, unless I missed some comments, I don't think it got much interest.

Over the past few years, Bill has put a lot of time into teaching how to fish. He has devoted countless hours describing a very simple, yet profitable trading strategy that doesn't seem to get a lot of write ups here (to his disapointment?).

An outline of a trade might look like this (long trade, I would suggest sticking to the "Cara stocks"):

Stock: Cara 100 stock - XYZ.
GICS: #
Current price: $X
12 month price objective: $X (calculated by taking 12 month earnings projections times average historic multiple).
Total return objective: $X (capital gain projection plus dividend).
Technical Buy signal: In accumulation zone, RSI 7 rising over 30, etc...
Support: found at former bottoms on such and such date, fibonacci, trendline or whatever.
Other: maybe option play vs. the straight stock purchase OR thoughts on how the sector cycle could affect the stock OR whatever else makes you like the stock on a fundamental basis.

I know that we once tried to get a couple of teams together to do this on an organized basis, but that didn't pan out. Maybe if enough of us keep our eyes peeled, this can still happen on an independent basis.

So, who's onboard?

Ahh ok I see what you were referencing. Amendment 10. I still fail to see the problem. Public education isn't exactly some kind of government mandate coming down from on high. If you send your kids to a private catholic school instead of the local public school they aren't going to come kick your door down or charge you with a felony. Public education started before the United States was even formed. The first "public" school in the colonies was formed over a century before the United States existed. Every civilized country in the west has a form of public education. I still fail to see what the specific problem with it is. If it's the money being spent on it, I can't imagine why that would be a complaint. The benefits of an educated society far out way the financial expenditure. Not to mention the economic benefit to the entire country. You can simply look at the literacy rates of a country with an emphasis on education compared to a country that does not have a public education system. It's literally the difference between first world and third world.

HNCadet,

Do you have any insight into GWQ.V? Their hard work in drilling and assaying thus far has shown very lackluster Cu/Au results, albeit the associated mineralogy is encouraging. I'm just curious, I don't mean to be critical.

Cheers

go34,
I noticed, did my own DD, bought DOW and sold on the day I posted it was up 10% premarket on the deal, which I believe you did as well. Your basis killed mine but the trade was excellent.

I posted GFI yesterday approaching it's 52 week low. Not as detailed as above, but if one didn't pull the trigger at 13.20 or so it was gone.

A local one for me is SBUX. It has been in the AC and got a buy signal and I am thinking of building a position.

Another one from Bill is TM. It's 52 wk low is $104 where it was close to a few days ago where I bought some. Now near $107 with a weak yen and strong USD.

I'm not happy long right now as the trend is weak and threatened. I like the idea of Bill's list of div/income stocks to get into at the opportune time.

The Bill of Rights was essentially a clarification of what the Constitution stood for. After the constitution was drafted, they agreed that these rights needed to be codified so that the country wouldn't go "off the rails". This is where the first 10 amendments to the constitution came from. Of course the anti-federalists blew their collective tops over it. They were heavily influenced by british common law, which wasn't actually written down. For some reason they thought that actually writing down certain rights somehow actually limited the rights of people. They preferred that a person's rights were left "assumed" common law style. I find that whole notion silly.

Isaiah -

"I got my Phd from the "market of hard knocks" !"

You must be channeling Jesse Livermore!

"There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!"

OldGoat

:^)

Someone [maybe you] post that a week or two ago. I made a copy of it. Good quote...

Anyone taking a look at MU

Been eying the April 7.00 puts...Thinking of selling a few for .55...If they are put to me my cost basis would be around 6.50..

g034 -

The server ate my response to your earlier gold comments today. I don't think I can retype the whole thing again, otherwise I will be one of these people (bad day at office video):
http://tinyurl.com/22o63g
But I said something to the effect that my only concern about gold going higher in the short term is that the dollar appears to be in an up-trend (maybe 1-2 months?) and I want to see how that plays out.

I think there was a lot of interest in your DOW analysis. But I'm not sure I could do that kind of analysis yet. Please keep doing it - I think your examples will encourage others to try also, and it is much more useful than - "I bought X."

I posted something about a Tax loss selling play a few days ago. Today the markets are up 1 - 1.5% and many of these stocks I am tracking are down: XHB ITB CHCI CTX DHOM LEN MHO PHM SPF TOA MDC BZH DHI HOV WCI BHS KBH MTH NVR OHB TOL RYL FITB UBS BAC CFC NFI TMA FNM FRE

Maybe I was not clear on how I intend to play this. I am not trying to short them in the last few days of the year. I am watching these to see which get hammered the most in the last few days of the year. Then on the first trading day of the year, if there is more selling (people who want to roll their loss into 2008), I may take a position. So I guess this is more of a short term technical play than an economic one.

Ok.. Here goes, fingers crossed... Post.
Tim / Madison,WI

Zenob,
True, but there was that problem of who was a man and who wasn't and who was 2/3rds a man....

Some states relied heavily on those 2/3rds men held in slavery.

SOLF bull flag update - pop since initial 11:04 am posting. 6% pop with idle cash in a few hours, I'll take it.

Craig, who is much better at this stuff than me made a note that this pattern may not of been as strong as GLD triangle but I personally thought this was a bull flag setup which is different than a symmetrical triangle. The pattern was pretty tight and and the support was so clear that if it broke down a few pennies you were out as the pattern was flag was dead. I probably don't know what I am talking about so I'll chalk it up to luck.

lol at myself... I may take a long position in some of those stocks for a rebound play.

basketguy

Thanks for the update on options.

I am planning on doing some learning on them while I am away for the winter.

Bill,

In this morning's report you wrote:

"Are you now wondering why Humungous Bank & Broker was so busy in the past year buying mega billions of dollars worth of its own stock at a time when prices were at their highest levels? Well I told you at the time, didn’t I? I told you it was using the shareholders’ treasury to buy the shares of Friends & Family to provide them with the funds they would need to return to the market at the bottom of the Bear to buy back those shares and much more. I called it, among other things, orchestrated fraud and the greatest transfer of wealth from the average shareholder to HB&B Friends & Family in the history of the world.
Now, in the midst of having to write off the crap these bankers knew back then they were holding, and having to go hat in hand to governments for bail-outs, their share prices have fallen on bad times. Surprise! Surprise! Like a bullet in the forehead, I gave it to you straight when it was going down. All that needs to be done now to complete this sad script is for the Bear to sink the markets and then Friends and Family will pull their capital out of T-Bills and Gold and buy up what’s left remaining from the Bear’s lunch."

If this be the case, would there be any chance that a "paper-trail" of such transactions could be obtained by some sort of "investigative research/reporting" technique?

Golfer,,

For fun...I am going to paper trade 10 MU April 7.00 puts that I sold for .55C...

If all goes well and MU is trading above 7.05 by april exp I should be up 550.00...

Lets see what happens..

Geckojb,
A 6% gain says I'm full of it!

rugger09

Yes, based on data from an investment group I am associated with, current Aurizon zone is showing ~ 0.60+% Cu+equivalents and awaiting Peach 1 zone results which have shown several high grade intersections. We believe buyout offers from surrounding Lg operators could be in the $3-$10. range depending on timing(how much proved is on the table). Expected Peach 1 zone data before years end, but backups in analysis from Kamloops is holding back results. Geologist is well known and respected and has done work for other local mines, knows the area and is confident of success. Again were owning this based on a buyout, not development of a mine. Expect to happen in '08.

Any guesses as to the direction of FXP over the next week or two?

I'd also be interested in any opinions on how Noront Resources is doing in terms of discoveries. It sure fell far after breaking above US $5.10 a few weeks ago.

The 2/3rds of a person example is a good example of how the constitution is a living document. The founders knew they weren't perfect and they left the provisions necessary for future generations to fix. Which the slavery issue was corrected with the 13th Amendment.

On FXP I'm hoping that after new years we are going to start seeing more weakness. I'm also hoping that there will be more weakness as the 2008 olympics get's closer. Hosting the Olympics has traditionally been a severe economic drain. Countries usually make their profits from the games via increased tourism. I don't see China as that much of a tourist draw compared to Atlanta, or Athens or Sydney. Keep in mind, I could be totally wrong in my assessment as well. You still need to do your own DD.

Hi Zenob,

I think one of the main reasons the Founding Fathers of the US imparted their political philosophy of limited, enumerated powers and checks and balances into the (Federal) Constitution was that they wanted to make sure their new federal government would be a servant of its people. In my opinion, expanding federal government to where it's not truly necessary is contrary to this philosophy.

RH

States power also puts some of this back at local control so that states can help bring the fed power back under control and apply pressure as well.

I noticed the U.S. Government was trying to tell California they can't limit greenhouse gas emissions from cars.

I bet California wins that battle as there is already precedent for limiting carbon monoxide emissions from cars in California to clean up the air. An example of states rights for the better as it tends to drag others along being the worlds 6th largest economy and a large consumer of cars.

I agree that unnecessary expansion of the federal government is a bad thing. I still don't see how federal support of public education would fall into that however. It's not a federal mandate(you don't HAVE to send your kids to public school), and the benefits we get out of it far outweigh the actual dollar costs.

Zenob,

Re: powers of the states in U.S. Constitution:

From http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/constitution.billofrights.html#amendmentx

"Amendment X

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people."

FXP- we have the Chinese government on our side->they are not interested in having a runaway stock market (reference the interest rate hikes this year), and probably want to keep a lid on volatility either way going into the Olympics...the Shanghai index has doubled YTD->my take would be they will try to keep it right about where it is, so i would tend to play the back-and-forth in FXI/FXP, as opposed to betting in one direction and letting it ride...

basketguy"

I am adding MU and SBUX to my "Cara buy alert basket" as both triggered this week.

If I am not mistaken you are from the Chicago area... if so I will pay more attention to your views on the "Bulls and the Bears" than many of the other posters on this blog.

2nd,
What about trading both the FXI and the FXP in tandum? It must skew to some degree. Like a straddle?

2nd Ave, thanks for your view on FXP. I had been expecting more downside to Chinese equities due to the rate hikes and strong gains, but suspect you are right. However, this does suggest that maybe the risk of the Chinese market breaking to the upside is relatively low, while the possibility of a correction is still there if there are broad global market declines. I've just started watching (and buying small positions in it) so I don't understand it's short term price movements yet....

FXI/FXP-> percentage-wise, FXP is returns double the move on FXI..don't think there's much skew, although the underlying derivatives in FXP may cause it to go off-course once in awhile...not sure there's much point in holding both at the same time...

GLD has broken above the upper boundary on a semilog chart (I use highs and lows rather than close). Substantial confirmation from most miners. Perhaps the cat is out of the bag.

Someone mentioned Garmin as a "look atter" last week.

You may want to do some DD on Hemisphere GPS (HEM on the TSE) and compare its price action relative to GRMN. I have been in and out over the last few years and it has been good to me. I think it has great upside on its own plus the possibility of a take-over play.

What benefits has the Federal Govt given to public education?

The school lunch program?

I know alot of teachers who don't like "no child left behind". How has that program helped public education?

Has the federal Govt helped take control of the schools away from the teacher's unions?

I think every school district has unique needs and issues that can't be dealt with by the Federal "one size fits all" attitude.

It's bad enough that in states like NY local districts have control over almost nothing because everything is predetermined for them by Washington and Albany. And if they dare deviate from their directives, no money next year, even if the directives actually hamper the kids' education.

I would rather see each district in charge of itself, including taxing authority. The states should set guidelines and that's it. The feds shouldn't even be involved except for disputes between states.

Oh and I already hear the complaints, the richer suburb schools have computers and pools and the inner city and rural ones have less. That is the only reason I can see for the FEDs and States justifying their involvement. But I don't agree with it. If someone doesn't like their school they can move or send their kids to private schools.

If everyone thinks it's OK to take money from one school district and give it to another then why don't we also take everyone's money that has over 1 million dollars and give it to people who don't have 1 million dollars? Isn't that the same concept with how we run the schools?

Rob.

Somebody bought 70,000 shares of MOR and over 100,000 shares of PMV. This someone may be accumulating.

FNC at 1.35

Hi Zenob,

I believe that public education could be run adequately at the state/local level without the intervention of the federal government (there are precedents for this). Allowing the federal government to (more centrally) control public education could reduce the influence that communities have on educational choices (i.e. curriculum, etc.), and could increase the risk that the federal government becomes self serving.

RH

Europe....

More passport-free countries added today to allow free movement of their citizens throughout the zone.

I can remember when Canada and the USA had this kind of vision.

OOPS.... One of them still does.

More proof of a slow down in 2008:

BMW Plans Job Cuts Next Year

MUNICH, Germany - BMW AG said Friday it will cut thousands of jobs next year, three months after incoming CEO Norbert Reithofer said he would focus on increasing the rate of return for the automaker.

Mathias Schmidt, a spokesman at the Munich-based company, did not say exactly how many thousands of jobs would be cut. The Der Spiegel news magazine Web site put the figure at 8,000.

Schmidt said that most of the cuts would come in Germany, where the company employs some 80,000 workers. Heavy cuts are likely for temporary workers, but some permanent workers would be affected as well.

The shorts are getting creamed today. Macromatics called it. Check out this put/call option chart from today

http://tinyurl.com/34dvaw

It looks to me like it's making lower highs and lower lows which seems to mean that the market is back in rally mode for awhile.

Look at the pattern from the August low until about mid October, trending down. Then for the November correction trending up. I guess next week will tell if it spikes back up below 1.15 the rally may be on.

Rob.

Golfer

Thanks for the kind words..I am just trying to steer these waters just like everyone else.

Being from Chicago gives me no trading advantage. I have a few freinds down at the BOT and some trader friends that work for UBS, but they are always BUY BUY BUY...Market is great...

I can tell you that being a business owner and in the gift industry, this year SALES SUCK....My family has been in this field for 40+ years. My corporate clients spent money this year, but my retail customers are NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. DEAD...PUT A FORK IN THEM...These are customers that have been buying from me for over 10 plus years THEY ARE ALL CUTTING BACK...

I am lucky because I sell to a wide spectrum of users...DISTRIBUTORS, WHOLESALERS and RETAIL. So my sales for the holiday are tracking up about 7%

I think we are going to see very weak retail sales for XMAS...

Uranium reports

http://tinyurl.com/27hrx8

FWIW:

"Here some of the most popular areas of Stockhouse from 2007:

Most Queried Symbols in 2007

V.NOT - Noront Resources Ltd
T.CLL - Connacher Oil and Gas Limited
V.FO - Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd
V.SGX - Sage Gold Inc
V.KXL - Kodiak Exploration Ltd.
Most Posted Bullboards

V.NOT - Noront Resources Ltd
T.CLL - Connacher Oil and Gas Limited
T.ARU - Aurelian Resources Inc
V.SGX - Sage Gold Inc
V.SLT - Solitaire Minerals Corp

isaiah- ultrashorts purchased today on weakness, and assuming your position size is fine->so consider holding over the holidays...

Bought Russell 2K Feb 72 puts. Already have Jan 73.

doodoo* just turned red.

*doodoo translates bidu in non coloquial tongues.

isiah - don't fear the reaper.

So basically public education is bad because it get's 10% or less of it's funding from the government? Most states(it does vary though) have funding breakouts that go something like this: 45% from local taxes, 45% from state, and 10% from federal. So that 10% of federal money makes you think we need to scrap the entire education system in the United States? Not to mention that the trend recently has been for that 10% to be chipped away at by various religious schools via unconstitutional "voucher" programs. Does that now mean that we need to shut down those private schools as well? I still think having a public education system trumps the naysayers. Especially if it's only having to provide 10% of the financing.

The No Child Left Behind law doesn't count for much anyways. It was a flawed screwed up mess that Bush Jr and his team dreamed up. It needs to go.

I'll wait to add to my shorts..

Have a feeling with lower volumes ahead DA BOYZ are going to push their luck...

I think there will be better times to enter dead ahead...

Merry Christmas to all who celebrate...

SEE YA...

2nd & calvino

I'm holding pat.....

Everything is in the vault... waiting for the great bear to come next week to feast [maybe].

Zenob,
You obviously really like the Federal Government being involved in Public Education.

I don't think the Feds should be involved at all unless they feel they need to set standards with no money or "strings" attached. You still haven't pointed out how any of the Federal "strings" help education. I NY I think the State having too much control is a problem and the power of the Teachers' Unions is another problem.

If the State and Fed involvement is so harmless then why do they continually threaten us with our own money if we don't follow the "one size fits all" rules they concoct in the dark rooms or Albany and Washington.

To fix it we need to get 95% of the money from the local districts for each school and only 5% from each Feds and State. People will feel like they have more control over their school and take more interest. Now you go to the school board and bring up issues and they just blame Albany and Washington. I say kick Albany and Washington out!! What makes them smart enough to decide everything for my school without even consulting any of us.

Rob.

Sold half my MNTA, fearing that the recent run-up was option related.

Locked in 38% profit in 6 weeks, letting the other half ride.

snuck a little more FXP/QID in at the bell.

SiO2,
Is there a way to know whether someone bought those quantities of MOR and PMV as opposed to an institutional holder crossing them for accounting purposes?

Bull,
"38% profit in 6 weeks"
Ever had a better finish than that?

http://tinyurl.com/2gt7v8

Reuters
Banks abandon plan for Super-SIV: sources
Friday December 21, 3:46 pm ET

Bill,
Re M-LEC, Could this be the way that the big banks are telling Paulson to go diddle because of the mortgage shorting by Goldman Suchs?

Locked in 38% profit in 6 weeks, letting the other half ride.

Posted by: Bull Hunter at December 21, 2007 4:00 PM

Bull Hunter... very impressive...38% of what?

The Feds got involved to ensure blacks could attend public schools in Alabama, Louisiana, etc. which is a lawful use of the federal government. IE: to defend the civil rights of citizens.

Unless there is some violation regarding civil rights or equal facilities, personnel and opportunity, the Federal government really has no place in education per se.

The Dept. of Ed. should only ensure these equal standards and rights and nothing more.
They should not have access to funds for education because any jurisdictional issue could be handled through the Dept of Justice or the court system. It's only when you have nutcases like George Wallace that such measures come into play for good reasons.

SLW: Up nearly 12% today? Geeez.

Is silver leading gold?

Bill or others

The close on gold and gold futures (YG 08G) looked fairly good to me. Hope you comment in your WIR or in the blog this weekend, is the break upward from the "triangle" something to jump on or a head fake?

Thanks and best regards, BC

Fred,

Here are those big trades on MOR.V taken from Tsx.com. I think they show the 10 most recent trades so on these thinly traded issues you can often see a chunk of the days trades. I assume since the buyer on these is Wolverton and sellers are all various that this wasn't an institutional cross, but I am not exactly sure how these work.

MOR.v

13:37 0.150 5,000 +0.015 Wolverton Desjardins
13:32 0.140 5,000 +0.005 Wolverton RBC
13:30 0.140 68,500 +0.005 Wolverton UBSSecurities
13:03 0.135 40,000 +0.000 Wolverton W.D. Latimer

Fred,

Here are those big trades on MOR.V taken from Tsx.com. I think they show the 10 most recent trades so on these thinly traded issues you can often see a chunk of the days trades. I assume since the buyer on these is Wolverton and sellers are all various that this wasn't an institutional cross, but I am not exactly sure how these work.

MOR.v

13:37 0.150 5,000 +0.015 Wolverton Desjardins
13:32 0.140 5,000 +0.005 Wolverton RBC
13:30 0.140 68,500 +0.005 Wolverton UBSSecurities
13:03 0.135 40,000 +0.000 Wolverton W.D. Latimer

Craig--Isaiah,
SLW very good news to me...bought a little this week, and Toqueville Gold holds a sigfificant position in SLW: That fund could use a boost.

I made a change to the website which should fix a Javascript error in the Typekey code. It's a long shot, but it might fix some login problems. If you were having trouble posting before, see if you can post now. I'm not convinced it will solve the problems, but it's the first solid lead I've gotten so it's worth a shot.

If you still can't log in, feel free to send me an email (username: korvus , domain: korvus.net) and let me know. I suspect we won't be using Typekey once the website gets overhauled, but I'd like to fix it for the time being if possible.

"The scenarios are almost infinite and very frightening to contemplate. A global cascading cross default would push the world into a money gridlock. An instant global Depression would result."

"Fortunately, calmer minds have estimated that the probability of this actually happening are quite small -- perhaps no more that 10 to 20%. Here’s why."

http://tinyurl.com/3bj7d8

Wasn't it only a 10% chance of bankruptcy that took down E*Trade? Who are these "calmer minds" estimating an 80-90% chance that we're not going into a global depression?

"This mess was created by the US in the first instance, and the US can bail the world out. "

More like lender nations ex US are the ones who can bail the world out.

BillySundance,
Thanks. Very interesting. I last played in MOR around 28 cents. I'll have to give it another look!

Jaketh

"Toqueville Gold holds a sigfificant position in SLW: That fund could use a boost."

It does? I didn't know that... That is good news.

I added some more TGLDX when it hit 46 the other day. Did you get any of that HUGH divident that just paid out? That was sweeeeeeeeeet!

If anyone wants to see how the FEDs screw up public education just study the school lunch program for awhile. Most of the FED and most of the State money is spent using the "School Lunch Program" as the way to divide up our money. The more kids that "qualify" for free or reduced lunches, the more Fed and State aid the district gets.

Do you realize how much time and effort that is spent by each school "qualifying" for as much money as they can. That time and effort would be better if it was focused on true education.

With the rest of the money each Government puts countless "strings" on it like curriculum rules, which textbooks to use, and other things that should be decided locally.

I just don't understand how anyone could think that the FED or State Governments know more about what each local district needs than those district themselves.

I think we've given the State and Feds so much power over schools to implement the rules Teacher Unions want and so administrators never have to be held accountable as they can always blame problems on Albany or Washington.

With local control comes local accountability and local responsibility instead of continually passing the buck and implementing the wishes of the few.

Rob.

trying to repair the dreaded server error...

nice move in KRY today above $2... offset my loss in Circuit City lol.

Craig, read up on the Chairman before you decide to go with SBUX...

http://www.iww.org/en/node/3769

Not that they are much better but YHOO or MCD might make more sense... though MCD's franchisees are just as ticked that they have to sell coffee as labour unions are with sbux.

totally unbiased site here. :)

http://www.ihatestarbucks.com/bb/

stupid typepad... telling me to shaddap.

Your comment submission failed for the following reasons:

Too many comments have been submitted from you in a short period of time. Please try again in a short while.

Isaiah,
Thanks to you and other Caraistas, the whole dividend thing was explained to me...wound up with a few hundred more shares, but it's still worth a whole lot less than it was Nov. 1. I'm hoping Tgldx makes my Christmas NEXT year. Elsewhere, I'm holding the same ultrashorts, betting on the bear. It's been fun learning, and not too expensive.

FWIW;

from Yahoo

WORLD INDICES

Americas | Asia/Pacific | Europe | Africa/Middle East

ALL GREEN.... Does this occur often?

golfer,

probably when you put $700 billion dollars into the game when everyone's left the building.

So the reason that the public education system should be abolished is so the fed can't attach strings to the school lunch program?

Zenob,

I think most of the argument now is that the federal government shouldn't be in charge of public education, and instead it should be locally run. It has it's pluses and minuses, and I'm not sure what side I'm on.

There are some people who believe that the public education system should be abolished, but I've only seen a few people express that opinion here. I think most people realize that educating those who couldn't afford education on their own is in the best interest of society as a whole. We have very little use for a true underclass in modern society, whereas a basic education allows people to participate in creating wealth.

Finger Lakes seems to be arguing at this point for greater control at the school district level, not for abolishing public education. If I'm wrong, he's free to correct me.

Jeff

I grew up in the public school system. My parents both were teachers at relatively small, rural schools. Since my father was principal, we lived on campus. In those early days, schools generally were locally controlled, their quality determined by the quality of local government and parental involvement. Over the years, as the federal government became more and more involved as "funding source" and "guarantor of cultural/educational relevance", the focus gradually changed from a community inspired effort to a recurring drudgery of bureaucratic interventions.

By the time I gained teacher certification there was relatively little parental involvement in our school programs. Much time and effort was devoted by school personnel to interpreting official guidelines, justifying educational initiatives, and generally making everything look good on paper so that the next round of funding was received. It was then that I decided not to remain a public school teacher. There was far too much of bureaucratic overhead and far too little time remaining for actually teaching and working with students.

My father often says that it was the relentless intervention by federal authorities to rectify social problems that led to invasion by all sorts of educational parasites and the destruction of what had been modest, but pretty good schools. When local control was lost, public education became the dreary hoax that drives talented students and teachers to despair. It's a mess.

DJ News:
GS CEO awarded 67.9 million bonus by the BOD.
ECU Silver amends terms of debt facility.

Ya gotta love Friday afternoon news.

NEW LOGO! For those who are interested, Bill has posted a new link with sample prototypes of his new logo. There is a commentary section where you can provide input.

We've chosen to educate our six children in private schools because it afforded us more options and input. We began with an idea of the type of person we wanted to result, then attempted to conform the study and experiences accordingly. That seemed logical. For example, if you're planning to build a company, you first decide what that company should be like, then you assemble the people (first!!!) who can get it there. Then you proceed. Our experiences with public schools were that they either: 1) did not have a clearly defined notion of an "end product;" or 2) they had (in our opinion) a disagreeable notion of what a finished product would look like. Our results have been positive, not perfect. And it has provided us with an interesting and busy life in which education and learning has always been at the forefront. Youngest is 12, so we will soon be missing it: hopefully in the Bahamas with Bill.

Fred

Where can I find it Fred?

Isaiah,

Just hit "home". Bill has started new page. How 'bout that TGLDX!

Isaiah64v4,

It's the next post. Here: http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/12/cara_trading_advisors_logo.html

Please ignore the fuzzy text, as it was my fault for being lazy. :)

Isaiah64v4,

It's the next post. Here: http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/12/cara_trading_advisors_logo.html

Please ignore the fuzzy text, as it was my fault for being lazy. :)

I guess I finally saw that double-post error myself.... Now to try to fix it...

Craig posted: "BTW, who was it that was buying SLW at 14.20?"

I was fortunate enough to pick up some SLW.TO at 13.96 on Monday, and picked up some calls at the same time. Holding the shares, sold 2/3 of the options today.

Did some speculative "bottom fishing" on unloved Canadian gas plays today (PD-UN.TO, PWT-UN.TO), thinking there should be at least a "dead gas bounce" after tax loss selling ends.

Johojo,
Thank you!! You made my point better than I ever could. Education is far better when locally controlled because those are the people that have the most to gain or lose from a good or bad school. Now many parents are disinterested because their input falls on deaf ears. You go to a board meeting and the response to any grievance is "that's mandated by the State or Fed so we have no control."

My point about the School Lunch Program was to show how arbitrary and unfair the funding guidelines have become. Like Johojo says the schools focus more and more of their time and money on meeting mandates and guidelines and quotas instead of teaching.

And the other problem with centralized funding, through the school lunch program, is that failing schools and teachers get a pass because of equalized funding. In a more local system those schools would change or fail and the poor teachers would get fired instead of tenure.

When you move control away from the locality you centralize and dilute it, making it harder for each locality to do whats best for them in their quest to get adequate funding from an arbitrary authority.

Hey Zenob, I don't mean any of this against you personally. I think it's important to debate, otherwise we get stuck into the same old way of thinking. My wife is actually on your side. She thinks government control by enforcing standards and equalizing outcomes with money is the only way to make sure everyone can read and write. I would still love to hear some better reasons for government control. I'm always open to ideas.

Rob.

Bill,
Congratulations on the BESPy. It is well deserved for the work you have done bringing this community together.

Thanks to all for the continual challenging of the intellect, raising the level of discourse, and for all the education I receive here every day.

Best wishes to you and your families in this Holiday Season, wherever you are, and whatever you celebrate, may you do so with those you love best!!!

Reno

As the end of another year approaches,I've been reviewing my 2007 trades in an effort to improve results.

My most profitable plays have come from buying into panic selling, the best lesson I learned from studying David Dreman. I clearly need to do more of this in 2008.

My New Years Resolutions include putting Bill's RSI system into better use and to take fewer but larger positions in my portfolios.

I'd be interested in hearing from the community members, their thoughts on improving results in the coming year. As a community, surely we can learn from our members victories, mistakes and trading insights.

g034,
re: your post of 12:31 on specific trade analysis.

I think your idea would be very valuable to new folks like myself and more experienced traders alike in building (or reinforcing) rigor into our trading ideas. I would like to join in such a group.

To suggest a process, maybe each person grab a stock ,ETF or whatnot, do their analysis, and present a thesis for a trade, including but not limited to the items you mentioned? Maybe share the thesis with the work-group initially for comment and fine tuning, then post here for general comment and consideration?

Anyway, email me at reenzo@yahoo.com and let me know what you think.

Cheers!