Hi.

I just think US in on sale and the Bearish panic is help us who live abroad to buy US with a discount price.

By the way, don't forget to depreciate USD and sell all those financial equities lower. In that case, european and asian people and companies will bought US cheaper ;-)

Thanks a lot.

isaiah- this is more like it->rebuilding a position in QID, started with 20% of my predefined exposure pre-market at 39.10...hoping to see FXP drop back below 75...

GFI-starting a position on the lowered Q2 forecast...

Cara 100 Addition:

New Coverage:

INFY - Mkt Outperform Target $51 @ JMP

Bill,

the past while i keep thinking im going to wake up and read your daily message and it will tell us that now is the time to take our gold posisitons and dig in.

you have noted the 50 and 200 MA's of gold,
and fel that one final plunge down to wash out the weak hands before backing up the truck. the recent US dollar "rally" seemed to be confirming this set up, but gold has been range bound +/- $800.

today's message has an ominous tone, a bugle call
before the big dance?

Bill - whenever you get to redesign the blog and this discourse section, I think it would be essential to have software that separates the conversations into several different fora (e.g. politics, precious metals, other commodities, stocks etc). Right now, it is very tedious to scan through a long list of comments (especially towards the end of a busy trading day). For instance, I am personally delighted to see the 'pinko' conversation about US politics, since it resonates with my own liberal thinking. However, I have no time to wade through dozens of these posts, when I am searching for nuggets of tradeable information during the last market hour! All that could be avoided if the conversation was organized into different fora. I believe there is abundant FREE software to accomplish this. Thanks - Kaushik in Calcutta, where the US market closes at 2.30 AM!

Bill, your outlook is all the more sobering given that you've probably met a lot of these people, so I'm assuming you're not just guessing at motivating forces. If what you say is true, then no, of course "we" aren't in control of corporations and governments. Keep pointing at who is, that's all I request.

Russia in talks to help Libya build neclear plant. It may be time to buy Pinetree (PNP.TO) near $4 today.

Can someone give me a quick recap on the short, and medium term view is for some of the sectors bill has reviewed? I have been away on business for a while, and now I have more cash that I have to 'deal with'.

-Quentusrex

Thanks for the discount on the book Mr. Cara. As always thanks for the great site. I love the new tables of stocks with buy/seel/AZ/DZ status. Your new team is doing great. Still holding some $91 SKF and $102.5 SRS. Will probably hold into next year for tax considerations unless some crazy rally starts hammering my gains. Mr. Cara and his blog has helped make me a valuble contributor to the IRS this last year! Learning from this year: track each trade and gains or losses at THAT time to help with tax preparation rather than winging it and trying to figure a year of trading out in one month. The daughter one year into medical school appreciates it as well.

Bears Stearns largest loss ever and stock goes up. Santa Claus must be wearing his three piece suit this yr.

Chris Puplava makes "the case for gold" in a series of charts showing money supply growth and rates of inflation around the world (from yesterday's market wrap-up). Hey, more power to "us," right?
http://tinyurl.com/1w56

Hi,

Agree that the reading would be facilitated if the discourse would be separate in sections.

Cheers from a "closing down for the season" Europe.

:-)

ksen, I think it is possible to find tradable ideas in the political discussions.

Welcome to opex week, folks. Stocks that should be collapsing today are up -- see RYL and DHI, companies that just had their debt rating cut to junk.

I view this as a good oppt'y to short such aberrations.

Basketguy, watermelon, freedom57

Thanks for your replies to my post relative to options and shorts.

If I missed anyone.... thanks

Welcome to opex week, folks. Stocks that should be collapsing today are up -- see RYL and DHI, companies that just had their debt rating cut to junk.

I view this as a good oppt'y to short such aberrations.

basketguy, watermelon, freedom57:

Thanks for the replies to my queery on options and shorts.

If I missed others... thanks

Ksen - excellent post. I too do not care to go through 100's of posts that have nothing to do with the true spirit of what Bill has started here. Bill alwasy has encouraged all of us to post our thoughts, even if they do not agree with his. But I am sure that noe of want to read political wanderings that will have no impact on markets or the "I just bot xyz this morning" post.

There are plenty of places one can go to banter about stocks or politics - Lets keep this blog to commentary related to the big picture, not the day to day stuff that bores most of us.

Interesting thread I posted last night about Trump & his proposed investment in Scotland... haven't seen it really discussed in the mainstream media.

"Speaking of the environment, anyone hear Trump's building a $1+ billion golf course in Scotland?"

http://tinyurl.com/37g9oz

I agree with Ksen. The discourse here has grown to the point where it is likely going to need a full blown forum soon. Something that can be broken up by topic so as not to clutter up the daily market chat.

FXP- taking a (small) position at 79.55...

CAD hit par with USD again today. Anyone see it pushing back up to the $1.05 level soon? Bullish for gold? Or at least USD-denominated GLD?

Divergence in November... before that it seemed to follow the same trend.

http://tinyurl.com/2lsmme

PIR is up 35% after upgrade. Was a $25 stock in 2004.... sitting at around $5 now. That's a haircut. Probably still paying for their $100 million dollar headquarters or something.

Zenob,

The topic of separated comments comes and goes every so often on this site. Each time it is decided that it is better to keep it all in one. The point of this site(I'm paraphrasing) is so that we all learn to manage our money. This isn't a site for hot stock tips. Even though good stock recommendations are here, remember that isn't the main focus of the site.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

p.s. Could someone catch me up real quick on the short term outlook? Either for the US market, USD, or by sector. Thanks.

ST we are under 13,300 which appears to be resistance here, looking to test 12,800.

USD is strengthening and PM's weakening ST.
YEN is strong today, market weak as result.

Going into holiday.low volume I'm looking for down to sideways muddle into new year.

Lots of talk of rallies but market internals are weak. That's my take so far.

Sorry Ksen and Wabrew, but I disagree. While I think a categorization system would be nice, it doesn't take much effort to scan the posts each afternoon. Almost everyone does a good job of separating their trading posts from political posts.

Wabrew, the "I just bought" posts have been a great way to learn about companies I'd never heard of, and I always appreciate people who are willing to share their trades with others. Opening oneself to examination takes courage and provides an educational opportunity for both the poster and the community.

Quentusrex - the Week in Review WIR is a great place for you to start your katch-up-kwest.

As someone once mentioned in the past it's kinda' like trying to drink from a fully pressured firehose with the amount of information available.

Bottomline, i think, is that it's not currently a bad problem to be sitting with dry powder.

SLM:
Does anyone think SLM is due for a bounce from here ($20.20)

2nd,
Seems we're right back where we were yesterday.
A little volatility this AM at the open and then back to drying paint.

saunders,

I agree, but after being on this site for a while I know that there are times to keep the powder in the keg, and there are times to have it loaded in the cannon. :)

I've been reading from the WIR 3 weeks ago trying to work my way forward. I just like to ask the flavor of the koolaid before I take a drink.

I spent most of my career as a broker with a couple of the largest firms on Wall Street. After leaving the brokerage business I wrote a book on investing and recently started a web site for individual investors.

The fundamental message of my book is that individuals could learn about investing without risking any money by creating a Fantasy Portfolio, a concept which has recently become popular on the Internet.

My web site tracks the significant ($100 million or higher) investments (Big Bets) of roughly 80 of the largest institutional investment firms and hedge funds in the US. This site represents a possible source of investment ideas for individual investors and smaller investment management firms.

I have since created a set of instructions and an Excel worksheet template that can be used by individual investors who are interested in creating and monitoring their own Fantasy Portfolio on their own computers.

All of this - including my web site - is free. To receive the Fantasy Portfolio material, just send me an email at paul@bigbetstocks.com.

The URL for my web site is: http://bigbetstocks.com

craig- if i were to bet, it would be to the downside...

ALOHA !!

I know this is unimportant stuff to all the stock traders here but perhaps you should consider the future more closely and what exactly are those little paper things you call "profit"? When you click your mouse and sell your SBUX for a profit what is it you say? "YEAH MAN! ME and Uncle Sam made 30% in less than a month!" That's right you have a trading partner whether you want one or not! A trading buddy that "wins" everytime you win but risks nothing when you lose! When you cash out you should be prepared for the following US government mindset! Even if Ron Paul became President there is still a US Congress to contend with!

READ ON:
From Rush Limbaugh website ...

NANCY PELOSI
Speaker Of The House

Dec 17, 2007

When questioned about recent stock market highs she responded "Only the rich benefit from these record highs. Working Americans, welfare recipients, the unemployed and minorities are not sharing in these obscene record highs". There is no question these windfall profits and income created by the Bush administration need to be taxed at 100% rate and those dollars redistributed to the poor and working class". Profits from the stock market do not reward the hard work of our working class who, by their hard work, are responsible for generating these corporate profits that create stock market profits for the rich. We in congress will need to address this issue to either tax these profits or to control the stock market to prevent this unearned income to flow to the rich."

When asked about the fact that over 80% of all Americans have investments in mutual funds, retirement funds, 401Ks, and the stock market she replied "That may be true, but probably only 5% account for 90% of all these investment dollars. That's just more "trickle down" economics claiming that if a corporation is successful that everyone from the CEO to the floor sweeper benefit from higher wages and job security which is ridiculous". "How much of this 'trickle down' ever gets to the unemployed and minorities in our county? None, and that's the tragedy of these stock market highs."

"We democrats are going to address this issue after the election when we take control of the congress. We will return to the 60% to 80% tax rates on the rich and we will be able to take at least 30% of all current lower income tax payers off the rolls and increase government income substantially." We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest."

When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied : "We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long ways to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as 'Americans'." END

WELCOME TO THE USSA !!!

PS: I don't have a link to the article ...

That's my take too. Good luck!

A question for the more experienced options traders:

I currently have sold an options spread on QID. As of yesterday, part of my position included 2 sold QID 39 calls that I sold at $.40 (this was when the trade was going against me pre-Fed announcement). When I woke up this morning, they had both been exercised in my account, leaving me short 200 shares of QID with a short basis of 39.40.

Can someone give me an explanation of what the exercise rights are on a sold call option? Can the holder exercise at anytime prior to expiration should they choose to do so?

I am not upset about this as I actually covered the short QID position around 39.20 and plan on reselling the calls at a higher price later today. Just curious as to all of the rights I have sold when I sell a call.

barry ritholtz, the big picture blog:

"Have you ever wonder why investors and counter-parties never take heed from really ugly events? Its one of the things I have mused about, yet I've come up with no good answer.

My favorite example was Merrill Lynch's 1994 bankrupting of Orange County -- the nation's most prosperous county. Merrill didn't seem to be impacted too terribly by that; I guess the thinking was "Nothing a few 100 million in advertising can't paper over."

For those of you who forgot who the 28 year old Nick Leeson was;

"In February of 1995, one man single-handedly bankrupted the bank that financed the Napoleonic Wars, Louisiana Purchase and the Erie Canal. Founded in 1762, Barings Bank was Britain’s oldest merchant bank and Queen Elizabeth’s personal bank. Once a behemoth in the banking industry, Barings was brought to its knees by a rogue trader in a Singapore office. The trader, Nick Leeson, was employed by Barings to profit from low risk arbitrage opportunities between derivatives contracts on the Singapore Mercantile Exchange and Japan’s Osaka Exchange. A scandal ensued when Leeson left a $1.4 billion hole in Barings’ balance sheet due to his unauthorized derivatives speculation, causing the 233-year-old bank’s demise."

It's called greed.

craig- think it was who pointed out once last week that FXI/FXP was "telegraphing" something about market direction->kinda looking that way again this morning...

sorry- "think it was you who pointed out..."

kaimu, the punchline is there may not be any "record stock market highs" for them to tax.

Kaimu -

The article posted seems like a parody to me. Nancy Pelosi would never propose raising taxes to support illegal immigrants. Rush Limbaugh is a propagandist and is not to be trusted as a news source IMO.

On the short-term bullish side Todd Harrison has a feeling the tape has turned but recognizes there are risks on both sides:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=15288

The Independent is reporting a huge drop in Libor rates, although I don't see it in the data on the Bloomberg website.

RSI discrepancies?

I am watching MBT here as I like the trendline on this since Aug on the daily. Anyway, I check the RSI 7 daily using Stockcharts and the google app and both show 55.21 as does Korvus RSI app. I look at Bills daily commentary today and it shows something in the 80's and has a sell alert on it? Is this correct, behind or wrong?

BillySundance

Yep, American style options can be exercised at any time.

http://www.cboe.com/Products/OptionsOnETFs.aspx#etfspec

Looks like Rush got taken by a two year old email hoax about Pelosi. Here's a link to the debunking on snopes:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/pelosi.asp

2nd,
Yes, and FXF/FXY too. I got off my SKF too soon today. Heck and dang!

Waiting for another opportunity as financials look to lead down where they belong.

BillySundance Yes options can be exercised at any time. In the past it was usually around expiration. I remember reading a notification from my broker on this within the last year. Perhaps a check of the CBOE website will provide you with more information. Glad you could cover.

Billy - As a writer (seller) of options, you have no rights, other than the right to collect a premium for the option you've written. You have transfered rights to the seller, to exercise (or not) as he or she desires, within the term specified. My understanding (and there are many more expert than I who will no doubt correct any misstatement on my part) is that American-style equity options can be exercised at any time prior to expiry, but that European-style options can only be exercised on the expiry date. Cash-settled futures options, like those on the E-Mini contract, exercise automatically (I think) at the open on the Thursday prior to the Friday on which same-term equity options expire and cxannot be exercised prior to expiry. Your broker may, but may not be required to, exercise options you own for you on the expiry date provided they are at least a certain amount (1/4 point?) in the money. Don't know how much this varies between brokers. Suggest you take a good hard read of the options education info posted on the CBOE website.

Now that I've displayed my ignorance for all to see, more astute and knowledgeable individuals can tear the above apart, in which case we'll all learn something.

What? You mean all the stuff we read on the internet isn't true? Say it isn't so!

Common people, keep an eye on your sources.
We *want* discussion, but not BS from total creeps like Rush. He is a source of irritation, not news.

We know he's on drugs and he can't tell the truth. Otherwise he would be serving time like all other convicted druggies. Oh wait, he has money and connections....so the law doesn't apply.

"Come on" people....duh, not "common".
I must be on drugs...

XLF..sleeping with the fishes tonight...?

kaimu:
Given Rush Lard-ball's problems with truth over the last quarter century, I would be hesitant to take anything he says with more than a small...exceedingly small...grain of salt.

However, during WWII (with which your father and I were intimately familiar) the top marginal...and applying ONLY to obscene incomes...tax rate, was 70 percent (give or take a small amount)..and it worked well.

Given the obscene amounts of money flowing to a very few users and abusers, it might be a good idea again. I seriously doubt that many...or even any...of us would feel the lash; and if we did...we could afford it.

The very concept of a representative democracy is teetering on the brink of obscurity due to the strong corporate forces of authoritarianism and unrestrained greed. Mussolini once remarked that "the first stage of Fascism should be called 'corporatism' because it represents the joining together of corporate and governmental power".

Doesn't that sound like about EXACTLY where we are?

The only talk I heard on taxes was for the hedge fund managers. Example were the number of them making $20 million and only having to pay 15% tax on their income due to a loophole.

Many middle class couples both work at least one job, paying anywhere from 28-35% and in many cases paying the AMT (especially if they live in a high tax state) on top of it.

Some of the HB&B reps have opined on financial entertainment that it would be unfair to raise these hedge fund type of taxes and then they revert to the old "ad hominem" attacks. Similar to the ficticious email cited by Z.

I doubt if Limbaugh mentions that though.

ALOHA !!

moab ... The point is not about any one elected official it is about the "mindset" of BIG GOVERNMENT. Who in 1913 when this government first started taxing income at a 1% rate thought it would ever get to 45%?

I can guarantee you that the capital gains rate will go up when US tax revenues receed and they will receed because the housing boom is gone and the baby-boomers will move from a tax asset to a liability very soon! The Congress will have to act to make up the shortfall sooner or later and I believe we will see sweeping changes after Nov 2008!

BOOK YOUR PROFITS SOON while the capital gains tax rates are lower! If all your stocks are tied up in a 401k good luck when you retire! Don't expect a 15% long term capital gains tax to still be 15% in 20 years and do not expect income taxes to be lower or SS benefits to be higher! THE SQUEEZE IS ON!

I would have to ask the Dems and Reps who set tax rates why they don't move the minimum taxable income up to $50k if they care about the "working" people so much?

Thanks for all of the responses RE: options rights. I have previously heard that options could be executed at anytime but it doesn't seem to happen very often. It actually occured to me once before on an option I sold, but it was a small position so I didn't look far into it.

As for whomever exercised those, they did me a nice favor in exercising. I covered my short for a net profit and resold the call options at the same price but at the $40 strike (instead of $39), widening my sold options spread and decreasing my risk.

2nd

Just got in....doesn't look like I missed too much so far.

Except that Craig pulled an "Isaiah" and sold his SKF too soon. Craig that is a SUCKY feeling isn't it!
:^)

2nd.... you still holding UNG?

Investor or Gambler?.... stocks, options etc

While I may not understand the technical stuff about options I can understand the meat and potatoes of the author's main point about investing.

http://tinyurl.com/ypb27v

g034,
I look at Leeson as an individual that does what many traders do as even Cramer said he did on losing positions in his hedge fund days. Average down on big losing positions with OPM. It worked out for Cramer with luck on his side. It did not for Leeson. He was young, made some big bets unaudited, lied and hide his loses and went bust. Others have done the same but understood by the management as in the Natural Gas bust last year by that Canadian hedge trader. 10-1 leverage can be scary.

ALOHA !!

ronbon ... We are at the USSA! Any time you depend on BIG CENTRALIZED GOVERNMENT for your needs you are in trouble. Socialism failed and so did Facism ... I have no doubt the "democracy" now practiced in the USA will fail. Being a Republic got us from 1777 to 1913 in good shape, meaning the country grew from a slave of the King Of England to a World Power. Problem is we are back to being slaves of a KING again! This country was not founded on the democratic process we are now so infatuated with!

Many will disagree but in my opinion we need to revert back to the days of a Republic. If you are a legal American and you pay taxes then you get to vote.

ON RUSH
I am no Limbaugh fan ... I believe he is a Rep tool to divide Americans not unite them. Everyone is a "lib"! Just yesterday I heard him analysing a 3second pause in a speech by Sen Harry Reid! I mean he played that thing over and over ... "Here it comes ... listen ... SEE ... he's being coached!" WHO CARES? They're all coached becasue they're all idiots ... DEMS and REPS alike! He's just another "card carrying" idiot who happens to make a lot of money bashing "libs"! In my mind this country can't afford any "card carrying" at all!

They're selling them at the store ... "CLUES-R-US"! Get one!

Kaimu -

I agree with your point; you just didn't need to use that piece of ludicrous propaganda to make it.

I am reading an excellent book - The People's History of the United States. It makes the point that this country was founded on inequality. From the very beginning of colonial times, the rich controlled everything and manipulated the poor and non-white to maintain power and assets and prevent the white poor, slaves and native americans from joining together in rebellion. In fact, the rich lived in constant fear of rebellion. The American Revolution was about landlords championing just enough equality to prevent rebellion so the middle class would support the fight against England (and the repudiation of English taxes).

Today, taxes will have to go up to support the monstrous debt; the question is who will pay more. Only another Tea Party will bring responsibility back, but not for long.

kaimu:
You and I seem to have broad areas of agreement, and only minor disagreements. The 1913 date is an excellent one since it represents the onset of our desire to get our noses into eveeryone else's business. That, of course, accelerated after WWII and has run rampant ever since.

Growth of the Federal government resulted from inconsistent interpretations by individual states. Who was allowed to vote in Michigan versus Mississippi? Could a woman have an abortion in New York? How about Texas.

If we were to continue as a "country"...rather than 50 individual feifdoms, consistency is a must, although I often wonder whether the small feifdom route might work out better; if I don't like living in the Republic of Kentucky, I can always move to the Republic of Hawaii.

Maybe that's the true way to solving the problem.

FXP- out at 81.22, QID- out at 39.60...

I was a little concerned with the week ending on a rally but it looks like holding has been the right call so far. Now if the Nas would just quit trying to hold this entire market up by itself my QID could start popping too. ;-)

Yeah, the pause thing from Rush was absurd. For one thing he forgot to mention that Reid had a stroke a year ago. That would easily account for a pause in his speech.

That wouldn't matter, the dick went after a guy with parkinson's for crying out loud.

This type of person can't be treated negatively enough IMO.

He and that emaciated nut case Ann Coulter should be forced to live life tied to one another at the ass.

Morning and Merry Christmas, I have jumped right to the post a comment line so I may be seconding others input.Re the thread topic:
Whilst I look for a particular topic or thread on this page daily, I would not..NOT want to see it fragmented. In a perfect world when the Cara Tech Team (CTT is good, PPT is bad) gets to the point when they are fine tuning...turning the wine bottle by hand so to speak, then I would love to see several things: A topic sort button, a back to the top button on pages w/100 plus comments and Bills voice over whenever I scroll over his comments. Until then... Thank you Thank you Thank you Bill and your CTT. I can scroll past whatever topic I do not want today But please do not impose your perspective on my viewing and more importantly on someone elses blog. Bill does not use 12 comments to get his important thought of the day across. By slicing and dicing his group of 1000 eyes we will be divided and easy prey
Sincerely....peace from the north puget sound
Gray

Bill, unless you are already committed to the blackberry, you might want to consider getting a treo. They are much more versatile. They are very nearly like having a laptop in the palm of your hand.

hello,

for what it's worth here is my 2cents,

question: was there ever a time in recorded history when Utopia, Equality was a reality??
When "we the people" had and exercised power?

I think that the nature of money is that, if one has it then the other does not. When we sell a stock @ a profit it means that someone else suffered a loss, period. Therefore,all this talk of equality illogical. One cannot have maximum gains without the other having maximum loss.

Robin Hood may or may not have existed...

ronbon... your line:

"although I often wonder whether the small feifdom route might work out better; if I don't like living in the Republic of Kentucky, I can always move to the Republic of Hawaii."

Sparked something in my brain. I think that really is the answer. How can anyone feel represented in a democracy when they are basically lumped into one of two groups? How can any change be effected when it needs to be rolled out on massive, national scale? Why should wealth be transfered from a productive state to a less productive state?

I once read that one of the US's strength is its mobile workforce, i.e. willingness to move to where the work is. This is probably motivated by the US being less of a nanny state than more european countries or Canada. Look at the Canadian maritimes which has suffer record high unemployment for over a decade since fishing industry imploded. If Canada were less of a nanny state, the unemployed might have been more motivated to move to where the work was.

Anyhow, back to the political point, "small feifdoms" really just means less centralized goverment, which should mean smaller government. And instead of being un- or misrepresented by a lame 2-party system, people could simply vote with their feet.

The only thing I could think of that might need to be centralized are things that support trade and stability, i.e. contract law (which would include securities regulation), property rights, common currency (gold backed would of course solve that) and a few other things where economies of scale are important.

Obviously it's not that simple, but makes for an interesting mental exercise. Would probably make for an interesting computer game "Sim Country"

Kashuk et al, if I want hot tips, I can go to another site. Google 'hot penny stocks' and you will be directed to sites that give you zero political discourse.

Bill, regarding political discourse: your input is very valuable and unique. As far as I know, you are the only founder of a major brokerage who has not been co-opted by the manipulators and aggregators of middle class wealth. While there are others here that have worked on the 'inside', your positions have more gravitas and we need your credibility to avoid being labeled with conspiracy calumnies.

PaulC - I think that virtual trading is not really applicable to real trading. As the greatest trader of all had said. 'Yes, but can you shoot the winestem out of the glass when the glass has a loaded gun pointing at your heart.' Well that may not be exact, but it is very close.

On RUSH....

I am getting too old for that kind of music ... I just turn it off whenever I hear it.

MBIA getting nailed today on CDO squared exposure. No wonder senior management resigned months ago, they saw the end game.

Once MBIA is downgraded from AAA, there will be huge repercussions.

Moneygenie- i can't agree. Econ 101- both parties can (and should) benefit from a trade, whether stocks or any item. e.g. One person sells a stock to lock in a gain or to diverify, while the buyer believes the same stock a good value. Both parties gain by getting what they want.

calvino -- You knew this was coming, didn't you....

"I have heard of people who amuse themselves conducting imaginary operations in the stock market to prove with imaginary dollars how right they are. Sometimes these ghost gamblers make millions. It is very easy to be a plunger that way.

"It is like the old story of the man who was going to fight a duel the next day. His second asked him, "Are you a good shot?" "Well," said the duelist, "I can snap the stem of a wineglass at twenty paces," and he looked modest. "That's all very well," said the unimpressed second. "But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?"

-- Jesse Livermore

Bill. I truly hope you do not slice and dice the discourse into little pieces. I don't feel for those who have to scroll. If the banter upsets people's lives then they should move on to another blog where scrolling is not required. I scroll backwards which ensures I never miss a beat. Lets not forget the "Social Equity" component of the Blog. It's not all about the markets.

Moab, re: MBIA - Mike Shedlock has been on the case with a real sharp eye. He made the call two days ago, that they are insolvent and the manipulators are obfuscating the reality. He also nailed the Fannie and Freddie fiasco a couple of days before the news broke. He is on my wall of heroes along with Bill. Check his site for a good read. btw I do not mean to promote anyone on Bill's site, however there are not many established economists who are not bought and paid for by the manipulators, and it seems beneficial to us, as independent investors, to support the independent bloggers.

Blackberry Wave......

Just got off the phone about an upgrade. What are the Pro's and Con's. Has a 2 MP camera. Is that good? Is the PDA easy to use? How about the e-mail? Also interested in a TREO.

All input appreciated.....

Happy Holidays, All

my thought FWIW: doing well at trading prices requires that we come to the table with as little bias as possible, letting the market tell us what is "right".

Engaging in economic debates inevitably creates mental bias (for me) that really inhibits my trading.

Still holding almost full position of ultra-long emerging markets. On a close watch.

Dave

Market's technicals are still decidedly weak. The inability of stocks to rally during December (and actually decline) is telling. Historically, December is one of the strongest return months of the year. Housing issues in the real economy and credit issues in the financial economy have taken the "animal spirits" out of the market.

Another week or so of trading to the downside and the market may break the lows of late November, with important implications for stock prices. If this scenario plays out, we will issue a new research report on the GlobalMarkets' website.

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

I've done a bit of research on canadian flow-through shares, in which an investor uses the expenses as deductions against their own taxable income. Canadian investors who purchase flow-through shares are able to deduct up to 100% of the cost of their investment from their taxable income. Note that when I have mentionned flow-throughs to my accountant in the past, he has sighed with exasperation, implying it's probably a headache at tax-time, and subject to hassle by Revenue Canada.

Anyway, the flow-through opportunities that I've found on the web seem to be volatile junior resource penny stocks, such as:
Arsenal Energy, TSX : AEI.to
Erdene Gold, TSX : ERD.to

Another category are those administered by investment management firms offering so-called 'Flow-Through Limited Partnerships', which I understand to mean that I buy into a partnership, they trade the flow-through shares issued by junior resource companies, take some off the top and I the investor gets what's left. Most of these firms seem to offer mutual funds as well.

http://magnastrata.com/aboutus/about_us.html
http://www.creststreet.com/flowthrough.php

If any other Canadians have experience with flow-throughs I'd love to hear some opinions as year-end approaches.

Klingon288,

surely there must come a time when one will have and another not.... value adding, multiplying to infinity is not practical. The game ends and someone must lose.

Econ 101 or 1001 does not deal with the "nature" of money. Perception is a way of seeing,truth is another matter.

TIM on the TSE:

Some of us mentioned this company last week and I have started my DD on it.. may prove interesting if you like Solar

It had a "Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2007-12-17 at $16.32, -4.53% chg], after a 1 day DZ)" so have time to do DD

OT- Question for the Canadians- How do you feel about the Canadian dollar at par with the USD?

I have to admit my hard money views are weakening. In the short-term anyway (and that may be the key point), we here in Buffalo and western NY are benefiting greatly. County budget deficits are disappearing due to the added sales tax revenue from Canadian shoppers. Retail businesses are booming! The area around the cottage (Canadian Lake Erie shore) where I usually rent for week in the summer was dead- no people around. Honestly, I probably won't rent next summer due to the exchange rate- it costs me 1/3 more than it did 5 years ago.

With the US the biggest target of Canadian exports and US retailers so convenient to a large % of the Canadian population- is the strong Canadian dollar (or conversely a weak US dollar) a bad thing for Canada long-term?

Aucourant,
Hope you picked up some KRI, up 30% today. I took some off the table here, thinking it will need some positive news to run further.

This is big IMO:

The Lakota Indians, who gave the world legendary warriors Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse, have withdrawn from treaties with the United States, leaders said Wednesday.

"We are no longer citizens of the United States of America and all those who live in the five-state area that encompasses our country are free to join us," long-time Indian rights activist Russell Means told a handful of reporters and a delegation from the Bolivian embassy, gathered in a church in a run-down neighborhood of Washington for a news conference.

...

The new country would issue its own passports and driving licenses, and living there would be tax-free -- provided residents renounce their US citizenship, Means said.

The treaties signed with the United States are merely "worthless words on worthless paper," the Lakota freedom activists say on their website.

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Descendants_of_Sitting_Bull_Crazy_Horse_1220.html

Hi,

The close today will an inteeresting and educating one.

The open interest in SPX call options with strike 1450 is around 33.000 and in put options is around 45.000 options.

The last trading day is today, as expiration is tomorrow (actually it will be quadruple witching day).

So, what do you think will happen?

The market makers will squeeze the shorts into today's close.

Nice opportunity to make some cash in 2 1/2 hours by buying some calls.

Have fun.

macromatics

not sure what you mean by this:

"The last trading day is today, as expiration is tomorrow (actually it will be quadruple witching day)."

Options expire at close tomorrow leaving one more trading day.

Klingon288: You say,

"... both parties can (and should) benefit from a trade... e.g. One person sells a stock to lock in a gain or to diverify, while the buyer believes the same stock a good value. Both parties gain by getting what they want."

But what you want is not always what you get.

Can a person who is selling be selling short? If so does this not alter your basic premise?

I believe that if a seller is selling short he or she is trying to "sucker me in" to buy it at his price.

It is hard enough to buy trying to fiqure out the reasons the seller is selling... if it was only because it was to take a profit or to diversify I just have to be believe that it will still go higher. I think that "shorting" is nothing more than a technique (derivative) developed by "pure traders" to take advantage of the unknowing...at least when someone buys we all KNOW it in real time and that the basic reason lies in the belief that the price will go up while if someone sells we do not know in REAL TIME whether it is a short.

I know stock prices can go down but I am not so sure I would buy it if I knew the seller was shorting it.

I know that when I buy a house I try to find out why the seller is selling and if he/she had to tell me tell it was because they thought it was going to fall down in the "short" future I may not buy it. It would make it worse if they were the only company in town that make money by cleaning up the debris.

ALOHA !!

Klingon288 ... Whats the 288? I am waiting for someone to come onboard with the handle "FerenghiBoy"!!

moab ... Are they also talking about the US Peso? I wonder how long the US government will allow the Lakotas to exist in secession.

Look perhaps there should be a new set of POLITICAL LAWS for POLITICO ECON 101 students ... much like the LAW OF GRAVITY ...

THE MORE POWER YOU GIVE GOVERNMENT THE LESS POWER YOU OWN ...

THE MORE FREEDOM YOU GIVE GOVERNMENT THE LESS FREEDOM YOU OWN ...

THE BIGGER GOVERNMENT GETS THE SMALLER YOU GET ...

Those are the unchangable truths!

I have always said that HAWAII should seceed and go back to a Monarchy like MONACO and create a PACIFIC tax free haven with a 5000 mile moat! Europe has Monaco, South America and US has Bahamas and Australia and Asia should have HAWAII ...

DRIZZLE DRAZZLE ...

Horatio:

"...I scroll backwards which ensures I never miss a beat...

I tried the backwards way but found in most cases much of what I was reading did not make sense since it was based on something that was said previously.

You also said, "Lets not forget the "Social Equity" component of the Blog..." and in this regard I agree with you because this one of Bill's clearly stated reasons for having the blog.

QID- taking a second swing at 38.75...

wavesmash, the Scotts told the Donald 'Nay'. He has threatened appeal but the reversal of the Board which initially gave its OK for the vote looks to have caved in to local concerns for their relaxed and uncrowded lifestyle as well as the environmental impacts of the development and influx of humanoids from elsewhere.

Given the constriction on Trump's abilities to finance, he may well thank them after all is said and done. I wonder how much longer his Atlantic City developments will continue as his pool of liquidity shrinks like the State of Georgia's lakes.

QID- just read maromatics' post->ending this position at 38.62...

And the best road to Social Equity is political and economic debate. Like Bill says above the capital markets are clearly controlled by "vested interests" like major corporations and governments.

Once we stop debating and accept what they feed us every day is when we've become the pigs at the trough they tried so hard to raise.

Reading a fews days of comments to this blog will show anyone with an open mind how simple and stupid the labels, (Democrat, Republican, Liberal, Conservative) really are. People are vastly more complex and interesting.

And it turns out, at the end of most debates, we're mainly interested in getting the same things done; Honesty and Transparency in Capital Markets, Fiscal Responsibility in Government, Good Stewardship of our Land and Water Resources, Providing a Reasonable National Defense, and Helping our Less Fortunate Neighbors.

In addition we're also learning to play the most important game of our lives, one that can lead to a lucrative future if we remember the lessons and keep our eye on the ball.

These days, when the FED rallies the markets one day and crashes them the next, when the Chinese Government can jump in anytime and "buy" the market up, when Governments around the world can either turn on the firehose of money or drain the lake at their whim, not paying attention to and debating politics an economics can be short-sighted at best and disasterous at worst.

We all have to pay close attention to the mover and shaker manipulations and that includes our opinions about them. Otherwise, we're only looking straight ahead at that new carrot they just put in out trough.

And, for the record, I don't like these financial institutions selling out to China or to Arabs. It's another symptom of the overextensions of our society, in essence going to the loan shark, who eventually will break your legs even if you pay him on time. So now, they not only own the Treasury through the Bonds they hold but also own us through owning our bank and trading accounts. In a "free" capital market company shares would be punished for such reckless dilution.

Rob.

Hmm..no answers to the RSI discrepancy. Guess I should have sandwiched the question in between a Christian and a Rush Limbaugh posting. Maybe more eyeballs would nof seen it :)

Billy,

Here in Europe, several Banks only allow trading of US options untill one day before maturity.

Anyone have QLD? I'm showing it DOWN on the day, while QQQ is up almost 2%. What gives?

"Hmm..no answers to the RSI discrepancy. Guess I should have sandwiched the question in between a Christian and a Rush Limbaugh posting. Maybe more eyeballs would nof seen it :)

Posted by: geckojb at December 20, 2007 2:57 PM"

Interesting isn't it?

As for scrolling, you might want to try using Control+F. This allows your browser to search for key words. After some practice, it works quite well.

Ron

rgr:

great tip

Magnolia,

QLD is a derivative product, and as KAIMU and others have clearly explained some time ago, counterpart risk exists.

Smart money is jumping out of that kind of products and moving to other investment alternatives.

That movement is not related to market price.

So I guess that today's price reflects sellers pressure on the QLD etf from people who are simply getting out while they can get a liquidation.

rgr:

used it... that was your first post today?

Macromatics,
Good call on the market today. I was assuming all this fresh liquidity had to bid up prices eventually, I just can't figure out when.

Rob.

QLD was never down today and is up more than 3% now.

rgr:

used your tip...I gather that was your post today?

first post today?

Today is the ex-dividend date for QLD

http://www.proshares.com/funds/qld.html?Overview

http://www.proshares.com/funds/distributions

Fund Name UltraQQQ
Ticker QLD
Dividend .072
S.T. Cap Gain 4.65
L.T. Cap Gain .37
Ex-Date 12/20
Record Date 12/24
Payable Date 12/28

Macromatics -
Thanks for the clarification on options expiration. I was unaware of that.

Finger,

Thanks for the kind words.

Beginners luck I guess.

FYI already sold the calls purchased 2 hours ago @ a 10% profit.

Nimble, Nimble, Nimble.

We dance the quickstep here.

Cheers,

Gold Symmetrical Triangle:

Gold continues to trade within the formation. I have noticed that since my post on this formation that some well read internet bloggers/commentators have started to use this formation in their charts. Don't think they are listening to me, it's just getting more obvious and will be interesting to see how the pattern plays out.

IMO, Pelosi would love to become president, hike taxes, increase spending and continue to centralize the US government. She is not the only one, btw. That's why Ron Paul makes so much sense to so many of us.

Those "I bought xyz" posts will teach you something if you will just look. Although, I would like to see an in depth view on the "why's" of the trade (see my DOW trade a few weeks ago, posted here). That would be an improved learning experience.

Maybe holiday markets are for holiday parties?

"The Canadian dollar has been gaining strength since the end of last week, and has been moving more in tandem with the NAFTA trade, both the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso, than it has been of late."

Amero anyone?

http://tinyurl.com/39hx88

I wonder of Warren Buffett is going to join the Lakota tribe? Next you'll have Polynesian's setting up their own island next to Kaimu's.

Oh wait...

http://tinyurl.com/3akfsy

redclaydawg,

The vote was overruled by the Scottish government after threats from Trump to pick up shop & move to Ireland, & outcry from business community. The councillor who voted against the project was canned. 26 other members abstained from voting him out.... press seems totally biased. hot potato?

He'll probably be washing windows in Aberdeenshire by now.

Can't beat government or money...

Billy

Re Options

Maromatrics reference to the SPX options, last trading day today is I believe correct. These are a little different as they are index options, European style and thus quite different from equity / stock options.

CBOE has quite a lot of info on the various types of options, along with there individual specifications. Heres the link to the SPX index option spec.

http://www.cboe.com/Products/indexopts/spx_spec.aspx

Finished adding to ultra-long emerging markets - now have full position, been building since eod Monday.

Interesting to see RIMM trading up 5%+ going into its earnings release...not sure that I'd be a buyer here - the buy was a week ago when RSI(9) was under 30.

DaveB: what are you seeing in the Emerging Markets that warrants a full position? curious

Also, I give it up to Powershares they certainly know how to come up with unique products for their ETF lineup.

"Carl T. Delfeld submits: Powershares continues to introduce new and innovative exchange-traded funds with two that follow the Dorsey Wright point and figure charting and selection and weight based on relative strength. The ETFs hit most likely begin trading on markets on December 28th.
ADVERTISEMENT


The PowerShares DWA Developed Markets Technical Leaders Portfolio is based on the Dorsey Wright Developed Markets Technical Leaders™ Index. This Index includes approximately 100 companies domiciled in developed countries.

The PowerShares DWA Emerging Markets Technical Leaders Portfolio (CDNX: PIE.V - News) is based on the Dorsey Wright Emerging Markets Technical Leaders™ Index. This Index includes approximately 100 companies domiciled in emerging market countries.

Relative strength measures a stock's performance in relation to its peers'. Relative strength analysis has been in existence through various forms for nearly 100 years, but DWA believes it has refined this investment strategy, creating a robust tool for stock selection and portfolio construction.

DWA tracks multiple technical market indicators through a state-of-the-art Point & Figure charting methodology that identifies "technical leaders" within the marketplace. DWA selects approximately 100 of these technical leaders to include in each of its Technical Leaders™ Indexes. The PowerShares portfolios seek to replicate these indexes, giving investors easy access to the DWA investment strategy.

I think that the emerging market ETF is quite intriguing and may add it to some of Chartwell ETF's model portfolios to complement market cap weighted emerging market ETFs like the iShares (NYSEArca: EEM - News)".

Quasi,

Thanks for the clarification.

Bought WAG combo spread going into earnings release tomorrow. 37.50 Jan call w/ 35 Jan put.

Seems to trade w/ 6% volatility when earnings announced.

geckojb, I'm up ~6% since Monday's first buy and adding Tuesday. So, in my view this last add is using the house's money.

ADRE (the underlying tracking stock) has been one of the stronger performers recently, so I'm workign with strength, and it continues making higher highs and higher lows - another good sign.

I'll exit if it prints a lower low and lower high, or at the end of the month - whichever comes first.

FWIW- Kaimu- the 288 refers to my street address back in the days when I was using my brand new IBM PC with 1 MB of RAM and a 30 MB hard drive. I must have just finished watching Star Trek or something and needed a use id to get into Prodigy. Besides, if I didn't resemble Worf at the time, my face is now......oh never mind.

FWIW-2: This was the statement by moneygenie to which I was commenting:

"I think that the nature of money is that, if one has it then the other does not. When we sell a stock @ a profit it means that someone else suffered a loss, period. Therefore,all this talk of equality illogical. One cannot have maximum gains without the other having maximum loss. Robin Hood may or may not have existed..."

I thought that statement was overly pessimistic- implying that when you make money you are taking it away from somebody else. Is Warren Buffet a criminal responsible for massive finanicial losses for others?

I never meant that a buyer should never beware, but I still believe that both sides benefit from a trade. Good thing, or we wouldn't have markets.

Of course, this also assumes honesty and transparency in the transaction, which is a whole other issue. Admittedly, speculators may win or lose, but if you didn't benefit periodically, you would stop speculating.

DaveB: thanks for your thoughts - was curious on what you were seeing. I would caution you that "house money" is an behaviorial trap and should be conscience of it and it's negative effects in trading.
http://www.wordspy.com/words/housemoneyeffect.asp

gecko - scratch my second sentence (lol). I understand your thoughts and agree with the psychological issues cited. It is my money I'm working with - not the house's; whether or not I've cashed out the position.

However; adding to an already profitable trade is much easier and more logical than adding to a losing trade. I never mind if my last addition to a position is a loser (as long as it doesn't wipe out all previous profits!)

Dave

reference prior post

should read: "37.50 Jan calls w/ 35 Jan puts."

RIMM up another 7% in AH trading! People must've heard that Bill got a Blackberry...

As far as I know the, RSI data that Bill uses in the Daily Report is taken from the Korvus app. The only reason I can think of there being different values is that Korvus is using 2 different methods of calculating the values. I remember a few weeks ago he said that he was changing it so that the weekly values were taken from the daily data (he was gonna count back 5 days) rather than using the weekly data from Yahoo. He was going to do the same thing for the monthly (counting back 21 days, I think, instead of using the monthly Yahoo data). So maybe he made that change for the data Bill uses in the report, but not for the web app? The Google RSI Gadget I created uses the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly prices grabbed from Yahoo and it can be found at
http://www.bitdrip.com

The ultimate anti-Kudlow theme: "bearish", a musical parody of "cherish"

http://tinyurl.com/ytwtoq

Re: RSI

Don't forget, the math for RSI and MACD makes them appropriate for trending markets. For directionless, chopping markets, you need to use Stochastics and Wm%R. Don't make that rookie mistake if you are trading these markets.

Re: Powershares

Powershares are in my backyard, so I was familiar with their "Intelligent Indexes" from the beginning. Great stuff for smaller accounts. In a bull market, they allow you to add alpha without incurring trading costs which could place a major drag on performance. Also, in taxable accounts, their "creation, redemption" process is tax effective (shouldn't create distributions like a mutual fund). One thing I would like to mention though - their options can trade very thinly on new products, so don't use market orders (not a new thought here), you may find yourself paying 70 and seeing it settle at 10 by the market maker...not good for your p&l.

g034:

good reminder about the RSI

g034

Thanks for the heads-up reminder on stochastics and Wm%R.

Just off the top of my head, you must be out there in the suburbs around zip code 60187 if I took a guess.

Sorry Golfer, not meaning to ignore you, I've been away from the computer most of the day. I've posted a few times before.

Ron

Is anyone here familiar with the practice of wash trading? Is it done for any other reason than creating the appearance of activity? I was wondering if institutions can somehow pass paper back and forth to each other in order to effect price without actually changing their market position by much.
THanks,
YYZ

Limited Partnerships in Canada

http://tinyurl.com/yqp4d8

geckojb,

Sorry I didn't respond earlier, but I wasn't actively reading the commentary today. When I look at my RSI app now, I see this:

MBT 94.92 55.2 74.3 88.19 Sell alert (trig. 7 days ago [on 2007-12-11 at $93.80, +1.19% chg], after a 1 day DZ)

Which is exactly what I see in today's daily report. Since the ticker has unlikely been updated for today's close prices yet, that's the way it should be (it's using yesterday's close).

Oh! I see the problem! The columns are backwards between the Daily Report and my RSIApp program! The RSI-7 Daily *IS* 52.2 in the Daily Report, it is just on the RIGHT side -- the one in the 80s is the MONTHLY RSI. That make sense?

Jeff

I posted this late last night so maybe no one read it. I find it interesting that he argues on principle.

One on One with Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International

http://tinyurl.com/2bzo9d

‘GHARIB: Real quickly, what kind of response do you think we are going to get from Washington lawmakers about this trend of international investment in American companies, if at all?
HORMATS: I think they ought to be happy about it, in large measure because this, as I said in the outset is a country that is very short on capital. We need to import $3 billion roughly every working day. A lot of American companies need capital. The big suppliers of capital, internationally now are some of these sovereign wealth funds. And to try to cut it all or to interfere with it would deprive American institutions of important amounts of capital. Obviously there may be issues from time to time with specific investments. But in principles they've got capital. They have a high savings rate. We have a low savings rate. We need capital. It is the way the world is today. And they have to come to grips with that, with that reality.
GHARIB: The $3 billion solution. Thank you very much, Bob. ‘

Coleridge,

I wish I could say I had bought KRI but I have had misgivings about buying Canadian stocks for my IRA which charges humungous commissions on foreign stocks and makes position sizing very difficult. I was certainly not expecting such a huge move the very next day after I mentioned it in Bill's blog. Would the popularity of this blog have something to do with today's move? At any rate, I felt good that I had at least spotted it, thanks to Bills having called attention to it some months back. I will keep watching for an entry point but will not chase it--all my best buys have been falling knives that give a positive technical signal (the rubber band effect).

X-Factor to exhibitions in four cultural groups
By Ben Farmer
Last Updated: 1:51am GMT 20/12/2007

Whether your idea of a cultural evening is Strictly Come Dancing or Shostakovich, everyone fits into four cultural groups, say academics.

Researchers at Oxford University have identified the groups for a study into the link between social class, status and people's tastes in music, visual and performing arts…………..

Using the definitions, research published today for the Economic and Social Research Council found that the idea of a class-based cultural elite was a myth. Education and social status decided what people watched, listened to and attended rather than social class.

http://tinyurl.com/ywc3tw

Klingon288

Re:

I thought that statement was overly pessimistic- implying that when you make money you are taking it away from somebody else.

Posted by: Klingon288 at December 20, 2007 3:55 PM

Thank you for seeing that reflection. Bill’s blog is not the place for my explanation. Please know that I am grateful to you turning on a light for me.

Thank you my friend. Thank you Bill Cara for your gift of this “space”.

Last Magna Carta bought at US auction

By David Litterick
Last Updated: 12:39am GMT 20/12/2007

The co-founder of The Carlyle Group finalised yet another deal late on Tuesday, but this time the private equity titan had his eyes on a rather different target.

Instead of eyeing up an undervalued company or distressed asset, David Rubenstein snapped up a 13th century copy of Magna Carta - the only one in private hands - for more than £10m.

Dated 1297 and dubbed by some "the most important document in the world", the copy that went under the hammer at Sotheby's in New York is one of just 17 copies still in existence. ………

http://tinyurl.com/3yl9ay

Interesting observation:"house money" effect

[E]conomic theory rested for a long time on the concept of humans as rational individuals, acting in the light of perfect information. In fact, emotions play havoc with the decision-making process.

One experiment gave 10 students $ 30 each and offered them the chance of doing nothing or flipping a coin to win or lose $ 9. Seven opted to take the gamble. Another set of students was given no money and offered the chance of $ 30 for certain, or a coin flip which gave $ 39 on heads and $ 21 on tails. Only 43 per cent went for the flip, even though the range and prospect of the possible outcomes was the same.

This is described as the "house money" effect: people who have money in their pockets will choose the gamble; those who start with empty pockets will reject it.
—"A winning way with odds and evens," Financial Times, November 21, 1996

ALOHA !!

moneygenie ... Robert Hormats and Goldman Suchs is another of the elite dregs that have created the very problem he speaks of.

Why is it America has no savings? He will not ponder that question. Americans cannot afford to save because of the corrupt fiat monetary system that the FED(GS is a member)along with complacent US politicans(complacent is being too kind "sell out" is more to the point)established in 1913. How is it possible to save in an inflationary period where we have M3 that has been on the rise since Nixon closed the gold window for good in 1971? We have exported manufacturing and are now at the mercy of imports in the midst of a falling US Peso! That's a double whammy! When the BIG US Banks go down there goes that $3bil a day and there goes the US Peso, but Robert Hormat's bonus will go up and he'll move to the Bahamas along with the entire US Congress!

The final coup to US savings came when Greenspan lowered rates practically to zero! Even today whats the most you get from a money market fund 5%? If inflation is running closer to 15% what good is a 5% TAXABLE return that nets 3.7%? Even that isn't worth the risk since nowdays the fund you buy into stands a good chance of going belly up and you're faced with either losing all your principal or waiting five years to get it back! Heck, even banks are afraid to put their own money into another bank now!

So the elite bankers like Hormats need to stop talking about the pathetic US savings rate as the problem and look in the mirror to see the REAL PROBLEM!! These are the same guys that preach "globalization"!

Congrats Bill!!
You deserve every award out there. This site is the best! Your site definitely seems the best as well if you read through all the descriptions of sites that won. Whoever wrote the descrptions of the winners sites must love your site too. That should give you a deserved traffic boost for sure. Cheers and Happy Expiration Friday from chilly New York.

Rob.

If anyone is interested in what a CDO squared is.

It is what MBI reported holding today that sent their stock down 20%

http://tinyurl.com/22nzq6

I read a little of it and from what I read I wouldn't buy it. How could you ever figure out what you're buying? They advise using a computer model if you're planning on buying it. That sounds like a red flag to me.

Rob.

More on the significance of SDO squared investments and the "insurance" behind much of this paper.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1198181083.php

Asian markets have heated up - looks like we get a Christmas rally - triple witching tomorrow...good trading

anyone following the uranium market? that's quite a reversal this week. most stocks have come in hard on their august lows and bounced back. ccj is the tell, but its the juniors I am interested in... anyone...bueller...

Big bill passed in the states regarding nuclear power... have to search for the info...

Greetings from a happy Bull Hunter, now on vacation for 12 days.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes for this morning:

Upgrade:

RIMM - to Outperform @ Bear Stearns

Target Lowered:

MU - from $7 to $6.50 @ Caris & Co.

Target Raised:

RIMM - from $150 to $155 @ UBS

-----------------------------------------------

Have a fun and safe holiday season.

Bull,

Thank you again for the service you provide. May you thoroughly enjoy your vacation.
Happy Hunting!

The uranium business never ceases to amaze me

Cameco's Cigar Lake mine flooded in late October, 06 and is being rehabilitated. They just released an update stating it won't reopen until 2011!! and the stock rose 2.7% Holy cripes! To me that is analogous to: "Good news Mr. Smith, we got the wood splinter out of your toe, we amputated from the knee down! Have a nice day.".

Bill,
Congratulations on a much deserved BESPy award. You've created and are sustaining a great work.

Stu

Good morning everyone:

Noront NOT.V Press Release this a.m.:

http://tinyurl.com/3az82k

"...Eagle One occurrence continues to display consistent high grade intersections of Nickel, Copper, Platinum and Palladium over quite impressive widths."

As an ignorant newbie on these types of PR's, my learning curve is steep.
Seems to be a follow-up on PR from last week?

Thanks,
Stu

Disclosure: long NOT.v

Bill,

Congratulations.

All,

Here in Europe there is almost nobody in the offices. Even trading desks are already half empty. Institutional clients are already out of the office, and to be honest, the mood in trading rooms is can be described as: "who cares about this now. We´ll do it again next year. Enough is Enough".

My trading desk "de facto" closes at tea time today for drinks and finger food. Who cares about prices any more...

Shopping malls, however, are full albeit people are not necessarily shopping. Highways are jam packed, as people drive outside of the big city.

Today is quadruple witching.

If you are not a poker player, stay out and go have som fun. It is dangerous to trade days like this.

Season's greetings to all!