Ron Paul and Glen Beck video interview here:

http://www.glennbeck.com/home/index.shtml

Transcript here:

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0712/18/gb.01.html

Historical Note:
On this date in 1915 was born the incomparable French singer Edith Piaf.
"Ah, lass, ye were gone too soon." (Died October 11, 1963).

The only thing I didn't like from Glen Beck were the questions about some crazy people that used Ron Paul's name to back up 9-11 conspiracy's. No other candidate has to answer for loons in the world that say they support them. Glen Beck was very fair other than that in my opinion. Good for him for doing the interview.

Hello from the Southern tip of Africa.

I have just posted a new blog article entitled "Is this the end of the stock market party?" I am particularly concerned about the message conveyed by some long-term charts as well as the rather gloomy earnings outlook.

Here is the link to the full article: http://tinyurl.com/2hl5ze

As mentioned in the post, I'm not ruling out a short-term rally, especially as the DJIA has rallied 20 times in the past 22 years during the week of the December options and futures expiration. I am, however, reluctant to try and play potential short-term rallies too aggressively with the long-term (primary trend) charts beginning to look so bearish.

"(WSJ) California's Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger last week said he would declare a fiscal emergency in the state..."

Fair is fair. It's time again to start up the recall machinery.

ronbon, thanks very much. Where else on the net can we find a place that mentions the Glen Beck and the sublime Edith Piaf in the same breath?

Nice to see some charges in the Refco case.

Crain’s Dec 18, 2007 A Chicago lawyer lied about the finances of Refco Inc., misleading investors who lost more than $1 billion in the financial downfall of the commodities brokerage powerhouse, a prosecutor said Tuesday.

Joseph P. Collins, 57, of Winnetka, a partner with Chicago-based Mayer Brown LLP, was charged in a criminal indictment with conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, bank fraud, money laundering and with filing false documents with federal securities regulators.

The Securities and Exchange Commission also brought a civil complaint in U.S. District Court in Manhattan against Collins, who worked at the firm's Chicago and New York offices.

http://tinyurl.com/285soa
(may need subscription)

Talk about risk taking . . . . video @ 2:26. . . . visual free fall.

http://tinyurl.com/23at2v

Reminds me of the risk one takes in today’s ever changing market! LOL

My take on the Glen Beck show was that Glen tried to put a dent in Paul's support numbers. He talked about the fringe groups, one-to scare average people who don't take/have the time to do their own DD, and two-to try shake the support of the fringe groups by trying to suggest that Paul doesn't support them or their causes. Paul knows this and the great thing about him is he doesn't give them the fight they want. He just speaks about his message of freedom, peace, and honesty. More people are waking up the the truth that very few in power care about the people who elected them. Paul is a shining example of a politician who cares about his constituents.

American Fascism - Embrace it.... or destroy it! Vote Ron Paul 08'

good morning Bill;

Re: Beck - Paul Interview.

Random Thoughts/Provocations on the Main Issues:

Whos is the 'enemy'? The enemy is "..the philosophic danger endorsed by the status quo."
Congressman Paul must be referring to HB & B!

Privacy:
Does the U.S. Constitution contain an implied right to privacy? This is the question that usually is asked of Supreme Court nominees. Well, does it?

U.S. Constitution: "...only Congress can declare war." But the conduct of foreign policy resides in the Oval Office.

Paul: "...we saved the dollar with interest rates of twenty one percent." Did it?

Separation of Church and State:
Beck baited Paul with a "...you've got to be a religious and moral people" line; Paul avoided religion and stuck with the "...immorality is through our government" line.

Abolishment of the IRS and Beck's response:
The imagery of Beck french kissing Paul ....
Did Beck offer to french kiss Ann Coulter?

So the IRS would be abolished and replaced with freedom. Would like to know more about this one!

It's 0953 and I'm distracted by the equity markets.

This whole argument about the U.S. restraining Israel, leave it for another day.

good day all.

Stu

Any news on NOT.to? Below $4 usd

2nd

Thanks for your reply. It was very helpful... You made many good points. I even printed it out and highlighted them.

Will get back to you on that question. It will come as a surprise to you.

Merrill Lynch indicator, which looks at the combination of the yield curve and corporate spreads, is now flashing a 100 per cent probability that the U.S. economy will slide into a recession over the next 12 months.

Globe & Mail: http://tinyurl.com/2ulon9

Bill and community,
A noteworthy snub to Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B) and investment opportunity for the intrepid is a website Prosper. http://www.prosper.com/join/Chipata

Prosper brings potential borrowers and lenders together in a virtual market that appears to provide an attractive return to lenders and a reasonable cost to borrowers. Lenders are given extensive information about borrowers, including credit information and referrals. They can lend as little as $100 on any one deal, which allows them to diversify their risk without committing larger sums. Loans are for 3 years.

Seamus

Great video.......... I could NEVER do that!

NOT.V and PNP.TO- adding to both...
UNG- if you're not already holding, buying opportunity?
other than that, hanging back and waiting for the right pitch (eye on FXI/FXP, EEM/EEV, OIH/DUG)...

NOT.V (not NOT.TO)- Fidelity quoting 4.08/4.12

Wells Fargo Economics California Report

This does not paint a rosy picture for the California economy. I like the "Fasten your seatbelts" second page. Tough statement coming from a major bank.

https://www.wellsfargo.com/downloads/pdf/com/
research/california/socal122007.pdf

Kaimu:

Any insights into the latest press release from ECU Silver, specifically the following:

"Micon has made certain recommendations to our analysis and in particular have identified areas of our analysis where we can upgrade
certain resources into the higher classifications of measured and indicated, which the Company views as positive for the resource estimate."
Long ECU
TIA ronK

Anyone know what's up with EMR.V? Up 50% recently with no news. Thanks

The NOT junkies are at agoracom.com. They talk the fundamentals/technicals.

Advice needed:

I am a basic investor/trader (buy/sell) who doesn't do options or short selling.

I am thinking of doing more learning in the area of options and/or shorts during the coming year.

From a trading standpoint only which is the better method to persue. i.e if you only could use only 1 of the 2 which one would you favour?

TIA

SLW - Long @ 14.32/stop below yesterday's low. Reference a 10-min chart, EMA(25) and SMA(50) and SMA(100) crossover.

SiO2, here is the picture of the Merrill Lynch recession indicator: http://tinyurl.com/2g6baw

Just in case you missed it, John Hussman's model also called a recession about three weeks ago. Here is the link to that story: http://tinyurl.com/2f7pcg

FOR YOUR LISTENING PLEASURE

Edith Piaf Hymne à l'Amour English subtitles

http://tinyurl.com/2sgezv

"The NOT junkies are at agoracom.com."

thanks...

(site for BMD junkies->those of us invested in this dog need one ;)

2nd, got some UNG 34 Calls. If this thing doesn't get up to mid February it won't go up for a long time.

Bought 1K NOT @ 3.99. I have another order to buy 1K at 3.75. Then I wait. Although a full position for me is 15K usd on any one stock, on speculation issues, it is half.

As I'm still practicing my chart reading, I was wondering if someone else could look at this xlf chart and confirm that it may be hitting an interim bottom and is starting to turn up, looking at MACD, RSI, and full stochastics. Thanks for any feedback. I'm not making any investment changes off it at this time, but trying to learn.
http://tinyurl.com/37z7aw

Golfer,
If you follow Dr. Elder, like some here do, you may want to read the section in his book "Come Into My Trading Room" which discusses the pros and cons of option trading. Elder's book explains the pitfalls of options trading, as well as what he calls "the standard brokerage house propaganda". If you're already trading, its a lot easier to incorporate short trading than it is to get into options. Than's just my opinion, and a lot of people swear by options.

Thank you, moneygenie. Last evening, my wife and I put on an Edith CD, uncorked a bottle of French wine (the delightful Picpoul de Pinet) and just celebrated her gifts to the world.

Prieur,

HOPE is a four letter word that will sink an investor.

Thanks for your inputs and the ML recession chart.

Seamus, nice video.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007 Don Harrold Commentary http://tinyurl.com/2ozo9x

"The Chinese Are Coming, The Chinese Are Coming"

I do not take credit for much. If I have any gifts they come from God. God, who gives me what I have is where the credit lies.

What I will take credit for is what I do with the gifts God gave me. Sometimes taking credit means, "taking responsibility" for things I mess up. Sometimes, though, just sometimes, it means, "taking credit" for getting something right.

When I woke this morning to the headline of, "Morgan Stanley Loses $5.8B After $9.4 Billion 4Q Writedown, Gets $5B Investment From China," I thought of all the times I told you in the last two years about how disastrous the housing market would be for our economy. I thought of all the times I wrote about the way we were being sold out to our foreign creditors. I thought of all the times I railed against the way the mainstream media "shrugged off" the importance of what was to come. No, in fact, the way the mainstream media told you there would BE NO PROBLEMS (starting with "subprime").

I got it right. From the start, I got this whole "subprime" thing right. As Jim Cramer said famously, "dead right". (You must watch this, short, video: http://www.donharrold.net/videos/Untitled.html)

One difference here in my being right and "the other guys" is, I want you to guard yourself against what's coming next. The next part being when "the piper" gets paid with respect to the US economy.

Let's forget the stock market for a moment. You know what? Stock prices are so manipulated that, well, who knows what happens or when there. I believe the market will tank hard soon, but, let's assume the market WILL NOT tank. For this commentary, that's fine to assume.

Let's look at the core of our economy and what's happening, RIGHT BEFORE YOUR EYES.

Billions and Billions and BILLIONS of dollars are lost, or, "written down", due to this "subprime" housing debacle. The Federal Reserve's answer is to "inject" BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars in to the economy to prop things up. Corporate America's answer is to sell off parts of their companies (5% of Citigroup, $5 Billion into Blackstone, 10% of Morgan Stanley, etc) to our masters (China, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, etc).

And, we're talking about the GOVERNMENTS of those countries.

There's more we don't know. There will be more to come.

Now, the talk today on CNBC will be about the "surprise" write-downs and losses at Morgan Stanley. The discussions about "who is next" will be humorous and sad. The way the market may "shrug off" the problems will be, again, humorous, and sad.

The story on Morgan Stanley continues:
Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 U.S. investment bank, n Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter loss due to a $9.4 billion writedown from its exposure to subprime and other mortgage-related investments.

The company also said China's government-controlled investment vehicle has invested $5 billion to help replenish its capital.

China Investment Corp., which also owns a stake in private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP, will control no more than 9.9 percent of Morgan Stanley once its investment converts to common shares in 2010. - (source: AP)
"Larger than expected"? That's how mainstream wallstreet excuses the lies they told you. That's how the "pros" get to excuse the way they sold America the fat, bloated, stinking pig called, "everyone in America deserves to be a 'home owner'".

And, what's this? The Chinese government will now own 10% of the 2nd largest US investment bank? No kidding? I just saw a whole conversation on CNBC hailing that as a wonderful thing. How nice it was for China to help us out.

Truth is, this is how the west is lost.

The federal reserve, (all together, now!) an unelected, unaccountable, and, secretive privately-held corporation that makes money by loaning us our money and controlling our economy despite the wishes of our founding fathers...

...breathe...

...the federal reserve ruined our country for profit. They dropped interest rates to near zero which they knew would jam every last human in America into a "home". If they did NOT know the effect this would have had, they need to be REMOVED IMMEDIATELY FOR ABSOLUTE IGNORANT MALPRACTICE. If they DID know - as I propose - they should be IMPRISONED TODAY and the federal reserve building should be demolished, post haste.

(A boy can dream, can't he?)

Now that our infrastructure is crumbling and our citizens are enslaved into debt at all time highs, the federal reserve allowed the first CHINESE BANK to open in New York... Bet you forgot about that. Plus, the Chinese get to own a voting-rights interest in the 2nd largest US investment bank, to boot.

Where is my ramble rambling to?

Point is this: We owe China TRILLIONS. They know they won't get it. So, they are now buying us from the inside. They will be our masters in a very real sense.

You better get used to it, too. It's not going to change in your lifetime. This is just the start.

JUST THE START.

Just think, in a simple press release this morning it is "announced" that CHINA will own 10% of Morgan Stanley.

For that to happen, there were MONTHS of negotiations. Maybe a year or more. But, you found out today.

Just think, of all the future news you'll get that China bought this or China bought that.

You'll be told how wonderful those purchases will be, too. You'll hear how neat it will be that China "believes so much" in America that they're willing to "help out" our economy.

I could go on, I suppose. My point's made. You need to decide who and what you'll trust for for your financial advice.

You can keep believing the liars of mainstream wallstreet who told you there was only "economic Nirvana" (Erin Burnett, who I could just kiss right on the lips for that wonderful quote) or not. That's up to you.

I will continue to choose truth. I'll continue to trade my account based on technical analysis. I will continue to thank God for the gifts given to my family and pray I'll be able to support my family as the ownership of America is handed to people our founding fathers warned would be our masters, if we allowed it.

Sincerely,
Don Harrold
http://www.stockpickgurus.com

PS - The next time you hear Larry Kudlow (et al) talk about the "goldilocks" economy, you remember this: America's economy is in debt at historic levels, the trillions we owe are to China (et al), and now, those countries are exacting payment from our infrastructure. If that's "goldilocks", then, "the three bears" have begun to eat her alive. The idea that we have a "free market" economy is a flat-out lie. The US economy is a rigged system that has failed you. The only thing close to "free" about our economy is the "value" of the US dollar, which continues to erode into oblivion. No, Larry, this is not the "goldilocks" economy. This is what happens when you allow your nation to be controlled by private banks who then facilitate the sale of your infrastructure to your creditors and enemies.

This is an email I received so cannot post to link. I think it ties in with the Ron Paul/ need for change.

Wednesday, December 19, 2007 Don Harrold Commentary
http://tinyurl.com/2ozo9x

"The Chinese Are Coming, The Chinese Are Coming"

I do not take credit for much. If I have any gifts they come from God. God, who gives me what I have is where the credit lies.

What I will take credit for is what I do with the gifts God gave me. Sometimes taking credit means, "taking responsibility" for things I mess up. Sometimes, though, just sometimes, it means, "taking credit" for getting something right.

When I woke this morning to the headline of, "Morgan Stanley Loses $5.8B After $9.4 Billion 4Q Writedown, Gets $5B Investment From China," I thought of all the times I told you in the last two years about how disastrous the housing market would be for our economy. I thought of all the times I wrote about the way we were being sold out to our foreign creditors. I thought of all the times I railed against the way the mainstream media "shrugged off" the importance of what was to come. No, in fact, the way the mainstream media told you there would BE NO PROBLEMS (starting with "subprime").

I got it right. From the start, I got this whole "subprime" thing right. As Jim Cramer said famously, "dead right". (You must watch this, short, video: http://www.donharrold.net/videos/Untitled.html)

One difference here in my being right and "the other guys" is, I want you to guard yourself against what's coming next. The next part being when "the piper" gets paid with respect to the US economy.

Let's forget the stock market for a moment. You know what? Stock prices are so manipulated that, well, who knows what happens or when there. I believe the market will tank hard soon, but, let's assume the market WILL NOT tank. For this commentary, that's fine to assume.

Let's look at the core of our economy and what's happening, RIGHT BEFORE YOUR EYES.

Billions and Billions and BILLIONS of dollars are lost, or, "written down", due to this "subprime" housing debacle. The Federal Reserve's answer is to "inject" BILLIONS and BILLIONS of dollars in to the economy to prop things up. Corporate America's answer is to sell off parts of their companies (5% of Citigroup, $5 Billion into Blackstone, 10% of Morgan Stanley, etc) to our masters (China, Dubai, Saudi Arabia, etc).

And, we're talking about the GOVERNMENTS of those countries.

There's more we don't know. There will be more to come.

Now, the talk today on CNBC will be about the "surprise" write-downs and losses at Morgan Stanley. The discussions about "who is next" will be humorous and sad. The way the market may "shrug off" the problems will be, again, humorous, and sad.

The story on Morgan Stanley continues:
Morgan Stanley, the No. 2 U.S. investment bank, n Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter loss due to a $9.4 billion writedown from its exposure to subprime and other mortgage-related investments.

The company also said China's government-controlled investment vehicle has invested $5 billion to help replenish its capital.

China Investment Corp., which also owns a stake in private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP, will control no more than 9.9 percent of Morgan Stanley once its investment converts to common shares in 2010. - (source: AP)
"Larger than expected"? That's how mainstream wallstreet excuses the lies they told you. That's how the "pros" get to excuse the way they sold America the fat, bloated, stinking pig called, "everyone in America deserves to be a 'home owner'".

And, what's this? The Chinese government will now own 10% of the 2nd largest US investment bank? No kidding? I just saw a whole conversation on CNBC hailing that as a wonderful thing. How nice it was for China to help us out.

Truth is, this is how the west is lost.

The federal reserve, (all together, now!) an unelected, unaccountable, and, secretive privately-held corporation that makes money by loaning us our money and controlling our economy despite the wishes of our founding fathers...

...breathe...

...the federal reserve ruined our country for profit. They dropped interest rates to near zero which they knew would jam every last human in America into a "home". If they did NOT know the effect this would have had, they need to be REMOVED IMMEDIATELY FOR ABSOLUTE IGNORANT MALPRACTICE. If they DID know - as I propose - they should be IMPRISONED TODAY and the federal reserve building should be demolished, post haste.

(A boy can dream, can't he?)

Now that our infrastructure is crumbling and our citizens are enslaved into debt at all time highs, the federal reserve allowed the first CHINESE BANK to open in New York... Bet you forgot about that. Plus, the Chinese get to own a voting-rights interest in the 2nd largest US investment bank, to boot.

Where is my ramble rambling to?

Point is this: We owe China TRILLIONS. They know they won't get it. So, they are now buying us from the inside. They will be our masters in a very real sense.

You better get used to it, too. It's not going to change in your lifetime. This is just the start.

JUST THE START.

Just think, in a simple press release this morning it is "announced" that CHINA will own 10% of Morgan Stanley.

For that to happen, there were MONTHS of negotiations. Maybe a year or more. But, you found out today.

Just think, of all the future news you'll get that China bought this or China bought that.

You'll be told how wonderful those purchases will be, too. You'll hear how neat it will be that China "believes so much" in America that they're willing to "help out" our economy.

I could go on, I suppose. My point's made. You need to decide who and what you'll trust for for your financial advice.

You can keep believing the liars of mainstream wallstreet who told you there was only "economic Nirvana" (Erin Burnett, who I could just kiss right on the lips for that wonderful quote) or not. That's up to you.

I will continue to choose truth. I'll continue to trade my account based on technical analysis. I will continue to thank God for the gifts given to my family and pray I'll be able to support my family as the ownership of America is handed to people our founding fathers warned would be our masters, if we allowed it.

Sincerely,
Don Harrold
http://www.stockpickgurus.com

PS - The next time you hear Larry Kudlow (et al) talk about the "goldilocks" economy, you remember this: America's economy is in debt at historic levels, the trillions we owe are to China (et al), and now, those countries are exacting payment from our infrastructure. If that's "goldilocks", then, "the three bears" have begun to eat her alive. The idea that we have a "free market" economy is a flat-out lie. The US economy is a rigged system that has failed you. The only thing close to "free" about our economy is the "value" of the US dollar, which continues to erode into oblivion. No, Larry, this is not the "goldilocks" economy. This is what happens when you allow your nation to be controlled by private banks who then facilitate the sale of your infrastructure to your creditors and enemies.

Anyone watching Khan Resources? It was down to $1.26 C yesterday! Is this a good time to buy or is there something else going on with the company? Though uranium prices have gone down over the last 6 mo, I would assume nothing has changed regarding projections for the industry as a whole. Even Laramide is back to around $5. Laramide also owns a percentage of Khan. Any insights would be appreciated.

Here it comes: HCMEB&B

Humungous Chinese & Middle-Eastern Bank & Broker!

Speaking of the Chinese, those wishing to invest in China real estate, a new ETF has hit the market: Symbol TAO, The All That Is.

Special interest groups is what sinks the “intent” behind most government policies. Look at the tax code or the Medicare billing process->convoluted beyond belief as they amend/append/curtail/exclude/waive in efforts to appease multiple interests. The day the government adopts KISS will be the day everything starts to work the way they lay it out to us in their election speeches.

I've always lived by:

Unless you vote in an election, you aren't allowed to criticize the results...

Is the woodshed available?

aucourant, Mongolia is on the news lately. On the surface (and I stress that) it does look like competition for Hugo as not so good countries to invest in, so it's probably scaring people away.

KRI - aucourant

WOW, KRI is down to its price of August, '06. And it still is a "falling knife" - difficult to catch without bloody consequences! The few non-mongolian uraniums I glanced at looked down, but not THAT down!

Old Goat, is that kind of technical turn something that would look toward the very short term, short term or farther out? I've been looking at a good entry for SLW also. How does SLW look on other counts, besides fundamentals?

Moneygenie -

Warren Buffett said a couple of years ago, that if he ran the Chinese gov't, he wouldn't be accumulating the paper of his deadbeat debtor, but rather the productive assets!

(Buffett's choice of words was more polite.)

Dance Bill, dance!

Decided to do the rhumba on the SKF railway. It just took some time for MS to sink into the financials/XLF.

Denny, did the last dip answer your Q on XLF?
We aren't close to a bottom yet as long as there is more bad debt/siv/cdo info to leak/reprice/lose, and this is like the slowest leaky tire you've ever exerienced.

Remember, they count on you knowing the chart but letting it fog the fundamentals, which stink.

I'm kicking myself for not having shorted Aurelian:

QUITO, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Ecuador wants to slap a 70 percent windfall-revenue tax on mining companies which would kick in when the prices of copper, gold and other commodities exceed a certain level, Oil and Mining Minister Galo Chiriboga told Reuters on Tuesday.

The tax would apply to small miners already present in the Andean country and to big international companies that might set up operations in the future if large discoveries are made.

The new duty is part of a tax reform bill introduced on Monday by leftist President Rafael Correa, who proposes boosting state control over the economy and natural resources.

"A clause will be included in contracts so that if there are extraordinary revenues due to a fluctuation in prices for that product, the tax norm will be applied," Chiriboga said in a telephone interview.

Craig, I'm not sure if it answered my question. These wild gyrations are making it tough. I hedged my ignorance by asking if it was an interim bottom, based on the chart. I had no idea how long that might last, though. It just looked like it was turning, so I wanted to double-check.

I had the opposite question on the SKF!

It was looking like a bottom intraday, which turned out to be true so far.

Long term I can't imagine XLF has bottomed nor even come close. IMO there are many shoes to fall in this sector. Look at S&P's ratings of the bond insurers and now MS and Fifth Third...

*I* wouldn't touch them with *your* money!

ALOHA !!

ECU SILVER will be the premiere junior explorer in Mexico once the "revised" 43-101 is out. I do not take the delay as a "negative" although it looks as if other shareholders do. Buying below $2 will be an early Christmas gift!

I did find out that Goldman Sachs held the 2mil shares sold off a few weeks ago at the end of the trading day. Nothing like a little HB&B hanky panky! I would not be surprised to see them buy back in soon in a similar sneaky manner.

"*I* wouldn't touch them with *your* money!"

Craig,

I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole. Stanley Kowalsky, a ten foot Pole, said he wouldn't touch them either. :^)

I haven't met Stanley. Is he the guy on those Enzite commercials?

re SLW. I have made some $ on this stock and irrationally, am fond of it. As a newbie, please correct me if I'm wrong, macd has crossed over to the neg. Its oversold but has not been that way for long.It has not tested aug lows, and the price of silver is up for the day only, though may be trending up over 3 months.
So, my question is....if this is a play, is it only a short term play or adding to a lt on the dips?
Also, to Bill and others;
Is it better to sell any gold stocks that are even or only slightly underwater now and wait for a larger step back below 800? or hold and buy on the dip to average down?
Also, long ARU! (5%of total portfolio) so the news is distressing or only worrysome in the short term
peace from north puget sound
Gray

I believe UBS reiterated their buy rating on HRB and quoted $27 target. How else can the broker trainees call MR and Mrs. Gullible and promise a 47% gain by next yr in these hard times?

But the stock looked tired and is acting accordingly. But i assume the institutions will expire the Dec $17.50 puts worthless this week. then we shall see.

Jock,

Don't forget Buffet just went to China and bought stuff and his furniture is manufactured there.

Maybe we should invest in a copy of the Rosetta Stone in cantonese/mandarin??

ronbon,

You're welcome!! thank you for reminding me of such pleasure and that one ought to be grateful more often.

I think we should be investigating what happens if MBIA and other bond insurers lose their AAA credit rating. S&P has reaffirmed their AAA rating today but put them on negative watch. But if they lose this rating sometime next year banks may have to recognize additional loses as they will not be able to count on the insurance on some of their holding. This insurance is enabling securities that are not AAA to be rated AAA.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/12/doubts-on-12-trillion-of-debt.html

This seems like the next potential trigger in the credit crisis to me. ACA was downgraded today to CCC!

Anyone have thoughts on this?

Zacks new target of HRB is $16.50 and they reiterated their sell rating this morning.

Full PDF here: http://tinyurl.com/2syb6t

SLW - Note support at, and crossover of, the 10-minute SMA(50) and SMA(100).

AKAM - 10-minute chart looks similar to (and in fact now much better than) SLW. Disclosure: Long AKAM. Kudos and thanks to Chairman Maoxian's black box (maoxian.com).

Denny - TraderX (traderx.blogspot.com) uses setups like the first two candles on today's 10-min SLW chart for intraday trades, basing long or short entries and stops on moves above/below the second small bar and trailing stops closely. You may find his analysis and approach interesting and potentially useful (as do I).

My time horizon is also fairly short, but I do sometimes let a trade run for several days or longer, trailing stops and generally exiting when the EMA(25) crosses the SMA(50) on a 10- or 15-minute chart.

Photog - For me, it's a short-term trade, nothing more.

DISCLAIMER: I do not ever make recommendations to buy or sell securities, and nothing that I post should ever be interpreted as such. I on occasion post certain of my thoughts, observations and opinions, and sometimes one or two of my trades, which together with the accompanying chart references are intended to be illustrative of my trading methodology and thought processes, and are intended for educational use only. Do your own due diligence! You are solely responsible for your trades, investments and decisions.

I was thinking about UNG price action lately, and was wondering if there were any large commodity funds (goldman sachs now S&P commodity fund, DJ AIG) doing a big reweighting again this year like they did last year.

Did a search on the web and couldn't find anything on the energy side, but found this article talking about zinc and nickel potentially getting a boost because of DJ AIG reweighting.

http://tinyurl.com/2rzffx

Probably just a short boost, but good to know nonetheless

Let the Tax Loss Selling begin?

I think many of the builder and mortgage stocks may experience a significant tax loss effect in the last few trading days of the year which might be tradeable. I think the effect is most pronounced when a stock incurs a large loss in a single calendar year, which is what has happened in these sectors. My watch list consists of the following tickers: HOV MHO SPF PHM KBH TOL DHI RYL CTX LEN CFC LEND NFI TMA FNM FRE

The effect can be observed in GM on a 3-yr chart. There was significant selling in Dec 2005 as investors bailed to lock in their loss for the 2005 tax year.
http://tinyurl.com/2665rv (GM 3-Yr stockcharts.com)
There was a little more selling the first trading day of 2006 as a few investors choose to take their loss in 2006, then GM rose 10% in 5 days.

Although Kirk Kerkorian was manipulating GM by pretending he was going to make a big investment and turn GM around, I still think much of price effect was due to tax loss selling and possibly stock repurchase after the 30-day wash-sale period expired (see end of Jan 06).

I'd be interested to hear what others thought of this situation.

I will be watching HOV and other builders at the end of the year...

Pertaining to 2nd’s lament on Ron Paul and Global warming on Tuesday,

I never understand why rational people can accept that CNBC represents financial “entertainment” television but fail to extend the same self-serving insidious overtones to other forms of media. When Newsweek came out with its cover story “Global Warming Hoax” (Aug 20th, 2007), I found it telling that the same magazine editorialized that this issue was “fundamentally misleading” only one week later (http://tinyurl.com/yo2gmc).

The planet is warming; that is NOT in dispute by any scientist or well-versed politician. The controversy is WHY, not the WEATHER… er, WHETHER…hehe.

Just last the other week we have the following from the International Journal of Climatology (http://tinyurl.com/3aa29b):

“The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, does not show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming. The inescapable conclusion is that the human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make only a negligible contribution to climate warming," said lead author David H. Douglass.

Co-author John Christy said: “Satellite data and independent balloon data agree that atmospheric warming trends do not exceed those of the surface. Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric trend values be 2-3 times greater. We have good reason, therefore, to believe that current climate models greatly overestimate the effects of greenhouse gases. Satellite observations suggest that GH models ignore negative feedbacks, produced by clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of carbon dioxide.”

Co-author S. Fred Singer said: “The current warming trend is simply part of a natural cycle of climate warming and cooling that has been seen in ice cores, deep-sea sediments, stalagmites, etc., and published in hundreds of papers in peer-reviewed journals. The mechanism for producing such cyclical climate changes is still under discussion; but they are most likely caused by variations in the solar wind and associated magnetic fields that affect the flux of cosmic rays incident on the earth’s atmosphere. In turn, such cosmic rays are believed to influence cloudiness and thereby control the amount of sunlight reaching the earth’s surface and thus the climate. Our research demonstrates that the ongoing rise of atmospheric CO2 has only a minor influence on climate change. We must conclude, therefore, that attempts to control CO2 emissions are ineffective and pointless – but very costly."

Last week we have "Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations :Dec. 13, 2007,Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong direction"(http://tinyurl.com/yrgwxy).

“Recent observations of phenomena such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise
and the migration of temperature-sensitive species are not evidence for
abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has been shown to lie
outside the bounds of known natural variability.”

“The current UN focus on "fighting climate change," as illustrated in the
Nov. 27 UN Development Programme's Human Development Report, is distracting
governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable natural climate
changes, whatever forms they may take. National and international planning
for such changes is needed, with a focus on helping our most vulnerable
citizens adapt to conditions that lie ahead. Attempts to prevent global
climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic
misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity's real and
pressing problems.”

For those of you who have viewed Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient truth” you should also be required to watch the “Great Global Warming Swindle” (http://tinyurl.com/2k8ara). Recent British Legislature requires both be shown side by side, if at all, in British classrooms. Be forewarned, however, because both have very strong elements of propaganda.

In my opinion, the agenda behind the politicization of this issue pertains to the UN’s proposed carbon tax. One of the STATED agendas of globalization centers on the paternalistic control and dissemination of all global resources. Somewhere between now and the realization of human Utopia, resources will come under centralized control. But I don’t think that those pushing this agenda at this time have altruism at heart anymore than they had the interests of the average American Joe at heart with the creation and implementation of NAFTA.

Whether it be private or public granting agencies, University professorships and tenure tracks, or the journalistic peer-review publication process, money drives science…. books have been written on these social and political control points. Money driving science is as fundamental a concept to scientists as the concept that “traders trade markets” is to the day trader. I can site many recent and ongoing instances where Multi-Billion-dollar interests in pharmaceutical companies bully, crush, or kill good science in order to preserve their markets… and this sacrifices millions of lives to bad medical practice. There is a lot of money and power at stake in the centralization of resources and the implementation of an international carbon tax, and I don’t think those pushing this agenda care a wit about good science.

Where is the “truth” regarding global warming then? It has been a closely held secret of NASA for sometime now that the ENTIRE SOLAR SYSTEM is heating up. Mars, Pluto, Saturn, Neptune, etc, and all attendant moons also. Everywhere we have looked, we see the same pattern of planetary warming. Here is a small sample:

Pluto: http://tinyurl.com/lo43x
Jupiter: http://tinyurl.com/gtzbw
Mars: http://tinyurl.com/2caqeo
Triton: http://tinyurl.com/2c3jlf
Sun: http://tinyurl.com/37t6bl
Sun: http://tinyurl.com/3vqhj

Now isn’t that an inconvenient truth? Why the secret? Because accepted physics models cannot account for all this extra energy. It isn,t coming from our Sun, and it isn’t coming from the planets themselves, at least to the point that current accepted models can extrapolate. This means that there is an alternative, as yet undefined source of plentiful planet-changing energy. This also strongly suggests that our science, at worst is flawed at a fundamental level and, at best, is incomplete. ( http://tinyurl.com/5pz9w )

I strongly encourage you to dig deeper regarding these issues.

Is this already the week between Christmas and New Years? Trading seems so slow out there and very directionless. It's giving a push to the downside now but it seems as if neither buyers or sellers have much conviction.

HRB is worth half of 16.50. After Expiration I'll bet we see some downward action in it.

Rob.

Okay, I have to don my tin foil hat for a moment.....

So Al Gore is behind a push to establish UN carbon taxes?

Of course any tin foil conspiracy wouldn't be complete without the arch villains at the all knowing, all seeing scientific conspiracy known as the UN...those evil European pinko bastards!

Be careful, they want to you to take vacations, work less and have healthcare! All horrible punishments to our Protestant sensibilities!

And a tripling of CO2 is perfectly healthy, perfectly normal?

And the resultant science on soil and plant reactions to this carbon is then total bunk too?

Wow! All those conspiracists unknowingly plunging us into UN hell!!!

Why, that's amazing! BTW, I have a guess at the secret source of all that hot air.....

Kaimu...

Buying myself, my neice, and my nephew xmas gifts this year..

ECU for all...Also added some NOT and wishing WGW would fall a little more...

Anyone looking to send their loved ones flowers can't go wrong with Kaimu's flowers...

Can't beat the prices direct from Hawaii and they are just beautiful..I sent an Orchid to my wife back in September...Thanks Kaimu...The Orchid was a huge hit...

isaiah- glad to see you're sidelined (at least i think you are)...this market action no doubt has most traders outfoxed- waiting for a better set-up...if it comes today, most likely in the last hour...

TimG -

You are probably too late for this year's tax selling bonanza. Barring unforeseen drops (ala SLM), any player of size who has not optimized his/her tax bill needs be removed from management duties asap. You may still have a shot at shorting this year hot stocks (eg. top 10 S&P 500 stocks) close to year-end (last 2-3 days) when the last mark-up occurs.

BTW, the 1995 GM selling was in response to Kerkorian's dumping 12 million shares for his own tax bill (he bought back late January if I recall).

JML

Buying an initial position in Bank of America (BAC) today. May be early, but want to start building a position in solid banks as believe they will lead out of this mess. Also, Buffet is buying (and I believe he would have done enough analysis to feel comfortable with their mortgage position), yield is over 6%, stock at lowest point in almost 5 years. If you wait for the full turn to become evident, it's often too late.

Golfer: shorting vs. options

I use options considerably for short-term trading set-ups, particularly on US issues where there generally is more volume and smaller bid-ask spreads than on Canadian. I do not consider myself a professional, and tend to use longer-dated, deeper in the money options than the pros. Am currently short the following US issues with puts: AXL, CMI, HRB, RATE, XHB. Am short the XIU.TO index with puts as a hedge against some long positions.

I have been re-thinking my options trading and will likely scale it back, substituting some of the "ultra bear" or "ultra bull" funds with 2x movement on the underlying. For instance, the Horizons Beta Pro ETF series in Canada (HGD, HED, HGD) can be used to short the general market, or the energy, or gold sectors respectively, and there are several similar US ETFs as mentioned by contributors to this site.

The ETFs offer less slippage through bid/ask spreads and don't suffer from the time premium decay inherent to options. However, options may be the best solution for capturing significant gains on individual equity movements, so I see applications for both.

If I had to chose just one, I would go with "ultra" ETFs on indexes or sectors to avoid single stock risk. IMHO we are likely to continue with significant price movements in all time frames, and the "ultra" ETFs will provide leveraged returns.

Remember, I am not a pro, and this is just one opinion. Others may have more insight.

2nd....absolutely...about 50/50 no direction.

Feels negative but here we are slightly green.

BTW, apologies....CO2 levels were 220 ppm for the ten thousand years preceeding the industrial revolution. Today they are 375 ppm. In 2100 they are projected to be 550 ppm.

The technology to measure CO2 is common and available to anybody.

These levels are changing the way our soil works as PROVEN by Texas A&M and Washington State University in actual side by side results in tunnels growing native plants containing each of these levels. The experiments also showed that there is negligible reduction of CO2 by planting more plants and trees because of the limitation of other elements such as nitrogen.

Craig/2nd

As far as direction, I think we are seeing a lot of mean reversion going on going into options expiration friday. Almost everything I own is reverting towards the average of its closing prices from 11/23-12/18.

BTW...average closing price for SPY from 11/23-12/18 is 147.3256

mean reversion in progress

Why does the "tape" see MS selling some of the company to China as good news? Doesn't this "deal" dilute the shares? Am I missing something here?

I definitely can't daytrade this market. Maybe someday but for now it's too quick and hard to predict.

Rob

Wasn't Paulson telling everyone there was no problem?

Three analysts at Goldman Sachs just took the prize for the most profitable trade in history. In the wake of Goldman’s earnings statement yesterday, we’ve come to learn that a trio of traders -- none over 40 years old -- were all but single-handedly responsible for keeping Goldman’s head above water in 2007.

Long story short, the three shorted the subprime market like no other market has been shorted before… to the tune of over $4 billion in profits. Proceeds from the trade were wiped out thanks to bad bets elsewhere in the firm, but this gamble will still go down as the most successful of all time (ousting George Soros’ $1.1 billion gains from shorting the pound in 1992).

And good deeds don’t seem to go unnoticed at Goldman Sachs… each of the three men are reportedly getting $10 million bonuses this Christmas.

SLW - Out @ 14.28 (with small win, due to added purchases on pullbacks earlier in the day). 10-minute EMA(25) back below SMA(50). Tiresome sideways action with no follow-through.

"Cash is a position too."

Jfs....

Is there a link to that GS story?

sru
watch this one , remeber Bill mention it quite a while ago , then Seymour Schulich filed notice that he owned a few shares, ( I recall 30 million) for our American friends Seymour is of Franco Nevada fame, the company that just got spun off from Newmount, which had bought them out for over a billion when Schulich and Lassonde ran it up from a penny stock. Then two years ago one of his pet projects Blackrock got taken out at $24 by Shell a share from a penny stock in about 7 years . I think this qualifies as smart money :)

bb - BAC (now 41.73) hit a low of 32.13 on 10 Mar 2003, so not exactly "at lowest point in almost 5 years."

Billy,

Just came from a forecast stream I get from Agora Financial. Sorry, no link was attached.

re Carbon and Global warming

What is not a question is that:
A) the planet is warming
B) there is drastically more atmospheric carbon than at any time in human history

The question is one of causality and by no means is it a certainty that A=>B.

Let me say that I am a really, really green-oriented person, a fan of the environmental movement and reducing my energy use and personal damage to our spaceship Earth.

I just have not been convinced that humans have a greater impact on our climate than the Sun.

In earlier eras (both pre-and post-human advent), high levels of atmospheric carbon have coincided with periods of LOWER than "normal" mean temperatures and periods if higher than mean temp's.

As MtnGtnx alluded, the Sun goes through cycles of increasing and decreasing intensity and temperature. This impacts the atmospheric and surface temp's of all the planets - including Earth.
(below is a link to a Google search on solar cycles)
http://tinyurl.com/2dyleq

Mars for instance has increased in temp at almost the exact same rate as the earth over the past 30ish years. Last I looked (and I'll check again tonight since it is so close!) there are no cars or electric plants on the surface of Mars!!

Again, I don't argue that human activity/polution/energy use are not ecological disasters in many ways. I just don't think our carbon output is the biggest reason the planet is warming up.

2nd

you're right...I've been waiting on the sidelines..
Looks like a very small trading range on QID today

Aucourant

Mongolia has a "Uranium Working Group" reviewing the sector. Khan's deposit is considered "strategic," which gives the gov the right to participate up to 50% (I believe they already have a 21% interest). This isn't an outright expropriation, but it isn't clear on what terms Khan would be compensated (cash, reduced taxes etc). So that concern and tax loss selling has the stock at $1.25. On a positive note, the new PM Bayar has brought in an interesting new cabinet and seems to be serious about getting an IA done with Ivanhoe ASAP. We'll have to see what he can get done with a spring election looming.

RE: GLOBAL WARMING

I believe I read an article that Al Gore is involved in a company which will profit from selling carbon credits. As fear of terror has been perpetrated by the military industrial complex, a fear of carbon is being perpetrated
by Gore and the UN group. As they were awarded Nobel prizes a couple of weeks ago, it appears their plan is working well.

MtnGtx.....thanks for all the good links to the issue. Over 500 of the worlds top scientists are skeptical of carbon as the cause of global warming. If it's true the whole solar system is heating, that would certainly discredit the current popular beliefs.

"a fear of carbon is being perpetrated
by Gore and the UN group"

Bull shit.

Dear Bill and Company,

Well, I'm back on my feet again, at the westport library posting. This morning I caught a REAL nice ride on Novagold (NG) From the mid 6's up into the low 7's. It probably will work higher but I am now unwilling to take this poition home overnight until a clear direction can be established. And that is basically the subject of my post today. As an investor, the next 3-6 months outlook is extremely important to discern and to be cognizant of. But for a trader, the info is basically useless.

A common source of confusion that I read about in this forum involves trying to predict the future. And my message is, for traders at least, STOP TRYING! It is useless and actually counterproductive to muse about where the broad averages will be next June. It's just not germain to our collective activity. What we as traders should be interested in is the near term. The next hour-to day-up to about a week from now is all that should really inform our activities. My advice is, trade prices, like Bill says. What he doesn't explicitly say is, it's the prices that are right in front of your eyes, cowboy. Not what prices may be like come February.

Is it easier to know where you will be this afternoon at 4:30 or where you will be two Tuesdays from now? Of course the near term is far more predictable than the farther-away timeframe. this is interesting because so many Wall Streeters hide behind their 6 month outlook, or their 8 month outlook, and lie that the long term is more predicatable than the near term. Bullsfeathers! Trade prices, but it's the prices that are flashing in front of your eyes. The best prop traders work in a very near time-frame, even a micro one. Take care of the present, and the future will take care of itself.

PS: My friend Korvus is helping me try to sort out my Typekey issues, and thanks Jeff. In the meantime, my posting will be very limited. Also, I do think PAL N.A. (Palladium) could be getting ready to move higher, I have a tiny position that is a take-home position trade, just for kicks.

Old Goat: "You are solely responsible for your trades, investments and decisions."

Couldn't agree more on the above. I'd like to look at SLW for the long-term. Thanks for the update.

Tax cuts cancelled out by carbon trading...

“At the time the tax relief would take effect, in early 2009, consumers could expect an 8% increase in the price of petrol and a 14% increase in the price of diesel, as a result of the carbon trading scheme, according to the government’s own calculations” (page 29 Explanatory Note Climate Change (Emissions Trading and Renewable Preference Bill).

http://tinyurl.com/2bgpym

Bill,
Have you been following Teck Cominco at all lately? You mentioned recently that there could have been some front running going on ahead of the Galore creek news because the stock was underperforming the sector by a wide margin. Lately there has been quite a bit of talk about the company being in play but all the while the stock is plummeting and drastically underperforming it's peers. I'd be interested to hear your take on the present situation.
Thanks,
YYZ

There is a LOT of misinformation being spread about global warming. One of the main goals of this misinformation is to confuse the general public about the source of global warming. The main culprit held out as an alternative to carbon induced warming is solar forcing. However, there is zero evidence that the observed warming is caused by increase in solar activity. All of the available evidence points to carbon forcing and anthropogenic sources of warming. Claiming that scientists only support global warming "because of the money" is ridiculous. If someone had some kind of earth shattering new idea or theory and had evidence to back it up they'd be swimming in grant money. Denialists of all stripes make the same claims in regards to their pet conspiracies. The AIDS denialists say that the medical establishment is covering up the truth so they can make money on selling cures, the creationists say that scientists only support evolution in order to get grant money, etc. It's so silly you'd think it was dreamed up by a 5 year old. Unfortunately, it's also effective. If people see this nonsense first or don't bother checking into the claims that are made, they fall for it.

If you wish to get into the actual science of global warming I would suggest going to www.realclimate.org. It's a website run and operated by actual climate scientists. They also have information on all the various climate change denier's arguments.

Honestly, the people here are the smartest.

So I ask, who has profitted more, manipulated governments and wars, polluted the environment, killed more people, committed more unspeakable harms against this planet than those who profit from the products that produce global warming?

And who profits most from the disinformation disseminated by their paid dupes?

The 500 "top scientists" are paid dupes of the oil industry as has been documented several times.

OK Old Goat, BAC hasn't been this low in 3.5 years and it was higher than this in July, 2003 (4.5 years ago).

My other thought is that I wouldn't mind if the stock did go lower as I just purchase a 20% position today. Just as long as it was going lower for generic market reasons and not some sort of really bad news about the company. If it looks like they have made some major business errors, I would sell and take my (hopefully) small loss here.

I kind of like Jim Puplava's approach that if you work on the peak oil problem, which is more immediate than global warming, you will also be solving the latter problem.

ISRG

Does anyone have any comments regarding ISRG? It landed on my radar this week but I know very little fundamentally about it. The stock has been in a massive bull market.

The Great Global Warming Swindle has been discredited to a large extent. See wikipedia for a long synopsis:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle#Related_programmes_and_films

A previous documentary by the same person "was charged by the Independent Television Commission of the UK for misrepresenting and distorting the views of interviewees by selective editing."

I've seen the film and I am open to the opposing viewpoint, but after reading the critique I am not moved by the films arguments as they are disingenuous. The fact that the documentary makers cut off several charts at 1980 data and mislabeled the date axis accordingly is discrediting. For instance, the solar cycle is offered as an explanation for the recent warming. However, the data is only given until 1980 but appears to be up until 2000. After 1987, the data does not support the argument as sunspot activity declined as warming increased. Please read the critique for more details.

The news of warming on other planets linked by MtnGtx is intriguing.

Just for the record that website(www.enterprisemission.com) is operated by Richard Hoagland. He's a well known wack-a-loon. Some of his various claims are: that the face on Mars is real and part of an ancient alien city, that NASA used the mars rover to destroy martian fossils to cover up life on mars, that the martians escaped some kind of disaster on Mars by fleeing to earth and this is where humans came from, that he invented a new form of physics he calls "hyperdimensional physics", that there used to be aliens on the moon too in large domed cities and of course Nasa is hiding this too, that Nasa MURDERED the Apollo 1 astronauts to keep them quiet, that the NSA, Nasa, FBI and most other governemnt agencies are all linked to Freemasonry, etc, etc. The man is a walking advertisement for
anti-psychotic drugs.

Craig,

Did you know that several of the "scientists" who now oppose global warming were also employed by the tobacco industry back during the lawsuits of the 90s? Back then they were paid to stand up in front of congress and swear that tobacco was harmless. Today they are paid to stand up in front of congress and swear that global warming either isn't real, or if it is real it's not being caused by their clients.

That kind of shoots down "global warming is all about the money" nonsense. It's clearly more lucrative to deny science then it is to actually DO science. ;-)

http://tinyurl.com/2btsjk
Depressing article on Bloomberg about the prison system in Brazil. What are they doing with all that stock market money from the last few years?

ORCL up 6% afterhours on strong earnings. We may see a tech rally tomorrow. BSC earnings before the open will set the tone for the financial sector. Right now BSC is near a 52 week low.

Rob.

Bill,

Re: Ron Paul and Abolishment of IRS;

His status quo-altering platform is extraordinary. I'm drawn to portions of it, but he would be more successful and appealing if he ran as an independent. He ran as a Libertarian before. Think of Ross Perot and Ralph Nader - not presidential material, but they offered a few good proposals. They ran as independents and played pure politics. In the general election, they siphoned votes from the two party-ocracy or whatever Kaimu aptly called it.

Stu

RE: Global Warming

Reenzo: There is a great video on YouTube called "Scam of the Great Global Warming Swindle", where a professor of physics goes through all arguments of the "Great Global Warming Swindle" and shows all of them to be wrong (including pointing out how they manipulated the solar activity data). The part I liked the most was his explanation of how the Earth temperature and CO2 are tightly interwoven in a positive feedback system, so that when the temperature rises, the ocean releases CO2, and vice versa. Therefore, it is possible to have periods in history when temperature was leading CO2, as opposed to the much more obvious connection of CO2 leading the temperature (through the greenhouse effect). However, there are also negative feedbacks in this system due to other causes (without them, we all would have baked or frozen a long time ago), which kept the Earth in some kind of an equilibrium until the industrial revolution. Since then, the humans took one critical component of Earth’s geosystem (CO2) and shot it through the roof. This will have a huge impact on the whole system, and we are starting to see it right now. If the solar system is in fact warming up for some other reason, this will only make the matters worse, but it in no way diminishes the fact that the artificial increase in CO2 will have a tremendous impact on the Earth’s climate.

Zenob,
Which of the scientists have played the dual roles you have described.

TIA

BMD- unbelievable->day 6...[moving ultra-shorts back to the regular watch list->BMD now a stand-alone entry on the WTF list]...notice volume of 172,400 in the last 5 minutes of trading (afraid to ask)->the only company i know where every significant round of insider buying is followed by steep drops in share price->incompetent is not the word here, maybe it's run by a group of dedicated masochists who enjoy living in NE Albera (apologies to proudPapa)...;)

One of my favourite TV shows is Boston Legal. Last night, much of the banter concerned subprime mortgages and global warming. I won't recommend stocks but, I will recommend that you see Boston Legal "Green Christmas". Disclosure: I am not paid for touting TV shows.

Remember in the old days when bumper stickers and t-shirts shouted, "Save The Whales"?
They were followed by "Stop Global Warming".

Latest one seen: "Stop Plate Tectonics!"

A number of speculative Canadian miners, most of which have been discussed here, have reached my automatic trigger alerts. This is not an indication to buy, simply that they are at a level that I once considered a must buy.

AMU 0.24
BMK 0.46
CNU 0.23
LAM 5.22 (staying away from this due to new Aus. gov.)
MOR 0.14
NOT 3.95
PMV 0.24
SGR 1.27
WHY 0.215
YRI 11.94

Perhaps the excessive drop in these prices is due to tax loss selling, perhaps not. In any case, I have been in those stocks, they are now at much more attractive levels.

Any comments on the above are welcome.

I usually just read and absorb stuff here about trading and investing, but I do love a good civil debate! Although in this conversation I hate to take a stance that is usually taken as in favor of the current government's policies (NOT, NO WAY, BLECH!)

To clarify my earlier post a bit further, I was not referring to sunspot activity when I mentioned intensity. I was referring to actual observed temperature of the Sun's output.

I really do not disagree that the increased levels of CO2 must have an impact on the warming of the atmosphere. I just have not been convinced that it is either the main reason, or even a major reason for the current increases we are seeing at this time. My point is that the climate is SO complex and SO big, that we simply do not know with certainty WHY it is getting hotter.

I'm not going to point at evidence used to argue this point, because both sides of the political/scientific debate are guilty of fudging their numbers. To me that is a clear indication of the politicization of the debate - which is the real problem in my eyes.

My real concern is that with everyone arguing about the cause, no one seems to be doing anything about the inevitable consequences. Ok, let's say CO2 is the main culprit. It took our global economy 200+ years to get us where we are today, with the geometric expansion of global carbon output in the last 40 years accounting for most of it.

The best projections I have read (Nat'l Geo, The Economist, Sci Am, "stabilization wedges", etc) put the problem at another 50 to 100+ years of increasing output (with slower acceleration of increase) before we even begin to put a dent in our net impact. If that is the case, I had better get my family out of Florida, because the global temp will be at Polar Ice-Cap melting levels!

What if, what if, Carbon really is not the problem and instead of concentrating on learning how to deal with rising oceans, growing deserts, plankton (by far the biggest % of biomass on the planet) mass die-offs and thus the ability of ocean organisms to generate oxygen....ack that is the real doomsday scenario.

One last point. The concentration on CO2 emissions also allows the Corporate Talking Heads and Politico nay-sayers to lump other environmental issues into all their other anti-global warming rhetoric. Whilst everyone argues over carbon they ignore our polluted streams and ground water, dwindling bio-diversity, deforestation, and so on.

Even worse, by questioning the validity of climate science, they are able to call into question the validity of all environmental science.

Not good.

Jaketh,

One of the first ones to come to mind is Steven Milloy. He got his start as a professional denier when Phillip Morris created the laughably named Advancement of Sound Science Coalition. Milloy went from that to having his own all purpose denier website aptly called junkscience.com. There are at least 3 scientists that did testify to congress that tobacco was harmless who now pimp out their Phd's to Exxon. I just can't think of their dang names at the moment.

Here are a list of the various organizations and individuals active in the climate change denier world:

http://exxonsecrets.org/wiki/index.php/Deniers

Anytime you see a "scientist" claiming that global warming is a hoax, run his name through sourcewatch and see who's paying him
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=SourceWatch

I shook hands with Ron Paul this evening and mentioned this website to his assistant. He struck me as a very decent human being, first and foremost.

Jock, SiO2, Coleridge, thanks for the feedback on KRI. I noticed today that the MACD histogram shows divergence from the daily price action, something Alec Elder says to watch for as a buy signal.

SiO2 wrote:
'Perhaps the excessive drop in these prices is due to tax loss selling, perhaps not. In any case, I have been in those stocks, they are now at much more attractive levels.'

I agree, these levels are an excellent entry point into these miners. As a Canadian investor approaching year-end I'm interested in the tax advantages of flow-through shares from some of these junior miners, but I can't seem to locate any flow-through offerings. Does anyone have any experience with flow-throughs ?

SiO2: "Perhaps the excessive drop in these prices is due to tax loss selling, perhaps not."

To misquote Shakespeare, "To hold, or not to hold, that is the question. Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous downdrafts, or to sell ...". In January we should see how much of the sell-off in juniors is tax-related, and how much is general market related.

I hold two on your list: SGR.V (basis 1.36), and NOT.V (basis 4.13). Got a fill on NOT 6 minutes before closing today @ 3.92, the daily low. I may get it cheaper tomorrow.

Had an interesting day trade yesterday, due to what probably was tax loss selling. Someone dumped a whole whack of SLV.V, a thin trader. I scooped some between .79 and .56, then sold off about 2/3 when the price rebounded. That trade made my weekly target for trading income. Also made about half a week's target income day-trading mini-DOW futures. It was a "windshield" day: (some days you're the windshield, some days you're the bug).

Good luck to all in these choppy markets. I'm learning much from Bill and the contributors to this site.

Zenob,

Thanks for the leads...will be very useful.

What allows them to lump everything together is the fact that they ARE the media and so aren't even bought and paid for...except the talking heads like Kudlow.

The debate about what is important in OUR Presidential elections or any sizeable public debate is dictated to us by the national media, again owned by none other than those who benefit by keeping us consuming, fearful of losing our employment, check mailing dingalings. With few exceptions we are spoon fed the debates, the questions are controlled, the answers are scripted sound bites.

After lies about going to war for oil (like that is something we would forget) our antagonism of Central and South American socialist oil producers, and our worldwide conflicts all revolving around oil, how is it that there are still people that fall for the bullshit?
We Americans are nothing if not gullible.

But that's why places like this blog exist where we know to follow the money.

Look, doubters, it's simple. Almost too simple. Just follow the money.
Clue: The money is not leading to Al Gore or UN. Even if true it would be pocket change to one oil lobbyist and couch dust to a Saudi Prince shaking hands with GW or ordering our VP to come to the Kingdom to answer to him.

Naw, everything is absolutely above board.
You know we the people are in control when Saudi Princes pull the strings and our oil wars are financed by China.

Re BMD-

"Alberta orders Suncor to cut oil sands emissions
Reuters
December 18, 2007 at 6:31 PM EST

CALGARY — — The Alberta government said Tuesday it ordered Suncor Energy Inc. [SU-T]to come up with a plan to cut emissions of deadly hydrogen sulfide at its oil sands operations after several reports of high concentrations this year.

Suncor, which runs Canada's second-largest oil sands development, said it will comply with the Environmental Protection Order and expects no impact on production levels as it takes steps to fix the problems.

The Environment Ministry said the company must audit incidents in 2007 when ground-level concentrations of the gas exceeded acceptable levels and develop a monitoring plan to identify sources of hydrogen sulfide by Jan. 14.

Then, Suncor must submit a modeling plan by Feb. 7 detailing likely buildups of the substance on and off the plant site and a "worst-case consequence analysis" for those locations, the ministry said in a statement.

The company attributed the problems to faulty emission control gear and increased releases from tailings ponds at the northern Alberta oil sands mining and synthetic crude processing site, which has output capacity of about 260,000 barrels a day.

Suncor said it is upgrading emission control equipment and addressing the tailings issue. It is also introducing processing changes and starting a more comprehensive air monitoring program, it said. The gas, which has the odour of rotten eggs, can kill if inhaled in high enough concentrations.

In October, Suncor said it was stalling production growth at its Firebag thermal oil sands project while it complies with a government order to cut emissions at that site.

The ministry said Suncor must also submit monthly reports saying what steps it is taking to comply with the Environmental Protection Order."

[we know BMD has one solution to the problem: quicklime can be used for flue gas desulfurization to purify air emissions]

SiO2,
I hold too much BMK, WHY and CNU. I'm underwater on all three. WHY says they are averaging 25% magnesium. CNU project activity is progressing nicely. BMK traded up to 1.35 when news came out that Rob McEwen and friends bought a bundle of BMK at 40 cents. BMK is my favourite McFauld's Lake play in terms of potential upside. I believe that all three stocks could be ten-baggers as drilling results come in and market sentiment changes. I've held MOR and PMV in the past and was relieved to get out with profits. They're not my cuppa tea. Kaimu likes them.

Grr, I need an edit command so I don't sound illiterate. That should be "Here is a list" not "Here are a list". *sigh*

Jaketh,

Fred Singer is another one you can look at. He's been involved in just about ALL areas of science denial: tobacco, CFC ozone depletion, UV rays and skin cancer, global warming. He's basically a Rent-a-PhD. I don't THINK he was one of the ones involved in the tobacco suit though but I'm not positive.

On the energy topic, I've stumbled across a company called Nanosolar. They produce solar cells and if their claims are real, they've managed to refine their solar cell production techniques down(making them for less $$$) while at the same time increasing current output from their solar cells by 5-10 times that of current cells. I was wondering if they were employing the new solar technology of building cells with nano tubes(greatly increases the solar/voltaic efficiency of the cell) but I couldn't find any mention of it on their website. Right now they are still a private company but if their claims are legit they might be a company to keep an eye on.

I don't know about the rest of you guys, but I'd prefer it if we got serious about finding viable sources of energy that 1. aren't going to run out on us and 2. we didn't have to kiss the asses of dictators to get. If we could achieve energy independence, let the middle east keep it's black goo.

i too loved boston legal. as alan shore stated, what are the banks going to do with all those unsold homes that they foreclosed on, that they are no longer gettin any mortgage payments, and that no one now wants to buy at any price.... just a great show... always current with what is going on.

Craig,

After checking out MtnGntx' sources, I find it hard to believe that the this journal (IJC) and its editors would associate themselves with foolishness. Nothing in this realm of science is either as simple or as settled as you insist. Call me a skeptic (guilty) but I am most suspicious when partisans call for an end to the research because "we already know the truth." I am especially skeptical when the repository of that truth is Al Gore, fresh off his conquest of the cyber world. Let the research continue, and let's listen, IMO.

SiO2,

I have kept an eye on BMK.V. They did their $10mn financing with IBK in October at $.40 with ann all-star cast of participants. I am looking to buy at/under $.40 if possible, weary of market conditions for juniors but I think good opportunities are abundant and may be so for awhile longer.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/071026/200710260421407001.html?.v=1

"The Company is very pleased to announce that Sheldon Inwentash - Chairman & CEO, Pinetree Capital Ltd., Robert McEwen - Chairman & CEO, US Gold Corporation, Pierre Lassonde - Chairman, Franco-Nevada Corporation, and Randall Oliphant - Chairman, Western Gold Fields Inc. have agreed to purchase a substantial portion of the Units available in this Offering."

SiO2,

I have kept an eye on BMK.V. They did their $10mn financing with IBK in October at $.40 with ann all-star cast of participants. I am looking to buy at/under $.40 if possible, weary of market conditions for juniors but I think good opportunities are abundant and may be so for awhile longer.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ccn/071026/200710260421407001.html?.v=1

"The Company is very pleased to announce that Sheldon Inwentash - Chairman & CEO, Pinetree Capital Ltd., Robert McEwen - Chairman & CEO, US Gold Corporation, Pierre Lassonde - Chairman, Franco-Nevada Corporation, and Randall Oliphant - Chairman, Western Gold Fields Inc. have agreed to purchase a substantial portion of the Units available in this Offering."

Zenob,

There are kooks all over the place....have to sift them out. There are serious scientists at work, too. By "serious scientist" I expressly mean one whose conclusions are not purchased in advance and whose work is subjected to peer review by others of the same ilk.

As to alternative energy companys, JASO is moving out this week. May be worth a look.

Regards,

Boston Legal....I'm not sure which I love more, the social commentary, Candice Bergin (anyone ever seen "The Wind and the Lion"? Great movie!), or the fact that William Shatner has absolutely, not one ounce - sorry, one ATOM - of shame in his body!!

He just had a show on The History Channel or Science Channel or something called, "How William Shatner Changed the World" frikkin priceless!

Reenzo,

Saw Shatner graciously take a hit from Betty White concerning his corpulence: "Gee Bill, we knew you were busy trying to conquer the universe, but we didn't know you were going to swallow it whole!"

Thank you very much to all for the comments on the miners. Some of these prices are very attractive for the long term.

BTW, I reentered into a position on MOR today, very low price and seems to be stabilizing. It's almost at the levels that EMR was (.11). EMR is back up to .19, although EMR has some issues in CA.

BB/Pink Sheet stock ?,
I thought that the rules to be on the AMEX or the Nasdaq was that the stock had to maintain a price above 2.00 usd. Maybe there is a capitalization price that maintains them on these stock exchanges. If so what is it? BMD, KRY, etc.

Everything Turn, Turn, Turn !!!

One on One with Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

SUSIE GHARIB: Joining us now for more analysis on that big investment today between China and Morgan Stanley, Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International. Hi, Bob.

ROBERT HORMATS, VICE CHMN., GOLDMAN SACHS INTERNATIONAL: Hi, Susie, how are you?

GHARIB: Well, besides the news about Morgan Stanley, in recent times, we've seen other sovereign funds investing in Citigroup, in Bear Stearns, in UBS. Is this trend a good development or is it cause for concern?

HORMATS: I don't think it's cause for concern. I think it is just realistic in the current environment that a country that needs capital and the U.S. is indeed a very capital short country because we have a very low savings rate, we have to get it from somewhere. And the Chinese and the Middle East sovereign wealth funds and others have a lot of cash. The savings rates in those countries are very high and those funds are willing and, in fact, eager to invest in American firms of various sorts because they see that the dollar has gone down. They see that the stock values of many of them have gone down. They see these as good opportunities.

GHARIB: Now do you expect that these sovereign funds will be passive investors in companies like Citi and Morgan Stanley or will they take a more active role in determining the corporate direction and the strategies of these firms?

HORMATS: Traditionally they have avoided playing a very active role in the management of these firms. They look at this for the most part over the last several decades and we have a lot of experience with the way these funds work. They look at these kinds of things almost exclusively as financial investments, as ways to earn a profit. Certainly those countries that have large foreign exchange reserves are establishing these funds largely because they want a higher rate of return than they would get on treasury bills. So this is the kind of thing they would invest in.

GHARIB: Bob, can you just say something again, because I lost your audio for a moment.

HORMATS: Can you hear me?

GHARIB: Yes, I hear you now, OK, great. Let me follow up on what you were saying about the Treasury market. To the extent that these funds are investing in American companies and less in terms of Treasuries, what are the implications for the Treasury market?

HORMATS: Well, I think in the near term probably not much because the Fed is going to continue to create liquidity and that has helped to keep interest rates down. But if the market tightens up a little bit and over the median term if they decide to shift money out of fixed income assets and out of Treasuries into equities, it is positive in a long run for equities and negative for Treasuries but not in the short-term because people want Treasuries largely because of the insecurity of the overall investment environment.

GHARIB: For individual investors who may own Morgan Stanley stock or Citi stock or UBS stock and now have these stakes from the sovereign fund, is this a signal to buy more shares or a time to sell?

HORMATS: Well, it is hard for me to make judgments about individual companies. But I do think that you have to look at a lot of these funds as medium term investors. I don't think they are market-timers in the sense that we tend to use it in the U.S. I think they are looking at this as a medium term investment. What I assume is that they see these as good opportunities for returns as they would any kind of company they would buy into. And they probably see that this is a good prospect over the medium term. It is obviously hard to judge one bank against another, one investment versus another but I think in principle, that's the way they tend to look at these as medium term investments.

GHARIB: Real quickly, what kind of response do you think we are going to get from Washington lawmakers about this trend of international investment in American companies, if at all?

HORMATS: I think they ought to be happy about it, in large measure because this, as I said in the outset is a country that is very short on capital. We need to import $3 billion roughly every working day. A lot of American companies need capital. The big suppliers of capital, internationally now are some of these sovereign wealth funds. And to try to cut it all or to interfere with it would deprive American institutions of important amounts of capital. Obviously there may be issues from time to time with specific investments. But in principles they've got capital. They have a high savings rate. We have a low savings rate. We need capital. It is the way the world is today. And they have to come to grips with that, with that reality.

GHARIB: The $3 billion solution. Thank you very much, Bob.

HORMATS: Per day, per day.

GHARIB: Per day, my guest tonight, Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International.

http://tinyurl.com/2bzo9d

Speaking of the environment, anyone hear Trump's building a $1+ billion golf course in Scotland?

http://tinyurl.com/37g9oz

BMK.V- Billy Sundance

To me, BMK looks like a "falling knife" - tough to catch without bloody consequences!

No major support I see on the weekly chart till .28

Private buyers are getting in at less than .40 because of the (enviable) value in the warrants.

I think the first drill results from McFaulds will be in April. I wonder if the stock will dip before (or after) then ....

Any other views?

Jaketh,
No one has called for an end to research. No one can quote a credible source saying global warming research should stop, except for those opposed to the notion of global warming to begin with, which should certainly call their statments as much into question as Mr. Gores seem to be. Al Gore has never made any such statement. Again, follow the money.
That greedy Gore must be in it for the money, he donated the money he won for the Nobel prize.

That and it takes a frickin' tsunami of information to counter the money of the carbon producers. Can Al Gore use the U.S. military to secure the resources of other soveriegn nations?
NO, THAT is the power of carbon producers.

As all political advisors know, it takes seven positive truthful statements to counter one negative lie. How many lies can they tell with Exxon's backing? How about the backing of the U.S. Government?

The information I cited today came from the very latest edition of Washington State Magazine, the publication of the Washington State University, where I can assure you research on global warming, it's causes and myriad affects are ongoing.

This edition covers studies on the effects of past, present and future levels of carbon dioxide on plant growth and soil chemistry in joint research with Texas A&M University. These studies reveal problems and limitations with the idea of remedying increased CO2 levels with carbon sequestration using increased vegetation levels and with the replacement in biosystems with present levels of CO2 of bacteria which enable nitrogen fixation in soil with fungi which do not.

One of the problems with increased CO2 levels is NOT warming but the actual changing of how our soil works worldwide.

We are opening a Pandoras box of effects we are only now getting a small glimpse of. Warming and sea levels isn't the half of it.

You know, we grow our food (and Orchids) in soil.

No, the studies and research into causes and effects of global warming and all the possible solutions are very much ongoing.

Since this is my business (mainly my wifes now) and I've been doing this ag thing since the early 80's, I'm fully prepared to have as deep a discussion as desired on soil chemistry and CO2.
That and genetics are my curiosities in life besides capital markets.

Hi,

This morning the ECB has injected yet another 133 BN of overnight money.

UAU.

The mind boggles.

If, as and when the next shoe drops, the gates of hell will be wide open.

Please keep you value at risk low: never more than 10% your portfolio.

Meanwhile, beware that the market may even go up, but skating on very thin ice.

Even better: get out during the christmas season. You can get back next year.

Season's greetings.

GFI: Looking to retest 52 wk low and Nov. low of 13.31. Now 13.77

Waiting...no miner positions at present.
Would like it at or near lows as well as AUY and SLW.

Holding fire until PM's correct.

Good Morning! I appreciate the interjection of some science into your rant, as it civilizes the tone somewhat. You're obviously a serious and zealous hobbyist. My remark last night was carlessly worded: I should have said "end to discussion," as I was referring to the uncivil behaviour of many who cannot countenance contrary opinion. Certainly the issue is complex, as it has been throughout the ages of systematic glaciations. There is much to be learned. I thank you for your contribution to my own education.

Thanks Jaketh, Goodness knows I could use some civilization of tone!

Ho Ho Ho.

Here are your Cara 100 Ratings Changes:

Upgrade:

PBR - to Buy @ Citigroup

Target Prices Raised:

ORCL - $25 to $27 @ UBS
ORCL - $24 to $26 @ CIBC
ORCL - $24 to $25 @ Broadpoint Capital
ATVI - $27.50 to $33 @ Broadpoint Capital