THE BEAR'S LAIR
Where’s the juiciest bear food?
By Martin Hutchinson

Economy - 2008
Gold $1500

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IL19Dj02.html

Greetings.

Here is your Cara 100 Update:

Upgrade:

ADBE - to Buy @ Deutsche Securities

Downgrade:

ADBE - to Hold @ Kaufman Bros.

-----------------------------------------------

Is it any wonder that the first four letters of the word analyst spells A-N-A-L? :^)

Bull Hunter

LOL..........good one !

Mark Hulbert on present market volatility...

http://tinyurl.com/2x6nht

Golfer

Bad link my friend...

Can you repost...

http://tinyurl.com/37tc7j
CRAWFORD COMMITTEE'S PLAN: 'WE DON'T WANT TO BE INVOLVED'
TD breaks ranks on frozen ABCP
Refuses to join other big banks in supporting $30-billion restructuring if it means taking on additional risk

craig/isaiah- nice move on FXI-should open up 3%

Heard it on the radio the other day here in Toronto. An analyst speaking about the Crawford commitee plan to bail out ABCP:
"It's like putting lipstick on a pig"

Ron Paul is not perfect, I acknowledge that, and I believe he does want to cut the military as well.

I may be a one issue candidate but the main problem I see in the US is how current leadership continues to compromise our financial strength by loading us with debt and future promises to the citizens, essentially buying our votes. Like Ron said, we now owe over 60Trillion in future promises. I think that's a conservative estimate, I think we promised more like 100Trillion.

My understanding is that Ron Paul supports cutting all departments equally and , let's be realistic, congress will never pass most of the cuts so why worry.

I just think Americans are waking up to the fact that we can't keep spending our Grandchildren's money forever. We have to cut spending enough to run surplusses and use that money to pay down the current debt.

No one else out there is advocating a return to fiscal sanity. On the Democrat side we have all of them clamoring for the government taking over health-care. And on the Republican side they want government health care too as well as continuing the endless war in Iraq.

Government should be responsible with our money just like most of us are with our own money.

The religious part doesn't affect me. Right now the major media worships anti-religion and Bush is born-again religious who is against abortion. Did Bush pass sweeping changes to make everyone religious? It's a nonissue.

Just my opinion.

Rob.

2nd

I stumbled on to that one. I read Craig's post a few mins before closing and jumped on it.

C R A I G . . . . Thanks buddy for the FXI heads up yesterday! At last I see some green on my screen.

QID- dumping my entire position at 40.40->out of respect for bill's opening commentary...going to hang back and see what happens from here...(keeping the DUG for now)...

My pleasure! I'm out at 168.10.

Was short the SKF thinking the XLF would get a little uumph which it did for a few mins, then turned on me so I dumped out and bought it, so that's looking good now.

My dancing shoes are going to need new soles soon.

I danced a lttle too long with FXI.. out @167.54

This little short squeeze will not hold...We are headed down today...JMO.

Week effort by the BULLS...

HRB nearly bankrupt and up 4%
GS with record earnings once again and they're down!!

What gives?

I guess anything goes in a bear market.

They're still writing news stories out there saying the market is rising because og Goldman's earnings.

Confusing for sure.

Rob.

Still not a bad trade Isaiah!

Remember, sell your greed!

When that little guy on your shoulder says "hold it, it's going way higher and you will be RICH!", SELL!!!! Long China is a trade, not a hold!!!! At least right now...

From the morning WSJ online roundup:

International Herald Tribune: In an "unforeseen and unprecedented" shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top U.N. food and agriculture official warned. Food and Agriculture Organization chief Jacques Diouf said the changes create "a very serious risk that fewer people will be able to get food," particularly in the developing world. The agency's food price index rose by more than 40% this year, accelerating from last year's 9% climb.
******************

BusinessWeek: The investigation by securities regulators and federal prosecutors into this summer's collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in risky securities backed by subprime mortgages is heating up.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Attorney's office in Brooklyn are looking into an allegation that some Bear Stearns insiders associated with the funds may have been pulling their personal money out of the investment vehicles this spring when the market was in turmoil. The alleged redemptions occurred, sources say, during a time the funds' managers were urging other investors to stay put.

What’s that line from Casablanca? “I’m SHOCKED! SHOCKED!”

Free at last ...Free at last... 2nd & Craig..I'm free at last.

Finally in the green on DXD & QID.... woooow that was one loooooooooooong wait!

Gold Symmetrical Triangle update:

Gold found support at the uptrend line of triangle and the 50 dma. It is clearly trading within the pattern. Waiting for breakout either up or down.

basketguy,

Agreed. Hunch that the bulls are playing rope-a-dope, conserving their strength for a push in the later rounds at the end of the week.

Isaiah,

Great news, buddy. Once you have a good game plan, all you need is PATIENCE.
http://tinyurl.com/37sl2f

isaiah- couldn't be happier...cut your position sizes back to what works for you...

Please see the attached press release announcing that on December 13, 2007, Pinetree acquired ownership of convertible debentures convertible into 1,499,000 common shares of Sofame Technologies Inc. ("Sofame"). Pinetree and its joint actors now owns 16.7% of Sofame, calculated on a partially diluted basis.

"When that little guy on your shoulder says "hold it, it's going way higher and you will be RICH!", SELL!!!!"

Craig--you got that right. The only way I've found to trade is to go opposite my emotions. Kinda sucks that it has to be that way, but that's what I've learned. The really tough part is that at some point my "feelings" will be right, and I'll have to learn to spot that changeover. Reading Jesse Livermore has got me a little underconfidenced lately because I saw how many mistakes even he made.

Isaiah... Hulbert on volatility

Hope this one works...had trouble with the server posting this am

http://tinyurl.com/2mznqz

I saw it here a while back--does anyone remember what Bill said about when you give weight to MACD and when you give weight to RSI? Also, where would Stochastics fit in, in terms of weight to give it during trading versus the other two? Thanks, I'm trying to get grounded in some basics here.

Bill, I must say you have been very clear in your commentary the past week or so. Your in the zone and it's coming across as someone who is writing with a lot of conviction. Some of your best work all year coming in as of late.

Isaiah -- Glad you're free; now--have you put some stops in place to protect yourself? Think how much free-er you'd be now if you'd taken a small loss back then and waited for (& taken advantage of) a better entry?

The main thing you have to contend with when electing a president is the people he brings to office with him. Bush has appointed anti-science quacks at every turn. Whether it's global warming deniers at Nasa or fundamentalists in health care positions. These appointments have real world consequences. Global warming denial affects us all. The global AIDS epidemic is directly affected by misinformation on prophylactics and "absitenance only" education. We now have an office of "faith based initiatives" for crying out loud. That hardly makes it a non-issue. The simple fact is that if you elect someone to be president who has demonstrated that he's not competent on numerous issues, then you are going to have a lot of grief to contend with on down the road.

As such Ron Paul has set off several alarms with me. First, he has publicly stated that the separation between church and state is a "myth". Secondly, in his calls to slash government he always makes sure to mention that he would do away with the Department of Education. Aside from thinking that would be a huge mistake I also can't help but wonder at his motivations for singling it out. Most usually when you hear someone complaining about the DoE it's because they are a creationist and they are upset because the DoE won't let them teach creationism over real science. Third, he goes WAY over the top in his calls for smaller government. To hear him talk it sounds like he wants NO government rather then smaller government. I'm all for smaller more efficient government, but I tend to think we need a little more then just an army and a postal service. I could be wrong, but I think his over the top desire to slash government stems from his overriding desire to reduce taxes to as close to zero as he can get. The only way to do that is to reduce government spending to as close to zero as he can get also. I'm all for lower taxes and tax reform, but not to the point that I want to dismantle the infrastructure of my country to get it.

I still haven't decided who I'm going to vote for this time. To be honest I'm not thrilled by ANY of them. It simply feels like an exercise in futility. I think I'm going to end up having to just pick the LEAST bad one of the bunch. So far the republican choices are all either crazy or liars(except for maybe Thompson but I think he'd just sleep the whole 4 years) and the dem choices are all Washington insiders and/or spineless(see, there's a new use for stem cells, growing democrats spines). I imagine that's why Obama is doing so good, he doesn't have that "insider stink" on him yet.

Oh, and still holding FXP. lol

Just a thought on change....

When I was working I "had so much to do and so little time to do it."

Now that I am retired I "have so much to do but so little time to do it."

ALOHA !!

Okay ... Enough is enough already. When I first heard about the new "Homeland" Security I almost barfed because of the Nazi implications of Der Furher and his whole Fatherland ... Next came the ridiculous "PATRIOT ACT" ... I have come to realize that anything the US government labels as "patriotic" is the complete opposite! All this and now we are engaged in the most expensive War in human history against a "noun" ... THE WAR ON TERROR !!! Whats next? "THE WAR ON MANY OTHER TERRIFYING THINGS" ... or perhaps "THE WAR ON BAD PEOPLE"! If they weren't using my tax dollars for all this I would dismiss it as some sort of Saturday Night Live skit!

But here is the truth. If after you read this and have not had one single thought of the Gestapo and Nazi tactics then you are indeed more brainwashed than I thought! After WW2 how many good Nazis looked back at the furvent Hitler days and said, "What the hell was I thinking?" Like waking from a bad dream only to find out it wasn't a bad dream it was "real"! Imagine if you visited a foreign country and this happened to you would you ever go back even if the "shopping" was great?

The other side of this is the enormous expense to the US taxpayers or is our governemnt just in training to use these same tactics on us some day! The thought has not escaped me that it would be easy to round up the "subversive unpatriotic" bloggers and throw them into a US(Halliburton built)gulag!

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK !!!

Last I heard ICELAND was not a "terrorist" stronghold!

Here is a part of this woman's ordeal in the hands of Homeland Security! Seig Heil! When you see this woman's photo perhaps the guards had "other motives" in mind! Foreign supermodels who like to shop BEWARE! Go to the link below to read the rest.

LOST

Blog by Erla Ósk Arnardóttir Lillendahl:

(English Translation: Gunnar Tómasson, Certified translator)

During the last twenty-four hours I have probably experienced the greatest humiliation to which I have ever been subjected. During these last twenty-four hours I have been handcuffed and chained, denied the chance to sleep, been without food and drink and been confined to a place without anyone knowing my whereabouts, imprisoned. Now I am beginning to try to understand all this, rest and review the events which began as innocently as possible.

Last Sunday I and a few other girls began our trip to New York. We were going to shop and enjoy the Christmas spirit. We made ourselves comfortable on first class, drank white wine and looked forward to go shopping, eat good food and enjoy life. When we landed at JFK airport the traditional clearance process began. We were screened and went on to passport control. As I waited for them to finish examining my passport I heard an official say that there was something which needed to be looked at more closely and I was directed to the work station of Homeland Security. There I was told that according to their records I had overstayed my visa by 3 weeks in 1995. For this reason I would not be admitted to the country and would be sent home on the next flight. I looked at the official in disbelief and told him that I had in fact visited New York after the trip in 1995 without encountering any difficulties. A detailed interrogation session ensued. I was photographed and fingerprinted. I was asked questions which I felt had nothing to do with the issue at hand. I was forbidden to contact anyone to advise of my predicament and although I was invited at the outset to contact the Icelandic consul or embassy, that invitation was later withdrawn. I don't know why. I was then made to wait while they sought further information, and sat on a chair before the authority for 5 hours. I saw the officials in this section handle other cases and it was clear that these were men anxious to demonstrate their power. Small kings with megalomania ...

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2dukmm

kaimu:
The young lady's story reminds me of the "three greatest lies ever told": 1. "of course I'll respect you in the morning"; 2. "you can be sure that George W. Bush is a moderate"; and, 3. "I'm from your government and I'm here to HELP YOU".

HELP! HELP!

Zenob,
Like I said before Ron Paul isn't perfect and I don't want to argue religion. Personally, the office of faith based initiatives may be a good idea as it encourages religious charity to step in where government has been ineffective.

I have no problem abolishing the department of Education. If I had my way I would privatize all schools immediately.

I really like Ron Paul's position that we can't keep spending our Grandchildren's money. We have to rein in this out of control government machine.

Who else supports even slowing the growth of Government.

The economics of our future is the most important issue because there's still time to save Social Security and Medicare and pay off the debt before the Baby Boomers retire en masse.

What issue could be more important to our future than returning to fiscal sanity?

Rob.

After reading kaimu's 'Lost' before lunch I'm having trouble seeing my soup because of the tears of sadness for the poor woman and our country.

Rob:
I respect your opinions but, IMHO, the three most dangerous concepts ever introduced in our democracy are: De-regulation, Self-regulation and Privatization.

Haven't you had enough of privatizing ancillary services to the military, for example, and thus creating Halliburton, BKR and BLACKWATER!

Privatizers are nothing better than maggots in disguise. No, there are certain areas where you absolutely need dedicated, career professionals and not merely greed-mongers. Certainly, education is one of these.

Back in WWII, "privatized military support services" would have been laughed out of the room; and, if you remember correctly, that was the LAST war we actually WON.

Hi Everyone,

I believe Rep. Ron Paul wants to eliminate a number of bureaucracies at the Federal level (the Department of Education being one of them) and give the authority on these matters to the States, thereby decentralizing power and control. In my opinion, his policies adhere closely to the principles our founding fathers had in mind when they created our Constitution.

You can learn more about Rep. Ron Paul at http://ronpaullibrary.org/

RH

“The main thing you have to contend with when electing a president is the people he brings to office with him.” Posted by: Zenob at December 18, 2007 10:56 AM

The main thing in considering a candidate is judgment, common sense and flexibility.

You don’t have to like the individual, but they should be competent. Unfortunately, the media 15 second soundbite seems to meet most Americans’ needs. Perhaps with all the challenges facing us now, more will pay closer attention.

Judgment/common sense: Not just who one brings with him/her, who does he/she appoint? Among many examples, I provide this one people may recall: Appointing a breeder of champion horses as head of FEMA. This is an example of poor judgment and a lack of common sense.

By flexibility: Does he/she understand the meaning of “When the facts change, I change” or do you “maintain the course” repeatedly no matter what?

Looking at current candidates on both (all) sides of the fence, you can eliminate some already. But some on both sides appear they may have some of the aforementioned attributes.

These attributes of common sense & flexibility apply to trading as well. Unfortunately, human emotions cloud our issues at times. We are all students of the game.

Ronbon,
So what you're saying is we can never hope to cut spending at the federal or state level because we can't deregulate or privatize anything? And the govenment, once it starts something, can never stop.

So soon we'll start spend our Great Grandchildren's money.

Last time I checked kids going to private schools or kids being homeschooled scored far higher on the government tests than kids going to government schools.

I don't mean to be rude but the financial mess the politicians have created angers me greatly!!!

Rob.

RED RED RED

ROH ROH

THE BULL IS DEAD...500 BILLION CAN'T HELP...

Finger Lakes:
You say that kids who go to private school score higher on tests than kids who go to public school. While I am not sure that is true, even if it was, you have to look at all of the other factors in the situation. Is it the private school that lets them achieve, or is it their privileged socio-economic background?

In response to OldGoat yesterday, yeah, I know you can set stops for option positions by using the ticker itself as a trigger. It's just a little harder to work with. I just made a trade (1 contract) with such a trigger because I need to learn these things. The main problems are:

1) It's hard to trigger on option prices. They can move far without an actual sale, and the ask/bid/mark can fluctuate quite a bit especially at the open as the spread often starts wide before tightening. I remember some KRY options where the last execution price was maybe 0.50 over the ask price! Triggering on the underlying deals with this.

2) If I am willing to take a 0.20 hit on an option (to pick an arbitrary number), does that mean I trigger on the stock dropping 0.20? If I'm deep in the money, that probably is close to accurate, but if I'm at the money it can be harder to tell where I should set my stop on the underlying.

3) Market orders for options are generally a bad idea. So you have to decide how you want your sale price to be set. Today I said when it triggered on the underlying, sell at 0.05 below the last price. Should I have used mark? Should I have gone further down? I have no idea, but hopefully I'll learn.

The right answer is probably to set a safety net automatic stop, but try to use mental stops and maybe set some alerts so you know when you need to evaluate your positions against those mental stops. But I'm still learning, so hopefully I'll find a comfortable approach after some experimentation. Thanks for reminding me to look into this.

Oh, and I don't consider an implicit stop of a 100% loss in a long option to be adequate. ;) My active trading account is almost all options, so if I rely on that, I can get almost completely wiped out.

The Office of Faith Based Initiatives was nothing more then a means of funneling state dollars to religious groups when it was founded. The performance of those spent dollars has been so poor that they stopped keeping records of the various organizations several years after it was created. Now it's little more then an unaccountable government money tap for churches.

Why would you wish to abolish the department of education? I still haven't found a viable reason for that yet.

As for our grandchildren's money, it's not being spent, it IS spent. We have a 50 trillion dollar anvil hanging over our country at present and a moron for a leader who insists on sending trillions more to his disaster in the middle east. I agree that something has to be done but the whole sale dismantling of the government is hardly a rational response. Bill Clinton balanced the budget and gave us a 400 billion dollar surplus during his term. And the democrats are the one's that are stigmatized as the "tax and spend" party. Yet it's the R's that have been spending money like they are drunken sailors. The way I see it, if Bill Clinton could reign in spending AND provide a large surplus in the process, then I think the next president should probably be one of the dems and hopefully they would renew that process. Then we should be pushing for the needed reforms at the same time(like separation between state and bank for one). I would much prefer a rational response to our fiscal problems rather then another republican spending money like crazy or Ron Paul running around Washington with a chain saw.

The only thing I worry about is that if we have a dem executive AND a dem house they might get too cozy and go spending crazy like the republicans did. I tend to prefer having those two branches opposed to one another. It limits the damage they can do.

Some interesting ideas for playing food price inflation, from Forbes:

http://tinyurl.com/2amxdu

I am watching ^BKX bank index under support at 90 and ^XBD broker dealer index under support at 200.

Also, turnaround Tuesday is usually very reliable. We may be seeing the emperor lose his clothes. We will see what happens at 1400.

ALOHA !!

rharaz ... EXACTLY !!! Let the locals handle education, abortion, and all other matters of socialization. Since when was Washington DC an expert on anything? Here's what I do when I hire soemone who isn't working ... I FIRE THEM!! Our government and the typical US Voter promotes them! OH YEAH WE WANT MORE FAILURES !!! GIVE US MORE OF THE SAME GREEDY IDIOTS!!! It is obvious to me that the only professional experts residing in Washington DC are professional and expert theives and crooks!

ronbon ... BLACKWATER is not privatization ... its "cronyism"! BLACKWATER is in Iraq because our guttless politiicans are too afraid to implement a DRAFT! Anyone who compares the Iraq thing to WW2 hasn't quite got all the facts straight. WW2 was an actual "real" war where all of the US citizens participated and things actually got rationed and the government actually called a spade-a-spade and issued "War Bonds" and movie stars went to the front in a uniform with a gun not in a thong with a mike!

What do you guys expect from a corrupt fiat monetary system?

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Rob,

In some states where voucher programs have been implemented, grades have gone up for those going to private schools while test scores have gone down. The explanation being that when you are competing for students, easier classes make for happier students, and parents usually don't have a great way to judge comparative educational quality of schools themselves.

Of course, I'm biased against private schools since I was taught in one of the best school systems in the US (Fairfax County, VA), and there the only advantage of private schools was that they had things like horse farms on property. There was little if any educational advantage.

Jeff

Since we can't seem to avoid politics, here's one of my favorites (and I'm actually registered Libertarian) - Mike Gravel - rational views on many issues:
http://www.gravel2008.us/issues

crystallex--sad story----------one of the biggest gold finds.no permit and no support.what will happen in 2008? could the permit happen? russty.

NG vs GLD

11/23 to today,

NG -70%
GLD -2.89

How much do you need to make going forward to get even?

The Cost Of Bush: $32 Trillion

17 Dec 2007 02:02 pm

The opinion of another shrill hysteric? Just David M. Walker, the Comptroller General of the United States and head of the GAO:

In a speech today at the National Press Club, he said, "If the federal government was a private corporation and the same report came out this morning, our stock would be dropping and there would be talk about whether the company's management and directors needed a major shake-up." Walker urged greater transparency and accountability over the federal government's operations, financial condition, and fiscal outlook...

"The federal government's fiscal exposures totaled approximately $53 trillion as of September 30, 2007, up more than $2 trillion from September 30, 2006, and an increase of more than $32 trillion from about $20 trillion as of September 30, 2000," Walker said. "This translates into a current burden of about $175,000 per American or approximately $455,000 per American household."

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/12/the-cost-of-bus.html

"or is it their privileged socio-economic background?"

I went to Catholic school, in Gary Indiana. My mother was a public school teacher and then an administrator in the area, and said there was no way she was sending her kids to a public school. But the funny thing was that we were labeled the RICH kids... just if you went there. It was hilarious! You know why? We weren't the ones with air conditioning (the Catholic school didn't have it), a Olympic sized pool, a football stadium, or a massive performing arts theater. What did the school spend money on? The basics, and providing teachers who wanted to see their students succeed.

Education isn't about spending all the money the government can get from a community. I, and a lot of folks I know, struggle to send their children to private school because they know it's an investment in the future. Why not afford everyone that opportunity?

On the S&P 500, the 100 DMA is sitting right on top of the 200 DMA right around 1487. Usually these events don't occur very easily. I would not be surprised to see a snap back rally in the second half today and into tomorrow.

"Bill Clinton balanced the budget and gave us a 400 billion dollar surplus during his term. And the democrats are the one's that are stigmatized as the "tax and spend" party."

I seem to recall a man by the name of Newt Gingrich who was "The Grinch who stole Christmas" because he shut the government down to get a balanced budget.

"Lost" is a very sad story indeed.

Question: With the problems in the banking sector and other discussions here about the uncertainty of money market funds I am trying to figure out a safe place to hold cash. Does anyone think that credit unions are safer than banks for a place to hold something like a CD? Any opinions are appreciated.

I don't think the lack of a draft is what's responsible for the mess with mercenaries in Iraq. It's a result of this administration's attempt to "outsource" the war(and profit from it at the same time). It's just more of the same nonsense about privatization always making things better. Privatization isn't magic. It has it's place but it's not a cure all. And privatization without any kind of oversight or regulation is just asking for disaster.

This country was made great in large part due to it's advancements in science and technology. This was due to our education system. What do you think would happen if we privatized that? Our education system is already under sustained attack as it is by fundamentalists who hate science simply because it disproves their literal interpretation of the bible. As it stands now a LOT of people in this country think that the earth is only 5k years old and that Jesus rode a dinosaur to church every Sunday. That's a SERIOUS problem.

Telestar3rd,
A lot just to get even. However, that is only when you sell your shares and have to start from what's left. Things can always turn around--I am not saying they will in this case--but sometimes they do! Best to accept it was a mistake and try nit to make it again in the future--I'm speaking from personal experience, I feel the pain. Gus

Rusty1. Nothing will happen with KRY until such time as Hugo finishes pondering as to whether he should introduce a new mining law by decree. Now that he has been knocked sideways he may have new ideas up his sleeve for the well being of the country. He could also play Santa and make alot of investors happy but I would not hold my breath.

Rob:
Privatizing and De-regulation are not a way to cut spending. It merely gives the money to profit-making entities instead of direct employees. In fact, Privatization probably INCREASES spending since it introduces a middleman into the mix. It also introduces the problem of "political patronage" as seen in the incompetence and greed of the vultures profiting from the Bush administration.

Cutting services, or coordinating them, is another...although very dicey...matter. This administration is merely enriching its friends with almost total disregard for actually delivering services.

But perhaps the greatest sin of this administration is its UN-willingness to pay for what it does. When you spend TWO TRILLION dollars on an un-needed..and un-productive..war and then CUT TAXES (especially on those most able to pay), that is irresponsibility of the highest order. And that is what I fear most about the current crop of Washington-insider candidates.

Because they aren't all they;re cracked up to be.

Yes, the basics at Catholic schools are wonderful, however, when you get beyond basics there are issues. One of my professional associates was a Catholic school teacher. Very proud of the fact that if you didn't behave she would slam you into a wall. Great. Just what we need to teach....our society is lacking in violence instruction.
Then when discussing carbon monoxide poisoning I was shocked to hear from this enlightened soul that we do NOT live on a carbon based planet.
Holy cow! Really?

I went to public schools. A not so well to do student within the borders of a well to do school district.

I now live in a "regular" working class school district.

It's about money, resources and opportunity, not whether the schools are private or public.
If we would fund education properly the public schools would be just fine, but we don't.

We don't because some of us want to fight our religious wars in the schools instead of accepting that all of us are a little different and accepting that as fact.
The schools are for learning, not evangelizing.

If we could only get the ADULTS to behave, well, like adults.

The House is set to vote on Tuesday on the $500 billion 2008 Omnibus Appropriations Bill. Hidden in the bill is a major energy package that would boost government financing for the nuclear industry. It would provide loan guarantees of up to $25 billion for new nuclear reactors.

Bull Hunter....

Thanks for the video....

PATIENCE ...is a very hard lesson to learn...but I've made great progress these past few weeks.

Community...what are the odds of testing the November lows on the QQQQ and hte SPY before year end?

Golfer

Thanks for the updated link. It works now.

So far, the Korvus RSI app has correctly called what appears to be the top in AAPL with its sell alert triggered the other day around $188 (appx). AAPL now trading at $180 and looking fairly weak.

I would be interested to backtest AAPL and see when other alerts have been issued (would have been issued) if anyone is savvy with the RSI data.

OldGoat...

You bet I got stops on now!

"Think how much free-er you'd be now if you'd taken a small loss back then and waited for (& taken advantage of) a better entry?"

The thing is OldGoat... I would of doen that if they would of been small losses. But the market turn so quickly that day [down -170+ to 260+ up]that I was looking at large losses in a matter of mins. So I just waited.
It won't happen again. At least I hope not. :^)

Re: Asia Times "Bear Market"

Quote: "Gold dust
Outside the United States, it seems likely that the commodities boom or bubble will continue, at least for the first few months of the year. The merits of oil, gold and other commodities as inflation hedges will increasingly recommend them to the huge money pools of hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds. Gold in particular is likely to see quite a spurt - maybe heading towards the $1,500 level. Later in the year, the commodity boom will collapse, but over the year as a whole it seems unlikely that commodity prices will greatly decline."

EXAMPLES

Nickel Chart:

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-1y-Large.gif

Uranium Chart:

http://uxc.com/review/uxc_Prices.aspx

Conclusion: such large drops in price normally indicate that the bull market is over and that losses are about to show up in earnings.

My question for the Asia Times writer and anybody that lumps gold in with base metals is:

ARE YOU PEOPLE COMPLETELY RETARDED!!!!!

Thank you for your time.

F6

It's lights out for traditional light bulbs

"A little-noticed provision of the energy bill, which is expected to become law, phases out the 125-year-old bulb in the next four to 12 years in favor of a new generation of energy-efficient lights that will cost consumers more but return their investment in a few months."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/environment/2007-12-16-light-bulbs_N.htm

AOD - Back in @ 17.05 w/ close stop. Goes ex-div 12/20; $0.18 payable 12/28.

ALOHA !!

Maybe what US Voters need is a Michael Moore type documentary following your tax dollars as it leaves your employer's office on a form 941 or via your 1040 form with your personal check. It travels all they way to Washington DC where it runs a gauntlet of special interests and parts of your money are diverted for a bridge in Alaska and some goes to Blackwater and some goes to the NJ School Dist and some goes to contractors building a "Judicial Center" in Hilo, Hawaii and some goes to Halliburton in Dubai and some goes to Wall Street Bank Relief and some goes into the pockets of "legislators" and to the study of the Guatemalan Tree Frog and some goes to Israel to "aid" their country and some goes to Lockheed for a more modern bomber and on and on and on and on ... Just how much ends up in your own backyard? Wouldn't it be much more efficient to keep most of it in your backyard right from the start, instead of running through the SPENDING gauntlet in Washington DC? Who knows better about which potholes to patch on your street you or Dick Cheney? When you commute to work and your office is about six miles away from your home do you travel to Washington DC and back to get to your office? Why should your hard-earned tax money have to? It's not a difficult concept to grasp ... I mean a bunch of old guys over 200 years ago figured it out without needing an I-Pod or MS Office ... Why is it US Voters cling to this idea that somehow a BIG HUGE CENTRALIZED GOVERNMENT full of "experts" is needed? That's the PROBLEM not the SOLUTION!

Actually the Gingrich budget of 95 wouldn't have balanced the budget. That was just the way the republicans were marketing it to the public. Their budget was really just a whole lot of hacking and slashing of things they didn't like(education, medicare, social security, etc). Their plan projected a balanced budget by 2002. I don't think I have to tell anybody here that if you let the government sell you something today with a promise to "make it worth your while" 7 years on down the road, you are going to get what you deserve.

"the mess that greenspan made" ...

Today's NY Times has a great article entitled "Fed Shrugged as Subprime Crisis Spread". Title is a pun referring to that infantile Ayn Rand book about individual freedom which Greenspan so worshiped.

He's busy putting out his propaganda (memoirs) and defending his every action at the Fed - including deciding NOT to intervene in sub-prime despite multiple warnings.

Can't any of the guys who run the US be regular guys, show some humility, and admit mistakes?

Of course not, and our only revenge is to become great traders, and protect ourselves against their self-serving, self-dealing actions and talk ...

My philosophy is very simple.

Government does too much, and by doing too much, it spends too much. No one disagrees that we have already spent our Grandchildren's money!!

So what is the big disagreement? Which programs to cut? Keep the Dept of Education if you want but then cut somewhere else. Cut the Faith based Initiative. I think everything should be cut equally. I want a balanced budget, running a surplus every quarter, that is used to pay down the debt. I want a return to respecting the Constitution.

There's only one person who is even saying it's smart to control government spending. All the rest of the candidates seem to have big ideas about how to spend our Great Grandchildren's money.

And instead of privatizing government jobs, I'm for just cutting them outright. Put everything on the table and only fund what is most essential to life.

Why does the Dept of Education seem vulnerable? Because every state has it's own dept of Education. Why do we need the overlap? So the Federal Education Dept pulls the strings of the State ED dept who pulls the strings of the local District. I think the power should be in each local district with the state Ed Depts and Federal ED Dept, if we need to keep it, just setting standards and confirming they are met and that's all they should do.

We can't run a surplus and pay off the debt if we don't cut somewhere?

What do you all think should be cut?
Or maybe you all think we should keep spending our future.

Good thing I bought the GS April calls or I'd be bumming now. I can't believe HRB is the highest stock on my screen. What a smoke job that company is.

Rob.

And Clinton didn't balance the budget by the way.
He made it appear that the budget was balanced but him and Congress still spent the $718Billion in Social Security surplusses during his tenure. And that's not even counting the Medicare and Federal Pension surplusses they spent as well.

And, of course, big spender Bush hasn't saved those surplusses either.

A true balanced budget would save those surplusses in other investments besides Treasuries, maybe Gold, and then honestly cut spending or raise taxes to achieve a balanced budget.

Hey, the rubber band market is back up again. It's like a yo-yo lately.

Rob.

Rob:
I really admire the discourse here, and honesty of the ideas (which must reflect the authors).

Your idea of the Education Dept. merely setting standards seems excellent. As for Faith Based Initiatives, it is just one more Bush monstrosity and should be unceremoniously chopped.

There is, however, one factor that Americans are going to be forced to confront: no matter how much cutting is done, taxes will have to be raised since that is the core of the problem. As someone pointed out, the combination of Clinton administration and a Republican Congress managed to balance the budget, but that balance was undermined by the Bush tax cuts.

Back in the WWII era, the top marginal income tax rate was about 70 percent and, while that draconian an amount may not be needed, something close to it will.

The very good thing to be said about that kind of rate is that it has a tendency to level the playing field since fewer people are motivated to indulge their greed.

For anyone desiring a constructive lesson in nation-building (our nation, that is), the history of the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration (and particularly its early years) should provide inspiration. I grew up in that period and virtually no one in today's "middle class" can conceive of the peril in which our nation found itself or the uplifting effects of Roosevelt's leadership.

Perhaps the greatest political disappointment of my life is that I never had the opportunity to vote for FDR although I was (and am) proud to have had him as my Commander-In-Chief in WWII. (God, how I pity the poor slobs who have to admit that their CIC was George W. Bush; I might have had to commit suicide!

ALOHA !!

All administrations even Clinton's have never balanced any budgets much less had surpluses! They all steal from the Social Security Trust Fund to make ends meet.

Those who argue that the federal budget is balanced assert, in effect, that ‘if cash in equals cash out, the budget is balanced, and if cash in exceeds cash out, there is a surplus.’ Yet the reality of the federal budget is more complex.

Part of the federal budget’s ‘cash in’ is in the form of payroll deductions for individual contributions to the Social Security trust fund. These funds are intended to be put towards paying current and future Social Security benefits. Rather than banking any extra funds towards payment of future benefits, the government uses the money to supplement its ‘cash out.’

Monies intended for the Social Security trust fund used to balance the government’s ‘cash out’ are added to the total federal debt. It is for this reason that in FY98, the year in which OMB estimated that the budget surplus would be $39 billion, the total U.S. statutory debt grew, according to U.S. government estimates, from $5.328 trillion to $5.506 trillion, an increase of $178 billion. If I steal money from my parents to pay my car lona payment can I really say I balanced my budget?

THATS THE POINT ... It doesn't matter what the Clinton's say the budget was because that can change in any direction depending on how you want to count the beans. For instance after you pay your mortgage and electric bill and you have $1000 left over if you paid down your credit card debt with that $1000 then you'd actually be doing something fiscally responsible. Problem is, like the US government, most Americans don't pay down their debt, instead they take that extra $1000 and buy a new suit or a trip to VEGAS or put options on HRB!

In actuality Clinton did nothing budget wise or debt wise or money supply wise. Look at the charts ...

M3 "annual growth rate" went down from 1982 to 1993 then from 1993 to 2000 M3 skyrocketed all through the Clinton years and on into the Baby Bush years and today it is running past a 15% annual rate!

Please ... do not throw out this con job about how either of the two party aristocracy is doing us any favors in terms of fiscal responsibility. THEY ARE NOT! THEY NEVER HAVE! THEY NEVER WILL! The whole system has to collapse before anything changes! That's the nature of Empires ...

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Very cruel Bill. Ours backs still hurt, but payback time is around September. :-)

AOD - Exited @ 17.30 +1.47%

so the market throws another curve- glad i was occupied all morning->saved me the trouble of watching the reversal...not so glad about missing the exit opportunity in DUG...even less glad to see BMD make it 5-days-in-a-row...

I agree on the social security trust funds. They need to be locked and Washington doesn't need the key. They like reaching in there way too much.

AOD - I always sell too soon; but then, my position size was large and my limit exit orders--submitted using IB's highly recommended "hidden" feature--took a long time to fill. As it is, I'm happy with my win and will now look for another opportunity.

2nd/Craig - Got any aces up your sleeves?

OG- not today...like your comment re position size->we tend to let smaller positions run, and nurse the larger ones too much, for what often ammounts to identical dollar gains in the end..might be a 'lesson' there..

really can't argue with high cash levels right now, we'll get another unexpected opportunity to press one side or the other soon enough...

FXP/QID- fwiw, ex-dividend date will be 12/20/07...

2nd

what do they pay per share on FXP/QID?

OG, I've been playing SKF all day.

Took long and short positions and played chart wars.

Currently short into what i think will be an up close.

Bears had their run this morning with fresh lows to SPX 1435. Then bulls had their turn and rallied the average +22 points from the mid-day low.

Where does that leave us? Well, the technicals are almost as weak as yesterday which suggests the upside is capped for now and the downside is still in play, probably until Friday afternoon/Monday when the approaching holiday should put the bears to sleep for awhile.

In the meantime, the size of today's ECB intervention in the European money markets suggests to me that the scale of liquidity/solvency issues for financial services firms must also be quite large.

Ronbon,
Even though I'm from Gen X, I really do admire FDR. The way he inspired people to lift themselves up, with a little help from the government showed how much of a true statesman he was. We need someone like that now who can inspire people and government to be fiscally responsible.

I'm all for paying higher taxes as long as the money is used for debt reduction or for saving the surplusses of the social programs in another investment besides US Treasuries.

Sadly, the only time I see anyone wanting to raise taxes it's to fund more needless spending. If we don't convince government to stop spending us into a hole soon, it may be too late, as by then the debt will be insurmountable and the world will no longer accept our currency.

The reason I like Ron Paul is because he sees the reality and has offered solutions. His answers might not be correct but he's the only one advocating cutting government instead of growing government.

Rob.

Old Goat: What is "IB's highly recommended "hidden" feature--"? Thanks in advance.

Rob:
I'm right with you as for bringing about fiscal reality and understand the frustration all of us feel about how our taxes are used/abused. Getting the Washington establishment to understand that is the tough part. One way to move in that direction would be to virtually ELIMINATE lobbying. While it would be difficult to prohibit corporations from trying to influence legislation, it could be accomplished by a pincers movement: a) prohibit Congresspersons...and their staffs...from contacts with persons who have ANY VESTED FINANCIAL interest in legislation; and b)disallow lobbying costs to be WRITTEN OFF.

A 1-2 punch like that should bring a lot of fiscal integrity to our nation's most corrupt city.

Wow, it looks like UNG might acutally have an up day! Patiently long...

Bill:
As far as I know, all States are required to have balanced budgets.

And "why not the national government", you ask.

Answer: Beats me.

TimG

"... UNG might acutally have an up day! Patiently long..."

Seems like I been waiting for ever too.

I doubt if New York has to have a balanced budget, unless you count selling bonds to balance the budget as a valid way to reach a balanced budget. New York is just as bankrupt as the Federal Govt.

I think some states do require a balanced budget but not all of them.

As for Education it is supposed to be run by the individual states but, just like many other ways the govt has stomped on the constitution, the FEDs use the promise of money for Education to pull the strings of the states and the states us the promise of money for Education to pull the strings of the local districts. It's exactly the opposite of the way it should be.

Ronbon,
I agree totally with your lobbying stance. How about term limits as well? Two terms in Congress and that's it!! That's how Founders meant for Government to work.

Private Citizens had their own careers or businesses that they left for a few years to "serve their country that had allowed them to create this wealth" And then after their service they went back to their private careers.

Contrast that with what we have now. Lifelong politicians and then, upon retirement, paid for by us, they hit the speech circuit or join the latest lobbying group to "monetize" their influence. Sickening to say the least.

We desperately need true leadership like an FDR or a Thomas Jefferson.

Rob.

Re: Comparing Private School student test results vs Public School student test results from some sort of STANDARDIZED TEST.

I believe that there is little basis for such a comparison as the results are going to be skewed from the beginning.

Is it not true that besides being able to afford Private Schools most if not all Private Schools have some sort of academic screening process for acceptance.

Thus, if they accept only those that have a high chance of academic success the chances of the school having high standardized test scores will be higher than those schools that have students with a WIDE variety of learning abilities and/or disabilities.

When I went to High School in the late 1950's and early 60s everyone (public school and private school students) who wanted to get into university had to write province wide exams which were then marked in a central city by basically independent markers. (I think Bill can attest to this.)

Needless to say the results which were made public were used in various ways. Some schools would boast that say 95% of their students received passing grades and/or university acceptance. Other schools might only have a lowly 60% "success" rate. Private school results were pitted against public school results...private vs private, public vs public etc.

Were the comparative results valid?

Well, not only were problems of academic qualifications between Private and Public Schools at work to skewer the results but unknown to most of us at the time there was another factor at work.

While we could go to the public school of our choice (in most cases) and be educated in those schools and thus prepared to write the Provincial Exams we could be assigned to write them as an INDEPENDENT i.e. with no official school designation. Therefore, some of these schools became the best "University Prep Schools" because of the their student's standardized exam results. Again, if you only allow those who are most likely to not only pass but attain high marks to complete the exam under the school's name you have a pretty good chance of having a very high relative standing.

As an aside may I suggest that a comparison of today's school SYSTEM to that of the past must be done very carefully. Most people that I have encountered tend to base it on the "when I was in school" argument.

I suggest that if one really wants to understand the school system of any time period one must really learn and try to understand what the social, political, economic and legal mores and systems were at that time and then put the education system into that context. It is then that a true understanding of the role and workings of the education system can be garnered.

So when we are trying to understand today's school systems and we try to make an argument based on "when I was in school" stop and think about such things as:

Did the society of the time have entry level jobs for those 14,15 16 year olds who had great difficulty learning to read and/or write, or didn't want to be in school or did not want to go to university. Did the employers of these young people complain about their limitations or were they just happy that they could hire some BODY to work in their factories? Where are these types today and until what age?

Did the society of the time have "reform schools" for their young offenders? What schools do today's courts send these young offenders to?

Did the society of the time have medical facilities available for young people who had legitimate psychological problems? Where are these types being tended to today?

Where did the blind, the deaf, the severely mentally challenged go to school? What schools are many of them attending today?

What I am telling you does not come from some book. I taught in a high school situation (both private and public)for some thirty years and at one time or another had every type of student in mentioned above in a regular classroom.

As society changes so does its institutions. I believe that if you want to understand how an institution got to be what it is like, study its history. If you want to understand it as it is, look at it NOW and be very quick for it may not be the same tomorrow.

Hi Bill,

"Is education not a State matter with little to do with the Federal govt, like in Canada, or do I have it wrong?"

The US Federal Government is involved with education and has instituted programs such as the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA), as well as "No Child Left Behind".

To quote Ron Paul (http://ronpaullibrary.org/document.php?id=241),
"The Constitution does not authorize any federal involvement in education; Article I grants Congress no authority to create, fund, or regulate schools at all. Therefore, under the 10th Amendment public education should be purely a state and local matter. This means Congress should not be taxing you to fund a huge federal education bureaucracy that exercises dictatorial control over curriculum and standards nationwide. Those tax dollars should be left with parents and local voters, who can best decide how to allocate precious education resources. Public schools should be funded at the local level with local tax dollars, where waste is minimized and accountability is greatest."

RH

In response to jk484 @ 1:02.....
"It's lights out for traditional light bulbs"

I brought to the forum PHG last week. You may want to keep this stock on your watch list if you into the green-alternative theme.

The whole states versus federal issue is pretty malleable to most political animals. If you ask a person his position on abortion, he will tell you he thinks it's should be a state matter(of course he does if he opposes it since it's already been decided at the federal level). If you then ask him his position on gay marriage, he won't say anything about states rights, he'll say there should be a constitutional amendment to ban it. Very inconsistent. You can see the same dynamic play out in other issues. Republican politicians are the ones who most usually beat the "states rights" drum. Yet if you try and pass a law to limit their special interest money, they become the most fervent defenders of the first amendment you've ever seen.

The issue of education plays out much the same way. One of the main reasons for support on the political right to scrapping the department of education is because the department of education is responsible for setting standards for schools. Those standards(and the constitution) prohibit local school boards from turning their classrooms into bible schools. You see this constantly here in the states. Creationists try to sneak onto local school boards so they can seize control of science standards for their school district. Once in office the first thing they do is start attacking evolution while pandering to what is called "intelligent design" which is just garden variety creationism that's been re-labeled. It doesn't matter how many times they get exposed and shot down they just keep repeating this process. They've tried it and been shut down in Kansas, they got beat bloody over it in Dover Pennsylvania a year ago and are STILL squealing over it because it set court precedent. Right now there are two new groups trying to do it, one in Texas and the other in Florida. The whole "education should be controlled locally" thing is largely just an aspect of the culture war here in the states.

I really value the discourse on this site, but lately much of it seems to have become a forum for debating U.S. politics, religion, private versus public health care/schools, etc. I come to the site because of the intelligent discussion and insight on capital markets, and as a Canadian appreciate the international perspective and audience it attracts. There are tons of discussion groups on other sites if you really want to debate politics and religion.

Wow, if that's all the ammo there is then put a fork in this market, it's done. I was dancing like a whirling dhurvish (sp?) today. Thought the close would be stronger and was kinda disappointed. Covered my SKF short and went long into the close since it was so weak.

Again, small position overnight.

Bill, each state has control of basic ed but like everything in the U.S. someone is always trying to control what everyone else does, so we have the federal government taking tax $ then reallocating it according to what they want to control. Long ago it was to get a handle on racism in individual states and of course the opposite side now uses the same scheme to introduce their religious agenda of no real sex ed, just say no to being a human being, abstinence (did that work for even ONE person here?) and no child left behind, which is code for make teachers teach what WE want. Readin' Writin', Rithmatic, Christmas and prayer. None of that fairy art, music, dance, or any of that other liberal crap. Surely none of that Islam stuff. Freedom is for other countries.
And testing teachers? We have to test every teacher for NCLB but any yahoo wanting to "home school" has a green light. What test?
How many of these parents has a GED much less a Masters in education?

No...Just football, baseball and basketball and no bellyaching about steroids. What else is .000002% of our black population going to do with their full athletic scholarships? You don't expect us to educate these kids do you?
Aren't they just gladiators/fodder?

No, let's not confuse the situation with actual goals and real education, that would be hard and there would be no one to punish, which we really like. If you're not in prison we're trying to indoctrinate you into a non-voting, tax paying, check-mailing idiot. Art will get in the way and besides, it might open minds to leftist views like in Europe where they like to enjoy life like a bunch of lazy pinkos.

We want pumped up football players that will run over the kids from other schools and then volunteer for the military. Booyah!

Hey, but we're number one, eh? LOL!!!

Dave,
Aren't you lucky? You gotta give us a few to vent or we'll explode. Have you seen what I owe the national debt?

If I moved north 3 hours I would save $148,000 USD which is what, dirt, compared to CDN?

Of course you don't want to discuss this crap, you live in a creditor nation.

I L O V E the folks on this board; such irreverence...but with a bushel of common sense. There may be anti-politician views, but few anti-logic ones.

Huzzah!!

Too bad everyone's holding back today--seems kinda quiet ;-)

Isn't it likely at this point the U.S. gov't will just inflate away it's debt (along with it's citizen's debt, too)? I thought that's the way they do these things. That would mean we will get a chance to suffer, not our grandchildren.

I'm loving this political discourse. I eat it up.
Every election year, engaged citizens like all of you here raise the volume and it is great.
Now, for a guy like Ron Paul to even think of sitting in the Oval Office, an extreme makeover is in order. He must return to politics - politics is the art of persuasion.
You count your votes at the end of the day. That's what you do.
A seemingly rigid, inflexible obstetrician/ideologue such as Paul will attract many new citizens to the public debate. Hey, I'm intrigued by the guy and his ideas on fiscal policy. Don't like his views on abortion etc.

Now how 'bout those alternative energy stocks!
Wave Power: Finavera FVR.V / Fnvrf.pk and Ocean Power Technologies OPTT.
Not a recommendation, only for discussion.

Disclosure: registered independent
Long OPTT and a few ultrashorts.

Stu

Denny:
That "inflating away the debt" was tried once, but its success was rather limited.

They called it The Weimar Republic and it succeeded in bringing Adolf Hitler to power.

Not bad for a bunch of amatuers.

I'm waiting for the bankruptcy changes that Bush pushed through a few years ago to start biting people. Right now a LOT of people in the US are over extended and essentially living off credit. Those sources of credit are pretty much drying up. Home equity is falling, credit standards are tightening, etc. The amount of people tapping savings vehicles like 401Ks are rising. Just wait until these people hit the breaking point and discover that they can't just go to a lawyer and file a piece of paper to wipe it all out. You guys up there in Canada won't have to see it on the news, when it happens, you'll be able to walk outside and hear the screaming from all the way up there.

Hi Bill?

Is the book out? I ordered it mid-November and the vendor said it hasn't been published?

Thanks in advance.

RPS

ronbon, you don't think that because it didn't work before, they won't try it again do you? What else is there to do when everyone owes so much money?

Denny:
I'm dying to see George W. Bush with a mustache; after that, I'll probably just be dying...period.

ronbon, Bernanke already has the facial hair. He's been very clear about how depressions can be avoided--you drop money from helicopters if need be. I'm just taking the guy at his word.

Actually I think the standard way that most presidents handle depressions is to throw everything they have into forestalling it until their term expires, then letting it implode. Then when anyone asks, they say in an innocent voice, "Everything was just fine during my term, but then that OTHER guy got in there and it all went to hell..."

KRY:
Apparently the "investors" over at the agoracom.com site don't appreciate my honest approach in my opinions regarding KRY. Even though I still own 4K shares underwater. That has been my choice to hold. I made comments a while back that the stock was headed for 1.85 to 2.00 a share. We are there now and considering that several individuals say they own 30-80K (thousand) shares, I can certainly see why having a "reality check" from the likes of me is unappreciated. It is unbelievable that "anyone" would place that much money in a speculative stock like this. I have stated that it is "my" opinion that this permit is being held up due to the fact that Hugo chavez want to classify it under his new mining laws that he will implement early this next year. Why else is the permit not here? Even GRZ is being held off on beginning production. Maybe I am way off base. I don't think that anyones portfolios are in danger because of my thoughts. Anyway the moderator notified me today that complaints were being directed at me and that I was in trouble because I stated that I remember trading KRY several months ago at 1.85/share usd. That price was back in '06. Hey, I'm 55 and time gets away from me occasionally. I like the site though. Many offer news one may not get otherwise. That is why I like Bill's blog. Diverse opinions are welcome.

fwiw scotia put out an update today re: WGI Western Goldfields Inc. "2008 Ramp-Up Guidance".

Spiel shows C$4.25 target and note also indicates that for re-opening of Mesquite mine in 2008 there likely will be higher 1Q costs vs. est. 2008 costs of C$397/oz for 145,000 oz. '08 production.

Not sure if the link thing will work but here's the 3 pager snipped out of the daily brokerage blurb.

http://tinyurl.com/3csd4h

disclosure - flat but have held long in the past.

...any thoughts from anyone on today's market....a bounce after being over-done on the downside......possible intermediate bottom after hitting resistance.....blip on meaningless news out of the ECB....start of rally into end of year.......some of all of the above.

Thoughts?

in terms of sentiment, difficult to get a take on the market right now->reminds me a little of last spring, when the best trades were reactive (as opposed to proactive)...plan is to sit back and watch, nothing wrong with waiting for the right pitch->the only strike-outs in this game are when you swing for no reason...

Investment Wiki:
http://www.wikinvest.com/special/Concepts

Topics include New Home Construction, Biofuels, Interest Rates, Revaluing the Yuan, etc.

All alphabetized.

Good for Wikipedia fans...

politics do have a hand in the markets.

isaiah- the last four (quarterly) dividends on QID ranged from 0.34 to 0.57 per share...not enough to outweigh any trading decision, IMO

2nd

Thanks for the div info....

2nd

Possible I can ask you a question off line?

ALOHA !!

Bill ... Unfortunately everything in the USA is a FEDERAL matter! IT'S THE USSA!! I can attest to the BIG CLUB the Federal governemnt has over the States, especially in school maintenance and construction. In essence if the State does not abide by what the Feds dictate then the Federal funding is withdrawn. That leaves the local government to run bond issues to finance projects and local governments are in enough hot water financially so they don't upset the Fed's little apple cart!

What is happening is that US Taxpayers are being held hostage and this is what Ron Paul wants to abolish. Why do we need two Dept of Ed and two Dept of Ag? Most of our tax dollars are taken from us by the Federal government and sent to Washington DC then if we don't do as the Feds say they hand the funding to some other city, county or state that will! In other words they threaten us with our own money! It's like the MAFIA ... A taxpayer funded extortion ring!!! I can't tell you how many times I have sat in School Dist offices listening to tales of how administrators have to jump through hoops to qualify for Federal funding and if you don't spend every last dime of that Federal funding every year then they give you less the next year! I honestly believe that truancy is important to School Districts only because they would lose their $5k funding per student if kids are missing!! I used to joke with the teachers to just put a blow-up dummy in the missing kids chair ... who's gonna know?

I can personally vouch for the disaster that is the Agriculture Dept here in Hawaii! The invasive species that have entered Hawaii is astounding since 2002! The Ag Dept here protects exports WAY MORE than imports. In my mind they hire these idiots for job security! I am waiting for the day when they announce snakes from Guam are now a problem! Want "details" of the Hawaii and Fed Ag Dept failures I got them! Too many to list here ...

Whats the old saying about the GOLDEN RULE? Who ever has the GOLD ... RULES!

You guys that think we are not yet paying enough taxes then you have not added the "total" tax burden on US citizens. Please do not talk just in terms of "income tax". I only wish that was all we had to pay! You leave out the Fed excise taxes and all the State and County and CIty taxes as well. Every utility bill you open is full of such taxes! If you buy a car you pay sales taxes! You own a home you pay property taxes ... They tax everything and even at death you are taxed(after exemptions 55% estate tax)! Total tax burden on someone with a 30% bracket is actually at 52% if you add in all other combined taxes. Trying to raise taxes in a severe recession or depression won't fly ... Under such circumstances the US Treasury will get the Federal Reserve to monetize the debt!

There will never be a time when it will be "good" to pay taxes so long as we have no accountability and a large CENTRAL GOVERNMENT!

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK ...

isaiah- going to use the following for blog-related email->evadn2(at)yahoo(dot)com...

GRgold,

With respect to NG (-70%) versus GLD (-2.89%) loss since 11/23/07, I’m not trying to single out NG as bad stock per say, but just the concept of not letting a stock one may own ever getting to that sort of gross loss. Hey, when you own a stock and it gaps down from 20 to 10 you get caught. There is probably a way to protect with options, but that’s another question for optionoracle or Bill.

My point is simply to develop a method that does not allow for these types of losses. A trader/investor will have a difficult time being successful if they do not.

GRgold, with respect to loss you said, “that is only when you sell your shares and have to start from what's left.” I respectfully suggest you re-think that statement. Regardless of whether you sell the stock and book the loss or continue to carry the position at its current value, you need X percent to get back to even. It is a case of a loss being realized or not realized and is sort of what the banks are doing today with their current predicament.

The crucial decision is what is the best possible place for my money now? It may be that stock or it may be another stock. Many times you make money by selling a loser because the loser gets worse.

Ask yourself this, for those people who lost -70% of their money in the 2000 bear market, how many do you think are now getting back to even with their original positions?

JDSU, Enron, CSCO, MSFT, the list goes on and on.

Happy Holidays to all and a prosperous 2008. T3d

Just got back into NY from a client lunch in Miami and missed the "move" in HRB. This AM Thestreet identified HRB in an article "Top Warren Buffett Short-Squeeze Plays" implying it will go up.

After the market close the website corrected themselves after realizing Warren Buffett/Berkshire have zero holdings in HRB.

http://tinyurl.com/2qtg7t
A Dec. 18 column, Top Warren Buffett Short-Squeeze Plays, misidentified H&R Block (HRB) as a current Buffett holding. The investor sold his stake in the company earlier this year. TheStreet.com regrets the error. (Corrected Dec. 18)

SOME THINGS I WANT TO KNOW:

Who sold GS today? Did they all sell at a profit? How low did they buy it at?

Who bought HRB today?

ps: I am a bit slow on comprehension of the ways of the world. TIA for any comment on these.

T3d

Losses, breakeven etc

Yes I agree this is a serious point and one many of us have problems with, I've been there done that and still have a few old positions I'm married to. But my best performance is when I'm more like a machine with rules. Now depending if you're a daytrader, swingtrader or longterm investor the time frame changes a little.

1- Purchase with some DD and allow appropriate wiggle room, I get out if it goes against me beyond my wiggle room. If it didn't go as planned something was wrong with the planning, get out first and then evaluate later.

2- Forget what you paid for it, or what your breakeven point is, you will figure all that out at tax time. Right now, daily, weekly or monthly (dependant on trading style), you got what you got, Current Capital. I don't care if its realized or unrealized, I consider it all mine right now and I want it to be trending up.

3- Evaluate each position, hold / add if things are getting better, reduce if things are getting risky and get out if its starting to go against you.

4- Sit in cash, select a different horse or maybe the same horse again but at a better low risk entry point.

Bill, thinking about you as I shoveled 2 feet of snow today, you just can't get that kind of exercise in the Bahamas, too dam hot, (wish I was down there with ya).

Happy holidays to all

ECB's mind-numbing cash injection is no magic cure

By Tom Stevenson
Last Updated: 12:55am GMT 19/12/2007

Just when you thought the credit crunch could get no more incomprehensible, along comes another mind-numbing figure. Yesterday's $500bn cash injection by the European Central Bank is so far beyond most people's reckoning that they could be forgiven for seeing it all as Monopoly money and so not worth worrying about.

That's not such an irrational response because you don't want to think too hard about what the ECB has done. By offering to lend an unlimited amount of cash at 70 basis points less than the commercial cost of short-term money, it sent out a clear message that things are so grim in the money markets that it would do anything to unblock the system. Once you've gone nuclear, no one pays much attention to your conventional forces.

http://tinyurl.com/23vwtc

moneygenie- if i had to guess, would say they sold the news on GS, and squeezed the shorts on HRB...but who really knows...(what was your reaction to selling FXP at 86 yesterday- much different perspective when viewed from today's angle ;)...

2nd,

Thanks. I think I have this "thing" with FXP..psychic??? and if I go with my gut feeling I do well. Last time I ignored it and paid the price. It's not a trading strategy at all, just sometimes I get a kind of connection with a trade.

So, the guys who sold GS made money today and those who bought HRB are the greater fools ???

I can't wait to read the "Trader Wizzard".

Shanghai closes the morning session up 2.37%...Hang Seng up >1.6%, Taiwan up 2.6% and back above 8000...

ECB influx was actually $501.5 billion...

which is almost as much as the entire world has spent on Africa... in the last 50 years!

http://tinyurl.com/3a5or8

or the entire USD asset value of all ETFs; probably more now that S&P 500 is down > 20% & people are pulling out of all asset classes

but not quite as much as the collective earnings of all Fortune 500 companies in 2006, at $786 billion, give or take inflation, mark to model & level 3 creative bookkeeping.

http://tinyurl.com/2ka2oz

"These happy numbers are largely due to a sort of harmonious convergence, a perfect economic calm"

calm before the storm...

"But the biggest jump - $131 billion - came in financial services. Five securities firms, Merrill Lynch (Charts), Morgan Stanley (Charts), Goldman Sachs, Lehman Bros., and Bear Stearns, more than doubled earnings to $31 billion, minting cash from proprietary trading, where they make huge bets on stock and bond prices with their own capital. "

Looks like they fell off the trampoline...

ECU silver to report new resource early in the new year.

http://tinyurl.com/2rf54o

For those who follow the "impulse system", GOLD stocks and SILVER stocks are now RED on both a daily and weekly basis.

This means that stocks are below their 26 period EMA's and momentum (MACD-H) has ticked down.

FYI, Barrick's Eskay Creek mine in British Columbia will close in mid to late February '08 with the last of the stockpiled low grade ore being processed. This was a very high grade producer for Barrick but in actuality should have been called a silver mine.

Hello Bill,

I sent an email to billc (at) billcara.com but it bounced back. Is this the correct address?

rugger09 -

it's bcara (at) billcara.com

BTW, did any new info about promising juniors emerge from that conference you attended at Yellowknife?

Jim Sinclair said “Trading is a zero sum game. In the end there will be one fat person and one machine left having taken all the money away from those that pride themselves as traders.”

Is Goldman Sachs the fat person that has taken the rest of Wall Streets money?

I was very impressed with Tyhee Developments (TDC) and their Yellowknife Gold property they are drilling. They have a few permit issues to solve (can't put in a camp under their permit which hamstrings their driling efforts). The REALLY interesting thing about it is that these guys found some errors in the old geologic drill data and the granites actually extend further to the north where they were thought to have disappeared. These granites trapped the hydrothermal fluids that deposit gold. It is in the Discovery Shear Zone where Giant Mine and Con Mine lived their lives. Very interesting with the exception of a fatality they just had in early December.

Shear Minerals (SRM) is another one to watch. They have found several diamond bearing kimberlite dykes in Nunavut. They are taking some bulk samples (small ones) right at the surface. It definately warrants keeping an eye on as these dykes are readily mineable. Kahuna is the Dyke that is most exciting with some very respectable grades thus far (read - economic grade). They really do belive they have found the next big kimberlite field. They may have.

Disclosure: I own neither (yet).

Thanks, rugger .... I'll fold these exciting candidates into the "juniors' project" now underway.

Cheers Jock. I'll let you know how informal conversations unfold at the various 'liquor rich' Christmas parties around town. That's the beauty of living in the midst of it.

Jock, where do you live? It's very late in most of the rest of North America. I'm guessing I'm not the only night owl, but 4.45 am comes quick.

ALOHA !!

A BLAST FROM THE PAST ...

From the FOMC meeting dated Oct 5, 1981:

ON MORTGAGE RATES
"In home mortgage markets, average rates on new commitments for fixed-rate level-payment conventional loans at sampled savings and loan associations rose to 18-1/4 percent from 17-1/4 percent at the time of the August meeting."

ON M3 GROWTH
"M3 growth range was set at 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 percent, but M3 had grown at a rate somewhat above its range."

Votes for this action: Messrs. Volcker,
Solomon, Boehne, Boykin, Corrigan, Gramley, Keehn, Partee, Rice, Schultz, and Mrs. Teeters.
Vote against this action: Mr. Wallich.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2lhjzx

Imagine that!!! Here is historical precedence where mortgage rates can be above 18% and M3 annual money supply can be close to 10% in a depressed housing market! I thought the deflation guys said this was impossible ... Hummmm ... if consumers and speculators were out of the picture back in 1981 with no bubbles and the gold/silver prices plunging I wonder who was spending and printing money at a 10% rate? Who could that BIG SPENDER be? Hummmm??? Who??? Deflation happens when our SPEND AND PRINT EMPIRE collapses not when the housing and credit market goes bust! Jeez the ECB just printed up $350bilEuros to save their banks! WOW, that fiat EURO sure is a STRONG currency! I wanna own that!! How is printing $350bilEU in one day deflation? WHEN THE PRINTING STOPS THE INFLATION STOPS! In a fiat monetary system the printing never stops until the entire system collapses.

All fiat eventually becomes totally worthless ... Why? Because all fiat is based on the human condition of bankers and their political cronies egos. POWER CORRUPTS ...

VOTE THEM ALL OUT SO WE CAN RETURN TO SANITY ...

CRAZY-A psychosis where one constantly repeats the same behavior yet expects different results.

I just defined the average US Voter ...

1981 was 26 years ago! 26 years of CRAZY ... Look in the mirror if you want to see who's paying for CRAZY!

Kaimu,
Don't forget, criminals learn from one another, so the state governments do the same thing as their federal counterparts. They take tax funds from all districts and then redistribute it with the same "control" in mind, which of course ends up being several more layers of government of, by and for someone other than the citizenry.

In this lovely state I live in a county with it's share of waterfront property. It's a poor county, but the property taxes are taken from the county, cooked up by the state, and redistributed to all the districts per student. Then those districts add local levies to fund anything above the basic funding. The basic funding doesn't pay for anything, but the poor districts are so strapped that it is life blood, so they cow tow to the state capital.

In the meantime, schoold districts like Bellevue Washingtom take the basic funding and then add the wealth of their local tax payers enabling them to offer the finest education possible while the poor dsitricts who had their property taxes "reapportioned" suffer on as substandard poor districts producing substandard poor citizens.

People....it's time to WAKE UP!!!!!

They are screwing you and your kids with your own money!!!!

If these were private citizens, how long would it take to hire one nasty and hungry attorney?

Crazy indeed!

Good morning:

Here are the U/D's to the Cara 100:

Downgrade:

EXC - to Hold @ Jefferies & Co.

New Coverage:

AMAT - Neutral @ Broadpoint Capital

------------------------------------------------

Have a great and profitable day.

BH, small addition....

GS rated a sell at Punk Ziegal and price target lowered to $200 from $210. Whoopie!

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK 2008

City experts give us their top predictions
Last Updated: 12:55am GMT 19/12/2007

GLOBAL INSIGHT: US ECONOMY HITS DANGER ZONE
Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist

The US economy is in the danger zone. GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 (0.0pc) and first half of 2008 (0.8pc in the first quarter and 1.8pc in the second quarter) is expected to be very weak.

This will make the United States extremely vulnerable to another shock. Furthermore, it is unlikely that the rest of the world will be able to shrug off the expected sharp deceleration in spending by American households.

Global Insight currently predicts that world growth will be 3.3pc in 2008, compared with 3.7pc this year. With the potential for housing crunches in some European economies and a post-Olympics slowdown (or even bust) in China, the risks for the global economy are now overwhelmingly on the downside.

http://tinyurl.com/28desc