Isaiah- QID/DXD closing in on your respective basis in each->might cut exposure here also if your position sizes are still excessive, or if you’re interested in diversifying back into FXP/EEV- short-squeeze week of December 2nd had me on the defensive, but now looking to press the short side as indexes in Asia start to break down (there will be plenty of times where you find yourself re-entering higher, but that’s part of the game...how many games have you played/watched where you lose the ball and watch them take it the other way->correct attitude is to focus on getting it back, which sometimes leads to your most memorable wins)...

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Scottrade server completely down, no web server, no java, no web site.

My IBKR ACH debit and credit cleared my acct and I'm just a few days away from a functioning Interactive Brokers acct. and saying so-long to Roger Rhiney and the disaster known as Scottrade.

You know, when someone has a bad experience with a merchant, they tend to tell seven other people. I wonder how many people will read this? I hope a lot more than seven. I hope they listen.

On the morning of a big down day you need your broker to function...... at least minimally, or the phones should fully staffed.

craig- open does not appear bad at all (GOOG/RIMM/AAPL should open flat to positive)- but that helps to set up a close that could be much worse...

Good morning from a slowing-down-for-Xmas-holidays Cape Town.

Phew - what a tumultuous week! I have posted my regular weekly article highlighting some memorable / thought-provoking quotes from market commentators during the past week, and briefly reviewing the week’s market action on the basis of economic statistics and a performance chart.

The past week saw an avalanche of bearish reports and for the first time since the start of “Words from the Wise” three months ago not a single positive item regarding the US economy/markets made its way into the article. (This should normally start flashing a signal to contrarian investors, but I'm in no hurry.)

Here is the link to the "Words from the Wise": http://tinyurl.com/3ys3qg

Thank you 2nd...you must know what it feels like to be disconnected, esp when you go to bed and wake up seeing the international indices in the RED.

Hopefully the IT guys find the issue.

Craig,
One thing that I have noticed with my broker, Ameritrade, is that they are never down and fills happen even in fast markets. I think that is because their trading fees are higher and many traders have migrated to other lower cost brokers like Scottrade. I think that I will move some capital over to TradeStation though and not IB. The charts and available data at TS is unequaled.

2nd

Thanks for the advice... I ready to jump out of this month long trap...but guess what... I can't access my Scottrtade account! Can you believe it?

Craig

You warned me about Scottrade.

Question for the community:

Recent activity on MNTA has pushed the stock over $7 in recent days. There is no news on the stock and the only reason I can figure for the price rise is $7.50 strike options, which expire at the end of this week.

For those of you familiar with option related price moves, should I be looking to sell this week (I'm in at an average price of $5.43)? Will the stock price probably fall after the options expiration date?

Sorry if this is a stupid question. I know as much about options as I do nuclear physics.

Thanks.

No scottrade here!

pressing bets on QID/DUG/UNG...

Isaiah,
Call your local office and place the trade on the phone. Still $7 according to my local office.

Jaketh - Craig

I now have my templates but no streaming data.
You?

Still holding all my ultras. Feeling pretty good about them too. RSI was starting to run hot though. It seems to be cooling off some now.

MSCC - Short from Tues. 12/11 continuing to work nicely lower. Entry was at 23.59; now 21.82. Break-even stop in place. Initial target 20.73.

what did bill say a few weeks back- second drop usually the 'big one'- odds favor one soon...

Phhhttt....could load elite but no real data or positions.

Dear Bill and Friends,

Here I am back at the Westport library posting, because Bill, My apple and your Apple no longer get along!. I do want to tell you guys what I did last week because it was genuinely so dumb.

You need to know that normally I am so suspicious of stocks that I sell usually right at the perfect time. It's my inherent cynicism that enables this skill. People who buy from me, I genuinely feel sorry for. What is it that they say...turnabout is fair play?

Going into the Fed meeting last week I could see that the charts of some of the miners were looking good. Gammon poked up through the 20 day and I bought it. ANO (Anoorq) (thanks, Kaimu) which I bought 2 Friday's ago cheap, rallied nicely into the meeting. Heck, even my Gasco looked to be a performer. By the way, a good portion of the money I trade now was grubstaked to me by another trader/friend of mine who I chatted up on our golf course and going into December I felt I needed to compensate for a fairly uneventful November, profit-wise (I know what you're thinking...Uh-oh!). Well, eventful is exactly what I got. All my stocks rallied. TGB. ANO. GRS. GSX. And a fifth one as well, the name of which I have repressed. I had loaded up the boat in advance of a nice big rate cut for Christmas. And the problem is, I was making money, which fact further seduced me and lulled me into a mood of complacency. Basically, I was in love with the idea of having a big December. I needed a big, parabolic upmove in gold to come out of this meeting via a half point rate cut.

Never need anything in the stock market, you won't get it. In addition, I was so goshdarn in love with my need to make $ on this trade (and the fact that all 5 postions were all nicely profitable didn't help) and suffice to say, when Ben did his little cut I didn't react properly, in a manner in which you all have come to expect from me. Instead of dumping it all, I held on like a dumb____ and basically watched all my profit disappear and, tragically, and I am ashamed of myself for this, part of October's gains also. It was so bad I briefly contemplated returning to a life of crime as a salesman.

I really need to join a professional trading oraganization so that an old-timer could have told me that a quarter point discount rate was tragically disappointing and to just sell it all.
I held on thinking that when the market finally "understood" everyone would come around to my point of view. Yes I know. Hand me the pistol, I'll just shoot myself!

Bottom line, this market sucks like Bill says. I think of myself as being so cynical and yet, I haven't really been a natural short seller even though I've known that it has been for most of 07 a good safe trade in many credit-crunch industries. Now, a few days later I'm returning to my old self a little bit. The stock market is no safe place for an honest man's money, and if Americans knew the wild gyrations and backflips that their 401-K money does while they are at work they would be a lot less sanguine about this matter. As for me, I know never to fall in love, and I do. Falling in love with ideas is the worst of all. especially your own ideas. Especially the idea of being long in a stock market that clearly looks like it will not exceed it's prior highs, will probably break trend and begin Bill's long-awaited bear. Before that can happen, stocks need to decisively fail to exceed the old highs, and a lower low in the major indexes would confirm the matter.

As to the question of why my stops weren't hit, they were, at small losses all, which, considering my position sizes was just wrong. Obviously (now), if you have big profits it is moronic to set stops that will result in a loss, no matter how much you need to make $. It was extemely painful liquidating once-profitable positions at losses. Like the rest of you guys, I'm still figuring this thing out, which is difficult, because it is ever-changing. It's hard to learn to do something when the something you need to do is different each time. Anyway, in my next life, I'm coming back as a Bahamian!
Cousey, save me a stool brother!

Chris

isaiah- no access this morning could work to your advantage...i wouldn't be in a hurry to unload any of your ultrashorts right now->close may be a better time...

HRB about to kiss $17 territory on very low volume 260k shares. Imagine what it will do on 4x average volume, i predict sometime this week.

Korvus RSI zone alerts:

ETF Sell Alerts: XME, XLU, XLP, UTH, IDU (4 days ago). INP (1 day ago)

ETF Buy Zone: None

ETF AZ Zone: DCR

A few other stocks I follow:

Buy Alerts: CMCSK (2 days ago), NG (1 day ago).

Sell Alerts: DE, ARG, MO, STP, AAPL, SI, POT, BG, MON, MCD, KO

AZ: HD

Hi,

Please excuse me for being a contrarian here, but I would like to respectfuly share my point of view:

1. Bill's analysis is absolutely RIGHT. He was right from the beginning of all this mess, and we should all thank him for having shared his insight into this mess, thereby saving us all from serious financial peril.

However,

2. The timeframe for the development of the events may or may not be right now.

Why?

- The available economic data is still unconfirmed, and can be revised. Remember what happened to job numbers a few weeks ago?

- Recessions take longer than we expect to start, and much longer than we wish to finish.

What do I mean?

- That it may be the case that the market will be range trading for a while before the gates of hell open and this key resistance level around the lows of August and November cave in.

Nobody can predict what will happen.

in this light, I would recpecffully say that the assumption that this resistance level will cave in RIGHT NOW (ie, in the course of this week), is questionable, at least from a theoretical standpoint.

The market may prolong the agony of this sloppy trading for quite a while before this caving in takes place.

In my time as a trader I have learned that it is seldom that the market will behave like we expect or would like it to.

So?

If you wish to entertain the theory that the market MAY be range trading, then the upside for bearish trades here is limited, and so I would suggest that some degree of caution is exercised before selling the farm...

Please excuse my contrarian position, but these are my thoughts right now.

Cheers!

re scottrade - I have both IB and scottrade and IB had it's own share of server mishaps, just recently (couple of weeks ago) they had their system down for few hours during US trading session. I had E*TRADE as a 3rd broker but transferred funds out due to their issues. I guess I have to look for another backup broker (Ameritrade/Tradestation/Optionexpress).

On another note - does anyone know if it is possible using IB account management to generate a trade history report for specific symbol for entire duration of an account ? It is very easy to do with E*Trade and Scottrade but I did not figured it out with IB.

maromatics- thanks, contrarian points of view always welcome...my take right now is that bulls will have a hard time taking anything up with conviction (compared to the week of December 2nd)->more than a few trapped bulls, right...and of course, hopefully no one is betting the farm either way...

I cannot believe that Scottrade has been down this long. Completely unacceptable! A few weeks ago Bill asked for reports on trouble with access to brokers and accounts...This is about as bad as it could get (other than them completely losing my money).

I am not gonna wait for that to happen- goodbye scottrade

2nd

How is QID and DXD holding up?

Wow, massive buy in the XLF. Just saw a 1.3mil green bar flash up. Who in the heck is buying all that?

And another 1mil spike in XLF volume. I smell a rat.

gold seems to like sitting just below $800 while the US dollar is doings its best impression of
"dancing with the stars"

Canadian Gold Miners taking another hit with the sell-off in the TSX. a recent comment by Don Viloux in www.timingthemarket.ca made me laugh, noting how gold is breaking out in canadian dollars which should help the canadian gold miners, and yet they are still down down down way more than gold.

this is my last complaints about the XGD, im holding tight waiting for Gold to do its thing, but its painful sometimes. Jim Sinclair is pounding the table saying "this is it, take delivery on your gold shares or coins" and yet
it seems every possible thing is working against it- inflation could mean no more fed easing, gold goes down, fed doesnt lower as much as the market hoped, gold goes down....

i hope Bill your thesis that one fell swoop is
in the cards for gold before its time to consider getting back on the bus. would the puttering out of the recent US dollar rally prove to be the starting point?

thanks as always!!!

Craig - Did you see my Helmet post in Friday's discourse?

isaiah- DXD 50.50 (h/l 50.40/50.85)...QID 39.45 (h/l 39.68/39.03)->mentally pushing them up to fulfill my 'guarantee' to you LOL

Concerning gold, I have a feeling that Bill's predicted near term drop in gold to ~$700 will be due to a deflation scare early next year. Patience will be rewarded.

I picked up a partial position in GSS this morning.

I sure did! Thanks!

I couldn't find a target in so many names though.
I had a 30 million plus number for the number of helmets that will potentially be sold as there are passengers, etc.

However my broker issues are keeping me busier than I wanted this morning.

Scottrade folks...

I have data but no positions, so no trading yet.

2nd...

Thanks second for the info...

Isn't this ironic...the day I can finally spring free... Scottrade goes down.

Craig...

Same here..also my "positions" window is blank.

Can anyone tell me where you can see big block trades and by who? What resources are available for this?

Not.v on the move

Scottrade: I have data and positions finally.

Billy,

I don't have live quotes for NOT.v. Is it moving up or down? thanks

It was my fault the daily report was screwed up this morning. Sorry about that. Should be fixed now -- let me know if anything looks wrong.

Sharkie - Your little tale put me in mind of Jesse Livermore's story about the Russian sable coat--which is a bit too long to post, but the essence of which is captured in this sentence: "Why, in Harding's office one winter a little bunch of high flyers spent thirty or forty thousand dollars for an overcoat and not one of them lived to wear it."

Jesse's general summation is, I think, pertinent to the situation you've described:

"There isn't a man in Wall Street who has not lost money trying to make the market pay for an automobile or a bracelet or a motor boat or a painting. I could build a huge hospital with the birthday presents that the tight-fisted stock market has refused to pay for. In fact, of all hoodoos in Wall Street I think the resolve to induce the stock market to act as a fairy godmother is the busiest and most persistent.
"Like all well-authenticated hoodoos this has its reason for being. What does a man do when he sets out to make the stock market pay for a sudden need? Why, he merely hopes. He gambles. He therefore runs much greater risks than he would if he were speculating intelligently, in accordance with opinions or beliefs logically arrived at after a dispassionate study of underlying conditions.
"To begin with, he is after an immediate profit. He cannot afford to wait. The market must be nice to him at once if at all. He flatters himself that he is not asking more than to place an even-money bet. Because he is prepared to run quick -- say, stop his loss at two points when all he hopes to make is two points -- he hugs the fallacy that he is merely taking a fifty-fifty chance. Why, I've known men to lose thousands of dollars on such trades, particularly on purchases made at the height of a bull market just before a moderate reaction. It certainly is no way to trade."

Isaiah - For goodness sake, buy yourself a copy--and a highlighter to have in your hand while you read it! It's still in print, and in stock at your local Barnes & Noble or Borders bookstore.

shark_attack,

I made a similar move. I was doing great in November, so I got cocky any started taking much larger positions. So far in December, I've lost something like 15% of my account value, basically losing my November gains. In the kind of market we have right now, we may know the long-term direction but the short term direction changes from day to day for no apparent reason. So it's not a good time to take bigger bets, certainly without stops (I was using options, and there are some issues using stops with options).

Scottrade says trading "off" when I tried to place a trade.

Scottrade still dead here....I can get it to post a moment's worth of data....then nothing more. I have had pretty good experience with them over time...but this makes me nervous. It has happened a couple of times recently early in the day...but this is the longest that they have been down for me.

maromatics - Your thinking is in step with this quote from Jesse L. (last one for today, I promise).

"But the first time I traded because of a crisis that was still to come I found that I had been using a telescope. Between my first glimpse of the storm cloud and the time for cashing in on the big break the stretch was evidently so much greater than I had thought that I began to wonder whether I really saw what I thought I saw so clearly.

"We had had many warnings and sensational ascensions in call money rates. Still some of the great financiers talked hopefully at least to newspaper reporters and the ensuing rallies in the stock market gave the lie to the calamity howlers. Was I fundamentally wrong in being bearish or merely temporarily wrong in having begun to sell short too soon?

I decided that I began too soon, but that I really couldn't help it. Then the market began to sell off. That was my opportunity. I sold all I could, and then stocks rallied again, to quite a high level. It cleaned me out. There I was -- right and busted! I tell you it was remarkable.

"What happened was this. I looked ahead and saw a big pile of dollars. Out of it stuck a sign. It had "Help yourself," on it, in huge letters. Beside it stood a cart with "Lawrence Livermore Trucking Corporation" painted on its side. I had a brand-new shovel in my hand. There was not another soul in sight, so I had no competition in the gold-shoveling, which is one beauty of seeing the dollar-heap ahead of others. The people who might have seen it if they had stopped to look were just then looking at baseball games instead, or motoring or buying houses to be paid for with the very dollars that I saw. That was the first time that I had seen big money ahead, and I naturally started toward it on the run.

"Before I could reach the dollar-pile my wind went back on me and I fell to the ground. The pile of dollars was still there, but I had lost the shovel, and the wagon was gone. So much for sprinting too soon ! I was too eager to prove to myself that I had seen real dollars and not a mirage. I saw, and knew that I saw.

"Thinking about the reward for my excellent sight kept me from considering the distance to the dollar-heap. I should have walked and not sprinted. That is what happened. I didn't wait to determine whether or not the time was right for plunging on the bear side. On the one occasion when I should have invoked the aid of my tape-reading I didn't do it.

"That is how I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is well not to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing."

Scottraders...

Anyone getting real time data for their holdings?

Isaiah....I am able to get data about account balances......but I get no streaming data from Scottrade at this time....

Isaiah....I am able to get data about account balances......but I get no streaming data from Scottrade at this time....

re: scottrade:

Local office apparently overwhelmed, so transferred to their national call center where I listened to a recording about how they were rated # 1 in customer satisfaction - lol,

I also got position listings finally with current data EXCEPT I am missing(can you believe it) my HRB Put position.

NOT.V 4.45 latest tick I see

Dr. Cosa,

Here is the latest in weekly charts for the $C gold price:

Stockcharts.com:

This is an expression of just 'where' the $C gold price should be. As you can see its poised to breakout:

http://tinyurl.com/384duj

World Gold Council gold prices in various currencies:

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/dailyshort2000.html

Compare with the historical charts of base metals at:

http://www.kitcometals.com

Thanks, Billy. Major disadvantage not getting live prices. However, Ameritrade has been up all morning so it could be worse.

Scottrade working here now....

My local office tells me to use the web based java scottrader program. Still don't have the java applet yet....

Elite gives me realtime quotes, positions, etc. but won't let me trade, it says it's "off".

Oh, they're OFF alright.....

thx for the charts fransix,

the problem is that the chart of gold in canadian $$ has no real correlation to the behaviour of the gold miners, let alone Jr. plays.

i dont see how examining gold in any currency other than US dollars yeilds the match for canadians. on top of that it just adds to my theory that any event in the gold markets seems to be spun as a tide turning moment for gold miners to make their run when in fact it only seems to work against them.

i dont understand the concept that increased costs are killing gold companies w/ proven reserves if the value of what they are pulling out of the ground has increased far and above the costs of energy (note oil has skyrocketed but not gas in comparison, but somehow the underlying commoodity seems to work against the companies for oil and not for them with gold)

its giving me the feeling that far to many sr. golds are hedged and/or involved in their own gold version of SIV's and ABCP issues.

the plot thickens!!!

Old Goat,

Thank you.

Just so we keep in mind that other outcomes may come to being...

In the FT today: central banks may use a higher inflation target to solve the housing crisis.

http://tinyurl.com/3xh74e

Craig

It appears to me everything is coming up in stages. So hopefully it won't be long. Maybe the buying and selling part is the last stage.

dr. cosa
"Profits at gold miners could be set for a huge pop."...
http://tinyurl.com/2fjavw

HRb $17.97. Saw a big block trade 240k+ shares at 18.06 on the downtick.

Gammon Gold cash flow positive in November. Looks like the mine may be fine now that they have new management there.
Love bacon, long GRS

Uranium stocks taking a beating. LAM.to, PDN.to, dml.to, UUU.to, CCO/CCJ under $36.

thx for the article, re gold profits,

when do some of the heavy hitters announce earnings?

occam_razor
IB account mgt is not interactive and produces static reports yearly, monthly & daily. I use IB for years and update my quicken monthly and use quicken to get trans history by symbol. But quicken does not recognize options/futures symbols I tweak it.
Hope this helps

Re. BMD

Decided to wait and see.

S&P chart on Fido is screwing up. either not coming up or showing old data.

Craig,
If you wired your money instead of ACH, the funds would have been available for trading next day. IB is just trying to protect themselves from mistakes in ACH processing between banks when they try to reverse payments.

Craig---re CHSCP (illiquid preferred shares) CHS Inc. I’ll try to keep it short.

Background: CHS is an agricultural membership cooperative that does business with members and non-members.

CHSCP filed a Form S-1 on Friday. It’s a long document to download and over the weekend my laptop showed more than 200 pages if printed.

The S-1 announces issuance of 1.81 mil shares to redeem @ $45.6 in “patrons’ equities.”

Patron equities represent a right to receive cash or other property when CHS redeems them. Patrons’ equities form part of CHS capital, do not bear interest and are not subject to redemption upon request of a member. They are redeemable only at the discretion of the Board of Directors.

It appears these preferred shares will be issued at 25 plus the amount of dividend. So it looks like 25.17 at the end of January as .17 is the approximate monthly dividend total (.50 paid quarterly).

Basically, they are retiring equity by issuing preferred stock. By doing this, CHS makes cash, which they would otherwise use to redeem patrons’ equities, available for working capital purposes. The patrons are subject to income taxes, not CHS. (Those farm boys are slick).

Some of the patrons may sell their shares while others will retain the shares as they pay 8%, taxed at the dividend rate.

I still like it as agriculture business is booming. Their energy side also looks good. Seems like a decent place to receive 8% payout, with no CDO or SIV concerns!
I did talk to investor relations.

But do your own DD.

Disclosure: Long CHSCP (Not a recommendation)

The sell off in miners has been brutal, but particularly sharp for Ivanhoe (IVN). Country risk remains a factor, and the stock has retraced over 60% on its Fib (I use $5.53 in '06 as the low).

Reminds me of August all over again.

Fidelity charts - Problem not confined to S&P chart; some (but not all) other charts are similarly afflicted (AWP, for example). Suggest referencing SPY chart in lieu of .SPX until problem is rectified.

Interesting.....

Failure Beyond Finance

http://kunstler.com/mags_diary23.html

HUM......

From prieur's link earlier "...Beijing opens up spot market bullion trading and a futures contract launches early next year." First, does anyone know the exact date that this will be allowed? Second, Could this be the date that sparks the great gold run Bill has mentioned so often? And third, I am torn between thinking prices will be suppressed going into this date to provide their big players a nice entry point vs the price running up in anticipation of the huge inflow that will come.

Thank you Seamus. I'm holding these LT.
I would lower my basis if they really came at me, but the LT chart doesn't suggest it.

A bit of a deal today 24.96.

BTW, CHS, aka Cenex, was previously Western Farmers, for whom I build many, many farm buildings back in the day.

Craig Well you have the hands on experience with them. Looks like they've expanded since those days incl. some Brazilian soy operation.

L/T for me also on this one. Yes, any price below 25 looks very attractive.

Does anyone know where to find info on the Fed auction today? TIA

Ok, so the gold basis has been wide and narrow in the same day. imo, this week should see a rally in the bullion ($US). If so, then bullion prices should be firm into Q1. (this according to seasonality)

Gold juniors, especially Canadian gold juniors have not followed the $C bullion price. Thus they are undervalued. Gold is still seen as a commodity in a commodity based economy. However, if I may point out, bullion prices have remained firm while base metals are very soft.

This is precisely what a gold investor should be waiting for. As the $US strengthens temporarily, and base metals prices remain soft, and bullion prices remain firm, with perhaps the added differential of currency into the mix is a layup for bullion appreciation and thus profitability in gold mining circles, especially companies with no exposure to base metals and high grade veins which go to depth.

A role reversal between the €/$ trade and the $ is the missing piece of the puzzle here.

telenetworxx:

here is a good place to start

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/

HRB new 52week low. $17.90.

When will mutual funds sell?

Wow, HRB down to 17.91, not looking good for them today, but lots of green arrows in my account! Telenetworx, CNBC just said that the auction today will not be settled until thursday, but I'm sure some info will leak out before then.

Here it is 1:15 and I just now finished digging out my house and shop from the snowstorm in the NE. I'm not contributing much to GDP today.
Did get a chance to read a New York Times article today talking about the housing crisis in the Bronx. Titled Holidays Find Loan Crisis Spreading to Businesses and Neighbors. That is, neighborhoods are supposedly deteriorating because no one has the money to keep up their about-to-be-foreclosed house, and they are barely hanging on. And the ripple effect seems to be devastating. One interesting part is toward the end of the article where a member of a community and clergy coalition said maybe some of those Wall Street bonuses should go toward "reparations" for the hurt homeowners. I don't know what is fair, but that was a surprising word to use, I thought. It looks like mortgage brokers and bankers are getting some bad really bad PR lately. It makes me wonder if people are figuring out they may have gotten screwed, and it isn't all their fault.

Summary auction results will be published on the website of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/taf.htm) at approximately 10:00 a.m. EST on the Notification Date. Between 10:00 a.m. and noon EST on the Notification Date, Reserve Banks will notify individual institutions in their districts that have submitted winning bids of their awards. Participants have until 3:00 p.m. EST on the Notification Date to inform their local Reserve Bank of any error.

the Fed notification date is the 19th

Looks like somebody is propping up the financials. 115 points down on the dow and XLF is only down .02c.

Would explain those two huge volume spikes earlier this morning.

Old Goat, that is a great quote by Jesse Livermore. I've been checking out his book and I just read that yesterday. Boy, what a world he describes!

Hi,

For the record I would like to say here that by the end of the week I expect that we will see the broad market recovering.

My point is based on:

- The kind of moves I am seeing today in the financials,
- The fact that there seems to be too much of a bear consensus on the market.
- The fact that Friday is quadruple witching day, and since the most open interest is in short positions, I expect the market to rally accordingly.

Thank you for keeping an open mind to contrarian thinking like mine, and for letting me publish it here.

Cheers,

1452 being tested(at least if my Fido charts are right)

HRB Call today 4:15
(888) 679-8018 - Participant Passcode: 11822905

I am hoping analyst and fund mgrs call in and grill Breeden on delinquencies, tapped out credit lines, expectations moving fwd on oomc writedowns, and where the originated mortgages are right now?

Their servicing business at OOMC is bleeding money. When the home owner is late on payments, HRB still has to pay the morgtage on behalf of the home owner to the owner of the paper. This is why they are 99% tapped out of all their credit facilities. and their delinquency is up to 17.89% in 2007, from 8% in 2006. Page 45 of unaudited HRB 10q.

Denny - Just checked my memory against my hard copy of book (well-read, dog-eared and much highlighted) and see that the 2nd quote above (grabbed off a copy on the web to avoid retyping) is incorrect, in that it references the "Lawrence Livermore Trucking Corp.", whereas the book (p. 96) reads, as it should, "Lawrence Livingston Trucking Corp." The Larry Livingston character is, of course, the fictionalized Jesse Lauriston Livermore.

Maromatics -

I am with you. The last half of December is up 85% of the time. I think mid January will set up another great shorting opportunity as the market rallies on light volume.

If you are bearish you have to pick your battles very carefully in this market: risk before reward.

korvus - re your remark that "there are some issues using stops with options": It can be argued that options bought (but not those sold) carry with them an implicit stop, as risk is limited to 100% of purchase price plus one-way commission.

Rather than placing a stop based on the market price of the option itself, a preferred approach is to set a contingency stop based on the market price of the underlying index or equity. This is easily accomplished using IB's trading platform.

isaiah- i'm taking half the QID/DUG i opened this morning off here- hanging on to the rest...can't find a good (re)-entry into FXP...

Maggy,

I found your link to be a very accurate assessment of the situation from a social standpoint. My background includes a great deal of sociological analysis, so articles like this naturally resonate with me. Unfortuneately, this background does not afford for much valuable input to these valiant day traders.... the frontline warriors in the daily tribulation that is THE MARKET.

No, I stand with vantage way in the rearguard away from the action watching the battles unfold. My contributions are more long term and general. (Although I am slowly learning the art of hand-to-hand combat... thanks guys).

My comments begin where this article terminates. I would add that there will come a time in the near future when true leadership must return with a vengence. Tough and painful decisions will be made and enforced. Like sequestering a two-year-old from his favorite toy, control must be imposed upon the kiddies. The screaming tantrums will be epoch. Like parents, our resolve must be complete, and even compassionate. Those of us who recall what it means to be responsible, forthright, honest, moral, and far-sighted are charged with rehabilitating these child-like leaders.

In my opinion, if we are not up to this task, then this market will indeed be lost to a catastrophe of biblical proportions... with all attendant repercussions. We are standing at the brink where choices still matter.

I would love to hear more from others... petitions, movements, etc. that may serve to make a difference.

And yes, Kaimu, I know all about RON PAUL.

I'm waiting for the FXI to get to approx. 163 (Nov. low) and a reverse to buy it and then look for a short entry on FXP.

I think I've seen this movie before.....but watching those support levels on S&P and DJIA.

Bill, will you remove Trane from the Cara100? Looks like it's gone for $9B.

I am on the market for a new high-efficiency furnace, I was looking at an American Standard model, then Trane, now Ingersoil?

"In my opinion, if we are not up to this task, then this market will indeed be lost to a catastrophe of biblical proportions... with all attendant repercussions. We are standing at the brink where choices still matter."

Hi, I do not share in "the revenge of the apocalypse nerds."

Old Goat, thanks for pointing that out. I didn't even realize the book was a fictionalization of the real LL.

thx for the imput Bill,

i may be growing cynical as well but im more disappointed in the fact that gold producers and the like seem to pick and choose what factors are affecting their price w/ no proven metrics to bac it up.

the POG in canadian dollars means little to the movement of the XGD compared to its price in US dollars.

gas has gone up alot but not as much as oil, yet the high price of oil is cited a factor in rising production costs. what happens if crude falls back to $60 a barell, will miners go up, or fall with the energy market citing declining commodity prices....

i think something is brewing and i dont know what but the only comparison i can make of shares vs. the commodity is the canadian energy producers (XEG for their etf) vs. the price of crude oil.
they did not make their run w/ the price of crude. and blaming low nat. gas prices doesnt help because many pure oil plays still did not come close to crude's run up.

so im watching patiently to see if the miners will one day lead the POG

Bill,

Regarding your mention of the pressures facing the gold mining sector , here's part of an article by Boris Sobolev which I found pertinent.

Many gold and silver stock investors tend to focus solely on the action of gold and the US dollar. Equally important, however, are costs related to mine development and production, which have often been rising as fast as gold itself. The net effect on gold stocks has been nothing other than the hype created by investors who link gold and the dollar together with gold stock profits. And once reality sets in, it becomes evident that profits for most producers are stagnating or even falling while new mine developers are faced with prohibitive capital expenditures. This is the principal reason why every rally in gold stocks over past two years has been met with formidable selling pressure.
Energy expenses often make up about one third of total operating costs for many mines, especially open pits. As gold underperforms oil and base metals, gold miners cannot expect a substantial improvement in operations. As it is clear from the chart above, the gold/oil ratio is in a downtrend, meaning that cost pressures remain.

There are some encouraging signs on the horizon. The US economy is undoubtedly slowing, while the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revised down expectations for 2008 economic growth in almost every country around the world. One of the first symptoms of slowing growth is the current decline in base metal prices.

In this environment, it is doubtful that oil prices will rise any further. On the contrary, speculative demand will subside and oil should level out or even fall. This will cause a long-awaited stabilization in mining/development costs. We believe this will happen in the coming year, and gold stocks will regain their leverage against gold and outperform the metal to the upside. This is not the time to let fear take over. Those investors that stay patient will reap bigger rewards since the longer the consolidation period lasts, the stronger the next advance will be.

Boris Sobolev
Denver, Colorado
www.ResourceStockGuide.com

2nd

FXP took off on me today. By the time I got on with Scottrade...it was up 5+pts...

Are you still looking for a sell at the end of the day?

maromatics, may I ask you, what is your assessment now of the SPX , now at 1449? Seems that 1490 was again decisively broken once again. I have not really seen proof that it makes sense of doing TA on it.

Bill
re: "I think your 'huge pop' interpretation of a general discussion by an industry CEO is quite a stretch."

Actually, that wasn't my "interpretation." It was a direct quote from the article. I offered no interpretation.

I certainly value your input, and I do welcome all points of view on the subject. Thus I posted the link for dr. cosa, as it related to a query he made in his prior post.

Fransix,

I did not coin the term "Financial Armageddon." To be sure, this is a very controversial statement. But financial catastrophe may take many forms. As a health care professional, I am in the front lines in my own right. IF the economy were to turn into a deep recession, as seems to be quite possible even in terms discussed on this site, the VERY REAL implications to millions of Americans would be catastrophic. We would have socially-mandated care at that point. And this amidst a background of financial and social hardship not experienced by this generation. Very tough decisions would be implemented as to the triaging of patients.

For instance: "No, Fransix, your father cannot receive the care that he needs because by the criteria handed down from the Ministry of Healthcare and Medicine, your father is beyond the expected lifespan for the American citizen and would be taking much-needed resources from a younger and more robust citizen.... Uh, certainly you can seek healthcare outside the US. Try India, I here they have a very reasonable free-market cardiology service.... although the trip might kill him.... Good luck."

KRY just broke below $2.

What a sad, sad story.

ALOHA !!

astral25 ... What Boris says is very pertinent, since the goal of any business is to show a profit. If you can't keep your head above water then you may as well not be in business.

Tha capping of the gold price has caused a great deal of pressure on mining company bottom lines. Then add in the "hedging" that most majors held onto for too long and some are still holding. Its a sort of squeeze between rising operation costs and limited upward movement in the POG. Some of you are looking at the POG and saying to yourself. "Hey, its up a lot this year!" Yet it is not in real terms, since the 1980s high of $850, gold would have to be closer to $2,200USD to be equal to the purchasing power of a 1980s USD. The FED and those in charge at the US Treasury know this and it is not news to global central banks either, nor is it news to Goldman Sachs. This is what they want ...

A lot of major mining companies are struggling to squeeze a profit out of less than a 1g/t Au and they have already mined their higher grades to survive the last 25 years of low spot prices. These guys are tapped out of high grade large deposits. I am working on an article all about "Micro Mining" and a return to profit first, which is centered on past producing high grade deposits that the majors deem too small or uneconomical to fit their criteria. That leaves smaller miners and junior explorers to pursue this direction. I believe it is the next up and coming focus in the junior sector and those companies who realize that first will profit the most in the long run.

Most definitely the "squeeze" is on ...

HRB dropping to 17.60's, thousands of 17.50 puts traded today (sold my 20s and bought more 15s todays).

HRB has worked for me. But not a time to be cocky here. Sold 50% of my initial investment (my jan puts up 100%) and letting the rest run.

next support level is $17.29. But I am suspecting it go lower in the near term.

Started scaling into a new ultralong emerging markets (tracks ADRE) position at eod today. I'll keep a close eye on this one - it's got good support just below - if that breaks on a closing basis I'll drop the position - if not then I'll continue to add.

Dave

Isaiah,
I would be selling at least a portion of FXP with FXI at 163+/-

Anybody else notice relative strength in retailers today? JCP +3.8%, KSS +1.5%, WMT +0.7%, WAG +1.1%.

Craig.......
I sold all of FXP a few days ago.....

So you looking for a turn around in FXI?

I'm playing both sides leaning now to further breakdown in FXI

Thank-you, MtnGntx.

In my country they implemented universal health care over and above the American Medical Associations furious attempts to scuttle it. (they're still trying) Wikipedia.org has some good articles on Tommy Douglas and the history of Canadian universal health care.

But I share in your point of view that a larger portion of society will be left out in the cold when it comes to health care.

Take Care,

FranSix

PPT must be in the Bahamas with Bill.

TIO Operations:

Anybody desirous of daily input about TIO operations can always refer to=>

http://www.nowandfutures.com/daily.html

F6

NYUgrad,

Are you going to listen to the HRB conference call? If so I'm looking forward to reading your comments here after the call!

bill
Thanks for the apology--very gracious of you but it wasn't necessary. The good thing is the post elicited a succint view of your thoughts on the problems facing miners, which is always most welcome.

I am on hold now waiting for start. I am off to a meeting immediately after but at this point whats left to say? The stock is tanking. the co is out of capital and they need more loans or issue more shares to stay in business. Defaults/delinquencies continue to rise. IRS may delay Tax returns for early filers which hurts HRB's bottom line. Downgrades are inevitable. Volume doubled in the last hour to the lows of the day. 52 week low taken out. those are all facts.

There may or may not be more writedowns and restatement of earnings in the future. And delinquencies will start to accelerate even further in 2008.

Fransix,

My girlfriend is from Toronto. So, I have the perspective from both a citizen of that system and as an healthcare insider hear in the states. From what I've seen, your system is very admirable and will hopefully provide some much needed guidance to those of us here in the US.

Most people do not understand that the scenario I outlined already exists here in the US between the haves and the have-nots. Despite efforts by the media and the AMA to characterize things otherwise, we are ALREADY in dire crisis mode... hospital closures, HMO closures, Reimbursal denials, mounds and mounds of paperwork related to Medicaid and Medicare,unfit patients being dumped onto the streets to fend for themselves, and a burecratic morass of stagnancy that would make the staunchist Leninist blush. We spend more money per capita on healthcare and rank somewhere in the 30's among national life-expectancy and a stagerring 60 something with respect to infant mortality.

It will only deteriorate further under recessionary pressures. Sane minds must prevail. The consequences of capitulation are unthinkable.

Hi,

What an impressive close. The only real questions seems to be if the August / October minimums will hold....

Moab,

Let's wait and see. Nobody can foresee what will happen.

Bill,

Thank you for your kind words: they make me feel more responsible for trying to create some value that is useful to the community.

Sio2,

1490 is history now. It failed. It will be a resistance on the upside when tested again, even if the test only takes place several years from now.

1460 is gone too.

The only remaining support now for bulls is at the lows of August / November, and that is where we are headed. That is more or less 3% lower than we are today.

My opinion you already know: I will be buying the broad market if, as and when we reach these levels and it appears to everyone that the gates of hell will be opening.

Make no mistake: I do believe that the gates of hell will open. But I do not believe that they will open right now.

By the end of the week we will have a clue.

Cheers,

astral25 at December 17, 2007 2:53 PM

I noticed that the gold:oil ratio had been in a downtrend since 1999 but broke out in Oct 2006 and has been testing the downtrend since.It is a fairly positive looking chart for gold imo.

Otherwise I am not convinced that goldminers go up because of financial viability as much as they do because of fear of a recession per the yield curve. Perhaps oil stocks move up during the economic expansion per the yeild curve falling? Maybe I don't have this right but it looks to me that the momentum in gold stocks was more of a factor than the viability and the momentum may have been sparked by the yield curve?. Of the four impulsive runs the hui has had since 2000 I also noticed that the $usb was falling for the most part as the gold stocks ran higher and during those periods the status of the usd did not seem to be of as much importance to them.
dyodd etc,just my observations.

http://tinyurl.com/2y5l5b

I am confounded by the lack of interest in the gold stocks,one of my holdings announced 31 m of 6.9 gpt(etc) today and ended flat. The xgdto:gold ratio at 7 yr lows seems overdone, but I am a relative newbie and learning the hard way....

Tbar, welcome to the gold markets.

"Call 1-800-Hope, that's 1-800-Hope"...desperation?

MtnGntx: "It will only deteriorate further under recessionary pressures. Sane minds must prevail. The consequences of capitulation are unthinkable."

Well said! I take the opinion that it will be not unlike an inundation, using New Orleans as an example.

Update: we posted a few days back that the market's technicals had gone from neutral to slightly negative and warned that if things continued to deteriorate that that the market's upside would be capped. last 2 trading days have moved the technicals to decidedly negative which means the downside is in play.

if the market declines another -3% or so, we will be publishing a new research report on the GlobalMarkets' website. Stay tuned!

http://www.2globalmarkets.com

isaiah- no, never got a good price on FXP...still holding QID/DUG minus the portion i took off earlier...remember, it doesn't matter what you did or didn't do today->if you worry about every stolen pass or turn-over, may as well hang up your shoes now...

Man the CC thus far is worthless. they have not said anything new. but they attribute future growth to a 36% interest bearing 'payday loan' to i would assume low income customers. wealthy customers #1 dont go to HRB and dont take out a $500 loan at 36% interest! Wow. get out of 1 subprime mess to get into another!

un-real!

The meat of the call will be in the Q&A.

Volume just hasn't been that impressive during these down days. It almost seems as if the little guys are selling and the big guys are holding. Even with the supports taken out today, I still think we need volume to pick up substantially in order to test the lows before the end of the year. And how about the 64B? That has to go somewhere.

Of course, I'm still betting against HRB but I think the rest of the market will start going up soon and test it's old highs.

Rob.

HRB will be financing its headquarters building to raise cash, how big is their building?

Q&A is starting. 1st caller is an HRB employee. LOL

Si02,

http://tinyurl.com/2wefom

Thursday, December 18, 2003
Block picks Downtown for $120M HQ

I wasn't able to start running until my weight was down around the 220s or so. It killed my knees starting off. I had to wait two days after every run for them to heal up enough to run again. Once I started running consistently though I was dropping at least 2 pounds a week like clockwork. Got down to 182lbs. When I started weight lifting along with the running I went up a bit to 192lbs. Now I run 2-4 miles 3-4 days a week. Most I've ever managed in one run was 9.2 miles(and I paid for it for a week).

After I lost 132lbs some of my co-workers started calling me Bonez. In case no one has figured it out yet, Bonez spelled backwards is Zenob. ;-)

Bill
I was going to wait to buy the book later because I didn't want to pay the $20 for shipping,(if you order a couple of books Chapters throws the shipping in) but I decided that you had already bought the book for me with the info on not.v.
Thanks

And by the way I eagerly await a seminar in the Bahamas, of which I will attend...just a suggestion , see if you can make it tax deductable.
:)

craig/isaiah- for future reference- if i had jumped into FXP at the open today (instead of QID)->even with the 6% gap at the open, gains would have been 65% higher with FXP->that is one potent ETF...

Hello guys,

2nd_ave, Please don't mention FXP.......
I bought it pre mkt.@84. but sold it in the pm @86.61, because I did'nt think it would hold. Besides GS earnings tom. might do magic.

I have a headache and must find that hypnosis CD to keep me from second guessing myself. Maybe I should just remove FXP from my watch list, There's something about it and fear for me........ now that's an insight !!! I'm afraid of the thing.

So, who is holding Goldmansucks calls?

Craig, did you jump in FXI??

The powers that run the markets might be angling for one more hurrah before the run for the exits.

http://tinyurl.com/3coe8g

"Emergency help for financial markets entered new territory on Monday night as the European Central Bank announced it would on Tuesday offer unlimited funds at below market interest rates in a special operation to head off a year-end liquidity crisis."

Like Kaimu says, never underestimate any government's ability to debase their currency for short-term gains in the Fiat money system.

Something else kind of funny I've been thinking about is imagine how many "professionals" out there are holding and riding down these CDO and SIV investments. But now we can laugh at them the same way they always laugh at "the little guy" for buying and holding.

The only thing that wouldn't make it funny is if we do get stuck paying the bill as Paulson announced in a speech today that he, like Bernacke, supports allowing Fannie and Freddie to buy mortgages up to $1Million. Talk about unlimited funds available!!! The europeans still have something to learn from Paulson about sticking it to the taxpayers if this policy goes through.

Cheers everyone!!

Rob.

taiwan is down 2% to 7650->from the high of the year back to where it started the year in 6 weeks...

I have April Goldman Calls.

I don't think Goldman will disappoint in the same season they're paying out twice the GDP of Jamaica in executive bonuses, but I don't have the farm bet on it since they could short the market knowing they will disappoint.

And, like Bill says, the technicals do look very bad so I'm mainly in cash!!

Rob.

moneygenie- you made 3% in 5 hours today? i think you made a great move and the CD track you should be playing is:

You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes, well you might find
You get what you need ;)

2nd
"if i had jumped into FXP... gains would have been 65% higher with FXP->that is one potent ETF..."

I know from persoanl experience!

I sold my FXP 3 days ago @77.75 [for a small profit] after being down as much as 12pts at one time. So this baby can swing big time either way.

My opinion remains negative on HRB. The fact they can get an equity loan (ironic!) against their HQ is a good thing. They dont have a mortgage on it now which is great and will buy them some time.

But the servicing business will continue to cause huge losses, late payments on the loans will increase in 2008. The pending delay with IRS AMT is a big negative short term, but could be a net positive long term. which would delay cashflows, which HRB cannot afford.

The OTS requirement was downplayed for sure but remains a concern.

Technically the stock wants to go lower. It is under it 30/50/200 day moving avg, support levels of 18.01, 17.60 were broken on the same day as a new 52 week low.

I think the stock goes lower. It may not gap down like i thought/hoped tomorrow but we are also in a bear market and a super bear for financials.

moneygenie

Wants some company buddy?

I got caught holding FXP when the SP took off more than 250+pts on that dreadful day @3:11PM. For weeks I suffered watching it drop as much at one time 12 pts. Then 3 days ago it when green on me. So when it started to fall back I unloaded it. No way was I getting trapped again. Then 30 mins later it took off. Today it closed at 88.99 up just over 11.24 pts. I'm sure 2 days from now it will make par.

"Oooooooo the humanity...........!"

NYUgrad,
With just 7 or so trading days remaining in 2007, you may get your wish on HRB. Tax loss selling may push it down to 15 or below. If that does happen, I wouldn't be surprised to see it turn around on the first or second trading day of 2008...

isaiah- maybe you can join craig on the long side tomorrow (FXI) while waiting for a decent re-entry into FXP...reference also maromatics' 1011am post->if we are in fact trading in a range, then we may shortly be right back at "oversold:"

http://tinyurl.com/3yvzkg

(in which case, of course, lighten up on your other ultrashorts)...

Bill...

Some off topic info: Tips on losing weight.

When a person drinks, the alcohol reduces their metabolism rate by 50%. So now along with their body burning fewer calories, they are now taking on the added calories from all the drinks.

Plus to make matters worst, there tend to be a lot of “high calories snacks” around where ever drinks are being served. And if they have salt on them lookout.... they will cause you to retain excess water and drink even more. And water weights 8.33 #/gal. So for every extra cup of water a person retains is like adding a 0.5 lb.

One of the best ways to lose weight is to exercise first thing in the morning to rev up your metabolism. Eat something within one hour of exercising and then eat several small meals spread through out the day. If you make your last meal of the day high in protein it will prevent you from wanting to snack at later that night. Drinks lots of water and of course avoid foods high in fat and processed sugars.

It’s a battle with your health as the prize.

2nd_ave

I took a small position in FXI a few mins before the close @ 163.10.

I was surprised when all the dust settled at the close of the day that it had closed @161.25.

I thought when the bell sounded all trading halted? I take it Scottrade must have a delayed feed?

Thanks again 2nd for all your help and encouragement. It has always been greatly appreciated on this end.

you're right->time and sales data show FXI/FXP=163.01/87.98 @ 1600...numbers change to 161.25/88.99 only around 1615...

I listened to most of the HRB call, it was quite dull. My impressions is that difficult questions were not really answered. HRB claims it will need to borrow about 80% less funding that in previous years because HRB Bank would take over lending of tax refunds. Is HRB Bank an independent entity that is able to freely borrow funds then? So who has the bad mortgage business? BTW, you can only imagine what rates or fees they will charge customers this year for paying these early refunds.

The executives tried to assure analysts that everything is well, but what else could they do? This is the critical time of year that they need to survive, it is when they do business. To acknowledge any serious issues would be suicide.

No idea what this stock will do now, but this is certainly one company not to buy.

right now it's looking pretty good->Hang Seng now in positive territory after being down as much as 500 points:

http://tinyurl.com/2fnrex

2nd

Catch up with you tomorrow.

Time for bed here. Leave for the gym @5AM. I'll short the market... but not my sleep time. :^)

This market is weak.
The following stocks are being added to the s&p/tsx composite index..Aecon, Allen-Vanguard,Gold Eagle Mines, High River Gold and Jazz Air Income Fund. That was announced late Friday, typical to readjust portfolios these stocks would see a short term rise..today they were virtually unchanged on two and down on the rest.
Maybe we will have to try and play the oversold position of some of the ones that were kicked out.
They are Angiotech Pharm, ATS Autmation Tooling,
Cinram,Cyries Energy, Gabriel Resources, Mega Brands, Qlt, Quebecor World, True Energy.
Sometimes when the index funds are done readjusting and selling some of these may go to attractive levels.
All changes effective Monday Dec. 24

LOL- another party animal...

Isaiah, 2nd,
Closing price

Yes I ran into this several years ago on the TSE, from what I remember it was called "adjustment on close".

The last board lot traded at or before 4:00PM is not always the adjusted closing price posted for the day.

Banks playing chicken with ABCP crisis...

http://tinyurl.com/33t2lj

Is this the most important financial problem facing Canada today?

1st company sells half of holdings with 30% loss on ABCP.
http://tinyurl.com/3dpyr8

2nd company to get 98% of investment back?
http://tinyurl.com/2lm43p

"You can't turn a financial toad [into a prince] by kissing it or by securitizing it or by transferring its ownership to somebody else," famed billionaire Warren Buffett yesterday told CNBC.

Isaiah,
You know your weight loss stuff. That's the most concise statement of what really works I've seen. You could sell that recipe, and the add would be longer than the "product." Really good prescription!

Here's a great Ron Paul Speech:

The Importance of Fiscal Responsibility in Government
by Ron Paul


As the year draws to a close, the battle over spending in Washington is heating up. The Democrats want to expand government healthcare, while the President has vetoed the second attempt to expand SCHIP.

The latest version of the State Children's Health Insurance Program would have expanded the entitlement program and raised taxes, just as the earlier version did and the President showed fiscal restraint with his veto.

Reducing our entitlement programs here at home is not against saving the children, as the rhetoric goes, it is about saving the country's economy. The fact is we have huge trade imbalances, massive deficits, and a $9 trillion national debt, which balloons to $60 trillion if unfunded future liabilities in social security and other promises we have made to Americans are included.

We are at a crucial point in history right now. We must think very carefully about our next moves. There is coming a time, if we continue on this path, when all that our tax dollars and government revenues will be able to do is pay interest on the mountain of debt we have compiled in the past few decades. That will mean no government programs or services of any kind will be funded, yet future generations of Americans will still struggle under a crushing tax burden with nothing to show for it. That is why fiscal restraint and common sense with the budget are so vitally important in government.

The difference now is that our printing presses at the Federal Reserve are getting worn out as we have expanded our money supply to the breaking point with yet another rate cut this week. As the dollar falls, it is losing its reserve currency status as many countries are shifting to the Euro or the Chinese yuan or other currencies. The more that trend continues, the weaker we become on the world stage. Those foreign governments and entities that enabled us to spend so much for so long are wearing thin and cutting us off.

The truth is our enemies won't need a nuclear weapon to harm us if we keep spending phantom dollars at the current rate. In fact, they won't need to do anything but sit back and watch as we spend ourselves into oblivion. Historically, empires fail because they run out of money, or more accurately, run out of the ability to spend or inflate. Unfortunately, that is exactly the direction we are headed. We need to control spending, immediately, before it is too late.

I applaud the President for his veto of the SCHIP expansion bill. It is a step in the right direction. But it is just one small step. What our economy needs right now is to go full gallop away from the tax and spend policies that have gotten us into this mess.

Dr. Ron Paul
Project Freedom

I've never heard a politician talk like him!! This guy really gets it!! Do you think people will really wake up and elect him?? It would be so great if we all did!

Rob.

Isaiah: I have the impression that the Ultra-Shorts trade until 4:15; that seems to be the final price virtually every day. Not sure why but it just seems to happen regularly.

ALOHA !!

I unloaded 500 FIAT TEA DOLLARS into the RON PAUL TEA PARTY on the 16th!!! If anyone looked at the charts it showed the average donation was $110USD and that tells me this a grassroots movement and not the $1000 per plate celebfest elite dinner the Bush's and the Clinton's are used to!

ITS TIME TO TAKE OUT THE TWO-PARTY TRASH !!!

I'm probably going to stir up a hornet's nest being as how most Ron Paul supporters tend to be a bit zealous, but I have a question. How do you guys get past the whole religious fundamentalism thing? I admit being an atheist augments my touchiness where religion is concerned, but how can you get past him saying things like "Separation of church and state is a myth" or waffling on whether or not he believes in evolution? To me that kind of thing is a show stopper.

I can agree with "some" of what Ron Paul is about, but when he goes off on these crazy tangents it's just too much for me. It's like watching Pat Buchannan on TV. One second he's talking about foreign policy and making perfect sense, the next he's ranting about the "New World Order". The bad out weighs the good.

Isaiah,
I think it (FXI) was trading until 3:30 pst (6:30 EST) when the aftermarket closes.

I too watched it drop from 163 to 161.11 bid/161.35 ask, then I signed off ST and decided to wait it out til morning.

We had a pretty decent down day, I think we get a bounce, at least temporarily. If not, I'm not worrying, small position and all.

I see Asia is mixed w/Shanghai mildly red and Hang Seng green.....so far. A lot can happen while we're getting our beauty sleep!

2nd, the moves in the four horsemen was not to be ignored either! However, once China really goes the FXP will make us very happy.

See you guys in the AM....hope ST is working....

You're not alone, Zenob. I have a significant problem with Paul's refusal to acknowledge global warming.

He adds significantly to the debate, but he is a candidate who in the end appeals to a very narrow constituency.

That said, I continue to see Ron Paul banners flying almost daily over the 580 in Berkeley on my way to work.

Finger Lakes,
I have to disagree. Ron Paul clearly doesn't get it. Cuts need to come out of defence, not out of social programs. By not providing adequate healthcare coverage and education the Rebublicans are championing the deterioration of U.S. society. Do you want to live in a third world country? Strategic social programs are asset management investments which provide a positive return by reducing costs of remediation forever. Reductions in welfare entitlements resulted in increased crime, street violence and bulging U.S. prisons. If you don't invest in health and education you'll end up with Thunderdome.

See below for Hussman's review of recent attempts to increase liquidity.

http://tinyurl.com/3ax7n2

Hulbert's on present market volatility compared to past...

http://tinyurl.com/2x6nht

Mark Hulbert on present market volatility...

http://tinyurl.com/2x6nht