The coming China crash

For more than a decade, Chinese state-owned companies have made losses and have been propped up by the banking system. As a result, these banks have an enormous volume of bad loans $911 billion at May 2006, according to a later-withdrawn estimate by Ernst & Young, which must surely have ballooned to $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion now. China's $1.4 trillion of reserves will in fact almost all be required to prop up the banking system when the inevitable liquidity crisis occurs.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/IL05Cb02.html

NYUGrad,
With all that dirt you were digging up about H&R Block, I can't believe you didn't hold your puts. Did the Bull Trap of last week scare you out? I'm holding until after earnings as that's when the really bad news will come out. And when I think the general market will really start selling off on the rate cut news. Why do you think the CEO and CFO quit so abruptly? H&R Block must be worse off than Etrade is my assumption.

There will be plenty of other plays in that sector I'm sure but this one will be great. The only thing that could screw my puts now is if somone bails out H&R Block and buys their failing mortgage business.

I also still have my RIMM puts, which are looking great as well.

Good luck everyone.

Rob.

JP Morgan downgrades the four biggest firms on Wall Street. Adding to weight on S&P this morning.

Cerberus, H&R Block Terminate Deal for Sale of Option One
http://tinyurl.com/3d4y8o

NYUGrad, you rock!

As part of Bill's site improvement plans, we are testing a system of streaming messages in real-time via skype. If you wish to be part of a test today, could you kindly email your skype userid to sio2 at nexalogic.com. The first 20 users who respond will be added to the list. Thanks.

mg- the symbol you would use appears to be NDYAS...

re- "Paulson Plan to let so-called disadvantaged US home-owners off the hook by freezing their teaser rates on mortgages, probably for five years. How this will be accepted by home-owners who dutifully completed their mortgage applications honestly and who have struggled to meet their mortgage obligations is simply beyond my comprehension."

'disadvantaged' destined to become another overused and overdefined word in the english lexicon....

Finger Lakes,

It wasnt the bull trap. I sold my jan puts on hrb because of the pending dec 11 rate cut. and hrb seems to have a rock solid support at $19. Even in the midst of ceo leaving, board member leaving, auditor leaving, cerberus non sale, $200M writedown, etc. its just sticking to the $19.

What i am now worried about is a buyout of the entire company. Someone knows something and it keeping this at higher ground. Maybe its those on wall st who want the enormous amount of Dec/Jan puts to expire worthless. not sure.

From BCA Research today:

"The rare divergence between the price of base metals and precious metals over the past few months contains both a message and an investment opportunity.

All metals are affected by their own specific supply and demand factors, and copper and gold are no exception. Copper is a barometer of economic strength while gold is a bellwether for liquidity creation. The corollary to this is that the ratio of copper to gold (CGR) reflects the interplay between economic trends and policy response. For example, the CGR plunged when central banks fell behind the deflation curve (i.e. 1992-1993 and 2001-2002) and surged when rates were normalized or policymakers were struggling to cool growth (1994, 1999-2000 and 2003). The current breakdown in CGR suggests that more liquidity is needed to reflate the global financial system and keep the economic expansion on track."

Si02 - Sounds like lot's of good stuff coming down the pike! I know that posting charts can take up a lot of band space which probably would not be a good idea where so many posts occur each day, but would it be possible to create a sub-site to the Comments where "pictures" of charts could be posted conveniently but separately. I personally use Snaggit which offers several different file types, and some types can be used without hogging a lot of space (I think). Thanks.

Hi,

Closed the calls at 3,9% profit, and am again 100% in cash.

The only reason I have made these last three posts was to illustrate the kind of situation we are left with as traders: we are reduced to very nimble trading, intraday, many times intra-hour.

Not the kind of investment we are used to do, but the only way to keep managing the portfolio adequately.

I will not make other posts like this regarding specific trades, this one was just meant as illustration, that's all.

Good risk managemment to all...

Cheers from a foggy European afternoon.

(Caraistas, as someone calls us)

Credit goes to ---> 2nd_ave

Fingerlakes,

Any ideas how and why HRB is holding up?

NYUGrad,
I admit I'm amazed at how it clings to 19 as well. I would think it would be in the low 18's or high 17's today. A buyout of the entire company could happen but I would think anyone buying it would want the stock to crash first so they can get it cheaper. But, like you're saying, maybe the mutual funds holding most of the shares are writing the puts and will hold the stock up until after expiration no matter what happens. Either way I'm holding until the 11th at least and then we'll see from there. I only have $750. on it so even if I get screwed totally it's worth the risk.

Rob.

Has anyone ever used Zecco.com? The gimmick is $10/month, no trading fees, minimum balance of $2500 for 10 trades a day or 40 per month.

The fee structure sounds very attractive to me because I trade at such low amounts, the $14 roundtrip Scottrade fee doesn't allow me to do things like scale in and out of a position.

Notice from the U.S Treasury:

I Bond purchase limits lowered: "The limit was last set at $5,000 (issue price) in 1973."

http://tinyurl.com/3a68vr

ETF's and the RSI Zones:

Sell Alerts:
USO, FXY, FXF, UDN, XLP

DZ Zones:
INP, XLU, UTH, IDU

Buy Alerts:
UUP - 7 days ago
UYG - 5 days ago
XLY - 5 days ago
XLF - 5 days ago

All Sell and buy alerts shown above are all winners, meaning if you would follow the sell or buy alert you would be 100% on those trades.

Hey...How bout that bank run in FLORIDA?

Anyone think that can spread to other states or are we to believe this is a FLA issue only...

MY BET .....SPREADING LIKE A CALIFORNIA WILDFIRE....Developing...

Bank run== investment pool run

Bush press conference: my god, how could the American people elect a man this profoundly stupid two times in a row?!

jk, there are pigs so bloated in that market that i do not know how they stand up. maybe because they keep it eating the short sellers money. American investment houses contribute by continuing to bleed money from native industry to foreign competition. There is a political dimension here, however that may not be played out until the commander in moron is expunged from office. When Hammerhead Hank and Mitt the Romney candidate have made their mark by upsizing China at America's expense, it is difficult to know when this upside down world will be righted. Still, besides the FXP, there are sows ready for slaughter disguised as stock symbols jrjc, bidu and ej. jmho, and not investment advice - these pigs breathe fire, so wear asbestos as well as a garland of garlic bulbs around your neck.

number 2, apparently you have never attended a municipally funded school in America. There is a continuum from the curriculum to the Shrub in Chief, right there.

number2son,

My thoughts, exactly.

One would almost think that his family must be closely aligned with the oil and banking industries or something. :^)

Sio2 & spot - at December 4, 2007 9:57 AM

RE charts & CBrowser

Spot
I to would like to see the option to add charts in posts. Agree it would use bandwidth and disk space on Bill's server, however that's only if the images are stored and served from there. Most blogs and discussion forums only allow embedded links to images, ie the post only contains the image address, its your own browser processing and bandwidth that goes out and retrieves all the pieces from various servers. This does require a simple learning of how to upload charts to one of the free image server sites and then inserting the code into a post, takes about 10 mins to set up and learn.

Si02
Checked out your CBrowser last night, very impressed. However could you add a setting to change the font size, semi-retired middle aged guys like myself need a little larger print. (no rush, just on the wish list).

thanks

basketguy
Investment pool run in Florida is a wildfire;
spreading to its own Florida Retirement System.

Montana has a similar pool that contains ABCP.

There are school boards right now unable to meet payroll for their teachers because of this in FL,
teachers who have mortgage payments.

btw,
anyone grabbing a bit of UNG sub 35?

To: 2nd Ave

UNG- selling the lot purchased this morning at 35.75...selling half the calls at 2.80...

Speaking of bacon. 2nd Ave - Thanks for saving mine with the above heads up yesterday.

bwl re:
Posted by: bwl at December 4, 2007 10:07 AM

I just started into this whole world of trading, and was lucky to stumble onto Thinkorswim.com.

No setup or management fees, simple flat ($9.95) or per share commission (min $5) structure, loads and loads of tools, easy & powerful trading interface, super nice, professional peeps for support. Very positive experience so far.

Bill, the jabberers on finance tv keep on about liquidity, when the issue is solvency. There is now way that the USA can keep its obligations without huge injections of foreign capital and subsidized imports of goods and labor, unless they raise taxes significantly, while cutting military and fiscal spending. That would put is into a deepcession. The LIBOR is 221 points over the three month Treasuries. Hammerhead Hank is going to have about as much success here as he has had with the MLEC triumph. The hedgepigs and others of their ilk think they will ride this out in China, India, Russia, Brazil, the Moon. I have a place they can go.

In case you missed last nights Kudlow and Co. Uber-Ostrich Jerry Bowyer, whom my face scrunch's at more than Luskin, was tag teamed into submission by Jimmy Rogers and Joe Battipaglia.

It was really great. My favorite part was when Rogers you haven't been doing your homework young man.

http://tinyurl.com/229zk2

2nd - Any thoughts re UXG @ 2.93?

bwl: RE: zecco. I don't have any experience with them, but there is this from Yahoo, where someone asked the same question. I don't know if it's true, or not:

http://tinyurl.com/28ryj8

Bill

With your vast experience in dealing with mining stocks, do you have an opinion on what is happening to UXG?

Dang, that would have been worth tuning in.

Joe was converted by Barry Ritholtz about a year ago saying Joe was his contrary indicator. Next thing I knew Joe was as bearish as Barry.

Getting Jim Rogers and Battataglia together would have been worth having to tolerate that knot-head Kudlow.

Isaiah,
Watch XAU/GDX. Read Bill's daily on the miners and POG.

Craig

I have ... but it doesn't tell me why UXG has been in free fall as compared to the other miners...if it does then I am not seeing it. Maybe someone here in the group can interrupt it for me.

If Florida's government investment pool problem does spread to other states, besides owning physical gold, are CDs & T-bills considered havens?

amazing Utilities making new all-time highs - appears people are moving towards traditional safe haven, although I don't think the utes are what they utes to be ...

Isaiah, back in early October, UXG released a report on its initial exploration of its Nevada property. The results were "tepid" and McEwen expressed his disappointment. That was the beginning of the sell-off. That it has become so extreme suggests to me that there is more bad news in store.

It can't be stressed enough that, no matter what you think about the long-term prospects for a stock, you need to set stops to protect yourself against declines likes this. I took a loss in WGW myself this week - even though I like the company and its position, in the end it comes down to risk management and preservation of capital.

Posted by: calvino at December 4, 2007 10:28 AM

Calvino, Re: above post,

I'm quite slow on the uptake. Please reprase to explain some more of your idea ?? Thanks much.

If you care to read, : http://tinyurl.com/2ezyuk

then tell me that your view is totally opposite I will get it.

U.S. on Sale! Who's Buying ... by Tony Sagami 12/4/2007

http://tinyurl.com/2ezyuk

Excerpt: “Consumer Brands: China is seeking to control the markets that it currently manufactures for. Three recent examples:
Haier Group, China's largest home-appliance maker, tried to buy Maytag for $1.3 billion.

Lenovo Group bought IBM's computer division for $1.75 billion.

Chinese consumer electronics firm TCL Corp. purchased the television business of French manufacturer Thomson SA (along with the rights to the RCA logo).

Now, it's impossible to know exactly what company will be the next target of a sovereign wealth fund. But I do think the areas above will remain hotbeds of activity.
I also think this trend is yet another reason to invest in Asia, and China in particular. These countries are holding all the cards right now, and they'll benefit from buying up valuable assets at fire-sale prices.

So whether you prefer mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, or individual stocks, consider adding a little Asian spice to your portfolio. I think you'll be very happy you did.

XAU/GDX weak...higher expenses/lower margins.
UXG released not so good results a while back, so if miners are down, marginal miners (or those perceived as marginal, with lower reserves or released poor exploration drilling results) are down more in this environment.

HERO scraping bottom.

re: UXG

I think the recent cliff dive might have more to do with a recent SC 13D/A filing by NovaGold. I will let someone with more expertise try to explain the significance.

number2son

I knew about the "tepid" results that started this decline. I hope you are mistaken that this sell off could be due to more bad news which could be coming. But something inside, tells me you may be right. As for stops, it's way too late for that, I'm in too deep now. My basis is 5.3

Thanks for your input. Just trying to make sense of all this.

UXG
On another board to was supposed that the expensive "infared method" that was deployed to find deposits by another company was a last ditch effort to find what they were looking for. Maybe that has turned up nothing. No position.

RE:UXG

I took the most recent announcement of a partnership to use DIAGNOS technology to identify drill targets as a confirmation that no desirable results would be released in the near future.

Re UXG, I'm under also. Trading volume on Amex today is about 600,000 shares and on the TSE it is 70,000. The company float is 40 million shares. That doesn't mean that it won't keep going down but, not everyone is jumping overboard.

Bull Hunter

Thanks for the heads up on HERO.

Anyone looking at NOT.V again on the recent dip? I am hoping to buy back some shares sub $4.60 CAD. We shall see.

Isaiah, I know NOTHING about UXG as a company. But looking at the chart on UXG it appears to me that there MAY be some support in this general area from Dec 2005. However, if this level gets pierced, then I really don't see any strong support until $1.50-ish back in April 2004.

Since I know nothing about this company, I hesitate to give advice, however there appears to be a lot of "air" under the present price. If I were in this one right now, I'd take my loss and be ready to re-enter long if it turns up. Hoping that it won't pierce down this current price level is a gambler's game.

Isaiah64v4 said:

"As for stops, it's way too late for that, I'm in too deep now. My basis is 5.3"

It's never too late to stop a loss, IMO. Some use 7%-10%, others 20%; but a loss is a loss. Better to move on with the capital that is still left than hold on to a losing position.

It all depends on your investment objectives, time horizon, and your risk tolerance.

Disclosure: Long UXG

Speculation plays:
If one looks accross the board, you can see that the old standbys like JSDA, PEIX, and many more are at bottoms and going lower. People are just getting out and going to cash; year end tax selling. The question that I ask myself before I buy anything anymore is this. Would "geo34" or the former "tradesman" consider applying dollars to these stocks? I don't think so. That has started to keep me from clicking the buy button.

Re UXG: Isaiah, correct my prev post - it appears support in the $2.00 range from Oct-Nov 2005.

Re:UXG

I read about the DIAGNOS and the firing of the CEO...but it seems like something else is driving this stock downwards. I guess somebody must know something for people to be selling like they are.

If I had a small or moderated postion I wouldn't be all that concerned. But this is why I asked if anyone knew why UXG was dropping.

UXG:

Here is a chart of UXG from Jim Sinclair's site.
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5540_Charts031207-9.pdf

It broke support yesterday and the selling intensified afterwards.

"Indeed, in the last two decades, corruption in India has shifted from the "retail" level, whereby petty officials extracted bribes from average citizens, to the "wholesale" level, where groups of officials extract fewer but larger payments from companies with deep pockets."

Of possible interest to investors in India, from Forbes:

http://tinyurl.com/2gc6b6

DaveB

2.00 wooooooooooow........

The basement....... well I hope it stops there rather than at 1.00

genie, the shares I mentioned are trading at fantastical multiples that are pricing in 20-30% profti growth. I would not count on it. I can not call a turn in share prices - finance is filled with generic thinkers who latch onto a vitiated idea. As long as only 49% or less of them are trading on it, the idea is considered alpha and novel. Now, I would propose that 90% of them are trading on it, so we are in the musical chairs phase. There may be upside, but I would say the downside is much greater. The tides have shifted and China's mercantilist, beggar thy neighbor trade policies are due for a revision. Merkel, Sarko mean a new European policy. The German steel unions are pressing hard, and they are not the emasculated ghost of a labor movement we have in the USA. Witness Sarko and Trichet's comments on their junket two weeks ago. Rudd and the Labor party mean the end of MBA politics in the Antipodes, and the chances of Rio Tinto going the way of the MIddle KIngdom are nugatory. The last MBA tard in chief is the one and only Shrub, and he has already bankrupted his subjects, so no use beggaring him. I look for a signal event in situations, and the Middle Kingdom's bid for Rio, is that one reach too many. Just my humbel opinion.

Bill, I realize this is a lot of space but no need to archive, pls.delete at end of day. It was emailed to me so can't get a link. I think it is a good piece of heartfelt kind of writing and hope that some could learn from it.I think he's a nut but a smart guy.Y ou won't get the piece on the link below. I posted it just to give credit.

http://www.stockpickgurus.com

"A box can hold many things."

"An Investor's Story" chronicles one American investor, David Jones', reflections and reminiscences of mainstream wallstreet, and the mainstream media, who colluded to defraud the American public from 1998 to 2000. Despite the white-collar crimes committed by wallstreet and the media, the investor found it hard to judge them the way one might expect.
The worst imaginable nightmare for most investors is to discover that they've lost it all in a trade gone bad. For David Jones, the discovery that wallstreet and the media, his sources of information about what to buy and sell, had ruined so many other people's portfolios is what turned his life into an unimaginable nightmare. Wallstreet and the media had stolen the money of millions of Americans, sent some into bankruptcy, and, toward the end of this decade, even begun to pay themselves huge bonuses after so many lost so much. It is to those millions of Americans and their families that David Jones has dedicated "An Investor's Story" - a hauntingly self-reflective and, at times, even clinical autobiography of an investor who couldn't see the monster he helped create. Some have charged that in writing this book, David Jones has exploited the media and wallstreet's crimes for profit. Here, several selections from "An Investor's Story", published by William Morrow this month, that help you decide for yourself:
On the day before the media and wallstreet began to announce we were in a "bear market", I drove to my broker's office to find out what I should do with my portfolio.
My broker had files scattered across his desk, but as I looked around, I found a box with the words, "D. Jones" across the top.
"What's in here?" I asked.
"Nothing."
"Open it up," I said to my broker.
He didn't move. I could see that he was agitated, but carefully controlling it. His nervousness confirmed what was then my suspicion. I demanded that he open it.
"But why, David?" my broker asked. "There's nothing in it."
"Open it."
My broker suddenly grew very alarmed. "There's nothing in the box. Do you have to look through everything?"
"I want to know what's in the box," I said firmly. 0
My broker did not move to open it.
I turned to open the box myself.
My broker leapt in front of me. He whipped out a commission check I had written only the day before and ripped it up. "I don't want this if you can't trust me to manage your money."
I stared at him silently, and my broker very quickly calmed himself.
"You're right, David," he said quietly. "It's notes and records I keep, that kind of thing. But just leave it for now, OK? It's boring and out of order. I'll open it for you next time you visit my office, I promise." He walked into the other room and tucked the box beneath his arm. "I'll open it the next time you visit," he said, as he disappeared into the the next room.
The next morning, as the media began to report we were officially in a "bear market", I went to see my broker again. He returned with the box. He took a key from his pocket and opened it. "See?" he said.
I glanced down in to a stack of documents I signed when I opened my account in 1999.
"File that that stuff before my next visit. I don't want those lost," I told him.
"OK, David," my broker said obediently, then he closed the box and returned it to the other room.
. . . Much later . . . I learned that while his firm was selling their own shares of stocks I and other investors owned, that the box he'd refused to open had contained a list of stocks I owned that were on the "junk" list. In fact, one of their analysts referred to my stocks as "pieces of shit".
Initially, of course, I couldn't believe that it was my broker who had done the things the SEC had accused him of. How could anyone believe that his broker could do such things? I had been in the actual places where they said he had done them. I had been in offices and meeting rooms which at other moments, according to the investigation, had been nothing less than a front to sucker people into stocks and a market that were clearly ready for a disastrous slide. I had looked in my broker's resume and and seen only glowing reviews and smiling client photos. I had leaned casually on the black table they claimed my broker had used both as a workplace to plan the stocks I would buy and where the conference-calls took place that discussed how they'd explain our losses to us and keep our business going forward. How was it possible that all of this had been hidden from me - not only the horrible lies, but the dark nature of the men and women who had committed them, these brokers and media I had turned to thousands of times, and whose faces, when I glimpsed at them in the newspapers, looked like mine?
NOW, FOR THE RED PILL:
Okay, from the REAL book review:
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-15409039.html
'A Father's Story' chronicles Lionel Dahmer's reflections and reminiscences of his son, Jeffrey, a serial killer. Despite the gory crimes committed by his son, the elder Dahmer finds it hard to judge Jeffrey the way his accusers have.
The worst imaginable nightmare for most parents is to discover that one of their children has been murdered. For Lionel Dahmer, the discovery that Jeffrey Dahmer, his son, had murdered so many other people's children is what has turned his life into an unimaginable nightmare. Arrested at his Milwaukee apartment in 1991 and sentenced to 957 years in prison, Jeffrey Dahmer had taken the lives of seventeen men, dismembered many of them (storing body parts in the basement of his grandmother's house and in his own refrigerator), and, toward the end of his bloody career, even begun to cannibalize his victims. It is to those seventeen men and their families that Lionel Dahmer has dedicated A Father's Story - a hauntingly self-reflective and, at times, even clinical autobiography of a father who couldn't see the monster he helped create. Some have charged that in writing this book, Dahmer has exploited his son's crimes for profit. Here, several selections from A Father's Story, published by William Morrow this month, might help you decide for yourself.
On the day before Jeff was scheduled to be sentenced for child molestation, I drove to my mother's house in West Allis in order to accompany Jeff to his court appearance.
He had packed most of his clothes, but as I went through his room, I found a small wooden box with a metal rim. It was about one foot square, and its lid was tightly sealed and locked.
"What's in here?" I asked.
"Nothing."
"Open it up, Jeff."
He didn't move. I could see that he agitated, but carefully controlling it. His nervousness confirmed what was then my suspicion. I had previously found a few pornographic magazines, and I suspected that he had stored others in the locked wooden box. Since I didn't want my mother to happen upon such things, I demanded that he open it.
"But why, Dad?" Jeff asked. "There's nothing in it."
"Open it."
Jeff suddenly grew very alarmed. "Can't I have just one foot of space to myself? Do you have to look through everything?". . .
"I want to know what's in the box, Jeff," I said firmly.
Jeff did not move to open it.
I turned and started for the basement to get a tool with which I could open the box myself.
Jeff leapt in front of me. He whipped out a birthday check I had written only the day before and ripped it up. "I don't want this if you can't give me one foot of privacy."
I stared at him silently, and Jeff very quickly calmed himself.
"You're right, Dad," he said quietly. "It's magazines, that kind of thing. But just leave it for now, OK? It might upset Grandma. I'll open it for you in the morning, I promise." He walked back into the kitchen and tucked the box beneath his arm. "I'll open it in the morning," he said, as he disappeared into the basement.
The next morning, Jeff returned with the box. He took a key from his pocket and opened it. "See?" he said.
I glanced down in to a stack of pornographic magazines.
"Get rid of that stuff before your grandmother sees it," I told him.
"OK, Dad," Jeff said obediently, then he closed the box and returned to the basement. . . .
. . . Much later . . . I learned that while on bail, he had killed yet another human being, and that the box he'd refused to open had contained a human head.
Initially, of course, I couldn't believe that it was really Jeff who had done the things the police had accused him of. How could anyone believe that his son could do such things? I had been in the actual places where they said he had done them. I had been in rooms and basements which at other moments, according to the police, had been nothing less than a slaughterhouse. I had looked in my son's refrigerator and seen only a scattering of milk cartons and soda cans. I had leaned casually on the black table they claimed my son had used both as a dissecting table and a bizarre satanic altar. How was it possible that all of this had been hidden from me - not only the horrible physical evidence of my son's crimes, but the dark nature of the man who had committed them, this child I had held in my arms a thousand times, and whose face, when I glimpsed it in the newspapers, looked like mine?
EPILOGUE:
This last year you've heard many tall tales, lies, and stories-du-jour from wallstreet and the maintstream media. All manner of nonsense about why you were supposed to buy stocks this year. I debunked them all for you. Yet, you may still not believe the truth - no matter how obvious.
The truth is that, even today, the "credit crunch", and "mortgage mess" stories are being spun to avert your eyes from a box. A box which holds the heads of investors who are financially dead and just don't know it.
The last bastion of this market will be "the consumer". "The consumer" will have to, somehow, miraculously, come up with the money to spend on the things they don't need, with money they don't have, this "holiday season".
Where will the money come from?
The money will come from - if anywhere - more borrowing. More debt. More "credit" cards with balances overflowing like the basements, attics, closets, game rooms, and garages full of plastic junk bought with that "credit".
That, my friend, is what all this talk of bailing out the "homeowner" is all about. That's what all these rate cuts by the "federal reserve" are all about. That is why you don't hear a word about "saving money" or even a HINT of caution about what you should do with your money.
That's why the media and wallstreet are doing whatever they can to keep your eyes off the box.
The sad part about all the lies you've been fed this year is that we've been here before. 1999 and 2000 were the YEAR OF THE LIE. Back then, the lie was that "dot com" companies with NO EARNINGS were a great place to put your money. Jim Cramer - for example - pounded people into stocks of companies that are no longer in existance - AT THE TOP. The next story was that, okay, the market isn't where you want to be, it's in REAL ESTATE. And, on cue, the federal reserve dropped interest rates to an effective ZERO and lemmings - I mean Americans - "bought" (I mean, "were bought buy") homes (I mean, mortgage companies and banks) with borrowed money they couldn't afford to spend.
Now, in what can only be seen as an ironic nightmare scenario, wallstreet is at it again. The story now is that, although the housing boom is what "fueled" our "robust" economy over the last 5 years, the absolute collapse of that sector has no effect on anything, and you should just go out and spend that last dime in your pocket on some cheap crap from China. (Lead-based-paint-covered, no doubt.)
The media "debates" things for which there is no debate. They take polls. They listen to their "guests" (read: owners) spin all the reasons to buy stocks even now. They perpetuate myths designed to scare you out of selling your stocks. (The most recent being that, "rate cuts" will push the market to new all time highs. If you believe that, why, then did the market tank since the last two rate cuts - AS I PREDICTED?)
All the while, the underpinnings of our economy still stink. The stocks you hold in your portfolio at "all time highs" are still going to roll over. And, many of you will not learn this time until...
...open that box...
I got burned once by wallstreet and their whore, the media. I know what's in the box. I don't need to open it again.
Like I said, "box can hold many things."
Sincerely,
Don Harrold

UXG -

Nothing guarantees the success of even a star like McEwan.

If there proves to be significant gold on UXG's land, he'll probably conduct a USGold Challenge, get a million geeks "prospecting for gold" over Google, and make a great success of it. If not, ....

I'll wait, watch it base, and hop on if it starts upwards. BUT, always with a stop, since there are not guarantees.

ALOHA !!

UXG
I bought US GOLD back when the symbol was USGL the day that Rob McEwen announced he was now the company CEO. That day in July 2005 there was such a rush for shares that I barely got filled at $0.72USD. The prior day the share price closed at $0.35USD. Very shortly the share price was in the $4 range. I knew that thr ROB POWER was in effect since I only bought sight-unseen and just on the ROB POWER say so! After I bought I did my due diligence and realized I bought a company that had no drill results or nothing except a large land package. I had know of other juniors that had a large land package and not much in terms of good drill results. One that came to mind was Queenstake-QEE which was trading below $0.25USD at the time. Essentially USGL was another QEE only with ROB POWER. I followed the ROB MANIA up to the $8 range and then started selling because there were never any good drill results. I sold off all my shares at the mid $9USD range and waited and then the price came back down. I bought again last year in the mid $4 range and then sold it all again at the mid $6 range and did not buy back again. Its been over two years and where are the drill results? The share price is now reflecting that issue and not so much ROB POWER!

I own no UXG now. I will not buy back until I see some tangible results.

If UXG fails the ROB POWER will be diminished quite a bit. It seems like all else in life you are only a HERO based on your last act of heroism! When that vapor is gone so is your pedestal! I still have great admiration for Rob McEwen and I am sure will have many more great successes, but he puts his geology pants on the same as the rest of us. Live by the sword ... die by the sword.

kaimu

Ooooooo my.... it doesn't look good for my UXG holdings.

OG- sorry for the late response, but not much time to watch the market today...have a minor position in UXG at 3 and change from yesterday->plan to hold for a bounce, but i know as much as anyone else about why it's been selling off...

Any updates on Bill's plans for a pay "alert" service?

re UXG discussion: It seems there are two groups on this board. Those short term traders and those who stashed aside a position in UXG betting long-term on the jockey. Possibly this would be a good example (maybe in the WIR) to review for the second group how to react to price action of this sort?

US Gold was always overpriced from a fundamental standpoint. Market value is even now about $200 million; compare that to under $100 million for Geologix, which has a string of good drill results. You were paying for Rob McEwen. As Bill says the jockey is very important, but you also have to find some gold. The premium for Rob is coming back to earth.

The Skype messaging seems to work pretty good... 2 notes about it... the full html shows when links are used - would be nice to strip out the html stuff since skype formats links itself; also, will we be able to send a message to the "host" to start the streaming each day? Not sure I want the messages unsolicited... if possible maybe the text "subscribe" and "unsubscribe" or "on/off" each day...

Gold just went vertical? Program trade?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Isaiah-
I may have misunderstood your post but if I imply correctly that you have more than small or moderate position in UXG I'd recommend you to scale down. They have not discovered commercially viable gold yet and it is a gamble at this point. By gamble I mean they can realistically go to zero if they do not find good deposit.
Disclaimer - I hold a small long position long term.

PAL is on special sale today.

JP Morgan downgrades Goldman, Morgan, Lehman and Merry Grinch - ok so who is bidding the market today ? Bizarro World - maybe that's what happened here.

Maybe POG is reacting to the South Africa miner's strike?

It's not a question of altering your spending, it's a question of how you get money to pay the teachers.

Bill Monford CEO Florida State Schools Investment Board

Guess it is Bizarro World, right up there with Heckuva job Brownie.

i dont get the idea regarding jr. miner's
they are supposed to be leveraged the most to golds rise,
even with increased costs of production the increases in gold should make their properties more attractive non?

mr. john embry aka Canada's Mr. Gold just posted an article on www.sprott.com's main page about now being an ideal time to pick up battered jr. gold stocks.

i know bill you have stated they will get dumped w/ the bathwater during an intense market correction, but do you feel they will move exponentially compared to the majors and the metal on the next cycle upleg?

With respect to UXG, number2son is spot on. I think someone here doubled down on this yesterday, not to rub salt, but what do you think of that concept now?

UXG is down about 59% from its highs on rising volume. You now need over 100% just to get even. How many stocks do you own or have owned that are up 100% in the last year, 5 years? The answer may give you an indication of when you will get back to even.

The solution is simple. Cut your loss. Cut it out like a cancer. Be ruthless.

Here is number2son’s suggestion, “It can't be stressed enough that, no matter what you think about the long-term prospects for a stock, you need to set stops to protect yourself against declines likes this. I took a loss in WGW myself this week - even though I like the company and its position, in the end it comes down to risk management and preservation of capital.”

Geckojb, enjoyed the Jimmy Rogers and Joe Battipaglia video.

Isaiah64v4 it’s never too late to cut your loss, but it’s better to have a methodology beforehand as where to get out.

ok, so we had to wait until month-end was over and until after the release of yesterday's ISM number to gauge the overall strength/weakness of the U.S. stock market. Now that the market's technicals are again deteriorating, the downside comes into play.

If the downtrend begins to accelerate then we continue believe that there will be a fantastic buying opportunity for stocks, as early as the next few weeks. Why? Because all of the major categories of indicators we follow would line up bullish: Valuation, Monetary, Sentiment, Technical, Calendar, and Price.

So cerberus deal falls apart for HRB. 200M write off associated with closing option one and firing 620 employees. But that doesnt address the mountain of subprime still belonging to hrb.

Yet the stock is up several cents on avg volume. what gives?

Telestar3d,
I was the one who doubled down yesterday, giving me a full position in UXG at a 3.50 basis. My speculative portfolio sucks. I'm beaten down with CNU, VAL, EVR, GZZ, WHY, KRY, LEX, GAM and BMK. They're all dogs right now. Yes, I would rather buy them today than when I did! Their stories are still intact so, I'm holding.

I've reduced my exposure to exploration-only juniors to a minimum last month on the grounds that credit crunch will make funding much harder with negative cash flow. Juniors with active production should be in a much better shape comparatively.

occam_razor

you are right in the cutting back recommendations.

But I am almost at 50% below my basis.... this is not wise thinking I know.... but I will ride this ship to the ocean bottom if need be. To cut now and have it turn around would be tough to endure.

Isaiah...

To help I added to my UXG right here...2.80...As Bill says bet the jockey and I think the odds are 5-2 not 20-1...:^)

Just FYI...I think Da Boyz are going to goose this market one more time to the upside...Just feels like they have some wind at their backs and Bears on the ropes...

Morning all Caraistas,
Interesting story on financial entertainment TV about some foreclosed upon individuals ACTUALLY contesting the foreclosure as the holder of the mortgage could not prove that the address in question was in fact owned in the credit sieve (pun intended). While I think this says volumes about American business practices, I also think to the homeowner...Good for you. Stand up and say you're "mad as hell and not going to be pushed around".

To all who post their trades…thanks. To Bill..many thanks.

Throwing this out for discussion before I jump…
I am thinking of purchasing WIN, a telecom that is in the Cara buy zone though not a Cara co. Merrill and other HB&B say telecom is a good place to be. Has reasonable PE and fPE less according to Morningstar. Google finance says the reverse, pe=13.4 and fpe = 14.9. ROE is above sector avg and dividend is attractive at .25, yield = 7.6, also abv sector av . Not a recommendation. Do your DD & tell us what that entails.
Peace from north Puget Sound…. Avoided any local flooding by being on an island!
Gray

Fransix - Juniors and Costs !

The article you flagged is REALLY food for thought: http://www.safehaven.com/article-8943.htm

It covers 3 cases where unexpected costs tanked a stock: southwestern resources, Gammon, and Novagold.

Re the last case, an experienced "juniors trader" I know wrote:

Everyone in the business (everyone!) thought that Novagold had the best management around, and the stock was at all time highs hours before they announced they were closing Galore. If you can find me a discouraging word about Novagold or about the Galore project that was written before they shut it down, I'll buy you a hamburger.

Here is what Moriarty wrote about Nova a year ago:

*****NovaGold (NG-T $17.46 Canadian, 91.4 million shares outstanding) Advanced gold near term production in Alaska, advanced gold exploration Alaska, advanced gold/copper/silver exploration in BC. This has been the best trading stock in Canada for five years. If you bought every year when they got cheap and sold when they got expensive you could make 100% a year. Best management in Canada, maybe in mining anywhere. Barrick is attempting a takeover at $14.50 a share but Jeff Gannon has a better chance of being elected Pope than Barrick has of taking over NovaGold at that price. Try doubling your price, Barrick, and a few people might start thinking about it. Barrick taking over NG is like turning wine into water.*****
_________________________________________________

Now Barrick's offer looks pretty good! - Could anyone have forseen NG's announcement? Perhaps only position-sizing can limit damage, and thus protect against such a situation.

HOKU is an interesting stock in the solar space. Has a supply contract to provide Solarfun Power Hong Kong Limited with polysilicon that runs 8 years.

The stock is volatile but its prospects interesting. I purchased a small position on 11/6/07, the bottom fell out (-38% and since we are talking about UXG and how to deal with drawdown, normally you will never find a stock on my ledger with a
>-15% loss usually much less as I just take the loss.)

However, due to position size, I broke the rule. What hurt the stock was a bad quarter, but the contracts are coming so this should be temporary. On 11/26/07, the supply agreement with HOKU was announced and the stock moved 35%. The comparison with UXG is, obviously, positive drill results are needed to pop the stock.

In addition to contracts, I studied who was buying the stock in Q ending 9/30/07.
I liked the fact that Vanguard was a new first time buyer.

So luckily the above factors seem to have fallen in place with this position. Looking to add.

Isiah, when you trade - look at both outcomes!!! Don't just look at the turnaround that you might miss, but also actually picture the stock going in the other direction, and hard! Then you have looked at both sides. I know, it's hard and I am sure that all of us who invest, even Bill, have turned away from looking at the outcome that we don't want to see, at least once or twice. But you MUST be able to do that to stay in for the long term. Good luck, and just know, that as bad as the loss feels, the gain that you don't know will make up for it.

I think DUG is ready to bust above this $42.5 resistance. XOM looks tired. Patiently waiting.

Bill..."Fortunately, although largely ignored, most of the economy remains at least a foot away from this epicenter inch and at this point still appears healthy." - all i can say is "WOW"

Occam...Pal Whats your take? I've been watching
since about 15. Tax selling?

Happy Holidays to all.

Photogray,

While I understand that some people caught in this mess and taken advantage of should fight back, it seems to me that if people who signed these mortgages on the dotted line and can't pay the bill, shouldn't they be foreclosed on??? What about all those people who are renting (like I am) through the boom and now bust because they understood the nonsense going on and grasped the concept that they COULD NOT AFFORD to buy a house? I think this story has many villains. One of the saddest ones is the average person who repeatedly gets caught up in the get rich quick scheme.

Just my two cents. I just wanted to point out that I think it's time for American's to take the country back, and it's time for us to meditate on our own actions if we got caught up in this mess.

Bill

Thank you very much for your input on UXG. I appreciate your honest assessment of the stock.

Quick note to everyone who uses my RSI tool. I'm changing the way the weekly and monthly RSI are calculated. After discussing with Bill, he thinks I should be looking back n closes ago, as opposed to using week-end and month-end data (weekly looks back 5 closes, monthly looks back 21 closes).

I can see both sides, but I do feel like the month-end and week-end points are fairly arbitrary (and more so than an n-period look back) so I'm going to make the change. This should also make weekly/monthly data match up with the RSI data from Worden TC that used to be posted on this blog, which I consider another sign that it's a move in the right direction.

Once I've made the change (probably by the end of the day), the RSI values will recalculate over the next 8 hours or so, so there will be a period of inconsistent results. Also, if you are keeping track of RSI values, the monthly/weekly values might show a moderate change tomorrow, but it will just be a result of calculating differently.

Anyway, since a lot of people are clearly looking at the site, I wanted to give a heads-up so people don't get too confused.

Oh, and MikeNYC, that's very cool that it seems to have such a good W/L ratio. One day I'd like to track that sort of thing, but who knows when that will be....

Jeff

basketguy

thanks for pumping up UGX! :^)

calvino

thanks for the advice... You made some really good points.

My new thoughts on HR Block. With Richard Breeden as the interim chief, and the rate of news about coming clean the past weeks, I feel they will let out all the bad news quickly. How else can they move fwd and rebuild on just the tax business?

The question boils down to, will Breeden be ethical and adhere to his previous roles as policeman to Worldcom and head of SEC, or adhere to hb&b interest and try to hide the billions of subprime off the balance sheet.

this is why i am on the sidelines for now. Does anyone else have an opinion on HRBs future?

maggy re PAL
It is at a multi-year support level. I got in at 4.29 today, trailing stop now at 3.80, will try a swing trade.

Since I have been waiting patiently for a price to come to me today (relatively new part of my plan) after allowing for the stock's RSI to give me a BUY ALERT (extremely new part of my technique) I have spent a little more time today reading the blog in "real time".

The action of today's traders reminds me of the 1999 to 2002 market of which I partook as a new investor/trader on a minute to minute basis.

Thus, I have just looked at the monthly charts (log) for QQQQ since its inception in April of 1999 to help me get a perspective on my upcoming tenth anniversary of investing/trading.

When one looks at the chart you will note that QQQ started trading in April of 1999 when it opened at $54.43. It then rocketed up (remember that this is a monthly chart... see its gyrations in weekly or daily charts) to $120.50 in March of 2000 and then rapidly fell to 47.45, back to near its original price, in Feb of 2001. It bottomed in Oct., 2002 at $25.25 and has taken till July, 2007 to get back $47.53.

I rode that market up and I rode that market down and I can tell you it was a WILD ride. I made many big mistakes during that period which I am still paying for today...buy the dips...double down...double up...double sideways... get tied up in the frenzy.

What I find interesting in looking at the 10 yr monthly chart is how calm the market action looks since its bottom...rising lows, higher highs, trend line support at a reasonable angle not like the spike in gold today. Heck there is even a positive looking triangle with the $50 S/R line which I think Bill might say is the "line-in-the-sand."

This little exercise has helped me understand that I am better at what I am trying to accomplish now...better techniques....more patience....calmer...and most importantly I now have more CASH on the sideline waiting for the right time to use it.

I sure hope none of you make the mistake I made during my early years at this game and have no ammo left at the time you can use it best.

Can someone please comment on UXG's drill results released in April, when the stock jumped 50% in a day? I thought that meant the results were very good, and so I am kind of surprised to see people talking about UXG not having any positive drill results...

As Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to record low levels, Wall Street greed infected the American consumer and perpetrated their pigging-out on rapidly rising home equity values and spending the cash as if it were free money. Similar behavior exists in the world of credit card debt.

The excrement from lowering lending standards and the mindless borrowing and spending is popping up everywhere.... It has global reach.

A mayor of a small Norwegian town north of the Artic Circle was losings sleep because her town had large investments in US subprime debt. German banks,British banks,Asian banks, Florida School districts, teachers and government pension funds, and state and municipal investment funds are just some of the debt holders.

There are over $700 billion dollars in loans ready to reset in the next 12 months. What damage will they do to financial markets? Current damage was from the first wave....the next wave will be twice as high.

Here's a good article on credit by Peter Schiff for those interested Caraistas.

Peter Schiff
Dec 3, 2007

In an article last week that examined the troubles brewing in Citigroup's mortgage business, the Wall Street Journal focused on Natalie Brandon, a 51 year old married woman from Granada Hills, CA, who is currently unable to make the payments on her $625,000 adjustable rate home loan from Citigroup, despite the fact that the rate will not even reset higher until June of next year. Amazingly, the Journal reported that Mrs. Brandon bought the house in 1985 for just $105,000, but had chosen to refinance five times over the past seven years, borrowing more than $500,000 and spending every single penny. While this may be an extreme example of American profligacy, it is by no means unique. Unfortunately this type of behavior typifies everything that is wrong with the modern American economy.

Had this homeowner behaved responsibly, as was typical for Americans of prior generations, her current monthly mortgage payments would likely be less than $600 and the remaining balance on her loan would be about $40,000. In eight more years she would have owned her home free and clear, and would likely be on track for early retirement. Instead, after 22 years of making mortgage payments, she is now $625,000 in debt. The article stated that she had recently tried to refinance into a 6%, forty year, fixed-rate mortgage, but it fell through. Even if she had qualified, she would have been obligated to make monthly mortgage payments of close to $4,000 until she was in her nineties.

For years, Wall Street and the media have been singing the praises of the heroic American consumer. To that end Mrs. Brandon could be portrayed as Wonder Woman. She did her part to power our consumer driven economy by borrowing and spending to her heart's content. Her last refinance even allowed her to buy a brand new Lexus. As long as she could find a greater fool willing to loan her more money, there was no limit to what she could buy. As it turned out, Citigroup was the greatest fool, left holding the bag on a $625,000 mortgage on a house now likely worth only half that amount.

Is it any wonder that we have enjoyed such a vibrant consumer based economy when a working class couple with perhaps $60,000 per year of household income can borrow over $500,000 (tax free) and buy whatever they want with the money? As the bills come due and those who have been doing all of the lending finally realize they will never be repaid, this crazy consumption binge will finally come to an end.

As the losses mount, the credit crunch will spread from mortgages to auto loans and to all forms of consumer lending. The days of Americans borrowing to consume are finally coming to a long over due end. Although it seems like science fiction to Americans raised on credit cards, within a few years most will only be able to buy those goods they can afford to pay for with cash.

Against my gut, added to MacDonald (BMK) at .63.

In UXG I believe we are primarily seeing classic -- albeit in this case massive -- tax-loss harvesting.

Other headwinds exist for junior gold right now, and UXG is not immune to those, but UXG right now is a prime instrument to execute tax-loss sales.

Larger traders of junior gold stocks that need to offset gains have found their ideal candidate, and this is a comparatively widely held, therefore liquid, and well-known issue amongst junior golds. Once the dumping stops, the shares can be bought back in 30 days, and my guess is that many will.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the company that would be uncharacteristic of a junior explorer, and it has the great long-term advantage of Rob McEwen.

This isn't an endorsement to buy right now, just perspective for those that are wondering what's going on.

Hoosier,
We agree on many points.eg…” I think this story has many villains.” Were I back in the heartland and we met and discussed this over coffee or dinner, the end result is that we would both feel for the honest (though perhaps not savvy) shortsided person who was duped or at least misled. Many who signed were IMHO, cajoled, comforted and seduced by people who only had their eye on the prize- the fee. Will those officers give back earnings and bonuses? The word officers was underlined to highlight the position they held for each borrower and the moral choice *(see my moral condrundrum indicated below) those officers made-as professionals. I see the fees and profits of the mortgage agencies grown from the dream of owning a home as fraud and illegal gains. When will those companies be forced to give back the profits made since CDO’s were invented…..should we figure NEVER!
See the earlier post / moneygenie at December 4, 2007 11:56 AM about trusting others but not looking into the box. Hindsight is 20/20. I had a similar moment recently when I told “my guy” at HB&B, I was concerned about the preferred shares of Citibank I hold. His answer was…he’s been making money a long time and it’s a good dividend. I’m still chewing that discussion and asset position over in my mind.
Thanks for your response. I’ve never had the opportunity to write conundrum before!

peace
Gray

knoot - That is the best explanation for the UXG price drop I heard so far.

knoot

You are a man of H O P E !!!!

That makes sense about selling off now for taxes and the buying back 30 days later.

Hopefully you are right...

Thanks!

Looks like Merrill Lynch is moving to the bear view for next year:

http://tinyurl.com/373dn4

I'm still long the stocks I discussed previously - smaller companies than the Cara 100, that have been beaten up and have really good value at today's prices (unless the economy really tanks), but this is a good read if you have the time.

Also, see gold bouncing back nicely today after the European Bank selling finished their 42 tons of gold last week. Fundamentals should not start driving prices, so perhaps today lift is the start of something good.

As far as UXG goes, there appears to be a lot of selling pressure the last couple of weeks on stocks that are down for the year - wondering if it's not a combination of early tax loss selling and hedge fund redemptions causing moves like this.

Re: James Paulsen's view

Scenario?

Assume his point is correct that housing and autos do not have a significant impact on the overall economy. Also, consider the "fear" subsiding as the mortgage issue becomes clearer... And finally consider the Fed lowering rates (as is the consensus right now).

Wouldn't then...moderate global growth continue...and while this is going on housing and autos begin to turn around?

Wouldn't this then lay the foundation for a significant upturn in the markets over the next 6-18 months?

Bill, do you have an e-mail for Rob McEwen? I couldn't find it on the web. Thanks...

Photogray,

"Were I back in the heartland..." Were I back in the heartland I could afford a house! ;-)

Thank you for your response, and I'm glad you took my response as I intended. Sometimes when I'm writing, I've got the nagging voice in my head that it wont be taken as a lively discussion, but instead as an attack on what someone wrote. I actually saw this Jessie Jackson online video yesterday that was calling for a march on Wall Street, and it just had me scratching my head wondering what happened to the personal responsibility aspect of life. I guess this is America, where my house and stocks always go up in value while my food, gas, and toys get cheaper everyday.

I couldn't agree with you more about these fees and profits. I can't stand when I see profits privatized and socialized losses... Your losses and mine sure has heck aren't socialized.

Take care out there Gary.

Anybody looking at KBX. Similar company to UXG...speculative company. They just hired a bunch of new exec's. Puplavae Financial is one of the biggest shareholders. Not sure if that is good or bad.

Looks like it is hitting a double bottom possibly.

David, Here's a link to McEwen Capital. http://tinyurl.com/yqu4l3

re: UXG

The most important, yet hardest thing, to learn about trading is how to take a loss. You have to set tight stops and cut anything that goes against you. It may reverse the minute you sell but there is no place for hope in trading. As Telestar3d says, you have to be ruthless. Don't look back; look for the next opportunity.

Once you can control your hope, fear, greed, you will be able to execute your trading plans without wavering.

This was a lesson I learned the hard way.

Hammer1 -
I might be wrong but Paulsen view is a gross underestimation of existing (not even future) problems. How about financial industry health ? Consumer creditworthiness ? Enormous dollar decline ? This is way more than one inch hole.

Fred, that link has the following contact e-mail: info@mcewencapital.com. Does Rob personally respond to e-mails sent to that address?

isaiah- re UXG- given your basis, i can understand your reluctance to sell...consider a "lateral" trade, if you will...cash out of UXG and rotate the funds into NOT.V, which (if i understand correctly) has promising drill results...the correct mind-set here is if you were in cash, what would you be buying today...by making a lateral move, you quiet the emotional angst of bailing out of UXG while maintaining the prospect of an outsized return on another junior miner...JMHO...

Gold rises on the back of weaker dollar
Tue Dec 4, 2007 11:40am ET

By Veronica Brown and Golnar Motevalli
LONDON (Reuters) - Gold extended gains on Tuesday, buoyed by a weaker dollar versus the euro, while platinum firmed as miners downed tools for a strike in top producer South Africa, highlighting supply constraints. …..
Analysts also noted gold had benefited from its safe-haven appeal as dips in stock markets and U.S. government bond yields attracted wider investment from buyers looking for shelter from problems in global credit markets.

http://tinyurl.com/3akghj

$800 gold shouting!
$800 Gold Should Be Telling You Many Things...

When a big lie is exposed... truth always rises to the occasion...
The same is true in the financial world; when paper money lies, gold rises to tell the truth.

$800 gold should tell you 8 things:

1. Official inflation stats are a lie. Reality: CPI x 2-3.
2. The Fed will sacrifice the dollar to fight recession.
3. Gold prices, having tripled since 2001, may triple again.
4. Gold is fast becoming a mainstream investment worldwide.
5. Commodities will exceed inflation-adjusted historical highs.
6. Geopolitical uncertainty will keep rising worldwide.
7. You need tangible assets in a "debt-addicted" world.
8. You need a "Gold 101" education before investing in gold.

http://tinyurl.com/2smltf

David

Here you go this give you email and US Mail address

http://www.usgold.com/contact/

I had planned on senting a letter thinking it may have a better chance of having his eyes see it. Only thing is, I am not sure what I want to write to him about, other than get the stock up Rob!

Moab - getting "revenge" when a stock stings you!

You're right. Stocks often do hit your stop, take you out and then reverse. In general, it's doubly frustrating when a stock you have held, and been stopped out of, then has a big gain.

I TRY to reverse with it, and get back in. I keep a watchlist called "my ex-portfolio" and try to give this list extra attention. If I can "hop back on" upon reversal or a good future entry point and make money with such a stock, it's a double morale boost.

And, after all, we're really trading our minds as much as the markets !

PS: manual, visual inspection is not enough to catch many such reversals. I plan son to implement an alerts system, (probably through quotetracker.com's free software)

I'll set an alert when each stock enters my "ex-portfolio" based on the question: at what price would I want to be back into it?

FWIW

GE:

I need to point out here that GE has decoupled from the SP500 and Dow and I am not sure what the story is here? Is GE predicitng something for the economy?

Long Term trendline of GE now broke, sits under the 200 day MA but RSI nearing over-sold levels.

I think for several reasons this CARA 100 stock warrants us watching. opinions appreciated.

David -

I can't confirm is McEwan answers that particular email address, but I CAN tell you he makes himself amazingly accessible.

Early last year, when UXG acquired 4 companies from McEwan Capital, I called UXG's US office to ask how he handled the conflict-of-interest and PR aspects of being on both sides of that deal. I left a message, and to my utter amazement, I received a phone call from him the next day! -

So, I think if you write that email address, saying "to the personal attention of Rob McEwan" there's a good chance you'll hear back from him.

That's "ROB POWER" and it means a LOT to me. The minute UXG turns up on the MACD, RSI, and Force Index, I'll be back in !

Look at the financial aspect of GE.
I think the market sees it as such so it sells off with banks and brokers.

2nd

I understand your thinking...but if I remember correctly NOT.V is near or just above the 5.0 level [Scottrade on line does not provide quote].

My basis on UXG is 5.3 which is close to what NOT.V. currently is. Today UXG is 2.83 which puts me down 53%. So I would lose around half the shares if I did a lateral trade. If UXG never goes up then it was a good move. If Rob does come through then the wait maybe worth it. This is a tough one. And a lesson that will stick with me for life. [assuming UXG doesn't kill me first :^) ]

Rob just increased his ownership of UXG.

US Gold Corporation (TSX:UXG)(AMEX:UXG)(FRANKFURT:US8) is pleased to announce that Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, has increased his beneficial ownership in the Company to 21.5% (20,687,427 shares) from 19.8% (18,635,348 shares) through the exercise of Warrants of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation. This additional investment in US Gold totals $3,903,107.

The Company wishes to state that the recent senior management changes are part of a deliberate plan to tighten the focus and improve the product of our exploration efforts. The duties of the former president have been assumed by Rob McEwen and other members of management. Also, Bill Pass, Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, has notified the Company that after 20 years of loyal service to US Gold that he will retiring as of March 31, 2008. The Company wishes to thank Bill for all his hard work and dedication.

The Warrants were issued in 2005 by two companies by way of private placement. Subsequently, these companies were acquired earlier this year by US Gold (Nevada Pacific Gold and Tone Resources). After giving effect to share exchange ratios for these two companies the average exercise price of the Warrants was $1.90 per share and were exercised into shares of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation which are exchangeable at any time on a one for one basis into common shares of US Gold Corporation. The shares were issued from the treasury of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation.

I find having sell stops for both gains and losses to be invaluable as they take the emotion out of trading. I put on the sell stop at the same time I buy based on the chart and then just move it up with the stock until it is executed. The price I set is slightly under the trendline, per g034's (I think) trendline strategy.

David

excuse my typos....

geckojb - GE appears to have a lot of support at this 36-ish area, and positive RSI dovergence going back to Nov 9. Also I'm not seeing the broken trendline, although it appears to be getting close.

UXG Holders...... [and wannabes :^) ]

Market wire just released this...

Rob McEwen Increases Ownership in US Gold to 21.5%

December 4, 2007
Rob McEwen Increases Ownership in US Gold to 21.5%
DENVER, COLORADO--(Marketwire - Dec. 4, 2007) -

(All amounts in Canadian Dollars)

US Gold Corporation (TSX:UXG)(AMEX:UXG)(FRANKFURT:US8) is pleased to announce that Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, has increased his beneficial ownership in the Company to 21.5% (20,687,427 shares) from 19.8% (18,635,348 shares) through the exercise of Warrants of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation. This additional investment in US Gold totals $3,903,107.

The Company wishes to state that the recent senior management changes are part of a deliberate plan to tighten the focus and improve the product of our exploration efforts. The duties of the former president have been assumed by Rob McEwen and other members of management. Also, Bill Pass, Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, has notified the Company that after 20 years of loyal service to US Gold that he will retiring as of March 31, 2008. The Company wishes to thank Bill for all his hard work and dedication.

The Warrants were issued in 2005 by two companies by way of private placement. Subsequently, these companies were acquired earlier this year by US Gold (Nevada Pacific Gold and Tone Resources). After giving effect to share exchange ratios for these two companies the average exercise price of the Warrants was $1.90 per share and were exercised into shares of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation which are exchangeable at any time on a one for one basis into common shares of US Gold Corporation. The shares were issued from the treasury of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation.

Sen. Dodd questioning Goldman Sach's involvement in selling and shorting mortgage bonds.

Wants Hank to explain.....

This should be a good one Bill!

UXG Holders...... [and wannabes :^) ]

Market wire just released this...

Rob McEwen Increases Ownership in US Gold to 21.5%

December 4, 2007
Rob McEwen Increases Ownership in US Gold to 21.5%
DENVER, COLORADO--(Marketwire - Dec. 4, 2007) -

(All amounts in Canadian Dollars)

US Gold Corporation (TSX:UXG)(AMEX:UXG)(FRANKFURT:US8) is pleased to announce that Rob McEwen, Chairman and CEO, has increased his beneficial ownership in the Company to 21.5% (20,687,427 shares) from 19.8% (18,635,348 shares) through the exercise of Warrants of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation. This additional investment in US Gold totals $3,903,107.

The Company wishes to state that the recent senior management changes are part of a deliberate plan to tighten the focus and improve the product of our exploration efforts. The duties of the former president have been assumed by Rob McEwen and other members of management. Also, Bill Pass, Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, has notified the Company that after 20 years of loyal service to US Gold that he will retiring as of March 31, 2008. The Company wishes to thank Bill for all his hard work and dedication.

The Warrants were issued in 2005 by two companies by way of private placement. Subsequently, these companies were acquired earlier this year by US Gold (Nevada Pacific Gold and Tone Resources). After giving effect to share exchange ratios for these two companies the average exercise price of the Warrants was $1.90 per share and were exercised into shares of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation which are exchangeable at any time on a one for one basis into common shares of US Gold Corporation. The shares were issued from the treasury of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation.

sorry for the double post

RE: Taking losses.

Taking losses has become so natural to me that I can barely remember the time when taking losses was painful. I've taken so many losses that I just see it as the natural course of trading. I really don't even think about it. The key, of course, is experience: you learn that small losses are MUCH less painful than big losses, and that all big losses first begin as small losses.

Of course, I should add, now that it only costs me $1 per trade (through IB), I have absolutely no problem dumping a losing trade because I know that I can get right back in for next to nothing.

Isaiah...

So happy he's double postin...:^)

I'm already up 5% from my morning purchase. Hang in there Isaiah...

What I'm readin now:

Northern Rock staff to get Christmas bonus

By Angela Monaghan
Last Updated: 1:29pm GMT 04/12/2007
Staff at Northern Rock are in line for a Christmas bonus and above-inflation pay rise, despite its financial woes.

http://tinyurl.com/29uexu

Abramovich snaps up stake in Highland Gold

By Russell Hotten, Industry Editor
Last Updated: 5:33pm GMT 04/12/2007
Roman Abramovich, billionaire owner of Chelsea football club, is spending £200m to buy a 40pc stake in Highland Gold Mining through his Moscow-based investment vehicle Millhouse.

http://tinyurl.com/ytbgaz

May be capitulation on PAL today, volume more than 4 times the average. Think shark followed this one also. No position.

Next to GS, I’ve considered the general (GE) to be kind of a tell of the overall market health. Perhaps Craig’s observation about its known financial unit exposure is relevant, but it bears watching.

Speaking of UXG, note it’s up to 2.97 in afterhours. No position.

UXG:
"After giving effect to share exchange ratios for these two companies the average exercise price of the Warrants was $1.90 per share and were exercised into shares of US Gold Canadian Acquisition Corporation which are exchangeable at any time on a one for one basis into common shares of US Gold Corporation."

So if I'm reading this right, Rob Mcewen just paid $1.90 per share for the increased shares he bought...

Please tell me I'm wrong...

DaveB -

You're probably not wrong, and you probably don't wanna know McEwan's basis in his original $100M investment in what became UXG.

what else could we add to the mix to supress the miners!!!

DaveB. correct on long term GE trendline. Had up two charts, one from Jul-07 and other going back to 03 - looked at wrong chart.

basketguy

Don't you just hate it when those double posts happen. Especially when your name is at the bottom of them.

Is there any way around it, when your web page freezes up like that?

Bill -

I posted about this US mining legislation a month ago. It has yet to pass the Senate as far as I know.

Also, there is a "clean water" ballot initiative in Alaska that would regulate every stream in the state. It is aimed at stopping the Pebble project by indirect means but would be devastating to mining in the state.

Apparently US politicians want us to buy minerals from abroad.

David, Fred, Isiah, Bill....et al, I too thanks for the discussion on UXG. I protected most profits from the first time up. I had been taking a position on the way down and then took the rest of my "spec" money and bought the other half. 2% total. But what everyone says about cutting losses, otherwise, it's just one more for the collection of dead corpses...as 2nd ave would have us reminded.

Bill
Sorry if I'm a nag, but do we have access to another group of stocks, besides the brilliant and well chosen cara global? Or, are such additional lists are still incubating?

Does anyone know where I can find the daily RSI below 30 and above 70 for stocks in the Cara 100?

Roll call starting for state investment funds.

12/4/2007 (Crain’s) — Illinois pulled its investment funds out of mortgage-backed securities long before the subprime meltdown, a move that will save the state from a crisis that faces other state governments.

Recent news reports are now emerging about state governments holding investments in mortgage-backed securities that are now in danger of default. Florida, Montana and Connecticut have seen their debt ratings downgraded as a result of their financial holdings.

Meanwhile, pension funds for state and municipal employees (Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund) said their exposure to subprime investments is minimal.

Isaiah64v4...

I think Fred yesterday said to copy your post before sending...That way if you get the error message...You can wait a few minutes then refresh page see if you posted, If not just paste and post again...A little extra work, but seems to work...

UXG: Question about the McEwen's excercise price

Does anyone know if the excercise price of the warrant was predetermined at the time of issuing the warrants as $1.90, or is it based on the stock price at the time of the purchase.

If it is based on current stock price did Rob McEwen wanted the stock price down?

If the price was predetermied what is the siginficance of excercising now? Just to let us know that $1.90 is the bottom?

Anyone see Abby Cohen on CNBC just as GS was hitting the LOW FOR THE DAY!!!

Could not happen to a nicer person calling for 1600 by the end of the year...

Bill

The Clean House Continues

US Gold announces Bill Pass, Vice President and CFO, is retiring as of March 31, 2008

Re: UGX and losses...

For those of you with losses in UGX (or any other stock that has declined), the best advice I ever got was of course to think of everything you own as being marked-to-market every day. (sounds like what a lot of people AREN'T doing right now)

When you mark-to-market each day, then you can evaluate whether your current portfolio has the best chance of making money compared to the entire universe of other options. That is a huge point!

If you still own a stock that has gone down by 50%, is that stock that has just gone down 50% the very best investment option for your funds to garner a 100% return over some amount of time (to reach original break-even)? If you do not at all times have a portfolio that will bring you the highest returns for a given risk level, then you have the obligation to yourself to change the portfolio so that it is optimal.

I know many others have said this already, but there have been studies that show you can make near-market returns, simply with random stock selection and good money (risk) management. Stops are your friend. Bill says you should manage your portfolio like a business. If one of your employees (stocks) was stealing from your business (outsized losses) would you not fire that person and hire someone else (re-balance portfolio)?

Discipline over conviction as Todd Harrison says...

karin:

"If you still own a stock that has gone down by 50%, is that stock that has just gone down 50% the very best investment option for your funds to garner a 100% return over some amount of time (to reach original break-even)? If you do not at all times have a portfolio that will bring you the highest returns for a given risk level, then you have the obligation to yourself to change the portfolio so that it is optimal."

Well put.

About mining costs - much about mining is optimism and hope until the first bulk samples run through the mill, and then its about not losing face. Its best to find a company with a habit relying on the unvarnished truth.

The other aspect that seems to elude miners almost as routinely as costs are currency values. This is especially important as the gold price progresses, but everyone is transfixed by the $US bullion price.

Right now, the gold price functions as do the currency crosses of the ¥/$, £/$ and €/$, and it has since May, 2006.

I believe we are about to see an overall change in how bullion functions as regards currencies, that the bullion price in the various currencies will be supported as many zones will be lowering short term rates.

The Canadian Central Bank had been supplying liquidity for months because of the ABCP crisis, and has lowered interest rates today in step with short term treasury yields.

This aught to be a layup for $C bullion prices, and a lower $C but so far, the $C bullion price lags all other currencies.

Thus the $US bullion price is the leading indicator, but should any fundamentals be provided by Central Banks in the EU zone by lowering interest rates there or in Canada, this would work against declines in bullion prices even though the $US may rally.

So the trade of long ¥,€,£ and short $ will unwind, but that gold will reflect the new regime about to begin.

Well, I say watch the $C gold price and begin the beguine.

Oh, and a complete surprise, this article in the Globe:

http://tinyurl.com/yt642b

Perhaps they are trying to make up for breathlessly polishing Goldman Sach's turd the other day when they were recommending shorting gold for 2008.

All depends on how those currency crosses reverse and the leading indicator, the $US reflects those positions.

Bill,
Ok...my nagging is nothing but enthusiasm. Now, what about advisory services so I can hand it off and just have fun posting from a sandbar.

re GE, I hate what I'm seeing. Since 2002 there's an up trend line that price is now sitting on. But, that aint's such a steep up trend. I must read more about this.

And, fwiw, I used the email address so quickly dropped here by Fred and others.

Last, Don Coxe has been bemoaning how all over the world governments want a "taste" just like Tony Soprano. Wherever there's money, they want a piece. Canada even turned a blind eye to the protection they had give Suncor by legislation. Free markets...we're not like t'hem tyrants you know. Right! I hope the Senate gives them hell for this proposed legislation. Some Indian nations know what forked tongue our government talk.
Time for me to rattle the cages and give Mitch a call, no sh.. My homeland in the gulf coast has allowed huge royalties to go to the feds as well. Organized crime it is.

Karln, what about the old saying: "Buy low and sell high?" Warren Buffet has rephrased it as: "You should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Bill suggests buying stocks when they are in the accumulation zone and selling them in the distribution zone. Apparently, all these pieces of wisdom suggest that prices always fluctuate, and better returns over a long time horizon can be obtained by buying the stocks that are underpriced rather than chasing the winners. In the case of UXG, we know that it will take one positive news announcement for the stock to rise to new highs, and even if that happens in 3 years, buying UXG now will still be a good investment (with Buffet-like returns) at the current prices. The question is: are we SURE that UXG will fall down to 0 or is it just speculation fueled by the fact that it has been falling? As long as there is no fundamental reason for a stock to fall, I would assume it qualifies to be bought on the way down in small bunches. In the case of UXG, there seems to be no publicly known danger for US Gold going bankrupt (unlike the danger that exists for subprime mortgage lenders), and so US Gold should be presumed innocent unless proven guilty. Just to make sure, I sent an e-mail today to info@mcewencapital.com (rob@mcewencapital.com does not exist) with questions to Rob about his assessment of the economic feasibility of mining gold on US Gold property at $800/oz and the current state of knowledge about the gold in the ground. Let's see if I get an answer...

Karin:
Others have made similar point to yours above today (Moab, 2nd, etc.), but you drilled it home! Thank you!
Just spent the last hour catching up, and the posts today seem to me to have achieved a new high in meat, potatoes, and dessert.
Right now, CaraComm ranks as the number one place to be on this trading planet,IMO.
I thank you all, esp. BC.

Karln

"For those of you with losses in UGX "

that would just be me!

:^)

Seamus, re GE,
A broker warned me years ago to not purchase GE. The street sees it as nothing but a financial co., and as proxy for our economic health.

Re ag, doing my dd. A very few of the majors just keep going up and up. Supply and demand. Many are small or micro, and many of them just exploding. One organic egg company, took a small position. Very volatile. I think that the best investments here are not the food cos, but the axes and picks...like DE and POT...and whatever new tech that comes along. I had one in sight but did not take action, and now too high to play. I got distracted with fear and gold!

GE is indeed a tell, and I'm a little late to sniff around a sector that has already gone parabolic. The tales of a momentum allocator.

This did not take long for a response!!!See below and it did address me by name at the top:

Your e-mail has been sent to Rob McEwen. Rob is currently traveling so it might take a day’s for a direct response.

As for US Gold. The Company has approximately $30 million in the treasury and it continues to aggressively explore its projects. With the increased amount of drilling we have done on the projects we have started to look at the economics of the projects. I will allow Rob to provide more details on US Gold’s future.

Regards,

Ian Ball

David re: UXG
I doubt that Warren Buffet would buy the stock of a company with negative earnings and a market cap of $200 million, even when others are fearful.

Also, it's pretty clear to me that some equities simply don't follow the technical indicators (we use RSI for Accumulation / Distribution). These very small caps seem to fit that model, so it becomes almost a gamble to buy and sell them using technical indicators. For instance, I believe that in 2004 UXG had similar RSI numbers (very low) for almost a year and lost another 50% in valuation before it pushed upward in price.

I absolutely agree that UXG is a news-driven stock, and it MIGHT explode upwards on a bit of good news.

So in my mind, I see UXG as a very speculative investment, not suitable for those who are trading rational price movement.

David,

Buffet in particular demands buying low and selling high of companies with inherent, long term, and demonstrated value. Not just companies that are experiencing price declines. Whether there is inherent value in UXG in particular I’m not to say as I haven’t done DD, and that’s not how I invest, but I doubt it would pass the investment test for buffet. This isn’t picking on UXG, just that Buffet demands more than just a price decline.

Bill also demands the same, proven best-of-breed companies.

Prices in the market undoubtedly move in cycles, but individual companies can and do fail to perform and fail outright. You mention that UXG needs one good PR even if it’s 3 years from now to be a good investment. My view is not whether or not that may be true, but is this my very best option for making money for my risk? If you were to invest 100 times in a company where you had lost 50% of its value, how many of those do you feel you can reliably predict as winners?

I’m not saying that UXG will or won’t increase from here, what I am saying that if I bought today, and the position went against me, I would sell because my reason for buying (for a given timeframe) was wrong (that I expected the price to increase).

I’m not saying that you can’t be successful investing in the way you describe. What I am saying is that the research says that the odds of success are far greater with good money/position/risk management than without.

UXG up 16% afterhours to $3.30.

http://tinyurl.com/yoolsj

Enough of this....aint anyone impressed with what looks like straight talk and 30m in the treasury and reason to believe more discussion from the top guy, not to mention a response within 30 minutes from staff at night! Well, it's nice if you want it to be."On the other hand,".. Better than a poke in the eye.

AdamG, one of this community built a page to check rsi. the page is
http://rsi.korvus.net/RSIApp/RSIApp.html
you can type other stock symbols in also.
peace
Gray

scratch that. last was $3.50

DaveB:

I am still new to trading and I am still experimenting with different strategies. For example, in March of 2006 I started buying OIH and gold after they had a very good run, and then came May 2006, when I sold my holdings in desparation in the very bottom. So the lesson I learned the hard way is to hold stocks that should have good future prospects but are going down for an unexplained reason.

So I am not trading "rational" movements in price -- I am just trading long-term fluctations in price, whatever they may be. As long as I don't invest too much of my portfolio in a particular stock, I expect to do well over a long term. For example, I have been buying GROW on the way down since it was $30, and I have been buying UXG on the way down since it was $6 (So, Isaiah, my basis is higher than yours :).

Recently, I have realized (after reading Bill's comments about JNJ) that a major improvement to my strategy is to sell put options instead of buying stock on the way down. For example, today I sold 30 contracts of June 2008 puts on UXG at the strike price of $2.50, getting $0.75 for each options. If UXG falls below $2.50 and the buyer decides to execute the puts, I will have to buy 3000 shares of UXG at $2.50. However, since I have earned $0.75 per share today, I will effectively pay $1.75 per share. This may be still too much if UXG falls below $1, but it is definitely better than buying UXG today at $2.80 (which I would have done otherwise). Even if UXG falls below $2.50 for a brief moment of time, the buyer may still not execute these options, since they are long-dated and the buyer might want to keep holding them in the hopes of a greater profit (I read somewhere that 90% of people who trade options end up losing money). In any case, if the put options I sold never get executed, then I would have essentially kept 3000*$2.50 = $7500 out of the game for 6 months (I have to put this money aside in case the options do get executed). However, I have earned $2250 today for selling these puts, which is a return of 2250/7500=30% on the capital in 6 months, which is pretty good.

Let's see how this strategy plays out.

NYUgrad

You are a bearer of good news tonight on UXG....

Thanks!

NYUgrad at December 4, 2007 7:57 PM

RE UXG

Yes thanks for the update, now at $3.50 just before the AH close. Only thing that bothers me here is the volume, small board lots max trade is 4K and only 26K total AH vs 1900K during the day.

Somebody might just be trying to paint the tape prior to the opening, will see if there is follow thru in the AM.

I gotta like the quick personal response that Jasper got, I'm so used to voice mail or auto-responder email, "we automatically thank you for your interest, yada yada, your business is very important, etc etc. and we'll respond sometime in the future"

David

"So, Isaiah, my basis is higher than yours :)."

Misery loves company...

Can I get you something to drink?

David

"So, Isaiah, my basis is higher than yours :)."

Misery loves company...

Can I get you something to drink?

"In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper money. There is no other way. To what price, that depends on the scale of the inflation — and we know that inflation will continue. "

~ Nicholas L. Deak

And, I thought that I was mis reading the charts by accumulating gld just a little below where it is now and gld is climbing another.7% AH. Well, perhaps fear has cash looking for a little value in gld besides the Treasury bills. Sell into strength or is this where gld is basing? Good idea to have more dry powder around.

Bill or anyone else.

I have a TD account which serves its purpose. But as Bill stated in the beginning of todays community chat, we as a group will need to seek trades outside our borders.

Does Interactive brokers give enough support to freely buy and sell securities quickly around global exchanges, even though i deposit through U.S bank?

Thx

China - no. 1 producer and no. 2 user of gold?

themessthatgreenspanmade.com is reporting Australia's Surbiton Associates believes China will overtake S. Africa this year as the world's largest gold producer. GFMS Ltd. is reporting China and has overtaken the US in gold usage for jewelry, and now ranks no.2 behind India.

http://tinyurl.com/3ynmgk

Surprising - to me at least ...

Wait just a minute, how can this reporter/analyst value HR Block at $22-24? Every news piece i have read on the termination of the option one deal has not talked about HRB's Billions of subprime assets. Where did they all go? Is there some level 10 tranche we dont know created by HB&B?

Quote "The company made $11.2 billion of subprime loans from January to September, ranking sixth nationwide, but more than half of them were booked in the first quarter."

"To close the books on this whole miserable episode is a net positive."

What! so they realized they should stop originations now? and the loans given out already are all Prime? who are they kidding!

Am i wrong in assuming that this is Paulsen and Co. helping all the fat cats sell by asking everyone in news media to say the mutually canceled sale was a net positive? I can only imagine what the spin would have been if the deal closed!

Will anyone even have the courage to ask Breeden how/when the status of the 20B+ of subprime will affect HRB's balance sheet moving fwd?

What am i missing here guys?

http://tinyurl.com/3da68d

NYUgrad - Yes. However, if you want overseas price info, you'll have to subscribe and pay for the relevant feed or get it somewhere else. (I buy Canadian stocks on the Toronto and Venture exchanges via IB, but use Fidelity's real-time price info, which I access for free via my Fido account.) You can buy virtually any stock (also bonds, etc, as well as futures, commodities, etc.) via IB on virtually any exchange anywhere in the world.

http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ibg/main.php

Fannie Mae Cutting Dividend 30 Percent, Selling $7 Billion in Preferred Stock to Raise Capital

http://tinyurl.com/2ckmzb

btw, a seperate article put the spin that HRBs "pipeline" of mortgages could be sold to Fannie Freddie. Pipeline? that is sure vague. So are they saying fannie and freddie will buy 23B in sub prime assets from HRB, when they themselves are cutting dividends?

Oh yeh. HRB has tapped out their entire line of credit and continues to pay a dividend. Nice, so borrow money to be able to not cut the dividend.

I have a great idea. if every american pooled their 401k, savings, and investments, we can lend money to citigroup and fannie for 18% interest and let them hold the bag.

Thanks for the recognition Bill.

But the real question is how do we make money on this insight? My gut tells me the price will remain strong until the earnings release Monday, and the conf call is on the day of the 99% chance rate cut on Dec 11.

You have taught me 'we trade prices' not the news or anything else.

The interim Chief used to be the head of the SEC, and chosen to police WCOM. But that was then. He has a job to protect his friends and family now. if anyone knows how the system works its him. This is why i have no position in hrb now.

I am perplexed on my next move.

oldgoat -

Ddoes FIDO also give you historical charts on TSX and TSX.V stocks? if so, is there a good number of indicators?

Jock,
I just tried Fido for NOT.V - got a quote OK, but when clicked on chart I got "symbol not found"

Jock

For non real time US and Canadian stock charts try Stockcharts.com, excellent charts and even the free service is very good. They do have an inexpensive real time service but they are not streaming charts, have to refresh.

I've paid for their "extra" service level for years and have been very happy.

Isaiah64v4 to me:

>Misery loves company...
>Can I get you something to drink?

Isaiah: hopefully, tomorrow's jump in UXG will reverse the trend of its falling price, and after a few more rate cuts by the Fed and significant jumps in gold we will be buying drinks for everyone else. :)

moab,

by selling on a trendline break you will be heartbroken more than once...don't get discouraged. A security can momentarily break a trendline, suck in sellers causing a throw over and then a "throw-up" when the security rallies again over the trendline. Each trade is it's own trade and there are no hard and fast rules. Some trading entity may simply be trying to shake out those who are looking at the "obvious", and are looking to buy. I wish I could give you a hard and fast rule, but I can't - there are none. I like to see 2 days of trendline break to increase probablities...many times a break will move my view to fibonacci levels and horizontal support/resistance levels. Combining fundamentals, technicals and personal portfolio management practices is what is needed in all trading. Price oscillators in hourly, daily, weekly and monthly calculations helps, see Bill Cara trading techniques for above.

Good luck to all CARAISTAS! (where do I get a t-shirt?).

David said “In the case of UXG, we know that it will take one positive news announcement for the stock to rise to new highs, and even if that happens in 3 years, buying UXG now will still be a good investment (with Buffet-like returns) at the current prices.”

With all due respect this statement is pure fantasy. A positive announcement may help the company. No one knows if in three years this stock will return “Buffet-like returns” What exactly are Buffet-like returns anyway? Plus 20% annual returns?

If UXG’s drill results continue to disappoint this stock will go below $1.

Buffet looks for companies with a durable competitive advantage. Let me say that again, Buffet looks for companies with a durable competitive advantage.

UXG is digging in dirt looking for gold. There is no durable competitive advantage with UXG, just speculation on the jockey and its land holdings.

That said, I congratulate you on your option strategy.

Here is a list of stocks Buffet thinks has durable competitive advantage. I say this because he owns them. The list may be incomplete and not fully up to date. He also has a tendency to buy companies out right and take them private under Berkshire.

KO
AXP
WFC
PG
MCO
BNI
JNJ
WSC
BUD
WPO
COP
UNP
WMT
USG
USB
MTB
NKE
NSC
TYC
CMCSA
COST
GE
STI
AMP
IRM
LOW
TMK
SNY
HD
UPS
PTR
UNH
NUE

NYUGrad,
I firmly believe, with 750 of skin in the game, that HRB will report very negative news on Dec 11th. The price target upgrade is so we buy and Friends and Family get out before earnings. There is no way Fannie or Freddie can buy any loans right now. And ask yourself another question How much did Option One add to their balance sheet? Even if it was only 25%, that would put their stock in the 14's. A bailout is all that will save them now.

And hopefully RIMM drops again tomorrow!!!!

Rob.

I like the convenience of StockCharts "Extra" for quick reference to D/W/M charts which I "Bookmark" in my Browser.

Also, for those who haven't noticed it, there is a "Chart School" for free. For example,here is a link to their "Trading Strategies" site:
http://tinyurl.com/yp4lt5

g034:

"by selling on a trendline break... A security can momentarily break a trendline, suck in sellers... Each trade is it's own trade... I like to see 2 days of trendline break to increase probablities... combining fundamentals, technicals and personal portfolio management practices is what is needed in all trading...

Posted by: g034 at December 5, 2007 12:20 AM

I found this very helpful.

NYUgrad:

You have taught me 'we trade prices' not the news or anything else...

I am perplexed on my next move.

Posted by: NYUgrad at December 4, 2007 10:54 PM

There is an old football saying..."When in doubt, PUNT": which I see you already have done with HRB.

There should be little perplexity...you punted, now you play defence.

Good Morning.

Here are your U/D's to the Cara 100:

Upgrade:

TGP - to Buy @ Citigroup

Have a profitable day.

Bill - Could I get you to comment on CEF (Central Fund of Canada)?

For those who don't know, CEF is a closed end fund (cef) in Canada, that also trades on our AMEX, which unlike GLD actually buys and stores gold and silver bullion in its vault for each share sold (with some cash allowance). Unlike GLD, CEF will occasionally sell at a premium (or a discount) to the actual gold value in its vaults. Unlike GLD, CEF can rise and fall as a reflection of the value of the Canadian Dollar vs the $US. Unlike GLD, CEF pays a monthly distribution (small).

For small account investors, CEF has an advantage over GLD in that it sells for about an eighth of the price per share for GLD; thus, one can buy 800 shares to equal the price of 1 share of GLD, or have just one eighth the volatility of GLD by buying just the one share of CEF.

Not being a Canadian, I don't know the reputation of CEF's management, or history, or gov relations. Thanks.