This weekend, I found that I didn’t have particularly strong feelings as much as say a week ago. One of the factors is the low volumes expected in the US in this vacation week. Another is that there are a lot of stocks down near the short-term Accumulation Zone with Buy alerts that have popped up for some and relatively close for others.

So, the Bulls could fight back, and I’m rather indifferent.

The final five minutes on Friday showed me that the Energy sector (XLE), which had been the rocket used at the open and with 25 minutes to go in the session, to send the broad market higher, pulled back a bit. I see that move as loading up ammo for Monday morning, but in spite of that, I am still not at all convinced the broad market is trending higher.

This being Thanksgiving week, volume will be one of the year’s lowest, so big moves are not expected. It’s probably a good time to sit back and look at the big picture.

Overall, I see the market trend as falling, to be led by the Energy and Basic Material sectors with Industrials and Consumer Discretionary not far behind. With rates falling -- how about that 10-year US Treasury Note yielding -4.16 pct -- the Banks and Utilities may hang in for now. I’ll be interested to see if the big banks can rally this market.

There may be a small bounce here, largely due to a further pull-back in commodity prices that I am anticipating, but at the end of the present long-term cycle, I do expect all ten major sectors of the equity market to be significantly lower.

Remember, there are reasons why commodity prices fall, and it’s usually caused by central banks and/or HB&B tightening or by the general economy slowing. Such conditions make it hard for the Bulls to rally much.

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International Economics Review

There isn’t much economic data coming out this week. This is a major travel week.

US Economic Calendar for next week.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

RSI > 70 (2)

RSI < 30 (8)

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals. (Screenshots will return after I get a new webmaster/techie)

“Jock” reports:

THIS WEEK saw  1 GREEN industry (tobacco) and 20 RED, compared to last week’s 0 green, 20 Red.
 
(insert weekly impulse chart)
 
Of the Cara 100 components, 14 are GREEN (last week: 11) , 52 are RED - (last week: 59):
 
(insert Cara 100 tables)
 
The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis,  were (green/red):
 
(insert table: index components green-red)
 
ALL major US stock indices (DJIA, NDX, S&P500, Nasdaq, Russell2000, Wiltshire4500) stayed RED this week, as did Shanghai.  Hong Kong, and Bombay stayed neutral.
 
The CRB commodity index fell to NEUTRAL.  GOLD & SILVER stocks fell to NEUTRAL.
 
The US dollar index rose to NEUTRAL, and gained 0.62% over last week’s close.
 
BOTTOM LINE: There was minimal change this week in the industries, or stock indices. All index components saw less RED; all but NDX saw more GREEN. Commodities backed off a bit, and the dollar index gained a bit.
 
Time for a bit of levity regarding Wall Street’s expected “Last Laugh” on  the “dodgy debt” crisis:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their  “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
 
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

For newbie traders, I do recommend Dr. Elder’s books, and I hear from many of you that his boot camps are well worth the time and money. And if you are interested in learning more about technical analysis, i recommend all the work done by Martin Pring.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29)

A week ago, the DJIA closed at 13043, and I remarked that there was an over-sold condition and likely rally back to about 13300. Here’s what I wrote:

Monday and Tuesday gave little indication for the 600 point drop in the Dow 30 from the opening Wednesday through the close Friday. But be wary of that extremely weak close on Friday (13042.7). Usually that is a trap, to set up a possible rally off a strong open on Monday -- say from 13200, with an attempt, using the support of TH’s on FETV, to push through the technical resistance that will be at 13300.

On the Monday, the Bulls did all they could to stem the sell-off, and when the 13000 level held, it was Tuesday when the Bulls tried to rally the market on the back of the Tech and Telecom sectors, closing at the 13300 resistance. On Wednesday, however, they saw that resistance in the 13000-13350 zone was too strong to break-through, and the Bears took control, taking the Dow 30 down to a close just over 13200, and on Thursday to a close about 13100. That’s where the index traded, between 13100- and 13200 on Friday, closing with a 75-point flourish in the last 25-minutes.

The technical indicators reflect a weakening market. While I doubt that the low volume Thanksgiving week will show much if any change, any trend direction is likely to be sideways at best. The Bulls could try to move the market up into a right-side head-and-shoulders formation based on commodity prices, and how that will relieve the pressure on Mom & Pop yada yada. But that story will soon get old, and traders will see that the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials are sagging, based on a slowing US economy. They will then shift their focus to the corporate earnings picture for these companies as well as for the Techs and Consumers.

I have pointed out for several weeks now that “selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.”

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite acted pretty much like the DJIA this week, with Monday serving as a line in the sand to stem the tide. Then at the end of the day, there was another one of those “Sell the close, and gather ammo for the open” tactics by the Bulls as the Nasdaq index plunged from 2620 to 2585 in minutes. The support that I had anticipated kicked in and on Tuesday the index opened at about 2625 and was rocketed up to a close near 2675.

Wednesday, however, was a day of reckoning as the flourish of opening orders, that started the day off at close to 2695 quickly fell to a trading range of 2660-2680. Even that didn’t hold as there was selling into the close, like for the Dow 30, that took the index down to 2640, and then back to 2600 on Friday morning.

Again, just like the Dow, there was a couple pump jobs during the session, including the last 20 minutes, that boosted the Nasdaq from a losing position on the week to a small winner, up +0.35 pct on the week (after going up +0.72 pct on the day).

I didn’t see anything this week that changes my outlook from last week, which is that “this index is likely to drop quickly to the 2400 level where upon there will be some gathering of the remaining Bulls to thwart a collapse below 2350. That 2350-2400 level is where I believe the next big fight will be.”

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week the scoreboard reads 1 up (call it flat) and 9 down. That's consistent with the DJIA, of which 25 components were up, and 2 down.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLP	28.57	0.13	0.46%	2.47%	2.00%	3.03%	8.71%	7.73%	3.66%	10.52%
IYH	71.02	0.48	0.68%	1.85%	0.45%	0.87%	6.86%	6.48%	-1.36%	8.03%
IYZ	29.69	0.26	0.88%	1.40%	-6.04%	-9.34%	0.10%	-5.11%	-10.95%	5.06%
XLF	30.40	-0.29	-0.94%	0.86%	-4.58%	-6.86%	-17.66%	-8.30%	-19.81%	-15.98%
XLY	34.08	0.04	0.12%	0.50%	-4.51%	-5.33%	-11.53%	-3.46%	-13.28%	-10.74%
XLI	38.75	-0.05	-0.13%	-0.44%	-3.53%	-2.39%	9.99%	3.00%	1.15%	9.53%
SMH	32.79	0.09	0.28%	-0.46%	-4.26%	-7.97%	-2.32%	-8.92%	-12.44%	-7.50%
XLU	41.68	0.01	0.02%	-0.60%	-0.57%	5.20%	13.20%	8.83%	-2.39%	15.78%
XLE	72.40	1.60	2.26%	-2.75%	-4.26%	-2.75%	27.96%	11.21%	10.20%	27.85%
XLB	40.31	0.01	0.02%	-2.94%	-5.44%	-4.25%	16.47%	10.74%	0.40%	18.49%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) lost -2.75 pct W/W to close at 72.40. That included Friday’s huge rally of +2.26 pct.

Exxon (XOM) down -2.01 pct W/W and -2.87 pct the previous Fri., is off -5.0 pct in 6 sessions, and now down to $85.10. That’s a $10 haircut or, in terms of the big picture, a loss of $55 billion in market cap in a month.

Now you know why I was opining that it would be wise to sell XOM into strength a month ago, and why, last week, I wrote: “ I won’t harp on this, but Mr. Exxon is down to 86.85 and headed lower.”

Chevron, too, is just the same. CVX dropped -1.47 pct this week plus -2.15 pct the prior Fri., for a loss of just shy of -4.0 pct in six sessions.

I still believe that after the pull-back kicks into high gear, it could be a few months, maybe longer, before share prices look attractive again. There are a growing number who think the SIV problems will so damage the US economy that it will take a couple years to repair, in which case the domestic oils will likely be out of favor for a long time.

While I do accept the notion that oil is harder to recover, and the costs are rising so quick that cheap oil is no longer the case, I also know that with the bountiful oil sands of the world able to produce oil in the 40’s, newer discovery and extraction technologies coming along all the time, and oil alternatives like solar, wind, uranium, etc, coming into their own, there was no reason for oil prices to close the prior week at 96.32, as I remarked.

In any case, Crude Oil closed this week down -2.48/bbl (-2.57 pct) to 93.84, and I think it’s going lower. In time, I think the price will work itself down to about 75. The 200-day Moving average sits at 71.53. But, as I say this average is “moving”. The 50-day MA is now at 85.79 and rising, so in a month or two, the 200-day MA will likely move up through 75, which is where I think the current price will intersect it.

Trading is an attempt to hit a moving target like a quarterback throwing to a receiver in motion. Too much time is spent looking back. More of it needs to be focused on the days, weeks and months ahead.

A week ago I wrote, “Cdn oil sands companies in the Cara 100 did poorly this week. Imperial Oil (IMO) was down -3.6 pct and Suncor (SU) down -2.4 pct.” this week IMO dropped -5.3 pct, SU was down -5.9 pct and EnCana (ECA) fell -4.9 pct, so it was another bad week as foreigners pulled their capital out of the Canadian oils, dropping the Loonie -3.4 pct W/W and the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Canadian ETF (EWC) about -5.6 pct.

I started writing about the Oils a month ago -- some say picking on XOM -- because the picture is more transparent than the one say within HB&B who are only going to tell us they have problems when their CEO has a knife in his back and told to jump overboard. Even then, we are not going to often hear from the likes of the Wells Fargo CEO who this week admitted the US housing industry crisis is the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

As an aside, knowing that Mr. Buffett has such a huge stake in Wells Fargo, do you think the Wells Fargo CEO believes his straight-talking Boss wants to hear the truth? Maybe, he’s angling for the big job after Buffett retires? Do you think? LOL

In any case, the US economy is slowing, and oil prices are likely headed down. And in every Bear market, it’s the speculative positions in commodities that get blown up, so that’s a double whammy.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CVX	85.98	1.82	2.16%	-1.47%	-2.83%	-3.69%	21.15%	5.64%	6.50%	25.43%
PBR	105.77	5.99	6.00%	-1.85%	13.37%	31.05%	112.26%	97.48%	98.67%	137.05%
XOM	85.10	0.61	0.72%	-2.01%	-3.22%	-7.64%	14.83%	5.49%	4.48%	17.10%
TOT	79.99	2.00	2.56%	-3.24%	0.97%	1.07%	12.71%	14.26%	9.53%	14.34%
ECA	68.04	0.68	1.01%	-4.91%	-6.13%	4.44%	50.07%	19.39%	12.59%	38.21%
IMO	52.91	0.66	1.26%	-5.25%	-3.83%	7.61%	48.37%	34.60%	25.05%	45.80%
SU	102.27	2.50	2.51%	-5.86%	-5.78%	-1.87%	38.37%	21.17%	22.48%	35.40%
CEO	163.26	-3.19	-1.92%	-7.24%	-21.13%	-8.54%	73.18%	68.27%	80.48%	91.08%
STO	30.87	0.38	1.25%	-7.49%	-7.66%	-6.11%	20.16%	18.69%	14.80%	15.66%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) lost -2.94 pct this week after falling -2.58 pct the prior week. That’s quite a stumble.

XLB closed the week at 40.17 after hitting a low on Friday of 39.76. It opened Oct 29 at 44.14. That’s quite a haircut (-9.0 pct) in 15 sessions.

Do I want to talk about Gold here or later?

(WIR#45 Nov 10): Even $GOLD was down on Friday after having such a stellar week. But goldminer shares were down on the week, and took a hit on Friday, which is a warning shot over the bow.

This week, $GOLD plummeted -47.70 an ounce (-5.71 pct). Don’t you just love it when the Trader Wizard puts up the right colored flag?

This week, Teck (TCK) dropped -11.0 pct, Rio Tinto -7.5 pct, and some major steelmakers, Nucor (NUE) and MittalArcelor (MT) -4.3 pct and -3.1 pct respectively.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GGB	30.03	1.06	3.66%	3.44%	-0.30%	6.11%	82.89%	54.87%	35.64%	99.93%
TS	48.25	1.27	2.70%	3.43%	-6.33%	-5.60%	-0.56%	13.37%	6.23%	10.79%
PKX	158.95	2.34	1.49%	1.85%	-4.48%	-0.25%	100.11%	27.67%	40.44%	118.37%
RIO	35.40	0.90	2.61%	-0.84%	-2.69%	6.43%	22.83%	-7.35%	-22.01%	35.06%
BHP	74.73	0.63	0.85%	-1.42%	-10.75%	-9.57%	92.26%	42.97%	44.94%	86.41%
AA	36.31	-0.02	-0.06%	-2.10%	-5.84%	-3.02%	23.80%	13.75%	-6.99%	28.26%
MT	70.75	1.20	1.73%	-3.10%	-6.56%	-8.86%	73.41%	31.46%	23.39%	73.11%
NUE	52.46	1.48	2.90%	-4.25%	-9.41%	-11.28%	-3.74%	14.39%	-20.96%	-4.95%
RTP	442.43	1.47	0.33%	-7.51%	19.34%	29.69%	116.77%	88.55%	55.88%	114.87%
TCK	42.12	0.25	0.60%	-11.03%	-13.23%	-12.70%	-39.18%	12.14%	3.41%	-39.93%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ERJ	48.83	0.87	1.81%	5.49%	1.98%	1.86%	19.74%	16.26%	3.48%	14.33%
MMM	81.57	1.92	2.41%	2.59%	-3.91%	-5.83%	4.23%	-4.48%	-5.16%	1.59%
UTX	74.30	0.35	0.47%	1.07%	-1.78%	-2.24%	18.29%	4.53%	8.50%	11.29%
GE	38.65	0.34	0.89%	0.70%	-4.17%	-3.47%	1.79%	3.90%	4.94%	7.48%
CAT	69.44	-0.29	-0.42%	-1.38%	-7.12%	-5.61%	13.54%	-4.88%	-8.57%	13.15%
FDX	96.80	-4.57	-4.51%	-2.95%	-5.50%	-6.31%	-11.82%	-7.07%	-11.14%	-18.06%
HON	55.88	-1.28	-2.24%	-3.25%	-5.85%	-4.18%	23.90%	3.25%	-3.89%	28.99%
BA	89.99	-1.35	-1.48%	-4.48%	-7.95%	-4.16%	0.92%	-2.97%	-5.61%	1.44%
ABB	27.97	0.22	0.79%	-6.58%	-9.10%	3.06%	56.96%	31.44%	38.12%	75.80%

XLI (Industrials) lost -0.44 pct W/W to close at 38.75, which was ok because the prior week’s loss was -3.1 pct.

After Fedex (FDX) dropped -2.63 pct the prior week, there was an attempt to rally it this week -- looks good for the “America Open for Business” nonsense -- but, then along came Friday... when FDX was hammered -4.5 pct, closing the stock down -3.0 pct on the week.

Woe is American business. When the shippers shut down, can the recession be far behind?

Anyway, last week I did opine that FDX “is breaking down. Most of the rest in my table -- and these are mostly high quality companies -- were down from -3 to -6 pct on the week.” This week, the losers were ABB (ABB) down -6.6 pct, Boeing (BA) -4.5 pct, and Honeywell (HON) -3.3 pct. But, Brazil’s Embraer (ERJ) gained +5.5 pct W/W.

With not much relevant econ news to come this week, there may be a small lift in the XLI, but frankly, I see lower prices in the weeks after that.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) perked up a bit this week, gaining +0.50 pct, to close at 34.08. I think that was a small bounce following a loss of -7.1 pct in six sessions.

A week ago, I wrote: “This week, JC Penny (JCP) collapsed -12.0 pct and Starbucks (SBUX -11.6 pct W/W) was close behind.”

Well, this week, JCP dropped a further -7.9 pct, down to $43.19, which is about half what it was in late February.

Yes, “this picture will not get better until consumers have tickee, ie, disposable income to spend. Instead, people are having their homes foreclosed.”

SBUX, which dropped -11.6 pct a week ago, closed this week up +2.7 pct, which was not a latte bounce. In fact, Friday’s grind dropped the price -3.9 pct for the day.

Even McDonald’s (MCD) is getting into the act... “Dress down, close your eyes and ears to the sniveling kids, and enjoy our deep-discount prices for your daily Cup of Joe.” NOT

Coffee at Starbucks is a social outing. It’s just that with the reverse wealth effect happening, we’re not feeling all that sociable these days. Things will improve. I don’t know when, though. Maybe that new Exec VP of Partners will bring in the Hooter’s Girls? Do you think? LOL

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SBUX	23.17	-0.93	-3.86%	2.66%	-9.24%	-11.23%	-34.27%	-12.93%	-17.84%	-41.33%
CCL	44.91	0.21	0.47%	2.32%	-2.58%	-4.95%	-11.85%	3.27%	-6.22%	-10.00%
TM	110.20	-0.28	-0.25%	2.17%	-2.48%	3.57%	-18.55%	-3.26%	-10.05%	-10.10%
WHR	76.16	-2.19	-2.80%	0.95%	-3.75%	-11.59%	-10.04%	-17.93%	-31.75%	-13.78%
NKE	62.64	-0.41	-0.65%	0.69%	-1.93%	-1.09%	28.28%	17.77%	18.21%	31.54%
DIS	32.53	0.13	0.40%	-0.64%	-4.10%	-3.79%	-4.88%	-0.15%	-9.66%	-1.60%
EBAY	32.74	0.61	1.90%	-2.15%	-6.51%	-10.84%	8.52%	-2.68%	-1.53%	-1.71%
BC	20.51	-0.70	-3.30%	-3.62%	-7.32%	2.55%	-35.75%	-14.61%	-37.55%	-36.81%
JCP	43.19	-1.14	-2.57%	-7.89%	-18.95%	-21.97%	-44.67%	-32.66%	-42.96%	-47.09%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	46.34	0.14	0.30%	8.02%	4.87%	3.02%	-2.54%	6.53%	-1.78%	-3.28%
WAG	39.97	0.38	0.96%	4.91%	2.20%	5.60%	-13.24%	-11.41%	-11.73%	-6.44%
WFMI	45.31	-0.49	-1.07%	4.45%	-7.36%	-4.11%	-0.37%	10.06%	13.79%	-8.39%
PG	73.19	1.36	1.89%	3.93%	5.23%	3.38%	13.40%	14.31%	15.59%	15.22%
KO	62.62	0.67	1.08%	2.94%	3.49%	6.57%	28.90%	17.31%	18.73%	32.84%
ABV	74.75	1.23	1.67%	1.84%	-9.37%	-1.57%	52.24%	34.52%	15.64%	57.80%
PEP	74.15	0.57	0.77%	0.91%	1.60%	5.33%	18.22%	8.45%	8.03%	19.98%
MO	73.18	0.91	1.26%	0.65%	1.48%	3.80%	12.72%	10.28%	4.56%	16.68%
DEO	89.30	0.37	0.42%	0.12%	-2.67%	-1.11%	12.28%	13.05%	5.57%	18.01%
BUD	49.74	-0.07	-0.14%	-0.14%	-1.82%	-3.06%	1.06%	5.94%	-1.07%	5.67%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) gained a striking +2.47 pct to close at 28.57 this week, giving this sector the #1 ranking.

I week ago I wrote: “InBev (ABV -11.0 pct) and Whole Foods Market (WFMI -11.3 pct) were torched this week, but the defensive stalwarts (PG, MO, PEP and KO) were up a bit. This is classic flight to safety stuff. It’s about the only thing that an independent Talking Head (one who hasn’t been totally bought and paid for) wants to discuss on Financial entertainment TV.”

So, yessirree, this is “classic flight to safety stuff”. Straight to Wal-Mart (WMT +8.0 pct W/W to 46.34) and Walgreen’s (WAG +4.9 pct).

The two Wallies would have been tied except a week ago I happened to go on and on about the Greatness from Bentonville. I wrote: “ The WMT is presently $42.90, undergoing a re-test of the Sept low. What I suggest is to buy the stock on weakness this week, or write a ton of 40 puts, or both.”

Ka-ching. Ka-ching.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JNJ	67.75	0.87	1.30%	3.97%	4.58%	5.48%	2.03%	9.93%	7.45%	1.83%
UNH	53.42	0.40	0.75%	3.39%	9.15%	12.58%	1.62%	9.33%	-0.71%	12.18%
PFE	23.39	0.10	0.43%	2.45%	-1.18%	-2.83%	-11.03%	0.00%	-14.39%	-12.59%
AMGN	55.49	0.70	1.28%	2.23%	-2.00%	-0.82%	-18.87%	12.31%	2.14%	-23.40%
NVS	52.84	0.05	0.09%	1.42%	0.44%	0.48%	-9.12%	1.91%	-8.01%	-9.24%
AET	54.92	0.07	0.13%	0.55%	0.99%	3.92%	28.08%	12.40%	5.49%	32.59%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
DNA	74.99	0.46	0.62%	-0.13%	0.21%	-0.01%	-8.33%	2.42%	-4.51%	-7.10%
GSK	48.95	-0.33	-0.67%	-1.55%	-3.68%	-3.57%	-9.03%	-1.71%	-13.82%	-5.81%
BMY	27.79	0.04	0.14%	-1.77%	-3.77%	-5.22%	5.34%	1.53%	-7.61%	12.69%

IYH (healthcare) gained +1.87 pct W/W to close at 71.02. But IYH lost -1.37 pct a week ago and is up just +0.87 pct over 4 weeks, which is not too hot.

The winner was Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) up +4.0 pct and United Health again (UNH +3.4 pct W/W) and the loser was BristolMyers (BMY -1.8 pct).

Btw, Johnson & Johnson makes Band-Aid, which are adhesive bandages used to cover small wounds. If your wounds from trying to catch falling knives get worse, you can always fall back on your United Health plan.

I think when the mayhem of this Bear is over, perhaps a year or two from now, there will be a lot of institutional investors institutionalized. Band-Aids will not suffice.

Some of you are starting to catch on because I see UNH is up from a low of 48.12 this month to a close of 53.42 on Friday. How are the accommodations, anyway? Spread the word.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
LEH	62.38	-0.59	-0.94%	7.42%	3.76%	9.02%	-20.67%	13.94%	-14.96%	-17.85%
GS	225.25	-1.77	-0.78%	6.59%	-1.89%	3.47%	12.22%	32.62%	-0.82%	14.50%
MER	56.11	-1.19	-2.08%	5.33%	-2.04%	-15.32%	-40.06%	-21.12%	-39.33%	-38.39%
UBS	47.55	-0.20	-0.42%	4.07%	-3.49%	-12.78%	-22.54%	-8.79%	-25.27%	-22.21%
C	34.00	-0.58	-1.68%	2.72%	-9.89%	-19.74%	-38.46%	-28.50%	-38.08%	-32.89%
JPM	43.09	-0.44	-1.01%	1.84%	-0.14%	-4.29%	-10.36%	-5.23%	-18.67%	-9.95%
DB	123.48	0.45	0.37%	1.38%	-2.43%	-1.22%	-8.76%	-2.12%	-21.38%	-2.86%
CS	60.28	0.03	0.05%	1.23%	-4.33%	-8.39%	-14.02%	-7.69%	-20.80%	-7.83%
HBC	87.31	0.04	0.05%	-0.71%	-7.83%	-7.02%	-6.09%	-0.31%	-6.31%	-7.50%
MS	52.90	-0.37	-0.69%	-2.40%	-10.19%	-14.61%	-35.19%	-10.29%	-37.08%	-32.77%

This week, the Financial ETF (XLF) recovered from the prior week’s free fall. XLF gained +0.86 pct although Friday’s loss was -0.94 pct, closing the week at 30.40.

Lehman (LEH +7.4 pct), Goldman Sachs (GS +6.6 pct) and Merrill Lynch (MER +5.3 pct) led the way.

What concerns me is that traders allow themselves to be all hyped when HB&B rakes in the profits, but then ignores the impact of multi-billion dollar losses. When all the laundry is washed and more than a few Managing Directors are hung out to dry, I’m sure the losses will be much bigger than represented or guided today.

“The Street is a mess. We just don’t yet know how bad it is.” (Earlier WIR)

Last week I added, “We do know things will go from bad to worse. What we have to be careful about is that central bankers slip (HB&B) a trillion dollars to mend the errors of their ways so life as we know it can go forward.”

I think the Bernanke Reflation Plan goes like this: “A trillion here, a trillion there, should do it, and cutting rates ought to make the People happy.” That’s true, until they realize that their mortgages are not cheaper, their credit card debt not cheaper, inflation is rising, and stock prices are falling.

With two new executive placements this week, I’m surprised Goldman Sachs didn’t have a bigger pop. I wonder when they start the re-org work at Citi and Merrill.

MER took a loss of -2.1 pct on Friday. Maybe they are getting the word.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QCOM	41.36	0.55	1.35%	8.56%	0.05%	2.60%	10.41%	12.00%	-8.19%	9.42%
ORCL	20.80	0.38	1.86%	7.44%	-5.58%	0.24%	18.79%	8.67%	9.53%	8.90%
CSCO	29.94	0.64	2.18%	4.76%	-7.91%	-4.95%	7.93%	2.18%	13.07%	10.28%
CTSH	31.40	0.31	1.00%	1.98%	-23.23%	-21.54%	-19.24%	-16.13%	-19.18%	-21.73%
INTC	25.51	-0.02	-0.08%	1.43%	-4.81%	-3.00%	25.36%	10.43%	15.01%	14.24%
ADSK	46.41	-1.05	-2.21%	0.54%	-4.92%	-1.17%	14.42%	8.92%	5.96%	25.43%
INFY	42.15	0.91	2.21%	0.33%	-16.73%	-13.49%	-24.49%	-7.97%	-18.06%	-25.12%
SAP	51.24	0.60	1.18%	-0.60%	-3.77%	-4.33%	-3.68%	-0.70%	10.05%	-1.02%
ADBE	42.19	1.37	3.36%	-2.43%	-11.88%	-8.82%	5.69%	5.58%	-0.24%	0.81%
SNDK	37.36	0.09	0.24%	-4.08%	-15.91%	-12.53%	-10.45%	-27.62%	-15.93%	-19.98%

SMH (semi-conductors) dropped -0.46 pct W/W to close at 32.79. At the close five weeks ago, this ETF was sitting at 38.45. How fast the mighty fall

Qualcomm (QCOM), Oracle (ORCL) and Cisco (CSCO) were the Tech winners this week, going up +8.6 pct, +7.4 pct and +4.7 pct.

SanDisk (SNDK) dropped another -4.1 pct.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

After a couple weeks of enormous losses, this week IYZ (telecommunications) recovered +1.40 pct W/W to close at 29.69. The gain was insignificant compared to the losses over 4 weeks. Over that span, this sector is the worst performer.

Verizon (VZ +2.2 pct W/W) and AT&T (T +0.89 pct) were up. Over 4 weeks, VZ is down -1.3 pct and T -4.4 pct.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

Last week, XLU (Utilities) was the only one on the major sector board to gain. The gain was +0.91 pct and this week it was +0.02 pct. This week, the loss was -0.60 pct, so nothing much is happening here despite the falling interest rates. However, over four weeks, XLU is the #1 performer.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.29	3.19	3.13	3.84
6 Month	3.42	3.40	3.49	3.99
2 Year	3.33	3.32	3.40	3.97
3 Year	3.24	3.22	3.36	3.99
5 Year	3.69	3.67	3.75	4.21
10 Year	4.16	4.14	4.22	4.55
30 Year	4.53	4.53	4.60	4.83

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.30	3.31	3.32	3.39
2yr AAA	3.29	3.31	3.31	3.41
2yr A	3.42	3.43	3.42	3.45
5yr AAA	3.43	3.46	3.43	3.51
5yr AA	3.46	3.41	3.39	3.50
5yr A	3.53	3.56	3.53	3.76
10yr AAA	3.82	3.86	3.85	3.77
10yr AA	3.77	3.89	3.89	3.75
10yr A	4.05	4.09	4.08	3.90
20yr AAA	4.48	4.49	4.47	4.42
20yr AA	4.67	4.68	4.67	4.62
20yr A	5.13	5.13	5.07	4.43

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.38	4.30	4.33	4.70
2yr A	4.59	4.56	4.49	4.85
5yr AAA	4.69	4.60	4.57	4.89
5yr AA	4.99	4.96	4.99	5.11
5yr A	4.83	4.86	4.90	5.14
10yr AAA	5.21	5.06	5.27	5.39
10yr AA	5.66	5.63	5.73	5.62
10yr A	5.68	5.74	5.79	5.68
20yr AAA	5.58	5.65	5.63	5.80
20yr AA	5.79	5.79	5.89	5.99
20yr A	6.04	6.10	6.05	6.14

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Yields in the bond market continue to fall. There is a steady move to safety.

US Treasury yields dropped -7, -6, -6 and -7 basis points to 4.53, 4.16, 3.69 and 3.33 pct for the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper, respectively.

The yield on the 3-month T-Bills has gained +16 bp to 3.29 pct.

A few weeks ago, I opined that if the yields dropped further, there would be a recession. Money would just sit in bonds. Few traders would take risk. Capital intensive projects will dry up.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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This week, TLT and TIP gained +1.18 and +0.31 pct respectively.

When you look at these charts from the end of June, when the Consumer Spending disappeared and the Credit Fiasco appeared, the Bond market seems to be shouting, “Recession dead ahead!”

It is hard to believe that the 10-year Treasury issue is now yielding just +4.16 pct.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	92.41	0.13	0.14%	1.18%	1.50%	2.16%	3.75%	6.05%	5.17%	3.32%
SHY	81.99	0.00	0.00%	0.31%	0.76%	0.69%	2.44%	1.40%	2.27%	2.42%
IEF	86.10	0.00	0.00%	0.29%	1.19%	1.40%	4.14%	3.77%	4.19%	4.00%
AGG	100.99	-0.07	-0.07%	0.19%	0.44%	0.26%	1.08%	2.35%	1.08%	0.93%
TIP	105.12	0.21	0.20%	-0.22%	1.09%	2.09%	5.94%	4.95%	5.15%	5.55%
FRE	40.72	-1.14	-2.72%	-2.35%	-15.75%	-23.24%	-40.02%	-33.31%	-39.52%	-40.63%
CFC	12.07	-0.14	-1.15%	-12.73%	-15.89%	-20.75%	-71.34%	-36.31%	-70.07%	-70.37%
FNM	40.69	-2.35	-5.46%	-16.96%	-22.66%	-30.86%	-32.02%	-37.67%	-35.65%	-31.10%

The plunge in the share prices of Countrywide, Freddie and Fannie continues. This week, CFC went down -12.7 pct; FNM down -17.0 pct and FRE down -2.4 pct.

Have you looked at the YTD performance? CFC is down -71.3 pct (-20.8 pct in 4 weeks); FNM -32.0 pct (but -30.9 pct in 4 weeks); and FRE down -40.0 pct (-23.2 in 4 weeks).

It was just a couple months ago that HB&B was telling you the worst of the credit markets was over. NOT.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

After the $CRB had a tenth weekly gain in the past 11, this week the index dropped -5.1 pct (-1.44 pct W/W) to close at 349.43.

There may have been a turn this week. Friday closed up +0.85 pct, but there was an enormous drop during the day. The spike high on Tuesday of 367.05 was probably the peak, and its downhill for the index from here. I think the 50-day MA will be tested probably within a week (at about 345), and then the 200-day MA (a few weeks later at about 325).

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is presently at 337.02 and the 200-day MA is 318.42, and rising.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Crude Oil futures are starting to fall. “Come in Houston. Prices had cleared orbit. Thanks for bringing them back to earth.” Soon anyways.

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) fell from 96.32, a record high weekly close, to 93.84, down -2.48/bbl (2.57 pct).

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 85.79 and the 200d MA is 71.53. I expect the decent to intersect the 50-day MA at about 87.50 (soon) and then the 200-day MA at about 75-76 a few weeks later.

Oil stocks (XLE) have been falling, and it was a matter of time with the $WTIC.

I don’t see any hope for the stocks of the Big Oil companies of the US to rally in the next month with the $USD rising, the economy slowing and Crude Oil prices falling. They have reported smaller earnings and the forward quarters are looking poor as well according to Value line.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

A week ago, I wrote: “(There are) powerful reason(s) for the long-term picture to be so rosy for commodities. As a trader, however, my concern is the here and now. I continue to advise that prices are overblown and may come back hard on a heartbeat. I saw it in 1980 and 1981. Please stay alert... Since a low of 651.60 on August 17, $GOLD has zoomed to 834.70, a gain of +28.1 pct in 12 weeks. Another way of looking at it, I could say that is a whole Bull market in less than one quarter. Many of you have thanked me for keeping you in the game during those dog days of August when I was enjoying the beach.”

You had to know that I was urging you to save that hard-earned money. I kept saying, sell into strength, don’t give it back...” I can’t do more. I don’t even know who 99.9 pct of you people are, but I do know you are part of this Community, and my name is on it. So I will not mislead you.

This week, $GOLD plunged -47.70 (-5.71 pct), all of it in the first four days. The price is now 787.00, which is a long way from 834.70.

For $GOLD, the 50day MA is now 763.77 and the 200d MA is 693.30.

I expect the first test will be at the 50-day MA at about 770, and later the 200-day MA at about 700. Should $GOLD drop all the way to 700, back up the truck. Pay less attention to the stocks at that point because there will probably be a fully-grown Bear on the prowl. That Bear will eat the Good as well as the Bad and the Ugly.

But the Bear cannot hold back the inflationary costs facing the gold and silver miners, or make the exploration programs discover new gold, so the price of gold is going up, way up. There is not a doubt in my mind. Forget the $USD and focus on the all-in costs of the gold miners. In 2008, that cost will average in the 700’s, and low-grade and/or inefficient producing mines will be shut down rather than give the stuff away.

Only the central banks like to give the stuff away, and pretty soon they will be switching their selling habit for a buying habit because the price of gold is going a whole lot higher.

As and when that gold price soars, there will be a return to goldminer equities, and that will be the time to look seriously at the juniors and the miners that are steeply levered to higher gold prices.

However, I think that most likely the options and futures on the gold physical will be the next great market play after the cycle has dropped to a bottom. Now I don’t know where that bottom will be, other than by looking at the continuous RSI and MACD data series, and the MA prices I give you, but I do expect it to be much lower than the current price.

Fairly soon, there will be a purging of all speculative accounts at HB&B -- both theirs and the clients -- and all goods go on sale. In terms of gold and silver, that means a blow-out to come to clean out the weak hands and lay the groundwork for the Gold Bull to return.

At this point, nobody knows how the cycle will play out. It could be in harmony with the broad equities market or it could run counter-cyclical. Right now, I’m thinking the latter because I foresee higher $USD prices as the economy slows, and the broad market falls. Moreover, I think most traders now realize the overspending by government problem is not just an American phenomenon. It is all over the world, and all currencies are being depreciated.

That means the weakness that is present now and coming further may be short-lived, and the move to the cycle bottom could happen quickly, so don’t stray too far from the Buy button, or from this website and blog.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER lost -1.03/oz (-6.66 pct) to close at 14.51 after the week earlier gaining +0.95/oz (+6.48 pct).

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is 13.88 and the 200d MA is 13.37.

Last week I wrote that: “On August 17, the price hit a low of 11.06, so the move to 15.55 in twelve weeks is a gain of +40.6 pct.”

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT gained +23.70 (-1.65 pct) this week to close at 1456.20.

The gain on Friday was +2.09 pct, which more than made up the gain on the week. Will that gain continue this coming week? We’ll have to wait to see.

The 50d MA for $PLAT is 1398.37 and the 200d MA is 1307.49.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL lost -10.35/oz (-2.72 pct) to close at 370.75. The loss on Friday was -1.33 pct.

The 50d MA is 366.00 and the 200d MA is 363.48.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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This week, $COPPER gained +5.35/contract (+1.70 pct W/W) to close at 319.90.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 348.09 and the 200d MA is 333.50, so the current price (319.90) is below the 50MA and 200MA.

That may be saying that recession is closer at hand than we might think. On the other hand, I don’t have much feel for the copper market. This seems to be a market run by the Metal Men of Hug.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MDG	37.60	1.73	4.82%	-1.54%	-8.14%	-2.29%	43.02%	64.41%	50.16%	39.57%
AEM	50.90	1.41	2.85%	-4.31%	-11.32%	-5.20%	30.78%	36.86%	48.14%	36.61%
AUY	13.08	0.14	1.08%	-5.90%	-12.68%	-6.10%	6.08%	43.42%	-0.23%	20.00%
BVN	56.00	-0.13	-0.23%	-6.73%	-3.05%	6.77%	102.83%	66.82%	72.47%	108.88%
KGC	17.44	0.41	2.41%	-7.09%	-14.47%	3.07%	52.71%	59.85%	34.15%	51.92%
GFI	17.74	0.22	1.26%	-7.27%	-0.11%	-0.39%	-3.22%	29.77%	3.68%	5.78%
GG	32.21	0.83	2.64%	-7.34%	-9.83%	0.97%	17.81%	49.40%	38.12%	22.47%
NEM	49.69	0.89	1.82%	-8.05%	-3.72%	8.83%	12.42%	25.99%	25.35%	12.32%
ABX	41.02	0.65	1.61%	-9.73%	-10.08%	-1.39%	37.51%	37.28%	37.74%	44.13%

Last week I urged you: “I continue to advise not to get caught in a smash-up, so move your stops up, tighten your seat belts, and don’t hand back those hard-earned gains.”

This week, $XAU lost -14.06 (-7.53 pct) to close at 172.67. I hope you didn’t give back your profits.

There was a gain of +1.58 pct on Friday, which along with the gains in copper, platinum and silver and the drop in $USD has given the gold players some hope.

False hope, for now, I think.

The 50d MA is 173.35 and the 200d MA is 148.73.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The trade-weighted $USD index gained +0.62 pct W/W to 75.86. There may be a turn happening here, which I alerted you to a week ago, when I wrote: “The economy might be showing signs of a slowdown however, so maybe that will help the Fed drop rates, but also tighten liquidity through FOMC operations. That would strengthen the USD, and also help commercial banks continue to drop their prime rates, removing pressures from the imploding credit markets, which I think is the main reason why the USD (has been) plunging.” Pretty timely call, I’d say.

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates.”

Same old, same old.

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The Euro ($XEU) this week lost -0.07 (-0.05 pct) to close at 146.64.

The Euro’s 50d MA is 142.40 and the 200d MA is 136.56.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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This week, the Pound plummeted -3.98 (-1.90 pct) to close at 205.09. A week ago, I wrote: “Significantly, there was a loss of -0.82 pct on Friday!” That was a red flag.

The 50d MA is 204.45 and the 200d MA is 200.26.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) had a small gain this week (+0.19 +0.21 pct) to close at 90.24.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Canadian Loonie plunged 3.57 (-3.36 pct) this week, and that included a gain on Friday of +1.01 pct. It closed at 102.75 American.

Probably headed for 95 as the price of oil and metals falls, and foreigners start to pull their capital out of Canada in order to pay down debts, and avoid the Bear. Canada is known to have big ones. There are Grizzlies, Kodiaks, Brown, you name it. None of them friendly when hungry. and they don’t stop for coffee and a donut at Tim Horton’s.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 101.83 and the 200d MA is 93.56.

Last call (probably) for Canadians to buy ocean-front condos in Bahamas (US$ at par with B$).

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

There were some terrific gains and losses in international equity markets this week. India was up sharply and Canada hit the skids. The gain on Friday in Brazil was significant.

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	59.58	1.83	3.17%	8.68%	-5.95%	15.24%	31.41%	37.44%	42.30%	20.19%
EWZ	84.18	2.83	3.48%	1.10%	1.30%	11.33%	80.26%	64.16%	45.64%	94.55%
EWJ	13.49	-0.06	-0.44%	0.67%	-4.66%	-2.88%	-5.00%	-1.53%	-6.38%	-0.30%
QQQQ	50.28	0.46	0.92%	0.56%	-7.61%	-4.12%	16.28%	10.63%	8.01%	13.45%
SPY	145.79	0.25	0.17%	0.45%	-3.61%	-2.59%	3.13%	2.60%	-3.83%	3.85%
IEV	118.60	0.90	0.76%	-0.25%	-3.11%	-0.42%	12.31%	11.40%	2.24%	15.39%
TRF	68.50	1.09	1.62%	-0.91%	-5.95%	-1.23%	-22.64%	19.36%	1.63%	-8.67%
EWU	25.20	0.14	0.56%	-1.22%	-6.08%	-2.63%	7.01%	9.80%	-0.12%	8.48%
FXI	178.37	-4.13	-2.26%	-1.99%	-14.35%	-10.50%	53.24%	48.96%	53.13%	92.00%
EWC	32.33	0.43	1.35%	-5.58%	-9.97%	-3.67%	30.89%	17.48%	10.99%	29.22%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	46.34	0.14	0.30%	8.02%	4.87%	3.02%	-2.54%	6.53%	-1.78%	-3.28%
HPQ	50.75	1.85	3.78%	4.88%	-3.15%	-1.26%	21.94%	10.21%	12.25%	26.37%
IBM	104.79	1.19	1.15%	4.53%	-8.55%	-6.67%	7.73%	-4.47%	-1.02%	12.11%
MRK	58.38	0.46	0.79%	4.44%	4.18%	9.92%	32.62%	18.03%	10.80%	30.75%
JNJ	67.75	0.87	1.30%	3.97%	4.58%	5.48%	2.03%	9.93%	7.45%	1.83%
PG	73.19	1.36	1.89%	3.93%	5.23%	3.38%	13.40%	14.31%	15.59%	15.22%
AXP	58.67	0.43	0.74%	3.86%	0.43%	2.73%	-2.80%	0.86%	-8.30%	-1.51%
HD	29.07	0.09	0.31%	3.64%	-4.38%	-5.49%	-29.22%	-10.33%	-24.24%	-23.12%
KO	62.62	0.67	1.08%	2.94%	3.49%	6.57%	28.90%	17.31%	18.73%	32.84%
C	34.00	-0.58	-1.68%	2.72%	-9.89%	-19.74%	-38.46%	-28.50%	-38.08%	-32.89%
MMM	81.57	1.92	2.41%	2.59%	-3.91%	-5.83%	4.23%	-4.48%	-5.16%	1.59%
PFE	23.39	0.10	0.43%	2.45%	-1.18%	-2.83%	-11.03%	0.00%	-14.39%	-12.59%
VZ	43.69	0.65	1.51%	2.15%	-1.55%	-1.31%	15.52%	8.60%	2.22%	21.56%
JPM	43.09	-0.44	-1.01%	1.84%	-0.14%	-4.29%	-10.36%	-5.23%	-18.67%	-9.95%
INTC	25.51	-0.02	-0.08%	1.43%	-4.81%	-3.00%	25.36%	10.43%	15.01%	14.24%
UTX	74.30	0.35	0.47%	1.07%	-1.78%	-2.24%	18.29%	4.53%	8.50%	11.29%
MSFT	34.09	0.33	0.98%	1.07%	-8.01%	12.99%	14.17%	22.58%	9.72%	15.68%
T	39.55	0.18	0.46%	0.89%	-2.15%	-4.40%	13.16%	4.30%	-3.86%	22.07%
GE	38.65	0.34	0.89%	0.70%	-4.17%	-3.47%	1.79%	3.90%	4.94%	7.48%
MO	73.18	0.91	1.26%	0.65%	1.48%	3.80%	12.72%	10.28%	4.56%	16.68%
MCD	58.13	0.95	1.66%	-0.31%	-1.51%	3.03%	32.51%	20.93%	11.85%	39.50%
DIS	32.53	0.13	0.40%	-0.64%	-4.10%	-3.79%	-4.88%	-0.15%	-9.66%	-1.60%
AIG	56.44	-0.51	-0.90%	-1.09%	-4.53%	-10.80%	-21.77%	-11.74%	-22.11%	-22.00%
CAT	69.44	-0.29	-0.42%	-1.38%	-7.12%	-5.61%	13.54%	-4.88%	-8.57%	13.15%
XOM	85.10	0.61	0.72%	-2.01%	-3.22%	-7.64%	14.83%	5.49%	4.48%	17.10%
AA	36.31	-0.02	-0.06%	-2.10%	-5.84%	-3.02%	23.80%	13.75%	-6.99%	28.26%
DD	45.31	-0.06	-0.13%	-3.16%	-5.53%	-3.33%	-7.61%	-5.47%	-12.02%	-4.87%
HON	55.88	-1.28	-2.24%	-3.25%	-5.85%	-4.18%	23.90%	3.25%	-3.89%	28.99%
BA	89.99	-1.35	-1.48%	-4.48%	-7.95%	-4.16%	0.92%	-2.97%	-5.61%	1.44%
GM	29.27	-0.87	-2.89%	-6.43%	-20.87%	-22.15%	-0.61%	-4.87%	-7.78%	-17.62%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The companies reported this week by Value Line: Disney (DIS), which is a Cara 100, and 3M (MMM), which used to be until they lost their CEO James McNerney to Boeing.

Last week I made a ton of money for some of you! Do you recall what I wrote about Wal-Mart?

(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)

Why do I like Wal-Mart for trading purposes? Well, I know there are few companies in the world that can, without fail, increase their important metrics every year for 20 or more consecutive years. From the Value Line report, scan through the data for each year for Sales per share, Cash Flow per share, Earnings per share, Dividends per share and Book Value per share. For every year, for every metric, there is an increase.

Moreover, Value line projects double digit annual increases for every metric. Besides, they rate the Company’s financial strength A++, show that Return on Shareholder Equity is a consistent 20 pct, and project annual Total Returns of between +11 pct and +17 pct for each of the next five years.

What’s not to like?

Besides, the RSI-7 is 33.8 / 35.9 / 25.1 for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily. As readers know, that’s not good enough for me -- almost but not quite. On Sept 10-07, WMT hit a 52-week low of $42.09, then ran to almost $48 in about 25 trading sessions. So we know the power of the market is there, despite the Bear that set into the Retailer group in August. The stock is presently $42.90, undergoing a re-test of the Sept low.

What I suggest is to buy the stock on weakness this week, or write a ton of 40 puts, or both. You will not go wrong if your time horizon is a couple years out. You will see Warren Buffett-like performance numbers in your portfolio.

If the stock does hit $40, you can console yourself with the knowledge that (i) a dividend yield of +2.2 pct (ie, 88 cents on $40) is secure, and will grow to a minimum of 2.5 pct next year, (ii) nobody in the entire world will have paid less than you since August 1999. Now Wal-Mart is known to offer some fabulous sales on merchandise. Why would anybody decide to pass up that one?

It’s always fun to see how the market gives early proof of concept.

This week, WMT was by far the top mover among the Dow 30, up +8.02 pct W/W to close at 46.34. Short-term traders did well. Put writers did well. Those who wrote a ton of 40 puts...

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

Now for Disney (DIS), which is a part of the Cara Global 100. The stock is relatively attractive here at $32.53. If you wrote some 30 puts you may get put but with anticipated 12-month earnings of 2.11 from 4Q this year, that’s less than a 15 PE, which is about 20 pct less than the average Annual PE for this company. The dividend for 2008 will likely be $0.35 paid in the March-May period, so yield is not a big thing.

This is a company that gets hurt by slowdowns in the US economy, so I wouldn’t commit the full bundle to any purchases unless the Bear pulls its price down into the mid 20’s.

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

3M (MMM)

3M is a company I like too, and its shares are also relatively attractive here at 81.57. There was recently a Buy Alert at 80 for short-term oriented traders, and the stock might do well for a week or two or three, but I suspect not much longer.

My problem is that earnings are likely to be hit this quarter and the probably next one and possibly the one after that. The US economy is slowing, which will continue to press down on margins as well as top line revenue growth.

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Nov. 16: next one is due Feb. 15)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)

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Wrap up:

There are times, like these, when specific forces dominate markets, causing extreme fluctuations in price trends and cycles. Depending on your time horizon, you may or may not find yourself in a comfort zone.

Extreme capital markets are difficult for the average person to manage just as extreme forex markets are challenging to international business owners and operators.

My concern is that markets need stability to function properly as pricing mechanisms for the average user. But, many others do not share my concerns.

Media and entertainment providers, for example, love the stickiness and market share building opportunities of extreme markets. They can move people to action. Have you ever watched the phenomenon of a street crowd where when the media purposefully moves their cameras and lights to a preferred location that the action follows?

Financial services companies work the same way. Those that work in their own interest ahead of the client enjoy the trading opportunities that volatile markets offer. My expression “In their own interest” pertains to companies who primarily serve the interest of management, the Board and the shareholders, which is their right to do. They will argue that market conditions apply to the clients of all financial services companies and that, regardless of circumstance, all financial service companies must address the needs of the client to build market share.

Therein lies the problem. Building market share may take a generation. The time horizon of their “big producers” happens to be hours, days and weeks, possibly months and occasionally quarters, but seldom in terms of years, and never more than three to five years. So time and opportunity to make money what it is, who really wins? The big producers of the firm or the clientele?

I submit that we all, individuals and organizations, are driven by the natural laws (human nature, call it what you will) of fear and greed. Due to current market conditions, which I believe have their roots in politics, it is a fact that the largest financial services companies in the world are engaged in a war of survival that they have brought upon themselves in order to cull from the herd.

In this war, the embattled troops, and in particular the big producers, have been instructed to “eat what you kill”.

You see, the more the hunters kill, the more likely their employers will remain solvent because, of each kill, the individual hunter just gets a piece of a piece. That, my friends on the outside, is how the financial services industry works on the inside.

Again, there is nothing wrong with that. In fact, I loved it when I was there. But, looking at the big picture, however, I regret that what I see happening today is that this war for survival is a cover for the greatest transference of wealth from the masses to the classes that the world has ever seen. In their desperation to fight off insolvency, HB&B has turned their hunters loose, and the average trader is getting massacred.

Not to put too fine a point on it, Goldman Sachs is leading the charge, and Henry Paulson -- yes the Treasury Secretary employed by the People -- is leading the charge. A year or two from now, Henry will be back where he belongs, amongst his friends at HB&B, all of them richer than they ever dreamt possible. And the big producers of the firms that lose their fight to insolvency will cross sides and become big producers for the winners. Nothing will change except they will all be the richer for it, and the public will lose.

The public will have suffered the wealth effect in reverse, with greater debt to equity, and facing years of higher interest rates to come. So, not only will the public have their assets stolen from them by HB&B, they will have to pay HB&B higher interest rates to make up for the SIV losses suffered in the solvency wars

There will come a time when the fraudulent structure of HB&B will be torn down. And that will come when legislators stop taking pay-offs from the HB&B lobby and admit that HB&B should never again be allowed to be at one and the same time: banker, which is a safekeeper; broker, which is an agent; advisor, which is a professional; and dealer, which is a producer of product that is sold to the client.

And, knowing that the custodian-agent-advisor-salesperson have complete knowledge of a client's financial information plus a degree of control over his assets, legislators will finally see the wisdom of never allowing HB&B to use proprietary capital to trade against the client.

As I called it this morning, the entire affair is improper and repugnant.

And, as I say in this wrap-up, the next year or two will open the eyes of people to see the biggest transfer of wealth to HB&B in history. Nothing you or I say or do at this point, however, is going to stop it. That’s how powerful these people have gotten in the system they created in 1933 and 1934. But, like the Iron Curtain, there will be a time this system of absolute HB&B power will crumble.

After the public loses ten, twenty, thirty percent of their wealth or more, and sees the HB&B units paying out billions in compensation bonuses, they will become enraged. And as they learn more of the inner workings of HB&B, and see the weak underbelly of the beast, they will start to attack.

Some day in the future, I am looking forward to that fight. As for now, I, like you, must focus on wealth protection. In the words of Ecclesiastes, there is a time... this is the time to protect and defend and counter-position our assets.

Have a great day and be sure to stay connected. We are working hard to make changes to improve this website and make it easier for me to produce the blog. If there is an improvement you’d like to see in the information content or presentation be sure to express yourself in the Discourse or via direct mail.

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