The major Tech stocks, Telecom stocks and Consumer Discretionary stocks all got hammered this week. Accordingly, the QQQQ (non-financial Nasdaq-100 heavy-weights) plunged -8.12 pct W/W, including a knock-down on Friday of -3.34 pct.

If most of these stocks didn’t have RSI-7’s down near 30 already, I might think Monday could be a black one. But, no, I think the pull-down of prices going into the close on Friday was a set up for a rally attempt on Monday. Although the Bull-Bear fight is almost over, there is a little fight in the Old Bull yet. You could see it in the Professor’s eyes as he tried to stare down Dr. Paul in the Congressional Hearings on Thursday.

There was more of the same on Friday as the Financials started to fight back -- down -5.4 pct W/W, but a modest -0.76 pct on Friday as the Telcos (-3.8 pct), and the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials (down about -2.0 pct each) were getting beaten up.

But, you know, Humungous Bank & Broker needs a little strength in the market to pick as the time to come clean on their SIV (Structured Investment Vehicle) losses as they mark their asset holdings down to market. If they all chose to do it on a day like this past Wednesday, we would not be talking a close on the week of 13042 on the Dow and 2649 on the Nasdaq. It would have been an elevator trip down from those heights.

Now does anybody here really think that HB&B gives us the news the moment they know it? If so, I have to chuckle to think that the words Bank and transparency could actually fit in the same sentence.

Col. Jessep: You want answers? Kaffee: I think I'm entitled. Jessep: You want answers? Kaffee: I want the truth. Jessep: You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You?

We know these bankers are in a flat-out war for survival, so don’t be surprised at the tactics they use. Throwing CEOs overboard a la Citi, Merrill and UBS is like water off the ducks back to these people. Wait until we get into a confirmed Bear.

I’ve been there, and done that. It does get ugly. Trust among partners ceases to exist. These people will rip off heads faster than a starving lion doing a zebra during a drought on the Serengeti. We’re talking personal money here -- forget the client, forget the friends and family; this is personal.

So, we’ll hear the bad news later; we’ll hear it on the good days; and we’ll hear about how those firms got shafted by some rogue Managing Director. All of which will take time because maybe you don’t know it, but the people who head up these financial services companies are all survivors of previous wars. When they roll up their sleeves, you see the battle scars.

This group of Colonel Jessups at Humungous Bank & Broker includes no Missy Francis, or Prissy Burnett or Sissy...; no I won’t give the guy’s names at CNBC. (LOL)

Ah, the good old days when I worked for HB&B. Fond memories of Bear markets when you had to work with your back to the wall and fear in the room was palpable, everyone thinking, “Who’s the next to get the ax?”

Thankfully, capital markets involve more than just the goings-on in the Financial sector.

The Technology sector is changing at a pace never before seen. There are some remarkable developments. Google, for example, had its 9-year anniversary this past month. In less than six years from incorporation, the Company raised $1.67 billion via IPO, valuing it at the time at $23 billion. Just three years later, that value is almost ten times more. The market cap of GOOG is now the same as Apple (AAPL) and Research In Motion (RIMM) combined, or Oracle (ORCL), Ebay (EBAY) and Qualcomm (QCOM) combined. None of these companies are old-timers.

When you think about what’s happened in the past nine years, I say you can’t underestimate what can happen in the next 9 months.

There will be a lot of comings and goings. The spark in somebody’s eye today could produce another Google next summer.

But, some that go may never come back.

Yes, “I have had it with Fifth Third Bancorp (NDQ: FITB) as a Cara 100. When the stock broke down in July, I almost pulled it at the same time as E*Trade.” So, today Fifth Third Bancorp is gone from the Cara 100.

The replacement is the Company I mentioned last week: Coca-Cola (KO). I just haven’t had the time to change the list. I’ll try to do that tonight.

(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

(WIR344 Nov 03-07) From the Value line report for Coca-Cola, look down the 16 year data series for Earnings, Cash Flow and Dividends and you will see Y/Y increases for all three for 16 straight years in these three metrics except for an earnings bump in 1999 (currency related?). This company is a model of consistency and is A++ financially rated by Value Line. The Return on Shareholder Equity is above 30 pct with operating margins about 33 pct.

Long-term bottoms were last seen in 2002 and 2004. For students of the market, a Sell Alert was triggered during Thursday’s sell-off. This is a stock that you can wait to come to you. It will be (many months) before we see a high of 62.15 as set on Oct 30. If the company does manage to report annual earnings of $2.68 this year, that high is a PE multiple of 23.4, which is well ahead of what this company will average in a high inflation environment when average PE multiples tend to drop.

In fact, I wouldn’t pay more than 20 times current earnings, which at $2.68 for the year (depending on the forecast of $0.56 for the 4Q), takes my interest level down to $53 or less from the present $60.51.

This week KO closed at $60.83. The recent high of $62.15 was last seen in 4Q2000, seven years ago. I like the Company, but I don’t buy stocks after recent price performance has set a multi-year high. The price series data has a Monthly RSI-7 of 84.1 and a Weekly RSI-7 of 77.5. Both were recently close to 90 on a scale of zero to 100. I like to buy when the RSI drops to 30.

The last time the Monthly RSI dropped to 30 was Dec 2005 just below $40, and the last time the Weekly was at 30 was early Mar 2007 just below $46. So, why would I buy a stock at $46 in Mar and hold it at over 60 by late October? That’s a +30 pct gain in eight months! And why, for Pete’s sake, would I be buying more today shortly after getting a Sell Alert at the beginning of the month at ~$61?

Buying the stock of a quality company is half the battle. Timing the trade is the rest. To do the former takes judgment, and to do the latter takes patience. If you are not in the market as a full-time or regular trader, don't worry. You use the same skills in your present work.

Over 100 years ago, the founder of the Dow Jones & Co (Wall St. Journal and Barron’s publications), with less than a secondary school education, had this to say, "The man who is prudent and careful in carrying on a store, factory or real estate business seems to think that totally different methods should be employed in dealing with stocks. Nothing is further from the truth."

Trading is not rocket science. You don’t need Goldman Sachs or CNBC or Cramer or me, the Trader Wizard. You just need to get your head around the right stuff.

BTW, I had been looking for a European company to give more balance to the list, but Coca-Cola is a pretty strong brand there, so I’ll rationalize my choice. :-)

---

International Economics Review

The following is a very comprehensive report as to the economic situation around the world today. I hope you read it.

Econoday Weekly International Report

And this week will be a crucially important one for traders. With the US Treasury Budget (Tues), Producer Price Index (Wed) and Consumer Price Index (Thur), all indicators of the War On Inflation (LOL), as well as Retail Sales and Business Inventories (Wed) and Industrial Production (Fri), which will tell us something about the CNBC promo (America; Open For Business!), we get to talk about real stuff.

US Economic Calendar for next week.

Maybe I can get Dr. Ron Paul to join the Discourse. Do you think? He sure put Prof. Bernanke and the US Admin/Fed economic army in their place on Thursday.

He’s surely one Texan not to mess with. A real straight-shooter.

---

Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

There has been a big drop in Daily RSI-7 >70 from 22 a week ago to 8 this week. Many of those stocks had been in the Distribution zone, meaning that this week they issued Sell alerts.

Each time a stock recovers and re-enters the distribution zone quickly, and subsequently sets off a new Sell alert, the probabilities increase for a significant pull-back of >10 pct.

RSI > 70 (2)

RSI < 30 (12 of 37)

---

Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals. (Screenshots will return after I get a new webmaster/techie)

“Jock” reports:

THIS WEEK saw  0 GREEN industries, and 20 RED, compared to last week’s 10 greens, 8 Reds.
 
(insert weekly impulse chart)
 
Of the Cara 100 components, 11 are GREEN (last week: 39) , 59 are RED - (last week: 27):
 
(insert Cara 100 tables)
 
The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis,  were (green/red):
 
(insert table: index components green-red)
 
ALL major US stock indices (DJIA, NDX, S&P500, Nasdaq, Russell2000, Wiltshire4500) were RED this week, as was Shanghai.  Hong Kong, and Bombay were neutral.
 
The CRB commodity index stayed GREEN.  GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.
 
The US dollar index stayed RED, and hit yet another all-time low.
 
BOTTOM LINE: This week, the “net green industry” count dropped 20 (having lost 12 the previous week). All major US stock indices closed near their weekly low. So did EFA, EEM, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bombay and Nikkei.  To close on an optimistic note, Brazil’s BOVESPA closed in the upper half of its range, probably because of a major oil find.
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their  “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
 
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

---

US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29)

Monday and Tuesday gave little indication for the 600 point drop in the Dow 30 from the opening Wednesday through the close Friday. But be wary of that extremely weak close on Friday (13042.7). Usually that is a trap, to set up a possible rally off a strong open on Monday -- say from 13200, with an attempt, using the support of TH’s on FETV, to push through the technical resistance that will be at 13300.

I have pointed out for several weeks that “selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.”

---

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

A week ago I wrote, “There is some technical support at about 2725, but in the event prices take a nose dive, I wouldn’t count on it. The Winds are shifting, and the Bear has picked up the scent of nervous Bulls.”

The Nasdaq Composite 2725 support failed. The index closed the week at 2649 after a terrifying slide for the Bulls from the open Wednesday through mid-afternoon Thursday. Then there was a push by the Goldilocks team that failed to cross above 2725, causing further weakness into Friday morning. The late session close to end the week may be a set up for a Monday morning rally attempt.

The +470-point mid-August through end of October rally has retraced 50 pct. If it falls at the open Monday, there could be fib support close by at 2600. Failing that, this index is likely to drop quickly to the 2400 level where upon there will be some gathering of the remaining Bulls to thwart a collapse below 2350. That 2350-2400 level is where I believe the next big fight will be.

Here is the list of the ten highest-weighted non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq Composite. Put them in a watchlist (see Google Finance Portfolio) and watch them like a hawk:
AAPL MSFT GOOG QCOM RIMM CSCO INTC ORCL GILD EBAY

Daily RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

Note how low the Daily RSI-7’s are (well, it has been a tough week). When most of these fall well below 30, there will be an August 16 reaction and short-term bounce.

But look at the Weekly RSI-7’s. These are still signaling no bottom in sight. So, you want to sell into strength of the upcoming attempt to rally these tech stocks. In other words, the following sell-off will signal to everybody at that point the Bear is in control, and you might as well beat them to the punch if you didn’t move to cash in the past month or two.

Weekly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

If you are a long-term player who is content to wait this primary Bear through to the end, you can watch the following charts for the time that the Monthly RSI-7 values have fallen down close to 30. Then you’ll go back to the previous chart, and see where the Weekly RSI-7’s are, and if you feel comfortable that the broad market (say the DJIA or the S&P 500) has put in a Weekly bottom, and the Daily RSI-7 from the preceding chart is about to cross up through the 30 line for most these heavy-weight non-financials, I’d feel comfortable in going back into long positions.

Monthly RSI-7 for the Nasdaq 100 Big-10

I believe that the ills of the financial companies will take some time to work through, and there is a possible bifurcated market about to happen. As the Fed takes action to feed liquidity into the system, that will not help the Financials as much as the Tech stocks (of the two generals that typically lead the Bull charge).

Once the economy looks to be healthier, interest rates are going to have to rise. That’s not a time to be equal or over-weighted the Financials. So I think the first leg of the next Bull market will be a time to buy the Techs (and the Consumers, Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials), and, for those who want high income, the high quality high dividend-paying companies.

---

The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week the scoreboard reads 1 up (call it flat) and 9 down. That's consistent with the DJIA, of which 26 components were up, and 4 down.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	41.93	-0.33	-0.78%	0.02%	0.94%	1.30%	13.88%	5.62%	-1.18%	17.65%
XLP	27.88	-0.27	-0.96%	-0.46%	-1.62%	-1.41%	6.09%	2.31%	2.12%	9.16%
IYH	69.73	-0.22	-0.31%	-1.37%	-2.22%	-3.57%	4.92%	2.98%	-3.82%	8.44%
XLE	74.45	-1.40	-1.85%	-1.55%	-3.25%	-3.52%	31.58%	10.53%	14.89%	28.36%
XLB	41.53	-0.87	-2.05%	-2.58%	-3.89%	-4.18%	19.99%	6.08%	3.51%	22.04%
XLI	38.92	-0.79	-1.99%	-3.11%	-3.42%	-5.69%	10.47%	-0.15%	1.99%	12.98%
SMH	32.94	-0.11	-0.33%	-3.82%	-2.52%	-9.36%	-1.88%	-12.39%	-13.54%	-0.78%
XLY	33.91	-0.79	-2.28%	-4.99%	-6.94%	-10.72%	-11.97%	-7.15%	-14.30%	-8.87%
XLF	30.14	-0.23	-0.76%	-5.40%	-10.54%	-15.07%	-18.36%	-10.03%	-20.45%	-15.05%
IYZ	29.28	-1.16	-3.81%	-7.34%	-9.66%	-13.50%	-1.28%	-8.59%	-11.35%	2.92%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

---

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

---

Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) lost -1.55 pct W/W to close at 74.45. But, Friday XLE was down -1.85 pct on the day, mostly at the close.

Exxon (XOM -2.87 pct Fri.) and Chevron (CVX -2.15 pct Fri.) dropped hard despite another huge run-up in the oil price by +0.90 pct that day to close at 96.32/bbl.

So while Crude Oil is up + $13.57/bbl in four weeks to $96.32, Big Oil (XOM and CVX) is going nowhere but down. As I forecasted four weeks ago. The reason: the President can talk all he wants about 2 pct inflation, these people KNOW what their costs are. And when the President talks about a booming economy, these people KNOW their unit volume shipped. The US economy runs on oil, and $96 oil is shutting it down FAST.

I won’t harp on this, but Mr. Exxon is down to 86.85 and headed lower.

Yes, as I wrote earlier, “after the pull-back starts, it could be a few months, maybe longer, before share prices look attractive again. There are some who think the credit markets will so damage the US economy it will take a couple years to repair, in which case the domestic oils will likely be out of favor for a long time. I do, on the other hand, accept the notion that oil is harder to recover, and the costs are rising so quick that cheap oil is no longer the case. But with the bountiful oil sands of the world able to produce oil in the 40’s, newer discovery and extraction technologies coming along all the time, and oil alternatives like solar, wind, uranium, etc, coming into their own, there is no reason for oil prices to be at 96, and headed higher.”

Cdn oil sands companies in the Cara 100 did poorly this week. Imperial Oil (IMO) was down -3.6 pct and Suncor (SU) down -2.4 pct.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PBR	107.76	-9.01	-7.72%	15.50%	17.67%	28.16%	116.26%	74.06%	112.04%	133.60%
TOT	82.67	-1.23	-1.47%	4.35%	2.77%	4.65%	16.49%	12.02%	10.37%	15.93%
IMO	55.84	-2.09	-3.61%	1.49%	7.80%	14.40%	56.59%	31.70%	40.76%	47.53%
SU	108.64	-2.69	-2.42%	0.09%	2.03%	9.64%	46.99%	21.22%	30.00%	34.42%
STO	33.37	-0.86	-2.51%	-0.18%	-2.28%	-1.33%	29.89%	20.69%	16.64%	22.46%
XOM	86.85	-2.57	-2.87%	-1.23%	-5.81%	-7.09%	17.19%	3.89%	6.67%	16.41%
ECA	71.55	-1.66	-2.27%	-1.28%	6.84%	10.20%	57.81%	20.54%	26.91%	40.87%
CVX	87.26	-1.92	-2.15%	-1.38%	-4.79%	-4.54%	22.95%	7.58%	9.42%	24.30%
CEO	176.00	-2.65	-1.48%	-14.98%	-11.02%	-1.15%	86.70%	56.19%	97.98%	103.19%

---

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

---

Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) lost -2.58 pct on the week to close at 41.53. The loss on Friday was -2.05 pct. Even $GOLD was down on Friday after having such a stellar week.

But, despite the golly bullion rally, the goldminer shares were down on the whole week, and took a hit on Friday, which is a warning shot over the bow.

(Cara 100) BHP Billiton (BHP), the world’s largest miner, bid a large part of a trillion dollars to buy miner #3, Rio Tinto (RTP). BHP dropped -9.5 pct, while RTP closed the week +29.0 pct higher. This is mostly about trying to control (more than they have already) iron ore, which is used to make steel. China loves to make steel. You get the picture.

Oh, speaking of steel, I don’t even want to think about the Stelco news this week. Canada’s largest steelmaker, the highly profitable Stelco declared itself bankrupt and proceeded as you know to rip off the shareholders, the bondholders, suppliers and employees and then broke themselves into pieces and sold most of it to US Steel for $2 billion. All told, I call it a $2 billion theft.

Some of you recall my insinuations that the Prime Minister of Canada whose ships carried iron to Stelco would have a new port built on Stelco land in Hamilton harbour, paid for by Cdn taxpayer money. I added there would be federal money to improve the land for sale as upscale waterfront lots. Do you recall this?

Additional to all the other expectations that have become reality comes this news from Canadian Press on Saturday:

OTTAWA PLEDGES $30M TO CLEAN UP CONTAMINATED HAMILTON HARBOUR

"To clean up the area, a 9.5 hectare containment facility will be built around the area of the heaviest contamination. It will be capped with clean fill and two-thirds of the area will become a shipping pier and the rest a naturalized shoreline."

So who is going to be utilizing this shipping pier and why is taxpayer money being spent to facilitate it? The masterplan continues to unfold as the Brascan Boys knew it would.

This makes me puke. The only thing missing is for some of that “naturalized shoreline” to be gifted to Judge Farley who facilitated the whole deal. I hope to have a book commissioned because I think this is the most rotten piece of business in the history of Canada, which should be exposed.

The issue I have with Canada is that they want to look lily white to the eyes of the world, but in reality are as corrupt through political, legal and business levels as any banana republic. Brascan I expect this from, but the parties I have absolute contempt for are the Toronto Stock Exchange and Ontario Securities Commission who participated in the scam, which will come out in the book I am looking into.

The public needs these organizations to function with integrity, and once again the People were let down. That’s not good enough. Today’s capital markets are full of contempt for authority, with good reason.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	478.35	38.15	8.67%	29.03%	29.99%	28.45%	134.37%	86.71%	61.46%	110.86%
RIO	35.70	-1.26	-3.41%	-1.87%	0.56%	-0.61%	23.87%	-23.85%	-20.15%	30.05%
TCK	47.34	0.37	0.79%	-2.47%	-4.63%	-10.02%	-31.64%	17.32%	-43.01%	-38.85%
MT	73.01	-3.71	-4.84%	-3.58%	-10.49%	-6.89%	78.95%	22.03%	27.31%	73.63%
GGB	29.03	-0.86	-2.88%	-3.62%	-4.41%	-3.23%	76.80%	18.54%	38.11%	88.02%
AA	37.09	-0.57	-1.51%	-3.81%	-5.74%	-2.73%	26.46%	4.66%	-4.23%	27.85%
NUE	54.79	-1.76	-3.11%	-5.39%	-13.61%	-2.53%	0.53%	4.16%	-16.98%	-8.85%
PKX	156.07	-5.74	-3.55%	-6.21%	-15.72%	-16.20%	96.49%	13.89%	36.96%	112.37%
TS	46.65	-1.08	-2.26%	-9.44%	-13.74%	-12.34%	-3.85%	-4.48%	4.57%	5.35%
BHP	75.81	-1.04	-1.35%	-9.46%	-12.01%	-10.55%	95.03%	25.10%	41.94%	76.43%

---

Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FDX	99.74	-2.70	-2.64%	-2.63%	-4.04%	-7.23%	-9.14%	-8.91%	-8.11%	-12.11%
HON	57.76	-1.53	-2.58%	-2.68%	-2.83%	-6.40%	28.07%	1.73%	1.67%	36.87%
ABB	29.94	-0.84	-2.73%	-2.70%	0.91%	7.43%	68.01%	29.55%	50.98%	94.80%
UTX	73.51	-1.19	-1.59%	-2.83%	-2.56%	-8.48%	17.04%	1.58%	6.89%	13.25%
ERJ	46.29	-0.55	-1.17%	-3.32%	-3.46%	-5.90%	13.51%	-5.61%	-2.32%	10.50%
BA	94.21	-2.07	-2.15%	-3.63%	-1.89%	-2.56%	5.65%	-4.16%	0.14%	10.69%
GE	38.38	-0.64	-1.64%	-4.84%	-4.95%	-6.46%	1.08%	-1.44%	3.01%	8.76%
CAT	70.41	-2.02	-2.79%	-5.82%	-6.17%	-12.32%	15.12%	-10.28%	-5.81%	18.94%
MMM	79.51	-3.32	-4.01%	-6.34%	-7.69%	-15.57%	1.60%	-8.46%	-6.85%	0.77%

XLI (Industrials) lost -3.11 pct this week to close at 38.92. Friday’s loss was -1.99 pct.

Fedex (FDX) dropped -2.63 pct and is breaking down. Most of the rest in my table -- and these are mostly high quality companies -- were down from -3 to -6 pct on the week.

---

Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) has been performer #8, #9 and #9 for the past three weeks. I wrote a couple weeks ago that this ETF cannot go much higher, and will likely to continue to drop, because the American consumer has insufficient money or access to credit.

XLY fell -4.99 pct W/W to close at 33.91. That’s a loss of -7.1 pct in six sessions.

This week, JC Penny (JCP) collapsed -12.0 pct and Starbucks (SBUX -11.6 pct W/W) was close behind.

Yes, “this picture will not get better until consumers have tickee, ie, disposable income to spend. Instead, people are having their homes foreclosed.”

The anger is starting to rise. A month ago, the UofMichigan Consumer Survey (readiness to spend) plunged more than any time since hurricane Katrina. But this month, just reported, the drop made the previous one look like a picnic.

Among the leadership candidates of either major party in America, Dr. Ron Paul (R, TX) is the only one who gets it. America is in deep economic and financial trouble, and its going to get worse. Like I said about (most) Financials, I wouldn’t touch (most) Retailers with a barge pole.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
NKE	62.21	-1.09	-1.72%	-2.60%	-3.71%	-1.49%	27.40%	15.42%	15.37%	34.13%
DIS	32.74	-0.89	-2.65%	-3.48%	-4.77%	-7.70%	-4.27%	-0.79%	-9.36%	-2.50%
BC	21.28	-0.15	-0.70%	-3.84%	-2.65%	-4.83%	-33.33%	-17.52%	-36.53%	-31.22%
EBAY	33.46	1.06	3.27%	-4.45%	-8.68%	-16.14%	10.90%	-8.55%	-4.37%	3.59%
TM	107.86	-1.13	-1.04%	-4.55%	-1.70%	-4.24%	-20.28%	-9.96%	-9.57%	-11.87%
WHR	75.44	1.58	2.14%	-4.66%	-9.73%	-15.49%	-10.89%	-22.05%	-33.82%	-14.76%
CCL	43.89	-0.90	-2.01%	-4.79%	-7.93%	-12.62%	-13.86%	-7.41%	-8.92%	-8.89%
SBUX	22.57	-0.83	-3.55%	-11.59%	-13.76%	-14.31%	-35.97%	-19.54%	-24.87%	-38.87%
JCP	46.89	-3.38	-6.72%	-12.01%	-16.28%	-24.72%	-39.93%	-28.19%	-40.05%	-41.06%

---

Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PG	70.42	-0.42	-0.59%	1.25%	-1.85%	-1.79%	9.11%	8.39%	13.56%	10.38%
MO	72.71	-0.01	-0.01%	0.83%	-0.36%	3.78%	12.00%	7.45%	6.04%	19.83%
PEP	73.48	-0.02	-0.03%	0.69%	1.58%	2.37%	17.16%	7.27%	9.39%	17.21%
KO	60.83	-0.64	-1.04%	0.53%	-1.20%	5.24%	25.22%	8.92%	14.54%	30.40%
BUD	49.81	-0.67	-1.33%	-1.68%	-3.84%	-5.79%	1.20%	2.70%	-0.30%	5.46%
WAG	38.10	-0.93	-2.38%	-2.58%	-5.18%	-1.85%	-17.30%	-19.18%	-15.61%	-9.52%
DEO	89.19	-2.18	-2.39%	-2.79%	-1.58%	-0.82%	12.15%	8.27%	4.99%	17.84%
WMT	42.90	-0.72	-1.65%	-2.92%	-3.90%	-8.84%	-9.78%	-7.64%	-10.49%	-7.52%
ABV	73.40	-2.35	-3.10%	-11.01%	-7.17%	-7.02%	49.49%	12.06%	16.80%	62.97%
WFMI	43.38	-2.53	-5.51%	-11.31%	-9.06%	-15.77%	-4.62%	-3.28%	-5.28%	-10.92%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) lost just -0.46 pct W/W, closing at 27.88.

InBev (ABV -11.0 pct) and Whole Foods Market (WFMI -11.3 pct) were torched this week, but the defensive stalwarts (PG, MO, PEP and KO) were up a bit. This is classic flight to safety stuff. It’s about the only thing that an independent Talking Head (one who hasn’t been totally bought and paid for) wants to discuss on Financial Entertainment TV.

Nosirree, Mom & Pop can’t go wrong with Procter & Gamble, Altria, Pepsi and Coke! Well, dammit, they can. Go to the Value Line for these companies and you’ll see the hi-low for Coca-Cola (a new Cara 100 this week) was 66.9-42.9 in the year 2000. Seven years later the stock is all the way up to 60. And look at Altria/Philip Morris, which had a hi-low of 45.9-18.7 in 2000. Oh, 2000 you say; that was a Bear market. Well, 1999 was a Bull market and the hi-low for MO was 55.6-21.3.

In a Bear market 90 pct of the stocks get hammered. Their Total Returns bleed losses. Is Mom & Pop going to zero in on the other 10 pct? No, frankly, I’ll put my money on the Goldman Sach’s advisors to their pension fund. No, not for the fund; but for themselves.

---

Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	51.67	1.38	2.74%	5.58%	7.67%	3.98%	-1.71%	11.53%	-2.67%	14.14%
JNJ	65.16	0.57	0.88%	0.59%	1.34%	-1.18%	-1.87%	7.12%	1.64%	-1.50%
AET	54.62	0.00	0.00%	0.44%	-2.25%	2.79%	27.38%	16.34%	8.87%	39.80%
DNA	75.09	-0.26	-0.35%	0.35%	1.28%	-2.80%	-8.20%	2.22%	-6.80%	-7.70%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
NVS	52.10	-0.57	-1.08%	-0.97%	-0.08%	-2.65%	-10.39%	-5.12%	-10.36%	-12.08%
BMY	28.29	-0.44	-1.53%	-2.04%	-4.91%	-4.97%	7.24%	0.39%	-6.48%	15.09%
GSK	49.72	-1.18	-2.32%	-2.16%	-1.58%	-4.79%	-7.60%	-5.20%	-13.36%	-3.46%
PFE	22.83	-0.28	-1.21%	-3.55%	-6.09%	-9.62%	-13.16%	-5.43%	-15.94%	-11.65%
AMGN	54.28	-1.75	-3.12%	-4.13%	-5.07%	-6.69%	-20.64%	6.45%	-13.98%	-26.18%

IYH (healthcare) lost -1.37 pct this week to close at 69.73.

The winner was United Health again (UNH +5.6 pct W/W) and the loser was Amgen (AMGN -4.1 pct). Pretty quiet.

---

Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
JPM	42.31	-0.30	-0.70%	-1.95%	-10.59%	-9.63%	-11.98%	-4.21%	-20.47%	-10.44%
LEH	58.07	1.96	3.49%	-3.41%	-3.89%	-10.15%	-26.15%	-3.46%	-24.19%	-18.66%
DB	121.80	-2.57	-2.07%	-3.75%	-4.13%	-7.31%	-10.00%	-8.73%	-23.00%	-3.16%
CS	59.55	-1.42	-2.33%	-5.49%	-9.98%	-13.55%	-15.06%	-13.32%	-22.28%	-7.46%
MER	53.27	-0.52	-0.97%	-7.00%	-19.40%	-29.15%	-43.09%	-28.67%	-42.42%	-39.11%
HBC	87.93	-2.06	-2.29%	-7.18%	-8.26%	-9.23%	-5.42%	-3.72%	-6.68%	-9.71%
UBS	45.69	-1.38	-2.93%	-7.27%	-15.12%	-20.26%	-25.57%	-17.36%	-27.75%	-24.64%
GS	211.33	1.39	0.66%	-7.96%	-10.42%	-9.52%	5.29%	15.96%	-6.73%	14.37%
MS	54.20	0.52	0.97%	-7.98%	-16.33%	-19.41%	-33.59%	-12.31%	-37.01%	-27.59%
C	33.10	0.20	0.61%	-12.27%	-22.36%	-30.85%	-40.09%	-29.42%	-38.84%	-34.60%

This week, the Financial ETF (XLF) plunged -5.40 pct to close at 30.14. Four weeks ago it closed at 35.49. As I wrote last week, “The air is coming out of the Financials faster than CNBC can crank up another Bill Miller balloon.”

A week ago, a big loser (not as big as Merrill Lynch though) was Citigroup. C plunged -11.5 pct.

This week, it got worse. C plunged a further -12.3 pct AND the Board fired the CEO. No, it got even worse that that; they hired ex-Goldman Sachs head Bob Rubin as interim head honcho. What’s up with this Goldman Sachs takeover of the capitalist world anyway?

A week ago, the biggest loser was Merrill Lynch, which lost -13.3 pct. Second biggest loser this week? Merrill Lynch after they too dropped a CEO plus -7.0 pct.

All the rest were almost as bad: Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs down -8.0 pct; UBS -7.3 pct and HBC -7.2 pct, all this week.

“Yes, the Street is a mess. We just don’t yet know how bad it is.” (Earlier WIR)

We do know, things will go from bad to worse. What we have to be careful about is that central bankers slip these people a trillion dollars to mend the errors of their ways so life as we know it can go forward.

Well almost. You won’t be able to wear that $25,000 Rolex. You won’t have to go to Jamaica to have somebody take a machete to your arm. For $100,000, that watch and your arm will be gone in a heartbeat anywhere in Manhattan.

With people lining up at fuel stations across America slipping in $2 purchases (all they can afford), the folks who run these big banks will soon have to be driven to work in bullet-proof limos or armored trucks.

I can see this happening in their recruiting one day: “HB&B proudly offers armored truck service to Managing Directors.” (LOL)

---

Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SAP	51.55	-0.86	-1.64%	-3.19%	-4.00%	-7.70%	-3.10%	-5.43%	7.91%	1.38%
ADSK	46.16	-1.20	-2.53%	-5.43%	-3.13%	-9.13%	13.81%	5.80%	7.52%	32.87%
INTC	25.15	-0.78	-3.01%	-6.16%	-3.05%	-1.57%	23.59%	5.14%	11.93%	23.16%
QCOM	38.10	-1.66	-4.18%	-7.84%	-7.82%	-9.63%	1.71%	-0.31%	-13.94%	9.39%
ADBE	43.24	-1.79	-3.98%	-9.69%	-8.00%	-6.24%	8.32%	6.11%	4.80%	8.94%
CSCO	28.58	-1.05	-3.54%	-12.09%	-10.41%	-13.18%	3.03%	-8.98%	7.81%	6.96%
ORCL	19.36	-0.99	-4.86%	-12.12%	-9.32%	-13.73%	10.57%	-3.63%	2.81%	4.42%
SNDK	38.95	-0.10	-0.26%	-12.33%	-5.05%	-17.83%	-6.64%	-31.01%	-13.50%	-15.56%
INFY	42.01	-0.37	-0.87%	-17.01%	-14.65%	-18.73%	-24.74%	-14.79%	-19.26%	-21.64%
CTSH	30.79	-0.78	-2.47%	-24.72%	-22.91%	-24.76%	-20.81%	-27.66%	-22.74%	-18.91%

SMH (semi-conductors) fell -3.82 pct to close at 32.94. Just think, at the close four weeks ago this ETF was sitting at 38.45.

SanDisk (SNDK), Oracle (ORCL) and Intel (INTC) were all down more than -12.0 pct. You know it’s a bad week for the Techs when there are many high quality companies that fared worse, like Cognizant (CTSH -24.7 pct) and InfoSys (INFY -17.0 pct).

But you saw this coming. I know you did. Last week referring to the prior week quote, I wrote, ““Note that the July high was not surpassed by the Sep-Oct high. Bad sign if you are a Bull.” There is no change in my outlook for the Tech stocks.”

---

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

---

Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) dropped off the landscape this week. I thought last week’s pasting (-2.50 pct) was bad but this week IYZ plunged -7.34 pct W/W to close at 29.28. The loss this Friday was -3.81 pct, which none of us would like to take in a month or a quarter!

Recall these words from last week’s WIR: “...despite a gain of +1.02 pct on Friday. Six weeks ago, IYZ closed at 38.58, so this sector is on a serious slide.”

Yes, from 38.58 to 29.28 in seven weeks for telecommunication companies is quite serious. I don’t care what the dividend is, the Total Return absolutely sucks.

But you saw this coming. I know you did. Last week referring to the prior week quote, I wrote, “Note that the July high was not surpassed by the Sep-Oct high. Bad sign if you are a Bull.”

Same old, same old. Actually there is something new. No new cell phones are being sold. This industry hit the wall when consumers realized they ran out of tickee.

Verizon (VZ -3.6 pct W/W) and AT&T (T -3.0 pct) were down along with the rest in this sector.

---

Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) had yet another gain, and the only one on the major sector board. A week ago the gain was +0.91 pct and this week it was +0.02 pct, all of a wooden penny, to close at 41.92. The ETF has not gone anywhere for four weeks.

Again, take note that the July high was not surpassed by the subsequent Oct high. Bad sign if you are a Bull.

---

Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.13	3.28	3.45	3.90
6 Month	3.49	3.54	3.61	4.08
2 Year	3.40	3.46	3.68	4.14
3 Year	3.36	3.41	3.65	4.16
5 Year	3.75	3.81	3.95	4.36
10 Year	4.22	4.28	4.32	4.65
30 Year	4.60	4.66	4.61	4.86

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.32	3.33	3.29	3.46
2yr AAA	3.31	3.32	3.30	3.45
2yr A	3.42	3.34	3.32	3.45
5yr AAA	3.43	3.46	3.42	3.53
5yr AA	3.39	3.45	3.42	3.52
5yr A	3.53	3.57	3.53	3.76
10yr AAA	3.85	3.88	3.79	3.81
10yr AA	3.89	3.91	3.69	3.74
10yr A	4.08	4.11	4.02	3.94
20yr AAA	4.47	4.46	4.39	4.44
20yr AA	4.67	4.66	4.58	4.64
20yr A	5.07	4.47	4.39	4.45

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.33	4.43	4.54	4.82
2yr A	4.49	4.64	4.71	4.96
5yr AAA	4.57	4.67	4.72	4.81
5yr AA	4.99	5.11	5.01	5.17
5yr A	4.90	5.00	5.00	5.29
10yr AAA	5.27	5.26	5.17	5.45
10yr AA	5.73	5.70	5.60	5.65
10yr A	5.79	5.88	5.79	5.75
20yr AAA	5.63	5.66	5.02	5.80
20yr AA	5.89	5.95	5.86	6.03
20yr A	6.05	6.12	6.05	6.13

---

Are you watching yields in the bond market? Dropping like a stone. There is a near-panic move to the safety of fixed income.

US Treasury yields dropped -1, -10, -20 and -28 basis points to 4.60, 4.22, 3.75 and 3.40 pct for the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper, respectively. The yield on the 3-month T-Bills has plunged by -32 bp to 3.13 pct.

A week or two ago, I opined if the yields dropped further, there would be a recession. Money would just sit in bonds. Few traders would take risk. Capital intensive projects will dry up.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

---

Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

---

This week, TLT and TIP gained +0.32 and +1.31 pct respectively.

When you look at these charts from the end of June, when the Consumer Spending disappeared and the Credit Fiasco appeared, the Bond market seems to be shouting, “Recession dead ahead!”

Moreover, the spike in the TIPS is hollering that this recession will be accompanied by inflation, a double whammy for stock prices!

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

---

SHY Monthly data series chart:

---

IEF Monthly data series chart:

---

TLT Monthly data series chart:

---

AGG Monthly data series chart:

---

LQD Monthly data series chart:

---

TIP Monthly data series chart:

---

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

---

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

---

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TIP	105.35	0.91	0.87%	1.31%	1.94%	4.41%	6.17%	5.77%	4.87%	4.72%
IEF	85.85	0.51	0.60%	0.89%	1.14%	3.37%	3.83%	4.45%	3.71%	3.53%
SHY	81.74	0.03	0.04%	0.45%	0.31%	1.14%	2.12%	1.62%	2.06%	2.10%
TLT	91.33	0.77	0.85%	0.32%	0.92%	4.22%	2.54%	5.85%	3.44%	2.04%
AGG	100.80	0.35	0.35%	0.25%	0.04%	1.36%	0.89%	2.36%	0.86%	0.70%
CFC	13.83	0.36	2.67%	-3.62%	-20.06%	-26.20%	-67.16%	-51.74%	-66.46%	-64.37%
FNM	49.00	-0.80	-1.61%	-6.86%	-18.37%	-25.80%	-18.14%	-25.68%	-22.01%	-19.71%
FRE	41.70	-2.12	-4.84%	-13.72%	-20.86%	-31.22%	-38.58%	-32.38%	-38.17%	-40.44%

The plunge in the share prices of Countrywide, Freddie and Fannie continues. This week, CFC went down -3.62 pct; FNM down -6.86 pct and FRE down -13.72 pct.

Have you looked at the YTD performance? CFC is down -67.2 pct; FNM -18.3 pct; and FRE down -38.6 pct.

Why it was just a couple months ago that HB&B was telling you the worst was over. NOT.

I wrote in the WIR two weeks ago, “This is not the definition of an efficient market. Henry Paulson wasted his breath last week telling the Chinese to change to a market-driven currency. Trick or Treat, Henry. Pass the weed. You must be smoking something if you think you can sell your efficient market crapola on people who have an IQ higher than 80.”

Since then, CFC plunged -20.1 pct, FNM -18.4 pct and FRE -20.9 pct. So much for that academic nonsense called Efficient Market Hypothesis, and really if the Congress could impeach the Treasury Secretary, it might not be a bad thing. It’s a long wait until January 2009.

And how about that Dr. Paul spanking the Professor who runs the Fed, at those Congressional hearings on Thursday? Anybody with an IQ higher than 80 can smell a rat in the central bank these days, and Dr. Paul showed us clearly why he, or someone of his ilk needs to be put in charge in the White House.

That was a masterful piece of work by Dr. Paul. If anybody here missed it, I’ll be disappointed. Bond traders are desperate for somebody like Dr. Paul running the Show.

---

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

---

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

---

Commodities Review

The $CRB had a tenth weekly gain in the past 11. The index now stands at 354.54.

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is now at 333.27 and the 200-day MA is 317.21.

While the Administration and Fed is telling the American public that inflation is just 2 pct or less, take a look at the $CRB since the beginning of the year.

Yikes, there was a January low of 284.61 and the index is now at 354.54.

That’s a +24.5 pct increase in just over ten months.

People can’t pay their bills and the Admin/Fed is dropping interest rates, which only help the rich anyway, and as Dr. Paul says, it’s just more stealing from the People. Think about this; the majority of people with credit card debt, which is the majority of the people, have interest rates on those credit cards of what (I don’t know because I have no debt) 20 pct to 24 pct p.a.? So, what happens when the Fed lowers rates? These credit card rates don’t drop; the banks simply make more money!

And the banks don’t drop their lending rates to sub-prime borrowers, when as Dr. Paul says, the whole damn system is sub-prime! Only the rich get the lower rates, and the bank makes more profit. Bernanke and Paulson are working against the People, as Dr. Paul is screaming at them.

Yes, the truth is coming out. The People need some patriot physician in the White House to free them of their pain. Here we are in 2007 and the People have been marched back into slavery by the oil lobby, the pharmaceutical lobby, the (fill in the blank) lobby.

Enough is enough.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

---

Oil Review

Crude Oil futures continued higher. Come in Houston. Prices have cleared orbit.

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) are up to 96.32, another record high weekly close.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 84.10 and the 200d MA is 70.65, so Oil at 96.32 is in orbit.

Oil stocks (XLE) have not kept pace with the $WTIC, and in fact have been headed south. I think the gap must be closed, one way or the other. I don’t see any hope for the Big Oil companies of the US as they have reported smaller earnings and the forward quarters are looking poor as well according to Value line.

Anyway, a few weeks ago I called a Peak Price for Exxon (XOM), and the price is now down to $86.85.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

---

Gold & Precious Metals Review

Since a low of 651.60 on August 17, $GOLD has zoomed to 834.70, a gain of +28.1 pct in 12 weeks. Another way of looking at it, I could say that is a whole Bull market in less than one quarter.

Many of you have thanked me for keeping you in the game during those dog days of August when I was enjoying the beach.

Thanks to an increasingly weaker $USD, the PM beat goes on. $GOLD jumped +26.20 (+3.24 pct) this week.

For $GOLD, the 50day MA is now 753.43 and the 200d MA is 689.68.

I am sure that the world’s leading Finance Ministers and Central Bankers are concerned. The cost inflation, ie, wages, materials, energy -- call it headline or core inflation -- (LOL) to produce any product is zooming. Why even the cost to produce gold is zooming. It is becoming increasingly hard to find new gold, and more countries like Venezuela and Mongolia are making it harder to get permits. Above or below the table, the people in those countries want theirs.

The question is how much longer can the G-7 lie through their teeth about inflation. It is nowhere near 2 pct if you happen to be working in the oil fields or the gold mines. Maybe the elderly on social assistance programmes can be fed that line, but drillers, miners, poor countries and rich oil sheiks are no longer accepting wooden nickels.

That’s a powerful reason for the long-term picture to be so rosy for commodities. As a trader, however, my concern is the here and now. I continue to advise that prices are overblown and may come back hard on a heartbeat. I saw it in 1980 and 1981.

Please stay alert.

Spot gold chart for the week

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

---

Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.95/oz (+6.48 pct) to close at 15.55.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is 13.66 and the 200d MA is 13.34.

On August 17, the price hit a low of 11.06, so the move to 15.55 in twelve weeks is a gain of +40.6 pct.

As I say, “successful traders sell into strength but they also don’t sell a rally. They wait for a bit of a pull-back. that’s why I use the Distribution Zone and the Sell Alert system. With the prices rising so quickly, it pays to use an Hourly RSI-7 calculation. Many even use a 15-minute RSI system.”

Once I start offering advisory services to clients, I will pay to get real-time data in the BillCara2.com service, which will give me intra-day hourly and also 5, 10, and 15-minute RSI calculations, which (the calcs) I will offer free, and will probably build into charts linked to the blog.

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

---

$PLAT lost -30.20 (-2.06 pct) this week to close at 1432.50, so all is not well in the Precious Metals group. The reason, I feel, is that the Chinese “love” platinum, and this was a week when the Chinese pulled huge capital out of markets as bank reserve requirements were lifted yet another time.

The loss on Friday was -3.22 pct ($47.60/oz!) so be careful here; this and the drop in copper prices could be the tip-off for gold and silver.

The 50d MA for $PLAT is 1383.09 and the 200d MA is 1301.31.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

---

This week, $PALL lost -0.85/oz (-0.22 pct) to close at 381.10. The loss on Friday was -0.33 pct.

The 50d MA is 362.31 and the 200d MA is 362.67.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

---

“Like I say, maybe this market is leading the PM group? I am not so certain, but if I were unhedged, I’d be watching it all by the hour.” (WIR +43, two weeks ago)

This week, $COPPER lost -17.95/contract (5.40 pct W/W) and now the drop is -30.20/contract over two weeks, to close at 314.55. Over just one and a half months, the price has spiraled down from 378.00 (-16.8 pct) so don’t let people tell you there is a Bull market in all the metals.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 349.80 and the 200d MA is 331.99, so the current price (314.55) is now below the 50MA and 200MA.

That may be saying that recession is closer at hand than we might think.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

---

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GFI	19.13	0.20	1.06%	7.71%	5.40%	1.76%	4.36%	27.19%	7.47%	3.13%
NEM	54.04	-0.02	-0.04%	4.71%	13.60%	13.60%	22.26%	30.47%	29.90%	15.35%
BVN	60.04	-0.96	-1.57%	3.95%	13.63%	12.92%	117.46%	52.73%	71.79%	116.44%
ABX	45.44	-0.77	-1.67%	-0.39%	5.55%	7.47%	52.33%	34.56%	46.91%	51.26%
GG	34.76	-1.06	-2.96%	-2.69%	4.04%	6.86%	27.14%	39.49%	42.81%	21.24%
MDG	38.19	-0.78	-2.00%	-6.69%	-3.14%	3.02%	45.26%	41.39%	46.88%	37.03%
AUY	13.90	-0.30	-2.11%	-7.21%	-3.61%	2.06%	12.73%	27.29%	-1.63%	16.90%
AEM	53.19	-1.89	-3.43%	-7.33%	-3.11%	-2.72%	36.66%	20.48%	48.20%	33.11%
KGC	18.77	-0.26	-1.37%	-7.95%	2.01%	14.66%	64.36%	47.45%	38.32%	50.64%

This week, $XAU lost -0.90 (-0.48 pct) to close at 186.73. Friday’s loss was -1.43 pct.

The 50d MA is 170.01 and the 200d MA is 147.85.

“I continue to advise not to get caught in a smash-up, so move your stops up, tighten your seat belts, and don’t hand back those hard-earned gains.”

---

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

---

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

---

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

---

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

---

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

---

Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The trade-weighted $USD index dropped a further -0.87 (-1.14 pct W/W) to 75.39.

I assure you, a year ago there was no US economist appearing on Financial Entertainment TV forecasting a 75 cent USD. Certainly not on CNBC. Kudlow would have booed the person off the air.

Well, so much for Goldilocks and “the US Dollar, the greatest story never told.”

Give him the hook!

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates. They have no option under the circumstances. The economy is relatively strong, but the credit markets are imploding.”

I don’t recall how long ago I wrote that, but it still applies. The economy might be showing signs of a slowdown however, so maybe that will help the Fed drop rates, but also tighten liquidity through FOMC operations. That would strengthen the USD, and also help commercial banks continue to drop their prime rates, removing pressures from the imploding credit markets, which I think is the main reason why the USD is plunging.

Same old, same old.

---

The Euro ($XEU) this week gained +1.54 (+1.13 pct) to close at 146.71.

The Euro’s 50d MA is 141.43 and the 200d MA is 136.14.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

---

Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

---

This week, the Pound lifted just +0.12 (+0.06 pct) to close at 209.07. Significantly, there was a loss of -0.82 pct on Friday!

The 50d MA is 204.06 and the 200d MA is 200.03.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

---

Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) had an enormous gain this week (+2.90 +3.33 pct) to close at 90.05.

A week ago, I gave you the tip you needed: “If you want another indicator of where the North American and European equity markets are headed, you can watch the Yen:USD pair. If the Yen strengthens a lot, it is likely that Japanese capital is being pulled out of foreign markets and debts to banks are being repaid.”

As equity markets plunge, the Japanese Carry Trade will reverse flow from markets back to banks to repay debts. The amount of funds flowing out of equity markets will be trillions. This is going to be a serious challenge to traders who are long equities. Many Funds will cease to exist in the next year.

In some cases, it will be their bankers pulling the chain.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

---

The Canadian Loonie lost some ground. This week, it traded down -0.75 (-0.70 pct) to close at 106.32 American.

Last week I wrote: “Some outwardly-looking Canadians think this is terrific. From a low of 84.22 in the 1Q, the price at 107.07 is out into space.”

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 101.01 and the 200d MA is 93.11, which aren’t even in the same world with the current price 107.07).

This is still a good opportunity for Canadians to buy ocean-front condos in Bahamas (US$ at par with B$). Wow, for those who watched the CBC telecast of the hockey game last evening between the Rangers and Leafs they were treated to a showcase of Hockey Hall of Fame inductee Mark Messier, the greatest leader maybe in team sports ever, presenting his small resort at Harbour Island in the Bahamas.

Harbour Island, for those who don't know, is one of the prettiest villages in the world. Land transportation is by golf cart. The flowers and plants, lovely people, beautiful pink sand beach and all, this place is really enjoyable to visit. It's only maybe 50 miles due East of Nassau and can be reached by jet ferry (the Bo-Hengy). I recomend it.

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

---

International Equity Markets Review

There were some terrific losses in international equity markets this week. Look over the charts and you will see huge losses in India, China, Japan and Canada. The loss in the UK on Friday was significant.

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

---

Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

---

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

---

Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

---

Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

---

Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

---

Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

---

Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

---

Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

---

Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

---

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

---

Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWZ	83.26	-2.89	-3.35%	0.19%	1.04%	4.57%	78.29%	36.72%	48.47%	92.11%
IEV	118.90	-2.80	-2.30%	-2.87%	-3.29%	-2.81%	12.59%	6.02%	2.39%	16.26%
SPY	145.14	-2.02	-1.37%	-4.04%	-5.52%	-7.17%	2.67%	-0.17%	-3.98%	5.04%
EWC	34.24	-0.76	-2.17%	-4.65%	-0.87%	0.03%	38.62%	16.90%	19.34%	34.49%
EWU	25.51	-0.64	-2.45%	-4.92%	-4.85%	-4.42%	8.32%	3.20%	0.51%	9.72%
TRF	69.13	-0.86	-1.23%	-5.08%	-4.65%	-2.61%	-21.93%	7.46%	0.44%	-1.10%
EWJ	13.40	-0.18	-1.33%	-5.30%	-5.23%	-7.84%	-5.63%	-5.10%	-8.53%	-0.45%
QQQQ	50.00	-1.73	-3.34%	-8.12%	-7.29%	-6.59%	15.63%	4.80%	6.77%	16.74%
FXI	182.00	-2.43	-1.32%	-12.61%	-13.13%	-10.01%	56.36%	39.19%	62.75%	103.31%
IFN	54.82	-0.38	-0.69%	-13.46%	-5.16%	-4.63%	20.91%	19.04%	34.40%	16.14%

---

Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

---

U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

---

Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

---

US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

---

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

---

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PG	70.42	-0.42	-0.59%	1.25%	-1.85%	-1.79%	9.11%	8.39%	13.56%	10.38%
MO	72.71	-0.01	-0.01%	0.83%	-0.36%	3.78%	12.00%	7.45%	6.04%	19.83%
JNJ	65.16	0.57	0.88%	0.59%	1.34%	-1.18%	-1.87%	7.12%	1.64%	-1.50%
KO	60.83	-0.64	-1.04%	0.53%	-1.20%	5.24%	25.22%	8.92%	14.54%	30.40%
MRK	55.90	1.13	2.06%	-0.25%	-2.92%	4.47%	26.99%	8.67%	7.40%	30.36%
MCD	58.31	-1.06	-1.79%	-1.20%	-0.27%	2.26%	32.92%	16.78%	16.99%	38.54%
XOM	86.85	-2.57	-2.87%	-1.23%	-5.81%	-7.09%	17.19%	3.89%	6.67%	16.41%
JPM	42.31	-0.30	-0.70%	-1.95%	-10.59%	-9.63%	-11.98%	-4.21%	-20.47%	-10.44%
DD	46.79	-0.75	-1.58%	-2.44%	-3.27%	-4.63%	-4.59%	-4.63%	-9.34%	-0.97%
HON	57.76	-1.53	-2.58%	-2.68%	-2.83%	-6.40%	28.07%	1.73%	1.67%	36.87%
UTX	73.51	-1.19	-1.59%	-2.83%	-2.56%	-8.48%	17.04%	1.58%	6.89%	13.25%
WMT	42.90	-0.72	-1.65%	-2.92%	-3.90%	-8.84%	-9.78%	-7.64%	-10.49%	-7.52%
T	39.20	-0.14	-0.36%	-3.02%	-5.45%	-7.31%	12.16%	-0.13%	-0.68%	17.30%
AXP	56.49	0.39	0.70%	-3.30%	-6.89%	-10.66%	-6.41%	-6.86%	-10.73%	-4.11%
DIS	32.74	-0.89	-2.65%	-3.48%	-4.77%	-7.70%	-4.27%	-0.79%	-9.36%	-2.50%
AIG	57.06	1.06	1.89%	-3.48%	-8.19%	-16.20%	-20.91%	-11.26%	-20.75%	-16.14%
PFE	22.83	-0.28	-1.21%	-3.55%	-6.09%	-9.62%	-13.16%	-5.43%	-15.94%	-11.65%
VZ	42.77	0.04	0.09%	-3.63%	-6.21%	-6.06%	13.09%	2.03%	3.91%	18.44%
BA	94.21	-2.07	-2.15%	-3.63%	-1.89%	-2.56%	5.65%	-4.16%	0.14%	10.69%
AA	37.09	-0.57	-1.51%	-3.81%	-5.74%	-2.73%	26.46%	4.66%	-4.23%	27.85%
GE	38.38	-0.64	-1.64%	-4.84%	-4.95%	-6.46%	1.08%	-1.44%	3.01%	8.76%
CAT	70.41	-2.02	-2.79%	-5.82%	-6.17%	-12.32%	15.12%	-10.28%	-5.81%	18.94%
INTC	25.15	-0.78	-3.01%	-6.16%	-3.05%	-1.57%	23.59%	5.14%	11.93%	23.16%
MMM	79.51	-3.32	-4.01%	-6.34%	-7.69%	-15.57%	1.60%	-8.46%	-6.85%	0.77%
HPQ	48.39	-1.55	-3.10%	-7.65%	-7.78%	-6.13%	16.27%	2.91%	7.70%	22.32%
HD	28.05	-1.04	-3.58%	-7.73%	-10.53%	-16.12%	-31.70%	-21.63%	-28.41%	-23.88%
MSFT	33.73	-1.01	-2.91%	-8.99%	-3.71%	11.80%	12.96%	16.63%	9.58%	15.36%
C	33.10	0.20	0.61%	-12.27%	-22.36%	-30.85%	-40.09%	-29.42%	-38.84%	-34.60%
IBM	100.25	-5.86	-5.52%	-12.51%	-11.85%	-14.90%	3.07%	-9.46%	-3.95%	8.48%
GM	31.28	-1.87	-5.64%	-15.44%	-17.18%	-26.64%	6.21%	-10.24%	5.50%	-9.44%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

---

Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

The company reported this week by Value Line: Wal-Mart (WMT), which is a Cara 100, but a Company many people love to hate for some reason. I think the reason is that the gnomes of high finance are slowly accumulating the stock.

Wal-Mart (WMT)

(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)

Why do I like Wal-Mart for trading purposes? Well, I know there are few companies in the world that can, without fail, increase their important metrics every year for 20 or more consecutive years. From the Value Line report, scan through the data for each year for Sales per share, Cash Flow per share, Earnings per share, Dividends per share and Book Value per share. For every year, for every metric, there is an increase.

Moreover, Value line projects double digit annual increases for every metric. Besides, they rate the Company’s financial strength A++, show that Return on Shareholder Equity is a consistent 20 pct, and project annual Total Returns of between +11 pct and +17 pct for each of the next five years.

What’s not to like?

Besides, the RSI-7 is 33.8 / 35.9 / 25.1 for the Monthly-Weekly-Daily. As readers know, that’s not good enough for me -- almost but not quite. On Sept 10-07, WMT hit a 52-week low of $42.09, then ran to almost $48 in about 25 trading sessions. So we know the power of the market is there, despite the Bear that set into the Retailer group in August. The stock is presently $42.90, undergoing a re-test of the Sept low.

What I suggest is to buy the stock on weakness this week, or write a ton of 40 puts, or both. You will not go wrong if your time horizon is a couple years out. You will see Warren Buffett-like performance numbers in your portfolio.

If the stock does hit $40, you can console yourself with the knowledge that (i) a dividend yield of +2.2 pct (ie, 88 cents on $40) is secure, and will grow to a minimum of 2.5 pct next year, (ii) nobody in the entire world will have paid less than you since August 1999. Now Wal-Mart is known to offer some fabulous sales on merchandise. Why would anybody decide to pass up that one?

Don’t get down on America. Wal-Mart from rural Arkansas has become the world’s largest retailer because they understand the customer and know how to meet market demand. They know how to run a company successfully and they don’t pander to Wall Street. Hear, hear.

---

The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

---

Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

---

American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

---

Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

---

Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

---

Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Nov. 2: next one is due Feb. 1)

---

Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

---

Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

---

ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

---

General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

---

General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

---

Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

---

Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

---

Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

---

IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

---

Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

---

Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

---

JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

---

3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

---

Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

---

Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

---

Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

---

Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

---

United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

---

Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

---

Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Nov 9: next one is due Feb 8)

---

Wrap up:

I spent some time today going over the most basic principles of trading: buy quality and wait until the price comes to you. I did that because too many of you are impatient. You cannot succeed at trading by trying to force the market to do what you want. Let it run its course.

Whether you typically trade on the long side or short, you have to understand that the market is a dance. There is a time to lead and a time to follow, a time for Bulls and a time for Bears. Don’t try to buy every dip on the way down, unless of course you are a day trader.

Bear markets are defined by a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Sometimes the process takes weeks (like 1987), sometimes months (like 1981-82), and sometimes years (2000-2002).

That’s the thing about Bear markets: until they are over, nobody knows how low prices will go. Oh, there are charting services, like Elliot Wave for example that say they know, but trust me they don’t. And there are newsletter writers who proselytize in the extreme who do nobody any good.

Just remember the words of Charles Dow, and trust your own judgment and timing abilities. Things will work out. You’ll see a vast improvement in your portfolio results.

Have a great day. I’m rushing to a 10:45 am meeting, so I’ll have to fix the typos later.

---