The USD is sinking into oblivion as apparently Chinese businesses are diversifying into Euro in order to keep their own Yuan (closely linked to the USD) low and attractively priced for exports. Those with the money make the rules.

Sorry America; you have no money. It’s the Fed that is generating new money in the US (not businesses), but that is nothing but debt. And this American concept of corporate share buy-backs and dividend balloons, hatched by HB&B and the G-Team in Washington, is certainly no solution to meeting America’s liquidity needs because that is just shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic -- adding more debt to the capital structure.

If this keeps up, Crude Oil will soon be priced well over $100/bbl and Gold over $1,000/oz.

The US Administration says the employment situation is just peachy -- almost 170,000 net new jobs. If you cannot dismiss the number as being merely a contrived estimate, the line item detail will show that the high paying jobs in America are being sent abroad.

In Canada, the unemployment rate (at 5.8 pct) is reported at a 33-year low, but stats can prove anything, and besides the govt is doing most of the hiring. Recent grads are not impressed with their prospects of finding a job that will help them repay their student loans anytime in the next say 10 to 20 years.

In Japan, the unemployment rate jumped from 4.0 pct in Sept from 3.6 pct in July, which is a very telling development. Retail sales have dropped a lot.

Traders are being told that technology is leading the US equity market to new high levels, but why are the leading indicator semi-conductor companies mostly in the doldrums. That’s because chips are embedded in most everything called a durable good or involved in housing.

Let’s face it, durable goods orders were down -1.7 pct in Sept and -5.3 pct in August in the US, and housing starts and permits were down -10.2 pct and -7.3 pct respectively in Sept, to annualized rates that are both the lowest since 1993.

One of the biggest concerns, however, is that Crude Oil at $95/bbl is going to build costs into everything that oil is made into, such as plastics and other materials, not just fuel. Unlike Gold, which is used in jewelery and hoarded away in vaults (by smart people), Oil is the salt of the earth. We need it. Why even in my 4th grade class, my peers spent the whole day listing its many uses. :-)

So, when one looks at the big picture today, it is hard to be a believer that real prices are going higher. Yes, the indexes might rise from here, possibly, but commodity prices will move higher faster.

There will be a point where commodity prices have increased so high, so fast, that a recession will happen. It always does. And even without recession, we do know from experience that a stagnant economy plus inflation (ie, stagflation) is a killer of stock and bond prices.

It is a shame that the largest financial services firms in the world, like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and others, have to put the blame on and sacrifice the careers of their CEO’s in order to hide the seriousness of their problems. If every financial services company would come clean, we could at least take the hit, and begin to work on building a terrific future. Instead, we have to put up with the incessant lying.

The longer this attempt to reflate the global financial system goes on with no attempt to write-down assets to reality and no G-20 agreement on currencies, the worse off we all will be. Imagine, if you will, a corporation in the UK, Europe or Canada that a couple years ago built a factory based on a business model that worked at the currency exchange rates at the time. Those factories can no longer profitably produce products for export. The high-skilled workers of those countries can go to work for govt because the factories are being shut down.

What is happening in the Canadian automotive industry is a travesty. The Canadian govt has forked over billions of taxpayer money to foreign controlled corporations to build the best plants in the world, and the workers have contributed to the highest quality ratings in the world, and yet those plants are now being closed. Skilled workers are going on welfare. Those who are responsible for this US reflation policy ought to be ashamed of themselves.

The US policy can send the USD to zero and then give away Boeing Dreamliners to every foreign airline in the world. Yes, Airbus and the others will be out of business, but Americans will then have the world’s highest inflation rate, and an Administration still lying about it to their constituents who they must think are too dumb to see what’s going on.

I will not waste the time to belabor the point. What is happening today is obvious. Many US-controlled financial services companies are basically insolvent. The same thing happened at Enron with this off-book accounting. The public is not being told the truth. Enough traders do get it, and consequently are going to buy commodity prices to the max before the whole capital market collapses. They remember how fast Enron went from being America’s 7th largest company to being Chapter 7 bankrupt and its senior executives and advisors headed off to prison.

Enuf said. All we can do at this point is watch prices. RSI and MACD don’t lie. Focus on that and save yourself the grief of another 2000-2002 Bear market.

If you think your financial institution may be headed for problems, do what i did. I simply turned to a private Swiss bank, one that doesn’t do corporate finance or have conflicts with clients.

btw, I have had it with Fifth Third Bancorp (NDQ: FITB) as a Cara 100. When the stock broke down in July, I almost pulled it at the same time as E*Trade.

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International Economics Review

The following is a very comprehensive report as to the economic situation around the world today. I hope you read it.

Econoday Weekly International Report

US Economic Calendar for next week.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .

There has been a big drop in Daily RSI-7 >70 from 22 a week ago to 8 this week. Many of those stocks had been in the Distribution zone, meaning that this week they issued Sell alerts.

Each time a stock recovers and re-enters the distribution zone quuickly, and subsequently sets off a new Sell alert, the probabilities increase for a significant pull-back of >10 pct.

RSI > 70 (8)

RSI < 30 (12)

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Industry and Cara 100 “Impulse” Review

Applied weekly to major industry groups, the “impulse system”, based on the excellent work of Dr. Alex Elder, gives a sense of market internals. (I will do the screenshots later if I have time.)

“Jock” reports:

THIS WEEK saw  10 GREEN industries, and  8 RED, compared to last week’s 18 greens, 4 Reds.
 
(insert weekly impulse chart)
 
Of the Cara 100 components, 39 are GREEN (last week: 48) , 27 RED - (last week: 20):
 
(insert Cara 100 tables)
 
The component stocks of the major indices, on a weekly basis,  were (green/red):
 
(insert table: index components green-red)
 
Among stock indices, only the Nasdaq COMP and NDX were GREEN this week. The Wiltshire 4500 slipped to neutral. The S&P500 and DJIA were neutral with respect to their 26 wk. moving average, but broke below their 13 week.
 
The CRB commodity index stayed GREEN.  GOLD & SILVER stocks stayed GREEN.
 
The US dollar index stayed RED, and hit another all-time low.
 
The Hang Seng slipped to neutral,  while the Shanghai Composite stayed neutral.  
 
BOTTOM LINE: This week, the “net green industry” count dropped 12 (having gained 19 the previous week). Newly RED industries were: banking, financial services, insurance, and consumer non-durables.  These are unsettled markets!
______________________________________________________________
NOTE: Alex Elder’s “impulse system” considers both the “inertia” in prices (where prices stand vs. their 26 wk. moving average) and their  “momentum” (the rate their 13wk. and 26wk. moving averages are converging or diverging).
 
When both indicators (EMA and MACD-H) tick up, the reading is “green”; when both decline, it’s “red”. Applied weekly to major industry groups, indices, and their components, a sense of market internals emerges.

I expect to have a new screenshot routine worked out this weekend. The issue was not taking the screenshots, but archiving them on my server in a consistent format. Leopard has helped at my end, and now I am looking at a protocol for the server that will permit David, Jock and maybe others doing this directly, which will save me admin time.

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

“Traders are taking note of a possible double top.” (WIR 39, Sept. 29)

Thursday and Friday morning were tough on the Bulls, but midway through Friday the Financial Entertainment TV started to hype some stuff from Bill miller, probably taken right out of context, and there was a modest bump into the close. The DJIA closed at 13595.

I have pointed out for several weeks that “selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.”

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NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

The Nasdaq Composite closed at 2810 after a terrifying slide for the Bulls from Thursday at the open into friday morning. The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) must have been super-busy to arrange a bounce off the 2775 level.

There is some technical support at about 2725, but in the event prices take a nose dive, I wouldn’t count on it. The Winds are shifting, and the Bear has picked up the scent of nervous Bulls.

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The US equity market Sector ETF Summary

The tables I show are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

This week the scoreboard reads 2 up and 8 down. That's consistent with the DJIA, of which 25 components were up, and 2 down.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	34.25	0.18	0.53%	1.36%	-3.87%	-10.92%	2.03%	-9.65%	-7.71%	3.63%
XLU	41.92	0.33	0.79%	0.91%	5.81%	2.49%	13.85%	6.80%	-0.71%	16.96%
XLI	40.17	0.31	0.78%	-0.32%	1.18%	-3.39%	14.02%	0.35%	6.64%	18.18%
IYH	70.70	-0.15	-0.21%	-0.86%	0.41%	-2.32%	6.38%	3.96%	-1.56%	7.56%
XLP	28.01	0.16	0.57%	-1.16%	1.01%	0.39%	6.58%	4.32%	2.60%	9.46%
XLB	42.63	0.29	0.68%	-1.34%	1.26%	-0.65%	23.17%	7.95%	9.53%	27.67%
XLE	75.62	0.90	1.20%	-1.73%	1.57%	0.77%	33.65%	10.33%	17.82%	36.55%
XLY	35.69	-0.06	-0.17%	-2.06%	-0.86%	-6.00%	-7.35%	-4.50%	-9.62%	-3.23%
IYZ	31.60	0.32	1.02%	-2.50%	-3.51%	-7.55%	6.54%	-6.45%	-1.80%	10.37%
XLF	31.86	-0.22	-0.69%	-5.43%	-2.39%	-10.93%	-13.71%	-5.26%	-14.45%	-9.31%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

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10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Individual Sector ETF Review

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here’s the XLE Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

The Energy sector ETF (XLE) lost -1.73 pct W/W to close at 75.62.

Exxon (XOM -4.6 pct W/W) and Chevron (CVX -3.5 pct) dropped despite another huge run-up in the oil price. So while Crude Oil is up + $13.18/bbl in three weeks to $95.93, XOM is going nowhere but down.

Mr. Exxon and Mr. Chevron unfortunately didn’t phone ahead with a heads-up to say their earnings were amess, but, no matter. As I wrote to you a couple weeks ago, i could smell the rat, eg, “When these stocks drop in price at all, triggering Sell Alerts when Daily or Weekly RSI-7 values fall below 70 (depending on your time horizon, ie, short or intermediate), I am quick to take profits.

I don’t have the time to get into it, but when some Cowboy tells his TV audience there is no inflation, his neighbors in Irving TX, know the truth. They are getting beaten up by rising costs.

In any massive selling wave, even the stocks of the best quality companies get tossed. So bottom-picking is not advised. What until there is a bit of a recovery in these stocks before buying new positions. Use the Accumulation plus Buy Alert system (ie, Daily and/or Weekly RSI >30 depending on your time horizon) before you venture back in.

After the pull-back starts, it could be a few months, maybe longer, before share prices look attractive again. There are some who think the credit markets will so damage the US economy it will take a couple years to repair, in which case the domestic oils will likely be out of favor for a long time.

I do, on the other hand, accept the notion that oil is harder to recover, and the costs are rising so quick that cheap oil is no longer the case. But with the bountiful oil sands of the world able to produce oil in the 40’s, newer discovery and extraction technologies coming along all the time, and oil alternatives like solar, wind, uranium, etc, coming into their own, there is no reason for oil prices to be at 96, and headed higher.

btw, the Cdn oil sands companies in the Cara 100 did real well this week. EnCana (ECA) was up +8.2 pct, Imperial Oil (IMO) was up +6.2 pct and Suncor (SU) up as well. It would not surprise me if this US-Canada highway that people talk about is tied into long-range plans to build much more production in the oil sands, and the Alberta royalty program change may have been tied to that decision because most of the funding would be done by foreign interests.

Regarding the royalty program change in alberta, I guess the same happened in the US and Russia this year. Govts need money and they are going to find it where they can get it. They say there is no inflation, but their own costs are going through the roof. And as they raise taxes, that drives inflation higher.

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ECA	72.48	1.79	2.53%	8.23%	11.25%	15.76%	59.86%	15.38%	34.60%	55.24%
IMO	55.02	2.26	4.28%	6.22%	11.90%	13.33%	54.29%	19.92%	43.99%	60.74%
CEO	207.00	5.00	2.48%	4.65%	15.97%	26.19%	119.58%	77.39%	135.76%	146.11%
SU	108.54	2.39	2.25%	1.93%	4.15%	13.58%	46.85%	18.62%	32.48%	44.91%
PBR	93.30	-0.40	-0.43%	1.88%	15.60%	18.37%	87.24%	43.10%	82.83%	114.53%
TOT	79.22	1.87	2.42%	-1.52%	0.10%	1.71%	11.62%	3.18%	5.47%	17.78%
STO	33.43	0.87	2.67%	-2.11%	1.67%	3.18%	30.13%	13.55%	15.63%	29.93%
CVX	88.48	-0.56	-0.63%	-3.46%	-0.88%	-4.16%	24.67%	5.47%	12.51%	30.52%
XOM	87.93	-0.57	-0.64%	-4.64%	-4.57%	-3.75%	18.65%	3.23%	10.16%	23.51%

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

Here’s the XLB Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB (Basic Materials) lost -1.34 pct on the week to close at 42.63.

Yes, I do recognize the apparent folly in getting off the Gold bandwagon right now. As you know, I have ridden the metals Bull for a couple years, but a couple weeks ago “I started talking about a metals commodity price bubble that would sometime come to an end. To repeat, what I am doing here, just as I did for the Energy sector, is to say these stocks are in the Distribution Zone, and will soon trigger Sell Alerts. It will pay handsome returns to stay close to the Sell Button.”

The Fed came in with a liquidity injection of $41 billion one day this week. Once again, the short sellers got squeezed as gold took off to prices above 800. No matter, these injections are supposedly temporary. It’s only a matter of time before the sellers prevail. Even Bernanke can't print that much money. Should he try, the country is surely going into a severe recession because the system simply is going to choke on high commodity prices.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RIO	36.38	-0.05	-0.14%	2.48%	9.38%	8.40%	26.23%	-25.91%	-12.67%	39.17%
RTP	370.73	10.03	2.78%	0.74%	8.67%	6.36%	81.64%	34.27%	49.49%	65.08%
GGB	30.12	-0.19	-0.63%	-0.82%	6.43%	6.13%	83.43%	16.93%	48.37%	104.48%
AA	38.56	0.66	1.74%	-2.01%	2.99%	-0.59%	31.47%	1.80%	10.55%	35.30%
TCK	48.54	0.56	1.17%	-2.22%	0.60%	-3.80%	-29.91%	10.12%	-38.18%	-32.09%
BHP	83.73	1.30	1.58%	-2.82%	1.32%	5.29%	115.41%	33.05%	68.67%	95.63%
TS	51.51	-0.15	-0.29%	-4.75%	0.78%	-3.47%	6.16%	8.72%	11.49%	25.97%
MT	75.72	0.41	0.54%	-7.17%	-2.46%	-2.92%	85.59%	16.89%	39.40%	80.16%
NUE	57.91	0.00	0.00%	-8.69%	-2.06%	-0.22%	6.26%	14.06%	-10.45%	0.85%
PKX	166.40	0.41	0.25%	-10.14%	4.42%	-12.04%	109.49%	19.55%	55.53%	133.71%

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

Here’s the XLI Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation:

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABB	30.77	0.99	3.32%	3.71%	13.38%	14.09%	72.67%	28.37%	51.35%	110.18%
BA	97.76	1.16	1.20%	1.81%	4.11%	-4.39%	9.63%	-7.71%	4.19%	23.43%
UTX	75.65	0.93	1.24%	0.28%	-0.46%	-6.42%	20.44%	1.19%	10.60%	17.60%
GE	40.33	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.12%	0.72%	-3.45%	6.22%	3.33%	8.09%	16.19%
ERJ	47.88	0.19	0.40%	-0.15%	-0.13%	-0.10%	17.41%	9.39%	-1.26%	18.25%
HON	59.35	0.31	0.53%	-0.15%	1.77%	-0.79%	31.60%	0.51%	6.94%	41.75%
CAT	74.76	1.45	1.98%	-0.37%	1.62%	-6.93%	22.24%	-7.33%	1.85%	23.45%
MMM	84.89	0.99	1.18%	-1.44%	-2.00%	-11.43%	8.47%	-4.75%	0.56%	7.62%
FDX	102.43	1.22	1.21%	-1.45%	-0.86%	-3.42%	-6.69%	-7.63%	-4.90%	-8.62%

XLI (Industrials) lost -0.32 pct this week to close at 40.17.

This week, the steelmakers got hammered. PKX (-10.1 pct), NUE (-8.7 pct), and MT (-7.2 pct) all dropped.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

Here’s the XLY Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was carried along with the market higher due to pumping by the monetary authorities, but has been performer #8 and 9 for the past two weeks. I continue to say this ETF cannot go much higher because the American consumer has insufficient money or access to credit.

XLY dropped -2.06 pct W/W from to close at 35.69. This picture will not get better until consumers have tickee, ie, disposable income to spend. Instead, people are having their homes foreclosed.

Toyota (TM) gained another +3.0 pct W/W after a gain of +3.1 pct the week earlier.

Whirlpool (WHR) plunged -5.3 pct after dropping -3.0 pct the prior week.

Carnival Cruiselines (CCL) dropped -3.3 pct this week, due to rapidly escalating fuel prices and a storm called Noel. btw, while we were thinking that the storm was passing directly over Nassau on Thursday afternoon, as reported by NOAA Hurricane Center, that wasn’t the case at all. There was hardly any wind or rain in Nassau, and the children were out trick-or-treating. The next day there were major cruise ships in port and it was a good time for passengers.

Maybe the Bahamas govt ought to send these photos to the world media so they will come clean about the reporting of these storms. You can’t imaging how many phone calls I get from people saying they see by the satellite shots and weather reports that it’s raining etc in Nassau, when I have to say it’s another great beach day, and I’ll be sending the photos for proof.

With the Loonie at $1.0707, and bad weather on the horizon, just think how great it would be for Johnny Canuck to come pay me a visit this winter. :-)

If you got ‘em, spend ‘em. Trouble is too many people think they got ‘em, but what they have is money in one hand and IOU’s in the other.

Pay down that credit card debt now. It could be tough times ahead.

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TM	113.00	-1.45	-1.27%	2.98%	6.20%	-3.97%	-16.48%	-4.71%	-6.08%	-4.44%
BC	22.13	0.21	0.96%	1.24%	10.65%	-8.59%	-30.67%	-21.39%	-32.94%	-28.64%
NKE	63.87	0.05	0.08%	-1.15%	0.85%	5.83%	30.80%	12.15%	19.43%	37.65%
DIS	33.92	0.12	0.36%	-1.34%	0.33%	-4.37%	-0.82%	-1.28%	-4.99%	7.00%
SBUX	25.53	-0.30	-1.16%	-2.45%	-2.18%	-4.88%	-27.57%	-5.16%	-18.30%	-31.59%
CCL	46.10	-0.70	-1.50%	-3.29%	-2.43%	-9.25%	-9.52%	2.67%	-5.73%	-4.34%
EBAY	35.02	0.02	0.06%	-4.42%	-4.63%	-9.63%	16.08%	5.99%	3.86%	7.65%
JCP	53.29	-0.62	-1.15%	-4.86%	-3.72%	-22.44%	-31.73%	-22.55%	-33.14%	-30.73%
WHR	79.13	1.36	1.76%	-5.31%	-8.14%	-16.08%	-6.53%	-21.53%	-30.06%	-7.72%

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	82.48	1.67	2.07%	4.31%	8.61%	2.27%	67.98%	21.51%	36.92%	87.33%
WFMI	48.91	1.70	3.60%	2.54%	3.51%	-8.06%	7.54%	20.91%	7.16%	-18.65%
DEO	91.75	1.45	1.61%	1.25%	1.61%	1.45%	15.37%	12.12%	7.66%	23.17%
PEP	72.98	0.59	0.82%	0.88%	3.66%	-1.03%	16.36%	9.24%	8.89%	15.46%
WMT	44.19	0.16	0.36%	-1.01%	-1.76%	-2.60%	-7.07%	-5.44%	-8.47%	-8.49%
MO	72.11	0.23	0.32%	-1.18%	2.28%	3.67%	11.08%	7.40%	4.34%	18.10%
KO	60.51	-0.39	-0.64%	-1.72%	2.98%	4.20%	24.56%	12.77%	14.80%	29.54%
BUD	50.66	0.25	0.50%	-2.20%	-1.27%	-1.82%	2.93%	1.93%	1.54%	7.29%
WAG	39.11	0.08	0.20%	-2.66%	3.33%	-0.48%	-15.11%	-12.72%	-12.27%	-7.34%
PG	69.55	0.96	1.40%	-3.07%	-1.77%	-1.81%	7.76%	9.87%	11.51%	9.93%

XLP (consumer staples stocks) lost -1.16 pct W/W, closing at 28.01.

InBev (ABV +4.3 pct) had another good week. Walgreen (WAG -2.7 pct), and Procter & Gamble (PG -3.1 pct) were down on the week.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

Here’s the IYH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
UNH	48.94	0.39	0.80%	1.98%	3.14%	2.60%	-6.91%	1.20%	-9.02%	0.66%
DNA	74.83	1.72	2.35%	0.93%	-0.23%	-4.41%	-8.52%	0.73%	-8.89%	-8.18%
NVS	52.61	-0.26	-0.49%	0.90%	0.04%	-3.11%	-9.51%	-2.08%	-10.10%	-13.64%
JNJ	64.78	0.12	0.19%	0.75%	0.86%	-2.22%	-2.44%	6.14%	0.47%	-4.59%
GSK	50.82	0.01	0.02%	0.59%	0.12%	-6.01%	-5.56%	-2.01%	-11.89%	-5.77%
BMET	45.99	0.06	0.13%	0.24%	0.31%	0.48%	10.90%	1.05%	8.47%	41.68%
AMGN	56.62	-0.62	-1.08%	-0.98%	1.20%	-0.39%	-17.22%	10.07%	-12.99%	-24.81%
PFE	23.67	-0.28	-1.17%	-2.63%	-1.66%	-7.47%	-9.97%	-0.75%	-11.02%	-11.32%
AET	54.38	-0.64	-1.16%	-2.68%	2.89%	1.02%	26.82%	7.24%	12.66%	31.58%
BMY	28.88	-0.28	-0.96%	-2.92%	-1.50%	-4.02%	9.48%	0.91%	0.63%	18.02%

IYH (healthcare) lost -0.86 pct this week to close at 70.70.

The winner was United Health (UNH +2.0 pct W/W) and the loser was Bristol Myers (BMY -2.9 pct). Pretty quiet.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

Here’s the XLF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DB	126.55	-0.50	-0.39%	-0.39%	1.24%	-6.37%	-6.49%	-8.44%	-17.92%	2.26%
LEH	60.12	-0.38	-0.63%	-0.50%	5.07%	-6.03%	-23.54%	-0.55%	-20.36%	-20.89%
HBC	94.73	-0.79	-0.83%	-1.17%	0.88%	-4.03%	1.89%	1.59%	1.15%	-2.16%
GS	229.60	-10.61	-4.42%	-2.68%	5.47%	0.48%	14.39%	22.48%	4.61%	22.53%
CS	63.01	-1.29	-2.01%	-4.75%	-4.24%	-9.48%	-10.13%	-5.57%	-20.03%	1.84%
UBS	49.27	-1.48	-2.92%	-8.47%	-9.63%	-14.68%	-19.74%	-10.61%	-24.72%	-17.51%
JPM	43.15	-1.17	-2.64%	-8.81%	-4.15%	-9.31%	-10.24%	-3.23%	-17.89%	-8.00%
MS	58.90	-3.52	-5.64%	-9.08%	-4.92%	-14.51%	-27.84%	-7.80%	-30.18%	-20.58%
C	37.73	-0.78	-2.03%	-11.49%	-10.93%	-21.88%	-31.71%	-20.13%	-30.52%	-24.15%
MER	57.28	-4.91	-7.90%	-13.33%	-13.55%	-25.29%	-38.81%	-21.05%	-37.19%	-34.15%

“Whenever you read of reflation, it’s a sign that the Financials are being pumped.” Unfortunately, another +$41 billion injection by the Fed didn’t do much. That huge sucking sound emanating from the financials was Citi and Merrill Lynch losing their CEO’s, each of whom will leave with compensation packages well over $100 million while the shareholders and staff get taken to the cleaners.

This week, the Financial ETF (XLF) plunged -5.43 pct to close at 31.86. Three weeks ago it closed at 35.49. The air is coming out of the Financials faster than CNBC can crank up another Bill Miller balloon.

This week, the losers were Merrill (MER -13.3 pct W/W including -7.9 pct on Friday), Citigroup (-11.5 pct, including -2.0 pct on Fri.), JP Morgan et al (JPM -8.8 pct, including -2.6 pct on Fri), Morgan Stanley (MS -9.1 pct, including -5.6 pct on Fri.) and UBS (UBS -8.5 pct, including -2.9 pct on Fri.).

I wonder if the bonuses get affected this year. Donald Trump and the NYC prestige auto dealers also want to know.

I said in the last WIR,

“l don’t care how much they drop the rates, I still wouldn’t touch this group with a barge pole. These shares have been distributed all year, so why would I think the Fed dropping rates to help stall for time for HB&B to work out their credit market issues is going to be a fix-all? You know it’s a BAD DAY for Merrill Lynch when the MER gained +8.52 pct on Friday and still lost -0.26 pct W/W, and that was after plunging -11.9 pct the previous week. Their Chairman/CEO apparently thought the heat in the kitchen would be better over at Wachovia (WB). His colleagues straightened him out on Friday. Mess, mess, the Street’s a mess.

Yes, the Street is a mess. We just don’t yet know how bad it is.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Here’s the SMH Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SNDK	44.43	0.54	1.23%	8.31%	4.03%	-14.72%	6.50%	-15.80%	4.54%	-5.00%
INTC	26.80	0.30	1.13%	3.32%	1.90%	4.93%	31.70%	10.29%	22.21%	29.59%
ORCL	22.03	0.27	1.24%	3.19%	6.17%	-0.68%	25.81%	9.66%	16.81%	20.45%
INFY	50.62	0.70	1.40%	2.84%	3.90%	-3.45%	-9.32%	2.30%	-5.75%	-1.75%
ADSK	48.81	1.01	2.11%	2.43%	3.94%	-3.46%	20.34%	17.05%	16.41%	35.51%
CTSH	40.90	1.26	3.18%	2.40%	2.20%	-4.66%	5.20%	-2.62%	-3.03%	9.04%
CSCO	32.51	0.33	1.03%	1.91%	3.21%	-0.43%	17.20%	7.90%	17.49%	35.18%
ADBE	47.88	0.96	2.05%	1.87%	3.48%	7.26%	19.94%	21.15%	15.35%	27.14%
QCOM	41.34	0.05	0.12%	0.02%	2.56%	-4.66%	10.36%	-1.67%	-6.62%	13.63%
SAP	53.25	0.45	0.85%	-0.84%	-0.58%	-10.10%	0.09%	-3.27%	10.91%	8.45%

SMH (semi-conductors) plunged -5.16 pct to close at 33.79. Just think, at the close three weeks ago this ETF was sitting at 38.45.

SanDisk (SNDK) and Intel (INTC) were up +8.3 pct and +3.3 pct respectively, way more than making up for the prior week’s losses. I suppose if the Financials are going down, the Bulls need something to hang onto.

A week ago, I wrote, “Note that the July high was not surpassed by the Sep-Oct high. Bad sign if you are a Bull.” There is no change in my outlook for the Tech stocks.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

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Here’s the IYZ Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ (telecommunications) dropped another -2.50 pct W/W to close at 31.60, despite a gain of +1.02 pct on Friday. Six weeks ago, IYZ closed at 38.58, so this sector is on a serious slide.

As I wrote, “Note that the July high was not surpassed by the Sep-Oct high. Bad sign if you are a Bull.”

Verizon (VZ -2.7 pct W/W) and AT&T (T -2.5 pct) were down along with the rest in this sector.

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

Here’s the XLU Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

This week, XLU (Utilities) had another gain, but it was just +0.91 pct (most of that on Friday), to close at 41.92. The ETF has not gone anywhere for three weeks.

Again, take note that the July high was not surpassed by the subsequent Oct high. Bad sign if you are a Bull.

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.45	3.66	3.80	3.82
6 Month	3.61	3.77	3.87	3.99
2 Year	3.68	3.75	3.76	4.01
3 Year	3.65	3.74	3.77	4.04
5 Year	3.95	4.01	4.05	4.24
10 Year	4.32	4.35	4.40	4.56
30 Year	4.61	4.64	4.70	4.79

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.29	3.33	3.26	3.46
2yr AAA	3.30	3.31	3.35	3.50
2yr A	3.32	3.33	3.39	3.48
5yr AAA	3.42	3.45	3.42	3.47
5yr AA	3.42	3.47	3.36	3.49
5yr A	3.53	3.56	3.59	3.69
10yr AAA	3.79	3.83	3.74	3.76
10yr AA	3.69	3.74	3.70	3.74
10yr A	4.02	4.06	3.87	3.89
20yr AAA	4.39	4.36	4.37	4.51
20yr AA	4.58	4.56	4.56	4.71
20yr A	4.39	4.37	4.38	4.52

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.54	4.58	4.57	4.72
2yr A	4.71	4.75	4.67	4.89
5yr AAA	4.72	4.79	4.80	5.00
5yr AA	5.01	5.02	5.01	5.13
5yr A	5.00	5.04	5.00	5.19
10yr AAA	5.17	5.23	5.27	5.43
10yr AA	5.60	5.54	5.58	5.69
10yr A	5.79	5.66	5.68	5.73
20yr AAA	5.02	5.72	5.71	5.84
20yr AA	5.86	5.87	5.88	6.21
20yr A	6.05	6.06	6.05	6.17

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Are you watching yields in the bond market?

According to the (PROBABLY INCORRECT) table at Yahoo, Treasury yields lifted +17, +24, +28 and +29 basis points to 4.87, 4.64, 4.33 and 4.07 pct for the 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year paper, respectively. The yield on the 3-month T-Bills are shown to have moved from 3.80 to 3.85 (and 3.63 pct two weeks ago). BUT, I DON’T THINK THE TABLE IS RIGHT.

PARTLY THIS COULD BE MY TEMPLATE PICKING UP THE WRONG WEEK. IF SO, SORRY.

THE INVESTERTECH CHART SHOWS A YIELD OF 4.291 PCT ON THE US 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE, WHICH I THINK IS CORRECT. SO, PLEASE LOOK AT THE CHARTS AND NOT THE YAHOO TABLE.

Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Interactive Daily data charts:

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Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.

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This week, TLT and TIP gained +0.60 and +0.62 pct respectively, according to the table, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ACCURATE.

When you look at these charts from the end of June, when the Consumer Spending disappeared and the Credit Fiasco appeared, the Bond market seems to be shouting, “Recession dead ahead!”

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Monthly Data Charts

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SHY Monthly data series chart:

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IEF Monthly data series chart:

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TLT Monthly data series chart:

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AGG Monthly data series chart:

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LQD Monthly data series chart:

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TIP Monthly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TIP	103.99	0.57	0.55%	0.62%	0.99%	2.66%	4.80%	4.00%	3.03%	3.90%
TLT	91.04	0.29	0.32%	0.60%	0.64%	3.13%	2.21%	4.22%	2.94%	1.62%
IEF	85.09	0.23	0.27%	0.25%	0.21%	2.27%	2.91%	3.58%	2.69%	2.49%
SHY	81.37	0.06	0.07%	-0.15%	-0.07%	0.49%	1.66%	1.42%	1.55%	1.60%
AGG	100.55	0.11	0.11%	-0.21%	-0.18%	1.70%	0.64%	2.31%	0.50%	0.48%
FRE	48.33	-1.10	-2.23%	-8.27%	-8.90%	-23.81%	-28.81%	-14.63%	-27.08%	-28.83%
FNM	52.61	-1.89	-3.47%	-12.36%	-10.60%	-21.83%	-12.11%	-10.77%	-12.05%	-9.95%
CFC	14.35	-0.08	-0.55%	-17.05%	-5.78%	-29.14%	-65.92%	-46.40%	-61.49%	-62.79%

Two weeks ago, Countrywide, Freddie and Fannie plunged -18.73 pct, -12.50 pct and -10.89 pct. In one week! Then last week, CFC jumped +13.6 pct on the back of a rocket (+32.4 pct) on Friday. FNM gained +4.8 pct on Friday, leaving a gain of +2.0 pct W/W. FRE gained +4.2 pct on Friday, but that was not good enough to stay above water as the stock lost -0.7 pct W/W.

I wrote in last week’s WIR, “This is not the definition of an efficient market. Henry Paulson wasted his breath last week telling the Chinese to change to a market-driven currency. Trick or Treat, Henry. Pass the weed. You must be smoking something if you think you can sell your efficient market crapola on people who have an IQ higher than 80.”

This week, CFC plunged -17.1 pct, FNM -12.4 pct and FRE -8.3 pct. So much for that academic nonsense called Efficient Market Hypothesis, and really if the Congress could impeach the Treasury Secretary it might not be a bad thing. It’s a long wait until January 2009.

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

The $CRB has had nine very impressive gains in the past ten weeks. The index now stands at 351.01 after a gain on the week of +5.14 (+1.49 pct).

The 50-day Moving Average for $CRB is now at 328.54 and the 200-day MA is 315.75.

As I say, “As long as the $USD is headed south, $CRB is going to be going north. Fool those commodity producers once, shame on the Fed; but, fool them twice, shame on the producers. They are not that stupid to be producing metals, and oil & gas, and agri products in exchange for wooden nickels.”

But, this collapse in the USD levy will have to be shored up, but unlike New Orleans, this one doesn’t need more money printed. It needs tighter govt spending, higher taxes and some controls on HB&B.

How about that Merrill Lynch Enron-type trick by taking garbage off the balance sheet to hide it from the regulators? It was probably a material act of deception, for which, if true, people ought to be going to prison.

In any case, I get nervous when commodity prices go to extremes -- this time up and in mid-August, down. There are reasons why these prices cannot go on forever in one direction.

Just a warning.

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

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Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Crude Oil futures continue to rocket higher. Come in Houston. Prices have cleared orbit.

$WTIC (US Light Sweet Crude called West Texas Intermediate) jumped another +4.07/bbl to close at 95.93, a record high weekly close.

As I see it still, CNBC is the take-out party for somebody big. In addition, there seems to be a rush by nations to price their currency lower than the next one.

The 50d MA for $WTIC is 81.75 and the 200d MA is 69.61, so Oil at 95.93 is in orbit.

Oil stocks (XLE) have not kept pace with the $WTIC, and in fact have been headed south. I think the gap must be closed, one way or the other. I don’t see any hope for the Big Oil companies of the US as they just reported smaller earnings and forward quarters is looking poor as well according to Value line.

Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Since a low of 651.60 on August 17, $GOLD has zoomed to 808.50, a gain of +24.1 pct in 11 weeks. Another way of looking at it, I could say that is a whole Bull market in eleven weeks. And many of you have thanked me for keeping you in the game during those dog days of August when I was enjoying the beach.

Thanks to an increasingly weaker $USD, the PM beat goes on. $GOLD jumped +21.00 (+2.67 pct) this week, and +19.10 (+2.49 pct) last week.

For $GOLD, the 50day MA is now 738.16 and the 200d MA is 685.18.

I am sure that the world’s leading Finance Ministers and Central Bankers are concerned. The cost inflation, ie, wages, materials, energy -- call it headline or core inflation -- (LOL) to produce any product is zooming.

Why even the cost to produce gold is zooming. It is becoming increasingly hard to find new gold, and more countries like Venezuela and Mongolia are making it harder to get permits. Above or below the table, the people in those countries want theirs. And oil royalties are soaring in Canada and Russia, so the cost there is rising rapidly.

So the question is how much longer can the G-7 lie through their teeth about inflation. It is nowhere near 2 pct if you happen to be working in the oil fields or the gold mines. Maybe the elderly on social assistance programmes can be fed that line, but drillers, miners, poor countries and rich oil sheiks are no longer accepting wooden nickels.

That’s a powerful reason for the long-term picture to be so rosy for commodities. As a trader, however, my concern is the here and now. I continue to advise that prices are overblown and come back hard on a heartbeat. I saw it in 1980 and 1981.

btw, most of the W/W gains in the precious metals and in the PM-related stocks happened on Friday. Please stay alert.

Spot gold chart for the week

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

This week, $SILVER gained +0.32/oz (+2.23 pct) to close at 14.60.

I think I used a wrong number last week. You should point this out; I’ll correct stuff. I go so quickly through this report that I often don’t take the time to re-read material.

For $SILVER, the 50d MA is 13.33 and the 200d MA is 13.29.

On August 17, the price hit a low of 11.06, so the move to 14.60 in eleven weeks is a gain of +32.0 pct.

Actually, now I do recall that “joey” did correct me and I fixed the blog, but not the text in the template.

As I say, “successful traders sell into strength but they also don’t sell a rally. They wait for a bit of a pull-back. that’s why I use the Distribution Zone and the Sell Alert system. With the prices rising so quickly, it pays to use an Hourly RSI-7 calculation. Many even use a 15-minute RSI system.”

Once I start offering advisory services to clients, I will pay to get real-time data in the BillCara2.com service, which will give me intra-day hourly and also 5, 10, and 15-minute RSI calculations, which (the calcs) I will offer free, and will probably build into charts linked to the blog.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT lost -6.40 (-0.44 pct) this week to close at 1462.70.

The 50d MA for $PLAT is 1362.13 and the 200d MA is 1294.04.

Spot platinum chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL gained+1.65/oz (+0.43 pct) to close at 381.95.

The 50d MA is 357.68 and the 200d MA is 361.92.

Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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“Like I say, maybe this market is leading the PM group? I am not so certain, but if I were unhedged, I’d be watching it all by the hour.” (WIR +43, last week)

This week, $COPPER lost -21.25/contract (-6.01 pct W/W) to close at 332.50.

The 50d MA of $COPPER is 350.72 and the 200d MA is 330.50, so the current price (332.50) is still above the 200d MA, but well below the 50MA.

That may be saying that recession is closer at hand than we might think.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	20.39	0.93	4.78%	10.82%	20.51%	33.79%	78.55%	61.83%	48.83%	54.94%
BVN	57.76	1.01	1.78%	9.31%	10.12%	18.75%	109.20%	44.26%	70.99%	115.52%
NEM	51.61	2.10	4.24%	8.49%	13.03%	13.28%	16.76%	23.68%	23.56%	12.42%
GG	35.72	1.82	5.37%	6.91%	11.97%	15.75%	30.65%	42.82%	44.67%	36.39%
ABX	45.62	3.12	7.34%	5.97%	9.66%	11.49%	52.93%	37.82%	54.23%	47.78%
AEM	57.40	2.49	4.53%	4.55%	6.91%	10.85%	47.48%	35.76%	60.87%	53.35%
AUY	14.98	0.57	3.96%	3.88%	7.54%	26.31%	21.49%	38.45%	7.69%	38.19%
MDG	40.93	1.57	3.99%	3.80%	6.37%	22.33%	55.69%	53.01%	58.64%	62.42%
GFI	17.76	0.44	2.54%	-2.15%	-0.28%	-1.99%	-3.11%	10.45%	-3.06%	2.72%

This week, $XAU gained +5.22 (+2.86 pct) to close at 187.63. But Friday’s gain was +3.66 pct.

The 50d MA is 165.40 and the 200d MA is 146.56.

I continue to advise not to get caught in a smash-up, so move your stops up, tighten your seat belts, and don’t hand back those hard-earned gains.”

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading.

The trade-weighted $USD index dropped a further -0.96 pct W/W to 76.26.

I assure you, a year ago there was no US economist appearing on Financial Entertainment TV forecasting a 75 cent USD. Certainly not on CNBC. Kudlow would have booed the person off the air.

The following data is a simulation of the M3 as of the past week.

“US M3 (estimated) continues to grow at an excessive rate, as it does in Europe. Central bankers are constantly diluting all fiat money at extreme rates. They have no option under the circumstances. The economy is relatively strong, but the credit markets are imploding.”

I don’t recall how long ago I wrote that, but it still applies. The economy might be showing signs of a slowdown however, so maybe that will help the Fed drop rates, but also tighten liquidity through FOMC operations. That would strengthen the USD, and also help commercial banks continue to drop their prime rates, removing pressures from the imploding credit markets, which I think is the main reason why the USD is plunging.

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The Euro ($XEU) this week gained +1.25 (+0.87 pct) to close at 145.07.

The Euro’s 50d MA is 140.46 and the 200d MA is 135.73.

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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This week, the Pound jumped +3.79 (+1.85 pct) to close at 208.95.

The 50d MA is 203.23 and the 200d MA is 199.73.

Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

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Weekly Japanese Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen ($XJY) lost -0.36 (-0.41 pct) to close at 87.15.

If you want another indicator of where the North American and European equity markets are headed, you can watch the Yen:USD pair. If the Yen strengthens a lot, it is likely that Japanese capital is being pulled out of foreign markets and debts to banks are being repaid.

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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The Canadian Loonie continues to rip. This week, it traded up +3.15 (+3.03 pct) to close at 107.07 American. The gain on Friday alone was +1.61 pct.

Some outwardly looking Canadians think this is terrific. From a low of 84.22 ib the 1Q, the price at 107.07 is out into space.

The Loonie’s 50d MA is 99.73 and the 200d MA is 92.54, which aren’t even in the same world with the current price 107.07).

This is good opportunity for Canadians to buy ocean-front condos in South Florida and Bahamas (US$ at par).

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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International Equity Markets Review

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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Table 13: International equities via an ETF perspective (ie, $USD)

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IFN	63.35	1.15	1.85%	9.60%	22.53%	16.09%	39.72%	38.77%	55.23%	38.89%
EWC	35.91	0.78	2.22%	3.97%	7.00%	6.94%	45.38%	18.83%	28.43%	45.38%
QQQQ	54.42	0.42	0.78%	0.91%	3.78%	3.03%	25.86%	12.58%	17.23%	29.45%
EWZ	83.10	-0.08	-0.10%	0.85%	9.91%	7.03%	77.94%	29.54%	55.07%	96.92%
TRF	72.83	1.23	1.72%	0.45%	5.02%	3.91%	-17.75%	10.10%	3.61%	8.21%
EWU	26.83	0.25	0.94%	0.07%	3.67%	1.71%	13.93%	8.05%	7.45%	16.55%
EWJ	14.15	-0.03	-0.21%	0.07%	1.87%	-3.41%	-0.35%	-0.56%	-1.46%	2.69%
IEV	122.41	0.84	0.69%	-0.43%	2.78%	1.17%	15.92%	7.14%	5.94%	21.80%
FXI	208.25	0.20	0.10%	-0.60%	4.49%	8.69%	78.91%	53.02%	93.11%	140.75%
SPY	151.25	0.22	0.15%	-1.54%	1.06%	-2.95%	6.99%	2.44%	1.12%	10.58%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Monthly data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Monthly data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly and Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Monthly data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

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US Equity Markets Review

A dozen NASDAQ stocks to watch.

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Here is the Monthly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Interactive Chart of Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

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Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
MSFT	37.06	0.00	0.00%	5.80%	22.84%	24.20%	24.11%	25.54%	21.07%	28.95%
INTC	26.80	0.30	1.13%	3.32%	1.90%	4.93%	31.70%	10.29%	22.21%	29.59%
BA	97.76	1.16	1.20%	1.81%	4.11%	-4.39%	9.63%	-7.71%	4.19%	23.43%
MCD	59.02	0.02	0.03%	0.94%	4.61%	4.70%	34.53%	20.47%	17.99%	40.36%
IBM	114.59	0.94	0.83%	0.76%	2.06%	-1.47%	17.81%	1.20%	12.10%	24.99%
JNJ	64.78	0.12	0.19%	0.75%	0.86%	-2.22%	-2.44%	6.14%	0.47%	-4.59%
UTX	75.65	0.93	1.24%	0.28%	-0.46%	-6.42%	20.44%	1.19%	10.60%	17.60%
GE	40.33	-0.01	-0.02%	-0.12%	0.72%	-3.45%	6.22%	3.33%	8.09%	16.19%
HPQ	52.40	0.90	1.75%	-0.13%	1.95%	2.95%	25.90%	8.65%	22.06%	35.79%
HON	59.35	0.31	0.53%	-0.15%	1.77%	-0.79%	31.60%	0.51%	6.94%	41.75%
CAT	74.76	1.45	1.98%	-0.37%	1.62%	-6.93%	22.24%	-7.33%	1.85%	23.45%
DD	47.96	0.02	0.04%	-0.85%	2.33%	-3.21%	-2.20%	1.74%	-5.10%	5.38%
WMT	44.19	0.16	0.36%	-1.01%	-1.76%	-2.60%	-7.07%	-5.44%	-8.47%	-8.49%
MO	72.11	0.23	0.32%	-1.18%	2.28%	3.67%	11.08%	7.40%	4.34%	18.10%
DIS	33.92	0.12	0.36%	-1.34%	0.33%	-4.37%	-0.82%	-1.28%	-4.99%	7.00%
MMM	84.89	0.99	1.18%	-1.44%	-2.00%	-11.43%	8.47%	-4.75%	0.56%	7.62%
KO	60.51	-0.39	-0.64%	-1.72%	2.98%	4.20%	24.56%	12.77%	14.80%	29.54%
AA	38.56	0.66	1.74%	-2.01%	2.99%	-0.59%	31.47%	1.80%	10.55%	35.30%
GM	36.99	-0.26	-0.70%	-2.07%	-1.62%	-3.17%	25.60%	10.78%	14.03%	6.72%
T	40.42	-0.04	-0.10%	-2.51%	-2.30%	-4.08%	15.65%	-0.44%	4.50%	18.81%
PFE	23.67	-0.28	-1.17%	-2.63%	-1.66%	-7.47%	-9.97%	-0.75%	-11.02%	-11.32%
MRK	56.04	-1.32	-2.30%	-2.67%	5.52%	4.73%	27.31%	8.52%	9.39%	23.44%
VZ	44.38	-0.36	-0.80%	-2.68%	0.25%	-1.86%	17.35%	2.90%	12.07%	19.98%
HD	30.40	-0.29	-0.94%	-3.03%	-1.17%	-11.16%	-25.98%	-19.62%	-21.55%	-18.28%
PG	69.55	0.96	1.40%	-3.07%	-1.77%	-1.81%	7.76%	9.87%	11.51%	9.93%
AXP	58.42	0.03	0.05%	-3.71%	2.29%	-4.39%	-3.21%	-4.09%	-6.89%	1.67%
XOM	87.93	-0.57	-0.64%	-4.64%	-4.57%	-3.75%	18.65%	3.23%	10.16%	23.51%
AIG	59.12	-0.17	-0.29%	-4.88%	-6.56%	-14.80%	-18.06%	-7.35%	-16.05%	-11.34%
JPM	43.15	-1.17	-2.64%	-8.81%	-4.15%	-9.31%	-10.24%	-3.23%	-17.89%	-8.00%
C	37.73	-0.78	-2.03%	-11.49%	-10.93%	-21.88%	-31.71%	-20.13%	-30.52%	-24.15%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Value Line Report(s) this past Friday

There are two companies reported this week by Value Line: Coca-Cola (KO), which is a soon-to-be-Cara 100, and Altria (MO), which will never be.

From the Value line report for Coca-Cola, look down the 16 year data series for Earnings, Cash Flow and Dividends and you will see Y/Y increases for all three for 16 straight years in these three metrics except for an earnings bump in 1999 (currency related?). This company is a model of consistency and is A++ financially rated by Value line. Return on Shareholder Equity is above 30 pct with operating margins about 33 pct.

Long-term bottoms were last seen in 2002 and 2004. For students of the market, a Sell Alert was triggered during Thursday’s sell-off. This is a stock that you can wait to come to you. It will be a long time before we see a high of 62.15 as set on Oct 30. If the company does manage to report annual earnings of $2.68 this year, that high is a PE multiple of 23.4, which is well ahead of what this company will average in a high inflation environment when average PE multiples tend to drop. In fact, I wouldn’t pay more than 20 times current earnings, which at 42.68 for the year (depending on the forecast of $0.56 for the 4Q, that takes my interested level down to $53 or less from the present $60.51.

For Altria, I don’t want to waste my breath. For anybody consuming their products it could be the last. Besides, I resent the name change from Philip Morris, sounding something altruistic, when the only thing they give you is death.

Anyway, to each his/her own. If you won’t read the package labeling, you know you are addicted. Nothing I’m going to say is going to change that.

The company is restructuring, and the insiders, friends and family will know what’s up before you or I, so even if this was a clean-living company, I’d avoid the stock.

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Altria (MO)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Feb. 1)

Coca-Cola (KO)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Feb. 1)

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The Dow 30 Company links

Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Billcara2 chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Billcara2 chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Feb. 1)

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Billcara2 chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Billcara2 chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Billcara2 chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30. Cara 100]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Billcara2 chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Sep. 21: next one is due Dec. 21)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Billcara2 chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Billcara2 chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Billcara2 chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report Aug. 3: next one is due Feb. 1)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Billcara2 chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Billcara2 chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Billcara2 chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Sep. 14: next one is due Dec. 14)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Billcara2 chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Billcara2 chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Billcara2 chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Billcara2 chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Billcara2 chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Billcara2 chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Billcara2 chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Oct. 13: next one is due Jan. 11)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Billcara2 chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Aug. 31: next one is due Nov. 30)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Billcara2 chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Billcara2 chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Sep. 7: next one is due Dec. 7)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara US 100 June 25-06]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Billcara2 chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report Aug. 17: next one is due Nov. 16)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Billcara2 chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Billcara2 chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report Aug. 24: next one is due Nov. 23)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Billcara2 chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Oct. 19: next one is due Jan. 18)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Billcara2 chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report Oct. 5: next one is due Jan. 4)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Billcara2 chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Oct. 26: next one is due Jan. 25)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Billcara2 chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Sep. 28: next one is due Dec. 28)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Billcara2 chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report Aug 10: next one is due Nov 9)

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Wrap up:

I rushed this WIR because I have been spending lots of time learning the MAC OS this weekend. Today was for learning iNumbers, which is quite different than Excel. Also, I have been switch my mail/address book and my word docs to Mac.

As you can see, this is all primary school stuff, but if I don’t learn it, I can’t graduate. I need the skills in order to do this WIR in say six hours.

Little by little, as I learn stuff, my comfort level is rising. But this is by no means as easy as Apple pretends.

And maybe that reality took some of the oomph out of today’s comments. I know it took me away from the Patriots-Colts ballgame, and I’m now being called to dinner at 7pm. So, as they say, enough is enough.

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