RE:
Leisa,
Had never heard of Krishnamurti till yesterday...can you provide a brief run down on why he is appreciated?
TIA
Posted by: Jaketh at November 24, 2007 9:10 AM

You might find some info here.

http://tinyurl.com/2bfuvc

Good Morning Bill and everyone else.

Jim Puplava at Financial Sense has a great audio 'gold show' up on his site. He also interviews Dr. Ron Paul. You can download the audio in MP3 format or stream it right off the site. Cheers

http://tinyurl.com/2c5ja6

RE:
Leisa,
Had never heard of Krishnamurti till yesterday...can you provide a brief run down on why he is appreciated?
TIA
Posted by: Jaketh at November 24, 2007 9:10 AM

You might find some info here.

http://tinyurl.com/2bfuvc

Posted by: moneygenie at November 24, 2007 10:17 AM

Hi,
Sorry but that site does not work. Try this one.

http://tinyurl.com/2w27wq

Hello everyone,

“RELIGIOUS THINKING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MAN'S TRAGEDY”
Krishnamurti

This is why I trade prices!!

http://tinyurl.com/2w27wq

Read :5. No Way Out:

Satyajit Das, the derivatives expert (author of several books and articles), says this crisis has a long way to run. He comments on the “supersized” leverage stemming from the slicing and dicing of risk and the vast expansion of credit derivatives, which now total $516-trillion (U.S.), accounting for an amazing 75 per cent of the world's liquidity."

"In a normal world, a bank keeps $1 of real capital on its balance sheet to support $12.50 worth of loans it has underwritten. That's conservative banking. But today, the credit markets use $1 in real capital to support $30 worth of loans through all sorts of exotic structures.

The resolution of the current credit crisis will take years, not months..."

Globe & Mail: http://tinyurl.com/2mbobv

Bill, I've been going over a list of stocks that come up on a scan I do based on the Elder Impulse system. For shorting opportunities I look for stocks that still have a relatively strong weekly RSI, but have a downward sloping 13 EMA and MACD Hist on both the weekly and daily charts.

My recent results include a high % of stocks from the Aerospace & Defense sector -- BEAV, FTI, ESL, PCP and ITA (which is the iShares ETF for the sector).

This is probably not a big surprise given the collapse in Boeing since October. But these are all companies that have had strong earnings and revenue growth, so I'm inclined to view this as yet another indication of the health of the overall market.

number2son...

I have been looking into the aerospace and defense sector also...After this bear market gets into full swing..I have been looking for places to start reinvesting my cash...

Here is a reprint of an article I found very useful..Because this market reminds me of 73-74

Yet, the markets don’t care one bit what you or I want. They’ll do whatever the heck they want to. If we want to survive and even thrive, we have no choice but to go with the flow. Fighting the markets is hopeless. And if you are going to ride the bear, there are two very dangerous misconceptions prevalent today that could do you great harm. Neither are supported by history, they are fabricated fears.

The first is that a cyclical bear is sharp and fast, like a crash. This couldn’t be farther from the truth. The 1973 and 1974 cyclical bear took two full years to unfold, not a matter of weeks like a crash. After the initial selloff which was similar to what we’ve seen in the last several weeks, there were only two additional months with steep declines (marked above). So don’t look for a crash, look for a long, demoralizing period of gradual selling on balance.

The second is that a stock bear will drag down everything with it. This myth has no basis in history and is solely the result of careless analysts extrapolating the behavior of the last few weeks out into infinity. During the 1973 and 1974 cyclical bear for example, gold literally tripled over the exact period of time that the stock bear ran. And elite gold miners’ stocks followed gold up on balance over this period of time, not the general stocks down.

Both of these increasingly popular misconceptions are very important and I would like to address each in its own essay. But if some rookie with little knowledge of history who has never actively traded through any bear has tried to convince you that gold stocks are doomed with general stocks, I’d encourage you to read an essay on this very topic I wrote last month. Not all stocks fall in bear markets, and a gold mine is probably the best thing any investor can hope to own when general stocks are burning around him.

Realize that a Great Bear exists to drive down valuations to undervalued levels. Thus the most richly-valued stocks are the most susceptible to sharp declines. But stocks that are already undervalued, like many elite commodities producers, ought to thrive. They, along with precious-metals stocks, become real-asset-based safe havens in bears, beacons of refuge for flight capital to bid higher.

What Bill hs been saying...

http://www.zealllc.com/2007/beareve.htm

And so it begins:

http://tinyurl.com/24nacz

The Aussies seem to like their politics extreme as their governance will now shift sharply the other way. Wonder how enviro-extremist policy will impact the giant Aussie mineral complex?

-

Bill,

As per your advice I have begun futher investigation into the question I posted yesterday about the relationship of volume of interlisted stocks.

I received From: Gordon Pape (gordon.pape@buildingwealth.ca)
Sent: November 24, 2007 9:23:44 AM

Hi – There may well be arbitragers at work – they keep a very close watch on currency spreads and will often do turn-around trades based on them. There may be statistics somewhere on this, but I am not aware of them. GP

Gordon Pape

Publisher, The Income Investor, Mutual Funds Update, and the Internet Wealth Builder

I will contact TSE and TDWATERHOUSE in the future.

Oops...:D

Just what our BB&B buds didn't want JohnQ investor to know:

http://tinyurl.com/2h3npv

Richard Suttmeier has been all over this as well as the sad shape of the banks. He's calling for an oversold correction next week as the Bears prepare to feast upon the Market, aided and abetted by the FOMC.

Davidowitz on the U.S. consumer: "the worst is yet to come...it's going to get evry ugly."

http://tinyurl.com/yosbv6

Redclaydawg:

If I am not mistaken the Australian uranium miners or wannabe miners had a very difficult time getting going because of the strong coal lobby so this may be a boost for uranium.

The fact that " Labor has been out of power for more than a decade, and few in Rudd's team - including him - has any government experience at federal level. His team includes a former rock star - Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett - a television journalist and former union officials."
reminds me of the situation Bob Rae was in Ontario, Canada a number of years ago...little if no governing experience + cooling economy led to less than ideal results for Onatrio.

golfer. Rudd has a brilliant mind, international experience and speaks fluent Mandarin. He will surround himself with the brightest and the best. Canada has also had the brightest and the best, but some are now biding their time in jail.

I believe Rudd will lead Australia in to a new and exciting era. China and India will be looking on very closely. Poor George Bush must be feeling a bit sad now that he las lost another old crony.

Eheh Horatio, a former US President supposedly surrounded himself with the "best & brightest"...gimme some calloused old hands anyday!

golfer, the principles of Newton will be re-learned by the Aussies methinks. Tumult is sometimes a positive thing for us all isn't it?

Imo, those concerned about economics should be less anxious that their prima donna politician gets into power. Hasn't this been the source of the credit bubble collapse?

Posted a weekly comment on GBN.V to Stockhouse.com:

http://tinyurl.com/342pob

Contained are comparisons in the junior gold sector.

The timeline seems to be the hardest thing to pin down. For safety in this environment I will be playing minute to minute if I have skin in the game, and I'm in the process of transferring as much cash as possible to PM's on USD strength.

Bill see's the same type of environment Colin Twiggs does (see my post from last night).

The thing that stuck out to me in all the carnage of CT's latest was this quote:

"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof."
~ John Kenneth Galbraith.

However, some proof is of this ilk and some is "proof of concept" a proof tested by time.
In his Nov. 22 diary, Colin ends much like Bill does.

"My conclusion from the January 2007 newsletter still stands: It is likely, however, that we will witness a market down-turn in the next 12 months. We will need to remain vigilant throughout 2007 -- particularly in October, the start of several previous down-turns."

To me the proof is in, and the long term trend is now bearish. That is how I intend to see it longterm.

But, I don't want to caught in Galbraiths trap, so I have to keep an open mind and look for real indicators.

On a short to medium view, it is possible that go34 is onto something with DOW, betting the USD will strengthen, oil will fall and he will see a bounce in December on improved margins and perhaps a general market bounce into the end of the year. If he's wrong and the market sees a rapid downturn because the fed doesn't cut, I'm sure he will have hedged himself. If oil falls due to a slowdown and stronger USD it is likely that gold will go with it short term, until the fed is forced to cut to not only save HB&B, but the economy, if they can.
So I'm thinking his LT gold view looks past December and he would probably add to it on a downturn toward $600.

Since I know I'm listening and studying well meaning professionals I have to figure out what the heck I'm going to do in the short run.

Unknown to MarkM, those charts he left still have a story to tell.
This one: http://tinyurl.com/2ectq6
is NYSE Bullish percent. You can see Friday at the bottom of that cliff, not quite as deep as August yet, but the thing that would tell of a change is our friend the RSI, which is 16.8. Note the MACD sloping south. Sentiment is more or less unchanged.
Then there is: http://tinyurl.com/2f78g9
This one is NYSE new lows. Maybe go34 is onto something here. This is new lows, so a falling RSI is "good" for the bull. Note the RSI fell from near 70 to 43.71. That little stop at the bottom of the cliff isn't that impressive, but the MACD is in positive territory and now turned down. As a trader I have to look at that.
If I were trading an equity called "new lows" short term and the macd turned down like that and the RSI fell from near 70 I would have already sold it and been looking to buy "new highs". As a trade.

The timeline is still the issue to me. I know Bill and Colin are right longterm and go34 probably agrees, but short term if "new lows" and go34 are right then I should not only buy "new highs" for a trade, but use the rally to build a short position in the DJIA as the odds are in favor of at least another 20% to the downside, if not something far more serious.

I was initially confused by go34's long gold/oil falls/DOW chemical call, (as PM's will likely correct too) but the timeline seems to be the difference and it broke me out of my box enough to see the possibility of sentiment shifting, even if only for a few days or weeks, and a possible opportunity to trade select equities if it happens, but to lower my short position basis.

I still don't know the future. Dang!

Lets say the $US shows some strength and other currencies have had their run of overshooting.

That would have a direct effect on how gold prices are evaluated. Gold prices would strengthen in other currencies leading to support in the $US bullion price (once it comes off its high.)

There is a brutal short term outlook in all sectors as the long term is appreciably abandoned. This means seasonality comes to the front. Seasonality has been in vogue for at least two years or more, as each season becomes more volatile.

Crude prices are subject to seasonality, though it is now out of seasonality and climbing on its own. Oil price economics are at the core of inflation in various commodity sectors. (I would say except for gold)

craig- thanks for your synopsis/links...hoping for a good set-up next week...

I have a general question about FXI: if Chinese stocks stay flat on some day but yuan rises against USD, will FXI rise as well in this case? If so, then doesn't it make FXI a great long-term play, since yuan is bound to rise against USD?

Thanks...

P.S. I have a friend who is doing business in China, and he heard from some officials there that by 2020 China plans to match US in military power and surpass it economically to have 8 USD exchanged for 1 yuan.

"When the movement in the direction of becoming something other than what you are isn't there any more, you are not in conflict with yourself." U.G. Krishnamurti

Now that's an interesting observation. I think I'd enjoy reading about his beliefs even though with just a cursory look, he doesn't seem to believe in religion/God and I do...although I'm certainly not a Bible thumper. I also enjoy and agree with many of Bill Mahar's beliefs (Real Time on HBO) and he's definitely an atheist, by his own pronouncement. So, in all such cases I just take from the plate what works for me and leave everything else on that plate.

I'm one of the older ones on this board and like to always keep an open mind. An old dog can learn new tricks! lol

a really really well thought out article that adds weight to my idea that the Euro as a currency, a concept and a unifying principleof europe will not last long. or will at the very least slim down membership at some point in the coming decade.

i find it funny how short people's memories are, the european mainland has seen war non-stop for centuries, and a short period of relative peace post WW 2, which exludes russia, yugoslavia and Hungary, people felt europeans would be able to bask in their Europeaness and stave off the americans to regain global supremacy...

i wonder if the US believes the failure or weakening of the euro via political instability may result in a flight back to dollars...

though this is all very long term considerations of a mad doctor ;)

----------------------

Will Europe impose exchange controls to head off disaster?

by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 23 Nov 2007

The die is now cast. As the euro brushes $1.50 against the dollar, it is already too late to stop the eurozone hurtling into a full-fledged economic and political crisis. We now have to start asking whether the EU itself will survive in its current form.

Is the eurozone set to go up in flames?
It takes eighteen months or so for the full effects of currency changes to feed through, so the damage will snowball late next year and beyond into 2009. Although "damage" is a relative term.

As Airbus chief Thomas Enders warned in a speech to the Hamburg workers last night, Europe's champion plane-maker - the symbol of European unification, in the words or ex-French president Jacques Chirac -- is now facing a "life-threatening" crisis.

Mr Enders said the company's business model is "no longer viable", and "massive losses" are on the horizon. So much for all those currency hedges that analysts like to cite. Have they ever tried to buy a currency hedge? They would discover how expensive these instruments are. Hedges cannot protect a company with $220bn in delivery contracts priced in dollars, when the euro/sterling cost-base is leaping into the stratosphere.

The sudden rocketing in sovereign bond spreads this week between core German Bunds and Club Med debt - Italian, French, Spanish, Portuguese, Greek, as well as Irish, Belgian and Slovenian - is a clear sign that markets are starting to price in a break-up risk for the single currency, however remote. Italian spreads have risen beyond the danger point of 40 basis points. This is less than the 100bp or so seen in Quebec (viz Ontario debt) when it looked as if the separatists might prevail. But it is dangerous nevertheless.

Moreover, these bond spreads are telling us that liquidity is drying up and that monetary policy is now too tight for the eurozone, as it is across much of the developed world. Two-year bond yields are collapsing in the US, Britain, and the Anglo-Saxon states, a signal that markets are now discounting possible recession. The whole central banking fraternity seems behind the curve, spooked by residual (lagging) inflation - and prisoners of a defective economic model (Neoclassical/New Keynesian synthesis). This is how the 1930 recession metastasized, although one doubts that Ben Bernanke will allow Part II to unfold this time. He has spent half his life studying the blunders of the Fed in 1930-1932.

One thing is sure, President Nicolas Sarkozy will not let Airbus go bankrupt, nor see decimation of the French industrial core, without an almighty fight against those countries deemed to be engaging in a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy of currency devaluation - benign neglect in Washington, less benign in Beijing.

He will have allies soon enough, once the housing bubbles collapse in Spain and across the Med. Mr Zapatero will not be in power for long in Madrid. Mr Prodi is on borrowed time in Rome. A new political order will soon take hold in much of Europe, bringing in a new wave of prickly national populists.

So, how will they fight? Will Mr Sarkozy and his allies resort to 1970s-style exchange controls to stem the rise of the euro?

They certainly have the power to do so. Four years ago a little-known cellule at the European Commission wrote a report - on prompting from Paris - exploring the legal basis for measures to stabilize the currency.

After combing through the EU treaties and court judgments, it concluded that Brussels may impose "quantitative restrictions" on capital inflows.

"Should extremely disturbing capital movements endanger the operation of economic and monetary union, Article 59 EC provides for the possibility to adopt restrictive measures for a period not exceeding six months," it says.

It would be renewable each six months, so the policy would in fact become permanent.

Any decision would be taken by EU finance ministers under qualified majority voting. Britain would have no veto, even though the effects of such a move on the City of London would be catastrophic - and trigger the certain withdrawal of Britain from the EU (and good riddance, some might say in Paris).

This "disturbing" capital movement is occurring right now. Portfolio inflows into the eurozone reached a record EUR46.2bn in September. China, Asian wealth funds, Petrodollar sheikdoms, and now even Nigeria, have all joined a stampede into euros, utterly disregarding the underlying reality that Europe is in no better shape the United States itself. It is in worse shape, though this is disguised by the cycle. It is much worse in terms of economic dynamism and demographics.

Confidence has cratered in Germany, and the Netherlands, not to mention Belgium - which has not had a government for 165 days, and is now sliding towards disintegration. Since Belgium is a metaphor for the EU - an arranged marriage of squabbling tribes, speaking different languages, who do not love each other, and never did - this in itself amounts to a tremor for the EU system.

EU industrial orders fell 1.6pc in September. Spanish, French, South Italian, and Irish house prices are already all falling.

Spreads on the iTraxx financial index of 25 European bank and insurance bonds have jumped to a fresh record, worse than during the depths of the August crunch. The iTraxx Crossover of low-grade corporates is back to crisis levels above 400.

The European Covered Bond Council suspended trading in covered bonds this week because the spike in spreads had become disorderly, and three-month Euribor rates have gone through the roof again, and that is the rate that sets Spanish and Irish mortgages. Bond issuance in Europe is frozen.

France is in the grip of a national strike costing EUR2bn a day. The railways are paralyzed. The country's 5.2m public workers are staging walk-outs.

Is this a currency bloc that should be now be deemed the ultimate safe-haven, the repository of trust in a dangerous economic world? This hodge-podge of disputatious clans, lacking a central Treasury, government, debt union, and guiding philosophy - let alone the sacred solidarity of a nation?

Returning to the Commission cellule, it said that: "Among the actions that can be undertaken when a member state experiences serious balance of payments difficulties, Articles 119 and 120 EC provide for the possibility to reintroduce 'quantitative protective measures' against third countries."

The measures are of course exchange controls. This is the nuclear option, but Europe's politicians could equally invoke Article 104 of the Maastricht Treaty giving politicians the power to set fixed exchange rates (by unanimous vote) or a dirty float for the euro (by majority).

The document is annexed to the Commission's 2003 EU Economic Review. Nobody paid any attention at the time, just as the Commission had hoped - at least that is what one of the authors told me. This is the EU's Monnet Method, one silent fait accompli after another.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy certainly seems inclined to go this route. He has again invoked his ideas for "Community Preference" - ie, a closed trade bloc - in a speech this month to the European Parliament. Contrary to claims, he is not letting go of his mercantilist plans.

The ECB may or may not intervene in the currency markets to cap the euro. But this is a red herring. Europe's retort - if and when it comes - will be far more political, and far more dramatic. We are at one of History's "inflexion points".

One recalls the months leading up to the collapse of the Gold Standard in 1931. That was triggered first by Credit Anstalt in Austria and then by a British naval mutiny in Scotland.

Any bets on what will trigger the collapse of Bretton Woods II? I wager that it will be a decision by the Gulf states to break their dollar pegs, leading to a temporary surge of euro purchases. That will tip Mr Sarkozy over the edge.

Just idle speculation.

Horatio:

I did not vote for Bob Rae but I beleive he matches Rudd in 2 out 3 categories as I am not sure he speaks fluent Mandarin.

He surrounded himself with "the brightest and the best" of what he had to choose from. His problem was he didn't have a big pool to draw from at the time. Rudd may have an edge here in that his party has had past experience in governing. George Bush surrounded himself with the "brightest and the best" but many of us don't like what they are the "brightest and the best at."

Buy as redclaydawg says, "Tumult is sometimes a positive thing for us all isn't it? Isn't it?

To paraphrase Dickens who wrote, "It was the best of times. It was the worst of times"...It is normal times. It is abnormal times.

FYI for those curious about my chosen screen name. It refers to J. Krishnamurti I like the thoughts of J. Krishnamurti. I know nothing about UG Krishnamurti.

http://tinyurl.com/2bfuvc

dr.cosa at November 24, 2007 1:51 PM

Appreciate the article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

that's pretty funny krishnamurtidude...everyone was assuming it was UG krishnamurti, but you like J Krishnamurti. On UG krishnamurti's page, it says that he is the "anti J Krishnamurti".

This is also the last time that I will type krishnamurti...:)

JOCK - that presentation I linked two days ago "the gurufocus.com one by Ackman" was actually given in May at the Value Investing Congress. Since insurers are favorite holdings of value types, it is very likely that many of them had their eyes opened by that analysis. The next VIC is this (Nov. 28). Ackman is presenting again. If you remember, he had the 2 billion put into Target. He also owns a big chunk of Sears now. There are rumors that he will pressure Sears to give up some of that prime real estate for Target. Might be good for a quick pop, or to establish a longer term position. Only thing that gets me about SHLD is the big chunk of C that Lampert picked up in the 45-50 range...Ouch! Who knows how long that is going to weigh things down. Check out http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=16588 and his website valueplays.blogspot.com

golfer. I can asure you Kevin Rudd speaks fluent Mandarin. His major in University was Chinese and Asian studies and was the Australian Ambassador to Beijing in the 80's.

On Krishnamurti: Try this link: http://www.prahlad.org/gallery/krishnamurti.htm Moneygenie's link is to U. G. Krishhnamurti--a different person. I'm currently reading Sogyal Rinpoche's Tibetan Book of Living and Dying--to provide teachings to help provide compassionate love and care to the dying. And if you want to get an idea about what a spiritual teacher is all about, you can watch Rinpoche here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tIBYxed16s
(Now I just found this you tube--and I see that there are a few others). I hope that you'll take a few minutes to really listen to what he is saying.

I have a rather eclectic collection of books, Krishnamurti has a little more shelf space than most! He was spiritual teacher--considered by many, to his dismay, to be a guru. Reading his books is like having a conversation. He and David Bohm (Einstein's pupil) also did a book together. Krishnamurti received the UN medal of peace.

Krishnamurti, like most spiritual teachers regardless of their cultural grounding/practice (Jewish, Christian, Muslim), transcend the traditional boundaries of dogma.

Here's a quote

"Truth is a pathless land. Man cannot come to it through any organisation, through any creed, through any dogma, priest or ritual, nor through any philosophic knowledge or psychological technique. He has to find it through the mirror of relationship, through the understanding of the contents of his own mind, through observation and not through intellectual analysis or introspective dissection..."

"I have a general question about FXI: if Chinese stocks stay flat on some day but yuan rises against USD, will FXI rise as well in this case? If so, then doesn't it make FXI a great long-term play, since yuan is bound to rise against USD?

Thanks...

P.S. I have a friend who is doing business in China, and he heard from some officials there that by 2020 China plans to match US in military power and surpass it economically to have 8 USD exchanged for 1 yuan."

Posted by: David [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 24, 2007 1:41 PM

David- not an economist, but will take a shot at answering your question from a common-sense POV:

first pass:

a) assuming chinese stocks are priced in yuan..
b) assuming FXI actually invests in the securities underlying the index it seeks to track..
c) assuming by "flat" you mean shanghai closes at the same price it closed the day before..
d) if the yuan rises 5% against the USD, this should have little effect on the stock price of a chinese stock to a chinese investor (won't say no effect, as most chinese companies are affected by exports to the US)..
e) furthermore, if the yuan rises 5% against the USD, would it not in fact require 5% more USD to buy the same 25 chinese stocks?..
f) however, since the fund ALREADY OWNS these 25 stocks (no need to buy or sell), if the FXI trades flat in the face of a 5% rise in the yuan:USD, then see no reason for the price of the ETF to change; ie, it is "insulated" from the exchange ratio to the extent it does not buy or sell any securities..

second pass:

if, however, you own FXI and sell it the day after the 5% rise in the yuan, then given a static price in FXI, you have just lost 5% on a dollar basis...and somehow this doesn't seem "fair." if you own an EFT that tracks chinese stocks, and those stocks are now valued 5% higher on the basis of a favorable (to you) change in the currency rate, then i think you're entitled to cash in on that 5% if you sell...

third pass:

if you sell FXI the day an exchange rate takes effect, then i think you will receive the USD equivalent of the underlying index based on that day's exchange rate...so perhaps the FXI fund has a pricing mechanism in place that continuously adjust the EFT price both in terms of the trading prices of the underlying 25 stocks, and the exchange rate at any particular time..

fourth pass:

FXI trades when shanghai is closed and the US is open->price variations when trading in the US must then be based on futures contracts on the chinese stocks +/- exchange rate fluctuations..

taking a shot from the hip- would say the answer is FXI would be valued 5% higher, but no doubt someone smarter and more knowledgeable will provide the right answer...

Retailers Post Robust Start to Holidays

http://tinyurl.com/2rklzd

"According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets, total sales rose 8.3 percent to about $10.3 billion on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, compared with $9.5 billion on the same day a year ago. ShopperTrak had expected an increase of no more than 4 percent to 5 percent."

Looks like this will give the bulls Ammo to push the market higher next week. Should have covered those shorts and reloaded next week. I need to learn to move faster for sure.

Rob.

Don't remember which Kurshi said it, but I love the one that goes...
"On any given day, the market looks a good deal more like it does now than it used to."
With these guys around, who needs Bill Cara?

I ve been trying to understand how open interest works and what it tells us about a market's strength of direction. I found the data at schaeffersresearch that I was looking for, but unfortunately it seems to be available ONLY for the daily closes of the past 4 weeks. If anyone out there knows how I can look at the DAILY OPEN INTEREST (aka open interest configuration) beyond 4 weeks please give me a clue.

Thanks. jfs

Shoppers were out in FORCE! More than last yr according to my sit in traffic meter. I refuse to get tricked into spending. My family has taken a do not give, do not get, policy this yr.

its only a matter of time. tick tock tick tock. I surely expect a pop on the market this coming week with front page headlines reading "Consumer fights off recession." and "What Subprime problem?" and "It's the Consumer Stupid."

I cant wait for the circus to come back into town monday.

basketguy- thank you for a very valuable link..

if we are in fact in the midst of a 17-year secular bear (interrupted by violent cyclical bull traps), then any buy-and-hold strategy (long or short) will leave you with disappointing returns. if we're going to grind down slowly, one step up and two down will be the pattern and swing trades will maximize gains. also good to be reminded of gold/mining performance during bear markets...

basketguy- thank you for a very valuable link..

if we are in fact in the midst of a 17-year secular bear (interrupted by violent cyclical bull traps), then any buy-and-hold strategy (long or short) will leave you with disappointing returns. if we're going to grind down slowly, one step up and two down will be the pattern and swing trades will maximize gains. also good to be reminded of gold/mining performance during bear markets...

krishnamurtidude,

I apologise profusely for assuming.

Dr. Cosa - re: threats to the Euro.

I read with interest your submission. To assess credibility, I always check out an author's past. I was surprised to read Wikipedia's (unchallenged) characterization of Evans-Prichard as a rabid Clinton-hater who, as Daily Telegraph Washington correspondent, uncritically published (and thus legitimized) many wild Arkansas rumors:

http://tinyurl.com/27j94g

His lack of economics background and his highly ideological orientation make me question his judgment on the future of the Euro. I think other readers may also want to be aware of the source of your information.

Still, I always appreciate information which stretches the mind. It's the scenarios you HAVEN'T anticipated that tend to flummox. Thanks.

I find it interesting how many on this board are attempting to find a position in the QID. On the other side you have Charles Kirk taking 100K positions on the long side in another US market ETF. He shows his positions at least for now. The day he bought and the day he sells. He wins most of the time in big numbers. It is just interesting from the stand point that there is always someone willing to take the other side of the trade in a big way. He claims not to have a good read on gold, so he rarely trades it. No opinion here; just a view.

jfs November 24, 2007 6:18 PM

Yes options, open interest and volume, different things.

Suggest you check out the CBOE website, they have an excellent online learning section on options. Also you could check out the Investorpedia link below which has a quick explanation of open interest.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/openinterest.asp

In very simple terms you and I could open a contract say on a put at a particular strike price for a particular month, one contract has been created. Then one or both of us could sell our end of the deal, to other people, creating trading volume in that option and it could happen several times creating more volume. But there is still only one contract and thus open interest is still only one.

Now at some point the contract could be closed by the two parties agreeing to sell and buy it back from each other thus terminating the contract and all obligations. If there is more than one contract outstanding it doesn't have to be the original two halves, just one on each side. At this point there is one less contract and thus the open interest drops by one.

I'm not aware of any site (free) were you can chart open interest, I'm sure some of the pay sites offer that service but they are expensive. Let me know if you find one. The Schaeffer site is a good one and you might also want to look at OptionMonster.com it’s a little slow but also has some good info.

Hope this gets you started, always more research to do.

Don Coxe has articulated that the US Banks are in a "death grip" with the falling US dollar.

http://tinyurl.com/ysk7wu

And that we are now in Stage 2 of the global credit crisis: moving out from sub-prime to mortgages in general.

He expects a technical recession in US, but that commodities demand in China will remain strong.

Bob Hoye expects a US Dollar rally in 1-2 weeks. And is cautious on shorting the market due to seasonal strength in Dec.

http://tinyurl.com/2rwfpw

But expects major weakness in the Financials in Jan-Feb 08 due to poor 4th quarter earnings.

stktrader- taking the other side is usually the way to go...

re QID, recent posts would indicate players (willing to talk about it) on this board were early buyers and either holding with a decent basis and longer time horizons, or recently pared back and looking for re-entry points...at least a couple (not me) have considered playing both sides...

don't follow kirk, but a few members here whose opinions i respect think highly of him...so if kirk is long, have to add that to the mix...

thanks for the post

Quasi,

Thank you very much. I will work on that in the morning.

jfs

Thanks for the "shots" you gave in answering my question, 2nd_ave! I will now try to combine your answer with what I have learned on the Web on this issue in a "single shot." :)

First, here is an explanation of how index ETFs work, which I found on the web: "Basically, a large trading house buys a groups of stocks that mimic an index, and place the stocks into a trust. Then the trading house sells shares in the trust. Since they are traded throughout the day, the per share price on an ETF can drift away from the underlying asset price. In practice this never happens by much. If the price gets off by a little bit, the fund creator's computer will notice. In this case the institution that created the fund typically can add stock shares to the trust and create more ETF shares, or redeem ETF shares for shares in the underlying stocks." Then, here is a quote from the disclosure of Vanguard international stock ETFs: "International stock ETFs are subject to currency risk, which is the chance that the value of a foreign investment, measured in U.S. dollars, will decrease because of unfavorable changes in currency exchange rates."

The above suggests that the price quoted on AMEX for an ETF is the fair value of the underlying basket of international stocks in USD. Thus, if the Chinese stocks stay flat during some day but USD falls, then FXI should rise. If I am missing something here, please let me know.

David November 24, 2007 11:48 PM

"The above suggests that the price quoted on AMEX for an ETF is the fair value of the underlying basket of international stocks in USD. Thus, if the Chinese stocks stay flat during some day but USD falls, then FXI should rise. If I am missing something here, please let me know."

Yes David I agree with you and 2nd_ave, in this scenario FXI priced in US$ will rise and you have made a profit in US$. But don't forget the downside is that the US$ are now worth less and thus have less buying power, could end up being net zero gain. Trick is to spend those US$ on something before the guy on the other side of the trade realizes they have less value than yesterday.

I find these are very difficult times to put real values on things. Being in Canada I see the whole currency thing from a different angle. I see alot of my investments really haven't done much when compared to percent increases in the USA. But when I consider my portfolio I have to manually include the increase in world buying power I now have. I think this is something that many US investors fail to consider when they look at only the percent increase, they forget to manually include the decrease in their buying power.

Just some other ideas from the now cold icy north, getting late, too much wine, time to go to bed.

Hey Quasi, where in the cold icy north are you? I'm 220 km northeast of Yellwoknife in a mining camp right now. It's -37C with the wind.

Bill,

For short term decisions you look at Daily and Weekly RSI. When both are under 30 and Daily raises above 30 it's a short term buy trigger ?
When at that moment Monthly RSI is at 50, this should not be problem for a short term investor but a long term investor should wait for a better moment, right ? And what is the difference in time horizon for a short term (daily/ weekly-rule) investor and a long term investor (daily/weekly AND monthly rule) ?

Thanks.
Mark

Moneygenie--that you mentioned U. G. Krishnamuriti is quite interesting. I was not familiar with him, and I researched him and see that he and J. Krisnamurti had some fractious discussions. Anyway, I'm going to definitely get one of his books, and I appreciate your "slip". I'm a serendipitous reader/learner, so thank you for this serendipitous link to that.

Now and futures prediction chart for gold has changed:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/predict_gold.png

Looks like the seasonality is intact for Gold, so I am assuming for now that going into Q1 we'll see something similar to Q1 2005. Various bullion prices in foreign exchange have broken out, save the $C and the $A. The $C breakout is the one I'm waiting for, and will probably revive some interest in the junior golds.

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/dailyshort2000.html

Dollar index remains unchanged:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/predict_usdx.png

Just thought it worth mentioning that there are still plenty of bulls left in the market. Given all the tempting signs in the index charts and in individual stocks, I won't be surprised in the least if we get a rally next week. Fueled, no doubt, by chatter about the strong open to the Christmas season.

But, we'll see if it has legs.

Sorry, I was saying that we will see something similar to Q1 2006, not 2005.

ALOHA !!

Here is a useful section out of the Federal Reserve Bank's website. It is the "Enforcement
Actions". You can chose any year starting with 2007 and going back as far as 1997.

Here you can check to see if there has been any enforcement action against your bank or your bank's personnel.

If you review this page you will find lots of enforcement regarding "written agreements" and "terminations" with many banks including some very large banks such as Bank America and other large global banks such as Sumitomo Mitsui(Japan) and Banco De La Nacion Argentina. Written agreements are done for any such matter from money laudering to fraudulent trading practices.

You will also see listed "orders of prohibition" against various bank employees and directors for fraud. None admit any wrong doing but agree to a fine and/or penalty. No jail time is ever mentioned.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2ftz5w

Thought this might be of interest to some of the community.

Forget sitting upright to prevent back problems: radiologists
Last Updated: Monday, November 27, 2006 | 11:05 AM ET
CBC News

People who like to recline at the office have a new excuse for kicking back: it may be better for your back.

Researchers used a magnetic resonance imaging machine, or MRI, to study sitting postures and determine which is best for back health.

A woman sits in the 135-degree position on the special MRI scanner.
(RSNA) They concluded that sitting upright for hours places unnecessary strain on the back, leading to potentially chronic pain problems.

"A 135-degree body-thigh sitting posture was demonstrated to be the best biomechanical sitting position, as opposed to a 90-degree posture, which most people consider normal," said Waseem Bashir, author of the study and a clinical fellow in radiology at the University of Alberta Hospital.

"Sitting in a sound anatomic position is essential, since the strain put on the spine and its associated ligaments over time can lead to pain, deformity and chronic illness."

Bashir presented the study on Monday at the annual meeting of the Radiological Society of North America in Chicago. The team suggested people may prevent back problems by finding a chair that allows them to sit at 135 degrees.

There are other links for related information available if you link to the original article.

Quasi and rugger09:

I am about 100kms east of Winnipeg overlooking the Winnipeg River.

While I won't make a prediction on the direction of the market I am going to go out on the limb and predict that the river will freeze over within the next 10 days and ice fishing will begin by mid December.

Bill has learned many things about the market etc. by watching "dancers" but I watch Nature.

You cannot ice-fish without ice.

"For every time there is a ..."

Sitting: I've always had a desk job. Sadly, I'm a very focused worker, too. So in meeting a deadline or wrestling something ugly, it would not be unusual for me to sit for extended periods (10+ hours) over several days. I'm also a huncher. Accordingly, I would have to visit the chiropractor once a year during one of these periods..

While few of us can recline at work, a very useful antidote is to lay on the floor, arms spread with one's feet or lower leg (knee and lower) resting on the chair. Generally best to have pants on if you are a woman, or at least a closed door!

Also there are a number of exercises (of course I know about them, but do not DO THEM!)which you can find here: http://www.soundtells.com/YogaSitting/Online/index.htm

FWIW,,,The nasdaq summation index has reached
-818 and the nyse summ indx has reached -663.

When the NASI index hit -900, and the NYSI index hits -700 look for the rally to begin into year end.

The last time these two hit this general level was in mid-Aug. 2007.

Here's my post from Aug. 9th

"Any one here follow the summation for the nyse or nasdaq??

In my followings of it I have found that bottoms are formed when th NASI(naz summation) is between -900 and the nyse is below-700.

I've been following it since 1999 and it seems fairly good.

It is a broad indicator however, but if you pick stocks that tend to move with the mkt., you can make a decent buck.

Also, when the mkt volatility starts to move up and down irradically in 100+ point moves it tells me that there is a change in trend coming soon.

Maybe this is the start of capitulation.

All thoughts welcome.

Posted by: dabonenose at August 9, 2007 3:43 PM"

rugger09 and golfer

You guys beat me, I'm in southern Ontario next to the big lake (Ontario), so things are a little more temperate here. Only -3C today, some ice and a little snow. It should be +3C mid week and then I can put away the lawn furniture and drain the garden hoses, etc etc.

lawn furniture...garden hoses?????

re seat posture-

i have always found i think/work best leaning back in an armchair with my feet on the desk and elbows on the arms->either a notepad/pen or wireless keyboard propped on the lap...may not look professional (at least, not yet!), but you can sit like that for hours without strain...

Leisa:

I have a desk chair that I can set and maintain that 135 d angle between the back of the chair relative to the seat. Thus, when I do not have to be hunched over i.e. just reading the screen etc., I can sit in that position...seems to work.

I wonder how many of us with bad backs also know those exercises and also don't do them and also HOLD ONTO LOSERS TOO LONG. I hope we are not the dreaded "M" word.

Golfer "I hope we are not the dreaded "M" word." I'm afraid to guess your meaning.

Maso.... I don't even want to say it, it is like a golfer never wants to use the dreaded "S" word.

"S" and "M" in the same sentence? lol

Snowman

Snowman:
8 strokes on a 4 par
10 strokes on a 5 par,etc.
Not everyone plays.

Craig:

Was it you that mentioned that you are involved in farming?

I have a company called Hemisphere GPS (HEM.TO) that I have been in and out of over the years. I am looking to take another position in it. I was going to get in last week at $2.68 using my old buying method but have been waiting it out because I am going to use this AZ, RSI technique that I am new to.

Since HEM focuses on the agricultural and marine market I was wondering what your take is on the GPS technolgy related to farming?

TIA

2nd_ave;

the dreaded "double-negative"

stktrader;

"snowman" = 8 because 8 looks like a snowman.

the "S" word refers to a SHANK which is a swing that results in the ball leaving the clubhead at basically right angles when you were intending it to go forward. The problem with it is it does strange things to the mind. The usual reaction to the shot is, "What the hell was that?...followed by "What causes that" to "Not again" to "not again" to ...When it gets really bad it becomes a viscious circle (literally and figuratively). As I mentioned in an earlier blog "been there and done that."

Just struck me...Is there anything like this in say, Tennis, badminton?

I am having one of those where I don't know if I am spelling correctly so forgive me if there spelling errors that I can't pass off as typos.

dread is kind of a funny word- connoting either fear or awe...what would krishnamurti have to say about dread...a most enlightening discourse this weekend..

Don Coxe is big on agricultural equities...As an aside to this, link below is about a stomping ground of mind; it's loosing its shrimpers. Who would have thought that the likes of Whole Food is a very big importer of southeast asian frozen seafood. I'm pretty picky and the price and quality is amazingly competitive for shrimp, but in my opinion crab and crawfish quality is way below par of domestic product. Bottom line, it would be interesting to find companies who are using sea farming methods that meet criteria of price and quality. The middle class of the emerging countries have more protein in their diet and they are not going to turn back....a paraphrase of Coxe.

jasper-

speaking of domestic crab-

it's been two weeks since a chinese container ship (Cosco Busan) struck the Bay Bridge and spilled 58,000 gallons of fuel oil into San Francisco Bay, and crab harvesting suspended...however, two oregon fishing boats seen docked outside the golden gate somehow offloaded 100,000 pounds of dungeness last wednesday morning...wonder where they ended up:

http://tinyurl.com/2eqseh

re optimum sitting position

Tractor style seats that almost look like saddles are long favorites of those in pain. I have one and rock back forth in the 135 to 100 degree range. Keyboard is on a platform that rest close to belt line area. Legs are elevated and stretched out with foot stool. Screen at eye level. All these parameters are critical. My chair cost a lot, way over priced but I had to have it. BodyBilt is the mfg. A lot of other even more expensive chairs are crap. Always surprised how willing people are to abuse their bodies. The local guy who sells quality chairs is about the only place in the region where you can sit and sample. The owner tells me that employees of the big local 500 companies are too embarrassed to have a chair that looks expensive.

Perhaps an even better configuration would be a semi sitting to standing posture. The body almost likes it s standing in an athletic position and arms rest on something that looks like a tilted architect's table.

http://blog.nola.com/tpvideo/2007/11/shrimp_docks_dying_out_in_gran.html

Link re shrimpers going out of busines.

Thanks for the info on the "saddle."

2nd-ave...I don't know what that other fellow (K) would say but I have never heard a member in a foursome where one of the players hit a shank say anything like, "hey man that was an AWESOME shot" so in this case I think it is safe to assume that dread refers to fear.

Time to shovel snow...good day to all.

M word==Masochists then? I was afraid you meant "moron".

I ordered today "More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places"
Michael J. Mauboussin I saw it on Barry R's site. As I was reading the description, I was reminded of the eclectic discourse that we had here this weekend. It moved me to get it. E. O. Wilson wrote Consilience, The Unity of Knowledge which explores the conflation if you will of a number of seemingly disparate items: art, music, science, ethics.....

If one does odd subject reading, one finds that threads of this intertwine with threads of that. It's really a wonder. So it is from this perspective that I'll relish reading Mauboussin's book. I have this one lovely book called "The Tree of Gnosis"--the epilogue is wonderful, and is called Games People Play--religion meets game theory.

Golfer

"time to shovel snow..."

Yes, wife just came back in from doing that, guess I missed out, been playing with some charts. But I did take a time out to epoxy together a couple of things she wanted fixed.

Has anyone actually read "The Intelligent Investor" by Ben Graham. Does it read like a text book? In other words kind of dry.

stktrader
Buffet says that chapters 8 and 20 are the two most important essays written on the market.
chapter 8
The Investor and Market Fluctuations
chapter 20
"Margin of Safety" as the Central Concept on Investment.
Just read the title to those chapters and I think you can get a feel for the idea.
I have a feeling it's not that different from Bill Cara"s idea of have a top 100 companies and then buying at M-W-D under 30 RSI.

buy quality when the market doesn't want it. Buffet made a fortune buying America Express when the Salad Oil scandal sunk the stock..Bet it was rsi under 30 then..LOL

thanks to Leisa and others I spent some of the weekend listening to Rinpoche and Krishnamurti..
I had no idea youtube had all this type of info.
Thanks

Does anyone dare to say a number for S&P 500 after the Bear everyone says is coming ends?
Will it be 1000? Will it be 800? Will it be lower?

And how about Financials (XLF)? 25, 20, 15, 10? Who dare to say a number?

Thanks,

Anyone read this?

Buffett joins the batting for Northern Rock

By Sylvia Pfeifer and Iain Dey
Last Updated: 11:48pm GMT 24/11/2007
Warren Buffett, the legendary American investor, has emerged as a potential buyer of Northern Rock, the embattled high street bank.
http://tinyurl.com/3ay6hw

Don't be a Footsie neurotic
Last Updated: 11:47pm GMT 24/11/2007
Neuro-economics can help you understand your reactions - and get richer, says Jason Zweig
What goes on in your brain when markets are crashing? The new science of neuro-economics - a hybrid of neuro­ science, economics and psychology - has begun to shed light on that question. Within 12 milliseconds, or one-25th the time it takes you to blink your eye, upsetting financial news can activate the amygdala, a structure in your brain that generates emotions like fear and anger.

http://tinyurl.com/yrg4e7

UNG- Nymex Dec07 natlgas futures open trading for 11/25 up 2.6%...let's hope it carries over into at least pre-market trading on monday...

http://tinyurl.com/chcy4

Setting up moving averages:
Daily: 20, 50 and 200
Weekly: 40. Some use the 13 and 26.
Monthly: ?. Don't know.

Whether it is an EMA or a SMA as used by Investors Business Daily, does it really make a difference except in short term day trading where the EMA is usually applied.

I have been looking at the concept of trading big base bottoms where monthly charts are used. What are the ma's for that chart?

Hey Golfer,

Good luck ice fishing and I'm cheering for the Roughriders (sorry). Our lakes around Yellowknife are already frozen enough for skidooing. I'm getting my machines out from service this coming weekend. Can't wait.

Quasi
I should put my garden furniture away as well but I think I'll wait a while. They are under too much snow, hahaa...

Bill, what happened to your Leafs last night, couldn't score and couldn't win a fight!? Will I receive your book soon? I preordered.

Cheers

Buy Alert found

I was just running some symbols through Korvus' RSI tool. The system registered a buy alert on CRDN on 11/23, which I own as of recently.

Ticker Last RSI7d RSI7w RSI7m
CRDN 43.330 14.1 13.94 30.53

The RSI 7monthly briefly went below 30 before moving up again Friday. I'll be interested to see what happens. Management is holding a call to update investors on Tuesday. I hope to see a nice move up in anticipation tomorrow.

Just picked up Intelligent Investor this weekend (for $0.50, spine uncracked...) I have wanted to get this one up for awhile, but since it's so well-read I figured I would get it used someday (price tag is still on it for $44.95)

It does read a bit like a textbook, and it really has an old-school feel to it. I have only started and it seems well worth reading, especially if you want to understand Buffett's mentor & how to 'Value invest'. One thing I find funny is that Buffett really creates his own self-fulfilling prophecies with his companies. His name alone pumps markets.

Look at this chart since Black August... and tell me if you think Buffett enjoys volatility & fear in the markets, and if bears are good for value investors....

http://tinyurl.com/3xkmxo

This is really his market - P/E's under 10, people overselling sound companies with the bad ones, prices below "intrinsic value"

Interesting that my Chapter 8 is Bretton Woods - The "System" and Chapter 20 is Fibonacci Retracements... I must have a newer version.

If you would like a couple more thought-provoking and exciting books a bit closer to this decade, pick up The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb and Gold Trading Boot Camp by Gregory Weldon, two books recently recommended here.

Nassim's essay on how Black-Scholes-Merton didn't really invent anything new is worth a read too.

http://tinyurl.com/2np4tz

I think that guy's head is so big it's going to explode soon, but some of his stuff is hilarious (and scary at the same time). You won't find him trying to sugar-coat anything.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/

If you read one thing, check out his essay from last month.

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FT-Nobel.pdf

"The environment in financial economics is reminiscent of medieval medicine, which refused to incorporate the observations and experiences of the plebeian barbers and surgeons. Medicine used to kill more patients than it saved just as financial economics endangers the system by creating, not reducing, risk."

Scary to think that billion-dollar financial decisions rest on flawed statistics and indicators, and that risk management today is really just an emotional comfort shelter that will get blown away in a hurricane like the one in August.

That's probably why relative strength works so well... it's the simple concept of buying low & selling high, without the fallacy of buy & hold, and it is really an indicator of emotion in the markets.

Rugger09

Ya I did that one year, left the garden furniture out just a little too long, frozen in the ground. Thought I would get a warm day to put it away but never happened, stayed there till spring.

Yes Sask just took it, my home town team, I was born in Regina.

Did anyone post this? This video chart-matching of patterns to 1929/1987/2007 is crazy.

http://tinyurl.com/3eyj7p

stktrader November 25, 2007 7:58 PM

RE SMA, EMA and # periods ??

Good question, yes for the long term stuff I use SMA and as for periods I usually experiment. When I find some stocks of interest in a scan then I play around with the history of the stock and see what fits for that stock. Every stock seems to have slightly different characteristics so I just find the time frame that fits for historical support / resistance.

More on Berkshire... add a compare to GLD for some interesting results...

http://tinyurl.com/2ud38d

At these levels, what does everyone think about a slight Berkshire correction, and therefore an uptrend in the markets? My guess is it's up and away for awhile yet... lots of green skies overseas tonight.

http://tinyurl.com/39elg6

Hey, does anyone know a free source for GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard - the S&P version) or ICB (Industry Classification Benchmark - the Dow Jones version) data? Either somewhere with a list of stocks in the major industries or a way to tell what major industry a stock is in?

Now that I have this huge database of stock data, I'm looking to see if I can pull patterns out of it to demonstrate Bill's idealized market cycle where we see interest-rate sensitive sectors leading most major advances or declines, followed by the consumer sectors, followed by the commodity price and forex sensitive sectors. I tried doing it for the Cara100 (since Bill provides the GICS sectors for those), but too many stocks get thrown out due to insufficient historical data. I think I see the pattern, but I can only see one major market shift (circa 2001) and that's a pretty lame sample. I could look back, but I'd have to throw out more companies, and I already have too few for my tastes.

If I could look up what sector a stock is in, I could draw from the 2200 or so that people have looked up on my RSI site, of which I assume maybe half are US companies that I can get some data on, and probably at least a couple hundred that I can get long-term data on.

So, any suggestions? I could mine Google Finance (and probably Yahoo Finance), but it would take a lot of work....

Korvus....I use Fidelity. It has the S&P Compustat that lists the Industry, Sector and Subsector that a stock is in that I'm researching. When I want to create an industry group, I use this listing. You can get the GICS list from S&P website. It's a downloadable excel file. You can also do an Edgar search and find companies under SIC codes. You might have to do a little finagling, though to get that. NYSE website also allows you to do stock symbol digging by industry for listed companies.

Korvus,

I'm really interested in the work you're doing. Do you think you could provide a daily archive of stocks in buy/sell zones? A backtester?

Here's the GICS data you're probably looking for.

http://www.cob.ohio-state.edu/fin/faculty/spellman/GICS.xls

I got this by typing gics sectors ticker filetype:xls in Google.

Leisa,

Finally, a use for my Fidelity account with a $0.33 balance! ;) It looks like they have the information I want, but not in a way that's easy for me to access. Edgar and the NYSE sites have some potential (at least I don't have to figure out how to make my script log in), but I sure wish I could just grab a CSV/Excel file.

wavesmash,

Clever search, thanks! In the end I would like the GICS/ICB codes for more stocks than just the S&P 500, but that's 5x more tickers than I tried last time, so I'll give it a shot.

I have a lot of ideas on my plate right now, with some sort of backtesting being one of them (wouldn't it be great if it could tell you the average 1-week, 1-month, and 1-year returns for that stock after a buy or sell signal?). Unfortunately, as long as I have another job sucking 40 hours of my life away every week, I can only get to a few things at a time. I'll try to keep that one in mind, however.

Gold Trading Bootcamp- I've mentioned it a couple of times here. I've read it twice now and will probably revisit it again. I have numerous pages marked to come back to for a deeper look.

My quick two cents: A very interesting book, a good read while conveying some very useful information and ways to think about the market. Weldon is a very astute observer of the market. In particular, his powers of intermaket analysis observations are incredible.

It is, however, a very deeply flawed book. The flaws generated reactions in me varying from mild irritation to being severely pissed off. Chapter 34, in particular, I found infuriating. To the point that I would like to say to him directly, "What the heck were you thinking putting this crap in this book? (and by extension, making me pay for this junk?" But being over 6'6", I think, and a huge guy he'd probably kick my butt.

There are also some topics he skims over to a laughable degree. But he makes no secret of it.

On the other hand....(as Bill used to say) I found about half of it EXTREMELY illuminating. As I said, I've read it twice and it won't be long before I read it again.

Wavesmash, I look forward to your thoughts on this book.

I'm taking a small break from finance/trading books to finally read "A Walk in the Woods" But next up after that, most likely, is Murphy's "Intermarket Analysis" depending on how fast it gets here from Amazon.

The path from Weldon's book to this one is direct and obvious.

Bill said;

"As I say, I don’t have much feel for the copper market. This seems to be a market run by the Metal Men of Hug."

I know you meant Zug, as in Zug Switzerland, but I had to laugh...I think the last thing they want to give us is hugs...

One thing I noticed, after using the RSI tool, is that days like Friday can generate buy signals that don't seem to make sense.

It seems that RSI-7 alone cannot be the answer in a volatile market. It seems to generate more reliable signals in markets that trend.

There are some buy signals generated on stuff I would not want to own right now.

Or maybe I just don't know what the heck I'm talking about.

Here is an article on PBR's Tupi oil field find, since PBR is a Cara 100 it may be interesting to the group.

The link: http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3269#more

MikeNYC:

I think you do know what you are talking about if you just listen to what you are saying.

Any buy and/or sell SIGNAL is just that ...a signal. It is not a signal to actually buy or sell
a stock it is a signal that it is a good time time to buy that stock IF all of your other research has convinced you that THE COMPANY is one that you want a piece of. That is why you say
"There are some buy signals generated on stuff I would not want to own right now."