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November 24, 2007

Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 11/24/2007 10:10 AM ET

Citigroup (C) was removed from the list of Cara 100 Global Best companies this week. My thoughts on Citi are not much different than the Value Line analyst Douglas Maurer (see link below) who lowered his Safety rating on Friday and his Timeliness and Technical ratings the previous Friday.

This chart shows a broken company.

(C: StockChart chart)

For seven sessions following Oct 31, C traded about 1 billion shares and the price dropped from 41.36 plus the $0.54 dividend to a low of $31.05 on Nov 8. In other words, that was a loss of over $50 billion. The largest financial services company in the world plunged in an environment the equivalent of Black Monday October 1987.

Missing from Financial Entertainment TV this month were a line of honest financial advisors telling you what was happening to Citi and others. The Talking Heads were even saying that the selling was over-blown!

Do you recall, two weeks ago, my stating that Exxon (XOM) had dropped $50 billion in market cap in the space of just over a week and nobody was commenting? The difference is that with XOM, traders knew the company is financially rock solid, but were recognizing a broad market shift from Bull to Bear. However, with Citigroup, it’s a case of just doubting the financial strength of the world’s biggest financial company, which is far more serious.

In order to retain its place in the Cara list of 100 Global Best companies, I have to be satisfied that each company is financially strong, or at least stable during the rough patches. Since November 1, I have serious doubts with Citi, and I now believe there is a strong possibility the company needs to be restructured.

I did retain Citi on the Cara list of 100 USA Best companies this week, with the expectation of such a restructuring, but I will remove it if, as and when other rating agencies lower their ratings on Citi debt to less than A-, which is likely coming this week should an emergency plan not be successfully implemented.

In any case, I think nervous holders should dump the stock into any rally.

You may disagree, but if you look over the capital that has been lost from various international markets since the peak in October, you cannot deny there has been significant wealth destruction.

The Tokyo Nikkei 225 Average has plunged from a peak of 17489 on Oct 11 to Friday’s close at 14,889, a loss of -14.87 pct. It’s tough when you lose it because getting those 2600 Nikkei points back will take a gain of +17.46 pct. It is always harder to make it than lose it.

Tokyo Nikkei 225 chart


This month alone, to Friday’s close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has dropped -16.2 pct from 6005 to 5032. Making those 573 Shanghai points back will take a gain of +19.34 pct.

Shanghai Composite chart


Can these gains be made back? There is always hope. Look at the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index for example. From the November high on Nov 1 at 31,897 to Thursday’s close Nov 22 at 26,005, there was a loss of -18.47 pct. But the +536 point gain on Friday represented a +2.06 pct over Thursday.

Hang Seng Index chart


Do I think you should be talking about these current losses? Yes. In spite of the speculative froth that I wrote about at the top in mid to late October, these are real losses to real people, many of whom are not even aware of it partly because the positions are held in their pension, hedge and mutual funds, and partly because they are just not watching the market at all.

The people winning at this game are the proprietary traders employed by HB&B. Like thieves in the night, traders at HB&B are quietly making billions while they know that Mom & Pop are mostly oblivious to what’s presently happening, and too many Fund managers are hoping beyond hope for another profitable quarter on the long side so they too can get theirs.

These tables show a sea of red ink. Yes, I did call for Friday’s rally, which occurred, but I also opined that this would be a good time to sell into whatever strength the Bull can muster before passing away.



Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLE 74.05 1.90 2.63% 4.59% -2.37% -2.48% 30.88% 9.38% 9.06% 28.43%
XLU 41.92 -0.04 -0.10% 0.60% -0.80% 2.29% 13.85% 6.34% -0.52% 16.25%
XLP 28.54 0.29 1.03% 0.35% 1.39% 1.39% 8.60% 6.18% 3.97% 10.49%
IYH 70.15 0.82 1.18% -0.55% 0.29% -1.60% 5.55% 2.96% -3.12% 6.43%
XLY 33.55 0.58 1.76% -1.44% -3.31% -7.14% -12.90% -7.91% -15.77% -12.06%
XLI 38.17 0.50 1.33% -1.62% -3.88% -5.21% 8.35% -1.78% -1.06% 7.40%
XLB 39.52 0.58 1.49% -1.94% -6.79% -7.01% 14.19% 2.65% -1.76% 12.75%
SMH 31.79 0.36 1.15% -2.78% -3.81% -6.09% -5.30% -14.61% -13.19% -10.50%
IYZ 28.50 0.28 0.99% -3.16% -6.37% -11.35% -3.91% -13.16% -15.93% 0.64%
XLF 29.27 0.68 2.38% -4.63% -3.62% -10.49% -20.72% -15.04% -22.69% -19.17%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
STO 32.33 0.84 2.67% 6.03% -5.55% -3.84% 25.85% 17.14% 14.16% 21.31%
XOM 88.29 1.25 1.44% 4.50% -1.26% -3.58% 19.13% 5.42% 6.39% 21.09%
TOT 81.45 0.59 0.73% 4.44% -2.92% 4.46% 14.77% 12.38% 7.21% 15.52%
CEO 173.70 14.70 9.25% 4.36% -2.77% -9.96% 84.26% 51.04% 84.34% 100.53%
CVX 86.67 0.92 1.07% 2.98% -2.81% -5.00% 22.12% 1.39% 6.47% 24.53%
SU 102.35 1.45 1.44% 2.59% -8.07% -3.58% 38.48% 19.36% 16.24% 34.14%
IMO 52.95 0.85 1.63% 1.34% -8.60% 5.02% 48.49% 24.88% 13.07% 44.67%
PBR 100.78 1.74 1.76% 1.00% -13.69% 14.81% 102.25% 75.67% 84.54% 121.06%
ECA 67.93 0.48 0.71% 0.85% -7.21% 2.01% 49.82% 15.63% 10.38% 33.46%


Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
NUE 53.23 1.21 2.33% 4.41% -5.87% -14.52% -2.33% 3.30% -17.80% -10.31%
MT 71.45 1.71 2.45% 2.73% -6.87% -9.49% 75.12% 19.88% 21.99% 69.27%
RTP 436.05 30.32 7.47% -1.11% -0.94% 24.05% 113.65% 66.69% 51.27% 107.95%
BHP 72.82 2.97 4.25% -1.73% -5.24% -11.63% 87.34% 19.46% 40.69% 77.35%
PKX 153.48 3.97 2.66% -2.00% -5.15% -12.19% 93.23% 11.14% 33.02% 99.69%
TS 45.94 -0.36 -0.78% -2.21% -3.75% -10.74% -5.32% -1.71% -3.22% 0.00%
AA 35.15 -0.02 -0.06% -3.25% -6.66% -8.44% 19.84% -1.73% -12.93% 15.51%
RIO 32.56 0.13 0.40% -5.62% -11.90% -2.78% 12.98% -27.68% -25.90% 20.68%
GGB 26.88 -0.29 -1.07% -7.21% -10.07% -7.79% 63.70% 18.99% 23.08% 72.64%
TCK 37.84 0.30 0.80% -9.63% -19.44% -22.92% -45.36% -10.31% -5.57% -48.94%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MMM 82.75 1.51 1.86% 3.89% -0.10% -3.88% 5.74% -6.76% -5.90% 1.57%
UTX 73.46 0.68 0.93% -0.66% -1.66% -2.98% 16.96% 0.22% 6.70% 11.66%
CAT 68.63 0.69 1.02% -1.58% -5.25% -8.09% 12.21% -8.70% -9.73% 9.30%
GE 37.67 0.50 1.35% -1.67% -3.46% -6.20% -0.79% -3.71% 0.19% 4.67%
BA 89.54 2.13 2.44% -1.97% -7.00% -6.73% 0.41% -7.44% -6.31% -0.62%
ABB 27.15 0.31 1.15% -2.16% -11.79% -6.51% 52.36% 17.79% 27.82% 67.59%
HON 54.67 0.76 1.41% -4.36% -7.79% -7.54% 21.22% -2.15% -3.31% 27.11%
FDX 93.60 1.89 2.06% -7.66% -8.63% -9.39% -14.73% -15.15% -11.75% -21.10%
ERJ 44.25 -0.25 -0.56% -7.74% -5.53% -7.81% 8.51% 7.74% -5.17% 4.76%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
NKE 63.75 0.87 1.38% 1.11% 0.71% -0.14% 30.55% 17.99% 16.29% 31.42%
EBAY 31.94 0.35 1.11% -0.59% -1.42% -9.39% 5.87% -6.61% -2.86% -5.70%
WHR 77.88 1.85 2.43% -0.60% 5.44% -7.23% -8.01% -19.68% -30.79% -9.46%
TM 109.40 1.32 1.22% -0.98% 0.38% 3.45% -19.14% -5.13% -9.12% -8.60%
DIS 31.84 0.34 1.08% -1.73% -5.32% -7.58% -6.90% -3.98% -12.72% -3.49%
SBUX 23.07 0.26 1.14% -4.27% -1.41% -11.85% -34.55% -16.17% -20.15% -36.59%
CCL 42.73 0.39 0.92% -4.41% -4.60% -9.91% -16.13% -5.34% -14.08% -15.52%
JCP 41.30 1.23 3.07% -6.84% -17.84% -25.36% -47.09% -36.02% -47.58% -49.14%
BC 19.26 0.33 1.74% -9.19% -10.13% -4.65% -39.66% -23.96% -44.21% -41.78%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
PEP 75.51 0.47 0.63% 2.62% 2.73% 4.90% 20.39% 11.19% 9.93% 20.74%
PG 72.86 0.60 0.83% 1.43% 2.85% 2.12% 12.89% 12.02% 15.47% 14.49%
MO 72.97 0.56 0.77% 0.97% 0.34% 0.98% 12.40% 6.32% 2.21% 15.59%
BUD 50.19 0.95 1.93% 0.76% -0.57% -3.98% 1.97% 4.56% -2.26% 7.89%
KO 62.30 0.05 0.08% 0.56% 1.35% 1.63% 28.24% 15.41% 21.37% 32.27%
DEO 89.32 1.33 1.51% 0.44% -2.24% -1.24% 12.31% 9.23% 4.60% 17.05%
WAG 39.73 0.33 0.84% 0.35% 1.79% -0.63% -13.76% -11.34% -11.10% -3.19%
WMT 45.73 0.87 1.94% -1.02% 4.84% 4.22% -3.83% 5.93% -1.30% -4.79%
ABV 69.09 0.71 1.04% -6.03% -8.79% -10.68% 40.71% 6.82% 3.57% 48.84%
WFMI 40.75 -0.68 -1.64% -11.03% -11.24% -14.41% -10.40% -5.98% 0.94% -17.41%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
NVS 55.98 3.49 6.65% 6.04% 6.28% 8.32% -3.72% 6.51% 0.23% -4.55%
GSK 50.79 2.92 6.10% 3.06% -0.22% 0.08% -5.61% -1.53% -4.74% -1.47%
UNH 54.07 0.66 1.24% 1.98% 7.52% 11.42% 2.85% 11.21% 0.26% 16.13%
BMY 28.08 0.62 2.26% 1.19% -2.26% -4.36% 6.44% -3.17% -6.40% 13.55%
DNA 74.82 0.66 0.89% 0.39% -0.70% 0.19% -8.53% 2.05% -3.66% -7.48%
BMET 45.99 0.06 0.13% 0.24% 0.31% 0.48% 10.90% 1.05% 8.47% 41.68%
JNJ 66.88 -0.26 -0.39% 0.00% 3.55% 4.58% 0.72% 7.68% 4.81% 0.16%
AET 54.14 0.34 0.63% -1.29% -0.88% -3.30% 26.26% 9.57% 4.32% 31.06%
PFE 22.98 0.63 2.82% -1.33% -0.56% -5.39% -12.59% -6.66% -15.95% -15.20%
AMGN 53.76 0.92 1.74% -1.88% -4.05% -6.19% -21.40% 6.99% -1.79% -26.03%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
DB 124.35 2.45 2.01% 1.07% -0.02% 0.04% -8.12% 0.33% -21.17% -6.17%
HBC 84.74 2.12 2.57% -2.90% -5.83% -8.49% -8.85% -5.99% -8.61% -10.21%
LEH 60.86 3.11 5.39% -3.35% 8.47% 6.92% -22.60% 4.61% -17.91% -21.75%
JPM 41.95 1.27 3.12% -3.63% -1.55% -8.90% -12.73% -8.15% -19.31% -11.85%
GS 216.48 6.98 3.33% -4.64% 3.12% -4.49% 7.85% 21.96% -5.28% 7.01%
CS 57.17 0.58 1.02% -5.11% -6.23% -11.23% -18.46% -13.64% -24.46% -13.76%
UBS 45.24 1.56 3.57% -5.26% -3.89% -14.56% -26.31% -13.83% -29.33% -26.37%
MS 49.89 1.38 2.84% -6.35% -7.06% -19.53% -38.88% -22.42% -41.82% -37.01%
MER 53.54 1.73 3.34% -6.56% -0.46% -12.09% -42.81% -29.45% -42.93% -41.95%
C 31.70 0.97 3.16% -8.33% -3.65% -23.11% -42.62% -34.44% -42.37% -37.56%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ADBE 41.91 0.07 0.17% 2.67% -6.93% -11.21% 4.98% 3.23% -3.05% 0.24%
SAP 51.60 0.12 0.23% 1.90% -1.55% -3.30% -3.01% -1.30% 8.02% -2.18%
ORCL 20.31 0.10 0.49% -0.54% -0.20% -3.29% 15.99% 4.85% 6.00% 3.36%
QCOM 40.53 0.07 0.17% -0.69% 1.94% -0.64% 8.20% 7.05% -9.61% 8.51%
INTC 25.07 0.44 1.79% -1.80% -3.32% -3.17% 23.19% 3.47% 10.59% 15.37%
CTSH 30.46 0.35 1.16% -2.03% -3.52% -22.30% -21.66% -18.29% -20.01% -24.10%
CSCO 28.69 0.44 1.56% -2.08% -3.17% -7.99% 3.42% -5.22% 10.47% 6.61%
SNDK 36.11 -0.08 -0.22% -3.11% -7.53% -10.00% -13.45% -32.02% -16.41% -24.01%
ADSK 45.79 0.56 1.24% -3.52% -3.32% -3.09% 12.89% 1.67% 0.62% 10.50%
INFY 39.10 0.44 1.14% -5.19% -7.74% -19.51% -29.95% -14.98% -20.91% -27.77%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
3 Month 3.10 2.97 3.29 3.68
6 Month 3.23 3.16 3.42 3.82
2 Year 3.07 2.99 3.33 3.73
3 Year 3.01 2.89 3.24 3.73
5 Year 3.41 3.34 3.69 3.98
10 Year 4.00 4.01 4.16 4.34
30 Year 4.42 4.46 4.53 4.64
Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 3.22 3.23 3.30 3.34
2yr AAA 3.31 3.27 3.29 3.35
2yr A 3.43 3.39 3.42 3.37
5yr AAA 3.53 3.38 3.43 3.44
5yr AA 3.45 3.31 3.46 3.40
5yr A 3.64 3.49 3.53 3.60
10yr AAA 3.76 3.80 3.82 3.76
10yr AA 3.82 3.68 3.77 3.68
10yr A 3.99 4.02 4.05 3.89
20yr AAA 4.23 4.44 4.48 4.38
20yr AA 4.79 4.59 4.67 4.57
20yr A 4.77 4.78 5.13 4.39
Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month
2yr AA 4.37 4.15 4.38 4.51
2yr A 4.49 4.28 4.59 4.68
5yr AAA 4.54 4.53 4.69 4.76
5yr AA 4.78 4.72 4.99 4.96
5yr A 4.63 4.55 4.83 4.93
10yr AAA 5.24 5.13 5.21 5.27
10yr AA 5.46 5.54 5.66 5.59
10yr A 5.66 5.54 5.68 5.57
20yr AAA 5.72 5.54 5.58 5.65
20yr AA 5.91 5.73 5.79 5.83
20yr A 6.17 6.00 6.04 5.99


Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TIP 106.69 -0.07 -0.07% 1.70% 2.15% 3.14% 7.52% 6.00% 7.20% 6.53%
TLT 93.73 0.28 0.30% 1.57% 3.50% 3.33% 5.