Bill Cara: Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 11/10/2007 6:36 AM ET

« Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Nov. 9, 2007, 7:47am ET | Main | Week in Review #45 (2007-11-10) »

November 10, 2007

Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 11/10/2007 6:36 AM ET

The headlines say it all. Read all about it. Trader sentiment has changed.

Battered Stocks Bloodied Again
Fourth Straight Day for the Bears
Tech, Financial Woes Continue
Import Prices Stoke Inflation Fears
Turbulent Trading Extended
Stocks Pare Losses, Tech Swoons
Fuel Prices Up On Oil's Tail May Strain US Economy
Some Traders See Silver Lining In Financials (Operative word being “some”)
Survey Finds Nest-Egg Confidence Crisis
E*Trade Down, Expects Large Writedowns
Small Stocks Down; Tech, Financials Take Another Hit

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

XLU 41.93 -0.33 -0.78% 0.02% 0.94% 1.30% 13.88% 5.62% -1.18% 17.65%

XLP 27.88 -0.27 -0.96% -0.46% -1.62% -1.41% 6.09% 2.31% 2.12% 9.16%

IYH 69.73 -0.22 -0.31% -1.37% -2.22% -3.57% 4.92% 2.98% -3.82% 8.44%

XLE 74.45 -1.40 -1.85% -1.55% -3.25% -3.52% 31.58% 10.53% 14.89% 28.36%

XLB 41.53 -0.87 -2.05% -2.58% -3.89% -4.18% 19.99% 6.08% 3.51% 22.04%

XLI 38.92 -0.79 -1.99% -3.11% -3.42% -5.69% 10.47% -0.15% 1.99% 12.98%

SMH 32.94 -0.11 -0.33% -3.82% -2.52% -9.36% -1.88% -12.39% -13.54% -0.78%

XLY 33.91 -0.79 -2.28% -4.99% -6.94% -10.72% -11.97% -7.15% -14.30% -8.87%

XLF 30.14 -0.23 -0.76% -5.40% -10.54% -15.07% -18.36% -10.03% -20.45% -15.05%

IYZ 29.28 -1.16 -3.81% -7.34% -9.66% -13.50% -1.28% -8.59% -11.35% 2.92%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

PBR 107.76 -9.01 -7.72% 15.50% 17.67% 28.16% 116.26% 74.06% 112.04% 133.60%

TOT 82.67 -1.23 -1.47% 4.35% 2.77% 4.65% 16.49% 12.02% 10.37% 15.93%

IMO 55.84 -2.09 -3.61% 1.49% 7.80% 14.40% 56.59% 31.70% 40.76% 47.53%

SU 108.64 -2.69 -2.42% 0.09% 2.03% 9.64% 46.99% 21.22% 30.00% 34.42%

STO 33.37 -0.86 -2.51% -0.18% -2.28% -1.33% 29.89% 20.69% 16.64% 22.46%

XOM 86.85 -2.57 -2.87% -1.23% -5.81% -7.09% 17.19% 3.89% 6.67% 16.41%

ECA 71.55 -1.66 -2.27% -1.28% 6.84% 10.20% 57.81% 20.54% 26.91% 40.87%

CVX 87.26 -1.92 -2.15% -1.38% -4.79% -4.54% 22.95% 7.58% 9.42% 24.30%

CEO 176.00 -2.65 -1.48% -14.98% -11.02% -1.15% 86.70% 56.19% 97.98% 103.19%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

RTP 478.35 38.15 8.67% 29.03% 29.99% 28.45% 134.37% 86.71% 61.46% 110.86%

RIO 35.70 -1.26 -3.41% -1.87% 0.56% -0.61% 23.87% -23.85% -20.15% 30.05%

TCK 47.34 0.37 0.79% -2.47% -4.63% -10.02% -31.64% 17.32% -43.01% -38.85%

MT 73.01 -3.71 -4.84% -3.58% -10.49% -6.89% 78.95% 22.03% 27.31% 73.63%

GGB 29.03 -0.86 -2.88% -3.62% -4.41% -3.23% 76.80% 18.54% 38.11% 88.02%

AA 37.09 -0.57 -1.51% -3.81% -5.74% -2.73% 26.46% 4.66% -4.23% 27.85%

NUE 54.79 -1.76 -3.11% -5.39% -13.61% -2.53% 0.53% 4.16% -16.98% -8.85%

PKX 156.07 -5.74 -3.55% -6.21% -15.72% -16.20% 96.49% 13.89% 36.96% 112.37%

TS 46.65 -1.08 -2.26% -9.44% -13.74% -12.34% -3.85% -4.48% 4.57% 5.35%

BHP 75.81 -1.04 -1.35% -9.46% -12.01% -10.55% 95.03% 25.10% 41.94% 76.43%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

FDX 99.74 -2.70 -2.64% -2.63% -4.04% -7.23% -9.14% -8.91% -8.11% -12.11%

HON 57.76 -1.53 -2.58% -2.68% -2.83% -6.40% 28.07% 1.73% 1.67% 36.87%

ABB 29.94 -0.84 -2.73% -2.70% 0.91% 7.43% 68.01% 29.55% 50.98% 94.80%

UTX 73.51 -1.19 -1.59% -2.83% -2.56% -8.48% 17.04% 1.58% 6.89% 13.25%

ERJ 46.29 -0.55 -1.17% -3.32% -3.46% -5.90% 13.51% -5.61% -2.32% 10.50%

BA 94.21 -2.07 -2.15% -3.63% -1.89% -2.56% 5.65% -4.16% 0.14% 10.69%

GE 38.38 -0.64 -1.64% -4.84% -4.95% -6.46% 1.08% -1.44% 3.01% 8.76%

CAT 70.41 -2.02 -2.79% -5.82% -6.17% -12.32% 15.12% -10.28% -5.81% 18.94%

MMM 79.51 -3.32 -4.01% -6.34% -7.69% -15.57% 1.60% -8.46% -6.85% 0.77%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

NKE 62.21 -1.09 -1.72% -2.60% -3.71% -1.49% 27.40% 15.42% 15.37% 34.13%

DIS 32.74 -0.89 -2.65% -3.48% -4.77% -7.70% -4.27% -0.79% -9.36% -2.50%

BC 21.28 -0.15 -0.70% -3.84% -2.65% -4.83% -33.33% -17.52% -36.53% -31.22%

EBAY 33.46 1.06 3.27% -4.45% -8.68% -16.14% 10.90% -8.55% -4.37% 3.59%

TM 107.86 -1.13 -1.04% -4.55% -1.70% -4.24% -20.28% -9.96% -9.57% -11.87%

WHR 75.44 1.58 2.14% -4.66% -9.73% -15.49% -10.89% -22.05% -33.82% -14.76%

CCL 43.89 -0.90 -2.01% -4.79% -7.93% -12.62% -13.86% -7.41% -8.92% -8.89%

SBUX 22.57 -0.83 -3.55% -11.59% -13.76% -14.31% -35.97% -19.54% -24.87% -38.87%

JCP 46.89 -3.38 -6.72% -12.01% -16.28% -24.72% -39.93% -28.19% -40.05% -41.06%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

UNH 51.67 1.38 2.74% 5.58% 7.67% 3.98% -1.71% 11.53% -2.67% 14.14%

JNJ 65.16 0.57 0.88% 0.59% 1.34% -1.18% -1.87% 7.12% 1.64% -1.50%

AET 54.62 0.00 0.00% 0.44% -2.25% 2.79% 27.38% 16.34% 8.87% 39.80%

DNA 75.09 -0.26 -0.35% 0.35% 1.28% -2.80% -8.20% 2.22% -6.80% -7.70%

BMET 45.99 0.06 0.13% 0.24% 0.31% 0.48% 10.90% 1.05% 8.47% 41.68%

NVS 52.10 -0.57 -1.08% -0.97% -0.08% -2.65% -10.39% -5.12% -10.36% -12.08%

BMY 28.29 -0.44 -1.53% -2.04% -4.91% -4.97% 7.24% 0.39% -6.48% 15.09%

GSK 49.72 -1.18 -2.32% -2.16% -1.58% -4.79% -7.60% -5.20% -13.36% -3.46%

PFE 22.83 -0.28 -1.21% -3.55% -6.09% -9.62% -13.16% -5.43% -15.94% -11.65%

AMGN 54.28 -1.75 -3.12% -4.13% -5.07% -6.69% -20.64% 6.45% -13.98% -26.18%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

JPM 42.31 -0.30 -0.70% -1.95% -10.59% -9.63% -11.98% -4.21% -20.47% -10.44%

LEH 58.07 1.96 3.49% -3.41% -3.89% -10.15% -26.15% -3.46% -24.19% -18.66%

DB 121.80 -2.57 -2.07% -3.75% -4.13% -7.31% -10.00% -8.73% -23.00% -3.16%

CS 59.55 -1.42 -2.33% -5.49% -9.98% -13.55% -15.06% -13.32% -22.28% -7.46%

MER 53.27 -0.52 -0.97% -7.00% -19.40% -29.15% -43.09% -28.67% -42.42% -39.11%

HBC 87.93 -2.06 -2.29% -7.18% -8.26% -9.23% -5.42% -3.72% -6.68% -9.71%

UBS 45.69 -1.38 -2.93% -7.27% -15.12% -20.26% -25.57% -17.36% -27.75% -24.64%

GS 211.33 1.39 0.66% -7.96% -10.42% -9.52% 5.29% 15.96% -6.73% 14.37%

MS 54.20 0.52 0.97% -7.98% -16.33% -19.41% -33.59% -12.31% -37.01% -27.59%

C 33.10 0.20 0.61% -12.27% -22.36% -30.85% -40.09% -29.42% -38.84% -34.60%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SAP 51.55 -0.86 -1.64% -3.19% -4.00% -7.70% -3.10% -5.43% 7.91% 1.38%

ADSK 46.16 -1.20 -2.53% -5.43% -3.13% -9.13% 13.81% 5.80% 7.52% 32.87%

INTC 25.15 -0.78 -3.01% -6.16% -3.05% -1.57% 23.59% 5.14% 11.93% 23.16%

QCOM 38.10 -1.66 -4.18% -7.84% -7.82% -9.63% 1.71% -0.31% -13.94% 9.39%

ADBE 43.24 -1.79 -3.98% -9.69% -8.00% -6.24% 8.32% 6.11% 4.80% 8.94%

CSCO 28.58 -1.05 -3.54% -12.09% -10.41% -13.18% 3.03% -8.98% 7.81% 6.96%

ORCL 19.36 -0.99 -4.86% -12.12% -9.32% -13.73% 10.57% -3.63% 2.81% 4.42%

SNDK 38.95 -0.10 -0.26% -12.33% -5.05% -17.83% -6.64% -31.01% -13.50% -15.56%

INFY 42.01 -0.37 -0.87% -17.01% -14.65% -18.73% -24.74% -14.79% -19.26% -21.64%

CTSH 30.79 -0.78 -2.47% -24.72% -22.91% -24.76% -20.81% -27.66% -22.74% -18.91%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 3.13 3.28 3.45 3.90

6 Month 3.49 3.54 3.61 4.08

2 Year 3.40 3.46 3.68 4.14

3 Year 3.36 3.41 3.65 4.16

5 Year 3.75 3.81 3.95 4.36

10 Year 4.22 4.28 4.32 4.65

30 Year 4.60 4.66 4.61 4.86

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.32 3.33 3.29 3.46

2yr AAA 3.31 3.32 3.30 3.45

2yr A 3.42 3.34 3.32 3.45

5yr AAA 3.43 3.46 3.42 3.53

5yr AA 3.39 3.45 3.42 3.52

5yr A 3.53 3.57 3.53 3.76

10yr AAA 3.85 3.88 3.79 3.81

10yr AA 3.89 3.91 3.69 3.74

10yr A 4.08 4.11 4.02 3.94

20yr AAA 4.47 4.46 4.39 4.44

20yr AA 4.67 4.66 4.58 4.64

20yr A 5.07 4.47 4.39 4.45

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 4.33 4.43 4.54 4.82

2yr A 4.49 4.64 4.71 4.96

5yr AAA 4.57 4.67 4.72 4.81

5yr AA 4.99 5.11 5.01 5.17

5yr A 4.90 5.00 5.00 5.29

10yr AAA 5.27 5.26 5.17 5.45

10yr AA 5.73 5.70 5.60 5.65

10yr A 5.79 5.88 5.79 5.75

20yr AAA 5.63 5.66 5.02 5.80

20yr AA 5.89 5.95 5.86 6.03

20yr A 6.05 6.12 6.05 6.13

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TIP 105.35 0.91 0.87% 1.31% 1.94% 4.41% 6.17% 5.77% 4.87% 4.72%

IEF 85.85 0.51 0.60% 0.89% 1.14% 3.37% 3.83% 4.45% 3.71% 3.53%

SHY 81.74 0.03 0.04% 0.45% 0.31% 1.14% 2.12% 1.62% 2.06% 2.10%

TLT 91.33 0.77 0.85% 0.32% 0.92% 4.22% 2.54% 5.85% 3.44% 2.04%

AGG 100.80 0.35 0.35% 0.25% 0.04% 1.36% 0.89% 2.36% 0.86% 0.70%

CFC 13.83 0.36 2.67% -3.62% -20.06% -26.20% -67.16% -51.74% -66.46% -64.37%

FNM 49.00 -0.80 -1.61% -6.86% -18.37% -25.80% -18.14% -25.68% -22.01% -19.71%

FRE 41.70 -2.12 -4.84% -13.72% -20.86% -31.22% -38.58% -32.38% -38.17% -40.44%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

GFI 19.13 0.20 1.06% 7.71% 5.40% 1.76% 4.36% 27.19% 7.47% 3.13%

NEM 54.04 -0.02 -0.04% 4.71% 13.60% 13.60% 22.26% 30.47% 29.90% 15.35%

BVN 60.04 -0.96 -1.57% 3.95% 13.63% 12.92% 117.46% 52.73% 71.79% 116.44%

ABX 45.44 -0.77 -1.67% -0.39% 5.55% 7.47% 52.33% 34.56% 46.91% 51.26%

GG 34.76 -1.06 -2.96% -2.69% 4.04% 6.86% 27.14% 39.49% 42.81% 21.24%

MDG 38.19 -0.78 -2.00% -6.69% -3.14% 3.02% 45.26% 41.39% 46.88% 37.03%

AUY 13.90 -0.30 -2.11% -7.21% -3.61% 2.06% 12.73% 27.29% -1.63% 16.90%

AEM 53.19 -1.89 -3.43% -7.33% -3.11% -2.72% 36.66% 20.48% 48.20% 33.11%

KGC 18.77 -0.26 -1.37% -7.95% 2.01% 14.66% 64.36% 47.45% 38.32% 50.64%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

EWZ 83.26 -2.89 -3.35% 0.19% 1.04% 4.57% 78.29% 36.72% 48.47% 92.11%

IEV 118.90 -2.80 -2.30% -2.87% -3.29% -2.81% 12.59% 6.02% 2.39% 16.26%

SPY 145.14 -2.02 -1.37% -4.04% -5.52% -7.17% 2.67% -0.17% -3.98% 5.04%

EWC 34.24 -0.76 -2.17% -4.65% -0.87% 0.03% 38.62% 16.90% 19.34% 34.49%

EWU 25.51 -0.64 -2.45% -4.92% -4.85% -4.42% 8.32% 3.20% 0.51% 9.72%

TRF 69.13 -0.86 -1.23% -5.08% -4.65% -2.61% -21.93% 7.46% 0.44% -1.10%

EWJ 13.40 -0.18 -1.33% -5.30% -5.23% -7.84% -5.63% -5.10% -8.53% -0.45%

QQQQ 50.00 -1.73 -3.34% -8.12% -7.29% -6.59% 15.63% 4.80% 6.77% 16.74%

FXI 182.00 -2.43 -1.32% -12.61% -13.13% -10.01% 56.36% 39.19% 62.75% 103.31%

IFN 54.82 -0.38 -0.69% -13.46% -5.16% -4.63% 20.91% 19.04% 34.40% 16.14%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

PG 70.42 -0.42 -0.59% 1.25% -1.85% -1.79% 9.11% 8.39% 13.56% 10.38%

MO 72.71 -0.01 -0.01% 0.83% -0.36% 3.78% 12.00% 7.45% 6.04% 19.83%

JNJ 65.16 0.57 0.88% 0.59% 1.34% -1.18% -1.87% 7.12% 1.64% -1.50%

KO 60.83 -0.64 -1.04% 0.53% -1.20% 5.24% 25.22% 8.92% 14.54% 30.40%

MRK 55.90 1.13 2.06% -0.25% -2.92% 4.47% 26.99% 8.67% 7.40% 30.36%

MCD 58.31 -1.06 -1.79% -1.20% -0.27% 2.26% 32.92% 16.78% 16.99% 38.54%

XOM 86.85 -2.57 -2.87% -1.23% -5.81% -7.09% 17.19% 3.89% 6.67% 16.41%

JPM 42.31 -0.30 -0.70% -1.95% -10.59% -9.63% -11.98% -4.21% -20.47% -10.44%

DD 46.79 -0.75 -1.58% -2.44% -3.27% -4.63% -4.59% -4.63% -9.34% -0.97%

HON 57.76 -1.53 -2.58% -2.68% -2.83% -6.40% 28.07% 1.73% 1.67% 36.87%

UTX 73.51 -1.19 -1.59% -2.83% -2.56% -8.48% 17.04% 1.58% 6.89% 13.25%

WMT 42.90 -0.72 -1.65% -2.92% -3.90% -8.84% -9.78% -7.64% -10.49% -7.52%

T 39.20 -0.14 -0.36% -3.02% -5.45% -7.31% 12.16% -0.13% -0.68% 17.30%

AXP 56.49 0.39 0.70% -3.30% -6.89% -10.66% -6.41% -6.86% -10.73% -4.11%

DIS 32.74 -0.89 -2.65% -3.48% -4.77% -7.70% -4.27% -0.79% -9.36% -2.50%

AIG 57.06 1.06 1.89% -3.48% -8.19% -16.20% -20.91% -11.26% -20.75% -16.14%

PFE 22.83 -0.28 -1.21% -3.55% -6.09% -9.62% -13.16% -5.43% -15.94% -11.65%

VZ 42.77 0.04 0.09% -3.63% -6.21% -6.06% 13.09% 2.03% 3.91% 18.44%

BA 94.21 -2.07 -2.15% -3.63% -1.89% -2.56% 5.65% -4.16% 0.14% 10.69%

AA 37.09 -0.57 -1.51% -3.81% -5.74% -2.73% 26.46% 4.66% -4.23% 27.85%

GE 38.38 -0.64 -1.64% -4.84% -4.95% -6.46% 1.08% -1.44% 3.01% 8.76%

CAT 70.41 -2.02 -2.79% -5.82% -6.17% -12.32% 15.12% -10.28% -5.81% 18.94%

INTC 25.15 -0.78 -3.01% -6.16% -3.05% -1.57% 23.59% 5.14% 11.93% 23.16%

MMM 79.51 -3.32 -4.01% -6.34% -7.69% -15.57% 1.60% -8.46% -6.85% 0.77%

HPQ 48.39 -1.55 -3.10% -7.65% -7.78% -6.13% 16.27% 2.91% 7.70% 22.32%

HD 28.05 -1.04 -3.58% -7.73% -10.53% -16.12% -31.70% -21.63% -28.41% -23.88%

MSFT 33.73 -1.01 -2.91% -8.99% -3.71% 11.80% 12.96% 16.63% 9.58% 15.36%

C 33.10 0.20 0.61% -12.27% -22.36% -30.85% -40.09% -29.42% -38.84% -34.60%

IBM 100.25 -5.86 -5.52% -12.51% -11.85% -14.90% 3.07% -9.46% -3.95% 8.48%

GM 31.28 -1.87 -5.64% -15.44% -17.18% -26.64% 6.21% -10.24% 5.50% -9.44%

I shall do the Week In Review on Sunday morning.

Before then, students, it is an absolute requirement you watch the YouTube presentation of "Ron Paul Schools Ben Bernanke Again".

My favorite line, "The whole system is sub-prime!"

How can Republicans deny this man his candidacy for President of the United States?

Fellow astronauts, we shouldn't be saying, "Houston, we have a problem," but "Houston we have the solution." Clearly, by a light-year, this man, Dr. Ron Paul, is the best candidate.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 10, 2007 06:36:56 AM | Category: Saturday Report

Discourse

Great minds think alike?

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/11/saturday-morning-coffee-bling-mans.html

Bernanke 'Parkhursted'

Posted by: Ron at November 10, 2007 7:52 AM [link]

Cara 100 Table with SMA and RSI data: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

Posted by: TradersQuest at November 10, 2007 7:53 AM [link]

Ron,

Excellent blog entry....even the music was apropos.

Thanks!

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 10, 2007 8:32 AM [link]

moab- that was a great story, thanks...highly recommended reading->

reposting your link from last night:

http://tinyurl.com/26w7y9

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 10, 2007 9:03 AM [link]

Bill,
Looking forward to your WIR.
Retail Sales for next week will probably come in weak. The market will probably ignore it.
I posted a chart illustrating that Real Retail sales growth is actually picking up from a very low base.
I hope your readers benefited from my short term call which picked up most of the decline in the stock market.
One analysis claims that I come in at the top of
12 market timers by a huge amount.

Posted by: Will Rahal at November 10, 2007 9:22 AM [link]

Nov 9, 2007 11:08 EST

UBS Investment Research has updated its latest recommendations, target prices and estimates for the companies listed below following the release of third quarter results.

Alamos Gold (TSX-AGI)

The company reported EPS below both the brokerage and consensus estimates. Heavy rainfall in Mexico lowered gold recoveries and impacted crusher sthroughput. To reflect poor operating performance and increased uncertainty UBS has lowered its production forecasts and estimates.

Rating: Neutral.
12-month target price: Lowered to $7.50 from $8.00.
EPS estimates (US$): Fiscal 2007, $0.06; fiscal 2008, lowered to $0.23; fiscal 2009, lowered to $0.30.

Golden Star Resources (TSX-GSC)

EPS came in below the previous consensus. Although gold production increased by 66 per cent, cash costs also soared by 37 per cent. The brokerage’s revised target and estimates reflect higher operating costs, higher sustaining capital and more conservative production assumptions.

Rating: Buy.
12-month target price: Lowered to US$5.00 from $6.00.
EPS estimates (US$): Fiscal 2007, Lowered to a loss of $0.12; fiscal 2008, a profit of $0.21; fiscal 2009, a profit of $0.29.

Posted by: Trading My Chips at November 10, 2007 9:56 AM [link]

IS THERE A DOCTOR IN THE HOUSE?

:-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naMtwqBzja0

REGGAE AND RON PAUL, great tandem

Posted by: stockershock at November 10, 2007 10:04 AM [link]

LYRICS " HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM"

Posted by: stockershock at November 10, 2007 10:17 AM [link]

Korvus,

Just wanna say thanks for the great RSI Application you developed. One question about it : why is the trading price of securities from outside the US one day behind ?

Mark

Posted by: toptrader9 at November 10, 2007 10:20 AM [link]

I'm reading a story in my local newspaper about an area mortgage broker who recently went belly up.

When they opened his books, they found that he had secretly given the borrowers far more expensive mortgages than they bargained for and failed to forward some of their payments the mortgage lenders.

800 local borrowers were effected by this small, area operator.

One has to think that sort of thing has gone on nationwide, adding even more fuel to the fire of the US credit crunch.

Is anyone tabulating the amount of money robbed from innocent homebuyers by these criminals?

More SKF, please.

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 10, 2007 10:54 AM [link]

Tradersquest,
Can you explain the percentage sma's. Why not the actual price?

moab,
Is it your contention that 1987 is happening again in regards to the options selling, or are you just presenting that time frame's situation?

Posted by: stktrader at November 10, 2007 10:56 AM [link]

"I would suggest to you that all these leaders are going to get magnetized down to their 10 week moving averages. For some, that is a long way from here."

Gary Kaltbaum on techs and financials:

http://tinyurl.com/2kk2mn

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 10, 2007 11:03 AM [link]

fwiw, to follow up on my comment last week re:precious metals, now 3rd week in a row Silver stocks are in the top 5 strongest groups in breadth of the 273 i track ... gold stocks also strong, not AS strong...weekly charts of silver index XSLV has shooting star bearish look tho, might be time for a breather...

cheers,
ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

Posted by: RalphSE at November 10, 2007 11:09 AM [link]

Bull Hunter,

SKF is my new 401k for next couple months. Do you really think it can go to $200?

Leisa turned me onto Garyk months ago and he has been a great supplement to BCara as well.

With thanksgiving coming in america i can say i am happy that i am all cash and skf, and that i found resources/communities like this one.

Its very tempting to buy some puts on brokers like MS, MER, and GS when you look at their level 2 + 3 exposure relative to their equity.

Have a great weekend everyone.

Posted by: NYUgrad at November 10, 2007 11:11 AM [link]

follow up.

Seems like Prince Alwaleed is getting in on "Dont sell Citi"

http://tinyurl.com/yw9k8j

"Citibank at this price is ridiculous. Citibank does not deserve that. Citibank deserves a lot better," Prince Alwaleed was quoted as saying. He originally paid $2.75 per Citigroup share, adjusted for stock splits, he said.

Posted by: NYUgrad at November 10, 2007 11:20 AM [link]

"Do you really think it can go to $200?"

NYUgrad,

Nah. You did see the smiley face after my new target of $200? :^)

It would take a lot of big boys going belly up to get that far. Before that would happen, they'd change the rules.

I do think we could see 120-150 when the Level 3 info comes out.

The only nagging concern I have is the possibility of the Fed or Congress bailing out someone like Citigroup. I'm old enough to remember Chrysler.

Good luck.

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 10, 2007 11:26 AM [link]

"might be time for a breather... (for silver stocks)"

Posted by: RalphSE at November 10, 2007 11:09 AM

That's what I have been saying too. But why do you think that?

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 10, 2007 11:33 AM [link]

Somebody slap the Prince back into reality as he led the ouster of Ron 'Do Nothing' Prince and signed off on the hiring of Robert 'The $17M Do Nothing' Rubin. As the far more astute contributors here have advised, the Financials either lead the way up or shine the light on the way down and Citi is one of the front cars on the Bear Train. Like they say in Monterrey, El Tougho Al.

Bloomberg's Caroline Baum addresses Citi and other pertinent items here:

http://tinyurl.com/37ea8f

Posted by: redclaydawg at November 10, 2007 11:33 AM [link]

So any guesses who is the next financial institution that will come out of the closet? Here in Canada we had CIBC yesterday. I have heard and said here BMO could be next.

But, who may be next in the US?

Posted by: SiO2 at November 10, 2007 11:39 AM [link]

When the stupidity started in August I diversified my portfolio holdings into multiple accounts, "just in case".

The original broker I was diversifying FROM was E*Trade.

I warned them at the time - I've got a "relationship manager" assigned to my account - that if, in my opinion, it was later proven that they were being less-than-straightforward about their exposure to the mortgage mess, my accounts were just simply GONE.

Well, last night did it.

I'm ACATing my remaining accounts out of there.

I don't know if they'll survive or not. They probably will.

But I won't do business with people who are dishonest, and that's EXACTLY what I feel they've done.

If we, as investors and consumers, stop doing business with banks and other firms that have been less than honest with us, this problem will be resolved in a more expeditious fashion.

We should make that part of our goal.

Posted by: Genesis at November 10, 2007 12:13 PM [link]

Bill,

Your Table 8 ( Senior Financials ) speaks volumes. While all others are sitting deep in the red GS is looking fireproof with a +14.37% 12 month stock appreciation. Thats what you can expect when you have your point men at the table at the Treasury, the Fed and now the Bank of Canada ( US's largest trading partner ). Level playing field? Fugetaboutit!

Posted by: TerryC at November 10, 2007 12:15 PM [link]

Bull Hunter:

If I recall Chrysler PAID the "bail-out" back in a relatively short period of time.

I am old enough to remember when the auto companies and their workers were lucky to get 2 years in a row of steady work before there were layoffs and plant shutdowns.

Posted by: golfer at November 10, 2007 12:16 PM [link]

Craig,
I live in White Rock and it's a very short trip to Bellis Faire Mall once I clear the border lineup.

Fred

Posted by: Fred at November 10, 2007 12:20 PM [link]

Well folks...Is nine times the charm?

China raising reserves again...Maybe the fireworks start Sunday Night..I know I will be watching...What about you

http://tinyurl.com/ypwvwx

Posted by: basketguy at November 10, 2007 12:36 PM [link]

Baskeguy,
I'll be watching! Good on China for trying to strengthen their currency and reduce their trade surplus. It will take a year or two for rate increases to work through to results though. In the short-term the U.S. can't impose stiffer tariffs on China because China is economically superior and they might push back. I'm guessing that we will see some very heavy "buy American" marketing sponsored by the U.S. federal government this year. "Buy American and Wipeout Terrorism".

Posted by: Fred at November 10, 2007 1:01 PM [link]

Basketguy, sorry i dropped your "t"

Posted by: Fred at November 10, 2007 1:03 PM [link]

Oil - am I wrong if I say that:
a) we are not in a contango situation, but in backwardation (that is for example Dec07 is much more expensive than Dec08)
b) the crack spread of oil/gas is very low, and the big oil companies had a not-so-good quarter
c) next Friday the December contract will expire
then if speculators and traders don't get soon their 100USD oil we could see a 'nice' drop of oil price? After all the global growth is slowing, and someone soon could take some profit.
I think I'll buy some puts towards the end of next week.

Posted by: Lelik at November 10, 2007 1:06 PM [link]

Hi!

Bill, looking forward to read the WIR!

Regarding news: I am focusing on the news that we will get on the 15th regarding the level III portfolios. I guess it will be surprisingly bad.

All,

Thank you for the incredible ammount of valuable information I have seen published here.

It makes me feel priviledged to share information with you, under Bill's guidance.

Cheers to all from a sunny European autumn evening: a nice cup of tea outside on the open air tastes wonderfully on a day like today

:-)

Posted by: maromatics at November 10, 2007 1:19 PM [link]

"A 10% haircut on the $47B portfolio (many market values have dropped by
more than 10%) would wipe out all of ETFC’s $4.1B equity."

Genesis & Others,

Herb Greenberg's take on E-Trade:

http://tinyurl.com/24mpqa

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 10, 2007 1:54 PM [link]

Regarding the great post from last night - agreed, thanks Moab for posting - very instructive. A (minor) inaccuracy in the story however:

"Simon went out and bought 2000 of these puts for $0.0625 for a total cost of $12,500"

I believe these numbers don't work; either $125 was spent, or it was 200 000 puts.

Best wishes all, from Montreal (encore!)

Posted by: aa at November 10, 2007 2:23 PM [link]

Canada's Perimeter Financial will defy the terms of the Montreal Accord and start trading $35-billion of ABCP that has been frozen for several months. As soon as trading starts new prices will be set and owners of the paper will likely be forced to write down the value of their papers at a discounted price. Small resource companies and wealthy individuals that have made these terrible investments by holding ABCP never signed on to the Montreal Accord (which was mainly for the benefit of the banks involved). Perimeter is giving these parties an exit. Some of these investors will dump their ABCP and then sue the banks that sold it to them, as it has already happened with HSBC.

The Caisse would be one of the most affected as it will likely be forced to take multi-billion writedown even if trading is at say 85c on the dollar (a high estimate actually!).

Posted by: SiO2 at November 10, 2007 2:27 PM [link]

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/11/timing-devices.html

New overview of short and intermediate term 'timing' devices.

Posted by: Ron at November 10, 2007 2:30 PM [link]

aa, 2000 puts at $0.0625 is indeed $12,500 (100X leverage). I just wonder why Simon would not have sold a fraction to cover his cost, risk management.

Posted by: SiO2 at November 10, 2007 2:46 PM [link]

aa- each put contract is equivalent to 100 individual options, so 2000 contracts=200,000 options...i think that's what the article refers to....

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 10, 2007 2:47 PM [link]

gold------week of nov--12th--------16th?? any chance of a further north ward direction price increase?? $845.00 plus?? comments welcome. have a wonderful day all.

Posted by: russty1 at November 10, 2007 2:51 PM [link]

..make that each contract (option) is equivalent to 100 *shares* of the underlying asset...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 10, 2007 2:52 PM [link]

A history lesson on banking, titled Banking with Hitler.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/2zflcd

P.S.
Korvus, if you ever visit Honolulu, let me know drinks are on me.

Posted by: Telestar3d at November 10, 2007 3:54 PM [link]

Thanks regarding the explanation on the numbers in the puts article. Cool; was not evident to me. I guess I am not even in grade 4 in some things.

Posted by: aa at November 10, 2007 3:58 PM [link]

Bill,

Ron Paul has a snowball's chance in hell of getting the Republican nomination for President.

A populist ground swell for Ron Paul among primary voters going against State party leaders would be a miracle. Most of his supporters will only be able to write his name on the ballot about a year from now. Say another miracle happened and Ron did win the popular vote in the general election by a write in vote. the Constitution deals with such a scenario. The complex process of how the electoral college deals with a winning write in candidate printed could certainly deny Ron the Presidency, even though he had won the popular vote.

I'll be packing a black pen when I go to the poll...Voting for Ron Paul if his name is not on the ballot is at a minimum, a protest of the current system. Republocrats & Demopublicans no more.

Posted by: astral25 at November 10, 2007 4:11 PM [link]

{OK, OK FAIR WARNING - this IS poitical, but hey, it's the weekend!}

"Republocrats & Demopublicans no more."

Amen to that sentiment. This is the position that needs to be driven home across America.

And not just at the Presidential level - rather at every Federal, state and local legislative level as well. Look at what happened to Arnold when he tried to pass initiatives to bring some control into CA state government. He was roasted at the polls (for a variety of reasons). The Democratic legislature only provided the rope to hang him!

In point of fact it's probably more important to begin this de-evolutionary political process at the legislative levels. If the 'corporate statists' in both parties are not swiftly dispatched the veiled guise of fascism will solidify and the journey back will become much more difficult.

What does this have to do with your investments?

Glad you asked! Besides devaluing your wealth, covering up their economic miscues, and burying your children in national debt, the "Republocrats & Demopublicans" are destroying the economic basis of free trade, fair investing and social responsibility. This needs to stop - NOW!

ps: no..... I'm not related to Kaimu ;-)

Posted by: siguy at November 10, 2007 4:46 PM [link]

Bill,

Saw the video: unbelievable.

Of course that Ben will ignore the inflationary consequences of his policy and will go on printing cash as fast as he can in order to reflate the US economy and thereby salvage the HB&B plutocrats.

Posted by: maromatics at November 10, 2007 5:25 PM [link]

Hi again,

Where I come from, in our native language, we have a say that translates in English more or less like this:

"There is no bread for crazy people".

:-)

Posted by: maromatics at November 10, 2007 5:28 PM [link]

Jim Willie has a good article entitled
Deadly Dollar Confluence at 321Gold.com

He discusses the consequences of the collapse of the dollar. Here's a bit of it...
"Also, the crude oil price will not stop at the 100 price level. Some shallow commentary came this week that the oil price is overbought, and that a correction is coming when 100 is indeed hit. Probably true, but the correction might last a couple days and send the oil price down to 98. The forces behind the push to 100 are all gaining strength, not abating, and no remedy is in sight. Look for crude oil to head next to 110 before January is too far along. By then with gold and oil making headlines, the bandwagon for the bear trades on the USDollar will become a national nightmare, urging a national solution. Unfortunately, the same corrupt banksters will be asked to design and formulate the remedy. So look for the Ruling Elite to take care of itself, just like in 1998 when the LongTerm Capital Mgmt fiasco brought about the largest public bailout of aristocrats in modern history. This one will be one to two orders bigger. The LTCM bailout had a secondary motive to prevent a gold price explosion. This bailout will have a similar secondary motive, but it will fail!

A final note on the shortcoming even in the gold community to properly state what the previous 800 price peak means in today's price terms. They employ the fallacious Consumer Price Inflation index probably out of habit, or out of indoctrination, or out of intimidation. The CPI is wrong by a factor of three. The old 1980 gold peak price is equivalent in my book to about a 3000. Why? Because the exact sounding 1550 figure quoted, using the CPI, is clearly wrong in its lift by a factor of at least two, conservatively. That is correct, the gold peak 27 years ago is equal to at least $3000 now. We are heading to a 3000 gold price in conservative terms, since the problems in the Untied States are insurmountable, unfixable, without any remedy. The only real life solution will be a more visible totalitarian state complete with rationing. If you believe rationing will not happen, just look at the crack spread, the difference between the oil price and gasoline price. It is rising dangerously, crimping energy firm profits. Unless the gasoline price rises by 50 cents, we are certain to face shortages, lines to buy gasoline, and fights. Next come riots. In fact, job loss, home foreclosure, food prices, gasoline shortages, and bank runs will likely be the basis of social chaos in the next two years. One will not be capable of recognizing the US landscape in ten years, maybe five years. The whole world will be watching."

Full Story at:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie110907.html

Posted by: astral25 at November 10, 2007 5:43 PM [link]

astral25,

I think Jim Willie is right about the consequences of dollar collapse. Strauss & Howe's fascinating "generational cycles" perspective _The Fourth Turning_ points toward a similarly challenging era from a socio-economic perspective.

In any event I am long--very long--both gold and Smith & Wesson.

Posted by: johojo at November 10, 2007 6:42 PM [link]

Does anyone here know what is the status of the lobbying against FASB 157, and the current status of $100B bailout plan?

It seems that the purpose of the bailout is simply to price to market the investments that are now unmarketable and cannot be valued, by allowing the banks to trade these securities among themselves, and thus thus declaring a fake (non-zero) value on Nov 15.

Please tell me this is not true.

Posted by: SiO2 at November 10, 2007 6:50 PM [link]

Well Well Thank you once again one and all who come here & share your time & experiences.

Lazarus Lives! (That would be My trading Account BTW)
Yep I have enjoyed the fireworks of late. Why? (1) proof of concept. Thank you Mr. Cara. (2) oh er well seems that I find myself with all this cash laying around. Damn I must have sold into strength...I wonder how that could have happened. LOL

Re; Dr Paul: Never say never. Maybe just maybe he could garner enough support to be put on the ticket as someones VP.

Then shortly after the election some "crazy" person, you know

someone who has basically been "outsourced" into poverty & feels pretty angry about it,

assassinates the newly elected President. And Vio-la Mr. Paul finds himself Commander and Chief.

Hey now That's not funny!!!

No it's not Funny. It is however a modern version of American History.

You see that is the story of how Theodore Roosevelt, demonstrably one of Americas most effective leaders, became President.

Posted by: Lazarus at November 10, 2007 6:55 PM [link]

I was listening to Bob Brinker's MoneyTalk tonight and he took Paulson and Bernacke to task almost the entire show for publicly saying they want a strong dollar, while facilitating the exact opposite with their policies. More than once he called them both liars. Brinker's take is that they want a weak dollar to help companies exporting America's goods and maybe even to encourage more exporting. He wouldn't go so far as to admit that the crashing dollar is a sign of foreign countries losing faith in our system but it was so funny to hear how mad he sounded because Paulson won't just tell the truth. I was by myself and laughing out loud.

Have a great night. And a profitable next week!!

Rob.

Posted by: Finger Lakes at November 10, 2007 7:43 PM [link]

Bill,
I was wondering which broker would be your first choice if I wanted to dump out of E*trade?

Thanks, Rob.

Posted by: Finger Lakes at November 10, 2007 7:45 PM [link]

http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html

Posted by: Pierre at November 10, 2007 8:00 PM [link]

Olaf,

Thank your updates on cara100. Sorry about the previous incomplete post.

Interested in csv http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html. please email dripologist at gmail.com

Pierre

Posted by: Pierre at November 10, 2007 8:02 PM [link]

re gold: "any chance of a further north ward direction price increase?? $845.00 plus??"

here's one data point from Hulbert:

http://tinyurl.com/33msje

excerpt:

"As of Thursday night, the HGNSI stood at 52.9%.
Believe it or not, this is just 1.1 percentage point higher than where the HGNSI stood on the date of my last column, when gold bullion was trading around $785 per ounce.
If you had asked me two weeks to predict how the gold timers would react to a $60 rally, without hesitation I would have forecast a huge spike in bullish sentiment.

It's also worth noting that the current HGNSI level is nowhere close to approaching the index's all-time high, which stands at 90%. Again, there is no sign of the kind of stubbornly-held bullishness - irrational exuberance, if you will - that characterizes a market about to top.
The bottom line is the same today as it was two weeks ago. As I ended my column then: The subdued sentiment among the gold timers "bodes well for the gold market over the next several weeks."

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 10, 2007 8:28 PM [link]

This comment is very biased based on my current investing strategy and general outlook, but I'm confused as to why more members of this community aren't posting about the opportunity in the alternative energy sector (solar, wind, etc.. ) ?

I was happy to see someone the other day mention ESLR and ENER as these are the solar plays that I have been following (especially ENER which I beleive is the most undervalued amongst its competitors). I read this blog daily (and the discourse) to gain valuable insight. I think the main underlying thread of the discourse here is how financial markets and policy affect our investments. (a big focus being how the Fed and HB&B actions affect every aspect of the economy) -- but what about the physical crisis that is fast approaching? It will completely reorient how the modern world functions and I think there is big money to be made off of this transformation.

Posted by: sadleb at November 10, 2007 8:29 PM [link]

Finger Lakes Rob,

Picking a broker depends on your needs. I like Interactive Brokers and OptionsXpress. CMC Markets offer good services to a certain type of clientele. Private Swiss banks are best for some accounts, but too expensive for most.

IB is better suited to active traders. OptionsXpress offers personal help and covers much more than than options. In Canada, I support my old firms Qtrade, Canaccord and RBC Dominion Securities. All of them offer something different.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 10, 2007 8:30 PM [link]

You mean my tummy troubles are related to JT's Merlot?

I should tell you that i am quite enjoying the company of a new acquaintance this evening. A lovely Merlot from the Napa region.

http://louismartini-nvv.com/merlot.html

Posted by: brendan at November 10, 2007 9:33 PM [link]

Lilek,
Why is backwardation in oil contracts leading you to buy puts? And do you mean puts on the futures? ETF? XOM?

Also, that Bernanke/Paul video is infuriating. The whole "Well, they get paid in dollars and shop in dollars, so it's OK" is just simplistic, pandering, lying crap. The worst part is, he knows it and he still says that stuff.

Yes, they get paid in dollars, but the oil that heats their houses is priced in wooden nickels, and all of the suppliers we buy stuff from need to buy aluminimum, steel, etc., and have to shop for it on a world market.

Paul is right in that people, mostly the little people, are being stolen from, blatantly and continuously, via rampant inflation. But it's insanely hard to make them understand. I've tried.

==================================

As an aside - I was out in the East Village at some funky bar last night, having a few drinks with a friend, and we started talking to the guy next to us. Turns out he has, or had, a weed delivery service and my friend, being interested in supply chain management, was very interested in hearing about it. Guy had a whole system so that as soon as you called in with a code, it brought up your record in a database, had a hierarchical system of runners, etc., etc. (no, we weren't shopping for any!) Anyway, point is, I brought up silver, as I often do, and he says "Yeah, I got some of that, these big bars" Me: "How big" Him: "I don't know, about this big (he holds his hands apart) I got seven of 'em down in the safety box." Guy's got seven COMEX silver bars and doesn't even know what they are. "But the coolest thing are the gold ones." Me:"!" Him: "Yeah, I love looking at them even more than them other ones. Man! Those things are heavy, woah! Like, you hold it and your hands go (he mimes dropping his hands down.)"

I warned him about confiscation from safety deposit boxes, though I didn't have time to explain it in detail. At that point we changed the converesation and didn't ask any more questions.

Only in New York...

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 10, 2007 9:43 PM [link]

My XpressTrade futures account is being shifted to the OptionsXpress platform.

I hope the charts are better. Other than the bogus margin calls I get because they don't get the correct price on one or more legs of my options spreads, XpressTrade has been OK, and is pretty cheap for futures trades. But I'm looking forward to OptionsXpress. They seem to get a lot of awards for being good online brokers. Plus the one account I have will now be able to trade WAY more instruments. And the charts with XPressTrade are missing some indicators I would like to use.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 10, 2007 9:48 PM [link]

Thanks Bill,
I'll look into both IB and OptionsExpress and then switch my accounts over. Hopefully I won't miss too many trading days. Thanks again for the great blog.

Rob.

Posted by: Finger Lakes at November 10, 2007 9:53 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

astral25 & sadleb ... I have been a voice here for many years in terms of debt freedom and self sustainability through downsizing and rural relocation. I believe many here consider me to be in the realm of "tin hats" on this subject, but in terms of reality it is really the only avenue left to US citizens given the enormous size of our government and its money supply and the accompanying inflation rates to come. Does it make sense in an ever rising environment of "scarcity" to position oneself in McMansion subdivisions? Fiat monetary systems create scarcity of goods because sooner or later basics become unaffordable to the Average Joe and become uneconomical to manufacture, especially for imported goods and services. For people like Bush and Oprah and Trump there will not be such a dire struggle. A struggle ... yes ... but just not "dire"! Any time when scarcities exist social tensions naturally escalate out of fear and loss of confidence in the future.

I recall the gas lines in the USA in the 1970s when they had rationing of gas depending on your license plate number. Plates ending in even and odd numbers could only fill up on certain days, but in order to fill up you had to endure very long lines in most major US cities. Not so in rural areas. For US citizens to endure such a rationing system now would spell even more chaos than in the 1970s. We simply have many more people and many more gas guzzling SUVs type cars. Add in, who can take off work to wait in gas lines, since most couples work, unlike the 1970s. I guess that's when your relationships with your parents and Grandparents come into play. Scarcity always forces families to be closer and set aside differences in lifestyle, politics and needs. Such a scenario today would in most cases also render SUVs totally worthless and like in the 1970s, when I was living in New Orleans, I would see big Cadillac cars and such abandoned on the side of the road all vandalized. I recall my Grandmother ended up selling her Cadillac which was practically new for pennies on the dollar based on its value during the prior year, something like $1200USD. On the other hand economical cars like Hondas and VW bugs became very popular and were in great demand. Honda dollar values were rising as Cadillac values fell. I find it ironic that here we are again facing rising gas prices and supply shortages as the US Big 3 car manufacturers are caught behind the gas guzzling eight-ball yet again as our government is mired in yet another unwinnable long term foreign war! Can the US taxpayer afford another Chrysler type bailout along with a bailout of all the major US banks and Iraq War bailouts? I doubt it because I do not think the foreigners will allow it this time. I speak in terms of our currency value which is a double whammy against any economic recovery here in the USA in the forseeable future. These are definitely not the 1970s !!!

So what will foreigners like the Chinese and the Indians do with their more valuable currencies? I leave out the Europeans and the Euro because that is another mini-dollar waiting to happen! They will all come to the USA to buy hard assets like real estate and businesses that produce hard assets. Like Richard Maybury has said hard assets are preferable to companies who's sustainability depends on patents and copyrights and intellectual property rights. These people are not steeped in multiple decades of endless oppulant consumerism like Americans. They feel safe with real estate and food and fuel(all non CPI consumables)not I-Pods or Oracle software! It offers little consolation to listen to US economists and politicians talking about devaluing a US Dollar in order to rebalance deficits and trade while in the same breath American hard assets are up for sale like a giant SWAP MEET! In a gold based monetary system this could never happen since errant government spending would be caused to collapse. In the modern free floating currency exchanges that are suppose to mimic the "gold standard" debasement is the order of the day. All currencies are debased but the spoils go to that country's currency who is debased least and those who hold gold/silver and the companies that explore and mine "real money"! That is not the US Peso right now.

This is why the gold and silver "real money" ETFs will fail and investors will run to "real money" explorers and mining companies. Investors will realize that these ETFs are totally dependant on "supply" and the supply will not be there, especially when western central banks reverse course and start buying gold instead of selling it like Asian central banks do now! I guarantee you that when GLD and SLV collapse you will not get metal for your troubles just paper IOUs!

I prefer to own the "real money" printing press not the warehouse(ETFs)! What good is a warehouse with supply shortages? Look at explorers and miners in those terms and you will see what my startegy has been for many years and still is. Its supply and demand and always has been! ETFs will have the demand but not the supply. What kind of a long term gold bull trend business model is that? Its one that is designed to enrich the Wall Street banks that hold the actual physical gold not the "investors" whose hard-earned money bought it!

Just don't forget to own more of the metal and less of the ETF!

Oh and start shopping for rural farm land ...

Posted by: kaimu at November 10, 2007 10:54 PM [link]

MikeNYC,
What do you mean by shifting the accounts? I have an xpresstrade account as well. Are they doing it or are you requesting it? How seamless is the transfer?

Posted by: stktrader at November 10, 2007 11:07 PM [link]

stktrader, this came to my inbox Nov 2. Nutshell: if you notify them you want to stay on the XpressTrade platform, you can. Otherwise, I guess it's OptionsXpress for us. I'm not notifying, though I do want more information about the 'new tiered pricing.' I don't trade a lot and don't want to be penalized for it.

Dear MikeNYC,
As futures traders, we know that change can be a good thing. In fact, we thrive on it. However, when it comes to trading platform changes, we're not nearly as enthusiastic – the last thing we need is to struggle with a new and overly complex trading site.
That's why, when optionsXpress and Xpresstrade combined forces earlier this year, we made a commitment to keep things simple. After all, Xpresstrade earned your business by taking the very same approach – offering a practical and user-friendly Web site, backed by friendly, knowledgeable support.
We're excited to inform you that the updated and improved optionsXpress site is ready, and we’re here to help you make the switch. Your Xpresstrade account will be converted to an optionsXpress account at the close of business on November 30, 2007, unless you notify us otherwise by November 28, 2007 – please follow the link at the bottom of this page for more details*.
You'll quickly notice that the optionsXpress futures platform is an enhanced version of the Xpresstrade site you already know and love. We've done more than simply shift all the products and features to optionsXpress – we've kept what works and made the rest even better! You'll still find the same tools and resources you've come to depend on as an Xpresstrade client, like free real-time quotes, interactive charts, breaking news, and special contingent orders, to name just a few. In addition, you'll get a whole lot more, including:
» The ability to trade futures, stocks, options, bonds, and ETFs in a single account
» Superior tools – enhanced charts, trade tickets, quote screens, news & research
» A full suite of educational events and resources to help you improve your trading skills
» A new tiered pricing structure that rewards you as your trading volume grows
» Quick, friendly, knowledgeable customer service available 24 hours a day
We know that change can be intimidating and uncomfortable, but it also can be great. We've worked hard to make sure the only changes you'll see are for the better. Please pass along your comments and suggestions. We not only want your business, we want your feedback on how we can make your trading experience even better!
Yours truly,

Ned Bennett Dan O'Neil
Executive Vice Chairman Executive Vice President, Futures
optionsXpress Holdings, Inc. optionsXpress, Inc.
P.S. Watch your email over the coming weeks for instructions on how to access your optionsXpress account. If you have any questions or concerns, please call our futures desk toll-free at 1.800.947.6228, or send a message to info@optionsxpress.com.
*For more information about this transfer, Please Read This Required Notice.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 10, 2007 11:33 PM [link]

Humongous Banks agree on $75B backup fund:

http://tinyurl.com/24jv7q

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 10, 2007 11:45 PM [link]

Jim Willie said (Posted by Astral):
"We are heading to a 3000 gold price in conservative terms, since the problems in the Untied States are insurmountable, unfixable, without any remedy."
I disagree with this very much. I do not disagree with his $3000 gold prediction but I VEHEMENTLY disagree that the USA problems are unfixable and without remedy. There will be much PAIN for a long time fixing the problems but they ARE fixable.

To Lazarus:
I doubt Ron Paul would compromise his principles enough to agree to support another candidate as VP. He has been asked repeatedly and has replied only if the Pres candidate shared his views. That isn't going to happen. Anecdotal, I had to get a new copy of my driver's license last week and changed my voter registration to Repub....just so I could vote for Ron in the upcoming primary.

On Paulson and Bernanke's 'strong dollar goals'. Since we all know that is a blatant lie we should accept their ACTIONS over their WORDS and invest accordingly.

To sadleb:
In Nevada and California ALL of the public utilities are either under mandate or have as goals to have 20% electrical generation come from renewables within about the next decade. Hydro counts as renewable. Most Cal utilities are looking HEAVILY at solar. Nevada has extensive geothermal and is adding solar as I type this.

Bernanke is a fool and yes his response to Dr. Paul was assinine at best.

Thanks Mr. Cara and posters for a great blog.

Posted by: JVS3 at November 10, 2007 11:57 PM [link]

A funny video on CDOs and dodgy debt. Closer to reality than Wall Street would like to admit.

http://tinyurl.com/37x8at

Posted by: Simon A at November 11, 2007 8:16 AM [link]

To all:

I just sent the following to those that I know that have served in the military from WW11 thru to today.

If you are a vet then this message is for you also.

"I may not like war but I sure like the people that served their country so that I can enjoy peace today.

Remembrance Day must be tough on those that can remember what it was really like so I just wanted you to know that I am thinking about you today."

Maybe you know someone that needs remembering today.

Send them a message or give them a call.

Posted by: golfer at November 11, 2007 11:32 AM [link]

Bill,

Great WIR.

Just a commment: I beg to differ, but I see more losses in equity this week, basically because of Level III and because of the building up of pressure and margin calls at the ABX credit markets.

The common word for banks will be "margin call, gentlemen",

That is why I am expecting quite a tough week ahead for US equities, but maybe I am wrong...

:-)

Keep cool.

Posted by: maromatics at November 11, 2007 1:57 PM [link]

maromatics,

I'm not calling for a rally here. I merely opined that the closing sell-off on Friday probably set up an opening morning rally attempt on Monday. That may or not be effective. We have to see how much ammo the Bulls are prepared to put into the battle. Obviously the Bears are loaded and prepared to pull this market down, and further out, say a couple days or possibly weeks, I see more selling.

As I say, a Bear is defined by lower highs and lower lows. I am only thinking that maybe Monday's open sets a new low and then we have to re-test the recent intra-day high.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 11, 2007 2:24 PM [link]

golfer,

My Dad was a WWII veteran who served about five years, including several in Europe. He volunteered for the Airforce, then the Navy and finally the Army. He was turned down by all three because of his Italian heritage. But his second application to the Army was accepted. He returned home a Sergeant, stayed in the Army long enough to be trained as a licensed electrician for the IBEW. Basically he never missed a day of work until he retired, always going from lowest to highest field person and back, and often working in the office when jobs were scarce. He always talked about his jobs where he was responsible for the Air Canada hanger and part of the Toronto subway jobs, but he never talked about the Army. In his final year, while on his deathbed, besides Stelco, I got him to open up about the Army. Not much because there wasn't much nice to talk about. He was proud he served though, as I am proud he did.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 11, 2007 2:38 PM [link]

2nd. moab,

Re>"Simon went out and bought 2000 of these puts for $0.0625"

Thanks for posting, very interesting reading and quite a lesson.

Please clarify for me if you can, WHAT DID SIMON BUY PUTS ON? WHAT UNDERLYING ASSETS? DID HE BUY A BASKET OF STOCKS' PUTS? AN INDEX? I DON'T GET THE IDEA FROM ARTICLE.

Hope you can explain.

Thanks much.

Posted by: moneygenie at November 11, 2007 2:39 PM [link]

I have a Google alert on FASB 157. This came today, from some Internet board, as a suggestion for those who don't want to buy financial puts: "SKF: This is not a buy-and-hold, its a buy-and-watch-like-a-hawk. This ETF is essentially a derivative, so at some point you'll want to take your gains and run for the hills."
Great advice.

Posted by: SiO2 at November 11, 2007 2:55 PM [link]

GBU.TO

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7087194.stm

Posted by: Pierre at November 11, 2007 3:03 PM [link]

mg-

i'm not a finance genius, but my take (using friday's close on SPY as an example):

Simon would have recommended buying Jun 08 puts on the SPY with a 130 strike price->bid/ask about $5.50. (130 is about 10% out of the money, and Jun 08 is about 6 months out).

If you buy 2000 contracts, this would run you $1,100,000.

I can't afford that.

But if they artificially dropped the price to 6.25% of "true market value," that would bring it down to an affordable $68,750.

If I understand correctly, in Summer '87 there was so little volatility (complacence), and so many brokers making money selling puts (as well as so-called portfolio insurance), that it drove the price of the put to 6% of market value. Simon made a bet that things would go the other way.

So if instead of paying a $5.50 premium for the puts you could instead buy them for $0.34, you probably would. At $5.50, the SPY would have to drop below 125 by Jun 08 for you to make any money. At $0.34, it would only need to drop below 129.66...

I think 125 is a reasonable downside target for the SPYders. If you had the chance to shell out 68K for a reasonable chance of making 1m (or more!), you might do it, right?

Anyone with a finance background can probably weigh in with a clearer explanation...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 3:31 PM [link]

Moneygenie - Simon probably bought OEX puts - yon the S&P100. That was a major vehicle then. I had (too) few October OEX puts, which went up 27x.

They settled on the Saturday before Black Monday. Had I had November OEX puts, I'd now be in fat city!

Posted by: Jock at November 11, 2007 3:32 PM [link]

broadening crisis? - the rating agencies and the bond insurers -

FT's Gillian Tett focused Friday on rating agencies' dilemma over rating the "monoline" bond insurers, AMBAC, MBIA, etc. Subprime slime is a small % of what they insure, but losses could easily compromise their capital base.

If the rating agencies downgrade the insurers, a broad range of insured bonds (incl. munis) could be affected.

That's one reason why this is MUCH broader than just a subprime crisis. This is also why it's much tougher to fix than was Long Term Capital - where so much of the crisis centered upon 1 busted fund, which major actors knew - having invested in it.

Here and now it's a complicated tangle of institutions and intersts that underly the crisis. I can understand that Bernanke isn't taking in the big picture or acting boldly. After all, he's an academic!

But, where is Paulson in all this? Superfund? a dud! Convincing the Chinese to float rates? - they're not that stupid. Are there no other arrows in his quiver?

Is Paulson thinking, no problem, sharp investment bankers can make money in either direction? from prosperity or disaster?

Or is his boss (Cheney) really so non-interventionist? or spiteful? - as to "let the marketplace decide"?

Posted by: Jock at November 11, 2007 3:51 PM [link]

It appears that only three metals have very attractive graphs when compared to the Canadian dollar: Lead, Molybdenum, and Tin. Lead surprises me given that the press around it is constantly negative. Tin is the only one that has done well in the last month.

Tin (USD):
http://www.infomine.com/Investment/HistoricalCharts/ShowCharts.asp?c=Tin

Posted by: northvan at November 11, 2007 4:09 PM [link]

An agreement was reached on the Superfund, and it appears that now this fund will buy any junk and assign the same risk level to all of their securities (in other words it will end up with all of the worst securities). I just fear that this is step one to get all of the crap in one place for some huge taxpayer bailout.

Posted by: TennesseeTrader at November 11, 2007 4:13 PM [link]

Bill or anyone else:

How far out would you recommend going with the selling of WMT puts? What's the risk of going out a year, taking in a large premium, and possibly owning the stock at $36.50?

Toby

Posted by: bdtobias at November 11, 2007 4:23 PM [link]

cyderman
It was me that was looking for the Citi chart thanks for the help.

Posted by: mikede at November 11, 2007 4:38 PM [link]

Bill,

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

Of course I agree with you.

Once more, please accept my gratitude and congratulations for a great WIR: it really adds true value, and as you know value is very scarce.

Cheers,

Posted by: maromatics at November 11, 2007 4:48 PM [link]

China's M3 growth was 18.5% YOY in September.

http://tinyurl.com/39ux87

Top growing appliance? Freezers...

Mining of "Other Ores" grew 166%. What are these Other Ores? Zinc? Tin?

What kind of exposure does Cara 100 WHR have to China? Has it fixed its previous mistakes yet? Stock is below 50D & 200D MA. What sort of call options would you look at if you wanted to play this? Short interest has decreased month over month.

M3 appears to be going vertical.
http://tinyurl.com/m7bs7

Posted by: wavesmash at November 11, 2007 5:05 PM [link]

Eight Board Members Of Hershey (HSY) Resign:

http://tinyurl.com/34v3zu

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 5:31 PM [link]

JVS3,

I applaud those that are being proactive about how to prepare for the changes ahead. I pray that the next U.S. administration follows their lead (as the current administration is hopeless).

kaimu,

Thanks for the detailed and thoughtful response. I like the idea of holding "real" money through shares in mining companies (instead of ETFs). That theme has been a primary draw to this blog. Thanks to Bill, I sold WGDFF (now WGW) for a hefty gain and am looking to buy a gold miner again once the sector cools a bit (hopefully before end of Jan.). But isn't gold more of a defensive investment? Defense is necessary but its only 50% of the game. I beleive that a portion of my capital should be invested in a company generating wealth (one with a value-added product). Miners/explorers simply hold assets that store value but they do not generate value.

I try to envision the U.S. in 10-15 years and definitely see your "downsizing and rural relocation" scenario. Farmland huh? Not sure how serious that comment was -- but interesting idea. Farms turn dirt into marketable goods, owning one would be a wise invesment if scarcity becomes the word of the day.

If we are looking a decade out (maybe not the same timeframe as some) alternative energy seems to me "the next big thing." I understand that it may be considered too speculative for someone nearing retirement but maybe not. It depends on the real timeframe of Peak Oil.

Does anyone else here have any input on this? As an investor, the Peak Oil timeframe could be the make-it or break-it issue at hand. I for one am utterly convinced that we will not see the turn of the decade without the day of reckoning. FETV mentions it in passing at times but no one is taking it serious yet.

For this issue, I appreciate your analogy to the 1970s gas crisis. I have often considered buying Honda and Toyota because demand for fuel efficient transportation will soar as the energy shortage grips the world. Maybe that's why Buffett has beefed up his railroad holdings in the past year.

A big point to consider is that in the 1970s the gas shortage was caused purely by political developments. That is not the case now. (Yes FETV and the politicians are still trying to play off high gas prices as political -- these pesky terrorists are causing us pain at the pump and that's *all*. We just need to spend more on defense!) This time around any shortage will likely be caused by geological factors (mixed with high demand of course).

Many may not agree, but this time around after those abandoned SUVs litter the landscape and we return to normalcy, normal will no longer be defined as perpetual growth. This has been the mantra of the past century but surely will not persist through the next. Individuals will no longer be afforded the luxury of lugging around several tons with them wherever they go. An efficient transportation system will be required and rural life will be forced upon many. So, I do like Buffetts railroad play.

This post has turned into somewhat of a rant -- I admit. But hell, I'm in my early twenties and I have a whole life to live with what the previous two generations left behind. So let's say I'm passionate about these issues.

Posted by: sadleb at November 11, 2007 5:37 PM [link]

China bank builds stake in Rio
By Sylvia Pfeifer
Last Updated: 11:38pm GMT 10/11/2007

An arm of the Chinese state has taken a secret stake in Rio Tinto, the mining giant that last week received an approach from rival BHP Billiton.

http://tinyurl.com/2dgy5k

Posted by: moneygenie at November 11, 2007 5:58 PM [link]

sadleb,

I share your interest in alternative energy.

Though less than 6 years from retirement age, I currently own shares of Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI), a play on totally battery powered vehicles and other nano products.

When the time is right (sometime after the crash), I'm planning to invest in AES and FWLT, as plays on wind power and infrastructure.

Alternative energy and infrastructure are my two best ideas for future investing. Clean water is a must for emerging nations. This is another avenue to explore.

IMHO, you're on the right track. Good luck to you.

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 6:03 PM [link]

It is very interesting that none of the major indicies on stockcharts.com are onP&F bear signals.

Secondly, there have never been so many ETF's on monthly RSI7 signals <20.

Tech: BBH, XSD
Banks: IAT, KBE
Financials: IYF, IYG, PGF, PRFF, RYF, UYG, VFH, XLF, FFA
Retail: PMR, RCD,RTH,XRT
Microcap: PZI, RMY

Dan

Posted by: danf at November 11, 2007 6:21 PM [link]

Pierre,
Re: Gabriel (GBU). In my opinion share price could be dragged down with the market or if the price of gold drops but, nothing can lift it except a permit. The company states that they don't expect a permit under the current ruling party. That's enough for me to leave it alone.

http://tinyurl.com/23chov

Posted by: Fred at November 11, 2007 6:31 PM [link]

Hi.

I tend to disagree with you Bill when you say: "If you want another indicator of where the North American and European equity markets are headed, you can watch the Yen:USD pair."

If you do want an indicator where stock markets are headed closely watch EUR/Yen pair. It has a correlation of 93% with major stock indexes.

Try to correlate US Dollar index with stock markets and you find a very low number. $USD was very bullish during last stock market bear.

By the way can someone please tell me wheres the US Stock Market bull market in the last five years, because I cannot find one. Can you draw the Dow over USD and still find a bull market? Draw the same over Euro and you find a very pretty laggard. I live in Europe and I have a dollar based stock mutual fund and in the last years I could have earn more with a low to none risk financial product.

I don't believe in a bear market in 2008 because the Republicans doesn't want to lose so simple the presidential run. Do you think Guilliani could win over Clinton if the Dow and S&P 500 lose 20% or more in the election year? What do you think Bernanke and Paulson are doing?

As you say, Bill, we trade prices whatever they are.

Thanks,
Luís

Posted by: Lugopt at November 11, 2007 6:37 PM [link]

Updated Cara 100 with FITB replaced by KO.
See table at http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.html
Download CSV: http://www.tradersquest.de/cara100.csv

Posted by: TradersQuest at November 11, 2007 6:46 PM [link]

Can someone direct me to the report posted some weeks ago regarding junior, intermediate, and senior gold mining companies and their leverage when gold is in the $600s and $700s? Thanks.

Posted by: Novice at November 11, 2007 6:57 PM [link]

Luis,

I agree that the present administration is desperate to forestall any crashes until AFTER they get out of office. I imagine all administrations have tried to do this. That way they can say, "well everything was fine while I was in office, then so-and-so got in there and it all went to hell".

The presidential election is 12 months off. The question is, can the fed keep the markets propped up that long? Personally, I don't think they can. I think they are already straining and are running out of juice. They've driven the dollar down into record lows, they've been lying for months now(it's contained, etc), Helicopter Ben has been dropping ever larger loads of cash into the breaks and you can rest assured that when HB&B starts crying for more rate cuts, they'll give it to them.

I would say this present market is about done. I have already adjusted my portfolio with the expectation that sometime in the near future the market is going to correct. Either in a steady slide or a sudden fall off a cliff.

Keep in mind I'm still a newb at trading so I could always be wrong. ;-)

Posted by: Zenob at November 11, 2007 6:58 PM [link]

TradersQuest,
I really like what you have done with your Excell spreadsheets. My only question is why are the ma's a percentage instead of the actual number?

Posted by: stktrader at November 11, 2007 6:58 PM [link]

NIKKEI 225 down over 400 points.

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 7:52 PM [link]

Any real time Nikkei quotes like we have for Shanghai and Hang Seng?

Posted by: Novice at November 11, 2007 7:58 PM [link]

Novice,

This is as close as I can find:

http://tinyurl.com/yrm3b

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 8:02 PM [link]

which puts the Nikkei at the low for the year...august 17 intraday low was 15,262...now at 15,180...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 8:07 PM [link]

Thank you Bull Hunter.

Gold under some pressure right now.

Posted by: Novice at November 11, 2007 8:10 PM [link]

On the subject of brokers...

Can anyone recommend brokers to handle COMMODITY FUTURES?

Ideally, these brokers would also handle equities and equity options; but it is not essential. Currently, I deal with TD Waterhouse and OptionsExpress.

Posted by: northvan at November 11, 2007 8:18 PM [link]

XpressTrade is completing it's merger with OptionsXpress later this month. Why don't you stay with them?

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 11, 2007 8:29 PM [link]

READ ALL ABOUT IT!!!

US will retake economic superpower crown
By Ambrose Evans- Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:27pm GMT 11/11/2007

"Every 20 years or so, the punditocracy consigns America to the economic dustbin. Remember the chorus in the late 1980s telling us that Germany and Japan had mastered the art of wealth creation? The chatter peaked just as the 1988-1992 US export boom began to take off - after a dollar crash, of course.

At the end of the day, the US remains the only major power still producing babies a rate high enough to survive through the 21st century as a dynamic society..........

The mini-bubbles are bursting one by one. Modern art popped last week. Van Gogh's Wheat Fields was passed over at Sotheby's last week. So was Braque's L'Echo. Sotheby's share price fell 37pc in one day.

Far from bouncing back, the shares of Barclays, RBS, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, UBS, et al, are still in freefall, in many cases down 40pc. Banks matter. They lubricate real activity. It is now clear that most will have to curb lending, possibly by huge amounts. The RBS team fears that credit losses could reach $500bn before this crisis is over. So far, only $40bn is accounted for.

The less rosy view is that the whole global economy is buckling as debt leverage deflates. Central banks have hit the brakes too hard - after causing asset inflation in the first place by fixing the price of credit too low.

If so, America will now conquer market share at the expense of others in a beggar-thy-neighbour 1930s world. This could backfire on Washington, but only if capital flight forces up bond yields. That has not happened yet.

I bet that the US will succeed in exporting its day of reckoning after all."

http://tinyurl.com/2w5q7h

Posted by: moneygenie at November 11, 2007 8:30 PM [link]

I thought I recognized that name. I hit google to verify my memory. Ambrose Evans is a well known nut from the Clinton era.
http://tinyurl.com/27j94g

Posted by: Zenob at November 11, 2007 8:41 PM [link]

Shanghai down 2.83%...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 8:53 PM [link]

thanks to korvus, some numbers to contemplate:

Ticker Last RSI7d RSI7w RSI7m

selected indexes:

QQQQ 50.00 22.88 43.5 59.48
FXI 182.000 30.66 53.27 68.63
EEM 153.600 38.95 56.9 72.25
EWH 21.730 40.98 58.96 71.88
EWJ 13.40 23.37 33.42 33.73
XLB 41.53 39.8 50.5 65.7
OIH 189.190 43.52 53.03 80.2

and the associated ultra-shorts (for those with sufficient data):

QID 40.82 81.28 55.23 32.78
SMN 44.83 58.49 41.73 23.48
DUG 41.40 57.53 44.58 8.49

if you're using bill's rsi-7 daily/weekly/monthly to base your trades, then beyond the ST, it's still quite early in the game...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 9:15 PM [link]

someone last summer brought up (at least the perception of) time compression in the markets (price moves seem compressed into shorter time intervals)...may play out in the broader markets (or 'the business cycle') as well...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 9:39 PM [link]

The Nikkei seems to be brewing up a perfect storm. Looks like everything, including gold and oil, will be opening lower in New York.
http://tinyurl.com/eyg7r

Posted by: Fred at November 11, 2007 9:51 PM [link]

more from todd harrison on mark-to-market vs mark-to-model:

http://tinyurl.com/23wd52

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 10:04 PM [link]

Shanghai now down 4.5% to 5075...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 10:19 PM [link]

Hello all,

Love the discussion... Spent the evening hoisting a few pints with a long lost/new friend from Sweden. Learned quite a bit about VAT (value added tax) and how much they pay for a beer in a bar ($9 for 8 oz!!!). I bought a few rounds as he has kids.

As for the lead miners, I'm bullish on Lundin (wish I knew more lead miners). Jim Rogers book, Hot Commodities discusses lead mining. Not sure if I recall correctly but he says there hasn't been a new lead mine opened in decades. While lead has lost it's two major markets (gasoline and paint) the demand is overwhelming in batteries. There is major upside and the basing is beautiful.

As for the Molybdenum, both PCU and Freeport have reported lower copper mined and lower price. This is copacetic given the runup in molybdenum ($1 per lb to ~$33 per lb over the past several years) and their moly lbs. I LOVE PCU at this price($114). The strikes are something to worry about but those of us who are years deep are pleased. Up 4x still yielding 8%... Copper is in a major pullback. That does not concern me as we are in the beginning stages of a major bull market in base metals(time to buy). Chinese demand on the electrical side is huge given their building a coal power plant per week and a nuke plant per month.

I am looking at lumber companies as these have not had the benefit of a bull market in the underlying commodity. Pointers appreciated...

I have begun to dabble in the ethanol sector as a provision of NAFTA kicks in on Jan 1 that allows Mexican sugar to come into the USA tax free. This should negate the corn/ethanol squeeze that they have been victimized by. PEIX is my fav but it's been diving better than Greg Louganis...

Looks like gold is diving this evening. I'll pick up some more around $805.

Happy trading...

Posted by: DoGood at November 11, 2007 10:20 PM [link]

RE: Broker for Commodity Futures

Thanks Mike. I will probably stick with OptionsXpress (OptionsXpress.ca). The major inconvenience for me is that they do not handle registered accounts.

Posted by: northvan at November 11, 2007 10:31 PM [link]

Wow.......Nikkei now down 576 !

The end of life as we know it? :^)

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 10:48 PM [link]

Bull Hunter,
It's great news if you're all in cash like so many profess. That would not be me! LOL

Posted by: Fred at November 11, 2007 10:51 PM [link]

Ah. I don't know about that Canada stuff. The XpressTrade trade execution seems ok. I'm looking forward to the improved interface features and increased instruments after the merger. It might be a win/win for both sides. But I'll leave that judgement up to the guys who trade a lot.

I actually just dropped in here to note that I'm short EUR/JPY in the forex market and short gold. Both just fell of a little cliff here. Something happening with the Yen or the EUR? The forex news service called it a 'crash' of the pair. Lucky me to be short a pair as it crashes. Too bad I'm just trading micro-lots.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 11, 2007 10:51 PM [link]

Currency Controls Return as Central Banks Fight Dollar Freefall

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad3SyUGo78L0&refer=home

Posted by: brendan at November 11, 2007 11:00 PM [link]

Bill,
Thanks for the amazing WIR. The irreverence and wit throughout were so refreshing. I laughed out loud a few times. And with Asia so weak, it's going to be very entertaining later this morning when the US markets open. I'm starting to think it could be a Black Monday. I just wish I was short but am happy with cash. I feel bad for anyone long right now but to each his own. Plenty of my friends rail on me for trying to market time everything. I'm definitely not right all the time but I have a lot mor fun in the market than they do. Good luck everyone and be prudent!!!

Posted by: Finger Lakes at November 11, 2007 11:08 PM [link]

"Something happening with the Yen or the EUR?"

MikeNYC,

I know zero about forex trading but the US Peso has fallen against the Yen to its lowest level in 18 months.

This is thought to officially cook Jap exports to the US.

Congrats on the great trades. Go get 'em!

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 11:10 PM [link]

BBC reports that hsbc may announce $1B exposure to subprime in USA. HSBC denied to comment. they report Wednesday.

http://tinyurl.com/2zqrlr

The article also states "Barclays denied on Friday that it was about to reveal a $10bn exposure to US mortgage bad debt."

Buckle up.

Posted by: NYUgrad at November 11, 2007 11:14 PM [link]

re Monday- US markets will be open, but will not be a settlement date:

"The schedule of trade dates-settlement dates below reflects the observance by the financial community of Veteran’s Day, Monday, November 12, 2007. On this day, The NASDAQ Stock Market and the securities exchanges will be open for trading. However, it will not be a settlement date because many of the nation’s banking institutions will be closed."

Trade Date Settlement Date Reg. T Date*
Nov. 7 Nov. 13 Nov. 14
8 14 15
9 15 16
12 15 19
13 16 20

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 11, 2007 11:17 PM [link]

Yen carry trade unwinding.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 11, 2007 11:26 PM [link]

Quick Ben! Print up some more Monopoly Money!

Now's your big chance to put the whole world into recession!

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 11, 2007 11:39 PM [link]

Here is the Yen vs. $US chart over the long term with the gold price in $US overlaid:

http://www.flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=1978450058&size=o

Posted by: FranSix at November 12, 2007 12:44 AM [link]

ALOHA !!

moneygenie ... "This could backfire on Washington, but only if capital flight forces up bond yields. That has not happened yet."

FROM PRAVDA
10/18/07
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2czc58

Data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn from all forms of US investments. "These numbers are absolutely stunning," said Marc Ostwald, an economist at Insinger de Beaufort.

Asian investors dumped $52bn worth of US Treasury bonds alone, led by Japan ($23bn), China ($14.2bn) and Taiwan ($5bn). It is the first time since 1998 that foreigners have, on balance, sold Treasuries.

Mr Ostwald warned that US bond yields could start to rise again unless the outflows reverse quickly. "Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign," he said.END

One would think the culprit would be the Chinese getting back at the US Congress, but it was Japan who is leading the way, our biggest Asian ally. Time for some major CPI trickery ... exclude everything but residential real estate prices!!! This is just the beginning ... Is this what Pritchard was afraid of?

Posted by: kaimu at November 12, 2007 1:48 AM [link]

stktrader,

"My only question is why are the ma's a percentage instead of the actual number?"

I prefer to think in relative and not in absolute numbers. Therefore I use percentage values which show how far the stock price has climbed / dropped relative to the SMA values. In that way it is easy to see which stocks are the best candidates for a reversion to the mean.

It's almost the same for the 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, etc. performance values given in relative numbers instead of absolute. It's easier to compare the stocks.

Olaf

Posted by: TradersQuest at November 12, 2007 3:33 AM [link]

The strength in USD and US equity futures and weakness in Gold and Silver this morning is precisely what I had been opining this weekend. This development is the first line in the sand by the Bulls. The bigger issue is not this morning's open in NY, but in the afternoon trading after London closes.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 12, 2007 5:45 AM [link]

November 10, 2007

Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 11/10/2007 6:36 AM ET

Discourse

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