Bill Cara: Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 11/03/2007 7:50 AM ET

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November 3, 2007

Saturday’s Report & Discourse, 11/03/2007 7:50 AM ET

An organized community can be a powerful support system for its members. I think we all agree that the shared wisdom as experienced in this blog is a personal enabler.

As the tool becomes obvious, more of us are participating in the giving and taking, which is why I changed the “Commentary” heading to “Discourse”.

From the Google dictionary: Definition of discourse (verb): to communicate in an orderly fashion; to talk
Examples of discourse:
The scientists discoursed on a conference call for just five minutes but were able to solve three major problems.
The interviewee discoursed so fluently, she was hired on the spot.

Like I did in a published scientific paper in the 1970's, three years ago I talked about the power of the network model, which is a communication system, vs the relational model, which is a top-down control system. I said at the time, in this forum, that I am not a publisher in the traditional sense, but merely one among you, and that I would give to you, and take from you.

Now you see the power of discourse in a community of many-to-many relations. You too are learning how to give and take.

Nobody cares if you live in a student dorm or a $10 million mansion, whether you are male or female, straight or gay, this color or that, this religion or that or none, a youngster or an old-timer. All we in this community care about is what we can share.

Now you see the benefits of social equity.

When I first started blogging, my use of the term “social equity” was questioned. Some people thought I was a socialist. No, they soon discovered; I was just one of you.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SMH 34.25 0.18 0.53% 1.36% -3.87% -10.92% 2.03% -9.65% -7.71% 3.63%

XLU 41.92 0.33 0.79% 0.91% 5.81% 2.49% 13.85% 6.80% -0.71% 16.96%

XLI 40.17 0.31 0.78% -0.32% 1.18% -3.39% 14.02% 0.35% 6.64% 18.18%

IYH 70.70 -0.15 -0.21% -0.86% 0.41% -2.32% 6.38% 3.96% -1.56% 7.56%

XLP 28.01 0.16 0.57% -1.16% 1.01% 0.39% 6.58% 4.32% 2.60% 9.46%

XLB 42.63 0.29 0.68% -1.34% 1.26% -0.65% 23.17% 7.95% 9.53% 27.67%

XLE 75.62 0.90 1.20% -1.73% 1.57% 0.77% 33.65% 10.33% 17.82% 36.55%

XLY 35.69 -0.06 -0.17% -2.06% -0.86% -6.00% -7.35% -4.50% -9.62% -3.23%

IYZ 31.60 0.32 1.02% -2.50% -3.51% -7.55% 6.54% -6.45% -1.80% 10.37%

XLF 31.86 -0.22 -0.69% -5.43% -2.39% -10.93% -13.71% -5.26% -14.45% -9.31%

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ECA 72.48 1.79 2.53% 8.23% 11.25% 15.76% 59.86% 15.38% 34.60% 55.24%

IMO 55.02 2.26 4.28% 6.22% 11.90% 13.33% 54.29% 19.92% 43.99% 60.74%

CEO 207.00 5.00 2.48% 4.65% 15.97% 26.19% 119.58% 77.39% 135.76% 146.11%

SU 108.54 2.39 2.25% 1.93% 4.15% 13.58% 46.85% 18.62% 32.48% 44.91%

PBR 93.30 -0.40 -0.43% 1.88% 15.60% 18.37% 87.24% 43.10% 82.83% 114.53%

TOT 79.22 1.87 2.42% -1.52% 0.10% 1.71% 11.62% 3.18% 5.47% 17.78%

STO 33.43 0.87 2.67% -2.11% 1.67% 3.18% 30.13% 13.55% 15.63% 29.93%

CVX 88.48 -0.56 -0.63% -3.46% -0.88% -4.16% 24.67% 5.47% 12.51% 30.52%

XOM 87.93 -0.57 -0.64% -4.64% -4.57% -3.75% 18.65% 3.23% 10.16% 23.51%

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

RIO 36.38 -0.05 -0.14% 2.48% 9.38% 8.40% 26.23% -25.91% -12.67% 39.17%

RTP 370.73 10.03 2.78% 0.74% 8.67% 6.36% 81.64% 34.27% 49.49% 65.08%

GGB 30.12 -0.19 -0.63% -0.82% 6.43% 6.13% 83.43% 16.93% 48.37% 104.48%

AA 38.56 0.66 1.74% -2.01% 2.99% -0.59% 31.47% 1.80% 10.55% 35.30%

TCK 48.54 0.56 1.17% -2.22% 0.60% -3.80% -29.91% 10.12% -38.18% -32.09%

BHP 83.73 1.30 1.58% -2.82% 1.32% 5.29% 115.41% 33.05% 68.67% 95.63%

TS 51.51 -0.15 -0.29% -4.75% 0.78% -3.47% 6.16% 8.72% 11.49% 25.97%

MT 75.72 0.41 0.54% -7.17% -2.46% -2.92% 85.59% 16.89% 39.40% 80.16%

NUE 57.91 0.00 0.00% -8.69% -2.06% -0.22% 6.26% 14.06% -10.45% 0.85%

PKX 166.40 0.41 0.25% -10.14% 4.42% -12.04% 109.49% 19.55% 55.53% 133.71%

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABB 30.77 0.99 3.32% 3.71% 13.38% 14.09% 72.67% 28.37% 51.35% 110.18%

BA 97.76 1.16 1.20% 1.81% 4.11% -4.39% 9.63% -7.71% 4.19% 23.43%

UTX 75.65 0.93 1.24% 0.28% -0.46% -6.42% 20.44% 1.19% 10.60% 17.60%

GE 40.33 -0.01 -0.02% -0.12% 0.72% -3.45% 6.22% 3.33% 8.09% 16.19%

ERJ 47.88 0.19 0.40% -0.15% -0.13% -0.10% 17.41% 9.39% -1.26% 18.25%

HON 59.35 0.31 0.53% -0.15% 1.77% -0.79% 31.60% 0.51% 6.94% 41.75%

CAT 74.76 1.45 1.98% -0.37% 1.62% -6.93% 22.24% -7.33% 1.85% 23.45%

MMM 84.89 0.99 1.18% -1.44% -2.00% -11.43% 8.47% -4.75% 0.56% 7.62%

FDX 102.43 1.22 1.21% -1.45% -0.86% -3.42% -6.69% -7.63% -4.90% -8.62%

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TM 113.00 -1.45 -1.27% 2.98% 6.20% -3.97% -16.48% -4.71% -6.08% -4.44%

BC 22.13 0.21 0.96% 1.24% 10.65% -8.59% -30.67% -21.39% -32.94% -28.64%

NKE 63.87 0.05 0.08% -1.15% 0.85% 5.83% 30.80% 12.15% 19.43% 37.65%

DIS 33.92 0.12 0.36% -1.34% 0.33% -4.37% -0.82% -1.28% -4.99% 7.00%

SBUX 25.53 -0.30 -1.16% -2.45% -2.18% -4.88% -27.57% -5.16% -18.30% -31.59%

CCL 46.10 -0.70 -1.50% -3.29% -2.43% -9.25% -9.52% 2.67% -5.73% -4.34%

EBAY 35.02 0.02 0.06% -4.42% -4.63% -9.63% 16.08% 5.99% 3.86% 7.65%

JCP 53.29 -0.62 -1.15% -4.86% -3.72% -22.44% -31.73% -22.55% -33.14% -30.73%

WHR 79.13 1.36 1.76% -5.31% -8.14% -16.08% -6.53% -21.53% -30.06% -7.72%

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

ABV 82.48 1.67 2.07% 4.31% 8.61% 2.27% 67.98% 21.51% 36.92% 87.33%

WFMI 48.91 1.70 3.60% 2.54% 3.51% -8.06% 7.54% 20.91% 7.16% -18.65%

DEO 91.75 1.45 1.61% 1.25% 1.61% 1.45% 15.37% 12.12% 7.66% 23.17%

PEP 72.98 0.59 0.82% 0.88% 3.66% -1.03% 16.36% 9.24% 8.89% 15.46%

WMT 44.19 0.16 0.36% -1.01% -1.76% -2.60% -7.07% -5.44% -8.47% -8.49%

MO 72.11 0.23 0.32% -1.18% 2.28% 3.67% 11.08% 7.40% 4.34% 18.10%

KO 60.51 -0.39 -0.64% -1.72% 2.98% 4.20% 24.56% 12.77% 14.80% 29.54%

BUD 50.66 0.25 0.50% -2.20% -1.27% -1.82% 2.93% 1.93% 1.54% 7.29%

WAG 39.11 0.08 0.20% -2.66% 3.33% -0.48% -15.11% -12.72% -12.27% -7.34%

PG 69.55 0.96 1.40% -3.07% -1.77% -1.81% 7.76% 9.87% 11.51% 9.93%

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

UNH 48.94 0.39 0.80% 1.98% 3.14% 2.60% -6.91% 1.20% -9.02% 0.66%

DNA 74.83 1.72 2.35% 0.93% -0.23% -4.41% -8.52% 0.73% -8.89% -8.18%

NVS 52.61 -0.26 -0.49% 0.90% 0.04% -3.11% -9.51% -2.08% -10.10% -13.64%

JNJ 64.78 0.12 0.19% 0.75% 0.86% -2.22% -2.44% 6.14% 0.47% -4.59%

GSK 50.82 0.01 0.02% 0.59% 0.12% -6.01% -5.56% -2.01% -11.89% -5.77%

BMET 45.99 0.06 0.13% 0.24% 0.31% 0.48% 10.90% 1.05% 8.47% 41.68%

AMGN 56.62 -0.62 -1.08% -0.98% 1.20% -0.39% -17.22% 10.07% -12.99% -24.81%

PFE 23.67 -0.28 -1.17% -2.63% -1.66% -7.47% -9.97% -0.75% -11.02% -11.32%

AET 54.38 -0.64 -1.16% -2.68% 2.89% 1.02% 26.82% 7.24% 12.66% 31.58%

BMY 28.88 -0.28 -0.96% -2.92% -1.50% -4.02% 9.48% 0.91% 0.63% 18.02%

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

DB 126.55 -0.50 -0.39% -0.39% 1.24% -6.37% -6.49% -8.44% -17.92% 2.26%

LEH 60.12 -0.38 -0.63% -0.50% 5.07% -6.03% -23.54% -0.55% -20.36% -20.89%

HBC 94.73 -0.79 -0.83% -1.17% 0.88% -4.03% 1.89% 1.59% 1.15% -2.16%

GS 229.60 -10.61 -4.42% -2.68% 5.47% 0.48% 14.39% 22.48% 4.61% 22.53%

CS 63.01 -1.29 -2.01% -4.75% -4.24% -9.48% -10.13% -5.57% -20.03% 1.84%

UBS 49.27 -1.48 -2.92% -8.47% -9.63% -14.68% -19.74% -10.61% -24.72% -17.51%

JPM 43.15 -1.17 -2.64% -8.81% -4.15% -9.31% -10.24% -3.23% -17.89% -8.00%

MS 58.90 -3.52 -5.64% -9.08% -4.92% -14.51% -27.84% -7.80% -30.18% -20.58%

C 37.73 -0.78 -2.03% -11.49% -10.93% -21.88% -31.71% -20.13% -30.52% -24.15%

MER 57.28 -4.91 -7.90% -13.33% -13.55% -25.29% -38.81% -21.05% -37.19% -34.15%

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

SNDK 44.43 0.54 1.23% 8.31% 4.03% -14.72% 6.50% -15.80% 4.54% -5.00%

INTC 26.80 0.30 1.13% 3.32% 1.90% 4.93% 31.70% 10.29% 22.21% 29.59%

ORCL 22.03 0.27 1.24% 3.19% 6.17% -0.68% 25.81% 9.66% 16.81% 20.45%

INFY 50.62 0.70 1.40% 2.84% 3.90% -3.45% -9.32% 2.30% -5.75% -1.75%

ADSK 48.81 1.01 2.11% 2.43% 3.94% -3.46% 20.34% 17.05% 16.41% 35.51%

CTSH 40.90 1.26 3.18% 2.40% 2.20% -4.66% 5.20% -2.62% -3.03% 9.04%

CSCO 32.51 0.33 1.03% 1.91% 3.21% -0.43% 17.20% 7.90% 17.49% 35.18%

ADBE 47.88 0.96 2.05% 1.87% 3.48% 7.26% 19.94% 21.15% 15.35% 27.14%

QCOM 41.34 0.05 0.12% 0.02% 2.56% -4.66% 10.36% -1.67% -6.62% 13.63%

SAP 53.25 0.45 0.85% -0.84% -0.58% -10.10% 0.09% -3.27% 10.91% 8.45%

Table 10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields

US Treasury Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

3 Month 3.85 3.81 3.64 4.20

6 Month 4.02 3.97 3.91 4.22

2 Year 4.07 3.97 3.97 4.00

3 Year 4.11 4.00 4.01 4.01

5 Year 4.33 4.20 4.24 4.14

10 Year 4.64 4.52 4.58 4.46

30 Year 4.87 4.76 4.83 4.77

Municipal Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 3.46 3.39 3.40 3.59

2yr AAA 3.39 3.45 3.49 3.62

2yr A 3.37 3.43 3.47 3.67

5yr AAA 3.50 3.48 3.48 3.60

5yr AA 3.45 3.47 3.49 3.62

5yr A 3.72 3.70 3.70 3.82

10yr AAA 3.76 3.78 3.77 3.99

10yr AA 3.74 3.76 3.78 3.97

10yr A 3.89 3.91 3.90 4.22

20yr AAA 4.29 4.44 4.33 4.59

20yr AA 4.48 4.64 4.73 4.62

20yr A 4.30 4.45 4.33 4.65

Corporate Bonds
Maturity Yield Yesterday Last Week Last Month

2yr AA 4.77 4.68 4.81 4.88

2yr A 4.88 4.84 4.89 4.98

5yr AAA 4.77 4.45 5.06 4.97

5yr AA 5.19 5.06 5.14 5.27

5yr A 5.24 5.13 5.21 5.21

10yr AAA 5.52 5.45 5.38 5.40

10yr AA 5.71 5.62 5.79 5.82

10yr A 5.80 5.68 5.78 5.83

20yr AAA 5.95 5.87 5.96 6.18

20yr AA 6.32 6.25 6.33 6.29

20yr A 6.28 6.21 6.29 6.32

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

TIP 103.99 0.57 0.55% 0.62% 0.99% 2.66% 4.80% 4.00% 3.03% 3.90%

TLT 91.04 0.29 0.32% 0.60% 0.64% 3.13% 2.21% 4.22% 2.94% 1.62%

IEF 85.09 0.23 0.27% 0.25% 0.21% 2.27% 2.91% 3.58% 2.69% 2.49%

SHY 81.37 0.06 0.07% -0.15% -0.07% 0.49% 1.66% 1.42% 1.55% 1.60%

AGG 100.55 0.11 0.11% -0.21% -0.18% 1.70% 0.64% 2.31% 0.50% 0.48%

FRE 48.33 -1.10 -2.23% -8.27% -8.90% -23.81% -28.81% -14.63% -27.08% -28.83%

FNM 52.61 -1.89 -3.47% -12.36% -10.60% -21.83% -12.11% -10.77% -12.05% -9.95%

CFC 14.35 -0.08 -0.55% -17.05% -5.78% -29.14% -65.92% -46.40% -61.49% -62.79%

Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

KGC 20.39 0.93 4.78% 10.82% 20.51% 33.79% 78.55% 61.83% 48.83% 54.94%

BVN 57.76 1.01 1.78% 9.31% 10.12% 18.75% 109.20% 44.26% 70.99% 115.52%

NEM 51.61 2.10 4.24% 8.49% 13.03% 13.28% 16.76% 23.68% 23.56% 12.42%

GG 35.72 1.82 5.37% 6.91% 11.97% 15.75% 30.65% 42.82% 44.67% 36.39%

ABX 45.62 3.12 7.34% 5.97% 9.66% 11.49% 52.93% 37.82% 54.23% 47.78%

AEM 57.40 2.49 4.53% 4.55% 6.91% 10.85% 47.48% 35.76% 60.87% 53.35%

AUY 14.98 0.57 3.96% 3.88% 7.54% 26.31% 21.49% 38.45% 7.69% 38.19%

MDG 40.93 1.57 3.99% 3.80% 6.37% 22.33% 55.69% 53.01% 58.64% 62.42%

GFI 17.76 0.44 2.54% -2.15% -0.28% -1.99% -3.11% 10.45% -3.06% 2.72%

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

IFN 63.35 1.15 1.85% 9.60% 22.53% 16.09% 39.72% 38.77% 55.23% 38.89%

EWC 35.91 0.78 2.22% 3.97% 7.00% 6.94% 45.38% 18.83% 28.43% 45.38%

QQQQ 54.42 0.42 0.78% 0.91% 3.78% 3.03% 25.86% 12.58% 17.23% 29.45%

EWZ 83.10 -0.08 -0.10% 0.85% 9.91% 7.03% 77.94% 29.54% 55.07% 96.92%

TRF 72.83 1.23 1.72% 0.45% 5.02% 3.91% -17.75% 10.10% 3.61% 8.21%

EWU 26.83 0.25 0.94% 0.07% 3.67% 1.71% 13.93% 8.05% 7.45% 16.55%

EWJ 14.15 -0.03 -0.21% 0.07% 1.87% -3.41% -0.35% -0.56% -1.46% 2.69%

IEV 122.41 0.84 0.69% -0.43% 2.78% 1.17% 15.92% 7.14% 5.94% 21.80%

FXI 208.25 0.20 0.10% -0.60% 4.49% 8.69% 78.91% 53.02% 93.11% 140.75%

SPY 151.25 0.22 0.15% -1.54% 1.06% -2.95% 6.99% 2.44% 1.12% 10.58%

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change 1Day
%Change 1W
%Change 2W
%Change 4W
%Change YTD
%Change 3M
%Change 6M
%Change 12M
%Change

MSFT 37.06 0.00 0.00% 5.80% 22.84% 24.20% 24.11% 25.54% 21.07% 28.95%

INTC 26.80 0.30 1.13% 3.32% 1.90% 4.93% 31.70% 10.29% 22.21% 29.59%

BA 97.76 1.16 1.20% 1.81% 4.11% -4.39% 9.63% -7.71% 4.19% 23.43%

MCD 59.02 0.02 0.03% 0.94% 4.61% 4.70% 34.53% 20.47% 17.99% 40.36%

IBM 114.59 0.94 0.83% 0.76% 2.06% -1.47% 17.81% 1.20% 12.10% 24.99%

JNJ 64.78 0.12 0.19% 0.75% 0.86% -2.22% -2.44% 6.14% 0.47% -4.59%

UTX 75.65 0.93 1.24% 0.28% -0.46% -6.42% 20.44% 1.19% 10.60% 17.60%

GE 40.33 -0.01 -0.02% -0.12% 0.72% -3.45% 6.22% 3.33% 8.09% 16.19%

HPQ 52.40 0.90 1.75% -0.13% 1.95% 2.95% 25.90% 8.65% 22.06% 35.79%

HON 59.35 0.31 0.53% -0.15% 1.77% -0.79% 31.60% 0.51% 6.94% 41.75%

CAT 74.76 1.45 1.98% -0.37% 1.62% -6.93% 22.24% -7.33% 1.85% 23.45%

DD 47.96 0.02 0.04% -0.85% 2.33% -3.21% -2.20% 1.74% -5.10% 5.38%

WMT 44.19 0.16 0.36% -1.01% -1.76% -2.60% -7.07% -5.44% -8.47% -8.49%

MO 72.11 0.23 0.32% -1.18% 2.28% 3.67% 11.08% 7.40% 4.34% 18.10%

DIS 33.92 0.12 0.36% -1.34% 0.33% -4.37% -0.82% -1.28% -4.99% 7.00%

MMM 84.89 0.99 1.18% -1.44% -2.00% -11.43% 8.47% -4.75% 0.56% 7.62%

KO 60.51 -0.39 -0.64% -1.72% 2.98% 4.20% 24.56% 12.77% 14.80% 29.54%

AA 38.56 0.66 1.74% -2.01% 2.99% -0.59% 31.47% 1.80% 10.55% 35.30%

GM 36.99 -0.26 -0.70% -2.07% -1.62% -3.17% 25.60% 10.78% 14.03% 6.72%

T 40.42 -0.04 -0.10% -2.51% -2.30% -4.08% 15.65% -0.44% 4.50% 18.81%

PFE 23.67 -0.28 -1.17% -2.63% -1.66% -7.47% -9.97% -0.75% -11.02% -11.32%

MRK 56.04 -1.32 -2.30% -2.67% 5.52% 4.73% 27.31% 8.52% 9.39% 23.44%

VZ 44.38 -0.36 -0.80% -2.68% 0.25% -1.86% 17.35% 2.90% 12.07% 19.98%

HD 30.40 -0.29 -0.94% -3.03% -1.17% -11.16% -25.98% -19.62% -21.55% -18.28%

PG 69.55 0.96 1.40% -3.07% -1.77% -1.81% 7.76% 9.87% 11.51% 9.93%

AXP 58.42 0.03 0.05% -3.71% 2.29% -4.39% -3.21% -4.09% -6.89% 1.67%

XOM 87.93 -0.57 -0.64% -4.64% -4.57% -3.75% 18.65% 3.23% 10.16% 23.51%

AIG 59.12 -0.17 -0.29% -4.88% -6.56% -14.80% -18.06% -7.35% -16.05% -11.34%

JPM 43.15 -1.17 -2.64% -8.81% -4.15% -9.31% -10.24% -3.23% -17.89% -8.00%

C 37.73 -0.78 -2.03% -11.49% -10.93% -21.88% -31.71% -20.13% -30.52% -24.15%

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 3, 2007 07:50:02 AM | Category: Saturday Report

Discourse

Finally, the strength in the stock market in India, coupled with the incredible strength in the Indian rupee, has given rise to a change in "leadership" amongst the world's richest men.

It is no longer Bill Gates, and it is not Carlos Slim. Rather it is Mr. Mukesh Ambani, the chairman, managing director and largest shareholder of India's largest private sector company, Reliance Industries. Such is the power of the dollar's weakness.
– Dennis Gartman
The Gartman Letter

Posted by: moneygenie at November 3, 2007 9:27 AM [link]

Bill,
Your point is well taken, It's amazing to see
the evolution of this community over the last several months alone. Even though the discourse can become contentious at times, by and large, there is a general respect and appreciation of opinion, even as this community grows larger.
I can't begin to tell you how much I have learned
from the many of you, to become a smarter, and more adroit investor. And with the information posted here from Bill, (WIR,Cara 100,RSI,etc.) and the community at large, this is what Social Equity is all about.

Posted by: BruceThomas at November 3, 2007 9:53 AM [link]

Bill,

As you wrote yesterday, "The Cara community has become a virtual investment club. There is no question in my mind that this result has come from trust and mutual respect among the participants. With nicknames and all, who would have thought this possible?"

It is truly amazing, and a testament to the tone that you set here, that a group of mostly anonymous investors participate with such civility and respect on an internet board.

There are VERY few boards on this internet of ours that are not loaded with flamers and jerks of all sorts.

I continue to learn here on a daily basis and appreciate the wisdom offered up by you and the posters.

People helping people........the "real" world should take lessons from what goes on here.

Thank you.

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 3, 2007 10:34 AM [link]

Bill,
No doubt we all benefit in this awesome environment.

The two strong reports last week are less impressive after analysis. Recall that I anticipated a "Surprise in GDP" in my site.
The NFP number was more encouraging, but the trend in employment is clearly down.
I Have a few charts showing that we are at the brink of recession and that Mr. Bernanke is not done with lowering rates.

Posted by: Will Rahal at November 3, 2007 11:17 AM [link]

MikeNYC........

Last night [Nov 2] you made a post at 10:40 PM commenting on my post that was asking if gold was due for a correction.

I really enjoyed reading everything you wrote and I must admit you put the fear of G-d in me when you told the story about the sell off in silver last spring.

Thanks for all your insightful post including those from Tuesday night. I have learn a lot from them and I look forward to reading more of them.

[Hope U see this post]

Posted by: Isaiah64v4 at November 3, 2007 11:20 AM [link]

I have been in contact with some friends who are deeply into number crunching. As they crunch numbers their alarm grows.

They all agree that the magnitude of the current financial crisis is far greater than the S&L crisis of almost 20 years ago. Because information is concealed, nobody can be certain of the true magnitude. My friends estimate that the negative impact on GDP from this crisis will be somewhere between 11% and 18%. They really can't get a good handle on it. They just know that it is big. If members of this community have estimates based on number crunching please post.

What makes this so serious is that the S&L crisis negatively impacted GDP by "only" 6%. That does not mean that the effects of this crisis will be "only" 2 to 3 times worse than the effects of the S&L crisis. I sincerely hope (if I were religious I would pray) that such is the limit. However, my number crunching friends believe that there is a magnifying effect with respect to the financial and social damage that will occur as the result of such a large contraction.

Posted by: lessmore at November 3, 2007 11:20 AM [link]

Bill,
I agree wholeheartedly with the direction you are proposing, and look forward to added features and design elements.
I good friend who is in communication with a number of Chinese manufacturers told me one of them is now accepting only payments in Canadian dollars for their Canadian customers, under the existing price structure for US currency. This could become a major trend. If one company succeeds in implementing this new payment format more will follow, if they have not already... Cheers

Posted by: yaba at November 3, 2007 11:27 AM [link]

california real estate- 35-40% overpriced (ie, about 2002 levels) sounds about right. marketwatch link:

http://tinyurl.com/33ownk

of course, no one knows how it will play out->prices may remain stagnant for the next 10 years, or they could collapse (especially if the non-conforming loan market fails to recover).

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 3, 2007 12:00 PM [link]

the run-up in housing prices accelerated by inflated appraisals?

from the sf chronicle:

http://tinyurl.com/2ob78l

[Pumped-up appraisals "create what I call phantom equity," Faravelli said. "Appraisals are arguably the easiest part of the entire process to tweak. After all, it's just an opinion, and everyone has one."]

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 3, 2007 12:16 PM [link]

Further to the discussion on Russia last night , I read an interesting paper written by Dmitry Orlov entitled, "Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US".
http://www.energybulletin.net/23259.html

It compared employment, housing, families, medicine etc., between Russia and the U.S. and what he saw in Russia and what he foresees in the U.S.

I found it very interesting and frightening.

Posted by: bobj at November 3, 2007 3:39 PM [link]

I rarely post here, but read Bill's blog religiously. I am wondering if the $800 gold price is now going to be the price where gold begins to sell off, or to be contrarian, to take off? What does the Cara community think?

As it is a foregone conclusion for some, Ben is not done cutting rates. He may be talking hawkish, but we all know what's really going on. I have a feeling that we will see gold and silver take-off barring any huge market selloff.

I am currently in SLW, KRY and AEM. Looking to get into GG,KGC and/or BVN soon.

Ray

Posted by: rayg at November 3, 2007 3:45 PM [link]

http://ronsen.blogspot.com/2007/11/carrying-load-what-you-see-and-what-it.html

If I read another non-sequitur Gene Epstein column, my head may simply blow up.

Posted by: Ron at November 3, 2007 3:50 PM [link]

The reason why I believe that the gold and silvers may begin to run here is because the investing community, for the most part, is not in them, they have recently begun to perform well, and the RSIs for most are in the 50-65 range.

btw, Ron, I read your blog daily also. Would love to learn more about some of the charts and lists you post.

Ray

Posted by: rayg at November 3, 2007 3:55 PM [link]

Ray,

As bill and many here have said...Gold has had a nice run..

Not that it can't move higher..and as Bill has stated it will move higher as long as the Dollar continues to fall..

Just keep your stops tight and let the winners run, but be prepared to take the $$$ off the table when the dollar starts to show some strength.

The dollar has been pounded and is due for at least a little bounce, when that happens I believe gold will take a much needed breather.

Posted by: basketguy at November 3, 2007 4:34 PM [link]

Basketguy-yes, the short dollar trade is crowded, but sometimes they run longer than one expects. But, you offer some good points. Thank you.

Ray

Posted by: rayg at November 3, 2007 4:48 PM [link]

The things you learn in fundamental research. Who knew, outside of a few thousand barley farmers, that a battle was raging in Canada over market choice?

basketguy, you are right, oversold and overbought conditions are in effect. But the momentum both these instruments have shown in blowing through support and resistance levels is impressive, no?

I am hearing anecdotal reports that exporters are going gangbusters. A guy I know has a few friends that run exporting companies. This increase will show up in favorable balance of payments numbers.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong: if a 'normal' country has shown a leap in exports, you would see a jump in fundamental support for the currency due to the need for purchasers of those exporters to obtain currency to pay for those goods. But somehow wouldn't the ubiquitousness of dollars, and eagerness of holders to sell them, mean that even a large jump in US exports isn't going to generate the support for the currency which would occur, say, in Brazil or some other, dare I say, more normal country?

Or maybe I'm thinking too hard.

Besides, the real battle over gold begins at $1050, anyway.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 3, 2007 6:12 PM [link]

The 19-20 Dec 08 COMEX Silver bull call spread, which I hold, closed at 575. It still seems cheap. I wonder if any true option rocket scientists out there (you know who you are, if you are one) can tell me what you think about that?

Of course, those guys probably aren't reading blogs at 6:30 on a Saturday night.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 3, 2007 6:17 PM [link]

Here is a short video by Jim Juback on the China bubble: (preceded by short ad)

MSN Money Jim Juback

http://tinyurl.com/2l9ttf

I had assumed that the Chinese stock market crash would set up a run in western markets for a few weeks as money come out of their markets, but we are seeing now that the ABCP and CDO collapses are feeding the markets with cash investments by hedge funds seeking alpha and somehow rescue themselves from losses.

Posted by: FranSix at November 3, 2007 6:22 PM [link]

FranSix, that's the 'scared money' I was referring to, partially at least, in my novella length posting last night. When some fraction of that money hits gold, lookout.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 3, 2007 6:33 PM [link]

So this is what we're looking for, major downturns in off balance sheet financing, leading to corrections and run ups.

The lower tranches went up the scale to the AAA tranches, so a complete rout is in the cards. But people have to extract the capital they have left from a burning household, much of which has been predicated on emerging markets plays.

I expect to see the emerging markets in hyperinflation correct first, and then the Dow later. But it could very well be that all markets as set to correct within the same time frame. A mixed bag of bears is happening so far, with base metals price collapsing or collapsed, uranium in a rout, and speculative plays deflating.

As for bullion prices, a watch should be kept daily on the gold basis, since gold normally would rise along with markets and then correct along with them.

Posted by: FranSix at November 3, 2007 6:54 PM [link]

Hi,

Everyday I constantly monitor the price of Gold, Oil, USD and NDX.

If I see (like I did last Thursday morning) all of these 4 down at the same time, then I know that the market is going down.

You see, in reality these 4 "assets" are functioning pretty much as defensive plays amid all the turbulence.

On the downside, they key is in monitoring 1.490 on the SPX. If we get a close lower than 1.490, then we are going south big time. Untill then, we can allways make a buck daytrading...

Posted by: maromatics at November 3, 2007 7:31 PM [link]

I am reading a lot of comments here and many sound very good. Everybody sounds like an expert. I have learned a lot and thank Mr. Cara for starting this and everyone for the works they are adding....spread sheets, google lists and so on. I could never think of all this stuff on my own in such a short period of time. That is one of the best things about here, the acceleration of my learning curve.

For me it is difficult to evaluate some of the opinions expressed here. How knowledgeable is the writer. Is the writer a trading veteran or a self proclaimed expert just good at putting words together.

I am suggesting that we add a database to this blog where anyone who wants to can post their resume or something like a background sheet with anything they want to share about themselves to the rest of the community.

Posted by: gademsky at November 3, 2007 7:36 PM [link]

RSI dose not seem to be confirming the XAU,s strength, as the XAU and bullion are very overbought, and as Bill said we could expect a pullback at any time. However, you could make the argument that $800 would be a point of real resistance, yet it blew past $800 to $808.50. Some
$14.00 in one day! (Friday) Until the Dollar can gain some traction in the days and weeks ahead, we could see further gains, and dose anybody believe the Fed when they claim they are NOT going to continue to ease ?

Posted by: BruceThomas at November 3, 2007 7:44 PM [link]

Gold indices WAY overbought - weekly charts of XAU, HUI, GDX show prices at the right edge of the well above the upper bollinger band for several weeks = >+2 std. deviations from a sharply rising MA! Move your eye towards the left edge; prices haven't ever stayed that high for long!

Dow Jones Co. - cheerleaders, even before Rupert takes over! WSJ weekend edition makes minimal mention of financials', ABX decline. Barrons' cover story's subtitle: "the party's not over".

Financial Times: BY CONTRAST, FT's huge weekend headline reads, "Investors Savage Bank Stocks" with front-page charts of 3-day price declines in 5 major banks.

Who's dealing with reality? and who's trying to lull readers into "partying"?

Posted by: Jock at November 3, 2007 7:56 PM [link]

Hi,

Not being able to predict the future, at this point I would imagine that the gold bullion is now being "magnetically" attracted by the magic number of 850$, which corresponds to the all-time historical high, and that can come sooner than later.

Once the mark is hit, then we will see...

Posted by: maromatics at November 3, 2007 8:28 PM [link]

"Just to show you what a pathetic joke the Federal Reserve is, last week the Mexican central bank raised interest rates from 7.25% to 7.5% -- and the peso has been far stronger than the dollar lately."

"Look at last Wednesday's report on third-quarter gross domestic product. Our government would have us believe that inflation was running at only 0.8%, which allowed the growth of real GDP to be 3.9%. If the government had calculated the annualized rate of inflation to be 3.9% (probably a low estimate), then real GDP growth would have been zero. One number cannot be incorrect without the other number being incorrect."

Bill Fleckenstein on the rate cut:

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheFedDigsUsADeeperHole.aspx

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 3, 2007 9:03 PM [link]

Clarification is needed on my comment about neither being surprised or shocked at the events of the past 2 months. I want to explain this to those who are new to the blog. If you joined this blog in the last two months you probably would be surprised and shocked. But as a long time reader of this blog I am not, as Bill C. has exposed what we are up against with the self-interests of big banks, brokers and the government. The manipulated 'market' will do as it pleases, not what we want it to do.

Posting to this blog for me is more for my benefit than the community. I find posting here is a statement to burn in my mind and to challenge myself. And at times I do post because I want those who are just readers of the blog to understand that you don't have to be frequently buying and selling (trading) to be part of this community.

If others benefit from my comments, then it has helped more than myself. I expect to be wrong, but if I am wrong then I don't want to make excuses later. Another lesson learned (from another trader) is that you should not follow a stock once you sell it (that is hard when you are a regular reader of this blog). Yes, I saw some of my stocks go up after I sold them. What I look at is how I action my plan. The taking of profits when you feel it is the right time should be considered as a positive outcome. Don't second guess yourself. Just as another poster stated recently that his portfolio was at a new high, I can say the same. I guess it is like the race between the rabbit and the tortoise. I like the slow and steady to the rapid up and down in the value of my portfolio.

============================================================================================

I usually don't comment on another posting, but folks, the following comment from "jock" today is important:

==> "Gold indices WAY overbought - weekly charts of XAU, HUI, GDX show prices at the right edge of the (chart) well above the upper bollinger band for several weeks = >+2 std. deviations from a sharply rising MA! Move your eye towards the left edge; prices haven't ever stayed that high for long!" <==

I had a chance to meet and listen to John Bollinger this morning. What a difference it is to listen to the man in person than read his book(s) on Bollinger Bands. He went over this signal and it is important to watch closely when the above condition jock told us about occurs. It is a warning. Mr Bollinger stated today that he is a trader, he is NOT a forecaster. He said to go out on the internet (financial TV) if you are looking for "experts" that can predict the future. He started the day stating that for example: "Do not ask me what the price of gold will be at 11:30 am next Tuesday. I don't know and I don't need to know". So let us watch this signal and see how it plays out. I will let jock take the lead on this one.

Take for example a rubber band or balloon. We know from past experience what a balloon or rubber band will stretch out to. When the balloon or band get bigger that our previous experience we fell a bit of 'pain' or apprehension that they can't get bigger. But they can. Our expectation or experience does not control the outcome. And we can not forecast what happens next when they exceed the bounds of our experience. Burst, break or just get larger. It could be a long wait.

To those who sat at my table at the meeting today, I hope you did take up my suggestion and are here reading Bill's blog.

And I am not an expert. Just here, like you, to learn from the others who post. [023]

Posted by: BernardF at November 3, 2007 9:53 PM [link]

BernardF,

Your statement about using this blog to challenge yourself is so very true. Every time I write, I try to accomplish two objectives, (i) I try to communicate something of value to students of the market, and (ii) I challenge myself. With respect to the latter, when in the past I would say that I was standing on the RR track in front of the oncoming train, there really was nothing more to the notion that I was taking a risk, but I felt that my analysis and experience warranted doing so and that it would soon be resolved whether or not I was doing the right thing.

I suppose it's a matter of psychology. I suppose a psychologist or psychiatrist might understand that better than I. I just know from years of trading that it is important to be mentally tough, and like steel gets forged, you have to put yourself into the fire repeatedly. It's not easy, but if we don't challenge ourselves, we get mentally soft, and passive, and then we do stupid things, or allow stupid things to be done to us.

The thing with trading is that we are always going to fail. Failure is a constant because nobody's perfect. We just have to win more often than we lose, and when we win, we need to win bigger than our average loss. Yes, it's this continuous focus on risk and the avoidance of losing that some people interpret as my being a perma-bear when I am not.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 3, 2007 10:40 PM [link]

I now have the Leopard working for me on the iMac and also MS Office 2007 on the laptop. Rather than buying a second Office 2007 package, I got the 60-day trial because my original install disks for Office 2003 Pro are in Nassau and I'm in Toronto. I also got a letter this morning advising me that Parallels Desktop would be an excellent choice, so I bought it. My thinking is I may want to run both systems (including an upgrade to Office 2007) on the iMac and Parallels will enable me to do that without having to reboot when switching from one system to the other.

Of course, I may find that Leopard is all I ever need. That would be neat.

The Apple Mac support community is terrific. I asked a question today and the replies I got were exhaustive. People there really do want to help others. It's like, hey we've got 5 pct market share and we want 50. I may be a couple years late, but I'm getting the sense I joined a pretty good team.

Next thing you know, I might even get an iPhone... and be saying nice things about... no, I won't go that far.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 3, 2007 11:02 PM [link]

Bill,
Do you know what happened to Noodle?

I just can't shake the feeling that the banking situation is worse than is being revealed, and he seemed to have a view into the mess.

The paranoiac in me wonders if he was somehow told to shut up about it. Or maybe he just got tired of posting here or something.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 3, 2007 11:12 PM [link]

Bill,

Actually, a couple of weeks ago I purchased an iPod Touch, which is basically the iPhone without the cell phone capability. It's my very first Apple product. In my opinion it's absolutely amazing... Apple and Google have one thing in common in what make them great companies, and it's their striving to making running applications and working on their platforms and devices intuitive. There is no c:command/windows/125322 or whatever to perform basic functions.

The iPhone/iPod Touch is like a mini computer/entertainment device that fits in your pocket, and the touch screen is amazing... anything is possible on the device. (Of course I hacked my Touch to add more applications.)

Posted by: Hoosier at November 3, 2007 11:17 PM [link]

Isaiah, thanks for referencing MikeNYC's 10:40 PM post of yesterday. I would have missed it had you not made reference today.

MikeNYC, thanks for writing it. It was terrific.

Bill, thanks for this blog!!!!!

Posted by: GemmaStar at November 3, 2007 11:25 PM [link]

Just to clarify, I'm bullish on gold (and silver) and long the shares and metal. I think 850 will be shredded like 800 was. The fundamentals are overwhelming.

But that's all just predictions and hot air. I know it, no one has to tell me. It's fun to debate it, and incredible to share information and opinions. But price is everything.

Those calling for corrections are absolutely right to warn about it. Nothing goes straight up forever, and I expect the corrections and spikes to be larger and more violent as we get to 1050. We had a 20 dollar day on Friday. + or - 50 dollar days anybody?

I also fully expect to go short on Sunday night at the open of Tokyo, London, NY or any other time, should it seem like the prices are breaking that way. I don't feel at all conflicted about being both long and short.

My longer term positions I do not worry about. My faith in them mirrors my distrust and disgust with our leaders. Any short term ones, long or short, I will watch like a hawk, day and night.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 3, 2007 11:50 PM [link]

Hoosier,
A friend at work got a Touch. Damn, it's sexy.

I'm too greasy, though, or something. The fingerprint problem kinda ruins it for me. It seems like you gotta wipe it down all the time, or it becomes the iSmudge.

I also have a problem with wires coming off my head into my pocket. It's weird, I know. But that's me. It feels like bondage and always get tangled up. When I next get a multi-function internet tablet (which is what it is, pretty much) it's gotta have stereo bluetooth.

It's not as sexy, but I'll be looking at the Nokia N810 when it comes out in a week or so. The GPS, bluetooth, open platform, Skype telephony, qwerty keyboard, wifi, camera, Linux, etc., etc. just add up to an extremely useful travel device, only a little bigger than, though admittedly, not nearly as cool as, a Touch. I am not cool.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 4, 2007 12:03 AM [link]

Bernard F - XAU above the upper bollinger band

I think the balloon or rubber-band analogy is pretty good. It's over-inflated or over-stretched. You don't know when it will back off. But, there has to be a point where it reverts towards the mean (deflates or de-tensions) at least a bit before resuming its rise.

I looked back to 1991 on the 9 day chart of XAU. This is the only time when weekly price has closed above the upper band for 5 straight periods.

Of course, truly unlikely events CAN happen. 10/11/87 was a 7 std. deviation drop - which "should have happened" only every 6 million years (according to all but Nassim Taleb and Benoit Mandelbrot who reject application of the "bell curve" and "std. deviation" to financial markets).

Apart from wild conditions, when you get a series of >+2 std. deviation events (closing above the upper band) week after week, the odds increasingly have to favor a pullback, a reversion towards the mean - in this case moving average. Because weekly closing prices aren't unconnected, random rolls of the dice. They are a connected trend of prices).

Recent XAU pullbacks from above the upper band:

Mid-May to Mid-June '06 - 29%
Mid-July to Mid-Aug '07 - 21%
Mid-November to Mid-December - 13%?

Who knows when, how much, or even if? Still, it does help to get a sense of where we've been and where we really are. Maybe just because it loosens up the mind towards probable futures.

Anyway, that's how it seems to me. Maybe some with real knowledge of math and statistics will have something to contriubute here.

BTW, Bollinger for years appeared on CNBC, and always put his work into perspective. A good guy!

Posted by: Jock at November 4, 2007 1:29 AM [link]

Bernard F - correction re XAU

2nd para. should read:

"I looked back to 1991 on the 9 day chart of XAU. This is the only time when 9-DAY price has closed above the upper band for 5 straight periods."

Posted by: Jock at November 4, 2007 1:37 AM [link]

I like many other non-participants, have been surprised at the recent growth of postings and the shifting/improving balance of content and tone.
AS a newbie (expat in asia) brevity is in order :-
1) a couple of days catch-up on the discourse is now a daunting task, so any labelling, first line repeat in title etc. would be helpful. I think Bill and others have flagged this already.

2)WGDFF
the hedged loan facility is certainly harmful to future earnings but might have been unavoidable for the company at this stage. what other collateral do people suggest?
the prelim annoucement was on 30 march, followed by details on 14 june. the repeated story in the 1 november quarterly seemed to remind the market (efficient market NOT at work)that 40% (5,500 oz.) of estimated monthly production is being sold at $801 for the next 78 months as from july 08.
so $343 mn of forward sales has allowed a drawdown of $87.3 mn from the $105 mn facility and is needed to complete the Mesquite expansion.

i cant argue against taking profits in WGDFF but the RSI 7 are 69.11 daily (and crossing down) and 90.52 weekly (above 70 since early sept.)
macd is still positive and PnF charts are ok. prices are crawling up the bollinger band but only a warning not a signal.

fingers on sell button -yes!

my barometer on gold is akin to MikeNYC's comments on nov 2 late evening.

3) CPI
if official figures are so unbelievable and discredited, why do TIP prices appear to believe them. TIP 10 years real yield is 1.92% and 10 years TNX yield 4.29%.
so TIP holders expect inflation to be 2.37% pa for 10 years.
is this credible? 'fear money' demand should decrease the real yield and indicate a higher expected inflation. can anyone enlighten?

Again thanks to Bill and company for making this a unique blog.

robertcw

Posted by: robertcw at November 4, 2007 3:19 AM [link]

robertcw and others,

The dynamic that has occurred here, I feel, is that the participants are growing in realization that the need to be independent and objective in one's perspective overrides any fear of being labelled unpatriotic, doomsayer, conspiracy theorist, or whatever.

In fact, we know who we are -- we are people of the world who are focused on protecting and growing our wealth. Our task is not to tell stories (ie, synthesis), but to investigate (ie, analysis) and to act on prices.

We can do that best as a global community of like-minded persons, so we connect through tools such as the Internet and discourse. The "growth of postings and the shifting/improving balance of content and tone" is a natural development of our need and desire to improve those tools.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 7:51 AM [link]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north582.html

Summary: The Fed's mission? Save the system from itself.

Posted by: Ron at November 4, 2007 8:43 AM [link]

A couple days ago, I opined that a Mac newbie would have difficulty organizing files vs the MS Office. Not so. Once I loaded Leopard and discovered how to create directories with sub-folders, I truly feel I am better organized this morning than I EVER WAS with MS. Yes, in a single day. I am so enthused with this system that I am busy porting over files from the Windows laptop. I admit to not even having started the WIR... but I will.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 9:52 AM [link]

Optionetics.com
AU Editorial: The Glory of Gold
Friday November 2, 8:00 pm ET
By Tom Scollon

Gold attracts a disproportional level of interest. Gold and gold stocks weigh minutely on the market compared with, say, base metals. Part of my early morning routine is to check the overseas markets. Finding information on overnight gold movement is easy; finding commentary on, say, copper is tough.
Such is the fascination with gold that it often prompts commentators to become a little starry eyed when forecasting the future price. We see quite fantastic projections like US$2000 and US$10,000. All may well be potentially true, but taking advantage is in the timing.
Many years ago we heard projections like $US1000 and thought they were ludicrous. Perhaps such levels are a real prospect now and not just a miner talking up his book.
When might we see these kinds of numbers? Let’s take a look at the ProfitSource chart:

click here for more detail
Optionetics.com
AU Editorial: The Glory of Gold
Friday November 2, 8:00 pm ET
By Tom Scollon

click here for more detail
http://tinyurl.com/2hjpfr

This is a 60-week Elliott chart but you can lose a lot of money following a weekly chart. In my view its primary purpose is to provide the big picture.
You will note there are three Wave Five projections – one at about $840, the second at $940 and the third a tad under $1080. I will not put a wager on hitting these precise levels but they offer useful guidance.
Initial Wave Fives generally have a high probability of being met. The second one is less likely and the third even more unlikely – though I have seen it happen.

Note the Fibonacci time projections of 2010. Well I could grow a mo by then! But also note that Wave Four could take gold back to the mid 600s.
Don’t you just love technical analysis? Clear as mud. Actually it is telling us that the price of gold is going to go up and go down. And that is how we make money.

Enjoy the ride!
Tom Scollon
Chief Analyst
Trading Tutors Team

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 10:27 AM [link]

ok, so this is what happens everytime i post:
I write or paste, click on post and get sign in page so I fill in username and password then click continue and agree to share email and get to the tiny print page. so I use go back in browser until I get to Post a comment with the little box and Preview/post under it. then I click preview because if I click post then the TinyURL changes to long. I delete the long URL and repaste the tinyURL then click post. Yet still I end up with double posts or jumbled like the previous one.

If anyone has a handle on this please post the step by step???

Sorry for the previous.

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 10:40 AM [link]

ALOHA !!

Ron ... The system cannot be saved!! As long as humans have greed and egos the fiat monetary system can never simulate a gold standard, a gold backed monetary system. The FED will do all in its powers to divert attention from that simple truth. The manipulation of markets will continue until the system collapses totally. The lipstick is already on the Euro pig, next is the Amero pig ... After that collapse. The global citizens will have to stand up to the money masters in order for the fraud that is "fiat" to cease breathing. Rebellion against fiat governments is the only recourse We The People have, but for that to occur people have to understand what money is and what constitutes "real money". Few people now want to educate themselves on installing a big screen TV, so they hire FireDog, complete with sanitary latex gloves. What chance is there the average American will want to understand money?

GOVERNMENT IS ONLY AS HONEST AS ITS MONEY ...

Posted by: kaimu at November 4, 2007 10:56 AM [link]

moneygenie, I always use the Preview function first, then Post when I get to the second/preview page - never have the problem you mention, though, now that I've said it, I probably will! :-)

Posted by: writersblock at November 4, 2007 11:10 AM [link]

Robert RE:WGDFF

Either hedge or dilute they had no choice. But the hedge all but guarantees that 90% of extraction expenses for all the ounces are covered with the $801 hedge. Leaves a lot of room for blue sky on the other 100K production per year with little expense.

If WGDFF gets to 6 bucks a 20 million share float could retire the hedge. Better than the dilution required when WGDFF was at 2.14 or so when WGDFF completed the debt financing.

Posted by: golden7 at November 4, 2007 11:44 AM [link]

Anybody double posting might try logging out through various browsers and locations you might have logged on, but forgotten about.

Re: Big Market Collapses

Many markets topped out in Feb, 2007, but that fact has not been recognized. We are also seeing enveloping bear markets in the various base metals, and rising inventories. The U.S. housing market is said to have topped in 2005. The mark to model credit markets have collapsed in Q3 Q4 of this year.

So I don't think we are modelling our hypothesis correctly if we say that it all comes down at once. Its been a mixed bag of bears so far.

Posted by: FranSix at November 4, 2007 12:02 PM [link]

Hello,

Does anyone know a charting tool where i can plot RSI(7) Daily, Weekly and Monthly in one chart ? Can i do it with Metastock or Wealthlab ?

Thanks.

Mark

Posted by: toptrader9 at November 4, 2007 12:03 PM [link]

moneygenie,

If you click on "Post" without being signed in, it will reprimand with a message that reads:
"""
Comment Submission Error

Your comment submission failed for the following reasons:

Comment text is required.

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

URL:
Remember me? YesNo

Comments:
You are not signed in. You need to be registered to comment on this site. Sign in
"""

Click the bottom-right "Sign in" link, log in and then paste (or type) your comment text into the window. Click "Preview". If it looks good to go, then click "Post".

This cumbersome login seems due to an error that somehow intruded into the user registry system several months ago. The good thing is that once logged in you can post repeatedly without having to go through the initial routine.

Posted by: johojo at November 4, 2007 12:15 PM [link]

moneygenie, re posting / typekey log in

The other thing I do is on the Typekey login screen I check the box for "keep me logged in for 2 weeks". That way when I open Bill's site each day I see my name at the bottom which shows that I'm actually logged in.

""Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, Quasi. Now you can comment. (sign out)""

Its a bit misleading, but if you don't see your handle then you really aren't signed in and will have to go thru the process again.

Posted by: Quasi at November 4, 2007 12:32 PM [link]

Mark/toptrader9,

Re RSI(7) Daily, Weekly and Monthly in all-in-ne chart, I use BillCara2.com, but that requires a subscription. I will, when I get time, have it changed by John cheng at Investertech.com. Also, at some point, I will add that facility to the blog.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 12:43 PM [link]

We’re all students of the game. Some weekend observations.

Uranium went from $75 to $85 Oct 3 to Nov 2. It increased $5 this week. Is the bottom already in? One year chart:

http://tinyurl.com/25bczp

_____________________________________

China expects to import $900 million worth of diamonds this year.

http://tinyurl.com/3b6yqq

Just like expanding demand from China affects oil, agriculture, technology, etc., jewelry (like diamonds and platinum) comes into consideration.
_______________________________________________

Speaking of hedging:

ANGLOGOLD TO GET RID OF HEDGE BOOK - Charlotte Mathews
Source: Business Day
Posted: 02/11/2007 ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI has indicated that it will get rid of its hedge book after the market value of its commitment rose by 21% in the September 2007 quarter. The firm is investigating several methods to achieve this goal in order to improve margins as the hedge book sliced 9% off its revenue for the relevant period. Its net hedge delta grew to 10.58 million ounces due to a $96 per ounce increase for spot gold.

Posted by: Seamus at November 4, 2007 12:45 PM [link]

Nice that you are enjoying Leopard, Bill, and that you find the Mac community helpful. Be careful though. Apple products can sometimes lead you down the garden path and then break your heart.

Posted by: Denny Phelps at November 4, 2007 1:05 PM [link]

In the base metals, if we go by this chart, it appears as if we haven't yet reached the bubble stage, and that the peak runup is yet to come:

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/gfms-5y-Large.gif

It could very well be that we will see a stage III runup, but that's something that's hard to predict. We are seeing higher lows all the time, just the same. Inventories have increased while base metals prices have decreased, except for Lead.

http://kitcometals.com/

By contrast, oil prices have had a stage I peak, a stage II correction, then a bubble price run-up.

What is important to remember is that if bullion did have value as a currency, then it would differentiate itself from base metals and oil prices.

We have seen major discoveries in the base metals, so this may sustain that market for some time longer until people realize that new supply is at hand and prices are out of line.

Posted by: FranSix at November 4, 2007 1:09 PM [link]

Analyst Receives Death Threats For Downgrading Citigroup:

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20071104&ID=7756737

Anyone surprised?

Posted by: Bull Hunter at November 4, 2007 1:38 PM [link]

Anyone hassling her at this stage is in serious trouble if her husband gets wind of it.

To continue with $WTIC: Oil prices are very overbought at this point, but could move higher, especially due to the unsettled waters in the straits of Hormuz. By all rights, oil prices should come off here, but a simple fiboannci projection makes me think we still have a ways to go:

http://tinyurl.com/23qdbz

Oil prices could correct to $70 (89-week MA).

Notice nobody is saying oil is overbought, but this is the first thing mentioned about gold.

Posted by: FranSix at November 4, 2007 1:51 PM [link]

noticing the comments on gold in here, fwiw the buying has certainly been broad based across gold and silver stocks as well the past few weeks on a breadth basis, my tracking has shown gold stocks at +49% breadth and +71% the week prior and silver stocks +60% this week and +100% the week prior, both really outperforming...more upside ahead imho...

cheers,
ralph
http://successfulonlinetrading.com/blogs/

Posted by: RalphSE at November 4, 2007 1:52 PM [link]

PM indices -

The only silver index I have found Worden's XSLV is MUCH less extended than the gold indices. XSLV weekly has just reached (not exceeded) the upper bollinger band for just two weeks. Maybe that makes silver stocks (with tight stops) the better bet at this point.

Posted by: Jock at November 4, 2007 2:38 PM [link]

Predicting which market is next to come off significantly is going to be difficult.

I don't think I've seen any predictions even as far as the ABCP and CDO market crash, except that it had to coincide with a general market sell off.

The off balance sheet mark to speculation value of CDOs containing lots of pension fund money is a huge market, yet no headlines.

Posted by: FranSix at November 4, 2007 4:08 PM [link]

Fransix -

I think you're onto the big picture. Subprime is just one of several areas of leverage and speculation with unknown losses throughout the financial sector.

Posted by: Jock at November 4, 2007 6:00 PM [link]

To add some further comments to "the dynamic" (tm? lol)on this board. First I am a real noob to investing and even more so in trading.

I found Bill's site during the CNBC Million$ challenge. I had "purchased" KRY for the challenge after seeing it listed as active. Then in doing dd on the company saw a note on Yahoo's msg board that "Bill Cara wrote that KRY....." So I came here to read.

The comments here from both Bill and the others in the community were (and remain) a revelation to me.

Needless to say, I now spend FFFAAAARRRRRR more time here reading and learning than I ever spent reading the crap that is spouted all over the yahoo boards.

Also, aside from just absorbing knowledge, I find that I have no hesitation in posting a question or comment. Behind that is a feeling that the response I may see will be reasoned and any thoughts I might share will be welcomed rather than ridiculed.

Bill wrote earlier regarding the power of a network community over a relational, downward controlled community. I strongly agree, and think that part of that comes from "the community" feeling safe in annonimity. A larger part, though comes from the example set by community leaders.

Bill obviously, Kaimu, Jock, and other frequent posters constitute (in my mind anyway!) "board leadership" and they all unfailingly welcome new, inexperienced folk to this board in friendly tones, choosing words with care (text-only is THE most easily misinterpreted communication medium) and freely offering assistance, information and resources (time/knowledge etc).

I'll end with a comment the it is truly amazing to experience and I have learned (and continue to learn) a great deal about finance in a few months.

Thank you, Bill and everyone else.

PS. while I can't add to the financial knowledge here (I am only an egg), I am happy to answer any questions you may want to know about international freight forwarding or logistics!

Posted by: reenzo at November 4, 2007 6:58 PM [link]

Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC) On Nov 2: 20.39
UP 0.93 (4.78%)

Did anyone see this quote or is in the MONEY? Am left with my mouth open,when did this happen!! So, I'm staying in cash and wait for gold @7.50 or $7.40. If it goes to $1000.00 next week, then I'll get a job.....LOL

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 7:11 PM [link]

Shanghai up 5.54% to 6097 on Saturday (Nov 3)?:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC

this is the twilight zone, right? ;)

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 7:21 PM [link]

Robert Shields, Wordy Diarist, Dies at 89 By DOUGLAS MARTIN
http://tinyurl.com/3xuas2

Citigroup Names Rubin as Chairman and Plans More Write-Downs
By ERIC DASH
Published: November 5, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/yw6ohp

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 7:37 PM [link]

Oil is king – but for how much longer?
Last Updated: 11:21pm GMT 03/11/2007
As the price of crude hits new highs, Sylvia Pfeifer looks behind the scenes to discover where the market will end up once the speculative froth has washed away
http://tinyurl.com/yoxo4k

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 8:14 PM [link]

Former Goldman Sachs head honcho and US Admin chief financial honcho is now head Citigroup honcho.

Well now that the G-men have the US Admin, the Fed, Canada, Italy, the NYSE and HB&B wrapped up, what say you the People's Bank of China?

Is this not bizarre?

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 8:24 PM [link]

Talk about weird? CIBC just paid Oppenheimer $100 million plus set up a $1.5 billion credit line for them to take their credit market fiasco off their books. Does this make Oppenheimer the next candidate for Chapter 7? What deferred payment 5 years out? Sounds like a set up to me. If I were working at Oppenheimer, I think I might be looking for a new job.

CIBC Announces Sale of Part of CIBC World Markets U.S. Business

TORONTO, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) today announced that it has agreed to sell to Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY: NYSE) its U.S. domestic investment banking, equities, leveraged finance and related debt capital markets businesses. The transaction also includes CIBC's Israeli investment banking and equities business, and certain parts of other U.S. capital markets-related businesses located in the UK and Asia.

CIBC will retain its other U.S. wholesale businesses, which include real estate finance, equity and commodity structured products, merchant banking and oil and gas advisory, as well as the balance of its U.S. debt capital markets, Asia and U.K businesses.

CIBC will also maintain its corporate lending capability and its ability to distribute Canadian equities and fixed income products in the U.S. and international markets on behalf of its Canadian clients.

Under the terms of the agreement, CIBC will receive a deferred payment on the fifth anniversary of closing based on the performance of Oppenheimer's combined capital markets business over that five-year period. CIBC will also receive warrants exercisable for one million Oppenheimer shares at the end of the five year period.

As part of the transaction, Oppenheimer will borrow $100 million from CIBC in the form of a subordinated loan. In addition, CIBC will provide a warehouse facility, initially up to $1.5 billion, to a newly formed Oppenheimer U.S. entity to finance and hold the syndicated loans for U.S. middle market companies. Underwriting of loans pursuant to the warehouse facility will be subject to joint credit approval by Oppenheimer and CIBC.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 8:44 PM [link]

"Cough World Bank cough."

You forgot one. I'm sure there are more.

Let's start a "what else do 'former' Goldmen run?" list. Anybody else got one?

reenzo, welcome aboard. Anytime you want to talk shipping, you will find ears here. Cramer had the head of his "favorite dry shipper" Diana, I think it's called, on the other night. Cramer kept pumping him for a look ahead, and 2 or 3 times all the guy would say is "in the short and medium term, things look good." It looked like Cramer was going to cry as the credits rolled. "I don't feel very good about that now."

The Dry Baltic is at all time high, though I think I recall it tool a little dump the other day. Does that mean times are good, or are sky high those rates getting eaten up on the other end by inflating commodity expenses?

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 4, 2007 8:46 PM [link]

Of course, I meant:

"or are those sky high rates getting eaten up on
the other end by inflating commodity expenses?"

Please pardon the dyslexia there.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 4, 2007 8:49 PM [link]

Opec 'not to blame' for oil price

http://tinyurl.com/3bo4wv

Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, president of Opec, said producers would always step in to meet shortfalls, but a 34 per cent surge in prices since mid-August was driven by speculative investment and political tensions.

Ps: this is all stuff I've been reading and think some might like to have a look.

Hope I'm not clogging the blog. Bill, feel free to block delete as fitting.

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 9:01 PM [link]

Bill u beat me to the CIBC World Markets story as I was just trying to sign in to post it. My first thoughts were that it sure seems a convoluted deal and that it seems like another move in the financial services sector to try and shimmy and shake around the problems plaguing it.

Posted by: DancingWithBulls/Bears at November 4, 2007 9:10 PM [link]

"here is the list that gives daily price on all Indian ADRs"

http://religareonline.com/stock_prices.asp

Thank you Bala

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 9:43 PM [link]

SSE- opens down 1%...Saturday numbers had to be a prank..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 9:46 PM [link]

2nd_ave

I was going to say something earlier because when I saw your posting, I immediately went to both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and saw flat to negative prices. But then decided a California Merlot was the preferred direction I ought to take after another long day at iMac school.

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 4, 2007 9:50 PM [link]

yeah..for a second i thought maybe they inserted PetroChina into the index without telling anyone:

http://tinyurl.com/2ptwzv

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 9:56 PM [link]

this is almost too hard to believe.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afq.WPd_zCO4&refer=home

Posted by: brendan at November 4, 2007 9:56 PM [link]

How are speculators to blame when the reserve numbers came in so low last week? I just don't understand that argument.

If 'speculators' were 'speculatin' oil up to unaturally high prices, how come oil useage keeps climbing?

Oil production is flat for the past few years, and demand is up 2%/year, amid a rise in geopilitical risk and the debasement of currencies worldwide. Speculators don't do any of that, except they often are pretty goood at looking ahead and placing bets accordingly.

OPEC screams about 'speculators' while pocketing crazy profits.

The North Sea production is reportedly on the verge of collapes. Cantarell is pumped full of more water than a puffer fish, just to get the last bits out. Mid-East production is down. Oil discoveries are lagging use since about 1980.

Someone tell me what I'm missing here? I don't get it.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 4, 2007 9:59 PM [link]

Bill
"CIBC just paid Oppenheimer $100 million plus set up a $1.5 billion credit line for them to take their credit market fiasco off their books....."

Very interesting, they are really starting to get creative here. It reminds me of when I worked in the telecom industry back in the bubble. Nortel and all the others were having problems getting customers to purchase new equipment at a time when the customer hadn't even paid for the old equipment yet. So they created "vendor financing", loaning customers the money to make new purchases. Sort of like a house of cards, financing your own production, OK in the short term but if you can't collect the whole thing collapses. And we all know what happened to many of those companies when telecom crashed.

So now CIBC is paying people to take problems off their hands and giving them a line of credit on top of that, and the collateral for all this is something which might or might not happen in the future and be worth ?? Sounds like they are desperate to curb the bleeding at any cost.

Posted by: Quasi at November 4, 2007 10:01 PM [link]

Corzine, Gov of New Jersey, ex-Goldman.

Bain Capital has Massachusetts, in Mitt Romney, and is in striking distance of the presidency.

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 4, 2007 10:04 PM [link]

Hang Seng below 29K

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 10:08 PM [link]

make that 29.9K

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 10:14 PM [link]

2nd. If you can please look at this site and let me know if you think it is live or not? I saw financials at +1000 red at one point.

Is this what you and Bill are talking about? or am I on another planet!!!

http://tinyurl.com/2fnrex

Thanks

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 10:50 PM [link]

mg- no, it was yahoo finance..maybe i should have posted a screen shot instead of a link, but it showed a close of 6097 for the SSE on nov 3 (which, of course, does not normally trade on a saturday)..components of an index can change, but normally plenty of notice..

for some reason, your link isn't displaying any numbers at this time..

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 11:03 PM [link]

moneygenie:
your link is a live data feed - java enabled applet.

2nd_ave:
make sure your java (JRE) is installed and working.

Posted by: sergio at November 4, 2007 11:08 PM [link]

MikeNYC "Oil Speculators ???..."

I hear ya Mike, my thoughts exactly and why I'm long oil / gas and energy in general. It will and has been a bumpy ride but the trend is up, supply & demand. Of course the price is also all over the place depending on which currency you decide to price it in. This also makes and charting TA difficult as the analysis changes by currency.

Peak oil ? well I have to admit there will be oil to be found for a long time to come. However I also know all the $40 oil, lite sweet, lying close to the surface, next to the pipeline, a few miles from the customer, is basically all gone. With very few new large discoveries demand in the last few years has been met by sticking more straws into the same old pools, depletion rates are accelerating almost everywhere.

As for those guys pocketing big profits, well things are up a bit but I also know those US peso's you get for a barrel don’t go as far as they used to when you try to spend em. If we could chart value for a barrel of oil instead of USD the chart would look quite different. The headlines talk about the huge profits in big oil and they should be taxed more, well they never talk about the margins these guys are making, not much really for the risk they are taking. If I really want to get ticked off I just have to think about the margin the corner coffee shop is making when they charge me $2.50 for a cup of black coffee. Or the margin Microsoft makes when I'm forced to upgrade to a new operating systems which is worse than what I have.

The weekly EIA inventory numbers and the long term predictions the talking heads make about them is a joke. The long term story is based on long term trends which are well established and not about to change any time soon.

The other major area of concern is processing, nobody wants a refinery in their back yard, county, province, state, country etc etc. Well we are very close to the edge in NA, here in Ontario there was a minor hiccup in a refinery for a couple of days, well it only took that long for gas stations to totally run out of gas. Where I live many stations were shut down for a couple of days.

We have a major problem with energy in general (our lifestyle) which most people just refuse to acknowledge. I don't really see any major changes coming until we start to have brownouts (electrical) and heatouts (natgas), then things will start to be addressed. I see things getting quite bad for a very long time, there are no quick fixes.

Posted by: Quasi at November 4, 2007 11:08 PM [link]

sergio- thank you...and the HSI financials are in fact showing -1127...with the HSI itself down over 900 points...

Posted by: 2nd_ave at November 4, 2007 11:26 PM [link]

MikeNYC "Oil Speculators ???..."

Quasi,MikeNYC,

"the manhattan project", was a fix, for American rise to Power.

The Middle East will become intolerable for the western world at some point and "a project" will be developed. By the new kid on the block or if we have not completely lost our way, maybe the dream will not die.

Posted by: moneygenie at November 4, 2007 11:57 PM [link]

ALOHA !!

Just some thoughts on Merrill Lynch and Citibank ... and even EBay!

I recall buying into Enron puts when Skilling left Enron. I made a lot of cash on that! Now I see both CEOs of Merrill and Citi leaving. Both of these companies lead the way in toxic derivatives exposure.

ON MERRILL
When the CEO bypassed the Board and went right over to Wachovia(another BIG derivatives bank)to get rid of either part of Merrill or all of Merrill he was chastised by the Board for going behind their back. Let that go and think about why he went to a much smaller bank to buy the largest investment bank in the World? Commentators came out saying it was a ludicrous deal since Merrill was so much bigger in value. But what if the Merrill CEO knew what was coming down the line and knew that Merrill's "future" value would be something Wachovia could handle with some assists from the FED and the other HB&B players. It seems obvious that if there were no exposures to massive derivatives then the CEO could be considered whacko! But he's not! In fact in the long run he is doing MER a favor! Thats a BIG red flag!

ON CITIBANK
Wow ... they just keep piling up the losses! They are sitting on the short side of some $35trillion of credit default swaps, which none have come to the surface yet. According to Jim Sinclair those are next in line.

In essence both these derivatives behemoths wrote default insurance on some crap loans and some prime loans that are headed for the crapper! This whole scenario worked well while the "FLIP THIS HOUSE" mentality was hotter than hot and real estate values were skyrocketing daily! Now on the downside they are stuck with bets nobody wants to be a counterparty to!

I had a conversation with a trader pal of mine in the San Francisco, CA area and he said people and businesses are fearful and not wanting to extend themselves with real estate loans or any loans. When you have an economy whose existance depends on "credit" you cannot afford to have people and businesses fearful of overextending themselves. The FED thinks lowering rates will cure that. It won't! It won't because sources of income are drying up ... sources like "real" jobs and home ATMs and credit cards and the latest rising trend 401k self loans. The next phase is liquidation of personal assets. Storage facilities are becoming very popular places for "stuff" ... When you default on a home loan then you must move your stuff somewhere. That's when EBay will flourish most!

For the big US HB&Bs the OPM is running out! Get ready for Congress to unleash Social Security onto Wall Street. Bush has already gone there ... It will pass Congress and AARP will condone it once baby-boomers get desperate enough. What's left? The average American has no savings!

Posted by: kaimu at November 5, 2007 1:16 AM [link]

In the same vein aa your SS comment:

John Crudele (NY Post business writer) has repeatedly called for allowing retirement accounts to be used for housing downpayments as a way to boost home prices. As if dumping your retirement into overpriced housing you can't afford to begin with is a good idea.

One thing about selling all your stuff onto ebay: someone else has gotta have the dough to buy that junk!

Posted by: MikeNYC at November 5, 2007 1:35 AM [link]

Re the Bloomberg article about PetroChina being the first company valued at over $1 trillion, I'll quote an associate of mine:

"I read it in HK a few days ago. It is a little misleading. They are using the price of the A shares which represent only about 10% of the float instead of the H shares on HK. Moreover most companies only have a small % public float. What would happen if the state sold down to no more than 50% of all listed public enterprises? You would hear the sound of the balloon popping from here!"

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 5, 2007 5:36 AM [link]

Day of reckoning!

http://tinyurl.com/2c7dsb

Posted by: Bill Cara at November 5, 2007 5:46 AM [link]