The DJIA (+51.70), S&P 500 (+6.43), and Nasdaq Composite (+3.43) got some leadership from the Energy and Materials sectors as Crude Oil and Gold prices were pumped on rumors that the Fed was in emergency session and would drop rates between meetings.

The Housing Starts report showed a month/month gain of +3.0 pct for October, which reversed the -11.4 pct M/M decline in September. October building permits, an indicator for construction this winter, plunged -6.6 pct to a 1.178 million annual rate, suggesting further woes in the US housing market.

On the busy earnings front, after the bell Monday, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) reported a +28 pct rise in 4Q earnings to $2.16 billion vs $1.7 billion a year earlier, which set up the rally attempt from over-sold conditions of the prior day. Then, along came Freddie !!! Freddie Mac (FRE) reported a 3Q loss that almost tripled from the prior year, falling to a loss of $2.03 billion vs a loss of $715 million a year ago. Target Corp (TGT) 3Q earnings dropped -4.5 pct to $483 million vs $506 million a year earlier. Office Depot (ODP) 3Q earnings fell -9 pct to $117.5 million vs $129.1 million in the prior year’s 3Q. Retailer Nordstrom (JWN) reported 3Q earnings jumped +22 pct to $165.7 million, which set up a short-covering rally, but its 4Q per-share earnings outlook is at $0.50 vs the previous forecast of $0.60-0.64, and next year doesn’t look favorable either.

Crude Oil and Gold prices rallied over $98/bbl and $800/oz as the $USD tested new all-time lows vs the Euro.

The US Treasury yields bounced up with the 10-year now at 4.098 pct. But the talk is now that the 10-year yield will fall to the previously unfathomable three handle, which seems to conflict with the present high levels of US CPI.

Going into yesterday, Asia-Pacific equity markets finished moderately higher, and later Europe closed stronger as the FTSE 100 gained +1.73 pct, the DAX +1.58 pct, and the CAC 40 +1.36 pct.

Early today, however, there is a red sky in the morning as traders in both Asia and Europe sold off shares.

December DJIA futures are presently (7:30am ET) down -110 at 12950 in what is shaping up as a negative session.
This morning, the 10-year Treasury yield is down, and the $USD fell during the night to a low of 74.953 !!! before rebounding to 75.313, presently at 75.249. Spot Gold and Silver are down -5.44 and -0.09 to 798.24 and 14.59 respectively. Jan e-miNY Crude Oil is at 98.10, and holding.

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Comments & Outlook

Rumors, I think, are pushing the $USD down and oil and precious metals prices higher.

During yesterday’s session, it became obvious to me that a handful of the institutional favorite oil and gold stocks along with the related commodity prices were being pumped right at the time there was talk of an emergency Fed meeting calling for lower rates.

At times like this we can all surmise as to what’s really happening. Not being in the room with the market movers and shakers, we really don’t know.

My gut tells me the peak has been reached and that the high prices of the commodities are being stretched so that HB&B can dump vast holdings onto their unsuspecting clients. I think, based on the weakening economic picture in the US and Europe that rates will likely come off, but that credit being extended to speculators will be tightened. I foresee a price for oil in the mid to high 70’s inside a few months and for gold in the low to mid 700’s. (Through the year after that, I anticipate oil staying in the mid-70's, but gold resuming a secular Bull market rally to four digit numbers. In time, oil will follow, but oil is a consumable and is consumed less during economic recessions.)

I believe the Bear phase of equity markets will be accompanied with fewer bids, less enthusiasm for chasing prices, and by worries of the economic damage that high oil and metal prices are causing. I think the SIV problem that HB&B has and the general condition of the housing market is still far understated, and that traders will start to panic when they see the news to come.

When business and personal spending dries up and the housing industry goes into the tank, and oil prices remain astronomically high (causing raw material costs to escalate), corporate earnings simply cannot grow at double-digit rates. So, where’s the beef?

The Fed is not going to foolishly drop rates this time like former chairman Greenspan did, and invite a $USD in the 60’s along with humungous imported inflation, so the US will muddle along until HB&B resolves its solvency crisis problems.

So, my strategy is to protect my portfolio, and my tactics are to sell into every brief rally anything that has been recently bought to take advantage of short-covering rallies. In other words, like it or not, I have to be a nimble day trader at times like this. We have moved from Tango to Quickstep.

I expect so many others are doing the same that there will be a series of prices that have lower lows and lower highs. That happens to be the classic definition of a Bear.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

RSI > 70 (2)

RSI < 30 (12 of 26)

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KO	62.79	0.49	0.79%	2.87%	2.92%	5.09%	29.25%	15.17%	19.30%	33.48%
MCD	58.48	-0.12	-0.20%	2.42%	-2.11%	2.65%	33.30%	21.10%	11.75%	39.60%
PG	73.21	0.39	0.54%	2.29%	3.89%	2.74%	13.43%	12.61%	15.33%	14.95%
MO	73.81	-0.03	-0.04%	1.32%	1.19%	2.39%	13.69%	10.16%	5.52%	15.85%
MMM	82.11	0.41	0.50%	1.08%	-3.91%	-4.45%	4.92%	-6.98%	-5.51%	0.90%
XOM	87.82	3.71	4.41%	1.08%	-2.83%	-3.86%	18.50%	3.89%	5.48%	21.25%
MRK	57.92	-0.33	-0.57%	0.75%	3.45%	2.77%	31.58%	15.89%	8.77%	29.95%
JNJ	67.64	0.05	0.07%	0.49%	4.69%	4.79%	1.87%	9.40%	6.65%	0.94%
MSFT	34.58	0.62	1.83%	0.35%	-5.03%	11.91%	15.81%	22.36%	12.16%	15.69%
HPQ	49.56	0.12	0.24%	0.12%	-7.21%	-4.44%	19.08%	6.40%	11.17%	24.80%
VZ	43.16	0.11	0.26%	-0.96%	-1.33%	-3.68%	14.12%	4.99%	1.34%	24.49%
WMT	45.50	0.03	0.07%	-1.02%	2.73%	3.57%	-4.31%	4.38%	-3.74%	-4.65%
UTX	74.32	0.72	0.98%	-1.34%	-3.00%	-2.24%	18.33%	-0.51%	7.41%	12.83%
IBM	103.42	1.20	1.17%	-1.76%	-8.62%	-9.82%	6.32%	-5.31%	-4.23%	10.91%
HD	28.50	0.31	1.10%	-2.13%	-5.19%	-7.83%	-30.61%	-15.66%	-26.70%	-25.80%
INTC	25.52	0.35	1.39%	-2.37%	-7.17%	-4.78%	25.41%	5.85%	12.42%	14.54%
DD	45.00	0.17	0.38%	-2.39%	-6.99%	-3.87%	-8.24%	-5.74%	-14.09%	-6.00%
GE	38.04	-0.12	-0.31%	-2.98%	-5.33%	-6.03%	0.18%	-0.47%	2.92%	5.73%
AA	35.38	0.31	0.88%	-3.41%	-8.27%	-7.53%	20.63%	3.09%	-10.95%	24.27%
PFE	22.72	0.01	0.04%	-3.52%	-5.06%	-5.53%	-13.58%	-6.00%	-17.20%	-16.01%
CAT	68.28	0.08	0.12%	-3.93%	-8.86%	-8.25%	11.64%	-7.79%	-8.68%	12.10%
DIS	31.55	0.30	0.96%	-4.42%	-7.42%	-9.57%	-7.75%	-4.13%	-12.41%	-4.74%
T	38.03	0.28	0.74%	-4.57%	-5.02%	-9.50%	8.81%	-1.60%	-7.47%	14.51%
AXP	56.42	-0.95	-1.66%	-4.63%	-3.67%	-3.82%	-6.53%	-3.85%	-11.79%	-5.30%
BA	87.86	-0.41	-0.46%	-6.23%	-10.07%	-7.47%	-1.47%	-9.62%	-9.08%	-1.41%
HON	54.51	-0.25	-0.46%	-6.24%	-10.62%	-7.14%	20.86%	-2.35%	-7.14%	27.72%
JPM	41.63	0.26	0.63%	-7.59%	-5.62%	-9.38%	-13.40%	-10.45%	-20.77%	-13.09%
AIG	54.44	-0.91	-1.64%	-8.01%	-12.26%	-15.29%	-24.55%	-17.20%	-24.62%	-24.30%
C	31.40	-0.60	-1.88%	-12.53%	-10.49%	-26.01%	-43.17%	-35.11%	-42.91%	-38.10%
GM	26.29	-0.50	-1.87%	-16.86%	-27.30%	-31.45%	-10.73%	-15.11%	-16.41%	-23.08%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section 2007_11_20 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	42.31	0.51	1.22%	1.83%	-0.26%	5.67%	14.91%	8.93%	-1.21%	17.79%
XLE	73.75	2.30	3.22%	0.75%	-5.14%	-1.14%	30.35%	9.50%	8.73%	29.50%
XLP	28.60	0.23	0.81%	0.60%	1.20%	2.14%	8.83%	6.52%	3.29%	10.81%
IYH	70.56	0.28	0.40%	-0.35%	-0.54%	-0.87%	6.17%	4.77%	-2.19%	7.33%
IYZ	28.80	-0.08	-0.28%	-2.44%	-8.08%	-11.98%	-2.90%	-9.66%	-13.77%	1.66%
XLB	39.72	0.60	1.53%	-2.69%	-8.08%	-5.59%	14.76%	5.67%	-1.39%	15.20%
XLI	38.31	0.06	0.16%	-3.04%	-5.83%	-4.99%	8.74%	-0.62%	0.16%	8.59%
SMH	32.05	-0.17	-0.53%	-3.46%	-6.86%	-9.54%	-4.53%	-13.38%	-13.73%	-10.02%
XLY	33.29	0.03	0.09%	-4.53%	-6.30%	-8.72%	-13.58%	-6.86%	-16.19%	-12.30%
XLF	29.04	-0.65	-2.19%	-8.10%	-8.07%	-12.48%	-21.34%	-14.69%	-23.22%	-19.98%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWJ	13.58	0.35	2.65%	-0.44%	-3.41%	-3.07%	-4.37%	0.97%	-4.70%	3.43%
EWZ	81.38	1.18	1.47%	-1.52%	-4.16%	3.48%	74.26%	51.26%	39.30%	88.25%
IFN	57.50	0.66	1.16%	-1.63%	-5.43%	-0.35%	26.82%	30.42%	35.42%	20.42%
QQQQ	49.90	0.20	0.40%	-1.66%	-8.74%	-7.90%	15.40%	7.24%	6.83%	12.41%
IEV	117.87	2.57	2.23%	-2.12%	-3.83%	-2.06%	11.62%	8.84%	0.53%	14.92%
SPY	144.64	0.88	0.61%	-2.32%	-4.85%	-4.69%	2.31%	0.00%	-5.23%	2.95%
FXI	177.40	7.85	4.63%	-2.59%	-10.52%	-15.54%	52.41%	39.25%	54.48%	89.73%
TRF	67.37	0.97	1.46%	-3.75%	-7.47%	-3.56%	-23.92%	9.28%	-0.97%	-7.15%
EWU	24.90	0.61	2.51%	-3.94%	-6.04%	-5.11%	5.73%	5.96%	-2.31%	7.65%
EWC	32.01	0.49	1.55%	-4.33%	-12.11%	-5.24%	29.60%	11.61%	7.81%	27.84%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	3.17	3.23	3.34	3.63
6 Month	3.29	3.33	3.58	3.89
2 Year	3.19	3.16	3.54	3.77
3 Year	3.06	3.06	3.48	3.78
5 Year	3.54	3.55	3.84	4.02
10 Year	4.10	4.07	4.27	4.39
30 Year	4.50	4.48	4.61	4.68

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.27	3.27	3.31	3.34
2yr AAA	3.29	3.31	3.31	3.37
2yr A	3.41	3.43	3.43	3.47
5yr AAA	3.40	3.41	3.43	3.46
5yr AA	3.29	3.40	3.41	3.43
5yr A	3.51	3.51	3.54	3.71
10yr AAA	3.85	3.83	3.86	3.76
10yr AA	3.73	3.74	3.90	3.67
10yr A	4.08	4.06	4.09	3.89
20yr AAA	4.43	4.45	4.42	4.40
20yr AA	4.61	4.33	4.61	4.60
20yr A	5.00	5.13	5.06	4.41

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.31	4.19	4.48	4.52
2yr A	4.49	4.43	4.75	4.68
5yr AAA	4.61	4.60	4.67	4.79
5yr AA	4.89	4.86	5.13	4.95
5yr A	4.70	4.69	4.97	4.98
10yr AAA	5.16	5.12	5.34	5.30
10yr AA	5.59	5.57	5.76	5.59
10yr A	5.69	5.64	5.92	5.59
20yr AAA	5.56	5.56	5.63	5.68
20yr AA	5.76	5.74	5.92	5.87
20yr A	6.02	6.02	6.09	6.01

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	92.91	-0.10	-0.11%	1.74%	2.59%	2.90%	4.31%	6.99%	6.88%	3.13%
TIP	105.87	-0.11	-0.10%	1.14%	1.74%	3.03%	6.69%	5.36%	6.22%	6.06%
IEF	86.49	-0.23	-0.27%	1.09%	1.93%	2.08%	4.61%	3.94%	5.24%	4.03%
SHY	82.24	0.00	0.00%	0.69%	1.09%	1.06%	2.75%	1.49%	2.75%	2.58%
AGG	101.00	-0.21	-0.21%	0.33%	0.67%	0.33%	1.09%	2.23%	1.56%	0.60%
CFC	10.28	-0.29	-2.74%	-25.07%	-31.56%	-31.69%	-75.59%	-48.11%	-75.08%	-74.03%
FRE	26.74	-10.76	-28.69%	-39.99%	-45.86%	-49.77%	-60.61%	-57.91%	-60.44%	-60.46%
FNM	28.25	-9.33	-24.83%	-42.58%	-49.00%	-51.52%	-52.81%	-58.15%	-55.29%	-51.23%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
AEM	51.73	3.03	6.22%	3.11%	-10.83%	-2.30%	32.91%	30.93%	47.63%	38.35%
MDG	36.87	1.73	4.92%	1.79%	-12.75%	-3.28%	40.24%	47.60%	45.62%	38.09%
KGC	18.02	1.12	6.63%	1.52%	-13.53%	5.32%	57.79%	56.97%	37.77%	59.33%
AUY	13.41	0.82	6.51%	1.21%	-13.43%	-2.90%	8.76%	34.50%	-2.47%	26.51%
NEM	51.05	2.48	5.11%	0.26%	-6.33%	11.51%	15.50%	28.01%	30.26%	15.94%
ABX	42.30	3.38	8.68%	-0.19%	-9.96%	1.29%	41.80%	32.73%	41.80%	49.26%
GG	32.95	2.32	7.57%	-1.41%	-11.14%	2.97%	20.52%	52.41%	38.68%	26.25%
GFI	17.44	0.35	2.05%	-3.86%	-3.75%	-2.68%	-4.86%	22.04%	0.63%	3.32%
BVN	53.39	1.00	1.91%	-5.55%	-12.39%	1.70%	93.37%	50.14%	61.35%	99.14%

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap up:

Just remember, dancers, we have moved from Tango to Quickstep.

Pity on those who are stuck on the Waltz and Foxtrot.

To our American friends, enjoy Travel Day. As you made your plans for Thanksgiving Dinner some time ago, so should you have done the same for the market so that you can relax and enjoy friends and family at this time.

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