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November 14, 2007
Cara's Daily Report, Wed., Nov 14, 2007
Markets Re-cap
Higher earnings from Wal-Mart was the catalyst used to stop, at least temporarily, the bleeding of equity prices in the major market indexes.
The DJIA (+319.5), S&P 500 (+41.9), and Nasdaq Composite (+89.5) were sent into orbit with the help of the previously over-sold Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
The National Association of Realtors pending home sales index for September increased a seasonally adjusted +0.2 pct to 85.7 from August's 85.5, which gave hopeful traders a little sunshine on the downcast housing industry.
The US Treasury Department reported the federal government ran a monthly budget deficit of $55.56 billion for October, which is a +13 pct Y/Y increase. Funding of course comes from future generations.
On the 3Q earnings front, Wal-Mart (WMT) net income grew +7.9 pct to $2.86 billion vs $2.65 billion a year earlier. The $0.70 was well up from the $0.67 consensus and the $0.63 actual from a year ago. Another retailer, Home Depot (HD) reported a decline in 3Q net income of -27 pct to $1.09 billion vs $1.49 billion a year ago, due to the US housing slump.
With the IEA lowering its global energy demand growth forecast, Crude Oil traded wildly. There was also heavy trading due to the expiration of futures contracts.
The oil price pull-back of the past couple days also led traders to consider that inflation pressures might abate, and so for a little while yesterday the USD strengthened, and Gold and Silver weakened. But the $USD has been in a decline since Monday afternoon, into the 75.56 earlier this morning.
$GOLD futures dipped as low as 791.16 before closing at 802.52, a loss of -5.15 (-0.64 pct) on the day. That’s a loss of -32.18 (-3.9 pct) W/W. the corresponding figures for $SILVER are -1.0 pct D/D and -6.0 pct W/W. $SILVER hit an intra-day low of 14.31, a far cry from the cycle high four days earlier at 16.27.
Spot gold earlier this morning (7:39am ET) is at 809.63, which is up from a low yesterday noon at about 793 (spot).
As US equities rallied, which caused a reversal of the recent flight-to-safety into fixed income, the US Treasury yield curve lifted and steepened. Goldminer shares also lifted. The $XAU Philadelphia gold index was up +4.1 (+2.4 pct) to 176.27, but that is still a drop from the 195.50 cycle high just four days earlier.
Countrywide (CFC +4.02 pct), Fannie (FNM +4.55 pct) and Freddie (+11.40 pct) all rocketed higher, as did the Big Banks.
Next to the Financials, the Energy sector was hottest. Accordingly Canada’s EWC jumped +2.4 pct on the day, but that ETF is still down -2.3 pct W/W.
Cara 100’s Embraer (ERJ) and Yahoo (YHOO) were upgraded.
The day’s Cara 100 winners were India’s banks (HDB and IBN), China’s telecom (CHA), Brazils VCP and PBR and Canada’s RIMM. All gained about +10 pct up to over +13 pct. On the day! The loser was ADBE, on huge volume.
Earlier today, European markets were led higher by the banks. In Asia-Pacific markets, both Shanghai and Hong Kong rocketed +4.9 pct and the Nikkei 225 of Japan was up +2.5 pct. India’s Sensex index gained a lofty +4.7 pct on the session.
Pass the dice!
Comments & Outlook
Yesterday, I opined that the US equity market was hugely over-sold with a Daily RSI-7 of 50 of the Cara 100 <30 and only 1 >70. With the rally that ensued, the RSI split is now a much better balanced 1:5.
The econ data to be reported at 8:30am ET is on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales, and at 10:00am on Business Inventories. These are important data series to watch, but are often spun wildly by the Talking Heads who are paid by HB&B to tell you a story they want disseminated.
HB&B are in deep trouble over their soon-to-be-reported Level 2 and 3 assets, which must now be written down or off, which will result in the insolvency of many financial institutions and hedge funds. So, any time these bankers can find far less important issues to focus the public on they will do so. But, it is only a matter of time the truth will come out.
I’m just wondering when the opposition parties smarten up and start asking what’s happened to the wealth of the employees of government and the taxpayers’ funds that were “invested” in this SIV crap. Won’t that be interesting to see be disclosed?
Meanwhile HB&B will tell anybody who will listen that all is well on the Western Front and hope that the People look on dispassionately as money is being stolen from them left, right and center.
Regardless how HB&B spins this week’s inflation story (CPI tomorrow and PPI today), corporations and Mom & Pop know the truth that inflation is a huge and worsening burden, and nowhere close to the numbers being reported by the Administration.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section 2007_11_13 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 3.34 | 3.13 | 3.59 | 4.06 |
| 6 Month | 3.58 | 3.49 | 3.74 | 4.12 |
| 2 Year | 3.54 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 4.22 |
| 3 Year | 3.48 | 3.36 | 3.68 | 4.23 |
| 5 Year | 3.84 | 3.75 | 3.99 | 4.41 |
| 10 Year | 4.27 | 4.22 | 4.37 | 4.68 |
| 30 Year | 4.61 | 4.60 | 4.67 | 4.90 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.31 | 3.32 | 3.32 | 3.44 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.31 | 3.31 | 3.31 | 3.46 |
| 2yr A | 3.43 | 3.42 | 3.33 | 3.47 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.41 | 3.55 |
| 5yr AA | 3.41 | 3.39 | 3.41 | 3.53 |
| 5yr A | 3.54 | 3.53 | 3.51 | 3.76 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.86 | 3.85 | 3.80 | 3.83 |
| 10yr AA | 3.90 | 3.89 | 3.70 | 3.79 |
| 10yr A | 4.09 | 4.08 | 4.03 | 3.96 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.42 | 4.47 | 4.44 | 4.45 |
| 20yr AA | 4.61 | 4.67 | 4.63 | 4.64 |
| 20yr A | 5.06 | 5.07 | 4.45 | 4.46 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.48 | 4.33 | 4.60 | 4.87 |
| 2yr A | 4.75 | 4.49 | 4.76 | 5.02 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.67 | 4.57 | 4.83 | 4.93 |
| 5yr AA | 5.13 | 4.99 | 5.15 | 5.26 |
| 5yr A | 4.97 | 4.90 | 5.08 | 5.31 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.34 | 5.27 | 5.37 | 5.53 |
| 10yr AA | 5.76 | 5.73 | 5.71 | 5.71 |
| 10yr A | 5.92 | 5.79 | 5.89 | 5.84 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.63 | 5.63 | 5.08 | 5.88 |
| 20yr AA | 5.92 | 5.89 | 6.08 | 6.10 |
| 20yr A | 6.09 | 6.05 | 6.11 | 6.21 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap up:
With such extreme trading action in capital markets, the market has failed to function as an effective pricing mechanism, held at ransom by the computer-algorithms of HB&B black box technology and dark pools.
The public is fed to the teeth with it.
HB&B has effectively converted into day traders those who need the facilities of a stable capital market. That is akin to Mom & Pop in their family sedans being invited by Henry Paulson and friends to race against the world’s top racing teams at the Monaco Grand Prix.
Mom & Pop and their pension fund advisors have almost zero chance of winning, and Henry knows it. Moreover, the taxpayers will soon discover to their chagrin how many hundreds of billions of their hard-earned and heavily taxed dollars, mandated for social and retirement programs, have been placed by the government’s so-called investment professionals into this worthless HB&B-packaged SIV crap.
And when they discover the truth, we may soon be witness to the French Revolution redux.
I usually say in this space, have a great day. Unfortunately, it is a sad day for the People. The capital market has been stolen and we need to think about that.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 14, 2007 07:44:56 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market








