The US economy International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index fell -0.1 pct W/W. There was some spin, however, inferring a relatively firm start to the holiday shopping season.

Barclays Bank (BCS) guided 2007 earnings per share to be broadly in line with current market expectations.

Today, the story is likely to change because of Citigroup. Futures are now pointing higher thanks to an investment of $7.5 billion in Citigroup (C) by the $650 billion Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

The $USD jumped about +15 bp at 3 am, and then plunged -20 bp at about 8 am. The forex market is nervous today. The last trade was 74.815.

Spot gold dropped to a low of 810.50 at about 8:00 am ET today, presently (9:00 am) at 816.57, but down from the high of 829.15 at 1:00 am, and about 838 yesterday morning. Traders here are nervous as well.

Spot silver is now (9:00 am) at 15.51, but bounced off a low of 14.42 at 8:00 am, after reaching a high of 14.77 at 2:30 am. Yesterday morning the high was 15.0

January Crude Oil e-miNY contracts are at 95.625, down -2.075 (-2.14 pct) this morning from the open.

The December DJIA futures are up +27 to 12799, but weaker than earlier.

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Comments & Outlook

Here is what I wrote precisely one week ago.

The Daily RSI-7 Over 70:Under 30 number for the Cara 100 reached 1:30 during yesterday’s market purge. That sentiment is extremely bearish and represents an over-sold condition, ripe for an attempt by the Bulls to rally the market this morning. But the end of the day, particularly the hours following the close in Europe, is the most important.

The gold market in the 700’s is giving you a ‘Buy of the Generation’ opportunity. If you are interested in preservation of assets over 5, 10, 20 years, then the price today is a good one. But if you want to trade for another “Buffett-type” gain, then you will watch the RSI and MACD data. That Buy Alert is soon to come. I believe it will come in the low to mid 700’s.

The RSI over/under is the same today. I anticipate much the same result will occur in the market, which is that the morning will be stronger, then there will be a sell-off for a day or two. Then another rally attempt before the end of the week.

How long the Bull or Bear remain dominant in this fight depends on you because the market is us.

As for me, I saw another skirmish yesterday afternoon, and warned at 2:19 pm (DJIA=12940) that if the DJIA weakened in the following minutes, the fight was over. About 15 minutes later, the Bull fell from about 12935 to a low of 12724, before closing at 12743.

There is a serious bull-bear fight going on right here. Technicians will look at an important downtrend line stretching back into late October that was breached on Friday, making it appear to be rally time this week. BUT, if the bears take control in the next 90 minutes or so, I believe the game is over for the Bulls.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is down to 3.89 and the Cdn to 3.94. Can anybody not see the billboard that reads RECESSION COMING ?
Posted by: Bill Cara  at November 26, 2007 2:19 PM

There are always traders in denial, and bottom-pickers, and HB&B and Funds managers who will buy stock after it tumbles, especially if it helps stem a flood in their prize holdings. But stick to the bigger picture, which is what I advised in the WIR. Keep your eye on the technical indicators.

During 2008, I expect that the US Administration, including the Fed, which under the present White House is not separate (ie, it has been compromised politically), will push rates lower, further weakening the $USD.

That is a shame and a tragedy for the young people of America who will have to endure a lower standard of living than they otherwise would have been entitled to.

For this policy to change, however, given that there appears to be unwillingness by the White House, Treasury and Fed to support the $USD, the G-20 will have to name and shame both the US and China as international thieves. The Republicans in Congress will either have to concede a whitewash in November 2008 or change their votes to force policy change in the interim.

During US Thanksgiving dinner last Thursday, when the $USD dropped to 74.5, I think there must have been some glum faces. The cost of buying foreign goods or real property or travelling internationally for business or personal reasons has soared in recent months. The People are right to blame the politicians who have let them down. I hardly think they will accept a $USD with a 60s handle.

In terms of current market action and the days ahead, I still believe that the $USD will rally a couple points soon and that both the oil and gold market will sink. Because of the worsening state of the economies of North America and Europe, I expect oil prices to stay soft for a while, and I believe that OPEC would be happy at $75 oil and a stronger $USD.

But gold and silver is a different matter, particularly gold, where costs of exploration and mining is rocketing, and major new discoveries in politically stable jurisdictions are just not happening. At the same time, all fiat money in the world is depreciating in value as govts continue to print it excessively whereas gold is a storehouse of value, ie, a hedge against currency depreciation. So, I think the gold price may dip soon, but longer term will have to rally or existing or planned gold production will be stopped.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

RSI > 70 (0)

RSI < 30 (12 of 26)

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XOM	85.68	-2.61	-2.96%	0.68%	-1.35%	-7.08%	15.61%	-0.01%	2.60%	18.38%
BA	89.93	0.39	0.44%	-0.07%	-4.54%	-6.34%	0.85%	-8.67%	-8.47%	0.18%
JNJ	67.37	0.49	0.73%	-0.56%	3.39%	4.77%	1.46%	8.87%	6.61%	2.31%
MMM	81.00	-1.75	-2.11%	-0.70%	1.87%	-5.96%	3.50%	-9.14%	-7.27%	-0.18%
MRK	57.59	-0.07	-0.12%	-1.35%	3.02%	0.02%	30.83%	13.32%	7.24%	30.35%
PG	72.19	-0.67	-0.92%	-1.37%	2.51%	0.61%	11.85%	9.49%	14.66%	13.63%
KO	61.73	-0.57	-0.91%	-1.42%	1.48%	0.26%	27.07%	14.31%	18.96%	31.56%
UTX	72.68	-0.78	-1.06%	-2.18%	-1.13%	-3.66%	15.71%	-2.22%	5.92%	10.14%
MCD	56.82	-0.90	-1.56%	-2.25%	-2.56%	-2.82%	29.52%	13.37%	11.63%	35.67%
CAT	67.83	-0.80	-1.17%	-2.32%	-3.66%	-9.61%	10.91%	-11.12%	-10.41%	7.89%
MO	71.44	-1.53	-2.10%	-2.38%	-1.75%	-2.10%	10.04%	3.25%	0.93%	13.67%
IBM	101.97	-2.08	-2.00%	-2.69%	1.72%	-10.34%	4.83%	-9.95%	-3.05%	9.23%
WMT	45.03	-0.70	-1.53%	-2.83%	4.97%	0.87%	-5.30%	2.95%	-4.01%	-5.99%
DD	43.94	-0.75	-1.68%	-3.02%	-6.09%	-9.16%	-10.40%	-10.47%	-14.61%	-9.27%
MSFT	32.97	-1.14	-3.34%	-3.29%	-2.25%	-5.88%	10.42%	14.44%	8.17%	10.79%
AA	34.88	-0.27	-0.77%	-3.94%	-5.96%	-11.36%	18.92%	-4.93%	-14.72%	13.58%
DIS	31.24	-0.60	-1.88%	-3.97%	-4.58%	-9.13%	-8.65%	-7.76%	-13.29%	-5.07%
INTC	24.37	-0.70	-2.79%	-4.47%	-3.10%	-6.05%	19.75%	-1.69%	9.97%	12.88%
PFE	22.30	-0.68	-2.96%	-4.66%	-2.32%	-8.27%	-15.18%	-9.86%	-19.00%	-17.07%
HON	53.19	-1.48	-2.71%	-4.81%	-7.91%	-10.51%	17.94%	-4.68%	-6.57%	24.39%
GE	36.73	-0.94	-2.50%	-4.97%	-4.30%	-9.04%	-3.27%	-6.80%	-2.21%	2.91%
HPQ	48.16	-1.01	-2.05%	-5.10%	-0.48%	-8.21%	15.71%	0.12%	5.57%	21.74%
HD	27.49	-1.46	-5.04%	-5.44%	-2.00%	-12.31%	-33.07%	-20.73%	-28.37%	-27.12%
VZ	41.23	-1.41	-3.31%	-5.63%	-3.60%	-9.58%	9.02%	-3.31%	-2.99%	18.65%
JPM	40.46	-1.49	-3.55%	-6.10%	-4.37%	-14.50%	-15.83%	-11.95%	-21.65%	-14.41%
AIG	52.56	-0.47	-0.89%	-6.87%	-7.89%	-15.43%	-27.15%	-22.25%	-26.95%	-26.18%
T	36.35	-1.28	-3.40%	-8.09%	-7.27%	-12.33%	4.01%	-9.94%	-10.82%	11.26%
GM	26.90	-0.26	-0.96%	-8.10%	-14.00%	-28.78%	-8.66%	-13.37%	-11.77%	-13.86%
AXP	53.54	-2.09	-3.76%	-8.74%	-5.22%	-11.75%	-11.30%	-12.07%	-15.86%	-10.62%
C	30.70	-1.00	-3.15%	-9.71%	-7.25%	-27.98%	-44.43%	-36.70%	-44.30%	-38.98%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section 2007_11_26 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	41.85	-0.07	-0.17%	0.41%	-0.19%	0.75%	13.66%	5.66%	1.82%	15.61%
XLP	28.25	-0.29	-1.02%	-1.12%	1.33%	-0.32%	7.50%	4.21%	2.58%	9.79%
XLE	71.49	-2.56	-3.46%	-1.26%	-3.98%	-7.10%	26.35%	3.40%	5.49%	24.24%
IYH	69.65	-0.50	-0.71%	-1.93%	-0.11%	-2.33%	4.80%	1.32%	-3.60%	6.09%
XLI	37.57	-0.60	-1.57%	-3.05%	-3.47%	-6.77%	6.64%	-4.43%	-2.42%	5.92%
XLB	38.69	-0.83	-2.10%	-4.02%	-6.84%	-10.46%	11.79%	-1.80%	-3.83%	10.29%
XLY	32.68	-0.87	-2.59%	-4.11%	-3.63%	-10.32%	-15.16%	-11.44%	-17.54%	-13.89%
SMH	31.10	-0.69	-2.17%	-5.15%	-5.59%	-7.96%	-7.36%	-17.46%	-14.23%	-12.07%
IYZ	27.77	-0.73	-2.56%	-6.47%	-5.16%	-14.32%	-6.37%	-16.28%	-18.03%	-1.94%
XLF	28.29	-0.98	-3.35%	-6.94%	-6.14%	-16.03%	-23.37%	-18.09%	-24.68%	-21.59%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EWJ	13.64	0.00	0.00%	1.11%	1.79%	-3.54%	-3.94%	-2.36%	-4.68%	3.26%
IEV	115.85	-2.33	-1.97%	-2.32%	-2.57%	-5.77%	9.71%	2.56%	-0.70%	12.23%
QQQQ	48.98	-0.86	-1.73%	-2.59%	-2.04%	-9.18%	13.27%	1.62%	5.45%	9.70%
EWU	24.45	-0.56	-2.24%	-2.98%	-4.16%	-8.80%	3.82%	-0.24%	-3.47%	5.25%
SPY	140.95	-3.18	-2.21%	-3.32%	-2.89%	-8.25%	-0.30%	-4.94%	-7.07%	0.43%
TRF	65.69	-0.61	-0.92%	-4.10%	-4.98%	-9.39%	-25.82%	5.63%	-2.32%	-15.14%
FXI	167.80	-4.49	-2.61%	-5.93%	-7.80%	-19.90%	44.16%	16.82%	49.71%	74.54%
EWC	31.21	-0.80	-2.50%	-6.16%	-12.21%	-7.72%	26.36%	8.41%	4.70%	22.68%
IFN	54.77	-0.48	-0.87%	-8.07%	-0.09%	-5.24%	20.80%	22.12%	27.31%	10.36%
EWZ	72.50	-4.94	-6.38%	-13.88%	-12.92%	-12.01%	55.25%	20.83%	25.35%	64.03%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	2.99	3.10	3.23	3.80
6 Month	3.14	3.23	3.33	3.87
2 Year	2.88	3.07	3.16	3.76
3 Year	2.81	3.01	3.06	3.77
5 Year	3.20	3.41	3.55	4.05
10 Year	3.83	4.00	4.07	4.40
30 Year	4.29	4.42	4.48	4.70

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.15	3.22	3.27	3.26
2yr AAA	3.22	3.31	3.31	3.35
2yr A	3.34	3.43	3.43	3.39
5yr AAA	3.29	3.53	3.41	3.42
5yr AA	3.24	3.45	3.40	3.36
5yr A	3.40	3.64	3.51	3.59
10yr AAA	3.78	3.76	3.83	3.74
10yr AA	3.75	3.82	3.74	3.70
10yr A	4.01	3.99	4.06	3.87
20yr AAA	4.39	4.23	4.45	4.37
20yr AA	4.79	4.79	4.33	4.56
20yr A	4.70	4.77	5.13	4.38

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.05	4.37	4.19	4.57
2yr A	4.30	4.49	4.43	4.67
5yr AAA	4.38	4.54	4.60	4.80
5yr AA	4.61	4.78	4.86	5.01
5yr A	4.42	4.63	4.69	5.00
10yr AAA	4.91	5.24	5.12	5.27
10yr AA	5.36	5.46	5.57	5.58
10yr A	5.52	5.66	5.64	5.68
20yr AAA	5.40	5.72	5.56	5.71
20yr AA	5.59	5.91	5.74	5.88
20yr A	5.86	6.17	6.02	6.05

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	95.58	1.85	1.97%	3.43%	4.65%	5.61%	7.31%	8.71%	10.66%	5.47%
TIP	107.90	1.21	1.13%	2.64%	2.42%	4.40%	8.74%	7.15%	8.14%	7.52%
IEF	88.10	1.19	1.37%	2.32%	2.62%	3.79%	6.56%	5.69%	7.54%	5.53%
AGG	102.17	0.92	0.91%	1.17%	1.36%	1.40%	2.26%	3.15%	2.83%	1.43%
SHY	82.63	0.23	0.28%	0.78%	1.09%	1.40%	3.24%	2.23%	3.11%	2.95%
CFC	8.640	-1.010	-10.47%	-28.42%	-37.53%	-50.06%	-79.48%	-58.86%	-78.12%	-78.79%
FNM	28.92	-3.28	-10.19%	-28.93%	-40.98%	-51.82%	-51.69%	-56.96%	-55.20%	-49.61%
FRE	24.50	-1.97	-7.44%	-39.83%	-41.25%	-53.50%	-63.91%	-61.48%	-63.24%	-63.59%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GG	33.48	-1.18	-3.40%	3.94%	-3.68%	0.21%	22.46%	42.89%	46.46%	18.77%
KGC	17.91	-0.71	-3.81%	2.69%	-4.58%	-2.66%	56.83%	52.43%	39.16%	51.14%
AUY	13.42	-0.52	-3.73%	2.60%	-3.45%	-6.93%	8.84%	28.91%	2.84%	15.29%
ABX	41.71	-1.39	-3.23%	1.68%	-8.21%	-3.11%	39.83%	25.94%	44.33%	40.20%
NEM	50.44	-1.65	-3.17%	1.51%	-6.66%	6.03%	14.12%	22.55%	28.67%	10.74%
MDG	36.96	-1.08	-2.84%	-1.70%	-3.22%	-6.26%	40.59%	39.21%	49.64%	23.36%
BVN	54.46	-0.32	-0.58%	-2.75%	-9.29%	3.07%	97.25%	43.17%	67.57%	95.90%
AEM	49.23	-2.99	-5.73%	-3.28%	-7.45%	-10.33%	26.49%	14.28%	44.88%	19.03%
GFI	16.92	-0.70	-3.97%	-4.62%	-11.55%	-6.78%	-7.69%	12.88%	-1.80%	-2.93%

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap up:

These are interesting times. Big banks are for sale. Some like Britain’s Northern Rock are selling for basically zero.

A year ago, who woulda thought this possible?

Have a great day, but keep your eye on the ball.

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