Gobble, gobble. If you believe that, you’ll believe anything. But, adjusted for inflation, anything can be printed.

If it’s true that prices are really falling, why then did the USD set a new low vs the Euro yesterday?

The economic data in the US is rapidly worsening. The Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers index for mid-month November sunk to 76.1 from 80.9 in October. The January reading was 96.3, and the index has been dropping sharply since then. Consumers are shocked at the rising costs of food and oil, which, coupled with declining home prices, is making them desperate.

The spiraling dollar and collapsing consumer and investor confidence in US equity markets pulled down stock prices yesterday, setting off a seldom seen and ominous sounding Dow Theory sell signal. The DJIA (-211.10), S&P 500 (-22.93), and Nasdaq Composite (-34.66) started to plunge at precisely 3 pm ET.

In other US economic news, the Labor Department Bureau of Labor Statistics reported jobless claims fell -11,000 to 330,000 for the week ended November 17. Fewer traders are paying attention to BLS data these days. And, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications fell -3.6 pct last week, which, if permits and sales are down, makes sense.

On the earnings front, farm, construction and forestry equipment maker Deere (DE) reported 4Q earnings jumped +52 pct to $422 million vs $277 million a year ago. Whole Foods Market (WFMI) 4Q earnings dropped -15 pct to $33.9 million vs $39.8 million in the year-earlier quarter, due, they say, to costs associated with opening new stores.

On the deals front, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) agreed to acquire Reliant Pharmaceutical for $1.65 billion.

Crude Oil dropped almost -$1/bbl in spite of the DoE reporting lower inventories.

US Treasury prices lifted and the 10-year yield fell for a time below 4 pct for the first time in two years.

Before the opening bell yesterday, Asia-Pacific markets fell hard, and then prices of European shares did the same later as the FTSE dropped -2.50 pct, the DAX -1.47 pct, and the CAC 40 -2.28 pct.

Today is US Thanksgiving Holiday, and markets are closed. Elsewhere in the world today, Asia-Pacific equity markets are mixed (Tokyo was up +0.34 pct, while Shanghai (-4.41 pct) and Hong Kong (-2.30 pct) were very weak), and Europe is presently stronger as the FTSE 100 is up +0.74 pct, the DAX +0.50 pct, and the CAC 40 +0.64 pct at 8:53am ET (1353 GMT). Financial and mining stocks are off and pharmaceutical stocks up a bit there in choppy trading.

The $USD bounced off a bottom of about 74.9 yesterday and has risen slowly to 75.088 this morning. Spot Gold and Silver are a tad softer.

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Comments & Outlook

Yesterday, the Daily RSI-7 for the Cara 100 dropped to zero over 70 and 36 under 30, which sets up a rally base.

Including yesterday’s loss of -211 points, the Dow 30 has now lost over 1,100 points in November, closing yesterday at 12,799. The high of 14,280 was reached just 30 sessions ago on Oct 11, which is a drop of -10.4 pct.

I wrote yesterday morning before the latest damage from the Bear:

So, my strategy is to protect my portfolio, and my tactics are to sell into every brief rally anything that has been recently bought to take advantage of short-covering rallies. In other words, like it or not, I have to be a nimble day trader at times like this. We have moved from Tango to Quickstep. I expect so many others are doing the same that there will be a series of prices that have lower lows and lower highs. That happens to be the classic definition of a Bear.

Equity prices flow in a rhythm. There is an ebb tide and a flood tide. Let’s face it; the waters are receding, and the Bulls are suffering. That’s not to say there will be no recovery -- I have already opined that the rally base is building and I anticipate a rally starting on Friday -- but the rallies will be less frequent and smaller than when the Bull was healthy.

I also, as you know, recommend selling into strength.

Before this cycle is finished, at least in terms of the four-year bull-bear Kitchin Wave, which could take some six months to two years for the bearish phase to complete, I believe that the Dow 30 could drop between 30 pct and 35 pct, which means to a low of 10,000 down possibly to 9,200.

A serious recession in the US in 2008 will make that possible. A global recession, which is far less certain at this point, would make the worst estimates come true. Equity prices, as you know, are based on corporate financial strength and earnings power, which like bids in a Bear market tend to disappear in a recession/depression.

The 9,200 level was my recession-indicated forecast until along came Hank as in Henry Paulson, parachuted in from his perch at the top of Goldman Sachs and acclaimed head of HB&B in June 2006. Nothing's changed. Since then, traders have had to sit back and watch Paulson’s Pride, which is my way of suggesting that Henry has been smiling all the way to the bank as Buy-side traders have lost, and are in the process of losing, trillions of dollars to the gnomes, ie, the movers and shakers of the capitalist world.

We are witness to the greatest transfer of wealth from the masses to the classes in the history of the world, and the gnomes are using HB&B as the instrument and the cover. If I were in their camp, I would marvel at the job Henry Paulson has been doing.

At the end of the day, there will be massive consolidation in the financial services industry. The same owners. The same jockeys. Just fewer horses and fewer courses. Most importantly to Henry Paulson and friends, the same losers at the parimutuel windows.

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Links & Charts

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International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

RSI > 70 (0)

RSI < 30 (12 of 36)

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KO	62.25	-0.54	-0.86%	1.45%	3.82%	3.44%	28.14%	15.21%	19.92%	32.47%
MMM	81.24	-0.87	-1.06%	1.28%	-2.44%	-5.64%	3.81%	-8.16%	-6.69%	-0.49%
MCD	57.33	-1.15	-1.97%	1.11%	-1.80%	0.31%	30.68%	18.28%	9.68%	36.31%
PG	72.26	-0.95	-1.30%	1.01%	4.09%	1.23%	11.96%	12.10%	14.21%	14.23%
MSFT	34.23	-0.35	-1.01%	0.88%	-3.63%	9.54%	14.63%	21.95%	10.24%	14.37%
XOM	87.04	-0.78	-0.89%	0.85%	-0.18%	-5.52%	17.45%	4.68%	4.13%	18.60%
JNJ	67.14	-0.50	-0.74%	0.37%	5.05%	4.19%	1.11%	8.87%	5.70%	0.81%
MO	72.41	-1.40	-1.90%	0.26%	0.60%	0.07%	11.54%	7.72%	2.20%	14.72%
HPQ	48.88	-0.68	-1.37%	-0.39%	-5.71%	-5.27%	17.44%	6.24%	8.09%	22.23%
DIS	31.50	-0.05	-0.16%	-1.13%	-5.97%	-10.15%	-7.89%	-5.38%	-13.56%	-5.21%
IBM	102.22	-1.20	-1.16%	-1.18%	-7.98%	-9.50%	5.09%	-6.25%	-4.50%	9.82%
MRK	56.52	-1.40	-2.42%	-1.36%	4.28%	0.57%	28.40%	13.56%	5.08%	27.82%
UTX	72.78	-1.54	-2.07%	-2.86%	-2.26%	-4.85%	15.87%	-0.22%	5.60%	10.56%
CAT	67.94	-0.34	-0.50%	-2.98%	-7.69%	-10.36%	11.09%	-8.54%	-9.23%	9.25%
HD	28.05	-0.45	-1.58%	-3.38%	-4.40%	-9.16%	-31.70%	-18.22%	-27.39%	-26.03%
DD	44.35	-0.65	-1.44%	-3.40%	-5.94%	-6.71%	-9.56%	-7.12%	-14.83%	-7.66%
WMT	44.86	-0.64	-1.41%	-3.55%	2.12%	2.26%	-5.66%	2.65%	-3.78%	-6.17%
VZ	41.95	-1.21	-2.80%	-3.61%	-2.67%	-5.56%	10.92%	0.58%	-1.39%	19.41%
AA	35.17	-0.21	-0.59%	-4.58%	-5.96%	-7.93%	19.91%	1.65%	-9.80%	20.49%
GE	37.17	-0.87	-2.29%	-4.72%	-4.89%	-7.61%	-2.11%	-3.08%	0.19%	3.83%
INTC	24.63	-0.89	-3.49%	-4.72%	-8.44%	-5.31%	21.03%	3.10%	8.84%	14.19%
T	37.45	-0.58	-1.53%	-4.80%	-3.13%	-9.87%	7.15%	-3.35%	-7.64%	14.35%
PFE	22.35	-0.37	-1.63%	-5.34%	-4.16%	-6.80%	-14.99%	-7.80%	-18.49%	-17.44%
BA	87.41	-0.45	-0.51%	-5.80%	-9.78%	-7.27%	-1.97%	-9.84%	-9.79%	-4.05%
HON	53.91	-0.60	-1.10%	-7.88%	-8.69%	-8.19%	19.53%	-2.02%	-7.53%	25.61%
AXP	54.34	-2.08	-3.69%	-8.05%	-1.86%	-7.80%	-9.97%	-8.12%	-15.45%	-8.53%
JPM	40.68	-0.95	-2.28%	-9.90%	-3.69%	-12.08%	-15.37%	-11.95%	-22.60%	-14.81%
AIG	51.33	-3.11	-5.71%	-13.63%	-11.35%	-19.60%	-28.86%	-22.00%	-28.70%	-28.55%
GM	26.39	0.10	0.38%	-15.42%	-22.27%	-31.79%	-10.39%	-15.09%	-15.63%	-19.10%
C	30.73	-0.67	-2.13%	-15.46%	-8.02%	-26.52%	-44.38%	-36.06%	-43.96%	-39.28%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section 2007_11_21 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	41.96	-0.35	-0.83%	0.94%	1.23%	4.90%	13.96%	8.14%	-1.89%	16.62%
XLP	28.25	-0.35	-1.22%	-0.74%	1.07%	1.18%	7.50%	5.21%	2.80%	9.62%
XLE	72.15	-1.60	-2.17%	-1.16%	-3.22%	-3.92%	27.52%	8.66%	5.48%	24.40%
IYH	69.33	-1.23	-1.74%	-2.12%	-0.49%	-2.20%	4.32%	2.83%	-3.99%	5.56%
XLY	32.97	-0.32	-0.96%	-3.77%	-5.26%	-9.30%	-14.41%	-8.37%	-17.31%	-13.40%
XLI	37.67	-0.64	-1.67%	-4.27%	-5.11%	-6.29%	6.93%	-1.90%	-2.08%	6.41%
SMH	31.43	-0.62	-1.93%	-4.50%	-6.60%	-8.77%	-6.37%	-15.42%	-15.28%	-10.33%
IYZ	28.22	-0.58	-2.01%	-4.79%	-6.37%	-12.66%	-4.86%	-12.41%	-16.41%	-0.56%
XLB	38.94	-0.78	-1.96%	-5.35%	-7.29%	-7.62%	12.51%	2.96%	-3.47%	12.64%
XLF	28.59	-0.45	-1.55%	-9.92%	-4.89%	-13.18%	-22.56%	-16.60%	-24.48%	-20.96%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

Here are the Daily data charts:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Here are the Weekly data charts:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QQQQ	49.31	-0.59	-1.18%	-1.56%	-7.57%	-8.29%	14.04%	4.87%	4.89%	10.93%
EWJ	13.34	-0.24	-1.77%	-2.49%	-3.33%	-4.37%	-6.06%	-2.06%	-6.39%	1.52%
IEV	115.69	-2.18	-1.85%	-3.59%	-4.10%	-3.75%	9.55%	7.12%	-0.58%	12.39%
SPY	141.70	-2.94	-2.03%	-4.04%	-4.20%	-6.46%	0.23%	-2.23%	-7.14%	0.75%
EWU	24.35	-0.55	-2.21%	-4.88%	-5.36%	-6.78%	3.40%	4.46%	-3.72%	5.23%
TRF	65.50	-1.87	-2.78%	-5.46%	-6.71%	-6.43%	-26.03%	8.39%	-5.96%	-11.41%
EWC	31.21	-0.80	-2.50%	-6.16%	-12.21%	-7.72%	26.36%	8.41%	4.70%	22.68%
EWZ	76.65	-4.73	-5.81%	-8.59%	-6.38%	-2.36%	64.13%	42.16%	29.92%	73.61%
IFN	53.65	-3.85	-6.70%	-9.60%	-7.37%	-5.83%	18.33%	25.41%	24.33%	10.64%
FXI	163.51	-13.89	-7.83%	-12.88%	-13.40%	-20.81%	40.47%	26.75%	42.55%	74.22%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	2.97	3.17	3.27	3.82
6 Month	3.16	3.29	3.52	3.96
2 Year	2.99	3.19	3.50	3.85
3 Year	2.89	3.06	3.45	3.86
5 Year	3.34	3.54	3.82	4.08
10 Year	4.01	4.10	4.25	4.41
30 Year	4.46	4.50	4.60	4.69

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.23	3.27	3.31	3.38
2yr AAA	3.27	3.29	3.31	3.39
2yr A	3.39	3.41	3.43	3.49
5yr AAA	3.38	3.40	3.44	3.47
5yr AA	3.31	3.29	3.41	3.40
5yr A	3.49	3.51	3.54	3.57
10yr AAA	3.80	3.85	3.86	3.75
10yr AA	3.68	3.73	3.90	3.65
10yr A	4.02	4.08	4.09	3.87
20yr AAA	4.44	4.43	4.46	4.40
20yr AA	4.59	4.61	4.65	4.59
20yr A	4.78	5.00	4.99	4.40

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.15	4.31	4.47	4.61
2yr A	4.28	4.49	4.69	4.77
5yr AAA	4.53	4.61	4.67	4.88
5yr AA	4.72	4.89	5.09	5.06
5yr A	4.55	4.70	4.95	5.02
10yr AAA	5.13	5.16	5.18	5.33
10yr AA	5.54	5.59	5.76	5.68
10yr A	5.54	5.69	5.74	5.62
20yr AAA	5.54	5.56	5.62	5.71
20yr AA	5.73	5.76	5.87	5.88
20yr A	6.00	6.02	6.08	6.05

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	93.45	0.54	0.58%	2.22%	3.01%	2.67%	4.92%	7.09%	7.18%	3.48%
TIP	106.76	0.89	0.84%	1.98%	2.54%	3.50%	7.59%	5.88%	6.85%	6.78%
IEF	87.17	0.68	0.79%	1.81%	2.37%	2.36%	5.43%	4.31%	5.93%	4.70%
AGG	101.77	0.77	0.76%	1.13%	1.45%	0.65%	1.86%	2.53%	2.13%	1.24%
SHY	82.49	0.25	0.30%	0.94%	1.12%	1.23%	3.06%	1.66%	3.04%	2.87%
CFC	9.420	-0.860	-8.37%	-29.54%	-30.89%	-31.89%	-77.63%	-56.77%	-76.73%	-76.39%
FNM	29.23	0.98	3.47%	-38.87%	-41.29%	-47.99%	-51.17%	-57.63%	-53.82%	-49.51%
FRE	26.00	-0.74	-2.77%	-41.16%	-42.39%	-49.07%	-61.70%	-59.48%	-61.48%	-61.49%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	17.73	-0.29	-1.61%	-0.39%	-11.39%	2.19%	55.25%	53.77%	34.01%	52.32%
AEM	50.78	-0.95	-1.84%	-0.86%	-9.93%	-2.12%	30.47%	26.44%	44.02%	27.14%
GG	32.86	-0.09	-0.27%	-1.17%	-9.38%	2.21%	20.19%	50.53%	37.26%	19.58%
NEM	50.56	-0.49	-0.96%	-1.25%	-6.73%	9.53%	14.39%	25.33%	28.16%	12.08%
AUY	13.18	-0.23	-1.72%	-1.79%	-10.03%	-5.86%	6.89%	32.46%	-4.42%	18.31%
MDG	36.46	-0.41	-1.11%	-1.94%	-9.64%	-5.54%	38.68%	42.98%	42.87%	29.06%
ABX	41.74	-0.56	-1.32%	-2.06%	-9.73%	-0.36%	39.93%	30.11%	37.89%	43.49%
BVN	53.36	-0.03	-0.06%	-6.83%	-12.38%	2.79%	93.26%	49.76%	61.70%	95.67%
GFI	17.08	-0.36	-2.06%	-7.07%	-5.64%	-4.85%	-6.82%	21.39%	-1.56%	-1.16%

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap up:

Irrespective of national holidays, the international capital markets are trading five days a week. All prices are involved. No country is an island.

Yes, I do think there will be a rally on Friday. No, I think that will last long and I expect that prices will be falling by the following Friday.

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