Shanghai and Hong Kong were up between one and two pct overnight and the BSE 30 Sensex of India jumped +1.8 pct.

Spot gold hit a high of 815.72 at about 2:45am ET, but has cooled to 809.40 by 7:55 am. After hitting a high of 14.77 earlier today, spot silver is down to 14.55.

The $USD has been strong this morning, up from about 74.55 to a current 75.10 after reaching a high of 75.229 between 5 and 6 am.

The January e-miNY’s for Crude Oil are down -0.225 to 96.475.

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Comments & Outlook

As the Daily RSI-7 of the Cara 100 dropped to 36 below 30 and zero above 70 at the close Wednesday, it became apparent to me that the market was over-sold and setting up for a rally on post-Thanksgiving Day Friday. This morning the early DJIA and S&P futures confirm that.

The European bourses (UK, France and Germany) are up on average about +0.5 pct this morning as the banks have lifted.

How long the rally goes is something only the gnomes know at this point. Our side will just have to watch the price series of the most important stocks. I suggest that the HB&B (humungous bank and broker) stocks and the Nasdaq 10 must open strongly this morning to pull broad market prices higher, and I believe that will happen.

The Dow Theory sell signal that was reported on Wednesday, however, will weigh on the decisions of the Buy-side. So too will Tuesday’s indication from the Fed that the US economy was headed for a period of slow growth, as well as events in Europe this morning.

The economy in Europe is also softening. Downward adjustments to the UK economy were made today, now at +0.7 pct for the Quarter and +3.2 pct Y/Y.

Moreover, in a speech to the European Banking congress this morning, ECB President Jean Paul Trichet made a number of sobering remarks. He stated that it was not surprising to see the recent equity market pull-back and that risks of a sudden liquidity crisis are not being factored properly into markets, such as recent decreases to the LIBOR, which is the inter-bank lending rate.

The communicative JP Trichet called for more transparency and stronger risk management systems among banks and a better job done by rating agencies because the buyers of increasingly sophisticated credit market instruments are, basically, not fully understanding these products.

The 1-year LIBOR, at 5.35 pct a year ago dropped to 4.82 pct a month ago and is now down to 4.47 pct.

When major economies like North America and Europe are in slow-down mode and central bankers like Trichet focus on risks, including solvency issues, among banks, the prudent posture of the Buy-side ought to be a defensive one.

In terms of the forex and bond markets, I believe that the $USD has been pushed too low (for the reason that Europe/Japan is also in econ slowdown) and bond prices too high (for the reason that low yields are falling below the true inflation rate and wealth is being destroyed).

As risk gets priced into the market, it shows. For example, the cost of insuring against credit market losses is exploding as one blogger indicated this week.

I think the global investment community, ie, the buy-side, is waiting for disclosure of financial difficulties of HB&B members that will be insolvent once the mortgage-backed debt securities are fully investigated and market priced. If, as and when a major bank or two fails, there could be a drying up of liquidity and a lifting of international interest rates. To the extent that the Fed does not have to step in to bail out the whole system, I feel the $USD will not tank even further. That would be the case if the failures are in Europe, for example, possibly say a Barclay’s, and the ECB is the central bank that needs to be the liquidity pumper.

Nervousness and negativity tend to go hand in hand. As the trend juncture between Bull and Bear becomes more noticeable to the nervous public, I think there will be increasing coverage in MSM (mainstream media) that is negative. For example, the WSJ Heard On The Street column today is a downer for (Cara 100) Whole Foods Market (WFMI).

Looking at the big picture, this has been a challenging month, but a satisfactory year up until then, for the Bulls. The truth is that most traders are long-term investors (ie, perma-bulls) around core holdings.

All that I am trying to do is point out that now is the time you need to let others chase your prices, and to sell into that strength when its there, and to allow prices to come to you where you buy into weakness those of your core holdings, when others are busy throwing out the babies with the bathwater. This is the attitude you must have in order to attain a superior portfolio performance.

In this regard, if your time horizon is in terms of multiple years, then your strategy should be set by trend junctures (ie, reversals in MACD) and cycle junctures (ie, reversals in RSI I call Buy and Sell alerts) in the Monthly price series of your core holdings. Once you are set in your mind as to what you need to do, you look for the harmonic movement in the Weekly and Daily RSI data for the optimal points of execution.

If you consider yourself a nimble trader, your execution methods may employ a more responsive type of RSI algorithm called Stochastics, and you would use the Hourly and even the 10-minute (for the high volume large caps) Stochastic gap studies, ie, between say 15-period and 3-period %K.

But I don’t want to get too esoteric here because I believe and will always say that trading is not rocket science. It is mostly common sense. Mathematics is simply a tool to measure the bars and beats of the music so we know when to switch (2/4, 3/4 or 4/4) dance steps.

A lot of the data is from Wednesday, which was also reported yesterday. If it doesn’t show correctly (because I changed the date to a holiday), I may make some changes later.

Have a good day.

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Links & Charts

International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

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Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts

RSI > 70 (0)

RSI < 30 (12 of 36)

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International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.

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Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.

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Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.

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Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.

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Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.

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Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.

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Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.

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Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.

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Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .

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Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

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Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .

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US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KO	62.25	-0.54	-0.86%	1.45%	3.82%	3.44%	28.14%	15.21%	19.92%	32.47%
MMM	81.24	-0.87	-1.06%	1.28%	-2.44%	-5.64%	3.81%	-8.16%	-6.69%	-0.49%
MCD	57.33	-1.15	-1.97%	1.11%	-1.80%	0.31%	30.68%	18.28%	9.68%	36.31%
PG	72.26	-0.95	-1.30%	1.01%	4.09%	1.23%	11.96%	12.10%	14.21%	14.23%
MSFT	34.23	-0.35	-1.01%	0.88%	-3.63%	9.54%	14.63%	21.95%	10.24%	14.37%
XOM	87.04	-0.78	-0.89%	0.85%	-0.18%	-5.52%	17.45%	4.68%	4.13%	18.60%
JNJ	67.14	-0.50	-0.74%	0.37%	5.05%	4.19%	1.11%	8.87%	5.70%	0.81%
MO	72.41	-1.40	-1.90%	0.26%	0.60%	0.07%	11.54%	7.72%	2.20%	14.72%
HPQ	48.88	-0.68	-1.37%	-0.39%	-5.71%	-5.27%	17.44%	6.24%	8.09%	22.23%
DIS	31.50	-0.05	-0.16%	-1.13%	-5.97%	-10.15%	-7.89%	-5.38%	-13.56%	-5.21%
IBM	102.22	-1.20	-1.16%	-1.18%	-7.98%	-9.50%	5.09%	-6.25%	-4.50%	9.82%
MRK	56.52	-1.40	-2.42%	-1.36%	4.28%	0.57%	28.40%	13.56%	5.08%	27.82%
UTX	72.78	-1.54	-2.07%	-2.86%	-2.26%	-4.85%	15.87%	-0.22%	5.60%	10.56%
CAT	67.94	-0.34	-0.50%	-2.98%	-7.69%	-10.36%	11.09%	-8.54%	-9.23%	9.25%
HD	28.05	-0.45	-1.58%	-3.38%	-4.40%	-9.16%	-31.70%	-18.22%	-27.39%	-26.03%
DD	44.35	-0.65	-1.44%	-3.40%	-5.94%	-6.71%	-9.56%	-7.12%	-14.83%	-7.66%
WMT	44.86	-0.64	-1.41%	-3.55%	2.12%	2.26%	-5.66%	2.65%	-3.78%	-6.17%
VZ	41.95	-1.21	-2.80%	-3.61%	-2.67%	-5.56%	10.92%	0.58%	-1.39%	19.41%
AA	35.17	-0.21	-0.59%	-4.58%	-5.96%	-7.93%	19.91%	1.65%	-9.80%	20.49%
GE	37.17	-0.87	-2.29%	-4.72%	-4.89%	-7.61%	-2.11%	-3.08%	0.19%	3.83%
INTC	24.63	-0.89	-3.49%	-4.72%	-8.44%	-5.31%	21.03%	3.10%	8.84%	14.19%
T	37.45	-0.58	-1.53%	-4.80%	-3.13%	-9.87%	7.15%	-3.35%	-7.64%	14.35%
PFE	22.35	-0.37	-1.63%	-5.34%	-4.16%	-6.80%	-14.99%	-7.80%	-18.49%	-17.44%
BA	87.41	-0.45	-0.51%	-5.80%	-9.78%	-7.27%	-1.97%	-9.84%	-9.79%	-4.05%
HON	53.91	-0.60	-1.10%	-7.88%	-8.69%	-8.19%	19.53%	-2.02%	-7.53%	25.61%
AXP	54.34	-2.08	-3.69%	-8.05%	-1.86%	-7.80%	-9.97%	-8.12%	-15.45%	-8.53%
JPM	40.68	-0.95	-2.28%	-9.90%	-3.69%	-12.08%	-15.37%	-11.95%	-22.60%	-14.81%
AIG	51.33	-3.11	-5.71%	-13.63%	-11.35%	-19.60%	-28.86%	-22.00%	-28.70%	-28.55%
GM	26.39	0.10	0.38%	-15.42%	-22.27%	-31.79%	-10.39%	-15.09%	-15.63%	-19.10%
C	30.73	-0.67	-2.13%	-15.46%	-8.02%	-26.52%	-44.38%	-36.06%	-43.96%	-39.28%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.

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Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.

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Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.

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Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market

The tables I show in this section 2007_11_22 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.

Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLU	41.96	-0.35	-0.83%	0.94%	1.23%	4.90%	13.96%	8.14%	-1.89%	16.62%
XLP	28.25	-0.35	-1.22%	-0.74%	1.07%	1.18%	7.50%	5.21%	2.80%	9.62%
XLE	72.15	-1.60	-2.17%	-1.16%	-3.22%	-3.92%	27.52%	8.66%	5.48%	24.40%
IYH	69.33	-1.23	-1.74%	-2.12%	-0.49%	-2.20%	4.32%	2.83%	-3.99%	5.56%
XLY	32.97	-0.32	-0.96%	-3.77%	-5.26%	-9.30%	-14.41%	-8.37%	-17.31%	-13.40%
XLI	37.67	-0.64	-1.67%	-4.27%	-5.11%	-6.29%	6.93%	-1.90%	-2.08%	6.41%
SMH	31.43	-0.62	-1.93%	-4.50%	-6.60%	-8.77%	-6.37%	-15.42%	-15.28%	-10.33%
IYZ	28.22	-0.58	-2.01%	-4.79%	-6.37%	-12.66%	-4.86%	-12.41%	-16.41%	-0.56%
XLB	38.94	-0.78	-1.96%	-5.35%	-7.29%	-7.62%	12.51%	2.96%	-3.47%	12.64%
XLF	28.59	-0.45	-1.55%	-9.92%	-4.89%	-13.18%	-22.56%	-16.60%	-24.48%	-20.96%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.

Here are the Daily data charts:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Here are the Weekly data charts:

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review

Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
QQQQ	49.31	-0.59	-1.18%	-1.56%	-7.57%	-8.29%	14.04%	4.87%	4.89%	10.93%
EWJ	13.34	-0.24	-1.77%	-2.49%	-3.33%	-4.37%	-6.06%	-2.06%	-6.39%	1.52%
IEV	115.69	-2.18	-1.85%	-3.59%	-4.10%	-3.75%	9.55%	7.12%	-0.58%	12.39%
SPY	141.70	-2.94	-2.03%	-4.04%	-4.20%	-6.46%	0.23%	-2.23%	-7.14%	0.75%
EWU	24.35	-0.55	-2.21%	-4.88%	-5.36%	-6.78%	3.40%	4.46%	-3.72%	5.23%
TRF	65.50	-1.87	-2.78%	-5.46%	-6.71%	-6.43%	-26.03%	8.39%	-5.96%	-11.41%
EWC	31.21	-0.80	-2.50%	-6.16%	-12.21%	-7.72%	26.36%	8.41%	4.70%	22.68%
EWZ	76.65	-4.73	-5.81%	-8.59%	-6.38%	-2.36%	64.13%	42.16%	29.92%	73.61%
IFN	53.65	-3.85	-6.70%	-9.60%	-7.37%	-5.83%	18.33%	25.41%	24.33%	10.64%
FXI	163.51	-13.89	-7.83%	-12.88%	-13.40%	-20.81%	40.47%	26.75%	42.55%	74.22%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWJ Daily data:

Interactive EWJ Weekly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

Interactive EWU Weekly data:

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Canada’s equity market

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:

Interactive EWC Daily data:

Interactive EWC Weekly data:

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Bonds & Yields Review

Table 10: US Treasury Yields

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	2.97	3.17	3.27	3.82
6 Month	3.16	3.29	3.52	3.96
2 Year	2.99	3.19	3.50	3.85
3 Year	2.89	3.06	3.45	3.86
5 Year	3.34	3.54	3.82	4.08
10 Year	4.01	4.10	4.25	4.41
30 Year	4.46	4.50	4.60	4.69

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.23	3.27	3.31	3.38
2yr AAA	3.27	3.29	3.31	3.39
2yr A	3.39	3.41	3.43	3.49
5yr AAA	3.38	3.40	3.44	3.47
5yr AA	3.31	3.29	3.41	3.40
5yr A	3.49	3.51	3.54	3.57
10yr AAA	3.80	3.85	3.86	3.75
10yr AA	3.68	3.73	3.90	3.65
10yr A	4.02	4.08	4.09	3.87
20yr AAA	4.44	4.43	4.46	4.40
20yr AA	4.59	4.61	4.65	4.59
20yr A	4.78	5.00	4.99	4.40

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	4.15	4.31	4.47	4.61
2yr A	4.28	4.49	4.69	4.77
5yr AAA	4.53	4.61	4.67	4.88
5yr AA	4.72	4.89	5.09	5.06
5yr A	4.55	4.70	4.95	5.02
10yr AAA	5.13	5.16	5.18	5.33
10yr AA	5.54	5.59	5.76	5.68
10yr A	5.54	5.69	5.74	5.62
20yr AAA	5.54	5.56	5.62	5.71
20yr AA	5.73	5.76	5.87	5.88
20yr A	6.00	6.02	6.08	6.05

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Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

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US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

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Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TLT	93.45	0.54	0.58%	2.22%	3.01%	2.67%	4.92%	7.09%	7.18%	3.48%
TIP	106.76	0.89	0.84%	1.98%	2.54%	3.50%	7.59%	5.88%	6.85%	6.78%
IEF	87.17	0.68	0.79%	1.81%	2.37%	2.36%	5.43%	4.31%	5.93%	4.70%
AGG	101.77	0.77	0.76%	1.13%	1.45%	0.65%	1.86%	2.53%	2.13%	1.24%
SHY	82.49	0.25	0.30%	0.94%	1.12%	1.23%	3.06%	1.66%	3.04%	2.87%
CFC	9.420	-0.860	-8.37%	-29.54%	-30.89%	-31.89%	-77.63%	-56.77%	-76.73%	-76.39%
FNM	29.23	0.98	3.47%	-38.87%	-41.29%	-47.99%	-51.17%	-57.63%	-53.82%	-49.51%
FRE	26.00	-0.74	-2.77%	-41.16%	-42.39%	-49.07%	-61.70%	-59.48%	-61.48%	-61.49%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts

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Commodities Review

$CRB Index

Open Futures Contracts

Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

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Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

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Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot silver chart for the week

Interactive daily data

Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.

Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

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Spot platinum chart for the past three days

Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.

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Spot palladium chart for the week

Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.

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Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
KGC	17.73	-0.29	-1.61%	-0.39%	-11.39%	2.19%	55.25%	53.77%	34.01%	52.32%
AEM	50.78	-0.95	-1.84%	-0.86%	-9.93%	-2.12%	30.47%	26.44%	44.02%	27.14%
GG	32.86	-0.09	-0.27%	-1.17%	-9.38%	2.21%	20.19%	50.53%	37.26%	19.58%
NEM	50.56	-0.49	-0.96%	-1.25%	-6.73%	9.53%	14.39%	25.33%	28.16%	12.08%
AUY	13.18	-0.23	-1.72%	-1.79%	-10.03%	-5.86%	6.89%	32.46%	-4.42%	18.31%
MDG	36.46	-0.41	-1.11%	-1.94%	-9.64%	-5.54%	38.68%	42.98%	42.87%	29.06%
ABX	41.74	-0.56	-1.32%	-2.06%	-9.73%	-0.36%	39.93%	30.11%	37.89%	43.49%
BVN	53.36	-0.03	-0.06%	-6.83%	-12.38%	2.79%	93.26%	49.76%	61.70%	95.67%
GFI	17.08	-0.36	-2.06%	-7.07%	-5.64%	-4.85%	-6.82%	21.39%	-1.56%	-1.16%

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN

Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

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The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

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The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

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Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.

Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

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Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Daily British Pound Index:

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Daily Japanese Yen Index:

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Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

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Wrap up:

Irrespective of national holidays, the international capital markets are trading five days a week. All prices are involved. No country is an island.

Yes, I do think there will be a rally on today. No, I think that will last long and I expect that prices will be falling by the following Friday.

I wrote all this yesterday, but then I only think my crystal ball was working. LOL

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