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November 16, 2007
Cara's Daily Report, Fri., Nov 16, 2007
From an intra-day high of 14280 on Oct 11 to a low of 12910 a month later, the evidence clearly shows the Bears have seized control of the US equity market.
The DJIA (-120.96), S&P 500 (-19.43), and Nasdaq Composite (-25.81) sagged into the closing bell on Thursday.
Despite the $CRB running up from about 310 to 350 for September and October, the US Administration is clinging onto Dept of B.S. data that say that the Consumer Price Index increases are modest and controllable. Traders are scoffing.
On the earnings front, Barclays PLC (BCS BARC.L) reported charges and write-downs totaling $2.67 billion at Barclays Capital. Tyco International. (TYC) reported a -86 pct drop in fiscal 4Q net income to $181 million vs $1.25 billion a year ago. JC Penney (JCP) reported a -9.1 pct drop in fiscal 3Q net income to $261 million vs $287 million a year earlier.
On the deals front, Kraft Foods (KFT) agreed to sell its Post cereals business to Ralcorp Holdings (RAH) for ~$1.6 billion.
The Wall Street Journal cited unnamed sources as saying Rio Tinto, which received an unsolicited bid from BHP, is considering a counter-bid, which is referred to as a "Pac-Man" defence. While BHP shares lifted and RTP dropped yesterday, traders believe that Rio would be unsuccessful.
The US mortgage market is still roiled. According to Wells Fargo (WFC) CEO John Stumpf, the US housing slump is the worst since the Great Depression and is far from over. Countrywide (CFC) dropped a further -8.68 pct yesterday to 12.21. Fannie -10.00 pct to 43.04, and Freddie -5.27 pct to 41.86 were also hit sharply in a near-panic sell-off.
There is a pull-back occurring in the oil market with the December e-miNYâs priced at 93.43. The StockCharts data for $WTIC (EOD continuous contracts) show a close of 92.67. Yesterday, StockCharts had an incorrect chart, as I noted at the time.
$GOLD futures slumped to a closing price of 788.75, down -25.95 (-3.19 pct) on the day.
Spot gold this morning (7:40am ET) is at 790.80, down about -12 from yesterday at this time, and down -18 in 48 hours.
Silver took an even bigger percentage hit, while copper had a small bounce.
Goldminer shares dropped a lot yesterday, about the same amount as the previous day, falling -8.48 (-4.75 pct) to 169.99 for the Philly goldminer index ($XAU). That is quite a drop from the 195.50 cycle high just six days earlier.
The $USD index is trading (7:15am ET) at 76.072, which has gained a lot of strength from Wednesday noon.
The US Treasury market was progressively strong during the day as traders sought safe haven from equities.
The European bourses are down close to, but under, -1.0 pct this morning. Hong kong was down -4.0 pct overnight, while most of the Asia-Pacific markets dropped between -1 and -2 pct. The Nikkei 225 closed down -1.6 pct today. There is a nervous tone throughout the global equity markets.
For what itâs worth, traders are eying Starbucks (SBUX) this morning, with all kinds of news yesterday, including a huge +35 pct increase in reported net income for the Q, a reported dip in US traffic, a gloomier outlook for 2008, and the resignation of the Exec VP for partner resources.
If there is one appliance I cannot do without, its my cappuccino maker. Hit the button, and fresh-brewed in less than a minute. Iâm headed to the kitchen now.
Comments & Outlook
Yesterday morning, I reported:
âThe $USD index is trading now at 75.883, which has gained strength from (Wednesday) noon. (Wednesday), the close was 75.83.... Regardless, it appears to me that the $USD is ready to rally back through the 76 level soon, and then through 77 next week. The Canadian Loonie, British Pound and Japanese Yen have been falling for five, four and three trading days respectively. The Euro at 146.69 at the close yesterday has only been held up close to its all-time record high of 147.19 because of the widespread enthusiasm for Gold, which is about to abate, significantly. So watch for the Euro to drop like the other non $USD currencies here, as the $USD rallies. Since the Euro comprises almost half the $USD weighting, watch the $USD sling-shot higher.
By the end of the session, the $USD had closed above 76 (+0.27 pct) and headed higher, and the Euro at 146.16 (-0.36 pct) and headed lower. $GOLD dropped -27.40 (-3.4 pct) to close at 787.30. The Cdn Dollar fell -2.0 pct to 101.72, the Aussie Dollar dropped -1.5 pct, and the British Pound slid a further -0.63 pct to 204.36.
This morning the $USD is rallying further, and is presently at 76.13. Spot Gold and Silver is flat to slightly positive, so far. I expect further weakness through the session.
But, you know, despite the mounting evidence of a slowing economy and the âworst housing slump since the Great Depression,â I note that for the past six sessions, the daily low in the DJIA is consistently in a band of 12910 to 13160, so the Bulls seem to have drawn a line in the sand.
Today may tell us whether there really is much fight left in the old Bull. If there is, then precious metal prices will be the beneficiary. Itâs just that, on balance, I think the Bull is dead from the ankles up, and soon to go down.
Here is an index you donât want to see your bank on the wrong side of. Barclays (BCS, BARC.L), which at the start of the month had given a glimpse of its SIV problems, taking the stock down from 51 to 38 in seven sessions, before bouncing back to almost 45 on Tuesday, yesterday saw Fitch Ratings lower its rating outlook for the bank from stable to negative. A rating downgrade is likely in the next one to two years, says Fitch. Sayonara says Bill.
And if traders want to see how bad the SIV problem is at these banks, Britainâs Northern Rock (NRK.L) has now received up to eight stink bids for buying all or some of their assets. I donât think anybody is going to do a take-over of shares and get stuck with a bankruptcy. But, I guess there are Bulk Sales act considerations here too.
Solvency is the issue today, not credit market woes. Fraudulent Liar Loans is what this mess is about, and I think thatâs stopped getting worse. At least, the practices of making bad loans and syndicating them to unwitting buyers has stopped. Now the lawyers and prosecutors take over.
So there are no credit market woes. Mortgages are available to people and companies with good credit. Letâs keep our focus on the financial institutions (HB&B and hedge and pension funds) that have been left holding the bag.
So, which is the next one to go down? For that, weâll have to wait til the filing because these people, who btw are sworn to transparency, arenât going to tell us unless they have a gun pointed at their head.
The game now is âSurvival of the Biggest Liarsâ.
Links & Charts
International Economics Review
Reporting of consumer and producer price inflation by the US Administration ranges from the sublime to the ridiculous. This week was no different. Maybe we ought to start our own index.
The other econ news shows a deteriorating US economy. Estimated US weekly jobless claims are now at their highest level since April, up 20,000 to 339,000, suggesting problems with the labor market. Also, the NY Fed Manufacturing Index fell M/M from 28.75 to 27.37.
Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts
International Equity Markets Review
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US Equity Markets Review
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
Table: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
The Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Sector ETF Summary for the US equity market
The tables I show in this section 2007_11_15 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETFâs) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETFâs â up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETFâs.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:


Canadaâs equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 3.19 | 3.27 | 3.28 | 4.10 |
| 6 Month | 3.40 | 3.52 | 3.54 | 4.15 |
| 2 Year | 3.32 | 3.50 | 3.46 | 4.12 |
| 3 Year | 3.22 | 3.45 | 3.41 | 4.13 |
| 5 Year | 3.67 | 3.82 | 3.81 | 4.33 |
| 10 Year | 4.14 | 4.25 | 4.28 | 4.64 |
| 30 Year | 4.53 | 4.60 | 4.66 | 4.90 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.31 | 3.31 | 3.33 | 3.43 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.31 | 3.31 | 3.32 | 3.44 |
| 2yr A | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.34 | 3.46 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.46 | 3.44 | 3.46 | 3.55 |
| 5yr AA | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.54 |
| 5yr A | 3.56 | 3.54 | 3.57 | 3.76 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.86 | 3.86 | 3.88 | 3.84 |
| 10yr AA | 3.89 | 3.90 | 3.91 | 3.78 |
| 10yr A | 4.09 | 4.09 | 4.11 | 3.97 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.49 | 4.46 | 4.46 | 4.45 |
| 20yr AA | 4.68 | 4.65 | 4.66 | 4.65 |
| 20yr A | 5.13 | 4.99 | 4.47 | 4.46 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.30 | 4.47 | 4.43 | 4.80 |
| 2yr A | 4.56 | 4.69 | 4.64 | 4.93 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.60 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 4.83 |
| 5yr AA | 4.96 | 5.09 | 5.11 | 5.19 |
| 5yr A | 4.86 | 4.95 | 5.00 | 5.25 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.06 | 5.18 | 5.26 | 5.45 |
| 10yr AA | 5.63 | 5.76 | 5.70 | 5.68 |
| 10yr A | 5.74 | 5.74 | 5.88 | 5.77 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.65 | 5.62 | 5.66 | 5.87 |
| 20yr AA | 5.79 | 5.87 | 5.95 | 6.06 |
| 20yr A | 6.10 | 6.08 | 6.12 | 6.21 |
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.

US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily data
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the past three days
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
Spot palladium chart for the week
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the weekâs trading in the $USD.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:

Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily British Pound Index:

Daily Japanese Yen Index:

Daily Canadian Dollar Index:

Wrap up:
Iâll take some time off today for a lunch with WHY Resources.
Iâll also be meeting with an associate about investor advocacy issues and what he is doing about it in a most constructive way. To be announced in Canada probably in February, perhaps this will become a model for the global capital market.
Have a great day.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 16, 2007 08:04:39 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market








