« Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thur., Nov. 1, 2007, 9:27am ET | Main | Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Fri., Nov. 2, 2007, 8:09am ET »
November 2, 2007
Cara's Daily Report and Commentary, Fri., Nov 2, 2007
The Bears assumed control from the outset of trading yesterday. There were three reasons: Citi, Exxon and autos. This morning Asia-Pacific and European markets are tracking yesterday’s prices in the US, and traders are now wondering if there can be a change in outlook at the 9:30am ET opening bell.
On Thursday, traders dismissed the -25 basis point cut in both the Fed and Discount rates following the FOMC meeting of Oct 30-31, figuring there must be reasons for such cuts. Yesterday, some of those reasons became obvious: (i) growing concern over Citigroup's depleted capital ratios due to credit market losses, (ii) ExxonMobil (XOM) reported a -10 pct drop in 3Q net income to $9.41 billion vs $10.49 billion a year earlier, due to lower refining and chemical margins (ie, cost inflation), and (iii) dismal new car sales on the US, due to lower discretionary income of consumers.
Consequently, the DJIA (-362.14), S&P (-40.94), and Nasdaq (-64.29) got crushed. The Citi news served up huge losses in the Banks ($BKX -5.36 pct), Broker-Dealers ($XBD -4.88 pct), and Insurance ($INSR -3.48 pct).
Credit Suisse (CS) reported 3Q net income dropped -31 pct as investment banking income was hit by SwF2.2 billion write-downs of leveraged loan commitments, residential mortgages and CDO's. Also on the earnings front, Sprint Nextel (S) 3Q net income plunged -77 pct to $64 million vs $279 million a year earlier, as it continues to lose high-margin subscribers.
GM reported Oct US sales lifted +3.4 pct from a year ago while Toyota announced sales increased +4.5 pct, increasing its lead over Ford as the #2 US auto maker.
US jobless claims (seasonally-adjusted) fell -6,000 to 327,000, but the 4-week average rose by 1,750.
The Commerce Dept reported that US Personal income for Sept rose +0.4 pct while spending slowed. Retailers ($RLX) closed down -3.16 pct.
The Fed conducted 3 repo's totaling $41 billion, a huge injection of liquidity into the system.
Crude Oil futures dropped a bit to close below $94/bbl. Gold futures dropped a bit as well as the USD posted gains against the Euro. The trade-weighted USD Index ($USD) gained +0.16 pct. The Philly Gold Index ($XAU) dropped -3.77 pct.
Treasury instruments made huge gains for flight-to-safety reasons as stock prices plunged. Yields dropped between -2 and -3 1/4 pct.
International Economics Review
Yesterday, in addition to the Fed rate cut, the Commerce Department reported 3Q GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted +3.9 pct annual rate due to surging exports and strong consumer spending that outweighed the housing drag.
The employment cost index for the 3Q rose +0.8 pct as US labor cost growth slowed.
Today at 8:30am ET (1230 GMT) the crucial US economic data being reported is the October US Jobs Report “and certain media (they know who they are) will be using it to jack the emotions of traders. We traders on the other hand must get a grip. We must focus on prices”.
Economists' consensus (median forecast) is for a gain of 80,000 jobs after an increase of 100,000 in the previous month. But, with the Fed having to pump in a reported +$41 billion into the system yesterday, does anybody really think this data from the US Labor Dept will be unbiased and accurate. After all, these numbers are just estimates to be later revised. It is the media spin and the reaction to it that we need to watch.
According to Econoday,
Nonfarm payroll employment in September came in relatively strong compared to recent months with a +110,000 gain, following a revised rise of +89,000 in August and a +93,000 boost in July. But with initial claims on a recent uptrend, job growth could slow notably in September. Wage costs are still a concern for the Fed as average hourly earnings increased +0.4 pct in September, following a +0.3 pct rise the month before. But the civilian unemployment rate edged up to 4.7 pct in September from 4.6 pct in August, indicating some marginal loosening of labor market tightness. The Fed's next FOMC meeting is on December 11 and this jobs report and the one next month will play a key role in whether the Fed cuts interest rates in December.
Although the US authorities point to the health of the employment situation, most traders understand that 180,000 net new jobs are required monthly for the US economy to grow. Moreover, it is the composition of the jobs that is important. Adding govt workers and part-time workers is not as important as higher-paid, skilled manufacturing workers. Alas, the US has been losing these jobs as corporate boards have decided to move plants to low-cost countries.
Ninety minutes later (10:00am ET 1400 GMT), the US Factory Orders for September is reported. The consensus M/M change is -0.5 pct. Per Econoday, “Factory orders fell back -3.3 pct in August with weakness in both nondurables and durables. But more recently, durables continued to fall further in September with a -1.7 pct drop, following a revised -5.3 pct decline in August.”
As Econoday states,
The orders data show how busy factories will be in coming months as manufacturers work to fill those orders. This report provides insight to the demand for not only hard goods such as refrigerators and cars, but nondurables such as cigarettes and apparel. In addition to new orders, analysts monitor unfilled orders, an indicator of the backlog in production. Shipments reveal current sales. Inventories give a handle on the strength of current and future production. All in all, this report tells investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy and therefore a major influence on their investments.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks .
There were a number of analyst downgrades in the past two days for the Cara 100 companies: SLW, C, CCJ, GRMN, VIP, UBS, TCK (by Paradigm) and IMO. Canaccord and Haywood both reiterated or upgraded to Buy on the TCK.
International Equity Markets Review
In the past hour (7:40am ET), European markets (FTSE, DAX and CAC) are negative. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed although Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index was up +0.79 pct on the session.
Europe
Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.
Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.
Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.
Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.
Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.
Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.
Asia-Pacific
Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.
Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.
Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .
Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .
Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .
Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .
Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .
US and the Americas
Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.
Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.
Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis of the Cara 100 company stocks
US Equity Markets Review
The Dow 30 average dropped from the previous close at 13930.01 to about 13730 in minutes, then stayed weak all day, finally dropping into the close at 13567.87, a loss on the day of -362 points (-2.67 pct).
Yesterday, I wrote that traders were worried that the axe was soon to fall, and that the
action between 2:15 pm and 3:15 pm ET on the prior day “served to take out stops above and below the market, and to push traders into doing the opposite of what they had planned. So, it is key to stick to the plan.”
I had pointed out for several weeks that “selling into strength the stocks in your portfolio that have already had a Sell Alert and then a subsequent big run-up in price to a second Sell Alert is usually the right decision.”
NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart
The Nasdaq Composite lost -64.29 points (-2.30 pct) to close at 2794.83, following a day where the Fed rate cut juiced the Nasdaq by +1.48 pct.
There is some technical support at 2725 should there be a further pull-back. Beyond that, the Bears will be in full control. The only safety will be in put options or outright selling early to avoid a possible panic.
The US equity market Sector ETF Summary
The tables I show in this section 2007_11_01 are for ten (GICS) Sector Index Funds (ETF’s) only, but they cover the full spectrum of the US equity market.
Table 1: Cara ETF List is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF’s – up to 30 in total.
For a list of components to any ETF, go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF’s.
The Google Finance lists provided by “wavesmash” and “MichaelNYU” in yesterday’s Discourse was much appreciated, and these will be added to the blog and to the Daily Reports asap.
All sectors lost over -1.0 pct. The three weakest sectors on Thursday were Financials (XLF -4.89 pct), Basic Materials (XLB -3.47 pct) and Energy (XLE -2.93 pct).
Technology (XLK) was down a relatively small -1.09 pct. Yes, it was an abysmal day for the Bulls.
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Bonds & Yields Review
Table 10: US Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Month | 3.66 | 3.77 | 3.79 | 3.81 |
| 6 Month | 3.77 | 3.92 | 3.86 | 3.97 |
| 2 Year | 3.75 | 3.94 | 3.77 | 3.97 |
| 3 Year | 3.74 | 3.91 | 3.76 | 3.98 |
| 5 Year | 4.01 | 4.16 | 4.02 | 4.19 |
| 10 Year | 4.35 | 4.47 | 4.38 | 4.52 |
| 30 Year | 4.64 | 4.74 | 4.68 | 4.77 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 3.33 | 3.36 | 3.32 | 3.41 |
| 2yr AAA | 3.31 | 3.35 | 3.34 | 3.47 |
| 2yr A | 3.33 | 3.37 | 3.36 | 3.45 |
| 5yr AAA | 3.45 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 3.49 |
| 5yr AA | 3.47 | 3.42 | 3.38 | 3.47 |
| 5yr A | 3.56 | 3.61 | 3.59 | 3.71 |
| 10yr AAA | 3.83 | 3.78 | 3.72 | 3.79 |
| 10yr AA | 3.74 | 3.74 | 3.68 | 3.77 |
| 10yr A | 4.06 | 4.01 | 3.85 | 3.92 |
| 20yr AAA | 4.36 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.47 |
| 20yr AA | 4.56 | 4.59 | 4.55 | 4.66 |
| 20yr A | 4.37 | 4.40 | 4.37 | 4.47 |
| Maturity | Yield | Yesterday | Last Week | Last Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr AA | 4.58 | 4.73 | 4.56 | 4.75 |
| 2yr A | 4.75 | 4.83 | 4.71 | 4.91 |
| 5yr AAA | 4.79 | 4.91 | 4.77 | 4.93 |
| 5yr AA | 5.02 | 5.13 | 4.98 | 5.07 |
| 5yr A | 5.04 | 5.14 | 4.97 | 5.15 |
| 10yr AAA | 5.23 | 5.34 | 5.21 | 5.42 |
| 10yr AA | 5.54 | 5.63 | 5.50 | 5.67 |
| 10yr A | 5.66 | 5.77 | 5.62 | 5.71 |
| 20yr AAA | 5.72 | 5.76 | 5.65 | 5.89 |
| 20yr AA | 5.87 | 5.94 | 5.85 | 6.27 |
| 20yr A | 6.06 | 6.10 | 5.98 | 6.23 |
Yesterday, for a second straight day, bond prices surged and yields plunged. A day earlier, it was questionable econ data; but yesterday, traders clearly were taking the safe-haven route as they fled stocks.
Important to understand, however, is that stagflation takes down stock and bond prices together. The present actions of the Fed (ie, cutting rates) is what is driving the bond market, but the resultant drop in the USD and rise in inflation will ensure that soon these rates will have to adjust higher, which will hurt bonds at some point. The Professor heading the Fed cannot have it both ways.
Here is the $USB 30-year Treasury Bond chart.
Interactive Daily data charts:


Interactive Chart of Interest rates and bond yields.
US Bond Funds -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
SHY Daily data series chart:
IEF Daily data series chart:
TLT Daily data series chart:
AGG Daily data series chart:
LQD Daily data series chart:
TIP Daily data series chart:
Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Countrywide Financial (CFC -7.02 pct), Fannie Mae (FNM -4.45 pct) and Freddie Mac (FRE -5.36 pct) were hammered as traders now feel that the credit markets will soon have to mark down the mortgage-backed holdings by possibly trillions. There is even a concern now that maybe Fannie and Freddie are no longer solvent, and that the US government will have to bail out these Govt Sponsored Agencies (GSA).
Countrywide has dropped from 42 in May to a current 14.43 (13.89 low a few days ago). The writing is on the wall for Angelo Mozilo.
Consumer Finance -USA -- Interactive Daily Data Charts
Commodities Review
$CRB lost -1.82 (-0.52 pct) to 349.19.
Interactive Chart of Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Oil Review
December Crude Oil (e-MiNY) futures are presently 93.90/bbl.
Here is the e-miNY Dec-07 Crude Oil chart.
Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Crude Oil:

Gold & Precious Metals Review
Yesterday $GOLD futures opened at 799.40, ran up to 802.50 and closed at 793.70. The Fed action of adding +$41 billion in reserves was the spark.
Spot Gold this morning is presently (6:20am ET) at 790.40, about 1.20 lower than at this time yesterday.
Today’s econ data (Jobs Report and Factory Orders) could tell us the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in December for a third straight time. If that is indicated, then gold will pop once again. If it is unlikely due to stronger econ data, then Gold will probably pull back here.
Interactive Chart of Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot silver is 14.16 at 6:27am ET today, down -0.13 from yesterday at this time. It is down sharply from the yesterday’s 14.46 opening and subsequent 14.51 high.
The econ data this morning will be key to today’s trading. Strong numbers will pull silver down.
Spot silver chart for the week
Interactive daily charts for the silver miners, royalty companies and bullion ETF
Interactive Chart of Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Silver Bullion index.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Spot platinum chart for the week
Spot platinum today is at 1438.00 (6:32am ET).
$PLAT closed yesterday at 1450.80, gaining +3.20 (+0.22 pct).
Interactive Chart of Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Platinum metal index.
The spot price of palladium this morning (6:33am ET) is 365.00, down -3.00 since yesterday at this time.
Spot palladium chart for the week
$PALL closed yesterday at 380.65, up +1.65 (+0.44 pct) on the day.
The Weekly chart shows an indication that Palladium is struggling to surpass the previous intermediate-term cycle peaks of 390.45 (Apr 2007) and 410.89 (May 2006). I think the price is extended to the upside here, and that a test of the 320 level is likely over the next three months.
Interactive Chart of Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Interactive chart of the Palladium metal index.
$COPPER closed at 336.25 on the contracts, down -11.05 (-3.18 pct) on the day. In early October, the price hit a cycle high of 378.00.
From the Weekly chart you can see there are a series of intermediate-term cycle highs at 394.90 (May 2006), 380.70 (Apr-May 2007), 374.80 (July 2007) and 378 this month.
I think the North American, Western Europe and Japanese economies are too weak, and the production of copper too high to support a break-out to higher prices. As I opined earlier, the 2007 low of 238.50 could be tested in the next six months.
Interactive Chart of Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:


Interactive Chart of Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:
Interactive chart of the Copper metal index.
Table 12: Senior gold equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:
NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY AUY KGC BVN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO RGLD GOLD CDE GRS
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
CBJ SSRI SIL NG KRY UXG GRZ TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:
SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW MGN
Interactive Daily data
Interactive Weekly data
Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:
Yesterday, the Philly Gold & Silver Miners Index dropped -7.10 (-3.77 pct) to close at 181.00. The market is back to where it was before the Fed rate cut.
I still believe that prices are now extended on the upside. The risk of a pull-back is very high. I would be watching the market closely here.
No change in my recent outlook.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Interactive Chart of Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.
Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly and Daily data charts:
GDX Daily data:

GDX Weekly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD. Yes, just like GDX on the AMEX, you can trade XGD on Toronto.
Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:
Interactive Chart of XGD Daily data:

Interactive Chart of XGD Weekly data:

Forex Review
Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.
The $USD index is weak this morning, trading at 76.501, down from the open at 76.751.
Interactive Chart of Daily U.S. Dollar Index:
Yesterday, the Euro Index was mostly flat, closing at 144.50. The cycle high of 144.71 occurred the previous day.
Interactive Chart of Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:
International Equity Market USD-denominated ETF Review
Table 13: International equities via the USD-denominated ETF perspective
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ
Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


U.K. equity market ETF
Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Daily data charts:
EWU Daily data:

Canada’s equity market
Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Daily data charts:


US Equity Markets Review
Table 14: Dow 30 List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.billcara2.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.
AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM
Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Billcara2.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)
Wrap up:
Many of these charts have been wrong because I discovered that the Mac command F for global replace is different from the Windows global replace. Once again, I have to spend lots of time getting the new protocol down pat. Not so difficult, just time consuming. I’m sure there will be more errors. Check the dates of the charts, please.
Today in the market is likely to be another bad day for the bulls. The Winds of the Trading Wars have clearly shifted. I have been warning for a couple weeks, and particularly yesterday morning. Today is more of the same. I just don’t see how the spinmeisters in Washington and New York can pull another rabbit out of the hat.
The US economy has fallen and can’t get up.









