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November 19, 2007

Cara's Daily Report and Commentary, Mon., Nov 19, 2007

Markets Re-cap

December DJIA futures are presently (7:20am ET) down -45 to 13145. European bourses are weak, presently down close to -1.0 pct on average.

Asia-Pacific equity markets were all soft today with the exception of Australia, which was up +1.15 pct. The Nikkei 225 dropped -0.74 pct, Shanghai composite -0.87 pct, and the BSE 30 of India -0.33 pct.

The USD futures have opened stronger this morning, trading higher against the Euro, Pound, and Yen. At 7:00am ET, the $USD index is up +0.09 pct to 75.86 after a low of 75.671.

At 6:50am ET Jan-08 Crude Oil (e-MiNY) futures are 94.65/bbl, which is up from a low on Thursday of about 91.6.

Spot Gold this morning is presently (7:20am ET) at 787.4, which is down -2 (-0.25 pct) since the midnight open. Spot Silver is at 14.48, down -0.06 (-0.41 pct). Copper March-08 futures opened weaker, now down -1.78 pct to 3.142.

The precious metals prices have not rebounded to the extent that Crude Oil contracts have since the crash on Thursday morning.

Comments & Outlook

While the markets are sending mixed signals for trading this week, and trading volume will decline due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, traders can no longer ignore the economic condition of the US.

The primary economic drivers, being consumer spending and business and residential investment, are trending down in the US. There are new reports that the economic slowdown is beginning to affect the commercial real estate sector.

Moreover, the US Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reported on Thursday that year-on-year, the overall Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) jumped from +2.8 pct in September to +3.5 pct in October, but the current yield on the two-year Treasury Notes is now down to +3.33 pct and falling.

What this means is that inflation in the US is destroying wealth today, the implications of which are very serious.

After the 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate is received on Jan 31-08, I believe that the growth of the US economy will be seen by all as frail, weak, fragile, vulnerable... pick your word.

I can only conclude that the US economy will soon be officially dubbed as Stagflationary. Unfortunately, I have never seen an equity market flourish at such a time. In fact, I know stagflation to be a portfolio killer.

Today, there are economics reports that indicate the US housing crisis has extended to the UK and Europe. Anne Picker, Chief Economist at Econoday, also addresses that in her Weekly Perspective report (see link below), which I recommend reading.


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.

Econoday International Perspective.


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US and the Americas

Here is the latest session data for the exchanges of the Americas.


Here is the latest chart for the Brazilian Bovespa stock exchange in Sao Paulo.


Here is the latest session data for the Toronto Stock Exchange composite index.


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart


Oil Review

Here is the e-miNY Jan-08 Crude Oil chart.

Interactive Chart of Daily Crude Oil:


Gold & Precious Metals Review

Spot gold chart for the week


Spot silver chart for the week


Forex Review

Here is the chart of the week’s trading in the $USD.


Wrap up:

Thank you to all the new members of this community who are freely participating in the Discourse. As you can tell, there are members from all over the world. Your ideas, opinions, experience and expertise are welcome here.

By staying connected 24 hours a day from around the world, we can work toward a greater understanding of capital markets, with immediate benefits in our personal portfolio performance.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on November 19, 2007 07:39:08 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market